Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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“Sometime in the next five years, there will be a terroristic attack in or near Las Vegas.” -David Henderson ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-14; known on 2016-11-14; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-14.
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Republicans win between 231 and 240 house seats in 2016 ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by elephantower on 2016-08-02; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-11-13.
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By 2016, Legislation will have been introduced (not necessarily passed) banning home solar generation on grounds of safety. ( 28% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ARFisk on 2011-11-12; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by ARFisk on 2016-11-13.
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I manage to submit a National Security Consultation submission ( 89% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-02; known on 2016-12-02; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-13.
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In the 2016 election, a majority of Hispanic voters (as determined by exit polls) will vote for the Republican candidate. ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-26; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-12.
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Conditional on Rand Paul not winning the Republican nomination for President, the eventual Democratic nominee will win the popular vote by at least 2%.. ( 44% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-29; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-12.
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Wow. ( 100% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-11-10; known on 2016-11-09; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2016-11-12.
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Test 4 – Does this 30% probability show up in 70%? ( 30% confidence )
Created by savolver on 2016-11-12; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by savolver on 2016-11-12.
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Test 4 – Does this 30% probability show up in 70%? ( 30% confidence )
Created by savolver on 2016-11-12; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by savolver on 2016-11-12.
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Test 3. ( 90% confidence )
Created by savolver on 2016-11-12; known on 2016-11-12; judged right by savolver on 2016-11-12.
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Test 2. ( 80% confidence )
Created by savolver on 2016-11-12; known on 2016-11-12; judged right by savolver on 2016-11-12.
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Test 2. ( 80% confidence )
Created by savolver on 2016-11-12; known on 2016-11-12; judged right by savolver on 2016-11-12.
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Test 2. ( 80% confidence )
Created by savolver on 2016-11-12; known on 2016-11-12; judged right by savolver on 2016-11-12.
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Fiction,Webcomics, Erfworld – Caesar agrees to at least not interfere in an attempt to turn Parson, within pages 210 or 211. ( 60% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2016-11-08; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2016-11-12.
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Conditional on trying, I will successfully bench 200 pounds for one rep. ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-11-07; known on 2016-12-07; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2016-11-10.
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Dilma Rousseff will be president of Brazil until 2018 ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by daniel74f on 2016-03-20; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by jesseh on 2016-11-10.
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Democrats win the IN senate seat ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-11-10.
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Jim Justice will win the WV governor race in 2016 ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by elephantower on 2016-11-10.
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Mia Love will be re-elected to the House of Representatives from Utah's 4th district ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by elephantower on 2016-11-10.
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Donald Trump to win the US Presidential election with at least 302 electoral votes. ( 22% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-06-05; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by trishume on 2016-11-10.
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The Republican Party wins AZ in the 2016 presidential election ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-08-03; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by elephantower on 2016-11-10.
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The Republican Party wins AZ in the 2016 presidential election ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-08-03; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by elephantower on 2016-11-10.
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Pat McCrory will be re-elected governor ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by predictit on 2016-08-11; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-11-10.
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All three of my Amazon orders arrive before 8pm tomorrow. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2016-11-09; known on 2016-11-10; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2016-11-10.
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I will get a response from R before 2016-11-10 ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-03; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-10.
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Jim Webb to be the next elected President of the US. ( 0% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-11; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Donald Trump will receive at least 43% of the popular vote in the 2016 US Presidential election. ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by igorhorst on 2016-10-22; known on 2016-12-22; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Rajoy will be Spain's next prime minister ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Democratic Party will carry Minnesota in 2016 ( 80% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2016-12-16; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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HRC wins at least one of the following: AZ, GA, MO, MT, SC. ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-08-28; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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A democrat wins New York in the 2016 general presidential election. ( 91% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-18; known on 2016-12-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Barack Obama to attempt to run for a third term as President (either through Constitutional amendment or other method). ( 0% confidence; 41 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-24; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Clinton chooses Michael B. Coleman as running mate. ( 23% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-04-05; known on 2016-11-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Voter turnout for the US Presidential election to be less than 49% of registered voters. ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-28; known on 2016-11-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Both the Democrats and the Republicans will each have at least 160 seats in the 115th House of Representatives ( 85% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-02; known on 2016-11-12; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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O processo de impeachment será concluído com o afastamento da presidente DR. ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2016-05-18; known on 2016-11-13; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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2017 US Congress HOUSE to be controlled by republicans. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-23; known on 2016-11-13; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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2017 US Congress SENATE to be controlled by democrats. ( 44% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-23; known on 2016-11-13; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Hillary Clinton to be the next US President, and win popular vote by at least 4.5% ( 27% confidence; 17 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-05; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Missouri will be a swing state in 2016 (within 1% of the vote margin of the median Electoral College vote). ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-10-31; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Democrat to win popular vote in 2016 with at least 57% of the popular vote. ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-20; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Conditional on Hillary Clinton winning the Democratic nomination, she will get at least 54% of the popular vote. ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-22; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Democrats to control US Senate after 2016 election. ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-03; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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The Democratic candidate takes North Carolina in 2016. ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-09; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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The Libertarian Party presidential candidate will get less than 2% of the national popular vote in November. ( 41% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2016-04-09; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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In the 2016 US presidential election, dealing with the NSA etc. will not be ignored and will be a serious debate issue, on par with the economy or abortion. ( 39% confidence; 12 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-09-25; known on 2016-11-02; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-11-09.
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McCain wins re-election in 2016 ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by kuudes on 2016-11-09.
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Given that they complete a least 48 attempted replications, less than 5% of the replications the reproducibility project* is attempting will successfully replicate at the p<.05 level. http://openscienceframework.org/project/shvrbV8uSkHewsfD4/wiki/index ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by beo_shaffer on 2012-04-19; known on 2022-10-10; judged wrong by CarlShulman on 2016-11-09.
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The US 2016 Presidential election will occur on its currently scheduled Tuesday date. ( 96% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2016-11-12; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
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Hillary Clinton elected AND nuclear war involving the US during her reign ( 2% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.