Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] NIKKEI 225 (now 21801) ( 54% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-03.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] FTSE 100 (now 7187) ( 43% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-03.
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OSU is online only by 1 November ( 80% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-09-04; known on 2020-11-02; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-11-02.
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I will not get my prescription today ( 60% confidence )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-02; known on 2020-11-02; judged wrong by srconstantin on 2020-11-02.
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It will rain tomorrow in NYC ( 65% confidence )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-10-30; known on 2020-10-31; judged wrong by srconstantin on 2020-11-02.
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Andrew Yang runs as a third party candidate ( 13% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-06-03; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-11-02.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] KOSPI (now 2049) ( 51% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged right by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] Hang Seng (now 26307) ( 52% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] SSI Shanghai (now 2973) ( 46% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged right by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] CAC 40 (now 5628) ( 48% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] OMX Tallinn (now 1236) ( 52% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] NSE-All Share Nigeria (now 26584) ( 46% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] DJIA (now 26756) ( 48% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] ASX 200 (now 6607) ( 45% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be Australian ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known on 2020-10-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be Japanese ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known on 2020-10-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be Chinese ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known on 2020-10-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be Norwegian ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known on 2020-10-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be Swedish ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known on 2020-10-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be British ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known on 2020-10-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be French ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known on 2020-10-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] No winner to be American ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known on 2020-10-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be American ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known on 2020-10-20; judged right by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] More than one winner ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known on 2020-10-20; judged right by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be Canadian ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known on 2020-10-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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US Economy: Bureau of Economic Analysis to have announced that US quarter-on-quarter GDP growth was negative for any quarter between 2019 Q1 and 2020 Q3. ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-10-22; judged right by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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LVŽS to retain its plurality in Lithuania's parliament after 2020 election ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-10-26; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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LVŽS to retain its plurality in Lithuania's parliament after 2020 election ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-10-26; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4200 ( 81% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-10-27; judged right by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4300 ( 68% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-10-27; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4400 ( 43% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-10-27; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4500 ( 25% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-10-27; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[US politics] The 2020 Democratic VP candidate to be one of the participants in the July 2019 debate ( 55% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-09; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Fighting] Claressa Shields to have a professional MMA bout by 2020-07-31 ( 57% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-01; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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UFC, Bellator, or ONE fighters to belong to a labor union ( 24% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-10-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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Reddit is blocked in the PRC as of 2020-10-29 ( 89% confidence; 17 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-10-29; judged right by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Personal] I will read at least 48 books in 2020 Q1-Q3 ( 73% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2020-01-07; known on 2020-10-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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Gladys Berejiklian will still be the Premier of New South Wales on 1 November 2020 ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by sjy on 2020-10-13; known on 2020-11-01; judged right by sjy on 2020-11-01.
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covid Restrictions on air travel will be lifted (as pertains to SJ's MS job) by November 2020 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kjaques on 2020-04-29; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by kjaques on 2020-11-01.
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Politics, Belarus – Lukashenko is not president anymore by end of October 2020 ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NickN on 2020-08-17; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-11-01.
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Politics, US – An executive order is issued requesting the FCC issue a statement or regulation 'clarifying' when takedowns under Section 230 are in good faith, and the FCC does so, prior to the start of November 2020 ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-28; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-11-01.
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Politics, UK – Extinction Rebellion as an organisation is classified as an organised crime or terrorism group on any government list, proscribed, or otherwise legally restricted in a manner not extending to other organisations by end of Oct. ( 13% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-09-06; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-11-01.
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There will be no war involving more than one of the US, Russia, China, or any member of the EU on different sides started in 2017 (Measure: Total eventual casualties above 100) ( 69% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2020-11-01.
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In the next five years, two classes in the Complexity Zoo as of 10 August 2011, will either be shown to be equal or shown to be unequal. ( 64% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-10; known on 2016-08-10; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2020-11-01.
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There will be a Republican primary challenger getting >10% of the primary vote in 2020 (conditional on Trump running) ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2020-11-01.
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SpaceX Crew-1 will dock with the ISS before November 1 2020 ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by finback on 2020-08-28; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2020-11-01.
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Oprah Winfrey will run for president in 2020. ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by iCrown on 2018-02-26; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2020-11-01.
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I will start some internship at the latest in October ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-10-10; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-11-01.
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My poker money will be positive by the end of October ( 69% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by fandangos on 2020-09-22; known on 2020-10-31; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-11-01.
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The US military contains between 1M and 5M people. ( 80% confidence )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-10-30; known on 2020-10-30; judged right by srconstantin on 2020-10-30.