Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 58% | 67% | 78% | 91% | 91% | |
Sample Size | 18 | 24 | 39 | 32 | 65 | 11 | 189 |
Displaying all predictions made by ygert. Filter by:
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“Glasses” computing devices (peripheral or standalone – example: Google Glasses) to have sales of at least 100 million units per year by 2018. ( 50% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-20; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2020-05-15.
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USA to begin phase-out of pennies by start of 2016. ( 12% confidence; 30 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-13; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-01-01.
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The US federal budget sequester (aka “automatic cuts”) will initially take place as planned (though it may or may not be fixed by later retroactive planning). ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-03-01; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-03-01.
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Pope Benedict XVI resigned for reasons other than his health, and this will be confirmed by reliable news sources. ( 18% confidence; 18 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by stephenh on 2013-02-11; known on 2014-02-11; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-02-13.
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The Republicans will keep their US House majority after the 2014 elections ( 56% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-07; known on 2014-12-01; judged right by kuudes on 2014-11-22.
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Neither US nor Russian governments will make announcements claiming the existence of sentient aliens this year. http://www.eutimes.net/2013/01/russia-orders-obama-tell-world-about-aliens-or-we-will/ ( 98% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-01-27; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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Mandatory paternity testing in some states of the USA by 2020. ( 33% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by tomokaicho on 2013-01-28; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-02-10.
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Israeli Elections: The new government’s coalition will include Shas. ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ygert on 2013-01-24; known on 2013-03-20; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-03-20.
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Israeli Elections: The new government’s coalition will include HaBayit HaYehudi. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ygert on 2013-01-24; known on 2013-03-20; judged right by ygert on 2013-03-20.
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Israeli Elections: The new government’s coalition will include Labor. ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ygert on 2013-01-24; known on 2013-03-20; judged right by ygert on 2013-03-20.
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Israeli Elections: The new government's coalition will include Yesh Atid. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ygert on 2013-01-24; known on 2013-03-20; judged right by ygert on 2013-03-20.
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Israeli election: The new government's coalition will include Likud/Yisrael Beiteinu. ( 82% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ygert on 2013-01-24; known on 2013-03-20; judged right by ygert on 2013-03-20.
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After watching a few episodes of My Little Pony, I will decide I like it and continue watching the show. ( 64% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-01-16; known on 2013-02-15; judged right by ygert on 2013-02-08.
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By end of 2014, DA Carmen Ortiz will no longer be US Attorney for Massachusetts. ( 20% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-01-15; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.
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By the end of 2013, the total number of predictions on predictionbook.com will exceed 15,000. ( 80% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13; known on 2013-12-30; judged right by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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Economic and social collapse in the United States will progress to a point that Barack Obama will use emergency powers in order to not cede the office of the President at the end of his second term, perhaps even cancelling elections in 2016. ie Empire ( 3% confidence; 32 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by thephilosiraptor on 2013-01-13; known on 2017-01-20; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-20.
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Before 2015, it will be found (by a legal or governmental authority of the USA) that Aaron Swartz's death was not suicide. ( 3% confidence; 20 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-01-13; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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The fanfic Reunion by Rorschach's Blot will update by the begining of May. ( 75% confidence )
Created by ygert on 2013-01-06; known on 2013-05-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-04-10.
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The header backgrounds on LessWrong's Main and Discussion sites will be matched within a month. ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gokfar on 2013-01-05; known on 2013-02-05; judged wrong by gokfar on 2013-02-05.
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In HPMOR, Harry will at some point accept that souls and/or an afterlife exists. ( 34% confidence; 17 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-01-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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Bashar al-Assad will still be holding power in Syria on December 31, 2013. ( 36% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-01-01; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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The Magic: the Gathering block code named “Friends”, “Romans” and “Countrymen” will be a Large-Small-Small block. ( 75% confidence )
Created by ygert on 2012-12-16; known on 2013-12-16; judged right by ygert on 2013-07-29.
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The Magic: the Gathering card “Dark Confidant” will be reprinted in Gatecrash. ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ygert on 2012-12-16; known on 2013-01-26; judged wrong by Roxolan on 2013-01-22.
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Chapter 86 of HPMOR will be published in 2012. ( 40% confidence )
Created by ygert on 2012-12-16; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by ygert on 2012-12-17.
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There will not be made any announcement by NASA of significant discovery on Mars by rover Curiosity until the end of 2012. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by cyblifeformnode on 2012-12-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-02-16.
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The Euro won’t be the official currency in Greece at the end of 2015 ( 4% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ChristianKl on 2012-12-06; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-31.
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The Euro won't be the official currency in Greece at the end of 2013. ( 18% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ChristianKl on 2012-12-06; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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By the end of January bond and stock markets will crash. (things my dad says) ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by drethelin on 2012-12-06; known on 2013-01-30; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2013-01-30.
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Assad will remain in power in Syria until end of 2012. ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by fiftytwo on 2012-12-04; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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By 2020, Puerto Rico will be admitted to the Union ( 39% confidence; 18 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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The 2016 presidential election will be Jeb Bush v. Hillary Clinton. Yes, again! ( 14% confidence; 27 wagers; 16 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07; known on 2016-11-30; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-02-21.
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New Star Wars movie will be better than Phantom Menace and Attack of the Clones ( 70% confidence; 20 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-02; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-12-28.
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Assuming Obama wins second term, repubs will try to impeach him sometime during the his second term ( 11% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-24; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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HPMOR: The character of Harry will ultimately come to at least consider the fact that he is literally within a story. ( 10% confidence; 17 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by learnmethis on 2012-09-26; known on 2015-09-26; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.
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No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020. ( 74% confidence; 20 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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HPMoR: Quirrell killed the original Voldemort and took his position. ( 4% confidence; 19 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-07-31; known on 2014-07-31; judged wrong by player_03 on 2015-03-16.
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No new federal gun laws will be passed in 2012 as a result of the Colorado shooting ( 75% confidence; 7 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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HP MoR: The intermittent glitch in the Marauder's Map is people appearing in multiple places simultaneously due to use of Time Turners. ( 42% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by tadrinth on 2012-04-12; known on 2014-04-12; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2014. ( 52% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2015. ( 58% confidence; 28 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-01-01.
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HP MoR: Sirius Black is not in Azkaban and the person in Azkaban is Peter Pettigrew ( 60% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Sirius Black is not in Azkaban ( 66% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Narcissa Malfoy was killed by Amelia Bones ( 36% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: Narcissa Malfoy is dead ( 72% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Quirrel ( 70% confidence; 18 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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Marijuana will be legal by 2025 ( 65% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-08; known on 2025-01-01.
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The energy source formerly known as cold fusion will be generally accepted as real by end 2012. ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by waveman on 2012-01-13; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-31.
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Bashar al-Assad will not be president of Syria on Dec 31 2012 ( 36% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by georgesdelatour on 2012-01-01; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029. ( 7% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-12-01.
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Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ( 8% confidence; 31 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2035-01-01.
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In 2020, every single one of the 5 tallest buildings in the world will be located in China, Hong Kong, or Taiwan. ( 27% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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The world will exist on 2012-12-22 (day after the widely hyped end) ( 99% confidence; 43 wagers; 21 comments )
Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-22; judged right by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
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Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory. ( 4% confidence; 23 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-14; known on 2051-09-15; judged unknown by Arets Paeglis on 2011-10-10.
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“Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-12-31.
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The world will not end December 25, 2012. ( 98% confidence; 28 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Houshalter on 2010-06-13; known on 2012-12-26; judged right by Qiaochu on 2012-12-26.