Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 67% | 50% | 50% | 75% | 100% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
Displaying all predictions made by im. Filter by:
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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There will be strong evidence of technologically advanced (contemporary human level or greater) extraterrestrial life by 2016. ETA: evidence of a technologically advanced civilization existing or having existed somewhere outside our solar system. ( 6% confidence; 31 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
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I will have completed my topology homework by the end of the weekend. ( 60% confidence )
Created by im on 2009-10-15; known on 2009-10-19; judged wrong by im on 2009-10-29.
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I will be entirely caught up on grading by the end of the weekend. ( 85% confidence )
Created by im on 2009-10-15; known on 2009-10-19; judged wrong by im on 2009-10-29.
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There will be a third party candidate that gets more than 5% in the 2012 election for president in the US. ( 19% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-15; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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The world will end in 2012 ( 17% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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I'll have made 100 predictions on prediction book by the end of the month ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2009-11-01; judged right by anonym on 2009-11-01.
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There will be a data loss incident (theft, accidental release, crash etc.) involving more than 100 million personal records before the end of 2012. ( 81% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Arenamontanus on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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There will be a data loss incident (theft, accidental release, crash etc.) involving one billion personal records before 2019. ( 43% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Arenamontanus on 2009-10-14; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040. ( 68% confidence; 46 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by rwallace on 2009-10-14; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by freyley on 2009-10-21.
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Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years. ( 85% confidence; 16 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2019-10-14; judged right by rwallace on 2019-10-15.
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General consensus among mathematicians that 2, 3, 5 and 7 are prime numbers will not change in the next year. ( 99% confidence; 26 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged right by jasticE on 2010-10-14.
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The US economy will collapse resulting in massive inflation prior to the end of 2010. ( 30% confidence; 24 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by max on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-01-01.
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World-wide Search-Engine Market-Share: Bing & Microsoft will replace yahoo in the #2 spot for a prolonged period (Minimum of 1 week). ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-22; known on 2009-09-22; judged wrong by TwitterPredicts on 2009-10-16.