Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 39% | 66% | 61% | 81% | 77% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 23 | 29 | 23 | 16 | 13 | 2 | 106 |
Displaying all predictions made by InquilineKea. Filter by:
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World of Warcraft will be shut dow before 2023 ( 28% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by silacoid on 2015-08-05; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by drakino on 2023-01-01.
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Oil will account for a lower raw amount of energy consumption in 2030 than in 2020 ( 63% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-04; known on 2031-01-01.
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By 2040, people will be able to eat as much as they'd like without getting fat ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-04; known on 2041-01-01.
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We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040 ( 52% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-04; known on 2041-01-01.
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HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire) ( 56% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-04; known on 2041-01-01.
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By 2040, top athletes in their 50s will match the performance of athletes decades younger using advanced medicine (Daniel Lemire). ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-04; known on 2041-01-01.
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At least 25% of all total meals in the world will be prepared by robot chefs by 2025 ( 15% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-02; known on 2026-01-01.
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Made-for-delivery restaurants like Sprig will account for at least 10% of restaurant purchases by 2025 (https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-future-of-food-delivery-1/answer/Adam-DAngelo) ( 39% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-01; known on 2026-01-01.
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North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030 ( 19% confidence; 17 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-29; known on 2031-01-01.
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US will ally with Iran by 2030 – Alex Lightman ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-29; known on 2031-01-01.
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Cuba to become the fastest growing world economy during the 2020s – Alex Lightman ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-29; known on 2031-01-01; judged unknown by InquilineKea on 2015-08-03.
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“China will be 1/3rd desert before the 2030s and running out of water in many places” – Alex Lightman ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-29; known on 2031-01-01.
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At least one financial collapse will happen to the US in the 2020s ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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Social Security in US to still exist by 2050 ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-29; known on 2051-01-01; judged unknown by David on 2015-08-01.
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“Some p2p cryptocurrency is going to become THE world reserve currency this decade” – Jacob Cannell ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2021-01-01.
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> 50% of new PC games to have a Linux port by 2025 ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2026-01-01; judged unknown by InquilineKea on 2015-08-03.
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Rand Paul to do IAmA by 2016 ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2017-01-01.
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Blockchain-based social platform to come out by 2020, and become a Top 1000 site (https://medium.com/@ryanxcharles/fix-reddit-with-bitcoin-7da3f85fb9ba ) ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2021-01-01.
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There will be an commercially available way to auto-scan all your old notebooks into your hard drives by 2020 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2021-01-01.
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Strong AI to arise out of IBM ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2099-01-01.
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Bitcoin will collapse as a currency by 2030 ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2031-01-01.
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California almond production to be less than 50% that of 2015 by 2025 ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2026-01-01.
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Titan to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2099-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2099-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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Europa to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2099-01-01.
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At least one centenarian to volunteer for anti amyloid therapy by 2025 ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-27; known on 2026-01-16.
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YouTube to allow searching videos by audio contained in the video by 2025 ( 66% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-27; known on 2026-01-16.
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Manually driving a car will be outlawed in the U.S. by 2035 ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-27; known on 2036-01-01; judged unknown by InquilineKea on 2015-08-04.
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“by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system” ( 5% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-26; known on 2031-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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Movie theaters to be less popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-25; known on 2021-01-01.
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Oliver Sacks will live into 2016 ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-25; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-15.
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Kepler 425b to have detectable life on it ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-23; known on 2099-01-01.
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Rex Computing products (including the Neo Chip) to capture at least 1% of the CPU market by 2020 (see http://fortune.com/2015/07/21/rex-computing/?xid=soc_socialflow_facebook_FORTUNE, http://www.rexcomputing.com/) ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-22; known on 2021-01-01.
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Goodreads to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-22; known on 2021-01-01.
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The Verge to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-21; known on 2021-01-01.
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Christopher P. McKay to do IAmA on reddit by 2025 ( 51% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-21; known on 2026-01-01.
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New York Times to have higher readership in 2025 than 2015 ( 35% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-21; known on 2026-01-01.
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On average, there will be more measles cases in the last half of the 2010s than the first half of the 2010s ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-21; known on 2021-01-01.
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Will Wright to do an IAmA on reddit by 2025 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-21; known on 2026-01-01.
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Humanity to land on an asteroid before landing on Mars ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-20; known on 2090-01-01.
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Humanity to land on Phobos before landing on Mars ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-20; known on 2090-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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Instagram to allow screenshots to be taken of computer/smartphone screenshots by 2020 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-19; known on 2021-01-01.
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gyazo to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-19; known on 2021-01-01.
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2020s to be warmer than the 2010s ( 83% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-18; known on 2031-01-01.
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Godel Escher Bach will be available as a free online eBook by 2025 (in the way the Feynman lectures are) ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-17; known on 2026-01-01.
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Volume of physical books sold in 2020 to be greater than that in 2015 ( 27% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-17; known on 2021-01-01.
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Airbnb to be acquired by 2025 ( 34% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-17; known on 2026-01-01.
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Mealsquares will be more popular than soylent (by number of customers) by 2020 ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-16.
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Voyager 1 to outlast Juno ( 80% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2026-01-01.
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Voyager 1 to outlast New Horizons ( 10% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2026-01-01.
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We will be able to identify the genome-wide significant SNPs (collectively) responsible for 10% of the heritability in adult IQ by 2020 ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-03.
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N'kisi the parrot to live to 2030 ( 45% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-16; known on 2031-01-01.
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Number of web application developers to be higher in 2025 than 2015 ( 64% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-17; known on 2026-01-01.
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Number of back-end developers to be higher in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-17; known on 2021-01-01.
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Number of front-end developers to be higher in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-17; known on 2021-01-01.
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US 2016 Presidential election to be Trump v. Sanders ( 5% confidence; 40 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-17; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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Samsung to be more valuable in 2025 than 2010 ( 65% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-16; known on 2026-01-01.
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Sony to be more valuable in 2025 than 2010 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-16; known on 2026-01-01.
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Nintendo to be more valuable in 2025 than 2010 ( 35% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-16; known on 2026-01-01.
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reocities (or some other backup of geocities websites as comprehensive as reocities) to last to 2030 ( 51% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-16; known on 2031-01-01.
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25I-NBOMe to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-16; known on 2021-01-01.
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George H.W. Bush to live beyond Gerald Ford's record lifespan ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-16; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Josh Holland on 2018-01-31.
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Sirocco the kakapo to die before 2030 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-16; known on 2031-01-01.
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By 2030, there will be commercial and/or free applications/overlays that will present the user with lie/truth probabilities of a talking person – useful e.g. for politicians in TV debates. It could be video analysis, augmented reality overlays or somethin ( 45% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by silacoid on 2015-07-16; known on 2030-01-01.
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At least one of the Voyagers to outlast the James Webb Space Telescope ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-16; known on 2026-01-01.
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Cascadia megathrust earthquake (of magnitude 8+) to hit Seattle before 2030 ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2031-01-01.
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Rupert Murdoch will still lead Fox News after his 90th birthday ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by stepan on 2022-01-03.
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Minecraft to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2021-10-13.
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nautil.us to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-01.
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aeon.co to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-01.
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http://fivethirtyeight.com/ to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 51% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-01.
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BuzzFeed to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-01.
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cracked.com to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 30% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-01.
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io9 to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-01.
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vox to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-01.
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Voyager 1 to outlast Dawn Mission ( 75% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2026-01-01.
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Voyager 1 to outlast the Mars Curiosity rover ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2026-01-01.
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We will be able to identify the genes (collectively) responsible for 10% of the variance in ADHD by 2020 ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-01.
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Modafinil to be more popular in US in 2025 than 2015 ( 67% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2026-01-16.
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Harvard endowment in 2020 to exceed that of 2015 ( 61% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-16; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2021-10-13.
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At least one Apollo astronaut will see man land on Mars ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2035-01-16.
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Vine to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Lee Teng-Hui to become a centenarian ( 15% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by n99 on 2022-10-28.
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Chuck Yeager to become a centenarian ( 15% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by Leo on 2021-12-03.
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There will be a House Mouse that lives up to 6 years by 2025 ( 45% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2026-01-01.
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Yasuhiro Nakasone will become the longest-lived Prime Minister of Japan ( 15% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2020-07-13; judged wrong by InquilineKea on 2020-07-13.
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IBM to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015 ( 38% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Microsoft to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015 ( 35% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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There will be more Scarlet Macaws in 2030 than 2010 ( 20% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.
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There to be more kakapo in 2030 than 2010 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.
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There to be more orcas in 2030 than 2010 ( 10% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.
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Facebook to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015 ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by davatk on 2021-01-01.
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Twitter to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015 ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Google to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015 ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by davatk on 2021-01-01.
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Apple to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Matlab to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Ketamine to be more popular in 2025 than 2015 ( 60% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2026-01-01.
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Amphetamines to be more popular in 2025 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2026-01-01.
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Portland, OR to have higher population in 2030 than 2010 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.
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Haskell to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.