Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 43% | 63% | 71% | 83% | 93% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 373 | 575 | 496 | 412 | 690 | 110 | 2656 |
Displaying all predictions made by gwern. Filter by:
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“3D printing” will be a multi-billion dollar industry by 2021. ( 71% confidence; 14 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-14.
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By 2025, more motor vehicle engines will be manufactured using “3D printing” technology than by any conventional manufacturing process. ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2025-01-01.
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By 2112, deep sea exploration will reveal a hitherto unknown species of living trilobite. ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2112-01-01.
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By November 2015, Howard Dean will form an exploratory committee to float his name for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination. ( 30% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2015-11-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-01.
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A third-party or independent candidate running to the right of the Republican nominee will garner at least 1% of the vote in at least one state in the 2012 U.S. presidential election. ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-07.
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Synthetic meat will be mass-marketed by 2020. ( 26% confidence; 15 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025. ( 41% confidence; 10 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2025-01-01.
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The technology to render a human effectively invisible (i.e. apparently transparent) to the eye at a distance of less than 100 meters will be publicly demonstrated by 2020. ( 46% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ( 8% confidence; 31 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2035-01-01.
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Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ( 26% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2025-01-01.
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The United States drug scheduling system will be dramatically revised by 2025. ( 27% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2025-01-01.
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Herman Cain’s actual vote share in the 2012 Republican primaries will be significantly lower than his averaged national poll numbers at the time (as indicated by standard measures of statistical significance). ( 73% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2012-08-30; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-08.
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I will re-subscribe to Netflix at any point before 2013 ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-11-11; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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Iran will successfully launch a monkey into space by the end of 2012. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.
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Barack Obama will win Ohio's electoral votes in the 2012 election. ( 54% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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At least one self-described “anarchist” will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021. ( 36% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
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Members of the U.S. House of Representatives will form an “Occupy Caucus” with at least five members within a year after the 2012 elections. ( 27% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2013-11-06; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-06.
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Clear biomarkers will be detected in the atmosphere of more than one “Super Earth” exoplanet by Christmas, 2017. ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2017-12-26; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-12-26.
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Evidence of extraterrestrial life will be discovered by 2017. ( 11% confidence; 18 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-02; known on 2017-01-01.
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China will forgive US debt in exchange for the ending of US-Taiwan defense treaties by or during 2015 ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-11; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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PragmataPro open-sourcing campaign will reach its $220,000 goal ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-11-11; known on 2012-01-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.
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I will have read Godel, Escher, Bach by 18th November. ( 21% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-11; known on 2011-11-18; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-17.
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1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035 ( 41% confidence; 13 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by amcknight on 2011-11-11; known on 2036-01-01.
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German Pirate Party to enter Bundestag in next election. ( 65% confidence; 9 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-11-11; known on 2013-10-27; judged wrong by mfb on 2013-09-22.
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GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1005: Will Daniel Ortega win another term as President of Nicaragua during the late 2011 elections? ( 65% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-12-30; judged right by gwern on 2011-11-10.
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I will still be alive in 2013. ( 99% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-11-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by chemotaxis101 on 2014-02-22.
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I will make a prediction on PB in 2012. ( 87% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by muflax on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2012-01-02.
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Sister Y still alive in 2013. ( 93% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-11-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.
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cousin_it will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Wei Dai will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-01-01.
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Anna Salamon will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-09.
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wedrifid will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-31.
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Phil Goetz will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2012-03-25.
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Alicorn will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-01-01.
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Yvain will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2012-10-21.
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Luke Muehlhauser will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 32% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-11-12.
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Raymond Kurzweil will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-01-01.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Robin Hanson will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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In 2020, every single one of the 5 tallest buildings in the world will be located in China, Hong Kong, or Taiwan. ( 27% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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The prediction market intrade will still be open for business in 2020. ( 51% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2017-08-19.
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“Rupert Murdoch to announce departure as chairman of News Corporation before 2012” -ipredict ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.
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I will obtain Portuguese citizenship before 2015. ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-01-01.
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The unemployment rate in Singapore will not exceed 5% in 2012. ( 73% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.
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Stewart Alexis Alexander, of the Socialist Party USA, will receive less than 1% of the popular vote in the 2012 presidential election. ( 91% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-08.
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If Ron Paul runs as a third party candidate in the 2012 presidential election, then he will receive greater than 10% of the popular vote. ( 41% confidence; 10 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by ChristianKl on 2012-11-29.
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The weekly newspaper The Economist will be in continuous publication until at least 2043. ( 46% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2043-01-01.
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Before 2013, a new version of Chrome will be released with support for Side Tabs or vertical tabs, or there will be an equivalent or better extension that implements this functionality ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-03.
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'Will Palin, Trump, Bloomberg, Paul or Bachmann run as an Independent or 3rd party candidate?' —Intrade ( 23% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-09; known on 2012-11-02; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-10-31.
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“Silvio Berlusconi to announce his resignation before midnight ET 30 Nov 2011” —Intrade ( 67% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12.
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“Joe Paterno to announce his resignation before midnight ET 30 Nov 2011” —Intrade ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-11-10.
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D-Day Dice will become the top funded Tabletop game on Kickstarter by raising $82,000+ ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by richardbliss on 2011-11-07; known on 2011-12-08; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-08.
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As of 01-01-2013, according to the CIA World Factbook, none of the top 5 GDP per capita (PPP) countries will contain the word “democracy” or “democratic” in their government type variable. ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-01-01.
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Hypothes.is kickstarter project gets fully funded (see http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/dwhly/1239089754) ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-11-06; known on 2011-11-13; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-13.
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“The Google Lunar X Prize to be won on/before 31 Dec 2012.” -intrade ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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lukeprog will receive <50 individual items of feedback through his form in the next month. ( 66% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-05; known on 2011-12-05; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-05.
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The US will have >4% yearly GDP growth, for more than 2 quarters, by Dec 31, 2014. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by annis on 2011-11-05; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.
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The Baltimore Ravens will lose to the Pittsburgh Steelers on 2011-11-06. ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by hackedtobits on 2011-11-04; known on 2011-11-07; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2011-11-07.
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Either Mitt Romney or Barack Obama will win the 2012 Presidential election. ( 91% confidence; 29 wagers )
Created by HonoreDB on 2011-11-04; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.
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AAPL share prices will reach $500 before July 2012 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sucrenoir on 2011-11-04; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by sucrenoir on 2012-07-02.
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Google+ will surpass Facebook in 2013 (in number of users and level of interaction) ( 16% confidence; 27 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by sameganegie on 2011-11-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2014-01-01.
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Groupon will be delisted in 2015. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Joe Craig on 2011-11-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-07.
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United States Facebook user base will fall under 100,000,000 users by December 31, 2013. ( 28% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Joe Craig on 2011-11-04; known on 2012-12-16; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-02-24.
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Gold will be $2000 by Jan 2012 ( 45% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by eduffy on 2011-11-03; known on 2012-01-16; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-16.
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'I predict that the chance that a major episode of violence will break out in the next decade—a conflict with 100,000 deaths in a year, or a million deaths overall—is 9.7 percent' —Steven Pinker ( 51% confidence; 12 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-03; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-01-01.
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Obama gets reelected and during that time Hillary Clinton brokers the middle east peace deal between Israel and Palestine for the two state solution. This secures her presidency in 2016. ( 9% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by lionflower on 2011-11-02; known on 2014-09-09; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2014-09-09.
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President Barak Obama will be re-elected, the Democrats will retain the Senate, and retake the House of Representatives. This will not prevent a great deal of obstructionism to anything he wants to get passed, particularly in the Senate. ( 30% confidence; 18 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by MuscleCBT on 2011-11-02; known on 2012-11-11; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.
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GJP: #1029 Will any of the 20 jailed Bahraini medical workers be released by 1 November 2011? ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-11-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-02.
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GJP: #1020 Will peace talks between Israel and Palestine formally resume at some point between 3 October 2011 and 1 November 2011? ( 25% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-11-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-02.
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My Introduction to Java deck will be the most downloaded Anki deck containing the word “Java” on 03-01-2012. ( 66% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-02; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-03-03.
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GJP: #1031 Will the U.S. Congress pass a joint resolution of disapproval in October 2011 concerning the proposed $5+ billion F-16 fleet upgrade deal with Taiwan? ( 30% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-11-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-01.
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GJP: #1030 Will the UN Security Council pass a measure/resolution concerning Syria in October 2011? ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-11-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-01.
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Next 3 Turing Award winners will be a subset of Shor/Herlihy/Stallman/Szegedy/Dally —kenjackson ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-31; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2014-01-01.
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A complete functional simulation of the C. elegans nervous system will exist on 2020-01-01; 99.8% —David Dalrymple ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-31; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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A complete functional simulation of the C. elegans nervous system will exist on 2014-06-08; 76% —David Dalrymple ( 24% confidence; 9 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-31; known on 2014-06-08; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-06-08.
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“Will Rick Perry to win a Republican primary/caucus in 2012? —Intrade” ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-31; known on 2012-08-27; judged wrong by nohat on 2012-08-21.
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There will be a continual presence on Mars of at least one person or probe either on the surface or in orbit until at least 2045 ( 50% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-31; known on 2045-01-01.
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I will read “Thinking, Fast and Slow” by Daniel Kahneman within the next 4 weeks. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-28; known on 2011-11-25; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-27.
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“Image recorded by NASA Curiosity on Mars surface to be published in 2012” -ipredict ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-27; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-21.
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Owen will post an article about Direct Instruction on LW this year. ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-31.
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At least one of my two Samsung HDDs will fail before 2013. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2014-01-01.
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LW: Rationality Boot Camp will be declared a success and will have solid long-term data to back it up. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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LW: Rationality Boot Camp will be declared a success. ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Luke will finish his meta-ethics sequence on LW in 2012. ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-01-01.
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Non-Japanese customers will be allowed to buy e-books in the Japanese Kindle store. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-10-25.
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Amazon opens Japanese Kindle store in 2012. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2012-10-25.
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Amazon opens Japanese Kindle store in 2011. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-31.
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“Focus Fusion process to generate net power before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2014” -intrade ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-26; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Serge on 2015-03-30.
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“iPad 3 to be formally announced in January 2012” -ipredict ( 9% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-26; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by faws on 2012-02-01.
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“Normal service on the Maui Pipeline to resume on 28 October 2011” -ipredict ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-26; known on 2011-10-29; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-31.
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By October 24, 2012 brazil84 will update his estimate that Amanda Knox was guilty to below 50% and declare that he has so updated on Less Wrong. ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-25; known on 2012-10-24; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-10-24.
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Dutch house prices as reported by cbs.nl will have fallen more than 3% year on year by September 2012 ( 72% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2011-10-24; known on 2012-10-31; judged right by dhoe on 2012-10-24.
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In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug ( 9% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Konkvistador on 2011-10-24; known on 2039-01-01.
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Before 2012, the United States will lose its triple-A credit rating from Moody's or Fitch (or both) ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-23; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.
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econstudentlog.wordpress.com or its successor will cease to be updated ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-23; known on 2021-10-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2021-10-23.
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Occupy Wall Street (NYC) will continue at least 30 more days. ( 79% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by torekp on 2011-10-23; known on 2011-11-23; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-23.
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LoZ: Skyward Sword will receive an IGN score of 9.8/10 or higher ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jach on 2011-10-23; known on 2011-11-25; judged right by kpreid on 2011-11-13.
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I will be using PredictionBook for personal productivity goals at least weekly for a month. ( 61% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by divad12 on 2011-10-23; known on 2011-11-23; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-11-24.
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Conditional on nuclear weapons being used, the target will be within Japan. ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-22; known on 2050-01-01.