Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 41% | 58% | 67% | 81% | 90% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 51 | 59 | 60 | 75 | 79 | 6 | 330 |
Displaying all predictions made by sweeneyrod. Filter by:
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There will be a manned mission to Mars by 2030 ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-29; known on 2030-01-16.
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I will get to level 30 in LoL by February ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-29; known on 2015-02-15; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-15.
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There will be less than 20 deaths from Ebola in the UK by March ( 86% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-03-16; judged right by kuudes on 2015-03-07.
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There will be less than 500 deaths from Ebola in the UK by March ( 93% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-03-16; judged right by kuudes on 2015-03-07.
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There will be less than 5000 deaths from Ebola in the UK by March ( 99% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-03-16; judged right by kuudes on 2015-03-07.
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There will be a death from Ebola in the UK by January ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-01-16; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-05.
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We will go busking by Christmas ( 70% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-28; known on 2014-12-26; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-27.
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We won't get a dog by January ( 90% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-01-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-17.
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I will get a distinction at grade 8 ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-06-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-05-08.
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I will get a merit or above at grade 8 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-06-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-05-08.
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I will pass my grade 8 ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-06-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-05-08.
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I will learn to pick locks by next year ( 80% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-09-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16.
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I will learn to pick locks by January ( 40% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-01-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-17.
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I will learn to lockpick by November ( 20% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-28; known on 2014-11-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-16.
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I will get all A's in my mocks ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-02-15; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-15.
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Conditional on UKIP winning the Rochester byelection, Cameron faces an official leadership challenge within a month. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-10-12; known on 2014-12-06; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-06.
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Kim Jong-un is reported dead within 100 calendar days. ( 3% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by asd on 2014-09-28; known on 2015-01-06; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-06.
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I will publish the fanfic I am currently working on to either ff.net or Archive of Our Own by the end of the year. ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Calien on 2014-08-19; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-04.
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Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black. ( 13% confidence; 24 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-17; known on 2024-06-16.
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Half-Life 3 is released in 2014. ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by tedks on 2014-03-19; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-31.
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HP MoR: Mr. Hat & Cloak is Baba Yaga ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by solipsist on 2014-02-27; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.
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World War 3 will start by december 2014 ( 1% confidence; 29 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by refnum on 2014-03-03; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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Dogecoin's market cap will surpass Litecoin's during 2014 ( 45% confidence; 16 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2014-02-13; known on 2015-01-03; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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I will have a girlfriend at some point in the next 365 days. ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-06; known on 2015-02-06; judged wrong by Mati on 2015-02-06.
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HPMOR: final chapter to be published before Dec 1st of 2014 ( 28% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by sdr on 2014-01-24; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by on 2014-12-01.
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The Pope will be assassinated. ( 2% confidence; 35 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-11-28; known on 2028-11-28.
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By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000 ( 60% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-02-07; known on 2064-01-01.
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My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028 ( 8% confidence; 18 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-12; known on 2028-12-31.
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HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2015. ( 58% confidence; 28 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-01-01.
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The appearance of complex numbers in quantum mechanics has something to do with information propagating backwards through time regarding constraints on which possible world(s) may obtain. This is related to getting bits of Chaitin's omega by observing app ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-24; known on 2031-09-24.
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I will be a USCF Master before I turn 23. ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-13; known on 2014-11-15; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-15.
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The proportion of the population that believes that Human-induced climate change is a reality will decline to below 50% by 2014. ( 36% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by kochikvp on 2010-08-27; known on 2014-12-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-16.