Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Groupon will be delisted in 2015. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Joe Craig on 2011-11-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-07.
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By 2016, at least one reviewer of Haruhi will accept the theory that Kyon is god. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-07.
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HP MoR: Dumbledore kills Snape ( 30% confidence )
Created by shokwave on 2014-02-27; known on 2016-02-27; judged wrong by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-07.
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I will submit my job application by its deadline. ( 90% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-01-04; known on 2016-01-07; judged right by ioannes on 2016-01-06.
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Nicholas Christakis to cease to be Master of Silliman College by January 1, 2016 ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-09; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-01-06.
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Human whole-genome sequencing <=$1000 by 2020. ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-28; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2016-01-06.
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Iraq splits into 3, (either 3 distinct states or a single federal government of 3 autonomous regions), before 2016 ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-25; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2016-01-05.
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No body is found, no murder charge filed, and no confession is given regarding “MP murdering a child” story. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-11-16; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2016-01-05.
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“no matter how many scare headlines you read, ISIS will never take Baghdad” – The war nerd. ( 77% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-18; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2016-01-05.
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Barack Obama will be President of the United States as of 1st January 2016. ( 83% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2016-01-05.
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Ed Miliband will be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom as of 1st January 2016 ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2016-01-05.
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The Queen will formally abdicate this year ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-12-18; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2016-01-05.
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David Cameron will still be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom as of 1st January 2016 ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2016-01-05.
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The four main supermarket chains of the United Kingdom (Tesco, Asda, Morrison's and Sainsbury's) will all be solvent by the end of 2015. ( 86% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by doxievee on 2015-02-01; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2016-01-05.
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Conditional on my not switching programs, I will have declared a CS major by the end of my second year. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Calien on 2015-01-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Calien on 2016-01-05.
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Google will sell smart watches before 2016 ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-06; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-05.
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Argentine peso to be replaced by January 2016 ( 25% confidence )
Created by entropy on 2014-01-14; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-05.
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I will finish “Learn Python the Hard Way” by the end of 2015 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2015-12-26; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-01-04.
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'A pill to prevent sunburn' is available either over-the-counter or by prescription ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-04.
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The Fed won't raise the rate in 2015 ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jdmeagher on 2015-11-07; known on 2016-01-07; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-04.
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“We believe that by 2015 digital currency will be accepted everywhere in the U.S. – from your local corner store to Walmart. We will no longer need to carry a wallet,” PayPal President Scott Thompson ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-07-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-04.
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Adrian Fohr will succeed in his effort, 'to get %40 of Intro Microeconomics teachers to use his video blog as a teaching tool.' ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by moore.thunder on 2014-01-24; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by moore.thunder on 2016-01-04.
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Oculus will release another development kit VR headset, consumer VR headset, or an alpha/beta consumer VR headset before 2016 ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-12-28; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-04.
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2015 will be the hottest year for the entire world ever recorded (since historical records began) ( 90% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2016-01-02; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-04.
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I will perform at least 1 set of 20 pull ups before 2016. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-09-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2016-01-03.
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I will perform at least 1 set of 100 push ups before 2016. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-09-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2016-01-03.
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I will perform at least 1 set of 100 push ups and 1 set of 20 pulls up before 2016. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-09-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2016-01-03.
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I can sell my car within 2 weeks for $3k ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-11; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Idrinkitup on 2016-01-03.
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Donald Trump to be the next US President. ( 26% confidence; 73 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-30; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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Israel will not get in a large-scale war (ie >100 Israeli deaths) with any Arab state for the remainder of 2015. ( 92% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Madplatypus on 2016-01-03.
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MARC train service will not stop running on 2016-01-02 due to lack of positive train control ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-06; known on 2016-01-03; judged right by btrettel on 2016-01-03.
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Donald Trump to be the next US President. ( 26% confidence; 73 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-30; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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“Russia will just come in to pick up the pieces. I'll give it a 70% chance they'll move in before the year ends.” ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-08; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-03.
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Brent crude above $100/barrel at the beginning of 2016. (http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/crude-oil-brent.aspx) ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2014-12-15; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-03.
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Created by danielfilan on 2016-01-02; known on 2016-01-15; judged right by danielfilan on 2016-01-02.
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I will not play a single game of chess online the remainder of 2015. ( 68% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-26; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2016-01-02.
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US will not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers before 2016. ( 76% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2016-01-02.
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No terrorist attack in the USA will kill > 100 people before 2016. ( 91% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2016-01-02.
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I will weigh 64kg by 2016 ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2015-06-13; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-01-02.
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Ansh pushes the complete engine before tomorrow morning. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-01-02; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2016-01-02.
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I will find deontology convincing as a moral theory at the end of the year. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-01-02.
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In 2015 Go will become a supported development language for Android ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Alex Willmer on 2015-02-25; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Alex Willmer on 2016-01-02.
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US CO2 emissions per capita increase from 2013 to 2014 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-20; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-02.
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Greece will not announce it’s leaving the Euro before 2016. ( 59% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2016-01-02.
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ISIS will control less territory at the end of 2015 than it does right now. ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-02.
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North Korea’s government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt before 2016. ( 89% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-02.
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ISIS will continue to exist through the end of 2015. ( 97% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-02.
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Venezuela will undergo sovereign default before 2016. ( 8% confidence; 60 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-09-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-02.
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Assad will remain President of Syria for the remainder of 2015. ( 89% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-02.
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Ebola will kill fewer people in second half of 2015 than the in first half. ( 91% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02.