Upcoming Predictions
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The rest of the European countries will introduce visa för Sweden by 2030 ( 95% confidence )
Created by d8e8fca2dc0f896fd7cb4cb0031ba249@mailinator.com on 2018-06-23; known on 2030-01-01.
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“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.” ( 35% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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Aam Aadmi Party, like the Indian National Congress, will disappear from the electoral map of India. ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-03; known on 2030-01-01.
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'By 2030, we are likely to have developed no-frills brain-machine interfaces, allowing the paralysed to dance in their thought-controlled exoskeleton suits.' —David Eagleman ( 32% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2030-01-01.
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Meat and/or dairy products from cellular agriculture will be commercially available by January 1st, 2030. ( 90% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2030-01-01.
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By 2030, there will be fewer than 3.5 million people employed in the US as truck drivers, as autonomous vehicles penetrate the market. ( 82% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2016-07-26; known on 2030-01-01.
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A male birth control pill will be commercially available in the US or EU by 2045. ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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A peace treaty ends the arab-israeli conflict before 2030. ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-08; known on 2030-01-01.
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Norway will stop regular postal delivery to private houses of regular people by 2030 ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by silacoid on 2016-03-31; known on 2030-01-01.
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SpaceX will NOT land people on Mars by 2030. ( 55% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Lunchroom1685 on 2023-03-20; known on 2030-01-01.
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The Breakthrough Starshot initiative will construct a working prototype of a laser-propelled nanocraft capable of accelerating to more than 1% of the speed of light, before 2030. ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sflicht on 2016-04-26; known on 2030-01-01.
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The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030. ( 16% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PatrickAchtelik on 2010-11-24; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by muflax on 2010-12-12.
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A company with its main activity being cultured meat and/or dairy products will be valued at >= 1bn 2020USD by January 1st, 2030. ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2030-01-01.
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Before 2030, more than 35% of US-Americans will have no religious identity (not counting babies). ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-06; known on 2030-01-01.
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By 2030, Bluesky (Jack Dorsey startup/app) becomes widely used ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-02; known on 2030-01-01.
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An hyperloop will be in use before 2030. ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-01-26; known on 2030-01-01.
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Implanted RFIDs and similar cybernetics will be mainstream (popular?) by 2030 ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kallman on 2010-11-20; known on 2030-01-01.
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Trump wins Nobel ( 10% confidence; 41 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2018-05-03; known on 2030-01-01.
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The U.S. plant-based and cultured-based retail market will be worth more than 9bn 2020USD throughout 2029. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2030-01-01.
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“China will break apart by 2030” ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2030-01-01.
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Övriga EU länder kommer att införa visum mot Sverige före 2030 ( 85% confidence )
Created by gsfshdshdfgfd@mailinator.com on 2018-06-23; known on 2030-01-01.
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Level 3 autonomous cars will be commercially available by 2030. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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Avi gets a bachelor's degree from UW ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-04-08; known on 2030-01-01.
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[2020s scientific advances:] finding the axion ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2030-01-01.
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[2020s scientific advances:] functional brain implants made of brain tissue (not electronic) ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2030-01-01.
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[2020s scientific advances:] a small, rocky exoplanet with water vapor ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2030-01-01.
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J is no longer Christian. ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-12-24; known on 2030-01-01.
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[2020s scientific advances:] a universal flu vaccine available to the general public in at least one country ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2030-01-01.
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By 2030 genome sequencing would be offered as a service in local clinics/hospitals for an insignificant fee or for free in most (50%+) of the countries that today (2014) constitute together the Schengen Area, EU, Balkans, North America and Japan. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Neznans on 2014-05-05; known on 2030-01-01.
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Construction will start on replacements for the North River Tunnels by 2030 ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-03; known on 2030-01-01.
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Bryan Caplan will win his bet on climate statistics with Yoram Bauman. ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-07-12; known on 2030-01-01.
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At least 2 billion biological humans will be alive on Earth at the beginning of 2030. ( 94% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2030-01-01.
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A large-scale persistant Alternate Reality game is created which sets a “cyberspace grafitti” sort of layer on top of reality; sells poorly, but trudges on with a cult following. ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kallman on 2010-11-22; known on 2030-01-01.
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Google will be the first company with a market cap of $1 trillion. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-10-26; known on 2030-01-01.
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humans on mars by 2030 ( 28% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by htaussig on 2021-03-20; known on 2030-01-01.
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At least 50% of code on github will be generated by language models or their successors on January 1 2030. ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by amrav on 2020-06-13; known on 2030-01-01.
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The Australian Broadcasting Corporation will be privatised on or by 1/1/2030. ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by najdorf on 2013-11-29; known on 2030-01-02.
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I will have eaten lab-grown meat at least once every 2 months for one whole year (not necessarily Jan-Jan) before 2030 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-22; known on 2030-01-02.
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At least 20 of the top 100 websites (Alexa rank) will only be usable (core functionality) after having paid a fee ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-08; known on 2030-01-02.
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The biggest federated social network will have at least 10 times more users than the biggest federated social network on 2019-01-01. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-08; known on 2030-01-02.
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Non-condom reversible male contraception approved by the FDA by 2030 ( 73% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-23; known on 2030-01-02.
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By 2030 consciousness, free will and qualia will be recognized as emergent properties of certain intelligences, and not phenomena that are dependent on any “spirit”, “god” or quantum magic. This bc of progress in AI. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-05; known on 2030-01-02.
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If you live in a major city you will be able to hail some form of automatic car ride before 2030 ( 54% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-05-26; known on 2030-01-05.
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Almost all commercial airplanes will have outlets by 2030 ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by cmessinger on 2015-08-17; known on 2030-01-07.
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By 2030 there will be fewer than 1,600,000 people employed as Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers (occupation code 53-3032) in the US as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. ( 78% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2017-01-06; known on 2030-01-16.
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There will be a manned mission to Mars by 2030 ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-29; known on 2030-01-16.
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Seth Frotman's concerns about student loan lending practices will be vindicated ( 99% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by prophetofprofit on 2018-08-30; known on 2030-01-31.
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humans on mars before 2030 ( 24% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-26; known on 2030-02-26.
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John McAfee faked his own death ( 4% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by XORXERY on 2021-06-24; known on 2030-04-01.
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On my 40th birthday, I will have had 3 children (excluding offspring from selling eggs). ( 25% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-05-04; known on 2030-05-31.