Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 67% | 100% | 50% | 71% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 22 |
Displaying all predictions made by tormey. Filter by:
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“Glasses” computing devices (peripheral or standalone – example: Google Glasses) to have sales of at least 100 million units per year by 2018. ( 50% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-20; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2020-05-15.
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On The Office (US), the Scranton Strangler will be revealed during the final season to be a character we have seen before on the show. ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by tormey on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-05-17; judged wrong by ShIxtan on 2013-06-30.
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Toby will be revealed as the Scranton Strangler in the final season of The Office (US). ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by tormey on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-05-17; judged wrong by ShIxtan on 2013-06-30.
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By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI. ( 6% confidence; 24 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2021-01-01.
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New Star Wars movie will be better than Phantom Menace and Attack of the Clones ( 70% confidence; 20 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-02; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-12-28.
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“Google's self-driving cars will be available [for purchase at a reasonable price to buy and drive legally] for everyone [the same market that can currently afford to buy a car] within five years” – Sergey Brin ( 16% confidence; 32 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Qiaochu on 2012-10-14; known on 2017-09-26; judged wrong by Tanner on 2017-09-26.