Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 69% | 65% | 71% | 90% | 93% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 16 | 46 | 28 | 20 | 41 | 6 | 157 |
Displaying all predictions made by alecbrooks. Filter by:
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Hillary Clinton will run for president and be nominated by the Democrats and win the election in 2016. ( 38% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Secretary of Education Sarah Palin ( 6% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-01; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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Merrick Garland will fill Scalia's SCOTUS seat ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-07-14; known on 2017-02-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-02-16.
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Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally. ( 10% confidence; 17 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-29; known on 2022-12-25.
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Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus. ( 99% confidence; 23 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-29; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2023-01-01.
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Ebola has killed fewer than 1000 people in the US or Canada by November 2015 ( 95% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by LogicalOxymoron on 2014-11-22; known on 2015-11-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-11-01.
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The Reading Rainbow Kickstarter will reach its goal in 24 hours. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by alecbrooks on 2014-05-28; known on 2014-05-29; judged right by alecbrooks on 2014-05-29.
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The Reading Rainbow Kickstarter will reach its goal. ( 90% confidence )
Created by alecbrooks on 2014-05-28; known on 2014-07-02; judged right by alecbrooks on 2014-05-29.
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I will read 12 books before 2015. ( 86% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-10; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-04-29.
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“200 million [Ubuntu] users by 2015” -Shuttleworth's goal ( 3% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-04; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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The 2013 Less Wrong Survey will show more than 60% of the participants to be men. ( 94% confidence; 31 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Mathias Zaman on 2013-12-01; known on 2014-01-31; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-01-19.
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Barack Obama to attempt to run for a third term as President (either through Constitutional amendment or other method). ( 0% confidence; 41 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-24; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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I will still be using this in a year. ( 65% confidence )
Created by alecbrooks on 2013-11-18; known on 2014-11-17; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
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My default Anki deck will contain equal to or greater than 20,000 cards before 2014. ( 95% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-11-12; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-12-17.
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I will go to jail ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2013-09-30; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Grognor on 2013-12-30.
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There won't be any questions involving little-omega or little-o notation on the algorithms midterm this week. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-15; known on 2013-10-19; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-18.
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Wendy Davis elected governor of Texas. ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Omid on 2013-10-05; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-11-05.
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Government shutdown will continue past Oct 8, 2013 (ie more than a week since its beginning) ( 79% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-10-04; known on 2013-10-08; judged right by foo on 2013-10-08.
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Government shutdown to end by October 25 ( 71% confidence; 21 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-10-01; known on 2013-10-25; judged right by nshepperd on 2013-10-17.
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Rand Paul will win the presidential election. He will go against the NSA, surveillance, drone strikes… all the “hot issues” for the new generation. Thousands of people will register as Republicans and vote for him to fight for a free Internet. ( 3% confidence; 21 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by tinatoys on 2013-08-03; known on 2016-11-06; judged wrong by jgauthier on 2016-11-07.
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Canonical will be acquired before 2015 ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2013-07-23; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by dhoe on 2014-12-31.
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Half-Life 3 will be announced this summer ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by alecbrooks on 2013-06-29; known on 2013-09-23; judged wrong by alecbrooks on 2013-09-23.
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Snowden arrested by US authorities before 2014 ( 24% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2013-06-23; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-12-31.
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PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today – 5/31/2023 – with this individual prediction still accessible. ( 71% confidence; 29 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by FestiveBleak on 2013-05-31; known on 2023-05-31; judged right by holycow81 7 days ago.
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Google will survive for five more years ( 97% confidence; 38 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-05-19; known on 2018-05-19; judged right by NancyLebovitz on 2018-05-19.
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Mathematician Shinichi Mochizuki's proof on the ABC Conjecture will be verified to be valid by 2035. ( 22% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-05-11; known on 2035-01-01.
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Google Chrome browser will survive 5 years ( 93% confidence; 27 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Search will survive 5 years ( 98% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-03; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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4th grade SC science quiz is an actual quiz from an actual school. ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Bojidar Kojouharov on 2013-04-26; known on 2013-07-01; judged right by Bojidar Kojouharov on 2013-07-08.
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Bitcoin may means-revert ~$10/btc “in a few weeks” —Scott Locklin model ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-04-17; known on 2013-05-22; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-05-22.
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Bitcoin to hit ~$20/btc “in a few weeks” —Scott Locklin model ( 10% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-04-17; known on 2013-05-22; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-05-22.
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The next US president (after Obama) will also be a Democrat. ( 53% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Osuniev on 2013-04-15; known on 2016-11-15; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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xkcd “Time” will show its last unique frame before May 1 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by itaibn on 2013-03-31; known on 2013-05-01; judged wrong by itaibn on 2013-05-01.
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xkcd “Time” will show its last unique frame before 2014 ( 94% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by itaibn on 2013-03-31; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by itaibn on 2013-07-29.
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BTC hits $500 within the year ( 35% confidence; 23 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2013-11-28.
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BTC hits $200 within the year ( 57% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-09.
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Bitcoin is exchanged at or below $2 by early July ( 2% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jach on 2013-04-03; known on 2013-07-08; judged wrong by Jach on 2013-07-08.
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Bitcoin will hit the $30 mark (currently $100) sometime in the next 2 months. ( 30% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-04-01; known on 2013-07-01; judged wrong by phreeza on 2013-07-02.
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Now that Goodreads has been acquired by Amazon, “I doubt it will survive in its current form for more than 2 years.” — Joey Hess ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by alecbrooks on 2013-04-01; known on 2015-04-01; judged wrong by alecbrooks on 2015-04-04.
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Supremes make same-sex marriage law of the land. ( 38% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-03-27; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Patrick Brinich-Langlois on 2014-01-01.
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Torment: Tides of Numenera kickstarter will reach the 3.25 millions stretch goal ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by kilobug on 2013-03-22; known on 2013-04-07; judged right by muflax on 2013-04-03.
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Torment: Tides of Numenera kickstarter will reach 3 millions ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kilobug on 2013-03-22; known on 2013-04-07; judged right by alecbrooks on 2013-03-30.
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BTC hits $100 within the year ( 65% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-03-19; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-04-01.
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The Veronica Mars movie Kickstarter will break the all-tme Kickstarter record of $10.3 million. ( 20% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by alecbrooks on 2013-03-17; known on 2013-04-12; judged wrong by hedges on 2013-04-12.
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The Veronica Mars movie campaign on Kickstarter will reach $5 million. ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by alecbrooks on 2013-03-14; known on 2013-04-12; judged right by phreeza on 2013-04-12.
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Average global temperature for 2013 to be higher than for 2012. ( 56% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-03-13; known on 2014-01-15; judged right by simplicio on 2014-01-15.
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The Veronica Mars movie campaign on Kickstarter will reach its $2 million goal. ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by alecbrooks on 2013-03-13; known on 2013-04-12; judged right by alecbrooks on 2013-03-14.
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USA to begin phase-out of pennies by start of 2016. ( 12% confidence; 30 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-13; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-01-01.
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Logs from Tesla Motors will vindicate Elon Musk and the Tesla Model S. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by alecbrooks on 2013-02-12; known on 2013-03-01; judged wrong by procran on 2013-06-14.
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The recently resigned pope will announce he is an atheist ( 0% confidence; 29 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-02-11; known on 2013-05-11; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2013-05-11.
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Electoral Vote Predictor (run by Andrew Tannenbaum) will come back in 2014. (http://www.electoral-vote.com/) ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by alecbrooks on 2013-02-07; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2014-02-05.
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I will reach 200 followers on Twitter by the end of 2013. ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by alecbrooks on 2013-01-29; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by alecbrooks on 2014-01-01.
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Mencius Moldbug: Bitcoin <10 cents by end of 2013. ( 7% confidence; 26 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-01-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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John Green will not publish a book in 2013. (Novellas written for charity don't count.) ( 90% confidence )
Created by alecbrooks on 2013-01-23; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by alecbrooks on 2014-01-01.
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Conditional on Germany proceeding with nuclear phaseout, coal will account for a larger share of generation (in TWh/yr terms) in 2015 than it did in 2012. ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-01-18; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by alecbrooks on 2016-08-13.
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The US government will not have defaulted by the end of 2013. ( 96% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-15; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
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Lauren McNamara will be dropped as a witness for the defense in the trial against Bradley Manning. ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by alecbrooks on 2013-01-11; known on 2013-07-01; judged wrong by alecbrooks on 2013-07-09.
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Barack Obama will be assassinated in 2013 ( 1% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-01-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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By the end of 2013, the government will have never minted a trillion dollar coin. ( 94% confidence; 27 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
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Gwern has dissociative identity disorder and the identity of his split personality is Yvain. ( 0% confidence; 28 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2020-01-01.
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No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2015. ( 95% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-31; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2015-01-01.
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John Kerry won't be the Secretary of State but will win re-election in 2014. ( 73% confidence )
Created by alecbrooks on 2012-12-02; known on 2014-11-04; judged wrong by alecbrooks on 2013-01-29.
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HP:MoR: Review-count of MoR to surpass UC within a year. ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-11-16; known on 2013-11-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-11-16.
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If Star Wars VII is released in 2015, then it will have a higher RottenTomatoes score than 'The Phantom Menace' at the end of 2015. ( 70% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-11-11; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2016-01-01.
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Tori Dykes' tweet (https://twitter.com/toridykes/status/266032621690171392) will not reach 2,000 RTs by Sunday. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by alecbrooks on 2012-11-09; known on 2012-11-11; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-11-11.
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I will try either Acme, Emacs, or both over the coming year. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by alecbrooks on 2012-11-09; known on 2013-11-09; judged wrong by alecbrooks on 2013-11-18.
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I will still be using this in a year. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by alecbrooks on 2012-11-09; known on 2013-11-09; judged right by alecbrooks on 2013-11-18.
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There'll be less gridlock in Obama's second term vs. the first term (measured by total number of filibusters) ( 53% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07; known on 2016-12-31.
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“Google's self-driving cars will be available [for purchase at a reasonable price to buy and drive legally] for everyone [the same market that can currently afford to buy a car] within five years” – Sergey Brin ( 16% confidence; 32 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Qiaochu on 2012-10-14; known on 2017-09-26; judged wrong by Tanner on 2017-09-26.
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By the end of 2013, I will have made at least 500 predictions on PB.com. ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2012-10-15; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2014-01-03.
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I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years. ( 82% confidence; 15 wagers )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-29; known on 2022-09-29; judged right by lukeprog on 2022-09-29.
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Hillary Clinton will run for president and be nominated by the Democrats in 2016. ( 42% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2016-09-30; judged right by Dapple on 2016-09-03.
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Hillary Clinton will run for president in 2016. ( 38% confidence; 25 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2016-02-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-27.
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“There will be a major war, starting in the Middle East. Israel will lose (75%). China will probably join in on the radical-Muslim side. Iran will try to use its nukes but they will be duds. Israel will not use theirs…” —jdgalt ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-01-01.
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gwern.net total traffic will average <2000 daily visits in the week a year from now. ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-17; known on 2012-12-17; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-17.
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“Lindsay Lohan will be dead within 2 years.” ( 8% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-16; known on 2013-11-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-16.
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The Hobbit Part 1 will gross more on its opening weekend than LotR: Return of the King ( 71% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Jach on 2011-08-18; known on 2012-12-16; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-16.
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The world will not end December 25, 2012. ( 98% confidence; 28 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Houshalter on 2010-06-13; known on 2012-12-26; judged right by Qiaochu on 2012-12-26.