Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 100% | 50% | 54% | 57% | 75% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 2 | 2 | 13 | 23 | 16 | 6 | 62 |
Displaying all predictions made by michaelchen. Filter by:
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I will complete at least six Pomodori on Wednesday, March 9 by 10:30pm EST on non-EA tasks ( 80% confidence )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-03-09; known on 2022-03-10.
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I will pray at least five times on Wednesday, March 9, with each of the five prayers spaced at least 30 minutes apart ( 95% confidence )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-03-09; known on 2022-03-10; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-03-12.
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I will go to bed by 11pm EST on Wednesday, March 9 ( 95% confidence )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-03-09; known on 2022-03-10; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-03-12.
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I will complete at least six Pomodori on Tuesday, March 8 by 10pm EST on non-EA tasks ( 80% confidence )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-03-08; known on 2022-03-10; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-03-09.
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I will exercise for at least 30 min by 9pm EST on Wednesday, March 9 ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-03-09; known on 2022-03-10; judged wrong by God on 2022-04-01.
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I will exercise for at least 30 min by 9pm EST on Tuesday, March 8 ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-03-08; known on 2022-03-09; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-03-09.
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I will go to bed by 11pm EST on Tuesday, March 8 ( 95% confidence )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-03-08; known on 2022-03-09; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-03-09.
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I will pray at least five times on Tuesday, March 8, with each of the five prayers spaced at least 30 minutes apart ( 95% confidence )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-03-08; known on 2022-03-09; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-03-09.
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I will complete at least eight Pomodori on Thursday, February 24 by 10pm EST on non-EA tasks, at least two of which are completed by 1pm EST ( 75% confidence )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-02-25; judged wrong by michaelchen on 2022-02-25.
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I will pray at least five times on Thursday, February 24, with each of the five prayers spaced at least 30 minutes apart ( 90% confidence )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-02-25; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-25.
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I will go to bed by 11pm EST on Thursday, February 24 ( 90% confidence )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-02-25; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-25.
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I will show up to ethics class on time on Thursday, February 24 (and arrive by 3:30pm EST) ( 90% confidence )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-02-25; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-25.
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I will complete at least eight Pomodori on Thursday, February 24 by 9pm EST on non-EA tasks, at least two of which are completed by 12pm EST ( 80% confidence )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-02-25; judged wrong by michaelchen on 2022-02-24.
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I will do two legit Pomodori by 2pm EST on Wednesday, February 23 ( 95% confidence )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-23; known on 2022-02-24; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-24.
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I will exercise for at least 30 min in the CRC by 9pm EST on Wednesday, February 23 ( 85% confidence )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-23; known on 2022-02-23; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-24.
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I will finish at least eight legit Pomodori working on my NLP project on Wednesday, February 23 by 9pm EST, at least two of which are completed by 1pm EST ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-23; known on 2022-02-24.
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I will pray at least five times on Wednesday, February 23 (EST) ( 100% confidence )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-23; known on 2022-02-24; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-24.
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I will pray at least five times on Tuesday, February 22 ( 100% confidence )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-22; known on 2022-02-23; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-23.
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I will get back to G by 9pm EST on Friday, February 25 ( 75% confidence )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-22; known on 2022-02-26; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-26.
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No board member will facilitate the EA @ GT lunch on Tuesday, February 22 ( 60% confidence )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-22; known on 2022-02-23; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-22.
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I will respond to ᒉᐦᔅᐦᑎᓐ by 8pm EST on February 22, 2022 ( 90% confidence )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-22; known on 2022-02-23; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-23.
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I will finish at least eight legit Pomodori working on my NLP project on Tuesday, February 22 by 9pm EST, at least two of which are completed by 1pm EST ( 88% confidence )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-22; known on 2022-02-23; judged wrong by michaelchen on 2022-02-23.
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I will spend at least two Pomodori on ML interview prep before 1pm on Thursday, February 17 ( 100% confidence )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-17; known on 2022-02-18; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-18.
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I will spend at least two Pomodori on ML interview prep before 1pm on Wednesday, February 16, and at least 10 Pomodori in total by 10pm ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-16; known on 2022-05-17; judged wrong by michaelchen on 2022-02-17.
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Politics, US – Supreme Court rule in favor of the State of Mississippi Department of Health in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, thereby colloquially, “Overturning Roe v. Wade” ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-16; known on 2022-05-19; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-07-01.
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Politics, US – Carrick Flynn wins the Democratic primary for Oregon's 6th District ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-16; known on 2022-05-18; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-26.
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EA – 80k jobs board bot is finished by Mar 1 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-15; known on 2022-03-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-03-02.
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I will spend at least five hours on ML interview prep on Tuesday, February 15 by 11pm EST ( 85% confidence )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-15; known on 2022-02-16; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-16.
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I will spend at least four hours on February 12, 2021 (EST) on studying machine learning ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-12; known on 2022-02-13; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-15.
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The USA military will use force to remove or help remove the USA government (troops in the streets or the capitol or some other institutions). ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sortega on 2022-02-10; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-01-01.
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The USA government will be removed before the end of 2022 (according to Wikipedia). ( 5% confidence; 18 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sortega on 2022-02-10; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2023-01-01.
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I will exercise and study ML for at least 30 minutes on February 2 by 9pm EST ( 100% confidence )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-02; known on 2022-02-03; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-03.
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I will get into a debate with a close friend about having kids and fighting climate change ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by _galvo_ on 2022-01-17; known on 2022-02-27; judged wrong by God on 2022-04-27.
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New lettered variant of covid announced by February 20th, 2022. ( 21% confidence; 20 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-16; known on 2022-03-05; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-12-05.
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At least 120 people will apply for Effective Altruism @ GT's Spring 2022 seminar programs ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-01-13; known on 2022-02-05; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-12-05.
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Georgia Tech wins its basketball game against UNC on Saturday, January 15 ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-01-13; known on 2022-01-16; judged wrong by michaelchen on 2022-01-16.
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All Georgia Tech students will be asked to go home before the end of the semester ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-01-13; known on 2022-05-15; judged wrong by michaelchen on 2022-05-15.
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At least 60 people will apply for Effective Altruism @ GT's Spring 2022 seminar programs ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-01-13; known on 2022-02-05; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-01-24.
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At least one Effective Altruism @ GT board member will get COVID-19 during the Spring 2022 semester ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-01-13; known on 2022-05-15; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-01-16.
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In-person learning at Emory will resume on January 31 ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-01-13; known on 2022-02-02; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-02.
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All Georgia Tech classes go remote during the Spring 2022 semester ( 19% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-01-13; known on 2022-05-15.
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People will need a 2nd vaccine booster shot within 4 months of receiving their first booster shot. #secondbooster #vaccineboosters ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by julietierney14 on 2021-12-28; known on 2022-01-28; judged wrong by michaelchen on 2022-02-22.
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The Singularity will occur by 2050. ( 34% confidence; 27 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by michaelanissimov on 2011-11-15; known on 2050-01-01.
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A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040. ( 68% confidence; 46 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by rwallace on 2009-10-14; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by freyley on 2009-10-21.