Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 55% | 47% | 79% | 61% | 84% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 11 | 17 | 14 | 18 | 25 | 1 | 86 |
Displaying all predictions made by Mati. Filter by:
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Larry King will get cryopreserved in the next 50 years ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mati on 2021-01-03; known on 2071-01-01.
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A hole will be drilled down to Earth's mantle by 2090. ( 39% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-29; known on 2090-01-01.
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Fully artificial kidney will be publicly available by 2042. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-29; known on 2042-01-01.
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A male birth control pill will be commercially available in the US or EU by 2045. ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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Level 5 self-driving air vehicles will be available by 2030. ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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Level 5 autonomous cars will be commercially available by 2042. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-29; known on 2042-01-01.
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Level 4 autonomous cars will be commercially available by 2036. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-29; known on 2036-01-01.
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Level 3 autonomous cars will be commercially available by 2030. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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Bitcoins thought to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto will be spent by 2075-04-05 (hacks don't count). ( 19% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-24; known on 2075-04-05.
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Space mining will be profitable before 2090, conditional on no existential catastrophe or win ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2090-01-01.
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A nuclear fusion reactor will hit an economic breakeven before January 1st 2057, conditional on no existential catastrophes or wins. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2057-01-01.
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A fusion reactor will reach ignition before January 1st 2051, conditional on no existential catastrophes or wins. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2051-01-01.
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The fusion energy gain factor of a fusion reactor will reach a Q >= 1 before January 1st 2044, conditional on no existential catastrophes or wins. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2044-01-01.
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The U.S. plant-based and cultured-based retail market will be worth more than 9bn 2020USD throughout 2029. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2030-01-01.
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A company with its main activity being cultured meat and/or dairy products will be valued at >= 1bn 2020USD by January 1st, 2030. ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2030-01-01.
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Meat and/or dairy products from cellular agriculture will be commercially available by January 1st, 2030. ( 90% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2030-01-01.
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The TV show “The Walking Dead” will have at least 10 completed seasons before 2025. ( 45% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Mati on 2015-03-28; known on 2025-01-01.
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“By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.” ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-25; known on 2033-03-25.
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Dolfi can wash clothes correctly. ( 85% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Mati on 2015-03-12; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by Mati on 2020-01-03.
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The answer I just wrote on Quora will get more than 100 upvotes by the end of the month. ( 4% confidence )
Created by Mati on 2015-03-08; known on 2015-04-01; judged wrong by Mati on 2015-04-01.
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The first full body transplantation of a human will have been successfully done before 2045. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Mati on 2015-02-26; known on 2045-01-01.
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I will start a website (or blog) on cryonics before September 2015. ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2015-02-24; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by Mati on 2015-10-24.
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At least one of my sibling will make at least 20 predictions on this website before February 2016. ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2015-02-01; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by Mati on 2016-04-25.
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“People Will Spend the Majority of Waking Time in Virtual Reality by 2020” – Zack Kanter (http://goo.gl/ZlE6LS), taken to mean that the majority of Americans' waking hours will be spent in virtual reality in the year 2020 (not including augmented reality) ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by benwr on 2015-01-29; known on 2021-01-02; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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HPMoR: Harry Potter has asked the Weasleys for a computer. ( 15% confidence )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-14; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Mati on 2016-12-11.
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HPMoR: Voldemort will kill Harry Potter and still do 'evil things' at the end of the story. ( 6% confidence )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-11; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.
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The solar cell efficiency record will be at 60% by January 1st, 2035. ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-12-06; known on 2035-01-01.
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Mercury will not exist anymore by January 1st 2214. ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-12-06; known on 2214-01-01.
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There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020. ( 63% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-12-03; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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This wager will have an average estimate of 25-75% on Jan 10th, 2015. ( 69% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by from3004 on 2014-11-26; known on 2015-01-10; judged right by adri on 2015-01-10.
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HPMOR: By the end of the story, it will turn out that the troll actually killed Hermione. ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Mathias Zaman on 2014-11-19; known on 2015-04-15; judged right by Mathias Zaman on 2015-03-11.
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We will have permanent off-Earth colonies by 2020 ( 10% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-04; known on 2020-01-16; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-17.
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I will make at least 5 new Facebook friends before Monday. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Mati on 2014-09-02; known on 2014-09-08; judged wrong by Mati on 2014-09-08.
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SimplementCaro will not annoy me in the next hour. ( 94% confidence )
Created by Mati on 2014-08-19; known on 2014-08-20; judged right by Mati on 2014-08-19.
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I will be a finalist for the MA365 mission. ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2014-03-09; known on 2014-10-16; judged wrong by Mati on 2014-09-26.
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Barack Obama will do the Ice Bucket Challenge this year. ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-08-15; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Mati on 2014-08-27.
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iPen and iPaper from Apple in 5 years ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-13; known on 2019-08-13; judged right by Antbak on 2019-07-06.
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Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black. ( 13% confidence; 24 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-17; known on 2024-06-16.
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LinkedIn will be the most popular social network (by montly unique visitors) at the end of 2034. ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mati on 2014-04-28; known on 2035-01-01.
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Google+ will be the most popular social network (by montly unique visitors) at the end of 2034. ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2014-04-28; known on 2035-01-01.
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Facebook will be the most popular social network (by montly unique visitors) at the end of 2034. ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2014-04-28; known on 2035-01-01.
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The CAQ will be the official opposition after the 2014 Quebec elections. ( 30% confidence )
Created by Mati on 2014-04-07; known on 2014-04-08; judged wrong by Mati on 2014-04-09.
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Presence of life in the past (or present) that doesn't originate from Earth will be discovered in the solar system before 2050. ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-04-04; known on 2050-01-01.
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An (other) astronomical object with a diameter bigger than Mercury will be discover in the Solar System before 2050. ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-04-01; known on 2050-01-01.
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My funding campaign for a website in Irish will do horribly. ( 95% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-03-31; known on 2014-05-30; judged right by lettergram on 2014-06-27.
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The PLQ will win the April 2014 Quebec elections. ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-03-28; known on 2014-04-08; judged right by Mati on 2014-04-09.
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Mariloup Wolfe will lose her legal proceedings against Gab Roy. ( 66% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Mati on 2014-03-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Mati on 2016-05-01.
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This prediction is currently judged 'Unknown' or 'Wrong'. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-03-15; known on 9999-01-01.
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An alive human from the Mars One organisation will have been on Mars before January 1st 2024. ( 6% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-03-09; known on 2024-01-01.
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Leena will agree with me (before March 7th, 2014) that we should start mining the moon. ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-28; known on 2014-03-07; judged wrong by Mati on 2014-03-07.
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I will have finished the Lesswrong main sequences by June 11th 2014. ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-25; known on 2014-06-11; judged wrong by Mati on 2014-06-20.
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In 2019, in the USA, it will be possible to have more than 99% of our genome sequenced for less than the median salary per household per day (averaged from the year 2019) divided by the average number of people per household. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Most roads in the USA will not use speed limit units of miles per hour on January 1st 2040. ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-24; known on 2040-01-01.
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I will not know the score of the hockey's final before I watch it. ( 25% confidence )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-24; known on 2014-03-16; judged right by Mati on 2014-03-14.
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At least one of my grandparents will get cryonically frozen before 2070. ( 15% confidence )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-14; known on 2070-01-01.
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I will be a member of a cryonics organisation before 2022. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-14; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by Mati on 2022-01-01.
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I will start a PhD before 2020. ( 10% confidence )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Mati on 2020-01-03.
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I will go to sleep before 5:00am. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-14; known on 2014-02-15; judged wrong by Mati on 2014-02-14.
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I will ask the girl I am seeing on friday to be my girlfriend by the end of the weekend. ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by reubensandwich on 2014-02-13; known on 2014-02-17; judged right by reubensandwich on 2014-02-16.
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I will go see my grandparents this weekend. ( 99% confidence )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-12; known on 2014-02-17; judged right by Mati on 2014-02-17.
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HPMoR: Voldemort will ally with Harry Potter (ex.: to fight death). ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.
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Google will have had the biggest market capitalization in the USA at some point before February 2019. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-11; known on 2019-02-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-03-17.
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HPMoR: Voldemort was good from the beginning. ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.
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Created by Mati on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.
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HPMoR: Harry will find the room of requirement. ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Thelvyn on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-02; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.
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HPMoR: Harry will finc the chamber of secrets. ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Thelvyn on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-02; judged wrong by timujin on 2015-04-15.
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HPMoR: Harry will try to take possession of the other deathly hallows ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Thelvyn on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-02; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.
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HPMoR (up to ch. 98): Harry Potter will respect his contract/promise from ch.47 with Draco. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by solipsist on 2015-03-14.
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HPMoR (up to ch. 98): Harry Potter has asked the Weasleys for some drugs. ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by player_03 on 2016-03-09.
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HPMoR (up to ch. 98): At some point, Harry Potter will use magic to directly modify his brain (ex. Memory Charm, False memory charm, etc.). ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.
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HPMoR (up to ch. 98): Voldemort will die (permanently). ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Unknowns on 2015-03-15.
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HPMoR (up to 98): Harry Potter will never use the killing curse (aka the Avada Kedavra Curse). ( 95% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Unknowns on 2015-03-15.
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HPMoR (up to 98): At some point in the story, cryonics will be mentioned. ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by nigr on 2016-03-07.
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HPMoR (up to 98): Hermione's body was stolen from a future version of Harry Potter. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.
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I will be alive on my 33rd birthday. ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by ZLM on 2014-02-11; known on 2022-01-30; judged wrong by God on 2022-04-27.
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Someone will comment on this prediction and recommend me a podcast or audiobook that I don't know of, and I will listen to at least 2 episodes or chapters before 2 weeks. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-10; known on 2014-02-25; judged wrong by Mati on 2014-02-25.
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Canada will arrive first in the 2014 Olympics. (ie. number of gold medals) ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-09; known on 2014-02-24; judged wrong by Mati on 2014-02-24.
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Someone without foot and with artificial legs will do under 10 seconds at the 100 meters sprint before 2041. ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-09; known on 2042-01-01.
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Canada will win the 2014 paralympics. ( 14% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-09; known on 2014-03-17; judged wrong by Mati on 2014-03-17.
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I am going to live for at least another 80 years ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Amélie_Roy on 2014-02-07; known on 2094-12-31.
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I will have a girlfriend at some point in the next 365 days. ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-06; known on 2015-02-06; judged wrong by Mati on 2015-02-06.
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I will go see my grandparents this weekend. ( 88% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-06; known on 2014-02-12; judged wrong by Mati on 2014-02-08.
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There will have been modular smart phones on the market before 2020. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Mati on 2020-01-03.
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I will have visited the Cronics Institute in 2014. ( 34% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-06; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Mati on 2015-01-05.
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I will have been in Vancouver in 2014. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-06; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Mati on 2015-01-05.
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There will have been more than 1500 CI Members at some point before 2019. ( 68% confidence )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Mati on 2019-01-01.
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In the United States of America, driverless cars will have been sold to the public and it will have been legal at some point to use them on highways before 2050. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-06; known on 2050-01-01.
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There will be (physical) Google stores before 2020. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Mati on 2020-01-03.
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Google will sell smart watches before 2016 ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-06; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-05.
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Apple will sell smart glasses before 2020. ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Before 2030, more than 35% of US-Americans will have no religious identity (not counting babies). ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-06; known on 2030-01-01.
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At least one of my sibling will make at least 20 predictions on this website before February 2015. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-05; known on 2015-02-01; judged wrong by Mati on 2015-02-01.
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The government of Quebec will start using an open source operating system (instead of Windows) during the mandate of the next government. ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-05; known on 2020-09-02; judged wrong by Mati on 2020-09-03.
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There will be elections in the province of Quebec this year. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-05; known on 2015-01-02; judged right by Mati on 2014-03-10.
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Google Helpouts is shut down within the next 5 years. ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-02-01; known on 2019-02-02; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-02-13.
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There are unique 50 wagers on this prediction by April 1st, 2014. ( 69% confidence; 62 wagers; 71 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-04-02; judged right by rickyrich98 on 2014-04-02.
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Scotland votes 'yes' for independence. ( 38% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-31; known on 2014-09-19; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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A portfolio with one third of each TWTR, CAS, and GE will do worst than the Dow Jones (not counting dividends) between February 1st 2014 and January 1st 2015 (excluded). ( 60% confidence )
Created by Mati on 2014-01-31; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Mati on 2015-01-05.
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A portfolio with 10% of each GOOG, AMZN, TSLA, MSFT, EBAY, ORB, MMM, NVDA, DDD, and FMI will do better than the Dow Jones (not counting dividends) between February 1st 2014 and January 1st 2015 (excluded). ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mati on 2014-01-31; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Mati on 2015-01-05.
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UAV's/drones will be commercially viable before self driving cars ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JosefK on 2014-01-30; known on 2050-01-01.