Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 47% | 56% | 62% | 81% | 93% | 97% | |
Sample Size | 180 | 158 | 278 | 220 | 320 | 36 | 1192 |
Displaying all predictions made by EloiseRosen. Filter by:
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Attention Deficit Disorder more prevalent in hacker community(based on multiple, broad criteria) than baseline at a statistically significant level (at least in 2010s) ( 63% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee for President in 2016. ( 52% confidence; 88 wagers; 55 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-14; known on 2016-07-20; judged right by elephantower on 2016-07-16.
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Hillary Clinton wins the presidential election 2016 ( 64% confidence; 26 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2016-07-04; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Conditional on Bill O'Reilly's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of having Narcissistic Personality Disorder [NPD]. ( 54% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-01; known on 2066-07-01.
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Conditional on Vladimir Putin's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of being on the autistic spectrum/having aspergers. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-01; known on 2066-07-01.
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Conditional on Donald Trump's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of being on the autistic spectrum/having aspergers. ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-01; known on 2066-07-01.
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US economic collapse before mar 2017: many banks fail, emergency measures taken by US fed taken & fail, mass drop in available credit, and at least 2 international news sources(la monde, der speigel) using the term 'economic collapse' to describe it ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-01.
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Kim Jong-un was assassinated on or before 16 June 2016. ( 3% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-06-16; known on 2016-12-17; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-06-29.
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Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-11; known on 2056-01-01.
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Bernie Sanders endorses Hillary Clinton for President ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-06-08; known on 2016-11-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-07-28.
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Conditional on Hillary Clinton's genome being sequenced, she will be shown to have a higher than average probability of being on the autistic spectrum/having aspergers. ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-07; known on 2066-06-07.
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Hilary Clinton as next US President ( 55% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by LawrenceNewport on 2016-06-07; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump will be the next elected President ( 90% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-01; known on 2016-11-10; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020 ( 9% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-29; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2021-01-01.
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Boston will have at least 1 100-degree day in 2016 ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2017-01-01.
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I leave my job by the end of May 2016. ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-16; known on 2016-06-01; judged right by ioannes on 2016-06-11.
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Trump to back legalizing recreational and/or medical marijuana during 2016 election. ( 33% confidence; 9 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-05-04; known on 2016-11-16; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-11-16.
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Clinton to back legalizing recreational and/or medical marijuana during 2016 election. ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-05-04; known on 2016-11-16; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-11-21.
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All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-07; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-01-01.
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David Cameron will resign as PM due to the Panama Papers scandal in the next two weeks. ( 5% confidence; 21 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2016-04-08; known on 2016-04-22; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-04-22.
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Within fifty (50) years, what is today known as the Panama Papers will be generally agreed upon to have been leaked by a US Govt operation. Similar to how the NYTimes says (but both governments deny) that Stuxnet was a joint US/Israel operation. ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-04-04; known on 2066-04-05.
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Utah will go to somebody other than the GOP nominee in 2016. ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-30; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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A male friend of mine will marry a woman, only to have it revealed later that she's transitioning to being a man ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-25; known on 2023-01-01.
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UMaine Machias will offer me a tenure track position before April 2. ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-23; known on 2016-04-03; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-04-03.
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In 2019, I’ll be able to get a pizza delivered to my house by a robot. ( 38% confidence; 15 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-20; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-21.
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For snow-related reasons I will be told to work from home on Monday. ( 88% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-20; known on 2016-03-21; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-21.
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On Jan 1, 2019 my bmi will be between 19 and 21.5. (Withdrawn if I’m >3 months pregnant in 2018.) ( 87% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-20; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2019-01-15.
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On Jan 1, 2018 my bmi will be between 19 and 21.5. (Withdrawn if I’m >3 months pregnant in 2017.) ( 90% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-20; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2018-01-02.
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On Jan 1, 2017 my bmi will be between 19 and 21.5. (Withdrawn if I’m >3 months pregnant in 2016.) ( 95% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-20; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2017-01-01.
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Martin Shkreli convicted of a US crime before 2018. ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-17; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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At least one of my Inter-Library Loan requests come in while I'm out of the city travelling ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-17; known on 2016-04-16; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-22.
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My upcoming train trip is delayed over 6.5 hours. ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-17; known on 2017-04-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-22.
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I will replace my laptop in 2017. ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-16; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-09.
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John Kasich will win the Republican nomination for President ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ChristianKl on 2016-03-16; known on 2016-08-26; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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AlphaGo will win the 5th match against Lee Sedol ( 68% confidence; 12 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by artir on 2016-03-13; known on 2016-03-16; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-15.
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Ke Jie loses to AlphaGo ( 87% confidence; 15 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-08.
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I will not get SJS from modafinil ( 95% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RoryS on 2016-03-10; known on 2017-10-03; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-22.
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I will still be below 68kg at the end of 2018 ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by waveman on 2016-03-04; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2019-01-01.
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I will still be below 68kg at the end of 2017 ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by waveman on 2016-03-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2018-01-01.
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I will still be below 68lg at the end of 2016 ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by waveman on 2016-03-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2017-01-02.
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Facebook will either remove the negative-valence expanded reaction buttons, or in some way allow people to de-activate the option for their own posts, by the end of 2016 ( 28% confidence; 17 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Temeraire on 2016-02-25; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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I will not have eaten any meat intentionally before a month from now. ( 72% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Sahil on 2016-02-21; known on 2016-03-21; judged right by Sahil on 2016-04-06.
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I will not get a second interview with my most recent interviewers. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by azax1 on 2016-02-16; known on 2016-02-23; judged right by azax1 on 2016-02-24.
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President Bernie Sanders Assassinated ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-02-16; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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Kanye West will be U.S. President-elect before 2025 ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-14; known on 2025-01-01.
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Today there will be >= 1 posts in my Facebook newsfeed about how Valentine's day is stupid, a secret ploy by corporations, or something something patriarchy. ( 82% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-02-14; known on 2016-02-15; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-02-15.
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There will be >= 1 valentine's day engagement announcements in my Facebook newsfeed today. ( 40% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-02-14; known on 2016-02-15; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-02-15.
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A longterm (with humans present at least sixth months) colony will occur on Mars before it occurs on the Earth's moon. ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-13; known on 2050-01-01.
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By January 2020, there will be a commercial house cleaning robots (like a Roomba) that can take voice commands to go to specific parts of the house and clean those. ( 63% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-13; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-08.
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Jim Webb to be the next elected President of the US. ( 0% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-11; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Somerville will declare another snow emergency before March 1. ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-02-10; known on 2016-03-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-01.
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xgboost will be next best ( 70% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-02-10; known on 2016-02-10; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-02-10.
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Cannabis will be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substances Act before 2023 ( 44% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2016-02-04; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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Lesswrong.com will have major ( >3 pages' design structure) changes implemented, and live by the end of 2016 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sdr on 2016-02-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by sdr on 2017-03-17.
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MDMA-mediated psychotherapy receives FDA approval in the next twenty years. ( 47% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-03; known on 2037-01-01.
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Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus. ( 99% confidence; 23 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-29; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2023-01-01.
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AlphaGo defeats Lee Sedol in 3/5 or more games in March ( 64% confidence; 76 wagers; 39 comments )
Created by Jach on 2016-01-28; known on 2016-04-01; judged right by Jach on 2016-03-12.
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Ben Carson will be the next President-elect ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-28; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Michael Bloomberg will be the next President-elect ( 2% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-24; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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no errors in this upload ( 72% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-21; known on 2016-01-22; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-21.
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President Obama will be impeached by the House of Representatives. ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Taymon on 2014-11-05; known on 2016-01-20.
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Sam gets me sick. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-20; known on 2016-01-24; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-24.
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I will be out of my sling in 5 weeks. ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-18; known on 2016-02-28; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-21.
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Grid search will be done running when I get home. ( 60% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-17; known on 2016-01-17; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-18.
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Sweden declares war against Norway ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-01.
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Sweden declares war against Finland ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-01.
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I am still using Complice on December 1 2016. ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-01-13; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-12-02.
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J agrees to call. ( 55% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-13; known on 2016-01-16; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-21.
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J responds before Friday. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-13; known on 2016-01-16; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-18.
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The Chinese economy will completely collapse by 2017. ( 7% confidence; 20 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by chinawillfall on 2016-01-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Computers will beat the best humans at Go before 2017 ( 54% confidence; 21 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Houshalter on 2016-01-11; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Houshalter on 2016-03-15.
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By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders – sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy… – in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications. ( 34% confidence; 18 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2016-01-08; known on 2026-12-31.
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Malheur will no longer be occupied by armed insurgents by the end of the month. ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-01-08; known on 2016-01-31; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-02-11.
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Malheur insurgency to be resolved within a week. ( 38% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-01-08; known on 2016-01-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-16.
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USA will default on its debt. ( 19% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-06; known on 2023-12-25.
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Givewell adds a charity addressing existential risk to their top charities list in 2016. ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-05; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by mortehu on 2017-01-01.
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jokeocracy will be banned from twitter for a week or longer, before 2017 ( 66% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-06.
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I will watch 75+/-15 movies I haven't seen before in 2016 (i.e. I will have 1064-1094 IMDb votes on 2017-01-01, since I'm starting this year at 1004). ( 48% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-01-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2017-01-01.
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I will read at least 36 books in 2016. ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-01-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2017-01-02.
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I will write 3,000+ lines of Rust in 2016 ( 47% confidence; 6 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-31.
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Indonesia to recognize same sex marriage before January 1, 2017 ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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Same-sex marriage to be recognized in Germany by January 1, 2017 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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I will convince another person to adopt a vegan or vegetarian diet (for a minimum of two months) next semester ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2016-01-03; known on 2016-04-01; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-04-19.
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Rosa Parks will be on the new 10 dollar bill. ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-15; known on 2016-07-02; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-04-21.
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Eleanor Roosevelt will be on the new 10 dollar bill. ( 18% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-15; known on 2016-07-02; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-04-21.
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Ebola epidemic has ended. ( 93% confidence; 16 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-01-14; judged right by ioannes on 2016-01-14.
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2016 predictions: I will end up being underconfident on my 2016 predictions. ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
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2016 predictions: No US politicians will be assassinated. ( 92% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-12-31.
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2016 predictions: there will not be any terrorist attacks in the US that kill more than 40 people. ( 74% confidence; 22 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-12.
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2016 predictions: World War III will happen. ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-12-31.
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2016 predictions: At the end of the year AMF will still be a GiveWell recommended charity. ( 89% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-29.
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2016 predictions: GiveWell will add a charity to their recommendations that is not on the current list (AMF, SCI, Deworm the World, GiveDirectly). ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-29.
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2016 predictions: I will have a baby. ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
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2016 predictions: I will end the year still living in the Boston area. ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
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2016 predictions: I will complete 1 (or more) Kaggle competitions. ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-02-10.
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2016 predictions: I will complete 2 (or more) Kaggle competitions. ( 87% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-02-10.
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2016 predictions: I will complete 3 or more Kaggle competitions. ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
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2016 predictions: I will have >100 new (resolved) predictions on PredictionBook. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-06-27.
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2016 predictions: I will have >365 new (resolved) predictions on PredictionBook. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
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2016 predictions: I will still be a vegetarian or pescetarian at the end of the year. ( 91% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.