Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 52% | 60% | 72% | 78% | 93% | 97% | |
Sample Size | 126 | 209 | 180 | 240 | 430 | 346 | 1531 |
Displaying all predictions made by Tapetum-Lucidum. Filter by:
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Joe Biden is physically present in the Oval Office on one or more days between Jan 20, 2021-Jan 31, 2021 ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-23; known on 2021-02-01; judged right by kuudes on 2021-04-01.
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One or more participants in the Twitter hack is revealed to have been an employee of the Russian government ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-18; known on 2028-01-31.
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[US politics] Both the presidential and VP nominees for the Democratic party to be women ( 10% confidence; 23 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-09; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
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Trump to comment on Kanye's presidential bid ( 58% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-05; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-11.
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Harvard University will have in-person classes for Spring 2021 ( 47% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-03; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2021-10-13.
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Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31 ( 13% confidence; 27 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by daveisright on 2020-07-02; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2020-12-31.
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Another Supreme Court justice will retire before the end of the year. ( 43% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-01; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-12-31.
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A COVID vaccine will be widely available in the USA by the end of January 2021 where widely available is defined as given to more than 10,000 people not as part of a clinical trial. ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by krazemon on 2020-06-28; known on 2021-02-01; judged right by Deepak on 2021-02-03.
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North Korea floats leaflets over the border to South Korea ( 58% confidence )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-23; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-11-08.
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Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-21; known on 2029-01-01.
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Joe Biden will pick Stacey Abrams as his running mate. ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-21; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-12.
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gwern will get married by 2090 ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-20; known on 2090-01-01.
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Biden wins in 2020 US elections (just ticking off boring politics things) ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by akarlin on 2020-06-17; known on 2020-11-15; judged right by akarlin on 2020-11-15.
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Elizabeth Warren is Joe Biden's running mate ( 27% confidence; 14 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-15; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-08-12.
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Trump wins 2020 election ( 38% confidence; 21 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Deepak on 2020-06-11; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-11-07.
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Cal Newport changes his name to something that doesn't sound like a state, a cigarette, or a beach. ( 5% confidence )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2021-06-11.
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North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020 ( 5% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Will Columbia University resume in-person classes for Fall 2020? ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2020-09-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2021-10-13.
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Some vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 will have successfully passed phase 3 trials by the 15th of October 2020. ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mathieu_Putz on 2020-05-28; known on 2020-10-22; judged wrong by Mathieu_Putz on 2021-03-21.
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[Biden's VP pick will be] Elizabeth Warren ( 28% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2020-05-22; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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Donald Trump will be elected president in the 2020 presidential elections. ( 50% confidence; 18 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by korakos on 2020-04-30; known on 2020-11-05; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-07.
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Nicotine will be found to help fight coronavirus ( 2% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by evand on 2020-04-26; known on 2021-04-26; judged wrong by evand on 2021-04-26.
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Kim Jong Un confirmed dead or vegetative state by end of June 2020 ( 23% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-04-26; known on 2020-06-30; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-01-04.
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There will be a flood of positive news stories about Hydroxychloroquin the week after the presidential election ( 15% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jgvergo on 2020-04-23; known on 2020-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10.
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One or more members of predictionbook acknowledges that excluding features with statistically significant coefficients when constructing statistical models is a form pseudo-rationality, and admits below to being guilty of this. ( 45% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-04-22; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-01.
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EPA finalizes a change to how air pollution deaths are calculated, and this change results in a decrease in the number of estimated deaths ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-05-21; known on 2020-01-01.
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Remdesivir approved by the FDA by the end of July 2020 ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-04-18; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-05-02.
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Schools in Germany will open again in April ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2020-04-14; known on 2020-06-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-05-02.
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Bars and clubs will open again in The Netherlands in 2020. ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Stucwerk on 2020-04-13; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-11-08.
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US Corona-virus lock downs will end in May ( 57% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gunner1313 on 2020-04-11; known on 2020-04-25; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-01.
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“The Essential Workers” (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020. ( 40% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-04-10; known on 2020-12-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-12-15.
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If Sweden doesn't implement lockdowns, then their per capita coronavirus deaths will exceed the average of the other Nordic countries by 25% or more. ( 82% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2020-04-10; known on 2020-07-10; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-07-11.
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UVXY will hit $65 again by April 17th ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by bradleybossard on 2020-04-07; known on 2020-04-17; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-04-18.
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Boris Johnson dies by end of April 2020 (due to Coronavirus) ( 11% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-04-06; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2020-05-01.
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San Francisco will extend the shelter-in-place order beyond May 3rd ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2020-04-01; known on 2020-05-04; judged right by jacobgreenleaf on 2020-05-02.
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S&P 500 index dips below 2000 in year of 2020 ( 32% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-03-27; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-12-31.
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Face masks as fashion accessoir becomes a thing this year ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-03-25; known on 2020-12-30; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-01.
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< 35M coronavirus deaths ( 86% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by kjaques on 2020-03-19; known on 2020-07-31; judged right by kjaques on 2020-07-31.
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<2M coronavirus deaths. ( 25% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by kjaques on 2020-03-19; known on 2020-07-31; judged right by kjaques on 2020-07-31.
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[For coronavirus 2019] Mortality rate of total pop in America will be under .01% by 2021. ( 31% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by lazarus on 2020-03-05; known on 2020-06-16; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-23.
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[For coronavirus 2019] Fear will subside by June 15th, 2020. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lazarus on 2020-03-05; known on 2020-06-16; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-18.
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[For coronavirus 2019] most danger will be gone by June 15th, 2020. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lazarus on 2020-03-05; known on 2020-06-16; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-23.
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SPX reaches 4000 by the end of 2021 ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-03-10; known on 2021-12-31; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2021-10-01.
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Over 50 Australians die from COVID-19 by 30 June 2020, as reported by the Department of Health ( 79% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sjy on 2020-03-02; known on 2020-06-30; judged right by sjy on 2020-05-17.
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At 30, I will have never been married. ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ejh3141 on 2020-02-20; known on 2031-02-04.
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US to withdraw from Five Eyes, conditional on UK decision to incorporate Huawei technologies into their 5G telecom infrastructure ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-02-18; known on 2025-01-01.
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Deepmind claims to pass the Turing test by the end of 2023 ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-02-14; known on 2024-01-01.
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Personal – I get hold of a key to the ground floor bike storage in my apartment building by deadline. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-01; known on 2020-02-10; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-02-12.
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Personal – My piped-in heating and hot water system is fixed by deadline. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-01; known on 2020-03-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-02-08.
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Politics, UK – UK government changes its decision to permit Huawei components in non-core parts of the UK's 5G network before 2020-02 EOM. ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-01; known on 2020-03-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-03-01.
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[Conditional on Elon Musk not becoming impaired cognitively, at least one person will depart for Mars with the intent/expectation of not returning, by ] January 1, 2035 ( 23% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-01-23; known on 2035-01-01.
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[Conditional on Elon Musk not becoming impaired cognitively, at least one person will depart for Mars with the intent/expectation of not returning, by ] January 1, 2030 ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-01-23; known on 2035-01-01.
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[Conditional on Elon Musk not becoming impaired cognitively, at least one person will depart for Mars with the intent/expectation of not returning, by ] January 1, 2025 ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-01-23; known on 2035-01-01.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 100,000 ( 37% confidence; 37 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-04-10.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 50,000 ( 35% confidence; 30 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by nortriptyline2 on 2020-04-03.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 100 million ( 0% confidence; 29 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 50 million ( 1% confidence; 34 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 10 million ( 8% confidence; 36 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 5 million ( 12% confidence; 34 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 1 million ( 40% confidence; 45 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-09.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 500,000 ( 44% confidence; 46 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-29.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 10,000 ( 56% confidence; 45 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-03-20.
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There will be more than 8000 human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be reported before 2021 ( 71% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-30.
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Trump war with China, Trump removal, or delayed/non-existent elections by 2020. Details in comments. ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-20; known on 2021-01-21; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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Lab-cultured red protein that emulates beef will become commonplace, and sold in typical grocery stores, *by 2025*. ( 29% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sungk2048 on 2020-01-18; known on 2025-01-19.
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[Personal] I will get a cat (more likely a pair of buddies) before 2025. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sungk2048 on 2020-01-18; known on 2025-01-19.
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California has an earthquake with either one death or >$1B in damage in 2020 ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-18; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.
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Google's decision to remove support for third-party cookies in Chrome will be ruled an antitrust violation in the United States before 2025. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-17; known on 2025-01-01.
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The Democratic Nominee will be someone other than Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Yang, Klobuchar, or Bloomberg ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2020-07-15; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-07-16.
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Mike Bloomberg is the US 2020 Democratic Party nominee ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2020-07-15; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-07-16.
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Amy Klobuchar is the US 2020 Democratic nominee ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2020-07-15; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-07-16.
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Nicolás Maduro will be president of Venezuela on Dec. 31, 2020 ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.
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Chinese People's Liberation Army to be (overtly) deployed to Hong Kong by 2020-01-23 ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2020-01-24; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-01-25.
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Personal – My heating has been fixed by 2020-01-25 ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-11; known on 2020-01-26; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-01-27.
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Politics – Iran strikes, and does not deny striking, a US military base between 2020-01-12 and 2020-02-02 ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-11; known on 2020-02-03; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-02-03.
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Waymo offers rides to the airport this year. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2020-01-08; known on 2020-12-30; judged wrong by qznc on 2021-01-01.
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[Personal] I will read at least 16 books in 2020 Q1 ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2020-01-07; known on 2020-04-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-18.
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[Personal] I will read at least 32 books in 2020 H1 ( 73% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2020-01-07; known on 2020-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-05-29.
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[Personal] I will read at least 48 books in 2020 Q1-Q3 ( 73% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2020-01-07; known on 2020-10-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Personal] I will read at least 64 books in 2020 ( 72% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2020-01-07; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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in four months, the consensus among the national security community will be that we (i.e., the US) are not any more meaningfully said to be “at war” with Iran than we are now on 5 Jan 2020. ( 65% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-06; known on 2020-05-06; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-05-06.
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The U.S. will re-institute the draft during this decade. ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2020-01-05; known on 2030-01-01.
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There is a base on the surface of the Moon and there is always someone there. ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-01-01.
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[The Economist predicts:] Greta Thunberg wins Nobel peace prize ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-10-09.
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[The Economist predicts:] Bitcoin price ends year below $7,500 ( 40% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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January 2020 VIX call at 22 will be in the money ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-01-01; known on 2020-01-31; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-01-31.
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VC Culture will die by 2040 ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by optimaton on 2019-12-30; known on 2040-01-01.
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[AWS] re:invent 2020 will announce the next iteration of DeepRacer – head to head combat robot competitions (think battle bots) ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by bly on 2019-12-03; known on 2020-12-16; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-18.
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Pete Buttigieg will win the democratic primary ( 17% confidence; 18 wagers )
Created by skuthus on 2019-11-27; known on 2020-06-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-17.
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My November 2020 self will think Brexit is on net bad (ALL things considered) ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-11-20; known on 2020-11-20.
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Vice President Mike Pence to make any public comment regarding the impeachment hearings ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-11-18; known on 2019-12-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-12-11.
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PLA to use force against protesters in Hong Kong before 2020-01-01 ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-11-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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Additional predictions appear, written in Spanish. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-11-12; known on 2019-12-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-12-08.
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[Cato: The number of predictions in December 2019 by Cato to be exactly] 13 or more ( 64% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-11-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-07.
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[In 2020 Conor McGregor's first UFC fight to be] against Georges St-Pierre ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-25; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-21.
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PG&E blackouts resume before the end of this week ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-10-22; known on 2019-10-26; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-10-24.
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The Senate to vote on impeachment of the 45th president before the end of June 2020 ( 86% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-10-19; known on 2020-07-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-02-04.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] Hang Seng (now 26307) ( 52% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] CAC 40 (now 5628) ( 48% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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Rick Perry to testify publicly before a committee in Congress as part of impeachment inquiry ( 72% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-10-10; known on 2020-11-20; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-02-04.