Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Japanese television shows and series tag will be lower for April 2017 than for April 2016. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-01; known on 2017-05-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-01.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the mammals tag will be lower for April 2017 than for April 2016. ( 56% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-01; known on 2017-05-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-01.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Countries tag will be lower for April 2017 than for April 2016. ( 53% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-01; known on 2017-05-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-01.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Colors tag will be lower for April 2017 than for April 2016. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-01; known on 2017-05-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-01.
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Before May 2017 there will be a sub-$1000 (USD, pre-tax/shipping) VR HMD with >= 2K pixels (either direction) per eye, shipping to at least some of the general public ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-25; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-05-01.
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Before May 2017, we will see authentic video footage of Donald Trump in the same room as one or more women urinating on a bed ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-11; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-05-01.
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National Guard called in to shut down #WomensMarch, at least 1 dead ( 19% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-22; known on 2017-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-30.
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Andrew Dice Clay provides comedy at the White House Correspondents' Dinne ( 9% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-19; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-30.
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Jimmy Fallon provides comedy at the White House Correspondents' Dinner ( 8% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-19; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-30.
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Jeff Foxworthy provides comedy at the White House Correspondents' Dinner ( 9% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-19; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-30.
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President Trump will break from recent tradition and have either more than one comedic act the White House Correspondents' Dinner, or no comedian at all. ( 19% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by atomicspacemann on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-05-05; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-30.
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Tear gas deployed in Berkeley today ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-27; known on 2017-04-29; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-04-30.
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Fires started during the Berkeley protest today ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-27; known on 2017-04-29; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-04-30.
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North Korea conducts a nuclear test within 21 days [2017-04-09] ( 51% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-04-09; known on 2017-04-30; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-04-30.
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Milo Yiannopoulos provides light hearted commentary as comedic relief during White House Correspondents' Dinner ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-19; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-04-30.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep between Sunday 23 April and Sunday 30 April. ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Mike on 2017-04-24; known on 2017-04-30; judged wrong by Mike on 2017-04-30.
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I made top 200 on the Putnam. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by azax1 on 2016-12-06; known on 2017-04-02; judged wrong by azax1 on 2017-04-29.
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Median score on the Putnam this year is >= 5. ( 60% confidence )
Created by azax1 on 2016-12-04; known on 2017-03-31; judged wrong by azax1 on 2017-04-29.
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By 2017-04-16 Sun: I buy Olympic weightlifting shoes, squat shoes, or other shoes I deem similar (currently intended in plurality for squatting). ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-04-01; known on 2017-04-17; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-04-29.
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There will be a Wikipedia page about Vipul Naik's paid editing of Wikipedia, as of April 1, 2018. ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-12; known on 2018-04-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2018-04-02.
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Google Project Glass will survive 5 years ( 57% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-03; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-28.
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I drop out of the ultraworking pentathlon ( 33% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-13; known on 2017-05-01; judged right by ioannes on 2017-04-25.
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Politics, US – A member of the Trump campaign is arrested in connection with an investigation into communications with Russian agents or the Russian government before the end of 2017-04-22. ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-15; known on 2017-04-23; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-04-24.
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President of France 2017 elections: Benoît Hamon (Parti Socialiste)(Incumbent Party) won't make it past the first round ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-04-23; known on 2017-04-30; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-24.
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President of France 2017 elections: Someone that is not Macron, Fillon, Le Pen or Melenchon makes to second round or wins on first round ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2017-04-23; known on 2017-04-25; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-04-24.
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President of France 2017 elections: Melenchon makes to second round or wins on first round ( 29% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2017-04-23; known on 2017-04-25; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-04-24.
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President of France 2017 elections: Le Pen makes to second round or wins on first round ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2017-04-23; known on 2017-04-25; judged right by kuudes on 2017-04-24.
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President of France 2017 elections: Fillon makes to second round or wins on first round ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2017-04-23; known on 2017-04-25; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-04-24.
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Three or more dates in the next 10 days ( 70% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-13; known on 2017-04-24; judged right by ioannes on 2017-04-24.
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President of France 2017 elections: Macron makes to second round or wins on first round ( 73% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2017-04-23; known on 2017-04-25; judged right by playablecharacter on 2017-04-24.
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The message is from Em. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-23; known on 2017-04-23; judged right by Somni on 2017-04-23.
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I will go to the seder tonight. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-17; known on 2017-04-17; judged right by Somni on 2017-04-23.
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North Korea conducts a nuclear test within 14 days [2017-04-09] ( 48% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-04-09; known on 2017-04-23; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-04-23.
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Ron headcannons Skitter as a trans girl. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-23; known on 2017-04-23; judged right by Somni on 2017-04-23.
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English is Gab's second language. ( 65% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-23; known on 2017-04-23; judged wrong by Somni on 2017-04-23.
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Steem breaks first in test 1. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-22; known on 2017-04-23; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-22.
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Palemoon breaks first in test 1. ( 59% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-22; known on 2017-04-23; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-22.
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Something else breaks in test 1 ( 1% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-22; known on 2017-04-23; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-22.
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I will get that elective surgery before the end of June. ( 70% confidence )
Created by imaxwell on 2017-01-10; known on 2017-06-30; judged right by imaxwell on 2017-04-21.
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No snap UK general election held this year. ( 55% confidence )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by technicalities on 2017-04-19.
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Russia is found guilty of crimes against humanity at the ICJ ( 51% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-19; known on 2017-04-19; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-19.
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Fox News cuts ties with Bill O'Reilly ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-04-19; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-04-19.
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I will cancel Netflix before my trial ends ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-12; known on 2017-05-04; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-19.
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terrorist attack in boston on the day of the boston marathon (unsuccessful attempts included) ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2017-04-17; known on 2017-04-19; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2017-04-19.
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User “npcuck” will go to Sakura-Con ( 6% confidence )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-31; known on 2017-04-17; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-04-17.
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The Turkish constitutional referendum that makes the country a presidential republic will pass. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-03-03; known on 2017-04-18; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2017-04-17.
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“Yes” succeeds in Turkey's referendum ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-04-17; judged right by ioannes on 2017-04-17.
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Second date with J ( 50% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-21; known on 2017-04-15; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-04-17.
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Will discuss paperwork with Fib for at least 20 minutes today. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-04-15; judged right by Somni on 2017-04-16.
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Trump executive order on immigration will not be in force on April 15, 2017 in an unmodified form. ( 80% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2017-02-13; known on 2017-04-15; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-04-15.