Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 0% | 50% | 0% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
Displaying all predictions made by ChanL. Filter by:
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“better than 50/50 chance Kepler-186f has technological life” —Hontas Farmer ( 0% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-04-21; known on 2019-04-21; judged wrong by gwern on 2019-04-22.
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A Presidential election will occur in Ukraine by June 5th or a Russian invasion of Ukraine will occur. ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-04-21; known on 2014-06-05; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2014-05-25.
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Within five years, Pope Francis (or a successor) makes a comment in an official or unofficial capacity that there is no literal hell. ( 11% confidence; 21 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by adbge on 2014-01-07; known on 2019-01-07; judged right by Osuniev on 2019-01-27.