Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 20% | 75% | 80% | 43% | 88% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 5 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 7 | 44 |
Displaying all predictions made by azatris. Filter by:
-
First Starship attempt to reach orbit or near orbit will either never reach supersonic speed or will break up before reaching Max Q. ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-12-23; known on 2024-01-01.
-
Worldwide deaths in 2022 to exceed 90 million people. ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-12-26; known on 2023-01-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-15.
-
A Fortune 500 company (besides Tesla) within the next 3 months will announce they have bought Bitcoin ( 37% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kadavy on 2021-03-01; known on 2021-06-01; judged wrong by kadavy on 2021-06-01.
-
joe biden dies in presidency ( 5% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-26; known on 2025-02-26.
-
humans on mars before 2030 ( 24% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-26; known on 2030-02-26.
-
Josh and I will still be good friends next month (talk at least once this month) ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-03-14; judged right by htaussig on 2021-02-16.
-
No one in the EA group will miss 3 weeks in a row ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-08; known on 2021-03-22; judged right by htaussig on 2021-03-22.
-
bitcoin worth 66k+ in a year ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-08; known on 2022-02-08; judged wrong by pdf on 2022-02-11.
-
50% of people are vaccinated in 5 months ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-07; known on 2021-07-06; judged wrong by htaussig on 2021-07-14.
-
World War 3 next year ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-07; known on 2022-02-06; judged wrong by meedstrom on 2022-02-13.
-
DOGE reaches $1 USD before 2021-02-14 ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by technillogue on 2021-01-29; known on 2021-02-14; judged wrong by azatris on 2021-02-15.
-
GME will reach $1000 at some point before 1 March 2021. ( 13% confidence; 22 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by galaga on 2021-01-29; known on 2021-03-01; judged wrong by galaga on 2021-03-01.
-
By July 2021, China will invade Taiwan. The invasion will take longer than anticipated and as a result China will use biological weapons. The USA and EU will do nothing. ( 4% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Random on 2021-01-11; known on 2021-07-31; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-07-31.
-
Derek Chauvin will be convicted of murder ( 49% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by enolan on 2020-06-17; known on 2021-04-30; judged right by Deepak on 2021-04-20.
-
The S&P 500 is above its current (2020-07-18) level on 2021-01-01 ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ayegill on 2020-07-18; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by azatris on 2021-01-01.
-
One or more participants in the Twitter hack is revealed to have been an employee of the Russian government ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-18; known on 2028-01-31.
-
Harvard University will have in-person classes for Spring 2021 ( 47% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-03; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2021-10-13.
-
Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31 ( 13% confidence; 27 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by daveisright on 2020-07-02; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2020-12-31.
-
Vox Media publishes an article on one of their official news sites about the SSC-NYT affair by the end of the year ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-06-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.
-
At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site ( 78% confidence; 13 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-06-24; known on 2021-01-02; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.
-
Scott Alexander will be doxed by the NYT ( 38% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by akarlin on 2020-06-23; known on 2020-07-08; judged right by 1MillionAffen on 2021-06-22.
-
I will be banned on Twitter (@akarlin88) ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by akarlin on 2020-06-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by akarlin on 2021-01-01.
-
TSLA to split stocks by end of 2020 ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by azatris on 2020-06-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-09-13.
-
Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-21; known on 2029-01-01.
-
Poland will legalize gay marriage by 2030, see https://www.unz.com/akarlin/poland-will-legalize-gay-marriage-within-10-years/ ( 69% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by akarlin on 2020-06-17; known on 2030-01-01.
-
Elizabeth Warren is Joe Biden's running mate ( 27% confidence; 14 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-15; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-08-12.
-
At least 50% of code on github will be generated by language models or their successors on January 1 2030. ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by amrav on 2020-06-13; known on 2030-01-01.
-
SpaceX's Starship to do a flight at least 1 km up by February 20, 2021. ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-09; known on 2021-02-22; judged right by kuudes on 2021-02-20.
-
North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020 ( 5% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
-
Minnesota to break the longest Democrat-voting streak by 2030 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-03; known on 2031-01-01.
-
Trump to be diagnosed with dementia sometime by 2030 ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-02; known on 2031-01-01.
-
S&P 500 index retests 2200 by the end of 2020 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-04-17; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2021-01-01.
-
Trump wins the 2020 election. ( 41% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by azatris on 2020-04-18; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-07.
-
Boris Johnson dies by end of April 2020 (due to Coronavirus) ( 11% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-04-06; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2020-05-01.
-
There will be no state- or nation-wide McDonald’s closures (other than closure of the dining area) due to COVID-19 in Australia in 2020 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sjy on 2020-03-29; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by sjy on 2021-01-03.
-
U.S. 10yr Treasury yield dips below 0.5% in second quarter of 2020 ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-03-27; known on 2020-06-30; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-06-30.
-
S&P 500 index dips below 2000 in year of 2020 ( 32% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-03-27; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-12-31.
-
Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020 ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-03-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
-
SPX reaches 4000 by the end of 2021 ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-03-10; known on 2021-12-31; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2021-10-01.
-
Tesla stock trades below $150 on or before 2 May 2020 ( 3% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by separo on 2019-05-19; known on 2020-05-02; judged wrong by separo on 2020-05-03.
-
France holds 'leave EU' referendum ( 19% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2020-07-24; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2020-07-30.
-
2016 will be the hottest year ever recorded (since historical records began) ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-02; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-01-18.
-
PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020 ( 83% confidence; 40 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
-
The place I will be living in in Edinburgh in 2014/15 academic year will have been booked (or near equivalent) before I have landed in the UK. ( 55% confidence )
Created by azatris on 2014-08-16; known on 2014-09-15; judged wrong by azatris on 2014-09-15.
-
Vladimir Putin to be awarded the 2014 Nobel Peace Prize ( 1% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-19; known on 2014-10-10; judged wrong by qznc on 2014-10-10.
-
Google will survive for 15 more years ( 91% confidence; 29 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-05-19; known on 2028-05-19.