Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 50% | 100% | 75% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
Displaying all predictions made by Lachann. Filter by:
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LePen elected president of france, 2017 ( 43% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by regex on 2017-05-07.
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A nuclear weapon will be detonated in a non-test scenario before November 2020. ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by trishume on 2016-11-10; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-11-16.
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There will be one or more assassination attempts (successful or not) against Donald Trump during his first term as POTUS. ( 47% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2016-11-10; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
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obamacare repealed in 6 months ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jal278 on 2016-11-10; known on 2017-05-10; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-05-11.
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United States pulls out of NATO ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sflicht on 2021-01-02.
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>32 faithless electors ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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0-15 faithless electors ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-12-29.
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16-32 faithless electors ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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0 faithless electors ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-19.
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Abortion illegal in at least one state in the US / Roe v. Wade overturned / passed through Senate/Congress/President/Supreme Court ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01.
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SpaceX launches (defined as lifting off the ground at a scheduled launch time, otherwise no success requirement) again before the end of 2016. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2016-11-08; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-31.
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At least one “faithless elector” in the 2016 U.S. Electoral College. ( 66% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2016-11-07; known on 2017-01-12; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-19.
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A nuclear device (bomb, granade etc) with a strength of more than 1 kiloton will explode anywhere in the middle east within the next 5 years. ( 13% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by siscoking on 2012-01-29; known on 2017-01-29; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-30.