Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 26% | 57% | 65% | 76% | 80% | 86% | |
Sample Size | 31 | 23 | 31 | 33 | 89 | 37 | 244 |
Displaying all predictions made by jesselevine. Filter by:
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[US politics] Andrew Yang to participate in the fifth Democratic primary debate (November 2019) ( 57% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-26; known on 2019-11-21; judged right by Cato on 2019-11-21.
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Climate change news related psychological disorders (including stress and anxiety induced by news) spawns a new branch of psychiatry ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by predoindk on 2019-08-23; known on 2020-08-16; judged wrong by jamesrom on 2020-08-17.
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The heat death of the universe ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by hserl on 2019-07-28; known on 2100-07-16.
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If Joe Biden wins the 2020 democratic bid for president then Donald Trump will win the 2020 election. ( 50% confidence; 29 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by jprettner on 2019-06-28; known on 2019-08-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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359 – 179 Clinton Trump Electoral Result ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-10-22; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Hillary Clinton will win at least 320 electoral votes in the 2016 Presidential Election ( 67% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-10-22; known on 2016-12-22; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
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'President Mike Pence' ( 14% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-10; known on 2024-12-31.
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Hillary next US president ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by penten on 2016-09-29; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Hillary Clinton is forced (called) to testify about private email server before the general election. ( 27% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-05-05; known on 2016-11-09.
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California will vote “yes” on Proposition 64 in the 2016 elections, legalizing marijuana. ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-06-29; known on 2016-11-10; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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The Bitcoin reward halvening will increase its value by over 25% versus USD within a month of the event. ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-07-08; known on 2016-08-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-08-12.
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Next Apple iPhone (7, not SE) excludes 3.5mm headphone jack. ( 60% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-25; known on 2016-08-16; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-09-07.
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Donald J Trump will pick Monica Lewinsky as his running mate. ( 3% confidence; 15 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-02; known on 2016-07-19; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-03.
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Trump VP pick is Mike Pence ( 38% confidence; 10 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2016-09-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Trump pick for VP is Marco Rubio ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Trump pick for VP is Ben Carson ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-15.
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Prime minister Boris Johnson ( 37% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-24; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2019-08-31.
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The US dollar to crash, and loose 50%, or more of it's value by 2026 ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sdr on 2016-05-14; known on 2026-01-01.
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All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-07; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-01-01.
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Sanders to upset Clinton in the Indiana primary ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-05-03; known on 2016-05-04; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-04.
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Trump wins Indiana ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-02; known on 2016-05-05; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-05-04.
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Either mean, median or mode truck drivers in either globally or US will make <= .027 BTC/hr or equivalent ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-26; known on 2031-04-26.
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Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians. http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/ ( 19% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-26; known on 2027-01-01.
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More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles. ( 21% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-26; known on 2024-12-31.
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In 10 years, most computers and keyboards will exclude the “PAUSE” key ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-26; known on 2026-04-26.
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Cruz will lose Indiana AND Kasich will lose New Mexico and Oregon ( 50% confidence )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-26; known on 2016-05-03; judged right by jesselevine on 2016-06-01.
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Paul Ryan faces the democratic nominee in the 2016 US presidential election. ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-20; known on 2016-07-20; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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“President HRC will face an attempt by a Republican Congress to cut her pay.” ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-19; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by NickN on 2020-08-21.
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Civil war in Saudi Arabia ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-15; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-01-31.
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2016 New York Democratic Primary isn't a blowout (i.e. margin of victory is < 15%) ( 73% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-04-14; known on 2016-04-21; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-04-21.
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Republican candidate loses with >191 votes. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-11; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Republican candidate loses general election with 191 votes. ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-11; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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UK Police will have the ability to scan people's faces from their cars as they drive past, as they do with License plates ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-06; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2018-07-10.
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Donald Trumps Wins New York Republican Primary 2016 ( 96% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-05; known on 2016-04-20; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-20.
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Hillary Clinton Wins New York Democratic Primary 2016 ( 71% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-05; known on 2016-04-20; judged right by jesselevine on 2016-04-20.
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Ted Cruz will be linked to a sex scandal before year end. ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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It will be exposed that a current presidential candidate was involved in a sex scandal by year end. ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Osuniev on 2016-11-21.
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A terrorist incident involving the death of 1 or more Americans occurs before year end on American soil (excludes perpetrators). ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-01; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-13.
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SpaceX to successfully land the first stage on a droneship in the CRS-8 launch. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-04-01; known on 2016-04-25; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-04-08.
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Syrian government will take Raqqa from Islamic State this year. ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-27; known on 2016-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-12-26.
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Tablet market continues to decline for at least 2 of the next 4 fiscal quarters. ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-25; known on 2017-03-25.
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A major fast food restaurant, or a 3rd-party company attempts drone delivery within 5 years. (Judgment right if available in more than one area) ( 75% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-25; known on 2021-03-25.
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Apple makes significant changes to display technology of future iPhone (i.e. OLED, extends to edge of phone, different glass, Tupac hologram capability) ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-25; known on 2016-06-16; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-09-08.
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Next MacBook Pro release excludes 3.5mm headphone jack or becomes incorporated in a different IO port. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-25; known on 2016-06-16; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2019-08-01.
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House of Representatives selects next POTUS. ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-24; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-16.
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2017 US Congress SENATE to be controlled by democrats. ( 44% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-23; known on 2016-11-13; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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2017 US Congress HOUSE to be controlled by republicans. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-23; known on 2016-11-13; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Third party candidate gets more votes than Trump. ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-22; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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Martin Shkreli convicted of a US crime before 2018. ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-17; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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Is Any one try online class with www.facetofacestudy.com ?? ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by facetofacestudy on 2016-03-16; known on 2016-03-23; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-03-28.
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PredictionBook fails to recognize the major, ongoing technical issues with its site and will not change the website for at least a year. ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-16; known on 2017-03-16; judged right by elephantower on 2017-03-21.
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Donald Trump sweeps the table tonight (Tuesday 3-15) ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-15; known on 2016-03-16; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-03-17.
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Bernie Sanders sweeps the table tonight (Tuesday 3-15) ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-15; known on 2016-03-16; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-03-16.
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Brock Osweiler is out of NFL within 7 years ( 7% confidence )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-13; known on 2023-03-13.
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I will not get SJS from modafinil ( 95% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RoryS on 2016-03-10; known on 2017-10-03; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-22.
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Obama leaves the White House with an approval rating of 55 or higher. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-10; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2017-02-02.
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Obama leaves the White House with an approval rating of 60 or higher. ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-10; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by prtlmpf on 2017-07-12.
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Barack Obama leaves the White House with an approval rating ≥ 50. (Favorable/Unfavorable) ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-10; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Donald Trump will win the Republican nomination ( 77% confidence; 18 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sole21000 on 2016-03-09; known on 2016-07-22; judged right by elephantower on 2016-07-20.
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Romney is GOP nominee. ( 2% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-08; known on 2016-11-16; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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Romney runs third party. ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-08; known on 2016-11-16; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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Bitcoin price reaches $500 before June 2016 (1 BTC ≥ 500 USD) ( 41% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-22; known on 2016-06-01; judged right by jesselevine on 2016-06-01.
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>0 serotonergic drugs withdrawn from US market, OR loses >0 of its FDA approved indication (before 2020) ( 18% confidence )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-08; known on 2020-01-01.
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Boko Haram will be defeated this year. ( 44% confidence; 5 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-06; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-12-25.
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North American oil industry will collapse. Rig count will fall to zero. ( 7% confidence; 29 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-04; known on 2016-09-25; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-25.
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US mandates backdoors in all crypto used on continental US ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.
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Bernie will drop out before New York primary. ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-04-19; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-04-19.
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Bernie will drop out before Ohio & Florida primaries. ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-03-16; judged wrong by Temeraire on 2016-03-16.
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Guantanamo Bay detention facility to close before year end. ( 18% confidence; 12 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-23; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-31.
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Britain separates from the EU (prediction based on the upcoming vote) ( 49% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-22; known on 2016-06-24.
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Largest bitcoin exchange by volume over dec 2016 will be a chinese one / btcCNY* ( 96% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-02-23; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.
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@realDonaldTrump will be suspended from Twitter for a week or longer before 2017 ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-22; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-31.
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One or more current SSRI or SNRI (includes newer generation serotonergics like Viibrid) becomes under investigation by FDA for misrepresentation of clinical trial results before 2020. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-22; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-04-21.
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Destin Sandlin (host of Smarter Every Day) hired by NASA ( 10% confidence )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-22; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2019-08-01.
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Kim Jung Un ousted, assassinated, or somehow loses power of North Korea, either internally or from some international influence before year end. ( 9% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-22; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Ceasefire, “truce”, OR no-fly zone imposed in full or in part, in or within an area in Syria or Iraq before April 1, 2016 ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-22; known on 2016-04-01; judged right by jesselevine on 2016-02-27.
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I will not have eaten any meat intentionally for the next 30 years, starting now ( 29% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by arpanagarawal on 2016-02-21; known on 2046-02-21; judged wrong by Sahil on 2019-04-25.
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Michael Bloomberg wins the 2016 presidential election. ( 1% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-21; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Michael Bloomberg to enter the 2016 US presidential election as a candidate. ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-21; known on 2016-04-21; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-03-08.
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Bernie Sanders will run as a third party/independent if he does not win the Democratic Nomination. ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Faceh on 2016-02-20; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by Faceh on 2016-07-12.
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Zika will be found not to be the (sole, proximate) cause of microencephaly for the recent cases in Brazil ( 22% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-02-17; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2021-01-01.
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The price of a US postage stamp (1-ounce letter) will not increase within the next year. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-17; known on 2017-02-17; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-02-18.
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No single GOP candidate will get >50% of delegates, and a brokered convention will ensue. ( 29% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-17; known on 2016-06-16; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-06-16.
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Another supreme court justice will die during Obama's presidency. ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-17; known on 2017-01-20; judged wrong by Faceh on 2017-01-20.
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President Bernie Sanders Assassinated ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-02-16; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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Obama will successfully appoint Scalia's appointment. ( 43% confidence; 33 wagers; 22 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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Independent of the next elected president of the United States, there will not exist a wall along the 1,954 mile border shared with Mexico within 8 years of inauguration. ( 74% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-13; known on 2025-01-20.
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US will not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers. (I assume this means 100 US deaths in 2016) ( 87% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Temeraire on 2016-02-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Temeraire on 2017-01-01.
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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2017 ( 9% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2018-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-06-01.
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MDMA-mediated psychotherapy receives FDA approval in the next five years. ( 11% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-03; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-12.
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The FBI will recommend an indictment of Hillary Clinton before the 2016 general election ( 28% confidence; 19 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-30; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-05.
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2016 North Korea’s government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt. ( 88% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-26; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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China will fall into disorder and civil war by the end of 2017 ( 6% confidence; 21 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by chinawillfall on 2016-01-13; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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Indonesia to recognize same sex marriage before January 1, 2017 ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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Hillary Clinton will be elected president. ( 61% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by taylorcp on 2016-01-02; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Donald Trump to be the next US President. ( 26% confidence; 73 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-30; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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Brexit: UK will vote to leave the EU in the referendum. ( 39% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-11; known on 2017-11-25; judged right by mortehu on 2016-06-25.
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I meet my goals by Friday ( 40% confidence )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-09-14; known on 2015-09-18.
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Bernie Sanders is the next US President elect ( 12% confidence; 30 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-09-03; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by Afforess on 2016-10-06.
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The Renminbi will eclipse the US dollar as Reserve Currency in 2022. Central banks will hold their reserves in renminbi instead of the USD as they currently do. The USD will be No2 instead of No1. The IMF will be the source of data. ( 15% confidence; 14 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-17; known on 2022-05-28; judged wrong by amadeu on 2022-05-26.