Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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I will have made 10 predictions relating to events in my own life by September 1st, 2014. ( 65% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-03-23; known on 2014-09-01; judged right by aarongertler on 2014-09-01.
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I will not live at home next year. ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-23; known on 2014-09-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-09-01.
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Friend ___ moves out of his apartment by the end of August ( 35% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-05; known on 2014-08-31; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-08-31.
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I will come to Moscow LW Meetup on 2014-08-31. ( 50% confidence )
Created by rationalnoodles on 2014-08-29; known on 2014-08-31; judged right by rationalnoodles on 2014-08-31.
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Tammy Pham will not regret taking the summer position in New York rather than San Francisco. ( 80% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-04-04; known on 2014-08-31; judged right by aarongertler on 2014-08-31.
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Manchester United will sign 2 players before September 2nd. ( 50% confidence )
Created by dgray on 2014-08-11; known on 2014-09-02; judged wrong by dgray on 2014-08-31.
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SH will run a blinded randomized self-experiment of Methylene Blue within a year. ( 35% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-08-25; known on 2014-08-25; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-08-29.
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Cécile Kyenge will resign before the regular end of her mandate ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2013-07-29; known on 2017-03-01; judged right by dhoe on 2014-08-28.
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Barack Obama will do the Ice Bucket Challenge this year. ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-08-15; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Mati on 2014-08-27.
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I will still use an Android-based mobile by 2015. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-07; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-08-27.
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Manchester United will sign exactly1 player before September 2nd. ( 15% confidence )
Created by dgray on 2014-08-11; known on 2014-09-02; judged wrong by dgray on 2014-08-27.
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Within 2 years, the global usage share of IE (all versions), will be below 20%, as measured by statcounter.com ( 42% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2012-08-25; known on 2014-08-26; judged wrong by Grognor on 2014-08-26.
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Assange leaves the embassy within a week ( 10% confidence )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-08-18; known on 2014-08-25; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-08-25.
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I will get 5+ alumni messages by the end of this week (currently have 4) ( 40% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-23; known on 2014-08-24; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-08-24.
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August 2014 hard drive prices: 74-84 GB/$ ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-23; known on 2014-08-22; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-08-23.
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What color underwear random person is wearing. 95% white, black, pink, nude/brown, red, green, blue/navy, purple, orange, multicolor. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-23; known on 2014-08-23; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-08-23.
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I will get offered both the Macy's and Autism aide position ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-06; known on 2014-08-20; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-08-23.
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Out of 10 asked at the reunion, 0-9 people know my name without prompting. (mistyped) ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-23; known on 2014-08-24; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-08-23.
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Out of 10 asked at the reunion, 2-3 people knowing my name without prompting. ( 10% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-23; known on 2014-08-23; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-08-23.
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I will have 2000 Anki cards within 6 months in my collections (it's only 12 a day) ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-20; known on 2014-07-19; judged wrong by atroche on 2014-08-23.
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My wife's debit card is in the bedroom ( 85% confidence )
Created by Ixiel on 2014-08-13; known on 2014-08-20; judged right by Ixiel on 2014-08-22.
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I will pass the computational neuroscience program on Coursera ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-12-27; known on 2014-03-07; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2014-08-22.
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Nawaz Sharif is widely believed to still be in PM house. ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-08-18; known on 2014-08-21; judged right by rebellionkid on 2014-08-21.
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Given that Brienne was free of social anxiety on May 20 2014, she will be free of social anxiety on August 20 2014 as well. ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by briennestrohl on 2014-04-20; known on 2014-08-21; judged right by briennestrohl on 2014-08-21.
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For my 2012 PB predictions, my actual accuracy will be at least 10% higher than the average certainty assigned to those predictions by other users. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Grognor on 2014-08-21.
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I'll find out the truth about Soka-Gakkai International in 7 days. ( 1% confidence )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-13; known on 2014-08-20; judged wrong by spacemammoth on 2014-08-20.
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Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-13; known on 2014-08-20; judged wrong by spacemammoth on 2014-08-20.
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Sheep Marketplace will cease operating within a year. ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-17; known on 2014-10-17; judged right by Grognor on 2014-08-20.
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Some group in Pakistan has already developed a super-intelligence (as of 2009). ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mjgeddes on 2009-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged wrong by Grognor on 2014-08-20.
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Brienne will be free of social anxiety in 4 months of this posting. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by briennestrohl on 2014-04-20; known on 2014-08-20; judged right by briennestrohl on 2014-08-20.
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Manchester United will not sign any players before September 2nd. ( 10% confidence )
Created by dgray on 2014-08-11; known on 2014-09-02; judged wrong by dgray on 2014-08-19.
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SimplementCaro will not annoy me in the next hour. ( 94% confidence )
Created by Mati on 2014-08-19; known on 2014-08-20; judged right by Mati on 2014-08-19.
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I'll finish Computer graphics course (20 hours course) in 3 days. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-15; known on 2014-08-18; judged wrong by spacemammoth on 2014-08-18.
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“Her insan doğar, yaşar, ve ölür.” is meaningful and true. ( 98% confidence )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-08-18; known on 2014-08-18; judged right by rebellionkid on 2014-08-18.
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I'm going to have my hair cut short in 2 weeks. ( 30% confidence )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-03; known on 2014-08-17; judged wrong by spacemammoth on 2014-08-17.
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After using PredictionBook, I'm fucking doing sucks at work. Why is that? Someone will answer me in 7 days. ( 30% confidence )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-09; known on 2014-08-16; judged wrong by spacemammoth on 2014-08-17.
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PredictionBook is distracting. That's why! Someone will agree with me in 7 days. ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-09; known on 2014-08-16; judged wrong by spacemammoth on 2014-08-17.
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[Pact web serial] Blake will leave the Drains. ( 95% confidence )
Created by sigmaleph on 2014-07-31; known on 2015-07-02; judged right by sigmaleph on 2014-08-15.
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I will still have making a prediction a day as one of my dailies through the middle of August. ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by bibliophile221B on 2014-04-26; known on 2014-08-15; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-08-15.
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This site has <b>obvious</b> <script type=“text/javascript”>alert(“XSS”);</script> ;). ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by TeMPOraL on 2014-08-14; known on 2014-08-14; judged wrong by TeMPOraL on 2014-08-14.
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I'm in bad mood. It'll be better in 2 days. ( 70% confidence )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-09; known on 2014-08-11; judged right by spacemammoth on 2014-08-13.
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I have back pain. It'll be gone in 1 day. ( 25% confidence )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-10; known on 2014-08-11; judged wrong by spacemammoth on 2014-08-13.
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Sara will feel “normal” from Sept 1 to Sept 7 ( 85% confidence )
Created by Silver on 2014-07-14; known on 2014-09-08; judged right by Silver on 2014-08-12.
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Bids on NASDAQ:PCLN will reach at least $1250 on day after Q2 earnings release. ( 60% confidence )
Created by mortehu on 2014-06-19; known on 2014-08-05; judged right by mortehu on 2014-08-11.
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I have shoulder pain. It'll be gone in 1 day. ( 50% confidence )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-09; known on 2014-08-10; judged right by spacemammoth on 2014-08-10.
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I'll not be listening to Nico and vine's song “Am I wrong” next week ( 90% confidence )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-03; known on 2014-08-10; judged right by spacemammoth on 2014-08-10.
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I'll be watching TV dramas everyday even after 1 week ( 30% confidence )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-03; known on 2014-08-10; judged wrong by spacemammoth on 2014-08-10.
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I'll not be reading news site like Yahoo for 1 week ( 40% confidence )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-03; known on 2014-08-10; judged wrong by spacemammoth on 2014-08-10.
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I'll discover something useful in this site within one week. ( 25% confidence )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2014-08-09; judged wrong by spacemammoth on 2014-08-09.
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I'll still be alive at the end of 2014 ( 97% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Osuniev on 2014-08-03; known on 2015-01-16; judged right by woodse on 2015-01-16.