Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 100% | 63% | 67% | 100% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 27 |
Displaying all predictions made by AlexLamson. Filter by:
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The 2020 Olympics will not be cancelled ( 53% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by gurgus on 2020-02-26; known on 2020-07-24; judged right by gurgus on 2021-07-19.
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If Joe Biden wins the 2020 democratic bid for president then Donald Trump will win the 2020 election. ( 50% confidence; 29 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by jprettner on 2019-06-28; known on 2019-08-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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Gold hit above $1500/oz at least once in 2019 ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by objclone on 2019-06-20; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by objclone on 2019-08-12.
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GPT-2 1.5B or a 3rd-party model trained with at least 40GB of text will be released before 2020 ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by AlexLamson on 2019-05-29; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by AlexLamson on 2019-09-15.
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Apple will introduce some kind of augmented reality wearable device. ( 42% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by quanticle on 2019-05-27; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by quanticle on 2021-01-01.
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[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Other ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.
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[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Tulsi Gabbard ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.
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[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Beto O'Rourke ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.
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[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Pete Buttigieg ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.
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[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Elizabeth Warren ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.
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[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Kamala Harris ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.
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[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Bernie Sanders ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.
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[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Joe Biden ( 56% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged right by amadeu on 2020-04-13.
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There will be a breakthrough in mass cell culture that allows for growing artificial human organs & “clean meat” by 2050 ( 85% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by AlexLamson on 2019-04-16; known on 2050-01-01.
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Beto O'Rourke to win the 2020 Presidential election ( 4% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-12; known on 2020-11-20; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-12-11.
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Alex Trebek will die before July 1st, 2019. ( 27% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by skateboard34 on 2019-03-25; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by skateboard34 on 2019-07-01.
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Donald Trump will not be impeached or resign in his first term ( 66% confidence; 33 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Bismagician on 2017-05-18; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by CaelumCodicem on 2019-12-19.
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Trump will win a second term ( 46% confidence; 74 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2020-11-08; judged wrong by regex on 2020-11-20.
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Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034 ( 0% confidence; 27 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-10; known on 2034-01-01.
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California will secede from the United States before 2021 ( 0% confidence; 34 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-13; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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When DeepDream for audio is invented, the output will cause seriously ill effects in humans like seizures. This will happen before 2020. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Houshalter on 2016-02-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020 ( 83% confidence; 40 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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By the year 2050, Nuclear weapons would have been abolished globally for the benefit of mankind. ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15; known on 2050-01-01.
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PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today – 5/31/2023 – with this individual prediction still accessible. ( 71% confidence; 29 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by FestiveBleak on 2013-05-31; known on 2023-05-31; judged right by holycow81 7 days ago.
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Google will survive for 15 more years ( 91% confidence; 29 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-05-19; known on 2028-05-19.
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Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable “in ten thousand years, or so” ( 19% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by sdr on 2013-01-09; known on 9999-01-01.
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Gwern has dissociative identity disorder and the identity of his split personality is Yvain. ( 0% confidence; 28 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2020-01-01.