Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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In the EA survey, at least 50% of non-student respondents will self-report that they donated at least 10% of their income in 2013. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-10-24; known on 2015-01-24; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2015-06-15.
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I will stick to Firefox as my default browser over Chrome. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-04; known on 2015-05-31; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-14.
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I will get someone's number through meeting them in a bookshop before I leave London ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-19; known on 2015-06-10; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-06-14.
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Charles Kennedy cause of death will seem to have been confirmed as suicide in 2015 (in my judgement if ambiguous or disputed) ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-06-02; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-06-14.
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I won't be able to finish the whole plate of brunch Sam is cooking for me ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Xtobel on 2015-06-13; known on 2015-06-13; judged wrong by Xtobel on 2015-06-13.
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I will go to Asheville with friends in December. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2014-11-25; known on 2014-12-20; judged right by memoriesofbutter on 2015-06-13.
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Get a 1 in Part II Astro ( 50% confidence )
Created by ejlflop on 2015-05-26; known on 2015-06-15; judged wrong by ejlflop on 2015-06-12.
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Get at least a 2:1 in Part II Astro. ( 90% confidence )
Created by ejlflop on 2015-05-26; known on 2015-06-15; judged right by ejlflop on 2015-06-12.
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My dad will smile when he sees me after coming back home for the summer ( 96% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-06-05; known on 2015-06-10; judged right by RoryS on 2015-06-12.
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At least one company in the 2014 YEI fellowship will raise $1 million within the next year. ( 60% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-12; known on 2015-06-12; judged right by aarongertler on 2015-06-12.
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SR: DPR will not be found guilty on charges of money laundering (or conspiracy to commit money laundering). ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by tedks on 2013-10-03; known on 2015-10-03; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-06-11.
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SR: Ross Ulbricht will not be found guilty on charges of narcotics trafficking (or conspiracy). ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by tedks on 2013-10-03; known on 2015-10-03; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-06-11.
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Apple will release their desktop OS as software only before 2015 ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by raavin on 2010-11-18; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by btrettel on 2015-06-11.
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Deployments in the next 16 days will reduce the amount of Bellroy WIP (stories started and not yet accepted) down to 12 stories or less. ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mike on 2015-05-19; known on 2015-06-05; judged wrong by Mike on 2015-06-11.
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I will end up sleeping at A, B, and C's house before leaving London ( 10% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-06-10; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-06-09.
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A will make a move on me before I leave London this year ( 15% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-06-10; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-06-09.
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I will have sex in Sasha's room ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-14; known on 2015-06-15; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-06-09.
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I will end up at D's house before I leave London ( 40% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-06-10; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-06-09.
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By the August 1st /r/TheButton button will expire ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by VoidChronos on 2015-04-09; known on 2015-08-01; judged right by timujin on 2015-06-08.
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Our game will be playable when it is supposed to be ready ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by timujin on 2015-04-14; known on 2015-06-16; judged right by timujin on 2015-06-08.
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Created by timujin on 2015-05-27; known on 2015-06-07; judged right by timujin on 2015-06-08.
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I will have completed the first draft of my novel by June 7, 2015, my 58th birthday. ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by TheEconomistofVengeance on 2015-03-02; known on 2015-06-07; judged wrong by TheEconomistofVengeance on 2015-06-08.
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On 1st June the PM is a member of the Labour party ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-02-17; known on 2015-06-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-06-08.
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A party not in the government is whipped to back or abstain on the first Queens Speech of next parliament ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-03-13; known on 2015-06-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-06-08.
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[Pact web serial] Blake will not retake his position as Thorburn heir ( 70% confidence )
Created by sigmaleph on 2014-07-31; known on 2015-07-02; judged right by David on 2015-06-07.
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Barcelona will win the 2015 Champions League ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Andrew MacFie on 2015-04-24; known on 2015-06-06; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2015-06-06.
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Juventus will win the 2015 Champions League ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Andrew MacFie on 2015-04-24; known on 2015-06-06; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2015-06-06.
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I will get employed throughout May. ( 50% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-05-31; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-06-05.
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Slatestarcodex will publish a reply to Ozy's piece within the next two weeks. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-20; known on 2015-06-04; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-06-04.
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That my wife will give birth to a baby girl ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by woodse on 2015-01-16; known on 2015-05-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-04.
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That Jayson will be employed in Az for his next job. ( 60% confidence )
Created by woodse on 2015-01-16; known on 2015-04-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-04.
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We will win ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-06-02; known on 2015-06-02; judged right by RoryS on 2015-06-02.
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KC by end of May ( 51% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-06-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-06-01.
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FC by end of May ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-06-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-06-01.
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SlateStarCodex blog response to https://srconstantin.wordpress.com/2015/05/04/values-affirmation-is-powerful/ on date in May 2015 according to date I see on the post if/when it exists ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-05; known on 2015-06-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-06-01.
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I will participate in the Sydney Morning Herald Half Marathon on May 17 2015, completing the race before the cut-off time. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by TheEconomistofVengeance on 2014-05-29; known on 2015-05-17; judged right by waveman on 2015-06-01.
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I will participate in the Sydney Morning Herald Half Marathon on May 17 2015, running a time of less than 2 hours. ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by TheEconomistofVengeance on 2014-05-29; known on 2015-05-17; judged wrong by waveman on 2015-06-01.
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bedycasa sera en cessation de paiement ( 60% confidence )
Created by ericlefevre on 2014-08-18; known on 2015-06-01; judged wrong by ericlefevre on 2015-06-01.
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My friend Mr Agent will write more than 10 posts in the next 25 days, given that he committed to writing one every day. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Pradeep_Kumar on 2015-05-06; known on 2015-05-31; judged wrong by Pradeep_Kumar on 2015-06-01.
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My friend Mr Agent will write more than 10 posts in the next 25 days, given that he committed to writing one every day. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Pradeep_Kumar on 2015-05-06; known on 2015-05-31; judged wrong by Pradeep_Kumar on 2015-06-01.
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The Patriot Act will lapse at midnight tonight. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by orthonormal on 2015-06-01; known on 2015-06-01; judged right by orthonormal on 2015-06-01.
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If M is any irreducible stationary Markov chain on the set of computable permutations of the natural numbers, then M is transient. ( 89% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by orthonormal on 2015-05-30; known on 2015-06-01; judged right by orthonormal on 2015-06-01.
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Some set of scales plausibly says my mass is <=70kg at any time by 05:00 on Monday 1st June 2015 ( 55% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-17; known on 2015-06-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-31.
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I will pass both an oral examination in comprehension of the german language, and the standard advanced mathematics written exam (college level). The direct consequences of failing either of these exams is a sum of approximately 1,250 USD ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by FourFire on 2015-03-07; known on 2015-05-31; judged wrong by FourFire on 2015-05-31.
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I will know that Tim Shieff competed in the first series of Ninja Warrior UK by the time I finish watching it ( 38% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-03; known on 2015-05-30; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-31.
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Tim Shieff completes his heat course in Ninja Warrior UK series 1 conditional on him competing ( 84% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-03; known on 2015-05-30; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-31.
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Tim Shieff clears the heats of Ninja Warrior UK series 1 (i.e. makes semi-finals direct, by highest-scoring loser, etc.), conditional on him competing ( 82% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-03; known on 2015-05-30; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-31.
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Arsenal will win the F.A Cup ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-30; known on 2015-05-30; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-30.
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“Over the next ten years, we will make measurable global progress in all five areas of the human condition: food, access to clean water, health, education, and the price of energy.” ( 66% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2015-06-30; judged right by gwern on 2015-05-28.
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I will be able to memorize a shuffled deck of cards (Doppelkopf deck, 48 cards) in less then 5min by the end of May. ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Chri on 2015-04-07; known on 2015-06-01; judged right by Chri on 2015-05-28.