Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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I will have automated the rollout of a ruby site by the end of the week. ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jon on 2009-11-22; known on 2009-11-27; judged wrong by jon on 2009-11-27.
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I will go to bed (and fall asleep) before 5AM every day next week, which I'll say starts Sunday. ( 20% confidence )
Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2009-11-21; judged wrong by olimay on 2009-11-26.
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Claire and I will go to the Met Museum of Art sometime on 2009-11-20. ( 20% confidence )
Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2009-11-21; judged wrong by olimay on 2009-11-26.
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There will be no heat in my lab for at least half the days over the next week and a half ( 65% confidence )
Created by ledflyd on 2009-11-16; known on 2009-11-25; judged wrong by ledflyd on 2009-11-25.
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All actions on PD (allocation related) will be handled in JS only ( 75% confidence )
Created by Tom on 2009-11-22; known on 2009-11-24; judged right by Tom on 2009-11-25.
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Cannabis will be legalized throughout the USA. ( 78% confidence )
Created by said on 2009-11-18; known on 2037-08-31; judged wrong by COng on 2010-02-10.
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I will finish planning lessons before I go to bed ( 90% confidence )
Created by brownguy22 on 2009-11-23; known on 2009-11-23; judged right by brownguy22 on 2009-11-23.
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saints win Superbowl ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by hoodoo2 on 2009-11-18; known on 2010-02-07; judged right by hoodoo2 on 2010-02-09.
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Cannabis will be legalized throughout the USA. ( 78% confidence )
Created by said on 2009-11-18; known on 2037-08-31; judged wrong by COng on 2010-02-10.
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There will be a flood event that kills more than 200 people between 14 October and 14 November 2009. ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Arenamontanus on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-11-14; judged wrong by Arenamontanus on 2009-11-17.
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The world will end in 2012 ( 17% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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There will be strong evidence of technologically advanced (contemporary human level or greater) extraterrestrial life by 2016. ETA: evidence of a technologically advanced civilization existing or having existed somewhere outside our solar system. ( 6% confidence; 31 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
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There will be strong evidence of technologically advanced (contemporary human level or greater) extraterrestrial life by 2016. ETA: evidence of a technologically advanced civilization existing or having existed somewhere outside our solar system. ( 6% confidence; 31 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
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I will get frustrated with at least one of my co-workers today ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by ledflyd on 2009-11-16; known on 2009-11-16; judged wrong by ledflyd on 2009-11-16.
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Oliver will share a meal, or, while consuming a meal, company with both Zach and Ruchi on at least two occasions before his birthday. ( 95% confidence )
Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2009-12-06; judged wrong by olimay on 2009-12-05.
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There will be strong evidence of technologically advanced (contemporary human level or greater) extraterrestrial life by 2016. ETA: evidence of a technologically advanced civilization existing or having existed somewhere outside our solar system. ( 6% confidence; 31 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
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No military draft in the United States before 2020. ( 90% confidence; 33 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by komponisto on 2009-10-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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No military draft in the United States before 2020. ( 90% confidence; 33 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by komponisto on 2009-10-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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There will be strong evidence of technologically advanced (contemporary human level or greater) extraterrestrial life by 2016. ETA: evidence of a technologically advanced civilization existing or having existed somewhere outside our solar system. ( 6% confidence; 31 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
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Paddy will give me or have had prepared a check payable to me by the end of today. ( 52% confidence )
Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2009-11-15; judged wrong by olimay on 2009-11-16.
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I will still be at my current job on Nov. 17, 2009. ( 96% confidence )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2009-11-17; judged right by anonym on 2009-11-15.
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My mother or father will call me today. ( 20% confidence )
Created by popojala on 2009-11-14; known on 2009-11-15; judged wrong by popojala on 2009-11-15.
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The US economy will collapse resulting in massive inflation prior to the end of 2010. ( 30% confidence; 24 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by max on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-01-01.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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I'll make it on time (within 7 minutes of 15:00 UTC, by Sprint Mobile network time) to the OB/LW NYC meetup on 2009-11-14. ( 50% confidence )
Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2009-11-14; judged wrong by olimay on 2009-11-14.
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I will be in New York City by noon today. ( 80% confidence )
Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2009-11-14; judged wrong by olimay on 2009-11-14.
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I'll fall asleep before 5AM today. ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2009-11-14; judged wrong by olimay on 2009-11-14.
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Bell/Carry sites will be live by Friday. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Matt on 2009-11-02; known on 2009-11-07; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-11-14.
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DC practices management improvement job will be complete by Friday ( 60% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2009-11-02; known on 2009-11-07; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-11-14.
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General consensus among mathematicians that 2, 3, 5 and 7 are prime numbers will not change in the next year. ( 99% confidence; 26 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged right by jasticE on 2010-10-14.
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FOX will not pick up the show “Dollhouse” for a third season. ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jack on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-11-15; judged right by Jack on 2009-11-12.
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There will be strong evidence of technologically advanced (contemporary human level or greater) extraterrestrial life by 2016. ETA: evidence of a technologically advanced civilization existing or having existed somewhere outside our solar system. ( 6% confidence; 31 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
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There will be strong evidence of technologically advanced (contemporary human level or greater) extraterrestrial life by 2016. ETA: evidence of a technologically advanced civilization existing or having existed somewhere outside our solar system. ( 6% confidence; 31 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
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The President of the Czech Republic will sign the Lisbon Treaty before the end of June, 2010. ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-16; known on 2010-07-01; judged right by Cyan on 2009-11-10.
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General consensus among mathematicians that 2, 3, 5 and 7 are prime numbers will not change in the next year. ( 99% confidence; 26 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged right by jasticE on 2010-10-14.
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The kittens will still have giardia. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by freyley on 2009-10-20; known on 2009-10-24; judged wrong by freyley on 2009-11-10.
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I will bill 20+ hours the first week of November, 2009. ( 30% confidence )
Created by refragable on 2009-10-28; known on 2009-11-08; judged wrong by refragable on 2009-11-08.
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Someone will explain, in this prediction perhaps, how there are 623 known predictions in the statistics, but only 700 predictions sitewide, and there are way more than 100 unknown predictions. ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by freyley on 2009-10-23; known on 2009-11-06; judged wrong by freyley on 2009-11-06.
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Democratic Party Candidate will not win Virginia gubernatorial election ( 91% confidence )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by freyley on 2009-11-05.
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Democratic Candidate will win New Jersey Gubernatorial Race ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged wrong by freyley on 2009-11-05.
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'Alcopop' to win Melbourne Cup (Australian horse racing) ( 17% confidence )
Created by mjgeddes on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-11-03; judged wrong by mjgeddes on 2009-11-04.
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The Radiopaedia content cleanup will be finished by the end of the week ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Wes on 2009-10-26; known on 2009-10-30; judged right by Wes on 2009-11-03.
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Twitter.com is currently ranked 13 on Alexa. On October 31 at 7pm PST it will be ranked 13 or higher. (I've done nothing to investigate how rankings have been changing or how often.) ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ektimo on 2009-10-18; known on 2009-10-31; judged wrong by ektimo on 2009-11-03.
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The US economy will collapse resulting in massive inflation prior to the end of 2010. ( 30% confidence; 24 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by max on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-01-01.
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The US economy will collapse resulting in massive inflation prior to the end of 2010. ( 30% confidence; 24 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by max on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-01-01.
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The US economy will collapse resulting in massive inflation prior to the end of 2010. ( 30% confidence; 24 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by max on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-01-01.
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The world will end in 2012 ( 17% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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Volume 2: iphone App will sell 1000 copies in the first month ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Frank on 2009-09-22; known on 2009-11-01; judged wrong by Frank on 2009-11-02.
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I'll have made 100 predictions on prediction book by the end of the month ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2009-11-01; judged right by anonym on 2009-11-01.