Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 43% | 63% | 71% | 83% | 93% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 373 | 575 | 496 | 412 | 690 | 110 | 2656 |
Displaying all predictions made by gwern. Filter by:
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North Korea will be wealthier than Afghanistan in 2061. —Scott Sumner ( 73% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-03; known on 2061-01-01.
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GJP: #1041 Will Italy's Silvio Berlusconi resign, lose re-election/confidence vote, OR otherwise vacate office before 1 January 2012? ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-03.
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GJP: #1032 Will the Japanese government formally announce the decision to buy at least 40 new jet fighters by 30 November 2011? ( 45% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-03.
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GJP: #1028 Will Moody’s issue a new downgrade of the sovereign debt rating of the Government of Greece between 3 October 2011 and 30 November 2011? ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-03.
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The singularity will occur by the year 2070 ( 45% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pleeppleep on 2011-12-02; known on 2070-01-01.
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The new Silk Road URL will be revealed to be a scam/phishing/law enforcement one. ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 109 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-02; known on 2012-12-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-02.
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The US will be at war with Iran by 2014 ( 18% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Isaac on 2011-12-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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Reddit: birdie / cheese are in a relationship in 6 months (and we get an update). ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-01; known on 2012-06-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-06-01.
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Grognor will host a meetup at his university by the end of January 2012, and I will successfully convince either gwern or drethelin that I attended Grognor's meetup. ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2011-11-30; known on 2012-02-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.
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Grognor will hold a meetup at his university by the end of January 2012. ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-30; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.
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Grognor will hold a meetup at his university by the end of January 2012, and me & drethelin will donate $10 to charity as agreed in #lesswrong ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-30; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.
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Seth Kurtenbach will approve my comment. ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-30; known on 2011-12-05; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-30.
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brazil84 will approve my comment. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-30; known on 2011-12-03; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-30.
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Carrie Fisher will die before Harrison Ford. ( 46% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-28; known on 2040-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-12-28.
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The USG will ratify the Trans Pacific Partnership before 2015. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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“Newt Gingrich to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012.” -Intrade ( 18% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-28; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-11-10.
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I will finish Seneca 84 tonight ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Codyz on 2011-11-28; known on 2011-11-29; judged wrong by Codyz on 2011-11-28.
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Mitt Romney will be the next President of the United States. He will win the Republican nomination and win the general election in 2012. ( 31% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by capcuervo on 2011-11-26; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-07.
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By 2035, the Voynich Manuscript will be determined to be written in an archaic form of a language or dialect currently spoken in Italy. ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-24; known on 2035-01-01.
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baslisks will join #lesswrong any time in December ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-11-24; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by Jach on 2011-12-02.
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By five years from now, (independent) transcriptome data from human post-mortem samples will confirm the finding that the expression of DRD2 is significantly upregulated in the striatum during development (from birth to >= day 100, at alpha 0.05), conting ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Porejide on 2011-11-24; known on 2016-11-24.
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The man in the screen cap is Yoshiyuki Tomino ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-23; known on 2011-12-23; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-24.
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Mangaka Mutsumi Akazaki (formerly of Fractale) will be publishing a regular series within a year. ( 40% confidence; 77 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-23; known on 2012-11-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-11-23.
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No open source Minecraft client before 2023 ( 57% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-22; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2023-01-01.
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Amazon will dominate Android appstores —Marco Arment ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-23; known on 2013-11-23; judged wrong by kpreid on 2013-11-23.
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My guinea pig will learn to move in a circle on command in 2 months time. ( 37% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by roshni on 2011-11-23; known on 2012-01-30; judged wrong by roshni on 2012-03-05.
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“Orkut to be merged with Google Plus in the near future” —Chris Jolley ( 33% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-23; known on 2013-11-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-11-23.
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By 2050, the Great Red Spot will no longer be the largest storm on Jupiter. ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-23; known on 2050-01-01.
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Open source MineCraft client by 2021 ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2021-01-01.
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Open source MineCraft client by 2017 ( 27% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-22; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2017-01-13.
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Open source MineCraft client by 2015 ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-22; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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Open source MineCraft client by 2014. ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.
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Notch (or Mojang) announces open source MineCraft client has been released by 2013. ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-22; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2013-01-03.
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The USA will refuse again to commit to new Emmissions Regulations at COP17 ( 70% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by general on 2011-11-17; known on 2011-12-09; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-14.
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There will be a new (canon) Haruhi anime by 2015. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-20; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-01-01.
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There will be a new (canon) Haruhi anime by 2014. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-20; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by nshepperd on 2014-01-04.
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There will be a new (canon) Haruhi anime by 2013. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-20; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Puella Magi Madoka Magica will win a Nihon Taisho SF award ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-21; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-03.
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GJP: #1033 Will the Tunisian Ennahda party officially announce the formation of an interim coalition government by 15 November 2011? ( 65% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2011-11-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-20.
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The US$ will touch parity with the Euro (1€=1US$) before the end of 2012 ( 33% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by herb on 2011-11-20; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-31.
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“Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150.” -lukeprog ( 66% confidence; 13 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20; known on 2150-01-01.
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I will start studying for the Institute of Actuaries' entry exam this week. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-20; known on 2011-11-28; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-11-27.
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I will pass the Institute of Actuaries' entry exam. ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-20; known on 2012-02-15; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-02-10.
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Caffeine will be an illegal substance … in 60 countries by 2027. ( 4% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2027-01-01.
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Jacob Zuma of ANC will not be re-elected to lead South Africa at Mangaung 2012. Julius Malema is his downfall, he shouldn't have sacked his liutenant rather he should have made peace with the king maker. ( 60% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by general on 2011-11-19; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by D_Malik on 2012-12-18.
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Herman Cain is an “art project” as described by Rachel Maddow. ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by fork on 2011-11-19; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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The war in Israel-Plestine will end ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by cheick on 2011-11-18; known on 2011-11-18; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-21.
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I will get the job I'm interviewing for on Tuesday ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by roshni on 2011-11-18; known on 2011-12-30; judged right by roshni on 2011-11-22.
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I will still be using prediction book by January 2012 ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by roshni on 2011-11-18; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-10.
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Chavez will not be re-elected president of Venezuela on October 07, 2012. ( 33% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by alexguerrero on 2011-11-17; known on 2012-10-07; judged wrong by Pablo on 2012-10-08.
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By 2024, either a) group isomorphism problem will be shown to be equivalent to the graph isomorphism problem or b) the group isomorphism will be shown to be in P. ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-17; known on 2024-01-01.
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the Earth will be hit by a less than a mile wide asteroid by 2029. Two will be seen and one will hit. Impact will be in the Pacific Ocean south of Guam. ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-07-29.
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With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ( 8% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2023-07-29; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-05.
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The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII). ( 5% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2039-12-15.
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Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025. ( 8% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-11-17.
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Computers will become truely self-aware by 2029. ( 31% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-12-27.
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Surgeries for 95% of the worlds medical problems will be drastically cost-reduced and available by 2028. ( 27% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2028-12-27.
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The worlds first “truely” cryogenic sleep chamber will go online in Feb. 2027, fixing a flawed design and conditions for cryogenic stasis. ( 5% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2027-02-27.
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The Third World War (WW III) will occur within 20 years from 2012. ( 15% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-12-31.
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Worldwide biometric ID system will go online by 2022, unknown to the standard publics awareness. ( 13% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2022-12-30.
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HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it. ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-11-30.
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Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029. ( 7% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-12-01.
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The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045 ( 56% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-17; known on 2046-01-01.
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The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035 ( 51% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-17; known on 2036-01-01.
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A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment. ( 4% confidence; 20 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2026-11-30.
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The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025 ( 30% confidence; 15 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-17; known on 2026-01-01.
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The first truly human telepathic-link will occur in 2065 via a biometric implant. ( 6% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2065-12-01.
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The United States, Canada, and Mexico will form the North American Union in August 2020. ( 4% confidence; 22 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2020-08-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-08-30.
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Truly “Pilotless” air travel will be the standard in 2050. ( 62% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2050-12-16.
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Contact Sports (football,boxing, kick boxing, most martial arts) will be outlawed in 60% of the world by 2025 due to a medical discovery. ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-12-16.
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Holographic Television (HTV) will be a trillion dollar industry by 2025. ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-12-16.
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Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025. ( 10% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-01-16.
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World governments will ban chemical/Biological/Nuclear weapons after The Third World War (WW III) and make it a penalty of death to all who develop such weapons … anywhere … on Earth. ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2040-01-16.
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The Third World War (WW III) death toll will exceed 2.5 billion people, with another 2 billion to follow 15 years after the war has ended. ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-01-16.
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By 2046 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125 ( 62% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-16; known on 2045-01-01.
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By 2036 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125 ( 35% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-16; known on 2036-01-01.
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By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150 ( 28% confidence; 20 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-16; known on 2085-01-01.
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By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140 ( 42% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-16; known on 2085-01-01.
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“New Zealand to be in recession in December 2011 quarter” -ipredict ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-16; known on 2012-02-22; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-29.
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“Lindsay Lohan will be dead within 2 years.” ( 8% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-16; known on 2013-11-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-16.
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The oldest living person on 2020-01-01 will be at least 130 years old. ( 0% confidence; 15 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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The Singularity will occur by 2050. ( 34% confidence; 27 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by michaelanissimov on 2011-11-15; known on 2050-01-01.
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The SCOTUS ruling on the Obama administration's health care reform law will be a 5-4 decision. ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RobertLumley on 2011-11-15; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-07-01.
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The British High Court will rule in favor of the journal Nature in the libel case brought against it by Professor Mohamed El Naschie. ( 82% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jason on 2011-11-15; known on 2012-06-30; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-09.
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The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025. ( 72% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.
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The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025. ( 30% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.
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The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025. ( 9% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.
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I will join the military before 2015. ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-01-01.
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I will continue using PredictionBook at least once a month until 2015. ( 33% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-01.
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“Sometime in the next five years, there will be a terroristic attack in or near Las Vegas.” -David Henderson ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-14; known on 2016-11-14; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-14.
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By the end of this month, the Russian Phobos-Grunt interplanetary probe will be destroyed. ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-01.
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GJP: #1042 Will Lucas Papademos be the next Prime Minister of Greece? ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2012-01-02; judged right by gwern on 2011-11-13.
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My continuous web archiving system will have 90%+ uptime in 2012 ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-11-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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30 new speaker invitations for Singularity Summit 2012 will be written by the end of Monday, Nov. 14th. ( 78% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2011-11-12; known on 2011-11-15; judged right by lukeprog on 2011-11-15.
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At the end of 2012, the Poincaré conjecture will remain the only solved Millennium Prize Problem. ( 94% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Qiaochu on 2013-01-01.
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Within a month, the British High Court will rule in favor of the journal Nature in the libel case brought against it by Professor Mohamed El Naschie. ( 48% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2011-12-13; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2011-12-14.
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TS will say e plans to undertake a PhD in immunology ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-12; known on 2011-11-12; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-13.
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MC will order modafinil within one month ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-12; known on 2011-12-12; judged wrong by shokwave on 2011-12-22.
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YF will order modafinil within a month. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-12; known on 2011-12-12; judged wrong by shokwave on 2011-12-24.
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I will have played Fate/stay night by the end of this year. ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-01.