Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 50% | 100% | 0% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
Displaying all predictions made by johnmichaelbridge. Filter by:
-
We will not have a Singularity or intelligence explosion of the sort predicted by Yudkowsky in 'The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate – LessWrong' by 2035 ( 72% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-06-22; known on 2035-01-01.
-
Kamala Harris will attend the Queen's funeral ( 65% confidence )
Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-09-15; known on 2022-12-19.
-
We will not have a Singularity or intelligence explosion, of the sort predicted by Yudkowsky in 'The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate – LessWrong' by 2025 ( 96% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-06-22; known on 2025-01-01.
-
We will not have a Singularity or intelligence explosion, of the sort predicted by Yudkowsky in 'The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate – LessWrong' by 2030. ( 78% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-06-22; known on 2030-01-01.
-
Bitcoin will have increased in value relative to the British pound by this time next year. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-06-18; known on 2023-06-18.
-
Boris Johnson will still be in post by the time of the next general election ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-06-08; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-06-09.
-
I will self-identify as vegan ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-05-17; known on 2023-01-16.
-
I will have taken the Pledge ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-05-17; known on 2023-01-16; judged right by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-05-27.
-
The British Labour Party will not win the next general election. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-05-27; known on 2025-01-25.
-
Elon Musk completes acquisition of Twitter ( 59% confidence; 36 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-14; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-10-30.