Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 57% | 67% | 71% | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 7 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 2 | 39 |
Displaying all predictions made by Vulture. Filter by:
-
I have an iron deficiency ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Vulture on 2014-01-20; known on 2018-04-22.
-
HP MoR: any superintelligent or FOOMing AGI/AI will appear as a character/device in the story ( 11% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-28; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by tedks on 2015-05-01.
-
HP MoR: Harry will create a superintelligent AI using magic or magical objects ( 9% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
-
HP MoR: story completed during Harry's first year of Hogwarts ( 73% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
-
HP MoR: There will be at least one onscreen polyamorous relationship in the Methods of Rationality. ( 30% confidence; 15 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
-
HP MoR: Harry had a hand in the disappearance of Hermione's corpse. ( 80% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-18; known on 2015-06-23; judged right by Roxolan on 2015-03-01.
-
Within one week, the LessWrong post “White Lies” will have 800 comments or more ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Vulture on 2014-02-15; known on 2014-02-22; judged right by Vulture on 2014-02-21.
-
Sochi Olympics will not be obvious disaster (ie spectacular violence, protests that utterly overshadow events, or have to be stopped early) ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vulture on 2014-02-04; known on 2014-02-23; judged right by Vulture on 2014-02-24.
-
There are unique 50 wagers on this prediction by April 1st, 2014. ( 69% confidence; 62 wagers; 71 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-04-02; judged right by rickyrich98 on 2014-04-02.
-
Scotland votes 'yes' for independence. ( 38% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-31; known on 2014-09-19; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
-
MIRI will continue operating in end of 2014. ( 92% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
-
Bitcoins will reach more than 2000$ (at least one time) during the year 2014. ( 36% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2014-01-26; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
-
2014: No one will win $1billion from Warren Buffett by submitting a perfect NCAA pool ( 99% confidence; 16 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2014-01-23; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2014-03-27.
-
Conditional on the current MP4 RfC failing to gain consensus for use of the format, the WMF will enable uploading in MP4 anyway and be met with community outcry ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Vulture on 2014-01-22; known on 2014-02-18; judged wrong by Vulture on 2014-02-20.
-
Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality reaches a conclusion (not counting chapters explicitly denoted as Epilogues) before the end of 2014 and also before Homestuck finishes Act 7 (not counting “Psyche” fake-endings). ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by orthonormal on 2014-01-22; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by orthonormal on 2015-01-15.
-
When the Wikimedia Commons RfC on the MP4 format closes, the majority of the !votes will be against any use of the format ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Vulture on 2014-01-20; known on 2014-02-14; judged right by Vulture on 2014-02-15.
-
Sherlock season 4 will be out by Christmas. ( 23% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by shadow1537 on 2014-01-20; known on 2014-12-25; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-25.
-
Gangnam Style (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bZkp7q19f0) will have 2 billion views by the end of 2014. ( 82% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-20; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by dk on 2014-06-08.
-
HPMoR will be fully completed by chapter 111. (That is to say, it will have no more than 111 chapters, including all the remaining arcs, and all epilogues.) ( 20% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by ygert on 2014-01-15; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-03-14.
-
One of the years 2014-2016 will be the hottest year ever. ( 60% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-15; known on 2017-02-01; judged right by waveman on 2015-02-02.
-
Snowden will be granted an official pardon by Barack Obama by January 2015. ( 5% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by entropy on 2014-01-14; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by ciil on 2015-01-01.
-
There will be less than 5 alt-coins (out of the 50+ in existence) that will survive 2014 – http://lightspeedindia.wordpress.com/2014/01/13/bitcoin-2014-top-10-predictions/ ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2014-01-13; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2015-01-02.
-
By 2030 consciousness, free will and qualia will be recognized as emergent properties of certain intelligences, and not phenomena that are dependent on any “spirit”, “god” or quantum magic. This bc of progress in AI. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-05; known on 2030-01-02.
-
Eliezer will mention/recommend the story “The Last Christmas” in the next Author's Note for HPMOR. ( 90% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ygert on 2014-01-05; known on 2014-02-01; judged right by ygert on 2014-02-02.
-
“Bitcoin will trade for under $10 a share by the first half of 2014.” — Mark T. Williams (http://www.businessinsider.com/williams-bitcoin-meltdown-10-2013-12) ( 5% confidence; 21 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2013-12-18; known on 2014-07-01; judged wrong by clemux on 2014-07-01.
-
Chris Dixon: Amazon.com will be using bitcoins in 5 years (by 1/1/2019) ( 33% confidence; 26 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-12-13; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
iPhone 6's will have a larger screen than iPhone 5's. ( 55% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by eren on 2013-12-04; known on 2014-12-16; judged right by eren on 2014-09-20.
-
The majority of people eligible for Obamacare won't be enrolled by April 13, 2014. ( 63% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by recondaddy on 2013-10-13; known on 2014-04-13; judged right by procran on 2014-05-18.
-
The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033. ( 18% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Omid on 2013-08-22; known on 2033-01-01.
-
The Euro will not be dead by 2016 ( 94% confidence; 29 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by challquist on 2013-04-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
-
Gwern has dissociative identity disorder and the identity of his split personality is Yvain. ( 0% confidence; 28 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2020-01-01.
-
'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' —Kevin ( 14% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-01; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
-
Eliezer Yudkowsky's book on rationality will be published within 3 years. ( 46% confidence; 25 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2014-10-04; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-10-04.