Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
-
“Rick Perry to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012” —Intrade ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-08-30; judged wrong by falenas108 on 2012-04-19.
-
I will sleep on the plane. ( 5% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-17; known on 2012-04-18; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-17.
-
Obama's world bank candidate, Jim Kim, will win the position ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-01; known on 2012-06-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-04-16.
-
My “Master Deck” for Anki will exceed 2,000 flash cards before June, 2012. ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-14; known on 2012-06-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-16.
-
I will complete chapter 3 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 10 hours. ( 66% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-16; known on 2012-04-16; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-16.
-
I will complete chapter 2 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 6 hours. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-15; known on 2012-04-15; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-15.
-
I will complete at least one of the new Stanford online classes (I signed up for 6 of them) ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Isaac on 2011-11-18; known on 2012-04-01; judged right by Isaac on 2012-04-15.
-
GJP: #1078 Will a Japanese whaling ship enter Australia's territorial waters between 7 February 2012 and 10 April 2012? ( 45% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-07; known on 2012-04-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-14.
-
GJP: #1082 Will William Ruto cease to be a candidate for President of Kenya before 10 April 2012? ( 30% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-07; known on 2012-04-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-14.
-
GJP: #1090 Before 13 April 2012, will the Turkish government officially announce that the Turkish ambassador to France has been recalled? ( 30% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2012-04-14; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-14.
-
I will finish my physics Anki deck within the next 5 hours. ( 65% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-14; known on 2012-04-14; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-14.
-
My students will take me up on the offer of a case of beer for today's reviews. ( 55% confidence )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-04-13; known on 2012-04-13; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2012-04-13.
-
9 or more students will present in today's reviews (my studio) ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-04-13; known on 2012-04-13; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2012-04-13.
-
I will enjoy tonight's dinner with a bunch of unkonwn friends. ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by happyday on 2012-04-12; known on 2012-04-12; judged right by happyday on 2012-04-13.
-
I will complete chapter 3 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Learning Latin within the next 5 hours. ( 55% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-12; known on 2012-04-12; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-12.
-
>=$1.6m will be donated towards the Center for Modern Rationality in the next month ( 1% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-12; known on 2012-04-12; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-12.
-
I will complete chapter 2 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Physics: Second Edition within the next 5 hours. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-12; known on 2012-04-12; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-12.
-
I will complete chapter 1 of All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide: Fourth Edition within 5 hours. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-12; known on 2012-04-12; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-12.
-
My scheduler, Sparking Now, completed to a usable level within a year. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-12; known on 2012-04-12; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2012-04-12.
-
GJP: #1086 Will Mohamed Waheed Hussain Manik resign or otherwise vacate the office of President of Maldives before 10 April 2012? ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2012-04-11; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-11.
-
I will complete chapter 2 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Learning Latin within the next 10 hours. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-11; known on 2012-04-11; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-11.
-
I will complete the All-In-One CompTIA A+ Certification Exam Guide: Seventh Edition within the next 2 weeks. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-05; known on 2012-04-19; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-11.
-
My husband won't sleep before 3am today because he can't finish his vedio clip for design. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by happyday on 2012-04-10; known on 2012-04-10; judged right by happyday on 2012-04-11.
-
Bobby Petrino will be the head coach of the Arkansas Razorbacks at the start of the 2012 season. ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RobertLumley on 2012-04-06; known on 2012-09-01; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2012-04-10.
-
Santorum will win the Pennsylvania primary ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-04-30; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-04-10.
-
GJP: #1083 Will Marine LePen cease to be a candidate for President of France before 10 April 2012? ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-07; known on 2012-04-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-10.
-
I will be selected for OpenSNP's free 23AndMe genotyping. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-20; known on 2012-04-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-10.
-
I will complete chapter 26 of All-In-One CompTIA A+ Certification Exam Guide within the next 10 hours. ( 55% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-10; known on 2012-04-10; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-10.
-
I will get 'pass' for the city assignment 01. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by williamycai on 2012-04-05; known on 2012-05-15; judged right by JeffreyTse on 2012-04-10.
-
I will have my movie 99% of my movie completed by this weekend! ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by JeffreyTse on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-04-08; judged wrong by JeffreyTse on 2012-04-10.
-
More than 10 people will show up for Ben's tutorial today. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JeffreyTse on 2012-04-10; known on 2012-04-10; judged right by JeffreyTse on 2012-04-10.
-
i won't make any compliants this week and there will be no argument between me and my hubby until the easter holiday finished ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by happyday on 2012-04-02; known on 2012-04-18; judged right by happyday on 2012-04-10.
-
During the easter holidays, we will drive to a random forest and listen to owl city's 'fire flies' with all the car lights off…… ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by happyday on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-04-12; judged wrong by happyday on 2012-04-10.
-
I'm going to book sky diving and attened it during the easter holiday. ( 84% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by happyday on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-04-08; judged wrong by happyday on 2012-04-10.
-
Zeo vitamin D morning: Week 5 & 6: placebo then vitamin D ( 55% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2012-04-09; judged right by gwern on 2012-04-09.
-
I wont see her any more ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-01; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by nam2001 on 2012-04-09.
-
I will complete my Anki review for the day. ( 99% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-09; known on 2012-04-09; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-09.
-
Zeo vitamin D morning: Week 3 & 4: placebo then vitamin D ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2012-04-07; judged right by gwern on 2012-04-07.
-
friday will be 'Sunny' as the weather report has suggested ( 40% confidence )
Created by happyday on 2012-04-03; known on 2012-04-07; judged right by happyday on 2012-04-07.
-
i won't get present for easter at all ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by happyday on 2012-03-27; known on 2012-04-09; judged wrong by happyday on 2012-04-07.
-
I will complete chapter 23 of All-In-One CompTIA A+ Certification Exam Guide within the next 5 hours. ( 55% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-06; known on 2012-04-06; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-06.
-
We will go to the royal easter show on friday this week, and see the cat and dog show as i wished. ( 90% confidence )
Created by happyday on 2012-04-03; known on 2012-07-04; judged right by happyday on 2012-04-06.
-
I will reach 1000 karma on LW (http://lesswrong.com/user/RobertLumley) by June 2nd, the anniversary of my first post on LW. ( 67% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2011-12-08; known on 2012-06-02; judged right by RobertLumley on 2012-04-06.
-
I will gain at least one Pinterest follower who is a “real person” (has pinned things, pins don't contain spam links) by this time tomorrow ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Sarokrae on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-04-05; judged right by Sarokrae on 2012-04-05.
-
It will rain in Cambridge, UK tomorrow between 1pm and 5pm. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Sarokrae on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-04-05; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-04-05.
-
It will rain in Cambridge, UK tomorrow between 1pm and 5pm. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Sarokrae on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-04-05; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-04-05.
-
Evangelion manga: Shinji and/or Asuka will defeat the MP Evas ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-02; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-05.
-
I will complete and merge all of my incomplete Anki decks into a single master deck within the next 12 hours. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-05; known on 2012-04-05; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-05.
-
I will complete all my physics practice problems correctly. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-05; known on 2012-04-06; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-05.
-
I will complete every exercise in the first 10 chapters of Introduction to Java Programming by Y. Daniel Liang before the end of March, 30th, 2012. ( 65% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2012-03-31; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-05.