Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 67% | 67% | 20% | 50% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
Displaying all predictions made by kjaques. Filter by:
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I finish my PhD (wrote thesis, passed viva) ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sam_jaques on 2020-08-01; known on 2024-01-01.
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< 35M coronavirus deaths ( 81% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by kjaques on 2020-07-31; known on 2021-07-31; judged right by sam_jaques on 2021-07-31.
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< 2M coronavirus deaths ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by kjaques on 2020-07-31; known on 2021-07-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-03-31.
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covid Restrictions on air travel will be lifted (as pertains to SJ's MS job) by November 2020 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kjaques on 2020-04-29; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by kjaques on 2020-11-01.
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< 35M coronavirus deaths ( 86% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by kjaques on 2020-03-19; known on 2020-07-31; judged right by kjaques on 2020-07-31.
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<2M coronavirus deaths. ( 25% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by kjaques on 2020-03-19; known on 2020-07-31; judged right by kjaques on 2020-07-31.
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oil consumption will remain at or above current levels for at least 20 years ( 45% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kjaques on 2019-11-30; known on 2039-11-30.
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1 person helicopter drones will not be used for commercial public passenger use ( 85% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kjaques on 2016-12-15; known on 2021-12-25; judged right by kjaques on 2021-12-25.
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1 person helicopter drones in commercial use ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kjaques on 2016-12-15; known on 2021-12-25; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-12.
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Trump will not be impeached during his first term ( 86% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kjaques on 2016-11-25; known on 2020-11-30; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-08-12.
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Dr Bob predicts, based on oil industry, certainty of 75%, that BNE will be $50 or higher on the TSE ( 80% confidence )
Created by kjaques on 2015-01-24; known on 2018-01-23; judged wrong by kjaques on 2018-02-03.
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Dr. Bob says closing stock price of CPG – $37.50 or higher, 75% sure based on predictions of oil. I'm more than that sure just based on inflation and basic economic growth. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by kjaques on 2015-01-24; known on 2018-01-23; judged wrong by kjaques on 2018-02-03.
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Dr Bob says: If you invest at Apple in June of 2014 right after the split at roughly $90/share then hold those shares and sell on Dec 31, 2016 you will show a loss. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kjaques on 2014-06-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kjaques on 2017-01-01.
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Dr Bob says: If you invest at Apple in June of 2014 right after the split at roughly $90/share you will turn a profit provided you sell by Dec 31 2014 ( 60% confidence )
Created by kjaques on 2014-06-03; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by kjaques on 2015-01-01.
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mortgage rates in Canada won't rise above 5% for a 1 year term within the next year. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kjaques on 2012-11-27; known on 2013-11-27; judged right by kjaques on 2013-11-27.