Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 20% | 14% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 12 |
Displaying all predictions made by reallyyesreally. Filter by:
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Someone (Skyler probably) goes ahead and implements the match maker service and suddenly posts it within a week. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by deskglass on 2014-12-07; known on 2014-12-14; judged wrong by deskglass on 2014-12-14.
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You – yes, you – do not actually possess a rudimentary self-consistent model of either rationality, yourself or the world around you that you consistently re-adjust using the feedback from this tool. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by reallyyesreally on 2014-12-03; known on 2015-07-02.
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There will be a planned meetup with FMK during the week commencing 8/12 ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-12-07; known on 2014-12-14; judged right by qwerty314 on 2014-12-13.
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Mercury will not exist anymore by January 1st 2214. ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-12-06; known on 2214-01-01.
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I will do the gig on the 20th ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-05; known on 2014-12-21; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-21.
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I will make at least one discussion level post on Less Wrong before January 15th ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-05; known on 2015-01-15; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-27.
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I will have my students' final grades in by December 21st. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-04; known on 2014-12-22; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-22.
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There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020. ( 63% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-12-03; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Fewer than 5% of the predictions on this site are about something genuinely meaningful to either the poster or anyone around them. ( 92% confidence; 4 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by reallyyesreally on 2014-12-03; known on 2015-07-02; judged wrong by Philip_W on 2014-12-13.
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My startup Synaptitude raises at least $100,000 when we launch on Kickstarter sometime in Q1 (early) 2015: http://synaptitude.me/ ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-11-30; known on 2015-05-01; judged wrong by lettergram on 2015-03-17.
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I will have over 300 predictions by 2016 ( 34% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-24; known on 2016-01-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16.