Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
Displaying all predictions made by vollmer. Filter by:
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Animal Charity Evaluators will publish their analysis on Joey and Xio's leafleting study by the end of March. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2014-03-10; known on 2014-04-01; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2014-03-20.
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Eliezer will publish at least one HPMOR chapter this month. ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ygert on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-04-01; judged wrong by on 2014-04-01.
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Crimea or similar territory to be recognized by at least one country as not part of Ukraine by 2016-01-01. ( 44% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by simplicio on 2014-02-28; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Silver on 2014-03-27.