Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] the UK to have held a general election ( 19% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-04.
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[Politics] Martial law to be declared in at least part of Hong Kong by October 2019 EOM ( 23% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-04.
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Mauricio Macri is re-elected President of Argentina ( 44% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-12-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-11-03.
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[My total days exercised this year:] 190 ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-11-03.
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[My total days exercised this year:] 180 ( 46% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-11-03.
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[My total days exercised this year:] 170 ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-11-03.
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[Winner of WCS Global Finals is] Trap ( 2% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-31; known on 2019-11-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-11-02.
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[Winner of WCS Global Finals is] soO ( 3% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-31; known on 2019-11-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-11-02.
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[Winner of WCS Global Finals is] Classic ( 4% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-31; known on 2019-11-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-11-02.
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[Winner of WCS Global Finals is] Rogue ( 8% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-31; known on 2019-11-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-11-02.
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[Winner of WCS Global Finals is] Reynor ( 12% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-31; known on 2019-11-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-11-02.
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[Winner of WCS Global Finals is] Maru ( 18% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-31; known on 2019-11-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-11-02.
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[Winner of WCS Global Finals is] Serral ( 47% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-31; known on 2019-11-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-11-02.
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[Winner of WCS Global Finals is] Dark ( 6% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-31; known on 2019-11-03; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2019-11-02.
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Rey is Luke's daughter. ( 59% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2015-12-29; known on 2019-12-29; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2019-11-01.
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Rey is Luke's daughter. ( 59% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2015-12-29; known on 2019-12-29; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2019-11-01.
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There will be a new iPhone in 2019 that uses a USB-C connector instead of Lightning ( 19% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jamesrom on 2019-06-11; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2019-11-01.
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The UK to leave the EU without a deal on, or by, 31 October ( 30% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-05-16; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2019-11-01.
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[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in October for which data are published ( 51% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-11-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-11-01.
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[US FOMC October rate decision to be:] leave rate unchanged ( 52% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-10-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-01.
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[US FOMC October rate decision to be:] reduce rate ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-10-31; judged right by Cato on 2019-11-01.
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[US FOMC October rate decision to be:] raise rate ( 8% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-10-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-01.
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Within three years, Open Phil makes a grant to an animal advocacy org to support consumer-side intervention(s). ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-10-31; known on 2019-10-31; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-31.
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Mauricio Macri will be re-elected president of Argentina. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Argentine_general_election ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Pablo on 2019-07-25; known on 2019-11-25; judged wrong by Pablo on 2019-10-29.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] “no-deal Brexit” to have happened ( 18% confidence; 20 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-11-05.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] “no-deal Brexit” to have happened ( 18% confidence; 20 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-11-05.
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[Macri to be re-elected president of Argentina, given USDARS] > 40 ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-10-28; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-28.
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[Politics] Cristina Fernández de Kirchner to officially run for president of Argentina in 2019 ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-10-28; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-28.
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[SC2] Reynor makes it out of Group C ( 62% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-16; known on 2019-11-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-26.
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[SC2] herO makes it out of Group C ( 52% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-16; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-26.
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[SC2] HeRoMaRinE makes it out of Group C ( 28% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-16; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-26.
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[SC2] Classic makes it out of Group C ( 58% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-16; known on 2019-11-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-26.
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[SC2] Serral makes it out of Group B ( 95% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-16; known on 2019-11-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-26.
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[SC2] Stats makes it out of Group B ( 40% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-16; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-26.
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[SC2] TIME makes it out of Group B ( 5% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-16; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-26.
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[SC2] Maru makes it out of Group B ( 60% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-16; known on 2019-11-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-26.
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[SC2] SpeCial makes it out of Group A ( 34% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-16; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-26.
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[SC2] soO makes it out of Group A ( 44% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-16; known on 2019-11-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-26.
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[SC2] ShoWTimE makes it out of Group A ( 30% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-16; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-26.
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[SC2] Dark makes it out of Group A ( 92% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-16; known on 2019-11-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-26.
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PG&E blackouts resume before the end of this week ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-10-22; known on 2019-10-26; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-10-24.
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[Politics] Conservatives to win more seats than Liberals in Canada's federal election ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-10-22; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-22.
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[Politics] Canadian federal election to be held as scheduled on October 21, 2019 ( 93% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-10-22; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-22.
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[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for September 2019 to exceed 110 ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2019-10-25; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-22.
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[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for September 2019 to exceed 110 ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2019-10-25; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-22.
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[The 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be won by ] Joseph Saelee ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by deoh on 2019-10-18; known on 2019-10-21; judged right by deoh on 2019-10-21.
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[The 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be won by ] someone who has never won a Classic Tetris World Championship before ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by deoh on 2019-10-18; known on 2019-10-21; judged wrong by deoh on 2019-10-21.
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[The 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be won by ] Greentea ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by deoh on 2019-10-18; known on 2019-10-21; judged wrong by deoh on 2019-10-20.
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[One of the top 8 at the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be] Jani ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by deoh on 2019-10-19; known on 2019-10-21; judged wrong by deoh on 2019-10-20.
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[One of the top 8 at the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be] Svavar ( 20% confidence )
Created by deoh on 2019-10-19; known on 2019-10-21; judged wrong by deoh on 2019-10-20.