Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 46% | 64% | 63% | 73% | 88% | 98% | |
Sample Size | 93 | 90 | 144 | 143 | 508 | 165 | 1143 |
Displaying all predictions made by Bruno Parga. Filter by:
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aliens invade earth in 2023 ( 0% confidence; 21 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-12; known on 2023-12-31.
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Google still has more than 66% market share for search by 2030 ( 73% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-12-31.
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The world will end in 2078 to a nuclear holocaust. ( 8% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Fenrir on 2020-10-31; known on 2078-12-31.
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Russia to invade Israel in the next 5 years. ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-07; known on 2027-02-08.
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The USA military will use force to remove or help remove the USA government (troops in the streets or the capitol or some other institutions). ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sortega on 2022-02-10; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-01-01.
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The USA government will be removed before the end of 2022 (according to Wikipedia). ( 5% confidence; 18 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sortega on 2022-02-10; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2023-01-01.
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Russia to invade Israel by August 10th 2025 ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-07; known on 2025-08-10.
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By Feb 1, 2027, clear that massive reduction in fertility due to Covid vaccines. ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-19; known on 2027-02-02.
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New lettered variant of covid announced by February 20th, 2022. ( 21% confidence; 20 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-16; known on 2022-03-05; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-12-05.
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Russia will invade Kyiv before June 2022 ( 18% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Andref2015 on 2021-12-09; known on 2022-06-16; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-24.
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NFTs will reach mass adoption, but they will also create new layers of financial regulations, and will probably create a financial crash by 2024, where most victims will be from 3rd world countries. ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by alfredbaudisch on 2022-01-04; known on 2024-01-01.
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[No new polio cases in the semester ending] 31 December 2021 ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-23; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-12-31.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 5M ( 13% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-12-31.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 10M ( 5% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-12-31.
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The Eco is the common currency of Western African states. ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-07-06; known on 2028-01-01.
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[No new polio cases in the semester ending on] 2026-12-31 ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-07-01; known on 2027-01-01.
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[No new polio cases in the semester ending on] 2026-06-30 ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-07-01; known on 2027-01-01.
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[No new polio cases in the semester ending on] 2025-12-31 ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-07-01; known on 2027-01-01.
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[No new polio cases in the semester ending on] 2025-06-30 ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-07-01; known on 2027-01-01.
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[No new polio cases in the semester ending on] 2024-12-31 ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-07-01; known on 2027-01-01.
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[No new polio cases in the semester ending on] 2024-06-30 ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-07-01; known on 2027-01-01.
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[No new polio cases in the semester ending on] 2023-12-31 ( 6% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-07-01; known on 2027-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-09-03.
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[No new polio cases in the semester ending on] 2023-06-30 ( 4% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-07-01; known on 2027-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-08-04.
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John McAfee faked his own death ( 4% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by XORXERY on 2021-06-24; known on 2030-04-01.
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an impeachment resolution against Biden is introduced before 2023 ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by technillogue on 2021-01-14; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2023-01-01.
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By July 2021, China will invade Taiwan. The invasion will take longer than anticipated and as a result China will use biological weapons. The USA and EU will do nothing. ( 4% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Random on 2021-01-11; known on 2021-07-31; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-07-31.
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[The 2021 Ibrahim Prize will go to] nobody ( 92% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-06-30; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-04-30.
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[The 2021 Ibrahim Prize will go to] someone other than Ian Khama or Patrice Trovoada ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-06-30; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-04-30.
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[The 2021 Ibrahim Prize will go to] Patrice Trovoada ( 2% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-06-30; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-04-30.
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[The 2021 Ibrahim Prize will go to] Ian Khama ( 5% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-06-30; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-04-30.
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Trump will finish his first term as president. Note: I tried to make this prediction a few weeks ago and it didn't save. I'm a lot less confident given recent events but I'm adding it in here still for the sake of accountability and honesty. ( 68% confidence; 19 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by SeriousPod on 2017-05-17; known on 2021-01-20; judged right by SeriousPod on 2020-11-25.
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Mike Pence will become President before Joe Biden does ( 16% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by LukeS on 2020-11-21; known on 2021-01-21; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-01-21.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 40M ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-12-31.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 20M ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-12-31.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 2.5M ( 61% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-10-30.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 1.25M ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-04-30.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 750k ( 75% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-04-30.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 400k ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-04-30.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 200k ( 94% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-04-30.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 100k ( 97% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-04-30.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 50k ( 99% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-04-30.
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Both GA senate races will go Republican in January ( 63% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by LukeS on 2020-11-08; known on 2021-01-15; judged wrong by LukeS on 2021-01-08.
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If Nebraska split its electoral votes and Biden wins 270-268, the state will move to statewide winner-take-all. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-04; known on 2025-01-20.
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[The Economist predicts:] Sweden wins the Eurovision Song Contest ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01.
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If a second civil war starts/continues in the USA, and Republicans and Democrats are opposing belligerents, out of possibly more belligerents, Australia will fight on the side of Republicans. ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by najdorf on 2020-09-10; known on 2040-12-31.
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PRC troops will be on the ground in California by 31 December 2030. ( 9% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by najdorf on 2020-09-10; known on 2030-12-31.
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Texas will secede by 31 December 2030. ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by najdorf on 2020-09-10; known on 2030-12-31.
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California will secede by 31 December 2030. ( 11% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by najdorf on 2020-09-10; known on 2030-12-31.
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Joe Biden won't be on the ballot in November. ( 5% confidence; 20 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2020-09-03; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-11-19.
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North Korea will be invaded in 2022 under citations of human rights and threats of nuclear war ( 2% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by limbo on 2020-09-02; known on 2022-08-13; judged wrong by limbo on 2022-08-13.
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A COVID-19 vaccine will be generally available in the UK by March 2021 ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-09-01; known on 2021-03-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-03-15.
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[Regardless of who is president] Confidence in democracy will continue dropping (as measured by FOA and Pew). ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ragnarok_Reverted on 2020-08-30; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-12-31.
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Humans on Mars by August 30, 2045 ( 50% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-08-30; known on 2045-08-30.
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>1000 sq. mi of currently-Canadian land is under US sovereignty as of july 4 2028 ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by finback on 2020-08-21; known on 2028-07-04.
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Politics, Belarus – Lukashenko is not president anymore by end of November 2020 ( 9% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NickN on 2020-08-17; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-12-01.
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Politics, Belarus – Lukashenko is not president anymore by end of October 2020 ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NickN on 2020-08-17; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-11-01.
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Politics, Belarus – Lukashenko is not president anymore by end of September 2020 ( 28% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NickN on 2020-08-17; known on 2020-10-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-10-04.
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Politics, Belarus – Election recount or rerun with international observers occurs or is announced by the government by end of September 2020. ( 6% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-08-16; known on 2020-10-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-10-04.
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The UK administers at least 10 million coronavirus vaccines by the end of the year ( 27% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by sam_jaques on 2020-08-12; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sam_jaques on 2021-01-01.
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India and China's border dispute escalates to a battle fought more than 100 km from the border ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sam_jaques on 2020-08-03; known on 2021-08-03; judged wrong by sam_jaques on 2021-08-03.
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Russia's virus vaccine will be successful ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by peterk13 on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-09-30; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-23.
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< 35M coronavirus deaths ( 81% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by kjaques on 2020-07-31; known on 2021-07-31; judged right by sam_jaques on 2021-07-31.
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< 2M coronavirus deaths ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by kjaques on 2020-07-31; known on 2021-07-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-03-31.
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Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election ( 45% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-28; known on 2025-01-01.
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Will bitcoin ever go below 10,000 again after August 2020? ( 91% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-27; known on 2099-01-01.
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World GDP will have grown by at least 7.5% (roughly double the average since 1950) within one calendar year up to and including 2026. ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Mathieu_Putz on 2020-06-15; known on 2027-04-02.
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North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020 ( 5% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Portugal – countrywide COVID-19 vaccination campaign has started by the end of 2020 ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by LouisLC on 2020-06-06; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Donald Trump to win reelection with at least 49 US states voting for him. ( 2% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-04; known on 2020-11-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Pete Buttigieg to be] 0 ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-05.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Pete Buttigieg to be] 1 to 10 ( 75% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-09-11.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Pete Buttigieg to be] 11 to 20 ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Pete Buttigieg to be] 21 to 30 ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Pete Buttigieg to be] 31 to 40 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-16.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Pete Buttigieg to be] 41 to 51 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-16.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Elizabeth Warren to be] 0 ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Elizabeth Warren to be] 1 to 10 ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Elizabeth Warren to be] 11 to 20 ( 22% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Elizabeth Warren to be] 21 to 30 ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Elizabeth Warren to be] 31 to 40 ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-16.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Elizabeth Warren to be] 41 to 51 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-05.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Bernie Sanders to be] 0 ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-05.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Bernie Sanders to be] 1 to 10 ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Bernie Sanders to be] 11 to 20 ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-07-14.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Bernie Sanders to be] 21 to 30 ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Bernie Sanders to be] 31 to 40 ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-14.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Bernie Sanders to be] 41 to 51 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-05.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 0 ( 42% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 1 to 10 ( 55% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 11 to 20 ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 21 to 30 ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 31 to 40 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-16.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 41 to 51 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-05.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, not won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 0 ( 60% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, not won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 1 to 10 ( 36% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, not won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 11 to 20 ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, not won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 21 to 30 ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, not won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 31 to 40 ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-16.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, not won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 41 to 51 ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-05.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Joe Biden to be] 0 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-05.