Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 46% | 56% | 66% | 70% | 86% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 35 | 70 | 98 | 77 | 379 | 0 | 659 |
Displaying all predictions made by Mike. Filter by:
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There will be more than 10 private user groups on PredictionBook by the end of this week (click the “Groups” link people!). ( 52% confidence; 13 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Mike on 2017-06-26; known on 2017-07-02; judged right by Matt on 2017-07-01.
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I will leave work on or before 6:00pm every day this week. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Mike on 2017-06-03; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by Mike on 2017-06-14.
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[This week, I will get] more than 56 hours of sleep ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Mike on 2017-05-28; known on 2017-06-04; judged wrong by Mike on 2017-06-03.
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[This week, I will get] between 49 and 56 hours of sleep ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Mike on 2017-05-28; known on 2017-06-04; judged right by Mike on 2017-06-03.
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[This week, I will get] less than 49 hours of sleep ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Mike on 2017-05-28; known on 2017-06-04; judged wrong by Mike on 2017-06-03.
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I will continue to allocate thirty minutes a day to journalling and task management for the first week of the experiment and will not miss a session. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Mike on 2017-05-21; known on 2017-05-28; judged right by Mike on 2017-05-28.
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President Trump will resign on his 146 th day in office ( 9% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by John8128 on 2017-05-16; known on 2017-06-15; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-06-15.
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I will stay on the ketogenic diet for at least three weeks starting tomorrow, Monday 1 May. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Mike on 2017-04-30; known on 2017-05-22; judged wrong by Mike on 2017-05-21.
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I will get at least 52 hours of sleep between now and next Sunday, as measured by the SleepCycle app I use on my phone. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Mike on 2017-04-30; known on 2017-05-07; judged wrong by Mike on 2017-05-07.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep between Sunday 23 April and Sunday 30 April. ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Mike on 2017-04-24; known on 2017-04-30; judged wrong by Mike on 2017-04-30.
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I will manage to get into ketosis at least once by the end of May. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Mike on 2017-04-16; known on 2017-05-31; judged right by Mike on 2017-05-03.
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The United States will be in an active, major war with North Korea as of May 1, 2017. ( 8% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-11; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-05-01.
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By adding support for JS unit testing, we expect the feature test suite duration to drop by 30s–1min (by replacing the sign up specs) on CI ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Wes on 2017-02-07; known on 2017-03-07; judged wrong by Wes on 2017-03-21.
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By ensuring that the other two teams can focus on their objective by dealing with “forced move” stories, we expect PPD for other two teams to go up between 0.1 to 0.25. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jais Cheema on 2017-02-03; known on 2017-04-28; judged wrong by Mike on 2017-05-02.
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Someone will find an exception-throwing bug in one of the 5000 lines of the PredictionBook source code that I just deployed in the first week. ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mike on 2016-05-26; known on 2016-06-02; judged right by Mike on 2016-05-28.
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Deployments in the next 16 days will reduce the amount of Bellroy WIP (stories started and not yet accepted) down to 12 stories or less. ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mike on 2015-05-19; known on 2015-06-05; judged wrong by Mike on 2015-06-11.
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I will have at least one pint of beer with Dan on Friday afternoon. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Mike on 2014-10-07; known on 2014-10-10; judged right by Mike on 2014-10-10.
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I start polyphasic sleeping successfully. ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Mike on 2014-09-15; known on 2015-01-31; judged wrong by Mike on 2015-01-14.
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A fight breaks out at my 20 year high school reunion over something that happened 20 years ago. ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mike on 2014-09-15; known on 2014-10-19; judged wrong by Mike on 2014-10-19.
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My son will have his first tooth by the end of September. ( 20% confidence )
Created by Mike on 2014-09-15; known on 2014-09-30; judged wrong by Mike on 2014-09-30.
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I will have no mortgage by the end of April 2015. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Mike on 2014-09-15; known on 2015-04-30; judged wrong by Mike on 2015-03-31.
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I finish all five items on my “To Do Today” list tomorrow. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Mike on 2014-09-15; known on 2014-09-16; judged right by Mike on 2014-09-16.
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Australia will see its first domestic, large scale “terror” attack within six months of becoming involved in the ISIS campaign. ( 17% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Mike on 2014-09-15; known on 2015-03-31; judged wrong by Mike on 2015-03-31.
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Decommissioning of extract will be completed without issue. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Mike on 2014-09-15; known on 2014-09-18; judged right by Mike on 2014-09-19.
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Bellroy and Trike will move from their West Melbourne office to the new Fitzroy office on 26th Sept. ( 91% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Lina on 2014-09-15; known on 2014-09-27; judged right by nadia on 2014-09-29.
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An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100. ( 57% confidence; 18 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by nshepperd on 2014-09-08; known on 2100-01-01.
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There will be a computer input device that is faster at text input than a keyboard (average of 1.5x speedup or more), reasonably quiet (not standard text dictation), and does not require the use of the eyes. Used by 20% of software developers. ( 25% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by zpinter on 2013-03-31; known on 2018-03-31; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-04-05.
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Malcome Turnbull will be the next PM of Australia? ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dkidston on 2012-02-08; known on 2013-11-16; judged right by Mike on 2014-09-16.