Unjudged Predictions
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I will use PredictionBook at least once a month until Jan 2021 ( 51% confidence )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-19; known on 2021-01-01.
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For the year of 2020, natural gas will account for a higher percentage of US energy consumption than wind and solar power combined. ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-18; known on 2021-01-01.
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US obesity rate above 28.9% in 2020 ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-26; known on 2021-01-01.
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“By 2020, solar energy will be price-competitive with energy generated from fossil fuels on an unsubsidized basis in most parts of the world.” – Vivek Wadhwa ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Ontario leaves cap & trade system ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-25; known on 2021-01-01.
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Vine to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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By 2021, iOS/iPad will be/have a full fledged development environment for app development. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by silacoid on 2016-06-14; known on 2021-01-01.
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IBM to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015 ( 38% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Microsoft to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015 ( 35% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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US unilaterally attempts to takes over 1M$ USD from US-MEX remittances ( 68% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-10; known on 2021-01-01.
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Twitter to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015 ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Apple to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Matlab to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Akasha Project less than 100,000 active users ( 92% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-06; known on 2021-01-01.
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61%+ unemployment, 96%+ water unsafe, over 75k homeless, over 50% of them children, <6 hours/day of electricity in gaza (at least 3 of the above) ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-28; known on 2021-01-01.
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SNPs to explain at least 5% of the variability for autism will be identified by 2020 ( 30% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2021-01-01.
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Justin Trudeau is caught some group of protesters the finger ( 49% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-08; known on 2021-01-01.
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China floats the yuan ( 47% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-10; known on 2021-01-01.
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U.S. equities will return 1.8% 2010-2020. —Smithers & Co. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Daffy will move out of the Bay Area ( 70% confidence )
Created by daffy on 2020-05-12; known on 2021-01-01.
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Abortion illegal in at least one state in the US / Roe v. Wade overturned / passed through Senate/Congress/President/Supreme Court ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01.
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At least one of the UK, France, Germany, US or China will not meet their goals committed at the UN climate change conference in Paris. ( 87% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-17; known on 2021-01-01.
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When Maru dies, his owner (or someone else) will post videos of him and/or his coffin. ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by roxton on 2011-10-05; known on 2021-01-01.
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Trump explicitly invokes a credit wake ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-17; known on 2021-01-01.
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Created by viissataa on 2018-02-26; known on 2021-01-01.
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at least 2 political prisoners executed in US ( 84% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01.
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Terrorist Attack in US with >12 deaths or new US version of Falklands War (ie not war with Russia, China, EU but 'smaller country') ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-19; known on 2021-01-01.
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ATF Elimination Act passes ( 51% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2021-01-01.
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Number of countries bombed by the US in 2020 is < 7 ( 12% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-31; known on 2021-01-01.
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adsfasdfasdf ( 70% confidence )
Created by daffy on 2020-05-12; known on 2021-01-01.
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Something gets leaked that makes Donald Trump look dumb. ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2021-01-01.
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Number of countries bombed by the US in 2020 is > 7 ( 87% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-31; known on 2021-01-01.
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Number of countries bombed by the US in 2020 is = 7 ( 4% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-31; known on 2021-01-01.
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Halflife 3 will be VR-based (conditional on HL3 being released) ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2021-01-01.
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compulsory conscription in sweden, or sweden invaded ( 57% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-17; known on 2021-01-01.
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Amber Rudd next Prime Minister of the UK (post whoever wins #GE2017 ( 19% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09; known on 2021-01-01.
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Scientists will find life on Enceladus before 2020, this information will lead us to realize life is also plentiful in the universe in different forms. ( 26% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by jprettner on 2017-05-18; known on 2021-01-01.
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Thiel Fellowship will still run in 2020 ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2021-01-01.
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Manage to make the REDACTED sufficiently fun and interesting that we can get the core concepts integrated into the series by REDACTED. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Temeraire on 2017-04-29; known on 2021-01-01.
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MIT Course 6 (EECS) to still be MIT's most popular major by 2020 ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2021-01-01.
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Computer Science to remain Harvard's most popular undergraduate major in 2020 ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2021-01-01.
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SENS Foundation to reach a budget of 10 million dollars a year by 2020 (https://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/3fri9a/ask_aubrey_de_grey_anything/ctrjwxm ) ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-05; known on 2021-01-01.
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Federal government of Canada passes law banning encryption use ( 54% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-20; known on 2021-01-01.
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“Some p2p cryptocurrency is going to become THE world reserve currency this decade” – Jacob Cannell ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2021-01-01.
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Blockchain-based social platform to come out by 2020, and become a Top 1000 site (https://medium.com/@ryanxcharles/fix-reddit-with-bitcoin-7da3f85fb9ba ) ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2021-01-01.
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There will be an commercially available way to auto-scan all your old notebooks into your hard drives by 2020 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2021-01-01.
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Movie theaters to be less popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-25; known on 2021-01-01.
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HeavenGames to last to (at least) 2020 ( 60% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2021-01-01.
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Rex Computing products (including the Neo Chip) to capture at least 1% of the CPU market by 2020 (see http://fortune.com/2015/07/21/rex-computing/?xid=soc_socialflow_facebook_FORTUNE, http://www.rexcomputing.com/) ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-22; known on 2021-01-01.
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Goodreads to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-22; known on 2021-01-01.