Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 58% | 64% | 77% | 85% | 94% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 24 | 33 | 44 | 41 | 53 | 2 | 197 |
Displaying all predictions made by John Smith. Filter by:
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My guess was correct. ( 90% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2013-11-28; known on 2013-11-28; judged right by John Smith on 2013-11-28.
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I will not masturbate from now until January 1, 2015. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by John Smith on 2013-11-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by John Smith on 2013-11-30.
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I will not look at porn from now until January 1, 2015. ( 99% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by John Smith on 2013-11-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by John Smith on 2013-11-30.
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3 times the square root of 2 exceeds 4. ( 99% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by John Smith on 2013-11-26; known on 2013-11-26; judged right by John Smith on 2013-11-26.
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I will get a 100 on algorithms homework 8. ( 75% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2013-11-22; known on 2013-12-05; judged right by John Smith on 2013-12-05.
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I will get at least a 90 on algorithms homework 8. ( 90% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2013-11-22; known on 2013-12-05; judged right by John Smith on 2013-12-05.
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Miami will beat Carolina (NFL) today. ( 55% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2013-11-24; known on 2013-11-24; judged wrong by John Smith on 2013-11-24.
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Bitcoin price on 2014-01-01: < 50$ (mtgox prices) ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ArisKatsaris on 2013-12-31.
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Barack Obama to attempt to run for a third term as President (either through Constitutional amendment or other method). ( 0% confidence; 41 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-24; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Our professor will reveal the homework answer before it is due. ( 0% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2013-11-22; known on 2013-11-23; judged wrong by John Smith on 2013-11-22.
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LW Survey calibration answer. ( 20% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2013-11-22; known on 2013-11-22; judged wrong by John Smith on 2013-11-22.
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I will get a 100 on algorithms homework 8. ( 90% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2013-11-22; known on 2013-11-26.
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“Story of My Life” by One Direction will be in the top 3 tracks for the United States on Spotify on or before January 17, 2014. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by John Smith on 2013-11-17; known on 2014-01-18; judged right by John Smith on 2013-12-12.
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Auburn will win today's football game against Georgia. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by John Smith on 2013-11-17; known on 2013-11-18; judged right by John Smith on 2013-11-17.
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Auburn will complete a certain 3rd down in today's football game. ( 66% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2013-11-17; known on 2013-11-17; judged wrong by John Smith on 2013-11-17.
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Florida State will not try a fake punt (on a specific play). ( 99% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2013-11-16; known on 2013-11-16; judged right by John Smith on 2013-11-16.
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Florida State will exceed 60 points in today's football game. ( 75% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2013-11-16; known on 2013-11-17; judged wrong by John Smith on 2013-11-17.
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Bitcoin >$9000 by February 2014. ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-15; known on 2014-02-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-01.
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The Bills will score a touchdown on a certain drive today. ( 33% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2013-11-10; known on 2013-11-10; judged wrong by John Smith on 2013-11-10.
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The first typo is correct. ( 80% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2013-11-09; known on 2013-11-12; judged right by John Smith on 2013-11-10.
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I will get more than 85 points on algorithms HW7. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by John Smith on 2013-11-09; known on 2013-11-30; judged wrong by John Smith on 2013-11-19.
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I will get exactly 85 points on HW7 for algorithms. ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by John Smith on 2013-11-09; known on 2013-11-30; judged wrong by John Smith on 2013-11-19.
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98b6e645ddd64fd3cefb3f34de1c4b6321c690f6adb394aad68bde3511d6a5f2367a88fe91ca2b44b396c0865a98015d58a1fa4a761a88c92fad7a12b3e599d5 ( 95% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by John Smith on 2013-11-08; known on 2013-11-10; judged right by John Smith on 2013-11-09.
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The Gladwell talk is in Alumni Arena. ( 80% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2013-11-06; known on 2013-11-06; judged right by John Smith on 2013-11-06.
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43a4c3b7d0a0654e1919ad6e7cbfa6f8d41bcce8f1320fbe511b6d7c38609ce5a2d39328e02e9777b339152987ea02b3f8adb57d84377fa7ccb708658b7d2edc ( 74% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-03; known on 2014-06-03; judged right by gwern on 2014-06-03.
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“Cups” was named so because it uses cups as instruments. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by John Smith on 2013-11-03; known on 2013-11-03; judged right by John Smith on 2013-11-03.
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BoB: MtGox will support Litecoin on its exchange by year end 2013. ( 20% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by tedks on 2013-11-01; known on 2014-01-02; judged wrong by nshepperd on 2014-01-03.
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[tredactedw] will win the pie-eating contest. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by John Smith on 2013-11-01; known on 2013-11-01; judged wrong by John Smith on 2013-11-01.
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The “unfortunate” comment was made by [redacted]. ( 70% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2013-10-30; known on 2013-10-31; judged right by John Smith on 2013-10-30.
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My team will win IEEEXtreme. ( 0% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2013-10-26; known on 2013-11-02; judged wrong by John Smith on 2013-10-30.
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I will get some unexpected points on Problem 2 of 10-11 algorithms homework. ( 33% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2013-10-11; known on 2013-11-01; judged right by John Smith on 2013-10-30.
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My friend added me on Facebook. ( 33% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2013-10-25; known on 2013-10-25; judged right by John Smith on 2013-10-25.
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I will not live at home next year. ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by John Smith on 2013-10-23; known on 2014-09-01; judged wrong by John Smith on 2014-09-01.
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Over 95% percent of former student athletes have made a donation to the UB annual fund. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by John Smith on 2013-10-23; known on 2013-10-23; judged wrong by John Smith on 2013-10-23.
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The algorithm I specified for Question 2c on the midterm was incorrect. ( 75% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2013-10-23; known on 2013-11-06; judged right by John Smith on 2013-10-23.
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The bridge to Goat Island will be open. ( 50% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2013-10-23; known on 2013-10-23; judged right by John Smith on 2013-10-23.
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Our landline phone will be fixed when we check. ( 80% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2013-10-23; known on 2013-10-23; judged right by John Smith on 2013-10-23.
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The Niagara Falls will be lit up when we visit. ( 95% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2013-10-23; known on 2013-10-23; judged right by John Smith on 2013-10-23.
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I will attempt the Uberman sleep schedule over winter break 2013-14 and last at least 7 days (take 42 naps on the schedule without other sleep, and wake up from the 42nd nap on time). ( 19% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by John Smith on 2013-10-22; known on 2014-01-26; judged wrong by John Smith on 2014-01-26.
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I will not attempt the Uberman sleep schedule over winter break 2013-14. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by John Smith on 2013-10-22; known on 2014-01-26; judged right by John Smith on 2014-01-26.
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I will attempt the Uberman sleep schedule over winter break 2013-14. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by John Smith on 2013-10-22; known on 2014-01-26.
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I will get a ticket to the Hillary Clinton event on Wednesday. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by John Smith on 2013-10-21; known on 2013-10-21; judged right by John Smith on 2013-10-21.
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I will get an A- in algorithms. ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by John Smith on 2013-10-20; known on 2013-12-25; judged wrong by John Smith on 2013-12-16.
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The price of Bitcoin will be <=$50 before 20 December 2013. ( 6% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-19; known on 2013-12-20; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-20.
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I will get a homework average of at least 95% for the whole semester for algorithms. ( 69% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2013-10-16; known on 2013-12-25; judged right by John Smith on 2013-12-13.
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I will get a homework average of at least 92.5% for the whole semester for algorithms. ( 73% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2013-10-16; known on 2013-12-25; judged right by John Smith on 2013-12-13.
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I will get at least 89% on the algorithms final. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by John Smith on 2013-10-16; known on 2013-12-25; judged right by John Smith on 2013-12-16.
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I will get at least 54 points on Part II of the algorithms midterm. ( 69% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by John Smith on 2013-10-16; known on 2013-11-06; judged wrong by John Smith on 2013-10-18.
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I got more than 29 points on Part I of my algorithms midterm. ( 43% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2013-10-16; known on 2013-11-06; judged right by John Smith on 2013-11-03.
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I got less than 29 points on Part I of my algorithms midterm. ( 13% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2013-10-16; known on 2013-11-06; judged wrong by John Smith on 2013-11-03.
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The Hawaiian punch will be gone from the fridge. ( 80% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2013-10-15; known on 2013-10-15; judged right by John Smith on 2013-10-15.
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There won't be any questions involving little-omega or little-o notation on the algorithms midterm this week. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by John Smith on 2013-10-15; known on 2013-10-19; judged right by John Smith on 2013-10-18.
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My friend will get the right answer in algorithms class on 10/11/2013. ( 80% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2013-10-11; known on 2013-10-11; judged right by John Smith on 2013-10-11.
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[redactedal] was the one calling my house this morning. ( 70% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2013-10-11; known on 2013-10-11; judged wrong by John Smith on 2013-10-11.
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[mredactedw] will get an A in algorithms this semester. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by John Smith on 2013-10-11; known on 2013-12-25; judged right by John Smith on 2013-12-16.
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I will get an A in algorithms this semester. ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by John Smith on 2013-10-11; known on 2013-12-25; judged right by John Smith on 2013-12-16.
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Created by John Smith on 2013-10-10; known on 2014-04-10; judged wrong by John Smith on 2014-04-10.
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I will receive at least 50 special comments on my special Facebook status before I go to bed tomorrow. ( 20% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2013-10-10; known on 2013-10-12; judged wrong by John Smith on 2013-10-11.
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I will already have a comment on my special Facebook status when I log on now. ( 60% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2013-10-10; known on 2013-10-10; judged right by John Smith on 2013-10-10.
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I will be asked out by a girl before the end of the Spring 2014 semester. ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by John Smith on 2013-10-09; known on 2014-05-10; judged wrong by John Smith on 2014-05-10.
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I will attend Kent Hack Enough 2013. ( 25% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2013-10-09; known on 2013-10-18; judged wrong by John Smith on 2013-10-11.
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The Buffalo Bills will make the playoffs during the 2013-2014 NFL season. ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by John Smith on 2013-10-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by John Smith on 2013-12-16.
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Someone I was just sitting with who left will be in another room I'm about to go visit. ( 5% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2013-10-02; known on 2013-10-02; judged wrong by John Smith on 2013-10-02.
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Government shutdown to end by October 25 ( 71% confidence; 21 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-10-01; known on 2013-10-25; judged right by nshepperd on 2013-10-17.
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The New England Patriots will win their September 29, 2013 game against the Atlanta Falcons. ( 80% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2013-09-30; known on 2013-09-30; judged right by John Smith on 2013-09-30.
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The Buffalo Bills will win their September 29, 2013 game against the Baltimore Ravens. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by John Smith on 2013-09-29; known on 2013-09-29; judged right by John Smith on 2013-09-29.
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“I make the falsifiable prediction that during Pope Francis's tenure the Catholic Church will shrink, its proportional membership will diminish and its contributions per member will drop.” — EY (on Facebook) ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-09-20; known on 2023-09-20.
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No one will win Sam Harris's prize for convincing him that his book is wrong ( 87% confidence; 19 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Omid on 2013-09-01; known on 2014-11-01; judged right by Matt2000 on 2014-11-01.
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By the end of 2013, the government will have never minted a trillion dollar coin. ( 94% confidence; 27 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.