Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 58% | 60% | 85% | 93% | 100% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 142 | 326 | 108 | 67 | 74 | 3 | 720 |
Displaying all predictions made by RandomThinker. Filter by:
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The Bush tax cuts will be extended for under-100k single earners before they expire. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by banx on 2012-11-27; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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GB/$ of Flash/SSD=hard-drives in or by 2016 —William Hertling ( 33% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-11-26; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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“I estimate there is a 79.4357 percent probability that Susan Rice will be confirmed early next year as secretary of State, and the vote won’t even be close.” —John Heilemann, NY Magazine ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-25; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-02-24.
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Gangnam Style to reach 1,000,000,000 views by December 21st 2012. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bZkp7q19f0 ( 53% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Sarokrae on 2012-11-25; known on 2012-12-21; judged right by army1987 on 2012-12-21.
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War won't happen between China and Usa before June 2030 ( 66% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by randomlurker13 on 2012-11-25; known on 2030-06-01.
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Apple will hit 450 by February 2013. ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by andrevan on 2012-11-24; known on 2013-02-15; judged right by andrevan on 2013-02-15.
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Mars rover SAM instrument discovers live microorganisms in Martian soil. ( 11% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-20; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Samm on 2013-04-26.
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NFL: Chicago Bears will beat San Francisco 49ers in Week 11 of the 2012 Season ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by dwibby on 2012-11-16; known on 2012-11-20; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-20.
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NFL: Baltimore Ravens will beat Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 11 of the 2012 Season ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by dwibby on 2012-11-16; known on 2012-11-19; judged right by dwibby on 2012-11-19.
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NFL: Denver Broncos will beat San Diego Chargers in Week 11 of the 2012 Season ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by dwibby on 2012-11-16; known on 2012-11-19; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-19.
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NFL: New England Patriots will beat Indianapolis Colts in Week 11 of the 2012 Season ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dwibby on 2012-11-16; known on 2012-11-19; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-19.
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NFL: New Orleans Saints will beat Oakland Raiders in Week 11 of the 2012 Season ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by dwibby on 2012-11-16; known on 2012-11-19; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-19.
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NFL: Dallas Cowboys will beat Cleveland Browns in Week 11 of the 2012 Season ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by dwibby on 2012-11-16; known on 2012-11-18; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-19.
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NFL: Cincinnati Bengals will beat Kansas City Chiefs in Week 11 of the 2012 Season ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by dwibby on 2012-11-16; known on 2012-11-18; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-19.
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NFL: Green Bay Packers will beat Detroit Lions in Week 11 of the 2012 Season ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by dwibby on 2012-11-16; known on 2012-11-18; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-19.
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NFL: Houston Texans will beat Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 11 of the 2012 Season ( 90% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by dwibby on 2012-11-16; known on 2012-11-18; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-19.
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NFL: Washington Redskins will beat Philidelphia Eagles in Week 11 of the 2012 Season ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by dwibby on 2012-11-16; known on 2012-11-18; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-19.
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NFL: Tampa Bay Buccaneers will beat Carolina Panthers in Week 11 of the 2012 Season ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by dwibby on 2012-11-16; known on 2012-11-18; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-19.
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NFL: Atlanta Falcons will beat Arizona Cardinals in Week 11 of the 2012 Season ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by dwibby on 2012-11-16; known on 2012-11-18; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-19.
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St. Louis Rams will beat New York Jets in Week 11 of the 2012 NFL Season ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by dwibby on 2012-11-16; known on 2012-11-18; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-19.
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NFL: Miami will cover against Buffalo on 11/15 (Buffalo favored by 1). ( 59% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-16; known on 2012-11-16; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-16.
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NFL: Tebow will be gone from the NY Jets before 2013 NFL season ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-14; known on 2013-09-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-10-03.
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It'll be reported that FBI didn't get a search warrant to access Broadwell's gmail account ( 65% confidence; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2015-01-11.
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There'll be a popular Android tablet sold for less than $50 (as standard pricing) before 2015 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-12; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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IEA: By 2035, Iraq's output rate will rise to more than 8 million barrels [per day], overtaking Russia to become the world’s second-largest exporter. ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-12; known on 2035-12-31.
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IEA: US to overtake Russia as the leading producer of natural gas in 2015. ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-12; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2015-01-21.
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IEA: US to become net oil exporter by 2030 ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-12; known on 2030-01-01.
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IEA: US to become world's top oil producer in 5 years ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-12; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2015-05-11.
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The Lakers defense ranks 18th in the NBA. At the end of the season, they will rank between 10-20 according to http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/LAL/2013.html. ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by fistpo on 2012-11-12; known on 2019-04-13.
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Obama's approval rating will exceed 55% on average for the next 12 months (Nov 12 -> Nov 13) ( 46% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-12; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-16.
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In the 2014 election, someone will make a serious run for Congress, Senate or Governor as a secessionist ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-09; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-12-01.
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Mike D'Antoni is more likely to be the Lakers coach than Phil Jackson in 2012 NBA season ( 55% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-09; known on 2013-06-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-12.
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By 2020, Puerto Rico will be admitted to the Union ( 39% confidence; 18 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Tori Dykes' tweet (https://twitter.com/toridykes/status/266032621690171392) will not reach 2,000 RTs by Sunday. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by alecbrooks on 2012-11-09; known on 2012-11-11; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-11-11.
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The Democratic candidate takes Georgia in 2016 ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-09; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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The Democratic candidate takes North Carolina in 2016. ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-09; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Apple will still use intel CPUs in Macs in 2016 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-09; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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NFL: The Colts will beat the Jaguars on Nov 8 by more than 3 (the line). ( 59% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-09; known on 2012-11-09; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-09.
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Obama's not going to officially approve of the legalization of pot in Colorado and Washington ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-08; known on 2013-12-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-08-29.
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Nate Silver will become a public expert on climate change statistics by the year 2016 ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-08; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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John Kerry is more likely to be Secretary of State than Susan Rice ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-06; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-01-30.
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There'll be less gridlock in Obama's second term vs. the first term (measured by total number of filibusters) ( 53% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07; known on 2016-12-31.
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The 2016 presidential election will be Jeb Bush v. Hillary Clinton. Yes, again! ( 14% confidence; 27 wagers; 16 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07; known on 2016-11-30; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-02-21.
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Romney will publicly embrace Romneycare before end of Obama term ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07; known on 2016-12-31.
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Romney won't be top 3 in 2016 Iowa causes ( 87% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07; known on 2016-06-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-10.
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Chris Christie is not going to be within top 3 in Iowa causes in 2016 ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07; known on 2016-05-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2016-02-02.
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After a period of cognitive dissonance, a sizable part of the press will start referring to the US as a “center-left” country during the Obama term. ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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The US economy will be “worse” in 2016 than in 2012 (i.e. both R and D Presidential candidates will say the economy is worse) ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jach on 2012-11-07; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by Jach on 2017-01-03.
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Assuming Romney wins, conservatives will become upset with him prior to the end of his term(s) ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-29; known on 2020-12-31.
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Romney will cooperate with Obama on some political initiative in 2013 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2014-07-07.
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The TV networks will call the election (for one or the other candidate) before midnight pacific time. ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-06; known on 2013-11-07; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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New York Knicks #2 ranked offense and defense will both fall out of the top ten by the end of January, according to basketball-reference (http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/NYK/2013.html). ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 21 comments )
Created by fistpo on 2012-11-06; known on 2013-02-01; judged wrong by fistpo on 2013-02-01.
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Jonathan Ives will be viewed as a flop as iphone, ipad head (as judged by hindsight in 2016) ( 65% confidence )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-06; known on 2016-12-31.
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Larry Summers won't be Fed Chairman in 2014 ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-06; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2014-12-18.
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Valerie Jarett will not be White House Chief of Staff ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-06; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-06-02.
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Assuming dems hold Senate in 2012, republicans retake Senate in 2014 mid term elections ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-06; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by kuudes on 2014-11-05.
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At least one major broadcaster will have to retract its calling a state for a particular candidate within a week after the election tomorrow. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-06; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-27.
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David Axelrod will not shave his mustache within a month. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-05; known on 2012-12-07; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-02-24.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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New Star Wars movie will be better than Phantom Menace and Attack of the Clones ( 70% confidence; 20 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-02; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-12-28.
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New Star Wars movie out before end of 2015 ( 71% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-02; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by kuudes on 2015-12-16.
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Google will close above $800 before Apple. ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-01; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-04-08.
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Gene Munster: Apple will sell 1-1.5 million iPad Minis this weekend (compared with 3 million 3rd Gen iPads sold in its launch weekend in March). ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-02; known on 2012-11-30; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-12.
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Reed Hastings will not be CEO of Netflix by 2015 ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-01; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2015-01-11.
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Summly, news summary app created by 16 yr old, will be a flop (as judged in Jan 2015) ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-01; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-03-25.
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If Obama wins, then before end of his term, Fox News will have one of the top 3 liberal news shows. ( 65% confidence; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-01; known on 2016-12-31.
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Wang Yang will not be appointed to the Politburo Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China. ( 52% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by abc123456 on 2012-11-01; known on 2012-11-16; judged right by abc123456 on 2012-11-15.
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Li Keqiang will be appointed the next Premier of the State Council of China. ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by abc123456 on 2012-11-01; known on 2012-11-16; judged right by abc123456 on 2012-11-15.
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Xi Jinping will be apppointed the next chairman of the Communist Party of China. ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by abc123456 on 2012-11-01; known on 2012-11-16; judged right by abc123456 on 2012-11-15.
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In at least one state Obama wins in 2012, Gary Johnson will win a number of votes greater than the margin by which Obama defeats Romney in that state. ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-30; known on 2012-12-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-27.
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Marijuana legalization will be a significant issue in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. ( 33% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-30; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Rossi's energy black box actually harnesses a third type of nuclear reaction ( 4% confidence; 10 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-30; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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The NYC subway will remain fully closed for all of Tuesday. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gusl on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-10-31; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-02.
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The broken crane hanging above NYC will not fall during hurricane Sandy. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-11-01; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-02.
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Lebron James will average a triple double in an NBA season during his career ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-29; known on 2022-01-01.
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Romney will win Iowa ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-12-08; judged wrong by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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Obama will win Colorado ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-12-08; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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Romney will win Florida ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-11-08; judged wrong by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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Obama will win Ohio ( 73% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-11-08; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ( 14% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-29; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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The death toll from hurricane Sandy will be lower than that from Katrina. ( 88% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Matt on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-11-29; judged right by Matt on 2012-11-29.
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Regardless of who wins the election, there'll be a major “debt deal” before mid 2013 ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-28; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-06-09.
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Mitt Romney will win the popular vote in the 2012 US election ( 37% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-26; known on 2012-11-10; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-08.
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Apple will reduce price of iPad Mini below $300 by 12/31/2013 ( 55% confidence; 9 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-26; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
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By 2025, at least one major world city will have a restaurant featuring 3D printed food. ( 69% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-25; known on 2025-01-01; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2015-03-23.
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A neuron-level computational model of a specific human brain will be implemented successfully within 20 years (2032). ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Aticper on 2012-10-24; known on 2032-12-31.
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Assuming Obama wins second term, Bernanke will continue as Fed chairman ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-24; known on 2014-02-15; judged wrong by dk on 2014-03-23.
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Assuming Obama wins second term, Tim Geithner won't continue as treasury secretary ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-24; known on 2013-06-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-06-15.
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Donald Trump won't pay out on his $5m offer to Obama to release educational transcripts ( 80% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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Assuming Obama wins second term, repubs will try to impeach him sometime during the his second term ( 11% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-24; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Grantland: Durant will hit 50-40-90 club in NBA 2012-13 season ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-24; known on 2013-07-01; judged right by fistpo on 2013-07-05.
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Self-driving cars will be available for sale or lease in most US states within ten years (2022). ( 41% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Aticper on 2012-10-24; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by mad on 2023-01-17.
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Within three years (2015), a AAA level gaming title (with professional voice acting, at least Xbox 360 level graphics, and a multimillion dollar budget) will be released for a mobile (smart phone) platform. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Aticper on 2012-10-24; known on 2017-12-31.
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Within five years (2017), motion-controlled augmented reality headsets will be widespread in the consumer market, selling millions of units and beginning to overtake multitouch screens as the primary mode of mobile computer interaction. ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Aticper on 2012-10-24; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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By the end of 2014, the market for virtual reality headsets will exceed a million units. ( 23% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Aticper on 2012-10-24; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.
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By 2017, photo-realistic gaming experiences will be possible on high-end PC hardware. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Aticper on 2012-10-24; known on 2017-12-31.
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There will be 2 or more Gangnam style touchdown celebrations in the NFL next week (10/25 to 10/29) ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-22; known on 2012-10-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-10-30.
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Lance Armstrong will lose a large portion of his commercial sponsors by end of 2014 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-25; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-10-22.
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There are at least 4 false things reported as “rumors” in this ValueWalk article about the iPad Mini, starting with the $329 price ( 65% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-22; known on 2012-10-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-10-23.
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By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ( 26% confidence; 15 wagers; 25 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-21; known on 2060-01-01.