Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 33% | 56% | 75% | 76% | 89% | 91% | |
Sample Size | 12 | 16 | 28 | 34 | 73 | 23 | 186 |
Displaying all predictions made by peter_hurford. Filter by:
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We will fairly convincingly know who Satoshi Nakamoto is in five years. ( 20% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JohnGreer on 2018-04-13; known on 2023-04-13; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-31.
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My election-related PredictIt bets are profitable (see clearer definition in comment) ( 95% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-11-03; known on 2021-01-01.
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there will be a Democratic Senate at least once by 2042 ( 96% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-11-05; known on 2043-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-03-03.
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There are ten or more US Supreme Court justices by the end of 2024 ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-11-05; known on 2025-01-01.
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The tipping point state will be Michigan ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-11-05; known on 2020-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-23.
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Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election ( 95% confidence; 26 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-11-04; known on 2020-12-01; judged right by Deepak on 2020-12-15.
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@iabvek's presential and senate forecasts (see https://twitter.com/iabvek/status/1323522647678873600) will jointly hve a higher (i.e., worse/less accurate) Brier score than 538's forecast ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-11-03; known on 2020-11-14; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-11-14.
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Created by peter_hurford on 2020-11-03; known on 2020-11-17.
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ND will finish his EU strategy by the end of the month ( 90% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-11-02; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-12-02.
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Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021. ( 11% confidence; 17 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ren on 2020-11-01; known on 2021-11-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-11-01.
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China will successfully incorporate Taiwan by 2050 ( 32% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-10-22; known on 2051-01-01.
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OSU is online only by 1 November ( 80% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-09-04; known on 2020-11-02; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-11-02.
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OSU is online only by 28 September ( 70% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-09-04; known on 2020-09-29; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-09-29.
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OSU is online only by 8 September ( 15% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-09-04; known on 2020-09-09; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-09-11.
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As of 2020-11-01 Denison University has COVID prevention polices that are deemed to be stricter on balance than the policies they have adopted as of 2020-08-07 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-08-07; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-11-03.
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Denison University exceeds 20 COVID cases by the end of the year ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-08-07; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.
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More prospective hires apply on 2020-07-25 than 2020-07-24 (relative to Chicago time) ( 80% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-07-26; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-07-26.
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VR is completed by 2020 ( 95% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-07-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.
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SIP is completed by the end of 2020 ( 98% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-07-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.
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Vox Media publishes an article on one of their official news sites about the SSC-NYT affair by the end of the year ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-06-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.
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At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site ( 78% confidence; 13 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-06-24; known on 2021-01-02; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.
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By June 2022, I judge that Human Challenge Trials are attributable to making the date I personally get a COVID-19 vaccine earlier than it otherwise would've been without Human Challenge Trials ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-06-20; known on 2022-06-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2022-06-06.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, not won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 0 ( 60% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, not won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 1 to 10 ( 36% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, not won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 11 to 20 ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, not won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 21 to 30 ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, not won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 31 to 40 ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-16.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, not won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 41 to 51 ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-05.
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a bill passes and is signed into law to add more money to the SBA PPP program in 2020 before 1am on June 1, 2020 ET ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-04-19; known on 2020-06-01; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-05-01.
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Contingent on more money being added to the PPP program, that money will be available for 501c3 non-profits ( 90% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-04-19; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-05-01.
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Rethink Charity gets SBA PPP program money in 2020 ( 40% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-04-19; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-05-01.
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More money is added to the SBA PPP program in 2020 ( 90% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-04-19; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-05-01.
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IV and I will have dinner tonight ( 90% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-02-12; known on 2020-02-12; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-02-13.
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Conditional on Trump’s impeachment trial having at least one witness give testimony, Hunter Biden will give testimony ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-18; known on 2021-01-01.
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Health, UK – News reports of a confirmed case of 2019-nCoV in UK by deadline. ( 74% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-23; known on 2020-02-28; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-01-31.
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[Conditional on Elon Musk not becoming impaired cognitively, at least one person will depart for Mars with the intent/expectation of not returning, by ] January 1, 2025 ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-01-23; known on 2035-01-01.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 100 million ( 0% confidence; 29 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 50 million ( 1% confidence; 34 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 10 million ( 8% confidence; 36 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 5 million ( 12% confidence; 34 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 1 million ( 40% confidence; 45 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-09.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 500,000 ( 44% confidence; 46 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-29.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 10,000 ( 56% confidence; 45 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-03-20.
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There will be more than 8000 human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be reported before 2021 ( 71% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-30.
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Lab-cultured red protein that emulates beef will become commonplace, and sold in typical grocery stores, *by 2025*. ( 29% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sungk2048 on 2020-01-18; known on 2025-01-19.
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California has an earthquake with either one death or >$1B in damage in 2020 ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-18; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.
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The Senate trial for Trump’s impeachment will have at least one witness give testimony (public or private) in 2020 ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-18; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-02-04.
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Meta-prediction: I win my predictions bet with David Manheim https://twitter.com/peterhurford/status/1217795302821896193 ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-17; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-05.
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There will be a 4x GM in Kaggle in 2020 ( 20% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-16; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.
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The Democratic Nominee will be someone other than Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Yang, Klobuchar, or Bloomberg ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2020-07-15; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-07-16.
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Mike Bloomberg is the US 2020 Democratic Party nominee ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2020-07-15; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-07-16.
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Amy Klobuchar is the US 2020 Democratic nominee ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2020-07-15; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-07-16.
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After the Democratic nominee is chosen, I will still assign between 35% and 45% to the chance of Trump winning the general election (currently 40%). ( 60% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2020-07-15; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-09-04.
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Scotland will announce an independence referendum in 2020 ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.
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Nicolás Maduro will be president of Venezuela on Dec. 31, 2020 ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.
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Trump meets with Kim in 2020 ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.
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The states (+DC) adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact have less combined electoral votes at the end of 2020 than they did in 2019 ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.
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Tesla has at least one truly autonomous (no human safety driver) taxi (where a member of the public chooses the destination and pays) on a regular street (where unrestricted human-driven cars are driven on the same street) by the end of 2020 ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.
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Ken Jennings wins the Jeopardy Greatest of All Time Tournament tonight ( 45% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2020-01-15; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15.
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Ken Jennings wins the Jeopardy Greatest of All Time Tournament ( 70% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2020-01-22; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15.
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A third-party candidate gets more than 5% of the vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election ( 8% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-14; known on 2020-11-07; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-11-07.
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Chinese People's Liberation Army to be (overtly) deployed to Hong Kong by 2020-01-23 ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2020-01-24; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-01-25.
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Politics – Iran strikes, and does not deny striking, a US military base between 2020-01-12 and 2020-02-02 ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-11; known on 2020-02-03; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-02-03.
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in four months, the consensus among the national security community will be that we (i.e., the US) are not any more meaningfully said to be “at war” with Iran than we are now on 5 Jan 2020. ( 65% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-06; known on 2020-05-06; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-05-06.
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[States (+DC) adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact] have >= 270 electoral votes ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.
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[The Economist predicts:] Greta Thunberg wins Nobel peace prize ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-10-09.
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[The Economist predicts:] US gives notice of withdrawal from NATO ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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[The Economist predicts:] Bitcoin price ends year below $7,500 ( 40% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Pete Buttigieg will win the democratic primary ( 17% confidence; 18 wagers )
Created by skuthus on 2019-11-27; known on 2020-06-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-17.
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The Senate to vote on impeachment of the 45th president before the end of June 2020 ( 86% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-10-19; known on 2020-07-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-02-04.
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US Secretary of State to visit Iran by 2020-01-25 ( 13% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-26; known on 2020-01-26; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-31.
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US President to visit Iran by 2020-01-25 ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-26; known on 2020-01-26; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-31.
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[REDACTED INDIVIDUAL CODE A] is no longer working at [REDACTED ORG CODE A] in six months ( 70% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2019-04-25; known on 2019-10-25; judged right by peter_hurford on 2019-10-19.
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Within one month, MD will have concluded that JQ worked out ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2019-01-25; known on 2019-02-25; judged right by peter_hurford on 2019-04-09.
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AR gives us the okay for publishing our project on CC-PA ( 80% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2019-01-24; known on 2019-02-08; judged right by peter_hurford on 2019-02-11.
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[Politics] Trump will choose not to run for a second term in 2020. ( 14% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by KangaRookie on 2019-01-22; known on 2020-11-05; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-11-04.
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[Politics] Donald Trump to publicly express support for Taiwanese independence in 2019 ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-22; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.
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EA Grants makes the majority of their applications public knowledge by the end of October 19, 2019 (UTC). ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-10-19; known on 2019-10-19; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2019-10-19.
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EA Grants makes the majority of their grant decisions and amounts publicly accessible by October 19, 2019 (UTC) ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-10-19; known on 2019-10-19; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2019-10-19.
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Next US financial crash, and consequent recession to hit between December of 2018, and March of 2019 ( 12% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sdr on 2018-10-19; known on 2019-05-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-05-01.
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Andrew Cuomo will win the NY gubernatorial election. ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2018-10-11; known on 2018-11-10; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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Larry Sharpe will win the NY gubernatorial election. ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2018-10-11; known on 2018-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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Trump will not be re-elected in 2020 ( 58% confidence; 18 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by SeriousPod on 2018-08-02; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by avi on 2020-11-07.
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The “3 Cal” proposal to create three different California states gets a majority of votes in the 2018 election ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-06-17; known on 2018-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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Politics – Trump claims that the North Koreans were not serious/deceptive about the meeting between him and Kim Jong Un at some point before the end of June 2018. ( 39% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-10; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-07-07.
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Politics, US – An additional state after Illinois ratifies the Equal Rights Amendment by the end of July 2018. ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-08; known on 2018-08-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-08-12.
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By the end of next year, the RP 2018-2019 Plan will be completed exactly as it is currently published with no significant revisions or changed deliverable dates ( 1% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-04-27; known on 2019-05-30; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2018-06-15.
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Debbie Lesko wins the April 2018 special election for Arizona's 8th District ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-04-25; judged right by davatk on 2018-04-25.
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World War 3 to begin in 2018. (Formal war involving at least three large, developed nations, with some on separate sides). ( 0% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-04-16; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2019-01-01.
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Amazon will acquire Boston Dynamics, and this will be publicly announced before the end of 2019 ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-04-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Donald Trump will lose the next election. ( 62% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-04-03; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-11-07.
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Within 6 months, a bombing campaign will start in Iran. ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2018-03-24; known on 2018-07-24; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.
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Republicans retain majorities in both the House and Senate after the 2018 mid terms ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jamesrom on 2018-03-21; known on 2018-11-07; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2018-11-07.
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Trump meets Kim ( 72% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by playablecharacter on 2018-03-09; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-06-12.
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The market capitalization of Ethereum (ETH) will overtake the market capitalization of Bitcoin (BTC) before the end of January 2019. ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Anidrania on 2018-02-26; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-02-01.
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JF will attend dinner tonight ( 35% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-02-17; known on 2018-02-17; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2018-02-18.
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RK will attend dinner tonight ( 30% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-02-17; known on 2018-02-17; judged right by peter_hurford on 2018-02-18.
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JD will attend my talk ( 80% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-02-16; known on 2018-02-15; judged right by peter_hurford on 2018-02-16.
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Stellar (XLM) is purchasable on Coinbase (GDAX) by the end of 2018 ( 15% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-02-05; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2019-01-02.
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NEO is purchasable on Coinbase (GDAX) by the end of 2018 ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-02-05; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2019-01-02.