Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Erik and I will watch the original version of The Thing today. ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-26; known on 2011-10-27; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-27.
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Erik and I will watch the original version of The Thing today. ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-26; known on 2011-10-27; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-27.
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Launch my KA proficiency model change by the end of today (Oct. 25). ( 72% confidence )
Created by divad12 on 2011-10-25; known on 2011-10-26; judged wrong by divad12 on 2011-10-26.
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I will eat breakfast at home on Monday, and get to work before 11 am. ( 65% confidence )
Created by divad12 on 2011-10-21; known on 2011-10-24; judged wrong by divad12 on 2011-10-25.
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I will complete this week's ai-class and ml-class homework. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by divad12 on 2011-10-22; known on 2011-10-24; judged right by divad12 on 2011-10-25.
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SM replied to the pro-libertarian comment posted on his blog ( 20% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-25; known on 2011-10-25; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-25.
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I will sleep at 1 am tonight. ( 65% confidence )
Created by divad12 on 2011-10-22; known on 2011-10-23; judged wrong by divad12 on 2011-10-23.
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I will sleep at 2 am (in bed) for waking up at 9:10 am on Saturday. ( 40% confidence )
Created by divad12 on 2011-10-21; known on 2011-10-22; judged right by divad12 on 2011-10-23.
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No human fatalities will result from the ROSAT reentry. ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-19; known on 2011-11-30; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-23.
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ROSAT will reenter by November 15 ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-19; known on 2011-11-15; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-23.
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ROSAT will reenter by November 2 ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-19; known on 2011-11-03; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-23.
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I will formally quit Cross Country by the end of the week ( 80% confidence )
Created by Isaac on 2011-10-17; known on 2011-10-21; judged wrong by Isaac on 2011-10-22.
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I will go to the gym 3 times by Saturday ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Isaac on 2011-10-17; known on 2011-10-22; judged wrong by Isaac on 2011-10-22.
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Harold Camping: “the whole world…will be annihilated together with the whole physical world” ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2011-10-22; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-10-22.
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“the entire universe and planet Earth will be destroyed forever.” —Haubert/Brown ( 0% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-08; known on 2011-10-22; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-22.
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I will find a buyer for my car with a blown head gasket for >= $800 ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jach on 2011-08-18; known on 2012-01-16; judged right by Jach on 2011-10-22.
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i will use prediction book tomorrow ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by divad12 on 2011-10-21; known on 2011-10-22; judged right by divad12 on 2011-10-22.
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(Note: this bet is for monitoring instrumental rationality and akrasia) I will finish my UCC law quiz and hand it in (late) tomorrow. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbarnes1 on 2011-10-21; known on 2011-10-22; judged wrong by jbarnes1 on 2011-10-22.
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The judge will rule that Julian Assange be extradited to Sweden after hearings in July. ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-07; known on 2011-10-01; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-11-02.
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Muammar al-Gaddafi will no longer be the leader of Libya by 31 December 2011 ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-22; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2011-10-21.
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Gaddafi will not be in power in Libya beyond 2011. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by maxdemian on 2011-03-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-10-21.
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Someone will add at least 400 Austrian macroeconomic predictions to predictionbook. ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by siodine on 2011-10-20; known on 2011-10-20; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-21.
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I will complete Project Euler Problem #1 in the next 7 days. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-19; known on 2011-10-26; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-20.
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My penis will temporary stop responding to sexual stimuli in three days. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Arkanj3l on 2011-10-18; known on 2011-10-21; judged wrong by Arkanj3l on 2011-10-20.
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I will “flatline”, i.e. my penis will temporary not respond to sexual stimuli due to prolonged abstinence. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Arkanj3l on 2011-10-18; known on 2011-10-23; judged wrong by Arkanj3l on 2011-10-20.
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'Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 1 year' ( 70% confidence; 38 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-23; known on 2012-09-23; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-08.
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'Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 1 year' ( 70% confidence; 38 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-23; known on 2012-09-23; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-08.
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I will score 50% or higher on my CPSC 121 midterm ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by joke-away on 2011-10-12; known on 2011-10-19; judged right by joke-away on 2011-10-19.
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GJP: #1021 Will the expansion of the European bailout fund be ratified by all 17 Eurozone nations before 1 November 2011? ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-11-02; judged right by gwern on 2011-10-18.
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I will go to the gym tomorrow ( 93% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Isaac on 2011-10-17; known on 2011-10-18; judged wrong by Isaac on 2011-10-18.
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I will go to the gym in the next 30 minutes ( 80% confidence )
Created by Isaac on 2011-10-17; known on 2011-10-17; judged wrong by Isaac on 2011-10-18.
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GJP: #1021 Will the expansion of the European bailout fund be ratified by all 17 Eurozone nations before 1 November 2011? ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-11-02; judged right by gwern on 2011-10-18.
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I will record a sub 20 minute time in the first ABC bi that I do http://goo.gl/BCmJt ( 15% confidence )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-10-10; known on 2011-10-14; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-10-17.
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My next full practice SAT score will be over 2050 ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Isaac on 2011-10-01; known on 2011-10-15; judged wrong by Isaac on 2011-10-17.
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The Texas Rangers will win the ALCS ( 90% confidence )
Created by Codyz on 2011-10-13; known on 2011-10-20; judged right by Codyz on 2011-10-16.
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D will visit me today ( 50% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-16; known on 2011-10-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-16.
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D will call me back today ( 70% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-16; known on 2011-10-16; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-16.
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We will not be finished eating by 8:15 PM. ( 80% confidence )
Created by chris_carr@predictionbook.ccarr.com on 2011-10-14; known on 2011-10-15; judged wrong by chris_carr@predictionbook.ccarr.com on 2011-10-15.
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My Modalert will arrive day after tomorrow. ( 33% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-12; known on 2011-10-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-14.
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'I predict…a major earthquake, magnitude seven or more will happen within twenty kilometers of a line from nagano city, nagano to matsudo, chiba' ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2011-10-13; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-13.
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My Modalert will arrive tomorrow. ( 33% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-12; known on 2011-10-14; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-13.
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My Modalert will arrive today. ( 25% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-12; known on 2011-10-13; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-13.
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I will feel sick again when I donate blood today. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-12; known on 2011-10-13; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-13.
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Maria and Mikael Jungner will initiate divorce before October 1st, 2011. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by mikko2 on 2010-10-01; known on 2011-10-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-12.
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Tristan's teacher will report that Tristan is unhappy today. He may or may not talk about having to move. ( 65% confidence )
Created by chris_carr@predictionbook.ccarr.com on 2011-10-11; known on 2011-10-12; judged wrong by chris_carr@predictionbook.ccarr.com on 2011-10-12.
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GJP: #1023 Will former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko be found guilty on any charges in a Ukrainian court before 1 November 2011? ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-11-02; judged right by gwern on 2011-10-12.
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The Prediction Book Wikipedia page will be tagged for deletion or deleted within 2 weeks. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-11; known on 2011-10-26; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-12.
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The PredictionBook Wikipedia article will be deleted within 1 year. ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-11; known on 2012-10-11; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-12.
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The PredictionBook Wikipedia article will be deleted within 2 years. ( 91% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-11; known on 2013-10-11; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-12.
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The Prediction Book Wikipedia page will be deleted within a month. ( 60% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-11; known on 2011-11-11; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-10-12.