Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Bolsonaro manterá o mandato presidencial até o final do período para o qual foi eleito. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2019-03-28; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by chemotaxis101 on 2023-01-01.
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It is legal and possible to anonymously buy recreational Cannabis in Germany by December 31 2022 (at least one actual legal shop/seller, can be online) ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by M on 2021-11-30; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by M on 2023-01-01.
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The Yellowstone Supervolcano will have a magmatic eruption before 2023 ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-27; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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I will weigh an average of 67 kg in the last quarter of 2022. Currently 74.4kg ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2022-01-01; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2022-12-31.
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I will complete studying general relativity to my satisfaction by end 2022. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2022-01-01; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2022-12-31.
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I will start studying quantum field theory by end 2022 ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2022-01-01; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2022-12-31.
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I will have at least 50 followers on Mastodon by December 31. ( 25% confidence )
Created by danielfilan on 2022-11-18; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2022-12-31.
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60% of the worlds combustion engines will run on Biofuels by the end of 2022 ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-12-31.
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Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022 ( 6% confidence; 20 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by raavin on 2010-11-18; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-12-31.
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PE; shock ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by reblocke on 2022-12-26; known on 2022-12-26; judged wrong by reblocke on 2022-12-26.
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SBF extradited from the Bahamas to the US ( 91% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-14; known on 2025-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-23.
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Elon Musk steps down as CEO of Twitter ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-19; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-31.
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Elon Musk steps down as CEO of Twitter ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-19; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-31.
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'Avatar: The Way of Water' will domestically gross more than $175 million on its opening weekend (Dec 16-18) ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-12-01; known on 2022-12-19; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-12-19.
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Zhongguo will be a high income country by 2022 ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-28; known on 2022-12-12; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-18.
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Twitter will be online on the 15th of December 2022. On that date, I will be able to post a tweet and other people will be able to see it. ( 89% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2022-11-18; known on 2022-12-15; judged right by danielfilan on 2022-12-15.
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The climate book will contain 1 sentence devoted to how challeging it will be to solve how we produce reliable electrical energy. ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ElliotDavies on 2022-10-29; known on 2022-11-05; judged wrong by ElliotDavies on 2022-12-15.
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Lula will not name a liberal Treasure secretary ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by DanCoimbra on 2022-11-08; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by DanCoimbra on 2022-12-13.
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Sam Bankman-Fried will be arrested before January 1, 2024, on charges related to the (as of 2022-11-10) liquidity crunch at FTX. ( 51% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pmberg on 2022-11-10; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-13.
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Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018. ( 48% confidence; 10 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-08; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by elecnix on 2022-12-10.
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CME Group will claim the video of their CEO stating that he bribed a CFTC regulator was digitally manipulated. ( 19% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-26; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-07.
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PRC ends Zero-Covid Policy ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-27; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-07.
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I get a job offer from Reddit ( 30% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-22; known on 2020-09-22; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2022-12-05.
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Reddit gives me an interview ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-22; known on 2020-08-12; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2022-12-05.
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A team signs Antonio Brown | football season not cancelled ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-31; known on 2020-12-16; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2022-12-05.
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At least 120 people will apply for Effective Altruism @ GT's Spring 2022 seminar programs ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-01-13; known on 2022-02-05; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-12-05.
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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2021. ( 46% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-09; known on 2022-06-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-12-05.
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New lettered variant of covid announced by February 20th, 2022. ( 21% confidence; 20 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-16; known on 2022-03-05; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-12-05.
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I will meet Miss Piano in person again. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav on 2022-11-22; known on 2023-06-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-12-04.
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I will run semi-supervised Cityscapes-Vistas experiments by 2022-12-2, 20:30. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Ivan on 2022-11-26; known on 2022-12-02; judged wrong by Ivan on 2022-12-04.
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I will test negative for covid the morning of 12/2 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by dmz on 2022-12-01; known on 2022-12-02; judged right by dmz on 2022-12-02.
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I will test negative for covid around noon on 12/1 ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by dmz on 2022-11-30; known on 2022-12-01; judged wrong by dmz on 2022-12-01.
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I will test negative for covid the morning of 11/30 ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by dmz on 2022-11-29; known on 2022-11-30; judged wrong by dmz on 2022-11-30.
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I'm about to test negative for covid ( 25% confidence )
Created by dmz on 2022-11-29; known on 2022-11-29; judged wrong by dmz on 2022-11-29.
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in december 2021, I'll be above 1150 since 2 consecutive months in my elo chess rating ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Amaru on 2020-12-24; known on 2021-10-16; judged wrong by Amaru on 2022-11-29.
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I have covid ( 60% confidence )
Created by dmz on 2022-11-20; known on 2022-12-01; judged right by dmz on 2022-11-26.
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I will be at the airport by 5:17 am. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by danielfilan on 2022-11-26; known on 2022-11-26; judged right by danielfilan on 2022-11-26.
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Hikvision sanctioned by US Government ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-06-05; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-26.
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Conditioned on me visiting family for Thanksgiving, we will talk about the FTX scandal. ( 65% confidence )
Created by danielfilan on 2022-11-19; known on 2022-11-25; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2022-11-25.
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I will run Fishyscapes evaluation by 2022-11-24, 21:00 ( 75% confidence )
Created by Ivan on 2022-11-23; known on 2022-11-24; judged wrong by Ivan on 2022-11-24.
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Miss Piano answers my ping text. ( 45% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2022-11-22; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-11-22.
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Jean-Luc Mélenchon will not become premier ministre of France in 2022. ( 82% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Tot on 2022-05-13; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Tot on 2022-11-21.
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Ilan Goldfajn will be elected president of the Interamerican Bank of Development (BID in Portuguese). ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by DanCoimbra on 2022-11-12; known on 2022-11-21; judged right by chemotaxis101 on 2022-11-21.
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Miss Sheep will reply to my feeler text ( 55% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2022-11-21; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-11-21.
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Miss Pink Panther will reply to my feeler text ( 60% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2022-11-21; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-11-21.
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Miss Checkers will reply to my feeler text ( 80% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2022-11-21; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-11-21.
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I will not regret going to the 20 Books to 50k conference in Vegas ( 70% confidence )
Created by kadavy on 2022-10-21; known on 2022-11-19; judged right by kadavy on 2022-11-20.
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Elizabeth Holmes to be sentenced to 4 to 12 years in prison. ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-11-13; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-11-19.
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In 5 years programmers will be expected to write formally proven programs to the same or more extent as they're expected to write tests today ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jach on 2017-11-17; known on 2022-11-17; judged wrong by crabman on 2022-11-17.
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Steven will not like you back on hinge ( 99% confidence )
Created by chris.walton113@gmail.com on 2022-10-26; known on 2022-11-09; judged right by chris.walton113@gmail.com on 2022-11-17.