Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 33% | 0% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
Displaying all predictions made by Filipe. Filter by:
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I will win a Nobel Prize in literature in 40 years. ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-08; known on 2052-09-08.
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The “Anonymous Narratives by LW Women” thread will receive >500 comments ( 63% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Konkvistador on 2012-09-09; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by Athrelon on 2012-12-30.
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The “Anonymous Narratives by LW Women” thread will receive >100 comments ( 89% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Athrelon on 2012-09-09; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by beo_shaffer on 2012-09-12.
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In the next 40 years, at least 1 Nobel Prize Literature will go to someone with a LessWrong account. ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-08; known on 2052-09-08.
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Kate Evans (@aristosophy) will be revealed to be the blogger Sister Y, from The View from Hell ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Filipe on 2012-09-07; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Filipe on 2012-09-09.
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The LW user account “Grognor” will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years. ( 45% confidence; 13 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-08-27; known on 2022-08-28; judged wrong by muflax on 2022-08-28.
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Eliezer will start posting his Open FAI problems sequence to LessWrong.com in September 2012. ( 47% confidence; 16 wagers )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2012-10-01; judged wrong by lukeprog on 2012-10-01.
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Scott Siskind will stil be an atheist by 2014. ( 96% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Kaj_Sotala on 2012-08-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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Mitt Romney will change his position to the GOP platform of banning all abortion even in the case of incest and rape. ( 14% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-08-22; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-08.
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“Neither major U. S. political party will hold conventions or indeed primaries to select their 2012 Presidential nominees.” ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2012-09-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-08.