Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 49% | 57% | 65% | 86% | 94% | 89% | |
Sample Size | 241 | 286 | 236 | 287 | 552 | 46 | 1648 |
Displaying all predictions made by pranomostro. Filter by:
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[Macri to be re-elected president of Argentina, given USDARS] > 40 ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-10-28; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-28.
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British Museum to return Hoa Hakananai’a to Rapa Nui in 2019 ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.
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[Politics] Conservatives to win more seats than Liberals in Canada's federal election ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-10-22; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-22.
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[Politics] NDA to win a majority of seats in Indian general election ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-06-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-28.
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[Economy] UK's Economic Policy Uncertainty Index for March 2019 to be higher than any month after July 2016 ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-04-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-02.
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[OMX Tallinn] to perform better in 2019 than in 2018 ( 75% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-01-03.
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[OMX Tallinn] to outperform S&P 500 in 2019 ( 27% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.
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[OMX Tallinn] to outperform OMX Riga in 2019 ( 42% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.
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[OMX Tallinn] to outperform OMX Vilnius in 2019 ( 38% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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[Commodities] Brent > WTI for all of 2019 through September EOM ( 85% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-10-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-01.
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[Commodities] Brent > WTI for all of 2019 through August EOM ( 88% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-09-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-01.
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[Commodities] Brent > WTI for all of 2019 through June EOM ( 90% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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[Hong Kong vigil to commemorate 30th anniversary of Tian'anmen Square Incident to] draw record-high attendance, assuming it is not canceled ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-06-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-05.
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[Hong Kong vigil to commemorate 30th anniversary of Tian'anmen Square Incident to] be canceled ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-06-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-05.
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[Hong Kong vigil to commemorate 30th anniversary of Tian'anmen Square Incident to] draw record-low attendance, assuming it is not canceled ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-06-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-05.
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[Hong Kong vigil to commemorate 30th anniversary of Tian'anmen Square Incident to] draw fewer than 100,000 people, assuming it is not canceled ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-06-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-05.
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[US FOMC December rate decision to be:] leave rate unchanged ( 60% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-12-12; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-12.
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[US FOMC December rate decision to be:] reduce rate ( 32% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-12-12; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-12.
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[US FOMC December rate decision to be:] raise rate ( 7% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-12-12; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-12.
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[US FOMC October rate decision to be:] leave rate unchanged ( 52% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-10-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-01.
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[US FOMC October rate decision to be:] reduce rate ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-10-31; judged right by Cato on 2019-11-01.
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[US FOMC October rate decision to be:] raise rate ( 8% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-10-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-01.
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[US FOMC September rate decision to be:] leave rate unchanged ( 46% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-09-19; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-19.
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[US FOMC September rate decision to be:] reduce rate ( 44% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-09-19; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-19.
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[US FOMC September rate decision to be:] raise rate ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-09-19; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-19.
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[US FOMC July rate decision to be:] leave rate unchanged ( 42% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-08-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-01.
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[US FOMC July rate decision to be:] reduce rate ( 54% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-08-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-08-01.
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[US FOMC July rate decision to be:] raise rate ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-08-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-01.
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[US FOMC June rate decision to be:] leave rate unchanged ( 78% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-06-20; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-20.
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[US FOMC June rate decision to be:] reduce rate ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-06-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-20.
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[US FOMC June rate decision to be:] raise rate ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-06-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-20.
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[US FOMC May rate decision to be:] leave rate unchanged ( 87% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-05-02; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-05.
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[US FOMC May rate decision to be:] reduce rate ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-05-02; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-05.
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[US FOMC May rate decision to be:] raise rate ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-05-02; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-05.
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[US FOMC March rate decision to be:] leave rate unchanged ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-03-21; judged right by Cato on 2019-03-21.
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[US FOMC March rate decision to be:] reduce rate ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-03-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-21.
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[US FOMC March rate decision to be:] raise rate ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-03-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-21.
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A PC standalone, F2P version of AutoChess will launch (defined as open to everyone, even if it's early access or beta) within 2019. ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by bshih on 2019-02-27; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by bshih on 2019-07-01.
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BTC will end 2019 higher than it started (priced in USD). ( 87% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by bshih on 2019-02-27; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by bshih on 2019-12-31.
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American troops participate in an armed conflict in Venezuela before 2024 ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-02-25; known on 2024-01-01.
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Science – Conditional on being given an answer, I'm told that a majority of participants in the VAC066 trial did not develop malaria at the end of the monitoring period. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2019-02-17; known on 2019-03-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-03-05.
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Politics, UK – Current Labour MP resigns the whip before 2019-04-01 ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2019-02-17; known on 2019-04-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2019-02-19.
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Tech, AI – OpenAI publishes GPT-2 model weights before 2019-04-01 ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2019-02-17; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-01.
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Politics – Bashar al-Assad ceases to be president of Syria before 1 January 2020. ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2019-02-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-01-01.
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Before 1 January 2020, any EU member state besides the UK sets a date for a referendum on leaving the EU or the eurozone. ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2019-02-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-01-01.
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[Politics] The Mueller investigation will not produce any criminal charges against Trump ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by RedScharlach on 2019-02-15; known on 2020-11-03; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-22.
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[Politics] Trump will be elected for a second term ( 45% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RedScharlach on 2019-02-15; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-11-07.
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[Politics] Trump will remain president for the expected duration of his first term ( 86% confidence; 15 wagers )
Created by RedScharlach on 2019-02-15; known on 2021-01-20; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-01-21.
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Saudi Aramco IPO by end of 2019 ( 20% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-13.
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Saudi Aramco IPO by end of 2020 ( 30% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-14; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-13.
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Saudi Aramco IPO by end of 2021 ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-14; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-13.
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Artie Lange is dead before the end of the year ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Coagulopath on 2019-02-13; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2021-06-11.
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Donald Trump is still president ( 82% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by Coagulopath on 2019-02-13; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Saudi Arabia misses key financial targets ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Coagulopath on 2019-02-13; known on 2020-12-31.
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Bitcoin finishes year < $10k USD ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Coagulopath on 2019-02-13; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
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No new NK nuclear weapon tests in 2019 ( 70% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Coagulopath on 2019-02-13; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.
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Kosovo has <117 diplomatic recognitions ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-02-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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No new states adopt the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-02-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by amadeu on 2019-03-18.
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Living thylacine specimen to be confirmed in 2019 ( 3% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-11; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.
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The Brexit Party to come first in Britain in the 2019 European Parliament elections ( 64% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-02-09; known on 2019-05-27; judged right by stepan on 2019-05-27.
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Trump will not be impeached ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by bklorimer on 2019-02-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-08-13.
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[Politics] At least one of the eight current main candidates for 2020 Democratic presidential nominee to withdraw within the next three months ( 34% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-05-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-05.
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[Politics] Theresa May to lose a vote of no confidence in 2019 H1 ( 32% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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Insects can feel pain and suffer ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by xdxdxd on 2019-02-02; known on 2050-03-01.
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[Politics] Canada to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q2 EOQ ( 7% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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[Politics] The EU to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q1 EOQ ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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[Politics] The EU to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q2 EOQ ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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[Politics] The US to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q1 EOQ ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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[Politics] Canada to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q1 EOQ ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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[Politics] The US to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q2 EOQ ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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China's Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) to see at least one loan default by 2019 Q1 EOQ ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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China's Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) to see at least one loan default by 2019 Q2 EOQ ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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China's Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) to see at least one loan default by 2019 Q3 EOQ ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-01.
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China's Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) to see at least one loan default by 2019 EOY ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.
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Any UN member state to recognize Taiwan or ROC in 2019 ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-31; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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The Yellow Jackets are still active and present in media in March ( 64% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Osuniev on 2019-01-27; known on 2019-03-16; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-03-17.
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“Nothing more embarassing than Vigano memo happens to Pope Francis” ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-04-09.
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“May still in power” ( 38% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2019-08-31.
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“MbS still in power” ( 92% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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“Xi still in power” ( 96% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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“China does not manage to avert economic crisis (subjective)” ( 35% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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“No other EU country announces plan to leave” ( 85% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-01.
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“Britain holds second Brexit referendum” ( 22% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-01-01.
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“Britain out of EU” ( 78% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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“No further CRISPR-edited babies born” ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-04-09.
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“Pregabalin successfully goes generic and costs less than $100/month on GoodRx.com” ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-04-09.
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“I can buy an Impossible Burger at a grocery store within a 30 minute walk from my house” ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-04-09.
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“No city where a member of the general public can ride self-driving car without attendant” ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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“SpaceX Starship reaches orbit” ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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“SpaceX successfully launches and returns crewed spacecraft” ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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“Dow above current value of 25000” ( 51% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-01.
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“Bitcoin above Ethereum” ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-01.
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“Bitcoin above 5000” ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-01.
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“Bitcoin above 3000” ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-01.
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“Bitcoin above 1000” ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-01.
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“Ginsberg [sic!] still alive” ( 54% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-01.
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“Trump’s approval rating below 40” ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-01-01.
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“Trump’s approval rating below 50” ( 79% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-01.
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“Polls show more people support the leading Democrat than the leading Republican” ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by amadeu on 2020-03-17.
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“Trump is still leading in prediction markets to be Republican nominee” ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-01.