Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 65% | 67% | 73% | 88% | 91% | 80% | |
Sample Size | 1033 | 269 | 129 | 197 | 347 | 45 | 2020 |
Displaying all predictions made by themusicgod1. Filter by:
-
2017 LessWrong codebase migration will happen and existing LessWrong accounts will stop working (forcing users to sign up for fresh accounts) ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2018-01-01.
-
2017 LessWrong codebase migration will happen and will cause massive linkrot that will last for at least one month ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2018-01-01.
-
LessWrong will use Telescope Nova rather than its old reddit codebase by 2018-01-01 ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Issa Rice on 2018-01-01.
-
LessWrong will accept posts written in Markdown (any flavor) on its web interface by 2018-01-01 ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Issa Rice on 2018-01-01.
-
Ontario leaves cap & trade system ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-25; known on 2021-01-01.
-
Trump's investigation into illegal voting will report at least 500,000 illegal votes cast in the 2016 election. ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-25; known on 2021-01-25.
-
1.5 trillion $ in war tribute extracted from Iraq in oil “profit sharing” agreement to the US ( 22% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-25; known on 2037-01-01.
-
Twitter shut down. ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-25; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2018-01-01.
-
Trump silences twitter users from talking about climate change ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-25; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-12-31.
-
REINS act signed into law ( 75% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-24; known on 2017-12-31.
-
A CRISPR clinical trial will be conducted on humans in the US. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
-
“Data science” hype will continue to increase, as measured by Google Trends hits / world job openings. ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
-
At least one PlayStation-level data breach. ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2017-05-10.
-
No human head transplant results in a conscious subject. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
-
There will be a larger DDoS attack than the October Dyn attack. ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
-
EMDrive thrust will not be positively replicated by a reliable independent party, like Tau Zero. (Not Shawyer, White, Fetti.) ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
-
Brent crude will finish above $60 per barrel. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
-
Bitcoin will end the year above $400. ( 84% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by timmartin on 2017-12-31.
-
2016 will remain the hottest year on record. ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
-
F-35 program will not be curtailed. ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
-
Obamacare will not be substantially cut (i.e. no, >10% spending cut or coverage retraction). ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31.
-
Deportations from the US will not increase by more than a quarter. ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
-
TPP will not be ratified this year. ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-01-31; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-31.
-
Trump’s approval will be below 55% throughout the year. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
-
Trump will end the year above 35% approval. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
-
Trump's first state visit will be to the UK. ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-01-31; judged wrong by technicalities on 2017-05-23.
-
US will not get involved in any new war with death toll of >100 US soldiers ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
-
No criminal investigation of Hillary Clinton in 2017. ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by ioannes on 2018-01-01.
-
Trump will not be impeached. ( 89% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
-
Total media mentions of ISIL continues to decline. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
-
Syrian ceasefire (Russian brokered, Dec 16) will not last. ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
-
Raqqa will remain under the control of ISIL. ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-29.
-
The Iran nuclear deal will hold (i.e. no Iranian uranium enrichment) ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
-
Re: Peace Prize. Erdogan will not be so honoured. ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2017-11-21.
-
Merkel will win the Nobel Peace Prize, with Abdullah II of Jordan and others. ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by technicalities on 2017-11-21.
-
Ethiopia will see GDP growth of >= 7%. ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
-
Pro-Russian forces will continue to hold Donetsk and Luhansk. ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
-
Putin’s domestic approval will remain above 50% in whatever reputable polls exist there. ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
-
China will not enter recession this year. ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
-
May's approval rating above 30% at year end. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
-
The UK triggers Article 50. ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-03-31; judged right by custom on 2017-03-29.
-
Front National will not end up in power. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-06-30; judged right by technicalities on 2017-06-19.
-
Le Pen will lose the presidential election. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-06-30; judged right by technicalities on 2017-05-07.
-
Front National will gain 30+ seats in the French legislative election. ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-06-30; judged wrong by technicalities on 2017-06-19.
-
Fewer refugees admitted to European countries in 2017 than 2016. ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
-
No country will (initiate proceedings to) leave the Eurozone. ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
-
No terrorist attack outside of Iraq and Syria causes >300 deaths in 2017. ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
-
No terrorist attack causes >400 deaths in the less developed world in 2017 (HDI < 0.8). ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-29.
-
No terrorist attack causes >100 deaths in the developed world in 2017 (HDI > 0.8). ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
-
Total death toll from malaria by year end 2017 will be < 500,000 ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31.
-
Total death toll from malaria by year end 2017 will be > 350,000. ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31.
-
Terrorism death toll by year end 2017 will be < 30,000 ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
-
I go to Hearst Castle this weekend ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-01-30; judged right by ioannes on 2017-01-30.
-
President Trump will break from recent tradition and have either more than one comedic act the White House Correspondents' Dinner, or no comedian at all. ( 19% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by atomicspacemann on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-05-05; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-30.
-
The US will run a deficit for 2017 of over 300 billion, with a likely >300 billion deficit in following years. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by atomicspacemann on 2017-01-23; known on 2018-01-07.
-
President Trump will rescind Chelsea Manning's commutation before it takes effect on May 17, 2017 ( 12% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by atomicspacemann on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-05-18; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-05-17.
-
President Trump impeached for conspiring with enemies (russia or otherwise) ( 4% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-23; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
China probe lands on far side of the moon, returns samples ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-23; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
National Guard called in to shut down #WomensMarch, at least 1 dead ( 19% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-22; known on 2017-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-30.
-
Legitimate 512 GB USB flash drives will be available on Amazon from at least two different reputable sellers for less than $100 per drive by January 1, 2018. ( 45% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2018-01-03; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-03.
-
North Korea will launch (or attempt to launch) a ballistic missile before the end of 2017 ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-01-22; known on 2018-01-15; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-02-12.
-
Politics – President Trump signs an executive order reversing at least one of Obama's LGBT protection executive orders by the end of 2017-01-27. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-01-21; known on 2017-01-28; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-29.
-
Politics – President Trump signs an executive order ordering research into, preparatory work for, or work on border fencing or walls before the end of 2017-01-27 ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-01-21; known on 2017-01-28; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-01-25.
-
I was wrong ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-11; known on 2017-01-21.
-
No terrorist attack in the in any First World country (European Union, UK, US, Japan, Australia) will kill >1000 people in 2017 ( 90% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-20; known on 2018-01-16; judged right by ioannes on 2018-01-17.
-
No terrorist attack in the in any First World country (European Union, UK, US, Japan, Australia) will kill >500 people in 2017 ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-20; known on 2018-01-16; judged right by ioannes on 2018-01-17.
-
Motorcycle crash or breakdown on trip to San Diego ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-20; known on 2017-01-23; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-01-22.
-
Motorcycle crash on trip to San Diego ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-20; known on 2017-01-23; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-01-22.
-
My boat gets in a difficult situation next Thursday (“difficult situation” = run aground, crash, man overboard, medical emergency onboard, etc.) ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-20; known on 2017-01-27; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-01-27.
-
Trump tweeting frequency drops to < 1/week in the month after his inauguration (month of January 21st to February 21st) ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-19; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-01-31.
-
Lauri Love outlives the United States of America ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-19; known on 2150-01-01.
-
The internet dies. Functionally the internet is no more with no IP replacement ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-19; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
-
Jeff Foxworthy provides comedy at the White House Correspondents' Dinner ( 9% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-19; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-30.
-
Jimmy Fallon provides comedy at the White House Correspondents' Dinner ( 8% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-19; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-30.
-
Andrew Dice Clay provides comedy at the White House Correspondents' Dinne ( 9% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-19; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-30.
-
Milo Yiannopoulos provides light hearted commentary as comedic relief during White House Correspondents' Dinner ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-19; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-04-30.
-
large, existing firms that make medical devices will fail to make inroads on marketshare % of wearable health devices wrt small disruptors ( 66% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-19; known on 2017-12-31.
-
US puts another human footprint on the moon ( 19% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-18; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
-
AGI is developed by 2050 (on Earth) ( 55% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-01-18; known on 2050-01-01.
-
Politics – Julian Assange travels to the US consensually within 2017. ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-01-18; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-01-03.
-
War involving either active troop deployments from/fighting in all of: US, UK, China, At least one Scandinavian country, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Russia ( 13% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-17; known on 2017-12-31.
-
compulsory conscription in sweden, or sweden invaded ( 57% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-17; known on 2021-01-01.
-
FTSE 100 over 7,000 on July 1st ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by penten on 2017-01-17; known on 2017-07-01; judged right by penten on 2017-07-03.
-
Wikileaks get shame-labelled as fake news by NSA/Facebook ( 69% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-17; known on 2018-06-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-04-21.
-
0 US combat deaths, either US or enemy, after Donald Trump gets elected. US at peace with the world ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-28.
-
Something gets leaked that makes Donald Trump look dumb. ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2021-01-01.
-
The 2020 presidential election will be Donald Trump v. Oprah Winfrey. ( 3% confidence; 25 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2017-01-16; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
-
Books 2016 Q4 published by February 1 2017 ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-16; known on 2017-02-02; judged right by ioannes on 2017-01-31.
-
ATF Elimination Act passes ( 51% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2021-01-01.
-
alexa/siri/ok google/their competitor have better conversational skills ( 52% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2017-12-31.
-
See some kind of CISA/SOPA-like legislation thrown around and some will pass, be legislation on things that are “not legislatable” or logically impossible ( 87% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2017-12-31.
-
Trump Inauguration has lower ratings than or between Obama and Bush Inauguration ( 49% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2017-12-31.
-
2 or more of { US, Russia, China, Israel } engaged in physical war AND lead up to said war involves { kill switches, mass DDOS, some other kind of computer-related 'attack' } ( 19% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-14.
-
2 or more of { US, Russia, China } engaged in physical war AND lead up to said war involves { kill switches, mass DDOS, some other kind of computer-related 'attack' } ( 18% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2017-12-31.
-
Somebody does something “really cool” with augmented reality ( 69% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2017-12-31.
-
First bipedal robots used in police active patrol duty ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2017-12-31.
-
human beings engaged against first bipedal robots in real battle ( 13% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
-
first bipedal soldiers deployed are russian made ( 17% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2017-12-31.
-
Virtual Reality used by <1% of US+Can population ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2017-12-31.
-
Somebody causes fire, augmented reality to blame ( 37% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2017-12-31.