Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Hillary Clinton will run for president and be nominated by the Democrats and win the election in 2016. ( 38% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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359 – 179 Clinton Trump Electoral Result ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-10-22; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Jeb Bush will not be elected President of the United States. ( 75% confidence; 21 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by James Babcock on 2015-06-24; known on 2016-11-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Hillary Clinton will not become the next president of the USA ( 70% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by truerepublican on 2014-10-18; known on 2016-11-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Hilary Clinton as next US President ( 55% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by LawrenceNewport on 2016-06-07; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Michael Bloomberg wins the 2016 presidential election. ( 1% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-21; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Hillary Clinton will be elected president. ( 61% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by taylorcp on 2016-01-02; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Hillary Clinton wins election. ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by matuschoma on 2016-07-30; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Blunt (R-MO) will win re-election to the US Senate ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by predictit on 2016-08-02; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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The Democrats will win the Nevada senate race ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-08-05; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Katie McGinty will be elected to the Senate ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-07-20; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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The next president elect will be a member of the democratic party. ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-09; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Burr (R-NC) will be re-elected to the senate ( 55% confidence )
Created by predictit on 2016-08-11; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Hillary Clinton wins all 112 electoral votes of the Northeast (New England, NY, NJ, DE, PA, MD, DC). ( 42% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2016-09-08; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Scott Adams – I predict Trump gets at least 65% of the votes in the general election. ( 4% confidence; 20 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by halfwit on 2015-11-03; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Hillary Clinton will be the next president elect. ( 62% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-26; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Gary Johnson will poll above 15% in five national polls. ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-24; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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The Democratic Party wins NC in the 2016 presidential election ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-08-03; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Republicans win between 218 and 230 house seats in 2016 ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-08-02; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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hilary clinton will not be elected ( 41% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by marcDouglas on 2015-06-25; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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hillary clinton wins the US presidential race ( 69% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jal278 on 2016-08-23; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Democrats win the IN senate seat ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-11-10.
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The GOP will keep the senate in 2017 ( 52% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by predictit on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Undivided government under the Republicans after 2016 ( 13% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Democrats will win 370+ electoral votes in the 2016 presidential election. ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-07-13; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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The GOP will win under 370 electoral votes in the 2016 presidential election ( 93% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-13; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Hillary Clinton will win the United States' Presidential race ( 67% confidence; 15 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by BigRaims on 2016-08-16; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Hillary wins South Carolina ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-08-11; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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The Republicans win the 2016 Florida senate race ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-08-10; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Hillary Clinton will win the presidential election ( 71% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by ytarko on 2016-09-01; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by bendini on 2016-11-09.
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The winner of the 2016 presidential election will recieve over 400 EVs ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-08-10; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Hillary Clinton will win the U.S. general election on November 8, 2016. ( 82% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ren on 2016-03-24; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Michael Bloomberg will be the next President-elect ( 2% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-24; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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No 2016 Presidential candidate receives a majority of Electoral votes ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-30; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Ben Carson will be the next President-elect ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-28; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Hillary Clinton wins the presidential election 2016 ( 64% confidence; 26 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2016-07-04; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Hillary Clinton will win Utah ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-08-10; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-11-09.
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Hillary Clinton wins Georgia ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-08-10; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-11-09.
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Democrats win undivided control of government in 2016 ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-11-09.
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Hillary Clinton will get at least 332 Electoral College votes in the 2016 Presidential Election. ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by quanticle on 2016-10-22; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by quanticle on 2016-11-09.
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US goes to Defcon 1, by 13:00 EST nov 8, 2016 ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-07; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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In the US, a federal government shut-down will occur before the next presidential election. ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-11-05; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
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Fiction,Webcomics, Erfworld – Caesar agrees to at least not interfere in an attempt to turn Parson, within pages 208 or 209. ( 40% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2016-10-29; known on 2016-11-05; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2016-11-08.
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Fiction, Web Serial, Twig – Mauer is told about the Falconer's origin during 14.18 or 14.19 ( 20% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2016-10-29; known on 2016-11-06; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2016-11-08.
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UK Government agrees to take in more migrant children than previously planned before start of 2016-11-06. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2016-10-29; known on 2016-11-06; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2016-11-08.
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Fiction, Webcomics, Strong Female Protagonist – Feral expresses anger towards Alison within pages 94 or 95. ( 10% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2016-10-29; known on 2016-11-05; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2016-11-08.
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A third party candidate will not participate in a presidential debate ( 79% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-07-13; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-08.
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Gary Johnson will poll above 15% and be included in the 2016 presidential debates. ( 15% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-06-03; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-08.
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Donald Trump will shave his head any time before the general election (no GOP nomination needed) ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-01; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-11-08.
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Kim Dotcom will release (either directly or through WikiLeaks or another party) at least 3,000 new and legitimate Hillary Clinton emails, before election day ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-26; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-08.