Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 65% | 67% | 73% | 88% | 91% | 80% | |
Sample Size | 1033 | 269 | 129 | 197 | 347 | 45 | 2020 |
Displaying all predictions made by themusicgod1. Filter by:
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I go to Burning Man 2017 ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-29; known on 2017-10-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-10-02.
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Kmart will file for bankruptcy by August of 2017 ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by custom on 2017-03-29; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-01.
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The New York Times stops delivering paper newspapers in 2017 ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-27; known on 2018-01-05; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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The San Francisco Bay Area will experience an earthquake in 2017 equal to or greater than that of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake ( magnitude 6.9 and a maximum Mercalli intensity of IX (Violent)) ( 27% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by custom on 2017-03-27; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2018-01-01.
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Politics, US – Paul Ryan still Speaker of the House of Representatives up to end of April. ( 73% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-03-26; known on 2017-05-01; judged right by ioannes on 2017-05-01.
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Politics, UK – Power-sharing administration established in Northern Ireland before the end of the three week deadline. ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-03-04; known on 2017-03-28; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-03-30.
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At least one Trump National Security Lottery is put on by the US federal government ( 19% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-25; known on 2023-12-31.
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I go to the Digital Identity summit 2017 ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-24; known on 2017-10-16; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-10-16.
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North Korea conducts a nuclear test in 2017 ( 66% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-03-24; known on 2018-01-15; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-09.
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2017 Mar 23 The AHCA act will not pass congress today ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-03-23; known on 2017-03-28; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-03-24.
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Until 2017-04-02 Sun: I do not set any music playing for just myself, other than as linked to or mentioned by other people; or for Deliberately Practising recitation or vocals; or incidental (e.g. YouTube video intros of videos I opened). ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-03-23; known on 2017-04-03; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-04-04.
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By 2017-04-09 Sun: I go through all my papers; get rid of the ones of which I want to get rid; and put the rest in (semi-permanent) homes. ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-03-23; known on 2017-04-10; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-04-10.
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By 2017-04-09 Sun: I go through all my books; get rid of the ones of which I want to get rid; and put the rest in (semi-)permanent homes. ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-03-23; known on 2017-04-10; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-04-10.
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By 2017-04-30 Sun: I will have implemented (in my judgement) changes to supplement timings to try to improve absorption/bioavailability. ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-03-23; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-05-01.
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The 2017 Mar 22 attack on the UK Parliament was done by a person or persons who support Islamic extremism ( 79% confidence; 7 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-03-22; known on 2017-04-12; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-03-23.
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Second date with R ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-21; known on 2017-04-15; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-04-13.
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Second date with L ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-21; known on 2017-04-15; judged right by ioannes on 2017-03-27.
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Uber will go bankrupt, dissolve, or merge with another company by the end of 2018 ( 17% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sdr on 2017-03-20; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Uber will go bankrupt, dissolve, or merge with another company by the end of 2017 ( 13% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sdr on 2017-03-20; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by sole21000 on 2018-01-01.
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North Korea conducts nuclear test ( 19% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-20; known on 2017-03-25; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-25.
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2017 Mar 20 Both of my predictions will be marked as correct ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-03-20; known on 2017-03-24; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-03-20.
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FBI Director James Comey on Monday will not claim that then President Obama wiretapped any candidate of the 2016 US Presidential Election ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-03-20; known on 2017-03-23; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-03-20.
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FBI Director James Comey on Monday will not claim that then President Obama wiretapped then candidate Trump ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-03-20; known on 2017-03-23; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-03-20.
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Ubuntu 17.10 comes with version 1.8+ of golang ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-20; known on 2017-11-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-19.
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Rachel Maddow commits suicide in 2017 ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-19; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death. ( 6% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2017-03-17; known on 2037-03-17; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-09-08.
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Politics, US – Records, forensic evidence, or sourced testimony from officials who were within the intelligence community during the previous US administration is released before the end of March 2017 supporting Trump's claim of being wiretapped. ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-03-17; known on 2017-04-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-04-02.
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This year, Predictionbook will switch its scoring to be logarithmic ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Alti Camelus on 2017-03-13; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Dapple on 2018-01-24.
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The labor force participation rate will increase above 66% at least once while Trump is on office ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-03-12; known on 2025-03-12.
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Community Project – Rationalist calendar project will have identified at least one of an event or relevant reading for every day of the year before the end of 2017-04-12. ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-03-12; known on 2017-04-13; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-04-14.
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Iraq – Mass grave at Badoush prison confirmed by sources outside Hashd al-Shaabi and contains the remains of at least 200 people by the end of 2017-03-26. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-03-12; known on 2017-03-27; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-03-31.
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I will have a gf at some point ( 81% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-03-11; known on 3001-01-01.
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I will post more on Facebook in 2017 than I did in 2016 (as judged by myself). ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-11; known on 2018-01-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-02.
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Second date with L ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-10; known on 2017-04-15; judged right by ioannes on 2017-04-13.
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Trump will be removed from office before his term is complete. ( 29% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sdd167 on 2017-03-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-01-04.
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There will be a standalone Wikipedia page about GiveWell https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GiveWell as of March 31, 2017. ( 54% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-09; known on 2017-04-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-02.
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Resolute gets treble damages against Greenpeace thanks to RICO (from 2017 case) ( 49% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-08; known on 2023-12-31.
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One+ date this week ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-07; known on 2017-03-13; judged right by ioannes on 2017-03-13.
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I will kill myself before graduation ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-03-05; known on 2017-07-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-07-01.
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The Turkish constitutional referendum that makes the country a presidential republic will pass. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-03-03; known on 2017-04-18; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2017-04-17.
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GiveWell will publish its annual report on money moved and web traffic for 2016 on or before May 1, 2017. ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-01; known on 2017-05-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-02.
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The EA Funds team will decide to continue with the EA Funds after the initial three-month period. ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-01; known on 2017-07-02; judged right by ioannes on 2017-07-02.
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Parents' loan payment > $999 ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-28; known on 2017-04-03; judged right by ioannes on 2017-04-03.
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Gavin Christopher Newsom becomes POTUS (or equivalent title to whatever union california is part of) ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-28; known on 2104-03-01.
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Kim Jong Un is Supreme Leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea on November 15, 2017 ( 92% confidence; 22 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-27; known on 2017-11-16; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-11-16.
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Kim Jong Un is Supreme Leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea on July 15, 2017 ( 94% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-27; known on 2017-07-16; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-07-16.
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Austin Petersen will be the Libertarian Party's nominee for president in 2020 ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Greenham on 2017-02-24; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-12.
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Sensors/cameras in london public sewers, at least one UK citizen fined for putting tampons down the toilet ( 51% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-22; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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Zootopia wins 2017 Oscar for Best Animated Feature ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-21; known on 2017-02-27; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-02-27.
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Moana wins 2017 Oscar for Best Animated Feature ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-21; known on 2017-02-27; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-02-27.
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Kubo and the Two Strings wins 2017 Oscar for Best Animated Feature ( 45% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-21; known on 2017-02-27; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-02-27.
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Lasso will win the Ecuadorian election ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by elephantower on 2017-02-21; known on 2017-02-21; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-03-01.
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American ROE (in any relevant theatre) amended to allow US troops to fire on government-associated pakistanis within pakistan borders ( 18% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-01-01.
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Mammophant embryo created successfully ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by penten on 2017-02-20; known on 2019-02-20; judged wrong by AlexLamson on 2019-06-27.
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Facebook market cap will not drop below $200 billion at any time in 2017. ( 74% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-02-20; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-02.
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Facebook will report more than 1.6 billion DAUs for December 2018, compared to 1.23 billion for December 2016 at https://investor.fb.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2017/Facebook-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2016-Results/default.aspx ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-02-20; known on 2019-02-07; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2019-06-23.
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Facebook will report more than 1.5 billion DAUs for December 2018, compared to 1.23 billion for December 2016 at https://investor.fb.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2017/Facebook-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2016-Results/default.aspx ( 69% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-02-20; known on 2019-02-07; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2019-06-23.
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Facebook will report more than 1.4 billion DAUs for December 2017, compared to 1.23 billion for December 2016 at https://investor.fb.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2017/Facebook-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2016-Results/default.aspx ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-02-20; known on 2018-02-07; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2018-02-02.
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Facebook will report more than 1.3 billion DAUs for December 2017, compared to 1.23 billion for December 2016 at https://investor.fb.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2017/Facebook-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2016-Results/default.aspx ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-02-20; known on 2018-02-07; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2018-02-02.
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Politics – More than 100,000 protesters marching in Washington DC on Monday 23rd January ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-01-21; known on 2017-01-24.
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Politics – More than 10,000 protesters marching in Washington DC on Monday 23rd January ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-01-21; known on 2017-01-24.
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Trump gives another solo press conference in February 2017 ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-17; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-03-02.
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1-5-10-15 income tax passes in the US ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-17; known on 2021-12-31; judged wrong by stepan on 2022-01-03.
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0% corporate tax in US ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-17; known on 2021-12-31; judged wrong by stepan on 2022-01-03.
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I will not check news.ycombinator.com or mirror more than twice a day from now until 2017-03-16 ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-02-16; known on 2017-03-16; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-03-16.
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altyn currency of at least 2 countries ( 50% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-16; known on 2025-12-31.
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UKIP will win the Stoke-on-Trent by-election ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by elephantower on 2017-02-16; known on 2017-03-09; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-02-24.
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“Logan” rotten tomatoes aggregate score is < 80% ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-15; known on 2017-03-15; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-03-15.
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New 12.5%+ tax on all goods entering the US from china (post jan 2017) ( 51% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-15; known on 2021-01-01.
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Steve Bannon leaves the Trump Administration in 2017. ( 31% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-14; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-10-30.
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I will go to the gym 30 more times this semester. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by azax1 on 2017-02-14; known on 2017-05-25; judged wrong by azax1 on 2017-05-25.
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My brain inflammation will subside before 2017-02-22 ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-02-13; known on 2017-02-22; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-02-20.
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Oroville Dam breaks or overflows in 2017. ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-13; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2018-01-02.
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There will be at least five times more human trafficking arrests in the United States during the four years after Trump became president than the four years prior. ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-02-13; known on 2020-01-20; judged wrong by regex on 2020-01-22.
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Kellyanne Conway stops having a formal role in the Trump administration by end of 2017. ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
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>2,000 American troops deployed in Syria in 2017 ( 24% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-09; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-02.
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Sarah Palin named ambassador to Canada ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-09; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Wind will produce 7% or more of consumed US power by 2022. Linked to my believe the US will have no transcontinental transmission strategy by then. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by atomicspaceman on 2017-02-08; known on 2022-03-05; judged right by amadeu on 2022-04-21.
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Slack to allow unpaid slacks to view messages older than 10,000 messages old sometime before 2020 ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2017-02-07; known on 2021-01-01.
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I go on at least one date from 2017-02-06 to 2017-03-01 ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-07; known on 2017-03-01; judged right by ioannes on 2017-02-10.
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Trump Approval >50% by nov 1, 2020 ( 29% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-05; known on 2020-11-07; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-07.
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Trump announces somewhere that he eventually won the “Muslim ban” court fight ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-02-05; known on 2017-06-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-06-01.
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PAP becomes privatized and murders former shenzenites ( 58% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-04; known on 2021-02-04.
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CPC implements UBI ( 24% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-04; known on 2021-02-04; judged wrong by Morpheus on 2021-02-15.
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La La Land wins best picture at the 2017 Oscars ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by penten on 2017-02-03; known on 2017-02-28; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-02-27.
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“the Milo shtick by 2020 will be to come out as straight, healed by the soothing words of Mike Pence, or something” ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-02-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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There will be a week during which it is more common to buy food with gold than any other form of money (e.g., USD) in some US settlement with at least 1000 people in 2017. ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by aseyfarth on 2017-01-31; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by aseyfarth on 2018-01-02.
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Trump will not be impeached ( 78% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2025-01-30; judged wrong by regex on 2019-12-19.
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Trump will win a second term ( 46% confidence; 74 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2020-11-08; judged wrong by regex on 2020-11-20.
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Trump is assassinated during his first or second term. ( 7% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by equivrel on 2017-01-29; known on 2024-02-01.
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Politics – President Trump rescinds at least one of Obama's executive orders relating to non-discrimination against LGBT people before end of February 2017. ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-01-29; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-03-01.
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Politics – President Trump or their representative in some manner orders Green Card holders with a nationality currently barred from entry to be permitted to enter the United States by end of 2017-02-05. ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-01-29; known on 2017-02-06; judged right by playablecharacter on 2017-02-11.
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Politics – President Trump rescinds the Executive Order suspending entry to the United States of Iranian nationals by end of 2017-02-05. ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-01-29; known on 2017-02-06; judged wrong by aseyfarth on 2017-02-06.
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Donald Trump is still President of the United States at the end of 2017 UTC ( 85% confidence; 30 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-29; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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Google widely seen (by investors, wall street) as having successfully solved the issue of how to monetise a voice-centric world (including if such a world does not occur, or they avoid the problem). ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Temeraire on 2017-01-28; known on 2021-01-01.
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US military use of torture, extrajudicial imprisonment and killing, and mass surveillance all increased by US midterms. ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Temeraire on 2017-01-28; known on 2019-01-01.
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Donald Trump successfully appoints >1 Supreme Court Justice who support increasing abortion restrictions, repealing same-sex marriage, and enforcing state-led voter suppression [sic] before US midterms ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Temeraire on 2017-01-28; known on 2019-01-01.
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Donald Trump maintains effective control (including through close family) of his businesses through US midterms. ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Temeraire on 2017-01-28; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-12.
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The other boat gets in a difficult situation next Thursday (“difficult situation” = run aground, crash, man overboard, medical emergency onboard, etc.) ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-20; known on 2017-01-27.
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One of Scott Gottleib, Jim O’Neill, or Balaji Srinavasan become FDA commissioner by April 1st 2017 ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-26; known on 2017-04-01; judged right by ioannes on 2017-04-01.