Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 11 |
Displaying all predictions made by holomanga. Filter by:
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Donald Trump will NOT be re-elected ( 55% confidence; 26 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by tcsmithbiz@yahoo.com on 2019-12-23; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2020-11-07.
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Pete Buttigieg will win the Democratic Nomination ( 14% confidence; 18 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by tcsmithbiz@yahoo.com on 2019-12-23; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-09-06.
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Pete Buttigieg will win the democratic primary ( 17% confidence; 18 wagers )
Created by skuthus on 2019-11-27; known on 2020-06-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-17.
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Connor Leahy will publicly released his GPT-2-1.5b model by the end of July 2019. ( 62% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2019-06-06; known on 2019-08-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2019-06-13.
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Trump wins a second term in office ( 48% confidence; 29 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-06-05; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by avi on 2020-11-07.
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[Commodities] As of June 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of May 2019 ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2019-06-12; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-12.
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Living thylacine specimen to be confirmed in 2019 ( 3% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-11; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.
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I am sure that the world will not end in next 50 years. ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dr.ace07 on 2015-11-17; known on 2065-11-18; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-17.