Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 42% | 65% | 70% | 57% | 73% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 38 | 49 | 20 | 14 | 11 | 0 | 132 |
Displaying all predictions made by niplav. Filter by:
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Will >15 PredictionBook users import their predictions to Fatebook using https://fatebook.io/import-from-prediction-book by August 1st? ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jellyberg on 2023-07-12; known on 2023-08-01; judged right by jellyberg on 2023-08-10.
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On days with caffeine, the variance of values for creativity during the day was lower than on placebo days. ( 65% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-27; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-27.
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On days with caffeine, the variance of values for productivity during the day was lower than on placebo days. ( 40% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-27; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-27.
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On days with caffeine, my average creativity during the day was higher than days with placebo. ( 55% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-27; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-27.
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On days with caffeine, my average productivity during the day was higher than days with placebo. ( 52% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-27; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-27.
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A-38 was caffeine. ( 40% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-26; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-37 was caffeine. ( 70% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-26; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-36 was caffeine. ( 35% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-26; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-35 was caffeine. ( 40% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-26; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-34 was caffeine. ( 65% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-26; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-33 was caffeine. ( 50% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-26; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-32 was caffeine. ( 35% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-26; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-31 was caffeine. ( 60% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-26; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-30 was caffeine. ( 40% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-26; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-29 was caffeine. ( 55% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-26; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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λ<4 for the creativity values. ( 80% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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λ<4 for the producitvity values. ( 75% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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λ<1 for the creativity values. ( 45% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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λ<1 for the productivity values. ( 40% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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λ<4 for the chastity values. ( 95% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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λ<4 for the relaxation values. ( 90% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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λ<4 for the contentment values. ( 90% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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λ<4 for the happiness values. ( 85% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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λ<1 for the chastity values. ( 60% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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λ<1 for the relaxation values. ( 37% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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λ<1 for the contentment values. ( 40% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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λ<1 for the happiness values. ( 45% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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On days with caffeine, the variance of values for chastity during the day was lower than on placebo days. ( 50% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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On days with caffeine, the variance of values for relaxation during the day was lower than on placebo days. ( 30% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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On days with caffeine, the variance of values for contentment during the day was lower than on placebo days. ( 30% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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On days with caffeine, the variance of values for happiness during the day was lower than on placebo days. ( 55% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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On days with caffeine, my average chastity during the day was higher than days with placebo. ( 50% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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On days with caffeine, my average relaxation during the day was higher than days with placebo. ( 35% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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On days with caffeine, my average contentment during the day was higher than days with placebo. ( 45% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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On days with caffeine, my average happiness during the day was higher than days with placebo. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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λ<4 for the absorption values. ( 88% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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λ<4 for the mindfulness values. ( 82% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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λ<1 for the absorption values. ( 25% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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λ<1 for the mindfulness values. ( 20% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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On days with caffeine, the variance of values for absorption during meditation was lower than on placebo days. ( 35% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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On days with caffeine, the variance of values for mindfulness during meditation was lower than on placebo days. ( 55% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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On days with caffeine, my average absorption during meditation was higher than days with placebo. ( 40% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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On days with caffeine, my average mindfulness during meditation was higher than days with placebo. ( 60% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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My prediction about the content of the pill has a log score of more than -0.5. ( 60% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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My prediction about the content of the pill is more accurate than random guesses. ( 80% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-50 was caffeine. ( 75% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-49 was caffeine. ( 10% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-48 was caffeine. ( 40% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-47 was caffeine. ( 60% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-46 was caffeine. ( 40% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-45 was caffeine. ( 50% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-44 was caffeine. ( 35% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-43 was caffeine. ( 70% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-42 was caffeine. ( 55% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-41 was caffeine. ( 15% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-40 was caffeine. ( 65% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-39 was caffeine. ( 30% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-28 was caffeine. ( 75% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-27 was caffeine. ( 35% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-26 was caffeine. ( 45% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-25 was caffeine. ( 75% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-24 was caffeine. ( 50% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-23 was caffeine. ( 30% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-22 was caffeine. ( 70% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-21 was caffeine. ( 65% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-20 was caffeine. ( 60% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-19 was caffeine. ( 45% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-18 was caffeine. ( 55% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-17 was caffeine. ( 50% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-16 was caffeine. ( 35% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-15 was caffeine. ( 40% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-14 was caffeine. ( 70% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-13 was caffeine. ( 60% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-12 was caffeine. ( 80% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-11 was caffeine. ( 40% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-10 was caffeine. ( 45% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-9 was caffeine. ( 65% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-8 was caffeine. ( 25% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-7 was caffeine. ( 60% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-6 was caffeine. ( 70% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-5 was caffeine. ( 55% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-4 was caffeine. ( 50% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-04-05; known on 2023-12-01; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-3 was caffeine ( 45% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-04-05; known on 2023-12-01; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-2 was caffeine ( 40% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-04-05; known on 2023-12-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-1 was caffeine. ( 65% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-04-05; known on 2023-12-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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We will not have a Singularity or intelligence explosion of the sort predicted by Yudkowsky in 'The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate – LessWrong' by 2035 ( 72% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-06-22; known on 2035-01-01.
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I will meet Miss Beige in person again. ( 25% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2022-12-04; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-01-22.
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I will meet Miss Jyväskylä in person again. ( 40% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2022-12-04; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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I will meet Miss Snow White in person again. ( 35% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2022-12-04; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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I will meet Miss Teeth in person again. ( 60% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2022-12-04; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-01-22.
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I will meet Miss Sheep in person again. ( 10% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2022-11-22; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-01-22.
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I will meet Miss Checkers in person again. ( 35% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2022-11-22; known on 2023-06-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-01-22.
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I will meet Miss Propaganda in person again. ( 5% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2022-11-22; known on 2023-06-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-01-22.
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I will meet Miss Piano in person again. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav on 2022-11-22; known on 2023-06-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-12-04.
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I will meet Miss Pink Panther in person again. ( 40% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2022-11-22; known on 2023-06-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-01-22.
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Miss Piano answers my ping text. ( 45% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2022-11-22; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-11-22.
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Will mastodonusercount@bitcoinhackers.org report more than 50 million accounts? ( 20% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2022-11-21; known on 2024-01-01.
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Miss Sheep will reply to my feeler text ( 55% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2022-11-21; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-11-21.
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Miss Checkers will reply to my feeler text ( 80% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2022-11-21; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-11-21.
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Miss Pink Panther will reply to my feeler text ( 60% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2022-11-21; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-11-21.