Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 60% | 63% | 75% | 82% | 87% | 93% | |
Sample Size | 1292 | 1606 | 2197 | 2343 | 2286 | 671 | 10395 |
Displaying all predictions made by Cato. Filter by:
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[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.6 ( 87% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2019-12-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-02.
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[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.5 ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2019-12-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-02.
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[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 7 ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2019-12-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-02.
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Collision between Chinese and US naval vessels or military aircraft by 2020-07-31 ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-01; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-09-15.
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Collision between Chinese and Taiwanese naval vessels or military aircraft by 2020-07-31 ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-01; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-09-15.
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[Fighting] Claressa Shields to have a professional MMA bout by 2020-07-31 ( 57% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-01; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 20 ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 19 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 18 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 17 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 16 ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 15 ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 14 ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 13 ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 12 ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 11 ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 10 ( 38% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 9 ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 8 ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 7 ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 6 ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 5 ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 4 ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Fighting] Rico Verhoeven to beat Badr Hari in their December 2019 fight ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-12-22; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-23.
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[Politics] At least one Democrat to withdraw/suspend candidacy by August 2019 EOM ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-08-31; judged right by Cato on 2019-08-16.
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[Politics: According to PredictIt's most recent 10 days of data, the number of Democratic candidates priced above $0.05 is] 7 ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to PredictIt's most recent 10 days of data, the number of Democratic candidates priced above $0.05 is] 6 ( 21% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to PredictIt's most recent 10 days of data, the number of Democratic candidates priced above $0.05 is] 5 ( 26% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to PredictIt's most recent 10 days of data, the number of Democratic candidates priced above $0.05 is] 4 ( 23% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to PredictIt's most recent 10 days of data, the number of Democratic candidates priced above $0.05 is] 3 ( 19% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to PredictIt's most recent 10 days of data, the number of Democratic candidates priced above $0.05 is] 2 ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight's three most recent “A-” or better polls, the number of Democratic candidates averaging above 5% is] 2 ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight's three most recent “A-” or better polls, the number of Democratic candidates averaging above 5% is] 3 ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight's three most recent “A-” or better polls, the number of Democratic candidates averaging above 5% is] 4 ( 34% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight's three most recent “A-” or better polls, the number of Democratic candidates averaging above 5% is] 5 ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight's three most recent “A-” or better polls, the number of Democratic candidates averaging above 5% is] 6 ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight's three most recent “A-” or better polls, the number of Democratic candidates averaging above 5% is] 7 ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics] PredictIt & FiveThirtyEight “A”-grade polls to agree on Dem frontrunner ( 41% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight, Donald Trump's net approval rating to be] lower than -15% ( 23% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight, Donald Trump's net approval rating to be] lower than the current rating of -10.9% ( 63% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight, Donald Trump's net approval rating to be] less than -5% ( 88% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight, Donald Trump's net approval rating to be] negative ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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US Secretary of State to visit Iran by 2020-01-25 ( 13% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-26; known on 2020-01-26; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-31.
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US President to visit Iran by 2020-01-25 ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-26; known on 2020-01-26; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-31.
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[Fighting] Frank Shamrock to be in the UFC Hall of Fame as of 2020-07-23 ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2020-07-24; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-07-27.
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[Fighting] Dana White to be president of the UFC as of 2020-07-23 ( 91% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2020-07-24; judged right by Cato on 2020-07-27.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] the UK to have held a general election ( 19% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-04.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] a second Brexit referendum to be formally announced ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-04.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] a second Brexit referendum to have been held ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-04.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Article 50 to have been extended ( 58% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-11-04.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] “Brexit with a deal” to have happened ( 7% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-04.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] “no-deal Brexit” to have happened ( 18% confidence; 20 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-11-05.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] the UK to not be a member of the European Union ( 27% confidence; 14 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-04.
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[Fighting] Conor McGregor to fight in a discipline other than MMA in 2019 ( 12% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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[Fighting] UFC 245 to occur in 2019 ( 63% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-17.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics] China to win more shooting medals than the USA ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics] Japan to win the most karate medals of any country or Olympic committee ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged wrong by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics] Cuba to win more wrestling medals than the USA ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged wrong by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics] Russia to win the most wrestling medals of any country or Olympic committee ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged wrong by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics] North Korea to win more weightlifting medals than the USA ( 46% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged wrong by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics] France to win the most judo medals of any country or Olympic committee ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged wrong by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics] Japan to win the most judo medals of any country or Olympic committee ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics] China to win the most weightlifting medals of any country or Olympic committee ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics] Japan to win more medals than any other country or Olympic committee ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged wrong by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics] China to win at least one medal in weightlifting ( 96% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics] Taiwan (or “Chinese Taipei”) to win at least one medal ( 89% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics] Taiwan to compete as “Chinese Taipei” ( 91% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜) ( 39% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-16; known on 2020-01-12; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-12.
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[US politics] The 2020 Democratic VP candidate to be one of the participants in the July 2019 debate ( 55% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-09; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Fighting] Chael Sonnen to fight again by 2020-06-27 ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-06-26; known on 2020-06-27; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-27.
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[Fighting] UFC to hold a fight in France by 2020 EOY ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-06-25; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for May 2020 to exceed 110 ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2020-06-25; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-22.
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[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for April 2020 to exceed 110 ( 53% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2020-05-25; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-25.
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[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for March 2020 to exceed 110 ( 56% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2020-04-25; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-23.
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[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for February 2020 to exceed 110 ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2020-03-25; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-27.
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[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for January 2020 to exceed 110 ( 62% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2020-02-25; judged right by Cato on 2020-02-29.
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[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for December 2019 to exceed 110 ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2020-01-25; judged right by Cato on 2020-02-29.
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[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for November 2019 to exceed 110 ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2019-12-25; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-23.
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[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for October 2019 to exceed 110 ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2019-11-25; judged right by Cato on 2019-11-22.
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[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for September 2019 to exceed 110 ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2019-10-25; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-22.
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[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for August 2019 to exceed 110 ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2019-09-25; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-20.
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[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for July 2019 to exceed 110 ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2019-08-25; judged right by Cato on 2019-08-23.
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[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for June 2019 to exceed 110 ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2019-07-25; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-21.
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[Politics] Carrie Lam to resign by 2019 EOY ( 55% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-06-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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[Politics] By 2019-12-14, Hong Kong government to pass law that would allow extradition to mainland PRC ( 35% confidence; 19 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-06-13; known on 2019-12-14; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2019-12-15.
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[Commodities] Iran to be a member of OPEC as of 2019-12-12 ( 72% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-06-11; known on 2019-12-12; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-12.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of July 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] June 2019 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-08-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-08.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of July 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] July 2018 ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-08-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-08-08.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of June 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] June 2018 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-07-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-09.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of June 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] May 2019 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-07-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-09.
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[Fighting] Alexander Gustafsson to fight again by 2020-06-06 ( 22% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-06-05; known on 2020-06-06; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-05.
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[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for May 2019 to exceed 50% ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-07-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-02.
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[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for June 2019 to exceed 50% ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-08-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-05.
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[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for July 2019 to exceed 50% ( 9% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-09-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-05.
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[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for August 2019 to exceed 50% ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-10-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-03.
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[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for September 2019 to exceed 50% ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-11-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-04.
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[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for October 2019 to exceed 50% ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-12-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-03.
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[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for November 2019 to exceed 50% ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2020-01-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-07.
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[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for December 2019 to exceed 50% ( 17% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2020-02-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.
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[Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor to be released, conditional on Canadian government] releasing Meng Wanzhou ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-06-01.