Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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I will complete chapter 16 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-25; known on 2012-06-25; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-25.
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I will complete chapter 15 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-25; known on 2012-06-25; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-25.
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I will complete chapter 14 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-25; known on 2012-06-25; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-25.
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SOPA will become US law and either Youtube or Megaupload will be shutdown. ( 24% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Christopher on 2012-06-25.
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I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-24; known on 2012-06-24; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-24.
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I will complete chapter 9 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Geometry within the next 10 hours. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-24; known on 2012-06-24; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-24.
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Morsi will win Egypt's election ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-06-16; known on 2012-06-19; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-06-24.
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Michael Jackson is still alive and hiding at Neverland. ( 12% confidence; 18 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by sharidanbowman on 2010-02-10; known on 2012-06-24; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-06-24.
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I will complete chapter 13 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-24; known on 2012-06-24; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-24.
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I will apply for a job as a software developer. ( 30% confidence )
Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-01-03; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-06-23.
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I will get an alpha for the CATAM project on hypothesis testing ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Sarokrae on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-06-25; judged right by Sarokrae on 2012-06-23.
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I will get an alpha for the CATAM project on continued fractions ( 60% confidence )
Created by Sarokrae on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-06-25; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-06-23.
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I will get a 2:1 this year ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Sarokrae on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-06-25; judged right by Sarokrae on 2012-06-23.
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I will be get a first this year ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Sarokrae on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-06-25; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-06-23.
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Miami Heat will win NBA championship in 2012 ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-02; known on 2012-06-16; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-06-22.
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For all x, if x is a comment in response to Luke's 'NEW GAME' comment and x contains at least 1 correct answer, then x will have positive karma at the prediction closing time. ( 80% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-19; known on 2012-06-26; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-27.
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For all x, if x is a comment in response to Luke's 'NEW GAME' comment and x contains at least 1 correct answer, then x will have positive karma at the prediction closing time. ( 80% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-19; known on 2012-06-26; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-27.
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Hazem Salah Abu Ismail will be the next Egyptian president. ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by HamletHenna on 2012-03-25; known on 2012-06-20; judged wrong by HamletHenna on 2012-06-20.
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Price of bitcoin to reach $10 before June 20. on MtGox ( 75% confidence )
Created by _W_ on 2012-02-10; known on 2012-06-20; judged wrong by _W_ on 2012-06-20.
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I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 8 hours. ( 45% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-20; known on 2012-06-20; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-20.
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I will complete chapter 9 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Geometry within the next 8 hours. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-20; known on 2012-06-20; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-20.
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I will read chapter 2 of The Science of Conjecture within the next 8 hours. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-20; known on 2012-06-20; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-20.
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I will complete chapter 8 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Geometry within the next 8 hours. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-20; known on 2012-06-20; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-20.
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I will read chapter 1 of The Science of Conjecture within the next 8 hours. ( 100% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-20; known on 2012-06-20; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-20.
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Miami Heat will win game 4 of the NBA finals ( 65% confidence )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-06-19; known on 2012-06-20; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-06-20.
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I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 55% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-19; known on 2012-06-19; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-19.
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I will complete chapter 7 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Geometry within the next 10 hours. ( 65% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-19; known on 2012-06-19; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-19.
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I will complete chapter 12 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-19; known on 2012-06-19; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-19.
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I will complete chapter 6 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Geometry within the next 10 hours. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-19; known on 2012-06-19; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-19.
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I will complete chapter 11 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-19; known on 2012-06-19; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-19.
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Syriza won't win the most votes (out of all the parties) in the Greek election ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-06-17; known on 2012-06-19; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-06-18.
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Greece will have another election by end of June, 2012 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-10; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-06-18.
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I will complete chapter 5 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Geometry within the next 4 hours. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-18; known on 2012-06-18; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-18.
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I will complete chapter 10 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 55% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-18; known on 2012-06-18; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-18.
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I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-18; known on 2012-06-18; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-18.
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I will complete chapter 4 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Geometry within the next 10 hours. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-18; known on 2012-06-18; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-18.
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I will complete chapter 9 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-18; known on 2012-06-18; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-18.
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I will finish Learn Python the Hard way by the end of the School Year ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by meisnewbie on 2012-04-30; known on 2012-06-17; judged wrong by meisnewbie on 2012-06-17.
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I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 5 hours. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-15; known on 2012-06-15; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-16.
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I will complete Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots within the next 150 days. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-03; known on 2012-09-30; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-15.
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No goal will have been scored after 10 minutes in the Spain-Ireland football match on 2012-06-14 ( 90% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2012-06-14; known on 2012-06-15; judged wrong by Leo on 2012-06-15.
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I will score over 80% aggregate on my finals. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-11; known on 2012-06-15; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-06-15.
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I will score over 60% aggregate on my finals. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-11; known on 2012-06-15; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-06-15.
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0fyO6ypVYI This super-awesome YouTube video will be taken down by the end of the year. ( 14% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-01-08; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by Grognor on 2012-06-14.
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I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 5 hours. ( 100% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-14; known on 2012-06-14; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-14.
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I will complete my geometry flashcard deck and merge it with my master deck within the next 5 hours. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-14; known on 2012-06-14; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-14.
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I will read chapter V of GEB within the next 5 hours. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-14; known on 2012-06-14; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-14.
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Gwern will get the matrix IQ test data from Fitzgerald 2012 —shminux ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-06-07; known on 2012-06-14; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-06-14.
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I will read chapter IV of GEB within the next 10 hours. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-13; known on 2012-06-13; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-13.
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I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 100% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-13; known on 2012-06-13; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-13.