Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 70% | 46% | 65% | 89% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 6 | 10 | 13 | 23 | 55 | 5 | 112 |
Displaying all predictions made by mad. Filter by:
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I will not be living in Australia on December 31st, 2015 ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by mad on 2014-10-11; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by mad on 2016-04-14.
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I will be attempting to get pregnant within a year of my IUD being removed (e.g. IUD removed > other form of BC > trying to conceive; or IUD removed > trying to conceive) ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mad on 2014-03-05; known on 2016-02-13; judged wrong by mad on 2016-02-13.
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Created by mad on 2015-01-23; known on 2015-01-23; judged right by mad on 2015-01-23.
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In 2015 there will not be any terrorist attacks in the US that kill more than 40 people. ( 85% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01.
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Kevin will be fired on the celebrity apprentice episode 2 ( 70% confidence )
Created by mad on 2015-01-08; known on 2015-01-09; judged right by mad on 2015-01-08.
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All of the contestants of Survivor: Worlds Apart will be spoiled by the cast announcement (~25th of Jan) ( 10% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by mad on 2015-01-07; known on 2015-01-25; judged right by mad on 2015-01-23.
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There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020. ( 63% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-12-03; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Less than 300 people will die of Ebola within the fifty United States by January 1, 2018 —Bryan Caplan ( 88% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2014-10-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by bendini on 2017-11-20.
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I will receive a promotion or get a new job by 2016 ( 75% confidence )
Created by mad on 2014-10-11; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by mad on 2016-04-14.
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Kim Jong-un is reported dead within 100 calendar days. ( 3% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by asd on 2014-09-28; known on 2015-01-06; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-06.
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An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100. ( 57% confidence; 18 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by nshepperd on 2014-09-08; known on 2100-01-01.
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Ebola will be tamed in 3 months ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2014-11-02; judged wrong by mad on 2014-11-02.
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Australia will have legalized same-sex marriage by 2016 in some/all states. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by blubble on 2014-07-25; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by blubble on 2016-01-01.
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I will get a tax refund this year ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mad on 2014-07-08; known on 2014-12-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-07-29.
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I will agree with my mother about my brother's actions in the story he's about to tell me not being weird ( 80% confidence )
Created by mad on 2014-05-12; known on 2014-05-12; judged right by mad on 2014-05-12.
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The next time both me and my boyfriend submit fantasy picks on UFC.com, he will end up with a higher score than me for that round. ( 80% confidence )
Created by mad on 2014-04-23; known on 2015-01-01.
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Spencer will be voted out on this episode of Survivor: Cagayan ( 75% confidence )
Created by mad on 2014-05-01; known on 2014-05-01; judged wrong by mad on 2014-05-01.
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R will submit picks on Fantasy UFC for UFC172 ( 80% confidence )
Created by mad on 2014-04-23; known on 2014-04-27; judged wrong by mad on 2014-04-27.
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I will own a large dog ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by mad on 2014-04-16; known on 2025-01-01; judged right by mad on 2016-04-14.
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After a month, my IUD insertion will have been deemed successful (i.e. it will not have fallen out or caused some sort of medical complication) ( 99% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by mad on 2014-03-05; known on 2014-04-09; judged right by mad on 2014-04-09.
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Richard Walsh will compete in the finale fight for TUF: Nations (Welterweight) ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by mad on 2014-03-24; known on 2014-04-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-04-04.
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The NYT, WSJ, or The Economist will run an article claiming that Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 has been found (intact or not) before 2015. ( 44% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-03-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by mad on 2015-01-03.
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Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 was struck by a meteorite causing rapid disintegration. Alternatively, aircraft lengthening redesign gave way causing rapid disintegration. ( 10% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by refnum on 2014-03-11; known on 2014-04-30; judged wrong by procran on 2014-05-05.
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My IUD will be inserted successfully (i.e. i won't be in so much pain i ask them to stop / the doctor won't screw it up somehow) ( 99% confidence )
Created by mad on 2014-03-05; known on 2014-03-06; judged right by mad on 2014-03-06.
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I will not be feeling aftereffects from my IUD insertion in a month (cramps, bleeding) ( 90% confidence )
Created by mad on 2014-03-05; known on 2014-04-06; judged wrong by mad on 2014-04-07.
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I will not go to the music quiz on Thursday ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by mad on 2014-03-05; known on 2014-03-06; judged right by mad on 2014-03-06.
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I will not go to work on Friday ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mad on 2014-03-05; known on 2014-03-07; judged right by mad on 2014-03-06.
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Woo will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brawn tribe, tae kwon do-er) ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-05-24.
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Trish will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brawn tribe, pilates instructor) ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-05-24.
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Tony will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brawn tribe, cop) ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged right by mad on 2014-05-24.
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Lindsey will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brawn tribe, hairstylist) ( 8% confidence )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-03-31.
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Cliff will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brawn tribe, ex-NBA) ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-03-24.
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Morgan will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (beauty tribe, ex-cheerleader) ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-04-11.
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LJ will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (beauty tribe, bartender) ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-04-22.
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Jeremiah will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (beauty tribe, model) ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-04-27.
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Jefra will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (beauty tribe, pagent girl) ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-05-01.
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Brice will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (beauty tribe, social worker) ( 8% confidence )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-03-06.
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Alexis will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (beauty tribe, college student) ( 4% confidence )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-03-31.
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Spencer will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brains tribe, “the cochran who doesn't suck”) ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-05-25.
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Kass will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brains tribe, attorney) ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-05-25.
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J'Tia Taylor will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brains tribe, nuclear engineer) ( 1% confidence )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-03-19.
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Tasha Fox will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brains tribe, accountant) ( 10% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-05-09.
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Sarah (the cop/MMA fighter on the Brawn tribe) will win Survivor: Cagayan ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-04-04.
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Twitch Plays Pokémon will win the game (become Pokémon Champion) within 48 hours of this prediction. ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2014-02-28; known on 2014-03-02; judged right by mad on 2014-03-01.
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The Beauty tribe will be the first tribe to vote a player off in the Survivor: Cagayan premiere ( 40% confidence )
Created by mad on 2014-02-27; known on 2014-02-28; judged wrong by mad on 2014-02-28.
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Rousey defeats McMann in UFC170 ( 95% confidence )
Created by mad on 2014-02-06; known on 2014-02-24; judged right by mad on 2014-02-23.
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Rousey beats McMann by armbar in UFC170 ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mad on 2014-02-06; known on 2014-02-24; judged wrong by mad on 2014-02-23.
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Rousey beats McMann by first round armbar in UFC 170 ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by mad on 2014-02-06; known on 2014-02-24; judged wrong by mad on 2014-02-23.
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2014 Less Wrong Survey will have < 20% female. ( 89% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by mad on 2015-01-06.
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2014 Less Wrong Survey will have > % female than 2013 Less Wrong Survey. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by mad on 2015-01-06.
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In 2014, there is a mass shooting in USA killing > 10 people. ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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There is a terrorist attack in the USA killing > 100 people. ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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Australia will win TUF:Nations Canada VS Australia (middleweight) ( 38% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by mad on 2014-01-21; known on 2014-12-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-04-11.
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Australia will win TUF:Nations Canada VS Australia (Welterweight) ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by mad on 2014-01-21; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by mad on 2014-04-11.
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Survivor will have an all winners season for season 30 ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mad on 2014-01-21; known on 2015-05-01; judged wrong by mad on 2015-05-01.
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Anderson Silva will announce his retirement from UFC by January 1st, 2016 ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by mad on 2014-01-21; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by mad on 2016-01-02.
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Ronda Rousey will remain the UFC women's bantamweight champion at the end of 2014 ( 90% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mad on 2014-01-21; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by mad on 2015-01-01.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky will remain visibly overweight at the end of 2014. ( 71% confidence; 20 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-21; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by waveman on 2015-01-02.
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I will leave my italian duolingo streak unbroken until at least January 1st, 2015 ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by mad on 2014-01-20; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by mad on 2015-01-01.
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High Court will rule for a re-election of the WA Senate. ( 91% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Merinnan on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-04-01; judged right by mad on 2014-02-20.
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The One Million Dollar Paranormal Challenge prize goes unclaimed. ( 98% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by adbge on 2014-01-02; known on 2015-01-02; judged right by mad on 2015-01-03.
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Tony Abbott will not be the prime minister after the next federal election. ( 62% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by waveman on 2013-12-03; known on 2016-09-09; judged right by waveman on 2015-09-19.
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Barack Obama to attempt to run for a third term as President (either through Constitutional amendment or other method). ( 0% confidence; 41 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-24; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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It will be illegal to drive yourself on Australian public roads ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2013-08-26; known on 2028-08-26.
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The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033. ( 18% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Omid on 2013-08-22; known on 2033-01-01.
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Google will survive for five more years ( 97% confidence; 38 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-05-19; known on 2018-05-19; judged right by NancyLebovitz on 2018-05-19.
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Google Chrome browser will survive 5 years ( 93% confidence; 27 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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In 25 years, infanticide will be legal in at least one U.S. state. ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2013-04-04; known on 2038-04-04.
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In 50 years, pedophilia (defined as no age restrictions on consenting partners) will be legal in at least one U.S. state. ( 1% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2013-04-04; known on 2063-04-04.
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Self-driving cars will be available for sale or lease in most US states within ten years (2022). ( 41% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Aticper on 2012-10-24; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by mad on 2023-01-17.
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“Google's self-driving cars will be available [for purchase at a reasonable price to buy and drive legally] for everyone [the same market that can currently afford to buy a car] within five years” – Sergey Brin ( 16% confidence; 32 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Qiaochu on 2012-10-14; known on 2017-09-26; judged wrong by Tanner on 2017-09-26.
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Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018. ( 48% confidence; 10 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-08; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by elecnix on 2022-12-10.
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Automated driving infrastructure in First World; majority of new cars large/completely automated. —Charles Stross ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.