Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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The energy source formerly known as cold fusion will be generally accepted as real by end 2012. ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by waveman on 2012-01-13; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-31.
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The GDP per capita (PPP) of Hong Kong (judged by the IMF) will exceed that of the USA before 2013. ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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Amadou Toumani Toure known dead on Dec 31 ( 30% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2012-03-26; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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Amadou Toumani Toure known alive on Dec 31 ( 60% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2012-03-26; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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Facebook will fall as low as $15 in 2012 ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-29; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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Apple long-rumored TV product will not arrive in 2012 ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-12; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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Hugo Chavez dies in the year 2012 ( 27% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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The energy source formerly known as cold fusion will be generally accepted as real by end 2012. ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by waveman on 2012-01-13; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-31.
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Iran will not successfully test a nuclear weapon in 2012. ( 93% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by smijer on 2012-01-11; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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No new federal gun laws will be passed in 2012 as a result of the Colorado shooting ( 75% confidence; 7 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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No elected government will hold power in Egypt in 2012 ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by _W_ on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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Bashar al-Assad will not be president of Syria on Dec 31 2012 ( 36% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by georgesdelatour on 2012-01-01; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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The world will not end on December 2012. ( 99% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by puya on 2011-03-18; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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Assad will remain in power in Syria until end of 2012. ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by fiftytwo on 2012-12-04; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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There will be a third party candidate that gets more than 5% in the 2012 election for president in the US. ( 19% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-15; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin will be inaugurated as President of Russia in 2012. ( 84% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by Grrrr on 2012-12-31.
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I will have completed all (367) exercises on Khan Academy by the end of 2012. ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-09-29; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Pablo on 2012-12-31.
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GJP: #1081 Will the Nigerian government and Boko Haram commence official talks before 31 December 2012? ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-07; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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Bitcoin/USD prices: “best case, 10 bucks. Worst case, 5 bucks.” —kiba ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-31; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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GJP: #1053 By 31 December 2012, will the UK officially announce its intention* to withdraw from the EU? ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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GJP: Iran to conduct a successful nuclear test before December 31, 2012 ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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“Cuba to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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GJP: Kim Jong-Il or his designated successor to be in charge of North Korea as of December 31, 2012 ( 86% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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“Any country currently using the Euro to announce their intention to drop it midnight ET 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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“The Freedom Tower to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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“The Chicago Spire to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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The WTC mosque will be relocated. —Roger Ebert ( 30% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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“Twitter to announce an IPO before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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“By the end of 2012, more than 50% of the root servers on the internet will be located outside the United States.” ( 95% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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USA will be out of the Middle East by the end of 2012 ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by tjross on 2010-03-23; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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“A cap and trade system for emissions trading to be established before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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“China to conduct overt military action against Taiwan before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-31.
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“Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-31.
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“Iran to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-31.
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“Syria to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-31.
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“Sudan to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-31.
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WTI Oil front month (96 US$ today) will go lower and reach 50 US$ by the end of 2012 ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by herb on 2011-11-21; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-31.
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Apple TV to debut in December 2012 —Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-26; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.
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Over the next year or two, Apple will bring Cocoa development to the Windows desktop via an App Store that sells titles to a broad audience — Daniel Eran Dilger http://bit.ly/aXTPXK ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-11-15; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.
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The smallest federated wiki will move beyond the stage of proof of concept this year. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-02-16; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.
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I will still learn French by the end of the year. ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-04-25; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.
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Apple smartphones will have under 30% US market share at the end of 2012 ( 70% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2011-10-09; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.
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'NASA to announce discovery of extraterrestrial life before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012' —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.
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“United States to conduct overt military action against North Korea before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.
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Facebook won't buy Opera (the browser) in 2012 ( 77% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-26; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.
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Facebook shares will not pass 100$ per share by the end of 2012. ( 87% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidiach on 2012-06-06; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.
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I'll be able to stick to my 2012 New Year resolution of 'no mammal meat for a year' till Dec 31, 2012. ( 20% confidence; 8 comments )
Created by roshni on 2012-03-05; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by roshni on 2012-12-31.
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Hugo Chavez dies in the year 2012 ( 27% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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Hugo Chavez dies in the year 2012 ( 27% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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I will consume a story (book, movie, comic…) in french primarly for enjoyment and not language learning. ( 45% confidence )
Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-01-03; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.