Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 43% | 35% | 64% | 93% | 89% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 7 | 20 | 14 | 14 | 27 | 1 | 83 |
Displaying all predictions made by Robert Kosten. Filter by:
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Israel and Egypt at war by 2022 ( 21% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-16; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-01.
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HP MoR: Voldemort never intended Harry's own death on the night of his parents' death. ( 50% confidence; 21 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2011-09-04; known on 2015-11-02; judged right by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Sirius Black ( 12% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2011-09-04; known on 2015-11-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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Social Experiment: By 01-01-2012, the average estimate on this prediction will be greater than or equal to 50%. ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2011-11-15; known on 9999-01-02.
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Steve Jobs’s will shall donate >=50% of his wealth to charity ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Steve Jobs's will shall donate 0-10% of his wealth to charity ( 57% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Steve Jobs's will shall donate >=99% of his wealth to charity. ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Germany will not leave Euro by end of 2012 ( 92% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by procran on 2011-11-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2013-01-01.
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“Silvio Berlusconi to announce his resignation before midnight ET 30 Nov 2011” —Intrade ( 67% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12.
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As of 01-01-2013, according to the CIA World Factbook, none of the top 5 GDP per capita (PPP) countries will contain the word “democracy” or “democratic” in their government type variable. ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-01-01.
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Google+ will surpass Facebook in 2013 (in number of users and level of interaction) ( 16% confidence; 27 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by sameganegie on 2011-11-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2014-01-01.
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Greece will quit euro ( 40% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sucrenoir on 2011-11-04; known on 2011-11-19; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-19.
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LW: average IQ in survey will be at or above the 98th percentile and thus eligible for Mensa membership. ( 66% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Robert Kosten on 2011-11-01; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-04.
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LW: average IQ in survey will be 140-145. ( 33% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-11-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-04.
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In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug ( 9% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Konkvistador on 2011-10-24; known on 2039-01-01.
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Before 2012, the United States will lose its triple-A credit rating from Moody's or Fitch (or both) ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-23; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.
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Conditional on nuclear weapons being used, the target will be within Japan. ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-22; known on 2050-01-01.
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Conditional on nuclear weapons being used, the target will be within the Korean peninsula. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-22; known on 2050-01-01.
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Conditional on nuclear weapons being used, the target will be within Pakistan or India. ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-22; known on 2050-01-01.
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Conditional on the resumption of warfare, there will be <100,000 South Korean civilian casualties. ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-22; known on 2050-01-01.
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Apple will make Siri available to iPhone 4 users, before 2013. ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-22; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-21; known on 2070-01-01.
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Hacknotifier.com will get >10k visits in the next 30 days. ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by rahul on 2011-10-11; known on 2011-11-10; judged right by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-11-09.
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The PredictionBook Wikipedia article will be deleted within 2 years. ( 91% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-11; known on 2013-10-11; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-12.
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The PredictionBook Wikipedia article will be deleted within 1 year. ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-11; known on 2012-10-11; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-12.
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Average global temperature will be higher for 2012 than 2011. ( 57% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by simplicio on 2013-03-13.
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“S&P will announce before 1 July 2013 a downgrade of its France sovereign rating.” ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11; known on 2013-07-01; judged right by eagleclaw6 on 2013-11-20.
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The Prediction Book Wikipedia page will be deleted within a month. ( 60% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-11; known on 2011-11-11; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-10-12.
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The Prediction Book Wikipedia page will be tagged for deletion or deleted within 2 weeks. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-11; known on 2011-10-26; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-12.
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The GDP per capita (PPP) of Hong Kong (judged by the IMF) will exceed that of the USA before 2013. ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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The world will exist on 2012-12-22 (day after the widely hyped end) ( 99% confidence; 43 wagers; 21 comments )
Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-22; judged right by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
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As of 2012-12-21, the OPERA neutrino anomaly at CERN will not have been reproduced by anyone, anywhere. ( 87% confidence; 14 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-21; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-18.
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Consensus will be that Koomey's Law no longer applies in 25 years. ( 56% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-10; known on 2036-10-10.
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Satoshi Nakamoto is just Michael Clear and this is known before 2060 ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-10; known on 2060-01-01.
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Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060 ( 13% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-10; known on 2060-01-01.
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Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin will be inaugurated as President of Russia in 2012. ( 84% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by Grrrr on 2012-12-31.
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Third-party candidates will take at least 15% of the popular votes in the 2012 US presidential election. ( 26% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2011-10-09; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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Before 2013, a new version of NetHack (with version number > 3.4.3) will be available on nethack.org ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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CERN Faster than light neutrinos will be confirmed. and there will be new unified theories expanding Einstein's general relativity theory with a limit on some other measure rather than speed of light. ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by anandjeyahar on 2011-10-09; known on 2026-10-09; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-08-31.
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Apple smartphones will have under 30% US market share at the end of 2012 ( 70% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2011-10-09; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.
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Andrea Rossi's 1 MW plant based on his energy catalyzer invention will not succeed within a year. ( 96% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Kaj_Sotala on 2011-10-08; known on 2012-10-08; judged right by gwern on 2012-10-08.
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“About 85% of the oldest-lived companies listed have websites. I bet the ones that will fail in the next 5 years will be in the 15% that don’t have a website in 2008.” —Kevin Kelly ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-08; known on 2013-06-13; judged right by gwern on 2013-07-05.
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“I predict that by 2020 Nike will be the only remaining sneaker company” —Whutsiznaim ( 6% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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“No American Soap Operas by 2015” —Ken ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-01.
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“. The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form.” —Dan King ( 11% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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“I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.” ( 9% confidence; 26 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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the Occupy Wall Street protest will begin suffering from communicable diseases and this cause the authorities to crack down and remove them all. ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-04-01.
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'I predict…a major earthquake, magnitude seven or more will happen within twenty kilometers of a line from nagano city, nagano to matsudo, chiba' ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2011-10-13; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-13.
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Harold Camping: “the whole world…will be annihilated together with the whole physical world” ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2011-10-22; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-10-22.
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Go will not be solved in the next fifty years. ( 69% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-07; known on 2061-10-07.
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Chess will be a solved game in 50 years ( 38% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-07; known on 2061-10-07.
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Google & Samsung will announce the Nexus Prime and Ice Cream Sandwich at CTIA on 2011-10-11 ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Robert Kosten on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-10-12; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-07.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky's book on rationality will be published within 3 years. ( 46% confidence; 25 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2014-10-04; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-10-04.
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LW: Goetz's mugging post will be <= -7 in 1 month. ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-11-04; judged right by gwern on 2011-11-04.
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'Conrad Murray to be found guilty of involuntary manslaughter' [of Michael Jackson] ( 50% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-03; known on 2012-10-03; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-11-08.
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'After a six year construction period, the Kingdom Tower opens in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.' in 2017 ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-01.
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'the countries of Iceland, Macedonia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Albania and Serbia have all joined the ranks of the EU member nations' by 2018 ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-01.
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'China launches an unmanned sample return mission to the Moon' ( 52% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-01.
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M1A3 Abrams tanks deployed and operational on battlefields by 2018 ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2018-01-08.
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Apple market capitalization >=$1 trillion by 2017 ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-31.
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'A pill to prevent sunburn' is available either over-the-counter or by prescription ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-04.
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India's first manned spaceflight by 2017. ( 32% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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'Queen Elizabeth II becomes the longest reigning monarch in British history' ( 89% confidence; 27 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2015-09-10; judged right by kuudes on 2015-09-09.
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Masdar City phase 1 complete ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-21.
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'The Internet has a greater reach than television' by/during 2014 (America) ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by supinf on 2015-08-05.
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The Gaia mission will launch in 2013 ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2014-01-01.
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The ROK-U.S. Combined Forces Command will be dissolved on schedule. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2012-04-17; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.
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'Completion of the i5K project' by 2017 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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“Hypersonic airliners are entering [commercial] service” ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2030-01-01.
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“The World Bank predicts that Yemen's oil and gas revenues will plummet over the next two years and fall to zero by 2017 as supplies run out.” ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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“By 2040, less than 5% of the global population is smoking.” ( 40% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2040-01-01.
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Nintendo launches Wii 2/Wii U ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023 ( 53% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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SpaceX to successfully dock with the ISS by January 15, 2012 ( 30% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-19; known on 2012-01-15; judged wrong by kiba on 2012-01-15.
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Google + will have under 10 million users by 2013 ( 38% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Gedusa on 2011-09-14; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-04-08.
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Greece will leave the European Union by 2012 ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Gedusa on 2011-09-13; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.
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BitcoinEXpress attack on Namecoin will be successful in reversing the hashchain at least temporarily ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-13; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-30.
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The personal use of cannabis will be de jure legalized in at least one U.S state by 2020. ( 62% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Gedusa on 2011-09-13; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by roxton on 2013-01-11.
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Before 2022 UTC, any type of thermonuclear device will be detonated inside or within 6 km of Israel, Israeli-occupied territories, or West Bank, killing >= 1000 people in the first 24 hours ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-12; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-01.
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A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021 ( 29% confidence; 21 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-11; known on 2021-09-10; judged wrong by muflax on 2021-09-10.
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A professional athlete will not voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041. ( 38% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-11; known on 2041-01-01.
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There will be a major terrorist attack (>= 60 deaths) between 2011-09-10 20:00 UTC and 2011-09-12 06:00 UTC anywhere in the world except Afghanistan, Pakistan, or Iraq. ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-10; known on 2011-09-12; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-12.
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Another episode of Firefly featuring most of the original cast (whether real or emulated or CGI) will be made before 2052 ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-10; known on 2052-01-01.
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AOL & Yahoo to merge by 2013. ( 43% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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HP MoR: Eliezer will publish ch78 before 7PM PST 13 September 2011 ( 47% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-09; known on 2011-09-13; judged wrong by fergus on 2011-09-13.
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Gaddafi will be killed or captured ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Dylan on 2011-09-08; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by Dylan on 2011-09-30.
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GJP: Iran to conduct a successful nuclear test before December 31, 2012 ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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GJP: the Saudi monarchy continue to rule Saudi Arabia as of March 1, 2012 ( 93% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2012-03-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-03-01.
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GJP: Kim Jong-Il or his designated successor to be in charge of North Korea as of December 31, 2012 ( 86% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests) ( 82% confidence; 32 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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By 2030 consensus will be that low Earth orbit is undergoing Kessler syndrome. ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-02; known on 2031-01-01.
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The judge will rule that Julian Assange be extradited to Sweden after hearings in July. ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-07; known on 2011-10-01; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-11-02.
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“USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran by 30 Sep 2011” —Intrade ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2011-10-10; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-10.
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“United States to conduct overt military action against North Korea before midnight ET on 30 Sep 2011” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-30.
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“Hamas accepts Israel's right to exist before midnight ET on 30 Sep 2011” —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-30.
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Greece Will be Bankrupt within 6 months from today ( 26% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by niekjetten on 2011-06-18; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by procran on 2011-12-01.
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In the next three months, there will be no thefts of bitcoins from bitcoin end-users resulting from a the end-user's GNU/Linux system being compromised. ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by tedks on 2011-06-18; known on 2011-09-18; judged right by tedks on 2011-09-18.