Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
-
No areas of the US Drought Monitor – California map (http://www.californiadrought.org/drought/current-conditions/) are colored “Extreme Drought” by February 1 2018 ( 33% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-13; known on 2018-02-01; judged right by ioannes on 2018-02-01.
-
Voice recognition software will be capable of replacing the average court stenographer in five years. ( 31% confidence; 10 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2013-02-02; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2018-02-01.
-
Fewer refugees admitted to Europe in 2017 than 2016 ( 72% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-02-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2018-02-01.
-
[Trump's approval rating on 2/1/18 as aggregated by 538 is] ≤30% ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-02-01.
-
[Trump's approval rating on 2/1/18 as aggregated by 538 is] 30.1%–35% ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-02-01.
-
[Trump's approval rating on 2/1/18 as aggregated by 538 is] 35.1%–37.5% ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-02-01.
-
[Trump's approval rating on 2/1/18 as aggregated by 538 is] 37.6%–40% ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-02-01; judged right by ccokeefe on 2018-02-01.
-
[Trump's approval rating on 2/1/18 as aggregated by 538 is] ≥40.1% ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-02-01.
-
Bitcoin prices will be subdued for January 2018, never rising above it's ATH ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Nve on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-02-01; judged right by ccokeefe on 2018-02-01.
-
The legal status of marijuana (including medical) in the UK will undergo a substantial change ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2018-01-31.
-
North Korea will not experience any significant destabilization of its regime by the end of 2017 ( 88% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by blobfish on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Josh Holland on 2018-01-31.
-
George H.W. Bush to live beyond Gerald Ford's record lifespan ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-16; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Josh Holland on 2018-01-31.
-
Food scarce in UK: widespread hunger/empty supermarkets for at least a month(ie not single blip due to natural catastrophe) ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-24; known on 2018-01-25; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2018-01-31.
-
Lives saved from legalized stem cell treatment > Lives lost from military conflicts & flying killer robots / drones 2008-2016 ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-06; known on 2017-01-02; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-01-31.
-
US Newspaperocalypse ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-16; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-01-31.
-
4% of world economy is cryptocurrency governed ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-11; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-01-31.
-
Trump tweets about the stolen radioactive material in mexico ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-25; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-01-31.
-
Civil war in Saudi Arabia ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-15; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-01-31.
-
Paul Nehlen is banned or suspended from twitter (temporary or permanent either way) ( 65% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-12-07; known on 2018-06-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2018-01-31.
-
I will finish Algebra 1 at IUM this year ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-10-11; known on 2018-01-30; judged wrong by crabman on 2018-01-30.
-
I will finish Geometry 1 at IUM this year ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-10-11; known on 2018-01-30; judged wrong by crabman on 2018-01-30.
-
I will finish Analysis 1 at IUM this year ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-10-11; known on 2018-01-30; judged wrong by crabman on 2018-01-30.
-
A year from now, I will be unable to remember the plot of “The Nix” ( 55% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-30; known on 2018-01-30; judged right by ioannes on 2018-01-30.
-
Conservatives will win the general election. ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by neilscott on 2017-05-01; known on 2017-06-08; judged wrong by neilscott on 2018-01-29.
-
Assuming he competes, Novak Djokovic will win the 2018 Australian Open ( 70% confidence )
Created by gurgus on 2017-12-19; known on 2018-01-29; judged wrong by gurgus on 2018-01-29.
-
Hillary Clinton is indicted by the end of 2018 ( 3% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2019-01-01.
-
Hillary Clinton is indicted by the end of 2018 ( 3% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2019-01-01.
-
Kel'Thuzad to be released this year in Heroes of the Storm. ( 70% confidence )
Created by timujin on 2017-03-29; known on 2018-01-16; judged right by timujin on 2018-01-28.
-
The US government undergoes a “government shutdown” for at least 24 hours in 2018 ( 20% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by peter_hurford on 2018-01-27.
-
Alex will be home after 7pm ( 65% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-01-27; known on 2018-01-27; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2018-01-27.
-
The Shanghai Draons will lose to the Seoul Dynasty in todays OWL game. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Bacon1001 on 2018-01-25; known on 2018-01-25; judged right by Bacon1001 on 2018-01-25.
-
This year, Predictionbook will switch its scoring to be logarithmic ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Alti Camelus on 2017-03-13; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Dapple on 2018-01-24.
-
The U.S. will impose new protectionist tariffs within the first year of Trump's presidency ( 54% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by sjy on 2016-12-26; known on 2018-01-20; judged wrong by sjy on 2018-01-22.
-
The payload satellites on Rocket Lab's 'Still Testing' Electron rocket will deploy and operate successfully. ( 57% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-18; known on 2017-12-20; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-01-22.
-
Rocket Labs 'Still Testing' Electron rocket launch will successfully deploy it's payloads in a stable orbit. ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-18; known on 2018-01-30; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-01-22.
-
Trump's approval rating to below 30% by end of first year in office. ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-11-10; known on 2018-01-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-20.
-
I think that I will still be using this site in a month. That is, I will have made at least two more serious predictions in the next month. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Enzar on 2017-12-30; known on 2018-01-30; judged right by Enzar on 2018-01-20.
-
When I finish travelling the world and come home, I will be glad I did and feel satisfied and proud of myself. I will feel like I am wiser. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-01; known on 2017-08-01; judged right by Idrinkitup on 2018-01-19.
-
I will change careers into some kind of software development job by Winter 2017 ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-09-07; known on 2017-11-01; judged right by Idrinkitup on 2018-01-19.
-
If I buy a new laptop during the next 3 weeks, then I will be glad that I've bought it in half a year ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-18; known on 2018-01-16; judged wrong by crabman on 2018-01-19.
-
2017 will be the second hottest year since 1880 according to the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index published by NASA/GISS. ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by iCrown on 2017-07-21; known on 2018-02-01; judged right by iCrown on 2018-01-19.
-
US lifts at least half of existing sanctions on Russia in 2017 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-15; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-19.
-
No terrorist attack in the in any First World country (European Union, UK, US, Japan, Australia) will kill >500 people in 2017 ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-20; known on 2018-01-16; judged right by ioannes on 2018-01-17.
-
No terrorist attack in the in any First World country (European Union, UK, US, Japan, Australia) will kill >1000 people in 2017 ( 90% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-20; known on 2018-01-16; judged right by ioannes on 2018-01-17.
-
At least one of the four coordinated EA charities (GD, AMF, FHI, THL) receives a Project for Awesome grant. ( 82% confidence )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2018-02-01; judged right by ccokeefe on 2018-01-16.
-
Gary Cohn (Gary David Cohn) will not be the Director of the National Economic Council (NEC) before the end of 2017 ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-28; known on 2018-01-05; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-01-16.
-
Keith Schiller leaves the White House before the end of 2017 ( 85% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-01; known on 2018-01-05; judged right by two2thehead on 2018-01-16.
-
India to successfully launch at least 15 more commercial satellites before 2018. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-12; known on 2018-01-16; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-16.
-
In the wake of Alphabet, we'll see a boom and subsequent crash of google-related projects. ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kallman on 2015-08-22; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by timujin on 2018-01-16.
-
dm.am release complete with database migration from dungeonmaster.ru this year ( 30% confidence )
Created by timujin on 2017-03-29; known on 2018-01-16; judged wrong by timujin on 2018-01-16.