Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 53% | 64% | 73% | 80% | 93% | 94% | |
Sample Size | 136 | 202 | 169 | 255 | 784 | 225 | 1771 |
Displaying all predictions made by Baeboo. Filter by:
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San Francisco will extend the shelter-in-place order beyond May 3rd ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2020-04-01; known on 2020-05-04; judged right by jacobgreenleaf on 2020-05-02.
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There will be at least 160.000 confirmed cases of Coronavirus in China on July 1, 2020. ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-03-30; known on 2020-07-04; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-07-04.
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S&P 500 index dips below 2000 in year of 2020 ( 32% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-03-27; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-12-31.
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India – Coranavirus positive cases at 10000 by 1st April, 2020 ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by atharva117 on 2020-03-25; known on 2020-04-01; judged wrong by nortriptyline2 on 2020-04-03.
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San Francisco will extend the shelter-in-place order beyond April 7th ( 96% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2020-03-23; known on 2020-04-08; judged right by jacobgreenleaf on 2020-04-03.
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Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020 ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-03-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020 ( 4% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sjy on 2020-03-22; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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World – Opening of Olympic Games delayed beyond end of July. ( 92% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-21; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by wizzwizz4 on 2020-04-02.
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Coronavirus epidemic in US peaks before June 2020 ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by erstwhile on 2020-03-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-07.
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Triplebyte will no longer exist as a company on August 20 2021, and if sold will have sold for less than $48.1M. ( 23% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by enolan on 2020-03-21; known on 2021-08-20; judged wrong by enolan on 2021-08-21.
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More than 1000 Corona deaths in the Netherlands in March ( 36% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Stucwerk on 2020-03-20; known on 2020-04-01; judged right by Stucwerk on 2020-03-31.
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< 35M coronavirus deaths ( 86% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by kjaques on 2020-03-19; known on 2020-07-31; judged right by kjaques on 2020-07-31.
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<2M coronavirus deaths. ( 25% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by kjaques on 2020-03-19; known on 2020-07-31; judged right by kjaques on 2020-07-31.
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Italy has less than 100.000 COVID-19 cases by April ( 41% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2020-03-14; known on 2020-04-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-04-03.
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World – Will one or more cases of COVID-19 be described as plausible or likely to have occurred in North Korea in the BBC by end of month March. ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-14; known on 2020-04-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-04-01.
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Effective Altruism – EA Global 2020 in SF is rescheduled to start on a date other than the 20th of March 2020 or cancelled. ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-29; known on 2020-03-20; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-03-14.
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Health – Before the end of 2024 at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated from a laboratory. ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-28; known on 2025-01-01.
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The 2020 Olympics will not be cancelled ( 53% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by gurgus on 2020-02-26; known on 2020-07-24; judged right by gurgus on 2021-07-19.
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Health, UK – News reports of a confirmed case of 2019-nCoV in UK by deadline. ( 74% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-23; known on 2020-02-28; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-01-31.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 100,000 ( 37% confidence; 37 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-04-10.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 50,000 ( 35% confidence; 30 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by nortriptyline2 on 2020-04-03.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 100 million ( 0% confidence; 29 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 50 million ( 1% confidence; 34 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 10 million ( 8% confidence; 36 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 5 million ( 12% confidence; 34 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 1 million ( 40% confidence; 45 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-09.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 500,000 ( 44% confidence; 46 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-29.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 10,000 ( 56% confidence; 45 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-03-20.
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There will be more than 8000 human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be reported before 2021 ( 71% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-30.
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Mike Bloomberg is the US 2020 Democratic Party nominee ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2020-07-15; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-07-16.
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Amy Klobuchar is the US 2020 Democratic nominee ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2020-07-15; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-07-16.
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A third-party candidate gets more than 5% of the vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election ( 8% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-14; known on 2020-11-07; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-11-07.
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In 2030, global greenhouse gas emissions have been at most 50% of those in 2018. ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03; known on 2031-01-01.
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Javascript is still the dominant programming language in browsers by 2030 ( 78% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-12-31.
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[The Economist predicts:] Bitcoin price ends year below $7,500 ( 40% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Apple will release a Macbook or Macbook Pro that uses a CPU designed by someone other than Intel or AMD. ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by quanticle on 2019-12-29; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-10.
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Princesses Victoria of Sweden, Elisabeth of Belgium, Catharina-Amalia of the Netherlands, Ingrid Alexandra of Norway and Leonor of Spain all reign at the same time. ( 22% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-10-26; known on 2101-01-02.
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Donald Trump will NOT be re-elected ( 55% confidence; 26 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by tcsmithbiz@yahoo.com on 2019-12-23; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2020-11-07.
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Pete Buttigieg will win the Democratic Nomination ( 14% confidence; 18 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by tcsmithbiz@yahoo.com on 2019-12-23; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-09-06.
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Pete Buttigieg will win the democratic primary ( 17% confidence; 18 wagers )
Created by skuthus on 2019-11-27; known on 2020-06-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-17.
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Bitcoin's price will be above $10,000 on May 1, 2020 (at midnight). ( 27% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by krazemon on 2019-10-20; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2020-05-01.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] ASX 200 (now 6607) ( 45% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] Hang Seng (now 26307) ( 52% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] KOSPI (now 2049) ( 51% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged right by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] OMX Tallinn (now 1236) ( 52% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] SSI Shanghai (now 2973) ( 46% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged right by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] FTSE 100 (now 7187) ( 43% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-03.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] CAC 40 (now 5628) ( 48% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] NIKKEI 225 (now 21801) ( 54% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-03.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] NSE-All Share Nigeria (now 26584) ( 46% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] DJIA (now 26756) ( 48% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Donald Trump to remain president of the US, conditional on Dow Jones being] over 30,000 ( 95% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-10-01.
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[Donald Trump to remain president of the US, conditional on Dow Jones being] between 20,000 and 26,000 ( 90% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-10-01.
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[Donald Trump to remain president of the US, conditional on Dow Jones being] under 20,000 ( 83% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-10-01.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] 20 or more ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 19 ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 18 ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 17 ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-08.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 16 ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-08.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 15 ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-07.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 14 ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-07.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 13 ( 11% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-06.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 12 ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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Reddit is blocked in the PRC as of 2020-10-29 ( 89% confidence; 17 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-10-29; judged right by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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Someone will succeed at the IMO grand challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io) in the next 5 years. ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by krazemon on 2019-09-15; known on 2024-09-15.
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The world gross product of 2099 will not be less than the world gross product of 2020. ( 89% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-08-29; known on 2100-01-01.
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The average age of death for humans in 2099 is not going to be lower than 70 years. ( 78% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-08-29; known on 2100-01-01.
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I am not going to die as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change. ( 99% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-08-29; known on 3000-01-01.
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Humanity is not going to go extinct before 2200 because of anthropogenic climate change. ( 97% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-08-29; known on 2200-01-01.
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At least one war breaks out between countries due to (perceived) inaction / exacerbation of climate change before 2030 ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by predoindk on 2019-08-25; known on 2030-12-31.
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There'll be a global average “dip” in the rate of population increase directly attributable to people voluntarily forgoing having kids due to climate change fears ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by predoindk on 2019-08-23; known on 2020-08-16; judged wrong by jamesrom on 2020-08-17.
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Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022 ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-08-12; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-01-01.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99 ( 13% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-08-08; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-08.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99 ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-08-08; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-08.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99 ( 27% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-08-08; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-08.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99 ( 28% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-08-08; judged right by Cato on 2019-08-08.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-08-08; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-08.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99 ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-08-08; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-08.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] under $40 ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-08-08; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-08.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] higher than $100 ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-08-08; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-08.
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[Commodities] Brent > WTI for all of 2019 through July EOM ( 89% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-08-08; judged right by Cato on 2019-08-08.
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The Collatz Conjecture will not be proven/disproven this year ( 99% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-08-03; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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The heat death of the universe ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by hserl on 2019-07-28; known on 2100-07-16.
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US President to visit Iran by 2020-01-25 ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-26; known on 2020-01-26; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-31.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] a second Brexit referendum to be formally announced ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-04.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] a second Brexit referendum to have been held ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-04.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] “Brexit with a deal” to have happened ( 7% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-04.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] “no-deal Brexit” to have happened ( 18% confidence; 20 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-11-05.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] the UK to not be a member of the European Union ( 27% confidence; 14 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-04.
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If Joe Biden wins the 2020 democratic bid for president then Donald Trump will win the 2020 election. ( 50% confidence; 29 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by jprettner on 2019-06-28; known on 2019-08-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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Bitcoin (BTC) touches $20,000 USD before January 1st, 2020 ( 7% confidence; 22 wagers )
Created by jamesrom on 2019-06-24; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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SPY return positive in year 2019 ( 83% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by objclone on 2019-06-20; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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U.S. Stock Market at or above current worth through the November 2020 elections (as measured by the S&P500 – $2886.73 on June 10th 2019) ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by lettergram on 2019-06-10; known on 2020-11-05; judged right by lettergram on 2020-11-05.
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Trump wins a second term in office ( 48% confidence; 29 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-06-05; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by avi on 2020-11-07.
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Andrew Yang runs as a third party candidate ( 13% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-06-03; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-11-02.
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[Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor to be released, conditional on Canadian government] still holding Meng Wanzhou ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-06-01.
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OpenAI will announce that it's hit its 100X returns cap for an investor (or investor round). ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2019-05-22; known on 2035-01-01.
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Tesla stock trades below $150 on or before 2 May 2020 ( 3% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by separo on 2019-05-19; known on 2020-05-02; judged wrong by separo on 2020-05-03.
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/r/gwern will have been banned by Reddit ( 7% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by quanticle on 2019-05-18; known on 2025-01-01.
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The UK to leave the EU without a deal on, or by, 31 October ( 30% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-05-16; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2019-11-01.