Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 100% | 60% | 33% | 100% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 15 |
Displaying all predictions made by woodse. Filter by:
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A god will give me absolute unambiguous proof of his existence to me by tomorrow at noon. ( 0% confidence )
Created by woodse on 2015-01-16; known on 2015-01-16; judged wrong by woodse on 2015-01-16.
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by 2017 at least 8 states will have legalized recreational use of marijuana. ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by woodse on 2015-01-16; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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recreational use of marijuana will be legalized in arizona by 2017 ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by woodse on 2015-01-16; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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That my wife will give birth to a baby girl ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by woodse on 2015-01-16; known on 2015-05-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-04.
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That Jayson will be employed in Az for his next job. ( 60% confidence )
Created by woodse on 2015-01-16; known on 2015-04-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-04.
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I will maintain my GPA above a 3.6 overall average this semester. ( 90% confidence )
Created by woodse on 2015-01-15; known on 2015-05-20.
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Mitt Romney will run for president again in 2016. ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by woodse on 2015-01-15; known on 2016-10-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-10-01.
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At least 10% of packages in any major country delivered autonomously (last kilometer) in 2019. ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by brandyn on 2015-01-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by brandyn on 2020-01-01.
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North Korea’s government will not collapse (whether due to revolt/civil war, or war with another country) before Dec 31, 2015. ( 93% confidence; 20 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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In 2015 there will not be any terrorist attacks in the US that kill more than 40 people. ( 85% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01.
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Vladimir Putin will be president of Russia as of 1st January 2016 ( 91% confidence; 18 wagers )
Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by btrettel on 2016-01-01.
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The top prediction (the first listed on the homepage) on 16th January won't have been decided yet ( 90% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-19; known on 2015-01-16; judged right by woodse on 2015-01-16.
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Venezuela will undergo sovereign default before 2016. ( 8% confidence; 60 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-09-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-02.
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Ebola virus will be controlled in 6 months ( 52% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-15; known on 2015-02-15; judged right by kuudes on 2015-02-19.
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I'll still be alive at the end of 2014 ( 97% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Osuniev on 2014-08-03; known on 2015-01-16; judged right by woodse on 2015-01-16.
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Within five years, Pope Francis (or a successor) makes a comment in an official or unofficial capacity that there is no literal hell. ( 11% confidence; 21 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by adbge on 2014-01-07; known on 2019-01-07; judged right by Osuniev on 2019-01-27.