Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 17% | 67% | 63% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 10 | 6 | 12 | 8 | 15 | 0 | 51 |
Displaying all predictions made by leo_grint. Filter by:
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<5 personnes restant au moins 5 min entre 17h30 et 18h50 ( 73% confidence )
Created by leo_grint on 2018-12-18; known on 2018-12-19; judged right by leo_grint on 2018-12-18.
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Less than 10 deaths in the gilet jaunes manifestation today ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by leo_grint on 2018-12-08; known on 2018-12-09; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-15.
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Luna (dating on blockchain) will have more than 200 000 users (created accounts) by the end of 2018 ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by leo_grint on 2018-01-31; known on 2019-07-02; judged wrong by enolan on 2019-07-06.
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Luna (dating on blockchain) will have more than 40 000 registered users by the end of 2018 ( 70% confidence )
Created by leo_grint on 2018-01-31; known on 2019-07-02.
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Luna (dating on blockchain) is not a scam. ( 94% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by leo_grint on 2018-01-31; known on 2018-06-30; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.
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North Korea is invaded by the end of 2017 ( 7% confidence; 24 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-07-29; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-06-07.
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Rey is a child of Luke Skywalker ( 45% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-01; known on 2018-06-02; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2017-12-21.
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La La Land wins best picture at the 2017 Oscars ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by penten on 2017-02-03; known on 2017-02-28; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-02-27.
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Legitimate 512 GB USB flash drives will be available on Amazon from at least two different reputable sellers for less than $100 per drive by January 1, 2018. ( 45% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2018-01-03; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-03.
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Peter Thiel announces 2018 bid for California governorship ( 17% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-15; known on 2018-11-07; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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AFD will get <30% of votes in Germany's federal elections. ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukas11 on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-10-23; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2017-10-30.
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Angela Merkel is re-elected Chancellor of Germany ( 79% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2017-11-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2017-09-25.
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Arnaud Montebourg wins french left wing primary. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by leo_grint on 2016-11-22; known on 2017-01-22; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-02-02.
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Francois Hollande to enter french presidential race ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by leo_grint on 2016-11-22; known on 2016-12-23; judged wrong by leo_grint on 2016-12-01.
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Fillon wins french right wing primary ( 80% confidence )
Created by leo_grint on 2016-11-22; known on 2016-12-06; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-29.
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2017 will be the hottest year on record. ( 52% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Osuniev on 2016-11-21; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by Osuniev on 2018-02-02.
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Jean Luc Mélenchon becomes French president ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Osuniev on 2016-11-21; known on 2017-05-07; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-05-07.
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The total hate crime incidents as measured by the FBI's Uniform Crime Report will be no more than 125% of their 2015 value at any year during a Trump presidency, conditional on similar reporting methodology. ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2016-11-18; known on 2021-01-02.
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At least one cartoonist arrested for cartoon of President Trump in US ( 19% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-01-01.
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World population hits 7.5 billion in 2017 ( 89% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-17; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency. ( 87% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-20; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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Total US hate crimes incidents (see comment) will not be more than 125% at any year during Trump presidency. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-20.
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Wiz Khalifa and Charlie Puth's “See You Again” will hit 3 billion views on YouTube before Justin Bieber's “Sorry” will. ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2018-06-30; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-08-07.
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Justin Bieber's “Sorry” will reach 3 billion views on YouTube before Psy's “Gangnam Style” will. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2018-06-30; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-11-26.
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The electors in the Electoral College will give both Trump and Pence >= 270 votes ( 93% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-11; known on 2016-12-20; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-19.
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LePen elected president of france, 2017 ( 43% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by regex on 2017-05-07.
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Clinton wins by 5 points or more. ( 24% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-11-07; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Facebook has <=50M active users in 2021 ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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The next elected President of the United States will be either a Republican or a Democrat. ( 97% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2016-11-11; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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I will be single on Sep 1, 2017 ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-02; known on 2017-09-02; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-01.
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One of John McCain or Paul Ryan will publicly withdraw support for Donald Trump in 2 months ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by hoka on 2016-08-09; known on 2016-10-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-10-08.
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A third party candidate will not participate in a presidential debate ( 79% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-07-13; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-08.
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Trump's polling relative to Clinton's will improve if/when they have a debate. ( 64% confidence; 9 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Bound_Up on 2016-07-06; known on 2016-10-05; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-10-05.
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Hillary Clinton wins the presidential election 2016 ( 64% confidence; 26 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2016-07-04; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Next Apple iPhone (7, not SE) excludes 3.5mm headphone jack. ( 60% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-25; known on 2016-08-16; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-09-07.
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A democrat wins New York in the 2016 general presidential election. ( 91% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-18; known on 2016-12-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2018 ( 34% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2019-06-01; judged right by Pablo on 2019-04-22.
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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020 ( 43% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2021-06-01; judged right by gwern on 2021-06-01.
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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2017 ( 9% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2018-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-06-01.
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There will be at least 3 candidates for U.S. President polling at 10%+ on the eve of the 2016 elections. ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sflicht on 2015-12-19; known on 2016-11-07; judged wrong by sflicht on 2016-11-08.