Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 47% | 60% | 72% | 81% | 91% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 15 | 134 | 121 | 169 | 186 | 11 | 636 |
Displaying all predictions made by elephantower. Filter by:
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Conditional on Egypt Flight 804 being a terrorist plot, the weak link will not be France or French airport security ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-07; known on 2021-06-16.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, not won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 0 ( 60% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.
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Donald Trump will NOT be re-elected ( 55% confidence; 26 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by tcsmithbiz@yahoo.com on 2019-12-23; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2020-11-07.
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Pete Buttigieg will win the Democratic Nomination ( 14% confidence; 18 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by tcsmithbiz@yahoo.com on 2019-12-23; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-09-06.
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If Joe Biden wins the 2020 democratic bid for president then Donald Trump will win the 2020 election. ( 50% confidence; 29 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by jprettner on 2019-06-28; known on 2019-08-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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<1000 reported war casualties in Central African Republic in 2016 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-12; known on 2016-12-31.
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MoV in GA GOP gov primary over 20% ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by elephantower on 2018-07-30; known on 2018-07-30; judged right by elephantower on 2018-07-30.
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shafer wins lt gov primary ( 90% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2018-07-30; known on 2018-07-30; judged wrong by elephantower on 2018-07-30.
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McBath wins GA-07 Dem primary ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by elephantower on 2018-07-30; known on 2018-07-30; judged right by elephantower on 2018-07-30.
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jones wins special election primary in MI-13 ( 70% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2018-07-30; known on 2018-08-30; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.
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el-sayed wins primary ( 15% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2018-07-30; known on 2018-07-30; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.
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david kim wins primary in ga-07 ( 30% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2018-07-19; known on 2018-07-26; judged wrong by elephantower on 2018-07-30.
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john james wins mi senate gop primary ( 80% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2018-07-19; known on 2018-08-19; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.
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Rashida Tlaib loses primary (bet on it) ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by elephantower on 2018-07-17; known on 2018-08-17; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.
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dc min wage referendum passes ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by elephantower on 2018-07-17; known on 2018-07-17; judged wrong by elephantower on 2018-07-17.
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resource booker updated ( 10% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-10-24; known on 2017-10-24; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-10-24.
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bain event invite ( 10% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-10-10; known on 2017-10-10; judged right by elephantower on 2017-10-10.
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brown shot gamby ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by elephantower on 2017-10-02; known on 2017-12-12; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-11-13.
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A stereo thief shot Gamby ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by elephantower on 2017-10-02; known on 2017-12-12; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-11-13.
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Russell was involved in the Gamby shooting (not exclusive with Ray shooting) ( 20% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-10-02; known on 2017-12-12; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-11-13.
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Ray shot Neal Gamby (Vice Principals Season 2) ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by elephantower on 2017-10-02; known on 2017-12-12; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-11-13.
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Dan Malloy is a Dem ( 70% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-08-31; known on 2017-08-31; judged right by elephantower on 2017-08-31.
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download time won't go back over 1 min ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by elephantower on 2017-06-20; known on 2017-06-20; judged right by elephantower on 2017-06-20.
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Draupadi Murmu will be nominated for the presidency by the BJP ( 20% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-06-15; known on 2017-07-15; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-08-31.
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nh legislature democrat-controlled ( 40% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-05-31; known on 2017-05-31; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-05-31.
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tracy hickman is female ( 80% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-05-28; known on 2017-05-28; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-05-28.
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willow tree instrumental song ( 70% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-05-25; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-05-25.
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bullock won lake county ( 60% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-05-20; known on 2017-05-20; judged right by elephantower on 2017-05-20.
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The House Will Have A Democratic Majority after the 2018 election. ( 69% confidence; 14 wagers )
Created by Shuffledrive on 2017-05-20; known on 2018-11-06; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-09.
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buy machines embodying improved TFP = diminishing marginal returns to capital ( 60% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-04-15; known on 2017-04-15; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-06-15.
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Uber will go bankrupt, dissolve, or merge with another company by the end of 2018 ( 17% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sdr on 2017-03-20; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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will get 100% on quiz ( 40% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-03-20; known on 2017-03-20; judged right by elephantower on 2017-03-20.
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Trump will be removed from office before his term is complete. ( 29% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sdd167 on 2017-03-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-01-04.
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4d ( 70% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-03-05; known on 2017-03-05; judged right by elephantower on 2017-03-05.
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3b ( 0% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-03-05; known on 2017-03-05; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-03-05.
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3d ( 90% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-03-05; known on 2017-03-05; judged right by elephantower on 2017-03-05.
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3c ( 0% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-03-05; known on 2017-03-05; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-03-05.
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3b ( 60% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-03-05; known on 2017-03-05; judged right by elephantower on 2017-03-05.
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3a ( 90% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-03-05; known on 2017-03-05; judged right by elephantower on 2017-03-05.
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2e ( 90% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-03-05; known on 2017-03-05; judged right by elephantower on 2017-03-05.
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2d ( 80% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-03-05; known on 2017-03-05; judged right by elephantower on 2017-03-05.
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1b ( 5% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-03-05; known on 2017-03-05; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-03-05.
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Lasso will win the Ecuadorian election ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by elephantower on 2017-02-21; known on 2017-02-21; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-03-01.
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UKIP will win the Stoke-on-Trent by-election ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by elephantower on 2017-02-16; known on 2017-03-09; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-02-24.
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Steve Bannon leaves the Trump Administration in 2017. ( 31% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-14; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-10-30.
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Oroville Dam breaks or overflows in 2017. ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-13; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2018-01-02.
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class on time ( 60% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-02-02; known on 2017-02-02; judged right by elephantower on 2017-02-02.
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door shutting ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by elephantower on 2017-01-26; known on 2017-01-26; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-01-26.
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AFD will get <30% of votes in Germany's federal elections. ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukas11 on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-10-23; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2017-10-30.
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No terrorist attack in the in any First World country (Western Europe, US, Japan, Australia) will kill > 100 people in 2017 ( 60% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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kinshana is a typo ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by elephantower on 2016-11-20; known on 2016-11-21; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-11-20.
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over 20 people show up ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by elephantower on 2016-11-16; known on 2016-11-16; judged right by elephantower on 2016-11-16.
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Clinton wins at least one of the following: AK, GA, MO ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-10-11; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Major (>100 death toll) terrorist attack in Europe (all present and past EEA members) this year. ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-02.
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email was about grade ( 20% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2016-09-11; known on 2016-09-11; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-09-11.
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Hillary Clinton wins all 112 electoral votes of the Northeast (New England, NY, NJ, DE, PA, MD, DC). ( 42% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2016-09-08; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Open Phil's ratio of grants between global catastrophic risks and (human-focused) US policy will be higher in 2018 than in 2016. ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-09-07; known on 2019-03-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2019-03-05.
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Hillary Clinton will win the presidential election ( 71% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by ytarko on 2016-09-01; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by bendini on 2016-11-09.
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I will not watch any new episodes of Dark Matter before 2017 ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-08-31; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-31.
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HRC wins at least one of the following: AZ, GA, MO, MT, SC. ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-08-28; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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joe responded ( 20% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2016-08-21; known on 2016-08-21; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-08-21.
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Quora will be bankrupt or acquired by a third party before 2020. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by sflicht on 2016-08-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by sflicht on 2020-01-01.
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Hillary Clinton will win the United States' Presidential race ( 67% confidence; 15 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by BigRaims on 2016-08-16; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Hillary wins South Carolina ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-08-11; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Pat McCrory will be re-elected governor ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by predictit on 2016-08-11; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-11-10.
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The Republicans win the 2016 Florida senate race ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-08-10; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Hillary Clinton wins Georgia ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-08-10; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-11-09.
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Hillary Clinton will win Utah ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-08-10; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-11-09.
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The winner of the 2016 presidential election will recieve over 400 EVs ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-08-10; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Conditional on a leadership election where Corbyn is not on the ballot, Labour splits into two parties ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-13; known on 2020-12-31.
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Clinton wins entire eastern seaboard from Maine to Florida. ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-08-09; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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One of John McCain or Paul Ryan will publicly withdraw support for Donald Trump in 2 months ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by hoka on 2016-08-09; known on 2016-10-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-10-08.
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The Democrats will win the Nevada senate race ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-08-05; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Trump will drop out of the Presidential race before Aug 31st ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-08-05; known on 2016-08-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-08-31.
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The Republican Party wins AZ in the 2016 presidential election ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-08-03; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by elephantower on 2016-11-10.
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The Democratic Party wins NC in the 2016 presidential election ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-08-03; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Republicans win between 218 and 230 house seats in 2016 ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-08-02; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Republicans win between 231 and 240 house seats in 2016 ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by elephantower on 2016-08-02; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-11-13.
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Blunt (R-MO) will win re-election to the US Senate ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by predictit on 2016-08-02; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Trump will not lead Clinton in the RCP average by more than 5% at any point in the 2016 election. ( 85% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-08-01; known on 2016-12-16; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-09.
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If the Republican convention goes to the second ballot, Ted Cruz will secure the nomination ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-04-16; known on 2016-08-01.
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At least one fatality, Kent-state style(though not necessarily at a university), where national guard kills protester in US ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-31; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2022-05-16.
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At least one journalist/blogger jailed for criticizing President Trump ( 18% confidence; 9 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-31; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sflicht on 2021-01-02.
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What is today known as the 2016 DNC leak will be generally agreed upon to have been hacked by a Russian Government operation. Similar to how the NYTimes says (but both governments deny) that Stuxnet was a joint US/Israel operation. ( 93% confidence; 5 wagers; 21 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-31; known on 2066-07-30; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-10-07.
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Pokemon Go will descend to <15M users by 08/20 ( 64% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by sungk2048 on 2016-07-25; known on 2016-08-20; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-08-21.
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Le Pen elected president of france 2017 ( 28% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-07.
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Conditional on border checkpoints being set up along the UK-Ireland border, there will be an attack on the checkpoints or border guards ( 64% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-22; known on 2020-12-16.
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Theresa May triggers Article 50 without the explicit support of Sturgeon, the Scottish parliament, or a second referendum ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-22; known on 2018-01-16; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-31.
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The Hometrack London house price index will be lower by the end of 2018 than today ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-22; known on 2018-12-16; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-02-05.
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Border checkpoints will be set up along the UK/Ireland land border by 2020 ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-22; known on 2020-12-16; judged wrong by blackRust on 2021-01-16.
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I will pass my exams ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Shekerev on 2016-07-21; known on 2016-10-16.
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Katie McGinty will be elected to the Senate ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-07-20; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Ted Cruz will be linked to a sex scandal. ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-16; known on 2036-07-17.
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Pence is younger than 65 years old ( 80% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-16; known on 2016-07-16; judged right by elephantower on 2016-07-16.
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Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee for President in 2016. ( 52% confidence; 88 wagers; 55 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-14; known on 2016-07-20; judged right by elephantower on 2016-07-16.
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Conditioned on UK leaving the EU, Scotland will be in progress towards, or have achieved, the status of an independent state (or quasi-independent, e.g. with shared military) by the end of 2020. ( 55% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by blackRust on 2016-07-14; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by blackRust on 2021-01-16.
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Conditional on the UK Government seeking permission from Parliament to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, the vote will pass. ( 61% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by blackRust on 2016-07-14; known on 2017-05-14; judged right by splorridge on 2017-04-03.
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Jim Justice will win the WV governor race in 2016 ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by elephantower on 2016-11-10.
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Mia Love will be re-elected to the House of Representatives from Utah's 4th district ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by elephantower on 2016-11-10.
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Paul Ryan will be the next Speaker of the House ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-07-14; known on 2017-01-20; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-01-20.