Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 67% | 0% | 100% | 100% | 92% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 32 |
Displaying all predictions made by mrmrpotatohead. Filter by:
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Craig Wright will prove he is Satoshi Nakamoto, where proof is defined as: Movement of Bitcoins from first 11 blocks OR signing a statement with key from block 0, mentioning Craig Wright by name ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mrmrpotatohead on 2016-05-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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To “prove” he is Satoshi, Craig Wright will move early bitcoins that were mined in 2009, but that are not clearly Satoshi's ie block 12 or later. ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mrmrpotatohead on 2016-05-04; known on 2016-05-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-01.
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Craig S. Wright not only fails to verify himself by demonstrating possession of satoshi's private key (eg 174731), but sometime after may 2, 2017 year tries to claim the same thing without proof again in a public way ( 27% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-02; known on 2018-06-01.
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If nominated, Trump will win zero electoral votes. ( 5% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-22; known on 2017-02-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-09.
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AlphaGo's meltdown in game 4 was not due to flaws in either the value or policy networks. ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2016-03-14; known on 2017-06-01; judged wrong by sole21000 on 2017-06-01.
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Lee Sedol attempts suicide ( 1% confidence; 21 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-12; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Ke Jie loses to AlphaGo ( 87% confidence; 15 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-08.
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Hillary Clinton will win the democratic nomination ( 88% confidence; 30 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sole21000 on 2016-03-09; known on 2016-07-26; judged right by grogo on 2016-07-26.
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Romney is GOP nominee. ( 2% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-08; known on 2016-11-16; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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Romney runs third party. ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-08; known on 2016-11-16; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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Trump Republicans split from GOP to start a third party. ( 10% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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Costa Rica, Brasil, Mauritius will be high income countries (World Bank definition) by 2020. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-03; known on 2020-12-25.
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Exactly two candidates will get greater than 10% of the popular vote in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. ( 74% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by HonoreDB on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-11-10; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Exactly three candidates will get greater than 10% of the popular vote in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Bernie will drop out before California primary. ( 25% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-06-07; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2016-06-08.
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Facebook will either remove the negative-valence expanded reaction buttons, or in some way allow people to de-activate the option for their own posts, by the end of 2016 ( 28% confidence; 17 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Temeraire on 2016-02-25; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Guantanamo Bay detention facility to close before year end. ( 18% confidence; 12 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-23; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-31.
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@realDonaldTrump will be suspended from Twitter for a week or longer before 2017 ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-22; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-31.
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Bernie Sanders will run as a third party/independent if he does not win the Democratic Nomination. ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Faceh on 2016-02-20; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by Faceh on 2016-07-12.
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No single GOP candidate will get >50% of delegates, and a brokered convention will ensue. ( 29% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-17; known on 2016-06-16; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-06-16.
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President Bernie Sanders Assassinated ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-02-16; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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World will eliminate malaria by 2030. ( 69% confidence; 13 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-14; known on 2030-12-25.
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A longterm (with humans present at least sixth months) colony will occur on Mars before it occurs on the Earth's moon. ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-13; known on 2050-01-01.
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North Korea’s government will survive the year 2016 without large civil war/revolt. ( 91% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Temeraire on 2016-02-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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MDMA-mediated psychotherapy receives FDA approval in the next five years. ( 11% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-03; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-12.
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No terrorist attack in the in the US will kill > 100 people in 2016 ( 88% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Donald Trump to be the next US President. ( 26% confidence; 73 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-30; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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Bernie Sanders to win the Democratic nomination. ( 18% confidence; 66 wagers; 38 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-02; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-10.
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China's Real GDP Growth between 2015-1017 will be below the United State's. ( 12% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2015-03-24; known on 2017-12-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-29.
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World population to drop for at least one of the next 10 years. (2015,2016, 2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024). ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-10; known on 2025-02-02.
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By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ( 54% confidence; 42 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by ZLM on 2014-02-10; known on 2025-01-01; judged unknown by lavalamp on 2014-08-21.
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The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022 ( 34% confidence; 35 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-15; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by M on 2022-01-01.
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D-Wave will be commercially selling a >=1024-qubit quantum annealing chip by 2020 ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-10.