Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
-
My cable technician will not have all the necessary equipment for installation. ( 35% confidence )
Created by spqr0a1 on 2012-03-31; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by spqr0a1 on 2012-04-01.
-
GJP: #1059 Will Kim Jong-un attend an official, in-person meeting with any G8 head of government* before 1 April 2012? ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-04-01.
-
the Occupy Wall Street protest will begin suffering from communicable diseases and this cause the authorities to crack down and remove them all. ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-04-01.
-
GJP: #1055 Will North Korea successfully detonate a nuclear weapon, either atmospherically, underground, or underwater, between 9 January 2012 and 1 April 2012? ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-04-01.
-
I will have a profitable bot before April 1st, 2012. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Lemmih on 2011-12-22; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Lemmih on 2012-04-01.
-
First chapter of a fic stemming from my satire of John Galt's prediction is published by April 1. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-04-01.
-
I will have reduced excess fat to the point that I will have visible abs. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-03-31; judged wrong by waveman on 2012-03-31.
-
I will have achieved intermediate level weightlifting levels for all lifts as defined in my spreadsheet. ( 75% confidence )
Created by waveman on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-03-31; judged wrong by waveman on 2012-03-31.
-
I will have workable futures trading strategy in place. This is a replacement for another prediction where I put the wrong date in. ( 15% confidence )
Created by waveman on 2012-02-28; known on 2012-03-31; judged wrong by waveman on 2012-03-31.
-
“USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before midnight ET 31 Mar 2012” —Intrade ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-03-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-31.
-
Nivedit won't sign up for any Stanford courses in January or February, or, if he does, will drop all of them within 5 weeks. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-25; known on 2012-03-31; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-03-31.
-
Reddit: “teaching daughter to ride bike” pic is reposted as “autistic daughter”. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-30; known on 2012-04-30; judged right by muflax on 2012-03-31.
-
At least 15 people will attend the next Student Economics Association roundtable. ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Danny_Hintze on 2012-03-26; known on 2012-03-30; judged wrong by Danny_Hintze on 2012-03-30.
-
I will tinker with PredictionBook's source code before April 1 and manage to add a new feature. ( 6% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-13; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-03-30.
-
I will complete my Network+ Anki deck in less than 48 hours from now. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-29; known on 2012-03-31; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-30.
-
My wife and I will complete the 2nd version of the business plan within the next 36 hours. ( 79% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-29; known on 2012-03-31; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-30.
-
Lady Gaga will launch her next tour in Omaha, NE. ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Øx on 2011-08-29; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by saturn on 2012-03-29.
-
I will get an A in my OOPD class. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Lemmih on 2011-12-22; known on 2012-02-20; judged right by Lemmih on 2012-03-28.
-
tonight's dinner will be end before 9pm ( 40% confidence )
Created by happyday on 2012-03-28; known on 2012-03-28; judged right by happyday on 2012-03-28.
-
HP MoR: Priori Incantatum ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by gryffinp on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-29; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-03-28.
-
my husband will cook dinner for me when i come home ( 70% confidence )
Created by happyday on 2012-03-27; known on 2012-03-27; judged wrong by happyday on 2012-03-28.
-
HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be nothing (failure) ( 6% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
-
HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be invoke the Imperius-debts of other Wizengamot members ( 18% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
-
HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be invoking Lucius's debt to whomever killed his supposed Imperiuser ( 35% confidence; 21 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged right by Grognor on 2012-03-28.
-
HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be reveal the truth about Bellatrix's escape ( 1% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
-
HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be offer the Wizengamot Voldemort's true identity (Quirrel) ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
-
HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be nothing (failure) ( 6% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
-
HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be accept Hermione's imprisonment but order the Dementors to leave her alone ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
-
HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will involve destroying one of the Dementors ( 9% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
-
HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be ask for a trial by combat ( 2% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
-
HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be make Dumbledore turn himself in to Lucius in exchange for Hermione's freedom ( 31% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-03-28.
-
HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be have Quirrel make Bella confess to the crime ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
-
HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be using the Time-turner in some way ( 23% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
-
HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be threaten to destroy Azkaban ( 5% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged right by Grognor on 2012-03-28.
-
HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be offer the Wizengamot Voldemort's true identity (Quirrel) ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
-
HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be using the Time-turner to smuggle Hermione out under the Cloak ( 4% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
-
HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be using the Time-turner to affect Lucius in some way ( 10% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
-
HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be using the Time-turner to alter Hermione's testimony to something easily falsifiable ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
-
HPMoR : ch 81 : Harry will marry Hermione and thereby make this a matter between noble houses, and then turn that into a trial by lightsaber of hermy and draco ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by rohit507 on 2012-03-26; known on 2012-03-27; judged wrong by saturn on 2012-03-28.
-
HP MOR Ch81 Harry's solution is to use the time turner to go back in time and frame Lord Jugson for doing it by tampering with His/Hermoines/Dracos wands and false memory charming a student. ( 21% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Pringlescan4 on 2012-03-27; known on 2012-03-27; judged wrong by saturn on 2012-03-28.
-
HP MoR: ch 81: Harry's solution will be to set his hair on fire and run around in circles, screaming. ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
-
HP MoR: Harry will confess to having arranged the attempted murder of Malfoy. ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by beo_shaffer on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
-
HP MoR: Nobody in the LW discussion thread will predict Harry's actual attempted solution (regardless of whether it fails). ( 25% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
-
I will be able to meet with my friend on tuesday afternoon 3pm, because design studio will run short. ( 60% confidence )
Created by williamycai on 2012-03-24; known on 2012-03-27; judged right by williamycai on 2012-03-27.
-
I will be able to meet with my friend on tuesday afternoon 3pm, because design studio will run short. ( 60% confidence )
Created by williamycai on 2012-03-24; known on 2012-03-27; judged right by williamycai on 2012-03-27.
-
Ubs will sell off its investment arm ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Laurablack on 2011-09-26; known on 2012-03-26; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-26.
-
Phil Goetz will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2012-03-25.
-
Keido will quote Dante's Inferno at least one more time before Guilty Crown ends ( 95% confidence )
Created by meisnewbie on 2012-01-23; known on 2012-04-16; judged wrong by meisnewbie on 2012-03-25.
-
The forum mafia Bayes calculator will be completed within a month. ( 70% confidence )
Created by meisnewbie on 2012-02-20; known on 2012-03-20; judged wrong by meisnewbie on 2012-03-25.
-
Sets, Logic, and Maths for Computing will arrive on or before 04/10/2012. ( 66% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-08; known on 2012-04-11; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-24.