Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 62% | 76% | 80% | 94% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 300 | 260 | 195 | 249 | 347 | 149 | 1500 |
Displaying all predictions made by Jayson Virissimo. Filter by:
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Cain Velasquez will defeat Junior Dos Santos in their fight on November, 12th. ( 62% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2011-11-12; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-13.
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I will like the second season of Top Shot more than the first. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-15.
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Luke Muehlhauser will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 32% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-11-12.
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Raymond Kurzweil will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-01-01.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Robin Hanson will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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In 2020, every single one of the 5 tallest buildings in the world will be located in China, Hong Kong, or Taiwan. ( 27% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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The prediction market intrade will still be open for business in 2020. ( 51% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2017-08-19.
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I will complete every exercise in the first 10 chapters of Introduction to Java Programming by Y. Daniel Liang before the end of March, 30th, 2012. ( 65% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2012-03-31; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-05.
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“Rupert Murdoch to announce departure as chairman of News Corporation before 2012” -ipredict ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.
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I will obtain Portuguese citizenship before 2015. ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-01-01.
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The unemployment rate in Singapore will not exceed 5% in 2012. ( 73% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.
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Stewart Alexis Alexander, of the Socialist Party USA, will receive less than 1% of the popular vote in the 2012 presidential election. ( 91% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-08.
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If Ron Paul runs as a third party candidate in the 2012 presidential election, then he will receive greater than 10% of the popular vote. ( 41% confidence; 10 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by ChristianKl on 2012-11-29.
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The weekly newspaper The Economist will be in continuous publication until at least 2043. ( 46% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2043-01-01.
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I will do at least 70 Anki reps/day on average this month. ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-11-10; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-01.
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'Will Palin, Trump, Bloomberg, Paul or Bachmann run as an Independent or 3rd party candidate?' —Intrade ( 23% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-09; known on 2012-11-02; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-10-31.
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“Silvio Berlusconi to announce his resignation before midnight ET 30 Nov 2011” —Intrade ( 67% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12.
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An official 2.0 release of the Ruby language will be available on or before February 24, 2013. ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-11-07; known on 2013-02-24; judged right by muflax on 2013-02-24.
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As of 01-01-2013, according to the CIA World Factbook, none of the top 5 GDP per capita (PPP) countries will contain the word “democracy” or “democratic” in their government type variable. ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-01-01.
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I will obtain a PS3 on or before 6/8/2012. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-06; known on 2012-06-08; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-08.
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I will schedule an appointment to visit a doctor by the end of this week. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-06; known on 2011-11-12; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-14.
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If I play Deus Ex 3 in 2012, then I will rate it higher than Deus Ex 2. ( 82% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.
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“NZ Government to announce before 2012 it will waive visitor visa requirement for China passport holders” -ipredict ( 0% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-06.
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“NZ Government to announce before 2012 it will waive visitor visa requirement for India passport holders” -ipredict ( 2% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-29.
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“The Google Lunar X Prize to be won on/before 31 Dec 2012.” -intrade ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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“Global temperatures in 2012 to be highest recorded.” -ipredict ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.
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Either Mitt Romney or Barack Obama will win the 2012 Presidential election. ( 91% confidence; 29 wagers )
Created by HonoreDB on 2011-11-04; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.
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Greece will quit euro ( 40% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sucrenoir on 2011-11-04; known on 2011-11-19; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-19.
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'I predict that the chance that a major episode of violence will break out in the next decade—a conflict with 100,000 deaths in a year, or a million deaths overall—is 9.7 percent' —Steven Pinker ( 51% confidence; 12 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-03; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-01-01.
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Obama gets reelected and during that time Hillary Clinton brokers the middle east peace deal between Israel and Palestine for the two state solution. This secures her presidency in 2016. ( 9% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by lionflower on 2011-11-02; known on 2014-09-09; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2014-09-09.
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President Barak Obama will be re-elected, the Democrats will retain the Senate, and retake the House of Representatives. This will not prevent a great deal of obstructionism to anything he wants to get passed, particularly in the Senate. ( 30% confidence; 18 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by MuscleCBT on 2011-11-02; known on 2012-11-11; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.
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The “technological singularity” will be a major paradigm shift for humanity. ( 85% confidence; 10 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by steve1interstock on 2011-11-02; known on 2111-11-02; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-05.
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My Introduction to Java deck will be the most downloaded Anki deck containing the word “Java” on 03-01-2012. ( 66% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-02; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-03-03.
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LW: average IQ in survey will be at or above the 98th percentile and thus eligible for Mensa membership. ( 66% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Robert Kosten on 2011-11-01; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-04.
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A complete functional simulation of the C. elegans nervous system will exist on 2014-06-08; 76% —David Dalrymple ( 24% confidence; 9 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-31; known on 2014-06-08; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-06-08.
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I will complete Project Euler Problem #2 within the next 14 days. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-31; known on 2011-11-14; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-14.
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I will play through the original Deus Ex again before 2013. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-31; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.
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I will have completed my Introduction to Java Anki Deck and will have uploaded it by the end of this week. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-31; known on 2011-11-05; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-01.
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I will play through the original Deus Ex again before 2013 ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-31; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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There will be a continual presence on Mars of at least one person or probe either on the surface or in orbit until at least 2045 ( 50% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-31; known on 2045-01-01.
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The average of this bet will be 90% to 100% until friday. ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Metus on 2011-10-28; known on 2011-11-05; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-05.
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I will read “Thinking, Fast and Slow” by Daniel Kahneman within the next 4 weeks. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-28; known on 2011-11-25; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-27.
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I will average at least one prediction per week on PredictionBook for the next year. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-28; known on 2012-10-28; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-17.
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“Image recorded by NASA Curiosity on Mars surface to be published in 2012” -ipredict ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-27; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-21.
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“Lamborghini to announce, before 2013, commercial production of a four door vehicle” -ipredict ( 82% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-27; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.
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I will write a blog post on Khan Academy's new proficiency model that I just shipped by the end of this weekend. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by divad12 on 2011-10-27; known on 2011-10-31; judged wrong by divad12 on 2011-11-01.
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Non-Japanese customers will be allowed to buy e-books in the Japanese Kindle store. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-10-25.
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Erik and I will watch the original version of The Thing today. ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-26; known on 2011-10-27; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-27.
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“Focus Fusion process to generate net power before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2014” -intrade ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-26; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Serge on 2015-03-30.
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“iPad 3 to be formally announced in January 2012” -ipredict ( 9% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-26; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by faws on 2012-02-01.
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“Yingluck Shinawatra to depart as Prime Minister of Thailand before 1 January 2012” -ipredict ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.
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“Normal service on the Maui Pipeline to resume on 28 October 2011” -ipredict ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-26; known on 2011-10-29; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-31.
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By October 24, 2012 brazil84 will update his estimate that Amanda Knox was guilty to below 50% and declare that he has so updated on Less Wrong. ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-25; known on 2012-10-24; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-10-24.
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In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug ( 9% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Konkvistador on 2011-10-24; known on 2039-01-01.
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Before 2012, the United States will lose its triple-A credit rating from Moody's or Fitch (or both) ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-23; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.
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Occupy Wall Street (NYC) will continue at least 30 more days. ( 79% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by torekp on 2011-10-23; known on 2011-11-23; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-23.
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I will be using PredictionBook for personal productivity goals at least weekly for a month. ( 61% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by divad12 on 2011-10-23; known on 2011-11-23; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-11-24.
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The TV show “Grimm” will be canceled in it's first season. ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sdenheyer on 2011-10-22; known on 2012-08-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-07.
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The show “Pan Am” will not be canceled during it's first season. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sdenheyer on 2011-10-22; known on 2012-08-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-05.
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Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-21; known on 2070-01-01.
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My average weight (measured once everyday) for this week will be at least one pound greater than my average weight for next week. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-21; known on 2011-10-29; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-29.
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Someone will add at least 400 Austrian macroeconomic predictions to predictionbook. ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by siodine on 2011-10-20; known on 2011-10-20; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-21.
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I will obtain at least one Java certification before the end of June, 30th, 2012. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-20; known on 2012-06-30; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03.
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At any point before 2100, 5 billion humans (or emulated humans) are alive and physically within 3000 km of each other. ( 50% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-19; known on 2100-01-01.
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The discussion post http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/842/the_sciencearchist_manifesto/'s comment section will contain a flame war started by someone other than myself by the end of this Friday ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by beo_shaffer on 2011-10-19; known on 2011-10-21; judged wrong by beo_shaffer on 2011-10-27.
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I will complete Project Euler Problem #1 in the next 7 days. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-19; known on 2011-10-26; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-20.
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“Ron Paul to dropout of the 2012 Presidential race before midnight ET 05 Feb 2012” -Intrade ( 6% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-19; known on 2012-02-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-06.
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No human fatalities will result from the ROSAT reentry. ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-19; known on 2011-11-30; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-23.
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I will “flatline”, i.e. my penis will temporary not respond to sexual stimuli due to prolonged abstinence. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Arkanj3l on 2011-10-18; known on 2011-10-23; judged wrong by Arkanj3l on 2011-10-20.
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The U.S. economy will not be back to 6% or less unemployment until 2018. ( 60% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2011-10-18; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2015-03-07.
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“The Prime Minister of New Zealand as a result of the 2011 New Zealand General Election was an electorate candidate for the National Party in that election and/or appears on that party's list.” -ipredict ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-17; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by faws on 2012-02-01.
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Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025 ( 29% confidence; 13 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-17; known on 2025-01-01.
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Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2019 ( 15% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-17; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2019-01-01.
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I will go to the gym tomorrow ( 93% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Isaac on 2011-10-17; known on 2011-10-18; judged wrong by Isaac on 2011-10-18.
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Chrome will ship with the initial release of Android “Ice Cream Sandwich” ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-12; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-01.
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I will feel sick again when I donate blood today. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-12; known on 2011-10-13; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-13.
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The initial release of Windows Server 8 (or whatever it's renamed to) will ship with a filesystem that writes and verifies checksums for data integrity purposes ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 117 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-12; known on 2012-12-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-12-03.
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The PredictionBook Wikipedia article will be deleted within 2 years. ( 91% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-11; known on 2013-10-11; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-12.
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The PredictionBook Wikipedia article will be deleted within 1 year. ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-11; known on 2012-10-11; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-12.
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Average global temperature will be higher for 2012 than 2011. ( 57% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by simplicio on 2013-03-13.
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Average global temperature will be higher for 2011 than 2010. ( 32% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-14.
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“S&P will announce before 1 July 2013 a downgrade of its France sovereign rating.” ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11; known on 2013-07-01; judged right by eagleclaw6 on 2013-11-20.
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“Kevin Rudd will depart as Australian Minister of Foreign Affairs before 1 July 2012.” ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2012-06-09.
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The Prediction Book Wikipedia page will be deleted within a month. ( 60% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-11; known on 2011-11-11; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-10-12.
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The Prediction Book Wikipedia page will be tagged for deletion or deleted within 2 weeks. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-11; known on 2011-10-26; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-12.
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A PredictionBook Wikipedia page will be created within the next 30 minutes. ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11; known on 2011-10-11; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11.
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The St Louis Cardinals will win the World Series ( 47% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Codyz on 2011-10-11; known on 2011-10-31; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-29.
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The GDP per capita (PPP) of Hong Kong (judged by the IMF) will exceed that of the USA before 2013. ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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The world will exist on 2012-12-22 (day after the widely hyped end) ( 99% confidence; 43 wagers; 21 comments )
Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-22; judged right by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
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In the Ontario (Canada) legislature, the Liberal minority will form the government, and as of 2012-12-21, they will still have the confidence of the House. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-21; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-27.
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Consensus will be that Koomey's Law no longer applies in 25 years. ( 56% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-10; known on 2036-10-10.
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Satoshi Nakamoto is just Michael Clear and this is known before 2060 ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-10; known on 2060-01-01.
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Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060 ( 13% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-10; known on 2060-01-01.
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No one will join this prediction until friday. ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Metus on 2011-10-10; known on 2011-10-14; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11.
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Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin will be inaugurated as President of Russia in 2012. ( 84% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by Grrrr on 2012-12-31.
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Third-party candidates will take at least 15% of the popular votes in the 2012 US presidential election. ( 26% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2011-10-09; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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By november 8th, I will have submitted a (new) graduate school application. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2011-10-09; known on 2011-11-08; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2011-11-05.
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Apple smartphones will have under 30% US market share at the end of 2012 ( 70% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2011-10-09; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.