Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 53% | 65% | 78% | 86% | 94% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 616 | 437 | 419 | 458 | 711 | 175 | 2816 |
Displaying all predictions made by JoshuaZ. Filter by:
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Malnutrition trends in Bharat:By 2030 Wasting among under 3 children will be at 0%. ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-16; known on 2030-12-25.
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By 2038 0% of children will be underweight in Bharat. ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-16; known on 2038-12-25.
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By 2030 child malnutrition(underweight) in Bharat will fall to 7.4%. ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-16; known on 2030-12-25.
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By 2022, child malnutrition(underweight) in Bharat will fall to 18.4%. ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-16; known on 2022-12-25.
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Bharat will win more than 10 medals at Rio 2016 — Sports Minister Sarbananda Sonowal ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-16; known on 2016-08-22; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-08-22.
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The New Development Bank will make more loans in billions of dollars per year, than the IMF by 2022. ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-15; known on 2022-12-16.
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Since 2001, the total number of low-income countries has nearly halved to 34, as 31 graduated to middle-income status. By 2026, another 31 will graduate, leaving only 3 countries in low income status. ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-15; known on 2026-12-25.
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US citizen killed by US government in drone strike on continental US soil before 2023 ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-13; known on 2024-01-01.
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Global thermonuclear war, worldwide by Jan 1, 2016 ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-11; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
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War between North and South Korea breaks out by Jan 1, 2016 ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-11; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-31.
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By 2030, USA will have 8% of the estimated 300 million 25-34 yr old graduates ( 89% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-10; known on 2030-12-25.
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By 2030, Bharat will have 23% of the estimated 300 million 25-34 yr old graduates. ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-10; known on 2030-12-25.
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Bharat and Zhongguo will account for more than 60% of the OECD and G20 STEM graduates. ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-10; known on 2030-12-25.
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BRIICS countries will produce 75% global STEM graduates by 2030. ( 86% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-10; known on 2030-12-25.
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Bharat will be ranked 7th in 2021, up from 13th in 2014 in the Nature Index.(Qualitative Science ranking) ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-10; known on 2021-12-25.
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Bharat will be ranked No3 in the world for science by 2022(ranked by Citable documents, Scopus DB). ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-30; known on 2021-12-16.
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Bharat had 21,269 Web of science papers in 2003 to 45,639 in 2012.Bharat's world share will increase from 3.6% to a lower bound of 4.7%, 66,700 science papers by 2021. ( 89% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-09; known on 2021-12-10.
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Craig S. Wright will not (in the next year) demonstrate possession of the key with fingerprint DE4E FCA3 E1AB 9E41 CE96 CECB 18C0 9E86 5EC9 48A1, nor of any other key or bitcoin convincingly belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto. ( 82% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by James Babcock on 2015-12-09; known on 2016-12-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-09.
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Brasil’s research papers in Web of Science increased in 2003 to 2012 from 1.7% to 2.7%. It's world share will be at least 3.7% by 2021. ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-09; known on 2021-12-16.
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The New York times will report it confirmed that Craig Wright is Satoshi Nakamoto by 2016-12-31 ( 18% confidence; 13 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by solipsist on 2015-12-09; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by solipsist on 2016-12-31.
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World share in science papers for the United States fell from 33% in 2003 to 27.8% in 2012.By 2021 it will be under 22.6%. — Web of Science, Thomson Reuters ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-09; known on 2021-12-10.
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WIMPs will be discovered by beginning of 2020. ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2015-12-08; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-20.
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Rural electrification: 18,452 villages are to be provided electricity in Bharat under the Deen Dayal Upadhyay Gramin Jyoti Yojana by May 1, 2018. ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-07; known on 2018-05-02.
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Bharat total exports in world markets to be 3.5% by 2020, doubling it in five years. USD 900 billion by 2020, almost double from USD 461 billion in 2013-14. -High Commissioner Vijay Thakur Singh ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-27; known on 2020-12-26.
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Japanese lawmakers will pass a bill after the Upper House Elections in the Fall of 2016 legalizing casino-type gambling; furthermore a 'head tax' similar to the system in Singapore will be imposed on Japanese citizens but more likely Japanese residents. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by amexfireplace on 2015-12-05; known on 2016-11-21; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-12-04.
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Bharat: HNWI wealth is forecasted at USD 1.425 trillion in 2016, rising to USD 2.3 trillion by 2020. —Julius Baer wealth report ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-02; known on 2020-12-25.
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Bharat's incremental GDP will pass USA in 2014-15. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-03; known on 2016-05-16; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-04-26.
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Boehner's resignation turns out to be part of a play to get Boehner on one of the GOP presidential tickets. ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-09-29; known on 2016-11-16; judged wrong by Afforess on 2016-10-06.
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All Ohio Kasich/Boehner ticket wins GOP nomination. ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-09-29; known on 2016-11-16; judged wrong by Afforess on 2016-10-06.
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U.S will experience a recession before 2019 according to FRED data ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ArturoGoosnargh on 2015-12-01; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2019-05-21.
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I will finish grading both my 101 exams and my 463 exams before Monday. ( 69% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-28; known on 2015-11-30; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-30.
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The IMF will vote in favor of adding the Yuan to the Special Drawing Rights basket on Nov 30th, 2015 ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-11-27; known on 2015-11-30; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-30.
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The Force Awakens will reveal the Darth Darth Binks theory to be broadly correct. ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Calien on 2015-11-25; known on 2015-12-17; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-12-26.
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The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045. ( 25% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2015-11-24; known on 2045-01-01.
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University of Ottawa yoga class that was cancelled due to cultural appropriation complaints will be un-cancelled in the next month. ( 13% confidence; 53 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-11-23; known on 2015-12-22; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-12-26.
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At least 1 person will be arrested in Belgium before the end of the prediction for charges that include something related to terrorism. ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2015-11-22; known on 2015-11-29; judged right by kuudes on 2015-11-23.
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Bharat will be ranked 2nd in the world by internet users, at least 402 million. ( 98% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-19; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-30.
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The next candidate to drop out of the Republican primary will be one of Santorum, Gilmore, Pataki, Graham or Pence. ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-18; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by danielfilan on 2015-12-22.
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I will be accepted for an internship at DeepMind. ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-12-03.
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There are ground troops from one or more then EU member states that are at least 1000 persons strong on ground of what is currently Syria at least once before the end of prediction. ( 30% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2015-11-16; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-07-01.
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Within 25 years, a state with UN representation will exist whose territory incorporates portions of both Iran and Syria. ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-11-16; known on 2040-01-01.
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The VIX index will go above 23 by December 4th. ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-11-14; known on 2015-12-05; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-12-05.
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The VIX index will go above 22 by December 4th. ( 52% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-11-14; known on 2015-12-05; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-12-05.
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The Secular Solstice event is able to raise $6125 by Nov. 18th. ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-11-13; known on 2015-11-19; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-11-19.
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Sam's comment will reach 1000 karma. ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-11-13; known on 2015-12-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2015-11-17.
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JT will defriend me on Facebook by January 1, 2016 ( 29% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-12; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-10.
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At least one country leaves the Eurozone before 2018 ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by qznc on 2015-11-12; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Juno spacecraft sends images from Jupiter ( 89% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2015-11-12; known on 2016-07-04; judged right by jessriedel on 2016-07-05.
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In 2016 Tesla Motors will sell a <$30,000 electric car. ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by qznc on 2015-11-12; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2017-01-03.
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Anand will win the London Chess Classic ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-13; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-12-14.
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US economy will be in recession by 2017. ( 41% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-12; known on 2017-12-25; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-12-25.
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I will receieve “Reasons and Persons” and “On What Matters” by Derek Parfit as Christmas gifts this year. ( 53% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-26; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-12-26.
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Brexit: UK will vote to leave the EU in the referendum. ( 39% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-11; known on 2017-11-25; judged right by mortehu on 2016-06-25.
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Max Steinberg will place in the top 3 at the 2015 World Series Of Poker (WSOP) Main Event. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Lissy on 2015-11-09; known on 2015-11-10; judged wrong by Lissy on 2015-11-10.
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Nicholas Christakis to cease to be Master of Silliman College by January 1, 2016 ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-09; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-01-06.
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Nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan in the next 10 years ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-06; known on 2025-11-07.
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If N is an odd perfect number, under assumption that 3 does not divide N, improvement of linear term on Theorem 1 of Ochem and Rao by 2018 ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-05; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-04.
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English Wikipedia will have greater than or equal to 6,000,000 articles by the end date of this prediction ( 22% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-05; known on 2018-11-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2018-11-01.
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The list of top charities that GiveWell will release next will include a charity that is not currently listed. ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-11-20.
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Out of the universities that I send out PhD applications to, I will be accepted by at least half. ( 63% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-05; known on 2016-05-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-03-03.
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David Leyonhjelm will not be a member of the Parliamentary Committee on Law Enforcement on March 1, 2016. ( 14% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-05; known on 2016-03-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-03-01.
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By the end of 2020, the obesity rate among adults 20 years or older in the United States will drop from 34.9% in 2012 to 30%… +/- .9 percent. ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Lissy on 2015-11-04; known on 2020-12-31.
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Scott Adams – I predict Trump gets at least 65% of the votes in the general election. ( 4% confidence; 20 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by halfwit on 2015-11-03; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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By the end of the century, one or more countries bordering the Persian Gulf (or their successor national or subnational territories) will have a permanent human population of zero. ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-10-27; known on 2116-01-01.
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Missouri will be a swing state in 2016 (within 1% of the vote margin of the median Electoral College vote). ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-10-31; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Bharat will eliminate absolute poverty(WB:1.90 USD definition) by 2024 ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-02; known on 2024-11-03.
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Effective Altruism Canberra will have 15 prospective members, allowing them to affiliate with the Australian National University Students Association, by the end of this year. ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-02; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by danielfilan on 2016-01-01.
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At least 3 more people in the US will get the bubonic plague by year-end 2016. ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-11-01; known on 2017-01-02; judged unknown by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-12-26.
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ATK will successfully launch by Feb 1, 2016 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-01; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-01.
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ATK will successfully launch by December 4th. ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-01; known on 2015-12-05; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-05.
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I will run into another Leeloo on Halloween. ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-29; known on 2015-11-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-11-01.
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Zhongguo will be a high income country by 2022 ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-28; known on 2022-12-12; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-18.
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The Long Range Strike Bomber will cost at least $846 million per plane (in FY2016 dollars). ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by quanticle on 2015-10-28; known on 2025-01-01.
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Bharat's ranking in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business report would be at least 105, up from 130 in 2016. ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-28; known on 2017-11-30; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-30.
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By 2025, proven that there exist infinitely many primes p and q with |p-q| < 200. ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-30; known on 2025-01-01.
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5-sigma evidence of neutrinoless double beta decay by January 1, 2025 ( 52% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-26; known on 2025-01-02.
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I will have marked all assignments (except ones suspected of plagiarism) by noon Thursday. ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-10-26; known on 2015-10-29; judged right by danielfilan on 2015-10-28.
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Venezuela to go to war with at least one other country before November 1, 2025. ( 18% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-25; known on 2025-11-02.
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We will know the elections results in Poland on Tuesday or earlier ( 81% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by argothiel on 2015-10-25; known on 2015-10-28; judged right by argothiel on 2015-10-26.
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Coalition for the Renewal of the Republic – Liberty and Hope will get to the Parliament during 2015 elections in Poland ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by argothiel on 2015-10-25; known on 2015-10-29; judged wrong by argothiel on 2015-10-26.
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Law and Justice party will win the 2015 elections in Poland ( 95% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by argothiel on 2015-10-25; known on 2015-10-29; judged right by argothiel on 2015-10-26.
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Lowest grade of the Math 101 test will be 13/50 ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-23; known on 2015-10-26; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-26.
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The average for the 1 PM math 101 class will be higher than that for the 10 AM. ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-23; known on 2015-10-26; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-26.
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The average for the math 101 test on voting theory will be at least 40/50. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-23; known on 2015-10-26; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-26.
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Paul Ryan will become Speaker of the House of Representatives in 2015 ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2015-10-23; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Afforess on 2015-10-29.
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The @VegAssist Twitter bot will have at least 60 followers by the end of 2015. ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by akrasib on 2015-10-22; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by akrasib on 2015-10-27.
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CIA director John Brennan will resign by 1 Feb 2015 ( 18% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by James Babcock on 2015-10-21; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by James Babcock on 2016-02-01.
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Haruki Murakami will win the next Nobel Prize in Literature. ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-10-20; known on 2016-11-01; judged wrong by penten on 2016-10-14.
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Tsai Ing-wen will win the election for the Presidency of the Republic of China (Taiwan). ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-10-20; known on 2016-01-17; judged right by danielfilan on 2016-01-16.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky to have at least 1 child by 2020 ( 22% confidence; 31 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by sdr on 2015-10-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-01-01.
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Russia to be at war or to have common media reports of many troops engaging in combat in a European country other than Ukraine by the end of 2018. ( 57% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-20; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-30.
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A predictive intelligence will emerge in the year 2031 to publicly accuse me of engaging in prediction-based warfare. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by SmoothPorcupine on 2015-10-18; known on 2032-07-16.
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A predictive intelligence will emerge in the year 2032 to accuse me of engaging in prediction-based warfare. ( 3% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by SmoothPorcupine on 2015-10-18; known on 2032-07-16.
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463 midterm average will be at least 45 out of 60. ( 42% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-18; known on 2015-10-19; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-18.
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463 midterm average will be at least 15 out of 60 ( 90% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-18; known on 2015-10-19; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-18.
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463 midterm average will be at least 25 out of 60. ( 63% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-18; known on 2015-10-19; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-18.
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Average for 463 midterm will be at least 35 out of 60. ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-18; known on 2015-10-19; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-18.
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I will finish grading my 463 students' midterm by midnight EST tonight. ( 65% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-18; known on 2015-10-19; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-18.
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Xi Jinping pledges to remove poverty in Zhongguo by 2020. 70.17 million people in the countryside live below the poverty line of 2,300 yuan (USD 376) in annual income at 2014. ( 38% confidence; 4 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-17; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2021-06-11.
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Zhongguo's wind power capacity will hit 120 gigawatts ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-17; known on 2015-12-25; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-05.