Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 46% | 59% | 67% | 73% | 88% | 98% | |
Sample Size | 69 | 86 | 89 | 90 | 183 | 80 | 597 |
Displaying all predictions made by Anubhav. Filter by:
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50% chance of AI by 2028 —Shane Legg ( 23% confidence; 29 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2028-01-01.
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I will have taken over at least one country by 2035. ( 0% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-13; known on 2035-01-01.
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NGE: Shinji will masturbate to Asuka at some point during Rebuild ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2020-01-03; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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HP MoR: Gilderoy Lockhart will be (conditional on appearance) competent and not conceited ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01.
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HP MoR: Gilderoy Lockhart will be (conditional on appearance) competent and conceited ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-17.
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NGE: 4.0 will be titled “You Can (Not) Stay Here” ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: The Key of Nebuchadnezzar will be implanted into Gendo, in his hand ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Kaji will kill Misato ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Kaji's killer (if any) will be shown clearly, on-screen, and not off-screen ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Gendo's ultimate goal in 4.0 will not be to reunite with Yui, but to turn her into a god-like entity ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: In 4.0, there will be an epilogue set years later ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE: A version of the song “Komm, süsser Tod” will be used in Rebuild ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-20; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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HJPEV has access to Voldemort's Horcrux network, due to being sufficiently Tom Riddle. ( 56% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by linkhyrule5 on 2015-02-21; known on 2015-03-07; judged wrong by tedks on 2015-03-03.
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HPMoR: In the final arc (Chapter 104 – conclusion) It will be revealed that HPJEV was under some magical influence that prevented him from perceiving the link between Voldemort and Quirrel. ( 34% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Faceh on 2015-02-16; known on 2015-03-14; judged wrong by Unknowns on 2015-03-14.
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HP MoR: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains an ordinary rock ( 40% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-16.
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HP MoR: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains James Potter ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: All Voldemort's horcruxes except the Pioneer probe will be destroyed, and Voldemort is doomed to wander the cosmos forever ( 34% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-09-14.
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HP MoR: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains a real Philosopher's Stone ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Quirrel plans to manipulate Harry (already a Horcrux) into making a Harry-Horcrux of Quirrel so neither can ever die ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MOR: EY already planned to incorporate the Peverell tombstone quote before Raemon asked him. ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by HonoreDB on 2016-02-13.
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HP MoR: Harry is Voldemort ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by ahartell on 2012-01-02; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Bacon's diary will turn out to be just a diary. ( 56% confidence; 19 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-02-01; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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HP MoR: Harry will create a superintelligent AI using magic or magical objects ( 9% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Quirrel is a Horcrux, as well as anything else ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Quirrel is the original Quirrel possessed by Voldemort (a la Philosopher's Stone) ( 55% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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HP MoR: Quirrel is the fused personality of Voldemort + original Quirrel ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Quirrel is Voldemort in some sense ( 89% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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HP MoR: the original Quirrel killed his parents ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Quirrel believes that Harry's stone is the Resurrection Stone ( 28% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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HP MoR: Quirrel will have Hermione killed with Harry as a witness ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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HP MoR: Quirrel will die fighting Voldemort ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry will become an Animagus who turns into a human ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry will become an Animagus who turns into a phoenix ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry will steal the Philosopher's Stone at some point ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by wizzwizz4 on 2019-09-03.
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HP MoR: Harry will create a superintelligent AI using magic or magical objects, and it won't be Friendly, killing many/all ( 12% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Quirrel is Harry from the future ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry will invent some form of 'metamagic' (eg. a self-replicating spell or magical construct/artifact) ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry's disturbed sleep is a clue to some unrevealed secret (and not just a Time-turner excuse) ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-27.
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HP MoR: Harry is a horcrux ( 75% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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HP MoR: Dumbledore, Quirrel, Voldemort, Santa Claus, and Mr. Hat and Cloak are all the same person. ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: A ritual will restore Voldemort to a body and Bellatrix Black will be used in it ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: A ritual will restore Voldemort to a body ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: The Prophecy actually referred to Neville Longbottom and not Harry ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Voldemort deliberately & voluntarily retired from being Dark Lord, after doing something else involving Harry ( 46% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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HP MoR: Lucius Malfoy was, at least initially, Imperiused into becoming a Death Eater ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Lily Potter did not give Petunia a magic potion, but actually Imperius'ed her. ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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HP MoR: The original Quirrel was Voldemort's master or teacher ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Dementors either copy minds or store souls for later resurrection ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Bacon's diary is a Horcrux made by Quirrel when he killed Rita Skeeter ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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HP MoR: Dumbledore possesses the Elder Wand as of chapter 83 ( 85% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: Quirrel possesses the Elder Wand as of chapter 83 ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: the Elder Wand is already in the possession of a character ( 89% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: A Deathly Hallow besides the Cloak will appear in the possession of a character in the present-day at some point ( 92% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: Severus Snape will go back to the dark side, such as working for Voldemort ( 38% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-13.
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HP MoR: Azkaban Island is the last remnant of Atlantis ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: the Philosopher's Stone will be mass-manufactured by Harry or at his behest ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: There are >7 Voldemort Horcruxes ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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HP MoR: 5 Voldemort Horcruxes are where Harry suggested putting hidden things in ch46 ( 61% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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HP MoR: someone will be mentioned or shown using the Imperius curse on themselves (or consenting to another's use on them) to supplement their willpower (dieting, working hard, etc.) ( 32% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Humans can be permanently turned into house-elves ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2016-02-02.
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HP MoR: story completed during Harry's fourth year or later of Hogwarts ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: story completed during Harry's third year of Hogwarts ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: story completed during Harry's second year of Hogwarts ( 13% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: story completed during Harry's first year of Hogwarts ( 73% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Quirrel's zombie-mode is about spending time at the Pioneer probe perspective ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2016-01-07.
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HP MoR: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains a real Resurrection Stone ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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HP MoR: Quirrel is a younger version of Voldemort, a damaged backup from many years before (like the diary Riddle) ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Harry/Hermione will be the only romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry/Luna will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Draco/Luna will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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Neville/Luna will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.
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Neville/Ginny will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.
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HP MoR: Harry/Ginny will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry/Tracey will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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Draco/Tracey will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.
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HP MoR: Harry/Draco will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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Ron will not be involved in any romantic relationship in the Methods of Rationality. ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by from3004 on 2015-07-31.
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HP MoR: There will be at least one onscreen polyamorous relationship in the Methods of Rationality. ( 30% confidence; 15 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Methods of Rationality will have an arc/chapter involving Harry getting a harem. ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-20; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by NancyLebovitz on 2015-01-01.
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“better than 50/50 chance Kepler-186f has technological life” —Hontas Farmer ( 0% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-04-21; known on 2019-04-21; judged wrong by gwern on 2019-04-22.
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HP MoR: Quirrel is a/the Basilisk. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-21; known on 2015-01-23; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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HP MoR: Voldemort never intended Harry's own death on the night of his parents' death. ( 50% confidence; 21 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2011-09-04; known on 2015-11-02; judged right by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Sirius Black ( 12% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2011-09-04; known on 2015-11-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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Social Experiment: By 01-01-2012, the average estimate on this prediction will be greater than or equal to 50%. ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2011-11-15; known on 9999-01-02.
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Social Experiment: By 01-01-2012, the median estimate on this prediction will be 50%. ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by RobertLumley on 2011-11-15; known on 9999-01-02.
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Social Experiment: By 01-01-2012, the average estimate on this prediction will be 100%. ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2011-11-15; known on 9999-01-02.
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Social Experiment: By 01-01-2012, the average estimate on this prediction will be greater than or equal to 75%. ( 77% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by RobertLumley on 2011-11-15; known on 9999-01-02.
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Social Experiment: By 01-01-2012, the average estimate on this prediction will be greater than 50%. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RobertLumley on 2011-11-15; known on 9999-01-02.
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Both Congressman Duncan and Senator Corker will individually respond to my e-mail protesting SOPA/PIPA like their office said they would. ( 9% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2012-01-18; known on 2999-02-19; judged unknown by RobertLumley on 2012-04-06.
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HPMoR : ch 120 (or sooner): After understanding the death's place in evolution of life and mind, Harry would refuse become a Creator of the Words. ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by mat33 on 2012-04-01; known on 2015-07-01; judged wrong by David on 2015-06-23.
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HP MoR: The Hat and Cloak that interacted with Hermione is Professor McGonagall. ( 4% confidence; 20 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by cafesofie on 2012-03-25; known on 2016-04-17; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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SpaceX sends a passenger flight to Mars by 2023. ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-22; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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Indian Supreme Court rules in favour of Novartis. ( 34% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-17; known on 2013-03-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-04-01.
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Ozzy Osbourne and Margaret Thatcher will both die on the same day. ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by YourFriend on 2011-11-26; known on 2014-12-27; judged wrong by TheEIT on 2013-05-12.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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(All) Wikipedias' total editor base will be >=95,000 in June 2012. ( 30% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2012-08-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-04.
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Esmat will fail at least 4 papers in his finals. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-04; known on 2012-06-10.
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HP MoR: Gilderoy Lockhart will be mentioned by name but not appear ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Dumbledore did not kill Narcissa, but claimed he did. ( 54% confidence; 11 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-21; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: 'I bet Quirrel will die fighting Voldemort to protect Harry before chapter 100' —shminux ( 3% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.