Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 50% | 88% | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 2 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 1 | 35 |
Displaying all predictions made by orthonormal. Filter by:
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The Navier-Stokes Millennium prize will be awarded before 2020-01-01 ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-05-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-01-01.
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Raccoons will show up between 8/20/2015 and 8/27/2015 and destroy more of my water lilies. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ialdabaoth on 2015-08-21; known on 2015-08-28.
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Gathering/absorbing Hawking radiation and generating a net surplus of useful energy (not counting what you feed into the black hole) would violate the Second Law of Thermodynamics. ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by orthonormal on 2015-08-18; known on 2016-01-01.
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Rand Paul will be the Republican Nominee for President for the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Season ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Faceh on 2015-01-25; known on 2016-07-21; judged wrong by Faceh on 2016-05-03.
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Apple will buy Tesla by 2020 ( 17% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ira on 2015-06-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-01-02.
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Ebola will kill fewer people in second half of 2015 than the in first half. ( 91% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02.
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US will not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers before 2016. ( 76% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2016-01-02.
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Bernie Sanders to still be in the race by March 8th, 2016 ( 77% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-06; known on 2016-03-08; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-08.
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Both the Democrats and the Republicans will each have at least 160 seats in the 115th House of Representatives ( 85% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-02; known on 2016-11-12; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ( 29% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-25; known on 2025-01-01.
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If M is any irreducible stationary Markov chain on the set of computable permutations of the natural numbers, then M is transient. ( 89% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by orthonormal on 2015-05-30; known on 2015-06-01; judged right by orthonormal on 2015-06-01.
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The Patriot Act will lapse at midnight tonight. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by orthonormal on 2015-06-01; known on 2015-06-01; judged right by orthonormal on 2015-06-01.
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There will be at least two Democratic Presidential primary debates for the next US Presidential election. ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-26; known on 2016-07-25; judged right by Jenson on 2016-07-14.
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US official unemployment rate to remain between 3% and 7.5% through January 1, 2020. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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In both the 2016 and 2018 US elections, neither party will get a filibuster proof majority. ( 71% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-25; known on 2018-11-20; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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MealSquares will have a vegan option available by this time next year ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-24; known on 2016-05-25; judged wrong by Temeraire on 2016-06-05.
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Hillary Clinton to withdraw from the US presidential election by March 17th, 2016, and Martin O'Malley to be the Democratic nominee. ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-23; known on 2016-03-17; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-17.
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Democrat to win popular vote in 2016 with at least 57% of the popular vote. ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-20; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Slatestarcodex will publish a reply to Ozy's piece within the next two weeks. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-20; known on 2015-06-04; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-06-04.
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Both the Republicans and the Democrats to each have at least 34 US Senators after the 2016 election ( 91% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-20; known on 2016-11-12; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Domestic per capita water use in the US will increase from 2010 to 2015 as reported by the USGS ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-05-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by orthonormal on 2019-12-31.
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Channel Tunnel is longer than the circumference of the Large Hadron Collider. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by orthonormal on 2015-05-16; known on 2015-05-17; judged right by orthonormal on 2015-05-21.
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Bernie Sanders to win the Democratic nomination. ( 18% confidence; 66 wagers; 38 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-02; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-10.
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Justice Scalia votes to overturn Obergefell v. Hodges, in such a way that same-sex marriages can be performed in every U.S. state. ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by orthonormal on 2015-04-28; known on 2015-08-01; judged wrong by orthonormal on 2015-06-27.
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Obergefell v. Hodges overturned by the Supreme Court, in such a way that same-sex marriages can be legally performed in every U.S. state. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by orthonormal on 2015-04-28; known on 2015-08-01; judged right by orthonormal on 2015-06-27.
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Hillary Clinton will be the next president elect. ( 62% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-26; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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One of the next 5 years, the total population will be lower at the end of the year than the start of the year. ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-21; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-19.
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Tesla motors' next product release will be a home battery ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OisinMoran on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-04-30; judged right by OisinMoran on 2015-05-01.
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The next president elect will be a member of the democratic party. ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-09; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Nate will have “expanding the MIRI researcher team” as one of his first priorities for at least one month in the first four months of 2015 ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by So8res on 2014-11-17; known on 2015-05-01.
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World population to drop for at least one of the next 10 years. (2015,2016, 2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024). ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-10; known on 2025-02-02.
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King v. Burwell is decided for the government. ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-08-01; judged right by David on 2015-06-25.
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Either Scott Walker or Jeb Bush win the GOP nomination ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-03-01; known on 2016-07-21; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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Greece, will still have the Euro at the end of 2016 ( 66% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Chri on 2015-01-26; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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Hendo Hoverboards indeed delivers working hoverboards by the end of the year 2015. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by orthonormal on 2014-11-01; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by orthonormal on 2019-12-31.
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The Botworld paper will cause someone from IDSIA to express some opinion about AIXItl working in only restricted environments, which that person from IDSIA says they did not possess before reading about Botworld, or the update is apparent from their previ ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by yudkowsky@gmail.com on 2014-05-04; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by orthonormal on 2015-01-15.
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Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality reaches a conclusion (not counting chapters explicitly denoted as Epilogues) before the end of 2014 and also before Homestuck finishes Act 7 (not counting “Psyche” fake-endings). ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by orthonormal on 2014-01-22; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by orthonormal on 2015-01-15.
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I'll cause at least five people to start using Prediction Book by the end of today. ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by briennestrohl on 2014-01-21; known on 2014-01-22; judged right by briennestrohl on 2014-01-22.
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USA to begin phase-out of pennies by start of 2016. ( 12% confidence; 30 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-13; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-01-01.