Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 100% | 0% | 0% | 75% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
Displaying all predictions made by fiftytwo. Filter by:
-
Conservatives will win the general election. ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by neilscott on 2017-05-01; known on 2017-06-08; judged wrong by neilscott on 2018-01-29.
-
There will a hung parliament as a result of the current UK general election ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ikmacbeth on 2017-05-23; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by ikmacbeth on 2017-06-09.
-
The UK Liberal Democratic party will gain seats as a result of the general election on 8th June ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2017-04-18; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by penten on 2017-06-09.
-
At least one country will make producing animal meat products within its borders illegal by 2075 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by dvolk on 2015-01-02; known on 2075-01-01.
-
Scott Aaronson will not make a “tearful apology” for either Comment 171 or for any related remarks that he has made as of 9 AM December 31. ( 78% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-31; known on 2015-01-25; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-25.
-
By January 1, 2019 War between North Korea and at least one of the US, Britain, China, Japan, South Korea, or the collapse of the North Korean government. ( 25% confidence; 15 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-19; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
There will be a death from Ebola in the UK by January ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-01-16; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-05.
-
Scott Alexander will join Tumblr ( 50% confidence )
Created by fiftytwo on 2014-01-26; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by fiftytwo on 2015-01-02.
-
Assad will remain in power in Syria until end of 2012. ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by fiftytwo on 2012-12-04; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.
-
Current Syrian regime to fall by January 1, 2013 ( 35% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2013-01-01.