Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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The Newsweek reporter will be fired within a year. ( 32% confidence; 14 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-03-07; known on 2015-03-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-03-07.
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In first semester exams for my third year, I will get 70% or higher ( 99% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-03-14; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-03-06.
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CBP sighted at fewest one lecture for at fewest four of my courses ( 79% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-25; known on 2015-03-01; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-03-06.
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FMK will claim that she has never smoked in her life ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-03-06; known on 2015-03-06; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-03-06.
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FMK will claim that she has never smoked in her life ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-03-06; known on 2015-03-06; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-03-06.
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FMK will claim that she has never smoked in her life ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-03-06; known on 2015-03-06; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-03-06.
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We'll have another dot-com boom by 2016 (NASDAQ reaching 5k) ( 50% confidence; 9 wagers; 16 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-10; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2015-03-06.
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ST Enterprise: In S3.09, the horse they take on loan at the start of the episode dies. ( 40% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-05-04; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2015-03-05.
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Eliezer will accept an answer involving Harry secretly partially transfiguring something while his wand is pointed at the ground in such a way that Voldemort doesn't notice until too late. ( 32% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JohnWittle on 2015-02-28; known on 2015-03-03; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-05.
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Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-26; known on 2015-02-27; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-03-05.
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British forces withdrawn from Afghanistan by 2015 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-03-05.
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Bruce Lee died at conventional age thirty-one ( 15% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-03-05; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05.
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Bruce Lee died at conventional age thirty ( 60% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-03-05; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05.
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Bruce Lee died at conventional age 29, 30, or 31 ( 80% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-03-05; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05.
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University was founded in or after 1960 ( 90% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-03-05; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05.
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Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-03-05; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05.
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Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-03-05; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05.
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As was on Songs in the Key of Life ( 70% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-03-05; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05.
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Amaterasu, Susasnoo, Tsukuyomi siblings ( 60% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-03-05; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05.
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Neji swastika is left-facing ( 80% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-03-05; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05.
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The swastika on Ichigo's original bankai is opposite-facing to the Nazi one, conditional on orientation not seeming obviously inconsistent when checking ( 64% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-03-05; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05.
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(Abraham Lincoln born in then-Illinois) or (Abraham Lincoln born in place in now-Illinois) ( 65% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-03-05; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05.
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Stevie Wonder born in New York state ( 40% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-03-05; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05.
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Big Mac + medium fries + medium diet coke has <1000 kcal conditional on figure given on UK website ( 67% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-03-05; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05.
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Conditional on figure being given on UK website, 200 or less calories in medium Maccy D's fries ( 30% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-03-05; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05.
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David Cameron has unambiguously brown eyes ( 80% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-03-05; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05.
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There's a dance sequence in the Savoy Ballroom in that Malcolm X film, conditional on that film existing as I think it does ( 83% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-03-05; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05.
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Obama six foot or taller ( 66% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-03-05; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05.
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Tom Odell between 27 and 33 conventional years of age inclusive ( 43% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-03-05; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05.
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That FB notification is that ( 55% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-03-05; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05.
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Next season of House of Cards features the orchestrated resignation of a SCOTUS judge. ( 20% confidence )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-08-10; known on 2015-05-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-05.
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A will go to France before March 2015. ( 50% confidence )
Created by adri on 2014-12-09; known on 2015-03-01; judged right by adri on 2015-03-04.
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HPMoR: Quirrels prediction that Voldemort killed the snake in the chamber of secrets will turn out to incorrect. ( 16% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ChristianKl on 2013-03-24; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by player_03 on 2015-03-04.
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[HPMOR] The character killed in CH89 is dead and will stay dead. ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by raisin on 2014-05-17; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Roxolan on 2015-03-04.
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HPMoR: In chapter 111, Voldemort is lying about the loss of the Horcrux network, conditional on events not being inside a realm created by the mirror. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2015-02-25; known on 2015-03-14; judged right by jbeshir on 2015-03-22.
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HPMoR: In chapter 111, Voldemort is lying about the loss of the Horcrux network, conditional on events not being inside a realm created by the mirror. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2015-02-25; known on 2015-03-14; judged right by jbeshir on 2015-03-22.
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HP MoR: the troll attack in ch88-89 was executed by Severus Snape ( 18% confidence; 23 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-06-30; known on 2015-06-30; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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HP MoR: Bacon's diary is a Horcrux ( 27% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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HP MoR: Bacon's diary is a Horcrux made by Quirrel ( 28% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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HP MoR: Bacon's diary is a Horcrux made by Quirrel when he killed Rita Skeeter ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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HP MoR: Bacon's diary will turn out to be just a diary. ( 56% confidence; 19 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-02-01; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Quirrel ( 70% confidence; 18 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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HP MoR: It will be revealed (either in the story or by Eliezer outside it) that it is impossible to lie in Parseltongue. ( 45% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by 75th on 2013-07-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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[HPMOR Ch. 114] Conditional on EY accepting a viable fan solution, it will be different to what will actually happen in the story. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by dain on 2015-03-02; known on 2015-03-03; judged wrong by dain on 2015-03-03.
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[HPMOR Ch. 114] The true solution involves time travel ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by dain on 2015-03-02; known on 2015-03-03; judged wrong by dain on 2015-03-03.
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EY accepts at least one answer for the Final Exam, causing the story to continue to chapter 121. ( 78% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by tedks on 2015-03-02; known on 2015-03-04; judged right by iwakun on 2015-03-03.
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[HPMOR Ch. 114] The true solution will hinge on truly convincing Voldemort to let Harry out of the box (i.e. no “brute force” transfiguration solutions where talking is just a distraction) ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dain on 2015-03-02; known on 2015-03-03; judged wrong by iwakun on 2015-03-03.
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[HPMOR, Ch. 114] The true solution relies on Partial Transfiguration ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by dain on 2015-03-02; known on 2015-03-03; judged right by iwakun on 2015-03-03.
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HJPEV has access to Voldemort's Horcrux network, due to being sufficiently Tom Riddle. ( 56% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by linkhyrule5 on 2015-02-21; known on 2015-03-07; judged wrong by tedks on 2015-03-03.
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The cat will throw up on Monday. ( 2% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-28; known on 2015-03-03; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-03-03.