Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 63% | 43% | 49% | 51% | 71% | |
Sample Size | 18 | 16 | 28 | 37 | 96 | 190 | 385 |
Displaying all predictions made by Raahul_Kumar. Filter by:
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Lee Sedol will win match against AlphaGo but lose at least one game ( 35% confidence; 25 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-28; known on 2016-05-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-12.
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Dow Jones Industrial Average will not fall > 10% over the course of 2016. (It will end above 15,434) ( 43% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Temeraire on 2017-01-01.
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Democrats take the Senate in 2016. ( 48% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by lalaithion on 2016-12-01.
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Rubio mops up on Super Tuesday, taking more than 60% of the primaries. ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-01-27; known on 2016-03-03; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-03-03.
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2016 Election is Clinton vs Rubio. ( 12% confidence; 22 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-01-27; known on 2016-10-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-10-01.
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Democrats win House of Representatives in 2016. ( 9% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-01-26; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03.
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1 000 million tons of cement production by 2025. ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-15; known on 2026-01-01.
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Global bear market(90% of stock indices will fall by 20% from 2015 peak) ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-21; known on 2016-12-16; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-11.
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The S&P 500 will go below 1814 by February 1, 2016 ( 33% confidence; 22 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-21; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-02.
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President Obama will be impeached by the House of Representatives. ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Taymon on 2014-11-05; known on 2016-01-20.
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US real GDP growth rate for 2018 will be under 2.0% ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-20; known on 2018-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-27.
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US real GDP growth rate for 2017 will be under 2.2% ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-20; known on 2017-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-27.
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USA real GDP growth rate for 2016 will be under 2.4% ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-20; known on 2016-12-25; judged right by Afforess on 2017-08-07.
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The S&P 500 will go below 1867 on Jan 20th 2016 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-20; known on 2016-01-21; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-20.
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US recession in 2016. ( 48% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-17; known on 2017-01-18; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-18.
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Chinese economy will be larger than the US in the future. After that, India is the next best candidate that could surpass US economy in the next 25 years. After that China and India could be competing for number one — Masoyoshi Son, Softbank ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-17; known on 2040-06-24.
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Price of oil above $60 by the end of this year. http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=price+of+oil ( 13% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-02.
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Price of oil above $20 by the end of this year. http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=price+of+oil ( 87% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2017-01-16; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-01-02.
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Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years. ( 10% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Amazon stock price will reach $700 at some point in 2016. ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by roshni on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by roshni on 2016-05-11.
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USA real GDP growth rate for 2015 will be 2.30%. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-14; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-04-26.
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Brahmos (I) missile will have a successful launch from aircraft in 2016 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-13; known on 2017-01-08; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-08.
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Apple’s stock will be at least $138.52 according to 32 analysts. ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-13; known on 2016-12-25; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-29.
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China will fall into disorder and civil war by the end of 2017 ( 6% confidence; 21 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by chinawillfall on 2016-01-13; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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The Chinese economy will completely collapse by 2017. ( 7% confidence; 20 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by chinawillfall on 2016-01-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Why Apple Will Hit $1,650 by the End of 2015 and earn $610 billion revenue —Eric Jackson, Forbes ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-13; known on 2016-01-14; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-13.
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OPEC basket price on a monthly basis will bottom out at $25 for 2016. ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-12; known on 2016-12-29.
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Mission Indradhanush will provide full immunization coverage in Bharat from 65% in 2014 to at least 90% children in the next 5 years. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-12; known on 2020-12-25.
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Donald Trump will win the first four primaries/caucuses (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada). ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-11; known on 2016-02-25; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2016-02-02.
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Computers will beat the best humans at Go before 2017 ( 54% confidence; 21 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Houshalter on 2016-01-11; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Houshalter on 2016-03-15.
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The Shanghai Composite will fall below 3000 before the end of the week ( 79% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-11; known on 2016-01-16; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-13.
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The VIX index will go above 35 by April 1, 2016 ( 41% confidence; 13 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-11; known on 2016-04-01; judged wrong by equivrel-markets on 2016-04-02.
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The VIX index will go above 30 before February 1, 2016 ( 35% confidence; 16 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-11; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-02.
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The Rigs Will Burn! Rigs have fallen by -1029 in just one year according to Baker Hughes as of August 7.There are only 884 rigs left alive. 1 more year of this, and all the rigs will have burned down. Shout Allahu Akbar as Iran delivers Coup de grâce. ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 16 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-08-19; known on 2016-09-28; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-09-28.
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Bear Market in the USA: Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 to experience at least 20% decline from peak in 2015. ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-09; known on 2016-12-25; judged wrong by mortehu on 2016-12-31.
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The FANG group will have their valuations cut in half from their 2015 peak. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-09; known on 2016-12-25; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-17.
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By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders – sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy… – in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications. ( 34% confidence; 18 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2016-01-08; known on 2026-12-31.
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Donald Trump's pick for VP will be Ted Cruz. (No nomination needed; withdrawn if Trump does not pick.) ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-08; known on 2016-07-18; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-15.
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Oman Crude will trade at an average price of below $30 for the first 6 months of 2016. ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-08; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-02.
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Bitcoin will reach at least 600 USD for at least 24 hours on at least 2 major exchanges at some point in 2016 ( 47% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Afforess on 2016-01-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by mortehu on 2016-06-25.
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China's Shanghai Composite Index will be down 33+% YTD ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2016-01-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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Bharat real gdp growth rate at 8 % in 2017 ( 93% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-07; known on 2017-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-27.
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Bharat real gdp growth rate at 7.8 % in 2016 ( 93% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-07; known on 2016-12-25; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-06.
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100% IPV6 deployment by 2020. ( 27% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-07; known on 2020-12-25; judged wrong by Medea on 2021-01-08.
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No 3rd party verification for North Korea's claim to have tested a thermonuclear weapon. ( 74% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-06; known on 2016-12-16; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-08.
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The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding citizenship from a country not already listed, and/or all other catchall outcomes. ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.
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The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding UK citizenship. ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.
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The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding French citizenship. ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.
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The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding German citizenship. ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.
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The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Russian citizenship. ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.
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The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Pakistani citizenship. ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.
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The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Iranian citizenship. ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.
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The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Brazilian citizenship. ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.
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The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship. ( 46% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.
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USA will default on its debt. ( 19% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-06; known on 2023-12-25.
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France will default on its debt. ( 14% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-06; known on 2017-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-27.
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UK will default on its debt. ( 14% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-06; known on 2017-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-27.
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“I’d be shocked if China is currently growing at a rate above, say, 4%” —Anne Stevenson-Yang research director of J Capital ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-06; known on 2016-01-30; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-19.
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Australia Federally recognises same-sex marriage on or before 1 January 2017. ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-06.
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Zhongguo will ≥ 6.5% real GDP growth rate from 2015-2020. ( 95% confidence; 6 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-04; known on 2020-12-25; judged wrong by nigr on 2020-12-19.
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Star Wars: The Force Awakens will gross above 2.8 Billion USD globally ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-04; known on 2016-06-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-07-06.
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Center for International Development at Harvard University predicts 3.7% GDP growth rate for South Africa in 2015- 2024. ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-04; known on 2024-12-25.
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Center for International Development at Harvard University predicts 1.96% GDP growth rate for Rossiya(Росси́я) in 2015- 2024. ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-04; known on 2024-12-25.
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Center for International Development at Harvard University predicts 4.75% GDP growth rate for Việt Nam in 2015- 2024. ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-04; known on 2024-12-25.
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Center for International Development at Harvard University predicts 4.82% GDP growth rate for Indonesia in 2015- 2024. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-04; known on 2024-12-25.
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Center for International Development at Harvard University predicts 3.34% GDP growth rate for Brasil in 2015- 2024. ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-04; known on 2024-12-16.
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Center for International Development at Harvard University predicts 4.28% GDP growth rate for Zhongguo for 2015- 2024. ( 5% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-04; known on 2024-12-16.
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Center for International Development at Harvard University predicts 6.98% GDP growth rate for Bharat for 2015- 2024. ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-04; known on 2024-12-25.
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I will write 3,000+ lines of Rust in 2016 ( 47% confidence; 6 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-31.
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Indonesia to recognize same sex marriage before January 1, 2017 ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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Bharat will export USD $1 trillion worth of merchandise in 2020. ( 55% confidence; 6 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-14; known on 2020-01-02; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-14.
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Bharat will reach 1.4 billion mobile connections by 2020, when mobile penetration will reach 100 per cent. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-15; known on 2020-12-25.
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Apple's stock price will go above $120 before January 1, 2017. ( 56% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02; known on 2017-01-02; judged wrong by mortehu on 2016-12-30.
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Apple's stock price will go above $110 before February 1, 2016 ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02; known on 2016-02-02; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-02.
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Facebook's stock price will go above $120 before January 1, 2017 ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by mortehu on 2016-04-28.
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Brazil's GDP will be above its 2014 level in 2018. ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.
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2016 will be the hottest year ever recorded (since historical records began) ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-02; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-01-18.
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Ebola epidemic has ended. ( 93% confidence; 16 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-01-14; judged right by ioannes on 2016-01-14.
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Bharat will Have 500 Million Internet Users By 2017 —Internet and Mobile Association of India (IAMAI) and KPMG ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-19; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2017-11-05.
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Donald Trump to be the next US President. ( 26% confidence; 73 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-30; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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Iraqi government will liberate Mosul, their most important stronghold from Islamic State. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-29; known on 2017-12-16; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-16.
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Magnesium infused with silicon carbide nanoparticles will be used as major structural component for cars by 2025. ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-26; known on 2025-01-01.
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The Yemen civil war will be won by the Revolutionary Committee, and the Saudi-led Coalition(US,UK) will be defeated. ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-26; known on 2024-12-25.
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Iraqi government will liberate Ramadi from Islamic State. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-26; known on 2016-01-12; judged right by kuudes on 2015-12-28.
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By the end of 2020, more than half of the babies born that year are going to be genomically sequenced as soon as they're born. ( 4% confidence; 10 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-25; known on 2024-01-01.
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75% of the population within Syria's currently recognized borders will be under the direct or indirect control of a single goverment by 2017. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-12-24; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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The next candidate to drop out of the Republican primary will be one of Santorum, Gilmore, Pataki, or Huckabee. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-22; known on 2016-01-25; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-30.
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By 2046 0% children under 5 will be underweight globally. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-21; known on 2046-12-25.
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By 2038 less than 3.6% children under 5 will be underweight globally. ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-21; known on 2038-12-25.
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By 2050 stunting will be at 0% globally. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-21; known on 2050-12-25.
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By 2038 stunting for under 5 children will be under 7.8% globally. ( 100% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-21; known on 2038-12-25.
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Asia-Pacific surpassed North America with the largest HNWI population (4.69 million versus 4.68 million) and is expected to overtake North America's leading $16.2 trillion in HNWI wealth by the end of the year. Asia-Pacific Wealth Report 2015 (APWR) ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-12-26; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-22.
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Bharat will be the 2nd largest smartphone market globally by 2017 — Strategy Analytics, IDC. ( 100% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-19; known on 2017-12-25; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-02.
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Bharat's National Highways to reach 150 000km in length from 100 000km today. ( 90% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-19; known on 2016-12-25.
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150 000 km of National Highways by year end -Road Transport and Highways Minister Nitin Gadkari ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-16; known on 2016-06-25; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-19.
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Bharat's defence exports will at least double to Rs1200 Crore. ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-17; known on 2016-03-31; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-29.
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Bharat will pass the USA in steel production in 2015(full calendar year). In 2014 USA was ahead. Steel is an excellent proxy for GDP growth, along with cement and electricity. Data Source: World Steel Association. ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-03-25; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-25.
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Brasil will be ranked at least 8th in the medal tally table, with 27 medals overall. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-18; known on 2016-08-22; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-08-22.
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Rossiya will be ranked 3rd in the medal tally for Rio Olympics. ( 54% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-18; known on 2016-08-22; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-08-22.
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Zhongguo will top the Rio Olympics overall and gold medal tally. ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-18; known on 2016-08-22; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-08-22.