Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 53% | 64% | 73% | 80% | 93% | 94% | |
Sample Size | 136 | 202 | 169 | 255 | 784 | 225 | 1771 |
Displaying all predictions made by Baeboo. Filter by:
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China >=$24.6 trillion GDP (constant 2000 dollars) in 2050 —HSBC ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.
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" I’m reasonably certain that [>1b pub library circulation] will also be true 35 years from now" ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-12; known on 2046-09-01.
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“Ten years from now, U.S. public libraries will circulate more than a billion print books each year” —Walt Crawford ( 81% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-12; known on 2021-09-01; judged right by stepan on 2021-09-12.
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The ITER fusion reactor will have first plasma by the end of 2022. ( 30% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-09; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen. ( 47% confidence; 23 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-03; known on 2041-01-01.
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the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. —S. Jay Olshansky ( 7% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-29; known on 2100-01-01.
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Integer factoring in polynomial time, revealed by 2020 —Dick Lipton ( 9% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
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Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ( 47% confidence; 22 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-09; known on 2050-01-01.
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Population of Perth will be double current number within 40 years ( 71% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by nam2001 on 2011-05-31; known on 2051-05-31.
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Computers will die out and Artificial Intelligence will take over by 2030 – http://www.smh.com.au/small-business/blogs/work-in-progress/internet-via-contact-lenses-as-computers-die-out-20110527-1f6t0.html ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Jessica Hartany on 2011-05-29; known on 2030-12-15.
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“Alzheimer's disease is fully curable” by 2037 ( 45% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-27; known on 2037-01-01.
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'Public smoking is banned across every US state' by 2021 ( 8% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-27; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
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'Ultra High Definition Television (4320p) is available in domestic homes ' by 2021 ( 33% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2021-01-01.
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'The International Space Station is decommissioned' by 2029 ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2029-01-01.
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'The cost per watt of solar PV has dropped to below $1' by 2027 ( 53% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2027-01-01.
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Final Gerald F. Ford-class carrier launched by 2040. ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2040-01-01.
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“Chicago will feel more like Baton Rouge than a Northern metropolis before the end of this century.” ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-05-23; known on 2099-12-31.
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'. The Dead Sea Scrolls managed to survive by remaining lost for a couple millennia. Now that they've been located and preserved in a museum, they're probably doomed. I give them two centuries – tops.' —Danny Hillis ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-22; known on 2195-02-16.
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There will be crossover of athletes from the paralympics to the Olympics in the 2020 games. ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-20; known on 2020-01-16; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2021-12-29.
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World record for marathon <2 hours —François Péronnet ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-17; known on 2029-01-01.
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The Sl4.org email archives will not be publicly available as text/HTML at sl4.org by 2030. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-11; known on 2030-01-01.
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Rich Sutton: AI by 'roughly 2030' ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-10; known on 2031-01-01.
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I will be awesome in 20 years. ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by zwsaz1 on 2011-03-22; known on 2031-03-22.
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Australia will no longer be part of the Commonwealth by 2020 ( 19% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by DavidPercival on 2011-03-17; known on 2020-01-16; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-17.
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Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020. ( 12% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2020-01-01.
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User:Clippy will donate 50k to SIAI and User:Kevin will create 10^20kg of paperclips. ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-03-10; known on 2060-01-01.
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'bitcoins will be unobtainable or obtainable for less than 1 cents (2010 dollars)/btc on 24 February 2021' —ivan ( 45% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-24; known on 2021-02-25; judged wrong by gwern on 2021-02-25.
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http://www.longbets.org/601 will be a broken link in 11 years —Jeremy Keith ( 13% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-19; known on 2022-02-18; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-18.
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Chocolate a rare luxury by 2032. ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-25; known on 2032-01-01.
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EU to dissolve by 2040. ( 39% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-25; known on 2040-01-01.
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“By 2050, less than 20% of the United States will attend church on a regular basis (at least 3 times a month)” —Alex M ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-19; known on 2050-01-01.
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“In 2035, there is thus a good prospect that Britain will be the most populous (our birth rate will be one the highest in Europe), dynamic and richest European country…” —Will Hutton ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2035-01-01.
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The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030. ( 16% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PatrickAchtelik on 2010-11-24; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by muflax on 2010-12-12.
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Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022 ( 6% confidence; 20 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by raavin on 2010-11-18; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-12-31.
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Computers have made paper books and documents almost completely obsolete by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 16% confidence; 17 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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The United States of Africa is established by 2026 ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-11; known on 2027-01-01.
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“China's current regime will be overthrown or reformed (another political Party come into power) before 2020” ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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By 2050 most computer hardware will no longer be binary. ( 18% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-10-31; known on 2050-01-01.
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'Africa and the Middle East are linked by a transcontinental bridge' by 2025 ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-29; known on 2026-01-01.
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'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 1% confidence; 26 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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'Gorillas are extinct in Central Africa' by 2023 ( 22% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2024-01-01.
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There will be at least 1 wide-scale (>100 rioters) racial riot in South Korea in the 2020s. ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-24; known on 2030-01-01.
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'Complete organ replacements grown from stem cells' in 2020 ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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'Sweden becomes the first oil-free country' by 2021 ( 24% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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'Holographic TV is mainstream' in 2020 ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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'Texting by thinking' in 2020 ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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'Internet use reaches 5 billion worldwide' in 2020 ( 71% confidence; 10 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-03.
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“Global oil demand exceeds 100m barrels per day” in 2019 ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-02-09.
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the Large Aral Sea gone in 2019 ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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“Automated freight transport” widespread by 2030s ( 84% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-19; known on 2040-01-01.
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“Bionic eyes are commercially available” in 2019 ( 22% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-01-01.
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“The ITER experimental fusion reactor is switched on” in 2019 ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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“Acute spinal injuries are fully treatable” in 2019 ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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By 2100 it's obvious to the average human that (1) Global warming is true and (2) it's actually a good thing: Resulting in a better climate then we have had in recorded history. A stable Wet-Sahara/Warm-Siberia/No Rainforest scenario. ( 48% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-10-17; known on 2100-01-01.
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The Betelgeuse star will be observed to die within 60 years ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2010-10-14; known on 2070-12-31.
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Google's WebP image format will be unsuccessful. ( 92% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-30; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2022-06-22.
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Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence. ( 11% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-09-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by jasticE on 2020-02-01.
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“Within ten years there will be another $200 billion+ Wall Street Bailout” —James Miller ( 40% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
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“Within ten years the U.S. repudiates its debt either officially or with an inflation rate of over 100% for one year” —James Miller ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
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“Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs.” —James Miller ( 9% confidence; 20 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
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“Within ten years either genetic manipulation or embryo selection will have been used on at least 50% of Chinese babies to increase the babies’ expected intelligence” —James Miller ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
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“Within ten years either genetic manipulation or embryo selection will have been used on at least 10,000 babies in China to increase the babies’ expected intelligence” —James Miller ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
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US helium production will crash to near-zero in 25 years. —Robert Richardson ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2035-01-01.
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“By 2020 open elections are held for the Iranian presidency (no significant factions excluded from participation)” —Jack ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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“By 2020, an Earth-like habitable extrasolar planet is detected.” —Kevin ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-07.
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A general-purpose artificial intelligence comparable to or better than a human will not have been developed by the beginning of 2020. ( 82% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Richard_Kennaway on 2010-08-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by MultiplyByZer0 on 2020-06-12.
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“I am 99% confident that AGI [AI] comparable to or better than a human, friendly or otherwise, will not be developed in the next ten years.” —Richard Kennaway ( 96% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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Food will be commercially synthesized from chemical stocks like coal or atmospheric nitrogen. —J.B.S. Haldane ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-18; known on 2043-01-01.
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“in the year 2020, we're not even close to the kind of disaster you describe – a convergence of three disasters: global currency collapse, significant warfare between rich and poor, and environmental disasters of some significant size. We won't even be cl ( 87% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-18; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.
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“energy consumption will grow on a par or less than population growth.” —W.H. Pearson ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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“Somewhere before 2050 abortion on request and/or for socio-economic factors will be illegal worldwide.” ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.
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“The nation with the highest (nominal) gdp in the world in 2025 will be China.” ( 63% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-12-31.
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“The End of Wheels: A country or state will ban the use of wheeled vehicles by private consumers on high capacity public roads.” ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.
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“advances in personal aviation will cause the cost of land in big sur, ca and other remote areas within 250mi of major metropolitan cities to at least triple within the next 15 years – outperforming the s&p 500 over that period.” ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2023-01-01.
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“By 2025, The Aether Physics Model will not have replaced quantum physics and the theory of relativity as the standard model.” ( 99% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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“By 2025, Stellar nucleosynthesis will no longer be considered as the main source of heat and light of stars by a majority of scientists.” ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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“By 2025, The giant impact hypothesis will no longer be the dominant scientific hypothesis for the formation of the Moon.” ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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“By 2025, Quantum field theory will no longer be part of The Standard Model of particle physics.” ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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“By 2025, Albert Einstein's theory of relativity will be considered an untenable explanation for light and gravity by a majority of scientists.” ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant — a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid — anywhere in the world.” ( 38% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-12-31.
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“By 2025, new astronomical observations and theories will render the Big Bang an untenable explanation for the origin of the Universe.” ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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“I predict that THE HUMAN KNOWLEDGE MINDMAP will become the globally dominant knowledge paradigm by the year 2100.” ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2100-01-01.
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“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.” ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2040-01-01.
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“On or before 8 June 2030, there will exist a computer language or programming system in which the prototypical first program, traditionally called “Hello, world!”, will have an executable file whose size exceeds 1 gigabyte.” ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2030-06-08.
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“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.” ( 35% confidence; 23 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2035-01-01.
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“Roe v. Wade will not celebrate a 50th anniversary.” ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2023-12-31.
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“Self-replicating manufacturing machines will be commonplace by 2020.” ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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“Patents will be abolished by at least two leading economies within the next 20 years for all areas except pharmaceuticals.” ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2023-12-31.
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“By 2061 science and technology will meet all the essential requirements for interstellar space travel based on the embryo space colonization concept; the core element of this prediction is the cryopreservation of human embryos allowing them to survive fo ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2061-01-01.
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China will land a man on Mars by 2050. ( 43% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.
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“That the average level of innovation between 2025 and 2035 exceeds the average level of innovation of the past 5 years (2002-2007.) I suggest using metrics as determined and published by the US Dept of Commerce, Economics & Statistics Administration as d ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2036-01-01.
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“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.” ( 41% confidence; 28 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.
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“China will break apart by 2030” ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2030-01-01.
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“By 2020, historians will agree that the the start of the 21st century also marked the beginning of the “Second” or “New Renaissance.”” ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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“By 2025, more than 50% of desktop computers in the world will be running an open-source operating system.” ( 52% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2025-01-01.
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“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.” ( 11% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2030-01-01.
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“By 2040, at least 40% of Americans making to age 65 will live to age 100.” ( 43% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2040-01-01.
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“By the end of 2024 there will be a Single Global Currency managed by a Global Central Bank within a Global Monetary Union.(3-G's) This currency will be legal tender in countries which comprise at least 51% of the world's GDP.” ( 7% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2024-12-31.
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“I predict that we will be in a full fledged ice age by 2100. I predict that before that we will see volcanic activity that produces more CO2, irridium, and CH4 than mankind could imagine. We will have massive increases in snowfall and sea level first, fo ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2100-01-01.
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“In other words, I predict that the actual warming of the lower troposphere from 1990 to 2100, as measured by satellites, will be less than 1.94 degrees Celsius.” ( 34% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2101-12-31.