Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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[US Democratic primary: New York winner to be] Bernie Sanders ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-24.
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[US Democratic primary: New York winner to be] Elizabeth Warren ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-24.
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[US Democratic primary: New York winner to be] Andrew Yang ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-24.
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[US Democratic primary: New York winner to be] Kamala Harris ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-24.
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[US Democratic primary: New York winner to be] Cory Booker ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-24.
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[US Democratic primary: New York winner to be] Beto O'Rourke ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-24.
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[US Democratic primary: New York winner to be] Pete Buttigieg ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-24.
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[US Democratic primary: New York winner to be] Julian Castro ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-24.
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[US Democratic primary: New York winner to be] Amy Klobuchar ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-24.
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[US Democratic primary: New York winner to be] any other candidate ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-24.
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[US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Joe Biden ( 34% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-20; judged right by Cato on 2020-06-24.
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[US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Elizabeth Warren ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-24.
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[US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Bernie Sanders ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-24.
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[US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Andrew Yang ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-24.
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[US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Kamala Harris ( 3% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-24.
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[US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Pete Buttigieg ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-24.
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[US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Cory Booker ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-24.
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[US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Beto O'Rourke ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-24.
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[US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Julian Castro ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-24.
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[US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Amy Klobuchar ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-24.
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[US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] any other candidate ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-24.
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[US Democratic primary: Indiana winner to be] Joe Biden ( 31% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-05; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-23.
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[For coronavirus 2019] Mortality rate of total pop in America will be under .01% by 2021. ( 31% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by lazarus on 2020-03-05; known on 2020-06-16; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-23.
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[For coronavirus 2019] most danger will be gone by June 15th, 2020. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lazarus on 2020-03-05; known on 2020-06-16; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-23.
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Beto O'Rourke becomes the 2020 Democratic nominee ( 11% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-15; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-22.
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[Politics] The Mueller investigation will not produce any criminal charges against Trump ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by RedScharlach on 2019-02-15; known on 2020-11-03; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-22.
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[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for May 2020 to exceed 110 ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2020-06-25; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-22.
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German Corona warning app goes live in June ( 70% confidence )
Created by qznc on 2020-06-07; known on 2020-07-01; judged right by qznc on 2020-06-21.
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Politics, US – Geoffrey Berman, the US Attorney in Manhattan, resigns or is fired by the end of July 2020. ( 30% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-20; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-21.
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The English Premier League (professional football league) will cancel the remainder of the 2019/2020 season ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by panashe on 2020-05-09; known on 2020-07-31; judged right by panashe on 2020-06-20.
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HP MoR: Harry will, at some point in the story or an epilogue, literally tear apart stars (for star lifting purposes perhaps), and this is what the “tear apart the very stars in heaven” phrase in the prophecy was referring to. ( 62% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-28; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-31.
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Politics, UK – Scottish government states that people can visit friends at their homes again by end of June. ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-15; known on 2020-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-06-20.
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[Top Chef will be won by] Melissa ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Deepak on 2020-06-11; known on 2020-06-19; judged right by Deepak on 2020-06-19.
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[Top Chef will be won by] Bryan ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Deepak on 2020-06-11; known on 2020-06-19; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-06-19.
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[Top Chef will be won by] Stephanie ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Deepak on 2020-06-11; known on 2020-06-19; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-06-19.
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[For coronavirus 2019] Fear will subside by June 15th, 2020. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lazarus on 2020-03-05; known on 2020-06-16; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-18.
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Pete Buttigieg will win the democratic primary ( 17% confidence; 18 wagers )
Created by skuthus on 2019-11-27; known on 2020-06-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-17.
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Hezbollah disbanded by 2020 ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jach on 2012-09-19; known on 2020-06-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-17.
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I will continue to use Emacs, StumpWM & Screen as my primary workflow for four more years ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ejlflop on 2016-06-16; known on 2020-06-16; judged right by ejlflop on 2020-06-16.
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The picture of the penis-shaped Christian Science church in Dixon (IL) with the bursting water pipe is doctored. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Leo on 2020-06-14; known on 2020-06-14; judged right by Leo on 2020-06-14.
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The guest for The Joe Rogan Experience podcast episode #1488 will be politically left-of-center or anti-politics. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by AndreBaptiste on 2020-05-02; known on 2020-05-29; judged wrong by jamesrom on 2020-06-13.
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[Top Chef will be won by] Kevin ( 30% confidence )
Created by Deepak on 2020-06-11; known on 2020-06-19; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-06-12.
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80,000 COVID-19 deaths in U.S. by July ( 80% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-04-06; known on 2020-07-31; judged right by MultiplyByZer0 on 2020-06-12.
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A general-purpose artificial intelligence comparable to or better than a human will not have been developed by the beginning of 2020. ( 82% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Richard_Kennaway on 2010-08-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by MultiplyByZer0 on 2020-06-12.
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[US FOMC June 2020 rate decision to be] leave rate unchanged ( 54% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-06-11; judged right by Cato on 2020-06-11.
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[US FOMC June 2020 rate decision to be] leave rate unchanged ( 54% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-06-11; judged right by Cato on 2020-06-11.
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[US FOMC June 2020 rate decision to be] reduce rate ( 36% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-06-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
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[US FOMC June 2020 rate decision to be] raise rate ( 6% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-06-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
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[Commodities: In at least one month between May 2019 and May 2020, Iraq crude oil production to fall below] 4 MMbpd ( 25% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-16; known on 2020-06-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
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[Commodities] Venezuela will produce 0 crude oil in at least one month between May 2019 and May 2020 ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-16; known on 2020-06-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.