Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 33% | 67% | 40% | 80% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 21 |
Displaying all predictions made by jazzsolo. Filter by:
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Marijuana will be unscheduled, taxed and regulated similar to alcohol at a federal level in the United States before 2025. ( 42% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-01-01; known on 2025-01-02.
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Covid vaccines will be recognized as causing ongoing health issues of at least 3 months duration in from 1 in 500 and 1 in 5000 vaccinated individuals ( 22% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2021-12-26; known on 2030-01-01.
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Worldwide deaths in 2022 to exceed 90 million people. ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-12-26; known on 2023-01-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-15.
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SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant will be generally considered a lab leak before 2024 ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2021-12-23; known on 2024-01-01.
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India's GDP for 2021-2022 will be higher than 2020-2021 ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sam_jaques on 2021-01-08; known on 2022-04-01; judged right by sam_jaques on 2022-08-20.
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Politics, US – Donald Trump attempts to issue a pardon for himself before the end of the 20th of January 2021. ( 35% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-03; known on 2021-01-21; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-01-21.
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COVID, UK – At least ten million doses of vaccine have been administered before the end of January 2021 in the UK. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-03; known on 2021-02-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-02-01.
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COVID, UK – At least five million doses of vaccine have been administered before the end of January 2021 in the UK. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-03; known on 2021-02-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-01-24.
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Larry King will get cryopreserved in the next 50 years ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mati on 2021-01-03; known on 2071-01-01.
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> 100 fatalities per 1e12 revenue passenger kilometres on commercial airliners over 2040-2050 ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Leo on 2021-01-02; known on 2051-01-01.
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Kamala Harris to be US President by the end of 2021. ( 6% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-11-08; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-01-02.
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All Electric Vehicles will be 50% of new car sales in USA by 2030 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mkumba on 2020-12-24; known on 2020-12-25.
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A new technique for developing “conversational AI” neural networks will be popularized, whose generated content is less based on word-by-word prediction (like GPT-3) and more based on the semantics and concepts expressed by those words. ( 32% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by topherhunt on 2020-12-12; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by sjy on 2023-02-24.
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Bellingcat releases a report on the suspected identity of QAnon (aka Q) within five months ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2020-12-11; known on 2021-05-11; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2021-05-12.
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Apple will release to the general public a merged, single version of their iOS and Mac OS operating systems by the end of 2022 ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by separo on 2020-12-08; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by jazzsolo on 2023-03-21.
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Will NYC's snowfall in 2020-2021 be below average? ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-12-01; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2022-01-04.
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[For coronavirus 2019] Mortality rate of total pop in America will be under .01% by 2021. ( 31% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by lazarus on 2020-03-05; known on 2020-06-16; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-23.
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Over 50 Australians die from COVID-19 by 30 June 2020, as reported by the Department of Health ( 79% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sjy on 2020-03-02; known on 2020-06-30; judged right by sjy on 2020-05-17.
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A hole will be drilled down to Earth's mantle by 2090. ( 39% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-29; known on 2090-01-01.
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Fully artificial kidney will be publicly available by 2042. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-29; known on 2042-01-01.
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A male birth control pill will be commercially available in the US or EU by 2045. ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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Health – Before the end of 2024 at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated from a laboratory. ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-28; known on 2025-01-01.
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Donald Trump will NOT be re-elected ( 55% confidence; 26 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by tcsmithbiz@yahoo.com on 2019-12-23; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2020-11-07.
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[Gaydar] Saoirse Ronan (Saoirse Una Ronan) comes out as queer ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2018-12-21; known on 2068-12-22.
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The RTX 2080 Ti will see an official price reduction (MSRP) of at least 300$ before the end of 2019. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jazzsolo on 2018-12-03; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by jazzsolo on 2020-01-01.
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Tumblr will revert the decision to ban pornography (to take effect in Dec 17) in the next 3 months. ( 33% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jazzsolo on 2018-12-03; known on 2019-03-03; judged wrong by jazzsolo on 2019-03-04.
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Half-Life 3 will be released in the next 100 years. ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jazzsolo on 2018-12-03; known on 2118-12-31.
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Half-Life 3 will be released in the next 30 years. ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jazzsolo on 2018-12-03; known on 2048-12-31.
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Half-Life 3 will be released in the next 10 years. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by jazzsolo on 2018-12-03; known on 2028-12-31.
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Half-Life 3 will be released in the next 5 years ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by jazzsolo on 2018-12-03; known on 2023-12-31.
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Oculus will not realese a headset more expensive than 500$ in the next 5 years. ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jazzsolo on 2018-12-01; known on 2023-12-01.
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By 2021, there is a company with >$100M net profit whose core product critically depends on blockchain. ( 15% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2018-12-01; known on 2021-12-31; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-01.
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Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX) ( 3% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Leo on 2018-10-23; known on 2028-10-23.
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People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts. ( 33% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Leo on 2018-10-21; known on 2028-10-21.
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Trump wins Nobel ( 10% confidence; 41 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2018-05-03; known on 2030-01-01.
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Donald Trump will not be impeached or resign in his first term ( 66% confidence; 33 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Bismagician on 2017-05-18; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by CaelumCodicem on 2019-12-19.
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Trump will win a second term ( 46% confidence; 74 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2020-11-08; judged wrong by regex on 2020-11-20.
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Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus. ( 99% confidence; 23 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-29; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2023-01-01.