Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 66% | 55% | 64% | 79% | 92% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 62 | 76 | 58 | 62 | 98 | 24 | 380 |
Displaying all predictions made by splorridge. Filter by:
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2017 to be the warmest year ever ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2018-02-06.
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2016 to be the warmest year ever ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2017-01-18.
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At least one person will die before 2018 from injuries produced during a VR experience, and this will be publicly known. ( 63% confidence; 11 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-05-17; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-12-23.
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The US dollar to crash, and loose 50%, or more of it's value by 2026 ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sdr on 2016-05-14; known on 2026-01-01.
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Humanity still a thing in 2036 ( 89% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-13; known on 2036-12-31.
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Trump's VP pick is not a career politician (i.e. is a businessperson, celebrity, etc.) ( 32% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-06; known on 2016-08-16; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-15.
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Bernie Sanders will win 60-70% of the California primary vote ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by docskalski on 2016-05-04; known on 2016-06-08; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-06-08.
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Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians. http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/ ( 19% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-26; known on 2027-01-01.
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More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles. ( 21% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-26; known on 2024-12-31.
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A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization. ( 12% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-26; known on 2028-05-01.
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M will get 50 catches of 3 balls in the next three months ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-04-25; known on 2016-07-25; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-26.
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J will get 50 catches of 4 balls in the next six months. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2016-04-25; known on 2016-10-24; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-10-31.
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1 year continuous human habitation of the moon ( 17% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-18; known on 2025-06-22.
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2016 New York Democratic Primary isn't a blowout (i.e. margin of victory is < 15%) ( 73% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-04-14; known on 2016-04-21; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-04-21.
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Kim Jung Un ousted, assassinated, or somehow loses power of North Korea, either internally or from some international influence ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-12; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Kasich does not become the Republican nominee ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-04-10; known on 2016-08-16; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-21.
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David Cameron will resign as PM due to the Panama Papers scandal in the next two weeks. ( 5% confidence; 21 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2016-04-08; known on 2016-04-22; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-04-22.
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The winner of the 2016 US presidential election will be a Democrat. ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by trishume on 2016-04-07; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Hilary wins New York primary ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-04-06; known on 2016-04-25; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-20.
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UK Police will have the ability to scan people's faces from their cars as they drive past, as they do with License plates ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-06; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2018-07-10.
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Hillary Clinton Wins New York Democratic Primary 2016 ( 71% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-05; known on 2016-04-20; judged right by jesselevine on 2016-04-20.
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No new elementary particles to be discovered before December 20, 2016 ( 83% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-19; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-02.
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2017 US Congress SENATE to be controlled by democrats. ( 44% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-23; known on 2016-11-13; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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2017 US Congress HOUSE to be controlled by republicans. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-23; known on 2016-11-13; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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AI to beat at least one of the ten top-ranked humans in Starcraft Brood War by January 1, 2019 ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-23; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2019-01-01.
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Third party candidate gets more votes than Trump. ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-22; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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In 2019, I’ll be able to get a pizza delivered to my house by a robot. ( 38% confidence; 15 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-20; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-21.
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World Champion of Go will defeat Google's AI ( 28% confidence; 9 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by artir on 2016-03-08; known on 2016-03-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-12.
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D and I will walk to Ely tonight ( 0% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2016-03-11; known on 2016-03-12; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-03-12.
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AlphaGo will beat any human it plays for the next 2 years(no handicap games). ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-11; known on 2018-12-16; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-13.
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Ke Jie loses to AlphaGo ( 87% confidence; 15 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-08.
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Hillary Clinton will win the democratic nomination ( 88% confidence; 30 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sole21000 on 2016-03-09; known on 2016-07-26; judged right by grogo on 2016-07-26.
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Donald Trump will win the Republican nomination ( 77% confidence; 18 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sole21000 on 2016-03-09; known on 2016-07-22; judged right by elephantower on 2016-07-20.
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Romney is GOP nominee. ( 2% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-08; known on 2016-11-16; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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Romney runs third party. ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-08; known on 2016-11-16; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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Full (infant) human mind provably fully simulatable on any amount of extant hardware ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.
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Trump Republicans split from GOP to start a third party. ( 10% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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Establishment Republicans split from GOP and start a third party. ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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Malaysia will be a high income country by 2020. ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-03; known on 2020-12-25.
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Trump selects Christie as his running mate. ( 19% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-02; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-15.
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2016 global climate change reaches +10 degrees Celsius relative to 1996 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-02; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.
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Facebook will either remove the negative-valence expanded reaction buttons, or in some way allow people to de-activate the option for their own posts, by the end of 2016 ( 28% confidence; 17 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Temeraire on 2016-02-25; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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The UK will stay in the EU ( 67% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by spinkley on 2016-02-24; known on 2016-06-24; judged wrong by Reactionaryhistorian on 2016-06-24.
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Guantanamo Bay detention facility to close before year end. ( 18% confidence; 12 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-23; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-31.
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The British Conservative Party will win the next UK general election with an outright majority of MPs (not conditional on election date) ( 62% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Waring on 2016-02-11; known on 2020-05-10; judged wrong by Waring on 2017-08-03.
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Michael Bloomberg wins the 2016 presidential election. ( 1% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-21; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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I will give D some food tonight. ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-02-21; known on 2016-02-22; judged right by splorridge on 2016-02-21.
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A will beat their record archery score tomorrow. ( 30% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2016-02-20; known on 2016-02-21; judged right by splorridge on 2016-02-21.
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Bernie Sanders will run as a third party/independent if he does not win the Democratic Nomination. ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Faceh on 2016-02-20; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by Faceh on 2016-07-12.
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D or A will leave something behind. ( 30% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2016-02-20; known on 2016-02-21; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-02-21.
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D will travel by car with A tomorrow. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2016-02-20; known on 2016-02-21; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-02-21.
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D will get a paper out before F or A ( 60% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2016-02-20; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-06-09.
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The Higgs boson discovered at the LHC on 4/7/12 will be found to NOT be a standard model Higgs boson. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-02-19; known on 2025-01-01.
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Greece will not announce it’s leaving the Euro in 2016 ( 93% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Temeraire on 2016-02-18; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Temeraire on 2017-01-01.
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Italy will default on its debt by 2022. ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-16; known on 2022-12-25; judged wrong by qznc on 2022-01-02.
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Eurozone sovereign debt crisis by 2022. ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-16; known on 2022-12-25.
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Spain will default on its debt by 2022. ( 39% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-16; known on 2022-12-25.
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President Bernie Sanders Assassinated ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-02-16; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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Kanye West will be U.S. President-elect before 2025 ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-14; known on 2025-01-01.
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There will be at least nine more gravitational wave detections announced in 2016 ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-01-01.
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There will be at least eight more gravitational wave detections announced in 2016 ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-01-01.
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There will be at least seven more gravitational wave detections announced in 2016 ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-01-01.
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There will be at least six more gravitational wave detections announced in 2016 ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-01-01.
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There will be at least five more gravitational wave detections announced in 2016 ( 49% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-01-01.
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There will be at least four more gravitational wave detections announced in 2016 ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-01-01.
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There will be at least three more gravitational wave detections announced in 2016 ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-01-01.
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There will be at least one more gravitational wave detection announced in 2016 ( 86% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-06-15.
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There will be at least two more gravitational wave detections announced in 2016 ( 71% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-01-01.
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A longterm (with humans present at least sixth months) colony will occur on Mars before it occurs on the Earth's moon. ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-13; known on 2050-01-01.
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Bernie Sanders will win the Nevada primary ( 49% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by silacoid on 2016-02-13; known on 2016-02-21; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-21.
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By January 2020, there will be a commercial house cleaning robots (like a Roomba) that can take voice commands to go to specific parts of the house and clean those. ( 63% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-13; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-08.
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Independent of the next elected president of the United States, there will not exist a wall along the 1,954 mile border shared with Mexico within 8 years of inauguration. ( 74% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-13; known on 2025-01-20.
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I will beat C in the next game of AoE2 we play together. ( 70% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2016-02-10; known on 2016-02-11; judged right by splorridge on 2016-02-11.
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Gravitational waves will be detected this year. ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-10; known on 2016-12-25; judged right by kuudes on 2016-02-11.
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The 2016 Iowa GOP Caucus result does not get overturned/revised such that Trump takes first place. ( 92% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2016-02-05; known on 2016-09-16; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-16.
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Summer Olympics in Brazil happen in 2016 ( 95% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-24; known on 2016-09-30; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-06.
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C will learn how to solve a Rubik's cube this year. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2016-01-21; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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C will work out how to solve a Rubik's cube this year. ( 1% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2016-01-21; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-01-22.
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Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years. ( 10% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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North Korean government collapses in the next 5 years. ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Sweden declares war against any EU member state ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-01.
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Sweden declares war against any member of Nordic Council ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-01.
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I am still using Complice on December 1 2016. ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-01-13; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-12-02.
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China will fall into disorder and civil war by the end of 2017 ( 6% confidence; 21 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by chinawillfall on 2016-01-13; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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The Chinese economy will completely collapse by 2017. ( 7% confidence; 20 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by chinawillfall on 2016-01-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Computers will beat the best humans at Go before 2017 ( 54% confidence; 21 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Houshalter on 2016-01-11; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Houshalter on 2016-03-15.
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New Mersenne prime to be discovered by January 1, 2020 ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-20.
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Gentoo will remain my primary OS over the next decade ( 57% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jach on 2016-01-10; known on 2026-01-10.
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I am still at SFDC in 5 years ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jach on 2016-01-10; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Jach on 2020-08-22.
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I am still at SFDC in 3 years ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jach on 2016-01-10; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Jach on 2019-01-01.
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I am still at SFDC in one year ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jach on 2016-01-10; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Jach on 2017-01-03.
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By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders – sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy… – in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications. ( 34% confidence; 18 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2016-01-08; known on 2026-12-31.
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The 750 GeV diphoton excess reported by the LHC in December 2015 will be definitively attributed to new fundamental physics by the end of 2017 by either the CMS or ATLAS collaborations according to the 5-sigma “observation” criteria. ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jessriedel on 2016-01-06; known on 2018-01-02; judged wrong by jessriedel on 2018-01-02.
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Before 2017, I will switch from Ubuntu back to Windows for most of my desktop computing ( 17% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-01.
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2016 predictions: I will end up being underconfident on my 2016 predictions. ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
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2016 predictions: No US politicians will be assassinated. ( 92% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-12-31.
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2016 predictions: there will not be any terrorist attacks in the US that kill more than 40 people. ( 74% confidence; 22 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-12.
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2016 predictions: World War III will happen. ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-12-31.
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2016 predictions: I will have a baby. ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
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2016 predictions: I will still be a vegetarian or pescetarian at the end of the year. ( 91% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.