Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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There will be a new (canon) Haruhi anime by 2013. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-20; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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LW: Rationality Boot Camp will be declared a success. ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Conditional on not buying RIM, Microsoft will license Android. —Cringely ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Herman Cain is an “art project” as described by Rachel Maddow. ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by fork on 2011-11-19; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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cousin_it will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Robin Hanson will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Nintendo launches Wii 2/Wii U ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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AOL & Yahoo to merge by 2013. ( 43% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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NGE: 3.0 will not be longer than 60 minutes ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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NGE: 4.0 will be released in 2012 ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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NGE: 3.0 will be released in 2012 ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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2012: Chinese GDP growth 8-9% —Michael Pettis ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-28; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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“Chinese debt levels will continue to rise quickly over the rest of this year and next.” —Michael Pettis ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-28; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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“USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Evangelion manga: there will be no Third Impact ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-03; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Yoshiyuki Sadamoto's Evangelion manga will be finished sometime in 2012 ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-03-03; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Intrade will close/merge/be sold by 2013. ( 8% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Panty & Stocking with Garterbelt will air on Adult Swim before 2013. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-27; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Julian Assange will not be convicted in Sweden of charges related to August 2010 ( 73% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-03; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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'Aerospace-planes enter commercial service.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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“By 2013 eBay will either (1) rename itself Paypal, or (2) spin Paypal out.” ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Google will buy Spotify ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-28; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Luke will finish his meta-ethics sequence on LW in 2012. ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-01-01.
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Half-Life 3 released in 2012. ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-31; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-01-01.
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Raymond Kurzweil will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-01-01.
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Wei Dai will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-01-01.
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By Jan 1, 2013, there will be a way to directly input your estimated probability distribution across a range of different possible quantities when making a prediction on PB. ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-01-01.
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On Jan 1, 2013, there will be 3 or fewer movies from 2011 on imdb's top 250. (down from current 6) http://www.imdb.com/chart/top ( 61% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-01-01.
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No Tobin Tax in the EU by 2013 ( 80% confidence )
Created by modulus on 2012-02-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by modulus on 2013-01-01.
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Iran will not be invaded or attacked this year ( 76% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by modulus on 2012-01-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by modulus on 2013-01-01.
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Before the end of the year, PredictionBook will offer weighted averages for the community confidence in a prediction, and/or offer an API for others to do so. ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2012-01-20; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2013-01-01.
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Subversion will not be released by 2013. ( 20% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-01-01.
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The discovery of at least one new Mersenne prime will be announced in 2011 or 2012. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-05-28; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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“Hillary Clinton to be elected President in 2012” —Intrade ( 4% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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“Michele Bachmann to be elected President in 2012” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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“Will Ron Paul to win a Republican primary/caucus in 2012?” —Intrade ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-29; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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I will improve the T >= (11/20)S bound by 2013. ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-14; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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“The Google Lunar X Prize to be won on/before 31 Dec 2012.” -intrade ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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The Republicans to control the House of Representatives after 2012 Congressional Elections – Intrade ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by fork on 2011-11-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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If Romney wins the Republican candidacy, then Obama will publicly offer him a bet sometime during the 2012 presidential campaign. This prediction will be withdrawn if the antecedent proposition is false. ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-14; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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In 2012, Clashes between North Korea and South Korea will result in fatalities, or the North Korean government will collapse. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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P != NP will not be resolved by 2013 ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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The Riemann Hypothesis will not be proven in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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General AI will not be built by 2013 ( 97% confidence; 19 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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The relationship between P and BQP will not be resolved in 2012. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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There will be improvement in efficient matrix multiplication in 2012 that will be discussed in at least one of the following blogs: Combinatorics and more, Shetl-Optimized, Godel's Lost Letter. ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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No improvement in factoring integers in a classical setting that has better time-asymptotics than the best current ones will be made in 2012 ( 85% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.