Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Swansea will beat/draw against Crystal Palace ( 60% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-23; known on 2014-11-30; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-30.
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Man U will beat/draw against Hull ( 90% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-23; known on 2014-11-30; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-30.
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I will go to Dawson's today ( 80% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-29; known on 2014-11-30; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-30.
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The mid-market exchange rate will average below $1.275/€ (i.e. less than 1.275 dollars can be bought per euro) over november 2014. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Philip_W on 2014-10-20; known on 2014-12-01; judged right by Philip_W on 2014-11-30.
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The Rosetta Probe's Philae lander will touch down successfully (at least 9 of its 10 scientific instruments working) on comet 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko by the end of November. ( 85% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by tdhellma on 2014-08-14; known on 2014-11-30; judged right by kuudes on 2014-11-30.
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The Rosetta Probe's Philae lander will touch down successfully (at least 9 of its 10 scientific instruments working) on comet 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko by the end of November. ( 85% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by tdhellma on 2014-08-14; known on 2014-11-30; judged right by kuudes on 2014-11-30.
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The Rosetta Probe's Philae lander will touch down successfully (at least 9 of its 10 scientific instruments working) on comet 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko by the end of November. ( 85% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by tdhellma on 2014-08-14; known on 2014-11-30; judged right by kuudes on 2014-11-30.
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It was two of the blocks ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-26; known on 2014-11-26; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-30.
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It was two of the blocks ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-26; known on 2014-11-26; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-30.
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Aston Villa will beat/draw against Burnley ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-23; known on 2014-11-30; judged right by dpchalmers on 2014-11-29.
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The pimping squad and I will not move onto another club ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-26; known on 2014-11-29; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2014-11-29.
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I have already received my PR time ( 40% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-29; known on 2014-11-29; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-29.
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If I go to PR tomorrow, I will get a new PB. ( 50% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-28; known on 2014-11-29; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-29.
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I will go to PR tomorrow ( 70% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-28; known on 2014-11-29; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-29.
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A will submit application to math instructorship before deadline. ( 80% confidence )
Created by adri on 2014-11-27; known on 2014-12-01; judged right by adri on 2014-11-28.
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A will be at the lesson ( 70% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-27; known on 2014-11-27; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-28.
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I will publicly record at least one prediction per month, at least until the end of 2014. ( 78% confidence )
Created by etarletons on 2014-05-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by etarletons on 2014-11-26.
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It was two of the blocks ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-26; known on 2014-11-26; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-30.
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I will finish CA today ( 60% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-25; known on 2014-11-26; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-26.
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There will be more than 3 people at JB ( 80% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-18; known on 2014-11-25; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-25.
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I watch UC and OC tonight ( 75% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-24; known on 2014-11-24; judged right by qwerty314 on 2014-11-25.
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MS gets 10/10 on problem sheet 7 ( 83% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-24; known on 2014-11-24; judged right by qwerty314 on 2014-11-25.
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I still have no replies from the press ( 80% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-24; known on 2014-11-24; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-24.
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Rosanna will not say a word to me by or on 10:35 ( 58% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-24; known on 2014-11-24; judged right by qwerty314 on 2014-11-24.
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Will be moved to Bay Area in the next 3 months ( 33% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-23; known on 2014-11-23; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-11-24.
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Assassination Market will still be up in 1 year. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-23; known on 2014-11-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-11-24.
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Stoke will beat Burnley ( 50% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-11; known on 2014-11-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-23.
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Chelsea will beat or draw against West Brom ( 80% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-11; known on 2014-11-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-23.
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Man City will beat Swansea ( 60% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-11; known on 2014-11-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-23.
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I will win this next game ( 80% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-20; known on 2014-11-20; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-23.
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Zerocoin as functioning altcoin network within a year ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-22; known on 2014-11-22; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-11-23.
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Zerocoin functionality incorporated into Bitcoin within 1 year ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-22; known on 2014-11-22; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-11-23.
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“Warlords of Khanar” will be the name of the MTG block codenamed “Huey”, “Dewey” and “Louie”, and/or one of the sets of that block. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ygert on 2013-09-25; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by LogicalOxymoron on 2014-11-22.
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2nd date with I ( 57% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-09; known on 2014-12-01; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22.
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I go to GE ( 45% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22; known on 2014-11-22; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22.
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Roy at karaoke ( 18% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22; known on 2014-11-22; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22.
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Projecter board wipeable ( 85% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22; known on 2014-11-22; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22.
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CP Friends w/ RyW (FB) ( 84% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22; known on 2014-11-22; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22.
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Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22; known on 2014-11-22; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22.
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He was serious about t's too much. ( 80% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22; known on 2014-11-22; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22.
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Guy was running into old house ( 60% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22; known on 2014-11-22; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22.
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MS makes it to round 2 of try-outs ( 62% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-12; known on 2014-11-13; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22.
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The Republicans will keep their US House majority after the 2014 elections ( 56% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-07; known on 2014-12-01; judged right by kuudes on 2014-11-22.
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I see BOTH by 18:00 today ( 52% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-20; known on 2014-11-20; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2014-11-21.
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Ross Taylor accepts my FB friend request by or on 30th November ( 52% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-17; known on 2014-11-30; judged right by qwerty314 on 2014-11-21.
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AC, JD and Boris will win PWC quiz on Thursday conditional on it going ahead ( 23% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-17; known on 2014-11-21; judged right by qwerty314 on 2014-11-21.
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McSweeney's will NOT select my list, “Four Vegetables You Hated As A Kid But Should Give A Second Chance, Even If They Did Murder Your Family”, as a piece to publish on their website. ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-10-04; known on 2014-11-01; judged right by aarongertler on 2014-11-21.
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Instacart will not ask me to interview for a position. ( 90% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-10-25; known on 2014-12-30; judged right by aarongertler on 2014-11-21.
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SIG will not offer me a position. ( 70% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-10-25; known on 2014-11-19; judged right by aarongertler on 2014-11-21.
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Minotaurs will be a tribe in Theros. ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Mathias Zaman on 2013-07-15; known on 2013-09-21; judged right by Mathias Zaman on 2014-11-19.