Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 64% | 63% | 72% | 81% | 90% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 72 | 204 | 299 | 365 | 194 | 14 | 1148 |
Displaying all predictions made by jbeshir. Filter by:
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Personal – I manage to find a way to store my bike at ground level, short of the stairwell, before start of 2020-02-01 ( 55% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-11; known on 2020-02-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-02-01.
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Personal – My heating has been fixed by 2020-01-25 ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-11; known on 2020-01-26; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-01-27.
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Personal – My heating has been fixed by 2020-01-18 ( 20% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-11; known on 2020-01-18; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-01-18.
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Politics – Iran strikes, and does not deny striking, a US military base between 2020-01-12 and 2020-02-02 ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-11; known on 2020-02-03; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-02-03.
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Personal – I weigh in at or below 70kg at least once before start of 2020-07-01. ( 85% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-08; known on 2020-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
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Personal, Productivity – I clear my Anki due cards in active decks by deadline. ( 75% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-05; known on 2020-01-06; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-01-11.
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[US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Pete Buttigieg ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-23; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Bernie Sanders ( 28% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-23; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Joe Biden ( 29% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-23; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022 ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-08-12; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-01-01.
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Personal, Productivity – I complete Art of Tidying discarding before deadline. ( 60% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2019-06-03; known on 2019-06-04; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-06-04.
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Personal, Productivity – I do at least 50 Neuroscience Anki cards before 2019-03-13 24:00. ( 75% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2019-03-13; known on 2019-03-14.
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Science – Conditional on being given an answer, I'm told that a majority of participants in the VAC066 trial did not develop malaria at the end of the monitoring period. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2019-02-17; known on 2019-03-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-03-05.
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Politics, UK – Current Labour MP resigns the whip before 2019-04-01 ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2019-02-17; known on 2019-04-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2019-02-19.
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Tech, AI – OpenAI publishes GPT-2 model weights before 2019-04-01 ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2019-02-17; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-01.
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Politics – Bashar al-Assad ceases to be president of Syria before 1 January 2020. ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2019-02-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-01-01.
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Before 1 January 2020, any EU member state besides the UK sets a date for a referendum on leaving the EU or the eurozone. ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2019-02-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-01-01.
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Politics, US – Mick Mulvaney ceases to be Chief of Staff before the 1st of January, 2020 ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2019-02-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-01-01.
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[Politics] Trump will be elected for a second term ( 45% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RedScharlach on 2019-02-15; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-11-07.
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[Politics] Trump will remain president for the expected duration of his first term ( 86% confidence; 15 wagers )
Created by RedScharlach on 2019-02-15; known on 2021-01-20; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-01-21.
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Personal – I suffer malaria symptoms before the end of the clinical trial. ( 40% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2019-02-13; known on 2019-03-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2019-03-05.
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The Yellow Jackets are still active and present in media in March ( 64% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Osuniev on 2019-01-27; known on 2019-03-16; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-03-17.
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UK – Drone sighting over Heathrow on 2019-01-08 leads to an arrest before or on 2019-01-15. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2019-01-08; known on 2019-01-16; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-23.
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UK – Drone sighting over Heathrow on 2019-01-08 fails to be substantiated (reinforced by other evidence and authorities describe as credible) before or on 2019-01-15. ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2019-01-08; known on 2019-01-16; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-23.
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Politics, UK – Fitch, Moody's, or S&P next downgrade the United Kingdom's long-term local or foreign currency issuer ratings on or before the 31st of July 2019. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2019-01-07; known on 2019-08-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-08-05.
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Politics, UK – Fitch, Moody's, or S&P next downgrade the United Kingdom's long-term local or foreign currency issuer ratings before the 30th of March 2019. ( 20% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2019-01-07; known on 2019-03-30; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-03-30.
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Politics, US – Trump declares a state of emergency prior to the 1st of February 2019. ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2019-01-07; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-02-08.
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The US government shutdown will end before April 1, 2019. ( 93% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-05; known on 2019-04-01; judged right by amadeu on 2019-01-25.
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The US government shutdown will end before March 1, 2019. ( 78% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-05; known on 2019-03-01; judged right by amadeu on 2019-01-25.
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The US government shutdown will end before February 1, 2019. ( 66% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-05; known on 2019-02-01; judged right by amadeu on 2019-01-25.
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Personal – I buy a coat before the 1st of January 2019. ( 70% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2019-01-02.
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Politics, US – U.S. Customs and Border Protection reports >=8000 “Southwest Family Unit Subject and Unaccompanied Alien Children Apprehensions” for the El Centro and San Diego sectors in January 2019. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-22; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-02-17.
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Politics, UK – There is a new prime minister of the United Kingdom before 1 July 2019, and they're from the Labour Party. ( 15% confidence; 14 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-22; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2019-07-03.
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Politics, UK – There is a new prime minister of the United Kingdom before 1 July 2019, and they're from the Conservative Party. ( 29% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-22; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-09.
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Politics, UK – Before 30 March 2019, the UK revokes Article 50. ( 10% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-22; known on 2019-03-30; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-03-30.
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Politics, UK – Before 30 March 2019, the UK and European Council agree to extend the Article 50 deadline. ( 46% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-22; known on 2019-03-30; judged right by jbeshir on 2019-03-30.
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Vladimir Putin won't be the President of the Russian Federation by March 2024 (i.e. he won't be able to finish his 4th term) ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Stommelen on 2018-12-21; known on 2024-03-17.
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Britain will have a second referendum on “Brexit.” ( 18% confidence; 19 wagers )
Created by balfours_ghost on 2018-12-11; known on 2019-03-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-04-24.
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Politics – North Korea conducts a nuclear test before 1 January 2020. ( 36% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Before 1 August 2019, Facebook announces that Mark Zuckerberg will cease to be the company's sole Chairman or CEO. Leave of a absence counts. ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-09; known on 2019-08-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-05.
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Personal, Productivity – I do French practice every day between 2018-12-10 and 2018-12-16 inclusive ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-09; known on 2018-12-17; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-02.
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Tumblr will revert the decision to ban pornography (to take effect in Dec 17) in the next 3 months. ( 33% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jazzsolo on 2018-12-03; known on 2019-03-03; judged wrong by jazzsolo on 2019-03-04.
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Personal, Productivity – I do at least an hour of work on my predictor before the end of 2018-12-02 UTC. ( 75% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-02; known on 2018-12-03; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-12-09.
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Econ -The Bank of England's Bank Rate on 1 April 2019 is between 0.26% and 0.5% inclusive. ( 18% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-24; known on 2019-04-02; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-04-15.
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Econ – The yield curve for 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasuries inverts before 2019, as defined as the former having a higher figure in the Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rate on any one day prior to then. ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-02.
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Econ – The percent change in the U.S. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) for the 12 months ending in December 2018 is between 2.3% and 2.5% inclusive. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-24; known on 2019-01-31; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-02-17.
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Personal, Productivity – I spent at least three hours working on ML projects before the end of 2018-11-24 UTC. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-24; known on 2018-11-25; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-11-28.
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Emergent Ventures will provide a grant to Kernel (my project) ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by bendini on 2018-11-22; known on 2019-02-19; judged wrong by bendini on 2019-03-26.
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Personal, Productivity – I have a model that appears to adequately identify potential spam user signups suitable for some choice of action before 2019-01-01. ( 55% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-22; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-02.
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Econ – The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the U.S. civilian unemployment rate (U3) for the month of December 2018 to be 3.7 or higher. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-20; known on 2019-02-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2019-02-17.
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Econ – The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the U.S. civilian unemployment rate (U3) for the month of December 2018 to be 3.6 or lower. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-20; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-02-17.
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Econ – The closing spot price for an ounce of gold against the US dollar on 28 December 2018 is between $1200 and $1250. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-20; known on 2018-12-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-30.
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Personal, Accounts – My Money Dashboard totals are below -£2000 at the start of 2019-01-04. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-20; known on 2019-01-04; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-23.
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Personal, Accounts – My Money Dashboard totals are below -£1000 at the start of 2019-01-04. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-20; known on 2019-01-04; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-04.
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[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 5 seconds ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2018-11-12; known on 2018-11-28; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2018-12-20.
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[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 3 minutes ( 87% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2018-11-12; known on 2018-11-28; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2018-12-20.
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[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 40 seconds ( 64% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2018-11-12; known on 2018-11-28; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2018-12-20.
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[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 20 seconds ( 43% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2018-11-12; known on 2018-11-28; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2018-12-20.
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Politics, US – In Timbs v. Indiana, the Supreme Court rules that the Excessive Fines Clause of the Eighth Amendment applies to states. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-11; known on 2019-05-30; judged right by jbeshir on 2019-06-09.
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Tech – Facebook's end-of-day market capitalization be on 28 December 2018 is between $360 billion and $430 billion. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-11; known on 2018-12-29; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-30.
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Politics, US – Before 1 March 2019, the U.S. imposes Global Magnitsky Sanctions on any member of Saudi Arabia's Council of Ministers for the death of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-11; known on 2019-03-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-03-05.
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Personal – I have either run a board gaming meetup in the two weeks before or have one scheduled for the two weeks after the 1st of December. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-08; known on 2018-12-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-12-09.
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Politics – Ashiq Masih is granted asylum in the UK, Canada, or US before the start of December. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-05; known on 2018-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-07.
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Politics, US – Martha McSally is elected senator for Arizona in the November 2018 election. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-05; known on 2018-11-07; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-15.
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Politics, US – Beto O'Rourke is listed by opensecrets.org as having raised the most money this election cycle out of Senate candidates on the 1st of December 2018. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-05; known on 2018-12-01; judged right by Jennifer on 2018-12-03.
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Politics, US – David Trone is listed by opensecrets.org as having raised the most money this election cycle on the 1st of December 2018. ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-05; known on 2018-12-01; judged right by Jennifer on 2018-12-03.
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Politics, US – California Proposition 12 in the November 2018 election passes. ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-10-20; known on 2018-11-07; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-11-08.
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Tech – Simon Segars (CEO of ARM) announces that they will not be attending the Future Investment Initiative in Riyadh before 2018-10-28. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-10-20; known on 2018-10-28; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-11-05.
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Tech – Bloomberg substantially retracts their story alleging Chinese infiltration of Apple and Amazon via compromised hardware before the end of November 2018. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-10-20; known on 2018-12-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-04.
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Politics, Turkey – Turkish government announces it has found at least part of the body of Jamal Khashoggi before the end of 2018-10-28 local time. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-10-20; known on 2018-10-29; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-11-05.
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Personal, Productivity – I spend a third hour cleaning or finish my cleaning backlog before 2018-10-19 23:00 UTC ( 90% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-10-19; known on 2018-10-19; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-10-20.
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Personal – I have mended at least one item of clothing via sewing before 2018-12-01. ( 25% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-10-17; known on 2018-12-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-12-09.
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Personal – I have some kind of cloud service invoking ML Engine to generate a list of its own probability assignments by end of November 2018. ( 87% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-10-17; known on 2018-12-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-12-09.
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Personal, Productivity – I do my Anki cards for Neuroscience (both due and new cards for the day) before 2018-10-15 4:00 UTC. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-10-14; known on 2018-10-15; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-10-15.
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Personal – I have completed at least one Anki card on five of the seven days prior to 2018-12-01 ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-10-08; known on 2018-12-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-12-09.
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Convincing evidence will prove that Amazon, Apple, etc.'s chips were compromised. ( 21% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by krazemon on 2018-10-06; known on 2019-04-06; judged wrong by krazemon on 2019-04-06.
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Politics, US – Kavanaugh is confirmed to SCOTUS before the 7th of November 2018. ( 86% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-29; known on 2018-11-07; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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Politics, US – Before 2019, the President, Vice President, White House Press Secretary, White House Chief of Staff, or Attorney General names a suspected author of the New York Times “Resistance” op-ed. ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-28; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-02.
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Politics, US – Brian Kemp is elected governor of Georgia in the 2018 election, ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-28; known on 2018-11-07; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-18.
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Politics, US – In Madison v. Alabama, the Supreme Court rules that the State of Alabama may not execute Vernon Madison. ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-28; known on 2019-08-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2019-08-05.
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Personal – I am either continuing with or have completed my Neuroscience course on Coursera as of 2018-12-01. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-28; known on 2018-12-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-12-09.
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Politics, UK – Theresa May is subject to a leadership challenge before 2019-01-01. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Politics, US – Before 1 January 2019, either house of Congress passes a bill that would limit the president's authority to impose tariffs. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-04.
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Politics, Korea – Before 1 January 2019, South Korean President Moon Jae-in visits Pyongyang. ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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Politics, US – A new Supreme Court Justice is confirmed by the Senate before 6 November 2018. ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-15; known on 2018-11-06; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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Personal – I still have a weekly cycle out as a goal for the week starting 2018-12-03. ( 85% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-12; known on 2018-12-03; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-12-09.
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Politics, Central America – Before 1 July 2019, Daniel Ortega ceases to be president of Nicaragua. ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-08; known on 2019-06-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2019-06-01.
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US, Politics – The “Fahrenheit 11/9” movie ranks 2nd in its first week in theaters on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-08; known on 2019-09-28; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-10-20.
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US, Politics – The “Fahrenheit 11/9” movie ranks 1st in its first week in theaters on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-08; known on 2018-09-28; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-10-20.
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US, Sports – A team from the American League wins the 2018 World Series. ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-08; known on 2018-11-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-02.
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Personal – I buy an ebike conversion kit (defined as one or more parts with the intent of fitting them to my bike to convert it into an ebike) before the end of 2018 ( 85% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-07; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-02.
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Personal, Productivity – I finish my ML course before 2018-07-09 9:00 UTC ( 90% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-07-08; known on 2018-07-09; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-07-09.
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Personal, Social – I go to the AW social group on 2018-08-09. ( 73% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-07-05; known on 2018-08-10; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-08-12.
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Politics, US – The US Federal government announces that the policy of separating migrant children from their parents as a routine practice is to be ended before the end of July 2018. ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-16; known on 2018-08-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-08-12.
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Politics, UK – Permission is granted or objections withdrawn by the Home Office to permitting Billy Caldwell to have a prescription for a THC-containing medical product before the end of July 2018. ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-16; known on 2018-08-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-08-06.
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Politics, UK – Bill specifically illegalising upskirting passes the House of Commons before the end of July 2018. ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-16; known on 2018-08-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-08-12.
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Politics – Trump claims that the North Koreans were not serious/deceptive about the meeting between him and Kim Jong Un at some point before the end of June 2018. ( 39% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-10; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-07-07.
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Politics, EU – Article 13 of the Copyright Directive passes before the end of June 2018. ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-10; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-07-06.
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Politics, US – An additional state after Illinois ratifies the Equal Rights Amendment by the end of July 2018. ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-08; known on 2018-08-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-08-12.
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Personal, Goals – I successfully complete Andrew Ng's Machine Learning course on Coursera by the end of the 27th of August 2018. ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-03; known on 2018-07-28; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-07-09.