author: niplav, created: 2021-08-21, modified: 2021-10-18, language: english, status: abandoned, importance: 1, confidence: fiction

As a response to Applied Divinity Studies 2021, I wrote a long comment on /r/slatestarcodex, taking the premise more serious. This is a formatted and revised version of that comment.

Life Improvements in 2030


I now disavow this text. Most of it diverges strongly from the style of Applied Divinity Studies' or Gwern's original post, focussing way too much on big developments and not enough on small-scale noticeable changes.

Noooooo, this is boring ;-). Let's actually speculate about (not so ordinary) life-improvements from a cozy future.

These are not predictions. Predictions would require confidence intervals or probability distributions, these are speculations and mostly fiction. I also expect to not endorse ~3/4 of these after thinking about them for a couple more hours (I don't endorse some of these right now, and think this list is too optimistic overall). If you want to have an accurate view of the future, the joint distribution of community predictions on Metaculus is a better start.

Things That Have Gone Well

Things that Didn't Pan out as Hoped