Upcoming Predictions
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Someone will get a 500$ award from Chris Hallquist for convincing him to cancel his cryonics submission ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by itaibn on 2014-01-11; known on 2040-01-01.
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Most roads in the USA will not use speed limit units of miles per hour on January 1st 2040. ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-24; known on 2040-01-01.
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Clathrate gun fires ( rapid ( 1 C / year or more ) increase in global mean temp for 5 years attributed to clathrate methane deposit release) ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-13; known on 2040-01-01.
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EU to dissolve by 2040. ( 39% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-25; known on 2040-01-01.
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GRRM dies before finishing A Song of Ice and Fire ( 49% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2040-01-01.
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There will be a crocs movie before 2040. ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-08-29; known on 2040-01-01.
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By 2040, no other country will have both more active nuclear warheads and higher GDP than the United States. ( 64% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-10-02; known on 2040-01-01.
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The petrodollar will be dismantled by 2040. ( 51% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-01-19; known on 2040-01-01.
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Yoshua Bengio to eventually cash out into private industry (at least once) ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2040-01-01.
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Bioviva's Liz Parrish to have demonstrated convincing evidence of age reversal with gene therapy ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2040-01-01.
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World governments will ban chemical/Biological/Nuclear weapons after The Third World War (WW III) and make it a penalty of death to all who develop such weapons … anywhere … on Earth. ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2040-01-16.
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Nuclear war in 25 years. ( 10% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by argothiel on 2015-03-04; known on 2040-03-16.
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People will use Wine (the windows non-emulator) on Windows to play older games within 20 years ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-04-20; known on 2040-04-20.
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Chinese economy will be larger than the US in the future. After that, India is the next best candidate that could surpass US economy in the next 25 years. After that China and India could be competing for number one — Masoyoshi Son, Softbank ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-17; known on 2040-06-24.
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Lindsay Lohan will die before 50 ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jande417 on 2010-08-19; known on 2040-08-19.
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Cognitive Implants will be available for consumer use by 2040. ( 62% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2040-11-17.
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Terrorism in the Middle East Will Decline By Half By 2040. ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-08-08; known on 2040-12-16.
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Worldwide capacity of rooftop, building-integrated and local PV soar from 104GW in 2014 to nearly 1.8TW in 2040, a 17-fold increase. ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-06; known on 2040-12-25.
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56% share of world generation for zero carbon energy sources(renewables+nuclear) by 2040. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-06; known on 2040-12-25.
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European Union long term growth rate will average 1.4% real gdp annually. ( 100% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-19; known on 2040-12-25.
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If a second civil war starts/continues in the USA, and Republicans and Democrats are opposing belligerents, out of possibly more belligerents, Australia will fight on the side of Republicans. ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by najdorf on 2020-09-10; known on 2040-12-31.
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They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040 ( 55% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-05; known on 2040-12-31.
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China will win more gold medals than India in 2040 ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-15; known on 2040-12-31.
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Fareed Zakaria: Indonesia will win more gold medals than Brazil in 2040 ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-15; known on 2040-12-31.
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Fareed Zakaria: US will be #1 in gold medals in 2040 ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-15; known on 2040-12-31.
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Universal literacy worldwide by 2040 for 15-24 year olds. ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-09; known on 2040-12-31.
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Linux most widely used operating system for personal desktop and laptop computers in the world by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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The Arab-Israeli conflict is not over by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 72% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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By 2040 the US remains the world's strongest economic power, as measured by GDP. — Axel Boldt ( 33% confidence; 9 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 9% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Alcor's Patient Trust Fund will be solvent in 2041. ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2041-01-01.
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The majority of Alcor cryopreservations as of 2011 will have maintained preservation continuity as of 2041. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2041-01-01.
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[Humans will understand human-level intelligence… (Richard Sutton: The Future of Artificial Intelligence Belongs to Search and Learning)] never ( 10% confidence )
Created by YuxiLiu on 2022-10-26; known on 2041-01-01.
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[Humans will understand human-level intelligence… (Richard Sutton: The Future of Artificial Intelligence Belongs to Search and Learning)] by 2030 ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by YuxiLiu on 2022-10-26; known on 2041-01-01.
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[Humans will understand human-level intelligence… (Richard Sutton: The Future of Artificial Intelligence Belongs to Search and Learning)] after 2040 ( 15% confidence )
Created by YuxiLiu on 2022-10-26; known on 2041-01-01.
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Twitter to finally allow ppl to autoorganize tweets into folders by 2040 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-15; known on 2041-01-01.
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'2040 The “Universal Replicator,” based on nanotechnology, is perfected: any object, however complex, can be created – given the necessary raw materials. Diamonds or gourmet meals can, literally, be made from dirt.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2041-01-01.
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Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 65% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Commercial fusion reactors by end of 2040. ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-22; known on 2041-01-01.
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Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 68% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 32% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 69% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 31% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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A “theory of everything” combining quantum mechanics and general relativity found by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Attention Deficit Disorder more prevalent in hacker community(based on multiple, broad criteria) than baseline at a statistically significant level (at least in 2010s) ( 63% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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'Global average temperatures have risen by 2°C' ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-07; known on 2041-01-01.
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P!=NP, and proven by 2040 —Ken ( 44% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2041-01-01.
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A professional athlete will not voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041. ( 38% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-11; known on 2041-01-01.
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Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen. ( 47% confidence; 23 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-03; known on 2041-01-01.
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[Humans will understand human-level intelligence… (Richard Sutton: The Future of Artificial Intelligence Belongs to Search and Learning)] by 2040 ( 50% confidence )
Created by YuxiLiu on 2022-10-26; known on 2041-01-01.