Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 100% | 100% | 67% | 89% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 17 |
Displaying all predictions made by daccount10. Filter by:
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Politics – More than 10,000 protesters marching in Washington DC on Monday 23rd January ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-01-21; known on 2017-01-24.
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Lauri Love outlives the United States of America ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-19; known on 2150-01-01.
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The 2020 presidential election will be Donald Trump v. Oprah Winfrey. ( 3% confidence; 25 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2017-01-16; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
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Mark Zuckerberg will win the 2024 USA presidential elections. ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-14; known on 2024-10-16.
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Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026 ( 3% confidence; 18 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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No human beats the best Go AI in an unhandicapped competitive game by 2020 ( 90% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by mortehu on 2017-01-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state ( 0% confidence; 35 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-10; known on 2025-01-01.
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Less Wrong renaissance attempt will seem less (rather than more) successful by end of 2017 ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-15; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2018-08-30.
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Donald Trump’s approval rating at the end of 2017 is lower than fifty percent ( 83% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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No race riot in the US killing > 5 people in 2017 ( 66% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
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Trump administration does not initiate extra prosecution of Hillary Clinton (in 2017) ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
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Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2017 ( 93% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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Bitcoin will end 2017 higher than $1000 ( 71% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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The stock market will go down under President Trump (Conditional on him having a 4 year term, Inauguration-Inauguration) ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2021-01-01.
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Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034 ( 0% confidence; 27 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-10; known on 2034-01-01.
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2017 will be the hottest year on record. ( 52% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Osuniev on 2016-11-21; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by Osuniev on 2018-02-02.
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President Trump jailed ( 1% confidence; 23 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2017-11-09; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-11-09.
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Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK —Charlie Stross ( 2% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-10-07; known on 2026-10-07.
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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2021. ( 46% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-09; known on 2022-06-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-12-05.
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The Boy Scouts will admit openly atheist scouts before 2050 ( 79% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-07-28; known on 2050-01-01.
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No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040. ( 86% confidence; 24 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-19; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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US 2016 Presidential election to be Trump v. Sanders ( 5% confidence; 40 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-17; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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Obama signs executive order legalizing marijuana on the last day of his presidency. ( 4% confidence; 19 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by RESO on 2015-02-05; known on 2017-01-20; judged wrong by RESO on 2017-01-20.