Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 55% | 66% | 61% | 79% | 92% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 42 | 107 | 90 | 80 | 154 | 10 | 483 |
Displaying all predictions made by ioannes. Filter by:
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Ebola epidemic has ended. ( 93% confidence; 16 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-01-14; judged right by ioannes on 2016-01-14.
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2016 predictions: there will not be any terrorist attacks in the US that kill more than 40 people. ( 74% confidence; 22 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-12.
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Donald Trump to be the next US President. ( 26% confidence; 73 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-30; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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I will complete the DAND program by the end of January 2016. ( 70% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2015-12-26; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-02-01.
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I will write a blog post about “One Minute to Midnight” tomorrow. ( 80% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2015-12-26; known on 2015-12-27; judged right by ioannes on 2015-12-27.
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I will submit my third DAND project by the end of the weekend. ( 65% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2015-12-26; known on 2015-12-28; judged wrong by ioannes on 2015-12-29.
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I will sell my Subaru Forester before returning to the Bay Area ( 30% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2015-12-26; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by ioannes on 2015-12-29.
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I will finish “Learn Python the Hard Way” by the end of 2015 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2015-12-26; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-01-04.
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Brexit: UK will vote to leave the EU in the referendum. ( 39% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-11; known on 2017-11-25; judged right by mortehu on 2016-06-25.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky to have at least 1 child by 2020 ( 22% confidence; 31 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by sdr on 2015-10-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-01-01.
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Donald Trump will lose the New Hampshire primary. ( 56% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by KBVMD on 2015-09-13; known on 2016-02-09; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-02-10.
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Donald Trump will lose the Iowa caucuses. ( 61% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by KBVMD on 2015-09-13; known on 2016-02-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-02.
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Ted Cruz to win the Republican nomination for President. ( 14% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-27; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020 ( 83% confidence; 40 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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By January 1, 2017, no unambiguous contact with intelligent extraterrestrials. ( 99% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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US election will be Bush v. Clinton ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-25; known on 2016-08-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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Jeb Bush will not be elected President of the United States. ( 75% confidence; 21 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by James Babcock on 2015-06-24; known on 2016-11-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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I will be involved in a bike crash serious enough that the police or EMS will respond between 2015-09-01 and 2016-05-01 ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-05-29; known on 2016-05-02; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-05-02.
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A close friend or relative will commit suicide within the next 2 years ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-06-27; known on 2016-06-27; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2019-01-08.
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Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 USA election. ( 43% confidence; 38 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2013-11-11; known on 2016-11-30; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022 ( 34% confidence; 35 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-15; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by M on 2022-01-01.
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My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028 ( 8% confidence; 18 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-12; known on 2028-12-31.
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No paper primarily about Geoff Anders' Connection Theory will be published in a peer-reviewed psychology journal in the next 5 years. ( 89% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-27; known on 2017-09-27; judged right by lukeprog on 2017-09-27.
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Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time. ( 92% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Citizen553 on 2009-11-18; known on 2159-11-18; judged unknown by Jack on 2010-01-26.