Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 100% | 50% | 71% | 100% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 18 |
Displaying all predictions made by sam_jaques. Filter by:
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Marijuana will be unscheduled, taxed and regulated similar to alcohol at a federal level in the United States before 2025. ( 42% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-01-01; known on 2025-01-02.
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RSA-1024 will be factored by 2021-12-31. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_Factoring_Challenge ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by evand on 2021-03-04; known on 2022-01-15; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-03-16.
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India's GDP for 2021-2022 will be higher than 2020-2021 ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sam_jaques on 2021-01-08; known on 2022-04-01; judged right by sam_jaques on 2022-08-20.
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Australia will open its borders to travellers from Canada, without an exemption or quarantine requirement, at some point in 2021 ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by sjy on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-12-31; judged wrong by stepan on 2022-01-02.
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Politics, US – By November 2nd, 2020, Twitter temporarily or permanently suspends @realDonaldTrump, or @teamtrump, or @POTUS based on alleged violations of Twitter's Terms of Service ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-09-27; known on 2020-11-02.
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Law enforcement in the USA is/has been pressuring ISPs to secretly configure router settings to spy on suspects ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by sam_jaques on 2020-09-04; known on 2026-01-01.
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COVID, UK – Pubs are closed again, at the national level, before end of September 2020. Counts even if subsequently reopened. ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-08-23; known on 2020-10-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-10-04.
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NIST standardizes Kyber and Dilithium ( 70% confidence )
Created by sam_jaques on 2020-08-14; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by sam_jaques on 2022-07-05.
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The UK administers at least 10 million coronavirus vaccines by the end of the year ( 27% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by sam_jaques on 2020-08-12; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sam_jaques on 2021-01-01.
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I run 5km in under 20:00 by the end of the year ( 5% confidence )
Created by sam_jaques on 2020-08-11; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sam_jaques on 2021-01-01.
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I run 5 km in under 21:00 by next year ( 60% confidence )
Created by sam_jaques on 2020-08-11; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sam_jaques on 2021-01-01.
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Joe Biden picks Kamala Harris as VP (during campaign) ( 70% confidence )
Created by sam_jaques on 2020-08-05; known on 2020-11-03; judged right by sam_jaques on 2020-08-11.
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UK does not exceed 5000 confirmed Coronavirus cases in a single day by the end of 2020 ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sam_jaques on 2020-08-03; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sam_jaques on 2020-09-26.
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India and China's border dispute escalates to a battle fought more than 100 km from the border ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sam_jaques on 2020-08-03; known on 2021-08-03; judged wrong by sam_jaques on 2021-08-03.
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I finish my PhD (wrote thesis, passed viva) ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sam_jaques on 2020-08-01; known on 2024-01-01.
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< 35M coronavirus deaths ( 81% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by kjaques on 2020-07-31; known on 2021-07-31; judged right by sam_jaques on 2021-07-31.
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< 2M coronavirus deaths ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by kjaques on 2020-07-31; known on 2021-07-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-03-31.
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covid Restrictions on air travel will be lifted (as pertains to SJ's MS job) by November 2020 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kjaques on 2020-04-29; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by kjaques on 2020-11-01.
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oil consumption will remain at or above current levels for at least 20 years ( 45% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kjaques on 2019-11-30; known on 2039-11-30.
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1 person helicopter drones will not be used for commercial public passenger use ( 85% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kjaques on 2016-12-15; known on 2021-12-25; judged right by kjaques on 2021-12-25.
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“Battle suits” will be ready for field testing by either US/NATO/China/Russia featuring exoskeleton, display over faceplate, power monitoring, health monitoring, integrating a weapon ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-02-26.
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NASDAQ, S&P500 all end 2017 lower than they started in 2017 (priced in USD) ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by bonchka on 2019-05-31.
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Hilary Clinton as next US President ( 55% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by LawrenceNewport on 2016-06-07; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles. ( 21% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-26; known on 2024-12-31.