Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 51% | 60% | 66% | 81% | 92% | 97% | |
Sample Size | 137 | 234 | 231 | 257 | 634 | 119 | 1612 |
Displaying all predictions made by PseudonymousUser. Filter by:
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Planetary Resources won't be mining asteroids by 2020 ( 84% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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My “Master Deck” for Anki will exceed 2,000 flash cards before June, 2012. ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-14; known on 2012-06-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-16.
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I will attend at least one LessWrong meetup in person, before 2013 ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-04-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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HP MoR: HPMOR will update at least twice in 2012 ( 95% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Isaac on 2012-03-16.
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HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will update within the next three months. ( 61% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by ceterisparibus on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-02-12; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-13.
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Apple will buy Twitter before end of 2013 ( 11% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-01; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
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Google will actually produce Google Maps 8-Bit for NES (http://goo.gl/zA1BJ), and will announce this before the end of April. ( 5% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by quicklystarfish on 2012-03-31; known on 2012-05-01; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-05-01.
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I will not play another game of Dota for another 3 weeks. ( 4% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by williamycai on 2012-03-28; known on 2012-04-18; judged wrong by williamycai on 2012-04-03.
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Apple will announce a dividend on their March 19, 2012 conference call ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-03-19; known on 2012-03-20; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-03-19.
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XiXiDu will not post or comment on LW for one year. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by papermachine on 2012-03-16; known on 2013-03-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-03-16.
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XiXiDu will not comment or post to LW for 5 years, round two. ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2012-03-16; known on 2017-03-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-03-16.
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>=$1.6m will be donated towards the Center for Modern Rationality in the next month ( 1% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-12; known on 2012-04-12; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-12.
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Apple's announcement for the 4th major iPad refresh will call the new iPad “the new iPad” ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-03-09; known on 2013-08-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-11-22.
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The Syrian regime will reach EOL by december 2012. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-03-04; known on 2012-12-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-27.
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Windows will have greater than 12% market share of smart phones by March 2013 (12 months from now). ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-02; known on 2013-03-01; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-03-01.
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Bitcoinica will be hacked before 2013, resulting in at least partial loss of funds (whether or not customers are affected). ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-10; known on 2013-01-01.
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A Republican or Democratic candidate who publicly espouses Scientology will trade >=5% at any point on the Intrade market for his party's Presidential candidate nomination. ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-01; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-03-01.
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Conditional on competing in figure skating in the 2014 Winter Olympics, Yuna Kim will win a gold medal ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-02-28; known on 2014-02-23; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-20.
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Yuna Kim will compete in figure skating in the 2014 Winter Olympics ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-02-28; known on 2014-02-23; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-19.
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iPad 3 will have a quad-core CPU ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-14; known on 2012-03-08; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-03-07.
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Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ( 54% confidence; 20 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2012-02-18; known on 2032-02-17.
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I will attend the next Chicago LW meetup. ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-16; known on 2012-03-16; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-26.
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Iran's upcoming statement on its nuclear programme will not concern development of weapons ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by modulus on 2012-02-11; known on 2012-04-01; judged right by modulus on 2012-02-15.
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I will purchase Deus Ex 3 within 1 week and complete it (at least once) in less than 2 weeks after purchase. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-08; known on 2012-02-29; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-17.
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androidx86 generic_x86-20120208.iso will boot to a working GUI in VMWare ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-02-08; known on 2012-02-08; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-02-08.
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There will be at least one human being alive on earth even after the end of the year 2012 ( 99% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by vinayak on 2012-02-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by vinayak on 2013-01-01.
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Initial release of iPhone 5 or iPad 3 (or their market names) will allow installing your own applications, without jailbreaking or signing up for a developer program ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-02-05; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-21.
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There will be a Google Summer of Code in 2017 ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-02-05; known on 2017-04-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-01.
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I'll get a girlfriend this year. ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2013-01-03.
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I will listen to all of Michel Thomas – Japanese Foundation, before 2013 ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-02-01; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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I will watch all 75 episodes of Hikaru no Go before 2013. ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-29; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.
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Conditional on being offered a fulltime non-contractor with-benefits jobs at SIAI, I will accept. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-28; known on 2012-04-28; judged right by gwern on 2012-04-28.
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gwern will have a fulltime non-contractor with-benefits jobs at SIAI within 3 months —shminux ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-28; known on 2012-04-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-28.
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PredictionBook will display users' Brier scores by the end of this year. ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-25; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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I will ask out the person I currently have a crush on. They will say no. ( 65% confidence; 11 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by Leo on 2012-01-25; known on 2012-02-09; judged right by Leo on 2012-01-30.
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“There will only be three languages in the world – English, Spanish and Mandarin” —Bill Walker, BBC ( 2% confidence; 34 wagers; 24 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.
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France's Sarkozy to run for presidency. ( 96% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-01-24; known on 2012-02-15; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-02-15.
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The energy source formerly known as cold fusion will be generally accepted as real by end 2012. ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by waveman on 2012-01-13; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-31.
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I will tinker with PredictionBook's source code before April 1 and manage to add a new feature. ( 6% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-13; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-03-30.
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Google Search will be inaccessible to US visitors for at least 4 hours due to a “blackout” protesting pending legislation, before 2013 ( 5% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
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I will watch the 2013 movie 'Ender's Game' and like it, before 2019 ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-12; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
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Iran will not successfully test a nuclear weapon in 2012. ( 93% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by smijer on 2012-01-11; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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Iran will not be invaded or attacked this year ( 76% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by modulus on 2012-01-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by modulus on 2013-01-01.
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Tomorrow morning, I will have negative karma on LessWrong. ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-08; known on 2012-01-09; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-09.
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Copyright ruled unconstitutional by a US court before 2016. ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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The bitcoin protocol will have a fatal weakness that is discovered, leading to the crash of the bitcoin economy. End of year prediction. ( 3% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by kiba on 2012-01-07; known on 2012-12-30; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-31.
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The Bitcoin price will hit 8 $/฿ in January 2012 UTC. ( 55% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mqrius on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.
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Bitcoin >$9000 by February. ( 0% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.
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General AI will not be built by 2013 ( 97% confidence; 19 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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Grognor (http://lesswrong.com/user/Grognor) will reach 1000 karma on LessWrong by September 27, 2012, one year after his first comment. ( 87% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-01-04; known on 2012-09-27; judged right by Grognor on 2012-03-13.
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No contact with intelligent aliens be made in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 31 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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I will be murdered during my stay in Mexico City. ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-17.
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By Jan 1, 2013, there will be a way to directly input your estimated probability distribution across a range of different possible quantities when making a prediction on PB. ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-01-01.
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Steve Jobs’s will shall donate >=50% of his wealth to charity ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Steve Jobs's will shall donate >=99% of his wealth to charity. ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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The Bitcoin price will hit 6 $/฿ in January 2012 UTC. ( 81% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Mqrius on 2012-01-01; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-05.
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Barack Obama will be re-elected President of the United States of America ( 77% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by georgesdelatour on 2012-01-01; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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I will make at least one prediction on PredictionBook in 2013 ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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Before 2013, the US embassy in Beijing will stop publicly reporting air pollution readings (at least one continuous month with no readings) ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-28; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.
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The Yellowstone Supervolcano will have a magmatic eruption before 2023 ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-27; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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I will receive <10 items of anonymous feedback on my form. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-27; known on 2012-01-27; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-27.
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I will edit my keyboard layout and build it today. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-23; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-22.
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Dexter season 7: Dexter will intentionally kill Deb ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-21; known on 2012-12-19; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-12-17.
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Steve Ballmer will be CEO of Microsoft at the end of 2012 ( 78% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by faws on 2011-12-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by faws on 2013-01-01.
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Ron Paul will win the Iowa Caucus. ( 39% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2011-12-20; known on 2012-01-03; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-01-04.
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Within 5 years biometrics will displace passwords (IBM “5 in 5” http://asmarterplanet.com/blog/2011/12/the-next-5-in-5-you-will-never-need-a-password-again.html) ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-12-20; known on 2016-12-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-12-20.
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Dexter season 7: Deb forgets the finale of season 6. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-12-19; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-12-17.
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I will enjoy Sherlock Holmes tonight. ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-15; known on 2011-12-16; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-15.
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Silverlight 6 (or higher version) will be released for Windows before 2015 ( 42% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-13; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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Before 2013, Google will stop developing Chrome OS, or announce a Chromebook running Android, or announce a netbook/ultrabook-shaped successor running Android ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020. ( 21% confidence; 21 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by ceterisparibus on 2011-11-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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“[Hillary] Clinton will be Obama's running mate” ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-10; known on 2012-09-03; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-03.
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France to lose AAA credit rating before midnight ET 30 Jun 2012 —Intrade ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-08; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-13.
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WinDirStat will crash or stop responding for 30 minutes on my ~7M+ file scan ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-08; known on 2011-12-08; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-08.
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gwern.net will be up and accessible with content in 2020. ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-08; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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The Bitcoin price will hit 4 $/฿ in December 2011. ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Mqrius on 2011-12-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by Mqrius on 2011-12-20.
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James Randi will live to be 93 years old. ( 44% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2011-12-05; known on 2021-08-07; judged wrong by gav on 2020-11-10.
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Logos01 will commit suicide in 5 years. ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-05; known on 2016-12-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-12-05.
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{__slots__} will be added to NamedConstant before it is first merged to trunk ( 14% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-12-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-04.
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Alcor will perform >=1 cryopreservations in 2060. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2061-01-01.
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lukeprog will make >2 predictions on PB during 2012. ( 64% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-04.
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Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070 ( 22% confidence; 12 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-04; known on 2070-01-01.
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The new Silk Road URL will be revealed to be a scam/phishing/law enforcement one. ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 109 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-02; known on 2012-12-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-02.
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Grognor will host a meetup at his university by the end of January 2012, and I will successfully convince either gwern or drethelin that I attended Grognor's meetup. ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2011-11-30; known on 2012-02-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.
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Grognor will hold a meetup at his university by the end of January 2012, and me & drethelin will donate $10 to charity as agreed in #lesswrong ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-30; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.
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Mitt Romney will be the next President of the United States. He will win the Republican nomination and win the general election in 2012. ( 31% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by capcuervo on 2011-11-26; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-07.
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I will not stick with SWTOR after the beta. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by baslisks on 2011-11-26; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by baslisks on 2011-12-05.
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baslisks will join #lesswrong any time in December ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-11-24; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by Jach on 2011-12-02.
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My guinea pig will learn to move in a circle on command in 2 months time. ( 37% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by roshni on 2011-11-23; known on 2012-01-30; judged wrong by roshni on 2012-03-05.
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“Orkut to be merged with Google Plus in the near future” —Chris Jolley ( 33% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-23; known on 2013-11-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-11-23.
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“Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150.” -lukeprog ( 66% confidence; 13 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20; known on 2150-01-01.
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I will get the job I'm interviewing for on Tuesday ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by roshni on 2011-11-18; known on 2011-12-30; judged right by roshni on 2011-11-22.
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Harbinger1 is a genuine user but unfamiliar with LessWrong tropes ( 64% confidence; 7 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-17; known on 2011-12-17; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-20.
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Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025. ( 10% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-01-16.
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“Lindsay Lohan will be dead within 2 years.” ( 8% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-16; known on 2013-11-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-16.
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I will continue using PredictionBook at least once a month until 2015. ( 33% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-01.
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I will brainstorm ideas for anything for the first 5-10 minutes after I wake up in the mornings, and record them all. I will do this every day for at least 1 month. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by divad12 on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-12-15; judged right by divad12 on 2012-01-07.
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“Sometime in the next five years, there will be a terroristic attack in or near Las Vegas.” -David Henderson ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-14; known on 2016-11-14; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-14.
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My continuous web archiving system will have 90%+ uptime in 2012 ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-11-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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30 new speaker invitations for Singularity Summit 2012 will be written by the end of Monday, Nov. 14th. ( 78% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2011-11-12; known on 2011-11-15; judged right by lukeprog on 2011-11-15.