Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 30% | 55% | 81% | 83% | 91% | 89% | |
Sample Size | 10 | 29 | 26 | 35 | 80 | 9 | 189 |
Displaying all predictions made by RobertLumley. Filter by:
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I will have taken over at least one country by 2035. ( 0% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-13; known on 2035-01-01.
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The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican. ( 15% confidence; 17 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.
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Within 6 months, a bombing campaign will start in Iran. ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2018-03-24; known on 2018-07-24; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.
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Republicans retain majorities in both the House and Senate after the 2018 mid terms ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jamesrom on 2018-03-21; known on 2018-11-07; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2018-11-07.
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Politics, UK – Before the end of 2018, UK government representative states that the view of the government is that the Russian government is likely not responsible for the attempted murder of Sergei Skripal ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-02.
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Bitcoin will end 2018 above $50,000 USD ( 19% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by daedalus_21 on 2018-02-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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PredictIt shows Bernie Sanders having highest chance to be Dem nominee at end of 2018. ( 35% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-02; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2019-01-02.
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GLAAD poll suggesting that LGBQ acceptance is down will mostly not be borne out by further research. ( 81% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2020-01-01.
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Trump’s approval rating lower than 40% at end of year ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Trump’s approval rating lower than 50% at end of year. ( 93% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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US government shuts down again sometime in 2018. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2018-02-09.
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No large-scale deportation of Dreamers. ( 92% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Temeraire on 2019-01-05.
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No major health-care reform legislation gets passed. ( 85% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Temeraire on 2019-01-05.
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Some sort of major immigration reform legislation gets passed. ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2019-01-13.
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PredictIt shows Donald Trump having highest chance to be GOP nominee at end of year. ( 89% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Dapple on 2019-01-02.
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Mueller does not indict Trump. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by TracyPoff on 2020-09-02.
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Mueller’s investigation gets cancelled (eg Trump fires him). ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Democrats take control of the House in midterms. ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Donald Trump remains president at end of year. ( 93% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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BTCUSD will exceed 20000 during 2018 ( 28% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sjy on 2018-01-17; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2018-12-31.
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The US Democratic Party wins a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2018 Midterm elections ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known on 2018-12-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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Hillary Clinton will announce candidacy for the 2020 US Presidential Election ( 5% confidence; 19 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-12-19; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2019-04-10.
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Democrats to gain control of US Senate in 2018 elections ( 43% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2017-12-14; known on 2018-11-07; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2018-11-07.
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Public demonstration of an AI that can learn the rules of, and play at a superhuman level, most board/card games without supervision, just watching many games and being told who won, in 2018 or 2019. ( 64% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2017-12-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-01-01.
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Public demonstration of an AI that can learn the rules of, and play at a superhuman level, most board/card games without supervision, just watching many games and being told who won, in 2018. ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by HonoreDB on 2017-12-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2019-05-20.
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Les Miles will be named head coach of the Tennessee Volunteers ( 75% confidence )
Created by RobertLumley on 2017-12-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2017-12-07.
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Les Miles will named head coach of the Tennessee Volunteers ( 75% confidence )
Created by RobertLumley on 2017-12-04; known on 2018-01-01.
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Roy Moore to win senate special election ( 65% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2017-11-27; known on 2017-12-15; judged wrong by objclone on 2017-12-13.
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US dollar becomes an asset-backed currency under Trump's first term ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jach on 2017-11-17; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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Hillary Clinton will be indicted for the sale of Uranium to Russia ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Gibs on 2017-11-12; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2018-07-02.
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We will go to war with North Korea ( 17% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Gibs on 2017-11-12; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by futurulus on 2018-07-01.
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Politics, US – Mike Flynn is indicted before the end of 2017. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-11-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by RobertLumley on 2017-12-11.
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Politics, US – Roy Moore steps down prior to the special election to fill Jeff Sessions' former senate seat. ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-11-11; known on 2017-12-13; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-12-13.
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Rand Paul will be the Republican Nominee for President for the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Season ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Faceh on 2015-01-25; known on 2016-07-21; judged wrong by Faceh on 2016-05-03.
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Jeb Bush to be next President elect of the US. ( 15% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-19; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Jeb! to be voted President of the United States. Republicans Rule House and Senate as they currently do already! ( 51% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-06-19; known on 2017-06-19; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-02-21.
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US Supreme Court to rule in favor of gay marriage. ( 76% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-06-26.
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HPMOR: The ritual Quirrell mentions in chapter 74 using a rope that has hanged a man and a sword that has killed a woman will be used to create a dementor. ( 21% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2012-09-17; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by player_03 on 2015-03-16.
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HP MoR: Bellatrix Black burned Narcissa Malfoy alive. ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2013-06-24; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HPMOR: The ritual Quirrell mentions in chapter 74 using a rope that has hanged a man and a sword that has killed a woman will be revealed to create a dementor when cast. ( 56% confidence; 19 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2012-09-17; known on 2016-01-02; judged right by Osuniev on 2015-03-28.
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Vladimir Putin will be president of Russia as of 1st January 2016 ( 91% confidence; 18 wagers )
Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by btrettel on 2016-01-01.
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Barack Obama will be President of the United States as of 1st January 2016. ( 83% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2016-01-05.
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At the end of the year, AMF will still be a GiveWell recommended charity. ( 78% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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At the end of the year, GiveDirectly will still be a GiveWell recommended charity. ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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HP MoR: Hat & Cloak is Voldemort, but not Quirrel ( 23% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-03-16; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Quirrel is Voldemort in some sense ( 89% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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HP MoR: Quirrel will spend >=2 years as Defense professor ( 2% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Harry's disturbed sleep is a clue to some unrevealed secret (and not just a Time-turner excuse) ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-27.
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HP MoR: Harry is a horcrux ( 75% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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Scott Aaronson will not make a “tearful apology” for either Comment 171 or for any related remarks that he has made as of 9 AM December 31. ( 78% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-31; known on 2015-01-25; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-25.
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By 2050 the majority of music will be “generated” and not recorded. This will include vocals. ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by msevrens on 2014-10-28; known on 2050-10-28.
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Less than 300 people will die of Ebola within the fifty United States by January 1, 2018 —Bryan Caplan ( 88% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2014-10-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by bendini on 2017-11-20.
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<10 US Fataltiies due to Ebola virus in 2014 ( 98% confidence )
Created by RobertLumley on 2014-10-12; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by RobertLumley on 2015-01-02.
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If SCOTUS hears a gay marriage case in the next 2 years the ruling will determine there is a constitutional right to gay marriage. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-27; known on 2016-09-27; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-31.
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An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100. ( 57% confidence; 18 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by nshepperd on 2014-09-08; known on 2100-01-01.
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Edward Snowden to be awarded the 2014 Nobel Peace Prize ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-19; known on 2014-10-10; judged wrong by clemux on 2014-10-11.
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Vladimir Putin to be awarded the 2014 Nobel Peace Prize ( 1% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-19; known on 2014-10-10; judged wrong by qznc on 2014-10-10.
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HP MoR: Harry had a hand in the disappearance of Hermione's corpse. ( 80% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-18; known on 2015-06-23; judged right by Roxolan on 2015-03-01.
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In HPMOR, it will turn out to be the case that Lockheart was at some point in the past (that is to say before the events of chapter 86) possessed by Voldemort's spirit. ( 6% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2012-12-17; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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HP MoR: Voldemort never intended Harry's own death on the night of his parents' death. ( 50% confidence; 21 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2011-09-04; known on 2015-11-02; judged right by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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Government shutdown will continue past Oct 8, 2013 (ie more than a week since its beginning) ( 79% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-10-04; known on 2013-10-08; judged right by foo on 2013-10-08.
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US to launch strikes on Syria by September 21, 2013 ( 23% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-08-31; known on 2013-09-21; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-09-21.
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The Overdue Predictions page on PredictionBook will be modified to not display withdrawn or changed to private (by someone else) predictions by 2014. ( 36% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2013-08-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-01-01.
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Social Experiment: By 01-01-2012, the average estimate on this prediction will be greater than or equal to 50%. ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2011-11-15; known on 9999-01-02.
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Social Experiment: By 01-01-2012, the median estimate on this prediction will be 50%. ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by RobertLumley on 2011-11-15; known on 9999-01-02.
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Social Experiment: By 01-01-2012, the average estimate on this prediction will be 0%. ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2011-11-15; known on 9999-01-02.
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Social Experiment: By 01-01-2012, the average estimate on this prediction will be 100%. ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2011-11-15; known on 9999-01-02.
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Social Experiment: By 01-01-2012, the average estimate on this prediction will be greater than or equal to 75%. ( 77% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by RobertLumley on 2011-11-15; known on 9999-01-02.
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Social Experiment: By 01-01-2012, the average estimate on this prediction will be greater than 50%. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RobertLumley on 2011-11-15; known on 9999-01-02.
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Both Congressman Duncan and Senator Corker will individually respond to my e-mail protesting SOPA/PIPA like their office said they would. ( 9% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2012-01-18; known on 2999-02-19; judged unknown by RobertLumley on 2012-04-06.
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Rand Paul will win the presidential election. He will go against the NSA, surveillance, drone strikes… all the “hot issues” for the new generation. Thousands of people will register as Republicans and vote for him to fight for a free Internet. ( 3% confidence; 21 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by tinatoys on 2013-08-03; known on 2016-11-06; judged wrong by jgauthier on 2016-11-07.
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HP MoR: The snake patronus is from Draco. ( 90% confidence; 22 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-25; known on 2013-08-21; judged right by lavalamp on 2013-08-15.
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HP MoR: We won't know who framed Hermione by 1/1/2014. Prediction inspired by http://predictionbook.com/predictions/18095 ( 36% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-06-13; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by a0c4a123f7 on 2014-01-02.
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HP MoR: Hermione has or will become a magical Hogwarts ghost ( 13% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-06-30; known on 2015-06-30; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-16.
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Created by RobertLumley on 2013-06-24; known on 2013-08-02; judged right by RobertLumley on 2013-08-02.
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Google Chrome browser will survive 5 years ( 93% confidence; 27 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin. ( 8% confidence; 14 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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In the 2016 US Presidential election, at least one Republican candidate will be publicly in favor of gay marriage and will be successful enough in the primary to get multiple delegates. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-04-24; known on 2016-09-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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HP MoR: The Hat and Cloak that interacted with Hermione is Professor McGonagall. ( 4% confidence; 20 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by cafesofie on 2012-03-25; known on 2016-04-17; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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Boston Marathon bombing perpetrated by ethnically white male. ( 61% confidence; 17 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-04-17; known on 2015-04-17; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2015-04-09.
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The next US president (after Obama) will also be a Democrat. ( 53% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Osuniev on 2013-04-15; known on 2016-11-15; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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In 25 years, infanticide will be legal in at least one U.S. state. ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2013-04-04; known on 2038-04-04.
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In 50 years, pedophilia (defined as no age restrictions on consenting partners) will be legal in at least one U.S. state. ( 1% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2013-04-04; known on 2063-04-04.
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USA to begin phase-out of pennies by start of 2016. ( 12% confidence; 30 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-13; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-01-01.
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The recently resigned pope will announce he is an atheist ( 0% confidence; 29 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-02-11; known on 2013-05-11; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2013-05-11.
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By the end of 2013, the government will have never minted a trillion dollar coin. ( 94% confidence; 27 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
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Jesus returns to planet earth before the end of 2012. ( 0% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Torquil on 2012-11-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Flipnash on 2013-08-17.
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The 2016 presidential election will be Jeb Bush v. Hillary Clinton. Yes, again! ( 14% confidence; 27 wagers; 16 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07; known on 2016-11-30; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-02-21.
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Romney won't be top 3 in 2016 Iowa causes ( 87% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07; known on 2016-06-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-10.
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Mitt Romney will win the popular vote in the 2012 US election ( 37% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-26; known on 2012-11-10; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-08.
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By 2040, no other country will have both more active nuclear warheads and higher GDP than the United States. ( 64% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-10-02; known on 2040-01-01.
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Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican. ( 51% confidence; 18 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-27; known on 2116-11-05.
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In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ( 9% confidence; 16 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-18; known on 2022-09-19; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-09-25.
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North and South Korea will reunify by 2025 ( 20% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-15; known on 2025-12-31.
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An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years. ( 8% confidence; 17 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-14; known on 2032-11-10.
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Mitt Romney will not pick a minority or woman or non-Christian or atheist or unmarried or gay person as VP (i.e. no surprises!) ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by RobertLumley on 2012-08-11.
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Turkey will invade Syria ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by modulus on 2012-06-24; known on 2012-07-15; judged wrong by modulus on 2012-07-15.
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Ecuador will accept Julian Assange for asylum before 2014 ( 39% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-06-20; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-08-16.
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Neither the Republican Candidate for President nor the Democratic Candidate for President will win Arizona in 2012. ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-13; known on 2012-12-01; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-11-07.
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LessWrong user XiXiDu or a XiXiDu sockpuppet will post a comment or article to lesswrong.com before 2018 ( 89% confidence; 12 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-06-03; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-09-04.