Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 100% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
Displaying all predictions made by darkdaemon. Filter by:
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The prophecy in HPMR refers to Harry and Death, not Harry and Voldemort. ( 13% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-23; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.
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In HPMOR, Voldemort is/was at some point in the form of a disembodied spirit. ( 61% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ygert on 2012-12-18; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Unknowns on 2015-02-21.
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We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ( 24% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by drethelin on 2012-12-23; known on 2062-12-23.
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By January 31, 2013, the confidence on this prediction will be between 40 – 60%. ( 43% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by edwga on 2012-12-20; known on 2013-01-31; judged right by edwga on 2013-01-31.
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Tom Claburn, Info Week: Google Buys Pinterest or Etsy in 2013 ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-12-17; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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“Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-31.