Unjudged Predictions
-
80k will give personal 1:1 advice to Prownie ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Leo on 2023-08-18; known 14 days ago.
-
I get in to med school ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by squackledee on 2023-02-16; known 16 days ago.
-
Knowledge organisation (as an extension/generalisation of services such as FullContact, Evernote) will become an important service in the next 5 years ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by raehik on 2018-10-13; known 18 days ago.
-
I will be in a romantic relationship with a woman whom I love and who loves me at some point between now and my 30th birthday. ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-04-10; known 21 days ago.
-
Still no first kiss before my 30th birthday. ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-04-10; known 21 days ago.
-
Elections will be held in October 2023 in Pakistan? ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Najoomi on 2023-05-14; known 23 days ago.
-
The 'Attack on Titan' anime has an “AOE”, i.e. an ending which diverges significantly from the manga ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-03-12; known 24 days ago.
-
Cr1TiKaL says 'Attack on Titan' has a bad ending ( 23% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-03-12; known 24 days ago.
-
01490734 —> curiga paraganglioma dd myxoid ependymoma ( 70% confidence )
Created by dimasrizaputra@yahoo.co.id on 2023-09-04; known 27 days ago.
-
Massa psoas sign? Hasil PA ( 50% confidence )
Created by dimasrizaputra@yahoo.co.id on 2023-09-04; known 27 days ago.
-
Fewer people globally will die of deseases ( 98% confidence )
Created by Magda on 2023-09-28; known on 2023-09-28.
-
65616211 – subependymoom ( 50% confidence )
Created by Mathieu_VDM on 2023-07-25; known on 2023-09-25.
-
“I make the falsifiable prediction that during Pope Francis's tenure the Catholic Church will shrink, its proportional membership will diminish and its contributions per member will drop.” — EY (on Facebook) ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-09-20; known on 2023-09-20.
-
Amazon superará a Cencosud en Sudamérica dentro de 5 años. ( 90% confidence )
Created by jhairguz.t@gmail.com on 2018-09-03; known on 2023-09-03.
-
In mid-2023, Brazil will have had mild GDP growth, but Bolsonarist bubbles will claim that these results are fake and Brazil is in a recession ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by DanCoimbra on 2022-11-21; known on 2023-09-01.
-
I will become Masters at SC2 by end of Summer, 2023 ( 60% confidence )
Created by alexanderpasch on 2023-03-06; known on 2023-09-01.
-
Case-Shiller National (CSUSHPINSA) will not increase above 303.757 until 30-yr fixed (MORTGAGE30US) is below 6.5% for the prior month, through June 2023. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2022-10-28; known on 2023-09-01.
-
Khe Hy's friend will not write 45 minutes 4x a week for 3 months. ( 90% confidence )
Created by kadavy on 2023-06-01; known on 2023-09-01.
-
I will get into EAGxMelbourne 2023 ( 65% confidence )
Created by MissReaper on 2023-07-22; known on 2023-08-02.
-
I will continue to think that AI alignment (including governance, multiagent, field building etc) is the most important thing for me to work on July 27th 2023. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by peterbarnett on 2022-07-28; known on 2023-07-27.
-
Will my brother call me/want to talk with me in the next two weeks? ( 20% confidence )
Created by MissReaper on 2023-07-08; known on 2023-07-22.
-
Páncreas adenocarcinoma 5885272 ( 70% confidence )
Created by Mrosito on 2023-06-27; known on 2023-07-15.
-
Metástasis hemorragicas 7061675 ( 80% confidence )
Created by Mrosito on 2023-06-26; known on 2023-07-05.
-
Adept AI's demo is way better than it can actually do (https://twitter.com/AdeptAILabs/status/1590396065072951296) ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by cmessinger on 2022-11-10; known on 2023-07-02.
-
The new host of “The Daily Show” will be Hasan Minhaj ( 60% confidence )
Created by greene on 2023-03-29; known on 2023-07-01.
-
The federal reserve will continue raising interest rates through June 2023. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ebloch on 2022-11-09; known on 2023-07-01.
-
Ectasia ductal ( 60% confidence )
Created by Mrosito on 2023-06-26; known on 2023-06-29.
-
80000 Key ideas translated and published online in Russian by ( 60% confidence )
Created by Mckiev on 2022-06-24; known on 2023-06-24.
-
Epi Cortes cortes antonia 2549808-magdalena Dejca ( 90% confidence )
Created by Mon23 on 2023-06-15; known on 2023-06-20.
-
Bitcoin will have increased in value relative to the British pound by this time next year. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-06-18; known on 2023-06-18.
-
Before 2023, Charlie Stross will write and publish a novel that features a Roko's Basilisk-like plot device ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by halfwit on 2013-06-14; known on 2023-06-14.
-
The large coefficient results are real ( 75% confidence )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-05-10; known on 2023-06-06.
-
Glucose-powered electronics will go for FDA approval in 2023 ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by icrbow on 2017-08-03; known on 2023-06-01.
-
Trudeau government implements a new NEP without being substantially different from the old one(ie doesn't subsidize alberta for loss) ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-24; known on 2023-06-01.
-
By June 1, Donetsk and Lughansk under complete Russian control, and Ukraine to have officially dropped any plans of joining NATO or EU, and all sanctions on Russia lifted. ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-09-01; known on 2023-06-01.
-
Browsers will replace Javascript with a VM as an standard way to run code. ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by wslh on 2013-05-28; known on 2023-05-28.
-
Garrett's activation additions work for a residual network trained on mnist. ( 85% confidence )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-05-22; known on 2023-05-22; judged unknown by TurnTrout on 2023-05-23.
-
bankendominoes starts again in the US OR massive bail-in in US occurs ( 57% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-07; known on 2023-05-22.
-
Eliza and Georgia Gerber kiss before semester ends ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ethanmg01 on 2023-02-24; known on 2023-05-13.
-
I will receive an economics PhD within the next 10 years ( 20% confidence )
Created by Isaac on 2013-05-09; known on 2023-05-09.
-
Adding " wedding" to the middle of ~20-token prompts, will, on average, increase wedding-related wordcount relative to adding to the beginning or end. ( 60% confidence )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-05-01; known on 2023-05-02.
-
The “EM drive” within 8 years not drive anything nor will it provide any meaningful peer-reviewed contribution to modern physics beyond “still another insight in how not to fuck up an experimental setup and misinterpret data” ( 91% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-02; known on 2023-05-02.
-
From 2 May 2019, Apple Inc. (Share price 2 May: $209.15) will yield more than Tesla share price (Share price 2 May: $244.10) in 4 years on a percentage basis. ( 0% confidence )
Created by separo on 2019-05-19; known on 2023-05-02.
-
Over the next five years, the Boston Celtics will win more regular season games than the Philadelphia 76ers. ( 44% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davatk on 2018-05-06; known on 2023-05-01.
-
example prediction test ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by speeze on 2023-04-25; known on 2023-04-25.
-
Created by amadeuscarnegie@yahoo.co.uk on 2023-02-23; known on 2023-04-25.
-
mccabe will go to jail or be found dead ( 80% confidence )
Created by DanMotorcycleGuy on 2018-04-24; known on 2023-04-24.
-
During the election of 2024 for President, both Independents and Republicans (the Republicans had been in decline) will put up vigorous campaigns against the Democrat. ( 85% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Turtleread on 2012-11-05; known on 2023-04-21.
-
Will I pass all my exams (Micro, Macro, Maths, Statistics, Business) for this semester (1st semester of my bachelor). ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by aut on 2022-12-19; known on 2023-04-19.
-
I will file my 2023 tax return on time ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by panashe on 2023-01-18; known on 2023-04-19.