Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 50% | 60% | 82% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 2 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 15 | 0 | 44 |
Displaying all predictions made by oakbound. Filter by:
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Donald Trump will be elected president in 2024. ( 34% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Wineormilk on 2022-03-27; known on 2024-11-09.
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SBF extradited from the Bahamas to the US ( 91% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-14; known on 2025-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-23.
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'Avatar: The Way of Water' will domestically gross more than $175 million on its opening weekend (Dec 16-18) ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by oakbound on 2022-12-01; known on 2022-12-19; judged wrong by oakbound on 2022-12-19.
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'Avatar: The Way of Water' will domestically gross more than $650 million by January 31, 2023 (inclusive) ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by oakbound on 2022-12-01; known on 2023-01-02; judged wrong by oakbound on 2023-01-01.
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Twitter will be online on the 15th of December 2022. On that date, I will be able to post a tweet and other people will be able to see it. ( 89% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2022-11-18; known on 2022-12-15; judged right by danielfilan on 2022-12-15.
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Binance goes bankrupt ( 49% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-17; known on 2024-01-01.
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Donald Trump runs as an Independent in the 2024 Presidential election ( 27% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by firaskanaan on 2022-11-16; known on 2024-08-16.
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Joe Biden will be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2024 ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by firaskanaan on 2022-11-16; known on 2024-03-16.
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Ron DeSantis wins the 2024 Republican presidential primary ( 56% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-14; known on 2024-09-01.
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Sam Bankman-Fried will be arrested before January 1, 2024, on charges related to the (as of 2022-11-10) liquidity crunch at FTX. ( 51% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pmberg on 2022-11-10; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-13.
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Magnus Carlsen will officially accuse Hans Niemann of cheating in an over the board tournament ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by oakbound on 2022-09-21; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by oakbound on 2023-01-01.
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A human has set foot on Mars ( 9% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by oakbound on 2022-08-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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[The price per square meter for apartments in Copenhagen for Q1 2023 will be below] 44.000 dkk ( 50% confidence )
Created by oakbound on 2022-08-08; known on 2023-06-01; judged wrong by oakbound on 2023-06-25.
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[The price per square meter for apartments in Copenhagen for Q1 2023 will be below] 46.000 dkk ( 70% confidence )
Created by oakbound on 2022-08-08; known on 2023-06-01; judged right by oakbound on 2023-06-25.
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[The price per square meter for apartments in Copenhagen for Q1 2023 will be below] 48.000 dkk ( 80% confidence )
Created by oakbound on 2022-08-08; known on 2023-06-01; judged right by oakbound on 2023-06-25.
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[The price per square meter for apartments in Copenhagen for Q1 2023 will be below] 50.000 dkk ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by oakbound on 2022-08-08; known on 2023-06-01; judged right by oakbound on 2023-06-25.
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P vs. NP will be still unsolved at the end of this decade. ( 96% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Leifa on 2022-07-11; known on 2030-01-01.
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Johnny Depp is cast in a movie produced by a major film studio ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by oakbound on 2022-06-02; known on 2024-06-02.
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Amber Heard is cast in a movie produced by a major film studio ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by oakbound on 2022-06-02; known on 2024-06-02.
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[The Sweden Democrats receive more than] 23% of the votes in the 2022 election for the Swedish Riksdag ( 25% confidence )
Created by oakbound on 2022-05-26; known on 2022-09-13; judged wrong by oakbound on 2022-09-14.
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[The Sweden Democrats receive more than] 22% of the votes in the 2022 election for the Swedish Riksdag ( 60% confidence )
Created by oakbound on 2022-05-26; known on 2022-09-13; judged wrong by oakbound on 2022-09-14.
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[The Sweden Democrats receive more than] 20% of the votes in the 2022 election for the Swedish Riksdag ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by oakbound on 2022-05-26; known on 2022-09-13; judged right by oakbound on 2022-09-14.
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The Sweden Democrats receive more than 20% of the votes in the 2022 election for the Swedish Riksdag ( 85% confidence )
Created by oakbound on 2022-05-26; known on 2022-09-13.
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The number of school shootings on the NBC tracker for 2022 exceeds 9 ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-26; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by oakbound on 2023-01-01.
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User Clouduknguyen_95 will realize that their predictions have been 'griefed' and will not make another public prediction related to medicine before June 25th ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by oakbound on 2022-05-25; known on 2022-06-25; judged wrong by oakbound on 2022-05-27.
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User Tapetum-Lucidum reveals themself to be user AgentOrange by judging this prediction right ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by oakbound on 2022-05-25; known on 2022-06-08; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-26.
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User Tapetum-Lucidum reveals himself to be user AgentOrange by judging this prediction right ( 60% confidence )
Created by oakbound on 2022-05-25; known on 2022-06-08.
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Vladimir Putin become a defendant in the International Criminal Court before 2023 ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by oakbound on 2022-05-20; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by oakbound on 2023-01-01.
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Amber Heard will be found liable for defaming Johnny Depp ( 50% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by oakbound on 2022-05-20; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by oakbound on 2022-06-01.
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NATO will have more than 30 full member states before January 1, 2023, ( 42% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by oakbound on 2022-03-09; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2023-01-01.
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at least one major terrorist attack on a pride event with deaths. killers will reference “grooming” as cause. ( 25% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2024-05-08.
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assuming roe v wade is overturned, certain kinds of hormonal contraception will be classified as abortificants and banned in some states. ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.
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Russian troops invade Moldova ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-02; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-29.
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There will be a total of less than 5 school shootings in 2022, according to the NBC school shooting tracker. (see: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/school-shooting-tracker-n969951=2019&how-we-count=undefined) ( 28% confidence; 10 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by adanvers on 2022-04-01; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by adanvers on 2023-01-01.
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Any movie will win 6 or more Oscars at the 94th Academy Awards ceremony. ( 18% confidence )
Created by oakbound on 2022-03-21; known on 2022-03-28; judged right by oakbound on 2022-03-28.
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Ukraine to surrender to Russia by May 1st. ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-03-18; known on 2022-05-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-05-01.
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'Morbius' will gross $50 million or more on opening weekend in the USA ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by oakbound on 2022-03-18; known on 2022-04-08; judged wrong by oakbound on 2022-04-04.
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An earthquake measuring 8.0 or above will occur anywhere on Earth before June 1, 2022 ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by oakbound on 2022-03-17; known on 2022-06-02; judged wrong by oakbound on 2022-06-01.
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The closing price of a barrel of crude oil will be $115 or more on March 15, 2022 ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by oakbound on 2022-03-08; known on 2022-03-16; judged wrong by oakbound on 2022-03-16.
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Danes will vote yes to abolish Denmark's opt-out from EU's common security and defense policy ( 70% confidence )
Created by oakbound on 2022-03-07; known on 2022-06-01; judged right by oakbound on 2022-06-01.
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Russian-Ukrainian War – Will Russia control Lviv as of 2nd April, 2022? ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-03-06; known on 2022-04-03; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-04-03.
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Ethereum price will reach a new all time high in 2022 ( 17% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-05; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by oakbound on 2023-01-01.
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Russian-Ukrainian War – Will Russia control Kyiv as of April 2, 2022 ( 27% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-26; known on 2022-04-03; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-04-03.
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The USA government will be removed before the end of 2022 (according to Wikipedia). ( 5% confidence; 18 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sortega on 2022-02-10; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2023-01-01.
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Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death. ( 6% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2017-03-17; known on 2037-03-17; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-09-08.
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Google will survive for 15 more years ( 91% confidence; 29 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-05-19; known on 2028-05-19.