Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 25% | 67% | 100% | 83% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 25 |
Displaying all predictions made by TeMPOraL. Filter by:
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Kim Jong-un is reported dead within 100 calendar days. ( 3% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by asd on 2014-09-28; known on 2015-01-06; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-06.
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Ebola outbreak kills more than 30000 people by the end of the year ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by phreeza on 2014-09-15; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.
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“The [ebola] case burden could gain an additional 77,181 to 277,124 cases by the end of 2014.” – Wired ( 33% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by adbge on 2014-09-15; known on 2015-02-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-12.
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Islamic terrorist attack in the UK kills at least one this month. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-08-29; known on 2014-09-29; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-29.
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Self-driving cars will replace human drivers on public road in at least one country before 2024. ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by TeMPOraL on 2014-08-24; known on 2023-12-31.
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Eliezer will state that he has finished writing HPMOR by the end of 2014. ( 33% confidence; 19 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Calien on 2014-08-19; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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I will hand in every assignment between now and the mid semester break on time. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Calien on 2014-08-19; known on 2014-09-05; judged right by Calien on 2014-09-05.
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The situation on Ukraine will turn into international conflict before end of 2014 and battles will be fought on Polish territory. ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by TeMPOraL on 2014-08-14; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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Ebola virus will be controlled in 6 months ( 52% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-15; known on 2015-02-15; judged right by kuudes on 2015-02-19.
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This site has <b>obvious</b> <script type=“text/javascript”>alert(“XSS”);</script> ;). ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by TeMPOraL on 2014-08-14; known on 2014-08-14; judged wrong by TeMPOraL on 2014-08-14.
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There will be significant improvements to the UX of this site related to ability to browse predictions and not get confused by what means what, and what's AJAX or not. ( 30% confidence )
Created by TeMPOraL on 2014-08-14; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by TeMPOraL on 2015-07-07.
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The Rosetta Probe's Philae lander will touch down successfully (at least 9 of its 10 scientific instruments working) on comet 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko by the end of November. ( 85% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by tdhellma on 2014-08-14; known on 2014-11-30; judged right by kuudes on 2014-11-30.
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Ebola doesn't cause more than 2500 deaths by the end of the year ( 39% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by minilodon on 2014-08-14; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by TeMPOraL on 2014-09-23.
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First virtual tourism in 7 years. ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-13; known on 2021-08-13; judged right by stepan on 2021-09-12.
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Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project. ( 1% confidence; 27 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-08-12; known on 2024-08-12.
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I will not become paraplegic or otherwise significantly paralyzed within the next year. ( 98% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-03; known on 2015-08-03; judged right by Ham Nox on 2015-08-03.
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I'll find this site useful and keep using even one month later. ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2014-09-02; judged right by spacemammoth on 2014-09-03.
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Ebola will be tamed in 3 months ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2014-11-02; judged wrong by mad on 2014-11-02.
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Edward Snowden to be awarded the 2014 Nobel Peace Prize ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-19; known on 2014-10-10; judged wrong by clemux on 2014-10-11.
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Vladimir Putin to be awarded the 2014 Nobel Peace Prize ( 1% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-19; known on 2014-10-10; judged wrong by qznc on 2014-10-10.
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Gwern will teach/contribute/ta a mooc within 2 years ( 30% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by paulharris on 2012-09-22; known on 2014-09-22; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky's book on rationality will be published within 3 years. ( 46% confidence; 25 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2014-10-04; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-10-04.