Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Price for Fiji Airlines to Nadi departing Auckland 31 December to not increase overnight between 12 and 13 Sep 2015 (currently on $544 NZD as per Webjet) ( 65% confidence )
Created by Caleb Withers on 2015-09-11; known on 2015-09-11; judged wrong by Caleb Withers on 2015-09-11.
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Price for Air NZ to Nadi departing Auckland 31 December to not increase overnight between 12 and 13 Sep 2015 (currently on $498 NZD as per Webjet) ( 65% confidence )
Created by Caleb Withers on 2015-09-11; known on 2015-09-11; judged right by Caleb Withers on 2015-09-11.
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Price for Air NZ to Nadi departing Auckland 31 December to not increase overnight between 12 and 13 Sep 2015 (currently on $498 NZD as per Webjet) ( 65% confidence )
Created by Caleb Withers on 2015-09-11; known on 2015-09-11; judged right by Caleb Withers on 2015-09-11.
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The US Supreme Court will rule in favor of the government in King v. Burwell ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-11-14; known on 2015-11-15; judged right by kuudes on 2015-09-09.
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'Queen Elizabeth II becomes the longest reigning monarch in British history' ( 89% confidence; 27 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2015-09-10; judged right by kuudes on 2015-09-09.
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“Five years from now on the web for free you’ll be able to find the best lectures in the world. It will be better than any single university.” —Bill Gates ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-07; known on 2015-08-06; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-30.
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The Bernie Sanders Campaign Subreddit, http://www.reddit.com/r/SandersForPresident/, will have more than 100,000 subscribers by the end of 2015. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Faceh on 2015-05-01; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Faceh on 2015-09-09.
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“Five years from now on the web for free you’ll be able to find the best lectures in the world. It will be better than any single university.” —Bill Gates ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-07; known on 2015-08-06; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-30.
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Burning man predictions: I will throw up on the plane. ( 8% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-22; known on 2015-09-07; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-09-07.
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Burning man predictions: I will see >0 topless girls. ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-22; known on 2015-09-07; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-09-07.
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Burning man predictions: I will cry >0 times. ( 40% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-22; known on 2015-09-07; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-09-07.
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Burning man predictions: We’ll miss our connecting flight on the way there. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-22; known on 2015-09-07; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-09-07.
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Burning man predictions: I will see Vika. ( 99% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-22; known on 2015-09-07; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-09-07.
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Burning man predictions: Giant penis tower will be there again. ( 65% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-22; known on 2015-09-07; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-09-07.
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Burning man predictions: I will have a nightmare involving bugs. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-22; known on 2015-09-07; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-09-07.
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Burning man predictions: I will get at least 1 bug bite. ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-22; known on 2015-09-07; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-09-07.
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I will weigh 63kg by September ( 60% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2015-06-13; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2015-09-07.
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Greek Central Government or some Greek Institutions will agree to move at least 24 000 million euro worth of assets to a judicial person outside Greek jurisdiction. The initial agreement happens within the deadline of this prediction. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2015-07-12; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-09-03.
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Uptown Funk will be on Just Dance 2016 ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Adele_L on 2015-04-04; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-09-03.
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Final grades for my students will be in by May 14 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-05-14; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-03.
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Florian Luca and Carl Pomerance's bound on the radical of a perfect number will be improved within 3 years by replacing the 17/26 exponent with some smaller exponent. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-03; known on 2015-09-03; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-03.
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I will get a library card by the end of the month. ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-24; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2015-09-03.
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“Potential GDP growth might also take a hit, falling from around 2.8% during 1997-2008 to around 2.25% in the coming years.” —Nouriel Roubini ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2015-06-15; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-27.
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MetaMed to face legal challenges from regulators by 2016 (S.T. Rev via Twitter). ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-03-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2015-09-02.
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This final PB API test will work correctly ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by raehik on 2015-09-02; known on 2015-09-02; judged wrong by raehik on 2015-09-02.
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This PB API date + time test will work correctly ( 40% confidence )
Created by raehik on 2015-09-02; known on 2015-09-02; judged right by raehik on 2015-09-02.
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My first PredictionBook API call will work ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by raehik on 2015-09-02; known on 2015-09-02; judged wrong by raehik on 2015-09-02.
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I'll finish Halmos Naive Set Theory by Aug 31 ( 34% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Nikolas on 2015-08-15; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by Nikolas on 2015-09-02.
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I will fix the versioning issue tomorrow. ( 50% confidence )
Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-31; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2015-09-01.
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I will have the analytics update ready tomorrow. ( 30% confidence )
Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-31; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2015-09-01.
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I will weigh more than 200lb before August 28th, 2015 ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by lumpzy on 2015-05-13; known on 2015-08-28; judged right by jesselevine on 2015-09-01.
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I will be >200 lbs, <13%bf by fall 2015 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-05-13; known on 2015-08-20; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2015-08-31.
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I will finish the current chapter (second to last) of this book before going to sleep tonight. ( 60% confidence )
Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-30; known on 2015-08-31; judged right by reubensandwich on 2015-08-30.
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I will finish this book before going to sleep tonight. ( 10% confidence )
Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-30; known on 2015-08-31; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2015-08-30.
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I will have moved into my new flat on time. ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-08-14; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-08-30.
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I will push the pull updates before lunch. ( 90% confidence )
Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-27; known on 2015-08-27; judged right by reubensandwich on 2015-08-30.
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My pull will be merged today. ( 75% confidence )
Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-27; known on 2015-08-28; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2015-08-30.
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My older pull will be merged today. ( 60% confidence )
Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-27; known on 2015-08-28; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2015-08-30.
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My pull will be merged today. ( 75% confidence )
Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-27; known on 2015-08-28; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2015-08-30.
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My older pull will be merged today. ( 60% confidence )
Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-27; known on 2015-08-28; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2015-08-30.
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I will have a draft of the updated analytics available by the end of the week. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-27; known on 2015-08-29; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2015-08-30.
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I will get a job offer from GoDaddy. ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-08-13; known on 2015-08-29; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-08-28.
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We won't miss any train in our connection. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Chri on 2015-08-26; known on 2015-08-26; judged right by Chri on 2015-08-28.
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I will complete the proposal tomorrow. ( 60% confidence )
Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-26; known on 2015-08-27; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2015-08-27.
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I will write all the required tests tomorrow morning. ( 75% confidence )
Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-26; known on 2015-08-26; judged right by reubensandwich on 2015-08-27.
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I will have to help debug the configuration error. ( 50% confidence )
Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-26; known on 2015-08-27; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2015-08-27.
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I'll get accepted to volunteer at EA global Oxford ( 10% confidence )
Created by Nikolas on 2015-07-26; known on 2015-08-28; judged wrong by Nikolas on 2015-08-27.
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I will have the proposal ready for review before lunch. ( 40% confidence )
Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-25; known on 2015-08-25; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2015-08-26.
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I will finish updates based on yesterday's review before 3. ( 75% confidence )
Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-25; known on 2015-08-25; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2015-08-26.
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I will read a chapter before dinner. ( 80% confidence )
Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-25; known on 2015-08-25; judged right by reubensandwich on 2015-08-26.