Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 63% | 43% | 49% | 51% | 71% | |
Sample Size | 18 | 16 | 28 | 37 | 96 | 190 | 385 |
Displaying all predictions made by Raahul_Kumar. Filter by:
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250 GW of solar and 100 GW wind power by 2030. 40 % of Bharat's total power capacity(850 GW estimate) will come from renewable sources by 2030. Official Climate change pledge. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-06; known on 2030-12-31.
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Bharat's Department of Atomic Energy (DAE) target:63000 MWe by the year 2032. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-06; known on 2032-12-31.
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Nuclear power in Bharat will be 16 Gw by 2030. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-06; known on 2030-12-31.
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Bharat's nuclear power will double to 10 000 MW by 2020.https://tinyurl.com/qds7raq ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-06; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-09.
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Air Chief Marshal Arup Raha(IAF, भारतीय वायु सेना, Bharatiya Vāyu Senā) We are looking forward to building up our combat fleet to 42 squadrons by the end of the 14th plan, by 2027 ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-05; known on 2027-12-31.
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Extreme poverty(WB definition 1.90 per day) to be eliminated by 2025. Poverty declined from 36 % in 1990 to 15 per cent in 2011. Projections indicate that the global extreme poverty rate has fallen further, to 9.6%, as of 2015. ( 47% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-09; known on 2025-05-28.
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Bharat's carbon dioxide peaking year will be 2030. ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-03; known on 2025-12-31.
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Chief of the World Coal Association (WCA) Benjamin Sporton “Demand for coal in 2040 globally will be 33 % bigger than it is now. " ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-03; known on 2030-12-25.
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USA will be No 1 nation in mass shootings for 2013-15. ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-03; known on 2015-12-25; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-19.
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Bharat will reduce emission intensity of the economy by 25% from its 2005 levels by 2020. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-02; known on 2020-12-25.
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Bharat will reduce emission intensity of the economy by 35% from its 2005 level by 2030 ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-02; known on 2030-12-31.
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Zhongguo(中国) will be world's largest economy in nominal(USD, current prices) terms by 2020. ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-02; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-30.
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Bharat will lead the world in 4G. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-01; known on 2018-12-11; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-20.
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Quantum computing will be accessible to the world's public, for sale or rent, by mid-2025. ( 44% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by luxpir on 2015-09-29; known on 2025-07-01.
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Major Atmospheric Cerenkov Experiment Telescope, the world's 2nd largest γ ray telescope will be completed in 2017 ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-27; known on 2017-12-31.
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Chandrayaan-2 (चन्द्रयान-२) 2nd lunar exploration mission. Launched by GSLV includes a lunar orbiter, rover and a lander landing on the moon and exploring. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-27; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Bharat will produce 2.4—2.5 million tonne aluminium in 2015-16 and be ranked 3rd or 4th in the world from 2.1 million in 2014. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-27; known on 2016-12-25.
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Zhongguo(中国) will outspend the US on science by 2020 ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-27; known on 2020-12-25.
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I will have a rating above 1500 on lichess.org at the end of 2015 ( 70% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-09-25; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
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Antibiotics prescribed less than 50 times per 1000 Americans in 2050 ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-21; known on 2051-01-01.
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Paraplegia due to spinal cord injury cured in greater than 90% of cases before 2050 ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-24; known on 2050-01-01.
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Solar power to become cheaper than or equivalent to conventional coal prices over the next three years and reach Rs 4/kWh-Rs4.5/kWh by FY18, says India Ratings and Research. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-24; known on 2018-12-31.
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Bhāratīya Nau Senā (भारतीय नौ सेना) wil be a 200 ship fleet by 2027 – Admiral P Murugesan ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-24; known on 2027-12-31.
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Invisibility cloak capable of concealing human sized objects developed before 2050 ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-24; known on 2050-01-01.
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Bank nonperforming loans will exceed 2% of gross total loans in China by the end of 2016. ( 63% confidence; 9 wagers; 38 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-09-23; known on 2017-01-02; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-02-25.
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Bank nonperforming loans will exceed 2.5% of gross total loans in China by the end of 2016. ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-09-23; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-08.
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The VIX index will go above 27 by October 1st 2015 ( 57% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-09-23; known on 2015-10-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-09-29.
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Faster-than-light communication developed before 2050 ( 1% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.
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Faster-than-light travel developed before 2050 ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.
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Time travel developed before 2050 ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.
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Mouse, rat, rabbit, or other small mammal successfully revived from cryopreservation before 2050 ( 29% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-17; known on 2050-01-01.
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BRICS will pass the USA's GDP at USD in current prices(nominal). ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-17; known on 2016-09-25; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-10-14.
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Due to Bharat's industrialization prices will boom in an exact replay of what happened in 2001-11 commodity bull market driven by Zhongguo. Commodities prices, as measured by the Continuous Commodity Index (CCI), will rise at least 275% since the start ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-15; known on 2026-12-31.
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Bharatnet is the world’s largest rural broadband connectivity project. 600 million rural citizens of Bharat will be linked across 250 000 Gram Panchayats(village) through optical fibre. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-15; known on 2017-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-27.
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The 2015 budget has 60 GW of wind power by 2022. Bharat will then place 2nd in the world from 5th. Source: Global Wind Energy Council http://www.gwec.net/ ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-15; known on 2022-12-25.
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Non-Liberal Prime Minister after the next Australian Federal Election ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Caleb Withers on 2015-09-14; known on 2016-11-25; judged wrong by waveman on 2016-07-16.
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Bharat will pass the USA and EU in electricity production by 2029. 2nd largest oil importer in 2020. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-14; known on 2029-12-31.
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Donald Trump will lose the New Hampshire primary. ( 56% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by KBVMD on 2015-09-13; known on 2016-02-09; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-02-10.
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Donald Trump will lose the Iowa caucuses. ( 61% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by KBVMD on 2015-09-13; known on 2016-02-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-02.
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Bharat will be the world's second largest producer and consumer of steel in 2016(from 4th in 2014).Production 140 MT and consumption 104MT. ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-13; known on 2016-12-25.
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Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) of Bharat has released a year-by-year breakdown of solar capacity targets by states to reach its overall 100 GW solar capacity target by 2022. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-13; known on 2022-12-25.
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The BRICS will pass the G7 in percentage of world GDP in 2016. Data source will be the IMF. As of 2015: 31.86% G7 vs BRICS 30.58%. ( 34% confidence; 8 wagers; 22 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-11; known on 2016-12-25; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-07-06.
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The BRICS share will pass the combined US + EU in percentage of world GDP in 2019. ( 86% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-11; known on 2019-12-25; judged unknown by sebbit on 2019-12-05.
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Hillary Clinton will be the 2016 Democratic nominee for US President. ( 81% confidence; 39 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by m2bn on 2015-09-11; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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BRIC will rank in the top 5 of military spenders by 2030. Zhongguo 2,Bharat 3,Rossiya 4,Brasil 5 This in USD at current prices. Data source is Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-10; known on 2031-01-01.
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By 2019, for the first time in history, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato) will not account for a majority of worldwide defence expenditure. It accounted for almost two-thirds of global spending as recently as 2010,” said IHS. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-10; known on 2019-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.
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Universal Secondary Education by 2017 for Bharat.Gross Enrolment Ratio, which is at 78.51% will be at least 97%. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-10; known on 2017-12-27; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-27.
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Bharat will cut under 5 mortality rate to 25 deaths or fewer per 1000 live births in 15 years. Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-10; known on 2030-12-31.
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Bharat to be third-biggest defence spender by 2020 -IHS Defence Budgets Annual Report ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-08; known on 2020-12-25.
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A heat engine which beats the Carnot efficiency will be developed before 2050 ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-07; known on 2050-01-01.
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In five years, we will carry one device instead of many (phone, tablet, laptop), with various external inputs based on need (keyboard, mouse) & outputs (big screen, projector). ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Legioona on 2015-09-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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New Zealand will vote to change its flag in the 2016 referendum. ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-09-05; known on 2016-03-25; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-24.
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Bernie Sanders is the next US President elect ( 12% confidence; 30 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-09-03; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by Afforess on 2016-10-06.
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The Schengen Agreement will be terminated within 5 years. ( 26% confidence; 15 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by danpop on 2015-08-29; known on 2018-08-29; judged wrong by sdr on 2018-08-29.
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World's total fertility rate will fall to replacement rate by 2025. In 1960, women worldwide had an average of 5 children. The rate has since halved, and in 2012, women had an average of 2.5 children across all regions. The World Bank is the source. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-08-29; known on 2025-12-31.
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Ted Cruz to win the Republican nomination for President. ( 14% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-27; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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By January 1, 2035 superconductor with critical temperature at least 200 K at 1 atmosphere of pressure will be discovered. ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-27; known on 2035-01-01.
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Bernie Sanders will win the 2016 Iowa Democratic caucus. ( 29% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-08-25; known on 2016-02-02; judged wrong by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-02.
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Universal basic income will be adopted in at least 50% of the G20 countries within 10 years ( 10% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by sflicht on 2015-08-07; known on 2025-08-08.
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The Renminbi will eclipse the US dollar as Reserve Currency in 2022. Central banks will hold their reserves in renminbi instead of the USD as they currently do. The USD will be No2 instead of No1. The IMF will be the source of data. ( 15% confidence; 14 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-17; known on 2022-05-28; judged wrong by amadeu on 2022-05-26.
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By 2042, solar energy will cost half or less of what fossil-fuel based alternatives do. ( 53% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-15; known on 2042-01-01.
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By 2025, “solar energy will cost half or less of what fossil-fuel-based alternatives do” – Vivek Wadhwa ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-15; known on 2025-01-01.
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“By 2020, solar energy will be price-competitive with energy generated from fossil fuels on an unsubsidized basis in most parts of the world.” – Vivek Wadhwa ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Donald Trump to be the next elected President of the United Stated. ( 21% confidence; 53 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-10; known on 2016-11-12; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-09.
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Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-08-10; known on 2025-12-31.
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Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-08-10; known on 2025-12-31.
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Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-08-10; known on 2025-12-31.
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Lockheed Martin claims up to 3500 F-35 will be ordered. A look at the price and the previous track record of the F-22 instead leads to a certainty that all orders combined will be lucky to hit 940. That is 1/4 of LM claims. ( 52% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-21; known on 2020-05-23.
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India to have its own manned space flight by January 1, 2025 ( 62% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-07; known on 2025-01-01.
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Woolly Mammoth to be resurrected by 2100 ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-06; known on 2100-01-01.
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There will NOT be a “World War III” within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's “allies” and NATO and/or western europe) ( 93% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Snorkelfarsan on 2015-07-31; known on 2025-07-01.
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WWIII starts before 2030. ( 8% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Dak on 2015-07-31; known on 2030-07-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030 ( 19% confidence; 17 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-29; known on 2031-01-01.
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“Some p2p cryptocurrency is going to become THE world reserve currency this decade” – Jacob Cannell ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2021-01-01.
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Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2099-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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Donald Trump to run as a third party candidate in the 2016 election. ( 11% confidence; 19 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-23; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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TTIP will not come into force ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by modulus on 2015-07-21; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
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No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040. ( 86% confidence; 24 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-19; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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Zhōnghuá will be the world's biggest economy in both PPP and GDP terms in 2022 as measured by the IMF. It is already the world's biggest economy in PPP terms and 2nd in nominal terms (2015). Lant Pritchett and Lawrence H. Summers disagree. ( 61% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-14; known on 2022-12-27; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-19.
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Volume of physical books sold in 2020 to be greater than that in 2015 ( 27% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-17; known on 2021-01-01.
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US 2016 Presidential election to be Trump v. Sanders ( 5% confidence; 40 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-17; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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Greece will default ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mareyes on 2015-07-13; known on 2016-07-13; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-14.
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2015 will be the hottest year for the entire world ever recorded (since historical records began) ( 90% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2016-01-02; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-04.
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India to successfully launch at least 15 more commercial satellites before 2018. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-12; known on 2018-01-16; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-16.
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At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030 ( 28% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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voat.co to become a top 300 site by the end of 2015 ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-31.
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Scotland to secede from the UK in 2017. ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-09; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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Las Malvinas to be liberated by Argentina. ( 35% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-09; known on 2017-10-27; judged wrong by Pablo on 2017-10-27.
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Bharat's ranking in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business report would be at least 50 in 2018. ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-09; known on 2018-07-27.
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Bharat's ranking in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business report would be at least 105, up from 142 last year. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-09; known on 2015-10-27; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-28.
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“Russia will just come in to pick up the pieces. I'll give it a 70% chance they'll move in before the year ends.” ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-08; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-03.
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Puerto Rico will default this year. Puerto Rican government is $73 billion in debt, similar debt to New York — a very large state economy — but it only has the population of Connecticut. ( 100% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-07; known on 2015-12-27; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-08-04.
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Mitt Romney will decide to run for President in 2016 ( 12% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by SalTnutZ1 on 2015-07-05; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-31.
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Pedophilia will be legalized in 20 years or in DSM6, whichever comes LATER. Legalized in particular means: age-of-consent abolished completely in any single country of so-called First World (or whatever is analogous to that in 20 years); ownership and dis ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jkadlubo on 2015-07-04; known on 2035-07-03.
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Democrats to control US Senate after 2016 election. ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-03; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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France will default on its debt ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-02; known on 2015-12-27; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-12-27.
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UK will default on its debt. ( 55% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-02; known on 2015-12-27; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-12-27.
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Ukraine will default on its debt ( 74% confidence; 7 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-02; known on 2015-12-27; judged right by kuudes on 2015-10-06.
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The June 2015 TOP500 supercomputer rankings will include 4 or more computers in the top 10 with GPUs available for processing ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-05; known on 2015-08-02; judged wrong by btrettel on 2015-07-16.
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By January 30th, 2016 War between Satan and God, clearly happening to those on Earth. ( 0% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-30; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-02.