Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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print lu ( 9% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known on 2017-12-05; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05.
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print j/a 2 ( 7% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known on 2017-12-05; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05.
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print j/a ( 76% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known on 2017-12-05; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05.
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print la ( 93% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known on 2017-12-05; judged right by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05.
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party j ( 12% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known on 2017-12-05; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05.
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party c ( 68% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known on 2017-12-05; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05.
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party A ( 64% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known on 2017-12-05; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05.
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party l ( 91% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known on 2017-12-05; judged right by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05.
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get mail from pa ( 57% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known on 2017-12-05; judged right by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05.
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et gives example of changing mind ( 18% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known on 2017-12-05; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05.
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C will get together with L by next new year. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2015-07-20; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05.
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The answer is “semantics” ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-12-04; known on 2017-12-04; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2017-12-04.
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Amazon Web Services will introduce an m4 (or later generation “m” type instance) with more RAM and cores than its current biggest m4 machine, m4.16xlarge, before January 1, 2018. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-12-02.
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More than 1,000 US troops deployed in North Korea by December 2017 ( 9% confidence; 20 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-05-14; known on 2017-12-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-12-01.
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Trump approval rating above 40% (according to 538 all-polls) ( 14% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-10-02; known on 2017-12-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-12-01.
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Trump approval rating below 38% (according to 538 all-polls) ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-10-02; known on 2017-12-01; judged wrong by jamesrom on 2018-10-22.
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No areas of the US Drought Monitor – California map (http://www.californiadrought.org/drought/current-conditions/) are colored “Extreme Drought” by December 1 2017 ( 20% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-13; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by ioannes on 2017-12-01.
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Kendrick's HUMBLE. youtube video has >1 billion views by December 1, 2017 ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-12-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-12-01.
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Facebook will match 100% of my donations made between the hours of 8:00 AM EST and 8:10 AM EST on #GivingTuesday ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-11-24; known on 2018-11-29; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2017-12-01.
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Trump's Gallup approval be 39% or higher for August 1 – 3 (2017) ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by leo_gri on 2017-08-02; known on 2017-08-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-30.
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Angela Merkel bleibt bis zur nächsten regulären Bundestagswahl 2017 im Amt ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Shevek on 2016-02-05; known on 2017-11-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-30.
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Bharat's ranking in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business report would be at least 105, up from 130 in 2016. ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-28; known on 2017-11-30; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-30.
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There are mechanics in Las Vegas for electric cars ( 99% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-11-30; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2017-11-30.
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CarMax extended warranty doesn’t cover battery for electric cars ( 90% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-11-30; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2017-11-30.
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CarMax doesn’t negotiate is a better price ( 90% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-11-30; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2017-11-30.
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Bitcoin will reach USD 10k before 31/12/2017 ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Leohmarruda on 2017-11-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Athrithalix on 2017-11-29.
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North Korea will launch (or attempt to launch) a ballistic missile (any range) between 24th Sept 2017 and before the end of 2017 ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-24; known on 2018-01-05; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-11-29.
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Bitcoin: trades above 10k USD at GDAX at some point before the end of the year. ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-10-20; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-11-29.
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Japan to obtain >30% of its power from nuclear in 2016. ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-01-18; known on 2017-02-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-11-26.
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Politics, Lebanon – Saad Hariri returns to Lebanon by the end of 2017-11-25. ( 45% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-11-11; known on 2017-11-26; judged right by kuudes on 2017-11-26.
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Bitcoin: trades above 9k USD at GDAX at some point before the end of the year. ( 38% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-10-20; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-11-26.
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Justin Bieber's “Sorry” will reach 3 billion views on YouTube before Psy's “Gangnam Style” will. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2018-06-30; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-11-26.
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Kahneman (or whoever controls his email) will give an actual response to the question I sent him via an email ( 50% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2017-11-25; known on 2017-12-26; judged right by crabman on 2017-11-25.
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Salted__²ð~½)©çï>Û£ÆB˜¢ª©9ÝmàIŒ~gþ®ëÎÌakðÄä×h…Ho&rÕ4¤@^K@N›æJË >2gà,ai<ùå, ǬèÞ†ŸVÖß ç1ûǶ£7Ó›TiQÐèàc}^¬=8“Dò.u2 ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Stillvallight on 2016-11-20; known on 2017-11-20; judged wrong by AP107138 on 2017-11-25.
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[Crisis in Zimbabwe] Generals back down; Mugabe is freed and goes back to de facto ruling the country. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-16; known on 2017-12-17; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-24.
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[This person will at some point be de jure president of Zimbabwe:] Emmerson Mnangagwa ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-24.
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Taylor Swift's Look What You Made Me Do will reach 1 billion views on YouTube in fewer days than Adele's Hello. ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-09-08; known on 2018-02-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-11-24.
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Despacito will reach 4 billion YouTube video views on or before January 1, 2018, and will be the fastest song to have ever reached 4 billion views at the time it reaches that milestone. ( 88% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-30; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-11-23.
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Re: Peace Prize. Erdogan will not be so honoured. ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2017-11-21.
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Merkel will win the Nobel Peace Prize, with Abdullah II of Jordan and others. ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by technicalities on 2017-11-21.
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“At least one Asian movie will exceed $400 mn in worldwide box office gross before the end of the decade.” —blogospheroid ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-24; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-11-21.
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I will have dropped piano by this date ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-10-11; known on 2017-11-11; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-11-20.
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Less than 300 people will die of Ebola within the fifty United States by January 1, 2018 —Bryan Caplan ( 88% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2014-10-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by bendini on 2017-11-20.
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The year end ATP number one for 2017 will be Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal ( 100% confidence )
Created by gurgus on 2017-08-09; known on 2017-11-19; judged right by gurgus on 2017-11-20.
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Rafael Nadal will be the year end number one in 2017 ( 66% confidence )
Created by gurgus on 2017-08-09; known on 2017-11-19; judged right by gurgus on 2017-11-20.
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Bitcoin: trades above 8k USD at GDAX at some point before the end of the year. ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-10-20; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-11-19.
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Banco Central do Brasil (BACEN) – Brasil's 2016 real economic growth rate will be -2.99%. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-30; known on 2017-01-30; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-16.
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Kim Jong Un is Supreme Leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea on November 15, 2017 ( 92% confidence; 22 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-27; known on 2017-11-16; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-11-16.
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Assuming the postal vote happens, the majority of the Australian public who vote will vote against gay marriage in the upcoming postal vote ( 41% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gurgus on 2017-08-09; known on 2017-11-26; judged wrong by sjy on 2017-11-14.
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Ray shot Neal Gamby (Vice Principals Season 2) ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by elephantower on 2017-10-02; known on 2017-12-12; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-11-13.