Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 26% | 57% | 65% | 76% | 80% | 86% | |
Sample Size | 31 | 23 | 31 | 33 | 89 | 37 | 244 |
Displaying all predictions made by jesselevine. Filter by:
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No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040. ( 86% confidence; 24 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-19; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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Volume of physical books sold in 2020 to be greater than that in 2015 ( 27% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-17; known on 2021-01-01.
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US 2016 Presidential election to be Trump v. Sanders ( 5% confidence; 40 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-17; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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http://fivethirtyeight.com/ to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 51% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-01.
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By January 1, 2017, no unambiguous contact with intelligent extraterrestrials. ( 99% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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Mass shooting occurs in the US before year end (>5 deaths or casualties) ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-07-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by jesselevine on 2015-07-17.
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Mass shooting occurs in the US within one month with >5 deaths or casualties ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-07-07; known on 2015-08-07; judged right by jesselevine on 2015-07-17.
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The United Kingdom's referendum will vote to stay in the European Union. ( 61% confidence; 40 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by sdr on 2015-06-27; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ejlflop on 2016-06-24.
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human head transplant will be successful in 2017/2018? ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Avadak on 2015-05-02; known on 2018-01-02; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Jeb Bush will not be elected President of the United States. ( 75% confidence; 21 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by James Babcock on 2015-06-24; known on 2016-11-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Conditional on neither Hillary or Bernie withdrawing before the Iowa caucus or either candidate running as an independent, Bernie Sanders will be the Democratic nominee for President. ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-22; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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Jeb Bush to be next President elect of the US. ( 15% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-19; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Jeb Bush to be the 2016 Republican nominee. ( 49% confidence; 18 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-17; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-02-21.
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Syria’s civil war will not end before 2016. ( 93% confidence; 51 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02.
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Assad will remain President of Syria for the remainder of 2015. ( 89% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-02.
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No terrorist attack in the USA will kill > 100 people before 2016. ( 91% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2016-01-02.
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Neither Russia nor Qatar will lose their World Cups before 2016. ( 90% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by jesselevine on 2016-01-27.
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North Korea’s government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt before 2016. ( 89% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-02.
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Direct commercial access to the web through a brain link by 2030 ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-12; known on 2030-01-01.
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Off Foxtrot by May 30, 2015. ( 89% confidence )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-05-25; known on 2015-05-30; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2015-06-17.
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Before January 1, 2020 the Dow will stay within 12,500 and 29,000 ( 72% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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Hillary Clinton to withdraw from the US presidential election by March 17th, 2016, and Martin O'Malley to be the Democratic nominee. ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-23; known on 2016-03-17; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-17.
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The price of APEX will rise by midnight. ( 70% confidence )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-05-22; known on 2015-05-23; judged right by jesselevine on 2015-05-25.
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Conditional on Hillary Clinton winning the Democratic nomination, she will get at least 54% of the popular vote. ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-22; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Conditional on Rand Paul not winning the Republican nomination for President, the eventual Democratic nominee will win the popular vote by at least 2%.. ( 44% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-29; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-12.
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Democrat to win popular vote in 2016 with at least 57% of the popular vote. ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-20; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Both the Republicans and the Democrats to each have at least 34 US Senators after the 2016 election ( 91% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-20; known on 2016-11-12; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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By January 1, 2055, driving a non-self-driving car on at least one US federal highway will be illegal. ( 33% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-13; known on 2055-01-02.
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I will weigh more than 200lb before August 28th, 2015 ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by lumpzy on 2015-05-13; known on 2015-08-28; judged right by jesselevine on 2015-09-01.
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I will have a 4-6 pack before June 20th ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lumpzy on 2015-05-13; known on 2015-06-20; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2015-06-30.
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I will be >200 lbs, <13%bf by fall 2015 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-05-13; known on 2015-08-20; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2015-08-31.
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I will be >207lbs, <10% bf by Fall 2015 ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-05-13; known on 2015-08-20; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2015-08-19.
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Bharat will pass Nihon on the IMF's ranking of world's biggest economies. Bharat will be the 3rd biggest economy at GDP current prices in the world in 2022. However, Bharat will be one rank higher as the 2nd biggest economy in PPP terms. ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-13; known on 2022-12-27.
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Bharat will pass the Deutschland on the IMF's ranking of world's biggest economies. Bharat will be the 4th biggest economy at GDP current prices in the world in 2020. ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-13; known on 2020-12-27.
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Bharat will pass the UK on the IMF's ranking of world's biggest economies. Bharat will be the 5th biggest economy at GDP current prices in the world in 2017. ( 54% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-13; known on 2017-12-27; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-27.
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Bharat will pass France in 2016 in terms of GDP current prices using the IMF as the data source. Bharat is already the the world's 3rd largest by PPP. It will be ranked 6th biggest economy in the world. ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-13; known on 2016-12-27; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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US bicycle mode share will increase in the 2020 Census over 2010 ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-05-11; known on 2022-01-01.
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My plane will be delayed longer than 30 minutes ( 30% confidence )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-05-09; known on 2015-05-10; judged right by jesselevine on 2015-05-09.
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My flight will be delayed longer than “fifteen minutes”. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-05-09; known on 2015-05-10; judged right by jesselevine on 2015-05-09.
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Hillary chooses Julian Castro as her running mate ( 34% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2015-05-05; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-23.
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Bicyclist fatalities in the US increase from 2012 to 2013 ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-05-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-05-10.
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I will stick to Firefox as my default browser over Chrome. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-04; known on 2015-05-31; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-14.
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Hillary chooses Sanders as running mate. ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-05-04; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-23.
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>50% of all electrical power worldwide will be a result of nuclear energy by 2035 ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-05-04; known on 2035-01-01.
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At least 45% of electric power worldwide will be due to solar power by 2035. ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-03; known on 2035-01-01.
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Bernie Sanders to win the Democratic nomination. ( 18% confidence; 66 wagers; 38 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-02; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-10.
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Martial law declared in at least a third of the US by by end of 2016. ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-02; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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Disclosure of interaction with intelligent aliens by January 1, 2024 ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-01; known on 2024-01-01.
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There will be at least one US wildfire larger than 1,000,000 acres in 2016. ( 6% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-05-01; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2017-01-01.
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There will be at least one US wildfire larger than 100,000 acres in 2016. ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-05-01; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by btrettel on 2017-01-01.
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[Federal] Minimum wage is raised >$2 under the Obama administration ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-05-01; known on 2017-01-20; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-23.
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Bernie Sanders to be the next elected President of the United States ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-01; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-10.
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Should James Eagan Holmes be found guilty, he will be sentenced capital punishment. ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-28; known on 2015-10-29; judged wrong by btrettel on 2015-08-07.
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James Eagan Holmes, known perpetrator of the 2012 theater massacre in Aurora, CO, will be found not guilty by reason of insanity. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged wrong by btrettel on 2015-08-07.
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Hillary Clinton to be the next elected President of the United States. ( 56% confidence; 43 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-27; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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By 2020, marijuana will be widely used in the US to treat neurodenerative diseases and and multiple new drugs based on cannabis research will have been patented or in least final stages of FDA approval. ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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Hillary Clinton will be the next president elect. ( 62% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-26; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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I will get the number of the next person I approach ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-26; known on 2015-05-03; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-22.
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In the 2016 election, a majority of Hispanic voters (as determined by exit polls) will vote for the Republican candidate. ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-26; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-12.
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I will never have kids ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Mishell103 on 2015-04-25; known on 2025-04-25.
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DN will drink tonight ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-24; known on 2015-04-25; judged right by jesselevine on 2015-04-25.
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By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ( 93% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-24; known on 2030-01-01.
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I will live longer than JoshuaZ ( 51% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-23; known on 2100-01-01.
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[Long term] By 2200, the continent of Africa will be thriving, with a competitive economy and cities that rival those of other continents. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-23; known on 2200-01-01.
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DN will relapse and continue to smoke tobacco within a week ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-23; known on 2015-04-30; judged right by jesselevine on 2015-04-23.
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I will complete summer physics ii and chemistry courses with nothing lower than an A- ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-23; known on 2015-08-01; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2015-08-01.
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I will complete physics and chemistry this summer before fall semester. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-23; known on 2015-08-01; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2015-08-01.
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I will be diagnosed with Narcolepsy with cataplexy within 1 year. ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-22; known on 2016-04-23; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-04-24.
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By May 8, 2015, my chess rating on the iPhone app will increase to 850. Don't hate on my fantastic rating ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-22; known on 2015-05-08; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2015-05-09.
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At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ( 23% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-22; known on 2030-01-01.
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Between now and April 22nd, 2016 There will be large-scale riots in major US cities, gun confiscation in rural areas, and a financial crisis, possibly not all at once or in that precise order. ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-22; known on 2016-04-21; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-04-21.
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One of the next 5 years, the total population will be lower at the end of the year than the start of the year. ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-21; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-19.
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By 2030, at least 70% of jobs existing in 2015 will be replaced with automation. ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-20; known on 2030-01-01.
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The Russian Federation will disintegrate in the next 15 years, defined by either the current amount of land broadly recognized as Russia reducing by 20% or a clear state of anarchy and general collapse. ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-19; known on 2030-01-01.
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Robots able to clean a whole bathroom will be commercially available by 2030 ( 78% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jasticE on 2015-04-19; known on 2030-01-01.
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Kyrgyzstan will experience a change in ruling party or civil unrest before 2017. ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jasticE on 2015-04-19; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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The legal status of marijuana (including medical) in the UK will undergo a substantial change ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2018-01-31.
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By the end of 2015, either a presidential candidate, a member of congress, or Obama, will talk about the rise of AI as it relates to job-loss and/or existential crisis. ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by FractalHeretic on 2015-04-18; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by jesselevine on 2016-01-27.
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I will encounter a girl, whom I genuinely want to be with and we'll date and be all cute and whatnot. (by the end of this year). ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-01-01.
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Hillary Clinton chooses Sherrod Brown as running mate. ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-04-16; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-23.
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Hillary chooses running mate from Ohio, Colorado, Florida, or Virginia. ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-04-16; known on 2016-09-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-23.
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I will attend every class tomorrow, 4/13/15. ( 50% confidence )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-13; known on 2015-04-13.
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By 2030, the consensus in the United States will be that 9/11 was an inside job with US government involvement. Consensus to be determined by at least 60% of the US believing it, or it to be widely accepted in some other fashion if the situation has broke ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-13; known on 2030-01-01.
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Commercialized living on Mars will not have a positive cost/benefit analysis and won't become widespread for at least 85 years. Commercialized living is defined by habitation not primarily for scientific research. ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-13; known on 2100-01-01.
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Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ( 41% confidence; 20 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-13; known on 2030-01-01.
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By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ( 11% confidence; 13 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-12; known on 2065-01-01.
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At least 40 states will have some form of legal cannabis by 2024 ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-09; known on 2024-01-01.
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The next president elect will be a member of the democratic party. ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-09; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Schizophrenia will popularly be considered a part of the Autism spectrum, supporting imprinted brain theory. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-09; known on 2035-04-09.
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There will be a new DSM version released by 2020, replacing the current DSM-V. Can be a revision (i.e., DSM-V TR) ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-09; known on 2020-01-01.
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Within 50 years lesions or similar cerebral damaging will be discovered for Homo Sapiens as a result of recreational doses of NMDA antagonists. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-09; known on 2065-04-09.
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By January 1, 2045, each of the cities of Flagstaff, Las Vegas, Albuquerque, Clovis, Prescott, Henderson, Hobbs, and Abilene will have a population of at most 10% its population compared to the population in 2015. ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-06; known on 2045-01-03.
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Greece, will still have the Euro at the end of 2016 ( 66% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Chri on 2015-01-26; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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That my wife will give birth to a baby girl ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by woodse on 2015-01-16; known on 2015-05-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-04.
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Venezuela will undergo sovereign default before 2016. ( 8% confidence; 60 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-09-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-02.
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Microsoft is gonna change its OS's name from Windows to something else within 5 years because people hate Windows. ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2019-08-02; judged wrong by IlliaHalaituk on 2019-08-03.
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“better than 50/50 chance Kepler-186f has technological life” —Hontas Farmer ( 0% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-04-21; known on 2019-04-21; judged wrong by gwern on 2019-04-22.
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Zerocoin functionality incorporated into Bitcoin within 5 years ( 29% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-22; known on 2018-11-22; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-11-23.
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Bitcoin was created by aliens ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-05-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028 ( 8% confidence; 18 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-12; known on 2028-12-31.