Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 65% | 67% | 73% | 88% | 91% | 80% | |
Sample Size | 1033 | 269 | 129 | 197 | 347 | 45 | 2020 |
Displaying all predictions made by themusicgod1. Filter by:
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Tech – Arrests made in connection with the the WannaCry ransomware before the 19th of June 2017 ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-12; known on 2017-06-20; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-20.
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c will livestream Mushroom 11 before May 24 ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-05-10; known on 2017-05-24; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-05-24.
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Michael Chong elected leader of Conservative Party of Canada ( 9% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-09; known on 2017-05-28; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-28.
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Labour will win in Cambridge ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-05-09; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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Labour will win in Midlothian ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-05-09; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by splorridge on 2017-06-09.
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Labour will win in Nottingham South. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-05-09; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by splorridge on 2017-06-09.
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Labour will win in Nottingham East. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-05-09; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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Labour will win in Nottingham North. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-05-09; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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Server “Aisha” upgrades to Ubuntu 17.10 to successful boot/apache/emacs ( 67% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-08; known on 2017-05-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-08.
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Macron is going to select a prime minister ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Orian2 on 2017-05-08; known on 2017-05-20; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-06.
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J shows up today as agreed ( 61% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-07; known on 2017-05-08; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-08.
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Maduro will not be president of Venezuela within one year ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-05-07; known on 2018-05-07; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-05-10.
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July 7, 2017 will live in infamy . ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by baltemose on 2017-05-06; known on 2017-07-07; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-08.
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Zuckerberg runs for POTUS, takes part in primaries for one of {Republican, Democrat} party and lasts to be at least in top 5 candidates ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-06; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
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The number of unique commenters on this prediction will be less than 30 OR the number of unique accounts who add wagers will be less than 80. by May 8th 11.30 AM UTC. ( 79% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Sahil on 2017-05-05; known on 2017-05-08; judged right by danielfilan on 2017-05-09.
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McDonalds Germany will have served vegan burgers in their restaurants by the end of 2017. ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by maxra on 2017-05-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by maxra on 2018-01-02.
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3-4 miners do 80%+ of mining for bitcoin [and any other mined cryptocurrency with bigger marketcap in USD than bitcoin] ( 59% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-01; known on 2018-12-31.
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W3C VCTF goes to CR ( 41% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-30; known on 2018-12-01.
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i am still alive ( 92% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-30; known on 2018-01-01.
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Manage to make the REDACTED sufficiently fun and interesting that we can get the core concepts integrated into the series by REDACTED. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Temeraire on 2017-04-29; known on 2021-01-01.
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Politics, US – Trump or a representative announces the relocation of the US embassy to Jerusalem by the end of the 7th of June. ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-28; known on 2017-06-08; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-08.
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I go to Kenya in June or July 2017 ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-27; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-08-01.
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Fires started during the Berkeley protest today ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-27; known on 2017-04-29; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-04-30.
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Tear gas deployed in Berkeley today ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-27; known on 2017-04-29; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-04-30.
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I go to Ethiopia in June or July 2017 ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-27; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-08-01.
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L comes to DEF CON in July 2017 ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-27; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-08-01.
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https://gnosis.pm survives longer than predictionbook ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-25; known on 3000-01-01.
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Trump tweets about the stolen radioactive material in mexico ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-25; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-01-31.
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Trump tweets about the stolen radioactive material in mexico ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-25; known on 2017-05-25; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-25.
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Microsoft buys Cloudflare ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-24; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2022-01-02.
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President of France 2017 elections: Someone that is not Macron, Fillon, Le Pen or Melenchon makes to second round or wins on first round ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2017-04-23; known on 2017-04-25; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-04-24.
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President of France 2017 elections: Le Pen makes to second round or wins on first round ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2017-04-23; known on 2017-04-25; judged right by kuudes on 2017-04-24.
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Emmanuel Macron will be elected the next President of France. ( 77% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-23; known on 2017-05-08; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-05-07.
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Politics, US – A bill repealing and/or replacing the ACA passes Congress by the end of May. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-22; known on 2017-06-01; judged wrong by pkfalu92 on 2017-06-01.
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As of January 1, 2018, there will be at least five songs with over a billion streams each on Spotify. ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-22; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-12-11.
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On or before January 1, 2020, there will be at least one YouTube video with over 4 billion views. ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-22; known on 2020-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-10-12.
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As of January 1, 2020, there will be at least five YouTube videos with over three billion views each https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_viewed_YouTube_videos ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-22; known on 2020-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2018-04-05.
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As of January 1, 2019, there will be at least five YouTube videos with over three billion views each https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_viewed_YouTube_videos ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-22; known on 2019-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2018-04-05.
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Something else breaks in test 1 ( 1% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-22; known on 2017-04-23; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-22.
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Palemoon breaks first in test 1. ( 59% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-22; known on 2017-04-23; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-22.
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Steem breaks first in test 1. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-22; known on 2017-04-23; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-22.
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Politics, UK – A spokesperson for the Government states that it intends to retain freedom of movement with the EU, by the end of June 2017. ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-20; known on 2017-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-07-01.
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Politics, UK – A new Labour leadership election is announced before the end of June 2017. ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-19; known on 2017-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-07-01.
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Scotland & Canada are one country on July 15th, 2019 ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-20; known on 2019-07-15; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2019-07-15.
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Scotland & Canada are one country on July 15th, 2018 ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-20; known on 2018-07-15; judged wrong by ioannes on 2018-07-15.
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Tech – Google announces that they are adding some form of ad blocking feature to Chrome before the end of May 2017. ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-20; known on 2017-06-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-01.
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Politics, UK – Theresa May attends a TV debate with one or more leaders of other parties before the next UK General Election. ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-19; known on 2017-06-09; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-09.
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10 or fewer political parties win seats in the 2017 UK election ( 54% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-19; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by penten on 2017-06-09.
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Russia is found guilty of crimes against humanity at the ICJ ( 51% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-19; known on 2017-04-19; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-19.
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The UK snap general election results in a hung parliment ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by penten on 2017-04-19; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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The Scottish National Party will win at least 50 seats in the snap General Election. ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-04-18; known on 2017-06-09; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-06-09.
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The Scottish National Party will win the same number of seats as in 2015. ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2017-04-18; known on 2017-06-09; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-06-09.
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The UK Liberal Democratic party will gain seats as a result of the general election on 8th June ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2017-04-18; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by penten on 2017-06-09.
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The UK Labour Party will lose seats as a result of the general election on 8th June ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-04-18; known on 2017-06-09; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-06-09.
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The UK Conservative Party will increase its majority in parliament as a result of the general election on 8th June. ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-04-18; known on 2017-06-09; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-06-09.
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terrorist attack in boston on the day of the boston marathon (unsuccessful attempts included) ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2017-04-17; known on 2017-04-19; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2017-04-19.
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This claim will be withdrawn ( 100% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-16; known on 2018-01-01; judged unknown by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-16.
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Consumer-level “Trans cranial magnetic stimulation orgasmatron” (TMS device capable of producing orgasm ) hits the market ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-15; known on 2018-12-24; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-27.
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nasdaq composite <= 3800 at any point in 2017 ( 49% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-15; known on 2018-01-01.
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Politics, US – A member of the Trump campaign is arrested in connection with an investigation into communications with Russian agents or the Russian government before the end of 2017-04-22. ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-15; known on 2017-04-23; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-04-24.
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“Yes” succeeds in Turkey's referendum ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-04-17; judged right by ioannes on 2017-04-17.
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More than 10,000 US troops deployed in North Korea by June 1, 2017 ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-06-02; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-01.
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More than 1,000 US troops deployed in North Korea by June 1, 2017 ( 9% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-06-02; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-01.
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10,000 CAD$ / bitcoin on non-localbitcoins exchange shown on bitcoinwatch (or equivalent if bitcoinwatch goes down) ( 51% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-12-31.
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Ubuntu 16.10->17.04 upgrade on computer “Hedy” will result in a booting machine, to at least emacs, a web browser with access to the www, and a bitcoin client. ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-13; known on 2017-04-14; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-13.
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Predictionbook gets taken over by prediction market fetishists(rule 34), most new predictions are of a sexual nature ( 46% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-13; known on 2037-01-01.
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Brad Trost becomes prime minister of canada ( 13% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-12; known on 2074-01-01.
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I will cancel Netflix before my trial ends ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-12; known on 2017-05-04; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-19.
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Conditional on using computers by the end of the 2018, I will still be using org-mode to organize the stuff I need to do ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-12; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
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Conditional on using computers by the end of the 2017, I will still be using org-mode to organize the stuff I need to do ( 82% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-12; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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I will finish reading Finite and Infinite Games within 1,000 years. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-12; known on 3017-04-12; judged right by Somni on 2017-07-16.
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The TDT gambit will work and upon smelling the stains Jess will message me the colour of her パンツ if she is wearing them or “nayki wayki” &c if she is not. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-12; known on 2017-04-13; judged wrong by Somni on 2017-04-13.
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I will retrieve my passport today. ( 44% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-12; known on 2017-04-13; judged wrong by Somni on 2017-04-13.
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Gold will hit US$1300 by May 1st 2017 ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by nortil on 2017-04-12; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-06.
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The United States will be in an active, major war with North Korea as of May 1, 2017. ( 8% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-11; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-05-01.
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I will be able to complete `Move EdiNordstrom orders behind a cutover to new Trading` story within estimate ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Joy on 2017-04-10; known on 2017-04-12; judged right by Joy on 2017-04-12.
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Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-10; known on 2022-12-31.
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I will finish reading Finite and Infinite Games by [17.4.10.12.00.PST]. ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-10; known on 2017-04-10; judged wrong by Somni on 2017-04-11.
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Bitcoin will be worth $1500 us by December 2017. ( 81% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by nortil on 2017-04-10; known on 2017-12-15; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-12-19.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky's “estimate of the optimal age will be twenty years higher” than it was in 2008 ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-09; known on 2028-05-30.
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North Korea conducts a nuclear test within 14 days [2017-04-09] ( 48% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-04-09; known on 2017-04-23; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-04-23.
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North Korea conducts a nuclear test within 21 days [2017-04-09] ( 51% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-04-09; known on 2017-04-30; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-04-30.
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UK – Culprit of acid attack in Islington identified and identified to have had religious motivations by end of April 2017. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-09; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-05-04.
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Politics, Europe – Greek delayed bailout payment negotiations conclude with agreement to release the payment, by end of April 2017. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-09; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-05-04.
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Politics, US – Steve Bannon leaves the White House by the end of April 2017 ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-08; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-05-01.
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Syria – A chemical weapon attack involving a nerve agent occurs between 8th April 2017 and the end of 2017, committed by any party. ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-08; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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Syria – Credible forensic evidence that a chemical weapons storage or manufacturing location existed in Khan Sheikhoun emerges before the end of 2017. ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-08; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-01-03.
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Debian outlives Ubuntu as a project. Ubuntu 'ceases to exist' or 'gets bought out and no longer offers FLOSS OS' or 'ceases all development' while Debian remains active ( 53% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-08; known on 2037-01-02.
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The 2017 Apr 07 attack on Stockholm, Sweden was done by a person or persons who support Islamic extremism ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-04-07; known on 2017-05-07; judged right by playablecharacter on 2017-04-08.
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Hyperion sells 300 nuclear reactors ( 40% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-06; known on 2017-12-31.
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nuclear war by july 7, 2017 ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-06; known on 2017-07-08; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-08.
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CPT symmetry violated ( 13% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-05; known on 2099-12-31.
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The Republicans will use the nuclear option to approve Gorsuch. ( 80% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by SeriousPod on 2017-04-04; known on 2017-04-18; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-04-06.
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Certain friend will kill themselves this century ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-04-01; known on 2101-01-01.
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By 2017-04-16 Sun: I buy Olympic weightlifting shoes, squat shoes, or other shoes I deem similar (currently intended in plurality for squatting). ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-04-01; known on 2017-04-17; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-04-29.
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North Korea conducts a nuclear test within 30 days [2017-04-01] ( 46% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-04-01; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-05-01.
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Politics, US – Deal struck involving at least one Democrat to confirm Gorsuch to Supreme Court in April. ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-01; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-04-07.
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Politics, US – Constitutional option used to confirm Gorsuch to Supreme Court in April. ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-01; known on 2017-05-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-04-07.
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Politics, UK – Ken Livingstone is expelled from Labour as a result of the disciplinary hearing on his comments claiming Hitler supported Zionism. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-03-31; known on 2017-04-05; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-04-07.
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Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2018 ( 82% confidence; 52 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2017-03-31; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.