Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 62% | 76% | 80% | 94% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 300 | 260 | 195 | 249 | 347 | 149 | 1500 |
Displaying all predictions made by Jayson Virissimo. Filter by:
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Eliezer's Sequences will be published by the Singularity Institute as an ebook (in Kindle, PDF, or iBooks format) sometime between Nov. 1st 2012 and Mar. 1st 2013. ( 66% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-09; known on 2013-03-02; judged wrong by lukeprog on 2013-03-02.
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Someone on Fox News or one of the headlines on their website will claim that Mitt Romney won the 2012-10-03 presidential debate. ( 83% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by aaronsw on 2012-10-03; known on 2012-10-04; judged right by aaronsw on 2012-10-04.
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By 2040, no other country will have both more active nuclear warheads and higher GDP than the United States. ( 64% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-10-02; known on 2040-01-01.
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Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. — Robin Hanson ( 27% confidence; 14 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 9999-01-01.
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Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 9% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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I will receive a certificate of completion for 'Introduction to Logic'. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-30; known on 2012-11-12; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-11-13.
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I will receive a certificate of completion for 'Introduction to Mathematical Thinking'. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-30; known on 2012-11-06; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-11-13.
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I will receive a certificate of completion for 'Learn to Program: The Fundamentals'. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-30; known on 2012-11-13; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-11-13.
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I will beat Deus Ex: Human Revolution in Spanish before 2013. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-30; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-26.
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Wiki gun will be successfully complete in 2 years ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-28; known on 2014-09-23; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-26.
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I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years. ( 82% confidence; 15 wagers )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-29; known on 2022-09-29; judged right by lukeprog on 2022-09-29.
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I'll lose 10 pounds before Summit 2012. ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-29; known on 2012-10-15; judged wrong by lukeprog on 2012-10-15.
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The US presidential debates of 2016 will feature a three-way debate between a Democrat, a Republican, and a Libertarian Party candidate. ( 18% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-02; known on 2016-11-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-02.
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Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican. ( 51% confidence; 18 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-27; known on 2116-11-05.
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I will add a glossary to my Less Wrong article within 24 hours. ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-26; known on 2012-09-27; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-27.
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No Honduras R.E.D. will have >$100M GDP within 10 years. ( 82% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-24; known on 2022-09-24; judged right by gwern on 2022-09-24.
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No Honduras R.E.D. will have >$100M GDP within 20 years. ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-24; known on 2032-09-24.
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I will take more than 40 grams of kratom until 31.12.2012. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-09-24; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by wallowinmaya on 2012-12-15.
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Gwern will teach/contribute/ta a mooc within 2 years ( 30% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by paulharris on 2012-09-22; known on 2014-09-22; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
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In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ( 9% confidence; 16 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-18; known on 2022-09-19; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-09-25.
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I will get my motorcycle license in a week or less. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-15; known on 2012-09-22; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-20.
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There will be press report of significant uproar in the U.S. in next 3 years against an anti-Christian video released on the internet (similar to anti muslim video but mirrored) ( 22% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-15; known on 2015-10-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-10-06.
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A Libertarian Party candidate will receive more of the popular vote in the 2016 presidential election than the Republican candidate. ( 6% confidence; 23 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-02; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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If I buy a new Honda Rebel this month, then I won't pay more than $3,700 for it. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-11; known on 2012-10-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-10-30.
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If I trade in my 2006 Scion tC this month, then I will get equal to or greater than $5,600 for it. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-11; known on 2012-10-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-26.
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The “Anonymous Narratives by LW Women” thread will receive >100 comments ( 89% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Athrelon on 2012-09-09; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by beo_shaffer on 2012-09-12.
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iPhone 5 (not “4S”) will launch Sprint-only in the US ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-04; known on 2012-09-13; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-12.
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NYTimes: Thomas Friedman will make a (charitably) a testable prediction in an article next week 10th-16th ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by William-Quixote on 2012-09-08; known on 2012-09-16; judged wrong by William-Quixote on 2012-09-20.
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NYTimes: Paul Krugman will make a (charitably) testable prediction in an article next week 10th-16th ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by William-Quixote on 2012-09-08; known on 2012-09-16; judged right by William-Quixote on 2012-09-20.
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Yoshiyuki Sadamoto’s Evangelion manga: After stage (chapter) 87, there will be 3 more stages, for a final manga volume consisting of 6 stages ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2013-03-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-20.
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I will not smoke a (tobacco containing) cigarette for the next 25 years. ( 92% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-07; known on 2037-09-07.
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Kate Evans (@aristosophy) will be revealed to be the blogger Sister Y, from The View from Hell ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Filipe on 2012-09-07; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Filipe on 2012-09-09.
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I will be enrolled as a student @ ASU again before 2014. ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-06; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-02-27.
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The LW user account “Grognor” will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years. ( 45% confidence; 13 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-08-27; known on 2022-08-28; judged wrong by muflax on 2022-08-28.
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My 'guide to modern classical music' won't be finished by the end of the year. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2013-01-01.
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I'll have read through chapter 20 in HPMoR by the end of this month. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2012-10-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2012-10-01.
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“The Singularity and Machine Ethics” will have been cited more than 5 times, according to Google Scholar, by the end of 2013. ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2014-01-01.
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I will be hired as a Civilian Investigation Specialist before 2013. ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-26.
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I will start a 2nd startup before 2013. ( 33% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-26.
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I will enroll in chemistry courses at a local community college before 2013. ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-26.
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Fed won't announce QE3 at their Sept 12-13 meeting ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-04; known on 2012-09-15; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-09-14.
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I will still affirm simulation-theism in 2013. ( 65% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-26.
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I will visit Oxford UK this year. ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2013-01-01.
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At least 2 billion biological humans will be alive on Earth at the beginning of 2030. ( 94% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2030-01-01.
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The complete Russian translation of Facing the Singularity will be posted to facingthesingularity.com by the end of November. ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 57 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2012-12-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2012-12-01.
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I'll still be a physicalist throughout 2013. ( 97% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2014-01-01.
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Eliezer will start posting his Open FAI problems sequence to LessWrong.com in September 2012. ( 47% confidence; 16 wagers )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2012-10-01; judged wrong by lukeprog on 2012-10-01.
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I won't use Facebook until Friday. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-02; known on 2012-09-08; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-07.
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Robin Hanson & Katja Grace will be in a publicly-known romantic relationship at some point in the next 10 years ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-02; known on 2022-09-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2022-09-02.
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LiteCoin will trade at >=10 USD per ltc in 1 year ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-02; known on 2013-09-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-09-02.
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The Less Wrong Karma will be changed before October 20 so that the -5 penalty for replying to -3 comments is removed or adjusted. ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-31; known on 2012-10-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-10-20.
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Caplan will win his bet with Nye on Indian fertility ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-30; known on 2034-06-01.
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Apple won't sue Google over Android before end of 2013 ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-29; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by dk on 2014-03-23.
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Initial shipments (0-30 days after launch day) of iPhone 5 will not have a model with over 512 MB RAM ( 50% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-03-21; known on 2013-08-08; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-12.
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The NDE out of body consciousness experiment by Dr Parnia will be entirely negative ( 70% confidence; 10 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Adam on 2008-09-22; known on 2013-04-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-11-14.
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“When Apple announces a 27-inch or 30-inch Retina Display, you can bet it will have an integrated GPU.” —Robert X Cringely ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by procran on 2014-02-15.
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All 9 wounded bystanders in NY Midtown incident were shot by the cops rather than the original shooter ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-25; known on 2013-08-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-08-26.
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August 2013 hard drive prices: 37-43 GB/$ ( 48% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-23; known on 2013-08-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-08-28.
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If I have one or more children before 03/01/2013, then at least one of them will be a girl. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-22; known on 2013-03-02; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-03-04.
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Scott Siskind will stil be an atheist by 2014. ( 96% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Kaj_Sotala on 2012-08-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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Mitt Romney will change his position to the GOP platform of banning all abortion even in the case of incest and rape. ( 14% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-08-22; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-08.
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The average lifespan for people living in current OECD countries in 2060 will be equal to or greater than 100 years. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-22; known on 2061-01-01.
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My “Master Deck” for Anki will exceed 3,500 flash cards before September, 2012. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-20; known on 2012-09-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-05.
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For the year of 2020, natural gas will account for a higher percentage of US energy consumption than wind and solar power combined. ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-18; known on 2021-01-01.
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Assuming Romney doesn't win, Paul Ryan will be one of the top 3 candidates in Republican primary for president in 2016 ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-12; known on 2016-03-01; judged wrong by Temeraire on 2016-02-12.
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North and South Korea will reunify by 2025 ( 20% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-15; known on 2025-12-31.
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An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years. ( 8% confidence; 17 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-14; known on 2032-11-10.
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Paul Ryan will be the Republican Vice President nominee in 2012. ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-11; known on 2013-01-02.
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I will pass the written exam for the 'Crime Analyst' position on 08/16/2012. ( 66% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-10; known on 2012-08-16; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-16.
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I will be enrolled as a student @ ASU again before 2014. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-16.
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I will be enrolled as a student @ ASU again before 2013. ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-26.
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I will still use an Android-based mobile by 2015. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-07; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-08-27.
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If I still regularly use a laptop in 2015 (at least monthly), then that laptop will run a Linux-based OS (use the Linux kernel). ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-07; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2016-06-02.
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Health care spending in the US will exceed 19% of GDP sometime before 2015. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-06; known on 2015-01-02; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-06.
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By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone. ( 53% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-04; known on 2022-08-04; judged right by atzeje on 2022-05-23.
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HPMoR: Quirrell killed the original Voldemort and took his position. ( 4% confidence; 19 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-07-31; known on 2014-07-31; judged wrong by player_03 on 2015-03-16.
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Usain Bolt will win the 100m gold medal in the 2012 Olympics. ( 55% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-27; known on 2012-08-05; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-08-06.
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No new federal gun laws will be passed in 2012 as a result of the Colorado shooting ( 75% confidence; 7 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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Total Recall (2012) will do better than Bourne Legacy (2012) (measured by box office receipts of the first 4 wks) ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2012-09-21; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-09-21.
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If I donate blood today, then I will feel sick within 15 minutes from finishing. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-20; known on 2012-07-20; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-20.
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Dark Knight Rises will hold a score of 90% or greater on Rottentomatoes.com on July 25th. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-07-15; known on 2012-07-25; judged wrong by lukeprog on 2012-07-25.
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I will have one or more offspring before 03/2013. ( 99% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-12; known on 2013-03-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-02-17.
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I will have three or more offspring before 03/2013. ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-12; known on 2013-03-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-03-04.
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I will have two or more offspring before 03/2013. ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-12; known on 2013-03-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-03-04.
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I will read every entry in the Summer 2012 Edition of the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy within 1 year from now. ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-11; known on 2013-07-11; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-07-27.
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I will trim and reorganize my Anki deck within the next 8 hours. ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-09; known on 2012-07-09; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-09.
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I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 8 hours. ( 45% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-09; known on 2012-07-09; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-09.
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I will complete chapter 20 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 8 hours. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-09; known on 2012-07-09; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-09.
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I will complete chapter 6 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Statistics within the next 8 hours. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-09; known on 2012-07-09; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-09.
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Pope Benedict XVI will be dead before November, 2012. ( 9% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-08; known on 2012-11-01; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-10-31.
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Bloom & Speak Bilingual Tx will turn an economic profit before 09/2012. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-08; known on 2012-09-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-06.
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Bloom & Speak Bilingual Tx will turn an accounting profit before 09/2012. ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-08; known on 2012-09-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-06.
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'Evolutionary Psychology: The New Science of the Mind' will arrive on or before 07/17/2012. ( 100% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-08; known on 2012-07-17; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-15.
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'Evolutionary Psychology: The New Science of the Mind' will arrive on or before 07/12/2012. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-08; known on 2012-07-12; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-13.
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I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-08; known on 2012-07-08; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-08.
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I will complete chapter 19 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-08; known on 2012-07-08; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-08.
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I will complete chapter 5 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Statistics within the next 10 hours. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-08; known on 2012-07-08; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-08.
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Amazon won't launch it's own smart phone by end of 2013 ( 70% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-07; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 9 hours. ( 35% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-04; known on 2012-07-04; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-04.
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I will complete chapter 18 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 9 hours. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-04; known on 2012-07-04; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-04.