Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 63% | 50% | 88% | 100% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 2 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 35 |
Displaying all predictions made by dusk. Filter by:
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“In 2022 more than 60% of US engineering undergraduate seniors will have tried a legal brain enhancing supplemental substance.” (Kevin Fischer XFF 2012) [excluding Caffeine] ( 50% confidence; 11 comments )
Created by dusk on 2013-03-05; known on 2022-12-31; judged unknown by Baeboo on 2020-07-15.
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Brayden will get accepted into YC at today's interview. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by dusk on 2015-08-25; known on 2015-08-27; judged wrong by dusk on 2015-08-26.
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31 or more people will attend the SF EA dinner conspiracy event (https://www.facebook.com/events/759621220789885/) ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dusk on 2015-03-13; known on 2015-03-20; judged right by dusk on 2015-04-05.
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Brayden accepts a job offer from a company in the Bay Area that will sponsor a visa, either during or following his trip that ends June 3rd 2014 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dusk on 2014-04-30; known on 2014-06-30; judged right by dusk on 2014-06-30.
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Brayden receives a job offer from a company in the Bay Area that will sponsor a visa, either during or following his trip that ends June 3rd 2014 ( 78% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by dusk on 2014-04-30; known on 2014-06-30; judged right by dusk on 2014-06-30.
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Malaysian Airlines Flight 370 will be found before March 22nd 2014 (or the resting place will be narrowed down to a smaller than 100 square km area of ocean) ( 70% confidence )
Created by dusk on 2014-03-16; known on 2014-03-22; judged wrong by mfb on 2014-04-02.
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Alastair Roche will return to Melbourne from his San Francisco trip convinced to stay there. Convinced means on asking 'you should probably go to live in San Francisco permanently soon', he says 'yes', where the only alternative is 'no' and 'maybe' is not ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RyanCarey on 2013-10-19; known on 2013-12-11; judged wrong by dusk on 2015-04-05.
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Each person who brings a dish to the Effective Altruism Salon will be able to feed an average of between 2 and 4 people. ( 40% confidence )
Created by dusk on 2013-09-07; known on 2013-09-10; judged wrong by dusk on 2013-09-10.
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HPMOR: Dumbledore is Grindelwald ( 2% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dusk on 2013-08-20; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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“Less than 500 of the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II will ever be built” [Pierre Sprey] ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by dusk on 2013-08-15; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by dusk on 2020-12-25.
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In addition to Pluto's 5 known moons, at least 3 additional satellites will be identified following the New Horizons fly-by. ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by dusk on 2013-07-17; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-31.
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The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022 ( 34% confidence; 35 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-15; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by M on 2022-01-01.
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C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring) will hit Mars ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2013-03-02; known on 2014-11-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-10-28.
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“Glasses” computing devices (peripheral or standalone – example: Google Glasses) to have sales of at least 100 million units per year by 2018. ( 50% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-20; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2020-05-15.
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Oscar Pistorius to be convicted of murder of Reeva Steenkamp. ( 67% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-15; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by procran on 2014-01-20.
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USA to begin phase-out of pennies by start of 2016. ( 12% confidence; 30 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-13; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-01-01.
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The next pope will be a white male. ( 69% confidence; 22 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-02-12; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by simplicio on 2013-03-13.
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Pope Benedict XVI resigned for reasons other than his health, and this will be confirmed by reliable news sources. ( 18% confidence; 18 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by stephenh on 2013-02-11; known on 2014-02-11; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-02-13.
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Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, “How to create a mind”) ( 25% confidence; 17 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-02-08; known on 2029-01-02.
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Western Australia will secede from the Commonwealth of Australia by the end of 2025. ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by najdorf on 2013-02-06; known on 2025-12-31.
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Neither US nor Russian governments will make announcements claiming the existence of sentient aliens this year. http://www.eutimes.net/2013/01/russia-orders-obama-tell-world-about-aliens-or-we-will/ ( 98% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-01-27; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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Hilary Clinton will not be running for President in the 2016 Presidential Election ( 45% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-30; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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A digital 4K video camera will be available for under US$4000 by the end of 2013. ( 80% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by dusk on 2013-01-24; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by dusk on 2020-12-25.
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Windows Phone 7.8 will roll out over-the-air to some consumer devices by the end of February 2013. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by dusk on 2013-01-24; known on 2013-03-01; judged right by dusk on 2013-01-31.
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Microsoft will start selling Windows 9 by the end of 2014. ( 19% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by dusk on 2013-01-24; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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Steve Ballmer will be the CEO of Microsoft at the end of 2014 ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by dusk on 2013-01-24; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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Steve Ballmer will be the CEO of Microsoft at the end of 2013 ( 81% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by dusk on 2013-01-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by dusk on 2014-01-01.
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Anne Hathaway will win the Oscar for Best Supporting Actress. ( 55% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-10; known on 2013-02-24; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-25.
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In 2020, every single one of the 5 tallest buildings in the world will be located in China, Hong Kong, or Taiwan. ( 27% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.