Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 9 |
Displaying all predictions made by NancyLebovitz. Filter by:
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Ebola will be considered endemic in a year. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2014-10-14; known on 2015-10-14; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-12.
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There won't be any questions about street harassment in the 2014 Less Wrong survey. ( 97% confidence )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2014-01-08; known on 2014-12-01; judged right by kuudes on 2014-10-25.
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The Pope will be assassinated. ( 2% confidence; 35 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-11-28; known on 2028-11-28.
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HP MoR: We won't know who framed Hermione by 1/1/2014. Prediction inspired by http://predictionbook.com/predictions/18095 ( 36% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-06-13; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by a0c4a123f7 on 2014-01-02.
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Google will survive for 15 more years ( 91% confidence; 29 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-05-19; known on 2028-05-19.
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Google will survive for five more years ( 97% confidence; 38 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-05-19; known on 2018-05-19; judged right by NancyLebovitz on 2018-05-19.
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There will be pictures of the sandcastle from xkcd 1190 online within a year ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-03-31; known on 2014-03-30; judged right by NancyLebovitz on 2014-03-30.
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The header backgrounds on LessWrong's Main and Discussion sites will be matched within a month. ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gokfar on 2013-01-05; known on 2013-02-05; judged wrong by gokfar on 2013-02-05.
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There will be a 3Dmovie made of the Odyssey within three years. ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2012-12-29; known on 2015-12-28; judged wrong by NancyLebovitz on 2015-12-28.
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The “Anonymous Narratives by LW Women” thread will receive >500 comments ( 63% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Konkvistador on 2012-09-09; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by Athrelon on 2012-12-30.
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The Open Thread post at Less Wrong will be posted four times a month rather than its current twice a month within a year. ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 37 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2012-09-09; known on 2013-09-08; judged right by ygert on 2013-08-30.
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At least one of Sasha and Malia Obama will say they have or had an eating disorder. ( 29% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2012-09-04; known on 2032-09-04.