Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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I will have completed two masters level AI courses at ANU or equivalent ( 30% confidence )
Created by waveman on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-11-30; judged wrong by waveman on 2012-08-08.
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I have comprehensive investment models for individual stocks. Evidence: details of models and research which developed them. Fully implemented and trading. ( 50% confidence )
Created by waveman on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by waveman on 2012-08-08.
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I will have basic stock trading model done, with initial trades by this date. ( 50% confidence )
Created by waveman on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-09-30; judged wrong by waveman on 2012-08-08.
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I will have completed a project that is useful that uses some AI technology. ( 65% confidence )
Created by waveman on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by waveman on 2012-08-08.
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EUR/USD on or below 1.23 on 2012-08-07 12:00 UTC. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by clemux on 2012-08-06; known on 2012-08-07; judged wrong by clemux on 2012-08-07.
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EUR/USD on or below 1.22 on 2012-08-07 12:00 UTC. ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by clemux on 2012-08-06; known on 2012-08-07; judged wrong by clemux on 2012-08-07.
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The Opportunity rover will continue doing science (either mobile or as a fixed station) at least until Curiosity lands on Mars. ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-10; known on 2012-10-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-06.
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The Curiosity rover will successfully land on Mars. ( 70% confidence; 14 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-09; known on 2012-09-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-06.
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Missy Franklin will win 4 or more gold medals ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2012-09-15; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-08-06.
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Usain Bolt won't win 100m gold medal in 2012 ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2012-09-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-08-06.
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Usain Bolt will win the 100m gold medal in the 2012 Olympics. ( 55% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-27; known on 2012-08-05; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-08-06.
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I will apply to at least 1 graduate school by the end of the summer. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Primeval on 2012-06-03; known on 2012-08-01; judged wrong by Primeval on 2012-08-02.
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Bloom & Speak Bilingual Tx, will be operable by 2012-8-1 ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Primeval on 2012-06-03; known on 2012-08-01; judged right by Primeval on 2012-08-02.
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I will complete Metal Gear Solid within the next 90 days. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-03; known on 2012-08-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-02.
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I will have achieved intermediate level on all my one remaining weightlifting lift as defined in my spreadsheet. ie Bench press 20 reps at 38kg. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2012-03-31; known on 2012-08-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2012-08-01.
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I will have workable futures trading strategy in place. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by waveman on 2012-03-31; known on 2012-08-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2012-08-01.
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I will have reduced excess fat to the point that I will have visible abs. Currently I am at about 15% Body Fat. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by waveman on 2012-03-31; known on 2012-07-31; judged wrong by waveman on 2012-07-31.
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Chrome will be the most widely used browser during July 2012 according to StatCounter. ( 68% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by faws on 2011-12-12; known on 2012-08-05; judged right by faws on 2012-07-31.
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Zhou Tong hacked Bitcoinica's MtGox account in July 2012, and this is known before 2016 ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-07-26; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-07-26.
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Zynga will fall below $3 before June 1, 2013 ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-06-12; known on 2013-06-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26.
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I won't be able to find a >320gb external hard drive for my friend ( 75% confidence )
Created by Sarokrae on 2012-07-26; known on 2012-07-26; judged right by Sarokrae on 2012-07-26.
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SOPA will pass through congress, and then it will not be vetoed. ( 49% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Grognor on 2011-12-21; known on 2012-10-16; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-07-26.
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Dark Knight Rises will hold a score of 90% or greater on Rottentomatoes.com on July 25th. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-07-15; known on 2012-07-25; judged wrong by lukeprog on 2012-07-25.
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I will be employed as lukeprog's research assistant in 6 months ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-25; known on 2012-07-25; judged right by gwern on 2012-07-25.
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Salminen 2012's “reasoning abilities”/“reasoning skills” measure will be a matrix-style IQ/Gf/fluid intelligence test. ( 80% confidence; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-28; known on 2012-02-28; judged right by gwern on 2012-07-25.
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US basketball team will beat Spain by less than 12 points tonight ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-24; known on 2012-07-26; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-07-25.
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Japan will restart nuclear reactors before end of 2020 ( 68% confidence; 6 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-05; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-07-24.
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If I donate blood today, then I will feel sick within 15 minutes from finishing. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-20; known on 2012-07-20; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-20.
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“You will hear nothing about Google+ a year from now.” – Eliezer Yudkowsky (http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2722976) ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ZrCa on 2011-07-03; known on 2012-07-03; judged wrong by ZrCa on 2012-07-19.
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Turkey will invade Syria ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by modulus on 2012-06-24; known on 2012-07-15; judged wrong by modulus on 2012-07-15.
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'Evolutionary Psychology: The New Science of the Mind' will arrive on or before 07/17/2012. ( 100% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-08; known on 2012-07-17; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-15.
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I will have uploaded a playable version of a computer game before the first of July 2012. ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by antsan on 2012-02-21; known on 2012-06-30; judged wrong by antsan on 2012-07-13.
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'Evolutionary Psychology: The New Science of the Mind' will arrive on or before 07/12/2012. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-08; known on 2012-07-12; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-13.
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NY taxi fares will go up > 15% by end of the year. ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-22; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-07-13.
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The picture of an Intel processor on http://www.appliedrationality.org/rationality/ is under copyright and was used without permission. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by papermachine on 2012-07-03; known on 2013-01-03; judged wrong by papermachine on 2012-07-11.
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Price of bitcoin to be less than $10 on MtGox at 00:01am on July 10. GMT ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by _W_ on 2012-02-10; known on 2012-07-10; judged right by _W_ on 2012-07-11.
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I will reach base safely (reaching by way of an error counts) in at least half of my plate appearances in my softball double-header tonight. ( 82% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Cy Fleming on 2012-07-10; known on 2012-07-11; judged right by Cy Fleming on 2012-07-11.
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My “shaming” comment will have negative karma at the end of 1 week from now. ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-02; known on 2012-07-09; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-10.
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I will trim and reorganize my Anki deck within the next 8 hours. ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-09; known on 2012-07-09; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-09.
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Djokovic will win wimbledon 2012 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by sucrenoir on 2012-07-02; known on 2012-07-09; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2012-07-09.
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I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 8 hours. ( 45% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-09; known on 2012-07-09; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-09.
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I will complete chapter 20 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 8 hours. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-09; known on 2012-07-09; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-09.
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I will complete chapter 6 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Statistics within the next 8 hours. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-09; known on 2012-07-09; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-09.
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I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-08; known on 2012-07-08; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-08.
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I will complete chapter 19 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-08; known on 2012-07-08; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-08.
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I will complete chapter 5 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Statistics within the next 10 hours. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-08; known on 2012-07-08; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-08.
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Facebook will settle with Yahoo on its patent suit by end of 2012 ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-28; known on 2012-12-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-07-07.
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I will squat 1.5x my own bodyweight or more for 5 sets of 5 reps with equal to or less than 1 minute rests before 2013. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-06.
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John Edwards won't be retried ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-06-01; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-07-06.
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Kevin Garnett will retire before the beginning of 2012-2013 season ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-06-10; known on 2012-11-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-07-06.