Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 53% | 59% | 70% | 78% | 87% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 138 | 156 | 130 | 125 | 118 | 8 | 675 |
Displaying all predictions made by KnaveOfAllTrades. Filter by:
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FC other than x before 07:00 Monday 1st June 2015 ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-17; known on 2015-06-01; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-02.
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Will go past admission at Po's on 23rd/24th night ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-17; known on 2015-01-24; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-01-24.
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I will think I've received some notable bit of 'positive' evidence that FMK is a bad idea by Monday 16th February. (FPP) ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-17; known on 2015-02-16; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-25.
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I will endorse the proposition that there was an R-'caused' F thing that felt like it was probably an Incident/Not Good between now and 06:00 Monday 16th February. (FPP) ( 40% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-17; known on 2015-02-16; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-25.
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This can of Diet Coke has >=1kcal of given as its energy ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-17; known on 2015-01-17; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-17.
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We see Ricky as we leave BK ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-16; known on 2015-01-16; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-17.
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I go into Po's this Friday ( 89% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-12; known on 2015-01-18; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-01-17.
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It was Lana Del Rey in BK ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-12; known on 2015-01-12; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-12.
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It was two of the blocks ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-26; known on 2014-11-26; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-30.
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I go to GE ( 45% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22; known on 2014-11-22; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22.
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Roy at karaoke ( 18% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22; known on 2014-11-22; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22.
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Projecter board wipeable ( 85% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22; known on 2014-11-22; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22.
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CP Friends w/ RyW (FB) ( 84% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22; known on 2014-11-22; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22.
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Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22; known on 2014-11-22; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22.
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He was serious about t's too much. ( 80% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22; known on 2014-11-22; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22.
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Guy was running into old house ( 60% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22; known on 2014-11-22; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22.
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MS makes it to round 2 of try-outs ( 62% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-12; known on 2014-11-13; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22.
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NC tomorrow ( 10% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-09; known on 2014-11-11; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-12.
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I get one or more more bits/questions of the stats coursework done tomorrow. ( 70% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-09; known on 2014-11-11; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-12.
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I go to GE tomorrow ( 60% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-09; known on 2014-11-11; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-12.
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TB at karaoke ( 25% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-09; known on 2014-11-10; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-09.
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2nd date with I ( 57% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-09; known on 2014-12-01; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22.
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TD did exam q's in the most recent problems class. ( 14% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-06; known on 2014-11-06; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-06.
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It's KA on the bus. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-06; known on 2014-11-06; judged right by qwerty314 on 2014-11-06.
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One or both of us sees R in BK by 300s after I go through the door. ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-06; known on 2014-11-06; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2014-11-06.
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Given I do not ask him first, Priest will ask me to play PB before or on Friday ( 14% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-03; known on 2014-11-07; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2014-11-07.
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50 or more candidates turn up to the first session of tryouts today ( 55% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-29; known on 2014-10-31; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-29.
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Meet up with Megan by or on 30th November. ( 40% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-28; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-12.
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Number close Ellie2 by or on November 30th ( 20% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-28; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-12.
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My 100% category (and someone else's) dropped, and this was because of a reversed old prediction or site change, rather than a high-confidence prediction of mine being newly judged since Thursday 23rd November 2014 ( 99% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-06.
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Conditional on it being the next action and sent by the end of Saturday 1st November, Megan replies to my text by or on Sunday 9th November. ( 67% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-28; known on 2014-11-10.
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Number close LS by or on November 30th ( 16% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-28; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-01.
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Number close RT by or on November 30th ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-28; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-12.
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Meet up with Nicola by or on 30th November. ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-28; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-12.
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BOTH decisively self-identifies C ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-27; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by qwerty314 on 2014-11-03.
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I will do 5-10 pomos (inclusive) today. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by from3004 on 2014-10-26; known on 2014-10-26; judged right by from3004 on 2014-10-26.
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I will do less than 5 pomos today. ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by from3004 on 2014-10-26; known on 2014-10-26; judged wrong by from3004 on 2014-10-26.
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I will do >10 pomos today. ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by from3004 on 2014-10-26; known on 2014-10-26; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-27.
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KnaveOfAllTrades put 100% (or 0%) on PredictionBook on one of more of yesterday's meetup prediction ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-20; known on 2014-10-20; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-20.
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Bath #15: The endowment given on Wikipedia for the endowment of the University of Bath is greater than or equal to £317.2 million. ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged wrong by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
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Bath #14: Wikipedia: Electron discovered by or on 31st December 1923 ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged right by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
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Bath #13: An 'English' mile, to four decimal places, is 1.6034km (Wikipedia) ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged wrong by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
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Bath #12: Eliezer born in 1979 ( 92% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged right by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
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Bath #11: The battery amount given on Wikipedia in the infobox for the Samsung Galaxy S3 is greater or equal to 3700mAh ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged wrong by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
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Bath #10: The UK infant mortality rate is less than or equal to 1.36 per 1000 according to the CIA World Factbook ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged wrong by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
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Bath #9: The earliest edit on the Wikipedia article for sudoku was on or before 1st January 2005 ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged wrong by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
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Bath #8: Elizabeth II was born in 1926 ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged right by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
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Bath #7: The Young's modulus of steel given in the infobox on Wikipedia is less than or equal to 140GPa ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged wrong by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
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Bath #6: The number of letters in the Cyrillic alphabet is less than or equal to 30 ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged right by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
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Bath #5: Virginia Woolf's lifespan is less than or equal to 45 years going by calendar ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged wrong by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
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The highest figure give on the Wikipedia article in the infobox for the length of the Nile is less than or equal to 3100.9km ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged wrong by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
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Bath #3: An even number of elements have been found/synthesised ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged right by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
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The density of water under standard conditions is >=1kg per litre ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged wrong by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
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Bath #1 Wladimir Klitchsko's mass is <= 110kg ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged right by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
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Usain Bolt sets a new world record in the 200m. ( 20% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-18; known on 2025-01-01.
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Usain Bolt sets a new personal best in the 200m. ( 31% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-18; known on 2025-01-01.
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Usain Bolt sets a new world record in the 100m. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-18; known on 2025-01-01.
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Usain Bolt sets a new PB in the 100m. ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-18; known on 2025-01-01.
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I will finish reading and doing representative problems from chapters 1-4 of Ideals, Varieties, and Algorithms by David Cox by the midterm on 10/29/2014. (I started 10/16/2014) ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by from3004 on 2014-10-16; known on 2014-10-29; judged right by from3004 on 2014-10-29.
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beta_b by or on Halloween ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-14; known on 2014-11-01; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2014-11-04.
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Two or more people that I do not bring turn up to the first Bath LW meetup. (Fixed point prediction.) ( 87% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-14; known on 2014-10-20; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-20.
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'collinear' is a recognized spelling on Wiktionary (possibly e.g. British English). ( 85% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-14; known on 2014-10-14; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-14.
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I will die on HabitRPG this month. ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by tylercurtis on 2014-10-14; known on 2014-11-01; judged right by tylercurtis on 2014-11-02.
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Thursday 16th: No flakage, conditional on text as discussed. ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-12; known on 2014-10-16; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-16.
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The metric spaces lecturer says a sentence containing 'I claim' during the two hour lecture today ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-07; known on 2014-10-07; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-07.
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The number of undergraduates at Bath Spa, conditional on such a figure being given and being unique, is 6500 or greater ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-07; known on 2014-10-07; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-07.
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The longest figure given on the Wikipedia info-box, conditional on it being given, for the length of the M25 is longer that 116 miles ( 91% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-07; known on 2014-10-07; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-07.
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Conditional on us going, someone (possibly including Ross) picks Mr Brightside ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-07; known on 2014-10-11; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-12.
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Conditional on us going. Ross plays Senorita i.e. he does it or nobody else pick it ( 93% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-07; known on 2014-10-11; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-12.
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Avril Lavigne is colloquially 30 years old ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-07; known on 2014-10-07; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-07.
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The age of Kylie Minogue is 46 years old ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-07; known on 2014-10-07; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-07.
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I am accepted to Y Combinator with my idea for an EEG framework: http://synaptitude.me/, Winter 2015 ( 25% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lettergram on 2014-10-05; known on 2014-11-01; judged wrong by lettergram on 2014-11-01.
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McSweeney's will NOT select my list, “Four Vegetables You Hated As A Kid But Should Give A Second Chance, Even If They Did Murder Your Family”, as a piece to publish on their website. ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-10-04; known on 2014-11-01; judged right by aarongertler on 2014-11-21.
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The number of episodes of The O.C. is 92 or 96, including specials ( 93% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-02; known on 2014-10-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-02.
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The highest land area given in the infobox for Russia is 325,000,000(km^2) or more ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-02; known on 2014-10-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-02.
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The number of Google results for 'Monopoly' (conditional on a unique figure being given) is 4,000,000 or more ( 89% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-02; known on 2014-10-02; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-02.
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The greatest speed of a barracuda that is given on its WIkipedia page (conditional on being given) is 73MPH or higher ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-02; known on 2014-10-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-02.
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The greatest height given on Wikipedia for Ben Nevis in the infobox (conditional on such a height being given) is 4500 feet or more ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-02; known on 2014-10-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-02.
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Tommy Hilfiger (the company) was established in 1977 or later ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-02; known on 2014-10-02; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-02.
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Geoff Smith was born on 1st October 1954 or earlier ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-02; known on 2014-10-02; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-02.
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The number milligrams of sodium in a bottle of water is less than or equal to 12.5mg ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-02; known on 2014-10-02; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-02.
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The number of countries in Africa is 58+/-1 conditional on clear-cut answer. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-02; known on 2014-10-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-02.
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I will finish the exercises from “Thermal Physics” by end October 2014, thus completing second year physics. ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-10-01; known on 2014-10-31; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-11-02.
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[LoL Worlds] Finals won by Korean team. ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2014-09-26; known on 2014-10-20; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-20.
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[LoL Worlds] At least one Korean team in finals. ( 97% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2014-09-26; known on 2014-10-20; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-20.
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Keys were in trivial place ( 90% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25; known on 2014-09-25; judged unknown by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25.
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Barack Obama is over fifty years old ( 50% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25; known on 2014-09-25; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25.
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Global population is over 7.1 billion (Wikipedia) ( 68% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25; known on 2014-09-25; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25.
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Global GDP PPP is over $100 trillion (Wikipedia) ( 44% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25; known on 2014-09-25; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25.
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Second appeal reverses decision ( 25% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25; known on 2014-11-14; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-01.
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The population of Nigeria is over 400 million (Wikipedia) ( 63% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25; known on 2014-09-25; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25.
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The Princess Bride has 90+% approval from Top Critics on Rotten Tomatoes ( 85% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25; known on 2014-09-25; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25.
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The current or most recent season of The Simpsons was season 25 ( 40% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25; known on 2014-09-25; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25.
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I wash the towel by the midnight starting Sunday 28th ( 65% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25; known on 2014-09-29; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-01.
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I would have to rejig my unit choices ( 60% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25; known on 2014-09-26; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25.
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Nick Bostrom replies to my comment on his Reddit AMA ( 20% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25; known on 2014-09-26; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25.
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His keys were somewhere trivial ( 90% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-23; known on 2014-09-23; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-23.
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My ASUS X99 motherboard will burn out some component or otherwise suffer electrically-induced damaged, in the first 30 days of operation ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-09-21; known on 2014-11-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-10-27.
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I will have reached a streak of at least 14 on my HabitRPG daily for making predictions on predictionbook at least once by end of October. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by tylercurtis on 2014-09-21; known on 2014-11-01; judged wrong by tylercurtis on 2014-11-02.
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6 beats 12 http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/l0n/youre_entitled_to_everyones_opinion/bcus ( 85% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-20; known on 2014-09-20; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-20.