Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Dota 2 7.00: Disruption cooldown increased ( 60% confidence )
Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged wrong by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
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Dota 2 7.00: Moon Glaive no longer works on illusions ( 70% confidence )
Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged wrong by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
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Dota 2 7.00: Underlord added to captains mode ( 90% confidence )
Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged right by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
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Dota 2 7.00: Arc Warden added to captains mode ( 80% confidence )
Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged right by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
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Dota 2 7.00: Aether Lens recipe cost reduced ( 70% confidence )
Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged wrong by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
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Dota 2 7.00: Guardian Greaves recipe cost reduced ( 60% confidence )
Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged wrong by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
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Dota 2 7.00: 2 new heroes added ( 20% confidence )
Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged wrong by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
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Dota 2 7.00: Damage dealt to buildings by illusions reduced ( 30% confidence )
Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged right by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
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Dota 2 7.00: Wisdom stat added ( 5% confidence )
Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged wrong by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
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Dota 2 7.00: Necronomicon recipe cost reduced ( 40% confidence )
Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged wrong by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
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Dota 2 7.00: Conceding possible in ranked matchmaking ( 2% confidence )
Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged wrong by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
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Dota 2 7.00: In-game HUD changed significantly ( 80% confidence )
Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged right by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
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Dota 2 7.00: Dragon Lance agility and strength boost reduced ( 80% confidence )
Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged wrong by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
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Dota 2 7.00: Heaven's Halberd cooldown reduced ( 70% confidence )
Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged wrong by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
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Dota 2 7.00: Sentry Wards no longer purchased in pairs ( 30% confidence )
Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged wrong by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
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Dota 2 7.00: Divine Rapier damage increased ( 40% confidence )
Created by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-11; judged wrong by RogerDodger on 2016-12-11.
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HPMoR: Harry Potter has asked the Weasleys for a computer. ( 15% confidence )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-14; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Mati on 2016-12-11.
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Waterstones removes the US Army Improvised Munitions Handbook from sale, on or before 2016-11-20 ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2016-11-14; known on 2016-11-21; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2016-12-11.
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Amazon removes at least one listing of the US Army Improvised Munitions Handbook from sale, on or before 2016-11-20 ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2016-11-14; known on 2016-11-21; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2016-12-11.
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I'll recover from the flu enough to work on the 10th ( 70% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-08; known on 2016-12-10; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-10.
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Craig S. Wright will not (in the next year) demonstrate possession of the key with fingerprint DE4E FCA3 E1AB 9E41 CE96 CECB 18C0 9E86 5EC9 48A1, nor of any other key or bitcoin convincingly belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto. ( 82% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by James Babcock on 2015-12-09; known on 2016-12-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-09.
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We decide to change S's name in the next month ( 10% confidence )
Created by penten on 2016-11-09; known on 2016-12-09; judged wrong by penten on 2016-12-09.
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We will buy more clothes for S within a month ( 70% confidence )
Created by penten on 2016-11-09; known on 2016-12-09; judged wrong by penten on 2016-12-09.
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As of January 1, 2017, there will be at least 40 YouTube videos with over a billion views as measured by YouTube. ( 97% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-26; known on 2017-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2016-12-07.
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CR's friend will get snow tires on his truck in time for CR to borrow it ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-19; known on 2016-12-06; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-06.
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Amazon Web Services will drop the storage price for S3 standard storage in its US standard (N. Virginia) region between November 13, 2016 and January 1, 2018. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2016-12-06.
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The number of content pages on the English Wikipedia, as reported at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Statistics, will exceed 5.3 million on or before January 1, 2017. ( 84% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-30; known on 2017-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2016-12-06.
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I will have sex with a woman (IQ>137, non-US born) at the Envision Conference in Princeton ( 9% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2016-11-28; known on 2016-12-06; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2016-12-06.
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Logos01 will commit suicide in 5 years. ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-05; known on 2016-12-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-12-05.
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A's bike will get stolen or lost in 2015. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by adri on 2015-01-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by adri on 2016-12-04.
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A will get 12 in Top. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by adri on 2014-11-27; known on 2015-02-14; judged right by adri on 2016-12-04.
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“Little sister” will go on a mission before 2016. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by adri on 2014-11-27; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by adri on 2016-12-04.
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A will go skiing in 2015. ( 30% confidence )
Created by adri on 2015-01-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by adri on 2016-12-04.
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@paxdickinson will be suspended from Twitter for a week or longer before 2017 ( 53% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-22; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-04.
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Melbourne City will not win anything John van't Schip as Head Coach. ( 100% confidence )
Created by dfebb on 2015-05-21; known on 2016-11-21; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-12-04.
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Japanese lawmakers will pass a bill after the Upper House Elections in the Fall of 2016 legalizing casino-type gambling; furthermore a 'head tax' similar to the system in Singapore will be imposed on Japanese citizens but more likely Japanese residents. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by amexfireplace on 2015-12-05; known on 2016-11-21; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-12-04.
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Zak Goldsmith will win Richmond Park by election on 1dec2016. ( 92% confidence )
Created by CLARENCETHEANGEL on 2016-12-01; known on 2016-12-02; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-12-04.
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At least one senator or representative to change parties before the election. ( 19% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-07; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-12-03.
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A terrorist attack or series of terrorist attacks ordered by Kim Jong Un on South Korean & possibly Japanese targets including public transportation, power plants and on individual disidents or critics will happen some time in 2016 – possibly within 90d. ( 22% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by amexfireplace on 2016-02-23; known on 2016-11-30; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-12-03.
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Politics, India – It is announced before 2016-12-01 that banks will accept old 500 and 1000 rupee notes, for exchange or for any other purpose, beyond 2016-12-30, either indefinitely or up to an extended deadline. ( 24% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2016-11-14; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by michael149 on 2016-12-02.
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The Liberal Democrat candidate will win more votes than the Labour candidate in the Richmond Park by-election ( 64% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-03; known on 2016-12-02; judged right by splorridge on 2016-12-02.
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Zac Goldsmith will win the Richmond Park by-election ( 60% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-03; known on 2016-12-02; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-12-02.
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Zac Goldsmith will win the Richmond Park by-election ( 60% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-03; known on 2016-12-02; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-12-02.
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I am still using Complice on December 1 2016. ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-01-13; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-12-02.
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Democrats take the Senate in 2016. ( 48% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by lalaithion on 2016-12-01.
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Francois Hollande to enter french presidential race ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by leo_grint on 2016-11-22; known on 2016-12-23; judged wrong by leo_grint on 2016-12-01.
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We'll conduct the third applied rationality workshop in Kocherga in October or November 2016 ( 80% confidence )
Created by berekuk on 2016-09-30; known on 2016-12-01; judged right by berekuk on 2016-12-01.
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Falcon Heavy test flight by November 30, 2016 ( 32% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-23; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-12-01.
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Within two months of halving, bitcoinCAD price doubles ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-17; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-01.
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S born after 1st November ( 60% confidence )
Created by penten on 2016-10-13; known on 2016-12-01; judged right by penten on 2016-12-01.