Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 52% | 60% | 72% | 78% | 93% | 97% | |
Sample Size | 126 | 209 | 180 | 240 | 430 | 346 | 1531 |
Displaying all predictions made by Tapetum-Lucidum. Filter by:
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Hillary will win the democratic nomination. ( 79% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NobodySpecial on 2016-01-20; known on 2016-07-28; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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US real GDP growth rate for 2018 will be under 2.0% ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-20; known on 2018-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-27.
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The S&P 500 will go below 1867 on Jan 20th 2016 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-20; known on 2016-01-21; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-20.
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I will be out of my sling in 6 weeks. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-18; known on 2016-03-05; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-21.
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US recession in 2016. ( 48% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-17; known on 2017-01-18; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-18.
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Micron's stock will go below 10.50 before February 1, 2016 ( 71% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-17; known on 2016-02-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-20.
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Baidu's stock price will go below 160 before February 1, 2016 ( 53% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-17; known on 2016-02-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-30.
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Chinese economy will be larger than the US in the future. After that, India is the next best candidate that could surpass US economy in the next 25 years. After that China and India could be competing for number one — Masoyoshi Son, Softbank ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-17; known on 2040-06-24.
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Price of oil above $60 by the end of this year. http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=price+of+oil ( 13% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-02.
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Price of oil above $20 by the end of this year. http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=price+of+oil ( 87% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2017-01-16; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-01-02.
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Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years. ( 10% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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North Korean government collapses in the next 5 years. ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Amazon stock price will reach $700 at some point in 2016. ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by roshni on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by roshni on 2016-05-11.
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Marco Rubio will win the 2016 Republican Primary in New Hampshire ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-02-10; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-02-10.
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Donald Trump will win the 2016 Republican Primary in New Hampshire. ( 58% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-02-10; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-10.
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Ted Cruz will win the 2016 Republican Primary in New Hampshire. ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-02-10; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-02-10.
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Ted Cruz will win the 2016 Republican Caucus in Iowa ( 45% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-02-02; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-02.
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Donald Trump will win the 2016 Republican Caucus in Iowa ( 43% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-02-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-02.
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Marco Rubio will win the 2016 Republican Caucus in Iowa. ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-02-02; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2016-02-02.
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Any EU member state declares war against other EU member state during this prediction. (wars from archives don't count, has to be new declaration of war) ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers; 16 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-01.
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Sweden declares war against any EU member state ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-01.
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Sweden declares war against any member of Nordic Council ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-01.
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Sweden declares war against Iceland ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-01.
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Sweden declares war against Denmark ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-01.
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Sweden declares war against Norway ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-01.
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Sweden declares war against Finland ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-01.
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There will be at least one active probe in Martian orbit or on Mars at least until either January 1, 2050 or until humans visit Mars. ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-14; known on 2050-01-01.
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China will fall into disorder and civil war by the end of 2017 ( 6% confidence; 21 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by chinawillfall on 2016-01-13; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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The Chinese economy will completely collapse by 2017. ( 7% confidence; 20 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by chinawillfall on 2016-01-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Why Apple Will Hit $1,650 by the End of 2015 and earn $610 billion revenue —Eric Jackson, Forbes ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-13; known on 2016-01-14; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-13.
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OPEC basket price on a monthly basis will bottom out at $25 for 2016. ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-12; known on 2016-12-29.
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Donald Trump will win the first four primaries/caucuses (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada). ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-11; known on 2016-02-25; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2016-02-02.
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Computers will beat the best humans at Go before 2017 ( 54% confidence; 21 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Houshalter on 2016-01-11; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Houshalter on 2016-03-15.
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The Shanghai Composite will fall below 3000 before the end of the week ( 79% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-11; known on 2016-01-16; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-13.
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The S&P 500 will fall by more than 1% on January 11, 2016 ( 87% confidence )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-11; known on 2017-01-12; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-12.
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The VIX index will go above 35 by April 1, 2016 ( 41% confidence; 13 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-11; known on 2016-04-01; judged wrong by equivrel-markets on 2016-04-02.
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The VIX index will go above 30 before February 1, 2016 ( 35% confidence; 16 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-11; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-02.
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Blackstone's stock price will go below $20 before January 1, 2017 ( 38% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-11; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Sean Penn will end up killed in gang-related violence. ( 13% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-11; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2021-10-13.
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The Shanghai Composite will fall by more than 2% on Monday, January 11, 2016. ( 66% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-10; known on 2016-01-12; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-11.
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Gentoo will remain my primary OS over the next decade ( 57% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jach on 2016-01-10; known on 2026-01-10.
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The depth in the bid logs can be increased cheaply ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02; known on 2016-01-15.
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Bear Market in the USA: Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 to experience at least 20% decline from peak in 2015. ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-09; known on 2016-12-25; judged wrong by mortehu on 2016-12-31.
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Joaquín Guzmán Loera (El Chapo) will escape from prison again before 2020 ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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The FANG group will have their valuations cut in half from their 2015 peak. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-09; known on 2016-12-25; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-17.
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By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders – sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy… – in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications. ( 34% confidence; 18 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2016-01-08; known on 2026-12-31.
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Malheur insurgency to be resolved within a week. ( 38% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-01-08; known on 2016-01-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-16.
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Donald Trump's pick for VP will be Ted Cruz. (No nomination needed; withdrawn if Trump does not pick.) ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-08; known on 2016-07-18; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-15.
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I will switch away from Sublime Text as my primary editor before 2017 ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-08; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-01.
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Oman Crude will trade at an average price of below $30 for the first 6 months of 2016. ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-08; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-02.
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By 2028, we will have seen a spate of articles (say more than 5) discussing law enforcement's concern that self-driving cars have reduced their ability to apprehend criminals, and municipalities' concern that their revenue has dropped. ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-07; known on 2028-01-01.
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By 2021, we will have seen a spate of articles (say more than 5) discussing law enforcement's concern that self-driving cars have reduced their ability to apprehend criminals, and municipalities' concern that their revenue has dropped. ( 53% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by coyotespike on 2016-01-07; known on 2021-12-16; judged wrong by Medea on 2021-12-31.
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Bitcoin will reach at least 600 USD for at least 24 hours on at least 2 major exchanges at some point in 2016 ( 47% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Afforess on 2016-01-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by mortehu on 2016-06-25.
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China's Shanghai Composite Index will be down 33+% YTD ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2016-01-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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100% IPV6 deployment by 2020. ( 27% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-07; known on 2020-12-25; judged wrong by Medea on 2021-01-08.
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No 3rd party verification for North Korea's claim to have tested a thermonuclear weapon. ( 74% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-06; known on 2016-12-16; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-08.
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I will not watch any more of The Expanse before 2016-02-09 ( 95% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-06; known on 2016-02-10; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-09.
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The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding citizenship from a country not already listed, and/or all other catchall outcomes. ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.
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The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding UK citizenship. ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.
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The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Russian citizenship. ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.
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The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Indian citizenship. ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.
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The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Chinese citizenship. ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.
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The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Iranian citizenship. ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.
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The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Brazilian citizenship. ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.
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The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship. ( 46% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.
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Star Wars: The Force Awakens will gross above 2.8 Billion USD globally ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-04; known on 2016-06-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-07-06.
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Center for International Development at Harvard University predicts 3.7% GDP growth rate for South Africa in 2015- 2024. ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-04; known on 2024-12-25.
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Center for International Development at Harvard University predicts 1.96% GDP growth rate for Rossiya(Росси́я) in 2015- 2024. ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-04; known on 2024-12-25.
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Center for International Development at Harvard University predicts 3.34% GDP growth rate for Brasil in 2015- 2024. ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-04; known on 2024-12-16.
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I will write 3,000+ lines of Rust in 2016 ( 47% confidence; 6 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-31.
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Before 2017, I will switch from Ubuntu back to Windows for most of my desktop computing ( 17% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-01.
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I will convince another person to adopt a vegan or vegetarian diet (for a minimum of two months) next semester ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2016-01-03; known on 2016-04-01; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-04-19.
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Bharat will export USD $1 trillion worth of merchandise in 2020. ( 55% confidence; 6 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-14; known on 2020-01-02; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-14.
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Hillary Clinton will be elected president. ( 61% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by taylorcp on 2016-01-02; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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There is sufficient depth in the bid logs ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02; known on 2016-04-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-04-07.
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The CBOE's stock price will go above $75 before January 1, 2017 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-18.
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Apple's stock price will go above $120 before January 1, 2017. ( 56% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02; known on 2017-01-02; judged wrong by mortehu on 2016-12-30.
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Apple's stock price will go above $110 before February 1, 2016 ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02; known on 2016-02-02; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-02.
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Gilead's stock price will go above $120 before January 1, 2017 ( 69% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02; known on 2017-01-02; judged wrong by Temeraire on 2017-01-05.
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Facebook's stock price will go above $120 before January 1, 2017 ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by mortehu on 2016-04-28.
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FireEye's stock price will go above $25 before January 1, 2017 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-18.
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Blackstone's February 2016 dividend will be below $0.60 per share ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02; known on 2016-01-31; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-02-01.
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Brazil's GDP will be above its 2014 level in 2018. ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.
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3D XPoint will be released by January 1, 2017 ( 89% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-02-25.
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The Energy Conversion Devices bankruptcy case will not conclude on January 20, 2016 ( 88% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02; known on 2016-01-21; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-17.
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I will purchase an Oculus Rift by March 30, 2016 ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02; known on 2016-04-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-08.
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Oculus Rift preorders will begin before January 31, 2016 ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02; known on 2016-02-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-09.
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The Hyatt cyberattacks will not be definitively traced to nation-state actors before January 1st, 2017. ( 75% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-08.
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Rosa Parks will be on the new 10 dollar bill. ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-15; known on 2016-07-02; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-04-21.
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Eleanor Roosevelt will be on the new 10 dollar bill. ( 18% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-15; known on 2016-07-02; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-04-21.
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Ebola epidemic has ended. ( 93% confidence; 16 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-01-14; judged right by ioannes on 2016-01-14.
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2016 predictions: No US politicians will be assassinated. ( 92% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-12-31.
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2016 predictions: there will not be any terrorist attacks in the US that kill more than 40 people. ( 74% confidence; 22 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-12.
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2016 predictions: World War III will happen. ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-12-31.
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2016 predictions: I will have a baby. ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
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2016 predictions: I will end the year still living in the Boston area. ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
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2016 predictions: I will complete 1 (or more) Kaggle competitions. ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-02-10.
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2016 predictions: I will complete 2 (or more) Kaggle competitions. ( 87% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-02-10.
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2016 predictions: I will complete 3 or more Kaggle competitions. ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
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2016 predictions: I will have >100 new (resolved) predictions on PredictionBook. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-06-27.