Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 100% | 0% | 75% | 75% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 16 |
Displaying all predictions made by briennestrohl. Filter by:
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Given that Brienne was free of social anxiety on May 20 2014, she will be free of social anxiety on August 20 2014 as well. ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by briennestrohl on 2014-04-20; known on 2014-08-21; judged right by briennestrohl on 2014-08-21.
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Brienne will be free of social anxiety in 4 months of this posting. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by briennestrohl on 2014-04-20; known on 2014-08-20; judged right by briennestrohl on 2014-08-20.
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On May 20, 2014, Brienne will still be free of social anxiety. ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by briennestrohl on 2014-04-20; known on 2014-05-20; judged right by briennestrohl on 2014-05-21.
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My Melbourne Goal Factoring class will get a better average rating than the average of Geoff's version. ( 70% confidence )
Created by briennestrohl on 2014-02-28; known on 2014-04-02.
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Elizabeth, Leah, and Tilia will together cause at least twenty women to make prediction book accounts. ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by briennestrohl on 2014-01-22; known on 2014-01-29; judged wrong by mitodoteira on 2014-02-04.
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Elizabeth, Leah, and Tilia will together cause at least ten women to make prediction book accounts. ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by briennestrohl on 2014-01-22; known on 2014-01-29; judged wrong by briennestrohl on 2014-02-06.
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CFAR will get a grant from the American Mathematical Society to fund SPARC 2014. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by briennestrohl on 2014-01-22; known on 2014-03-01; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-02-15.
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Someone will convince me betting money is an excellent means of epistemic calibration despite the arguments I made in my FB post about it. (OP here https://www.facebook.com/strohl89/posts/10152167620634598?stream_ref=10) ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by briennestrohl on 2014-01-21; known on 2014-01-25; judged wrong by briennestrohl on 2014-01-25.
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I'll cause at least five people to start using Prediction Book by the end of today. ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by briennestrohl on 2014-01-21; known on 2014-01-22; judged right by briennestrohl on 2014-01-22.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky will remain visibly overweight at the end of 2014. ( 71% confidence; 20 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-21; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by waveman on 2015-01-02.
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HP MoR: At the end of the story Hermione comes back as an alicorn princess ( 18% confidence; 21 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by Benja on 2013-07-06; known on 2014-07-06; judged right by Benja on 2015-03-15.