Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 51% | 60% | 66% | 81% | 92% | 97% | |
Sample Size | 137 | 234 | 231 | 257 | 634 | 119 | 1612 |
Displaying all predictions made by PseudonymousUser. Filter by:
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I will be killed or more than slightly injured skydiving for the first time Saturday ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-01; known on 2011-09-04; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-03.
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The current criteria for awarding the “Poseidon award” offered by the seastead insitute, will be met by someone by 2015. ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Konkvistador on 2011-08-30; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by a0c4a123f7 on 2016-01-01.
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I will watch one or more of Tokyo Godfathers, Gunslinger Girl, The Cat Returns, or Haibane Renmei before 2014-01-01 and really like one or more ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-30; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-18.
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“Will Ron Paul to win a Republican primary/caucus in 2012?” —Intrade ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-29; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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My house will lose water when Hurricane Irene hits. ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-27; known on 2011-08-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-29.
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There will be no statistically significant increase in neutrino levels detected by detectors attributable to the recent supernova in M101. ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-26; known on 2011-09-30; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-25.
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EveryDNS will stop responding to DNS requests before 2011-09-02 00:00 UTC ( 71% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-25; known on 2011-09-02.
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My DNS provider migration for 6 domains will not cause any downtime (incl. web and email), where downtime is caused by a misconfiguration on my part ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-25; known on 2011-08-28; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-30.
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Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored. ( 18% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-25; known on 2039-08-25.
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gwern will make a prediction on PredictionBook any time during 2012 (UTC) ( 96% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-03.
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I will watch all 26 episodes of Gantz before 2012-01-01 UTC ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.
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Bitcoin stays >= $60 for at least 72 hours, any time before 2013-01-01 UTC ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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I will burn any kind of optical disc between 2014-01-01 00:00 UTC and 2015-01-01 00:00 UTC ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-24; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-04-03.
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I will burn any kind of optical disc between 2013-01-01 00:00 UTC and 2014-01-01 00:00 UTC ( 79% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-31.
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I will burn any kind of optical disc between 2012-01-01 00:00 UTC and 2013-01-01 00:00 UTC ( 89% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-04.
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Between 2013-07-01 to 2013-12-31, I will type and do a majority of my typing on a SafeType or similar vertical keyboard ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
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I will be the primary developer of an app in Apple's iOS App Store, where such app is published and publicly available before 2012-01-01 UTC ( 27% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.
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“Any US Supreme Court Justice to announce retirement/resignation before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
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A scene release group will release a cracked (or crack for) Deus Ex: Human Revolution (PC) before 2011-08-25 00:00 UTC ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-24; known on 2011-08-25; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-25.
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“Intrade.com to be open for business on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 97% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.
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“In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones” —Marc Andreessen ( 78% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-20; known on 2021-08-20; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2021-08-20.
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Google+ will revoke its ban on pseudonymous accounts within a year. ( 19% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-20; known on 2012-08-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-20.
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I will find a buyer for my car with a blown head gasket for >= $800 ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jach on 2011-08-18; known on 2012-01-16; judged right by Jach on 2011-10-22.
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Clojure becomes dominant JVM language on GitHub ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jach on 2011-08-18; known on 2016-10-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-16.
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HPMOR will update again by October 20th ( 55% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-17; known on 2011-10-21; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-25.
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I will have watched every video on Khan Academy by August 2013. ( 39% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Alexander Kruel on 2011-08-17; known on 2013-08-17; judged wrong by dk on 2013-11-04.
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By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms. ( 30% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Alexander Kruel on 2011-08-17; known on 2030-01-01.
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Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030 ( 26% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Alexander Kruel on 2011-08-17; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by Porejide on 2011-08-25.
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“Dec 2011 unemployment rate to be 9.4% or higher” —Intrade ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-01-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-07.
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“Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-12-31.
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“Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-31.
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“Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 16% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“Magnitude 9.0 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“Magnitude 8.0 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“The Chicago Spire to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“Ron Paul to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012” —Intrade ( 13% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-08-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-30.
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“Hillary Clinton to be elected President in 2012” —Intrade ( 4% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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“Rick Perry to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012” —Intrade ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-08-30; judged wrong by falenas108 on 2012-04-19.
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'John Bolton to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012' ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-08-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-30.
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Ron Paul will be dead by 2017. ( 22% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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'NASA to announce discovery of extraterrestrial life before midnight ET 31 Dec 2014' —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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'NASA to announce discovery of extraterrestrial life before midnight ET 31 Dec 2013' —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-31.
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Firefox 6 will build correctly on Windows 7 on my first try (note: FF5 built just fine a few months ago) ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-12; known on 2011-08-13; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-13.
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Next iPad refresh (“iPad 3” or similar) will have a model with a >= 240 dpi primary display ( 85% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-10; known on 2012-04-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-03-07.
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The Curiosity rover will successfully land on Mars. ( 70% confidence; 14 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-09; known on 2012-09-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-06.
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The Dow Jones will be at least 11,000 on January 1st, 2012 ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-09; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
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I will make more changes to predictionbook that will be included in the official repo, where inclusion happens before 2013-01-01 UTC ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-11-10.
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Apple will ship a Macbook Air (or closest product successor) with a non-glossy display to a customer before 2013-01-01 UTC ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-08; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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I will make at least one prediction on PredictionBook in 2012 ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-05; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.
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“Bitcoins will outperform Gold, Silver by 100X over the next two years” —Roger Ver ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-04; known on 2013-08-04; judged wrong by mfb on 2013-08-31.
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Ron Paul will win the electoral vote in the 2012 U.S. Presidential election ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-04; known on 2012-11-08; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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MyBitcoin will go back up before 2011-09-04 UTC and allow > 90% of users to withdraw their full balances ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-04; known on 2011-09-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-14.
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Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen. ( 47% confidence; 23 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-03; known on 2041-01-01.
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The US Mint will mint one or more high-value coins ($100K+/coin) before 2011-09-15 ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-07-30; known on 2011-09-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-15.
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A 1MW cold-fusion reactor will NOT be demonstrated in October this year. ( 93% confidence; 18 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by scav on 2011-07-28; known on 2011-10-31; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-11-03.
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Between January and June 2017 (inclusive), I will enter text into my computers and the majority of this text will be entered using a physical keyboard with physical buttons that depress at least 2.5mm ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-07-21; known on 2017-07-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-07-01.
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I will move out of the small suburban city in northern California where I have lived for 14 years, before March 1, 2012 ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-07-21; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-03-01.
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I will write programs between January 2013 and July 2013 (inclusive) and do a majority of this programming on a monitor in portrait orientation ( 57% confidence; 45 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-07-21; known on 2013-08-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-08-01.
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Spot gold price will touch at least $2000 by December 31, 2012. ( 52% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dakyne on 2011-07-16; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by dakyne on 2013-01-01.
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“We believe that by 2015 digital currency will be accepted everywhere in the U.S. – from your local corner store to Walmart. We will no longer need to carry a wallet,” PayPal President Scott Thompson ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-07-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-04.
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The US dept ceiling will be raised by August 2 ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-15; known on 2011-08-02; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-02.
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From May 2014 to April 2015 (inclusive), Microsoft will not ship any free security patches or hotfixes for Windows XP. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-07-15; known on 2015-05-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-05-01.
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I will be raided or searched over my Silk Road article. ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-12; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-02.
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I will not smoke any tobacco products over the next 5 years. ( 98% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-11; known on 2016-07-11; judged right by gwern on 2016-07-11.
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XiXiDu will not comment or post to LW for 5 years. ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-11; known on 2016-07-11; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-16.
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By 2061, India will be the world's largest economy —Scott Sumner ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-10; known on 2061-01-01; judged right by Vaibhav_Srivastva on 2020-12-01.
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the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. —S. Jay Olshansky ( 7% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-29; known on 2100-01-01.
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Greece will not default on or shave its bondholders. —Stefan Homburg ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2012-06-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-05.
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'A Clay problem will be solved by two independent researchers at about the same time.' in 2011 —Lipton ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
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'Amazon builds its first bricks-and-mortar superstore.' ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-22; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-14.
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Obama will not run for a second term. (http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=312393 ) ( 3% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-21; known on 2012-02-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-20.
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Greece will default on its debt before 2011-09-01 00:00 UTC ( 50% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-06-19; known on 2011-09-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-02.
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Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ( 47% confidence; 22 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-09; known on 2050-01-01.
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'Facebook will be valued above 200B [at some point] within the next 5 years: 80% confidence' —Arthur Breitman ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-09; known on 2016-06-07; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-05.
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Bitcoin >=$100 by July 1 —the-ace ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-04; known on 2011-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-30.
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Rich Sutton: AI by 'roughly 2030' ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-10; known on 2031-01-01.
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Bin Laden is still alive! ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by minhduc on 2011-05-04; known on 2011-07-04; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-04.
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Northern hemisphere will be frozen into ice age by 2012 ( 5% confidence; 19 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Ye on 2011-04-10; known on 2012-12-12; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-12.
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Bush will commit suicide by the next 3 years. ( 4% confidence; 21 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by puya on 2011-04-06; known on 2014-08-09; judged wrong by clemux on 2014-08-09.
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I wont see her any more ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-01; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by nam2001 on 2012-04-09.
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apple store in Sydney will not sell all the new ibad2 on 25 of march ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Hani on 2011-03-18; known on 2011-03-25; judged right by Hani on 2011-03-31.
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Deus Ex 3's North America release will be pushed back past August 23, 2011 (release for one platform counts as release) ( 23% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-03-18; known on 2011-08-24; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-23.
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The international media will not mention anything about Japan's Earthquake on next Monday ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by wael on 2011-03-17; known on 2011-03-22; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-22.
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Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020. ( 12% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2020-01-01.
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Initial shipments of iPad 2 will have a display that emits circularly polarized light ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-03-01; known on 2011-04-03; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-04-05.
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'bitcoins will be unobtainable or obtainable for less than 1 cents (2010 dollars)/btc on 24 February 2021' —ivan ( 45% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-24; known on 2021-02-25; judged wrong by gwern on 2021-02-25.
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http://www.longbets.org/601 will be a broken link in 11 years —Jeremy Keith ( 13% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-19; known on 2022-02-18; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-18.
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'1000 dollars per Bitcoin by the end of the year.' —Bruce Wagner ( 4% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-17; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
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Mubarak will cease to be Egypt's President by 2012. ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-02-11.
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“By January 21, 2016, Facebook will not have the largest market share of social network users who log in at least once per day.” —John Feminella ( 47% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-25; known on 2016-01-21; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-21.
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A team will win the Google Lunar X PRIZE grand prize before the end of 2015 ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-01-21; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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'In 2011, a new law will be proposed in some jurisdiction which specifically: Restricts cryonics activity.' —icebrand ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
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'75% probability of [eyewear computing] being mainstream, or at least not unusual, by 2020.' —orangecat ( 36% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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'Clashes between North Korea and South Korea will result in fatalities' —JoshuaZ ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
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'General AI will not be made in 2011.' —JoshuaZ ( 97% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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'1.8-inch and 3.5-inch [hard] disk drives will die' and 2.5 inch drives thrive in 2011 —Robert X. Cringely ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-02.
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Nintendo to announce successor to Wii in 2011 —Game Informer ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-06-11.
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Readers' Choice for Time's 2011 Person of the Year: Anonymous —Seamus Condron ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.
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Apple will release the iPhone 5 and it will be available in white in 2011. ( 51% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-01.
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Apple will release an iPad with a built-in camera in 2011. ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-06-11.