Upcoming Predictions
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Donald Trump Jr. (Donald John Trump Jr.) (born December 31, 1977) has more than five children that he admits paternity of within ten (10) years ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2019-03-06; known on 2029-03-06.
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Within 14 years new carbon structures will enable the ability of producing in lab environments pressures of at least 3.6 * 10^13 Pa and many pure carbon substances will have near zero cost due. ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-01; known on 2029-05-01.
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Starcraft III or Warcraft IV to be released by May 18, 2029 ( 65% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-17; known on 2029-05-18.
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Edward O. Wilson to become a centenarian ( 20% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2029-06-16.
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the Earth will be hit by a less than a mile wide asteroid by 2029. Two will be seen and one will hit. Impact will be in the Pacific Ocean south of Guam. ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-07-29.
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Someone will succeed at the IMO grand challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io) in the next 10 years. ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2019-09-15; known on 2029-09-15.
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Professor Trevor Gaunt follows up or causes someone else to follow up with a proposal to widely effect positive policy change in this area [potential risks that geomagnetic storms] by 2027-10-01 ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2029-10-01.
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Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry. ( 77% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2029-10-14.
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Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029. ( 7% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-12-01.
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Sluggish cognitive tempo to be recognized as a disorder independent of ADHD in the DSM-6 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2029-12-16.
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Global CO² emissions peak at 15.3Gt in 2029 —Bloomberg New Energy Finance ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-06; known on 2029-12-25.
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Computers will become truely self-aware by 2029. ( 31% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-12-27.
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Bharat will pass the USA and EU in electricity production by 2029. 2nd largest oil importer in 2020. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-14; known on 2029-12-31.
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C still widely in use in the 2020s ( 93% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-16; known on 2029-12-31.
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I will be an inventor. ( 15% confidence )
Created by account on 2023-01-16; known on 2029-12-31.
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By 2029, the “worldwide classroom” (WC) will be a standard in education in over 190 countries worldwide. ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-12-31.
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The Third World War (WW III) will occur within 20 years from 2012. ( 15% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-12-31.
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Brasil will reduce 43% of its greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 from 2005 levels. ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-17; known on 2029-12-31.
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Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence. ( 10% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-09-16; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by komponisto on 2010-09-29.
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Before 2030, Shunji Iwai will direct another movie that I will rate 95/100 or higher ( 3% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-05; known on 2030-01-01.
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Poland will legalize gay marriage by 2030, see https://www.unz.com/akarlin/poland-will-legalize-gay-marriage-within-10-years/ ( 69% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by akarlin on 2020-06-17; known on 2030-01-01.
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Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence. ( 8% confidence; 28 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2009-10-17; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by Jack on 2009-11-16.
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USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China. ( 41% confidence; 17 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-04; known on 2030-01-01.
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Human drivers will be illegal on some Australian roads by 2030 ( 40% confidence )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2013-09-14; known on 2030-01-01.
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Human drivers will be illegal on some USA roads by 2030 ( 44% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2013-09-14; known on 2030-01-01.
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There is a base on the surface of the Moon and there is always someone there. ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-01-01.
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Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars ( 19% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-01-01.
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An off-planet Playboy club is operational before 2030. ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-05; known on 2030-01-01.
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Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030 ( 26% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Alexander Kruel on 2011-08-17; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by Porejide on 2011-08-25.
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By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms. ( 30% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Alexander Kruel on 2011-08-17; known on 2030-01-01.
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The cost projections of the hyperloop are underestimates by at least an order of magnitude. ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-08-15; known on 2030-01-01.
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Tesla Motors / SpaceX / Elon Musk will create a working hyperloop by 2030. ( 17% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-08-12; known on 2030-01-01.
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By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S. ( 38% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030 ( 29% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-20; known on 2030-01-01.
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A city of population >50,000 in the United States will ban the sale of all meat products that came from a sentient animal ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Dapple on 2016-11-15; known on 2030-01-01.
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A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin. ( 8% confidence; 14 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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An element will be discovered with atomic number of 119 or greater before January 1, 2030 ( 59% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-04-25; known on 2030-01-01.
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“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.” ( 11% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2030-01-01.
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I predict that humans will land on mars by 2030 ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bacon1001 on 2018-01-25; known on 2030-01-01.
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SpinLaunch launches no payloads (test or otherwise, suborbital or other) by 2030. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-02-23; known on 2030-01-01.
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“By 2030 all surgical anesthesia will be administered and monitored by computers, with no need for professional medical supervision beyond the surgeon.” ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2030-01-01.
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By 2030, Elon Musk sells Twitter or allows it to declare bankruptcy ( 75% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-02; known on 2030-01-01.
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By 2030, archeological forensics will discover or identify an artifact with encoded (accidentally or otherwise) audio older than the phonautograms created by 19th century phonautographs. ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by roxton on 2013-01-11; known on 2030-01-01.
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No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030. ( 63% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-31; known on 2030-01-01.
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Turing Testable AIs will be publicly available by 2030. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Prickman on 2020-01-07; known on 2030-01-01.
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Péter Nádas will win a Nobel Literature prize before 2030. ( 10% confidence )
Created by korakos on 2020-11-28; known on 2030-01-01.
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By 2030, Bluesky (Jack Dorsey startup/app) becomes widely used ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-02; known on 2030-01-01.
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Between now and 2030, a feature length movie will be made about the life of one of the major figures of classical anarchism. (e.g. Proudhon, Kropotkin, Malatesta, Durruti, Goldman etc.) ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-16; known on 2030-01-01.
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IEA: US to become net oil exporter by 2030 ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-12; known on 2030-01-01.
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“Hypersonic airliners are entering [commercial] service” ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2030-01-01.