Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 75% | 67% | 100% | 71% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 2 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 23 |
Displaying all predictions made by Reactionaryhistorian. Filter by:
-
Donald Trump will be in Prison on voting day 2028 (Tuesday, Nov 7th, 2028) ( 13% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by LukeS on 2020-12-09; known on 2028-11-08; judged unknown by lazarus on 2020-12-27.
-
Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election ( 95% confidence; 26 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-11-04; known on 2020-12-01; judged right by Deepak on 2020-12-15.
-
Spacex's SN8 will sucessfully complete its first flight and tests and come to a safe landing. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Reactionaryhistorian on 2020-10-10; known on 2020-11-30; judged wrong by Reactionaryhistorian on 2020-12-10.
-
A Trump-nominated Supreme Court Justice is confirmed to replace Ginsburg before the 2020 November election. ( 67% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Deepak on 2020-09-19; known on 2020-11-04.
-
Whoever loses the American Presisential 2020 election will accept the results and there will not be any constitutional crisis or attempt to overturn the vote. ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Reactionaryhistorian on 2020-09-21; known on 2021-01-21; judged wrong by Reactionaryhistorian on 2020-11-09.
-
The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life. ( 2% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Deepak on 2020-09-16; known on 2025-09-16.
-
Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today ( 45% confidence; 25 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by jamesrom on 2020-08-22; known on 2024-08-22.
-
[Geopolitics , Belarus , Russia] Little Green Men (or equivalent) shows up in Belarus within 1 (one) month. ( 39% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2020-08-15; known on 2020-09-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2020-09-18.
-
Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars ( 19% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-01-01.
-
Trump will win a second term ( 46% confidence; 74 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2020-11-08; judged wrong by regex on 2020-11-20.
-
Another EU country will decide to leave before 2020 ( 44% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-24; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Paul.David.Carr on 2020-01-01.
-
Prime minister Boris Johnson ( 37% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-24; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2019-08-31.
-
Trump goes it alone, does not appoint a VP ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-17; known on 2016-10-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
-
Bernie Sanders will drop out on or before June 30th ( 42% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-14; known on 2016-06-30; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2016-07-01.
-
Hilary Clinton as next US President ( 55% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by LawrenceNewport on 2016-06-07; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
-
United Ireland by 2020 ( 8% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-06-05; known on 2020-12-16; judged wrong by Reactionaryhistorian on 2020-10-12.
-
Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump will be the next elected President ( 90% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-01; known on 2016-11-10; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
-
Hilary wins California democratic primary. ( 59% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-18; known on 2016-06-20; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-20.
-
The US dollar to crash, and loose 50%, or more of it's value by 2026 ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sdr on 2016-05-14; known on 2026-01-01.
-
Trump's VP pick is not white (counting hispanic as non-white). ( 24% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-06; known on 2016-08-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
-
Trump's VP pick is not a career politician (i.e. is a businessperson, celebrity, etc.) ( 32% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-06; known on 2016-08-16; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-15.
-
The UK will stay in the EU ( 67% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by spinkley on 2016-02-24; known on 2016-06-24; judged wrong by Reactionaryhistorian on 2016-06-24.
-
The British Conservative Party will win the next UK general election with an outright majority of MPs (not conditional on election date) ( 62% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Waring on 2016-02-11; known on 2020-05-10; judged wrong by Waring on 2017-08-03.
-
Donald Trump to be the next US President. ( 26% confidence; 73 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-30; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
-
There will be a computer input device that is faster at text input than a keyboard (average of 1.5x speedup or more), reasonably quiet (not standard text dictation), and does not require the use of the eyes. Used by 20% of software developers. ( 25% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by zpinter on 2013-03-31; known on 2018-03-31; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-04-05.
-
Unable to agree to any meaningful treaties on climate change, the UN security council will sanction several nuclear explosions in order to create a nuclear winter. ( 9% confidence; 19 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by scott.arbeitman on 2009-12-08; known on 2019-12-08; judged wrong by scott.arbeitman on 2019-12-08.