Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
-
human beings engaged against first bipedal robots in real battle ( 13% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
-
Within five years (2017), motion-controlled augmented reality headsets will be widespread in the consumer market, selling millions of units and beginning to overtake multitouch screens as the primary mode of mobile computer interaction. ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Aticper on 2012-10-24; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
-
Legislation introduced in the US to regulate Augmented Reality. ( 49% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
-
dawla al islamyya 'completely defeated' in iraq ( 49% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-10; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
-
Before Jan 1, 2018, at least five deaths will occur in the US widely attributed to Antifa ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-17; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
-
There will be federal laws or regulations on high speed trading in the U.S. by end of 2017 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-14; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
-
No human head transplant results in a conscious subject. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
-
Brent crude will finish above $60 per barrel. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
-
Assad will remain President of Syria. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
-
Trump will not be impeached. ( 89% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
-
Trump will end the year above 35% approval. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
-
Trump’s approval will be below 55% throughout the year. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
-
Ethiopia will see GDP growth of >= 7%. ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
-
Joseph Kabila will not be in power. ( 55% confidence )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
-
Pro-Russian forces will continue to hold Donetsk and Luhansk. ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
-
China will not enter recession this year. ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
-
We make it to Alexs moms in our electric car ( 75% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2018-01-01.
-
Marijuana decriminalized in canada in 2017 ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-02; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
-
No terrorist attack outside of Iraq and Syria causes >300 deaths in 2017. ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
-
If a large random portion of the Afghanistan population is forced to change gender presentation (the “sneetch” solution) by 2015, by 2018 the country will have passed anti-gender-discrimination laws for employment, housing, and education. ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by puritan on 2012-09-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
-
Sarah Palin named ambassador to Canada ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-09; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
-
Btc below 9k usd before 2018 ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Leohmarruda on 2017-12-03; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
-
No country will (initiate proceedings to) leave the Eurozone. ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
-
[The video with the most views on YouTube, as of January 1, 2018, will be] Despacito ( 78% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-01; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-01.
-
Btc below 7k USD before 2018 ( 13% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Leohmarruda on 2017-12-03; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by objclone on 2018-01-01.
-
Szechuan sauce theory: Rick & Morty S3 to feature at least 3 distinct (non-S1&S2) merch (paid by other corps) across the season ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sdr on 2017-04-07; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by sdr on 2018-01-01.
-
2017 predictions: I will post 0 drawings ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2018-01-01.
-
There will be another incident of at least one person getting struck and killed by a meteorite before 2018 ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-08; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
-
I will finish Stephen's Sausage Roll before 2018 ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-04-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
-
I will switch back to Windows for my general desktop/laptop computing before 2018-01-01 ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-09-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
-
I will buy an iPhone for my own use before 2018 ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
-
zfsonlinux/zfs@master will support online defragmentation of ZFS pools before 2018 ( 4% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
-
I will visit Japan before 2018 ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
-
I will do most of my programming in Elixir in 2017 ( 84% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
-
I will meet anyone in-person via okcupid, before 2018 ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
-
Non-test SpaceX rocket will explode in 2017, excluding explosions during controlled descent or landing of reusable stages ( 55% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
-
Donald Trump is still President of the United States at the end of 2017 UTC ( 85% confidence; 30 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-29; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
-
I will not watch another episode of Billions until 2018 ( 99% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-03-14; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
-
Before 2018 I will put Persona 5 on my short list of favorite single-player games ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-06; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
-
Conditional on using computers by the end of the 2017, I will still be using org-mode to organize the stuff I need to do ( 82% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-12; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
-
Before 2018, Bret Weinstein will be banned (even temporarily) from Patreon for “hate speech” ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-14; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
-
I will be employed (excluding self-employment) at some point before 2018 ( 40% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-19; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
-
I will pass my L exam (again), and allow it to expire (again). ( 80% confidence )
Created by kallman on 2015-08-22; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by kallman on 2017-12-31.
-
Princeton researchers: Facebook will lose 80% of its users by end of 2017 ( 15% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2014-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Mati on 2017-12-31.
-
I will complete my PhD by 2017-12-31. ( 63% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-04-27; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by btrettel on 2017-12-31.
-
EAUW has a meeting fall quarter 2017 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-27; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-12-31.
-
I am still using PredictionBook in 12 months (at least 5 predictions in December 2017) ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-12-22; known on 2017-12-30; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2017-12-31.
-
2017 predictions: on Dec 31 my bmi will be 18.6 – 19.5 inclusive. ( 30% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2017-12-31.
-
2017 predictions: I will have a baby (or be pregnant). ( 3% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2017-12-31.
-
2017 predictions: I will have >100 new (resolved) predictions on PredictionBook. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2017-12-31.