Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 41% | 46% | 71% | 86% | 96% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 34 | 41 | 41 | 50 | 67 | 3 | 236 |
Displaying all predictions made by Athrithalix. Filter by:
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Donald Trump will have a face-to-face meeting with Kim Jong-un “by May”. ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-03-09; known on 2018-04-30; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-04-30.
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I will have a haircut on Friday and be pleased with the result. ( 65% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-08; known on 2018-03-09; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-03-09.
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I will have a haircut on Friday. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-08; known on 2018-03-09; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-03-09.
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No satellites massing less than 500kg to be launched in March. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-06; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-03-12.
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I will require new glasses. ( 74% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-05; known on 2018-03-09; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-03-09.
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My vision will have further deteriorated, as judged by my optician. ( 96% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-05; known on 2018-03-09; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-03-09.
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I will have to schedule another appointment for further treatment following my dentist appointment this Friday. ( 4% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-05; known on 2018-03-09; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-03-09.
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My teeth will require major scraping at the dentist on Friday. ( 35% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-05; known on 2018-03-09; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-03-09.
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My teeth will require minor scraping at the dentist on Friday. ( 87% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-05; known on 2018-03-09; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-03-09.
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I will have arrange a donation at the Oxford clinic before the end of June. ( 55% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-05; known on 2018-07-16.
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Brexit will successfully have take place by August 2019 ( 32% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Finma on 2018-03-03; known on 2019-01-08; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-02.
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Oprah Winfrey will run for president in 2020. ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by iCrown on 2018-02-26; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2020-11-01.
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We will vote to watch Redline on Friday. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-02-26; known on 2018-03-02; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-03-05.
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Fewer than 63 'ThinSats' from Twiggs Space Lab will be launched on the Autumn Antares in 2018. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-02-26; known on 2018-12-01; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-02-27.
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SpinLaunch launches no payloads (test or otherwise, suborbital or other) by 2030. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-02-23; known on 2030-01-01.
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WFIRST is not completely cancelled in 2018. ( 63% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-02-20; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-03-22.
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Bitcoin will end 2018 above $50,000 USD ( 19% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by daedalus_21 on 2018-02-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Vector will complete multiple successful orbital launches in 2018. ( 45% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-02-15; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2019-01-01.
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Fewer small satellites (<500kg) launched in 2018 than 2017. ( 55% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-02-14; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-11-25.
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Rocket Lab's next launch to be called “Business Time” ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-02-14; known on 2018-06-16; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-03-14.
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Launcher One to launch commercial payloads in 2018. ( 22% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-02-14; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2019-01-01.
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My phone alarm will malfunction at least once more before July. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-02-14; known on 2018-06-30; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-02-15.
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Star-ALE will not participate in the Tokyo Olympics opening ceremony. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-02-12; known on 2018-10-01.
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I will attend Albion 3. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-02-12; known on 2018-09-20; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-02-22.
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I will attend Syndicate 2018. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-02-12; known on 2018-09-20; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-02-22.
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Politics, UK – The Department for International Development announces it is halting or suspending some funding for Oxfam due to sexual misconduct allegations against aid workers before the start of April 2018. ( 17% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-02-10; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-04-01.
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Two more Falcon Heavy launches in 2018. ( 62% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-02-07; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2019-01-01.
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One more Falcon Heavy launch in 2018. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-02-07; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2019-01-01.
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GLAAD poll suggesting that LGBQ acceptance is down will mostly not be borne out by further research. ( 81% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2020-01-01.
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Trump’s approval rating lower than 40% at end of year ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Trump’s approval rating lower than 50% at end of year. ( 93% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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PredictIt shows Donald Trump having highest chance to be GOP nominee at end of year. ( 89% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Dapple on 2019-01-02.
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Donald Trump remains president at end of year. ( 93% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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At least 1 SpaceX Falcon 9 mission in 2018 is a failure with payload damage or loss. ( 23% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2018-02-05; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2019-01-01.
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In February, Bitcoin prices will hit an ATL. And also rise to within $3800 of the ATH ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Nve on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-03-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-03-01.
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Luna (dating on blockchain) is not a scam. ( 94% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by leo_grint on 2018-01-31; known on 2018-06-30; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.
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No Google Lunar X Prize finalists to soft-land on the Moon in 2018. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-01-26; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2019-01-01.
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A commercial Falcon Heavy launch to take place before the end of 2018. ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-01-25; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by enolan on 2019-01-20.
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OneWeb's initial 10 satellites will launch later than their currently announced date of 19th August 2018. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-01-25; known on 2018-08-19; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.
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I will not see the 'Humanity Star' satellite before it deorbits. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-01-25; known on 2018-10-01; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-05-21.
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I predict that humans will land on mars by 2030 ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bacon1001 on 2018-01-25; known on 2030-01-01.
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BTCUSD will exceed 20000 during 2018 ( 28% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sjy on 2018-01-17; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2018-12-31.
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Hillary Clinton is indicted by the end of 2018 ( 3% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2019-01-01.
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Satoshi Nakamoto will have at one point been the world's richest person by 11:59 pm, December 31st, 2019. ( 24% confidence; 9 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by dchristie on 2018-01-12; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by dchristie on 2020-01-01.
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Theresa May UK PM throughout 2018 ( 63% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2018-01-09; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Trump will leave office early instead of being impeached. ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Dr K on 2018-01-07; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.
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Kim Jong Un is leader of North Korea on 12/31/18 ( 90% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-03; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Current Iranian regime is overthrown by April 2018 ( 6% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2018-01-02; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2018-04-02.
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[The monarch of the United Kingdom on 12/31/18 is] Elizabeth II ( 87% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-02; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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[The monarch of the United Kingdom on 12/31/18 is] Charles ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-02; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2019-01-01.
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Bitcoin would have hit an ATH in the last ~38 days ( 33% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Nve on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by Nve on 2018-04-01.
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Bitcoin prices will be subdued for January 2018, never rising above it's ATH ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Nve on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-02-01; judged right by ccokeefe on 2018-02-01.
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North Korea will test-detonate a nuclear weapon in 2018 ( 32% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Francis is still Pope on 1/1/19 ( 87% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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VR technology will be available to middle-class consumers for home entertainment use by 2020 ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Ardenlk on 2017-12-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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UK is still, and has continuously been, a full member state of EU during this prediction. ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2017-12-28; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2020-03-31.
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Donald Trump will not be impeached throughout his first term. ( 65% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Verres on 2017-12-21; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2019-12-31.
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SpaceX to beat Boeing in their informal space race (first boots on Mars). ( 80% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-12-12; known on 2022-01-16.
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The payload satellites on Rocket Lab's 'Still Testing' Electron rocket will deploy and operate successfully. ( 57% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-18; known on 2017-12-20; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-01-22.
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The first SpaceX Falcon Heavy launch will be declared successful, whether it meets all objectives or not. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-03; known on 2018-02-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2018-02-06.
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The first SpaceX Falcon Heavy launch will fail to make its desired orbit. ( 45% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-03; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by enolan on 2018-02-06.
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Public demonstration of an AI that can learn the rules of, and play at a superhuman level, most board/card games without supervision, just watching many games and being told who won, in 2018 or 2019. ( 64% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2017-12-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-01-01.
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Public demonstration of an AI that can learn the rules of, and play at a superhuman level, most board/card games without supervision, just watching many games and being told who won, in 2018. ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by HonoreDB on 2017-12-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2019-05-20.
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BFR to launch before 2022. ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2017-11-27; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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SLS to be cancelled outright or to launch at least once before 2025. ( 87% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2017-11-27; known on 2025-01-01.
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Falcon Heavy to launch (whether or not successful) before June 15, 2018 ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2017-11-27; known on 2018-06-16; judged right by enolan on 2018-06-08.
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The 2017 TIME Person of the Year will be related to #MeToo, Harvey Weinstein, and/or the broader anti-sexual harassment movement. ( 45% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-11-26; known on 2017-12-07; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-12-06.
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Bitcoin will reach USD 10k before 31/12/2017 ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Leohmarruda on 2017-11-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Athrithalix on 2017-11-29.
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In 5 years programmers will be expected to write formally proven programs to the same or more extent as they're expected to write tests today ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jach on 2017-11-17; known on 2022-11-17; judged wrong by crabman on 2022-11-17.
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Blue Origin's New Glenn to enter commercial service by the end of 2021. ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-11-14; known on 2021-12-31; judged wrong by stepan on 2022-01-02.
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Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket to enter commercial service before the end of 2027 ( 90% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-11-14; known on 2027-12-31.
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Blue Planet II to reuse more footage without explicitly mentioning it. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-11-14; known on 2017-12-17; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-01-08.
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Software Engineer will become a protected term in California before 2028. ( 24% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2017-11-13; known on 2028-01-01.
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Hillary Clinton will be indicted for the sale of Uranium to Russia ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Gibs on 2017-11-12; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2018-07-02.
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We will go to war with North Korea ( 17% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Gibs on 2017-11-12; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by futurulus on 2018-07-01.
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(regular price) Petri-dish veal cheaper than (regular price) cow-produced veal at at least one large market chain(for example Amazon, WalMart, Superstore, etc) ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-11-02; known on 2018-12-31.
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ARCA Space will cancel development of its Haas 2C vehicle before the end of 2019. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-11-02; known on 2019-12-31.
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ARCA Space will fail to reach its goal of a flight in 2018. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-11-02; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-02-22.
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Rocket Labs 'Still Testing' Electron rocket launch will successfully deploy it's payloads in a stable orbit. ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-18; known on 2018-01-30; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-01-22.
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Apple will ship an iPhone with no ports before the end of 2020. ( 58% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jamesrom on 2017-11-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by davatk on 2021-01-01.
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>50% of the world population has to scan their eye(/iris) at least once per day ( 3% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-27; known on 2020-08-19; judged wrong by NickN on 2020-08-20.
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social movement with explicit reference to kyriarchy as a tenet commits mass murder (>10,000 people) ( 9% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-18; known on 2042-01-01.
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Openly atheist POTUS ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-06; known on 2036-12-31.
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The Guardian newspaper's obsession with sex robots will continue for the next two years at least. ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-03; known on 2019-10-03; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2019-11-15.
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Lockheed Martin's Mars lander concept (as presented at IAC 2017) will be abandoned without ever being built. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-03; known on 2026-01-01.
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Nintendo announces a new instalment in the Super Smash Bros franchise before the end of 2018. ( 15% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-03; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16.
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Nintendo announces Melee HD for Switch before end of 2018. ( 10% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-03; known on 2019-01-11; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-02-27.
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Boris Johnson will not be sacked over recent Brexit issues within the next year. ( 65% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-03; known on 2018-10-03; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-07-09.
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Nevada will pass no further gun control laws as a result of the October shooting. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-03; known on 2018-10-02; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-26.
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The SpaceX BFS to Mars missions will not stick to the schedule announced at IAC 2017. ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-03; known on 2022-10-01.
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SpaceX will delay the initial launch of the Falcon Heavy past the end of November ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-03; known on 2017-11-30; judged right by Athrithalix on 2017-11-02.
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Someone is jailed for building or selling child fembots(conversant, 'anatomically functional' robots capable of bipedal self directed movement that look like underage girls) ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-29; known on 2027-09-29.
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Twitter engages in purging/mass censorship of marxists, anarchists, feminists or hacktivists / “next year it's anarchists or hacktivists or feminists or Marxists”-@bob ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-18; known on 2018-08-18; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.
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Putin will be chosen as president in 2018 #research #politics_russia ( 86% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2018-03-19; judged right by timmartin on 2018-03-19.
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Russia compromised the integrity of the 2017 UK election process or either labour or conservatives found guilty of illegally colluding with russian government ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-08; known on 2018-06-07; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-06-07.
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Consumer-level “Trans cranial magnetic stimulation orgasmatron” (TMS device capable of producing orgasm ) hits the market ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-15; known on 2018-12-24; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-27.
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Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2018 ( 82% confidence; 52 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2017-03-31; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death. ( 6% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2017-03-17; known on 2037-03-17; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-09-08.
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SpaceX will fly a mission with crew around the moon by end of 2018. ( 29% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by trishume on 2017-02-28; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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NASA InSight is launched successfully ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-04; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.