Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 0% | 75% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 12 |
Displaying all predictions made by Kaj_Sotala. Filter by:
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A different cryptocurrency beats Bitcoin in market cap at some point during the year. ( 7% confidence; 31 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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A virtual reality headset (Oculus Rift-esque) sells more than a million units within the next 5 years. ( 85% confidence; 23 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by adbge on 2013-12-26; known on 2018-12-26; judged right by bendini on 2017-06-05.
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“Bitcoin will trade for under $10 a share by the first half of 2014.” — Mark T. Williams (http://www.businessinsider.com/williams-bitcoin-meltdown-10-2013-12) ( 5% confidence; 21 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2013-12-18; known on 2014-07-01; judged wrong by clemux on 2014-07-01.
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There'll be a major virus/spyware story in the next 10 years that's primarily focused on theft of commercial information (financial, passwords, blackmail) ( 78% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-14; known on 2022-12-31; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-21.
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Scott Siskind will stil be an atheist by 2014. ( 96% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Kaj_Sotala on 2012-08-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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LessWrong user XiXiDu or a XiXiDu sockpuppet will post a comment or article to lesswrong.com before 2018 ( 89% confidence; 12 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-06-03; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-09-04.
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I will be able to earn a reliable living off writing and possible start-ups that I'm involved in by the end of 2013. ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Kaj_Sotala on 2011-10-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Kaj_Sotala on 2014-01-01.
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I will have completed a Master of Science degree in Computer Science by the end of 2013. ( 47% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Kaj_Sotala on 2011-10-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Kaj_Sotala on 2013-12-17.
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By 2012-10-01, I will have written a book of fiction that has at least 50,000 words and has been read by at least 50 people. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Kaj_Sotala on 2011-10-08; known on 2012-10-01; judged wrong by Kaj_Sotala on 2012-10-01.
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Andrea Rossi's 1 MW plant based on his energy catalyzer invention will not succeed within a year. ( 96% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Kaj_Sotala on 2011-10-08; known on 2012-10-08; judged right by gwern on 2012-10-08.
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“I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.” ( 9% confidence; 26 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.