Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 53% | 64% | 73% | 80% | 93% | 94% | |
Sample Size | 136 | 202 | 169 | 255 | 784 | 225 | 1771 |
Displaying all predictions made by Baeboo. Filter by:
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[Politics] The EU to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q2 EOQ ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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[Politics] The US to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q1 EOQ ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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[Politics] Canada to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q1 EOQ ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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[Politics] The US to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q2 EOQ ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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China's Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) to see at least one loan default by 2019 Q1 EOQ ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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China's Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) to see at least one loan default by 2019 Q2 EOQ ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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China's Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) to see at least one loan default by 2019 Q3 EOQ ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-01.
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China's Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) to see at least one loan default by 2019 EOY ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.
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“May still in power” ( 38% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2019-08-31.
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“Xi still in power” ( 96% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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“No other EU country announces plan to leave” ( 85% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-01.
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“Britain holds second Brexit referendum” ( 22% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-01-01.
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“No city where a member of the general public can ride self-driving car without attendant” ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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“Bitcoin above Ethereum” ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-01.
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“Bitcoin above 5000” ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-01.
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“Bitcoin above 3000” ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-01.
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“Bitcoin above 1000” ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-01.
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“Beto O’Rourke leads the Democratic field” ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-01-02.
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[Politics] Trump will choose not to run for a second term in 2020. ( 14% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by KangaRookie on 2019-01-22; known on 2020-11-05; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-11-04.
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Emperor Akihito to abdicate as scheduled on 2019-04-30 ( 93% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-21; known on 2019-05-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-30.
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Taiwan to declare independence in 2019 H1 ( 2% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-21; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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[Fighting] Khabib Nurmagomedov's next fight to be against Tony Ferguson, and to happen in 2019 H1 ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-21; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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“DeepMind will release an AlphaZero update, or new app, capable of beating humans and existing computer programs at a task in a new domain” ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-07.
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“The United Kingdom will leave the European Union” ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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“Donald Trump will still be in office” ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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1 or more “CRISPR babies” will be announced before the end of 2019 ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Selentelechia on 2019-01-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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Trump will remain president as of January 1st, 2020 ( 89% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Selentelechia on 2019-01-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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[Politics] Either Juan Guaidó or Nicolás Maduro to flee Venezuela in 2019 Q1. ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-15; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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[Politics] Nicolás Maduro to resign as president of Venezuela in 2019 Q1. ( 9% confidence; 15 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-15; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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North Korea to test a nuclear weapon in 2019 ( 26% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-11; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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US & China to announce end to trade war in Q1 2019. ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-09; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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One of {Uber, Twitter, Tumblr, Facebook, Magic Leap, Coinbase} will collapse. ( 58% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-08; known on 2025-01-01.
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[The average spot price of Brent crude oil in March 2019 will be] less than $50/barrel ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-04; known on 2019-04-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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[The average spot price of Brent crude oil in March 2019 will be] between $50 and $60/barrel ( 18% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-04; known on 2019-04-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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[The average spot price of Brent crude oil in March 2019 will be] between $60 and $70/barrel ( 51% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-04; known on 2019-04-05; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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[The average spot price of Brent crude oil in March 2019 will be] greater than $70/barrel ( 14% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-04; known on 2019-04-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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Politics, US – Trump declares a state of emergency prior to the 1st of February 2019. ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2019-01-07; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-02-08.
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All charges against Meng Wanzhou to be dropped in Q1 2019. ( 19% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-04; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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Donald Trump to be impeached in 2019 ( 24% confidence; 25 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-19.
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Same-sex marriage to be legalized in at least one more EU member in 2019. ( 29% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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Brent crude to be above $60/barrel by end of January ( 61% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-02-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-02-01.
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South Korea to sign a peace treaty with North Korea in 2019. ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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Mauricio Macri is re-elected President of Argentina ( 44% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-12-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-11-03.
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The Chavista regime rules Venezuela ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Top 10 by market cap coins on CMC will have more than one stable coin ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Nve on 2018-12-29; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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Politics, UK – There is a new prime minister of the United Kingdom before 1 July 2019, and they're from the Labour Party. ( 15% confidence; 14 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-22; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2019-07-03.
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Politics, UK – There is a new prime minister of the United Kingdom before 1 July 2019, and they're from the Conservative Party. ( 29% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-22; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-09.
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Politics, UK – Before 30 March 2019, the UK revokes Article 50. ( 10% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-22; known on 2019-03-30; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-03-30.
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Politics, UK – Before 30 March 2019, the UK and European Council agree to extend the Article 50 deadline. ( 46% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-22; known on 2019-03-30; judged right by jbeshir on 2019-03-30.
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Vladimir Putin won't be the President of the Russian Federation by March 2024 (i.e. he won't be able to finish his 4th term) ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Stommelen on 2018-12-21; known on 2024-03-17.
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Britain will have a second referendum on “Brexit.” ( 18% confidence; 19 wagers )
Created by balfours_ghost on 2018-12-11; known on 2019-03-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-04-24.
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Politics – North Korea conducts a nuclear test before 1 January 2020. ( 36% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Tumblr will revert the decision to ban pornography (to take effect in Dec 17) in the next 3 months. ( 33% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jazzsolo on 2018-12-03; known on 2019-03-03; judged wrong by jazzsolo on 2019-03-04.
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By 2021, there is a company with >$100M net profit whose core product critically depends on blockchain. ( 15% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2018-12-01; known on 2021-12-31; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-01.
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Econ -The Bank of England's Bank Rate on 1 April 2019 is between 0.26% and 0.5% inclusive. ( 18% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-24; known on 2019-04-02; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-04-15.
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US will have universal health care system by 2026 ( 42% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by amadeu on 2018-11-12; known on 2026-12-31.
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US will have universal health care system by 2022 ( 13% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by amadeu on 2018-11-12; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-01-01.
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By 1/1/2022 GE stock will be at $15 or more a share. ( 17% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by bogusia_k on 2018-11-12; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2022-01-02.
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23 or more US senators will be women by the end of January 2019 ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukefreeman on 2018-08-30; known on 2019-01-31; judged right by lukefreeman on 2019-01-31.
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Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX) ( 3% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Leo on 2018-10-23; known on 2028-10-23.
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People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts. ( 33% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Leo on 2018-10-21; known on 2028-10-21.
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EA Grants makes the majority of their applications public knowledge by the end of October 19, 2019 (UTC). ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-10-19; known on 2019-10-19; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2019-10-19.
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EA Grants makes the majority of their grant decisions and amounts publicly accessible by October 19, 2019 (UTC) ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-10-19; known on 2019-10-19; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2019-10-19.
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Next US financial crash, and consequent recession to hit between December of 2018, and March of 2019 ( 12% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sdr on 2018-10-19; known on 2019-05-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-05-01.
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Politics, US – Kavanaugh is confirmed to SCOTUS before the 7th of November 2018. ( 86% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-29; known on 2018-11-07; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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The cost of one TFLOPS will be more than $0.9375 by 2029. ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-02; known on 2029-03-02.
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There will be less people cryogenically frozen in China than in the US by 2028. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-02; known on 2028-08-13.
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SpaceX will land people on Mars prior to 2030 ( 45% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukefreeman on 2018-08-28; known on 2030-01-01.
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Trump will not be re-elected in 2020 ( 58% confidence; 18 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by SeriousPod on 2018-08-02; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by avi on 2020-11-07.
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Donald Trump will be reelected. ( 44% confidence; 22 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by alvastarr on 2018-07-26; known on 2020-11-05; judged wrong by avi on 2020-11-07.
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It's a test prediction ( 57% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Joy on 2018-06-30; known on 2018-07-14; judged right by pranomostro on 2018-12-19.
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Demonstration of energy-positive fusion power plant by the end of 2035. ( 31% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2018-05-10; known on 2035-12-31.
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Taiwan will declare independence in 2018. ( 1% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Trump wins Nobel ( 10% confidence; 41 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2018-05-03; known on 2030-01-01.
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Rationalist Community – LessWrong.com has at least 20 front page posts approved during December 2018 ( 77% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.
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Rationalist Community – Slate Star Codex gets mentioned in the New York Times (by someone other than Ross Douthat) between 1st of July and end of 2018 ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.
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Technology – Ethereum market cap is below Bitcoin market cap at end of 2018 ( 85% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.
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Technology – The price of a bitcoin is over $10,000 at the end of 2018. ( 26% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
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Politics, Libya – Libya still has two rival governments on January 1, 2019 ( 78% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.
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Politics, Middle East – Iran withdraws from the deal limiting its nuclear program before the end of 2018. ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.
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Politics, Middle East – Fatah and Hamas do not meaningfully reconcile in 2018 (e.g. Fatah still doesn't control Gaza by January 1, 2019) ( 91% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Trumps approval rating never rises above 50% in 2018 ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
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Trumps approval rating never dips below 30% in 2018 ( 84% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
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Serious impeachment proceedings begin against Trump ( 22% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
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Trump is president at years end ( 91% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
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There is no deadly confrontation between North Korea and US armed Forces in 2018 ( 99% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Kamala Harris ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-17; known on 2020-09-16; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Joe Biden ( 32% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-17; known on 2020-09-16; judged right by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Cory Booker ( 7% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-17; known on 2020-09-16; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Bernie Sanders ( 13% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-17; known on 2020-09-16; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
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Bitcoin will be <15k on January 1st 2019. ( 74% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-17; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Cyber attack on UK with Russia clearly identified as culprit in 2018, described as retaliation for Syria bombing. ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-04-16; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.
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World War 3 to begin in 2018. (Formal war involving at least three large, developed nations, with some on separate sides). ( 0% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-04-16; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2019-01-01.
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Donald Trump will lose the next election. ( 62% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-04-03; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-11-07.
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US National Debt will cross $22 trillion by December 31, 2018. ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dakyne on 2018-03-26; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-01-01.
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“Bitcoin will be the world’s ‘single currency’ in 10 years” ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2018-03-21; known on 2028-03-21; judged unknown by Bruno Parga on 2018-04-09.
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Etherium will be more valuable than Bitcoin. ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by s.zirai@live.de on 2018-03-20; known on 2019-03-20; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-03-21.
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Brexit will successfully have take place by August 2019 ( 32% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Finma on 2018-03-03; known on 2019-01-08; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-02.
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Bitcoin will end 2018 above $50,000 USD ( 19% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by daedalus_21 on 2018-02-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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PredictIt shows Bernie Sanders having highest chance to be Dem nominee at end of 2018. ( 35% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-02; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2019-01-02.