Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 58% | 67% | 78% | 91% | 91% | |
Sample Size | 18 | 24 | 39 | 32 | 65 | 11 | 189 |
Displaying all predictions made by ygert. Filter by:
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OoTS: MitD is the Snarl. ( 15% confidence; 11 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-06-30; known on 2022-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry will, at some point in the story or an epilogue, literally tear apart stars (for star lifting purposes perhaps), and this is what the “tear apart the very stars in heaven” phrase in the prophecy was referring to. ( 62% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-28; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-31.
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Rey is a child of Luke Skywalker ( 45% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-01; known on 2018-06-02; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2017-12-21.
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I will be involved in a bike crash serious enough that the police or EMS will respond between 2015-09-01 and 2016-05-01 ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-05-29; known on 2016-05-02; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-05-02.
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HP MoR: We will learn that the True Patronus by itself can block the Killing Curse, no matter who casts each spell. ( 46% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by 75th on 2013-08-13; known on 2015-07-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.
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The prophecy in HPMR refers to Harry and Death, not Harry and Voldemort. ( 13% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-23; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.
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HP MoR: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains an ordinary rock ( 40% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-16.
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HP MoR: Harry will create a superintelligent AI using magic or magical objects ( 9% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: There will be at least one character whose Animagus form is another human ( 24% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Bacon's diary is a Horcrux ( 27% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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HP MoR: A Deathly Hallow besides the Cloak will appear in the possession of a character in the present-day at some point ( 92% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: the Philosopher's Stone will be mass-manufactured by Harry or at his behest ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: 5 Voldemort Horcruxes are where Harry suggested putting hidden things in ch46 ( 61% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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HP MoR: someone will be mentioned or shown using the Imperius curse on themselves (or consenting to another's use on them) to supplement their willpower (dieting, working hard, etc.) ( 32% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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“Warlords of Khanar” will be the name of the MTG block codenamed “Huey”, “Dewey” and “Louie”, and/or one of the sets of that block. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ygert on 2013-09-25; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by LogicalOxymoron on 2014-11-22.
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HP MoR: Harry had a hand in the disappearance of Hermione's corpse. ( 80% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-18; known on 2015-06-23; judged right by Roxolan on 2015-03-01.
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If the USG bombs Syria before 2014, then by the year 2015 Syria will be a democracy and the two largest political parties will be secular. ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-09-10; known on 2015-01-01.
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There will be fewer than 20 wagers on this prediction two weeks from today. ( 70% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-18; known on 2014-07-01; judged right by aarongertler on 2014-07-01.
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MTG: There will be an enemy colored dual land printed in a core set within the next three years. (In M15, M16, or M17.) ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by ygert on 2014-05-27; known on 2016-07-17; judged right by ygert on 2014-06-28.
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HP MOR: Quirrell was responsible for releasing the troll, but a third party redirected it to Hermione ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by solipsist on 2014-05-26; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.
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My physics final was misgraded, or the grade was entered wrong. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by azax1 on 2014-05-23; known on 2014-05-30; judged wrong by azax1 on 2014-06-09.
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Eliezer will publish at least one HPMOR chapter this month. ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ygert on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-04-01; judged wrong by on 2014-04-01.
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Jacob Wilson wins Pro Tour: Born of the Gods. ( 70% confidence )
Created by ygert on 2014-02-23; known on 2014-02-23; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-02-23.
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HPMoR: The spell of cursèd fire is Amaterasu. ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-02-15; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-23.
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HP MoR: The phrase “the very stars in heaven” in the prophecy refers to the Black family, as per http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/hvg/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/9ajh . ( 4% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-03; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by ygert on 2015-03-23.
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There are unique 50 wagers on this prediction by April 1st, 2014. ( 69% confidence; 62 wagers; 71 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-04-02; judged right by rickyrich98 on 2014-04-02.
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MIRI will continue operating in end of 2014. ( 92% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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Slate Star Codex will remain active until end of 2014. ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2015-01-10.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky will remain visibly overweight at the end of 2014. ( 71% confidence; 20 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-21; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by waveman on 2015-01-02.
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HPMoR will be fully completed by chapter 111. (That is to say, it will have no more than 111 chapters, including all the remaining arcs, and all epilogues.) ( 20% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by ygert on 2014-01-15; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-03-14.
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The total market cap of all non-bitcoin cryptocurrencies will beat Bitcoin's market cap at some point during the year. ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2014-01-15; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.
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Eliezer will mention/recommend the story “The Last Christmas” in the next Author's Note for HPMOR. ( 90% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ygert on 2014-01-05; known on 2014-02-01; judged right by ygert on 2014-02-02.
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In HPMOR, Voldemort is/was at some point in the form of a disembodied spirit. ( 61% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ygert on 2012-12-18; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Unknowns on 2015-02-21.
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HP MoR: While the diamond was just transfigured from his father's rock, the ring itself was also transfigured from Hermione's remains or part thereof, thus getting past Dumbledore's scanning for transfigured objects that Harry may have had on his person ( 42% confidence; 28 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-08; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by tedks on 2015-02-28.
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A different cryptocurrency beats Bitcoin in market cap at some point during the year. ( 7% confidence; 31 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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In HPMOR, it will turn out to be the case that Lockheart was at some point in the past (that is to say before the events of chapter 86) possessed by Voldemort's spirit. ( 6% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2012-12-17; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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Chris Dixon: Amazon.com will be using bitcoins in 5 years (by 1/1/2019) ( 33% confidence; 26 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-12-13; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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HP MoR: the general consensus among the Wizengamot and/or the populus of magical Britain in the wake of the events of chapters 88-90 will blame Lucius Malfoy for releasing the troll in Hogwarts as a means of getting revenge on Hermione. ( 15% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-02; known on 2014-02-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-01-02.
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The 2013 Less Wrong Survey will show more than 60% of the participants to be men. ( 94% confidence; 31 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Mathias Zaman on 2013-12-01; known on 2014-01-31; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-01-19.
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Bitcoin price on 2014-01-01: 1000-2000$ (mtgox prices) ( 49% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ArisKatsaris on 2013-12-31.
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Barack Obama to attempt to run for a third term as President (either through Constitutional amendment or other method). ( 0% confidence; 41 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-24; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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The title of OOTS #930 will be “The” or “The Rift”. ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ygert on 2013-11-13; known on 2013-11-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-14.
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HP MoR: Voldemort never intended Harry's own death on the night of his parents' death. ( 50% confidence; 21 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2011-09-04; known on 2015-11-02; judged right by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Sirius Black ( 12% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2011-09-04; known on 2015-11-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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MtG: There will be at least one reference to homosexuality per block in the next four blocks. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-28; known on 2019-05-16; judged wrong by Roxolan on 2019-05-16.
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In the 2016 US presidential election, dealing with the NSA etc. will not be ignored and will be a serious debate issue, on par with the economy or abortion. ( 39% confidence; 12 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-09-25; known on 2016-11-02; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-11-09.
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“I make the falsifiable prediction that during Pope Francis's tenure the Catholic Church will shrink, its proportional membership will diminish and its contributions per member will drop.” — EY (on Facebook) ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-09-20; known on 2023-09-20.
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At least one of the Invasion dragons (Crosis, Darigaaz, Dromar, Rith, Treva) will be reprinted in the Commander 2013 decks. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-09-18; known on 2013-10-15; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-18.
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At least one of the Elder Dragon Legends (Nicol Bolas, Arcades Sabboth, Chromium, Palladia-Mors, Vaevictis Asmadi) will be reprinted in the Commander 2013 decks. ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-09-18; known on 2013-10-15; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-18.
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There will be at least one Mono Black Control (MBC) deck among the Pro Tour Theros Top 8 decks. ( 10% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-09-17; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: a Theros rare/mythic that I haven't listed in my other predictions (predictionbook.com/predictions/21290 to 21335) ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Swan Song ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Whip of Erebos ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Artisan of Forms ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Anger of the Gods ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by prototrout on 2013-10-13.
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The MTG set M15 will include all or some of the M10/M11/M12/M13 dual lands and/or their Innistrad block counterparts. (aka the “checklands”.) ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-09-11; known on 2014-07-11; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-06-28.
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MTG: Conditional on Thoughtseize being reprinted in Theros block, it will not be printed at mythic rare. ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by ygert on 2013-08-29; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-08-30.
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Within two years, there will be some mechanism for direct karma transfer implemented on Less Wrong. (Karma betting, karma bounties, or the like.) ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ygert on 2013-08-25; known on 2015-08-24; judged right by ygert on 2014-02-17.
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In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia. ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Omid on 2013-08-22; known on 2034-06-01.
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HPMOR: Dumbledore is Grindelwald ( 2% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dusk on 2013-08-20; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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[HPMOR] Dumbledore did not kill (intentionally or unintentionally) Hermione. ( 79% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by linkhyrule5 on 2013-08-16; known on 2014-07-02; judged right by linkhyrule5 on 2015-02-20.
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HPMoR will update with chapter 97 on Wednesday the 14th of August. ( 73% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ygert on 2013-08-11; known on 2013-08-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-08-15.
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The Overdue Predictions page on PredictionBook will be modified to not display withdrawn or changed to private (by someone else) predictions by 2014. ( 36% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2013-08-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-01-01.
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HP MoR: Quirinus Quirrell is actually Nymphadora Tonks. ( 0% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-25; known on 2014-07-25; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-13.
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HP MoR: The snake patronus is from Quirrell. ( 1% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-25; known on 2013-08-21; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2013-08-15.
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HP MoR: The snake patronus is from Draco. ( 90% confidence; 22 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-25; known on 2013-08-21; judged right by lavalamp on 2013-08-15.
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HP MoR: It will be revealed (either in the story or by Eliezer outside it) that it is impossible to lie in Parseltongue. ( 45% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by 75th on 2013-07-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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Created by ygert on 2013-07-15; known on 2013-08-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-07-22.
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HP MoR: At the end of the story Hermione comes back as an alicorn princess ( 18% confidence; 21 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by Benja on 2013-07-06; known on 2014-07-06; judged right by Benja on 2015-03-15.
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HP MoR: Snape kills Dumbledore ( 22% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Flailingjunk on 2013-07-06; known on 2015-01-02; judged wrong by ygert on 2015-03-23.
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On August 12, “Chandra, Pyromaster” will be sold at 19.95$ or more on starcitygames.com ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-07-12; known on 2013-08-12; judged wrong by Roxolan on 2013-08-12.
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On August 12, “Chandra, Pyromaster” will be sold at 9.95$ or more on starcitygames.com ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-07-12; known on 2013-08-12; judged right by Roxolan on 2013-08-12.
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HPMOR: Snape kills Dumbledore. (http://www.reddit.com/r/HPMOR/comments/1hq660/spoiler_discussion_thread_chapter_93/cawt80l) ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-06; known on 2014-07-16.
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Morsi will be out of power by December 1, 2013 ( 66% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-07-01; known on 2013-12-01; judged right by phreeza on 2013-07-04.
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HP MoR: Hermione will make a Horcrux chronologically before or during the events of ch89 ( 17% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-07-01; known on 2013-09-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2015-03-23.
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HP MoR: the troll attack in ch88-89 was executed by Severus Snape ( 18% confidence; 23 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-06-30; known on 2015-06-30; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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HP MoR: Hermione has or will become a magical Hogwarts ghost ( 13% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-06-30; known on 2015-06-30; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-16.
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HP MoR: ch90 will involve a use of a Time-Turner by any party. ( 65% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-06-30; known on 2013-08-30; judged right by nigr on 2013-08-15.
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HP MoR: neither Quirrellmort, nor Snape, nor Dumbledore, nor Lucius, nor Hermione is responsible for framing Hermione. ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-05-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by DrDiaphanous on 2015-02-19.
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HP MoR: Lucius Malfoy is responsible for framing Hermione. ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-05-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by DrDiaphanous on 2015-02-19.
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HP MoR: Quirrellmort is responsible for framing Hermione. ( 59% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-05-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by DrDiaphanous on 2015-02-19.
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Apple will lose in its e-book antitrust trial. ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-06-05; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by ygert on 2013-07-16.
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No Magic card printed before 2017 will explicitly copy a planeswalker (copying a permanent is okay). ( 51% confidence; 9 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-05-23; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Roxolan on 2017-01-01.
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As of when this prediction was made, the US government routinely saves a recording of a majority of domestic phone calls and emails, as per www.overcomingbias.com/2013/05/us-record-all-calls.html. ( 45% confidence; 8 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-05-08; known on 2033-05-08.
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Every planeswalker printed until 2017 will have at least one planeswalker ability that can always be used (regardless of board state or remaining loyalty). ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-05-05; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Roxolan on 2017-01-01.
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Google Chrome browser will survive 5 years ( 93% confidence; 27 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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At least one conviction will occur for someone involved in the West Texas plant blast before January 1, 2015 ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-22; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2015-01-11.
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The upcoming Magic: The Gathering set, Dragon's Maze, will contain at least one legendary creature with precisely four colors. ( 18% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-04-08; known on 2013-04-27; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-04-22.
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BTC hits $1000 within the year ( 15% confidence; 20 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2013-11-28.
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BTC hits $500 within the year ( 35% confidence; 23 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2013-11-28.
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BTC hits $200 within the year ( 57% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-09.
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Bitcoin will hit the $30 mark (currently $100) sometime in the next 2 months. ( 30% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-04-01; known on 2013-07-01; judged wrong by phreeza on 2013-07-02.
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The Magic: the Gathering card previewed in ReConstructed during the first week of Dragon's Maze previews will be Selesnya's Guild Champion. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Thelas on 2013-03-26; known on 2013-04-02; judged wrong by Thelas on 2013-04-09.
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The Magic: the Gathering block “Theros” will be Classical/Greek/Roman/Hellenistic themed. ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-03-25; known on 2013-09-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-06-23.
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One of Italy/Spain/Portugal/Germany will leave the EU before 2023 ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-03-23; known on 2023-01-01.
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The price of bitcoins on MtGox meets or exceeds $75 within the next 30 days. ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by tedks on 2013-03-21; known on 2013-04-20; judged right by tedks on 2013-03-25.
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BTC hits $100 within the year ( 65% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-03-19; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-04-01.
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The price of bitcoins on MtGox meets or exceeds $65 within the next 30 days. ( 56% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by tedks on 2013-03-19; known on 2013-04-18; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-03-21.
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Detection of free oxygen on an exoplanet by end of the year. ( 17% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-03-12; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by phreeza on 2014-01-01.