Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Sets, Logic, and Maths for Computing will arrive on or before 04/05/2012. ( 33% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-08; known on 2012-04-06; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-24.
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I will have nothing for breakfast, mcdonalds for lunch and chickens wings for dinner ( 80% confidence )
Created by williamycai on 2012-03-22; known on 2012-03-23; judged wrong by williamycai on 2012-03-23.
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Ben won't show up to the tutorial today (23/3/12) ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JeffreyTse on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-23; judged right by JeffreyTse on 2012-03-23.
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The Hunger Games film will not fail (>= 60% on Rotten Tomatoes). ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Christopher on 2012-01-29; known on 2012-03-24; judged right by Christopher on 2012-03-23.
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I will record a sub 20 minute time in any ABC bi that I do this season – http://goo.gl/BCmJt ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-03-30; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-23.
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I will still be using the RescueTime tracking tool after the 14 day trial is over. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-08; known on 2012-03-22; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-23.
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HP MoR: Humans can be irrevocably transformed into House-Elves, and this is revealed in chapter 80. ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-19; known on 2012-03-22; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-03-23.
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http://www.humanbirdwings.net/ will turn out to be a hoax. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by iemfi on 2012-03-21; known on 2012-04-21; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-03-22.
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The hunger games will not meet wife's expectations and will disappoint her ( 20% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by williamycai on 2012-03-19; known on 2012-03-22; judged right by williamycai on 2012-03-22.
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I will read Deus Ex: Icarus Effect in less than 1 month from now. ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-05; known on 2012-04-05; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-21.
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Mitt Romney secures GOP nomination within 2 weeks after Super Tuesday. ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by smijer on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-03-20; judged wrong by smijer on 2012-03-21.
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Peyton Manning will sign with the Redskins ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-07; known on 2012-08-16; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-03-20.
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Nobody will have competed all of the requirements for Tuesday's class ( 50% confidence )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-18; known on 2012-03-20; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-20.
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MoR: ch 78 will mention Amanda Knox ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-20; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-03-20.
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Apple will announce a dividend on their March 19, 2012 conference call ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-03-19; known on 2012-03-20; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-03-19.
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There will be 20 or more people at tonight's compDesGrp session ( 50% confidence )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-19; known on 2012-03-19; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-19.
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I will complete the advanced revit modelling assessment 1 week before the due date. Due 24/3/2012 but I'll finish before the 18th. ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by williamycai on 2012-03-07; known on 2012-03-19; judged wrong by williamycai on 2012-03-19.
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I will finish Capes by Thursday 15 March 2012 ( 75% confidence )
Created by richardw on 2012-03-04; known on 2012-03-15; judged right by richardw on 2012-03-18.
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XiXiDu will not comment or post to LW for 5 years, round two. ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2012-03-16; known on 2017-03-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-03-16.
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XiXiDu will not post or comment on LW for one year. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by papermachine on 2012-03-16; known on 2013-03-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-03-16.
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I will finish reading any of my books to completion ( 50% confidence )
Created by Jach on 2012-02-09; known on 2012-03-16; judged wrong by Jach on 2012-03-16.
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HP MoR: HPMOR will update at least twice in 2012 ( 95% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Isaac on 2012-03-16.
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I will bench press my own bodyweight or more for 5 sets of 5 reps with 1 minute rests before June 2012. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-06-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-16.
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HP MoR: “A new chapter of HP:MoR, which would be more than two pages in length, will be posted” —Bugmaster ( 97% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-03-15.
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I will be allowed to take the internal exams. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-18; known on 2012-03-15; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-03-15.
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This magic the gathering ebay auction will sell for more than $190 (pre-shipping): http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=170797982659#ht_500wt_1413 ( 85% confidence )
Created by gsaines on 2012-03-14; known on 2012-03-15; judged right by gsaines on 2012-03-15.
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Grognor (http://lesswrong.com/user/Grognor) will reach 1000 karma on LessWrong by September 27, 2012, one year after his first comment. ( 87% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-01-04; known on 2012-09-27; judged right by Grognor on 2012-03-13.
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90% of us will be drunk on the first night of camp ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by dkim126 on 2012-03-08; known on 2012-03-09; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-13.
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The week end class trip won't happen due to rain ( 29% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by wajdiatwah on 2012-03-06; known on 2012-03-09; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-13.
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I will score above 100 in at least one of the two “IQ tests” I take today. (iqout.com and iqtest.dk) ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-12; known on 2012-03-12; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-03-12.
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I will not consider any of the next four chapters of HPMR to be as good as chapter 74. ( 64% confidence; 6 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-29; known on 2012-03-15; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-03-12.
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CDS on Greek Debt will be triggered by May 1 (about 6 weeks) ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-05; known on 2012-05-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-03-11.
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I will read through Alicorn's Living Luminously sequence by the end of March. Any skimming not made up for will result as a failure. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Christopher on 2012-03-06; known on 2012-04-01; judged right by Christopher on 2012-03-10.
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Zeo vitamin D morning: Week 1 & 2: placebo then vitamin D ( 65% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-09; known on 2012-03-09; judged right by gwern on 2012-03-09.
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There will be a general strike in Spain on 2012 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by modulus on 2012-01-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by modulus on 2012-03-09.
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If XiXiDu has taken a typical IQ test in the last 10 years or takes one this year, he will score at least 115. ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by muflax on 2012-03-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-03-08.
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Tutor will post up choice results and I will get my choice of selected reading; delirious new york, for the subjection “the city” ( 20% confidence )
Created by williamycai on 2012-03-07; known on 2012-03-08; judged right by williamycai on 2012-03-08.
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Part 2 of Shikamaru vs the Logical Fallacies to be ready within 2 months ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-08; known on 2012-03-08; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-08.
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iPad 3 will have a quad-core CPU ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-14; known on 2012-03-08; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-03-07.
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Next iPad refresh (“iPad 3” or similar) will have a model with a >= 240 dpi primary display ( 85% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-10; known on 2012-04-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-03-07.
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I will finish the translation of the first 13 chapters of “Facing the Singularity” until the end of february. ( 81% confidence )
Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-03; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2012-03-06.
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Votes in Russian legislative elections will be re-counted (due to vote fraud and other irregularities). ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Serge on 2011-12-06; known on 2012-03-06; judged wrong by Serge on 2012-03-06.
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GJP: #1075 Will a run-off be required in the 2012 Russian presidential election? ( 35% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-31; known on 2012-03-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-06.
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[Russia] Vladimir Putin will receive at least 60% of the vote (official election results). ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2012-03-02; known on 2012-03-09; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-03-05.
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I will be able to complete 100 good-form push ups in 6 weeks' time following the program at hundredpushups.com. ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by roshni on 2011-11-23; known on 2012-01-04; judged wrong by roshni on 2012-03-05.
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My guinea pig will learn to move in a circle on command in 2 months time. ( 37% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by roshni on 2011-11-23; known on 2012-01-30; judged wrong by roshni on 2012-03-05.
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Chrome will be ahead of Internet Explorer (all versions) in the StatCounter daily Global Stats for next Sunday. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by faws on 2012-02-27; known on 2012-03-05; judged wrong by faws on 2012-03-05.
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UCSB Gauchos men's basketball team will win 20 or more games in the 2011 – 2012 regular season. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by dakyne on 2011-07-14; known on 2012-03-04; judged wrong by dakyne on 2012-03-05.
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GJP: #1044 Will the United Kingdom's Tehran embassy officially reopen by 29 February 2012? ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-12; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-03-05.
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GJP: #1043 Will Lucas Papademos resign, lose re-election/confidence vote, or vacate the office of Prime Minister of Greece before 1 March 2012? ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-12; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-03-05.