Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 67% | 62% | 75% | 72% | 91% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 15 | 13 | 16 | 32 | 33 | 3 | 112 |
Displaying all predictions made by beo_shaffer. Filter by:
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Rothfuss's The Doors of Stone (bk3) will end with the recounting of Kvothe's life up to opening the inn, with no further adventures. ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-05; known on 2032-02-18.
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HP MoR: Quirrel is the original Quirrel possessed by Voldemort (a la Philosopher's Stone) ( 55% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Sirius Black ( 12% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2011-09-04; known on 2015-11-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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Within the next week there will be one or more riots attributed to the Zimmerman verdict by a mainstream news outlet. ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by beo_shaffer on 2013-07-14; known on 2013-07-21; judged right by beo_shaffer on 2013-07-21.
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Google will survive for five more years ( 97% confidence; 38 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-05-19; known on 2018-05-19; judged right by NancyLebovitz on 2018-05-19.
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Scott, of Slate Star Codex, will land his residency ( 72% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by torekp on 2013-03-01; known on 2013-06-01; judged right by simplicio on 2013-03-11.
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Yvain will mention the hand gesture the awkward turtle in http://squid314.livejournal.com/ within the next 7 days ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by beo_shaffer on 2013-01-28; known on 2013-02-04; judged wrong by beo_shaffer on 2013-02-04.
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At least one of gwern's R snippets posted to LW before December 5th, 2012 was falsified to test if any LWer actually double-checked his work. ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2012-12-05; known on 2013-01-31; judged wrong by papermachine on 2013-01-31.
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Plastic lightbulbs will be for sale by the start of 2014 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-20553143 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by beo_shaffer on 2012-12-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by beo_shaffer on 2014-01-01.
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Dooley will let me finish paper ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by beo_shaffer on 2012-11-16; known on 2012-11-30.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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Mitt Romney will win the popular vote in the 2012 US election ( 37% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-26; known on 2012-11-10; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-08.
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“Google's self-driving cars will be available [for purchase at a reasonable price to buy and drive legally] for everyone [the same market that can currently afford to buy a car] within five years” – Sergey Brin ( 16% confidence; 32 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Qiaochu on 2012-10-14; known on 2017-09-26; judged wrong by Tanner on 2017-09-26.
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They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040 ( 55% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-05; known on 2040-12-31.
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Someone on Fox News or one of the headlines on their website will claim that Mitt Romney won the 2012-10-03 presidential debate. ( 83% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by aaronsw on 2012-10-03; known on 2012-10-04; judged right by aaronsw on 2012-10-04.
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Gwern will teach/contribute/ta a mooc within 2 years ( 30% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by paulharris on 2012-09-22; known on 2014-09-22; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
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In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ( 9% confidence; 16 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-18; known on 2022-09-19; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-09-25.
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There will be press report of significant uproar in the U.S. in next 3 years against an anti-Christian video released on the internet (similar to anti muslim video but mirrored) ( 22% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-15; known on 2015-10-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-10-06.
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The “Anonymous Narratives by LW Women” thread will receive >500 comments ( 63% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Konkvistador on 2012-09-09; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by Athrelon on 2012-12-30.
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The “Anonymous Narratives by LW Women” thread will receive >100 comments ( 89% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Athrelon on 2012-09-09; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by beo_shaffer on 2012-09-12.
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Robin Hanson & Katja Grace will be in a publicly-known romantic relationship at some point in the next 10 years ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-02; known on 2022-09-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2022-09-02.
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Within 20 years the old river control structure will be destroyed, or fail* for reasons other than intentional decommissioning by the us government or its replacement. *The structure will be considered failed if for a month an average of 50% or greater la ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by beo_shaffer on 2012-08-29; known on 2032-08-29.
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Within 20 years the old river control structure will be intentionally disbanded by the US government or its successor and not replaced in any way, allowing the Mississippi to change course. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by beo_shaffer on 2012-08-29; known on 2032-08-29.
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will take advise and report improvement ( 43% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by beo_shaffer on 2012-08-06; known on 2012-10-06.
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My “shaming” comment will have negative karma at the end of 1 week from now. ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-02; known on 2012-07-09; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-10.
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Rutaesomn will offer to send me some free pills. ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-05-10; known on 2012-06-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-06-10.
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The “blind lawyer” Chinese dissident will come to the US (for however long) before end of 2012 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-05; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-05-19.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky retracts or significantly edits one of the posts in the quantum physics sequence in the next two years. ( 5% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2012-05-03; known on 2014-05-03; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-05-04.
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The twenty under twenty program will accept more than twenty fellows this year. ( 10% confidence )
Created by beo_shaffer on 2012-04-23; known on 2012-05-02; judged wrong by beo_shaffer on 2012-05-05.
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Nosek’s project to replicate findings from three major psychology journals will find that >=60% of them are failed replications ( 43% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by lweismantel on 2012-04-19; known on 2013-04-01; judged right by hedges on 2015-05-01.
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Nosek's project to replicate findings from three major psychology journals will find that >=30% of them are failed replications. ( 73% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by lweismantel on 2012-04-19; known on 2013-04-01; judged right by hedges on 2015-05-01.
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HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and Gilderoy Lockhart gave false memories via Memory Charm to Rita Skeeter ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Afforess on 2015-08-17.
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Given that they complete a least 48 attempted replications, less than 5% of the replications the reproducibility project* is attempting will successfully replicate at the p<.05 level. http://openscienceframework.org/project/shvrbV8uSkHewsfD4/wiki/index ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by beo_shaffer on 2012-04-19; known on 2022-10-10; judged wrong by CarlShulman on 2016-11-09.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be invoke the Imperius-debts of other Wizengamot members ( 18% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be make Dumbledore turn himself in to Lucius in exchange for Hermione's freedom ( 31% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be threaten to destroy Azkaban ( 5% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged right by Grognor on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be reveal the truth about Bellatrix's escape ( 1% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be offer the Wizengamot Voldemort's true identity (Quirrel) ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be accept Hermione's imprisonment but order the Dementors to leave her alone ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will involve destroying one of the Dementors ( 9% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be using the Time-turner in some way ( 23% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be using the Time-turner to alter Hermione's testimony to something easily falsifiable ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be using the Time-turner to affect Lucius in some way ( 10% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be using the Time-turner to smuggle Hermione out under the Cloak ( 4% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be ask for a trial by combat ( 2% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be have Quirrel make Bella confess to the crime ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: Harry will confess to having arranged the attempted murder of Malfoy. ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by beo_shaffer on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be invoking Lucius's debt to whomever killed his supposed Imperiuser ( 35% confidence; 21 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged right by Grognor on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be nothing (failure) ( 6% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: HPMOR will update at least twice in 2012 ( 95% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Isaac on 2012-03-16.
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George Zimmerman will be convicted of murder or manslaughter for the shooting of Trayvon Martin before 2015. ( 43% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-07; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-01.
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HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they gave false memories via Memory Charm to Rita Skeeter ( 79% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by RobertLumley on 2013-08-05.
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Hanson and Yudkowsky publish the AI FOOM debate (EDIT: in a peer-reviewed, academic journal) before 2015. ( 30% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2012-02-22; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.
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The final name for the SI spinoff currently called “rationality org” will be announced on Less Wrong within a week. ( 15% confidence; 7 comments )
Created by beo_shaffer on 2012-02-18; known on 2012-02-25; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-02-28.
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No contact with intelligent aliens be made in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 31 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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“There will be a major war, starting in the Middle East. Israel will lose (75%). China will probably join in on the radical-Muslim side. Iran will try to use its nukes but they will be duds. Israel will not use theirs…” —jdgalt ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-01-01.
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An alternative to the US-based Domain Name System will be created and it will be used more widely than the US-based system before 2015. ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-21; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2015-01-01.
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If Romney wins the Republican candidacy, then Obama will publicly offer him a bet sometime during the 2012 presidential campaign. This prediction will be withdrawn if the antecedent proposition is false. ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-14; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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Obama gets reelected and during that time Hillary Clinton brokers the middle east peace deal between Israel and Palestine for the two state solution. This secures her presidency in 2016. ( 9% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by lionflower on 2011-11-02; known on 2014-09-09; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2014-09-09.
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LW: average IQ in survey will be 140-145. ( 33% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-11-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-04.
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Owen will post an article about Direct Instruction on LW this year. ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-31.
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LW: Rationality Boot Camp will be declared a success. ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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The discussion post http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/842/the_sciencearchist_manifesto/'s comment section will contain a flame war started by someone other than myself by the end of this Friday ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by beo_shaffer on 2011-10-19; known on 2011-10-21; judged wrong by beo_shaffer on 2011-10-27.
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Third-party candidates will take at least 15% of the popular votes in the 2012 US presidential election. ( 26% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2011-10-09; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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The webcomic Angels 2200 will have a new full page update before the end of October. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by beo_shaffer on 2011-10-08; known on 2011-11-01; judged wrong by beo_shaffer on 2011-11-01.