Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 51% | 60% | 66% | 81% | 92% | 97% | |
Sample Size | 137 | 234 | 231 | 257 | 634 | 119 | 1612 |
Displaying all predictions made by PseudonymousUser. Filter by:
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On 31 Dec 2011, there will be no generally available consumer-level PC, as delivered from the factory, that has a clock speed of more than 5 GHz. ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Richard_Kennaway on 2011-01-02; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-14.
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Borders will merge, be bought, or file for bankruptcy by 2013. ( 79% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2013-01-11; judged right by gwern on 2011-02-17.
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No Facebook IPO in 2011 —Ben Parr ( 89% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.
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Wikileaks will release files from a major American bank in 2011 ( 44% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.
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'Iran will test a nuclear weapon.' in 2011 —Capitol Commentary ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.
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By December 2011 at least one of Ireland, Portugal, Spain, or Italy will leave the Euro —Capitol Commentary ( 19% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-01.
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'Apple gives away [Mac OS X] Lion for free or less than $30' —Brian Breslin ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-29; known on 2011-07-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-06-11.
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'Google will buy Twitter' in 2011 —Chris O'Brien ( 18% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.
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'The graphics card market collapses due to them overshooting consumer demand* and possibly being subsumed by new CPUs.' by 2020 —Shane Legg ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022 ( 6% confidence; 20 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by raavin on 2010-11-18; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-12-31.
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Apple will release their desktop OS as software only before 2015 ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by raavin on 2010-11-18; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by btrettel on 2015-06-11.
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Over the next year or two, Apple will bring Cocoa development to the Windows desktop via an App Store that sells titles to a broad audience — Daniel Eran Dilger http://bit.ly/aXTPXK ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-11-15; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.
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Rotating computer hard drives are no longer used. —Ray Kurzweil ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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Cables connecting computers and peripherals have almost completely disappeared. —Ray Kurzweil ( 29% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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By 2020, there will be a new World government. —Ray Kurzweil ( 2% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Deafness cured by 2022 ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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'Internet use reaches 5 billion worldwide' in 2020 ( 71% confidence; 10 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-03.
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“The ITER experimental fusion reactor is switched on” in 2019 ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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“Anti-fat drugs are available” in 2018 ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-18; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-02-19.
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e-paper in wide use by 2018 ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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Strait of Messina bridge completed by 2017 ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-05; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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HVD have replaced Blu-Ray by 2017 ( 6% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-05; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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'Terabyte SD cards will be available' in 2014 ( 31% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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By 2014, Iran will have detonated a nuclear bomb. ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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“22 nanometer chips are in mass production” during 2011 ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.
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“The Freedom Tower to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2014” —Intrade ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-06; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-05.
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“Carry-on luggage on US airlines will be reduced to a single handbag that inspectors can search thoroughly, in 2010 or 2011.” —Phil Goetz ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.
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“At least one Asian movie will exceed $400 mn in worldwide box office gross before the end of the decade.” —blogospheroid ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-24; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-11-21.
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“Within ten years there will be another $200 billion+ Wall Street Bailout” —James Miller ( 40% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
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“Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs.” —James Miller ( 9% confidence; 20 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
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23andMe will offer >=550k SNP genotyping for <=$100 during 2014. ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-19; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-12-31.
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Antibiotics to become useless within 10 years. —Tim Walsh ( 12% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-13; known on 2020-08-13; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-08-13.
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“BP to announce before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011 it will file for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy [in US]” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“For all practical purposes, the Mexican state won’t survive to see 2012.” —Jeff Vail ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
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The world will not end in 2012 ( 99% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kimmjaynedowling on 2010-02-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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“The Internet will become overloaded, causing brownouts and then outright gridlock. From 2012, PCs and laptops are likely to operate at a much reduced speed, rendering the internet an “unreliable toy” —Ted Ritter ( 1% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-04; known on 2012-06-06; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-06-06.
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“Somewhere before 2050 abortion on request and/or for socio-economic factors will be illegal worldwide.” ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.
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“California state government will dissolve in default.” ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“By 2015 the majority of people who make predictions on this site will have had their genomes sequenced.” ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.” ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2040-01-01.
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“By 2018 the € will not be the legal currency of France, Italy and Germany.” ( 17% confidence; 14 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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China will land a man on Mars by 2050. ( 43% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.
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“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.” ( 41% confidence; 28 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.
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“By the year 2050, there will be at least 1 green autotrophic person on the Earth…” ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2050-01-01.
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“Steve Jobs will be nominated for Presdident of the United States, by one of the two major political parties in 2012.” ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2012-09-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-06.
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“China will be considered a Christian nation, with at least 33% of its residents identifying themselves as Christians, by the year 2085.” ( 13% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2085-01-01.
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“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.” ( 7% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2150-01-01.
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“By the year 2040, AI will appear on computer viruses that will communicate with each other using a universal Internet language and will be programmed to fuse together and mutate into Computer Organs that will later be controlled by powerful search engine ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2040-01-01.
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“Music CDs compatible with current (2002) CD players will still be sold regularly in 2015.” ( 86% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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“By the year 2020, the tickets to space travel – at the least to Moon, will be available over the counter.” ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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“By 2025 the scientific evidence of a hither-to-unknown large bi-pedal great ape will be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists.” ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2025-01-01.
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The world will not end December 25, 2012. ( 98% confidence; 28 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Houshalter on 2010-06-13; known on 2012-12-26; judged right by Qiaochu on 2012-12-26.
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United States will invade Australia and take over ( 10% confidence; 21 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by tjross on 2010-03-23; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Barack Obama will get reelected in two years (not individual opinion) ( 66% confidence; 17 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by tjross on 2010-03-23; known on 2012-11-06; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.
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Michael Jackson is still alive and hiding at Neverland. ( 12% confidence; 18 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by sharidanbowman on 2010-02-10; known on 2012-06-24; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-06-24.
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Absolutely nothing apocalyptic will happen in the year 2012. ( 98% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by thephilosiraptor on 2009-11-17; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by faws on 2013-01-01.
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In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older. ( 26% confidence; 25 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-17; known on 2070-12-31.
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There will be an earthquake in California that results in at least 1000 human deaths before 2012. ( 11% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
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A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040. ( 68% confidence; 46 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by rwallace on 2009-10-14; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by freyley on 2009-10-21.