Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 53% | 65% | 78% | 86% | 94% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 616 | 437 | 419 | 458 | 711 | 175 | 2816 |
Displaying all predictions made by JoshuaZ. Filter by:
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Mark Herring to be next attorney general of Virginia. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-12; known on 2014-01-15; judged right by ygert on 2014-02-25.
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Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 USA election. ( 43% confidence; 38 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2013-11-11; known on 2016-11-30; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Intrade will be open for business by 31 December 2014 ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by najdorf on 2013-11-11; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by najdorf on 2014-12-31.
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After X-Men DFP, Hugh Jackman will reprise his role as Wolverine in another movie. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Omid on 2013-11-11; known on 2023-03-01.
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A country with >1,000,000 population will write the official version of their laws in a conlang (Esperanto/Lojban etc.) ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ChristianKl on 2013-10-29; known on 2053-10-30.
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43a4c3b7d0a0654e1919ad6e7cbfa6f8d41bcce8f1320fbe511b6d7c38609ce5a2d39328e02e9777b339152987ea02b3f8adb57d84377fa7ccb708658b7d2edc ( 74% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-03; known on 2014-06-03; judged right by gwern on 2014-06-03.
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HP MoR: Voldemort never intended Harry's own death on the night of his parents' death. ( 50% confidence; 21 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2011-09-04; known on 2015-11-02; judged right by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Sirius Black ( 12% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2011-09-04; known on 2015-11-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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Dragos Ruiu's “badBIOS” claims will be verified as true and due to a attack package akin to Flame/Stuxnet ( 24% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-01; known on 2015-11-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-11-01.
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Terry McAuliffe to win the Viriginia's governor race. ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-10-28; known on 2013-11-07; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-06.
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Hillary Clinton will go unopposed in 2016 Democratic primaries. ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-10-18; known on 2016-12-31.
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Both major party presidential candidates will express support for softening punishments for drug offenses during the 2016 US presidential campaign. ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-10-18; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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I will receive at least 90% on the Discrete Math midterm from today. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by tylercurtis on 2013-10-21; known on 2013-11-11; judged right by tylercurtis on 2013-11-13.
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Ted Cruz will not win a term as US Senator contiguous with his current term. ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-10-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Yvain will be fired (or asked to resign) from his Psychiatrist position due to breach of confidentiality in the next 2 years. ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Tenoke on 2013-07-18; known on 2015-07-18; judged wrong by Malcolm Ocean on 2015-07-19.
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Democrats to gain seats in the next House midterm general election. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-10-16; known on 2014-11-06; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2014-11-06.
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There won't be any questions involving little-omega or little-o notation on the algorithms midterm this week. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-15; known on 2013-10-19; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-18.
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Government shutdown to extend past November 1 ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-10-09; known on 2013-11-02; judged wrong by nshepperd on 2013-10-17.
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Wendy Davis elected governor of Texas. ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Omid on 2013-10-05; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-11-05.
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SR: The FBI/government will gain control in any way of DPR's ~฿600,000 within 2 years. ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-04; known on 2015-10-04.
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Government shutdown will continue past Oct 15, 2013 (ie more than 2 weeks since its beginning) ( 43% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-10-04; known on 2013-10-16; judged right by prototrout on 2013-10-16.
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Government shutdown will continue past Oct 8, 2013 (ie more than a week since its beginning) ( 79% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-10-04; known on 2013-10-08; judged right by foo on 2013-10-08.
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http://www.rememberthe13th.com/ NASA has made a historic discovery that will shake the entire planet. This announcement will be released to the media on November 13th, 2013. It will be a day to remember and One for the history books. Nothing world sha ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mimosomal on 2013-10-04; known on 2013-11-13; judged wrong by procran on 2013-11-13.
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US govt will not default on its debt before Mar 1, 2014 ( 96% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-10-03; known on 2014-03-01; judged right by scrafty on 2014-03-04.
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Republicans to gain control of the Senate at the next midterm election. ( 42% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-10-02; known on 2015-01-05; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-05.
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Democrats to gain control of the House at the next midterm election. ( 26% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-10-02; known on 2015-01-05; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-05.
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Republicans to have fewer seats in the House after the midterm election than they currently have (233). ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-10-02; known on 2015-01-05; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-05.
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Government shutdown to end by October 25 ( 71% confidence; 21 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-10-01; known on 2013-10-25; judged right by nshepperd on 2013-10-17.
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US government shutdown will occur. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-09-29; known on 2013-10-03; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-10-01.
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In the 2016 US presidential election, dealing with the NSA etc. will not be ignored and will be a serious debate issue, on par with the economy or abortion. ( 39% confidence; 12 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-09-25; known on 2016-11-02; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-11-09.
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There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023. ( 66% confidence; 19 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by qap on 2013-09-21; known on 2024-01-01.
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“I make the falsifiable prediction that during Pope Francis's tenure the Catholic Church will shrink, its proportional membership will diminish and its contributions per member will drop.” — EY (on Facebook) ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-09-20; known on 2023-09-20.
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Democratic candidate to win 2016 presidential election by greater margin than Obama did in 2012. ( 34% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-09-20; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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By 2050 travelling by plane would be a luxury (less than 1 % of the world population) (because of resource depletion, or others) . ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Osuniev on 2013-09-05; known on 2050-01-01.
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Human drivers will be illegal on some USA roads by 2030 ( 44% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2013-09-14; known on 2030-01-01.
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NASA will not announce “Voyager 1 has entered interstellar space” again within the next 5 years ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mfb on 2013-09-13; known on 2018-12-31.
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no new chapters of hpmor will be finished by October 1st ( 64% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Flipnash on 2013-09-13; known on 2013-10-01; judged right by apeterson on 2013-10-01.
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“Confession Bear” will be permanently banned on reddit.com/r/adviceanimals before 2014 ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Omid on 2013-09-05; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Vulture on 2014-01-20.
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Jon Snow is one of the 3 dragon's head. ( 52% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Osuniev on 2013-09-05; known on 2015-01-01.
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Either Microsoft will sue Google using a Nokia patent, or Google will sue Microsoft using a Motorola patent. ( 44% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by quanticle on 2013-09-03; known on 2014-09-03; judged wrong by quanticle on 2014-09-03.
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Larry's talk will have more than 15 attendees ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by benkuhn on 2013-09-03; known on 2013-09-13; judged right by benkuhn on 2013-09-13.
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No one will win Sam Harris's prize for convincing him that his book is wrong ( 87% confidence; 19 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Omid on 2013-09-01; known on 2014-11-01; judged right by Matt2000 on 2014-11-01.
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US to launch strikes on Syria by September 21, 2013 ( 23% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-08-31; known on 2013-09-21; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-09-21.
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It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ( 1% confidence; 21 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2013-08-26; known on 2028-08-26.
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Predictionbook's overall statistics will remain overconfident (Confidence > accuracy in all six buckets) by 2015. ( 82% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sdr on 2013-08-24; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by atroche on 2015-01-01.
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The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033. ( 18% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Omid on 2013-08-22; known on 2033-01-01.
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In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia. ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Omid on 2013-08-22; known on 2034-06-01.
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HPMOR: Dumbledore is Grindelwald ( 2% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dusk on 2013-08-20; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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Tesla Motors / SpaceX / Elon Musk will create a working hyperloop by 2030. ( 17% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-08-12; known on 2030-01-01.
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Tesla Motors / SpaceX / Elon Musk will create a working hyperloop by 2050. ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-08-12; known on 2050-01-01.
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Tesla Motors / SpaceX / Elon Musk will create a working hyperloop by 2100. ( 52% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-08-12; known on 2100-01-01.
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HPMoR will update with chapter 97 on Wednesday the 14th of August. ( 73% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ygert on 2013-08-11; known on 2013-08-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-08-15.
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The Overdue Predictions page on PredictionBook will be modified to not display withdrawn or changed to private (by someone else) predictions by 2014. ( 36% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2013-08-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-01-01.
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Social Experiment: By 01-01-2012, the average estimate on this prediction will be greater than or equal to 75%. ( 77% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by RobertLumley on 2011-11-15; known on 9999-01-02.
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Both Congressman Duncan and Senator Corker will individually respond to my e-mail protesting SOPA/PIPA like their office said they would. ( 9% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2012-01-18; known on 2999-02-19; judged unknown by RobertLumley on 2012-04-06.
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Jeff Bezos will use his influence as owner of the Washington Post to run for Senate by 2020 ( 11% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by workbean on 2013-08-06; known on 2020-01-16; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-17.
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Bill predicts that the phrase “0-caching” or “n-caching” will become common hip teen slang by 2018 ( 16% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by optimistindustries on 2013-08-03; known on 2018-08-03; judged wrong by enolan on 2018-08-27.
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Rand Paul will win the presidential election. He will go against the NSA, surveillance, drone strikes… all the “hot issues” for the new generation. Thousands of people will register as Republicans and vote for him to fight for a free Internet. ( 3% confidence; 21 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by tinatoys on 2013-08-03; known on 2016-11-06; judged wrong by jgauthier on 2016-11-07.
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HPMOR : The Dark Lord that Harry will vanquish is not Quirrelmort but Death itself. (http://lesswrong.com/lw/b7s/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/841h) ( 55% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Osuniev on 2013-07-31; known on 2014-07-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.
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SMBC Comics: A comic involving penis size as the cross product of legs will appear before September 2013 ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2013-07-28; known on 2013-09-01; judged right by mfb on 2013-08-02.
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HP MOR: “And then he greeted Death as an old friend and went with him gladly, departing this life as equals.” this is a quote from harry potter cannon. my prediction is that being marked as an equal in HPMOR refers to the invisibility cloak. ( 12% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by esran on 2013-07-28; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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Alexei Navalny becomes president or prime minister of Russia by the year 2028. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-07-26; known on 2028-12-31.
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HP MoR: Quirinus Quirrell is actually Nymphadora Tonks. ( 0% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-25; known on 2014-07-25; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-13.
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A manned flyby of Venus will happen in the next 20 years ( 6% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by anotherfate on 2013-07-25; known on 2033-07-25.
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HP MoR: It will be revealed (either in the story or by Eliezer outside it) that it is impossible to lie in Parseltongue. ( 45% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by 75th on 2013-07-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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30 copies of the “Further reading an exercises” will be sufficient at the talk on intermediate complexity classes at the Less Wrong meetup. ( 65% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-07-13; known on 2013-07-14; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-07-14.
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Astronomers will detect a planet where alcohol is thought to rain from the sky. ( 36% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-07-12; known on 2023-01-01.
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I will within 20 years have a view of Less Wrong and its associated community as having ran into essentially the same failings that the Objectivists ran into. ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-07-09; known on 2033-07-09.
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More than 1000 known exoplanets by the end 2014 ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by mfb on 2013-07-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by mfb on 2013-10-23.
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New Mersenne prime discovered by January 1, 2016. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-07-06; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Jach on 2016-01-10.
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HP MoR: The Philosopher's Stone is an Horcrux. ( 13% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Kurosymph on 2013-07-02; known on 2014-01-16; judged wrong by player_03 on 2015-03-16.
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HP MoR: Minerva McGonagall said “Not your fault” in Chapter 89. ( 12% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jaibot on 2013-07-02; known on 2013-09-02; judged wrong by jaibot on 2013-07-06.
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Morsi will be out of power by December 1, 2013 ( 66% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-07-01; known on 2013-12-01; judged right by phreeza on 2013-07-04.
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As a currently healthy, 17 year old male, I will personally achieve medical immortality within my natural lifespan. (note: this does not include cryonic preservation and revival) ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by DiscyD3rp on 2013-07-01; known on 2113-07-01.
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HPMoR : ch 90 (or sooner): Harry would have to exploit the Dementor/Patronum valnerability to gain the Dark/Light Lordship. ( 27% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by mat33 on 2012-04-01; known on 2013-07-04; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-07-02.
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HPMoR : ch 120 (or sooner): After understanding the death's place in evolution of life and mind, Harry would refuse become a Creator of the Words. ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by mat33 on 2012-04-01; known on 2015-07-01; judged wrong by David on 2015-06-23.
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HP MoR: Hermione will make a Horcrux chronologically before or during the events of ch89 ( 17% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-07-01; known on 2013-09-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2015-03-23.
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HP MoR: the troll attack in ch88-89 was executed by Severus Snape ( 18% confidence; 23 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-06-30; known on 2015-06-30; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035. ( 19% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2013-06-27; known on 2035-12-31.
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Snowden arrested by US authorities before 2014 ( 24% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2013-06-23; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-12-31.
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Zhang's bound reduced to 50,000 by June 29,2013 ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-06-20; known on 2013-06-29; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-06-28.
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I will have submitted my paper on Artin repreentations by 11:30 AM EST Monay ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-06-20; known on 2013-06-24; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-06-28.
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I will graduate from Denison University by May 17, 2014. ( 94% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-06-17; known on 2014-05-17; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2014-05-18.
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Before 2023, Charlie Stross will write and publish a novel that features a Roko's Basilisk-like plot device ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by halfwit on 2013-06-14; known on 2023-06-14.
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P=ZPP proven by 2045 ( 82% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-06-07; known on 2045-01-01.
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Blizzcon 2014 will announce Titan, a game made by Blizzard Activision. During the announcement they will reveal that the game does not have a subscription fee, but shares one. They will plan to tie in WoW's sub fee with Titans sub fee, to make 1 sub fee.. ( 41% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Dodgson on 2013-06-02; known on 2013-06-02; judged wrong by quanticle on 2014-09-24.
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Opportunity Rover to function until December 15 ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-06-01; known on 2013-12-15; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-15.
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General election will occur in Tunisia before the end of 2013 ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lilia on 2013-05-31; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.
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By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S. ( 38% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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Rob Ford will not the mayor of Toronto by January 1, 2015 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-05-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-02.
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Tony Abbott will be the Prime Minister following the 2013 Australian Federal Election ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by atroche on 2013-05-26; known on 2013-12-01; judged right by atroche on 2013-12-01.
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No Magic card printed before 2017 will explicitly copy a planeswalker (copying a permanent is okay). ( 51% confidence; 9 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-05-23; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Roxolan on 2017-01-01.
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German Minister of Defence will resign before the election ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2013-05-22; known on 2013-09-30; judged wrong by phreeza on 2013-09-23.
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By 2014, US will have passed to law to give a tax break to corporations to bring their money back home ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-01-14.
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Ted Nelson, inventor of hypertext: Shinichi Mochizuki is the real Satoshi Nakamoto ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-21; known on 2040-01-01.
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By 2050, a professional league would have raised the height of the rims in basketball above 10 feet. ( 39% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-21; known on 2050-01-01.
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SpaceX will launch more than 2 rockets this year. ( 71% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kiba on 2013-05-21; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by kiba on 2013-12-11.
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Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030 ( 29% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-20; known on 2030-01-01.
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Infinitely many primes with gap <= 16, proven by 2050 ( 57% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-05-20; known on 2050-01-16.
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Google will survive for 15 more years ( 91% confidence; 29 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-05-19; known on 2028-05-19.