Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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my mum will walk in on me ( 4% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by YOUNGMULLAH on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-10; judged right by leanh on 2010-02-10.
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Le Anh Le will be working in st.kilda by 2012 ( 100% confidence )
Created by kieran90 on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-01; judged wrong by dani on 2010-02-10.
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penor ( 95% confidence )
Created by al3xal3x on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-01; judged wrong by arivera on 2010-02-10.
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penor ( 95% confidence )
Created by al3xal3x on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-01; judged wrong by arivera on 2010-02-10.
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Le Anh Le will be working in st.kilda by 2012 ( 100% confidence )
Created by kieran90 on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-01; judged wrong by dani on 2010-02-10.
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pokemon ( 90% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by al3xal3x on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-17; judged right by geralis32 on 2010-02-10.
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Le Anh Le will be working in st.kilda by 2012 ( 100% confidence )
Created by kieran90 on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-01; judged wrong by dani on 2010-02-10.
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pokemon ( 90% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by al3xal3x on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-17; judged right by geralis32 on 2010-02-10.
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Collingwood will make the grand final this year ( 85% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by jimbob7 on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-10; judged wrong by geralis32 on 2010-02-10.
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Collingwood will make the grand final this year ( 85% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by jimbob7 on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-10; judged wrong by geralis32 on 2010-02-10.
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Le Anh Le will be working in st.kilda by 2012 ( 100% confidence )
Created by kieran90 on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-01; judged wrong by dani on 2010-02-10.
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Le Anh Le will be working in st.kilda by 2012 ( 100% confidence )
Created by kieran90 on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-01; judged wrong by dani on 2010-02-10.
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Le Anh Le will be working in st.kilda by 2012 ( 100% confidence )
Created by kieran90 on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-01; judged wrong by dani on 2010-02-10.
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Collingwood will make the grand final this year ( 85% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by jimbob7 on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-10; judged wrong by geralis32 on 2010-02-10.
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pretty sure that dani is the greatest. ( 100% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by dani on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-10; judged right by cointelligence on 2010-02-28.
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a tree will fall on my face ( 1% confidence )
Created by YOUNGMULLAH on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-10; judged right by YOUNGMULLAH on 2010-02-10.
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a tree will fall on my face ( 1% confidence )
Created by YOUNGMULLAH on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-10; judged right by YOUNGMULLAH on 2010-02-10.
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pretty sure that dani is the greatest. ( 100% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by dani on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-10; judged right by cointelligence on 2010-02-28.
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I will predict that Gossip Girl will not last 2 more seasons on T.V ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kimmjaynedowling on 2010-02-09; known on 2010-02-01; judged wrong by Nads on 2010-02-10.
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pretty sure that dani is the greatest. ( 100% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by dani on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-10; judged right by cointelligence on 2010-02-28.
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I get into MIT ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PotatoDumplings on 2010-01-05; known on 2010-06-05; judged wrong by PotatoDumplings on 2010-03-14.
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pretty sure that dani is the greatest. ( 100% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by dani on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-10; judged right by cointelligence on 2010-02-28.
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Avatar will stay in the top 10 Box Office till March 2010 ( 80% confidence )
Created by kimmjaynedowling on 2010-02-09; known on 2010-02-01; judged right by mavmetropolis on 2010-02-10.
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Tiger Woods and Elin Nordegren will seperate within the year ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sharidanbowman on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by kimmjaynedowling on 2010-02-10.
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Posh spice, Victoria Beckham fashion label will hit an all time low in 2010 ( 80% confidence )
Created by Holly on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-06-16; judged right by kimmjaynedowling on 2010-02-10.
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People will start rolling their jeans up from the bottom ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Holly on 2010-02-09; known on 2010-02-01; judged right by gracelouise on 2010-02-09.
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saints win Superbowl ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by hoodoo2 on 2009-11-18; known on 2010-02-07; judged right by hoodoo2 on 2010-02-09.
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By 2010-02-01 Oliver will have paid the minimum monthly amount requested as indicated on the Student Loan Corporation statements for 2010-Jan using his own, unborrowed funds. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2010-02-01; judged wrong by olimay on 2010-02-01.
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I will post a blog post on anthropics within one week ( 70% confidence )
Created by KatjaGrace on 2010-01-15; known on 2010-01-22; judged wrong by KatjaGrace on 2010-01-26.
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For Australia the sex ratio at birth is 1.05 male(s)/female. Stats overall are probably skewed by incidence of deliberate female foetus abortions. Therefore I am 50% sure it will be a boy ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by EvF on 2009-05-17; known on 2009-06-17; judged wrong by Matt on 2010-01-25.
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US Unemployment Rate in Dec 2009 will be greater than 10.00% ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged wrong by Matt on 2010-01-25.
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Dow Jones will close ON or ABOVE 6500 ( 91% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by Matt on 2010-01-25.
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Dow Jones will close ON or ABOVE 6000 ( 96% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by Matt on 2010-01-25.
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Dow Jones will close ON or ABOVE 8000 at end of 2009 ( 92% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by Matt on 2010-01-25.
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Volcom will dip below $10 again before the end of 2009 ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Andy on 2009-04-24; known on 2009-12-31; judged wrong by Matt on 2010-01-25.
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Google wave will be a new always open tab in my browser. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Lina on 2009-05-28; known on 2010-01-06; judged right by Matt on 2010-01-25.
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I like smoked gouda ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by senile on 2010-01-21; known on 0139-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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I like smoked gouda ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by senile on 2010-01-21; known on 0139-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Investling site will be live ( 70% confidence )
Created by Wes on 2010-01-19; known on 2010-01-20; judged right by Wes on 2010-01-20.
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This website's statistics will show that people pick percentages with a '2' in them anomalously often- presumably due to priming from the 'my 2 cents' ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Larks on 2009-10-17; known on 2010-01-16; judged wrong by Larks on 2010-01-16.
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The paper I'm reading about the implications of an infinite number of people in every situation in the universe will conclude that we can still be ethical ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by KatjaGrace on 2010-01-15; known on 2010-01-17; judged right by KatjaGrace on 2010-01-16.
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KD is K D P/L ( 95% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2010-01-08; known on 2010-01-08; judged wrong by nomadphase on 2010-01-11.
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KD is K D P/L ( 95% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2010-01-08; known on 2010-01-08; judged wrong by nomadphase on 2010-01-11.
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Chicago Bears will make playoffs. ( 57% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Philo on 2009-10-17; known on 2010-01-04; judged wrong by Philo on 2010-01-04.
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The statistical plot of sitewide predictions will approach a horizontal line, 50% accuracy, as the usage base increases ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2008-08-01; known on 2009-11-11; judged wrong by Matt on 2010-01-03.
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We'll find a human-based way to fix integration with MYOB or opt for a different accounting solution. ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by captainpete on 2009-11-30; known on 2009-12-30; judged wrong by Matt on 2010-01-03.
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There will be no new PD clients till the end of the year :( ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tom on 2009-12-13; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by Matt on 2010-01-03.
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Someone (likely a tall German) will have an Xbox plugged into the Trike TV before New Year's Day. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Matt on 2009-12-22; known on 2010-01-01; judged wrong by Matt on 2010-01-03.
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Australia will have a double-dissolution election in 2009 due to the Liberal party blocking changes to the private health insurance rebate. ( 5% confidence )
Created by Lina on 2009-05-14; known on 2010-01-01; judged right by Lina on 2010-01-02.
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Australia will have a double-dissolution election in 2009 due to the Liberal party blocking changes to the private health insurance rebate. ( 5% confidence )
Created by Lina on 2009-05-14; known on 2010-01-01; judged right by Lina on 2010-01-02.