Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 65% | 67% | 73% | 88% | 91% | 80% | |
Sample Size | 1033 | 269 | 129 | 197 | 347 | 45 | 2020 |
Displaying all predictions made by themusicgod1. Filter by:
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The average healthy, non-smoking, physically active male reader of Reddit now in his early 30s will live long enough to experience a Singularity and in some manner escape the bonds of traditional mortality. ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2070-01-01.
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I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years. ( 82% confidence; 15 wagers )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-29; known on 2022-09-29; judged right by lukeprog on 2022-09-29.
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The US presidential debates of 2016 will feature a three-way debate between a Democrat, a Republican, and a Libertarian Party candidate. ( 18% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-02; known on 2016-11-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-02.
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Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican. ( 51% confidence; 18 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-27; known on 2116-11-05.
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Earth will still exist in current form, most humans non-uploaded, and disease & old age & work & natural birth still existing —MixedNuts ( 38% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-27; known on 2112-09-27.
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Within 10 years I will be able to buy a 3D printed object at a local mall. ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by learnmethis on 2012-09-26; known on 2022-09-26.
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A minecraft-style MMO (simple sandbox game supporting > 500 players) will launch within 5 years ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by learnmethis on 2012-09-26; known on 2017-09-26.
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It will be just as easy to view copyrighted films and tv shows online (with or without permission) in 10 years as it is now. ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by learnmethis on 2012-09-26; known on 2022-09-26.
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No Honduras R.E.D. will have >$100M GDP within 10 years. ( 82% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-24; known on 2022-09-24; judged right by gwern on 2022-09-24.
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No Honduras R.E.D. will have >$100M GDP within 20 years. ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-24; known on 2032-09-24.
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2018: After finding the vaccine for HIV, researchers are able to start clinical trials for cures/vaccines for viruses like the cold and flu. ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jarlathhealy on 2012-09-17; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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2017: Numerous companies develop different vaccination techniques for HIV. ( 50% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jarlathhealy on 2012-09-17; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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2019: HIV is able to be thrown into remission in HIV+ individuals carrying the HIV-1 strain, only. Further research is needed for HIV-2. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jarlathhealy on 2012-09-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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2024: A vaccine for the cold is readily available at pharmacies and clinics worldwide. ( 33% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jarlathhealy on 2012-09-17; known on 2025-01-01.
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Paul Farrell, Marketwatch: Wall Street will lose 20% by 2016 ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-23; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Paul Allen will attempt to “download” or “store” his brain before he dies ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-22; known on 2062-01-01.
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In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ( 9% confidence; 16 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-18; known on 2022-09-19; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-09-25.
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Hezbollah disbanded by 2020 ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jach on 2012-09-19; known on 2020-06-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-17.
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By 2025, the volume of robocalls will exceed the volume of live calls on the regular phone system ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-16; known on 2025-01-01.
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There'll be press report of significant protest in China in the next 5 years against anti-Chinese video released on the internet. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-15; known on 2017-10-01; judged wrong by deleteyourbrain on 2019-05-01.
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A Libertarian Party candidate will receive more of the popular vote in the 2016 presidential election than the Republican candidate. ( 6% confidence; 23 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-02; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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If a large random portion of the Afghanistan population is forced to change gender presentation (the “sneetch” solution) by 2015, by 2018 the country will have passed anti-gender-discrimination laws for employment, housing, and education. ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by puritan on 2012-09-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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In the next 40 years, at least 1 Nobel Prize Literature will go to someone with a LessWrong account. ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-08; known on 2052-09-08.
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I will not smoke a tobacco product for the next 25 years. ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2037-09-07.
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I will not smoke a tobacco product for the next 5 years. ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2017-09-07; judged right by gwern on 2017-09-07.
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Hillary Clinton will run for president and be nominated by the Democrats in 2016. ( 42% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2016-09-30; judged right by Dapple on 2016-09-03.
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The LW user account “Grognor” will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years. ( 45% confidence; 13 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-08-27; known on 2022-08-28; judged wrong by muflax on 2022-08-28.
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At least one of Sasha and Malia Obama will say they have or had an eating disorder. ( 29% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2012-09-04; known on 2032-09-04.
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No functional whole brain emulation of a human will exist on Earth before 2050. ( 60% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2050-01-01.
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At least 2 billion biological humans will be alive on Earth at the beginning of 2030. ( 94% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2030-01-01.
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Yvain will have more LessWrong karma than me in 5 years. ( 86% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2017-09-04; judged right by lukeprog on 2017-09-04.
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No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020. ( 74% confidence; 20 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Caplan will win his bet with Nye on Indian fertility ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-30; known on 2034-06-01.
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Within 20 years the old river control structure will be destroyed, or fail* for reasons other than intentional decommissioning by the us government or its replacement. *The structure will be considered failed if for a month an average of 50% or greater la ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by beo_shaffer on 2012-08-29; known on 2032-08-29.
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Within 20 years the old river control structure will be intentionally disbanded by the US government or its successor and not replaced in any way, allowing the Mississippi to change course. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by beo_shaffer on 2012-08-29; known on 2032-08-29.
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Hillary will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2016 ( 47% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-28; known on 2016-07-01; judged right by elephantower on 2016-07-09.
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No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032 ( 52% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-27; known on 2032-01-01.
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Within the next ten years, Kepler 36b & Kepler 36c will be theorized in a peer-reviewed publication to be a case of planetary enucleation—b being the dense former core of c. ( 24% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-08-21; known on 2022-08-21.
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There won't be a significant automobile virus sighting through end of 2016 ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-31.
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For the year of 2020, natural gas will account for a higher percentage of US energy consumption than wind and solar power combined. ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-18; known on 2021-01-01.
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The world will not end before 2050 ( 89% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Lyaer on 2012-08-18; known on 2050-01-02.
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Fareed Zakaria: Indonesia will win more gold medals than Brazil in 2040 ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-15; known on 2040-12-31.
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Fareed Zakaria: US will be #1 in gold medals in 2040 ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-15; known on 2040-12-31.
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China will win more gold medals than India in 2040 ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-15; known on 2040-12-31.
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North and South Korea will reunify by 2025 ( 20% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-15; known on 2025-12-31.
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An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years. ( 8% confidence; 17 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-14; known on 2032-11-10.
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There will be federal laws or regulations on high speed trading in the U.S. by end of 2017 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-14; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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How/“why” (if applicable) our universe was created will be discovered through science. The answer will not be magical, but fundamentally understandable in nature. ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by asdadfa on 2012-08-12; known on 2100-01-01.
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There'll be a hollywood movie featuring mesh worm robot adversaries by end of 2017 ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-11; known on 2017-12-31.
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There'll be a big summer shark scare story within the next 4 years ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-06; known on 2016-12-31.
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By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone. ( 53% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-04; known on 2022-08-04; judged right by atzeje on 2022-05-23.
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First directly brain-controlled internet post will be announced within the next 5 years. ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-08-01; known on 2018-01-01.
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Unmanned aerial mapping will revolutionize archaeology (as evidenced by number of published papers) within the next 20 years. ( 69% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-08-01; known on 2033-01-01.
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New Horizons mission will transmit strong evidence of subsurface ocean on Pluto. ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-08-01; known on 2016-11-12.
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In 2032, solar power will be at least 150% of the second highest energy source of us consumption (in kwh). ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2012-07-28; known on 2032-01-01.
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Marissa Meyer will quit as Yahoo's CEO in less than 4 years ( 47% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-24; known on 2016-07-24; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-24.
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US govt won't file criminal charges against a C-level executive of an American bank in America for the next 10 years ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-23; known on 2022-07-23.
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Ben: In 2022, in the US, >50% of the top 5% of citizens by income who use computers will not be using a mouse / keyboard. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2012-07-09; known on 2023-01-01.
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There will be at least one implanted device (medical or otherwise) on the market that runs a Linux-based OS within the next 10 years. ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-01; known on 2022-07-01.
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I will be using Linux in 20 years ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-06-28; known on 2032-06-28.
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I will be using Linux in 10 years ( 69% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-06-28; known on 2022-06-28; judged right by gwern on 2022-06-29.
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I will be using Emacs in 20 years ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-06-28; known on 2032-06-28.
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I will be using Emacs in 10 years ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-06-28; known on 2022-06-28; judged right by gwern on 2022-06-29.
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I will be using Firefox in 20 years ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-06-28; known on 2032-06-28.
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I will be using Firefox in 10 years ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-06-28; known on 2022-06-28; judged right by gwern on 2022-06-29.
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I will be using Bash in 20 years ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-06-28; known on 2032-06-28.
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I will be using Bash in 10 years ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-06-28; known on 2022-06-28; judged right by gwern on 2022-06-29.
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Tuvalu will have fewer than 1000 year-round inhabitants by 2062. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-06-12; known on 2062-01-01.
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Will Newsome will publicly endorse http://www.timecube.com/ as the most accurate website ever made. ( 10% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-06-11; known on 2018-06-16; judged wrong by muflax on 2017-08-19.
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The “Rapture” will not occur by the end of 2050. ( 99% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by davidiach on 2012-06-06; known on 2050-12-31.
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One of the cyberwarfare viruses (Stuxnet, Flame, ??) will spill out and hit civilian US computers in a widespread way before 2022. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-30; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2022-01-02.
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Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021 ( 21% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-29; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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The tentative announcement of possible technological civilizations outside our solar system will precede widely-accepted confirmation of extraterrestrial life within our own solar system. (based on announcements in peer-reviewed jounals) ( 23% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-05-25; known on 2020-01-01.
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Tentative announcements of the discovery of intelligent life in other solar systems will appear in peer reviewed journals by 2020. ( 12% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-05-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032 ( 70% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-25; known on 2032-01-01.
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“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson ( 8% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-05-19; known on 2030-01-01.
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I will still be alive in 2078. ( 49% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-11; known on 2078-01-01.
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Gold has peaked for the next 5 years (spot gold < 1900 until 1-1-2017) ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-11; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.
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Tablet market will grow 5x in 5 years (424.9 million units by 2017) —NPD ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-09; known on 2018-03-01.
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Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018. ( 48% confidence; 10 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-08; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by elecnix on 2022-12-10.
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Looking back from 2016, people will say that Microsoft “got” social networking better than Google. ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years. ( 9% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-05-01; known on 2022-05-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2022-05-01.
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Apple will be a trillion dollar company before end of 2016 ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-26; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-01.
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Planetary Resources won't be mining asteroids by 2020 ( 84% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Children born with symptoms enough to be diagnosed as ADHD will rise as result of a rise in its treatment with stimulant medications. ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ShadyPharmacist on 2012-04-15; known on 2016-03-27.
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HP MoR: Methods of Rationality or a derivative work wins a Hugo Award in or before 2016. ( 11% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Osuniev on 2016-11-21.
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By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space. ( 15% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-04-08; known on 2051-01-01.
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A stronger stimulant than caffeine will be widely legally available in the UK by 2022, and be used and sold in a similar way ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Michael Stevens on 2012-04-06; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-01-03.
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Borders of Mali modified in the next ten years ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Leo on 2012-03-26; known on 2022-03-27; judged wrong by amadeu on 2022-04-21.
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Screens will not be the primary form of interface with mobile devices by 2025 ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-24; known on 2025-01-16.
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Kobe Bryant will own a professional sports team outside the US within the next 12 years (till 2024) ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-07; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2022-01-01.
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By 2020, there will have been at least 5 assassinations that were predicted by a prediction market (and known as such). ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2020-01-01.
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At least one government official (bureaucrat/politician/member of a royal family) assassinated by a flying robot before 2020. ( 57% confidence; 10 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-06; known on 2020-01-01.
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The US will have have laws or regulations to outlaw normal people destroying drones by end of 2022 (10 years from now) ( 48% confidence; 7 wagers; 33 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-06; known on 2022-12-31.
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An off-planet Playboy club is operational before 2030. ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-05; known on 2030-01-01.
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An off-planet Playboy Club is operational before 2020. ( 5% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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A Republican or Democratic candidate who publicly espouses Scientology will trade >=5% at any point on the Intrade market for his party's Presidential candidate nomination. ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-01; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-03-01.
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Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030 ( 84% confidence; 27 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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2020: Less than 50% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges. ( 20% confidence; 10 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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2020: Less than 20% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges. ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-01-02.