Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
-
Syria – Credible forensic evidence that a chemical weapons storage or manufacturing location existed in Khan Sheikhoun emerges before the end of 2017. ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-08; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-01-03.
-
EMDrive thrust will not be positively replicated by a reliable independent party, like Tau Zero. (Not Shawyer, White, Fetti.) ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
-
Personal – I move to remote working from Manchester by the end of 2017. ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-29; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-01-03.
-
There will be a larger DDoS attack than the October Dyn attack. ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
-
No verified quantum supremacy this year. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
-
“Data science” hype will continue to increase, as measured by Google Trends hits / world job openings. ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
-
A CRISPR clinical trial will be conducted on humans in the US. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
-
Lightning Networks AND Segwit will be fully deployed before the end of 2017 ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
-
I will read at least 30 substantive books during 2017 (not reread, excluding light fiction) ( 50% confidence )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
-
I will read at least 20 substantive books during 2017 (not reread, excluding light fiction) ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
-
There will be a major bug found and exploited in Lightning Networks / Segwit during 2017 (Conditional on deployment before June) ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
-
EMDrive is launched into space and testing is successfully begun in 2017 ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
-
A significant number of skeptics will not become convinced EMDrive works in 2017 ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
-
A significant number of believers will not become convinced EMDrive doesn’t work during 2017 if it is not launched by November. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
-
No agreement reached on “two-speed EU” in 2017 ( 90% confidence )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
-
Oil will end 2017 lower than $60 a barrel (Brent Crude) ( 50% confidence )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
-
Shanghai index will not fall > 10% in 2017 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
-
Trump administration does not initiate extra prosecution of Hillary Clinton (in 2017) ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
-
No race riot in the US killing > 5 people in 2017 ( 66% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
-
Repeal of Obamacare, including at least the individual mandate OR minimum coverage rules signed in to law before end of 2017 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
-
Jonathan will meditate for X minutes every day until Monday, January 1st. ( 89% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Lemmih on 2017-12-25; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Lemmih on 2018-01-02.
-
Al Franken will not be a US Senator on 3/31/18. ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2018-04-01; judged right by ccokeefe on 2018-01-02.
-
Hillary Clinton to be convicted for an offense directly related to her email controversy. ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Dapple on 2016-10-14; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Dapple on 2018-01-02.
-
Kyle Chapman (based stick man) will face prosecution for assault charges in 2017 ( 20% confidence )
Created by Dapple on 2017-03-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Dapple on 2018-01-02.
-
Kyle Chapman (based stick man) will be convicted on assault charges in 2017 ( 11% confidence )
Created by Dapple on 2017-03-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Dapple on 2018-01-02.
-
There will be a week during which it is more common to buy food with gold than any other form of money (e.g., USD) in some US settlement with at least 1000 people in 2017. ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by aseyfarth on 2017-01-31; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by aseyfarth on 2018-01-02.
-
I will have a major haircut in 2017 ( 10% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2018-01-02.
-
I will be hospitalised in 2017 (not counting A&E) ( 5% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2018-01-02.
-
I will be asking people to use gender-neutral pronouns for me by the end of 2017 ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2018-01-02.
-
I will go on dates with >5 people in 2017 ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2018-01-02.
-
I will complete my current music project in 2017 ( 46% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2018-01-02.
-
I will read every new xkcd in 2017 ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2018-01-02.
-
I will read every new SSC in 2017 ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2018-01-02.
-
I will consider myself vegan at any point in 2017 ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2018-01-02.
-
The 750 GeV diphoton excess reported by the LHC in December 2015 will be definitively attributed to new fundamental physics by the end of 2017 by either the CMS or ATLAS collaborations according to the 5-sigma “observation” criteria. ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jessriedel on 2016-01-06; known on 2018-01-02; judged wrong by jessriedel on 2018-01-02.
-
Facebook market cap will not drop below $200 billion at any time in 2017. ( 74% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-02-20; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-02.
-
Quantcast will continue to show visits and pageviews data for Stack Overflow till the end of 2017. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-02-20; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-02.
-
Wikipedia Views (wikipediaviews.org) will survive in a form very similar to its present form as of January 1, 2018. ( 97% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-02-20; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-02.
-
I will post more on Facebook in 2017 than I did in 2016 (as judged by myself). ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-11; known on 2018-01-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-02.
-
[The video with the most views on YouTube, as of January 1, 2018, will be] A video released before June 1, 2017, that is not in the above list ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-01; known on 2018-01-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-02.
-
[The video with the most views on YouTube, as of January 1, 2018, will be] A video released on or after June 1, 2017 ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-01; known on 2018-01-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-02.
-
[The video with the most views on YouTube, as of January 1, 2018, will be] Shape Of You ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-01; known on 2018-01-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-02.
-
[The video with the most views on YouTube, as of January 1, 2018, will be] See You Again ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-01; known on 2018-01-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-02.
-
I will finish 6 or more books this year ( 70% confidence )
Created by Jach on 2017-01-03; known on 2018-01-03; judged right by Jach on 2018-01-02.
-
Godot 3.0 will have a stable release by the end of the year ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jach on 2017-11-17; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Jach on 2018-01-02.
-
>2,000 American troops deployed in Syria in 2017 ( 24% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-09; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-02.
-
McDonalds Germany will have served vegan burgers in their restaurants by the end of 2017. ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by maxra on 2017-05-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by maxra on 2018-01-02.
-
This BOE reference interest rate will be 0.5% or below at the end of 2017 ( 40% confidence )
Created by penten on 2016-10-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by penten on 2018-01-02.
-
Read 45 or more books in 2017 ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by penten on 2016-12-22; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by penten on 2018-01-02.
-
I will have given up coffee by 1st Jan 2018 ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-12-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by penten on 2018-01-02.