Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 100% | 60% | 0% | 100% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 20 |
Displaying all predictions made by The_Offwo. Filter by:
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[Covid origin:] Definitive evidence will be found concerning an accidental lab escape by 2023 ( 28% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by The_Offwo on 2021-04-01; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2023-01-03.
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COVID, UK – national reopening will happen on 21 June but there will be significant local restrictions ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by The_Offwo on 2021-06-10; known on 2022-06-22; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-07-11.
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COVID, UK – Full reopening is done as planned (with no local restrictions) on 21 June ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by The_Offwo on 2021-06-10; known on 2022-06-22; judged wrong by andybrice on 2021-06-24.
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COVID, UK – Seven day moving average of confirmed cases exceeds 10,000 again by end of June. ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-30; known on 2021-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-06-23.
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There will NOT be any hyperinflation (>10% CBI compared to the previous year) in the USA in 2021 ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by The_Offwo on 2021-05-10; known on 2022-01-01.
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[Covid origin:] The virus is definitively found to be a bioweapon, released deliberately or accidently by 2023 (<1% chance) ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by The_Offwo on 2021-04-01; known on 2023-01-01.
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[Covid origin:] A natural origin near Wuhan is found for the virus by 2023 ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by The_Offwo on 2021-04-01; known on 2023-01-01.
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[Covid origin:] The origin of COVID will still be indeterminate on 1 Jan 2023 ( 65% confidence )
Created by The_Offwo on 2021-04-01; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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Donald Trump will be in Prison on voting day 2028 (Tuesday, Nov 7th, 2028) ( 13% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by LukeS on 2020-12-09; known on 2028-11-08; judged unknown by lazarus on 2020-12-27.
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I finish at least one edX/Coursera course (starting now) within the end of this year ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by platypus42 on 2020-11-29; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by platypus42 on 2021-01-06.
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Both GA senate races will go Republican in January ( 63% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by LukeS on 2020-11-08; known on 2021-01-15; judged wrong by LukeS on 2021-01-08.
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Politics, UK – General instruction to all pubs to close is rescinded by end of July 2020. ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-04-25; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-08-02.
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80,000 COVID-19 deaths in U.S. by July ( 80% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-04-06; known on 2020-07-31; judged right by MultiplyByZer0 on 2020-06-12.
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The Super Mario Bros. Any% record will be above 4:55:000 on 31st December 2022. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by The_Offwo on 2020-03-09; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by The_Offwo on 2021-04-20.
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[US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] Joe Biden ( 35% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-11; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-11.
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The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045. ( 25% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2015-11-24; known on 2045-01-01.
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Obama signs executive order legalizing marijuana on the last day of his presidency. ( 4% confidence; 19 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by RESO on 2015-02-05; known on 2017-01-20; judged wrong by RESO on 2017-01-20.
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Vladimir Putin will be president of Russia as of 1st January 2016 ( 91% confidence; 18 wagers )
Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by btrettel on 2016-01-01.
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Queen Elizabeth II will announce her abdication before 1st January 2016 ( 10% confidence; 18 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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No party will achieve an overall majority in the House of Commons in the May 2015 general election ( 83% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by doxievee on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-05-07; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
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Zero humans will set foot on Mars before 2100 ( 34% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by dvolk on 2014-12-17; known on 2100-01-01.
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This wager will have an average estimate of 25-75% on Jan 10th, 2015. ( 69% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by from3004 on 2014-11-26; known on 2015-01-10; judged right by adri on 2015-01-10.
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There will be less than 5000 deaths from Ebola in the UK by March ( 99% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-03-16; judged right by kuudes on 2015-03-07.
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“Global Average Temperature for 2010-2014 to exceed that for 2005-2009 by 0.1 deg C or more” —Intrade ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-16; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-31.