Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Personal, Productivity – I do at least an hour's work for G by deadline. ( 92% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-04-16; known on 2021-04-17; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-04-18.
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Some form of certification to people immune to coronavirus will be issued in Spain (either for people vaccinated or recovered) ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sortega on 2020-04-06; known on 2021-06-16; judged right by sortega on 2021-04-16.
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My credence in strong longtermism will be up to 85 % after completing my essay ( 60% confidence )
Created by aarmai19 on 2021-02-05; known on 2021-03-16; judged wrong by aarmai19 on 2021-04-16.
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Jakes IO psych conference happens in April ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-16; known on 2021-04-16; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2021-04-16.
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India makes (attempts to make) it illegal for exchanges to facilitate trading bitcoin. ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by galaga on 2021-03-12; known on 2021-04-12; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-04-13.
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I'll fall asleep within one hour. ( 65% confidence )
Created by EliTyre on 2021-04-09; known on 2021-04-10; judged right by EliTyre on 2021-04-10.
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[Self] By the end of March, I will publish my secretary.el package. ( 50% confidence )
Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-09; known on 2021-03-31; judged wrong by meedstrom on 2021-04-10.
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[Self] By the end of March, I will have been tracking & reviewing my finances for 30+ days in a way that appears sustainable. ( 30% confidence )
Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-09; known on 2021-03-31; judged wrong by meedstrom on 2021-04-10.
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Lund University, Sweden returns to physical classrooms by April ( 30% confidence )
Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by meedstrom on 2021-04-10.
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[Self] I make a YouTube channel by end of February ( 20% confidence )
Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-02-28; judged wrong by meedstrom on 2021-04-10.
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[Project will be published [or privately completed] by Mar 31] NKU ( 10% confidence )
Created by marcus_a_davis on 2021-01-13; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2021-04-09.
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[Project will be published [or privately completed] by Mar 31] S2 ( 20% confidence )
Created by marcus_a_davis on 2021-01-13; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2021-04-09.
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[Project will be published [or privately completed] by Mar 31] S1 ( 5% confidence )
Created by marcus_a_davis on 2021-01-13; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2021-04-09.
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[Project will be published [or privately completed] by Mar 31] CM ( 40% confidence )
Created by marcus_a_davis on 2021-01-13; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2021-04-09.
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[Project will be published [or privately completed] by Mar 31] W5 ( 5% confidence )
Created by marcus_a_davis on 2021-01-13; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2021-04-09.
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[Project will be published [or privately completed] by Mar 31] W4 ( 10% confidence )
Created by marcus_a_davis on 2021-01-13; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2021-04-09.
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[Project will be published [or privately completed] by Mar 31] OFR ( 99% confidence )
Created by marcus_a_davis on 2021-01-13; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2021-04-09.
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[Project will be published [or privately completed] by Mar 31] IC ( 90% confidence )
Created by marcus_a_davis on 2021-01-13; known on 2021-04-01; judged right by marcus_a_davis on 2021-04-09.
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[Project will be published [or privately completed] by Mar 31] SP ( 60% confidence )
Created by marcus_a_davis on 2021-01-13; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2021-04-09.
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COVID, US – The CDC lists three or fewer variants under concern as monitored as of the 4th of April 2021. ( 38% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-15; known on 2021-04-05; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-04-07.
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COVID, US – The CDC lists four variants under concern as monitored as of the 4th of April 2021. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-15; known on 2021-04-05; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-04-07.
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COVID, US – The CDC lists five or more variants under concern as monitored as of the 4th of April 2021. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-15; known on 2021-04-05; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-04-07.
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Politics, UK – Margaret Ferrier resigns by April 2021 ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-31; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-04-05.
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COVID, US – US implements a Tabarrok vaccine idea to speed up vaccinations by 1st of April ( 23% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-07; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-04-05.
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[Geopolitics] Venezuelan regime change (defined as Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) (born 23 November 1962) not being President of Venezuela) within one year ( 23% confidence; 23 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2020-04-03; known on 2021-04-03; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2021-04-04.
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Personal, Productivity – I read up to page 650 of GEB by deadline. ( 85% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-04-03; known on 2021-04-04; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-04-03.
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Trump convicted by senate in 2021 ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-17; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by MultiplyByZer0 on 2021-04-02.
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Covid 19 will be eradicated ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mwalimu71 on 2021-02-16; known on 2021-02-23; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2022-01-05.
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Politics, US – Trump loses the US Presidential Election in 2020, and then either delays inauguration of his successor beyond the end of January 2020 or enacts a policy/declaration they describe as intended to do so. ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-05; known on 2021-02-01; judged right by MultiplyByZer0 on 2021-04-02.
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I will have been vaccinated for COVID-19 (first dose) by 2021-07-01 ( 90% confidence )
Created by lithp on 2021-03-21; known on 2021-07-01; judged right by lithp on 2021-04-02.
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I will have been vaccinated for COVID-19 (first dose) by 2021-06-01 ( 80% confidence )
Created by lithp on 2021-03-21; known on 2021-06-01; judged right by lithp on 2021-04-02.
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I will have been vaccinated for COVID-19 (first dose) by 2021-05-01 ( 70% confidence )
Created by lithp on 2021-03-21; known on 2021-05-01; judged right by lithp on 2021-04-02.
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Joe Biden is physically present in the Oval Office on one or more days between Jan 20, 2021-Jan 31, 2021 ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-23; known on 2021-02-01; judged right by kuudes on 2021-04-01.
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I will have been vaccinated against COVID-19 before 2021-04-01 ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2020-10-16; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2021-04-01.
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I'll use this more than five times before april 1, 2021 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by vcavallo on 2021-03-18; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by vcavallo on 2021-04-01.
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The Video about Magnus Carlsen retiring from Chess is an April Fool's Joke ( 92% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by sty.silver on 2021-03-31; known on 2021-03-31; judged right by sty.silver on 2021-03-31.
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Hungary will open its borders back ( 10% confidence )
Created by MartaK on 2020-10-30; known on 2021-03-31; judged wrong by MartaK on 2021-03-31.
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150 million first doses of COVID vaccines administered by June 1st (as measured by COVID tracking project: https://covid19-projections.com/infections/us or an alternative if this goes away). ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-06-01; judged right by krazemon on 2021-03-31.
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100 million first doses of COVID vaccines administered in Biden’s first 100 days, i.e. as of April 30th, 2021 (as measured by this tracker: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/ or an alternative if this goes away). ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-04-30; judged right by krazemon on 2021-03-31.
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9 million first doses of COVID administered in NY as of June 1st, 2021 (as measured by COVID tracking project: https://covid19-projections.com/infections/ or an alternative if this goes away). ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-06-01; judged right by krazemon on 2021-03-31.
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Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-05-31; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-03-31.
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Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-07-31; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-03-31.
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Enough doses of COVID vaccines to inoculate 100 million people in the US distributed on or after August 1st (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/). ( 15% confidence )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-08-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-03-31.
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Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-03-31; judged right by krazemon on 2021-03-31.
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[As of March 31st, the number of total estimated cases of COVID-19 in the US will be (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/)] between 129 and 200 million (inclusive). ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-03-31; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-06-23.
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[As of March 31st, the number of total estimated cases of COVID-19 in the US will be (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/)] between 129 and 200 million (inclusive). ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-03-31; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-06-23.
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[As of March 31st, the number of total estimated cases of COVID-19 in the US will be (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/)] between 129 and 200 million (inclusive). ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-03-31; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-06-23.
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[As of March 31st, the number of total estimated cases of COVID-19 in the US will be (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/)] >200 million. ( 1% confidence )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-03-31; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-03-31.
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Ever Given will exit the Suez Canal on or before March 30, 2021 ( 54% confidence; 26 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-03-25; known on 2021-03-30; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-03-31.
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Trump creates “world peace” before leaving office ( 3% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-18; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-03-31.