Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 89% | 80% | 63% | 94% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 32 | 9 | 63 |
Displaying all predictions made by timmartin. Filter by:
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Omicron will be the majority strain in the US by the end of January ( 95% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2021-12-07; known on 2022-02-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2022-02-01.
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UK politics: Leadership challenge against Theresa May within the next two months ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2018-07-10; known on 2018-09-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-10.
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Microsoft will not buy Valve ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by enolan on 2018-01-30; known on 2018-07-30; judged right by enolan on 2018-07-30.
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BTCUSD will exceed 20000 during 2018 ( 28% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sjy on 2018-01-17; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2018-12-31.
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Theresa May UK PM throughout 2018 ( 63% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2018-01-09; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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[The monarch of the United Kingdom on 12/31/18 is] Elizabeth II ( 87% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-02; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Bitcoin prices will be subdued for January 2018, never rising above it's ATH ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Nve on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-02-01; judged right by ccokeefe on 2018-02-01.
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[German government formation, 2017:] A new election is called ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-14; known on 2018-03-24; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-03-15.
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The first SpaceX Falcon Heavy launch will fail to make its desired orbit. ( 45% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-03; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by enolan on 2018-02-06.
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[This person will at some point be de jure president of Zimbabwe:] Grace Mugabe ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Hillary Clinton will be indicted for the sale of Uranium to Russia ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Gibs on 2017-11-12; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2018-07-02.
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We will go to war with North Korea ( 17% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Gibs on 2017-11-12; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by futurulus on 2018-07-01.
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(regular price) Petri-dish veal cheaper than (regular price) cow-produced veal at at least one large market chain(for example Amazon, WalMart, Superstore, etc) ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-11-02; known on 2018-12-31.
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[The Brazilian presidential election will] require a runoff ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-10-30; known on 2018-10-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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Politics, US – Sealed charges brought by Mueller's investigation and approved before 2017-10-29 charge Jared Kushner with a crime. ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-10-29; known on 2017-12-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-10-30.
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Politics, US – Sealed charges brought by Mueller's investigation and approved before 2017-10-29 charge President Trump with a crime. ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-10-29; known on 2017-12-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-10-30.
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Politics, EU – Carles Puigdemont arrested by police, or turns self in to police, before the end of 2017-11-05. ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-10-29; known on 2017-11-06; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-11-06.
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Bitcoin: trades above 7k USD at GDAX at some point before the end of the year. ( 67% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-10-20; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-11-02.
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25th amendment used to take Trump out before term is over https://twitter.com/ElliNude/status/918196663314874369 ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-12; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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Someone senior in the trump administration goes to jail over collusion with the russians ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-21; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by timmartin on 2018-01-04.
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Before Jan 1, 2018, at least five deaths will occur in the US widely attributed to Antifa ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-17; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Britain will leave the EU as a “soft Brexit”, keeping the four freedoms. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Alti Camelus on 2017-06-20; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Putin will be chosen as president in 2018 #research #politics_russia ( 86% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2018-03-19; judged right by timmartin on 2018-03-19.
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Half of world GDP is China. ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-17; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-30.
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Politics, UK – Arrests made in connection to an investigation into the Grenfell Tower fire before 15th of June 2018. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-15; known on 2018-06-15; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-06-25.
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Bitcoin at 10,000,000$/BTC (or equivalent in VEF or other currency) on any market where trading occurs. ( 6% confidence; 16 wagers; 31 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-10; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by bendini on 2017-12-27.
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The Matrix “The Next Generation” / prequels released by Warner Bros ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-01; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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The House Will Have A Democratic Majority after the 2018 election. ( 69% confidence; 14 wagers )
Created by Shuffledrive on 2017-05-20; known on 2018-11-06; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-09.
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More than 1,000 US troops deployed in North Korea by December 2017 ( 9% confidence; 20 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-05-14; known on 2017-12-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-12-01.
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Scotland & Canada are one country on July 15th, 2019 ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-20; known on 2019-07-15; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2019-07-15.
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Scotland & Canada are one country on July 15th, 2018 ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-20; known on 2018-07-15; judged wrong by ioannes on 2018-07-15.
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Donald Trump will not ride in the Queen's carriage during a visit to the UK in October 2017. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-15; known on 2017-10-30; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-10-30.
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Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2018 ( 82% confidence; 52 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2017-03-31; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Uber will go bankrupt, dissolve, or merge with another company by the end of 2018 ( 17% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sdr on 2017-03-20; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Kim Jong Un is Supreme Leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea on November 15, 2017 ( 92% confidence; 22 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-27; known on 2017-11-16; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-11-16.
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Trump will not be impeached ( 78% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2025-01-30; judged wrong by regex on 2019-12-19.
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Donald Trump is still President of the United States at the end of 2017 UTC ( 85% confidence; 30 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-29; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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Deportations in 2018 up > 50% vs 2016 ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Temeraire on 2017-01-28; known on 2019-03-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2019-05-21.
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Twitter shut down. ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-25; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2018-01-01.
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Bitcoin will end the year above $400. ( 84% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by timmartin on 2017-12-31.
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FTSE100 over 7,000 on January 1st 2018 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by penten on 2017-01-17; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by penten on 2018-01-02.
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Peter Thiel announces 2018 bid for California governorship ( 17% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-15; known on 2018-11-07; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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Mark Zuckerberg will run in the 2020 USA presidential elections. ( 9% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-14; known on 2019-08-16; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2019-08-16.
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Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034 ( 0% confidence; 27 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-10; known on 2034-01-01.
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Hilary Clinton goes to jail ( 10% confidence; 21 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by cjbeyer on 2016-11-16; known on 2018-06-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-06-16.
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President Trump jailed ( 1% confidence; 23 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2017-11-09; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-11-09.
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Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK —Charlie Stross ( 2% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-10-07; known on 2026-10-07.
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The Hometrack London house price index will be lower by the end of 2018 than today ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-22; known on 2018-12-16; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-02-05.
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Worldwide treaty banning all nuclear weapons + plan to reduce weapon stocks to 0 in place. ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2019-06-15; judged wrong by AlexLamson on 2019-06-27.
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UK Police will have the ability to scan people's faces from their cars as they drive past, as they do with License plates ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-06; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2018-07-10.
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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2018 ( 34% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2019-06-01; judged right by Pablo on 2019-04-22.
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UK will default on its debt. ( 14% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-06; known on 2017-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-27.
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“Sonia Sotomayor to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Reddit will exist in a recognizably similar form to its current incarnation, as of December 31, 2019. ( 70% confidence; 16 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sflicht on 2015-12-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by sflicht on 2020-01-01.
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Within five years, Pope Francis (or a successor) makes a comment in an official or unofficial capacity that there is no literal hell. ( 11% confidence; 21 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by adbge on 2014-01-07; known on 2019-01-07; judged right by Osuniev on 2019-01-27.
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It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ( 1% confidence; 21 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2013-08-26; known on 2028-08-26.
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Google Chrome browser will survive 5 years ( 93% confidence; 27 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, “How to create a mind”) ( 25% confidence; 17 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-02-08; known on 2029-01-02.
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“Newspapers as we know them today will either not exist, or no longer print ink on paper” by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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There will be a driverless car available for purchase for less than $100,000 (inflation adjusted to Jan 1, 2012) in the US in 2018. ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Porejide on 2022-09-25.
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'The African Central Bank is established' in 2018 ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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'Cheques are phased out in the UK' by 2019 ( 39% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-27; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.