Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 40% | 40% | 57% | 0% | 83% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 5 | 5 | 14 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 36 |
Displaying all predictions made by quanticle. Filter by:
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Apple will release a Macbook or Macbook Pro that uses a CPU designed by someone other than Intel or AMD. ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by quanticle on 2019-12-29; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-10.
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Apple will introduce some kind of augmented reality wearable device. ( 42% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by quanticle on 2019-05-27; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by quanticle on 2021-01-01.
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/r/gwern will have been banned by Reddit ( 7% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by quanticle on 2019-05-18; known on 2025-01-01.
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Apple will discontinue the 13" Macbook Pro model that lacks the touchbar. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by quanticle on 2019-05-18; known on 2020-05-01; judged right by quanticle on 2019-12-29.
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Leslie Roy “Les” Moonves is accused of sexual harassment/assault by at least one woman ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2018-02-11; known on 2020-02-11; judged right by two2thehead on 2018-07-28.
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Roy Stewart Moore drops out of the Alabama senate race ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-11-13; known on 2018-01-05; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-12-13.
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Hillary Clinton will get at least 332 Electoral College votes in the 2016 Presidential Election. ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by quanticle on 2016-10-22; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by quanticle on 2016-11-09.
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Hillary Clinton will win at least 320 electoral votes in the 2016 Presidential Election ( 67% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-10-22; known on 2016-12-22; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
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Clinton wins at least one of the following: AK, GA, MO ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-10-11; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee for President in 2016. ( 52% confidence; 88 wagers; 55 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-14; known on 2016-07-20; judged right by elephantower on 2016-07-16.
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The Priv will be the last Blackberry branded phone released by Research in Motion as an independent entity. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by quanticle on 2015-12-24; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by quanticle on 2017-01-02.
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Research In Motion will either declare bankruptcy protection or will be acquired. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by quanticle on 2015-12-24; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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There are ground troops from one or more then EU member states that are at least 1000 persons strong on ground of what is currently Syria at least once before the end of prediction. ( 30% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2015-11-16; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-07-01.
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The Long Range Strike Bomber will cost at least $846 million per plane (in FY2016 dollars). ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by quanticle on 2015-10-28; known on 2025-01-01.
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Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license. ( 14% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by quanticle on 2015-08-14; known on 2025-08-15.
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At least one major stock exchange will have 24/7 trading hours before the end of 2030 ( 63% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2015-07-23; known on 2030-12-31; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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Syriza will not be part of the majority coalition after the next Greek election. ( 44% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by quanticle on 2015-07-15; known on 2019-01-20; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-09-24.
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Kurdistan will be a UN member by 2018. ( 30% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-07-12; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Greece will cease using the Euro as its currency. ( 22% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by quanticle on 2015-07-12; known on 2015-07-31; judged wrong by quanticle on 2015-07-31.
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Syriza will remain in power through 2020 ( 33% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-07-12; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Greece will return to the Drachma and abandon the Euro currency ( 40% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2015-07-05; known on 2016-07-05; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-05.
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Hillary Clinton to be the next US President, and win popular vote by at least 4.5% ( 27% confidence; 17 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-05; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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UK will default on its debt. ( 55% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-02; known on 2015-12-27; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-12-27.
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Saudi Arabia and Iran will be at war before the end of 2020. ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-06-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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Greece will default on it's sovereign debt, or exit the Eurozone (possibly both) ( 65% confidence; 19 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Afforess on 2015-11-12.
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Either Microsoft will sue Google using a Nokia patent, or Google will sue Microsoft using a Motorola patent. ( 44% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by quanticle on 2013-09-03; known on 2014-09-03; judged wrong by quanticle on 2014-09-03.
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Amazon.com will break Amazon Web Services earnings out into it's own category in financial statements, rather than aggregating it into “other revenue”. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by quanticle on 2013-06-03; known on 2015-06-30; judged right by quanticle on 2015-06-25.
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Blizzcon 2014 will announce Titan, a game made by Blizzard Activision. During the announcement they will reveal that the game does not have a subscription fee, but shares one. They will plan to tie in WoW's sub fee with Titans sub fee, to make 1 sub fee.. ( 41% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Dodgson on 2013-06-02; known on 2013-06-02; judged wrong by quanticle on 2014-09-24.
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Dropbox will move off of Amazon S3 before they go public or before 2015 ( 49% confidence; 8 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by workbean on 2013-06-01; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by quanticle on 2016-03-16.
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Browsers will replace Javascript with a VM as an standard way to run code. ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by wslh on 2013-05-28; known on 2023-05-28.
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Within 2 years, the global usage share of IE (all versions), will be below 20%, as measured by statcounter.com ( 42% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2012-08-25; known on 2014-08-26; judged wrong by Grognor on 2014-08-26.
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On 31 Dec 2011, there will be no generally available consumer-level PC, as delivered from the factory, that has a clock speed of more than 5 GHz. ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Richard_Kennaway on 2011-01-02; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-14.
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'Google will buy Twitter' in 2011 —Chris O'Brien ( 18% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.