Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 43% | 63% | 71% | 83% | 93% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 373 | 575 | 496 | 412 | 690 | 110 | 2656 |
Displaying all predictions made by gwern. Filter by:
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Eliezer will have replied to my PM by tomorrow morning. The reply will be a go-ahead. ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-27; known on 2012-01-28; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-28.
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Eliezer will reply to my PM in the next 2 days. The reply will be a go-ahead. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-27; known on 2012-01-29; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-28.
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Night 26: pill was Vitamin D ( 35% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-26; known on 2012-01-26; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-26.
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Less Wrong will have a “limited-access forum” before 2013. ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-26; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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Jeff will defriend me on Facebook sometime in the next three days. ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 16 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-26; known on 2012-01-29; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-09.
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PredictionBook will display users' Brier scores by the end of this year. ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-25; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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Night 25: pill was Vitamin D ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-25; known on 2012-01-25; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-25.
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lukeprog will offer me a job in the email. ( 65% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-03; known on 2011-12-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-03.
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“I predict that I or my team will win (1st place) for the Quantified Health Prize. (70%)” —Kevin ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-02-18.
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Night 24: pill was Vitamin D ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2012-01-24; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-24.
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“I will place in the top 5 for the Quantified Health Prize” —Kevin ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2012-03-01; judged right by Grognor on 2012-02-18.
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United States ceases to be a net fuel importer for 2012. (60%) —knb ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2013-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-02-02.
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US official unemployment rate is still above 7% in December 2012. (75%) —knb ( 82% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2012-12-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-01.
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No 3rd party candidate gains 5% of the popular vote for president. (90%) —knb ( 82% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2012-11-04; judged right by gwern on 2012-11-04.
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“Sovereign nation states will cease to exist and there will be one world government” —krozier93; BBC ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.
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The Sahara desert will be smaller by square kilometers in 2112 than 2012 ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.
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“Space elevators will make space travel cheap and easy” —Ahdok; BBC ( 34% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.
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“80% of the world will have gay marriage” —Paul, BBC ( 71% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.
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“There will only be three languages in the world – English, Spanish and Mandarin” —Bill Walker, BBC ( 2% confidence; 34 wagers; 24 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.
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Functioning commercial fusion by 2112 —Kennys_Heroes, BBC ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.
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“Nanorobots will flow around our body fixing cells, and will be able to record our memories” —Alister Brown, BBC ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.
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'Antarctica will be “open for business”' —Dev 2; BBC ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.
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“We will be able to control the weather” —mariebee_; BBC ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.
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“We will have the ability to communicate through thought transmission” —Dev 2; BBC ( 63% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.
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France's Sarkozy to run for presidency. ( 96% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-01-24; known on 2012-02-15; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-02-15.
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Federal investigation of Chris Dodd and/or the MPAA for bribery before the end of this year. ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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GJP: #1070 Will Israel release Palestinian politician Aziz Duwaik from prison before 1 March 2012? ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-23; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-01.
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GJP: #1063 Will the Taliban begin official* in-person negotiations with either the US or Afghan government by 1 April 2012? ( 25% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-23; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
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GJP: #1064 Will Yousaf Raza Gillani resign, lose confidence vote, or vacate the office of Prime Minister of Pakistan before 1 April 2012? ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-23; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
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GJP: #1066 Will Yemen's next presidential election commence before 1 April 2012? ( 65% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-23; known on 2012-04-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-25.
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GJP: #1067 Will Traian Basescu resign, lose referendum vote, or vacate the office of President of Romania before 1 April 2012? ( 30% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-23; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
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GJP: #1068 Will the UN Security Council pass a new measure/resolution directly concerning Syria between 23 January 2012 and 31 March 2012? ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-23; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
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GJP: #1069 Before 1 April 2012, will South Korea officially* announce a policy of reducing Iranian oil imports in 2012? ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-23; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
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Created by gwern on 2012-01-23; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Night 23: pill was Vitamin D ( 35% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-23; known on 2012-01-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-23.
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P != NP will not be resolved by 2013 ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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Night 22: pill was Vitamin D ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-22; known on 2012-01-22; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-22.
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Night 21: pill was Vitamin D ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-21; known on 2012-01-21; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-21.
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Bitcoin value 01.April.2012 between 20 and 24 US$. ( 34% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by siscoking on 2012-01-21; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
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SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021. ( 13% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Night 20: pill was Vitamin D ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-20; known on 2012-01-20; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-20.
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Before the end of the year, PredictionBook will offer weighted averages for the community confidence in a prediction, and/or offer an API for others to do so. ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2012-01-20; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2013-01-01.
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Night 19: pill was Vitamin D ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-19; known on 2012-01-19; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-19.
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Night 18: pill was Vitamin D ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-18; known on 2012-01-18; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-18.
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Night 17: pill was Vitamin D ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-17; known on 2012-01-17; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-17.
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I will not consider any of the next four chapters of HPMR to be as good as chapter 74. ( 64% confidence; 6 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-29; known on 2012-03-15; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-03-12.
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Night 16: pill was Vitamin D ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-16; known on 2012-01-16; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-16.
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Night 15: pill was Vitamin D ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-15; known on 2012-01-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-15.
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Bitcoin value 01.April.2012 more than US$ 35 ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by siscoking on 2012-01-15; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
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Bitcoin value 01.April.2012 more than US$ 30 ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by siscoking on 2012-01-15; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
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Bitcoin value 01.April.2012 more than US$ 25 ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by siscoking on 2012-01-15; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
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Bitcoin value 01.April.2012 more than US$ 20 ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by siscoking on 2012-01-15; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
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Bitcoin value 01.April.2012 more than US$ 15 ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by siscoking on 2012-01-15; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
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Bitcoin value 01.April.2012 more than US$ 10 ( 61% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by siscoking on 2012-01-15; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
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GoodSearch (http://goodsearch.com/) will continue to operate two years from today. ( 81% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Grognor on 2012-01-14; known on 2014-01-14; judged right by Grognor on 2014-01-15.
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GoodSearch (http://goodsearch.com/) will continue to operate one year from today. ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Grognor on 2012-01-14; known on 2013-01-14; judged right by Grognor on 2013-01-14.
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The energy source formerly known as cold fusion will be generally accepted as real by end 2012. ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by waveman on 2012-01-13; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-31.
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NGE: The First Ancestral Race will reveal themselves and will come to Earth personally in 3.0 to punish Rei-Shinji/Shogoki for trespassing into their domain of power. ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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NGE: Sadamoto's Eva manga, Asuka will try to go berserk and will be killed by the MPEs; 3rd Impact subsequently starts ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-01.
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'Google reboots android marketplace' in 2011 —Brian Breslin ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-29; known on 2012-01-01.
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Blue Waters built, fully online, and capable of >1 sustained petaflops by 2013 ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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WTI Oil front month (96 US$ today) will go lower and reach 50 US$ by the end of 2012 ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by herb on 2011-11-21; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-31.
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“By the end of 2011 it will be clear that the world financial crisis of 2009 had no effect on the rate of urbanization in the developing world, but it led to growth of the informal economy in those countries and to increases in global crime.” ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2011-12-31.
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Night 14: pill was Vitamin D ( 60% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2012-01-14; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-14.
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“computing systems powerful enough to manage a synapse-level simulation of a human brain in real time and then some” by 2092 —Charles Stross ( 69% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
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A human neural connectome will have been mapped by 2092 —Charles Stross ( 93% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
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Cultured mammalian meat cheaper than and as tasty as real meat by 2092 —Charles Stross ( 72% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
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Between 2012 and 2092, a new plague will kill 1M<x<1B people —Charles Stross ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
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Limb and organ (re)growth medically commercialized —Charles Stross ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
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Diabetes cured by 2092 —Charles Stross ( 80% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
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Aging arrested or reversible by 2092 —Charles Stross ( 66% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
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By 2092, any orbital solar power stations will still be for space applications, and not ground use (eg. beaming it down as microwaves) —Charles Stross ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
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“The USA will not have been the dominant planetary superpower for at least fifty years. The EU won't have replaced it. China will be over the peak and probably a long way down the down-slope. The future belongs to someone else. Maybe Brazil or India?” —C ( 52% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
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“There will be 5-10 billion people.” —Charles Stross ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
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“Between 50% and 80% of them will be city-dwellers, and their average age will be rising.” ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
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By 2092, “20-40% of mammalian species, 20-60% of reptiles, 40-80% of amphibia, and maybe 50% or more of insects will be extinct.” —Charles Stross ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
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“HIV will be curable — either through better anti retroviral drugs or through gene therapy” by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 45% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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“Newspapers as we know them today will either not exist, or no longer print ink on paper” by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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“Half of Facebook, Google, Apple, Microsoft, Hewlett-Packard, Nokia, Sony and IBM will no longer exist” —Charles Stross ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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“gigabit wireless connection speeds will be the norm outside the home or office” by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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Genetically-modified-crop-caused famine by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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“Moore's Law will have played out by 2032” —Charles Stross ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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Cultured mammalian meat commercially available by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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All freshwater fisheries fed on processed jellyfish by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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“the trend towards urbanization continues” 2012-2032 —Charles Stross ( 85% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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Average global age higher in 2032 than 2012 —Charles Stross ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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“Cars will probably mostly be plug-in hybrids” in 2032 —Charles Stross ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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Automated driving infrastructure in First World; majority of new cars large/completely automated. —Charles Stross ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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Commercial fusion reactor online by 2063 —Charles Stross ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2063-01-01.
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Pilot net-energy fusion plant online by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 49% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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“oil will still be available and planes will still be burning it.” —Charles Stross ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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Total Chinese rice production to be less in 2032 than in 2012 ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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Climate change denial completely discredited – “about as respectable as Lysenkoism is today” —Charles Stross ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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Charles Stross will survive to 2032 ( 71% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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I will drop out of college. ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-13; known on 2014-03-31; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2014-03-31.
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Night 13: pill was Vitamin D ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-13; known on 2012-01-13; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-13.
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I will successfully complete an internet programming job (PHP/Rails/something like that) on oDesk and be paid for it before May 1. ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-13; known on 2012-05-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-05-01.
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Night 12: pill was Vitamin D ( 70% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-12; known on 2012-01-12; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-12.
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Google Search will be inaccessible to US visitors for at least 4 hours due to a “blackout” protesting pending legislation, before 2013 ( 5% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
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I will watch the 2013 movie 'Ender's Game' and like it, before 2019 ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-12; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.