Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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US government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt. ( 98% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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There is a terrorist attack in the USA killing > 100 people. ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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CFAR will continue operating in end of 2014. ( 85% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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Bitcoins will reach more than 2000$ (at least one time) during the year 2014. ( 36% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2014-01-26; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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I will join the military before 2015. ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-01-01.
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I will obtain Portuguese citizenship before 2015. ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-01-01.
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At least 1 LW post > 100 karma in 2014. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2015-01-01.
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No nuclear weapon used in anger in 2014. ( 98% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2015-01-01.
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Egypt's government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2015-01-01.
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China's government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt. ( 69% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2015-01-01.
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North Korea's government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2015-01-01.
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I will finish reading On Lisp before 2015. ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-18; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2015-01-01.
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Obama will remain President of USA at end of 2014. ( 98% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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Price of Bitcoin end of 2014 to be more than $600 ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2015-01-01.
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Dr Bob says: If you invest at Apple in June of 2014 right after the split at roughly $90/share you will turn a profit provided you sell by Dec 31 2014 ( 60% confidence )
Created by kjaques on 2014-06-03; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by kjaques on 2015-01-01.
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I will have a source of sustainable passive income (minimum $400 per month, requiring < 2hrs per day from me) by the end of this year, so that I can go ahead and pursue my life's dreams full time. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by platypus42 on 2014-04-04; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by platypus42 on 2015-01-01.
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There'll be a popular Android tablet sold for less than $50 (as standard pricing) before 2015 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-12; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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Steve Ballmer will be the CEO of Microsoft at the end of 2014 ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by dusk on 2013-01-24; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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US minimum wage to be $9 (nominal) or greater by 2015. ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-20; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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At least one conviction will occur for someone involved in the Boston Marathon bombing before January 1, 2015 ( 69% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-04-18; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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Libya will have a lower HDI next time it is assessed ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by modulus on 2012-01-23; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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Cure for baldness discovered by 2014 — The Telegraph. ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-31; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Pablo on 2015-01-01.
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The USG will ratify the Trans Pacific Partnership before 2015. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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there will be a cure for AIDS by the year 2015 ( 90% confidence; 7 comments )
Created by sinyos on 2011-11-20; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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“It’s my prediction that by 2015, we will have an LTE network that will cover most of the important places in the world and that will give us the coverage and capacity we need” —Anssi Vanjoki ( 25% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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2013-2014: Chinese GDP growth <8% —Michael Pettis ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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Global circumnavigation by solar aircraft ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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A will have asked more than 3 questions on MSE before 2015. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by adri on 2014-12-12; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by adri on 2015-01-01.
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Intrade will close/merge/be sold by 2015. ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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By the end of the year, I will have reached a geohash point for the Aberystwyth graticule ( 5% confidence )
Created by Rowan93 on 2014-01-24; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Rowan93 on 2015-01-01.
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No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2015. ( 95% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-31; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2015-01-01.
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Dropbox will move off of Amazon S3 before they go public or before 2015 ( 49% confidence; 8 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by workbean on 2013-06-01; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by quanticle on 2016-03-16.
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Hanson and Yudkowsky publish the AI FOOM debate (EDIT: in a peer-reviewed, academic journal) before 2015. ( 30% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2012-02-22; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.
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Robin Hanson will publish a book before 2015. ( 27% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.
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The US will have >4% yearly GDP growth, for more than 2 quarters, by Dec 31, 2014. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by annis on 2011-11-05; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.
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“U.S. private reserves may run out by 2015” —CISFHR ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.
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D-Wave will be commercially selling a >=1024-qubit quantum annealing chip by 2015 ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-06; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.
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EoE will be released on Bluray in 2014 ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-04; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.
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At least half of my showers this December will be cold. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-13; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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NGE TV will be released on Bluray in 2014 ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-04; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.
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I will complete the Good Judgment Project and be paid the full honorarium. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-05; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2015-01-01.
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NGE: 4.0 will be released in 2014 ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.
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NGE: 3.0 will be released in 2014 ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.
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NGE: There will not be a live-action Evangelion movie before 2015 ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2015-01-01.
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Yoshiyuki Sadamoto's Evangelion manga will be finished sometime in 2014 ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-03-03; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2015-01-01.
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By 2015 a mother will be able to have much of the genome of her unborn child sequenced from her own blood. ( 60% confidence; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2015-01-01.
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The Haruhi light novel series will conclude by 2015. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-05; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.
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I will still live in Berlin at the end of 2014 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ChristianKl on 2012-11-29; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by ChristianKl on 2015-01-01.
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The situation on Ukraine will turn into international conflict before end of 2014 and battles will be fought on Polish territory. ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by TeMPOraL on 2014-08-14; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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George Zimmerman will be convicted of murder or manslaughter for the shooting of Trayvon Martin before 2015. ( 43% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-07; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-01.