In 2012, Clashes between North Korea and South Korea will result in fatalities, or the North Korean government will collapse.
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
- JoshuaZ estimated 75% on 2012-01-02
- gwern estimated 60% and said “got burned on http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2097” on 2012-01-02
- ahartell estimated 60% on 2012-01-03
- JoshuaZ judged this prediction wrong on 2013-01-01.
- JoshuaZ said “Surprisingly peaceful time period I guess. ” on 2013-01-01
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