Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 46% | 64% | 63% | 73% | 88% | 98% | |
Sample Size | 93 | 90 | 144 | 143 | 508 | 165 | 1143 |
Displaying all predictions made by Bruno Parga. Filter by:
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 17 ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-08.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 16 ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-08.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 15 ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-07.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 14 ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-07.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 13 ( 11% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-06.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 12 ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 11 ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] 10 or fewer ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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[Scottish independence referendum to have been formally announced & scheduled, conditional on] UK out of EU ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2020-03-15; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-16.
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[Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4500 ( 25% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-10-27; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4400 ( 43% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-10-27; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4300 ( 68% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-10-27; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4200 ( 81% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-10-27; judged right by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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Turkey to have announced withdrawal from NATO ( 15% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-29; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-29.
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[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] any other candidate ( 7% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Julian Castro ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Beto O'Rourke ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Amy Klobuchar ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Cory Booker ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Pete Buttigieg ( 8% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Kamala Harris ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Andrew Yang ( 4% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Bernie Sanders ( 20% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Elizabeth Warren ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Joe Biden ( 41% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04; judged right by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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[Politics: According to PredictIt's most recent 10 days of data, the number of Democratic candidates priced above $0.05 is] 7 ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to PredictIt's most recent 10 days of data, the number of Democratic candidates priced above $0.05 is] 6 ( 21% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to PredictIt's most recent 10 days of data, the number of Democratic candidates priced above $0.05 is] 5 ( 26% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to PredictIt's most recent 10 days of data, the number of Democratic candidates priced above $0.05 is] 4 ( 23% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to PredictIt's most recent 10 days of data, the number of Democratic candidates priced above $0.05 is] 3 ( 19% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to PredictIt's most recent 10 days of data, the number of Democratic candidates priced above $0.05 is] 2 ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] the UK to have held a general election ( 19% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-04.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] a second Brexit referendum to be formally announced ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-04.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] a second Brexit referendum to have been held ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-04.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Article 50 to have been extended ( 58% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-11-04.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] “Brexit with a deal” to have happened ( 7% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-04.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] “no-deal Brexit” to have happened ( 18% confidence; 20 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-11-05.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] the UK to not be a member of the European Union ( 27% confidence; 14 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-04.
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The Riemann Hypothesis will be proven before 2031 ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-20; known on 2031-01-01.
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Kamala Harris will be the Democratic nominee ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by SeriousPod on 2019-07-12; known on 2020-03-18; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-03-19.
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Eliud Kipchoge's October 2019 “Ineos 1:59 Challenge” marathon time will be less than 2:00:00 ( 56% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-07-04; known on 2019-10-12; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-10-12.
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If Joe Biden wins the 2020 democratic bid for president then Donald Trump will win the 2020 election. ( 50% confidence; 29 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by jprettner on 2019-06-28; known on 2019-08-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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Fed cut rate at least 25bps in July ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by objclone on 2019-06-18; known on 2019-07-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-08-11.
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Fed cut rate at least 50bps by end of 2019 ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by objclone on 2019-06-18; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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The Brexit Party to win the most seats in the next UK General Election ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-06-02; known on 2022-05-06; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-25.
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[Politics] Iran and US to establish formal diplomatic relations by May 2020 EOM ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-05.
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No new NK nuclear weapon tests in 2019 ( 70% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Coagulopath on 2019-02-13; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.
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Kosovo has <117 diplomatic recognitions ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-02-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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No new states adopt the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-02-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by amadeu on 2019-03-18.
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Any UN member state to recognize Taiwan or ROC in 2019 ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-31; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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The Yellow Jackets are still active and present in media in March ( 64% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Osuniev on 2019-01-27; known on 2019-03-16; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-03-17.
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“Nothing more embarassing than Vigano memo happens to Pope Francis” ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-04-09.
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“May still in power” ( 38% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2019-08-31.
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“MbS still in power” ( 92% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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“Xi still in power” ( 96% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Emperor Akihito to abdicate as scheduled on 2019-04-30 ( 93% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-21; known on 2019-05-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-30.
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Trump will remain president as of January 1st, 2020 ( 89% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Selentelechia on 2019-01-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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[Politics] Either Juan Guaidó or Nicolás Maduro to flee Venezuela in 2019 Q1. ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-15; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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[Politics] Nicolás Maduro to resign as president of Venezuela in 2019 Q1. ( 9% confidence; 15 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-15; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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[Fighting] Cain Velasquez to beat Francis Ngannou at UFC on ESPN 1 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-14; known on 2019-02-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-18.
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[[Fighting] At UFC 235, ] Jon Jones to beat Anthony Smith ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-14; known on 2019-03-03; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-03-03.
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[[Fighting] At UFC 235, ] Ben Askren to beat Robbie Lawler ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-14; known on 2019-03-03; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-03-03.
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[[Fighting] At UFC 235, ] Tyron Woodley to beat Kamaru Usman ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-14; known on 2019-03-03; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-03-03.
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North Korea to test a nuclear weapon in 2019 ( 26% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-11; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Same-sex marriage to be legalized in at least one more EU member in 2019. ( 29% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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South Korea to sign a peace treaty with North Korea in 2019. ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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[I (Bruno Parga) have been a major contributor to at least this many new features on Predictionbook] 3+ ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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[I (Bruno Parga) have been a major contributor to at least this many new features on Predictionbook] 2 ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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[I (Bruno Parga) have been a major contributor to at least this many new features on Predictionbook] 1 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-11.
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[My predominant keyboard layout is] Colemak ( 40% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01.
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[My predominant keyboard layout is] QWERTY ( 45% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01.
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[My predominant keyboard layout is] Dvorak ( 4% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01.
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[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] strongly positive ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-01-01.
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[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] moderately positive ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-01-01.
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[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] mildly positive ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-01-01.
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[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] neutral/meh/don't care/his government didn't last long enough for me to have an opinion ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-01-01.
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[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] mildly negative ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-01-01.
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[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] moderately negative ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2023-01-01.
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[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] strongly negative ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-01-01.
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The Belgian federal government formation takes at least three months from the date of the election ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-09-11; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-09-11.
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The African National Congress wins the South African presidential elections ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-09-11; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-01.
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The Taliban control most of Afghanistan including Kabul ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Mauricio Macri is re-elected President of Argentina ( 44% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-12-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-11-03.
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The Chavista regime rules Venezuela ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Bulgaria has applied to join ERM-II (a prerequisite for adopting the euro) ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] strongly positive ( 1% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] moderately positive ( 4% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] neutral/meh/don't care/his government didn't last long enough for me to have an opinion ( 25% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] mildly negative ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] moderately negative ( 15% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] strongly negative ( 10% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] mildly positive ( 15% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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[Personal: I exercise at least this many days in the first quarter:] 40 ( 90% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-04-01.
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[Personal: I exercise at least this many days in the first quarter:] 45 ( 85% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-04-01.
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[Personal: I exercise at least this many days in the first quarter:] 50 ( 80% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-04-01.
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[Personal: I exercise at least this many days in the first quarter:] 55 ( 75% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-04-01.
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[Personal: I exercise at least this many days in the first quarter:] 60 ( 70% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-04-01.
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[Personal: I exercise at least this many days in the first quarter:] 65 ( 50% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-04-01.
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[Personal: I exercise at least this many days in the first quarter:] 70 ( 1% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-04-01.
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[Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year:] 85 ( 90% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-01.