Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Griffin will make it out of groups. (LoL). ( 40% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26; known on 2019-10-12; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.
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J-Team will make it out of groups. (LoL). ( 30% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26; known on 2019-10-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.
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Gigabyte Marines will make it out of groups. (LoL). ( 50% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26; known on 2019-10-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.
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SKT will make it out of groups. (LoL). ( 65% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26; known on 2019-10-12; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.
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RNG will make it out of groups. (LoL). ( 45% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26; known on 2019-10-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.
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Team Liquid will make it out of group stage. (LoL). ( 60% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26; known on 2019-10-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.
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IG will make it out of groups. (LoL). ( 70% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26; known on 2019-10-12; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.
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AHQ will make it out of groups. (LoL). ( 10% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26; known on 2019-10-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.
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G2 will make it out of group stage. (LoL). ( 80% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26; known on 2019-10-12; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.
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FunPlus Phoenix will make it out of groups. (LoL). ( 90% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26; known on 2019-10-12; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.
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The NDA will win the India's 2019 General Elections ( 86% confidence )
Created by Nve on 2018-02-13; known on 2019-12-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.
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Charity Science: Health becomes (or creates) a GiveWell top charity by giving season 2019 ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2019-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.
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By 2019, for the first time in history, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato) will not account for a majority of worldwide defence expenditure. It accounted for almost two-thirds of global spending as recently as 2010,” said IHS. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-10; known on 2019-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.
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The Brexit Party to win the most seats in the next UK General Election ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-06-02; known on 2022-05-06; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-25.
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Rey is Luke's daughter. ( 59% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2015-12-29; known on 2019-12-29; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2019-11-01.
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Dave Peterson bought me an electric shaver for Christmas. ( 60% confidence )
Created by dmwit on 2019-12-15; known on 2019-12-28; judged wrong by dmwit on 2019-12-23.
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[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for November 2019 to exceed 110 ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2019-12-25; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-23.
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[Fighting] Rico Verhoeven to beat Badr Hari in their December 2019 fight ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-12-22; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-23.
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[Fighting] Rico Verhoeven and Badr Hari to fight as scheduled on 2019-12-21 ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-12-22; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-23.
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No WeWork IPO in 2019 ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by batemancapital on 2019-09-16; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by batemancapital on 2019-12-23.
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The Keyholder will win the Heaven or Hell prestige class contest on Giants in the Playground ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-07-04; known on 2018-08-30; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2019-12-22.
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[Fighting] Colby Covington to have a title fight in 2019 ( 52% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-20.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 13 or more ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-01; known on 2019-12-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-20.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 12 ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-01; known on 2019-12-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-20.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 11 ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-01; known on 2019-12-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-20.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 10 ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-01; known on 2019-12-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-20.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 9 ( 17% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-01; known on 2019-12-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-20.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 8 ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-01; known on 2019-12-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-20.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 7 ( 25% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-01; known on 2019-12-20; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-20.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 6 ( 13% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-01; known on 2019-12-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-20.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 5 ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-01; known on 2019-12-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-20.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 4 or fewer ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-01; known on 2019-12-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-20.
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[US politics] House of Representatives to vote on Trump impeachment articles before 2020-05-09 ( 59% confidence; 20 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2020-05-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-19.
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Donald Trump will not be impeached or resign in his first term ( 66% confidence; 33 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Bismagician on 2017-05-18; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by CaelumCodicem on 2019-12-19.
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Donald Trump to be impeached in 2019 ( 24% confidence; 25 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-19.
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Trump will not be impeached ( 78% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2025-01-30; judged wrong by regex on 2019-12-19.
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[Forbes “The World's 100 Most Powerful Women” for 2019] to include fewer than five Americans in the top 10 ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-18.
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[Forbes “The World's 100 Most Powerful Women” for 2019] to include at least 7 Americans in the top 10 ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-18.
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[Forbes “The World's 100 Most Powerful Women” for 2019] to include at least six Americans in the top 10 ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-18.
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[Forbes “The World's 100 Most Powerful Women” for 2019] to include at least five Americans in the top 10 ( 84% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-18.
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[Forbes “The World's 100 Most Powerful Women” for 2019] to give an American top spot ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-18.
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[Forbes “The World's 100 Most Powerful Women” for 2019] to give Angela Merkel top spot ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-18.
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[Forbes “The World's 100 Most Powerful Women” for 2019] to give Theresa May top spot ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-18.
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[Forbes “The World's 100 Most Powerful Women” for 2019] to include anyone from mainland China in top 10 ( 13% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-18.
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[Forbes “The World's 100 Most Powerful Women” for 2019] to include Taiwan president Tsai Ing-wen ( 93% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-18.
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[Forbes “The World's 100 Most Powerful Women” for 2019] to include Estonia Reform Party leader Kaja Kallas ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-18.
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[Fighting] Tito Ortiz to fight in 2019 ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-18.
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[Fighting] UFC 245 to occur in 2019 ( 63% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-17.
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[The amount of money raised by 80,000 Hours by February 1, 2017, not including funding from the Open Philanthropy Project, will be at least] $1,250,000 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2019-12-15.
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[The amount of money raised by 80,000 Hours by February 1, 2017, not including funding from the Open Philanthropy Project, will be at least] $750,000 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2019-02-01; judged right by wizzwizz4 on 2019-12-15.