Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 70% | 67% | 40% | 67% | 89% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 10 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 18 | 2 | 56 |
Displaying all predictions made by moridinamael. Filter by:
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Milo Yiannopoulos becomes a woman( post-op ) ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-16; known on 2024-12-31.
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Hillary Clinton will win the democratic nomination ( 88% confidence; 30 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sole21000 on 2016-03-09; known on 2016-07-26; judged right by grogo on 2016-07-26.
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Donald Trump will win the Republican nomination ( 77% confidence; 18 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sole21000 on 2016-03-09; known on 2016-07-22; judged right by elephantower on 2016-07-20.
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Alphago will win over Lee Sedol at least 4-1 ( 81% confidence; 17 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by sole21000 on 2016-03-09; known on 2016-03-14; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-15.
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Romney is GOP nominee. ( 2% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-08; known on 2016-11-16; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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Snokes is not Darth Plegueia ( 95% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by artir on 2016-03-08; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by moridinamael on 2018-08-13.
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Bachar el Assad will lose power before the end of 2016 ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by leo_gri on 2016-03-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-01.
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By January 2020, there will be a commercial house cleaning robots (like a Roomba) that can take voice commands to go to specific parts of the house and clean those. ( 63% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-13; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-08.
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Home repairs will run more than 10% over budget ( 44% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by moridinamael on 2015-08-17; known on 2015-11-01; judged wrong by moridinamael on 2016-03-09.
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Home repairs will run more than 20% over budget ( 24% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by moridinamael on 2015-08-17; known on 2015-11-01; judged wrong by moridinamael on 2016-03-09.
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There will be 1000 people living in space habitats before there are 1000 people living on Mars ( 77% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by moridinamael on 2015-08-17; known on 2100-01-01.
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By 2042, solar energy will cost half or less of what fossil-fuel based alternatives do. ( 53% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-15; known on 2042-01-01.
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Oil price (Brent crude) will be above $100/bbl in August ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by moridinamael on 2015-01-07; known on 2015-08-16; judged wrong by moridinamael on 2015-08-17.
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Oil price (Brent crude) will be above $60/bbl in August ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by moridinamael on 2015-01-07; known on 2015-08-16; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-08-16.
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Vladimir Putin will be president of Russia as of 1st January 2016 ( 91% confidence; 18 wagers )
Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by btrettel on 2016-01-01.
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On Dec 31, 2015, the price of regular gas at my local gas station will be > $3.10 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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Brent crude trades below $20 at some point in 2015 ( 6% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
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Scott Aaronson will not make a “tearful apology” for either Comment 171 or for any related remarks that he has made as of 9 AM December 31. ( 78% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-31; known on 2015-01-25; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-25.
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General consensus that North Korea is behind the Sony hack attack by January 1, 2016 ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-20; known on 2016-01-01.
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Brent crude above $100/barrel at the beginning of 2016. (http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/crude-oil-brent.aspx) ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2014-12-15; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-03.
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By 2045, a superconductor which has a critical temperature of at least 225 K will be discovered. ( 80% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-09; known on 2045-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2020-10-15.
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In hindsight, Uber valued at $40b will be identified as the one of key triggers of the 2014-2016 bubble. ( 30% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2014-11-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.
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Ebola has killed fewer than 1000 people in the US or Canada by November 2015 ( 95% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by LogicalOxymoron on 2014-11-22; known on 2015-11-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-11-01.
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There will be less than 5000 deaths from Ebola in the UK by March ( 99% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-03-16; judged right by kuudes on 2015-03-07.
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Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project. ( 1% confidence; 27 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-08-12; known on 2024-08-12.
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Princeton researchers: Facebook will lose 80% of its users by end of 2017 ( 15% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2014-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Mati on 2017-12-31.
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The Pope will be assassinated. ( 2% confidence; 35 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-11-28; known on 2028-11-28.
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HP MoR: Snape kills Dumbledore ( 22% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Flailingjunk on 2013-07-06; known on 2015-01-02; judged wrong by ygert on 2015-03-23.
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HP MoR: The Hat and Cloak that interacted with Hermione is Professor McGonagall. ( 4% confidence; 20 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by cafesofie on 2012-03-25; known on 2016-04-17; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023. ( 7% confidence; 23 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-02-08; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2023-01-02.
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EY posts something on “The Open Problem of Loeb-Tiling AI” within three months ( 49% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2013-02-06; known on 2013-05-06; judged right by papermachine on 2013-05-06.
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EY posts something on “The Open Problem of Intelligence Explosion Microeconomics” within three months. ( 37% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2013-02-06; known on 2013-05-06; judged right by Malo on 2013-04-29.
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Less than one hundred comments on the uncensored LW thread in a month. http://www.reddit.com/r/LessWrong/comments/17y819/lw_uncensored_thread/ ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2013-02-05; known on 2013-03-16; judged wrong by moridinamael on 2013-02-07.
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Obama will come to be ranked, on average, by presidential historians within two places of 17th best president. (ref: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/01/23/contemplating-obamas-place-in-history-statistically/) ( 38% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-01-26; known on 2113-01-01.
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Celtics will make the playoffs ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by fistpo on 2013-02-02; known on 2013-04-18; judged right by fistpo on 2013-04-18.
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Voice recognition software will be capable of replacing the average court stenographer in five years. ( 31% confidence; 10 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2013-02-02; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2018-02-01.
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Neither US nor Russian governments will make announcements claiming the existence of sentient aliens this year. http://www.eutimes.net/2013/01/russia-orders-obama-tell-world-about-aliens-or-we-will/ ( 98% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-01-27; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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Hilary Clinton will not be running for President in the 2016 Presidential Election ( 45% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-30; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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I will reach 200 followers on Twitter by the end of 2013. ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by alecbrooks on 2013-01-29; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by alecbrooks on 2014-01-01.
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John Cena will defeat The Rock at WrestleMania 29, becoming the WWE Champion. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-29; known on 2013-04-07; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-04-08.
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Technoviking will lose the lawsuit about usage of his image ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dhoe on 2013-01-27; known on 2014-02-01; judged wrong by dhoe on 2014-02-01.
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My Probability & Stats raw percentage will be strictly over 89.5% ( 69% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2013-01-27; known on 2013-04-01; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2013-02-19.
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My Analysis raw mark will be between 34 and 44 marks out of 50 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2013-01-27; known on 2013-04-01; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2013-02-19.
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My algebra lecturer will Facebook or Tweet or mention to me the psychoanalysis pun on my exam script. ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2013-01-27; known on 2013-04-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2013-02-19.
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Apple share price to stay below $700 during 2013. ( 59% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-01-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by dhoe on 2014-01-01.
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North Korea to conduct a nuclear test in 2013. ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-01-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-02-12.
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Activision or EA will announce they have obtained the Homeworld 3 IP by Feb 1 2014. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by DaFranker on 2013-01-24; known on 2014-02-01; judged wrong by DaFranker on 2014-02-01.
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Israeli Elections: The new government’s coalition will include Shas. ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ygert on 2013-01-24; known on 2013-03-20; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-03-20.
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Israeli Elections: The new government’s coalition will include HaBayit HaYehudi. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ygert on 2013-01-24; known on 2013-03-20; judged right by ygert on 2013-03-20.
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Israeli Elections: The new government’s coalition will include Labor. ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ygert on 2013-01-24; known on 2013-03-20; judged right by ygert on 2013-03-20.
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Israeli Elections: The new government's coalition will include Yesh Atid. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ygert on 2013-01-24; known on 2013-03-20; judged right by ygert on 2013-03-20.
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Israeli election: The new government's coalition will include Likud/Yisrael Beiteinu. ( 82% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ygert on 2013-01-24; known on 2013-03-20; judged right by ygert on 2013-03-20.
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Microsoft will start selling Windows 9 by the end of 2014. ( 19% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by dusk on 2013-01-24; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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Steve Ballmer will be the CEO of Microsoft at the end of 2014 ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by dusk on 2013-01-24; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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Steve Ballmer will be the CEO of Microsoft at the end of 2013 ( 81% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by dusk on 2013-01-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by dusk on 2014-01-01.
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If Star Wars VII is released in 2015, then it will have a higher RottenTomatoes score than 'The Phantom Menace' at the end of 2015. ( 70% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-11-11; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2016-01-01.
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“Google's self-driving cars will be available [for purchase at a reasonable price to buy and drive legally] for everyone [the same market that can currently afford to buy a car] within five years” – Sergey Brin ( 16% confidence; 32 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Qiaochu on 2012-10-14; known on 2017-09-26; judged wrong by Tanner on 2017-09-26.
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1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035 ( 41% confidence; 13 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by amcknight on 2011-11-11; known on 2036-01-01.
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If Ron Paul runs as a third party candidate in the 2012 presidential election, then he will receive greater than 10% of the popular vote. ( 41% confidence; 10 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by ChristianKl on 2012-11-29.
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lukeprog will receive <50 individual items of feedback through his form in the next month. ( 66% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-05; known on 2011-12-05; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-05.
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Google+ will surpass Facebook in 2013 (in number of users and level of interaction) ( 16% confidence; 27 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by sameganegie on 2011-11-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2014-01-01.
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Obama will not run for a second term. (http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=312393 ) ( 3% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-21; known on 2012-02-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-20.