Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 51% | 60% | 66% | 81% | 92% | 97% | |
Sample Size | 137 | 234 | 231 | 257 | 634 | 119 | 1612 |
Displaying all predictions made by PseudonymousUser. Filter by:
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I will try some kind of VR HMD before 2017 ( 98% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-07.
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Before 2017, I will switch from Ubuntu back to Windows for most of my desktop computing ( 17% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-01.
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Indonesia to recognize same sex marriage before January 1, 2017 ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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Apple's stock price will go above $120 before January 1, 2017. ( 56% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02; known on 2017-01-02; judged wrong by mortehu on 2016-12-30.
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Apple's stock price will go above $110 before February 1, 2016 ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02; known on 2016-02-02; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-02.
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I will purchase an Oculus Rift by March 30, 2016 ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02; known on 2016-04-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-08.
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Ebola epidemic has ended. ( 93% confidence; 16 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-01-14; judged right by ioannes on 2016-01-14.
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2016 predictions: No US politicians will be assassinated. ( 92% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-12-31.
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2016 predictions: there will not be any terrorist attacks in the US that kill more than 40 people. ( 74% confidence; 22 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-12.
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Donald Trump to be the next US President. ( 26% confidence; 73 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-30; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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Rey is Luke's daughter. ( 59% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2015-12-29; known on 2019-12-29; judged wrong by krazemon on 2019-12-24.
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I will still be employed at my current job one year after my start date. ( 65% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-12-28; known on 2016-10-05; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-10-05.
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Reddit will exist in a recognizably similar form to its current incarnation, as of December 31, 2019. ( 70% confidence; 16 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sflicht on 2015-12-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by sflicht on 2020-01-01.
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US citizen killed by US government in drone strike on continental US soil before 2023 ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-13; known on 2024-01-01.
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War between North and South Korea breaks out by Jan 1, 2016 ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-11; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-31.
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Craig S. Wright will not (in the next year) demonstrate possession of the key with fingerprint DE4E FCA3 E1AB 9E41 CE96 CECB 18C0 9E86 5EC9 48A1, nor of any other key or bitcoin convincingly belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto. ( 82% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by James Babcock on 2015-12-09; known on 2016-12-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-09.
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Scott Adams – I predict Trump gets at least 65% of the votes in the general election. ( 4% confidence; 20 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by halfwit on 2015-11-03; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Invictus Gaming will win worlds. ( 25% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-01; known on 2015-10-31.
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One of the remaining teams (others) will win worlds. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-01; known on 2015-10-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-11-02.
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H2K will win worlds. ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-01; known on 2015-10-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-12.
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CLG will win worlds. ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-01; known on 2015-10-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-12.
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Origen will win worlds. ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-01; known on 2015-10-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-11-02.
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SKT1 will win worlds. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-01; known on 2015-10-31; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-11-02.
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Fnatic will win worlds. ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-01; known on 2015-10-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-11-02.
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C9 will win worlds. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-01; known on 2015-10-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-12.
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TSM will win worlds. ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-01; known on 2015-10-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-12.
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Kanye West elected President by 2032 — Scott Adams ( 0% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2015-09-23; known on 2032-11-10.
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Donald Trump will lose the Iowa caucuses. ( 61% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by KBVMD on 2015-09-13; known on 2016-02-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-02.
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Hillary Clinton will be the 2016 Democratic nominee for US President. ( 81% confidence; 39 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by m2bn on 2015-09-11; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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Bernie Sanders is the next US President elect ( 12% confidence; 30 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-09-03; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by Afforess on 2016-10-06.
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Ted Cruz to win the Republican nomination for President. ( 14% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-27; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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Bernie Sanders will win the 2016 Iowa Democratic caucus. ( 29% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-08-25; known on 2016-02-02; judged wrong by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-02.
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Joe Biden will win the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination. ( 10% confidence; 28 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-08-25; known on 2016-09-15; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-09-02.
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Brayden will get accepted into YC at today's interview. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by dusk on 2015-08-25; known on 2015-08-27; judged wrong by dusk on 2015-08-26.
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Uber will be banned from Manhattan by the end of 2016. ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mikayla on 2015-08-21; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2017-01-01.
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Donald Trump to be the next elected President of the United Stated. ( 21% confidence; 53 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-10; known on 2016-11-12; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-09.
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India to have its own manned space flight by January 1, 2025 ( 62% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-07; known on 2025-01-01.
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No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2100. ( 70% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-05; known on 2100-01-01.
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My future will be bright and enjoyable. ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-07-21; known on 2016-12-30; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-12-29.
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No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040. ( 86% confidence; 24 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-19; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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US 2016 Presidential election to be Trump v. Sanders ( 5% confidence; 40 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-17; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020 ( 83% confidence; 40 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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By January 1, 2017, no unambiguous contact with intelligent extraterrestrials. ( 99% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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Hillary Clinton to be the next US President, and win popular vote by at least 4.5% ( 27% confidence; 17 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-05; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Extreme upset of how things are by January 30th, 2016 ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-23; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-01.
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Jeb Bush to be the 2016 Republican nominee. ( 49% confidence; 18 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-17; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-02-21.
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[GoT] Cleganebowl in S05E10. ( 60% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-13; known on 2015-06-17; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-15.
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[GoT] R + L = J will be revealed/referenced before the end of season 6. ( 50% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-03; known on 2016-08-02; judged right by HonoreDB on 2016-08-04.
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[GoT] FTW won't happen in season 5. They will save that for next season. ( 60% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-07; known on 2015-06-17; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-15.
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The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01 ( 82% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-11; known on 2025-07-01.
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arXiv will operate through 2025-07-01 ( 86% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-11; known on 2025-07-01.
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GitHub will operate through 2025-07-01 ( 75% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-11; known on 2025-07-01.
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I will go on a date with the next person I have a crush on. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-04; known on 2017-06-05; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-03-29.
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Ludovico Einaudi will still be my favourite composer five years from now. ( 79% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-04; known on 2020-06-05; judged right by stepan on 2021-04-30.
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I will learn to cook, and will turn out to be better at it than my parents. ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-04; known on 2020-06-05; judged right by stepan on 2021-04-30.
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Google's Project Jacquard will be wildly successful. We will use clothes/furniture to control both the behaviour of our devices and the data stored on — or accessed via — said devices. ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-03; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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It'll take me less than two months to learn high school economics and business studies. ( 50% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-03; known on 2015-08-05; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-08-05.
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Aam Aadmi Party, like the Indian National Congress, will disappear from the electoral map of India. ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-03; known on 2030-01-01.
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I will develop some sort of a personal uniform (colour and/or style) and rarely deviate from it. ( 25% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-03; known on 2025-01-01.
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We will win ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-06-02; known on 2015-06-02; judged right by RoryS on 2015-06-02.
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R+L=J to be explicitly referenced on screen by the end of Season 5 of Game of Thrones ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by BiasedCalibration on 2015-05-28; known on 2015-06-14; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-15.
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Rate of violent crime in Pakistan will start dropping around 2020, correlated with lead exposure 20 years earlier ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2015-05-24; known on 2030-12-31.
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Hillary Clinton to withdraw from the US presidential election by March 17th, 2016, and Martin O'Malley to be the Democratic nominee. ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-23; known on 2016-03-17; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-17.
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I will get attacked on Tera while leveling because people are cunts. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-11; known on 2015-05-12; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-12.
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I will reach level 17 on Tera, learn some Python and watch a few episodes of Anime ALL before I go sleep tonight. ( 55% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-11; known on 2015-05-12; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-12.
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Rory would have heard of E.S. Posthumus. ( 50% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-08; known on 2015-05-08; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-09.
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Hillary chooses Julian Castro as her running mate ( 34% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2015-05-05; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-23.
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My cat will have food in his bowl when I go to check. ( 80% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-04; known on 2015-05-04; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-04.
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I will stick to Firefox as my default browser over Chrome. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-04; known on 2015-05-31; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-14.
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I will move onto the next section of Python, in this online course, by the end of today. ( 60% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-04; known on 2015-05-04; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-04.
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Hillary chooses Sanders as running mate. ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-05-04; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-23.
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I will have a super awesome computer before the release of Black Desert (in Europe). ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-02; known on 2016-06-01.
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My thread on the League Forums has likely been downvoted. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-02; known on 2015-05-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-02.
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The temperature for today will be 14-15c when I check BBC weather. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-02; known on 2015-05-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-02.
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I will read some more Less Wrong articles by the end of today. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-02; known on 2015-05-03; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-04.
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I will have completed more than 40% of the Python course by the end of today. ( 50% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-02; known on 2015-05-03; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-04.
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I will redownload Tera today, hopefully it will have no problems. ( 75% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-02; known on 2015-05-03; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-04.
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I will complete everything on my revision list before I leave the library ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-02; known on 2015-05-03; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-03.
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Bernie Sanders to win the Democratic nomination. ( 18% confidence; 66 wagers; 38 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-02; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-10.
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Bernie Sanders to be the next elected President of the United States ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-01; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-10.
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Rory will attain 300 achievement points on BGO before the end of the month. ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-26; known on 2015-04-30; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-30.
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THIS ANIME I LOVE WILL HAVE ITS LATEST EPISODE RELEASED WHEN I GO TO CHECK. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-30; known on 2015-04-30; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-30.
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I will get employed throughout May. ( 50% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-05-31; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-06-05.
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I will finish ahead of Nathan this game ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-28; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-28.
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We will win this game on BGO (provided Nathan's internet remains on) ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-28; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-28.
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Hillary Clinton to be the next elected President of the United States. ( 56% confidence; 43 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-27; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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I will do 75 sit-ups before I go to sleep tonight ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-28; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-05-01.
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We will win this game of league. ( 50% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-27; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-27.
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I will beat my lane opponent in this game of league. ( 70% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-27; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-27.
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I will get the lane I want in the next game of league. ( 60% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-27; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-27.
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I will make sure to read through some Less Wrong articles today! ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-27; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-27.
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I will do 50 sit-ups before I go to sleep ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-27; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-27.
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I will get the number of the next person I approach ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-26; known on 2015-05-03; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-22.
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I will do extensive revision for at least two of my modules by the time I go to sleep tonight ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-26; known on 2015-04-27; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-27.
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Roman will be on league of legends when I log in. ( 70% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-26; known on 2015-04-26; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-26.
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The temperature for today, when I check BBC weather, will be around 17-18c. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-26; known on 2015-04-26; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-26.
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I will clean up my room tomorrow. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-26; known on 2015-04-27; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-27.
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I will not burn my Pizza tonight. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-26; known on 2015-04-26; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-26.
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By May 8, 2015, my chess rating on the iPhone app will increase to 850. Don't hate on my fantastic rating ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-22; known on 2015-05-08; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2015-05-09.
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I will end up showering for longer than 30 minutes. ( 90% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-20; known on 2015-04-20; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-20.