Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Night 19: pill was Vitamin D ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-19; known on 2012-01-19; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-19.
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Google Search will be inaccessible to US visitors for at least 4 hours due to a “blackout” protesting pending legislation, before 2013 ( 5% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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Google Search will be inaccessible to US visitors for at least 4 hours due to a “blackout” protesting pending legislation, before 2013 ( 5% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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Night 18: pill was Vitamin D ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-18; known on 2012-01-18; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-18.
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HonoreDB's 'universally correct method' is a mathematical construct. ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-16; known on 2012-01-20; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-18.
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Nobody will independently recreate my idea in response to http://lesswrong.com/r/lesswrong/lw/9eo/a_call_for_solutions_and_a_tease_of_mine/. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2012-01-16; known on 2012-01-19; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-01-18.
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In the next three days, somebody will post an idea on http://lesswrong.com/r/lesswrong/lw/9eo/a_call_for_solutions_and_a_tease_of_mine/ that I find novel and intriguing. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by HonoreDB on 2012-01-16; known on 2012-01-19; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-01-18.
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I scored a 90 or higher on my calc quiz today. ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ahartell on 2012-01-12; known on 2012-01-26; judged right by ahartell on 2012-01-17.
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Night 17: pill was Vitamin D ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-17; known on 2012-01-17; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-17.
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I will be defrauded, stolen from, robbed, burgled, or assaulted during my stay in Mexico City. ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-17.
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I will be murdered during my stay in Mexico City. ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-17.
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Night 16: pill was Vitamin D ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-16; known on 2012-01-16; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-16.
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“Michele Bachmann to win the 2012 South Carolina Primary” —Intrade ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-01-28; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-22.
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“Michele Bachmann to win the 2012 South Carolina Primary” —Intrade ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-01-28; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-22.
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Gold will be $2000 by Jan 2012 ( 45% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by eduffy on 2011-11-03; known on 2012-01-16; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-16.
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In the comments of http://lesswrong.com/r/lesswrong/lw/9eo/a_call_for_solutions_and_a_tease_of_mine/, somebody will mention prediction markets in the next three days. ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2012-01-16; known on 2012-01-19; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-16.
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In the comments of http://lesswrong.com/r/lesswrong/lw/9eo/a_call_for_solutions_and_a_tease_of_mine/, somebody will mention prediction markets in the next three days. ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2012-01-16; known on 2012-01-19; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-16.
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SpaceX to successfully dock with the ISS by January 15, 2012 ( 30% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-19; known on 2012-01-15; judged wrong by kiba on 2012-01-15.
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Night 15: pill was Vitamin D ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-15; known on 2012-01-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-15.
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I will like the second season of Top Shot more than the first. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-15.
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Will have changed Windows' display language to Japanese by next Sunday. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-07; known on 2012-01-15; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-15.
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Asif Ali Zardari will be ousted from the presidency of Pakistan during 2011 due to huge military-civilian clashes and be replaced by a president who will forbid US drone flights ( 4% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-14.
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Average global temperature will be higher for 2011 than 2010. ( 32% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-14.
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'At year's end, the district court will still not have issued a final judgment on the Google Book Search settlement.' —FtT ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-14; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-14.
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GJP: #1025 Will the Freedom and Justice Party win at least 20 percent of the seats in the first People's Assembly (Majlis al-Sha’b) election in post-Mubarak Egypt? ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-14.
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'the first flight of SpaceX's Falcon 1e rocket' —Sketerpot ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-14.
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Blue Waters built, fully online, and capable of >1 sustained petaflops ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-14.
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The USA will refuse again to commit to new Emmissions Regulations at COP17 ( 70% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by general on 2011-11-17; known on 2011-12-09; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-14.
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On 31 Dec 2011, there will be no generally available consumer-level PC, as delivered from the factory, that has a clock speed of more than 5 GHz. ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Richard_Kennaway on 2011-01-02; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-14.
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Night 14: pill was Vitamin D ( 60% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2012-01-14; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-14.
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France to lose AAA credit rating before midnight ET 30 Jun 2012 —Intrade ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-08; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-13.
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Sarah Palin is mounting a 2012 presidential campaign ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-07-04; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-13.
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Night 13: pill was Vitamin D ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-13; known on 2012-01-13; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-13.
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the dog will have a good life ( 79% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by kim13579 on 2012-01-12; known on 2012-01-26; judged right by kim13579 on 2012-01-12.
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Night 12: pill was Vitamin D ( 70% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-12; known on 2012-01-12; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-12.
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Det tager mig <30 minutter at køre på cykel fra Lundsgade til Scandiagade ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OptiMind on 2012-01-12; known on 2012-01-12; judged right by OptiMind on 2012-01-12.
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'ICANN still will not have introduced new generic TLDs.' —FtT ( 70% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-14; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-11.
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Night 11: pill was Vitamin D ( 30% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-11; known on 2012-01-11; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-11.
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'Apple launches its long-awaited music streaming service' in 2011 —Chris O'Brien ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-10.
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The price of gold will fall in real terms. —Costanza ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-10.
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'The rate of inflation of U.S. dollars will rise.' —Costanza ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-10.
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'“Core inflation” of the U.S. dollar (which ignores food and energy prices) shall remain below 2.0%: 80%' —CronoDAS ( 75% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-10.
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Obama's approval rating will be lower 1 Jan 2012 than 1 Jan 2011. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-10; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-10.
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Night 10: pill was Vitamin D ( 35% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-01-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-10.
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An e-reader device incorporating an “electrowetting” display (irrespective of maker) will clear FCC approval, or be available from online stores in US or EU, by the next CES show. ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-09-04; known on 2012-01-15; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-01-10.
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LSU will win the BCS national championship for the 2011 season. ( 70% confidence )
Created by RobertLumley on 2011-11-10; known on 2012-01-11; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2012-01-10.
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Project and finance management will turn from 6 credit points to 12 credit points by the end of this year. ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by puya on 2011-04-06; known on 2011-12-29; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2012-01-10.
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Immigration will reduce by 50 percent until the end of this year. ( 24% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by puya on 2011-03-30; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2012-01-10.
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Nadal will regain the #1 ranking at some point this year ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-03; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2012-01-10.
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Night 9: pill was Vitamin D ( 65% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-01-09; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-09.