Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 67% | 67% | 88% | 60% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 3 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 28 |
Displaying all predictions made by modulus. Filter by:
-
There will be a mass shooting in the US, defined as a shooting where more than 10 people are injured or killed ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by modulus on 2012-12-16; known on 2013-02-23; judged wrong by modulus on 2013-02-23.
-
Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
-
The SWP will split with 5-15 members joining the ULA. The SWP will decide to remain in the ULA for at least one year after the event. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jacobian on 2012-10-21; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by jacobian on 2014-01-01.
-
Greece out of Eurozone ( 50% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by yahood on 2012-07-27; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.
-
Turkey will invade Syria ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by modulus on 2012-06-24; known on 2012-07-15; judged wrong by modulus on 2012-07-15.
-
Apple will announce a dividend on their March 19, 2012 conference call ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-03-19; known on 2012-03-20; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-03-19.
-
The Syrian regime will reach EOL by december 2012. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-03-04; known on 2012-12-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-27.
-
First-year sales of Rowling's new book will be less than 40% of the first-year sales of Deathly Hallows (44 million according to Wikipedia.) ( 77% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-29; known on 2013-12-20; judged right by Grognor on 2013-12-24.
-
GJP: #1084 Who will win Venezuela’s 2012 presidential election? Hugo Chavez ( 76% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2012-10-20; judged right by scav on 2012-10-11.
-
GJP: #1089 Will Iran successfully detonate a nuclear device, either atmospherically, underground, or underwater before 1 January 2013? ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
-
Iran's upcoming statement on its nuclear programme will not concern development of weapons ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by modulus on 2012-02-11; known on 2012-04-01; judged right by modulus on 2012-02-15.
-
No Tobin Tax in the EU by 2013 ( 80% confidence )
Created by modulus on 2012-02-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by modulus on 2013-01-01.
-
Libya will have a lower HDI next time it is assessed ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by modulus on 2012-01-23; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
-
The future of the Euro: “Euro survives”. ( 77% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by siscoking on 2012-01-07; known on 2014-01-16; judged right by ygert on 2014-02-02.
-
Apple's share in the smartphone market will collapse to 10% or less by the end of this year. ( 31% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by kiba on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-12-30; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-30.
-
Iran will not be invaded or attacked this year ( 76% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by modulus on 2012-01-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by modulus on 2013-01-01.
-
GJP: #1056 Will €1 Euro buy less than $1.20 US dollars at any point before 1 January 2013? ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
-
No elected government will hold power in Egypt in 2012 ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by _W_ on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
-
There will be a referendum on Scottish independence ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by modulus on 2012-01-09; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by scav on 2014-09-14.
-
The bitcoin protocol will have a fatal weakness that is discovered, leading to the crash of the bitcoin economy. End of year prediction. ( 3% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by kiba on 2012-01-07; known on 2012-12-30; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-31.
-
There will be a general strike in Spain on 2012 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by modulus on 2012-01-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by modulus on 2012-03-09.
-
The Bitcoin price will hit 8 $/฿ in January 2012 UTC. ( 55% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mqrius on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.
-
General AI will not be built by 2013 ( 97% confidence; 19 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
-
Chavez will not be re-elected president of Venezuela on October 07, 2012. ( 33% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by alexguerrero on 2011-11-17; known on 2012-10-07; judged wrong by Pablo on 2012-10-08.
-
Gold will be $2000 by Jan 2012 ( 45% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by eduffy on 2011-11-03; known on 2012-01-16; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-16.
-
SpaceX to successfully dock with the ISS by January 15, 2012 ( 30% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-19; known on 2012-01-15; judged wrong by kiba on 2012-01-15.