Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 43% | 63% | 71% | 83% | 93% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 373 | 575 | 496 | 412 | 690 | 110 | 2656 |
Displaying all predictions made by gwern. Filter by:
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By 2020, there will have been at least 5 assassinations that were predicted by a prediction market (and known as such). ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2020-01-01.
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GJP: #1097 Will Tunisia officially announce an extension of its current state of emergency before 1 April 2012? ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-06; known on 2012-04-02; judged right by gwern on 2012-04-04.
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GJP: #1099 Before 1 April 2012, will Al-Saadi Gaddafi be extradited to Libya? ( 45% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-06; known on 2012-04-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
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GJP: #1101 Will Laurent Lamothe be ratified as Haiti’s Prime Minister before 1 April 2012? ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-06; known on 2012-04-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
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GJP: #1103 Before 1 April 2012, will the Sudan and South Sudan governments officially announce an agreement on oil transit fees? ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-06; known on 2012-04-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
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GJP: #1104 Will Yemeni government forces regain control of the towns of Jaar and Zinjibar from Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) before 1 April 2012? ( 30% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-06; known on 2012-04-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
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GJP: #1102 Will Ireland ratify the European Fiscal Compact in a referendum vote before 1 October 2012? ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-06; known on 2012-10-02; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-09-19.
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GJP: #1098 Will a foreign or multinational military force fire on, invade, or enter Syria between 6 March 2012 and 31 December 2012? ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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GJP: #1100 Will the Colombian government and FARC commence official talks before 1 January 2013? ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-06; known on 2013-01-02; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-02.
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An off-planet Playboy club is operational before 2030. ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-05; known on 2030-01-01.
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An off-planet Playboy Club is operational before 2020. ( 5% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Bitcoinica will be hacked before 2013, resulting in at least partial loss of funds (whether or not customers are affected). ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-10; known on 2013-01-01.
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[Russia] Vladimir Putin will receive at least 60% of the vote (official election results). ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2012-03-02; known on 2012-03-09; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-03-05.
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Twitter will report profits for every quarter in 2011. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2012-03-01.
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A Republican or Democratic candidate who publicly espouses Scientology will trade >=5% at any point on the Intrade market for his party's Presidential candidate nomination. ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-01; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-03-01.
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First-year sales of Rowling's new book will be less than 40% of the first-year sales of Deathly Hallows (44 million according to Wikipedia.) ( 77% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-29; known on 2013-12-20; judged right by Grognor on 2013-12-24.
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Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030 ( 84% confidence; 27 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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Conditional on competing in figure skating in the 2014 Winter Olympics, Yuna Kim will win a gold medal ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-02-28; known on 2014-02-23; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-20.
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Yuna Kim will compete in figure skating in the 2014 Winter Olympics ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-02-28; known on 2014-02-23; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-19.
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iPad 3 will have a quad-core CPU ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-14; known on 2012-03-08; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-03-07.
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I will finish reading the EML archives by 2012. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-25; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-27.
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2020: Less than 50% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges. ( 20% confidence; 10 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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2020: Less than 20% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges. ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-01-02.
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2025: Less than 50% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges. ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-25; known on 2025-01-01.
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2025: Less than 20% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-25; known on 2025-01-01.
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Hanson and Yudkowsky publish the AI FOOM debate (EDIT: in a peer-reviewed, academic journal) before 2015. ( 30% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2012-02-22; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.
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GJP: #1086 Will Mohamed Waheed Hussain Manik resign or otherwise vacate the office of President of Maldives before 10 April 2012? ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2012-04-11; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-11.
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GJP: #1090 Before 13 April 2012, will the Turkish government officially announce that the Turkish ambassador to France has been recalled? ( 30% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2012-04-14; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-14.
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GJP: #1084 Who will win Venezuela’s 2012 presidential election? Hugo Chavez ( 76% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2012-10-20; judged right by scav on 2012-10-11.
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GJP: #1089 Will Iran successfully detonate a nuclear device, either atmospherically, underground, or underwater before 1 January 2013? ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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GJP: #1093 Will at least one Taliban representative be appointed to serve as a minister in the Afghan government before 1 January 2013? ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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GJP: #1094 Will Zimbabwe commence a presidential election before 1 January 2013? ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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GJP: #1095 Will there be a significant* outbreak of H5N1 in China in 2012? ( 35% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2013-01-04; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-04.
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GJP: #1088 Will Japan commence parliamentary elections before 1 April 2012? ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
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GJP: #1085 Between 21 February 2012 and 1 April 2012, will the UN Security Council announce any reduction of its peacekeeping force in Haiti? ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
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GJP: #1091 Will Standard and Poor's downgrade Japan's Foreign Long Term credit rating at any point between 21 February 2012 and 1 April 2012? ( 30% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
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GJP: #1092 Will Myanmar release at least 100 more political prisoners between 21 February 2012 and 1 April 2012? ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
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GJP: #1096 Will a civil war break out in Syria between 21 February 2012 and 1 April 2012? ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2012-04-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-04-03.
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I will be selected for OpenSNP's free 23AndMe genotyping. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-20; known on 2012-04-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-10.
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Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ( 54% confidence; 20 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2012-02-18; known on 2032-02-17.
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'The RIAA and/or MPAA will be sued over their role in the government's actions to reassign DNS names owned by allegedly unlawful web sites. Even if the lawsuit manages to get all the way to trial, there won't be a significant ruling against them.' —FtT ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-14; known on 2012-01-01.
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Seth Roberts will link to http://www.gwern.net/Zeo#vitamin-d within the week. ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-14; known on 2012-02-21; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-23.
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Night 42: pill was Vitamin D ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-13; known on 2012-02-13; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-13.
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Night 41: pill was Vitamin D ( 25% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-12; known on 2012-02-12; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-12.
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Night 40: pill was Vitamin D ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-11; known on 2012-02-11; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-11.
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Pill was modafinil. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Lemmih on 2012-02-11; known on 2012-02-12; judged right by Lemmih on 2012-02-12.
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Night 39: pill was Vitamin D ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-10; known on 2012-02-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-10.
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Daily average click-through to DNB FAQ will be be <5% during the Talk-only period as compared to the previous Article-only period, and the difference will be significant at p<0.05 ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-09; known on 2012-05-21; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-05-20.
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Daily average click-through to DNB FAQ will be be <5% during the Talk-only period as compared to the previous Article-only period. ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-09; known on 2012-05-21; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-05-20.
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Night 38: pill was Vitamin D ( 25% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-09; known on 2012-02-09; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-09.
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Night 37: pill was Vitamin D ( 55% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-08; known on 2012-02-08; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-08.
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GJP: #1079 Who will win the 2012 Venezuela presidential primary for a unified opposition candidate to Hugo Chavez? Henrique Capriles Radonski ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-07; known on 2012-02-14; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-14.
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GJP: #1078 Will a Japanese whaling ship enter Australia's territorial waters between 7 February 2012 and 10 April 2012? ( 45% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-07; known on 2012-04-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-14.
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GJP: #1082 Will William Ruto cease to be a candidate for President of Kenya before 10 April 2012? ( 30% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-07; known on 2012-04-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-14.
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GJP: #1083 Will Marine LePen cease to be a candidate for President of France before 10 April 2012? ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-07; known on 2012-04-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-10.
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GJP: #1081 Will the Nigerian government and Boko Haram commence official talks before 31 December 2012? ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-07; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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GJP: #1080 Will the Republic of Macedonia* be a NATO member before 1 April 2013? ( 60% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-07; known on 2013-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-04-01.
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Second Falklands War before 2035 ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-07; known on 2035-01-01.
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Night 36: pill was Vitamin D ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-07; known on 2012-02-07; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-07.
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My armodafinil shipment will arrive within 4 weeks ( 75% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-06; known on 2012-03-03; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-17.
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My armodafinil shipment will arrive within 3 weeks ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-06; known on 2012-02-25; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-17.
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My armodafinil shipment will arrive within 2 weeks ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-06; known on 2012-02-18; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-17.
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My armodafinil shipment will arrive within 1 week ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-06; known on 2012-02-11; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-11.
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Night 35: pill was Vitamin D ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-06; known on 2012-02-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-06.
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Initial release of iPhone 5 or iPad 3 (or their market names) will allow installing your own applications, without jailbreaking or signing up for a developer program ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-02-05; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-21.
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There will be a Google Summer of Code in 2017 ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-02-05; known on 2017-04-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-01.
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papermachine will not donate to the Internet Archive ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-04; known on 2012-02-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-04.
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Pill was modafinil. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Lemmih on 2012-02-04; known on 2012-02-05; judged right by Lemmih on 2012-02-05.
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Night 34: pill was Vitamin D ( 70% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-04; known on 2012-02-04; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-04.
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USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China. ( 41% confidence; 17 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-04; known on 2030-01-01.
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Night 33: pill was Vitamin D ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-03; known on 2012-02-03; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-03.
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I'll get a girlfriend this year. ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2013-01-03.
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The model predicts that by 2012, almost half of the 50 states would vote against a marriage ban, including several states that had previously voted to ban it. —Nate Silver ( 44% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2012-01-31.
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Night 32: pill was Vitamin D ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-02; known on 2012-02-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-02.
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Pill was modafinil. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Lemmih on 2012-02-02; known on 2012-02-03; judged right by Lemmih on 2012-02-02.
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2050: Less than 5% of the global population lives in autonomous units with populations between 10 million and 1 billion. ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-02; known on 2050-01-01.
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2050: Less than 5% of the global population lives in sovereign nation-states. ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-01; known on 2050-01-01.
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By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ( 75% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-02-01; known on 2050-01-01.
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Night 31: pill was Vitamin D ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-01; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-01.
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Natural languages no longer widely used for communication a century from now. (Conditional on non-extinction of Homo sapiens/non-occurrence of apocalypse.) ( 22% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-01; known on 2112-02-01.
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Night 30: pill was Vitamin D ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-31; known on 2012-01-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-31.
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GJP: #1074 Will Libyan government forces regain control* of the city of Bani Walid before 6 February 2012? ( 60% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-31; known on 2012-02-06; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-08.
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GJP: #1077 Will Egypt officially announce by 15 February 2012 that it is lifting* its travel ban on Americans currently in Egypt? ( 45% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-31; known on 2012-02-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-17.
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GJP: #1075 Will a run-off be required in the 2012 Russian presidential election? ( 35% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-31; known on 2012-03-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-06.
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GJP: #1072 Will Serbia be officially granted EU candidacy before 1 April 2012? ( 45% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-31; known on 2012-04-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-04-03.
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GJP: #1073 Will the IMF officially announce before 1 April 2012 that an agreement has been reached to lend Hungary an additional 15+ Billion Euros? ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-31; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
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GJP: #1076 Will the Iraqi government officially announce before 1 April 2012 that it has dropped all criminal charges against its VP Tareq al-Hashemi? ( 35% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-31; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
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Night 29: pill was Vitamin D ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-30; known on 2012-01-30; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-30.
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The Hunger Games film will not fail (>= 60% on Rotten Tomatoes). ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Christopher on 2012-01-29; known on 2012-03-24; judged right by Christopher on 2012-03-23.
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Night 28: pill was Vitamin D ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-29; known on 2012-01-29; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-29.
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A nuclear device (bomb, granade etc) with a strength of more than 1 kiloton will explode anywhere in the middle east within the next 5 years. ( 13% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by siscoking on 2012-01-29; known on 2017-01-29; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-30.
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I will watch all 75 episodes of Hikaru no Go before 2013. ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-29; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.
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Conditional on being offered a fulltime non-contractor with-benefits jobs at SIAI, I will accept. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-28; known on 2012-04-28; judged right by gwern on 2012-04-28.
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gwern will have a fulltime non-contractor with-benefits jobs at SIAI within 3 months —shminux ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-28; known on 2012-04-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-28.
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Salminen 2012's “reasoning abilities”/“reasoning skills” measure will be a matrix-style IQ/Gf/fluid intelligence test. ( 80% confidence; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-28; known on 2012-02-28; judged right by gwern on 2012-07-25.
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Human whole-genome sequencing <=$100 by 2020. ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-28; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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Human whole-genome sequencing <=$1000 by 2020. ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-28; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2016-01-06.
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I will unsubscribe from Erfworld. ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-27; known on 2012-07-27; judged right by gwern on 2012-06-26.
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Night 27: pill was Vitamin D ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-27; known on 2012-01-27; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-27.
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Jaeggi 2008 (DNB transfer to Gf) will be formally retracted within 5 years ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-27; known on 2017-01-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-27.