Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 62% | 71% | 73% | 84% | 98% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 13 | 14 | 15 | 19 | 43 | 5 | 109 |
Displaying all predictions made by Osuniev. Filter by:
-
Kanye West will win the presidency in 2024 or 2028 ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-11-24; known on 2029-01-01.
-
A vaccine will be out and at least 50M people will be vaccinated by COVID’s second birthday party (November 17th 2021) ( 90% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Liging on 2020-11-15; known on 2021-11-17; judged right by kuudes on 2021-02-20.
-
COVID, UK – It is not a violation of any guideline or law for a single adult living alone to travel from Edinburgh to Carnforth on the 18th of December 2020 to stay with family. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-11-15; known on 2020-12-19; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-01-03.
-
[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 40M ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-12-31.
-
[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 100k ( 97% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-04-30.
-
The Yellow Jackets are still active and present in media in March ( 64% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Osuniev on 2019-01-27; known on 2019-03-16; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-03-17.
-
“No other EU country announces plan to leave” ( 85% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-01.
-
“No city where a member of the general public can ride self-driving car without attendant” ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
-
“Global carbon emissions will increase” ( 91% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-07.
-
“Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2018” ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-07.
-
“More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018” ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-07.
-
“No additional countries will adopt a universal basic income” ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-01-03.
-
“The United Kingdom will leave the European Union” ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
-
North Korea to test a nuclear weapon in 2019 ( 26% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-11; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
-
Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026 ( 3% confidence; 18 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-11; known on 2026-01-01.
-
Self driving vehicle (level 4) drives legally on public UK roads before end 2017 ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-09-29; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2018-01-11.
-
Self driving vehicle (level 4) drives legally on public UK roads before end 2019 ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by penten on 2016-09-29; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
-
2017 will be the hottest year on record. ( 52% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Osuniev on 2016-11-21; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by Osuniev on 2018-02-02.
-
Jean Luc Mélenchon becomes French president ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Osuniev on 2016-11-21; known on 2017-05-07; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-05-07.
-
Trump survives his presidency ( 92% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Osuniev on 2016-11-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
-
There is a nuclear incident (someone uses a nuke) somewhere in the world in the next 4 years ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Osuniev on 2016-11-21; known on 2020-11-21; judged wrong by platypus42 on 2020-11-26.
-
Hilary Clinton goes to jail ( 10% confidence; 21 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by cjbeyer on 2016-11-16; known on 2018-06-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-06-16.
-
A nuclear weapon will be detonated in a non-test scenario before November 2020. ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by trishume on 2016-11-10; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-11-16.
-
There will be one or more assassination attempts (successful or not) against Donald Trump during his first term as POTUS. ( 47% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2016-11-10; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
-
President Trump jailed ( 1% confidence; 23 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2017-11-09; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-11-09.
-
Number of countries bombed by the US in 2017 is > 7 ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-31; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Osuniev on 2019-01-27.
-
Humans to land on Mars by November 24, 2046 ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-10-24; known on 2046-11-24.
-
It will be necessary for EU citizens (not previously resident in the UK) to apply for a visa to enter the UK (for both travel and to work) within 3 years. ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by penten on 2016-10-10; known on 2019-10-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-10-10.
-
No nuclear weapon detonated before 2017-06-01 killing >= 1 civilian before 2017-06-01 that we know about ( 87% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-06-01.
-
Major (>100 death toll) terrorist attack in Europe (all present and past EEA members) this year. ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-02.
-
Legal battles over forehead penises, and the rights of the young rebels who choose to have them, begin. ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-03; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-31.
-
It will be revealed that Trump's goal in running for President was to see Clinton elected, in a kind of false-flag shill operation. ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JohnWittle on 2016-08-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
-
Le Pen elected president of france 2017 ( 28% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-07.
-
US economic collapse before mar 2017: many banks fail, emergency measures taken by US fed taken & fail, mass drop in available credit, and at least 2 international news sources(la monde, der speigel) using the term 'economic collapse' to describe it ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-01.
-
Surface of the earth still habitable for human beings by 2050 (whether or not human beings are, in fact, on the surface) ( 77% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-20; known on 2050-01-01.
-
Alain Juppé wins the “Les Republicains” primary (France). ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by leo_gri on 2016-03-14; known on 2016-11-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-29.
-
Boko Haram will be defeated this year. ( 44% confidence; 5 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-06; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-12-25.
-
The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship. ( 46% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.
-
Bharat's carbon dioxide peaking year will be 2030. ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-03; known on 2025-12-31.
-
2016 will be the hottest year ever recorded for the entire world (by the time historical records ever began) ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2017-01-02; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2017-01-19.
-
HPMOR: The ritual Quirrell mentions in chapter 74 using a rope that has hanged a man and a sword that has killed a woman will be revealed to create a dementor when cast. ( 56% confidence; 19 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2012-09-17; known on 2016-01-02; judged right by Osuniev on 2015-03-28.
-
HP MoR: We will learn that the True Patronus by itself can block the Killing Curse, no matter who casts each spell. ( 46% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by 75th on 2013-08-13; known on 2015-07-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.
-
HP MoR: Bacon's diary will turn out to be just a diary. ( 56% confidence; 19 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-02-01; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-03.
-
HP MoR: Hat & Cloak is Voldemort, but not Quirrel ( 23% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-03-16; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
-
You – yes, you – do not actually possess a rudimentary self-consistent model of either rationality, yourself or the world around you that you consistently re-adjust using the feedback from this tool. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by reallyyesreally on 2014-12-03; known on 2015-07-02.
-
There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020. ( 63% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-12-03; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
-
There will be a manned mission to Mars by 2017 ( 7% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-29; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2017-01-16.
-
I'll still be alive at the end of 2014 ( 97% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Osuniev on 2014-08-03; known on 2015-01-16; judged right by woodse on 2015-01-16.
-
HP MoR: Harry had a hand in the disappearance of Hermione's corpse. ( 80% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-18; known on 2015-06-23; judged right by Roxolan on 2015-03-01.
-
HP MOR: Quirrell was responsible for releasing the troll, but a third party redirected it to Hermione ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by solipsist on 2014-05-26; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.
-
Nintendo will release an official Pokemon RPG on Android by the end of 2015 ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by quicklystarfish on 2014-04-01; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by player_03 on 2016-01-01.
-
HP MoR: That Bellatrix is Black not Lestrange will be important. ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by booradleytron on 2014-03-06; known on 2014-10-16; judged wrong by Osuniev on 2015-03-28.
-
HP MoR: The phrase “the very stars in heaven” in the prophecy refers to the Black family, as per http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/hvg/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/9ajh . ( 4% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-03; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by ygert on 2015-03-23.
-
Within five years, Pope Francis (or a successor) makes a comment in an official or unofficial capacity that there is no literal hell. ( 11% confidence; 21 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by adbge on 2014-01-07; known on 2019-01-07; judged right by Osuniev on 2019-01-27.
-
HP MoR: the general consensus among the Wizengamot and/or the populus of magical Britain in the wake of the events of chapters 88-90 will blame Lucius Malfoy for releasing the troll in Hogwarts as a means of getting revenge on Hermione. ( 15% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-02; known on 2014-02-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-01-02.
-
HP MoR: Voldemort never intended Harry's own death on the night of his parents' death. ( 50% confidence; 21 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2011-09-04; known on 2015-11-02; judged right by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
-
HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Sirius Black ( 12% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2011-09-04; known on 2015-11-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
-
CIV PBF 88 : Arabia wins ( 60% confidence )
Created by Osuniev on 2013-09-18; known on 2013-10-10; judged right by Osuniev on 2014-04-19.
-
By 2050 travelling by plane would be a luxury (less than 1 % of the world population) (because of resource depletion, or others) . ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Osuniev on 2013-09-05; known on 2050-01-01.
-
Sid Meier's Civilization TBG : Game designer will rulethat it is impossible to switch governments many times during SoT using pyramids while gaining each SoT benefits ( 95% confidence )
Created by Osuniev on 2013-09-13; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by Osuniev on 2014-06-13.
-
Tyrion is one of the 3 Dragon's heads. ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Osuniev on 2013-09-05; known on 2015-01-01.
-
Jon Snow is one of the 3 dragon's head. ( 52% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Osuniev on 2013-09-05; known on 2015-01-01.
-
US to launch strikes on Syria by September 21, 2013 ( 23% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-08-31; known on 2013-09-21; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-09-21.
-
It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ( 1% confidence; 21 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2013-08-26; known on 2028-08-26.
-
[HPMOR] Dumbledore did not kill (intentionally or unintentionally) Hermione. ( 79% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by linkhyrule5 on 2013-08-16; known on 2014-07-02; judged right by linkhyrule5 on 2015-02-20.
-
HPMOR : The Dark Lord that Harry will vanquish is not Quirrelmort but Death itself. (http://lesswrong.com/lw/b7s/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/841h) ( 55% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Osuniev on 2013-07-31; known on 2014-07-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.
-
HP MOR: “And then he greeted Death as an old friend and went with him gladly, departing this life as equals.” this is a quote from harry potter cannon. my prediction is that being marked as an equal in HPMOR refers to the invisibility cloak. ( 12% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by esran on 2013-07-28; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
-
HP MoR: Quirinus Quirrell is actually Nymphadora Tonks. ( 0% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-25; known on 2014-07-25; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-13.
-
HP MoR: The snake patronus is from Quirrell. ( 1% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-25; known on 2013-08-21; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2013-08-15.
-
HP MoR: The snake patronus is from Draco. ( 90% confidence; 22 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-25; known on 2013-08-21; judged right by lavalamp on 2013-08-15.
-
HP MoR: Harry will learn the killing curse by the end of the year or Quirrell will be disappointed that Harry has not learned the killing curse by the end of the year. ( 31% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Cakoluchiam on 2013-07-24; known on 2014-05-15; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
-
Boston attack will turn out to be a domestic issue rather than politically motivated as judged by the inclusion of a terrorist organisation. ( 54% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by a0c4a123f7 on 2013-04-15; known on 2013-12-25; judged right by a0c4a123f7 on 2014-01-01.
-
Blizzcon 2014 will announce Titan, a game made by Blizzard Activision. During the announcement they will reveal that the game does not have a subscription fee, but shares one. They will plan to tie in WoW's sub fee with Titans sub fee, to make 1 sub fee.. ( 41% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Dodgson on 2013-06-02; known on 2013-06-02; judged wrong by quanticle on 2014-09-24.
-
Boston Marathon bombing perpetrated by ethnically white male. ( 61% confidence; 17 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-04-17; known on 2015-04-17; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2015-04-09.
-
France s next president (2017 election unless Hollande resign) will be right-wing ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Osuniev on 2013-04-15; known on 2017-04-15; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-06.
-
The next US president (after Obama) will also be a Democrat. ( 53% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Osuniev on 2013-04-15; known on 2016-11-15; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
-
The Supreme Court will overturn the ability to patent genes. ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-04-14; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-06-13.
-
Within two months of making this prediction, the US Senate will pass some form of bill with the stated intention of making it more difficult to buy guns (gun registry, assault weapons ban, etc.). ( 38% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-04-12; known on 2013-06-12; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-06-15.
-
A nuclear disaster equal to or worse than Fukushima will happen this year. ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers )
Created by hedges on 2013-04-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
-
In 25 years, infanticide will be legal in at least one U.S. state. ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2013-04-04; known on 2038-04-04.
-
In 50 years, pedophilia (defined as no age restrictions on consenting partners) will be legal in at least one U.S. state. ( 1% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2013-04-04; known on 2063-04-04.
-
There will be a computer input device that is faster at text input than a keyboard (average of 1.5x speedup or more), reasonably quiet (not standard text dictation), and does not require the use of the eyes. Used by 20% of software developers. ( 25% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by zpinter on 2013-03-31; known on 2018-03-31; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-04-05.
-
Supremes make same-sex marriage law of the land. ( 38% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-03-27; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Patrick Brinich-Langlois on 2014-01-01.
-
A nationwide effort to legalize polygamy ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by elmerfudd1 on 2013-03-26; known on 2025-06-20.
-
HPMoR: Quirrels prediction that Voldemort killed the snake in the chamber of secrets will turn out to incorrect. ( 16% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ChristianKl on 2013-03-24; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by player_03 on 2015-03-04.
-
Cyprus will leave the Euro in 2013 ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by phreeza on 2013-03-21; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by hedges on 2013-12-31.
-
Italy's President (Napolitano) will resign before May 2013 ( 27% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-03-15; known on 2013-05-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-04-22.
-
Detection of free oxygen on an exoplanet by end of the year. ( 17% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-03-12; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by phreeza on 2014-01-01.
-
MetaMed to face legal challenges from regulators by 2016 (S.T. Rev via Twitter). ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-03-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2015-09-02.
-
Jon Snow alive at beginning of The Winds of Winter ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Leo on 2013-01-19; known on 2025-01-01.
-
The US government will not have defaulted by the end of 2013. ( 96% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-15; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
-
Assuming Obama wins second term, repubs will try to impeach him sometime during the his second term ( 11% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-24; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
-
elevator will be control by voice? ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-16; known on 2013-04-16; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2013-04-16.
-
An alternative to using seat belts (i.e., seatbelt-less seats) will be invented for air travel by 2013. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by kochikvp on 2010-08-30; known on 2013-12-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-09-05.
-
The proportion of the population that believes that Human-induced climate change is a reality will decline to below 50% by 2014. ( 36% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by kochikvp on 2010-08-27; known on 2014-12-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-16.
-
“Barring an unexpected decline in human numbers from current levels, biodiversity will not reverse its downward trend, air and water pollution will not reverse their increasing trends,(all according to World Resources Institute data) and the WHO will not ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by Grognor on 2014-06-15.