Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 100% | 67% | 67% | 83% | 78% | 50% | |
Sample Size | 2 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 31 |
Displaying all predictions made by kiimberlie. Filter by:
-
50% chance of AI by 2028 —Shane Legg ( 23% confidence; 29 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2028-01-01.
-
In the 2018 NBA Playoffs, Golden State will beat Cleveland. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by davatk on 2018-06-01; known on 2018-06-18; judged right by davatk on 2018-06-16.
-
Us declares war on Iran by september 2020 ( 18% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tschescheier on 2018-05-12; known on 2020-09-01; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-09-05.
-
[In the 2018 NBA Playoffs,] Cleveland will beat Boston. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by davatk on 2018-05-10; known on 2018-05-30; judged right by davatk on 2018-05-29.
-
[In the 2018 NBA Playoffs,] Golden State will beat Houston. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by davatk on 2018-05-10; known on 2018-05-30; judged right by davatk on 2018-05-29.
-
Trump wins Nobel ( 10% confidence; 41 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2018-05-03; known on 2030-01-01.
-
Politics, US – A department of the Federal government is eliminated before the end of 2018 ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
Another US senator or representative will resign or be removed from office due to allegations of sexual harassment or assault ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
-
Trump is president at years end ( 91% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
-
Republicans will win the house in 2018. ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-17; known on 2018-12-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
-
[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Bernie Sanders ( 13% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-17; known on 2020-09-16; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
-
[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Hilary Clinton ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-17; known on 2020-09-16; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
-
[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Kamala Harris ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-17; known on 2020-09-16; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
-
[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Cory Booker ( 7% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-17; known on 2020-09-16; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
-
[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Joe Biden ( 32% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-17; known on 2020-09-16; judged right by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
-
“Bitcoin will be the world’s ‘single currency’ in 10 years” ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2018-03-21; known on 2028-03-21; judged unknown by Bruno Parga on 2018-04-09.
-
Brexit will successfully have take place by August 2019 ( 32% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Finma on 2018-03-03; known on 2019-01-08; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-02.
-
Trump is being drugged by the deep state/some 3-letter-agency, and this becomes verifiable ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-15; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
-
Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death. ( 6% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2017-03-17; known on 2037-03-17; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-09-08.
-
Trump will win a second term ( 46% confidence; 74 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2020-11-08; judged wrong by regex on 2020-11-20.
-
In the next 5 years, Northern Ireland holds either an Irish reunification referendum, or an independence referendum. ( 12% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-06-27; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
-
Another EU country will decide to leave before 2020 ( 44% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-24; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Paul.David.Carr on 2020-01-01.
-
Scotland will have another independence referendum and the result will be YES. ( 42% confidence; 16 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-03-23; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-02.
-
Manually driving a car will be outlawed in the U.S. by 2035 ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-27; known on 2036-01-01; judged unknown by InquilineKea on 2015-08-04.
-
“by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system” ( 5% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-26; known on 2031-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
-
No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040. ( 86% confidence; 24 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-19; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
-
90% chance of AI by 2050 —Shane Legg ( 47% confidence; 21 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2050-01-01.
-
“By the end of the year 2020, a professional sports team that is part of either the National Football League, the National Basketball Association, Major League Baseball, the National Hockey League, or Major League Soccer will integrate and have a woman as ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.