Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 53% | 65% | 78% | 86% | 94% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 616 | 437 | 419 | 458 | 711 | 175 | 2816 |
Displaying all predictions made by JoshuaZ. Filter by:
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Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 69% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 31% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 — Aubrey de Grey ( 13% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.
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Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 9% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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A paper written or co-written by me is accepted for publication in the journal Utilitas by 2013 ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Pablo on 2014-01-01.
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The US presidential debates of 2016 will feature a three-way debate between a Democrat, a Republican, and a Libertarian Party candidate. ( 18% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-02; known on 2016-11-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-02.
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Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican. ( 51% confidence; 18 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-27; known on 2116-11-05.
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Earth will still exist in current form, most humans non-uploaded, and disease & old age & work & natural birth still existing —MixedNuts ( 38% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-27; known on 2112-09-27.
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They will have started Phase 3 clinical trials in the US of a brain implant in humans (for Alzheimers, brain damage or disease, not for intelligence upgrade) by 2045 and not before 2025 ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-15; known on 2045-01-01.
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HPMOR: The character of Harry will ultimately come to at least consider the fact that he is literally within a story. ( 10% confidence; 17 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by learnmethis on 2012-09-26; known on 2015-09-26; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.
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Conditional on success in the ISS docking, the first two SpaceX resupply missions will succeed —Sketerpot ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2013-07-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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Paul Farrell, Marketwatch: Wall Street will lose 20% by 2016 ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-23; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Paul Allen will attempt to “download” or “store” his brain before he dies ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-22; known on 2062-01-01.
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Beyond 2011 and 2010, Romney will eventually release more tax returns before the election. ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-22; known on 2012-11-05; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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Democrats will retain control of the senate after 2012 election ( 61% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-21; known on 2012-12-15; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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In the first two years after the 2012 election, at least three prominent Republican party members will defect to other parties. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-21; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by NathanMcKnight on 2016-06-13.
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In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ( 9% confidence; 16 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-18; known on 2022-09-19; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-09-25.
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Hezbollah disbanded by 2020 ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jach on 2012-09-19; known on 2020-06-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-17.
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There will be press report of significant uproar in the U.S. in next 3 years against an anti-Christian video released on the internet (similar to anti muslim video but mirrored) ( 22% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-15; known on 2015-10-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-10-06.
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By the end of the year, NASA will announce that spherical objects discovered by its Opportunity rover on 9/14 are geological rather than biological in origin. ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-15; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-07-19.
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A Libertarian Party candidate will receive more of the popular vote in the 2016 presidential election than the Republican candidate. ( 6% confidence; 23 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-02; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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US unemployment rate below 8% by the 2012 election (last reported number before the election) ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-10; known on 2012-11-15; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-02.
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In 2012 oil prices will reach $130+ a barrel. ( 56% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by M3 on 2011-11-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-01-06.
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The Open Thread post at Less Wrong will be posted four times a month rather than its current twice a month within a year. ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 37 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2012-09-09; known on 2013-09-08; judged right by ygert on 2013-08-30.
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NYTimes: David Brooks will make a (charitably) testable prediction in an article next week 10th-16th ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by William-Quixote on 2012-09-08; known on 2012-09-16; judged right by William-Quixote on 2012-09-20.
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NYTimes: Charles Blow will make a (charitably) testable prediction in an article next week 10th-16th ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by William-Quixote on 2012-09-08; known on 2012-09-16; judged wrong by William-Quixote on 2012-09-20.
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NYTimes: Ross Douthat will make a (charitably) testable prediction in an article next week 10th-16th ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by William-Quixote on 2012-09-08; known on 2012-09-16; judged wrong by William-Quixote on 2012-09-20.
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NYTimes: Thomas Friedman will make a (charitably) a testable prediction in an article next week 10th-16th ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by William-Quixote on 2012-09-08; known on 2012-09-16; judged wrong by William-Quixote on 2012-09-20.
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NYTimes: Paul Krugman will make a (charitably) testable prediction in an article next week 10th-16th ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by William-Quixote on 2012-09-08; known on 2012-09-16; judged right by William-Quixote on 2012-09-20.
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In the next 40 years, at least 1 Nobel Prize Literature will go to someone with a LessWrong account. ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-08; known on 2052-09-08.
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Hillary Clinton will run for president in 2016. ( 38% confidence; 25 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2016-02-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-27.
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The LW user account “Grognor” will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years. ( 45% confidence; 13 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-08-27; known on 2022-08-28; judged wrong by muflax on 2022-08-28.
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I will have read all the books on this list: http://bit.ly/RMV7me ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-09-05; known on 2013-09-05; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2013-09-06.
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No functional whole brain emulation of a human will exist on Earth before 2050. ( 60% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2050-01-01.
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At least 2 billion biological humans will be alive on Earth at the beginning of 2030. ( 94% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2030-01-01.
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Yvain will have more LessWrong karma than me in 5 years. ( 86% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2017-09-04; judged right by lukeprog on 2017-09-04.
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I'll still be a physicalist throughout 2013. ( 97% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2014-01-01.
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No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020. ( 74% confidence; 20 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Eliezer will start posting his Open FAI problems sequence to LessWrong.com in September 2012. ( 47% confidence; 16 wagers )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2012-10-01; judged wrong by lukeprog on 2012-10-01.
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User Epiphany will cease commenting or posting on LW within a month ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-03; known on 2012-10-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-03.
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Robin Hanson & Katja Grace will be in a publicly-known romantic relationship at some point in the next 10 years ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-02; known on 2022-09-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2022-09-02.
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5 or less students will be expelled as a result of the Harvard cheating scandal (125 students investigated) ( 67% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-01; known on 2013-06-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-03-23.
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The Less Wrong Karma will be changed before October 20 so that the -5 penalty for replying to -3 comments is removed or adjusted. ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-31; known on 2012-10-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-10-20.
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Hillary will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2016 ( 47% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-28; known on 2016-07-01; judged right by elephantower on 2016-07-09.
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No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032 ( 52% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-27; known on 2032-01-01.
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The NDE out of body consciousness experiment by Dr Parnia will be entirely negative ( 70% confidence; 10 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Adam on 2008-09-22; known on 2013-04-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-11-14.
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Robert Mugabe of ZANU-PFwill lose to Morgan Tsvangirai of MDC-T in the next election(2012) in Zimbabwe ( 76% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by general on 2011-11-17; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-08-05.
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“When Apple announces a 27-inch or 30-inch Retina Display, you can bet it will have an integrated GPU.” —Robert X Cringely ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by procran on 2014-02-15.
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Akin to get at least 40% of the vote in the Missouri election (conditional on him not dropping out). ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-23; known on 2012-11-10; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-08.
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I will achieve a non-trivial lower bound for either the prime conductor Artin representations or the generic conductor case before January. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-23; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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There'll be a major virus/spyware story in the next 10 years that's primarily focused on theft of commercial information (financial, passwords, blackmail) ( 78% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-14; known on 2022-12-31; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-21.
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Scott Siskind will stil be an atheist by 2014. ( 96% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Kaj_Sotala on 2012-08-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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Mitt Romney will change his position to the GOP platform of banning all abortion even in the case of incest and rape. ( 14% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-08-22; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-08.
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The average lifespan for people living in current OECD countries in 2060 will be equal to or greater than 100 years. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-22; known on 2061-01-01.
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Within the next ten years, Kepler 36b & Kepler 36c will be theorized in a peer-reviewed publication to be a case of planetary enucleation—b being the dense former core of c. ( 24% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-08-21; known on 2022-08-21.
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The Opportunity rover will continue doing science (either mobile or as a fixed station) until at least January 15, 2013 ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-01-15; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-15.
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Romney will have raised more cash than Obama for 2012 election ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-01-03.
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There won't be a significant automobile virus sighting through end of 2016 ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-31.
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Best Buy will be taken private before December 2013 ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.
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Akin will quit before 1st September 2012 ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2012-09-01; judged wrong by tedks on 2012-09-03.
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North Korea will have a working nuclear power plant by end of 2013. ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2014-07-09.
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Current Syrian regime to fall by January 1, 2013 ( 35% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2013-01-01.
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Assuming Assange stays there, British enforcement agents will not enter Ecuador embassy without Ecuadoran consent before end of 2013 ( 66% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-16; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-31.
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For the year of 2020, natural gas will account for a higher percentage of US energy consumption than wind and solar power combined. ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-18; known on 2021-01-01.
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George R. R. Martin's The Winds of Winter will not be released before 2016 ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Lyaer on 2012-08-18; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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Assuming Romney doesn't win, Paul Ryan will be one of the top 3 candidates in Republican primary for president in 2016 ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-12; known on 2016-03-01; judged wrong by Temeraire on 2016-02-12.
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Bill Gates won't develop an affordable water-less toilet for the third world by 2020 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-15; known on 2020-12-31.
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Linda McMahon (wife of wrestling CEO) won't win seat as Connecticut senator ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-15; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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North and South Korea will reunify by 2025 ( 20% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-15; known on 2025-12-31.
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An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years. ( 8% confidence; 17 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-14; known on 2032-11-10.
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Health care spending in the US will exceed 19% of GDP sometime before 2015. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-06; known on 2015-01-02; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-06.
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By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone. ( 53% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-04; known on 2022-08-04; judged right by atzeje on 2022-05-23.
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Unmanned aerial mapping will revolutionize archaeology (as evidenced by number of published papers) within the next 20 years. ( 69% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-08-01; known on 2033-01-01.
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Titan Mare Explorer (TiME) will be chosen as next NASA Discovery standalone mission. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-08-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-06.
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New Horizons mission will transmit strong evidence of subsurface ocean on Pluto. ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-08-01; known on 2016-11-12.
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In the 2012 election, Obama will pick up at least one state he didn't win in 2008. ( 30% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-08-01; known on 2012-11-10; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-11-07.
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HPMoR: Quirrell killed the original Voldemort and took his position. ( 4% confidence; 19 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-07-31; known on 2014-07-31; judged wrong by player_03 on 2015-03-16.
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In 2032, solar power will be at least 150% of the second highest energy source of us consumption (in kwh). ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2012-07-28; known on 2032-01-01.
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Mitt Romney will not pick a minority or woman or non-Christian or atheist or unmarried or gay person as VP (i.e. no surprises!) ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by RobertLumley on 2012-08-11.
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Zhou Tong hacked Bitcoinica's MtGox account in July 2012, and this is known before 2016 ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-07-26; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-07-26.
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Marissa Meyer will quit as Yahoo's CEO in less than 4 years ( 47% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-24; known on 2016-07-24; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-24.
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Rebekah Brooks will be convicted, while Andy Coulson will go free in the News Corp scandal ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-24; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2014-07-04.
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LW user JaneQ is LW user private_messaging (is LW user Dmytry). ( 86% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2012-07-23; known on 2013-07-02; judged right by Grognor on 2012-08-24.
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Pope Benedict XVI will be dead before November, 2012. ( 9% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-08; known on 2012-11-01; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-10-31.
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(All) Wikipedias' total editor base will be >=95,000 in June 2012. ( 30% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2012-08-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-04.
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Assuming Obama wins, the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy will continue in 2013 ( 56% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-01; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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Turkey will invade Syria ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by modulus on 2012-06-24; known on 2012-07-15; judged wrong by modulus on 2012-07-15.
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Sky City will take more than 90 days of construction time to build or will not be built at all in the next 2 years. ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-06-19; known on 2014-06-19; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
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Neither the Republican Candidate for President nor the Democratic Candidate for President will win Arizona in 2012. ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-13; known on 2012-12-01; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-11-07.
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The Republican Candidate for President will win Arizona in 2012. ( 80% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-13; known on 2012-12-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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Tuvalu will have fewer than 1000 year-round inhabitants by 2062. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-06-12; known on 2062-01-01.
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Will Newsome will publicly endorse http://www.timecube.com/ as the most accurate website ever made. ( 10% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-06-11; known on 2018-06-16; judged wrong by muflax on 2017-08-19.
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Greece will exit the euro within the next 2 months ( 21% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Michael Stevens on 2012-06-11; known on 2012-08-11; judged wrong by Michael Stevens on 2012-08-11.
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kalla724 will write a technical post debunking cryonics ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-06-09; known on 2013-06-09; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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Scotland will vote in favour of independence in the 2014 referendum ( 28% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by chimpsky on 2012-06-07; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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The United States reestablishes its embassy in Tehran by the end of 2012 ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by chimpsky on 2012-06-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-01-03.
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Mubarak will have passed away by mid 2013 ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-06-07; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by holycow81 on 2013-06-09.
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Facebook shares will not pass 100$ per share by the end of 2012. ( 87% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidiach on 2012-06-06; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.
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By default, the Command Prompt in Windows 8 RTM will be resizable (to an increase in width) by dragging the corner resizer. ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-09; known on 2012-08-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-03.
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LessWrong user XiXiDu or a XiXiDu sockpuppet will post a comment or article to lesswrong.com before 2018 ( 89% confidence; 12 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-06-03; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-09-04.