Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 60% | 67% | 75% | 0% | 33% | 33% | |
Sample Size | 5 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 22 |
Displaying all predictions made by Artis. Filter by:
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Google+ will surpass Facebook in 2013 (in number of users and level of interaction) ( 16% confidence; 27 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by sameganegie on 2011-11-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2014-01-01.
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I will read “Thinking, Fast and Slow” by Daniel Kahneman within the next 4 weeks. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-28; known on 2011-11-25; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-27.
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Firefox's latest stable version number will at least double in 2012 ( 26% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by slikts on 2011-10-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by stephenh on 2012-12-13.
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The world will exist on 2012-12-22 (day after the widely hyped end) ( 99% confidence; 43 wagers; 21 comments )
Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-22; judged right by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
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“I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.” ( 9% confidence; 26 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Greece Will be Bankrupt within 6 months from today ( 26% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by niekjetten on 2011-06-18; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by procran on 2011-12-01.
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'Adobe will buy Autodesk in 2011.' —Joris Peels ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-16; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-02.
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Groupon will buy Foursquare in 2011 —Seamus Condron ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.
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Oil prices at >=$120 by Jan 2012 ( 52% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-01.
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Wikileaks will continue to exist as an organization through 2011. ( 89% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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'Hewlett-Packard will buy SAP' in 2011 —Chris O'Brien ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.
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“For all practical purposes, the Mexican state won’t survive to see 2012.” —Jeff Vail ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
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At least one current member will drop out of the Euro. ( 22% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Matt Newport on 2010-06-11; known on 2011-12-17; judged wrong by faws on 2011-12-17.