Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 50% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
Displaying all predictions made by Sophronius. Filter by:
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LW: average IQ in survey will be at or above the 98th percentile and thus eligible for Mensa membership. ( 66% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Robert Kosten on 2011-11-01; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-04.
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LW: average IQ in survey will be 140-145. ( 33% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-11-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-04.
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“Magnitude 8.0 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.