Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 43% | 33% | 63% | 79% | 91% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 7 | 6 | 19 | 14 | 11 | 1 | 58 |
Displaying all predictions made by tstelzig. Filter by:
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[Personal] Climbing will still be my primary form of exercise by 2020 (continuous between 2016 and 2020). ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sungk2048 on 2016-07-25; known on 2020-01-16; judged right by sungk2048 on 2020-01-18.
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[I will have finished the deep learning course by] June 3 ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-20; known on 2018-06-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-06-08.
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I will run >2500 miles in 2017 ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by tstelzig on 2017-01-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by tstelzig on 2018-03-05.
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Gary Johnson will poll above 15% in five national polls. ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-24; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Trump wins the presidential election 2016 ( 34% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by qznc on 2016-07-04; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
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I will read and review at least 30 books in 2016. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by tstelzig on 2016-01-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by tstelzig on 2017-01-04.
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Star Wars: The Force Awakens will gross above 2.8 Billion USD globally ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-04; known on 2016-06-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-07-06.
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2016 predictions: GiveWell will add a charity to their recommendations that is not on the current list (AMF, SCI, Deworm the World, GiveDirectly). ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-29.
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Global thermonuclear war, worldwide by Jan 1, 2016 ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-11; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
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Craig S. Wright will not (in the next year) demonstrate possession of the key with fingerprint DE4E FCA3 E1AB 9E41 CE96 CECB 18C0 9E86 5EC9 48A1, nor of any other key or bitcoin convincingly belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto. ( 82% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by James Babcock on 2015-12-09; known on 2016-12-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-09.
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The New York times will report it confirmed that Craig Wright is Satoshi Nakamoto by 2016-12-31 ( 18% confidence; 13 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by solipsist on 2015-12-09; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by solipsist on 2016-12-31.
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By 2025, proven that there exist infinitely many primes p and q with |p-q| < 200. ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-30; known on 2025-01-01.
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Ronda Rousey will win her Nov. 14 fight with Holly Holm. ( 74% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-03; known on 2015-11-15; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-11-15.
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Somebody will run a World Record at the 2015 Berlin Marathon (as has happened 3 of the last 4, and 5 of the last 8 years). ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by tstelzig on 2015-09-26; known on 2015-09-27; judged wrong by tstelzig on 2015-09-30.
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Matt Llano will break 2:10 at the Berlin Marathon this Sunday (like he says he will). ( 15% confidence )
Created by tstelzig on 2015-09-26; known on 2015-09-27; judged wrong by tstelzig on 2015-09-30.
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Kanye West elected President by 2032 — Scott Adams ( 0% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2015-09-23; known on 2032-11-10.
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Faster-than-light communication developed before 2050 ( 1% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.
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Time travel developed before 2050 ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.
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Lia will finish the ATT 10 miler in less than 68 minutes ( 15% confidence )
Created by tstelzig on 2015-09-16; known on 2015-10-26.
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“By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.” ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-25; known on 2033-03-25.