Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Politics, UK – Conservative Party announces, in some manner, the intent to retain the triple lock on pensions throughout the current parliament, before the end of July 2017. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-13; known on 2017-08-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-08-01.
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Politics, UK – Queen's Speech backed by the Conservative Party passes vote in the House of Commons by the end of July 2017. ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-13; known on 2017-08-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-08-01.
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Kmart will file for bankruptcy by August of 2017 ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by custom on 2017-03-29; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-01.
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There will be an attempted assassination (including uncovered/failed assassination plots) of Donald Trump before his term ends (20 Jan 2021) ( 49% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com on 2017-07-25; known on 2021-01-21; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-12.
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[In the Unholy Consult by R. Scott Bakker] the Heron Spear will be used ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jamesaguilar on 2017-06-25; known on 2017-07-20; judged wrong by jamesaguilar on 2017-07-30.
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[In the Unholy Consult by R. Scott Bakker] Achmanian will find the Heron Spear. ( 35% confidence )
Created by jamesaguilar on 2017-06-25; known on 2017-07-20; judged wrong by jamesaguilar on 2017-07-30.
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[In the Unholy Consult by R. Scott Bakker] Achmanian will be killed ( 30% confidence )
Created by jamesaguilar on 2017-06-25; known on 2017-07-20; judged wrong by jamesaguilar on 2017-07-30.
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[In the Unholy Consult by R. Scott Bakker] the world will be destroyed by Kellhus. ( 10% confidence )
Created by jamesaguilar on 2017-06-25; known on 2017-07-20; judged wrong by jamesaguilar on 2017-07-30.
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[In the Unholy Consult by R. Scott Bakker] the world will be destroyed or its future destruction will be strongly implied. ( 20% confidence )
Created by jamesaguilar on 2017-06-25; known on 2017-07-20; judged right by jamesaguilar on 2017-07-30.
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[In the Unholy Consult by R. Scott Bakker] Kellhus will be killed by some entity other than Kellhus ( 45% confidence )
Created by jamesaguilar on 2017-06-25; known on 2017-07-20; judged right by jamesaguilar on 2017-07-30.
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[In the Unholy Consult by R. Scott Bakker] Kellhus will die ( 60% confidence )
Created by jamesaguilar on 2017-06-25; known on 2017-07-20; judged right by jamesaguilar on 2017-07-30.
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Politics, Italy – C-Star docks in Catania before the end of the 28th of July 2017. ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-21; known on 2017-07-29; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-07-30.
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North Korea tests another ICBM within one week ( 75% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-07-25; known on 2017-08-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-07-29.
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Reince Priebus (Reinhold Richard Priebus) will not be the White House Chief of Staff before the end of 2017 ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-07-27; known on 2018-01-05; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-07-29.
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Politics, UK – Charlie Gard dies before the start of the 9th of August 2017. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-09; known on 2017-08-09; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-07-28.
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I will meet with someone from my Summer school (ЛШ) cycle whom I didn't know before during the next 2 months #personal ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-15; known on 2017-09-15; judged right by crabman on 2017-07-28.
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Лизу-whaf позовут в ШАД (2017) ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-30; known on 2017-08-05; judged right by crabman on 2017-07-28.
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Personal, Business Interactions – BT has not incorrectly billed my bank account by the 1st of September 2017. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-22; known on 2017-09-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-07-28.
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Habidatum supervisors will tell me to switch to social graph project #personal ( 70% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-27; known on 2017-07-28; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-07-27.
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My supervisors will tell me that I did wrong things and was not effective, or that I should really change what I am doing, e.g. be less academic ( 30% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-27; known on 2017-07-27; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-07-27.
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Politics, UK – Charlie Gard is ruled to be moved to the home of their parents, with the ruling made on the 26th of July 2017. ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-26; known on 2017-07-26; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-07-27.
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Habidatum will invite me to non-paid internship ( 55% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-25; known on 2017-07-26; judged right by crabman on 2017-07-27.
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They don't serve a meal on the plane ( 90% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-07-25; known on 2017-07-25; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2017-07-26.
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Politics, Canada – Winstone Blackmore is found guilty of polygamy. ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-24; known on 2017-07-25; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-07-26.
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Politics, Syria – No reports that the US or UK governments regard as credible of the Syrian government acting in violation of the ceasefire within a week of the ceasefire taking effect, not even if someone else violated it first. ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-08; known on 2017-07-17; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-07-24.
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[from tue jul 26 until jul 26 or whenever either fork ends] linear regression( abs(ETH_day[i] – ETC_day[i])),(ETC_day[i]+ETH_day[i])/bitcoin_day[i] ) slope is negative and r > 0.5 ( 53% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-27; known on 2017-07-26; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-23.
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Price of ETH at 2017-07-20 00:37 UTC+0 will be higher than NOW (2017-07-19 21:37 UTC+0) ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-19; known on 2017-07-20; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-07-20.
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The next actor to play The Doctor (on Doctor Who) will be female. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-08-15; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2017-07-16.
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Kim Jong Un is Supreme Leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea on July 15, 2017 ( 94% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-27; known on 2017-07-16; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-07-16.
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1 year after block halvening, main USD exchange price will be at least 4.61% higher than the main USD exchange price was at the time of the block halvening. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-07; known on 2017-07-16; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-16.
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I will finish reading Finite and Infinite Games within 1,000 years. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-12; known on 3017-04-12; judged right by Somni on 2017-07-16.
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http://saneoualhadath.me ( 0% confidence )
Created by saneoualhadath on 2017-07-15; known on 2017-07-15; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-15.
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Brazilian President Michel Temer will fall, renounce or have impeachment procedures initiated against him until mid-July 2017. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Neonblitz on 2017-05-20; known on 2017-07-15; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-07-15.
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Community, EA – Ethtruism.com's affiliated AMF fundraiser will get donations amounting to saving at least two lives in expectation, by the 14th of July. ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-13; known on 2017-07-15; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-07-15.
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I will get a 5 on all my AP exams. ( 80% confidence )
Created by thebaelfire on 2015-08-22; known on 2017-06-16; judged wrong by thebaelfire on 2017-07-14.
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I will get a 4 or 5 on all my AP exams ( 98% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by thebaelfire on 2015-08-22; known on 2017-06-16; judged right by thebaelfire on 2017-07-14.
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July 14 Soyuz Kanopus-V-IK launches successfully ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-07-13; known on 2017-07-16; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-07-14.
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Kmart will file for bankruptcy by August of 2017 ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by custom on 2017-03-29; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-01.
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From today until January 1st, 2018 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 43% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-07-12.
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From today until January 1st, 2019 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-07-12.
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From today until January 1st, 2020 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-07-12.
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From today until January 1st, 2021 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-07-12.
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From today until January 1st, 2022 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 19% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-07-12.
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From today until January 1st, 2023 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-07-12.
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Obama leaves the White House with an approval rating of 60 or higher. ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-10; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by prtlmpf on 2017-07-12.
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Atlassian shares will trade for $30 by June 1 2017. ( 75% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-05-13; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by prtlmpf on 2017-07-12.
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My thinkpad's battery will run out during the bus drive to Summer School ( 60% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-08; known on 2017-07-08; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-07-12.
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Parents' loan July payment > $999 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-06-03; known on 2017-07-02; judged right by ioannes on 2017-07-11.
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Open Phil makes a grant on meat alternatives within five years. ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-09-07; known on 2021-09-07; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2017-07-11.
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Clinton-traed iana or icann lobbying to permaremove wikileaks ability to use DNS ( 15% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-03; known on 2017-01-14; judged wrong by prtlmpf on 2017-07-10.