Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 33% | 69% | 61% | 71% | 89% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 9 | 62 | 89 | 111 | 141 | 16 | 428 |
Displaying all predictions made by Medea. Filter by:
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Turkey to have announced withdrawal from NATO ( 15% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-29; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-29.
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The world gross product of 2099 will not be less than the world gross product of 2020. ( 89% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-08-29; known on 2100-01-01.
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The average age of death for humans in 2099 is not going to be lower than 70 years. ( 78% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-08-29; known on 2100-01-01.
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Polar Bears will go extinct in the wild before 2025 ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by predoindk on 2019-08-23; known on 2025-08-16.
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[Politics] By 2019-12-14, Hong Kong government to pass law that would allow extradition to mainland PRC ( 35% confidence; 19 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-06-13; known on 2019-12-14; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2019-12-15.
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There will be a new iPhone in 2019 that uses a USB-C connector instead of Lightning ( 19% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jamesrom on 2019-06-11; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2019-11-01.
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No new American bootprints on the moon by the end of Calendar Year 2024. ( 86% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2019-06-01; known on 2025-01-01.
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US to conduct nuclear weapons test by 2019-08-30 ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2019-08-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-01.
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Andrew Yang will win the Democratic nomination. ( 8% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by skateboard34 on 2019-03-25; known on 2020-07-20; judged wrong by skateboard34 on 2020-03-05.
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[In 2019 at least one country in Europe (other than UK) to] hold a vote in parliament/legislature on leaving the EU ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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[In 2019 at least one country in Europe (other than UK) to] hold a referendum on leaving the EU ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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Number of human truck drivers in the US to fall by 50% by 2024 EOY ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-07; known on 2025-01-01.
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[Politics] Right-populists to gain in EU parliamentary election ( 75% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-05-27; judged right by amadeu on 2019-05-26.
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[Politics] The Mueller investigation will not produce any criminal charges against Trump ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by RedScharlach on 2019-02-15; known on 2020-11-03; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-22.
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Bitcoin finishes year < $10k USD ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Coagulopath on 2019-02-13; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
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“Bitcoin above 5000” ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-01.
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“Bitcoin above 3000” ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-01.
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“Bitcoin above 1000” ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-01.
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Emperor Akihito to abdicate as scheduled on 2019-04-30 ( 93% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-21; known on 2019-05-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-30.
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One of {Uber, Twitter, Tumblr, Facebook, Magic Leap, Coinbase} will collapse. ( 58% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-08; known on 2025-01-01.
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Donald Trump to be impeached in 2019 ( 24% confidence; 25 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-19.
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Vladimir Putin won't be the President of the Russian Federation by March 2024 (i.e. he won't be able to finish his 4th term) ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Stommelen on 2018-12-21; known on 2024-03-17.
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Britain will have a second referendum on “Brexit.” ( 18% confidence; 19 wagers )
Created by balfours_ghost on 2018-12-11; known on 2019-03-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-04-24.
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Doomslayer from Doom is a Smash Ultimate DLC character ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gallerdude on 2018-12-10; known on 2020-02-01; judged wrong by Medea on 2020-03-13.
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Sans from Undertale is a Smash Ultimate DLC character ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gallerdude on 2018-12-10; known on 2020-02-01; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2021-10-05.
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Steve from Minecraft is a Smash Ultimate DLC character ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gallerdude on 2018-12-10; known on 2020-02-15; judged right by gallerdude on 2021-08-18.
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Half-Life 3 will be released in the next 5 years ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by jazzsolo on 2018-12-03; known on 2023-12-31.
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Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX) ( 3% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Leo on 2018-10-23; known on 2028-10-23.
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People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts. ( 33% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Leo on 2018-10-21; known on 2028-10-21.
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The World Health Organization or the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will declare an influenza pandemic before 2019? ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukefreeman on 2018-09-04; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by lukefreeman on 2019-01-01.
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Runaway methane release from permafrost and other sources to result in near extinction or imminent extinction of humanity by August 15, 2038 ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-08-02; known on 2038-08-15.
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Donald Trump will be reelected. ( 44% confidence; 22 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by alvastarr on 2018-07-26; known on 2020-11-05; judged wrong by avi on 2020-11-07.
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Tesla goes bankrupt sometime before 01/01/2020. ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by FestiveBleak on 2018-07-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Donald Trump will explicitly express support for Taiwanese independence this year. ( 6% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-07-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-02.
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Roe v. Wade and related precedents (e.g. Casey) effectively overturned by December 31, 2025. ( 42% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-06-29; known on 2026-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-18.
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There will be national or global economic data that is widely regarded (by econ bloggers and mainstream media outlets) as a bursting of the higher education bubble. ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dnti808 on 2018-06-29; known on 2019-06-29; judged wrong by dnti808 on 2019-06-30.
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Demonstration of energy-positive fusion power plant by the end of 2035. ( 31% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2018-05-10; known on 2035-12-31.
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Taiwan will declare independence in 2018. ( 1% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un will meet in 2018. ( 78% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by avi on 2018-06-12.
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Trump wins Nobel ( 10% confidence; 41 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2018-05-03; known on 2030-01-01.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Hilary Clinton ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-17; known on 2020-09-16; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Bernie Sanders ( 13% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-17; known on 2020-09-16; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
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Bitcoin will be <15k on January 1st 2019. ( 74% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-17; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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World War 3 to begin in 2018. (Formal war involving at least three large, developed nations, with some on separate sides). ( 0% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-04-16; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2019-01-01.
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Brexit will successfully have take place by August 2019 ( 32% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Finma on 2018-03-03; known on 2019-01-08; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-02.
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Oprah Winfrey will run for president in 2020. ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by iCrown on 2018-02-26; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2020-11-01.
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Trump’s approval rating lower than 50% at end of year. ( 93% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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I predict that humans will land on mars by 2030 ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bacon1001 on 2018-01-25; known on 2030-01-01.
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North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022 ( 5% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2018-01-19; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2022-01-01.
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Hillary Clinton is indicted by the end of 2018 ( 3% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2019-01-01.
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Congress will not extend copyright durations in 2018. ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Temeraire on 2018-01-12; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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At least one country will decide its head of state by a reality show with real time votes by 2050 ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by volis on 2018-01-11; known on 2050-01-01.
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Kim Jong Un is leader of North Korea on 12/31/18 ( 90% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-03; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Current Iranian regime is overthrown by April 2018 ( 6% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2018-01-02; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2018-04-02.
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[The monarch of the United Kingdom on 12/31/18 is] Charles ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-02; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2019-01-01.
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[The monarch of the United Kingdom on 12/31/18 is] Elizabeth II ( 87% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-02; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Bernie Sanders will win the 2020 Dem. Presidential nomination ( 10% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2020-09-01; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
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Hillary Clinton will announce candidacy for the 2020 US Presidential Election ( 5% confidence; 19 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-12-19; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2019-04-10.
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Public demonstration of an AI that can learn the rules of, and play at a superhuman level, most board/card games without supervision, just watching many games and being told who won, in 2018 or 2019. ( 64% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2017-12-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-01-01.
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There will be a Wikipedia page detailing the crypto currency boom resembling https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by xzvf on 2017-11-06; known on 2019-05-03; judged right by xzvf on 2018-12-21.
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(regular price) Petri-dish veal cheaper than (regular price) cow-produced veal at at least one large market chain(for example Amazon, WalMart, Superstore, etc) ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-11-02; known on 2018-12-31.
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Apple will ship an iPhone with no ports before the end of 2020. ( 58% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jamesrom on 2017-11-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by davatk on 2021-01-01.
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>50% of the world population has to scan their eye(/iris) at least once per day ( 3% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-27; known on 2020-08-19; judged wrong by NickN on 2020-08-20.
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Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022 ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by OisinMoran on 2017-10-19; known on 2022-03-27; judged wrong by OisinMoran on 2022-03-29.
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C still widely in use in the 2020s ( 93% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-16; known on 2029-12-31.
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Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence ( 3% confidence; 22 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-12; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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Before Jan 1, 2018, at least five deaths will occur in the US widely attributed to Neo-Nazis killing people at political protests or rallies. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2017-08-17; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-01.
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The Democratic Party will run Hillary Clinton for President in the 2020 election ( 3% confidence; 17 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-01; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-02.
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Donald Trump will not be impeached or resign in his first term ( 66% confidence; 33 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Bismagician on 2017-05-18; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by CaelumCodicem on 2019-12-19.
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Bitcoin will be worth $1500 us by December 2017. ( 81% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by nortil on 2017-04-10; known on 2017-12-15; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-12-19.
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Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2018 ( 82% confidence; 52 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2017-03-31; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Uber will go bankrupt, dissolve, or merge with another company by the end of 2018 ( 17% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sdr on 2017-03-20; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death. ( 6% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2017-03-17; known on 2037-03-17; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-09-08.
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Trump will win a second term ( 46% confidence; 74 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2020-11-08; judged wrong by regex on 2020-11-20.
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Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state ( 0% confidence; 35 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-10; known on 2025-01-01.
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Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2017 ( 93% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034 ( 0% confidence; 27 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-10; known on 2034-01-01.
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California will secede from the United States before 2021 ( 0% confidence; 34 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-13; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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Pokemon Go will descend to <15M users by 08/20 ( 64% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by sungk2048 on 2016-07-25; known on 2016-08-20; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-08-21.
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France holds 'leave EU' referendum ( 19% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2020-07-24; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2020-07-30.
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Le Pen elected president of france 2017 ( 28% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-07.
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By this time in 2026, there will be a consensus among neuroscientists (>50%) that quantum mechanics plays a non-trivial role in understanding consciousness. ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RoryS on 2016-07-18; known on 2026-07-18.
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Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee for President in 2016. ( 52% confidence; 88 wagers; 55 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-14; known on 2016-07-20; judged right by elephantower on 2016-07-16.
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The world average of the 2016 democracy index will be higher than in 2015 ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-12; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-01-08.
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Dissident Irish republican groups launch an attack killing more than 5 people by the end of 2018 ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-11; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2019-01-01.
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Contrary to game-theoretic concerns, miners will continue to mine bitcoin and the network will not collapse at the halvening due to lack of mining ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-07; known on 2016-07-19; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-09.
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In the next 5 years, Northern Ireland holds either an Irish reunification referendum, or an independence referendum. ( 12% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-06-27; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ( 55% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-06-27; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by davatk on 2021-01-16.
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Another EU country will decide to leave before 2020 ( 44% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-24; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Paul.David.Carr on 2020-01-01.
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Surface of the earth still habitable for human beings by 2050 (whether or not human beings are, in fact, on the surface) ( 77% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-20; known on 2050-01-01.
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Kim Jong-un was assassinated on or before 16 June 2016. ( 3% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-06-16; known on 2016-12-17; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-06-29.
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United Ireland by 2020 ( 8% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-06-05; known on 2020-12-16; judged wrong by Reactionaryhistorian on 2020-10-12.
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Humanity still a thing in 2036 ( 89% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-13; known on 2036-12-31.
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Trump to back legalizing recreational and/or medical marijuana during 2016 election. ( 33% confidence; 9 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-05-04; known on 2016-11-16; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-11-16.
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Clinton to back legalizing recreational and/or medical marijuana during 2016 election. ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-05-04; known on 2016-11-16; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-11-21.
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2019 EU passes regulations requiring labeling of DRM-encumbered products. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-10; known on 2020-01-21.
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AI to beat at least one of the ten top-ranked humans in Starcraft Brood War by January 1, 2023 ( 68% confidence; 9 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-23; known on 2023-01-01.
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Martin Shkreli convicted of a US crime before 2018. ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-17; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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Lee Sedol attempts suicide ( 1% confidence; 21 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-12; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Sanders will win the Democratic nomination ( 21% confidence; 29 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by LawrenceNewport on 2016-02-26; known on 2016-06-14; judged wrong by LawrenceNewport on 2016-06-14.