Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 67% | 50% | 57% | 83% | 100% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 35 |
Displaying all predictions made by Flipnash. Filter by:
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HP MoR: We will learn that the True Patronus by itself can block the Killing Curse, no matter who casts each spell. ( 46% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by 75th on 2013-08-13; known on 2015-07-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.
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HP MoR: A Deathly Hallow besides the Cloak will appear in the possession of a character in the present-day at some point ( 92% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: Harry had a hand in the disappearance of Hermione's corpse. ( 80% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-18; known on 2015-06-23; judged right by Roxolan on 2015-03-01.
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i will finish chapter three today ( 89% confidence )
Created by Flipnash on 2014-04-28; known on 2014-04-29; judged wrong by Flipnash on 2014-04-29.
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Narendra Modi will become PM of India in the 2014 elections. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by roshni on 2014-04-28; known on 2014-05-20; judged right by roshni on 2014-05-20.
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The simurgh is playing taylor and lisa. [worm] ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Flipnash on 2013-09-18; known on 2014-09-18.
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at least one of space X's 5 launches due in 2013 will be delayed past January first of 2014 ( 57% confidence )
Created by Flipnash on 2013-08-19; known on 2014-01-01.
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The bay12 wormverse rp will start not less than 4 days from now ( 78% confidence )
Created by Flipnash on 2013-09-30; known on 2013-10-04; judged right by Flipnash on 2013-10-07.
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Grand Theft Auto 5 to be released on PC before April 2014 ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Omid on 2013-09-18; known on 2014-04-01; judged wrong by wraith on 2014-05-28.
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In the next arc Taylor will have a second trigger event.[worm web serial] ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Flipnash on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-27; judged wrong by Flipnash on 2013-10-28.
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no new chapters of hpmor will be finished by October 1st ( 64% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Flipnash on 2013-09-13; known on 2013-10-01; judged right by apeterson on 2013-10-01.
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In worm, Eidolon did not create the Endbringers subconsciously or otherwise. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Flipnash on 2013-09-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Flipnash on 2014-04-28.
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No one will win Sam Harris's prize for convincing him that his book is wrong ( 87% confidence; 19 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Omid on 2013-09-01; known on 2014-11-01; judged right by Matt2000 on 2014-11-01.
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US to launch strikes on Syria by September 21, 2013 ( 23% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-08-31; known on 2013-09-21; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-09-21.
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HPMOR: Dumbledore is Grindelwald ( 2% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dusk on 2013-08-20; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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I will have used up 3 hours worth of pomodoros today ( 60% confidence )
Created by Flipnash on 2013-08-17; known on 2013-08-18; judged right by Flipnash on 2013-08-17.
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[HPMOR] Dumbledore did not kill (intentionally or unintentionally) Hermione. ( 79% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by linkhyrule5 on 2013-08-16; known on 2014-07-02; judged right by linkhyrule5 on 2015-02-20.
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If a hyperloop is created, it will be predominately (>50%) solar-powered. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-08-15; known on 2100-01-01.
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When and if a hyperloop-like transit system is built (or not), the US will not be the first country to build it. ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-08-15; known on 2100-01-01.
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At least 5 other people will make predictions on this prediction before I'm told to judge it August 21. ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by High_Fiber_Twigs on 2013-08-13; known on 2013-08-21; judged right by procran on 2013-08-20.
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I'll meet my goal of making at least one prediction per day for every day this week. ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by High_Fiber_Twigs on 2013-08-13; known on 2013-08-21; judged right by High_Fiber_Twigs on 2013-08-21.
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Jeff Bezos will use his influence as owner of the Washington Post to run for Senate by 2020 ( 11% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by workbean on 2013-08-06; known on 2020-01-16; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-17.
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Bill predicts that the phrase “0-caching” or “n-caching” will become common hip teen slang by 2018 ( 16% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by optimistindustries on 2013-08-03; known on 2018-08-03; judged wrong by enolan on 2018-08-27.
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I will get into my first choice for university ( 39% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by thostian on 2013-07-31; known on 2013-08-20; judged right by thostian on 2014-09-16.
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HP MoR: Quirinus Quirrell is actually Nymphadora Tonks. ( 0% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-25; known on 2014-07-25; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-13.
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HP MoR: Harry will learn the killing curse by the end of the year or Quirrell will be disappointed that Harry has not learned the killing curse by the end of the year. ( 31% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Cakoluchiam on 2013-07-24; known on 2014-05-15; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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Ubuntu Edge will raise 32 million dollar on IndieGoGo ( 22% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2013-07-23; known on 2013-08-21; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-08-22.
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HP MoR: the troll attack in ch88-89 was executed by Lucius Malfoy ( 11% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Petruchio on 2013-07-11; known on 2015-06-30; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-21.
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Half-Life 3 will be announced this summer ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by alecbrooks on 2013-06-29; known on 2013-09-23; judged wrong by alecbrooks on 2013-09-23.
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Google will survive for five more years ( 97% confidence; 38 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-05-19; known on 2018-05-19; judged right by NancyLebovitz on 2018-05-19.
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Strong evidence of life on Europa in next fifty years. ( 17% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-04-26; known on 2063-04-26.
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BTC hits $1000 within the year ( 15% confidence; 20 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2013-11-28.
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By 2022, some roads will be self-driving-only. —Alyssa Vance ( 51% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-11-24; known on 2023-01-01.
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I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years. ( 82% confidence; 15 wagers )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-29; known on 2022-09-29; judged right by lukeprog on 2022-09-29.
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I will have watched every video on Khan Academy by August 2013. ( 39% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Alexander Kruel on 2011-08-17; known on 2013-08-17; judged wrong by dk on 2013-11-04.