Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 43% | 58% | 69% | 68% | 92% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 23 | 71 | 70 | 65 | 91 | 2 | 322 |
Displaying all predictions made by qznc. Filter by:
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[The Economist predicts:] Scotland's parliament votes for independence referendum ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Tesla will achieve approved full self-driving in at least one state in the USA by the end of 2024 without geofencing. ( 24% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2020-01-01; known on 2024-12-31.
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[Vikings] Bjorn is elected king of all Norway ( 60% confidence )
Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2020-02-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2020-02-01.
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[Vikings] Lagertha survives season 6 ( 40% confidence )
Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2020-02-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2020-02-01.
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Halo Infinite is released in Q4 2020 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2020-12-25; judged wrong by qznc on 2021-01-01.
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Diablo IV is released in 2021 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2021-12-31; judged wrong by qznc on 2022-01-02.
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Jurassic World 3 is released in June 2021 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2021-06-30; judged wrong by qznc on 2021-07-01.
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Uncharted movie is released in December 2020 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2020-12-25; judged wrong by qznc on 2021-01-01.
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Dune movie is released in December 2020 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2020-12-25; judged wrong by qznc on 2021-01-01.
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Avatar 2 is released in December 2021 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2021-12-25; judged wrong by qznc on 2022-01-02.
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A Star Wars movie is released in December 2022 ( 38% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2022-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-01-01.
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AfD will get more votes than FDP in 2020 Hamburg State Election ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2019-12-12; known on 2020-02-24; judged right by qznc on 2020-02-25.
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SPD will get the most votes in 2020 Hamburg State Election ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2019-12-12; known on 2020-02-24; judged right by qznc on 2020-02-25.
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If Joe Biden wins the 2020 democratic bid for president then Donald Trump will win the 2020 election. ( 50% confidence; 29 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by jprettner on 2019-06-28; known on 2019-08-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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Trump wins a second term in office ( 48% confidence; 29 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-06-05; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by avi on 2020-11-07.
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US-China Trade War will NOT end in 2019. ( 78% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by zilong on 2019-06-02; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by zilong on 2019-12-31.
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“Britain holds second Brexit referendum” ( 22% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-01-01.
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“Of course in 5 years this [Google Assistant] thing is retired without much fanfare because Google doesn’t know how to create products” – BB ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Neznans on 2018-05-16; known on 2023-05-16; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-05-22.
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Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death. ( 6% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2017-03-17; known on 2037-03-17; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-09-08.
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Trump will win a second term ( 46% confidence; 74 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2020-11-08; judged wrong by regex on 2020-11-20.
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Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state ( 0% confidence; 35 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-10; known on 2025-01-01.
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California will secede from the United States before 2021 ( 0% confidence; 34 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-13; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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Barack Obama recognizes Palestine ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-11-12; known on 2017-02-12; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-20.
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Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee for President in 2016. ( 52% confidence; 88 wagers; 55 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-14; known on 2016-07-20; judged right by elephantower on 2016-07-16.
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Hillary Clinton wins the presidential election 2016 ( 64% confidence; 26 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2016-07-04; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Trump wins the presidential election 2016 ( 34% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by qznc on 2016-07-04; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
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Scotland rejoins the EU as an independent nation in the next 10 years. ( 35% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-06-27; known on 2026-01-16.
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Wales wins Euro 2016 ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-06-01; known on 2016-07-11; judged wrong by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-07-07.
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Trump's VP pick is not white (counting hispanic as non-white). ( 24% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-06; known on 2016-08-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Trump's VP pick is a woman. ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-06; known on 2016-08-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Trump's VP pick is not a career politician (i.e. is a businessperson, celebrity, etc.) ( 32% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-06; known on 2016-08-16; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-15.
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Italy will default on its debt by 2022. ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-16; known on 2022-12-25; judged wrong by qznc on 2022-01-02.
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Vladimir Putin is not the President of Russia at the end of this prediction. ( 40% confidence; 16 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-02-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-01-02.
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USA will default on its debt. ( 19% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-06; known on 2023-12-25.
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At least one country leaves the Eurozone before 2018 ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by qznc on 2015-11-12; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Juno spacecraft sends images from Jupiter ( 89% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2015-11-12; known on 2016-07-04; judged right by jessriedel on 2016-07-05.
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@katyperry will have the most Twitter followers at the end of 2015 ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2015-11-12; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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Volkswagen shares will be traded above 140€ in November ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2015-12-01.
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In 2016 Tesla Motors will sell a <$30,000 electric car. ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by qznc on 2015-11-12; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2017-01-03.
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Scott Adams – I predict Trump gets at least 65% of the votes in the general election. ( 4% confidence; 20 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by halfwit on 2015-11-03; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky to have at least 1 child by 2020 ( 22% confidence; 31 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by sdr on 2015-10-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-01-01.
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The DRACO Indiegogo campaign will reach 100,000. ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2015-12-12; judged wrong by memoriesofbutter on 2015-12-24.
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CISA (CISPA successor) will be stopped ( 60% confidence )
Created by qznc on 2014-07-14; known on 2014-09-02.
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Saudi Arabia and Turkey will be invaded by Russian forces before 2017. ( 9% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Znt on 2015-10-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Kanye West elected President by 2032 — Scott Adams ( 0% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2015-09-23; known on 2032-11-10.
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2016 election to be Trump (Republican) v. non Hillary ( 12% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-16; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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Donald Trump to be the next elected President of the United Stated. ( 21% confidence; 53 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-10; known on 2016-11-12; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-09.
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Donald Trump to run as a third party candidate in the 2016 election. ( 11% confidence; 19 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-23; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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US 2016 Presidential election to be Trump v. Sanders ( 5% confidence; 40 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-17; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020 ( 83% confidence; 40 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Greece will return to the Drachma and abandon the Euro currency ( 40% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2015-07-05; known on 2016-07-05; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-05.
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There will be a terrorist attack on US interests in 2015 ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by SalTnutZ1 on 2015-07-05; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by kuudes on 2015-12-27.
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The United Kingdom's referendum will vote to stay in the European Union. ( 61% confidence; 40 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by sdr on 2015-06-27; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ejlflop on 2016-06-24.
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By April 21, 2020, World War III will have broken out. ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-21; known on 2020-04-21; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-04-21.
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Sam Altman: Stripe, Zenefits, Instacart, Mixpanel, Teespring, Optimizely, Coinbase, Docker, and Weebly to be collectively worth at least $27b by Jan 1, 2020 ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2015-03-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by qznc on 2020-01-03.
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HPMoR: Quirrell supports Harry's resolution to bring back Hermione. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by player_03 on 2014-06-22; known on 2015-06-22.
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Greece, will still have the Euro at the end of 2016 ( 66% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Chri on 2015-01-26; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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HP MoR: Hat & Cloak is Voldemort, but not Quirrel ( 23% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-03-16; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Dementors simply kill like anything else, death is death (cf. Death Note) ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Oscar_Cunningham on 2017-02-06.
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HP MoR: Azkaban Island is the last remnant of Atlantis ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: someone will be mentioned or shown using the Imperius curse on themselves (or consenting to another's use on them) to supplement their willpower (dieting, working hard, etc.) ( 32% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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Gmail will still exist in five years, in contrast to Mike Elgan's prediction. http://www.computerworld.com/article/2838775/why-google-wants-to-replace-gmail.html ( 91% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2014-10-31; known on 2019-10-31; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-11-09.
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Less than 10 people will die of Ebola in Germany within the next year ( 87% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by qznc on 2014-10-21; known on 2015-10-21; judged right by Josh Holland on 2015-10-21.
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Less than 300 people will die of Ebola within the fifty United States by January 1, 2018 —Bryan Caplan ( 88% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2014-10-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by bendini on 2017-11-20.
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Ebola outbreak kills more than 30000 people by the end of the year ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by phreeza on 2014-09-15; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.
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Eliezer will state that he has finished writing HPMOR by the end of 2014. ( 33% confidence; 19 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Calien on 2014-08-19; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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Team NewBee will be DOTA2 Champions of The International 2014 ( 60% confidence )
Created by qznc on 2014-07-21; known on 2014-07-22; judged right by qznc on 2014-07-22.
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some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-21; known on 2024-07-21.
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Luke turns, or has turned, to the Dark Side in Star Wars episode 7. ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by HonoreDB on 2014-07-20; known on 2015-12-18; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-26.
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Edward Snowden to be awarded the 2014 Nobel Peace Prize ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-19; known on 2014-10-10; judged wrong by clemux on 2014-10-11.
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Vladimir Putin to be awarded the 2014 Nobel Peace Prize ( 1% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-19; known on 2014-10-10; judged wrong by qznc on 2014-10-10.
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Price of Bitcoin end of 2014 to be more than $600 ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2015-01-01.
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Joachim makes a solo win (WebDip #144039) ( 60% confidence )
Created by qznc on 2014-07-15; known on 2014-08-14.
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Bitcoin will be traded for >$1000 within 2014 ( 38% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2014-07-14; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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“In the next 20 years driverless cars will be a reality, there won't be any cab drivers.” Russ Roberts ( 64% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-07-11; known on 2034-01-01.
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A wsop bracket winner makes the November 9. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by cdf12345 on 2014-07-08; known on 2014-08-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2014-07-16.
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Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black. ( 13% confidence; 24 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-17; known on 2024-06-16.
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Labour will win the most seats in the next UK general election. ( 58% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-06; known on 2015-05-07; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
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An alive human from the Mars One organisation will have been on Mars before January 1st 2024. ( 6% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-03-09; known on 2024-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry's father's rock is actually the Resurrection Stone. ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by booradleytron on 2014-03-09; known on 2014-09-16; judged wrong by Osuniev on 2014-08-02.
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HP MoR: That Bellatrix is Black not Lestrange will be important. ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by booradleytron on 2014-03-06; known on 2014-10-16; judged wrong by Osuniev on 2015-03-28.
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By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ( 54% confidence; 42 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by ZLM on 2014-02-10; known on 2025-01-01; judged unknown by lavalamp on 2014-08-21.
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bitcoin will cost more than $1500 by the end of year ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by vasaka on 2014-01-27; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2015-01-01.
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Bitcoins will reach more than 2000$ (at least one time) during the year 2014. ( 36% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2014-01-26; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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HPMOR: final chapter to be published before Dec 1st of 2014 ( 28% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by sdr on 2014-01-24; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by on 2014-12-01.
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HP MoR: While the diamond was just transfigured from his father's rock, the ring itself was also transfigured from Hermione's remains or part thereof, thus getting past Dumbledore's scanning for transfigured objects that Harry may have had on his person ( 42% confidence; 28 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-08; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by tedks on 2015-02-28.
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Spotify will overtake iTunes as the main source of music distribution in the United States, United Kingdom and Ireland. ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by DillonNolan on 2013-12-31; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.
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Intrade will be open for business by 31 December 2014 ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by najdorf on 2013-11-11; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by najdorf on 2014-12-31.
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[HPMOR] Dumbledore did not kill (intentionally or unintentionally) Hermione. ( 79% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by linkhyrule5 on 2013-08-16; known on 2014-07-02; judged right by linkhyrule5 on 2015-02-20.
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Tesla Motors / SpaceX / Elon Musk will create a working hyperloop by 2030. ( 17% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-08-12; known on 2030-01-01.
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HPMOR : The Dark Lord that Harry will vanquish is not Quirrelmort but Death itself. (http://lesswrong.com/lw/b7s/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/841h) ( 55% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Osuniev on 2013-07-31; known on 2014-07-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.
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HP MoR: Harry will learn the killing curse by the end of the year or Quirrell will be disappointed that Harry has not learned the killing curse by the end of the year. ( 31% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Cakoluchiam on 2013-07-24; known on 2014-05-15; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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Canonical will be acquired before 2015 ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2013-07-23; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by dhoe on 2014-12-31.
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HP MoR: neither Quirrellmort, nor Snape, nor Dumbledore, nor Lucius, nor Hermione is responsible for framing Hermione. ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-05-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by DrDiaphanous on 2015-02-19.
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HP MoR: Hermione alone is responsible for the attempted murder. ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-05-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by DrDiaphanous on 2015-02-19.
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HP MoR: Lucius Malfoy is responsible for framing Hermione. ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-05-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by DrDiaphanous on 2015-02-19.
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HP MoR: Dumbledore is responsible for framing Hermione. ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-05-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by DrDiaphanous on 2015-02-19.
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HP MoR: Quirrellmort is responsible for framing Hermione. ( 59% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-05-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by DrDiaphanous on 2015-02-19.
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By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S. ( 38% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022 ( 34% confidence; 35 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-15; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by M on 2022-01-01.