Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 49% | 57% | 65% | 86% | 94% | 89% | |
Sample Size | 241 | 286 | 236 | 287 | 552 | 46 | 1648 |
Displaying all predictions made by pranomostro. Filter by:
-
[US Democratic primary: Alaska winner to be] any other candidate ( 5% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-13.
-
[US Democratic primary: Alaska winner to be] Amy Klobuchar ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-13.
-
[US Democratic primary: Alaska winner to be] Julian Castro ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-13.
-
[US Democratic primary: Alaska winner to be] Beto O'Rourke ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-13.
-
[US Democratic primary: Alaska winner to be] Cory Booker ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-13.
-
[US Democratic primary: Alaska winner to be] Pete Buttigieg ( 11% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-13.
-
[US Democratic primary: Alaska winner to be] Kamala Harris ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-13.
-
[US Democratic primary: Alaska winner to be] Andrew Yang ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-13.
-
[US Democratic primary: Alaska winner to be] Bernie Sanders ( 30% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-13.
-
[US Democratic primary: Alaska winner to be] Elizabeth Warren ( 20% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-13.
-
[US Democratic primary: Alaska winner to be] Joe Biden ( 25% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-05; judged right by Cato on 2020-04-13.
-
[US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] any other candidate ( 5% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-25; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
-
[US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] Julian Castro ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-25; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
-
[US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] Amy Klobuchar ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-25; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
-
[US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] Beto O'Rourke ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-25; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
-
[US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] Cory Booker ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-25; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
-
[US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] Pete Buttigieg ( 9% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-25; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
-
[US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] Kamala Harris ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-25; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
-
[US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] Andrew Yang ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-25; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
-
[US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] Bernie Sanders ( 14% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-25; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
-
[US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] Elizabeth Warren ( 17% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-25; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
-
[US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] Joe Biden ( 40% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-25; judged right by Cato on 2020-06-11.
-
[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] any other candidate ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-18.
-
[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Amy Klobuchar ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-18.
-
[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Julian Castro ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-18.
-
[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Beto O'Rourke ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-18.
-
[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Cory Booker ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-18.
-
[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Pete Buttigieg ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-18.
-
[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Kamala Harris ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-18.
-
[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Andrew Yang ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-18.
-
[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Bernie Sanders ( 15% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-18.
-
[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Elizabeth Warren ( 18% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-18.
-
[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Joe Biden ( 37% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-18; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-18.
-
[US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] any other candidate ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-11.
-
[US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] Julian Castro ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-11.
-
[US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] Amy Klobuchar ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-11.
-
[US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] Pete Buttigieg ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-11.
-
[US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] Cory Booker ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-11.
-
[US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] Beto O'Rourke ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-11.
-
[US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] Kamala Harris ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-11.
-
[US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] Andrew Yang ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-11.
-
[US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] Bernie Sanders ( 23% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-11.
-
[US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] Elizabeth Warren ( 19% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-11.
-
[US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] Joe Biden ( 35% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-11; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-11.
-
[US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] any other candidate ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-02; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
-
[US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] Amy Klobuchar ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-02; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
-
[US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] Julian Castro ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-02; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
-
[US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] Beto O'Rourke ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-02; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
-
[US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] Cory Booker ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-02; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
-
[US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] Pete Buttigieg ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-02; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
-
[US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] Kamala Harris ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-02; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
-
[US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] Andrew Yang ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-02; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
-
[US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] Bernie Sanders ( 14% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-02; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-05.
-
[US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] Elizabeth Warren ( 19% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-02; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
-
[US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] Joe Biden ( 30% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-02; judged right by stepan on 2020-03-04.
-
[US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] any other candidate ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-23; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
-
[US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Amy Klobuchar ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-23; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
-
[US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Julian Castro ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-23; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
-
[US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Beto O'Rourke ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-23; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
-
[US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Cory Booker ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-23; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
-
[US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Pete Buttigieg ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-23; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
-
[US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Kamala Harris ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-23; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
-
[US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Andrew Yang ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-23; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
-
[US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Bernie Sanders ( 28% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-23; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
-
[US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Elizabeth Warren ( 19% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-23; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
-
[US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Joe Biden ( 29% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-23; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
-
[US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] any other candidate ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-12; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
-
[US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] Amy Klobuchar ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-12; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
-
[US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] Julian Castro ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-12; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
-
[US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] Beto O'Rourke ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-12; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
-
[US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] Cory Booker ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-12; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
-
[US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] Pete Buttigieg ( 12% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-12; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
-
[US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] Kamala Harris ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-12; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
-
[US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] Andrew Yang ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-12; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
-
[US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] Bernie Sanders ( 25% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-12; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
-
[US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] Elizabeth Warren ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-12; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
-
[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] any other candidate ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-04; judged wrong by Pablo on 2020-02-05.
-
[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Amy Klobuchar ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-04; judged wrong by Pablo on 2020-02-05.
-
[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Julian Castro ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-04; judged wrong by Pablo on 2020-02-05.
-
[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Beto O'Rourke ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-04; judged wrong by Pablo on 2020-02-05.
-
[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Cory Booker ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-04; judged wrong by Pablo on 2020-02-05.
-
[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Pete Buttigieg ( 17% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-04; judged right by Cato on 2020-02-29.
-
[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Kamala Harris ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-04; judged wrong by Pablo on 2020-02-05.
-
[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Andrew Yang ( 5% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-04; judged wrong by Pablo on 2020-02-05.
-
[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Bernie Sanders ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-04; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.
-
[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Elizabeth Warren ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-04; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
-
[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Joe Biden ( 23% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-04; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
-
[Hong Kong's 2020 Tiananmen Square Incident commemoration vigil] to be canceled/banned ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-06-05; judged right by Cato on 2020-06-05.
-
[Hong Kong's 2020 Tiananmen Square Incident commemoration vigil] attendance to exceed that of 2019, conditional on vigil being held ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-06-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-05.
-
SoftBank stock suffers 50% correction from its all-time-high by end of 2020 ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by batemancapital on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-12-31.
-
No WeWork IPO in 2019 ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by batemancapital on 2019-09-16; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by batemancapital on 2019-12-23.
-
Someone will succeed at the IMO grand challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io) in the next 20 years. ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by krazemon on 2019-09-15; known on 2039-09-15.
-
Someone will succeed at the IMO grand challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io) in the next 10 years. ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2019-09-15; known on 2029-09-15.
-
Someone will succeed at the IMO grand challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io) in the next 5 years. ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by krazemon on 2019-09-15; known on 2024-09-15.
-
Humanity will establish a permanent basis on the moon by 2100. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2101-01-02.
-
[US politics] Andrew Yang to participate in the third Democratic primary debate ( 80% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-15.
-
There will be a crocs movie before 2040. ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-08-29; known on 2040-01-01.
-
The world gross product of 2099 will not be less than the world gross product of 2020. ( 89% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-08-29; known on 2100-01-01.
-
The average age of death for humans in 2099 is not going to be lower than 70 years. ( 78% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-08-29; known on 2100-01-01.
-
I am not going to die as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change. ( 99% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-08-29; known on 3000-01-01.