Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Hardkernel releases a new Odroid SBC before June 30th 2018. (they've been postponing the release of a roadmap since June 2017: https://forum.odroid.com/viewtopic.php?f=55&t=18002&start=250#p200485). ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by ekr on 2017-11-22; known on 2018-06-30; judged right by ekr on 2018-03-23.
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USDJPY goes below 105.24 at any point during March 2018. ( 45% confidence )
Created by Jotto999 on 2018-03-18; known on 2018-04-01; judged right by Jotto999 on 2018-03-22.
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I will not cancel psychotherapy session because of illness ( 70% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2018-03-22; known on 2018-03-22; judged wrong by crabman on 2018-03-22.
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WFIRST is not completely cancelled in 2018. ( 63% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-02-20; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-03-22.
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I will end up as one of the drivers on Tuesday or Wednesday. ( 55% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2018-03-21; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-03-22.
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A candidate supported by United Russia will be chosen as president in 2018 elections ( 93% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2018-03-19; judged right by crabman on 2018-03-20.
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UK will expel Russia's ambassador by 18 March 2018. ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by fkovacs on 2018-03-14; known on 2018-03-19; judged wrong by fkovacs on 2018-03-19.
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Putin will be chosen as president in 2018 #research #politics_russia ( 86% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2018-03-19; judged right by timmartin on 2018-03-19.
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Created by Somni on 2018-01-05; known on 2018-03-06; judged wrong by Somni on 2018-03-16.
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Nintendo announces a new instalment in the Super Smash Bros franchise before the end of 2018. ( 15% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-03; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16.
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[German government formation, 2017:] Any government with any form of support from Left or AfD ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-14; known on 2018-03-24; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-03-15.
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[German government formation, 2017:] Minority government; Left and AfD in opposition ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-14; known on 2018-03-24; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-03-15.
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[German government formation, 2017:] “Jamaica” coalition – Union/FDP/Greens ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-14; known on 2018-03-24; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-03-15.
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[German government formation, 2017:] “German flag” coalition – Union/SPD/FDP (includes minority gov't) ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-14; known on 2018-03-24; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-03-15.
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[German government formation, 2017:] Grand coalition – Union/SPD ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-14; known on 2018-03-24; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-03-15.
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[German government formation, 2017:] A new election is called ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-14; known on 2018-03-24; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-03-15.
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[German government formation, 2017:] Coalition talks still ongoing ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-14; known on 2018-03-24; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-03-15.
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[No new polio cases in the semester ending] 30 June 2018 ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-23; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-03-15.
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I have exercised 50 days this year. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-11; known on 2018-04-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-03-15.
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Getting an abandon on the CS:GO game I was playing at lunch time before a powercut. The score was 14-11. ( 70% confidence )
Created by shardo on 2018-03-15; known on 2018-03-15; judged right by shardo on 2018-03-15.
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Politics, UK – Spokesperson for UK government department states that their official view is that the Russian government was likely involved in attack on former spy by end of 2018-04-08. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-03-11; known on 2018-04-09; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-03-15.
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James Damore running his own business ( 49% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-02; known on 2018-03-03; judged wrong by colejhudson on 2018-03-14.
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In February 2018, Bitcoin prices will trade below $11k. And also rise to within $3800 of the ATH ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Nve on 2018-02-13; known on 2018-03-01; judged wrong by Nve on 2018-03-14.
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Rocket Lab's next launch to be called “Business Time” ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-02-14; known on 2018-06-16; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-03-14.
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[Harvard Law School's 2019 USNWR ranking is] 4 ( 5% confidence )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-02-20; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-03-13.
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[Harvard Law School's 2019 USNWR ranking is] 2 ( 33% confidence )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-02-20; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-03-13.
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[Harvard Law School's 2019 USNWR ranking is] 1 ( 5% confidence )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-02-20; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-03-13.
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[Harvard Law School's 2019 USNWR ranking is] ≥5 ( 1% confidence )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-02-20; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-03-13.
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[Harvard Law School's 2019 USNWR ranking is] 3 ( 56% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-02-20; known on 2018-04-01; judged right by ccokeefe on 2018-03-13.
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When I check my phone, it will still have some battery life left. ( 99% confidence )
Created by OperaPhantom on 2018-03-13; known on 2018-03-13; judged right by OperaPhantom on 2018-03-13.
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No satellites massing less than 500kg to be launched in March. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-06; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-03-12.
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Politics, UK – A power-sharing executive is established in Stormont by the end of the 10th of March 2018. ( 34% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-02-10; known on 2018-03-11; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-03-11.
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I won't make an accurate prediction ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by bmalcolmson on 2018-03-09; known on 2018-03-09; judged wrong by bmalcolmson on 2018-03-09.
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I won't make an accurate prediction ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by bmalcolmson on 2018-03-09; known on 2018-03-09; judged wrong by bmalcolmson on 2018-03-09.
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I won't make an accurate prediction ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by bmalcolmson on 2018-03-09; known on 2018-03-09; judged wrong by bmalcolmson on 2018-03-09.
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My teeth will require minor scraping at the dentist on Friday. ( 87% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-05; known on 2018-03-09; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-03-09.
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My teeth will require major scraping at the dentist on Friday. ( 35% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-05; known on 2018-03-09; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-03-09.
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I will have to schedule another appointment for further treatment following my dentist appointment this Friday. ( 4% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-05; known on 2018-03-09; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-03-09.
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My vision will have further deteriorated, as judged by my optician. ( 96% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-05; known on 2018-03-09; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-03-09.
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I will require new glasses. ( 74% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-05; known on 2018-03-09; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-03-09.
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I will have a haircut on Friday. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-08; known on 2018-03-09; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-03-09.
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I will have a haircut on Friday and be pleased with the result. ( 65% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-08; known on 2018-03-09; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-03-09.
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US unemployment to be higher at end of 2017 than beginning ( 35% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-03-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-03-09.
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Max and I will finish DIR Miniproject “music” on 08.03.2018. ( 35% confidence )
Created by JasperGeh on 2018-03-08; known on 2018-03-08; judged wrong by JasperGeh on 2018-03-08.
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Max allows me a 5 am alarm to wake up Insa. ( 40% confidence )
Created by JasperGeh on 2018-03-07; known on 2018-03-07; judged right by JasperGeh on 2018-03-07.
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I will run >2500 miles in 2017 ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by tstelzig on 2017-01-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by tstelzig on 2018-03-05.
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We will vote to watch Redline on Friday. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-02-26; known on 2018-03-02; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-03-05.
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Politics, US – Deal struck before 5th of March 2018 that curbs family reunification and provides “Dreamers” with protection from deportation or a path to such. ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-02-10; known on 2018-03-05; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-03-05.
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The total number of United States F-1 visas issued in mainland China in Fiscal Year 2016 will be less than in Fiscal Year 2015. ( 62% confidence; 5 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-02-23; known on 2018-03-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2018-03-04.
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The Against Malaria Foundation would have finished raising $150 million in lifetime money raised as of March 1, 2018. ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-28; known on 2018-03-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2018-03-04.