Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 33% | 60% | 40% | 38% | 72% | 67% | |
Sample Size | 3 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 25 | 6 | 52 |
Displaying all predictions made by ZLM. Filter by:
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This site would benefit from having a hashtag functionality for predictions, allowing for easy searching and being able to look up prediction accuracy for specific hashtags. ( 90% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by ZLM on 2014-02-14; known on 2019-02-14; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-08.
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This site would become viral if the admins incorporated facebook integration (eg, your public predictions could automatically get shared on facebook). ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by ZLM on 2014-02-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-14.
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I will be able to easily slide an index finger between my wrist and my watch that I haven't worn since before I started my transition. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by ZLM on 2014-02-11; known on 2014-02-11; judged right by ZLM on 2014-02-11.
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“Satoshi Nakamoto” collaborated with Nick Szabo to create Bitcoin. ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ZLM on 2014-02-11; known on 2040-01-01.
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I will be able to afford to sign up for cryonics by the time I'm 30. ( 95% confidence )
Created by ZLM on 2014-02-11; known on 2019-01-30.
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I will figure out what being transgender means by my 26th birthday. ( 20% confidence )
Created by ZLM on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-30.
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I will move to the silicon valley before I'm 30. ( 50% confidence )
Created by ZLM on 2014-02-11; known on 2019-01-30.
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I will be alive on my 33rd birthday. ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by ZLM on 2014-02-11; known on 2022-01-30; judged wrong by God on 2022-04-27.
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I will be alive on my 26th birthday. ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ZLM on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-30.
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By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ( 54% confidence; 42 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by ZLM on 2014-02-10; known on 2025-01-01; judged unknown by lavalamp on 2014-08-21.
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43a4c3b7d0a0654e1919ad6e7cbfa6f8d41bcce8f1320fbe511b6d7c38609ce5a2d39328e02e9777b339152987ea02b3f8adb57d84377fa7ccb708658b7d2edc ( 74% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-03; known on 2014-06-03; judged right by gwern on 2014-06-03.