Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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By 2020, a single-word term for additive fabrication technology will replace “3D printing” in the media. ( 53% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-02-03; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Leo on 2020-01-01.
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“Acute spinal injuries are fully treatable” in 2019 ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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“China's current regime will be overthrown or reformed (another political Party come into power) before 2020” ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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Three-dimensional nanotube lattices are the dominant computing substrate by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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[USDCNY: As of December 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.8 ( 84% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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[USDCNY: As of December 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.7 ( 90% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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I will finish my Evangelion research and write my essay/book on it by 2020. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-13; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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'The graphics card market collapses due to them overshooting consumer demand* and possibly being subsumed by new CPUs.' by 2020 —Shane Legg ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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'high-end gaming PCs will still have dedicated GPU chips somewhere in them in 2020, and that those chips will cost at least $200 for top-of-the-range and at least $100 for mid range' —Roko ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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A Myst live-action movie will not be released before 2020. ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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There will be an armed insurrection in the US involving >1000 combatants. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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“The president (or some other position selected through open elections) is the highest position in the Iranian state” —Jack ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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Bitcoin (BTC) touches $20,000 USD before January 1st, 2020 ( 7% confidence; 22 wagers )
Created by jamesrom on 2019-06-24; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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“I am 99% confident that AGI [AI] comparable to or better than a human, friendly or otherwise, will not be developed in the next ten years.” —Richard Kennaway ( 96% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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“Self-replicating manufacturing machines will be commonplace by 2020.” ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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“By the year 2020 the technology will exist that will allow for the “faxing” (teleportation- sending/receiving) of actual inanimate objects, such as text books, clothing, jewelery and the like.” ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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“By 2020, in real or artificial life, sustainable evolutionary progress in a genetically closed system will not have been demonstrated.” ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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“By 2020, bioterror or bioerror will lead to one million casualties in a single event.” ( 4% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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No military draft in the United States before 2020. ( 90% confidence; 33 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by komponisto on 2009-10-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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When DeepDream for audio is invented, the output will cause seriously ill effects in humans like seizures. This will happen before 2020. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Houshalter on 2016-02-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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gwern.net will be up and accessible with content in 2020. ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-08; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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Synthetic meat will be mass-marketed by 2020. ( 26% confidence; 15 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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“By 2020, no one will have won a Nobel Prize for work on superstring theory, membrane theory, or some other unified theory describing all the forces of nature.” ( 81% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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Public demonstration of an AI that can learn the rules of, and play at a superhuman level, most board/card games without supervision, just watching many games and being told who won, in 2018 or 2019. ( 64% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2017-12-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-01-01.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky to have at least 1 child by 2020 ( 22% confidence; 31 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by sdr on 2015-10-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-01-01.
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Any UN member state to recognize Taiwan or ROC in 2019 ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-31; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Politics – North Korea conducts a nuclear test before 1 January 2020. ( 36% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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North Korea to test a nuclear weapon in 2019 ( 26% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-11; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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“MbS still in power” ( 92% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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“Xi still in power” ( 96% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Trump will remain president as of January 1st, 2020 ( 89% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Selentelechia on 2019-01-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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The James Webb Telescope will launch successfully by the end of 2019 ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Reddit will exist in a recognizably similar form to its current incarnation, as of December 31, 2019. ( 70% confidence; 16 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sflicht on 2015-12-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by sflicht on 2020-01-01.
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Quora will be bankrupt or acquired by a third party before 2020. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by sflicht on 2016-08-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by sflicht on 2020-01-01.
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Boson Sampling or Scattershot Boson Sampling with at least 10 photons to be performed by January 1, 2020. ( 35% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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The Majorana Demonstrator or its successor experiment will find 5-sigma evidence of neutrinoless double beta decay by January 1, 2020. ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-11; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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US official unemployment rate to remain between 3% and 7.5% through January 1, 2020. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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Before January 1, 2020 the Dow will stay within 12,500 and 29,000 ( 72% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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Gwern has dissociative identity disorder and the identity of his split personality is Yvain. ( 0% confidence; 28 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2020-01-01.
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A state will try & succeed in seceding from the US. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2020-01-01.
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By 2020, at least 25% of colleges in the US in 2015 will be bankrupt or otherwise defunct. ( 11% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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By 2020, marijuana will be widely used in the US to treat neurodenerative diseases and and multiple new drugs based on cannabis research will have been patented or in least final stages of FDA approval. ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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A mundane, accepted explanation for the apparent imaginary mass of neutrinos will be found by 2020 that does not involve the neutrinos actually having imaginary mass (e.g. some form of systematic error). ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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Twin prime conjecture solved by 2020 ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-05-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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Tentative announcements of the discovery of intelligent life in other solar systems will appear in peer reviewed journals by 2020. ( 12% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-05-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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“By the year 2020, the tickets to space travel – at the least to Moon, will be available over the counter.” ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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The oldest living person on 2020-01-01 will be at least 130 years old. ( 0% confidence; 15 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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The technology to render a human effectively invisible (i.e. apparently transparent) to the eye at a distance of less than 100 meters will be publicly demonstrated by 2020. ( 46% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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In 2020, every single one of the 5 tallest buildings in the world will be located in China, Hong Kong, or Taiwan. ( 27% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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“By the year 2020 solar electricity will be as cheap or cheaper than that produced by fossil fuels.” ( 70% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.