Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 40% | 79% | 60% | 74% | 96% | 90% | |
Sample Size | 10 | 19 | 20 | 27 | 48 | 10 | 134 |
Displaying all predictions made by Leo. Filter by:
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80k will give personal 1:1 advice to Prownie ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Leo on 2023-08-18; known 14 days ago.
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aliens invade earth in 2023 ( 0% confidence; 21 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-12; known on 2023-12-31.
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Trump reelected in 2024. ( 31% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by bsl5265 on 2021-11-08; known on 2024-11-05.
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PRC troops invade Taiwan ( 20% confidence; 23 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-02-24; known on 2026-01-01.
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In Weir's Artemis, ZAFO is a ebbz grzcrengher fhcrepbaqhpgbe. ( 65% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2022-02-07; known on 2022-02-21; judged wrong by Leo on 2022-02-07.
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No widespread (>1%) issues with fertility as a result of the COVID-19 vaccine (e.g. pfizer) will be known (i.e. reported by reputable US based source e.g. NYT,FDA or equivalent) by 2022. ( 96% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ghodith on 2021-05-14; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by Ghodith on 2022-01-01.
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Omicron will be the majority strain in the US by the end of January ( 95% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2021-12-07; known on 2022-02-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2022-02-01.
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A bill to legalise Marijuana is passed in France before the end of June ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Andref2015 on 2021-12-08; known on 2022-06-16; judged wrong by Leo on 2022-07-05.
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[IFComp 2021] <4 of the top 10 scoring games are in my personal top 10 ( 80% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2021-11-15; known on 2021-11-22; judged wrong by Leo on 2021-11-21.
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[IFComp 2021] A game I have voted on will win ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Leo on 2021-11-15; known on 2021-11-22; judged right by Leo on 2021-11-21.
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[IFComp 2021] “Universal Hologram” will have the highest score stdev ( 40% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2021-11-15; known on 2021-11-22; judged wrong by Leo on 2021-11-21.
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[IFComp 2021] “Universal Hologram” will have a score stdev > 2 ( 70% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2021-11-15; known on 2021-11-22; judged wrong by Leo on 2021-11-21.
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[IFComp 2021] “Grandma Bethlinda's Remarkable Egg” will win ( 5% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2021-11-15; known on 2021-11-22; judged wrong by Leo on 2021-11-21.
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[IFComp 2021] “The Golden Heist” will win ( 20% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2021-11-15; known on 2021-11-22; judged wrong by Leo on 2021-11-21.
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[IFComp 2021] “Fine Felines” will win ( 20% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2021-11-15; known on 2021-11-22; judged wrong by Leo on 2021-11-21.
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[IFComp 2021] “And Then You Come to a House Not Unlike the Previous One” will win ( 25% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2021-11-15; known on 2021-11-22; judged right by Leo on 2021-11-21.
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The cure for cancer will be released to the world. ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by amandopando805 on 2021-11-06; known on 2031-11-06.
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[I will get married in] 2023 ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Leo on 2021-08-12; known on 2024-01-02.
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[I will get married in] 2022 ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Leo on 2021-08-12; known on 2024-01-02; judged right by Leo on 2022-02-07.
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[I will get married in] 2021 ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Leo on 2021-08-12; known on 2024-01-02; judged wrong by Leo on 2022-02-07.
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[In Asimov's A Whiff of Death Naqrefba'f pynvz abg gb xabj Arhsryq'f erfrnepu vf n yvr ( 90% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2021-05-15; known on 2021-05-22; judged right by Leo on 2021-05-15.
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[In Asimov's A Whiff of Death Gur ebznapr fhocybg vf n erq ureevat ( 60% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2021-05-15; known on 2021-05-22; judged right by Leo on 2021-05-15.
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[In Asimov's A Whiff of Death Arhsryq srnef Oenqr orpnhfr bs Naqrefba'f yvrf ( 80% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2021-05-15; known on 2021-05-22; judged wrong by Leo on 2021-05-15.
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[In Asimov's A Whiff of Death Naqrefba jnagrq gb fgrny perqvg sbe Arhsryq'f erfhygf ( 70% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2021-05-15; known on 2021-05-22; judged wrong by Leo on 2021-05-15.
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[In Asimov's A Whiff of Death md5(murderer's surname) = b32b1b822dd59451b17b08f97fdfe81e ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Leo on 2021-05-15; known on 2021-05-22; judged right by Leo on 2021-05-15.
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We will discover alien biosignatures via advanced telescopes investigating alien atmospheres ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Leo on 2021-05-14; known on 2030-01-01.
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I will lose my virginity before the Turing test is passed (operationalized as the $25,000 Loebner Prize) ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by lazydope on 2021-03-30; known on 2030-01-01.
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> 100 fatalities per 1e12 revenue passenger kilometres on commercial airliners over 2040-2050 ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Leo on 2021-01-02; known on 2051-01-01.
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The picture of the penis-shaped Christian Science church in Dixon (IL) with the bursting water pipe is doctored. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Leo on 2020-06-14; known on 2020-06-14; judged right by Leo on 2020-06-14.
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Will Sirocco the kakapo become a father? ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2099-01-01.
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Will Sirocco the kakapo die before 2030? ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2031-01-01.
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Jimmy Carter to become a centenarian ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2025-01-01.
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Some vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 will have successfully passed phase 3 trials by the 15th of October 2020. ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mathieu_Putz on 2020-05-28; known on 2020-10-22; judged wrong by Mathieu_Putz on 2021-03-21.
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OoTS: MitD is the Snarl. ( 15% confidence; 11 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-06-30; known on 2022-01-01.
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Javascript is still the dominant programming language in browsers by 2030 ( 78% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-12-31.
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Donald Trump will NOT be re-elected ( 55% confidence; 26 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by tcsmithbiz@yahoo.com on 2019-12-23; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2020-11-07.
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Someone will succeed at the IMO grand challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io) in the next 10 years. ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2019-09-15; known on 2029-09-15.
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Barnes & Noble still exists and operates at least 10 book stores ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Leo on 2019-07-05; known on 2022-07-05; judged right by Leo on 2022-07-05.
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Gwern is Jim Babcock. ( 13% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by deleteyourbrain on 2019-04-29; known on 2025-04-28.
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Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX) ( 3% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Leo on 2018-10-23; known on 2028-10-23.
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People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts. ( 33% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Leo on 2018-10-21; known on 2028-10-21.
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Not more than 100 mio. people will have died of attacks by nuclear weapons by 2061. ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-19; known on 2061-01-01.
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[In 2018 I will read at least] 90 books ( 85% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2018-08-27; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Leo on 2019-01-01.
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[In 2018 I will read at least] 120 books ( 20% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2018-08-27; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Leo on 2019-01-01.
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[In 2018 I will read at least] 110 books ( 40% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2018-08-27; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Leo on 2019-01-01.
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[In 2018 I will read at least] 100 books ( 50% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2018-08-27; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Leo on 2019-01-01.
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[In 2018 I will read at least] 80 books ( 99% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2018-08-27; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Leo on 2019-01-01.
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User:vi will be personally affected by something previously reported in the news. If he hasn't heard of it by the time it affects him, he will wish he had. ( 70% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Leo on 2013-08-31; known on 2063-08-31.
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Ethereal will win TCEC season 13 ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Leo on 2018-08-27; known on 2018-09-06; judged wrong by Leo on 2018-10-06.
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Chiron will win TCEC season 13 ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Leo on 2018-08-27; known on 2018-09-06; judged wrong by Leo on 2018-10-06.
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Donald Trump will be reelected. ( 44% confidence; 22 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by alvastarr on 2018-07-26; known on 2020-11-05; judged wrong by avi on 2020-11-07.
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A single Falcon 9 Block 5 core will launch twice within 24 hours during 2019. ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-05-15; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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In 5 years programmers will be expected to write formally proven programs to the same or more extent as they're expected to write tests today ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jach on 2017-11-17; known on 2022-11-17; judged wrong by crabman on 2022-11-17.
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social movement with explicit reference to kyriarchy as a tenet commits mass murder (>10,000 people) ( 9% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-18; known on 2042-01-01.
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The duration of copyright in America will be extended before 2024 ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by aoeu on 2015-05-01; known on 2024-01-01.
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Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death. ( 6% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2017-03-17; known on 2037-03-17; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-09-08.
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A city of population >50,000 in the United States will ban the sale of all meat products that came from a sentient animal ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Dapple on 2016-11-15; known on 2030-01-01.
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51%+ of remaining humanity are muslims ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-03; known on 2046-09-03.
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Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-11; known on 2056-01-01.
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Kings XI Punjab win 2016 IPL ( 3% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2016-04-07; known on 2016-05-30; judged wrong by Leo on 2016-05-26.
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Kolkata Knight Riders win 2016 IPL ( 30% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2016-04-07; known on 2016-05-30; judged wrong by Leo on 2016-05-26.
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A male friend of mine will marry a woman, only to have it revealed later that she's transitioning to being a man ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-25; known on 2023-01-01.
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World will eliminate malaria by 2030. ( 69% confidence; 13 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-14; known on 2030-12-25.
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No terrorist attack in the in the US will kill > 100 people in 2016 ( 88% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Effective herpes vaccine developed by 2040 ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by btrettel on 2015-10-12; known on 2041-01-01.
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A258107 to be proven to be finite by January 1, 2045. ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-10; known on 2045-01-01.
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There to be more kakapo in 2030 than 2010 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.
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James D. Watson to become a centenarian ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2028-04-07.
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Kea (Nestor Notabilis) to go extinct in the wild by 2030 ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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By January 1, 2045, each of the cities of Flagstaff, Las Vegas, Albuquerque, Clovis, Prescott, Henderson, Hobbs, and Abilene will have a population of at most 10% its population compared to the population in 2015. ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-06; known on 2045-01-03.
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HP MoR: Hat & Cloak is Voldemort, but not Quirrel ( 23% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-03-16; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black. ( 13% confidence; 24 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-17; known on 2024-06-16.
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Dorian S. Nakamoto is the Satoshi Nakamoto. (Nobody will prove / find really compelling evidence as to why Dorian is not Satoshi in 2014) ( 31% confidence; 27 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by Tenoke on 2014-03-06; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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Correcting for education, IQ, income, religion, race, age, and some measure of health, rural people are more likely than urban people to commit the naturalistic fallacy. ( 59% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Leo on 2014-02-09; known on 2024-02-09.
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Patrick prefers mild curries to hot ones. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Leo on 2013-09-26; known on 2013-09-26; judged wrong by Leo on 2013-09-26.
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Patrick likes cheddar. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2013-09-21; known on 2013-09-21; judged wrong by Leo on 2013-09-21.
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The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022 ( 34% confidence; 35 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-15; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by M on 2022-01-01.
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Israeli election: The new government's coalition will include Likud/Yisrael Beiteinu. ( 82% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ygert on 2013-01-24; known on 2013-03-20; judged right by ygert on 2013-03-20.
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Jon Snow alive at beginning of The Winds of Winter ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Leo on 2013-01-19; known on 2025-01-01.
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I will win the AI Box Experiment (Playing as an AI) scheduled on Sunday. ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13; known on 2013-01-21; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-20.
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Economic and social collapse in the United States will progress to a point that Barack Obama will use emergency powers in order to not cede the office of the President at the end of his second term, perhaps even cancelling elections in 2016. ie Empire ( 3% confidence; 32 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by thephilosiraptor on 2013-01-13; known on 2017-01-20; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-20.
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Lauren McNamara will be dropped as a witness for the defense in the trial against Bradley Manning. ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by alecbrooks on 2013-01-11; known on 2013-07-01; judged wrong by alecbrooks on 2013-07-09.
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Gwern has dissociative identity disorder and the identity of his split personality is Yvain. ( 0% confidence; 28 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2020-01-01.
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I will not be able to get a girlfriend before the end of 2013. ( 73% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2012-12-28; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by Tuxedage on 2014-01-02.
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Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 — Aubrey de Grey ( 13% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.
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A Libertarian Party candidate will receive more of the popular vote in the 2016 presidential election than the Republican candidate. ( 6% confidence; 23 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-02; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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At least one of Sasha and Malia Obama will say they have or had an eating disorder. ( 29% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2012-09-04; known on 2032-09-04.
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Scott Siskind will stil be an atheist by 2014. ( 96% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Kaj_Sotala on 2012-08-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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No goal will have been scored after 10 minutes in the Spain-Ireland football match on 2012-06-14 ( 90% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2012-06-14; known on 2012-06-15; judged wrong by Leo on 2012-06-15.
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The “Rapture” will not occur by the end of 2050. ( 99% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by davidiach on 2012-06-06; known on 2050-12-31.
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Facebook won't buy Opera (the browser) in 2012 ( 77% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-26; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.
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Eduardo Saverin will un-renounce or try to regain his US citizenship sometime in his life ( 28% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-13; known on 2072-12-31.
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I will die by non-suicide means by the end of 2012. ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-05-10; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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Facebook will buy Evernote before end of 2013 ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-05; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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I will attempt suicide this year ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Leo on 2012-05-02; known on 2013-05-03; judged wrong by Leo on 2013-05-03.
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Hugo Chavez dies in the year 2012 ( 27% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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HP MoR: Hat & Cloak is not a character from canon. He is, in fact, a character from an anime. ( 1% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-15; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Humans can be irrevocably transformed into House-Elves, and this is revealed in chapter 80. ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-19; known on 2012-03-22; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-03-23.
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HP MoR: <4 2+-page chapters of MoR in 2012. —Bugmaster ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-04.
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Foreign military intervention in Mali ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Leo on 2012-03-26; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.