Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 40% | 79% | 60% | 74% | 96% | 90% | |
Sample Size | 10 | 19 | 20 | 27 | 48 | 10 | 134 |
Displaying all predictions made by Leo. Filter by:
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Borders of Mali modified in the next ten years ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Leo on 2012-03-26; known on 2022-03-27; judged wrong by amadeu on 2022-04-21.
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Elections judged democratic by foreign observers held in Mali ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Leo on 2012-03-26; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Leo on 2013-01-13.
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Malian junta remains in power ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Leo on 2012-03-26; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by dk on 2014-03-21.
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Amadou Toumani Toure regains power in Mali ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Leo on 2012-03-26; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.
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Amadou Toumani Toure known dead on Dec 31 ( 30% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2012-03-26; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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Amadou Toumani Toure known alive on Dec 31 ( 60% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2012-03-26; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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Scientists will confirm discovery of Higgs Boson by end of 2012 ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-07; known on 2013-01-16; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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US obesity is going down (2012 “obesity” as measured by government health data will be lower than the percentage in 2011) ( 53% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-05; known on 2013-02-15; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-06-15.
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“Submit ACTA to the Senate” petition will reach 25k signatures by the deadline. ( 48% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-26; known on 2012-02-21.
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Tchaikovsky was a known drug addict. ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Leo on 2012-02-20; known on 2012-02-20; judged wrong by Leo on 2012-02-20.
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Friend who initially ignored my coming out will reliably refer to me with male pronouns within the year. ( 30% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2012-02-08; known on 2013-02-08; judged right by Leo on 2013-01-13.
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GJP: #1083 Will Marine LePen cease to be a candidate for President of France before 10 April 2012? ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-07; known on 2012-04-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-10.
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Second Falklands War before 2035 ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-07; known on 2035-01-01.
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There will be at least one human being alive on earth even after the end of the year 2012 ( 99% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by vinayak on 2012-02-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by vinayak on 2013-01-01.
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I will complete exercise 11 of Learning Ruby the Hard Way within the next 28 hours. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-07; known on 2012-02-08; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-08.
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Vi tager på staden før vi går iseng ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OptiMind on 2012-02-04; known on 2012-02-04; judged right by OptiMind on 2012-02-13.
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I will get a boyfriend this year. ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-03; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.
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By 2020, a single-word term for additive fabrication technology will replace “3D printing” in the media. ( 53% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-02-03; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Leo on 2020-01-01.
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Stopping Bupropion won't reduce my happiness by more than 10%. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-02; known on 2012-02-16; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-24.
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My self-promoting link on /r/shakespeare will have karma >0 and <11. http://www.reddit.com/r/shakespeare/comments/oy0rb/the_tragedy_of_prince_hamlet_and_the_philosophers/ ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2012-01-26; known on 2012-02-02; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-02-02.
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“Submit ACTA to Senate” petition will reach 25k signatures by the end of this month. ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-26; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-02-02.
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I will ask out the person I currently have a crush on. They will say no. ( 65% confidence; 11 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by Leo on 2012-01-25; known on 2012-02-09; judged right by Leo on 2012-01-30.
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“There will only be three languages in the world – English, Spanish and Mandarin” —Bill Walker, BBC ( 2% confidence; 34 wagers; 24 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.
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France's Sarkozy to run for presidency. ( 96% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-01-24; known on 2012-02-15; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-02-15.
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SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021. ( 13% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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The future of the Euro: “Euro survives”. ( 77% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by siscoking on 2012-01-07; known on 2014-01-16; judged right by ygert on 2014-02-02.
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General AI will not be built by 2013 ( 97% confidence; 19 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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No contact with intelligent aliens be made in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 31 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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I will reach 1000 karma on LW (http://lesswrong.com/user/RobertLumley) by June 2nd, the anniversary of my first post on LW. ( 67% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2011-12-08; known on 2012-06-02; judged right by RobertLumley on 2012-04-06.
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Logos01 will commit suicide in 5 years. ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-05; known on 2016-12-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-12-05.
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Alcor will perform >=1 cryopreservations in 2060. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2061-01-01.
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Greece will leave the Euro currency and return to the “Drachme” latest by mid 2012. ( 20% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by herb on 2011-11-29; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by Michael Stevens on 2012-07-01.
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Chavez will not be re-elected president of Venezuela on October 07, 2012. ( 33% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by alexguerrero on 2011-11-17; known on 2012-10-07; judged wrong by Pablo on 2012-10-08.
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The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025. ( 72% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.
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Synthetic meat will be mass-marketed by 2020. ( 26% confidence; 15 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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I will watch all of the second season of Game of Thrones, before 2013 ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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Either Mitt Romney or Barack Obama will win the 2012 Presidential election. ( 91% confidence; 29 wagers )
Created by HonoreDB on 2011-11-04; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.
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Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory. ( 4% confidence; 23 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-14; known on 2051-09-15; judged unknown by Arets Paeglis on 2011-10-10.
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Steve R. and I will have produced at least one dubstep song within the next six months. ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-14; known on 2012-03-14; judged wrong by Will Newsome on 2012-09-05.
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A professional athlete will not voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041. ( 38% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-11; known on 2041-01-01.
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Nicolas Sarkozy to be elected President of France in 2012 —Intrade ( 45% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2012-05-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-05-06.
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2012 is not end of this world! ( 98% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-11; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
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GRRM dies before finishing A Song of Ice and Fire ( 49% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2040-01-01.
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Polio in the wild eliminated by 2025 —Tachi Yamada ( 58% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2025-01-01.
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By 2050 most computer hardware will no longer be binary. ( 18% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-10-31; known on 2050-01-01.
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'2050 Bored in this era, millions decide to use cryonic suspension to emigrate into the future in search of adventure.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2051-01-01.
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“By 2050 the tallest free or non-free standing structure in the world will reach over 10 kilometers in height.” ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.
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“On or before 8 June 2030, there will exist a computer language or programming system in which the prototypical first program, traditionally called “Hello, world!”, will have an executable file whose size exceeds 1 gigabyte.” ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2030-06-08.
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“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.” ( 41% confidence; 28 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.