Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 100% | 100% | 80% | 75% | 100% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
Displaying all predictions made by imaxwell. Filter by:
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My relationship with L. will be ongoing as of the end of 2018. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by imaxwell on 2018-06-30; known on 2018-12-31.
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In February, Bitcoin prices will hit an ATL. And also rise to within $3800 of the ATH ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Nve on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-03-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-03-01.
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I will not change employers in the year 2018 ( 80% confidence )
Created by imaxwell on 2018-01-02; known on 2018-12-31.
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My relationship with L. will still be ongoing as of the end of June 2018 ( 46% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by imaxwell on 2018-01-02; known on 2018-06-30; judged right by imaxwell on 2018-06-30.
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Current Iranian regime is overthrown by April 2018 ( 6% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2018-01-02; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2018-04-02.
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Francis is still Pope on 1/1/19 ( 87% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Bitcoin at 10,000,000$/BTC (or equivalent in VEF or other currency) on any market where trading occurs. ( 6% confidence; 16 wagers; 31 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-10; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by bendini on 2017-12-27.
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SpaceX makes a successful launch before the end of January 2017 ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-01-10; known on 2017-02-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-01-14.
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I will get that elective surgery before the end of June. ( 70% confidence )
Created by imaxwell on 2017-01-10; known on 2017-06-30; judged right by imaxwell on 2017-04-21.
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Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state ( 0% confidence; 35 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-10; known on 2025-01-01.
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Scott (of slatestarcodex)'s accuracy / calibration will be about as good as it was last year, not materially worse ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-03.
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US does not withdraw from large trade org like WTO or NAFTA in 2017 ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by imaxwell on 2018-01-02.
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No serious impeachment proceedings are active against Trump at the end of 2017 ( 82% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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A meme will exist and be relatively frequent, saying 2017 was even worse than 2016. ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.