Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 6 ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2019-11-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-21.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 5 ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2019-11-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-21.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 4 ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2019-11-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-21.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 3 or fewer ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2019-11-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-21.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 7 ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2019-11-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-21.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 8 ( 30% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2019-11-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-21.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 9 ( 30% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2019-11-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-21.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 10 ( 24% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2019-11-30; judged right by Cato on 2019-11-21.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 11 ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2019-11-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-21.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 12 ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2019-11-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-21.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 13 or more ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2019-11-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-21.
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[US politics] Andrew Yang to participate in the fifth Democratic primary debate (November 2019) ( 57% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-26; known on 2019-11-21; judged right by Cato on 2019-11-21.
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I will own some cryptocurrency before 2027 (know the private key) ( 36% confidence )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-20; known on 2027-01-01; judged right by wolfish_wrath on 2019-11-19.
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I will learn about predictions ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tanya_21@hotmail.com on 2019-11-18; known on 2019-11-17; judged right by Tanya_21@hotmail.com on 2019-11-18.
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Antonio Costa's government won't survive its entire term ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoaoEira on 2015-12-19; known on 2019-11-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-11-16.
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The Guardian newspaper's obsession with sex robots will continue for the next two years at least. ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-03; known on 2019-10-03; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2019-11-15.
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[Fortune Global 500 as of 2019 (i.e., on 2018 revenues)] to include more Chinese companies than American ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-15.
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[Fortune Global 500 as of 2019 (i.e., on 2018 revenues)] to list Walmart as the largest company in the world ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-11-15.
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[Fortune Global 500 as of 2019 (i.e., on 2018 revenues)] to list at least 5 Chinese companies in the top 10 ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-15.
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[Fortune Global 500 as of 2019 (i.e., on 2018 revenues)] to include any company not from Europe, the United States, Japan, or China in the top 10 ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-11-15.
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[Fortune Global 500 as of 2019 (i.e., on 2018 revenues)] to include any company not from Europe, the United States, Japan, or China in the top 10 ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-11-15.
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[Fortune Global 500 as of 2019 (i.e., on 2018 revenues)] to list at least 5 American companies in the top 10 ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-15.
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[Fortune Global 500 as of 2019 (i.e., on 2018 revenues)] to include at least 40 “newcomers” ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-15.
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[Fortune Global 500 as of 2019 (i.e., on 2018 revenues)] to include at least 1 “newcomer” in the top 100 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-11-15.
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[Baseball] The New York Mets will win the World Series in 2019 ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RedScharlach on 2019-02-15; known on 2019-10-30; judged wrong by rei5025 on 2019-11-11.
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Gmail will still exist in five years, in contrast to Mike Elgan's prediction. http://www.computerworld.com/article/2838775/why-google-wants-to-replace-gmail.html ( 91% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2014-10-31; known on 2019-10-31; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-11-09.
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There will be a shooting at a showing of Joker. ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JohnGreer on 2019-10-04; known on 2019-11-04; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-11-09.
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James Cameron is accused of sexual harassment/assault by at least one woman. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-11-01; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2019-11-08.
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Michael Bay is accused of sexual harassment/assault by at least one woman ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-11-06; known on 2019-11-06; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2019-11-08.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99 ( 6% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-11-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] under $40 ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-11-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] higher than $100 ( 3% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-11-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99 ( 5% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-11-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99 ( 12% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-11-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99 ( 25% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-11-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99 ( 26% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-11-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 ( 17% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-11-07; judged right by Cato on 2019-11-07.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] “no-deal Brexit” to have happened ( 18% confidence; 20 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-11-05.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Aug-Sep-Oct 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions ( 48% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-11-14; judged right by Cato on 2019-11-05.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Aug-Sep-Oct 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions ( 41% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-11-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-05.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Aug-Sep-Oct 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions ( 7% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-11-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-05.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of October 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] September 2019 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-11-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-05.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of October 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] October 2018 ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-11-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-11-05.
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[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for September 2019 to exceed 50% ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-11-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-04.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] the UK to not be a member of the European Union ( 27% confidence; 14 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-04.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] “no-deal Brexit” to have happened ( 18% confidence; 20 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-11-05.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] “Brexit with a deal” to have happened ( 7% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-04.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Article 50 to have been extended ( 58% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-11-04.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] a second Brexit referendum to have been held ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-04.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] a second Brexit referendum to be formally announced ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-04.