Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 25% | 0% | 75% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
Displaying all predictions made by jakewalker. Filter by:
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The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican. ( 15% confidence; 17 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.
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Twitter will archive content of web links and tweets before 2018 ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-21; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-05-06.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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Democrats will retain control of the senate after 2012 election ( 61% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-21; known on 2012-12-15; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ( 9% confidence; 16 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-18; known on 2022-09-19; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-09-25.
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Copper prices to fall by >=50% in 3 years. —Michael Pettis ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-16; known on 2015-09-16; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-09-17.
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By the end of the year, NASA will announce that spherical objects discovered by its Opportunity rover on 9/14 are geological rather than biological in origin. ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-15; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-07-19.
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I will have finished reading “Four Witnesses: The Early Church in Her Own Words” by Oct. 31st ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jakewalker on 2012-09-13; known on 2012-10-31; judged wrong by jakewalker on 2012-10-31.
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I will have finished reading up through the latest chapter HPMOR by Oct. 1st ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jakewalker on 2012-09-13; known on 2012-10-01; judged right by jakewalker on 2012-09-19.
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There'll be significant protests, riots or attacks against American embassies in more than 5 middle eastern/muslim countries, as a result of the anti-muslim youtube video ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-13; known on 2013-03-01; judged right by jakewalker on 2012-09-15.
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Hillary Clinton will run for president in 2016. ( 38% confidence; 25 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2016-02-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-27.