Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 57% | 0% | 78% | 83% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 24 |
Displaying all predictions made by Johannes C. Mayer. Filter by:
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My idea about how to operationalize roundness will be correct to a significant degree (only some small things are missing and the definition largely makes sense). ( 40% confidence )
Created by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-09-15.
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Will I get an extension to the SERI MATS program? ( 40% confidence )
Created by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-09-15.
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Garrett and Chu will both get an extension to the SERI MATS program. ( 88% confidence )
Created by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-09-15.
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Quintin will get an extension to the SERI MATS program ( 98% confidence )
Created by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-09-15.
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Will I make a prediction in prediction before the end of the SERI MATS program after today. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-09-15; judged wrong by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-09-17.
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There will be SERI MATS 3, within 2 years. ( 82% confidence )
Created by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-07-28; known on 2024-07-28; judged right by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-09-17.
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Created by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-09-22; judged right by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-09-22.
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There will be another event at the Rosegarden Inn that I will go to during SERI MATS. ( 98% confidence )
Created by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-09-15; judged right by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-09-17.
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I will use the lightcone nap room at least one more time, before the end of the SERI MATS program. ( 97% confidence )
Created by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-09-15; judged right by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-09-17.
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I will never eat a candy bar again during the SERI MATS program. ( 5% confidence )
Created by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-09-15; judged wrong by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-09-17.
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I will buy and use the Z3 fold as my new phone. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-09-15; judged right by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-09-17.
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I will not drink so much soylent that I will feel sick before the end of the SERI MATS program. ( 20% confidence )
Created by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-09-15; judged wrong by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-09-17.
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I will play a video game on my laptop before the end of the SERI MATS program. ( 10% confidence )
Created by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-09-15; judged right by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-09-17.
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After the SERI MATS program, I will estimate that I would have paid all my money to participate in it. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-09-15; judged right by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-09-17.