Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 58% | 60% | 85% | 93% | 100% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 142 | 326 | 108 | 67 | 74 | 3 | 720 |
Displaying all predictions made by RandomThinker. Filter by:
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NFL 2012: Patriots will win AFC East ( 75% confidence )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-02-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-16.
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NFL 2012: Texans will win AFC South ( 70% confidence )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-02-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-16.
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NFL 2012: Steelers will win AFC North ( 60% confidence )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-02-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-02-25.
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NFL 2012: 49ers will win NFC West ( 70% confidence )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-02-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-02-25.
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NFL 2012: Cowboys will win NFC East ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-02-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-12-31.
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NFL 2012: Falcons will win NFC South ( 55% confidence )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-02-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-02-25.
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NFL 2012: Packers will win NFC North division ( 65% confidence )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-02-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-16.
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Ron Paul won't have significant speaking role in 2012 Republican convention ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-08-27.
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Romney will have raised more cash than Obama for 2012 election ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-01-03.
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There won't be a significant automobile virus sighting through end of 2016 ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-31.
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Best Buy will be taken private before December 2013 ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.
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Virginia Rometty, IBM CEO, still won't be Augusta National golf course member by Jan, 2016 ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-10.
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Akin will quit before 1st September 2012 ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2012-09-01; judged wrong by tedks on 2012-09-03.
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North Korea will have a working nuclear power plant by end of 2013. ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2014-07-09.
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Apple and Samsung won't settle before the jury verdict ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2012-09-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-08-25.
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Current Syrian regime to fall by January 1, 2013 ( 35% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2013-01-01.
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Assuming Assange stays there, British enforcement agents will not enter Ecuador embassy without Ecuadoran consent before end of 2013 ( 66% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-16; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-31.
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For the year of 2020, natural gas will account for a higher percentage of US energy consumption than wind and solar power combined. ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-18; known on 2021-01-01.
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George R. R. Martin's The Winds of Winter will not be released before 2016 ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Lyaer on 2012-08-18; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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Apple won't buy TiVo before end of 2013 ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-17; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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Assuming Romney doesn't win, Paul Ryan will be one of the top 3 candidates in Republican primary for president in 2016 ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-12; known on 2016-03-01; judged wrong by Temeraire on 2016-02-12.
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Romney will eventually release more tax returns, before 2012 election ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-16; known on 2012-11-30; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-09-22.
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Bill Gates won't develop an affordable water-less toilet for the third world by 2020 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-15; known on 2020-12-31.
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Fareed Zakaria: Indonesia will win more gold medals than Brazil in 2040 ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-15; known on 2040-12-31.
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Fareed Zakaria: US will be #1 in gold medals in 2040 ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-15; known on 2040-12-31.
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China will win more gold medals than India in 2040 ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-15; known on 2040-12-31.
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Linda McMahon (wife of wrestling CEO) won't win seat as Connecticut senator ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-15; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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North and South Korea will reunify by 2025 ( 20% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-15; known on 2025-12-31.
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An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years. ( 8% confidence; 17 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-14; known on 2032-11-10.
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There will be federal laws or regulations on high speed trading in the U.S. by end of 2017 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-14; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Google will write off more than $2b for Motorola purchase over the next 2 years. ( 55% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-13; known on 2014-08-13; judged right by RandomThinker on 2014-01-30.
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Romney-Ryan won't win Wisconsin in 2012 ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-13; known on 2012-11-15; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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Angela Merkel will be reelected chancellor in 2013 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by dhoe on 2012-08-12; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by dhoe on 2013-12-16.
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There'll be a hollywood movie featuring mesh worm robot adversaries by end of 2017 ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-11; known on 2017-12-31.
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Mike Brown will be fired as coach of Lakers before 2014 NBA season ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-10; known on 2014-11-15; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-09.
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Kobe will average less than 24 pts a game in 2012-13 NBA season ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-10; known on 2013-06-15; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-06-15.
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There'll be a big summer shark scare story within the next 4 years ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-06; known on 2016-12-31.
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Health care spending in the US will exceed 19% of GDP sometime before 2015. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-06; known on 2015-01-02; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-06.
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EUR/USD on or below 1.23 on 2012-08-07 12:00 UTC. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by clemux on 2012-08-06; known on 2012-08-07; judged wrong by clemux on 2012-08-07.
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By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone. ( 53% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-04; known on 2022-08-04; judged right by atzeje on 2022-05-23.
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The NY Jets will play in the Super Bowl in 2013 ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by fistpo on 2012-08-04; known on 2013-01-31; judged wrong by fistpo on 2013-01-31.
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Steve Nash will retire by the beginning of the 2013-14 season. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by fistpo on 2012-08-03; known on 2013-10-31; judged wrong by fistpo on 2013-10-31.
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By the end of 2015, Windows Phone 8 (including successors based on it) will not have as much as 10% of market share, measured as either number of active phones or phones+tablets. ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by scav on 2012-08-02; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-31.
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BRK Nets will not win two playoff rounds in 2013 ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by fistpo on 2012-08-02; known on 2013-06-01; judged right by fistpo on 2013-06-01.
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First directly brain-controlled internet post will be announced within the next 5 years. ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-08-01; known on 2018-01-01.
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In the 2012 election, Obama will pick up at least one state he didn't win in 2008. ( 30% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-08-01; known on 2012-11-10; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-11-07.
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Anne Romney's horse will place in 2012 Olympics dressage competition. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-07-28; known on 2012-01-08; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-08-13.
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In 2032, solar power will be at least 150% of the second highest energy source of us consumption (in kwh). ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2012-07-28; known on 2032-01-01.
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Tony Blair will pick a fight over some public issue with Bill Clinton in the next 2 years ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2014-07-26; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2014-07-27.
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Gabby Giffords (the congresswoman who was shot in 2011) will be attacked in a political ad in 2012 ( 35% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-08.
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Mitt Romney will not pick a minority or woman or non-Christian or atheist or unmarried or gay person as VP (i.e. no surprises!) ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by RobertLumley on 2012-08-11.
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No new federal gun laws will be passed in 2012 as a result of the Colorado shooting ( 75% confidence; 7 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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Kristin Stewart and Robert Pattinson will break up before end of 2012 ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.
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Lebron will continue to hog ball control in the 2012 olympics (measured by Chris Paul won't have more than 1 assist / per game more than Lebron) ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2012-09-15; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-08-13.
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Michael Phelps will not solely win the most gold medals in 2012 (he may tie, but won't win the most outright). ( 55% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2012-09-15; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-08-13.
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Missy Franklin will win 4 or more gold medals ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2012-09-15; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-08-06.
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Usain Bolt won't win 100m gold medal in 2012 ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2012-09-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-08-06.
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Instagram will peak at < 240m users in the next 4 years ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2016-07-26; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-18.
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3d movie fad is over in US (measured by 2012 3D box office dropping another 20% from 2011) ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2013-04-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-03-22.
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Total Recall (2012) will do better than Bourne Legacy (2012) (measured by box office receipts of the first 4 wks) ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2012-09-21; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-09-21.
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The drought will change opinions re: climate change in the U.S. (measured by 2013 Gallup poll vs. 2012 Gallup poll > +3%) ( 65% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-06-02.
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Google won't offer high speed internet in more than 3 cities by Jan 1 2016 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-07.
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Ichiro will have a higher batting average for the Yankees (including playoffs) for the rest of the year than he did with Seattle ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-24; known on 2012-11-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-10-20.
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Marissa Meyer will quit as Yahoo's CEO in less than 4 years ( 47% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-24; known on 2016-07-24; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-24.
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US basketball team will beat Spain by less than 12 points tonight ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-24; known on 2012-07-26; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-07-25.
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Rebekah Brooks will be convicted, while Andy Coulson will go free in the News Corp scandal ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-24; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2014-07-04.
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Penn State won't put back up Joe Paterno's statue for the next 15 years. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-23; known on 2027-07-23.
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US govt won't file criminal charges against a C-level executive of an American bank in America for the next 10 years ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-23; known on 2022-07-23.
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DOJ won't file criminal charges against a C-level executive of an American bank in America based on LIBOR scandal. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-23; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-02-24.
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Microsoft's stock will go down between July 18, 2012 and the first of a) when Mark Penn leaves the company or Microsoft announces he's leaving and b) one year later. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by aaronsw on 2012-07-19; known on 2013-07-18; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-20.
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Dwight Howard will go to New Jersey Nets ( 45% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-11; known on 2012-09-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-08-11.
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Pope Benedict XVI will be dead before November, 2012. ( 9% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-08; known on 2012-11-01; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-10-31.
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Amazon won't launch it's own smart phone by end of 2013 ( 70% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-07; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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Facebook ($FB) will buy RIM ($RIMM) ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by sucrenoir on 2012-07-02; known on 2013-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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AAPL share prices will reach $700 before December 2013 ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sucrenoir on 2012-07-02; known on 2013-01-31; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2013-06-19.
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Assuming Obama wins, the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy will continue in 2013 ( 56% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-01; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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Turkey will invade Syria ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by modulus on 2012-06-24; known on 2012-07-15; judged wrong by modulus on 2012-07-15.
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Ecuador will accept Julian Assange for asylum before 2014 ( 39% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-06-20; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-08-16.
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Miami Heat will win game 4 of the NBA finals ( 65% confidence )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-06-19; known on 2012-06-20; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-06-20.
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Sky City will take more than 90 days of construction time to build or will not be built at all in the next 2 years. ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-06-19; known on 2014-06-19; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
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Syriza won't win the most votes (out of all the parties) in the Greek election ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-06-17; known on 2012-06-19; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-06-18.
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Morsi will win Egypt's election ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-06-16; known on 2012-06-19; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-06-24.
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After the next German Federal Election, the Chancellor will be from the Social Democrat Party. ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-13; known on 2014-02-01; judged wrong by on 2014-02-01.
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The Democratic Candidate for President will win Arizona in 2012. ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-13; known on 2012-12-01; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-11-07.
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The Republican Candidate for President will win Arizona in 2012. ( 80% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-13; known on 2012-12-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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Usain Bolt breaks previous 100m world record during 2012 Olympics ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by chimpsky on 2012-06-12; known on 2012-08-05; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-08-13.
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Zynga will fall below $3 before June 1, 2013 ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-06-12; known on 2013-06-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26.
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Facebook will be worth $100 Billion. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by asdasdqwe on 2012-06-11; known on 2013-06-11; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-06-15.
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Greece will exit the euro within the next 2 months ( 21% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Michael Stevens on 2012-06-11; known on 2012-08-11; judged wrong by Michael Stevens on 2012-08-11.
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Kevin Garnett will retire before the beginning of 2012-2013 season ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-06-10; known on 2012-11-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-07-06.
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F. Castro outlives Thatcher ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by chimpsky on 2012-06-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-04-08.
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Spain will officially seek a EU bailout this weekend ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-06-08; known on 2012-06-11; judged right by chimpsky on 2012-06-09.
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Scotland will vote in favour of independence in the 2014 referendum ( 28% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by chimpsky on 2012-06-07; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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The United States reestablishes its embassy in Tehran by the end of 2012 ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by chimpsky on 2012-06-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-01-03.
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Manmohan Singh will be reelected as prime minister of India in 2014 ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by chimpsky on 2012-06-07; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.
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Mubarak will have passed away by mid 2013 ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-06-07; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by holycow81 on 2013-06-09.
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The “Rapture” will not occur by the end of 2050. ( 99% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by davidiach on 2012-06-06; known on 2050-12-31.
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Facebook shares will not pass 100$ per share by the end of 2012. ( 87% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidiach on 2012-06-06; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.
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iPad Mini will launch in September 2012 — Brian White, Topeka Capital Markets ( 35% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-06-04; known on 2012-10-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-10-09.
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iPhone 5 will launch in September of 2012 — Brian White, Topeka Capital Market ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-06-04; known on 2012-10-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-09-13.