Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 53% | 65% | 78% | 86% | 94% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 616 | 437 | 419 | 458 | 711 | 175 | 2816 |
Displaying all predictions made by JoshuaZ. Filter by:
-
Rand Paul will be the Republican Nominee for President for the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Season ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Faceh on 2015-01-25; known on 2016-07-21; judged wrong by Faceh on 2016-05-03.
-
Harvard endowment in 2020 to exceed that of 2015 ( 61% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-16; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2021-10-13.
-
At least one Apollo astronaut will see man land on Mars ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2035-01-16.
-
LessWrong to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
-
India to successfully launch at least 15 more commercial satellites before 2018. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-12; known on 2018-01-16; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-16.
-
Greek Central Government or some Greek Institutions will agree to move at least 24 000 million euro worth of assets to a judicial person outside Greek jurisdiction. The initial agreement happens within the deadline of this prediction. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2015-07-12; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-09-03.
-
Kurdistan will be a UN member by 2018. ( 30% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-07-12; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
-
There will be a De Facto independent Kurdistan incorporating territory in both former Syria and Iraq through 2020. ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-07-12; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-08-05.
-
The Greek military or goverment will not sign any document of surrender, pay reparations or lose any territory as a result of military action within the next two decades. ( 86% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-07-12; known on 2035-01-01.
-
Syriza will remain in power through 2020 ( 33% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-07-12; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
-
Jon Snow will be alive in some shape or form during Season 6 of Game of Thrones (excluding flashbacks and dream sequences) ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by BiasedCalibration on 2015-07-11; known on 2016-06-30; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-02.
-
John Paul Stevens to become a centenarian ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05.
-
At least one of the Apollo astronauts will become a centenarian ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2036-01-01.
-
At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030 ( 28% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
-
At least 10% of 18-year olds in the US will be unschooled by 2030 ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
-
Food shortages, resurgent Islamic radicalism, and a torrent of oil revenues will cause an “Arab Spring” movement to overthrow the Saudi Arabian government (http://rationalconspiracy.com/2012/11/23/the-real-america-of-2022/) ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2023-01-01.
-
Daniel Dennett to do an IAmA on reddit by 2020 ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01.
-
Alzheimer's to be a curable illness by 2030 ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
-
Gorillas will go extinct in the wild by 2030 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
-
Kakapo will go extinct by 2030 ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
-
Solar Energy to reach 25% of total world energy generation by 2030 ( 27% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
-
Tuition at Harvard to be more expensive in 2020 than it is in 2015 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01.
-
By 2030, at least one mainly self-driving privately owned car will be legally driven on the Norwegian main roads. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by silacoid on 2015-07-10; known on 2030-01-01.
-
By 2025, at least 30% of new cars sold in Norway will be electric. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by silacoid on 2015-07-10; known on 2025-01-01; judged right by silacoid on 2021-06-07.
-
The greek banks will not open unrestricted on monday 2015-07-13 ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by silacoid on 2015-07-10; known on 2015-07-13; judged right by silacoid on 2015-07-13.
-
PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020 ( 83% confidence; 40 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
-
At least one Nobel Laureate in Physics will have become a centenarian by 2025 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2025-12-16.
-
Freeman Dyson will become a centenarian ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2023-12-16.
-
Jimmy Carter to become the longest-living president in US History ( 54% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2018-03-16; judged right by InquilineKea on 2020-06-02.
-
voat.co to become a top 300 site by the end of 2015 ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-31.
-
In the next 3 years, someone will use goodai.com's AI framework to build an AI that will be dangerous and/or powerful enough that the US government will acknowledge it as a major problem. ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by timujin on 2015-07-09; known on 2018-07-09; judged wrong by moyamo on 2018-08-12.
-
Ellen Pao will no longer be CEO of Reddit by September 1, 2015 ( 30% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2015-07-09; known on 2015-09-01; judged right by gwern on 2015-07-10.
-
Scotland to secede from the UK in 2017. ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-09; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
-
Las Malvinas to be liberated by Argentina. ( 35% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-09; known on 2017-10-27; judged wrong by Pablo on 2017-10-27.
-
Bharat's ranking in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business report would be at least 105, up from 142 last year. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-09; known on 2015-10-27; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-28.
-
Predictionbook's overall confidence will remain within 5% of accuracy in buckets 50-90 by 2016. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sdr on 2015-07-09; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by btrettel on 2016-01-01.
-
Donald Trump will be the last president of a unified United States of America, or be assassinated, dethroned, or impeached while in office. ( 13% confidence; 26 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-07-09; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
-
“Russia will just come in to pick up the pieces. I'll give it a 70% chance they'll move in before the year ends.” ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-08; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-03.
-
Boson Sampling or Scattershot Boson Sampling with at least 12 photons to be performed by January 1, 2026. ( 55% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2026-01-01.
-
As of January 1, 2021, Russia to have second most number of active nuclear powered subs out of any country. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
-
The US to have at least 20 active nuclear submarines by the end of 2020. ( 99% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
-
The United States to have more nuclear powered submarines than any other single country through 2020. ( 86% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
-
2048 bit RSA keys to be widely considered to be deprecated by July 7, 2028 ( 65% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2028-07-08.
-
By January 1, 2017, no unambiguous contact with intelligent extraterrestrials. ( 99% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
-
The US 2016 Presidential election will occur on its currently scheduled Tuesday date. ( 96% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2016-11-12; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
-
When/if Raahul_Kumar reaches 30 predictions for which the answer becomes known and he assigned >95% confidence, he will have at best 65% accuracy for the 100% category ( 55% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-21.
-
When/if Raahul_Kumar reaches 30 predictions for which the answer becomes known and he assigned >95% confidence, he will have at best 50% accuracy for the 100% category ( 33% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-07-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-21.
-
Mass shooting occurs in the US before year end (>5 deaths or casualties) ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-07-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by jesselevine on 2015-07-17.
-
ECB to withdraw Greek ELA before the end of the week. Withdraw means complete end to ELA. ( 29% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by modulus on 2015-07-06; known on 2015-07-11; judged wrong by modulus on 2015-07-11.
-
Greece will return to the Drachma and abandon the Euro currency ( 40% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2015-07-05; known on 2016-07-05; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-05.
-
Mitt Romney will decide to run for President in 2016 ( 12% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by SalTnutZ1 on 2015-07-05; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-31.
-
The Dallas Cowboys will win a Super Bowl by 2018 ( 14% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by SalTnutZ1 on 2015-07-05; known on 2018-02-15.
-
Hillary Clinton to be the next US President, and win popular vote by at least 4.5% ( 27% confidence; 17 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-05; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
-
Greece will vote “no” on the Sunday referendum ( 62% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by modulus on 2015-07-05; known on 2015-07-06; judged right by modulus on 2015-07-05.
-
Democrats to control US Senate after 2016 election. ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-03; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
-
France will default on its debt ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-02; known on 2015-12-27; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-12-27.
-
UK will default on its debt. ( 55% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-02; known on 2015-12-27; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-12-27.
-
Ukraine will default on its debt ( 74% confidence; 7 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-02; known on 2015-12-27; judged right by kuudes on 2015-10-06.
-
The June 2015 TOP500 supercomputer rankings will include 4 or more computers in the top 10 with GPUs available for processing ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-05; known on 2015-08-02; judged wrong by btrettel on 2015-07-16.
-
By January 30th, 2016 War between Satan and God, clearly happening to those on Earth. ( 0% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-30; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-02.
-
Bharat will grow 10% in real GDP terms year on year from 2015-25. That will take Bharat from a 2.3 trillion USD nominal economy to 10.3 trillion dollar economy in 10 years, where Zhonghua is currently.In PPP terms Bharat will be the 2nd biggest economy. ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-11; known on 2025-05-12.
-
The United Kingdom's referendum will vote to stay in the European Union. ( 61% confidence; 40 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by sdr on 2015-06-27; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ejlflop on 2016-06-24.
-
US election will be Bush v. Clinton ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-25; known on 2016-08-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
-
human head transplant will be successful in 2017/2018? ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Avadak on 2015-05-02; known on 2018-01-02; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
-
Among all US high-tech (IT, all computer {soft, hard}ware development) jobs, of the total hours worked in 2035, >=75% will be worked from home. ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sh on 2015-06-25; known on 2036-01-01.
-
Jeb Bush will not be elected President of the United States. ( 75% confidence; 21 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by James Babcock on 2015-06-24; known on 2016-11-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
-
Extreme upset of how things are by January 30th, 2016 ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-23; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-01.
-
Conditional on neither Hillary or Bernie withdrawing before the Iowa caucus or either candidate running as an independent, Bernie Sanders will be the Democratic nominee for President. ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-22; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
-
NIST's overall budget will increase from FY 2015 to 2016 ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-21; known on 2016-03-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-29.
-
I will see someone I know at, or on the way to Pizza Express tomorrow ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-06-20; known on 2015-06-21; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-06-21.
-
Apple will buy Tesla by 2020 ( 17% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ira on 2015-06-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-01-02.
-
By the end of 2015, at least one poll of Bernie Sanders v. a GOP candidate in head-to-head will be done that is respected enough that it will be included by RCP on their Presidential polling list. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-29.
-
Jeb Bush to be next President elect of the US. ( 15% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-19; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
-
Jeb! to be voted President of the United States. Republicans Rule House and Senate as they currently do already! ( 51% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-06-19; known on 2017-06-19; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-02-21.
-
Jeb Bush to be the 2016 Republican nominee. ( 49% confidence; 18 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-17; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-02-21.
-
“I predict that California violent crime rates should rise about 4 percent relative to the rest of the U.S. over the next few years.” — Steven D. Levitt (http://www.freakonomics.com/2011/06/01/the-supreme-court-provides-a-dissertation-topic-for-a-budding ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by Pavitra on 2011-06-16; known on 2017-06-17; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-06-25.
-
Greece will default on it's sovereign debt, or exit the Eurozone (possibly both) ( 65% confidence; 19 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Afforess on 2015-11-12.
-
Syria’s civil war will not end before 2016. ( 93% confidence; 51 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02.
-
Assad will remain President of Syria for the remainder of 2015. ( 89% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-02.
-
No terrorist attack in the USA will kill > 100 people before 2016. ( 91% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2016-01-02.
-
Ebola will kill fewer people in second half of 2015 than the in first half. ( 91% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02.
-
Neither Russia nor Qatar will lose their World Cups before 2016. ( 90% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by jesselevine on 2016-01-27.
-
Greece will not announce it’s leaving the Euro before 2016. ( 59% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2016-01-02.
-
North Korea’s government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt before 2016. ( 89% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-02.
-
US will not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers before 2016. ( 76% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2016-01-02.
-
Google Scholar will operate through 2025-07-01 ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-15; known on 2025-07-01.
-
Direct commercial access to the web through a brain link by 2030 ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-12; known on 2030-01-01.
-
The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01 ( 82% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-11; known on 2025-07-01.
-
arXiv will operate through 2025-07-01 ( 86% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-11; known on 2025-07-01.
-
My research this summer will result in a published paper ( 38% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ejlflop on 2015-06-11; known on 2016-06-16; judged wrong by ejlflop on 2016-06-16.
-
I will be single as of October 2015 ( 73% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ejlflop on 2015-06-11; known on 2015-10-01; judged right by splorridge on 2015-12-08.
-
Reddit will lose ≥50% of its userbase to Voat or similar by 2018, due to censorship concerns ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ejlflop on 2015-06-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2018-05-31.
-
Bernie Sanders to still be in the race by March 8th, 2016 ( 77% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-06; known on 2016-03-08; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-08.
-
Aam Aadmi Party, like the Indian National Congress, will disappear from the electoral map of India. ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-03; known on 2030-01-01.
-
Charles Kennedy cause of death will seem to have been confirmed as suicide in 2015 (in my judgement if ambiguous or disputed) ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-06-02; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-06-14.
-
New Tau paper to be published by July 15, 2016 ( 90% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-02; known on 2016-07-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-07-16.
-
Both the Democrats and the Republicans will each have at least 160 seats in the 115th House of Representatives ( 85% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-02; known on 2016-11-12; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
-
By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ( 29% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-25; known on 2025-01-01.
-
No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo ( 45% confidence; 13 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-22; known on 2050-05-29.
-
I will be involved in a bike crash serious enough that the police or EMS will respond between 2015-09-01 and 2016-05-01 ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-05-29; known on 2016-05-02; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-05-02.