Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 50% | 100% | 100% | 79% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 2 | 25 |
Displaying all predictions made by Pavitra. Filter by:
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“I predict that California violent crime rates should rise about 4 percent relative to the rest of the U.S. over the next few years.” — Steven D. Levitt (http://www.freakonomics.com/2011/06/01/the-supreme-court-provides-a-dissertation-topic-for-a-budding ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by Pavitra on 2011-06-16; known on 2017-06-17; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-06-25.
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HP MoR: Bacon's diary will turn out to be just a diary. ( 56% confidence; 19 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-02-01; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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HPMOR: Dumbledore is Grindelwald ( 2% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dusk on 2013-08-20; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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[HPMOR] Dumbledore did not kill (intentionally or unintentionally) Hermione. ( 79% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by linkhyrule5 on 2013-08-16; known on 2014-07-02; judged right by linkhyrule5 on 2015-02-20.
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HP MoR: Hermione will make a Horcrux chronologically before or during the events of ch89 ( 17% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-07-01; known on 2013-09-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2015-03-23.
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I will try either Acme, Emacs, or both over the coming year. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by alecbrooks on 2012-11-09; known on 2013-11-09; judged wrong by alecbrooks on 2013-11-18.
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I will be put on moderation/expelled from the Miyazaki mailing list for providing a public archive ( 39% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-01; known on 2011-10-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-01.
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'We are 100% certain that governments will start banning bitcoins in the next 12 to 18 months.' —Jason Calacanis ( 34% confidence; 18 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-16; known on 2012-11-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-15.
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“Somewhere before 2050 abortion on request and/or for socio-economic factors will be illegal worldwide.” ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.
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The world will not end December 25, 2012. ( 98% confidence; 28 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Houshalter on 2010-06-13; known on 2012-12-26; judged right by Qiaochu on 2012-12-26.
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Barack Obama will get reelected in two years (not individual opinion) ( 66% confidence; 17 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by tjross on 2010-03-23; known on 2012-11-06; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.
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Michael Jackson is still alive and hiding at Neverland. ( 12% confidence; 18 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by sharidanbowman on 2010-02-10; known on 2012-06-24; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-06-24.
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The “LessWrong Singularity article” will be accepted for publication. http://lesswrong.com/lw/1fz/a_less_wrong_singularity_article/ ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Pavitra on 2009-11-25; known on 2010-03-15; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2010-03-17.
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The current (10/21/09) predictionbook UI, with the right/wrong/unknown above the certainty/comments section, will still be sufficiently similar (and similarly bad) by 12/01/2009 that people mistakenly judging predictions will still happen at least three t ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by freyley on 2009-10-22; known on 2009-12-03; judged right by NineteenHalves on 2009-12-03.
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Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes. ( 17% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jennifer on 2009-10-19; known on 2025-01-12.
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This website's statistics will show that people pick percentages with a '2' in them anomalously often- presumably due to priming from the 'my 2 cents' ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Larks on 2009-10-17; known on 2010-01-16; judged wrong by Larks on 2010-01-16.
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I will make my flight ( 89% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by LauraABJ on 2009-10-15; known on 2009-10-16; judged right by LauraABJ on 2009-10-17.
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Real soon now, there will be some public debate about whether PredictionBook is better suited to deal with personal-life type events or global-public-interest type events ( 55% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2009-10-29; judged wrong by jes5199 on 2009-10-29.
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I'll go 48 hours without caffeine in the next two weeks ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2009-10-29; judged wrong by jes5199 on 2009-10-29.
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I'll have made 100 predictions on prediction book by the end of the month ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2009-11-01; judged right by anonym on 2009-11-01.
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This site will have a feature to hide other people's prediction results until after one has voted. This will be implemented at most within two weeks. ( 53% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kess3r on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-10-28; judged wrong by anonym on 2009-12-03.
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There will be a transport (train, air, boat etc) accident killing more than 1000 people before 14 october 2010. ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Arenamontanus on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-14.
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Political Pirate movement becomes part of mainstream politics, causing major and concerete changes to governments and some industries, worldwide, before 2017 ( 26% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Jonii on 2009-10-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-12.
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Extremist confusionists will not be able to prevent LHC collisions – even given they now have until our Autumn next year ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-24; known on 2009-11-09; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.