Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 0% | 40% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 12 |
Displaying all predictions made by marchdown. Filter by:
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My diabetic partner won't be hospitalized this week despite their intention. ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by marchdown on 2015-09-21; known on 2015-09-28; judged right by marchdown on 2015-10-23.
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Kocherga won't be financially self-sufficent by the end of March 2016. Edit ( 80% confidence )
Created by marchdown on 2015-09-21; known on 2016-04-01.
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ISIS will continue to exist through the end of 2015. ( 97% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-02.
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No terrorist attack in the USA will kill > 100 people before 2016. ( 91% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2016-01-02.
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North Korea’s government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt before 2016. ( 89% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-02.
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There exist infinitely many primes no more than 500,000 apart, proven by 2035 ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-05-14; known on 2035-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-06-06.
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2013: Chinese household consumption <=35% of Chinese GDP —Michael Pettis ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-28; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2014-03-09.
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By the end of the year Namecoin would be closer to Bitcoin in value than to the early-2012 value of Namecoin. ( 78% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by marchdown on 2012-01-03; known on 2012-12-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-27.