Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 58% | 73% | 77% | 80% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 5 | 62 | 59 | 73 | 56 | 0 | 255 |
Displaying all predictions made by Adam Zerner. Filter by:
-
Our Ford Focus battery lasts 100,000 miles ( 90% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-11-30; known on 2022-11-30.
-
SendGrid's initial response fixes my issue ( 30% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-05; known on 2020-08-08.
-
[Zvi's article] Sees this week as negative ( 20% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-13; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-13.
-
[Zvi's article] Sees this week as neutral ( 20% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-13; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-13.
-
[Zvi's article] Sees this week as slightly positive ( 30% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-13; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-13.
-
[Zvi's article] Sees this week as moderately positive ( 20% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-13; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-13.
-
[Zvi's article] Sees this week as significantly positive ( 10% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-13; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-13.
-
I get all of my Anki's correct today except quicksort ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-11; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-12.
-
Next Ranking The Steelers article posted by Friday ( 40% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-15; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-15.
-
https://covid19-projections.com/ estimates <15% of the country has been infected ( 40% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-11; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11.
-
https://covid19-projections.com/ estimates less than 3% of Nevada is infected right now ( 40% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-11; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11.
-
Coronavirus cases for Nevada yesterday went up less than 2% ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-11; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11.
-
Coronavirus Nevada numbers are posted on Wikipedia for yesterday ( 30% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-11; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11.
-
Response from SendGrid this week ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-09; known on 2020-08-14; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-14.
-
I have more than 5 Anki's to do ( 40% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-11; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11.
-
Raptors are second in the east ( 90% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-11; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11.
-
Lakers are first or second in the west ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-11; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11.
-
NBA playoffs start next week ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-11; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11.
-
High is less than 110 today ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-11; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11.
-
Donald doesn't think I made significant mistakes in general ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-11; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-13.
-
Paperwork takes less than 15 minutes ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-11; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11.
-
Alex has an A in the addiction class ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-11; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11.
-
I'll finish reading Superforecasting this week ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by fandangos on 2020-08-10; known on 2020-08-16; judged right by fandangos on 2020-08-16.
-
Response from Facebook guy tomorrow ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-09; known on 2020-08-10; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-10.
-
SendGrid issue with attachments is already fixed ( 30% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-09; known on 2020-08-10; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11.
-
New Thinking Basketball podcast is available ( 30% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-09; known on 2020-08-10; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-09.
-
Therapy costs > $100/month for full access ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-09; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-09.
-
LeBron increases his ppg in the playoffs ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-09; known on 2020-10-09; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-10-12.
-
Coronavirus in Nevada numbers from yesterday are available now ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-09; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-09.
-
Coronavirus in Nevada went up more than 2% yesterday ( 20% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-09; known on 2020-08-09; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-09.
-
More than one regular season game left for the Pacers ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-09; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-09.
-
TJ Warren regresses and averages < 25ppg on <65 TS% from here until the end of the season + postseason ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-09; known on 2020-10-09; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-25.
-
[I'm able to see a doctor] today ( 40% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06; known on 2020-08-12.
-
[I'm able to see a doctor] by tomorrow ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06; known on 2020-08-12.
-
[I'm able to see a doctor] by the end of next week ( 90% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06; known on 2020-08-12.
-
[Zvi's article] Mentions the election ( 40% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06; known on 2020-08-06; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06.
-
[Zvi's article] Mentions that all sports should be in a bubble ( 30% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06; known on 2020-08-06; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06.
-
[Zvi's article] interprets the week as negative overall ( 20% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06; known on 2020-08-06; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06.
-
[Zvi's article] interprets the week as strongly positive overall ( 20% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06; known on 2020-08-06; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06.
-
[Zvi's article] interprets the week as moderately positive overall ( 30% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06; known on 2020-08-06; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06.
-
[Zvi's article] interprets the week as weakly positive overall ( 30% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06; known on 2020-08-06; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06.
-
Sprouts order matches what I ordered ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06; known on 2020-08-06; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-08.
-
Able to find Pete via reference number ( 90% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06; known on 2020-08-06; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06.
-
Answer right away next time I call ( 30% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06; known on 2020-08-06; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06.
-
I'll be able to order $300+ of food from Sprouts ( 90% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-05; known on 2020-08-05.
-
Daily increase in coronavirus cases is >= 2.0% ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-05; known on 2020-08-05; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-05.
-
Sprouts has frozen green peas in stock ( 90% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-05; known on 2020-08-05; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06.
-
SendGrid responds to my help request this week ( 40% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-05; known on 2020-08-08; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-08.
-
I can get free Sprouts delivery from Sprouts ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-05; known on 2020-08-05; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-06.
-
I come in first, second or third in poker ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-04; known on 2020-08-04.
-
All the officers charged in the George Floyd case will be exonerated or there will be a hung jury. ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by unseen on 2020-08-05; known on 2022-08-04; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2022-08-04.
-
Podcast runs for 2+ hours ( 40% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-04; known on 2020-08-04; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-04.
-
[In the Thinking Basketball podcast episode about the NBA restart Taylor will say] it helps the Clippers ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-08-03.
-
90%+ on quiz ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-03; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-03.
-
The answer is body talk ( 90% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-03; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-03.
-
I get the emailing a spreadsheet thing working today ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-08-03; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-03.
-
[In the Thinking Basketball podcast episode about the NBA restart Taylor will say] it hurts the Nuggets ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-08-03; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-04.
-
[In the Thinking Basketball podcast episode about the NBA restart Taylor will say] it helps the Lakers ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-08-03; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-04.
-
[In the Thinking Basketball podcast episode about the NBA restart Taylor will say] it hurts the Raptors ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-08-03; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-04.
-
[In the Thinking Basketball podcast episode about the NBA restart Taylor will say] it helps the Sixers (my reason is because of their home vs away record and bad seed) ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-08-03; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-04.
-
Noodles taste better cold ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-08-02; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02.
-
[___ is in the next three in the Ranking The Steelers series] Steven Nelson ( 20% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-08-03; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-15.
-
[___ is in the next three in the Ranking The Steelers series] Joe Haden ( 10% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-08-03; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-15.
-
Devin Bush is in the next three for the Ranking The Steelers series ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-08-03; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-15.
-
Tyson Alualu starts at NT week one ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-09-16; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-09-16.
-
Bucks beat Rockets ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-08-03; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-03.
-
MLB season is shut down or significantly altered (eg. introduce a bubble) ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-31; known on 2020-10-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10.
-
Guy wants the basic plan | makes the purchase ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-31; known on 2020-07-26; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-01.
-
Guy ends up making the purchase ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-31; known on 2020-07-26; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-01.
-
The bug is because the batch add endpoint not doing enough ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-31; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-01.
-
A team signs Antonio Brown | football season not cancelled ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-31; known on 2020-12-16; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2022-12-05.
-
I get the bugs fixed and sending working today ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-31; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-01.
-
Felipe emails me back today ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-31; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-01.
-
Zvi interprets this week as at least moderately better than expected ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-30; known on 2020-07-30; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-30.
-
Brian invites me back to play poker ( 30% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-30; known on 2020-08-30; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-04.
-
I get Twilio working today ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-30; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-31.
-
Alex gets an A on her essay ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-30; known on 2020-08-06; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11.
-
At least one NBA team has 5+ players infected with the COVID ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-30; known on 2020-10-13; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-10-07.
-
NBA makes it through the bubble without a league-wide shutdown ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-30; known on 2020-10-13; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-10-07.
-
Clippers win ( 50% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-30; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-31.
-
I figure out the Heroku deployment issue ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-29; known on 2020-07-29; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-29.
-
grunt-node-inspector is the issue with my Heroku deployment ( 40% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-29; known on 2020-07-29; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-29.
-
The Atlas bug is due to my password being incorrect ( 40% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-29; known on 2020-07-29; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-29.
-
I figure out the Atlas bug ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-29; known on 2020-07-29; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-29.
-
The mLab -> Atlas bug is due to that connectivity step ( 20% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-28; known on 2020-07-29.
-
I get all of my Anki cards correct today ( 10% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-28; known on 2020-07-28; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-29.
-
I get the database migration for Poker Club Tools working by the end of the day ( 20% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-28; known on 2020-07-29; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-28.
-
Customer support responds by 6pm ( 20% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-28; known on 2020-07-28; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-28.
-
I'm able to finish all of the database migrations by 6pm ( 20% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-27; known on 2020-07-27; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-28.
-
George Floyd will be Time Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020. ( 14% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JohnGreer on 2020-07-25; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-07.
-
Anthony Fauci will become TIME magazine's person of the year 2020 ( 22% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-25; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2021-01-01.
-
Conditioned on me playing at least 2000 hands, I will be a losing poker player by the end of August ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-08-31; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-09-01.
-
Bol Bol's block to 3 is the play of the night ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-23; known on 2020-07-23; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-23.
-
Startups in Depth has over 50 plays ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-22; known on 2020-08-12; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-09.
-
Startups in Depth has over 500 plays ( 20% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-22; known on 2020-08-12; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11.
-
I get a job offer from Google ( 50% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-22; known on 2020-10-22; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-10-23.
-
Facebook gives me an interview ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-22; known on 2020-08-23; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-28.
-
I pass the phone screen for Google ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-22; known on 2020-09-23; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-09-11.
-
I get a job offer from Reddit ( 30% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-22; known on 2020-09-22; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2022-12-05.
-
Reddit gives me an interview ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-22; known on 2020-08-12; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2022-12-05.