Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 47% | 56% | 62% | 81% | 93% | 97% | |
Sample Size | 180 | 158 | 278 | 220 | 320 | 36 | 1192 |
Displaying all predictions made by EloiseRosen. Filter by:
-
Sam will be a vegan at the end of the year. ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
-
Sam will be a vegetarian or a pescetarian at the end of the year. ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
-
I will be a vegan at the end of the year. ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
-
I will be a vegetarian or pescetarian at the end of the year. ( 92% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
-
B will accept my friend request. ( 70% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-01-15; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-04.
-
Vladimir Putin will be president of Russia as of 1st January 2016 ( 91% confidence; 18 wagers )
Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by btrettel on 2016-01-01.
-
At the end of the year, AMF will still be a GiveWell recommended charity. ( 78% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
-
At the end of the year, GiveDirectly will still be a GiveWell recommended charity. ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
-
Before Dec 31, 2015 Sam will post more than 25 blog posts. ( 15% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
-
Before Dec 31, 2015 Sam will post at least 12 blog posts. ( 70% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
-
Before Dec 31, 2015 Sam will post at least 5 blog posts. ( 90% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-29.
-
Before Dec 31, 2015 I will post more than 25 blog posts. ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
-
Before Dec 31, 2015 I will post at least 12 blog posts. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
-
Before Dec 31, 2015 I will post at least 5 blog posts. ( 95% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-28.
-
On Dec 31, 2015, the price of regular gas at my local gas station will be > $3.50 ( 15% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
-
On Dec 31, 2015, the price of regular gas at my local gas station will be > $3.10 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
-
Scott Aaronson will not make a “tearful apology” for either Comment 171 or for any related remarks that he has made as of 9 AM December 31. ( 78% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-31; known on 2015-01-25; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-25.
-
By January 1, 2019 War between North Korea and at least one of the US, Britain, China, Japan, South Korea, or the collapse of the North Korean government. ( 25% confidence; 15 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-19; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
Ebola has killed fewer than 1000 people in the US or Canada by November 2015 ( 95% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by LogicalOxymoron on 2014-11-22; known on 2015-11-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-11-01.
-
I won't convert to Christianity within the next year ( 99% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-08; known on 2015-10-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16.
-
Hillary Clinton will not become the next president of the USA ( 70% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by truerepublican on 2014-10-18; known on 2016-11-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
-
Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project. ( 1% confidence; 27 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-08-12; known on 2024-08-12.
-
I will not become paraplegic or otherwise significantly paralyzed within the next year. ( 98% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-03; known on 2015-08-03; judged right by Ham Nox on 2015-08-03.
-
Facebook will be the most popular social network (by montly unique visitors) at the end of 2034. ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2014-04-28; known on 2035-01-01.
-
Princeton researchers: Facebook will lose 80% of its users by end of 2017 ( 15% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2014-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Mati on 2017-12-31.
-
Within five years, Pope Francis (or a successor) makes a comment in an official or unofficial capacity that there is no literal hell. ( 11% confidence; 21 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by adbge on 2014-01-07; known on 2019-01-07; judged right by Osuniev on 2019-01-27.
-
A virtual reality headset (Oculus Rift-esque) sells more than a million units within the next 5 years. ( 85% confidence; 23 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by adbge on 2013-12-26; known on 2018-12-26; judged right by bendini on 2017-06-05.
-
HP MoR: At the end of the story Hermione comes back as an alicorn princess ( 18% confidence; 21 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by Benja on 2013-07-06; known on 2014-07-06; judged right by Benja on 2015-03-15.
-
Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035. ( 19% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2013-06-27; known on 2035-12-31.
-
The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022 ( 34% confidence; 35 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-15; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by M on 2022-01-01.
-
Republican presidential candidate in 2016 to be generally perceived as immigration-friendly (described as such by a major news source). ( 30% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-20; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-08-05.
-
In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ( 14% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-29; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
-
The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade ( 67% confidence; 22 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by kallman on 2010-11-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2021-09-10.
-
Antibiotics to become useless within 10 years. —Tim Walsh ( 12% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-13; known on 2020-08-13; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-08-13.
-
“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.” ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2040-01-01.