Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 33% | 38% | 53% | 92% | 96% | 94% | |
Sample Size | 3 | 8 | 17 | 26 | 45 | 17 | 116 |
Displaying all predictions made by Ken. Filter by:
-
Usain Bolt will leave a positive doping test before or during the London Olympics ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-09-03; known on 2012-09-03; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-08-13.
-
By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ( 13% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-02; known on 2035-01-01.
-
By 2025, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-02; known on 2025-01-01.
-
By 2020, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
-
2013-2014: Chinese GDP growth <8% —Michael Pettis ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
-
Bitcoin stays >= $60 for at least 72 hours, any time before 2013-01-01 UTC ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
-
“Dow Jones to close ON or ABOVE 12000 on 30 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-16; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by faws on 2012-01-01.
-
“Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 16% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
-
“Hamas accepts Israel's right to exist before midnight ET on 30 Sep 2011” —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-30.
-
“Magnitude 9.0 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
-
“Magnitude 8.0 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
-
“Hillary Clinton to be elected President in 2012” —Intrade ( 4% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
-
Ron Paul will be dead by 2017. ( 22% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
-
The US Mint will mint one or more high-value coins ($100K+/coin) before 2011-09-15 ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-07-30; known on 2011-09-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-15.
-
A 1MW cold-fusion reactor will NOT be demonstrated in October this year. ( 93% confidence; 18 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by scav on 2011-07-28; known on 2011-10-31; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-11-03.
-
'Google will buy Twitter' in 2011 —Chris O'Brien ( 18% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.
-
“I would put the odds of an independent [Bloomberg] candidacy for President in 2012 or 2016 at probably sixty to seventy per cent” —Joe Trippi ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-09; known on 2016-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-06-01.
-
'Existing currencies are abolished. The “mega-watt-hour” becomes the universal unit of exchange.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 0% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
-
'Most phone calls are made via the Internet' in 2014 ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2015-01-21.
-
“By 2050 Baidu.com will surpass Google.com and become world's number 1 search engine.” —Yan Bashkin ( 30% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-30; known on 2050-01-01.
-
A state will try to secede from the US. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
-
“Within ten years there will be another $200 billion+ Wall Street Bailout” —James Miller ( 40% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
-
“Within ten years the U.S. repudiates its debt either officially or with an inflation rate of over 100% for one year” —James Miller ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
-
A general-purpose artificial intelligence comparable to or better than a human will not have been developed by the beginning of 2020. ( 82% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Richard_Kennaway on 2010-08-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by MultiplyByZer0 on 2020-06-12.
-
“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.” ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2040-01-01.
-
“By 2018 the € will not be the legal currency of France, Italy and Germany.” ( 17% confidence; 14 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
-
China will land a man on Mars by 2050. ( 43% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.
-
“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.” ( 41% confidence; 28 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.
-
“Within a decade Wal-Mart (WMT) shares cease to be listed on the NYSE as a result bankruptcy, being taken over/private, or being delisted by the exchange.” ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-12-31.
-
“Steve Jobs will be nominated for Presdident of the United States, by one of the two major political parties in 2012.” ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2012-09-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-06.
-
“By the end of 2024 there will be a Single Global Currency managed by a Global Central Bank within a Global Monetary Union.(3-G's) This currency will be legal tender in countries which comprise at least 51% of the world's GDP.” ( 7% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2024-12-31.
-
The world will not end December 25, 2012. ( 98% confidence; 28 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Houshalter on 2010-06-13; known on 2012-12-26; judged right by Qiaochu on 2012-12-26.
-
Cannabis will be legalised within Australia by 2012 ( 23% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by d403 on 2010-02-28; known on 2012-01-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-02.
-
There will be a consensus among physicists that the Large Hadron Collider has provided experimental verification for the existence of the Higgs Boson by the end of October 2011. ( 36% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jack on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-10-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-31.