Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 33% | 100% | 64% | 78% | 89% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 6 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 44 |
Displaying all predictions made by lukefreeman. Filter by:
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23 or more US senators will be women by the end of January 2019 ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukefreeman on 2018-08-30; known on 2019-01-31; judged right by lukefreeman on 2019-01-31.
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Politics, US – Texas Will not elect a Democratic senator in 2018 ( 69% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukefreeman on 2018-09-23; known on 2018-11-07; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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A Democratic House will impeach President Trump before the 2020 elections ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by lukefreeman on 2018-09-11; known on 2020-11-10; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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The World Health Organization or the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will declare an influenza pandemic before 2019? ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukefreeman on 2018-09-04; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by lukefreeman on 2019-01-01.
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A restaurant will be serving cultured meat by 2021 ( 69% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lukefreeman on 2018-08-28; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by lukefreeman on 2021-01-05.
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SpaceX will land people on Mars prior to 2030 ( 45% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukefreeman on 2018-08-28; known on 2030-01-01.
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Australia will have an election before the end of January ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by lukefreeman on 2018-08-25; known on 2019-01-31; judged wrong by lukefreeman on 2019-01-31.
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Trump will not be re-elected in 2020 ( 58% confidence; 18 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by SeriousPod on 2018-08-02; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by avi on 2020-11-07.
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Democrats will not take the senate in 2018 ( 63% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by SeriousPod on 2018-08-02; known on 2018-11-07; judged right by lukefreeman on 2018-11-07.
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Testing again ( 51% confidence )
Created by lukefreeman on 2018-07-29; known on 2018-07-30.
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I will make it to hiking if it’s on Sunday June 3 ( 50% confidence )
Created by lukefreeman on 2018-05-20; known on 2018-06-03.
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I will make it to hiking if it is on Saturday June 2nd ( 30% confidence )
Created by lukefreeman on 2018-05-20; known on 2018-06-02; judged wrong by lukefreeman on 2018-06-02.
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Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un will meet in 2018. ( 78% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by avi on 2018-06-12.
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Trump wins Nobel ( 10% confidence; 41 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2018-05-03; known on 2030-01-01.
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test ( 100% confidence )
Created by lukefreeman on 2018-04-30; known on 2018-04-30.
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test ( 50% confidence )
Created by lukefreeman on 2018-04-30; known on 2018-04-30.
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SC will come to the second weekend of the 2018 EA retreat downunder ( 80% confidence )
Created by lukefreeman on 2018-04-02; known on 2018-04-28; judged right by lukefreeman on 2018-04-29.
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Trump will be President on 12/31/18 ( 85% confidence; 18 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Joni will find the fact that I love this site funny, but unsurprising ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by lukefreeman on 2017-07-10; known on 2017-07-10; judged right by lukefreeman on 2017-07-10.