Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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The movie Prometheus will do better than expected (4 wk gross > 168m @ HSX) ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-25; known on 2012-07-15; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-07-06.
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Shaq will not be Orlando Magic's GM ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-24; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-07-06.
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In Diablo 3 patch 1.0.3, the life on hit/proc coefficient for Fists of Thunder's Thunderclap rune will be reduced. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by tadrinth on 2012-06-14; known on 2012-07-05; judged wrong by tadrinth on 2012-07-05.
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The show “Once Upon a Time” will be canceled within it's first season. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sdenheyer on 2011-10-22; known on 2012-08-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-07-05.
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“EY predicts that no five-sigma evidence of any Higgs boson will appear in the 2014 Review of Particle Physics.” ( 20% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-07-05.
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I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 9 hours. ( 35% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-04; known on 2012-07-04; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-04.
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I will complete chapter 18 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 9 hours. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-04; known on 2012-07-04; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-04.
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I will complete chapter 4 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Statistics within the next 9 hours. ( 100% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-04; known on 2012-07-04; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-04.
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My plane to Shanghai will crash tomorrow ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Christopher on 2012-07-02; known on 2012-07-03; judged wrong by Christopher on 2012-07-03.
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I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 8 hours. ( 15% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03; known on 2012-07-03; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03.
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I will complete chapter 3 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Statistics within the next 8 hours. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03; known on 2012-07-03; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03.
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I will obtain at least one Java certification before the end of June, 30th, 2012. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-20; known on 2012-06-30; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03.
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I will complete Metal Gear Solid: Peace Walker within the next 60 days. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-03; known on 2012-07-02; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03.
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I will read and complete every exercise within Learn Ruby the Hard Way before July 2012. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-25; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03.
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I will complete chapter 17 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 8 hours. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03; known on 2012-07-03; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03.
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I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 20% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-02; known on 2012-07-02; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-02.
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I will complete chapter 16 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-02; known on 2012-07-02; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-02.
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AAPL share prices will reach $500 before July 2012 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sucrenoir on 2011-11-04; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by sucrenoir on 2012-07-02.
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I will complete chapter 2 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Statistics within the next 10 hours. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-02; known on 2012-07-02; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-02.
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I will attend at least 1 Less Wrong meetup between now and 2013. ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-02.
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Spain will win Euro 2012 ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by chimpsky on 2012-06-07; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by chemotaxis101 on 2012-07-02.
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I will have mastered physics to 2nd year Uni of Melbourne level ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by waveman on 2012-02-06; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2012-07-01.
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The SCOTUS ruling on the Obama administration's health care reform law will be a 5-4 decision. ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RobertLumley on 2011-11-15; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-07-01.
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I will be using Emacs in 10 years ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-06-28; known on 2022-06-28; judged right by gwern on 2022-06-29.
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I will be using Emacs in 10 years ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-06-28; known on 2022-06-28; judged right by gwern on 2022-06-29.
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By 1st July 2012, I will have submitted at least 2 technical papers to peer-reviewed journals. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2011-10-09; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2012-07-01.
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GJP: #1040 Will Aleksandr Lukashenko remain president of Belarus through 30 June 2012? ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-07-01.
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“USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before midnight ET 30 Jun 2012” —Intrade ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-07-01.
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The new exchange student from Sweden will last out the full school year. ( 75% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-01; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-07-01.
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App Store revenues will break $10,000 for the first 30 days after app launch. ( 10% confidence )
Created by gsaines on 2012-05-16; known on 2012-06-26; judged right by gsaines on 2012-07-01.
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The Skritter app will have launched in the app store with a subscription payment model. ( 75% confidence )
Created by gsaines on 2012-03-11; known on 2012-04-15; judged wrong by gsaines on 2012-07-01.
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I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 9 hours. ( 30% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-01; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-01.
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I will complete chapter 16 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 9 hours. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-01; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-01.
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Greece will leave the Euro currency and return to the “Drachme” latest by mid 2012. ( 20% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by herb on 2011-11-29; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by Michael Stevens on 2012-07-01.
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Kerala High Court hears a PIL against India's IT rules. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-06; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-07-01.
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I will complete chapter 1 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Statistics within the next 9 hours. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-01; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-01.
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The honorarium I’ll receive for an hour long talk to be given tomorrow will be more than 126 USD in total value (i.e., including travel reimbursements, food, etc.) ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by papermachine on 2012-06-29; known on 2012-06-30; judged right by papermachine on 2012-06-30.
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The honorarium I'll receive for an hour long talk to be given tomorrow will be between 75 and 125 USD in total value (i.e., including travel reimbursements, food, etc.) ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by papermachine on 2012-06-29; known on 2012-06-30; judged wrong by papermachine on 2012-06-30.
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“United States to conduct overt military action against North Korea before midnight ET on 30 Jun 2012” —Intrade ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-06-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-06-30.
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My Anki flashcard deck will exceed 3,000 cards before July, 2012. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-22; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-30.
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England will win Euro 2012 ( 6% confidence )
Created by chimpsky on 2012-06-07; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by ArisKatsaris on 2012-06-29.
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Holland will win Euro 2012 ( 12% confidence )
Created by chimpsky on 2012-06-07; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by ArisKatsaris on 2012-06-29.
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Germany will win Euro 2012 ( 18% confidence )
Created by chimpsky on 2012-06-07; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by ArisKatsaris on 2012-06-29.
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“The Supreme Court will uphold ObamaCare” —jdgalt ( 66% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-05-30; judged right by RobertLumley on 2012-06-28.
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I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-27; known on 2012-06-27; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-28.
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I will read chapter V of GEB within the next 10 hours. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-27; known on 2012-06-27; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-28.
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For all x, if x is a comment in response to Luke's 'NEW GAME' comment and x contains at least 1 correct answer, then x will have positive karma at the prediction closing time. ( 80% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-19; known on 2012-06-26; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-27.
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I will unsubscribe from Erfworld. ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-27; known on 2012-07-27; judged right by gwern on 2012-06-26.
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I will complete chapter 18 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 5% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-25; known on 2012-06-25; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-25.
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I will complete chapter 17 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 30% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-25; known on 2012-06-25; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-25.