Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 64% | 61% | 72% | 74% | 85% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 25 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 40 | 3 | 239 |
Displaying all predictions made by crabman. Filter by:
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Proof that P≠NP (confirmed by Scott Aaronson) in 2021. ( 1% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.
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Someone will succeed at the IMO grand challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io) in the next 20 years. ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by krazemon on 2019-09-15; known on 2039-09-15.
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Someone will succeed at the IMO grand challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io) in the next 10 years. ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2019-09-15; known on 2029-09-15.
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Someone will succeed at the IMO grand challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io) in the next 5 years. ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by krazemon on 2019-09-15; known on 2024-09-15.
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I will get something resembling a face during current run #dl #ml ( 30% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2019-05-01; known on 2019-05-02; judged wrong by crabman on 2019-05-01.
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#kocherga will get a CEA grant ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by crabman on 2018-11-30; known on 2100-12-21; judged unknown by crabman on 2018-12-29.
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Trump wins Nobel ( 10% confidence; 41 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2018-05-03; known on 2030-01-01.
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EA – Machine Intelligence Research Institute raises more in a 2018 fundraiser than in its 2017 fundraiser ( 55% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-01-03.
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Kocherga, rational time club in Moscow, Russia will close and not reopen in 2018 ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2018-04-11; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by crabman on 2018-12-29.
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I will be in a romantic relationship with a woman whom I love and who loves me at some point between now and my 30th birthday. ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-04-10; known 21 days ago.
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Still no first kiss before my 30th birthday. ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-04-10; known 21 days ago.
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Still no first kiss before my 25th birthday. ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-04-02; known on 2018-10-10; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-10-10.
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Our DnD session will end before 20:00 ( 60% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2018-03-24; known on 2018-03-24; judged wrong by crabman on 2018-03-26.
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I will still be using NixOS in three months ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by enolan on 2018-03-23; known on 2018-06-23; judged right by enolan on 2018-06-24.
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If @m doesn't cancel the game 2018-03-22, I will be feeling well enough to come #illness #personal ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2018-03-23; known on 2018-03-24; judged right by crabman on 2018-03-26.
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If @m doesn't cancel the game 2018-03-22, I will be feeling well enough to come #illness #personal ( 35% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2018-03-22; known on 2018-03-24.
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If I end up using my Gruzovichkoff order on 2018-03-23, I will pay for 3+ hours of loader's work ( 55% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2018-03-22; known on 2018-03-23; judged right by crabman on 2018-03-24.
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I will not cancel psychotherapy session because of illness ( 70% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2018-03-22; known on 2018-03-22; judged wrong by crabman on 2018-03-22.
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Kahneman (or whoever controls his email) will give an actual response to the question I sent him via an email ( 50% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2017-11-25; known on 2017-12-26; judged right by crabman on 2017-11-25.
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In 5 years programmers will be expected to write formally proven programs to the same or more extent as they're expected to write tests today ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jach on 2017-11-17; known on 2022-11-17; judged wrong by crabman on 2022-11-17.
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Ethereum hard fork will happen because of https://paritytech.io/blog/security-alert.html ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by crabman on 2017-11-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-01-03.
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>50% of the world population has to scan their eye(/iris) at least once per day ( 3% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-27; known on 2020-08-19; judged wrong by NickN on 2020-08-20.
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Created by crabman on 2017-10-26; known on 2018-06-01; judged wrong by crabman on 2018-06-01.
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I will have dropped piano by this date ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-10-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by crabman on 2018-01-10.
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I will have dropped piano by this date ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-10-11; known on 2017-11-11; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-11-20.
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I will finish Geometry 1 at IUM this year ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-10-11; known on 2018-01-30; judged wrong by crabman on 2018-01-30.
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I will finish Algebra 1 at IUM this year ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-10-11; known on 2018-01-30; judged wrong by crabman on 2018-01-30.
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I will finish Analysis 1 at IUM this year ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-10-11; known on 2018-01-30; judged wrong by crabman on 2018-01-30.
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I will finish the Deep RL course (http://edu.ipavlov.ai/RL/) #personal ( 44% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-10-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by crabman on 2018-01-10.
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If I do algorythm.tech test exercise, it will take me between 5 and 30 hours #planning #personal ( 80% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2017-08-01; known on 2017-08-14.
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If I apply to http://algorythm.tech, they will accept me #personal ( 70% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-27; known on 2017-08-13.
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Я не опоздаю на прыжок к 11:00. (если опоздаем все вместе из-за того, что я встречал Сашу, то не считается) ( 85% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2017-09-09; known on 2017-09-10; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-09-12.
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#personal If I try psychotherapy in the next 1 months, I will think it's been time and money and other resources well pent ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-15; known on 2017-08-16.
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If I do http://algorythm.tech test exercise, it will take me 12-36 hours #planning ( 75% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-27; known on 2017-08-10.
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The company I am interning at will hire Ildar ( 30% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2017-08-08; known on 2017-09-17; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-08-24.
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The company I am interning at will try to hire me. (if they ask me whether I want to work for them and I say no, it still counts) ( 44% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-08-08; known on 2017-09-01; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-09-07.
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The company I am interning at will hire Yaroslav, who is another intern. He seems hardworking. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-08-08; known on 2017-09-17; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-10-02.
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If the party is on sunday, I will go to it #personal ( 40% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2017-08-01; known on 2017-08-06.
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My supervisors will tell me that I did wrong things and was not effective, or that I should really change what I am doing, e.g. be less academic ( 30% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-27; known on 2017-07-27; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-07-27.
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Habidatum supervisors will tell me to switch to social graph project #personal ( 70% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-27; known on 2017-07-28; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-07-27.
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Habidatum will invite me to non-paid internship ( 55% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-25; known on 2017-07-26; judged right by crabman on 2017-07-27.
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Ethereum blockchain will fork because of parity multisig hack that happened today before 2017-08-20 ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-19; known on 2017-08-20; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-08-20.
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Price of ETH at 2017-07-20 00:37 UTC+0 will be higher than NOW (2017-07-19 21:37 UTC+0) ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-19; known on 2017-07-20; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-07-20.
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Ethereum's price at 2017-08-19 01:00 UTC+0 will be higher than at 2017-07-19 01:00 UTC+0 ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-19; known on 2017-08-19; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-19.
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I will decide to pursue a career in biology during the next 2 months #personal ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-15; known on 2017-09-16; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-10-02.
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I will move to L29ah's apartments during the next month ( 60% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-15; known on 2017-08-16; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-08-18.
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I will start working for pay during the next 3 months ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-15; known on 2017-10-15; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-10-26.
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I will meet with someone from my Summer school (ЛШ) cycle whom I didn't know before during the next 2 months #personal ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-15; known on 2017-09-15; judged right by crabman on 2017-07-28.
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eros.vision will have < 100000 monthly active users at december 23-rd ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-13; known on 2017-12-23; judged right by crabman on 2017-12-23.
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My thinkpad's battery will run out during the bus drive to Summer School ( 60% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-08; known on 2017-07-08; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-07-12.
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Лизу позовут на оффлайн-собеседования в яндекс на интерна-ресерч-девелопера в 2017 #other_people ( 75% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-30; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by crabman on 2018-01-10.
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Лизу-whaf позовут в ШАД (2017) ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-30; known on 2017-08-05; judged right by crabman on 2017-07-28.
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Я встречусь на этой неделе с Ниной и Аней #personal #other_people ( 52% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-22; known on 2017-06-26; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-06-26.
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If I receive the screen and it works, then during one month of usage I won't get annoyed with its dead pixels (if any). ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-22; known on 2017-08-20; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-08-20.
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I ordered matte AUO B140HAN01.3 screen on ebay. I will get exactly this screen. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-22; known on 2017-08-01; judged right by crabman on 2017-08-01.
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If I buy a new laptop during the next 3 weeks, then I will be glad that I've bought it in 2 months ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-18; known on 2017-08-17; judged right by crabman on 2017-08-18.
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If I buy a new laptop during the next 3 weeks, then I will be glad that I've bought it in half a year ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-18; known on 2018-01-16; judged wrong by crabman on 2018-01-19.
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If I buy a new laptop during the next 3 weeks, then I will be glad that I've bought it in a year ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-18; known on 2018-06-17; judged right by crabman on 2018-06-18.
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I will get compensation >= $3k within next 8 years because of my arrest at the protest #no_research ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-18; known on 2025-06-13.
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A candidate supported by United Russia will be chosen as president in 2018 elections ( 93% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2018-03-19; judged right by crabman on 2018-03-20.
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Putin will be chosen as president in 2018 #research #politics_russia ( 86% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2018-03-19; judged right by timmartin on 2018-03-19.
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A new book in the Song of Ice and Fire series will come out before 2018-06-18 #no_research ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2018-06-18; judged right by crabman on 2018-06-18.
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Chalker выложит статью про то, откуда он взял мой пароль, до 2017-07-16 включительно ( 35% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2017-07-17; judged right by crabman on 2017-06-22.
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По истории gismeteo в какой-нибудь момент между 2017-06-16 и 2017-06-22 (включительно и включительно) в Москве будет 25 градусов или выше ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2017-06-23; judged wrong by Alaric on 2017-06-24.
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China’s GDP for 2017-06-17 is at least 50% of sum of GDPs of all countries ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2017-06-17; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-06-17.
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Начиная с 2017-06-17 по 2017-06-23 20:00 на медузе появится новость, которая скажет, что на кого-то завели уголовное дело по поводу произошедшего на митингах 12 июня ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2017-06-23; judged right by crabman on 2017-06-24.
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Я сделаю питч секции про предсказания на рациональном додзе 2017-06-23 ( 35% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2017-06-23; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-06-24.
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Слава Матюхин увеличит ТУ САМУЮ статью про додзе хотя бы на 100 байт до 2017-06-23 20:00 по Москве ( 25% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2017-06-23; judged wrong by Alaric on 2017-06-24.
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В футбольном матче Россия-Новая Зеландия, который должен быть 2017-06-17, Россия победит не позже, чем 2017-06-23 ( 60% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2017-06-17; judged right by crabman on 2017-06-17.
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Закон об анонимайзерах примут до 2017-06-23 включительно ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2017-06-24; judged wrong by Alaric on 2017-06-24.
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курс доллара по ЦБ за 2017-06-23 будет отличаться от курса за 2017-06-16 больше, чем на 50 копеек ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2017-06-23; judged right by Alaric on 2017-06-24.
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2017-06-16 Слава скажет, что додзе закончилось, до 22-30 включительно ( 30% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2017-06-16; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-06-17.
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До четверга включительно я узнаю, что получил смску, где меня вызывают в суд насчет митинга ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2017-06-23; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-06-24.
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On 2017-06-18 gismeteo will show that there was rain on 2017-06-17 in Moscow ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2017-06-18; judged wrong by Pablo on 2017-06-18.
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Half of world GDP is China. ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-17; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-30.
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Bitcoin at 10,000,000$/BTC (or equivalent in VEF or other currency) on any market where trading occurs. ( 6% confidence; 16 wagers; 31 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-10; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by bendini on 2017-12-27.
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Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state ( 0% confidence; 35 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-10; known on 2025-01-01.
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Spice & Wolf season 3 will be released within 5 years. ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-08; known on 2018-10-08; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-10-08.
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Ubuntu will create its very own Kernel within the next five years, ( 13% confidence; 18 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by peterc on 2013-05-28; known on 2018-06-01; judged wrong by moyamo on 2018-06-13.
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Google will survive for five more years ( 97% confidence; 38 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-05-19; known on 2018-05-19; judged right by NancyLebovitz on 2018-05-19.
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Google Chrome OS will survive 5 years ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by crabman on 2018-05-16.