Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 23% | 38% | 38% | 82% | 86% | 93% | |
Sample Size | 22 | 48 | 66 | 73 | 103 | 15 | 327 |
Displaying all predictions made by NathanMcKnight. Filter by:
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BTC hits $500 within the year ( 35% confidence; 23 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2013-11-28.
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Supremes make same-sex marriage law of the land. ( 38% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-03-27; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Patrick Brinich-Langlois on 2014-01-01.
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Average global temperature for 2013 to be higher than for 2012. ( 56% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-03-13; known on 2014-01-15; judged right by simplicio on 2014-01-15.
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Detection of free oxygen on an exoplanet by end of the year. ( 17% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-03-12; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by phreeza on 2014-01-01.
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Obama will come to be ranked, on average, by presidential historians within two places of 17th best president. (ref: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/01/23/contemplating-obamas-place-in-history-statistically/) ( 38% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-01-26; known on 2113-01-01.
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Mencius Moldbug: Bitcoin <10 cents by end of 2013. ( 7% confidence; 26 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-01-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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Elizabeth Colbert-Busch wins SC House Seat. ( 60% confidence )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-01-20; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by NathanMcKnight on 2013-05-16.
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Economic and social collapse in the United States will progress to a point that Barack Obama will use emergency powers in order to not cede the office of the President at the end of his second term, perhaps even cancelling elections in 2016. ie Empire ( 3% confidence; 32 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by thephilosiraptor on 2013-01-13; known on 2017-01-20; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-20.
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We're jumping off the Fiscal Cliff. Whee! ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-12; known on 2013-01-15.
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Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA. ( 24% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Nadanate on 2012-11-13; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.
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We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ( 24% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by drethelin on 2012-12-23; known on 2062-12-23.
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Discovering the water and/or oxygen traces in some exoplanets ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by tsathoggua on 2012-12-01; known on 2013-05-16; judged right by Tuxedage on 2013-05-26.
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Curiosity discovers ancient life forms in Martioian soil ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by tsathoggua on 2012-12-01; known on 2013-05-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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Over the next 20 years loop quantum gravity will dominate the efforts to reconcile Relativity with Quantum Mechanics. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-29; known on 2032-01-01.
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Within 50 years, excavations on Flores Island will show that Homo floresiensis survived into historical times. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-28; known on 2063-01-01.
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“I estimate there is a 79.4357 percent probability that Susan Rice will be confirmed early next year as secretary of State, and the vote won’t even be close.” —John Heilemann, NY Magazine ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-25; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-02-24.
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Mars rover SAM instrument discovers live microorganisms in Martian soil. ( 11% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-20; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Samm on 2013-04-26.
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Mars rover SAM instrument discovers methane in Martian atmosphere. ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-20; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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“Anonymous” ORCA hack claim will make Fox News headlines in the next two weeks. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-18; known on 2012-12-02; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-02-24.
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Between now and 2030, a feature length movie will be made about the life of one of the major figures of classical anarchism. (e.g. Proudhon, Kropotkin, Malatesta, Durruti, Goldman etc.) ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-16; known on 2030-01-01.
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By 2020, Puerto Rico will be admitted to the Union ( 39% confidence; 18 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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The Democratic candidate takes Georgia in 2016 ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-09; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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The Democratic candidate takes North Carolina in 2016. ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-09; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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John Kerry is more likely to be Secretary of State than Susan Rice ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-06; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-01-30.
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The 2016 presidential election will be Jeb Bush v. Hillary Clinton. Yes, again! ( 14% confidence; 27 wagers; 16 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07; known on 2016-11-30; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-02-21.
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At least one major broadcaster will have to retract its calling a state for a particular candidate within a week after the election tomorrow. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-06; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-27.
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David Axelrod will not shave his mustache within a month. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-05; known on 2012-12-07; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-02-24.
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Obama will be elected President in 2012 ( 69% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by cmessinger on 2011-08-16; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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In at least one state Obama wins in 2012, Gary Johnson will win a number of votes greater than the margin by which Obama defeats Romney in that state. ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-30; known on 2012-12-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-27.
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Marijuana legalization will be a significant issue in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. ( 33% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-30; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Rossi's energy black box actually harnesses a third type of nuclear reaction ( 4% confidence; 10 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-30; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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The broken crane hanging above NYC will not fall during hurricane Sandy. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-11-01; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-02.
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Obama will win Ohio ( 73% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-11-08; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ( 14% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-29; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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In the next ten years, self-identified anarchists will out number self-identified Greens in the US. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-29; known on 2023-01-01.
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The death toll from hurricane Sandy will be lower than that from Katrina. ( 88% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Matt on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-11-29; judged right by Matt on 2012-11-29.
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Within 6 months, a nationally-known Democratic strategist, pundit, or politician will claim that Obama's performance in the first 2012 debate was a clever strategy to lower expectations. ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-28; known on 2013-05-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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Within a generation, the “Aquatic Ape Theory” will become a significant minority opinion within anthropology. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-27; known on 2045-01-01.
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Mitt Romney will win the popular vote in the 2012 US election ( 37% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-26; known on 2012-11-10; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-08.
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By 2025, at least one major world city will have a restaurant featuring 3D printed food. ( 69% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-25; known on 2025-01-01; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2015-03-23.
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Donald Trump won't pay out on his $5m offer to Obama to release educational transcripts ( 80% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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Within fifty years (2062), the world economy will experience an increase in economic growth rate comparable to the industrial and agricultural revolutions. ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Aticper on 2012-10-24; known on 2062-12-31.
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By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ( 26% confidence; 15 wagers; 25 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-21; known on 2060-01-01.
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Within ten years, at least one planet of < 3 Earth masses will be discovered in one of the liquid water habitable zones in the Alpha Centauri system. ( 43% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-17; known on 2022-10-18.
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Within ten years, a planet will be discovered in at least one of the (liquid water) habitable zones in the Alpha Centauri system. ( 56% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-17; known on 2022-10-18.
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I will complete Remembering the Kanji 1 before 2014. ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-10-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-16.
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They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040 ( 55% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-05; known on 2040-12-31.
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Someone on Fox News or one of the headlines on their website will claim that Mitt Romney won the 2012-10-03 presidential debate. ( 83% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by aaronsw on 2012-10-03; known on 2012-10-04; judged right by aaronsw on 2012-10-04.
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Sea level rise will exceed 2m by 2100. ( 84% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-02; known on 2100-01-01.
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Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. — Robin Hanson ( 27% confidence; 14 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 9999-01-01.
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Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 32% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 69% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. — David Pearce ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 16 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2070-01-01.
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The US presidential debates of 2016 will feature a three-way debate between a Democrat, a Republican, and a Libertarian Party candidate. ( 18% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-02; known on 2016-11-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-02.
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Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican. ( 51% confidence; 18 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-27; known on 2116-11-05.
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They will have started Phase 3 clinical trials in the US of a brain implant in humans (for Alzheimers, brain damage or disease, not for intelligence upgrade) by 2045 and not before 2025 ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-15; known on 2045-01-01.
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Within 10 years I will be able to buy a 3D printed object at a local mall. ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by learnmethis on 2012-09-26; known on 2022-09-26.
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In the first two years after the 2012 election, at least three prominent Republican party members will defect to other parties. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-21; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by NathanMcKnight on 2016-06-13.
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In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ( 9% confidence; 16 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-18; known on 2022-09-19; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-09-25.
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Mars nodules discovered on 9/14/12 will be analyzed and described as carbonate ooids in at least one refereed journal within a year. ( 25% confidence )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-15; known on 2013-09-15; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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By the end of the year, NASA will announce that spherical objects discovered by its Opportunity rover on 9/14 are geological rather than biological in origin. ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-15; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-07-19.
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A Libertarian Party candidate will receive more of the popular vote in the 2016 presidential election than the Republican candidate. ( 6% confidence; 23 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-02; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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In 2012, Obama will lose only one state that he won in 2008. ( 40% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-10; known on 2012-12-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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Hillary Clinton will run for president in 2016. ( 38% confidence; 25 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2016-02-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-27.
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No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020. ( 74% confidence; 20 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Mitt Romney will change his position to the GOP platform of banning all abortion even in the case of incest and rape. ( 14% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-08-22; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-08.
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Within the next ten years, Kepler 36b & Kepler 36c will be theorized in a peer-reviewed publication to be a case of planetary enucleation—b being the dense former core of c. ( 24% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-08-21; known on 2022-08-21.
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First directly brain-controlled internet post will be announced within the next 5 years. ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-08-01; known on 2018-01-01.
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Unmanned aerial mapping will revolutionize archaeology (as evidenced by number of published papers) within the next 20 years. ( 69% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-08-01; known on 2033-01-01.
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Titan Mare Explorer (TiME) will be chosen as next NASA Discovery standalone mission. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-08-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-06.
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New Horizons mission will transmit strong evidence of subsurface ocean on Pluto. ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-08-01; known on 2016-11-12.
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In the 2012 election, Obama will pick up at least one state he didn't win in 2008. ( 30% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-08-01; known on 2012-11-10; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-11-07.
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Anne Romney's horse will place in 2012 Olympics dressage competition. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-07-28; known on 2012-01-08; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-08-13.
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World record high temperature will reach or exceed 140 °F in 2012. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-07-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.
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Death Valley temperature will be recorded at or above 135 °F this year. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-07-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.
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At least one story in Kazka Press's Bronies anthology will be nominated for a 2013 Nebula award. ( 30% confidence )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-06-13; known on 2013-05-01; judged wrong by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-29.
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At least one story in Kazaka Press's Bronies anthology will win a Nebula award in 2013. ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-06-13; known on 2013-06-06; judged wrong by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-29.
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Tuvalu will have fewer than 1000 year-round inhabitants by 2062. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-06-12; known on 2062-01-01.
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The tentative announcement of possible technological civilizations outside our solar system will precede widely-accepted confirmation of extraterrestrial life within our own solar system. (based on announcements in peer-reviewed jounals) ( 23% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-05-25; known on 2020-01-01.
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Tentative announcements of the discovery of intelligent life in other solar systems will appear in peer reviewed journals by 2020. ( 12% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-05-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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Marijuana will be legal by 2025 ( 65% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-08; known on 2025-01-01.
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By 2020, a single-word term for additive fabrication technology will replace “3D printing” in the media. ( 53% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-02-03; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Leo on 2020-01-01.
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By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ( 75% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-02-01; known on 2050-01-01.
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By 2050, body modification enthusiasts will have printed custom body augmentations through 3D printing technology. ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-01-31; known on 2050-01-01.
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By 2025, a living multicellular organism will be printed using 3D printing technology. ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-01-31; known on 2025-01-01.
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The first functional, 3D printed television/monitor screen will be demonstrated by 2020. ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-01-30; known on 2020-01-01.
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The first 3D printer virus(es) will be reported before the end of 2012. ( 90% confidence; 6 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-01-30; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.
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“There will only be three languages in the world – English, Spanish and Mandarin” —Bill Walker, BBC ( 2% confidence; 34 wagers; 24 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.
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No new seats in Congress for Third Party or Independent candidates in 2012. ( 85% confidence; 6 wagers; 52 comments )
Created by smijer on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-11-10; judged wrong by smijer on 2012-11-10.
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Germany will not leave Euro by end of 2012 ( 92% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by procran on 2011-11-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2013-01-01.
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“[Hillary] Clinton will be Obama's running mate” ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-10; known on 2012-09-03; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-03.
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The singularity will occur by the year 2070 ( 45% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pleeppleep on 2011-12-02; known on 2070-01-01.
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By 2035, the Voynich Manuscript will be deciphered and found to be written in a minority language or an Italian dialect still spoken in Italy today. ( 13% confidence; 6 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-24; known on 2035-01-01.
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By 2035, the Voynich Manuscript will be determined to be written in an archaic form of a language or dialect currently spoken in Italy. ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-24; known on 2035-01-01.
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By 2050, the Great Red Spot will no longer be the largest storm on Jupiter. ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-23; known on 2050-01-01.
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The USA will refuse again to commit to new Emmissions Regulations at COP17 ( 70% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by general on 2011-11-17; known on 2011-12-09; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-14.
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Egypt will go throw another war with Isreal ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ahmedwael on 2011-11-17; known on 2011-12-10; judged wrong by procran on 2011-12-10.
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A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment. ( 4% confidence; 20 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2026-11-30.
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Truly “Pilotless” air travel will be the standard in 2050. ( 62% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2050-12-16.