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author: niplav, created: 2022-04-04, modified: 2022-08-07, language: english, status: notes, importance: 7, confidence: highly likely

Beginnings of a research agenda about judgmental forecasting.

Forecasters: What Do They Know? Do They Know Things?? Let's Find Out!

Judgmental forecasting is a fairly recent and (in my humble opinion) fairly under-researched & under-appreciated human endeavour & field of research, with some low-hanging fruit (which are getting picked almost as fast as I can write them up).

The Five Horsemen of Hard Forecasting

In general, judgmental forecasting methods operate best in areas with fast feedback loops, large existing datasets (or at least good reference classes for base rates) and continuous historical trends.

We can therefore identify the four horsemen of hard forecasting:

We can use these categories as guideposts: How bad are these as problems? What approaches have been proposed/tried/implemented so far? If we can improve one of them without harming our ability to perform well on the others, we have made progress, if we improve several in tandem, that's even better.

How Good Are We At forecasting?

How Can We Become Better At Forecasting?

Scoring Rules

Difficult Types of Questions

How Can We Ask Better Forecasting Questions?

Other Questions