Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 50% | 0% | 100% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
Displaying all predictions made by SPL. Filter by:
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Snowden turns himself in to US authorities before 2016 ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by phreeza on 2013-07-02; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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Snowden arrested by US authorities before 2014 ( 24% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2013-06-23; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-12-31.
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Joseph will get another paper accepted in Annals/Inventiones/P.IHES in 2013 ( 70% confidence )
Created by SPL on 2013-01-02; known on 2013-12-31.
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Berlusconi will be Italy's next premier ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2012-12-10; known on 2013-04-01; judged wrong by phreeza on 2013-04-01.