Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 80% | 100% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 19 |
Displaying all predictions made by custom. Filter by:
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terrorist attack in boston on the day of the boston marathon (unsuccessful attempts included) ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2017-04-17; known on 2017-04-19; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2017-04-19.
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More than 1,000 US troops deployed in North Korea by June 1, 2017 ( 9% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-06-02; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-01.
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Ubuntu 16.10->17.04 upgrade on computer “Hedy” will result in a booting machine, to at least emacs, a web browser with access to the www, and a bitcoin client. ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-13; known on 2017-04-14; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-13.
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Predictionbook gets taken over by prediction market fetishists(rule 34), most new predictions are of a sexual nature ( 46% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-13; known on 2037-01-01.
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The United States will be in an active, major war with North Korea as of May 1, 2017. ( 8% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-11; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-05-01.
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The Republicans will use the nuclear option to approve Gorsuch. ( 80% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by SeriousPod on 2017-04-04; known on 2017-04-18; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-04-06.
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North Korea conducts a nuclear test within 30 days [2017-04-01] ( 46% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-04-01; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-05-01.
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Politics, US – Deal struck involving at least one Democrat to confirm Gorsuch to Supreme Court in April. ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-01; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-04-07.
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Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2018 ( 82% confidence; 52 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2017-03-31; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Kmart will file for bankruptcy by August of 2017 ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by custom on 2017-03-29; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-01.
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Devin Nunes will step down as Intelligence committee chairman OR recuse himself with regards to the Trump Russia investigation before the end of 2017 ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-03-28; known on 2018-01-15; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-04-06.
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The New York Times stops delivering paper newspapers in 2017 ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-27; known on 2018-01-05; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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The San Francisco Bay Area will experience an earthquake in 2017 equal to or greater than that of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake ( magnitude 6.9 and a maximum Mercalli intensity of IX (Violent)) ( 27% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by custom on 2017-03-27; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2018-01-01.
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Politics, US – Paul Ryan still Speaker of the House of Representatives up to end of April. ( 73% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-03-26; known on 2017-05-01; judged right by ioannes on 2017-05-01.
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North Korea conducts a nuclear test in 2017 ( 66% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-03-24; known on 2018-01-15; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-09.
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2017 Mar 23 The AHCA act will not pass congress today ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-03-23; known on 2017-03-28; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-03-24.
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Uber will go bankrupt, dissolve, or merge with another company by the end of 2017 ( 13% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sdr on 2017-03-20; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by sole21000 on 2018-01-01.
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Steve Bannon leaves the Trump Administration in 2017. ( 31% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-14; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-10-30.
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Donald Trump is still President of the United States at the end of 2017 UTC ( 85% confidence; 30 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-29; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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The UK triggers Article 50. ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-03-31; judged right by custom on 2017-03-29.