Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
Displaying all predictions made by So8res. Filter by:
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Gathering/absorbing Hawking radiation and generating a net surplus of useful energy (not counting what you feed into the black hole) would violate the Second Law of Thermodynamics. ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by orthonormal on 2015-08-18; known on 2016-01-01.
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Nate will have “expanding the MIRI researcher team” as one of his first priorities for at least one month in the first four months of 2015 ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by So8res on 2014-11-17; known on 2015-05-01.
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The Botworld paper will cause someone from IDSIA to express some opinion about AIXItl working in only restricted environments, which that person from IDSIA says they did not possess before reading about Botworld, or the update is apparent from their previ ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by yudkowsky@gmail.com on 2014-05-04; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by orthonormal on 2015-01-15.