Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 33% | 100% | 50% | 50% | 100% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 16 |
Displaying all predictions made by erikbjare. Filter by:
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The price of bitcoin will have fallen below $200 by January. ( 25% confidence )
Created by erikbjare on 2014-10-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by erikbjare on 2015-01-01.
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There will be a manned mission to Mars by 2017 ( 7% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-29; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2017-01-16.
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There will be a manned mission to Mars by 2020 ( 30% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-29; known on 2020-01-16; judged wrong by dvolk on 2020-01-10.
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There will be a manned mission to Mars by 2025 ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-29; known on 2025-01-16.
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There will be a manned mission to Mars by 2030 ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-29; known on 2030-01-16.
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By 2050 the majority of music will be “generated” and not recorded. This will include vocals. ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by msevrens on 2014-10-28; known on 2050-10-28.
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By 2080 most manufacturing and processing of materials will be done in space ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by msevrens on 2014-10-28; known on 2079-10-28.
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Less than 10 people will die of Ebola in Germany within the next year ( 87% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by qznc on 2014-10-21; known on 2015-10-21; judged right by Josh Holland on 2015-10-21.
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Less than 300 people will die of Ebola within the fifty United States by January 1, 2018 —Bryan Caplan ( 88% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2014-10-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by bendini on 2017-11-20.
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I am accepted to Y Combinator with my idea for an EEG framework: http://synaptitude.me/, Winter 2015 ( 25% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lettergram on 2014-10-05; known on 2014-11-01; judged wrong by lettergram on 2014-11-01.
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Ebola will be tamed in 3 months ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2014-11-02; judged wrong by mad on 2014-11-02.
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Firefox mobile OS: > 5% mobile market share in five years ( 10% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lavalamp on 2014-02-25; known on 2019-02-24; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-03-07.
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it will rain in the next week ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by reesarose on 2014-02-23; known on 2014-03-02; judged right by reesarose on 2014-03-04.
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MtGox is insolvent. It currently holds less bitcoins or USD than the total sum of money shown to be deposited in it. ( 75% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2014-02-22; known on 2014-07-14; judged right by ygert on 2014-02-28.
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By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ( 54% confidence; 42 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by ZLM on 2014-02-10; known on 2025-01-01; judged unknown by lavalamp on 2014-08-21.
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Apple will announce Iphone 6 by the end of February. ( 23% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Jedijuggler on 2014-01-23; known on 2014-02-28; judged wrong by Jedijuggler on 2014-02-28.
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I will pass the computational neuroscience program on Coursera ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-12-27; known on 2014-03-07; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2014-08-22.
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No one will win Sam Harris's prize for convincing him that his book is wrong ( 87% confidence; 19 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Omid on 2013-09-01; known on 2014-11-01; judged right by Matt2000 on 2014-11-01.