Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 22% | 60% | 50% | 89% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 2 | 9 | 10 | 16 | 9 | 1 | 47 |
Displaying all predictions made by Adam. Filter by:
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The NDE out of body consciousness experiment by Dr Parnia will be entirely negative ( 70% confidence; 10 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Adam on 2008-09-22; known on 2013-04-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-11-14.
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I will be in england before podshifter gets restyled. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam on 2009-02-19; known on 2009-04-19; judged right by Matt on 2009-04-30.
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my visa will arive ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Adam on 2009-02-19; known on 2009-03-01; judged wrong by Adam on 2009-03-01.
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Trike IT will have migrated to being a python shop ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Adam on 2009-02-12; known on 2012-02-12; judged wrong by Matt on 2012-04-05.
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Google will buy Twitter by 2010 ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Glenn on 2008-07-16; known on 2010-01-01; judged wrong by thephilosiraptor on 2010-01-01.
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the aws-s3 refactor of podshifter will successfully upload the converted mp3 to s3 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam on 2008-11-12; known on 2008-11-12; judged right by Adam on 2008-11-12.
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Implement conditional get/caching of processed feed in pod shifter by 12pm thursday ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam on 2008-11-05; known on 2008-11-06; judged wrong by Glenn on 2008-11-06.
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Removing GA, readding Prototype. Preview will work. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Glenn on 2008-10-23; known on 2008-10-24; judged right by Glenn on 2008-10-24.
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removing prototype.js will make preview work on dentalcorp ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2008-10-23; known on 2008-10-23; judged right by Glenn on 2008-10-23.
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There will be a show stopping bug in my backup rake task ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam on 2008-10-08; known on 2008-10-08; judged wrong by Adam on 2008-10-08.
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rails partial name scheme for namespaced models will be views/namespace/classname/_classname ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Adam on 2008-09-26; known on 2008-09-26; judged right by Adam on 2008-09-29.
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notification of comments and wagers will inform me ( 84% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Adam on 2008-09-22; known on 2008-09-22; judged right by Adam on 2008-09-22.
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private predictions will be secret ( 91% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Adam on 2008-09-19; known on 2008-09-19; judged right by Adam on 2008-09-19.
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this prediction will be worthless ( 99% confidence )
Created by Adam on 2008-09-17; known on 2008-09-17.
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Glenn's fixes will have worked ( 87% confidence )
Created by Adam on 2008-09-16; known on 2008-09-16; judged right by Adam on 2008-09-16.
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I won't be able to dupe this time ( 95% confidence )
Created by Adam on 2008-09-05; known on 2008-09-05; judged right by Adam on 2008-09-05.
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I won't be able to double post this prediction ( 95% confidence )
Created by Adam on 2008-09-05; known on 2008-09-05; judged wrong by Adam on 2008-09-05.
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Anonymous users will take Gerrit more than 4 hours ( 72% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-05; known on 2008-09-19; judged right by Glenn on 2009-09-28.
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Anonymous users will take Gerrit more than 8 hours ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-05; known on 2008-09-19; judged right by Glenn on 2009-09-28.
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tomorrow morning for this prediction will be in EST (AU) ( 90% confidence )
Created by Adam on 2008-09-05; known on 2008-09-05; judged right by Adam on 2008-09-05.
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Tomorrow morning for this prediction will be in UTC ( 90% confidence )
Created by Adam on 2008-09-05; known on 2008-09-06; judged right by Adam on 2008-09-05.
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After spending an hour on the phone to the UK I will be able to access my account ( 20% confidence )
Created by Adam on 2008-09-04; known on 2008-09-04; judged right by Adam on 2008-09-04.
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The circles drawn by the google scatter plot are not quite accurate. the 48% points are above the 50 line ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Adam on 2008-09-04; known on 2008-09-05; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-05.
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Coffee machine drain hole is 9mm wide ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam on 2008-08-26; known on 2008-08-26; judged right by Adam on 2008-08-26.
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we will need pagination on the front page ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam on 2008-07-09; known on 2008-08-09; judged wrong on 2008-08-16.
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austhink credit credit and paypal payment will be published live ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2008-07-09; known on 2008-08-09; judged wrong on 2008-08-16.
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Using ✔ and ✘ on the main page (though not the user page) is elitist behaviour that will be destroyed within a week. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2008-08-02; known on 2008-08-09; judged wrong on 2008-08-14.
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The CrmHub api will allow the license key to be checked with only license key as input ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Adam on 2008-08-11; known on 2008-08-12; judged wrong on 2008-08-11.
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The CrmHub api will allow all license keys to be retreived using an email address ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Adam on 2008-08-11; known on 2008-08-12; judged wrong on 2008-08-11.
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Sigur Rós will be awesome but the sound will suck ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Adam on 2008-08-01; known on 2008-08-01; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.
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Glenn will get bored of posting bogus predictions in 2 weeks ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Adam on 2008-07-16; known on 2008-07-30; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.
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we will finish our end of austhink (sans non-bogus gateways) ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Glenn on 2008-07-16; known on 2008-07-17; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.
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Authorize.Net will be the first gateway to return my enquiry with any useful information ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam on 2008-07-16; known on 2008-07-21; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.
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The year 2038 problem will be more interesting than y2k ( 39% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Adam on 2008-07-18; known on 2038-07-18; judged unknown by anonym on 2009-11-07.
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Generation Kill won't have quite the same depth of story as The Wire ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Adam on 2008-07-15; known on 2008-08-30; judged right by Adam on 2008-08-27.
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first test paypal payment through austhink refactor will fail with an mildly new error message ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam on 2008-07-15; known on 2008-07-15; judged right on 2008-08-01.
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My account details from HSBC will arrive before the end of the week ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam on 2008-07-15; known on 2008-07-19; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.
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pbook will remember my name after this prediction ( 98% confidence )
Created by Adam on 2008-06-26; known on 2008-06-26; judged right on 2008-08-01.
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We will have validation of result dates ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam on 2008-06-20; known on 2008-06-20; judged right on 2008-08-01.
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pbook will not be released to the web by xmas 08 ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Trainor on 2008-06-20; known on 2008-12-30; judged right by Matt on 2009-01-14.
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Matt won't use his own website for the next 3 days ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam on 2008-07-13; known on 2008-07-16; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.
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austhink payment will be done by end of 4 day week ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Adam on 2008-07-07; known on 2008-07-11; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.
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austhink payment will be done by wednesday ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Adam on 2008-07-07; known on 2008-07-09; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.
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Our deploy of shared predictions will happen without fault ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam on 2008-07-04; known on 2008-07-04; judged right on 2008-08-01.
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The world will not end when the LHC is activated ( 99% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Glenn on 2008-07-04; known on 2008-07-08; judged right on 2008-08-01.
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Obama will be the next US president. ( 74% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Lina on 2008-06-29; known on 2008-11-08; judged right by Glenn on 2008-11-05.
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pbook will deal with input like ßéàüçñåπæœ ( 85% confidence )
Created by Adam on 2008-06-27; known on 2008-06-27; judged right on 2008-08-01.