Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 40% | 50% | 63% | 85% | 83% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 30 | 48 | 56 | 33 | 82 | 8 | 257 |
Displaying all predictions made by btrettel. Filter by:
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The Navier-Stokes Millennium prize will be awarded before 2020-01-01 ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-05-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-01-01.
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I will not complain to Uhaul or my insurance company about damage to/theft of the contents of my Uboxes ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2017-08-07; known on 2017-10-01; judged right by btrettel on 2017-09-22.
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My FOIA request for the Szlackin report will result in me getting at least a redacted copy of the report before the end of 2017 ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2017-08-15; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2018-01-01.
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I will be admitted to the 2017 Envision Conference ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2017-08-13; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by btrettel on 2017-08-28.
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Firefox browser share will be below 5.1% for December 2017 as reported by W3Counter ( 33% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2017-08-07; known on 2018-01-15; judged wrong by Afforess on 2018-01-01.
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The sun will explode. ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by tfcd1200 on 2017-08-07; known on 2017-08-08; judged wrong by btrettel on 2017-08-08.
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Reality Winner gets the death penalty ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-24; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-08.
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Rey is a child of Luke Skywalker ( 45% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-01; known on 2018-06-02; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2017-12-21.
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I will be admitted to the Envision Conference at Princeton this year ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2016-10-14; known on 2016-10-17; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-10-16.
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US will abandon the electoral college at any time before 2050 ( 27% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2016-10-02; known on 2050-01-01.
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I will be involved in a bike crash serious enough that the police or EMS will respond between 2016-10-01 and 2017-06-01 ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2016-09-24; known on 2017-06-02; judged wrong by btrettel on 2017-06-03.
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The “Steamboat Willie” cartoon featuring Mickey Mouse will enter the public domain in 2023 or earlier ( 32% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2016-09-12; known on 2024-01-02.
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I will contract Zika virus any time before 2018 ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2016-09-12; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2018-01-01.
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Hillary Clinton drops out of the presidential race due to health reasons ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-12; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
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Libertarian Party wins presidency in 2020. ( 3% confidence; 20 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-08-26; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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Hillary Clinton will win the United States' Presidential race ( 67% confidence; 15 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by BigRaims on 2016-08-16; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Trump will drop out of the Presidential race before Aug 31st ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-08-05; known on 2016-08-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-08-31.
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It will be revealed that Trump's goal in running for President was to see Clinton elected, in a kind of false-flag shill operation. ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JohnWittle on 2016-08-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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What is today known as the 2016 DNC leak will be generally agreed upon to have been hacked by a Russian Government operation. Similar to how the NYTimes says (but both governments deny) that Stuxnet was a joint US/Israel operation. ( 93% confidence; 5 wagers; 21 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-31; known on 2066-07-30; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-10-07.
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Clinton elected and US civil war ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
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Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS ( 11% confidence; 10 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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Hillary Clinton elected AND nuclear war involving the US during her reign ( 2% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
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Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee for President in 2016. ( 52% confidence; 88 wagers; 55 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-14; known on 2016-07-20; judged right by elephantower on 2016-07-16.
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Trump wins the presidential election 2016 ( 34% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by qznc on 2016-07-04; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
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Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-11; known on 2056-01-01.
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There will be at least one presidential debate in 2016 that both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump participate in ( 86% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-04; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-09.
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Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump will be the next elected President ( 90% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-01; known on 2016-11-10; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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President Trump appoints Ron Paul as Secretary of State ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-08; known on 2017-02-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-02-01.
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Conditional on being in a bike crash serious enough that the police or EMS respond between 2015-09-01 and 2016-05-01, a cause will be electronic device use ( 1% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-30; known on 2016-05-02.
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Conditional on being in a bike crash serious enough that the police or EMS respond between 2015-09-01 and 2016-05-01, a cause will be drunk driving ( 3% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-30; known on 2016-05-02.
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Gary Johnson to get > 5% of the vote in 2016 ( 40% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-03-11; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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North American oil industry will collapse. Rig count will fall to zero. ( 7% confidence; 29 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-04; known on 2016-09-25; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-25.
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Kanye West will be U.S. President-elect before 2025 ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-14; known on 2025-01-01.
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A longterm (with humans present at least sixth months) colony will occur on Mars before it occurs on the Earth's moon. ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-13; known on 2050-01-01.
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Donald Trump will shave his head any time before the general election (no GOP nomination needed) ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-01; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-11-08.
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Scott Adams – I predict Trump gets at least 65% of the votes in the general election. ( 4% confidence; 20 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by halfwit on 2015-11-03; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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CIA director John Brennan will resign by 1 Feb 2015 ( 18% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by James Babcock on 2015-10-21; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by James Babcock on 2016-02-01.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky to have at least 1 child by 2020 ( 22% confidence; 31 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by sdr on 2015-10-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-01-01.
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Alexander Coward's firing from UC Berkeley Mathematics department will be overruled. ( 30% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-15; known on 2015-12-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-01.
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Saudi Arabia and Turkey will be invaded by Russian forces before 2017. ( 9% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Znt on 2015-10-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Effective herpes vaccine developed by 2040 ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by btrettel on 2015-10-12; known on 2041-01-01.
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At least 50% of living Americans will need to barter for, hunt, or farm their own food for survival sometime between 2016 and 2050, including those years ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-10-12; known on 2051-01-01.
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I will have filed at least 1 application for a patent by 2020 ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-10-08; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-01-01.
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In 2027(latest possible date) the EU and Ukraine will recognize the liberation of Crimea as an indivisible part of Rossiya(Россия). ( 53% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-07; known on 2027-12-31.
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FBI investigation will find no criminal activity on Hillary Clinton's part. ( 80% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-09-30; known on 2016-10-01; judged right by elephantower on 2016-09-28.
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Number of diesel vehicles sold in US will comprise more than 4% of total vehicles sold in 2020 ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-10-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by stepan on 2021-09-12.
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Antibiotics prescribed less than 415 times per 1000 Americans in 2050 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-10-01; known on 2051-01-01.
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Antibiotics prescribed less than 50 times per 1000 Americans in 2050 ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-21; known on 2051-01-01.
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Paraplegia due to spinal cord injury cured in greater than 90% of cases before 2050 ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-24; known on 2050-01-01.
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Mouse, rat, rabbit, or other small mammal successfully revived from cryopreservation before 2100 ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-24; known on 2100-01-01.
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Invisibility cloak capable of concealing human sized objects developed before 2050 ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-24; known on 2050-01-01.
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Kanye West elected President by 2032 — Scott Adams ( 0% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2015-09-23; known on 2032-11-10.
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Faster-than-light communication developed before 2050 ( 1% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.
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Faster-than-light travel developed before 2050 ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.
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Time travel developed before 2050 ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.
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Teleportation to be developed before 2050 ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-20; known on 2050-01-01.
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Mouse, rat, rabbit, or other small mammal successfully revived from cryopreservation before 2050 ( 29% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-17; known on 2050-01-01.
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Current Illinois governor Bruce Rauner will be found guilty of any illegal crime ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-17; known on 2025-01-01.
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Alcor's membership will be 11% or more greater in 2016 than 2015 ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-15; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2017-01-01.
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I will have submitted two or more papers to academic journals by 2017-01-01 ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2017-01-01.
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A heat engine which beats the Carnot efficiency will be developed before 2050 ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-07; known on 2050-01-01.
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The Arctic Ocean will be ice-free before 2073 ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-07; known on 2073-01-01.
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US energy consumption per capita will be above 400 Million Btu at any time from 2016 through 2050 ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-05; known on 2051-01-01.
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Bernie Sanders is the next US President elect ( 12% confidence; 30 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-09-03; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by Afforess on 2016-10-06.
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US energy consumption per capita will be below 250 Million Btu at any time from 2016 through 2050 ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-03; known on 2051-01-01.
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Construction will start on replacements for the North River Tunnels by 2030 ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-03; known on 2030-01-01.
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World's total fertility rate will fall to replacement rate by 2025. In 1960, women worldwide had an average of 5 children. The rate has since halved, and in 2012, women had an average of 2.5 children across all regions. The World Bank is the source. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-08-29; known on 2025-12-31.
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US obesity rate above 31.6% in 2030 ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-26; known on 2031-01-01.
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US obesity rate above 28.9% in 2020 ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-26; known on 2021-01-01.
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beeminder.com will operate through 2025-09-01 ( 60% confidence )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-26; known on 2025-09-01.
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Artificial eyes which allow the user to score 20/20 or better on a visual acuity test will be developed by 2050 ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-25; known on 2050-01-02.
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Bernie Sanders will win the 2016 Iowa Democratic caucus. ( 29% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-08-25; known on 2016-02-02; judged wrong by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-02.
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Joe Biden will win the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination. ( 10% confidence; 28 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-08-25; known on 2016-09-15; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-09-02.
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More than 25% of durable consumer goods will be 3D printed during 2050 ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-12; known on 2051-01-02.
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Artificial ears which are comparable to or superior than natural ears will be developed by 2050 ( 60% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-25; known on 2050-01-01.
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Bicycling mortality rate in US will be above 0.06 in 2050 ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-24; known on 2051-01-01.
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Bicycling mortality rate in US will be above 0.12 in 2030 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-24; known on 2031-01-01.
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Bicycling mortality rate in US will be above 0.09 in 2040 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-24; known on 2041-01-01.
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Bicycling mortality rate in US will be above 0.16 in 2020 ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-22; known on 2021-01-02.
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Non-condom reversible male contraception approved by the FDA by 2030 ( 73% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-23; known on 2030-01-02.
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Uber will be banned from Manhattan by the end of 2016. ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mikayla on 2015-08-21; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2017-01-01.
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Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050 ( 29% confidence; 14 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-19; known on 2051-01-01.
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Almost all commercial airplanes will have outlets by 2030 ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by cmessinger on 2015-08-17; known on 2030-01-07.
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Armed conflict in space before 2050 ( 10% confidence; 8 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-16; known on 2050-01-01.
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Air pollution, pesticides, and/or EMF will be found responsible for the apparent rise in neurological diseases among the elderly ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-16; known on 2065-01-02.
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Greater than 25% of US utility companies that exist as of 2015 will file for bankruptcy by 2035 ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-16; known on 2035-01-01.
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Global mass unemployment due to automation will cause large scale civil unrest that threatens global stability before 2100. ( 33% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by silacoid on 2015-08-16; known on 2100-01-01.
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We will be able to robustly search audio files by text by 2025 ( 78% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-16; known on 2026-01-01.
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By 2042, solar energy will cost half or less of what fossil-fuel based alternatives do. ( 53% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-15; known on 2042-01-01.
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By 2025, “solar energy will cost half or less of what fossil-fuel-based alternatives do” – Vivek Wadhwa ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-15; known on 2025-01-01.
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Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license. ( 14% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by quanticle on 2015-08-14; known on 2025-08-15.
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The level of Austin, TX's Lake Travis will slip below 665.0 feet by the end of 2015. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2015-08-13; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by unexpectedEOF on 2015-10-24.
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“By 2020, solar energy will be price-competitive with energy generated from fossil fuels on an unsubsidized basis in most parts of the world.” – Vivek Wadhwa ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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More than 25% of consumer goods will be 3D printed during 2025 ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-12; known on 2026-01-01.
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By 2025, the half-life of a career will decrease to 5 years ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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Donald Trump to be the next elected President of the United Stated. ( 21% confidence; 53 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-10; known on 2016-11-12; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-09.
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MARC train service will not stop running on 2016-01-02 due to lack of positive train control ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-06; known on 2016-01-03; judged right by btrettel on 2016-01-03.
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No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2100. ( 70% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-05; known on 2100-01-01.
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Oil will account for a lower raw amount of energy consumption in 2030 than in 2020 ( 63% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-04; known on 2031-01-01.
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We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040 ( 52% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-04; known on 2041-01-01.