Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 53% | 65% | 78% | 86% | 94% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 616 | 437 | 419 | 458 | 711 | 175 | 2816 |
Displaying all predictions made by JoshuaZ. Filter by:
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A room temperature, ambient pressure superconductor is used in household appliances by 2050 ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-12; known on 2050-01-01.
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A room temperature, ambient pressure superconductor is used in household appliances by 2040 ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-12; known on 2040-01-01.
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A room temperature, ambient pressure superconductor is used in household appliances by 2030 ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-12; known on 2030-01-01.
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A paper proposing a better method for creating LK-99 is published on arxiv by Friday ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-06; known on 2023-08-11; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-12.
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General consensus that LK-99 or some component of it is a room temp superconductor by Sept 1, 2024 ( 33% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-02; known on 2024-09-01.
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General consensus that LK-99 or some component of it is a room temp superconductor by Sept 1. ( 26% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-07-31; known on 2023-09-02; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-09-02.
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Alien invasion, real or faked by end of 2025. ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-07-07; known on 2026-01-01.
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aliens invade earth in 2023 ( 0% confidence; 21 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-12; known on 2023-12-31.
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Trump is convicted in relation to the mishandling of classified information case, by 2025 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-06-11; known on 2025-01-01.
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Within 8 months of serial research, a competent team can find a “secret spilling” steering vector which gets a smart model to give up in-context secrets across a variety of situations. ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-05-13; known on 2025-05-13.
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Bakhmut completely in Ukrainian control by June 30, 2023 ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-05-12; known on 2023-06-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-07-03.
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Russia to lose at least one submarine at sea due to combat or accident by May 1, 2033. ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-04-27; known on 2033-05-01.
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I will have a paper published within 1 year on k near perfect numbers focusing on k=2. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-04-13; known on 2024-04-14.
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Earth's magnetic poles reverse by 2047. ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-04-13; known on 2047-01-01.
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Griswold v. Connecticut to be overturned by 2025. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-04-09; known on 2025-01-01.
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People in the West will be largely “living in 15-minute prison camps, eating bugs, and living in pods.” ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-04-08; known on 2030-01-01.
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StuntID will not a year state that they were overly pessimistic about the improvement rate of AI systems. ( 18% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-04-06; known on 2024-04-07.
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Artificial intelligence radically disrupts the global economy within 2 years ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by sjy on 2023-03-28; known on 2025-04-01.
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Netanyahu steps down as prime minister any time between now and 2024 ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-03-27; known on 2024-01-01.
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The U.S. federal debt ceiling is raised on or before June 30, 2023 ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-03-25; known on 2023-07-01; judged right by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-06-07.
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Capitalism will collapse. Federal gov won't exist. Peak oil ( 12% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Musrang on 2023-03-21; known on 2027-01-01.
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SpaceX will NOT land people on Mars by 2030. ( 55% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Lunchroom1685 on 2023-03-20; known on 2030-01-01.
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In 20 years, Eve and I will agree that the Long Wharf area of New Haven looks substantially aesthetically nicer than it does right now. ( 61% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-03-17; known on 2043-03-16.
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In three yeasr, gantork and I will be in agreement that robotics have not yet had the sort of fast progression they envisioned. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-03-15; known on 2026-03-15.
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By 2028 there will be a biological catastrophe worse than COVID ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-03-13; known on 2029-01-01.
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The Russo-Ukrainian war is still ongoing ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-03-13; known on 2028-02-24.
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Elon Musk steps down as CEO of Tesla ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-02-27; known on 2024-01-01.
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China will attempt an invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2025. ( 20% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2021-04-09; known on 2025-12-31.
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Elon Musk buys Silicon Valley Bank before April 30 ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-03-12; known on 2023-04-30; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-05-04.
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Biden to be diagnosed with dementia sometime by 2030 ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-02; known on 2030-01-01.
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Joe Biden will die within five years. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JohnGreer on 2020-07-25; known on 2025-07-25.
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Donald Trump will die within five years. ( 22% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JohnGreer on 2020-07-25; known on 2025-07-25.
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Marijuana will be unscheduled, taxed and regulated similar to alcohol at a federal level in the United States before 2025. ( 42% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-01-01; known on 2025-01-02.
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At least one more bank will be taken over by FDIC next week ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-03-12; known on 2023-03-17; judged right by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-03-17.
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By 2030, Elon Musk sells Twitter or allows it to declare bankruptcy ( 75% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-02; known on 2030-01-01.
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Donald Trump is indicted anywhere in the US, for any reason ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-03-10; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-03-30.
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New license or license type (like Creative Commons) will be created to try preventing unauthorized use of one own's written, picture, or video material to train AI (eg. LLM) ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by technophil on 2023-03-06; known on 2023-12-31.
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Ukraine to withdraw from Bakhmut by April 10. ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-03-05; known on 2023-04-11; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-04-11.
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Official US death total from covid to be at least 1,250,000 by March 1, 2023 ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-10-29; known on 2023-03-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-03-01.
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Sean Hannity is charged with sedition ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-02-22; known on 2028-01-01.
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Marjorie Taylor Greene is charged with sedition ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-02-22; known on 2028-01-01.
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A high-level US executive branch official states that the cylindrical flying object shot down in Alaska on Friday came from China ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-02-11; known on 2024-01-01.
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I will have published a paper by March 15, 2024 on Zaremba's function and weighted GM-AM inequality. ( 62% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-02-17; known on 2024-03-15.
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Biden loses the 2024 presidential election ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-02-15; known on 2025-02-01.
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Kinetic war between US and China ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-02-12; known on 2024-01-01.
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The world will end in 2078 to a nuclear holocaust. ( 8% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Fenrir on 2020-10-31; known on 2078-12-31.
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Joe Biden runs for president in 2024 ( 33% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-13; known on 2024-01-16.
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Trump reelected in 2024. ( 31% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by bsl5265 on 2021-11-08; known on 2024-11-05.
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Ron DeSantis runs in the 2024 Republican presidential primary. ( 81% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-25; known on 2025-01-01.
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Donald Trump will be elected president in 2024. ( 34% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Wineormilk on 2022-03-27; known on 2024-11-09.
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Elon Musk steps down as CEO of Twitter ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-19; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-31.
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By 2025, Kanye West states that he regrets his recent antisemitic statements ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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50% chance of AI by 2028 —Shane Legg ( 23% confidence; 29 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2028-01-01.
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By January 1, 2031, large-language models combined with automated proof checking systems like Lean and Coq will have contributed to proofs which have appeared in major math journals. ( 53% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-21; known on 2031-01-01.
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China builds a moonbase by 2028 ( 23% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-05; known on 2028-01-01.
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My number theory seminar students will this semester do enough research that they will have what I judge to be at least one paper's worth of results. ( 63% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-11; known on 2023-06-15; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2023-06-15.
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I will have taken over at least one country by 2035. ( 0% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-13; known on 2035-01-01.
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The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican. ( 15% confidence; 17 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.
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Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 33% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Marco Rubio will be Donald Trump's VP pick ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-01; known on 2025-01-01.
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Kevin McCarthy becomes speaker of the house ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-05; known on 2023-06-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-07.
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First Starship attempt to reach orbit or near orbit will either never reach supersonic speed or will break up before reaching Max Q. ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-12-23; known on 2024-01-01.
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Kanye West alive ( 97% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-29; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-14.
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A second lab achieves ignition in a fusion experiment ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-12; known on 2030-01-01.
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Twitter will be online on the 15th of December 2022. On that date, I will be able to post a tweet and other people will be able to see it. ( 89% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2022-11-18; known on 2022-12-15; judged right by danielfilan on 2022-12-15.
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Donald Trump runs as an Independent in the 2024 Presidential election ( 27% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by firaskanaan on 2022-11-16; known on 2024-08-16.
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Joe Biden will be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2024 ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by firaskanaan on 2022-11-16; known on 2024-03-16.
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Ron DeSantis wins the 2024 Republican presidential primary ( 56% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-14; known on 2024-09-01.
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Elizabeth Holmes to be sentenced to 4 to 12 years in prison. ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-11-13; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-11-19.
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Sam Bankman-Fried will be arrested before January 1, 2024, on charges related to the (as of 2022-11-10) liquidity crunch at FTX. ( 51% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pmberg on 2022-11-10; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-13.
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Republicans have what is widely regarded as a blowout election in their favor at the midterms, including taking both the House and Senate. ( 44% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-11-02; known on 2022-11-10; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-11-10.
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By 2030, Bluesky (Jack Dorsey startup/app) becomes widely used ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-02; known on 2030-01-01.
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Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-10-23; known on 2023-06-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-06-15.
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I will be infected with covid-19 during the next semester, i.e. between 24.10.22 and 14.2.23, and will have symptoms for at least 5 days. ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by aarmai19 on 2022-09-22; known on 2023-02-14; judged wrong by aarmai19 on 2023-04-05.
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A human has set foot on Mars ( 9% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-08-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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By June 1, Donetsk and Lughansk under complete Russian control, and Ukraine to have officially dropped any plans of joining NATO or EU, and all sanctions on Russia lifted. ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-09-01; known on 2023-06-01.
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Starship to do a full-stack launch by end of 2022. ( 59% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-08-23; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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Biden cancels all outstanding student loan debt prior to 2019 ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-08-23; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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George R. R. Martin dies before Winds of Winter is published ( 49% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-08-14; known on 2050-01-01.
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Donald Trump is indicted as a result of the documents seized from Mar-a-Lago ( 47% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-08-10; known on 2025-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-31.
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We will not have a Singularity or intelligence explosion, of the sort predicted by Yudkowsky in 'The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate – LessWrong' by 2025 ( 96% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-06-22; known on 2025-01-01.
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P vs. NP will be still unsolved at the end of this decade. ( 96% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Leifa on 2022-07-11; known on 2030-01-01.
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a nationwide ban on abortion goes into effect in the next 6 years, based on fetal personhood. ( 25% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.
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On the Internet, the language barrier will be completely erased, most browsers will automatically translate absolutely everything, including videos, indistinguishable from the original spelling in your language. ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by EniScien on 2022-07-03; known on 2027-07-03.
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Monkeypox reaches 50 in MA by July 1st ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Ionelo on 2022-06-16; known on 2022-07-01.
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Russia seizes all of Luhansk ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-06-12; known on 2022-06-30; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-07-01.
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I will have a positive covid test in the next five days. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-06-10; known on 2022-06-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-06-16.
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Amber Heard will be found liable for defaming Johnny Depp ( 50% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-05-20; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-06-01.
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Politics, Finland – Finland starts process to join NATO by end of 2022 ( 61% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-24; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2023-01-03.
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at least one major terrorist attack on a pride event with deaths. killers will reference “grooming” as cause. ( 25% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2024-05-08.
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A bill legalizing abortion in the United States at the federal level is signed into law by 2023. ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-04; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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Russian troops invade Moldova ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-02; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-29.
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Josh Hawley runs in the 2024 Republican presidential primary. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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Shurtleff v. Boston to be decided against Boston with at least six justices in the majority or concurring opinions. ( 74% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-19; known on 2022-08-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-05-02.
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Cyberattack on US occurs in 2022 and is attributed to Russia by the US government by the end of the year. ( 21% confidence; 15 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-01-26; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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Elon Musk runs for President by 2033 ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-09; known on 2033-01-01.
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Airplane mask mandate in the US to be legally in force for at least one day between now and May 15th. ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-04-19; known on 2022-05-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-05-16.
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Someone other than me makes a prediction in the next week ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-19; known on 2022-04-26; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-04-19.
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Macron will be elected president in 2022 ( 79% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mathieu on 2022-04-06; known on 2022-04-25; judged right by Baeboo on 2022-04-25.
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Elon Musk completes acquisition of Twitter ( 59% confidence; 36 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-14; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-10-30.