Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 64% | 63% | 72% | 81% | 90% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 72 | 204 | 299 | 365 | 194 | 14 | 1148 |
Displaying all predictions made by jbeshir. Filter by:
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The Greek military or goverment will not sign any document of surrender, pay reparations or lose any territory as a result of military action within the next two decades. ( 86% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-07-12; known on 2035-01-01.
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Syriza will remain in power through 2020 ( 33% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-07-12; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Greece will return to the Drachma and abandon the Euro currency ( 40% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2015-07-05; known on 2016-07-05; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-05.
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Arab Spring 2: The Springening. “Men will never be free until the last king is strangled with the entrails of the last priest” Denis Diderot (1713-1784) The final days of the last monarchies on earth. All the Arab monarchs will be violently overthr ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-22; known on 2020-05-27; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-05-28.
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HPMoR: Mr White is Lucius Malfoy, conditional on the identity of Mr White or Lucius Malfoy at the meeting being confirmed, or Lucius not being present at the meeting being confirmed. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2015-03-03; known on 2015-03-15; judged right by Chri on 2015-03-12.
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ST Enterprise: In S3.09, the horse they take on loan at the start of the episode dies. ( 40% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-05-04; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2015-03-05.
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HPMoR: By end of story, it will be revealed that the events at the end of Chapter 113 were just a setup for Harry to be seen defeating Voldemort. ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2015-03-01; known on 2015-03-15; judged wrong by Unknowns on 2015-03-14.
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HPMoR: Harry dies at some point before the end of the story (including if said death is temporary). ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2015-02-28; known on 2015-03-15; judged wrong by Unknowns on 2015-03-14.
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HPMoR: In chapter 113, there is a fight between Voldemort and HJPEV in which Voldemort deliberately fights less well than they are capable of. ( 20% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2015-02-28; known on 2015-03-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2015-02-28.
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In 2015 Go will become a supported development language for Android ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Alex Willmer on 2015-02-25; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Alex Willmer on 2016-01-02.
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HPMoR: In chapter 111, Voldemort is lying about the loss of the Horcrux network, conditional on events not being inside a realm created by the mirror. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2015-02-25; known on 2015-03-14; judged right by jbeshir on 2015-03-22.
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HPMoR: In chapter 111, the events depicted are happening inside a realm created by the mirror. ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2015-02-25; known on 2015-03-14; judged wrong by Unknowns on 2015-03-14.
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At least 25% of American personal car travel will be via self-driving cars by February 24, 2020. ( 4% confidence; 17 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-24; known on 2020-02-24; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-02-24.
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HJPEV has access to Voldemort's Horcrux network, due to being sufficiently Tom Riddle. ( 56% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by linkhyrule5 on 2015-02-21; known on 2015-03-07; judged wrong by tedks on 2015-03-03.
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HPMoR: In the final arc (Chapter 104 – conclusion) It will be revealed that HPJEV was under some magical influence that prevented him from perceiving the link between Voldemort and Quirrel. ( 34% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Faceh on 2015-02-16; known on 2015-03-14; judged wrong by Unknowns on 2015-03-14.
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HPMoR: In the final arc (Chapter 104 – conclusion) there will be a philosophical discussion/debate of the nature of self, identity, and/or continuity of consciousness. This discussion will last LONGER than a single paragraph. ( 58% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Faceh on 2015-02-16; known on 2015-03-15; judged wrong by Unknowns on 2015-03-14.
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I will lose at least 18lbs in the six months after starting the Shangri-La Diet, and maintain the diet for that duration, defined as taking at least 100kcal of near-tasteless calories on at least an average of four days each week. ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2014-06-14; known on 2014-12-14; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2015-02-28.
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I will still be consuming a near-tasteless source of calories at least once every three days six months after starting trying the Shangri-La Diet. ( 6% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2014-06-14; known on 2014-12-14; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2015-02-28.
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I will lose at least three pounds in the first three weeks of attempting the Shangri-La Diet. ( 20% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2014-06-14; known on 2014-07-07; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2014-07-15.
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SR: The FBI/government will gain control in any way of DPR's ~฿600,000 within 1 year. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-04; known on 2014-10-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-10-05.
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http://www.rememberthe13th.com/ NASA has made a historic discovery that will shake the entire planet. This announcement will be released to the media on November 13th, 2013. It will be a day to remember and One for the history books. Nothing world sha ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mimosomal on 2013-10-04; known on 2013-11-13; judged wrong by procran on 2013-11-13.
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Jeff Bezos will use his influence as owner of the Washington Post to run for Senate by 2020 ( 11% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by workbean on 2013-08-06; known on 2020-01-16; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-17.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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A Libertarian Party candidate will receive more of the popular vote in the 2016 presidential election than the Republican candidate. ( 6% confidence; 23 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-02; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Either Mitt Romney or Barack Obama will win the 2012 Presidential election. ( 91% confidence; 29 wagers )
Created by HonoreDB on 2011-11-04; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.
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President Barak Obama will be re-elected, the Democrats will retain the Senate, and retake the House of Representatives. This will not prevent a great deal of obstructionism to anything he wants to get passed, particularly in the Senate. ( 30% confidence; 18 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by MuscleCBT on 2011-11-02; known on 2012-11-11; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.
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Nintendo officially offers bluetooth controllers with game-pack slot attachment devices for cell phones ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jach on 2011-08-18; known on 2013-10-16; judged wrong by Jach on 2013-10-16.
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Barack Obama will get reelected in two years (not individual opinion) ( 66% confidence; 17 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by tjross on 2010-03-23; known on 2012-11-06; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.