Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 46% | 80% | 92% | 95% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 13 | 15 | 12 | 21 | 5 | 66 |
Displaying all predictions made by kilobug. Filter by:
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By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. — Alyssa Vance ( 41% confidence; 14 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-11-24; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-01-08.
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A mundane, accepted explanation for the apparent imaginary mass of neutrinos will be found by 2020 that does not involve the neutrinos actually having imaginary mass (e.g. some form of systematic error). ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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Consensus will be that electron neutrinos have imaginary mass 2025. ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-27; known on 2025-01-16.
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Zero humans will have been in orbit around another planet by 2050 ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by dvolk on 2014-12-17; known on 2050-01-01.
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Zero humans will set foot on Mars before 2100 ( 34% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by dvolk on 2014-12-17; known on 2100-01-01.
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Eliezer will state that he has finished writing HPMOR by the end of 2014. ( 33% confidence; 19 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Calien on 2014-08-19; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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Princeton researchers: Facebook will lose 80% of its users by end of 2017 ( 15% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2014-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Mati on 2017-12-31.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky will remain visibly overweight at the end of 2014. ( 71% confidence; 20 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-21; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by waveman on 2015-01-02.
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A nuclear disaster equal to or worse than Fukushima will happen this year. ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers )
Created by hedges on 2013-04-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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Torment: Tides of Numenera kickstarter will reach the 3.5 millions stretch goal ( 40% confidence )
Created by kilobug on 2013-03-22; known on 2013-04-07; judged right by muflax on 2013-04-04.
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Torment: Tides of Numenera kickstarter will reach the 3.25 millions stretch goal ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by kilobug on 2013-03-22; known on 2013-04-07; judged right by muflax on 2013-04-03.
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Torment: Tides of Numenera kickstarter will reach 3 millions ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kilobug on 2013-03-22; known on 2013-04-07; judged right by alecbrooks on 2013-03-30.
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Cyprus will leave the Euro in 2013 ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by phreeza on 2013-03-21; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by hedges on 2013-12-31.
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By 2022, some roads will be self-driving-only. —Alyssa Vance ( 51% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-11-24; known on 2023-01-01.
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Mars rover SAM instrument discovers live microorganisms in Martian soil. ( 11% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-20; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Samm on 2013-04-26.
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There'll be a popular Android tablet sold for less than $50 (as standard pricing) before 2015 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-12; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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Obama's approval rating will exceed 55% on average for the next 12 months (Nov 12 -> Nov 13) ( 46% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-12; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-16.
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Marijuana legalization will be a significant issue in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. ( 33% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-30; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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The death toll from hurricane Sandy will be lower than that from Katrina. ( 88% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Matt on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-11-29; judged right by Matt on 2012-11-29.
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D-Wave will be commercially selling a >=2048-qubit quantum annealing chip by 2018 ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-06; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-01-01.
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D-Wave will be commercially selling a >=2048-qubit quantum annealing chip by 2016 ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-06; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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D-Wave will be commercially selling a >=1024-qubit quantum annealing chip by 2020 ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-10.
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D-Wave will be commercially selling a >=1024-qubit quantum annealing chip by 2015 ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-06; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.
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They'll clone a Neanderthal (or other species of primitive human) by 2040 ( 24% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-06; known on 2050-12-31.
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There will be superintelligence by 2033. — Nick Bostrom ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-06; known on 2034-01-01.
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They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040 ( 55% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-05; known on 2040-12-31.
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If your head is cryogenically frozen, you will be alive in 2100. — Robin Hanson ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2101-01-01.
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Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. — Robin Hanson ( 27% confidence; 14 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 9999-01-01.
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By 2100, world economic growth rates will have increased by over a factor of a hundred. — Robin Hanson ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2101-01-01.
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Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican. ( 51% confidence; 18 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-27; known on 2116-11-05.
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In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ( 9% confidence; 16 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-18; known on 2022-09-19; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-09-25.
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A Libertarian Party candidate will receive more of the popular vote in the 2016 presidential election than the Republican candidate. ( 6% confidence; 23 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-02; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Hillary Clinton will run for president in 2016. ( 38% confidence; 25 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2016-02-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-27.
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There'll be a major virus/spyware story in the next 10 years that's primarily focused on theft of commercial information (financial, passwords, blackmail) ( 78% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-14; known on 2022-12-31; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-21.
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Current Syrian regime to fall by January 1, 2013 ( 35% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2013-01-01.
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Assuming Assange stays there, British enforcement agents will not enter Ecuador embassy without Ecuadoran consent before end of 2013 ( 66% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-16; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-31.
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The world will not end before 2050 ( 89% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Lyaer on 2012-08-18; known on 2050-01-02.
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An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years. ( 8% confidence; 17 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-14; known on 2032-11-10.
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How/“why” (if applicable) our universe was created will be discovered through science. The answer will not be magical, but fundamentally understandable in nature. ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by asdadfa on 2012-08-12; known on 2100-01-01.
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By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone. ( 53% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-04; known on 2022-08-04; judged right by atzeje on 2022-05-23.
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HPMoR: Quirrell killed the original Voldemort and took his position. ( 4% confidence; 19 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-07-31; known on 2014-07-31; judged wrong by player_03 on 2015-03-16.
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Greece out of Eurozone ( 50% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by yahood on 2012-07-27; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.
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No new federal gun laws will be passed in 2012 as a result of the Colorado shooting ( 75% confidence; 7 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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Pope Benedict XVI will be dead before November, 2012. ( 9% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-08; known on 2012-11-01; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-10-31.
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HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2013. ( 12% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2014. ( 52% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2015. ( 58% confidence; 28 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will update within the next three months. ( 61% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by ceterisparibus on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-02-12; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-13.
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GJP: #1084 Who will win Venezuela’s 2012 presidential election? Hugo Chavez ( 76% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2012-10-20; judged right by scav on 2012-10-11.
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No 3rd party candidate gains 5% of the popular vote for president. (90%) —knb ( 82% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2012-11-04; judged right by gwern on 2012-11-04.
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USD worth over 3 EUR ( 18% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kish on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-12-21; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-21.
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Tea Party splits between Republican & Libertarian party ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-07.
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Germany will not leave Euro by end of 2012 ( 92% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by procran on 2011-11-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2013-01-01.
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The war in Israel-Plestine will end ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by cheick on 2011-11-18; known on 2011-11-18; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-21.
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Chavez will not be re-elected president of Venezuela on October 07, 2012. ( 33% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by alexguerrero on 2011-11-17; known on 2012-10-07; judged wrong by Pablo on 2012-10-08.
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World will not end on 12-21-2012. ( 91% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2012-12-21; judged right by Qiaochu on 2012-12-21.
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President Obama will win the Presidential election in 2012. ( 70% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2012-11-11; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025. ( 8% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-11-17.
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HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it. ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-11-30.
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The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045 ( 56% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-17; known on 2046-01-01.
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The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035 ( 51% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-17; known on 2036-01-01.
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A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment. ( 4% confidence; 20 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2026-11-30.
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The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025 ( 30% confidence; 15 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-17; known on 2026-01-01.
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By 2046 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125 ( 62% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-16; known on 2045-01-01.
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The Singularity will occur by 2050. ( 34% confidence; 27 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by michaelanissimov on 2011-11-15; known on 2050-01-01.
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The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025. ( 72% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.
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The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025. ( 30% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.
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The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025. ( 9% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.
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By 2025, more motor vehicle engines will be manufactured using “3D printing” technology than by any conventional manufacturing process. ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2025-01-01.
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Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ( 8% confidence; 31 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2035-01-01.
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German Pirate Party to enter Bundestag in next election. ( 65% confidence; 9 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-11-11; known on 2013-10-27; judged wrong by mfb on 2013-09-22.
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lukeprog will receive <50 individual items of feedback through his form in the next month. ( 66% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-05; known on 2011-12-05; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-05.
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Either Mitt Romney or Barack Obama will win the 2012 Presidential election. ( 91% confidence; 29 wagers )
Created by HonoreDB on 2011-11-04; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.
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Occupy Wall Street (NYC) will continue at least 30 more days. ( 79% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by torekp on 2011-10-23; known on 2011-11-23; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-23.
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The world will exist on 2012-12-22 (day after the widely hyped end) ( 99% confidence; 43 wagers; 21 comments )
Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-22; judged right by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
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Third-party candidates will take at least 15% of the popular votes in the 2012 US presidential election. ( 26% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2011-10-09; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 3 months. ( 46% confidence; 46 wagers; 39 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-22.
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Nicolas Sarkozy to be elected President of France in 2012 —Intrade ( 45% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2012-05-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-05-06.
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The Richard Dawkins article on Conservapedia will in one year have in its stable form a picture of at least one of Hitler, Stalin, or Lenin ( 81% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2012-09-04; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-09-04.
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“USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before midnight ET 30 Sep 2012” —Intrade ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-10-01; judged wrong by Pablo on 2012-10-01.
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Michele Bachmann will be revealed as a drug addict before Election Day ( 9% confidence; 10 wagers; 73 comments )
Created by Jach on 2011-07-20; known on 2012-11-06; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-06.
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P=NP, and proven by 12 December 2012 —Dick Lipton ( 0% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2012-12-12; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-12.
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'We are 100% certain that governments will start banning bitcoins in the next 12 to 18 months.' —Jason Calacanis ( 34% confidence; 18 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-16; known on 2012-11-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-15.
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The world will not end on December 2012. ( 99% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by puya on 2011-03-18; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 1% confidence; 26 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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A state will try & succeed in seceding from the US. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2020-01-01.
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The world will not end in 2012 ( 99% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kimmjaynedowling on 2010-02-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.” ( 35% confidence; 23 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2035-01-01.
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“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.” ( 41% confidence; 28 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.
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The world will not end December 25, 2012. ( 98% confidence; 28 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Houshalter on 2010-06-13; known on 2012-12-26; judged right by Qiaochu on 2012-12-26.
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Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100. ( 21% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Rain on 2009-11-11; known on 2100-01-01.
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A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040. ( 68% confidence; 46 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by rwallace on 2009-10-14; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by freyley on 2009-10-21.