Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 54% | 62% | 73% | 89% | 95% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 120 | 112 | 66 | 62 | 43 | 2 | 405 |
Displaying all predictions made by rlourie. Filter by:
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Human extinction caused by AI before my 50th birthday. ( 19% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-02-28; known on 2043-10-10.
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I get in to med school ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by squackledee on 2023-02-16; known 16 days ago.
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By January 1, 2031, large-language models combined with automated proof checking systems like Lean and Coq will have contributed to proofs which have appeared in major math journals. ( 53% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-21; known on 2031-01-01.
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Sometime within calendar year 2022, Ooga leaves Ashley's embrace for long enough to log onto predictionbook and judge their only prediction. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-07; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by rlourie on 2023-01-09.
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Naruto will not kill Haku ( 87% confidence )
Created by rlourie on 2022-04-02; known on 2022-04-02.
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My spring 2022 final grades will not include any letter grade below an A-. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by rlourie on 2022-01-29; known on 2022-06-01.
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(The Hurt Locker) The young guy will die. ( 60% confidence )
Created by rlourie on 2022-03-06; known on 2022-03-06; judged wrong by rlourie on 2022-03-06.
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I do not think Belinda will secure funding from Tanya ( 65% confidence )
Created by rlourie on 2022-01-24; known on 2022-01-24; judged wrong by God on 2022-05-01.