Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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[Personal – my weight in kg is] <80 ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] moderately positive ( 4% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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[Personal – my weight in kg is] <95 ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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[Personal – my weight in kg is] <100 ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] strongly positive ( 1% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] moderately negative ( 15% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] mildly positive ( 15% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] strongly negative ( 10% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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[Personal – my weight in kg is] <90 ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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Personal: I still read reddit frequently ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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[Personal – my weight in kg is] <75 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence. ( 11% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-09-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by jasticE on 2020-02-01.
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Energy efficiency: T&D losses from the 22 % in 2015 to 15% by 2019 — Power Ministry Bharat ( 100% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-07; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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Top 10 by market cap coins on CMC will have more than one stable coin ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Nve on 2018-12-29; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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A single Falcon 9 Block 5 core will launch twice within 24 hours during 2019. ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-05-15; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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SPY return positive in year 2019 ( 83% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by objclone on 2019-06-20; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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Fed cut rate at least 50bps by end of 2019 ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by objclone on 2019-06-18; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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$AMZN 2019 end of year price >= $2100 ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by objclone on 2019-01-09; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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A single Block 5 Falcon 9 booster will launch 10 times during 2019. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-05-18; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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There will be a data loss incident (theft, accidental release, crash etc.) involving one billion personal records before 2019. ( 43% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Arenamontanus on 2009-10-14; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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Domestic per capita water use in the US will increase from 2010 to 2015 as reported by the USGS ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-05-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by orthonormal on 2019-12-31.
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Hendo Hoverboards indeed delivers working hoverboards by the end of the year 2015. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by orthonormal on 2014-11-01; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by orthonormal on 2019-12-31.
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US health-care expenditure >=$6 trillion in 2018 —orthonormal ( 39% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-18; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by orthonormal on 2019-12-31.
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US health-care expenditure <=$4 trillion in 2018 —orthonormal ( 1% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-18; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by orthonormal on 2019-12-31.
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US health-care expenditure is less than or equal to $5 trillion in 2018. —orthonormal ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-18; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by orthonormal on 2019-12-31.
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Donald Trump will not be impeached throughout his first term. ( 65% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Verres on 2017-12-21; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2019-12-31.
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US-China Trade War will NOT end in 2019. ( 78% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by zilong on 2019-06-02; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by zilong on 2019-12-31.
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'I expect to see an impressive proto-AGI within the next 8 years' —Shane Legg ( 20% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-31; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2019-12-31.
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“Within ten years there will be another $200 billion+ Wall Street Bailout” —James Miller ( 40% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
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Inflation rate in june 2017 higher than june 2016 in South Africa. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-12; known on 2018-03-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
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Unemployment rate in 2017 worse than 2016 in South Africa ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-12; known on 2018-03-01; judged right by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
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“Within ten years the U.S. repudiates its debt either officially or with an inflation rate of over 100% for one year” —James Miller ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
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“Within ten years either genetic manipulation or embryo selection will have been used on at least 50% of Chinese babies to increase the babies’ expected intelligence” —James Miller ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
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“Within ten years either genetic manipulation or embryo selection will have been used on at least 10,000 babies in China to increase the babies’ expected intelligence” —James Miller ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
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“Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs.” —James Miller ( 9% confidence; 20 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
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Frente Amplio will win in the 2019 Uruguayan general elections. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by daniel74f on 2016-03-19; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-30.
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Russia to be at war or to have common media reports of many troops engaging in combat in a European country other than Ukraine by the end of 2018. ( 57% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-20; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-30.
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1k PPI VR display of at least 3.5"/eye size will be in a consumer VR headset in 2019 ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by icrbow on 2017-08-03; known on 2019-12-30; judged wrong by icrbow on 2019-12-30.
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India's GDP in PPP will be roughly half that of the EU or USA in 2020. —Shane Legg ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-30.
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The Brexit Party to win more than 10 seats in a 2019 general election ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-04-22; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-30.
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Zhongguo(中国) will be world's largest economy in nominal(USD, current prices) terms by 2020. ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-02; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-30.
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Solaren delivers 200MW to california grid at any point from Space Based Solar ( 37% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-19; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-30.
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The Independent Group (TIG), or its successor party, to win more than 10 seats in a 2019 general election ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-03-08; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-30.
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Apple will discontinue the 13" Macbook Pro model that lacks the touchbar. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by quanticle on 2019-05-18; known on 2020-05-01; judged right by quanticle on 2019-12-29.
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Rian Johnson’s new Star Wars trilogy takes place before the Prequel Trilogy. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gallerdude on 2017-12-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.
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Brazil's GDP will be above its 2014 level in 2018. ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.
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Bryce Harper will sign a contract with minimum length of 10 years. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by balfours_ghost on 2018-12-20; known on 2019-02-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.
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[Baseball] The New York Mets will make the playoffs in 2019 ( 60% confidence )
Created by RedScharlach on 2019-02-15; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.
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C9 will make it out of groups. (LoL). ( 60% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26; known on 2019-10-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.
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Fnatic will make it out of group stage. (LoL). ( 60% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26; known on 2019-10-12; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.