Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 75% | 33% | 64% | 94% | 95% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 4 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 38 | 8 | 84 |
Displaying all predictions made by Dapple. Filter by:
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Scottish National Party to have gained seats in general election ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01.
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[US politics] Andrew Yang to participate in the third Democratic primary debate ( 80% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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If Joe Biden wins the 2020 democratic bid for president then Donald Trump will win the 2020 election. ( 50% confidence; 29 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by jprettner on 2019-06-28; known on 2019-08-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Andrew Yang ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.
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[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Tulsi Gabbard ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.
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[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Kamala Harris ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.
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Democrats will not take the senate in 2018 ( 63% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by SeriousPod on 2018-08-02; known on 2018-11-07; judged right by lukefreeman on 2018-11-07.
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Satoshi Nakamoto will have at one point been the world's richest person by 11:59 pm, December 31st, 2019. ( 24% confidence; 9 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by dchristie on 2018-01-12; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by dchristie on 2020-01-01.
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Trump massive crackdown on comedians. Bill Maher imprisoned(for comedy show) ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-15; known on 2025-01-01.
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US President Zuckerberg ( 3% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-03; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-12-03.
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Reince Priebus (Reinhold Richard Priebus) will not be the White House Chief of Staff before the end of 2017 ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-07-27; known on 2018-01-05; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-07-29.
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USS Gerald R. Ford CVN 78 will spend fewer than 30 days on deployment in 2018 ( 85% confidence )
Created by Dapple on 2017-07-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Dapple on 2019-01-02.
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Ethereum blockchain will fork because of parity multisig hack that happened today before 2017-08-20 ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-19; known on 2017-08-20; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-08-20.
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Politics, UK – Charlie Gard dies before the start of the 9th of August 2017. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-09; known on 2017-08-09; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-07-28.
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Reality Winner gets the death penalty ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-24; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-08.
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Donald Trump would contest in the 2020 elections. ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by DragonGod on 2017-06-16; known on 2020-11-07; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10.
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Trump will not be president at the beginning of 2018. ( 12% confidence; 20 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by burning.harvest on 2017-05-19; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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The bill titled “The El Chapo Act” will be signed into law by Trump ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Dapple on 2017-04-27; known on 2017-10-01; judged wrong by Dapple on 2017-10-01.
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nuclear war by july 7, 2017 ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-06; known on 2017-07-08; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-08.
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The Republicans will use the nuclear option to approve Gorsuch. ( 80% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by SeriousPod on 2017-04-04; known on 2017-04-18; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-04-06.
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Devin Nunes will step down as Intelligence committee chairman OR recuse himself with regards to the Trump Russia investigation before the end of 2017 ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-03-28; known on 2018-01-15; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-04-06.
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The New York Times stops delivering paper newspapers in 2017 ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-27; known on 2018-01-05; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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This year, Predictionbook will switch its scoring to be logarithmic ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Alti Camelus on 2017-03-13; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Dapple on 2018-01-24.
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Kyle Chapman (based stick man) will be convicted on assault charges in 2017 ( 11% confidence )
Created by Dapple on 2017-03-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Dapple on 2018-01-02.
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Kyle Chapman (based stick man) will face prosecution for assault charges in 2017 ( 20% confidence )
Created by Dapple on 2017-03-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Dapple on 2018-01-02.
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Austin Petersen will be the Libertarian Party's nominee for president in 2020 ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Greenham on 2017-02-24; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-12.
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0% corporate tax in US ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-17; known on 2021-12-31; judged wrong by stepan on 2022-01-03.
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Oroville Dam breaks or overflows in 2017. ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-13; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2018-01-02.
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Slack to allow unpaid slacks to view messages older than 10,000 messages old sometime before 2020 ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2017-02-07; known on 2021-01-01.
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Trump will end the year above 35% approval. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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0 US combat deaths, either US or enemy, after Donald Trump gets elected. US at peace with the world ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-28.
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I will vote Democrat for the first time in my life in the 2020 US Presidential Election ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Dapple on 2017-01-05; known on 2020-11-08.
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I will vote Democrat for the first time in my life in the 2024 US Presidential Election ( 26% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Dapple on 2017-01-05; known on 2024-11-08.
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There will be a Republican primary challenger getting >10% of the primary vote in 2020 (conditional on Trump running) ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2020-11-01.
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Republicans will maintain control of the House of Representatives in 2018 elections ( 53% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2018-11-20; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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The U.S. will impose new protectionist tariffs within the first year of Trump's presidency ( 54% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by sjy on 2016-12-26; known on 2018-01-20; judged wrong by sjy on 2018-01-22.
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Contingent on no presidential candidate earning a majority of electoral votes (prediction is null if one does), the House of Representatives will elect Donald Trump ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Dapple on 2016-10-05; known on 2018-01-01.
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Caffeine will not be the primary stimulant (measured by daily users) ( 19% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2016-12-13; known on 2031-12-13.
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Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034 ( 0% confidence; 27 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-10; known on 2034-01-01.
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Trump will nominate Romney ( 33% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by michael149 on 2016-12-02; known on 2016-12-15; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-12-14.
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Senator Elizabeth Warren will enter the Democratic Primary for President in the 2020 election. ( 68% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Faceh on 2016-11-27; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2019-04-10.
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Trump will not be impeached during his first term ( 86% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kjaques on 2016-11-25; known on 2020-11-30; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-08-12.
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The total hate crime incidents as measured by the FBI's Uniform Crime Report will be no more than 125% of their 2015 value at any year during a Trump presidency, conditional on similar reporting methodology. ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2016-11-18; known on 2021-01-02.
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At least one cartoonist arrested for cartoon of President Trump in US ( 19% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-01-01.
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Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency. ( 87% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-20; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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Neither Trump nor any of his officials (Cabinet, etc) will endorse the KKK, Stormfront, or explicit neo-Nazis publicly, refuse to back down, etc, and keep their job. ( 87% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-20.
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Hilary Clinton goes to jail ( 10% confidence; 21 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by cjbeyer on 2016-11-16; known on 2018-06-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-06-16.
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A city of population >50,000 in the United States will ban the sale of all meat products that came from a sentient animal ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Dapple on 2016-11-15; known on 2030-01-01.
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California will secede from the United States before 2021 ( 0% confidence; 34 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-13; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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Politics – Conditional on their loss, Donald Trump concedes within 24 hours of the final count being announced, without legal challenge of the results. ( 56% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2016-10-29; known on 2016-11-12.
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The electors in the Electoral College will give both Trump and Pence >= 270 votes ( 93% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-11; known on 2016-12-20; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-19.
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0-15 faithless electors ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-12-29.
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President Trump Dead/Impeached ( 7% confidence; 21 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2017-11-08; judged wrong by Tenobrus on 2017-11-09.
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US goes to Defcon 1, by 13:00 EST nov 8, 2016 ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-07; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Hillary Clinton to be convicted for an offense directly related to her email controversy. ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Dapple on 2016-10-14; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Dapple on 2018-01-02.
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'President Mike Pence' ( 14% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-10; known on 2024-12-31.
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Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK —Charlie Stross ( 2% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-10-07; known on 2026-10-07.
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Within twenty (20) years there will be an option of listing related or similar predictions on the prediction page (of PredictionBook) by the predictor ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-10-07; known on 2036-10-07; judged right by kuudes on 2017-05-25.
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No nuclear weapon detonated before 2017-06-01 killing >= 1 civilian before 2017-06-01 that we know about ( 87% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-06-01.
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Nuclear weapon used by India or Pakistan on military target, at least 2 casualties ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-30; known on 2016-12-30; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-12-30.
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I will contract Zika virus any time before 2018 ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2016-09-12; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2018-01-01.
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4% of world economy is cryptocurrency governed ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-11; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-01-31.
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Hillary Clinton wins all 112 electoral votes of the Northeast (New England, NY, NJ, DE, PA, MD, DC). ( 42% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2016-09-08; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Legal battles over forehead penises, and the rights of the young rebels who choose to have them, begin. ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-03; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-31.
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I will be single on Sep 1, 2017 ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-02; known on 2017-09-02; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-01.
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Libertarian Party candidate gets into 2020 presidential debates. ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-08-26; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-23.
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Libertarian Party wins presidency in 2020. ( 3% confidence; 20 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-08-26; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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Gary Johnson gets into 2020 presidential debates. ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-08-26; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-09-13.
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Gary Johnson wins 2020 presidential election. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-08-26; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Jill Stein will be President of the United States any time before 2034 ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-08-21; known on 2034-01-01.
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Secretary of Education Sarah Palin ( 6% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-01; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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By 2030, there will be fewer than 3.5 million people employed in the US as truck drivers, as autonomous vehicles penetrate the market. ( 82% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2016-07-26; known on 2030-01-01.
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France holds 'leave EU' referendum ( 19% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2020-07-24; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2020-07-30.
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Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS ( 11% confidence; 10 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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Paul Ryan will be the next Speaker of the House ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-07-14; known on 2017-01-20; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-01-20.
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Merrick Garland will fill Scalia's SCOTUS seat ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-07-14; known on 2017-02-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-02-16.
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Augur (Ethereum prediction market) will launch in 2016 ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Dapple on 2016-07-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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The GOP will win under 370 electoral votes in the 2016 presidential election ( 93% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-13; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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“Battle suits” will be ready for field testing by either US/NATO/China/Russia featuring exoskeleton, display over faceplate, power monitoring, health monitoring, integrating a weapon ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-02-26.
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2nd amendment repealed in the US (or US constitution considered invalid / replaced outright without an equivalent by at least half the area of the current states) ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2066-01-01.
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Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ( 55% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-06-27; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by davatk on 2021-01-16.
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Stein and/or Johnson take more than 1% of the national popular vote. ( 72% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-06-17; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-15.
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Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-11; known on 2056-01-01.
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Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians. http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/ ( 19% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-26; known on 2027-01-01.
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I will be single on Sep 1, 2016 ( 65% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-11; known on 2016-09-02; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-02.
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Ted Cruz will be linked to a sex scandal before year end. ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Utah will go to somebody other than the GOP nominee in 2016. ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-30; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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House of Representatives selects next POTUS. ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-24; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-16.
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In 2019, I’ll be able to get a pizza delivered to my house by a robot. ( 38% confidence; 15 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-20; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-21.
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Gary Johnson to get > 5% of the vote in 2016 ( 40% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-03-11; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Donald Trump will win the Republican nomination ( 77% confidence; 18 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sole21000 on 2016-03-09; known on 2016-07-22; judged right by elephantower on 2016-07-20.
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US mandates backdoors in all crypto used on continental US ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.
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Obama will successfully appoint Scalia's appointment. ( 43% confidence; 33 wagers; 22 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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Donald Trump will shave his head any time before the general election (no GOP nomination needed) ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-01; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-11-08.
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NYSE:BG will drop below $73.00 at any point by September 15, 2015 ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Dapple on 2015-08-14; known on 2015-09-15; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-08-20.
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I successfully arbitrage PredictIt with >10% pre-tax ROI at the end of the Republican National Convention ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Dapple on 2015-08-12; known on 2016-07-21; judged right by Dapple on 2016-07-13.
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Clinton to be Democratic nominee ( 84% confidence; 13 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-10; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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John Kerry to run for President in 2016 ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-26; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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SpaceX will launch more than 2 rockets this year. ( 71% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kiba on 2013-05-21; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by kiba on 2013-12-11.
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One of the three things will lead to Udyr being Flavor of the Month: Ghost usage in the jungle, AS item buffs such as Wit's End and the gold efficiency of tank items. (Sytha) Conditioning on these things all still holding true before the deadline is up ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by meisnewbie on 2013-05-20; known on 2013-08-20; judged wrong by meisnewbie on 2013-08-24.