Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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NFL 2012: Cowboys will win NFC East ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-02-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-12-31.
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NFL: Adrian Peterson won't break Eric Dickerson's single season rushing record in 2012 ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-12-20; known on 2013-02-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-31.
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The bitcoin protocol will have a fatal weakness that is discovered, leading to the crash of the bitcoin economy. End of year prediction. ( 3% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by kiba on 2012-01-07; known on 2012-12-30; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-31.
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We will have a working people tracking system in our office ( 51% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-27; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2012-12-31.
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There will be an massive earthquake in the midde east next year. ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by puya on 2011-04-17; known on 2012-12-30; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-30.
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Apple's share in the smartphone market will collapse to 10% or less by the end of this year. ( 31% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by kiba on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-12-30; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-30.
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The “Anonymous Narratives by LW Women” thread will receive >500 comments ( 63% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Konkvistador on 2012-09-09; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by Athrelon on 2012-12-30.
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Google trends will show a decline in the term “asshat” within the last two years. ( 66% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-12-29; known on 2012-12-29; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2012-12-29.
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The Met Office will issue a severe weather warning for some parts of the UK in the period 06/12/12-06/01/13 ( 85% confidence )
Created by Sarokrae on 2012-11-06; known on 2013-01-06; judged right by Sarokrae on 2012-12-28.
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Boehner will accept the fiscal cliff deal offered by Obama this week ( 65% confidence; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-12-18; known on 2012-12-25; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-12-28.
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In the Ontario (Canada) legislature, the Liberal minority will form the government, and as of 2012-12-21, they will still have the confidence of the House. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-21; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-27.
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Created by kiba on 2012-11-07; known on 2012-11-30; judged wrong by kiba on 2012-12-27.
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By the end of the year Namecoin would be closer to Bitcoin in value than to the early-2012 value of Namecoin. ( 78% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by marchdown on 2012-01-03; known on 2012-12-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-27.
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The Syrian regime will reach EOL by december 2012. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-03-04; known on 2012-12-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-27.
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World economic depression ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kish on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-12-21; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-27.
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Chrome will ship with the first public release of Android “Jelly Bean” (or whatever the major version after “Ice Cream Sandwich” is called) ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-12; known on 2012-12-01; judged right by ygert on 2012-12-27.
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The world will not end December 25, 2012. ( 98% confidence; 28 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Houshalter on 2010-06-13; known on 2012-12-26; judged right by Qiaochu on 2012-12-26.
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The next wave of internet bubbles will be based around services that harvest, collate and compute “Human meta data”. Most of which will come from Smart phone and Social Networking data plus real time obscure meta data will come from human input. ( 90% confidence; 7 comments )
Created by senectus on 2011-11-04; known on 2012-11-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2012-12-26.
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The 2012 Apocalypse will end up being a hoax. ( 84% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by seansman15@hotmail.com on 2011-03-23; known on 2012-12-23; judged right by ygert on 2012-12-25.
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NFL: New England Patriots will beat the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 16 of the 2012 Season ( 80% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-22; known on 2012-12-25; judged right by RandomNFL on 2012-12-24.
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NFL: Denver Broncos will beat the Cleveland Browns in Week 16 of the 2012 Season ( 80% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-22; known on 2012-12-25; judged right by RandomNFL on 2012-12-24.
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NFL: Green Bay Packers will beat the Tennessee Titans in Week 16 of the 2012 Season ( 80% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-22; known on 2012-12-25; judged right by RandomNFL on 2012-12-24.
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NFL: Houston Texans will beat the Minnesota Vikings in Week 16 of the 2012 Season ( 70% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-22; known on 2012-12-25; judged wrong by RandomNFL on 2012-12-24.
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NFL: Carolina Panthers will beat the Oakland Raiders in Week 16 of the 2012 Season ( 70% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-22; known on 2012-12-25; judged right by RandomNFL on 2012-12-24.
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NFL: Indianapolis Colts will beat the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 16 of the 2012 Season ( 70% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-22; known on 2012-12-25; judged right by RandomNFL on 2012-12-24.
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NFL: Washington Redskins will beat the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 16 of the 2012 Season ( 70% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-22; known on 2012-12-25; judged right by RandomNFL on 2012-12-24.
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NFL: Chicago Bears will beat the Arizona Cardinals in Week 16 of the 2012 Season ( 70% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-22; known on 2012-12-25; judged right by RandomNFL on 2012-12-24.
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NFL: Pittsburgh Steelers will beat the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 16 of the 2012 Season ( 70% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-22; known on 2012-12-25; judged wrong by RandomNFL on 2012-12-24.
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NFL: Miami Dolphins will beat the Buffalo Bills in Week 16 of the 2012 Season ( 60% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-22; known on 2012-12-25; judged right by RandomNFL on 2012-12-24.
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NFL: San Diego Chargers will beat the NYJets in Week 16 of the 2012 Season ( 60% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-22; known on 2012-12-25; judged right by RandomNFL on 2012-12-24.
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NFL: Dallas Cowboys will beat the New Orleans Saints in Week 16 of the 2012 Season ( 60% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-22; known on 2012-12-25; judged wrong by RandomNFL on 2012-12-24.
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NFL: Seattle Seahawks will beat the SF 49ers in Week 16 of the 2012 Season ( 60% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-22; known on 2012-12-25; judged right by RandomNFL on 2012-12-24.
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NFL: Tampa Bay Buccaneers will beat the St. Louis Rams in Week 16 of the 2012 Season ( 55% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-22; known on 2012-12-25; judged wrong by RandomNFL on 2012-12-24.
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NFL: NY Giants will beat the Baltimore Ravens in Week 16 of 2012 Season ( 55% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-22; known on 2012-12-25; judged wrong by RandomNFL on 2012-12-24.
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LSD microdosing experiment: pair 9: placebo then active? ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-23; known on 2012-12-24; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-23.
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NFL: Megatron will break Jerry Rice's single season receiving record in 2012 ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-12-20; known on 2013-02-01; judged right by RandomNFL on 2012-12-23.
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NFL: Detroit Lions will beat the Atlanta Falcons in Week 16 of the 2012 Season ( 55% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-22; known on 2012-12-25; judged wrong by RandomNFL on 2012-12-23.
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The world will end on 21 December 2012. ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-03-17; known on 2012-12-22; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2012-12-22.
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The world will exist on 2012-12-22 (day after the widely hyped end) ( 99% confidence; 43 wagers; 21 comments )
Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-22; judged right by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
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World will not end on 12-21-2012. ( 91% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2012-12-21; judged right by Qiaochu on 2012-12-21.
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USD worth over 3 EUR ( 18% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kish on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-12-21; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-21.
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Gangnam Style to reach 1,000,000,000 views by December 31st 2012. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bZkp7q19f0 ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Sarokrae on 2012-11-25; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by army1987 on 2012-12-21.
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Gangnam Style to reach 1,000,000,000 views by December 21st 2012. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bZkp7q19f0 ( 53% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Sarokrae on 2012-11-25; known on 2012-12-21; judged right by army1987 on 2012-12-21.
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Reddit: “Dawn of The Final Day” meme on frontpage on 2012/12/20. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-20; known on 2012-12-20; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-12-21.
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Reddit: reminder that “Dawn of The Final Day” frontpage was predicted a year ago on frontpage on 2012/12/20. ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-20; known on 2012-12-20; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-12-21.
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HPMoR lidz 2013. gada 1. martam netiks turpinats ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by zaarcis on 2012-12-10; known on 2013-03-01; judged wrong by Arets Paeglis on 2012-12-20.
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I will be accepted to UChicago EA. ( 25% confidence )
Created by Christopher on 2012-12-13; known on 2012-12-18; judged wrong by Christopher on 2012-12-19.
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Jacob Zuma of ANC will not be re-elected to lead South Africa at Mangaung 2012. Julius Malema is his downfall, he shouldn't have sacked his liutenant rather he should have made peace with the king maker. ( 60% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by general on 2011-11-19; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by D_Malik on 2012-12-18.
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NFL: NY Jets will beat the Tennessee Titans in Week 15 of the 2012 Season ( 55% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-16; known on 2012-12-20; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-12-18.
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LSD microdosing experiment: pair 8: placebo then active? ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-17; known on 2012-12-18; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-17.