Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 65% | 67% | 73% | 88% | 91% | 80% | |
Sample Size | 1033 | 269 | 129 | 197 | 347 | 45 | 2020 |
Displaying all predictions made by themusicgod1. Filter by:
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Hilary Clinton goes to jail ( 10% confidence; 21 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by cjbeyer on 2016-11-16; known on 2018-06-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-06-16.
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Whistleblower reveals, in a way that is undeniable and accepted by majority of these citizens, that federal elections in all of US/CAN/EU (parliament, not necessarily member states)/UK/switzerland is rigged ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2019-01-01.
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Cisco switch will not be returned before 2017-02-01 ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-15; known on 2017-02-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-31.
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Samsung 850 EVO will not be returned before 2017-02-01 ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-15; known on 2017-02-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-31.
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Second Dell server will not need to be returned within a week ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-15; known on 2016-11-23; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-23.
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A city of population >50,000 in the United States will ban the sale of all meat products that came from a sentient animal ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Dapple on 2016-11-15; known on 2030-01-01.
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A fictional character will be elected US president in 2020 ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-14; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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A non-human animal will be elected US president in 2020 ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-14; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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Any candidate runs under the banner of the Party of Reason and Progress (PORP), at any level in the USA. ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-14; known on 2018-11-06; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.
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Politics, India – It is announced before 2016-12-01 that banks will accept old 500 and 1000 rupee notes, for exchange or for any other purpose, beyond 2016-12-30, either indefinitely or up to an extended deadline. ( 24% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2016-11-14; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by michael149 on 2016-12-02.
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Amazon removes at least one listing of the US Army Improvised Munitions Handbook from sale, on or before 2016-11-20 ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2016-11-14; known on 2016-11-21; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2016-12-11.
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As of January 1, 2017, Fifth Harmony's “Work from Home” will be the only YouTube video released in 2016 that has over a billion views. ( 65% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2017-01-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-30.
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Between 2% and 8% of the ~1500 respondents will answer “More than 50%” to my Google Surveys question “What proportion of the people currently physically present in the United States are foreign-born?” ( 51% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2016-11-25; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-15.
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Amazon Web Services will drop the storage price for S3 standard storage in its US standard (N. Virginia) region between November 13, 2016 and January 1, 2018. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2016-12-06.
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Uber will IPO before January 1, 2020. ( 50% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2020-01-02; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Amazon Web Services will introduce an m4 (or later generation “m” type instance) with more RAM and cores than its current biggest m4 machine, m4.16xlarge, before January 1, 2018. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-12-02.
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California will secede from the United States before 2021 ( 0% confidence; 34 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-13; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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TPP Passes in US (specifically through lame duck president Obama) ( 50% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-12; known on 2017-02-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-20.
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Barack Obama recognizes Palestine ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-11-12; known on 2017-02-12; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-20.
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Politics – Conditional on their loss, Donald Trump concedes within 24 hours of the final count being announced, without legal challenge of the results. ( 56% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2016-10-29; known on 2016-11-12.
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The electors in the Electoral College will give both Trump and Pence >= 270 votes ( 93% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-11; known on 2016-12-20; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-19.
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I will receive a new passport before 2017-01-20 ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-10; known on 2017-01-20; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-26.
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LePen elected president of france, 2017 ( 43% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by regex on 2017-05-07.
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US unilaterally attempts to takes over 1M$ USD from US-MEX remittances ( 68% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-10; known on 2021-01-01.
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China floats the yuan ( 47% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-10; known on 2021-01-01.
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#Calexit ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-10; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.
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Donald Trump will be sworn in as President before February 2017 ( 89% confidence; 16 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-10; known on 2017-02-01; judged right by mortehu on 2017-01-20.
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A nuclear weapon will be detonated in a non-test scenario before November 2020. ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by trishume on 2016-11-10; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-11-16.
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There will be one or more assassination attempts (successful or not) against Donald Trump during his first term as POTUS. ( 47% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2016-11-10; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
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President Trump frees/pardons either Chelsea Manning, Julian Assange, Laurie Love, Jeremy Hammond ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-10; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2021-06-11.
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2nd US civil war over, bernie sanders brokers peace ( 2% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-10; known on 2018-05-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.
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Trump's approval rating to below 30% by end of first year in office. ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-11-10; known on 2018-01-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-20.
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obamacare repealed in 6 months ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jal278 on 2016-11-10; known on 2017-05-10; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-05-11.
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United States pulls out of NATO ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sflicht on 2021-01-02.
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>32 faithless electors ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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0-15 faithless electors ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-12-29.
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16-32 faithless electors ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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0 faithless electors ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-19.
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President Trump jailed ( 1% confidence; 23 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2017-11-09; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-11-09.
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America allies with North Korea, declares war on South Korea ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.
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President Trump imprisons Hillary Clinton and her imprisonment is upheld by whatever america has left of its Judiciary ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Obama Pardons Hillary Clinton ahead of Trump presidency ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2017-02-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-24.
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homosexuality criminalized in the US ( 2% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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at least 2 political prisoners executed in US ( 84% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01.
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US presidents term limits abolished ( 2% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Abortion illegal in at least one state in the US / Roe v. Wade overturned / passed through Senate/Congress/President/Supreme Court ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01.
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President Trump Dead/Impeached ( 7% confidence; 21 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2017-11-08; judged wrong by Tenobrus on 2017-11-09.
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Jérémie Zimmermann gets caught up in some kind of sex scandal (a la Julian Assange/Jacob Appelbaum) and is forced to withdraw from public life ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-08; known on 2021-11-08.
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i live to use quell ( 33% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-08; known on 2096-01-01.
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Conditional on trying, I will successfully bench 200 pounds for one rep. ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-11-07; known on 2016-12-07; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2016-11-10.
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Clinton wins by 5 points or more. ( 24% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-11-07; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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US goes to Defcon 1, by 13:00 EST nov 8, 2016 ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-07; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Massacre at Standing Rock, >50 people killed 2 weeks after election results decided ( 53% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.
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At least one “faithless elector” in the 2016 U.S. Electoral College. ( 66% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2016-11-07; known on 2017-01-12; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-19.
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Whoever wins the State of Pennsylvania will win the 2016 US Presidential Election ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-11-06; known on 2016-12-06; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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redefinition of Kg before planck's constant is fixed ( 53% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-05; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Construction of Musk Hyperloop will be ready for passengers by 2018 ( 3% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-05; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-02.
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Flamanville 3 reactor startup ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-05; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Fessenheim Nuclear Power Plant closes ( 73% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-05; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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linux 3.2 no longer supported by kernel dev team ( 54% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-04; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Mars Insight successfully lands on mars ( 31% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-04; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Children's Wish Foundation is wrong, they did give money to Brad Wall's Saskatchewan Party ( 63% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-16.
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Hillary Clinton will run for president and be nominated by the Democrats and win the election in 2016. ( 38% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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I will get a response from R before 2016-11-10 ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-03; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-10.
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Clinton-traed iana or icann lobbying to permaremove wikileaks ability to use DNS ( 15% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-03; known on 2017-01-14; judged wrong by prtlmpf on 2017-07-10.
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AT&T buys Verizon, or vice versa. ( 28% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-03; known on 2026-01-01.
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The largest operating system/platform by marketshare will have been completely built from first principles by DeepMind/AGI, not building on existing OS before 2017 ( 44% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-03; known on 2029-01-01.
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The largest operating system/platform by marketshare will be recognizable as being built off of Curtis Yarvin's ideas ( 5% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-03; known on 2029-01-01.
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Facebook has <=50M active users in 2021 ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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Instapaper has shut down by end 2017 ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by penten on 2016-11-02; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by penten on 2018-01-02.
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North Korea will launch (or attempt to launch) a ballistic missile in the last two months of 2016 ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-11-02; known on 2017-02-02; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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A longterm (with humans present at least sixth months) colony will occur in Asteroid Belt before it occurs on Mars. ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-01; known on 2100-01-01.
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Native Americans kidnap and torture at least 400 US citizens over 2017-2032 ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-01; known on 2033-01-01.
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>=10 IEDs used on US highways in 2021 ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-01; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-01-01.
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Upon finishing reading it, I will conclude that bill C-22, the text as of first reading, is a step in the right direction ( 47% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-31; known on 2016-12-04; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-31.
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S identifies as vegetarian by 15 ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by penten on 2016-10-31; known on 2031-10-31.
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LP identifies as vegetarian by end of 2018 ( 46% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-10-31; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by penten on 2019-01-02.
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zcash price is below 1 BTC ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-10-31; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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zcash price is below 0.4 BTC ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by penten on 2016-10-31; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Within three years, Open Phil makes a grant to an animal advocacy org to support consumer-side intervention(s). ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-10-31; known on 2019-10-31; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-31.
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Number of countries bombed by the US in 2020 is > 7 ( 87% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-31; known on 2021-01-01.
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Number of countries bombed by the US in 2020 is < 7 ( 12% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-31; known on 2021-01-01.
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Number of countries bombed by the US in 2020 is = 7 ( 4% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-31; known on 2021-01-01.
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Number of countries bombed by the US in 2017 is < 7 ( 18% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-31; known on 2018-01-01.
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Number of countries bombed by the US in 2017 is = 7 ( 33% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-31; known on 2018-01-01.
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Number of countries bombed by the US in 2017 is > 7 ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-31; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Osuniev on 2019-01-27.
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jason scott still alive, running a javascript emulator ( 25% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-30; known on 2046-10-31.
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github still exists ( 7% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-30; known on 2046-10-31.
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github still exists ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-30; known on 2030-12-31.
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jason scott still alive, running a javascript emulator ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-30; known on 2030-12-31.
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I will match with anyone on Tinder who I can confirm is not a robot or scam or spam, before 2017 ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-30; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-06.
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I will meet IRL anyone found via Tinder, before 2017 ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-30; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-31.
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Open Phil's evaluation of MIRI in 2018 will be more optimistic than it was in 2016 at the time of its grant writeup. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-10-29; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2017-11-09.
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UK Government agrees to take in more migrant children than previously planned before start of 2016-11-06. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2016-10-29; known on 2016-11-06; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2016-11-08.
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zcash price in bitcoin between [0.001, 500] BTC/ZEC ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-29; known on 2016-11-28; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-28.
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bitcoin is no longer around, but zcash is ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-29; known on 2021-10-28; judged wrong by Toadface on 2021-10-31.
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Zcash hacked / value goes to 0 before marketcap hits 1T$USD ( 77% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-28; known on 2070-01-01.
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Kim Dotcom will release (either directly or through WikiLeaks or another party) at least 3,000 new and legitimate Hillary Clinton emails, before election day ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-26; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-08.
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(gnome-related?) dconf/suspend issues I'm having tonight do not exist in xfce ( 64% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-26; known on 2016-10-31; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-26.
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I will read 52 or more books in 2016 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-25; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-18.