Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 53% | 65% | 78% | 86% | 94% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 616 | 437 | 419 | 458 | 711 | 175 | 2816 |
Displaying all predictions made by JoshuaZ. Filter by:
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Google will survive for five more years ( 97% confidence; 38 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-05-19; known on 2018-05-19; judged right by NancyLebovitz on 2018-05-19.
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The US deficit will not fall below $300 billion at any point in the second term of President Obama. ( 74% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by elmerfudd1 on 2013-05-16; known on 2016-11-11; judged right by elmerfudd1 on 2016-11-15.
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There exist infinitely many primes no more than 500,000 apart, proven by 2035 ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-05-14; known on 2035-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-06-06.
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Twin prime conjecture solved by 2020 ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-05-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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Twin prime conjecture solved by 2050 ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-05-14; known on 2050-01-01.
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OOTS: Comic #887 is Elan's prophesized happy ending. ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by itaibn on 2013-05-13; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by itaibn on 2013-05-22.
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Mathematician Shinichi Mochizuki's proof on the ABC Conjecture will be verified to be valid by 2035. ( 22% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-05-11; known on 2035-01-01.
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I will score over a 2200 on my March 2012 SAT ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Isaac on 2011-10-01; known on 2012-03-20; judged unknown by Isaac on 2013-05-09.
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Conditional on civilization not collapsing, emulations will be developed sometime between 25 and 150 years from now. — Robin Hanson ( 75% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Pablo on 2013-05-06; known on 2162-01-01.
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Every planeswalker printed until 2017 will have at least one planeswalker ability that can always be used (regardless of board state or remaining loyalty). ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-05-05; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Roxolan on 2017-01-01.
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Google Chrome browser will survive 5 years ( 93% confidence; 27 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Translate will survive 5 years ( 90% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-03; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Project Glass will survive 5 years ( 57% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-03; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-28.
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Google+ will survive 5 more years ( 60% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Gmail will survive 5 more years ( 95% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Docs will survive 5 more years ( 85% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Blogger will survive 5 more years ( 72% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Analytics will survive 5 more years ( 92% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google AdSense will survive 5 more years. ( 96% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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An NFL player will come out as gay before start of the NFL 2013 regular season ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-02; known on 2013-09-05; judged wrong by phreeza on 2013-09-09.
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Bitcoin was created by aliens ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-05-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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The Opportunity rover will continue doing science (either mobile or as a fixed station) until at least December 1, 2013 ( 82% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-05-01; known on 2013-12-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-03.
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Gitmo will still be around by 2020 ( 46% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin. ( 8% confidence; 14 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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Strong evidence of life on Europa in next fifty years. ( 17% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-04-26; known on 2063-04-26.
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Anthony Weiner will be elected mayor of New York City. ( 17% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by andrevan on 2013-04-27; known on 2013-11-16; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2013-11-13.
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Tim Cook will be ousted as Apple CEO within the next 2 years. ( 31% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by andrevan on 2013-04-27; known on 2015-04-30; judged wrong by krazemon on 2015-04-30.
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4th grade SC science quiz is an actual quiz from an actual school. ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Bojidar Kojouharov on 2013-04-26; known on 2013-07-01; judged right by Bojidar Kojouharov on 2013-07-08.
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An element will be discovered with atomic number of 119 or greater before January 1, 2030 ( 59% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-04-25; known on 2030-01-01.
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In the 2016 US Presidential election, at least one Republican candidate will be publicly in favor of gay marriage and will be successful enough in the primary to get multiple delegates. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-04-24; known on 2016-09-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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Titan has two semi-connected biospheres, one on the surface, and one under the ice crust. ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-04-23; known on 2113-04-23.
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Chris Christie will run in the Republican Primary for President of the United States in 2016 ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-04-22; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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At least one conviction will occur for someone involved in the West Texas plant blast before January 1, 2015 ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-22; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2015-01-11.
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Police scanner audio will be routinely encrypted in Boston by 2016 ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-20; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2018-01-09.
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WSJ: Psy's new video Gentleman could break 1 billion views in a month ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-20; known on 2013-05-25; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-05-26.
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Elizabeth Colbert Busch (D) defeats Mark Sanford® in the upcoming SC-1 election. ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-04-18; known on 2013-05-02; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-05-08.
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At least one conviction will occur for someone involved in the Boston Marathon bombing before January 1, 2015 ( 69% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-04-18; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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HP MoR: The Hat and Cloak that interacted with Hermione is Professor McGonagall. ( 4% confidence; 20 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by cafesofie on 2012-03-25; known on 2016-04-17; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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Boston Marathon bombing perpetrated by ethnically white male. ( 61% confidence; 17 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-04-17; known on 2015-04-17; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2015-04-09.
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The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022 ( 34% confidence; 35 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-15; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by M on 2022-01-01.
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France s next president (2017 election unless Hollande resign) will be right-wing ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Osuniev on 2013-04-15; known on 2017-04-15; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-06.
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The next US president (after Obama) will also be a Democrat. ( 53% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Osuniev on 2013-04-15; known on 2016-11-15; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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Martian “dark sand cascades” are found to be evidence of microbial activity. ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-25; known on 2062-01-01.
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By 2015, evidence (such as a full-text paper) will emerge indicating that the supposed results of the 1995 Jarzombek study of US Defense software projects were in fact the result of error, distorsion or fraud rather than conclusions from an actual survey ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2013-04-13; known on 2015-01-16; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2015-08-22.
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Within two months of making this prediction, the US Senate will pass some form of bill with the stated intention of making it more difficult to buy guns (gun registry, assault weapons ban, etc.). ( 38% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-04-12; known on 2013-06-12; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-06-15.
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OOTS: While lambasting V about hir familicide, Qarr will unintentionally inspire hir to start acting. ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by itaibn on 2013-04-12; known on 2013-07-01; judged wrong by itaibn on 2013-04-26.
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The upcoming Magic: The Gathering set, Dragon's Maze, will contain at least one legendary creature with precisely four colors. ( 18% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-04-08; known on 2013-04-27; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-04-22.
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A nuclear disaster equal to or worse than Fukushima will happen this year. ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers )
Created by hedges on 2013-04-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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In 50 years, pedophilia (defined as no age restrictions on consenting partners) will be legal in at least one U.S. state. ( 1% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2013-04-04; known on 2063-04-04.
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North Korea will be in direct military conflict with another nation during this year. ( 15% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by hedges on 2013-04-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
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The Euro will not be dead by 2016 ( 94% confidence; 29 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by challquist on 2013-04-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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No US sitting US Republican Senator who is up for reelection in 2014 will come out publicly in favor of gay marriage before April 1, 2014. ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-04-03; known on 2014-04-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2014-04-01.
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Cultured meat will free 25% of land used for ranching in North America by 2035. ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Malgidus on 2013-03-27; known on 2036-01-01.
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Supremes make same-sex marriage law of the land. ( 38% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-03-27; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Patrick Brinich-Langlois on 2014-01-01.
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HPMoR: Quirrels prediction that Voldemort killed the snake in the chamber of secrets will turn out to incorrect. ( 16% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ChristianKl on 2013-03-24; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by player_03 on 2015-03-04.
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Cyprus will leave the EU before 2017 ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-03-23; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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One of the G-20 governments (or superentities like EU) will ban bitcoins before 2017 ( 54% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-03-22; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Cyprus will leave the EU before 2014 ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dhoe on 2013-03-20; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-12-31.
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Average global temperature for 2013 to be higher than for 2012. ( 56% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-03-13; known on 2014-01-15; judged right by simplicio on 2014-01-15.
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Detection of free oxygen on an exoplanet by end of the year. ( 17% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-03-12; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by phreeza on 2014-01-01.
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C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring) will hit Mars ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2013-03-02; known on 2014-11-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-10-28.
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Alex Jones will be implicated in an illicit drug scandal by the end of 2013. ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Digglerson on 2013-02-27; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.
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Alex Jones will be implicated in a sex scandal by the end of 2013. ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Digglerson on 2013-02-27; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.
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feds take down silk road within a year ,from a undercover agent selling ids and monitoring emails ( 26% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by ledzep6551 on 2013-02-26; known on 2013-07-31; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2013-07-31.
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Chuck Hagel will be confirmed as Secretary of Defense within one month of this prediction. ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-25; known on 2013-03-25; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-02-26.
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By January 1, 2014 I will have published at least one paper that involves Artin representations where I am the sole author. ( 48% confidence; 7 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-02-24; known on 2014-01-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2014-01-16.
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By January 1, 2025, it will be proven that any odd perfect number is divisible by the sixth power of some prime. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-02-24; known on 2025-01-01.
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Republican presidential candidate in 2016 to be generally perceived as immigration-friendly (described as such by a major news source). ( 30% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-20; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-08-05.
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Oscar Pistorius to be convicted of murder of Reeva Steenkamp. ( 67% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-15; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by procran on 2014-01-20.
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USA to begin phase-out of pennies by start of 2016. ( 12% confidence; 30 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-13; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-01-01.
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The next pope will be a white male. ( 69% confidence; 22 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-02-12; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by simplicio on 2013-03-13.
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Pope Benedict XVI resigned for reasons other than his health, and this will be confirmed by reliable news sources. ( 18% confidence; 18 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by stephenh on 2013-02-11; known on 2014-02-11; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-02-13.
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The recently resigned pope will announce he is an atheist ( 0% confidence; 29 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-02-11; known on 2013-05-11; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2013-05-11.
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Regardless of the outcome of the Dorner manhunt, drones will be praised for their value in said manhunt by at least one news outlet monitored by the Pew Research Center's Project for Excellence in Journalism within one year of today. ( 70% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by halfwaytogallifrey on 2013-02-11; known on 2014-02-11; judged wrong by halfwaytogallifrey on 2014-02-11.
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China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023. ( 7% confidence; 23 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-02-08; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2023-01-02.
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The Republicans will keep their US House majority after the 2014 elections ( 56% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-07; known on 2014-12-01; judged right by kuudes on 2014-11-22.
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By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000 ( 60% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-02-07; known on 2064-01-01.
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EY posts something on “The Open Problem of Loeb-Tiling AI” within three months ( 49% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2013-02-06; known on 2013-05-06; judged right by papermachine on 2013-05-06.
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EY posts something on “The Open Problem of Intelligence Explosion Microeconomics” within three months. ( 37% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2013-02-06; known on 2013-05-06; judged right by Malo on 2013-04-29.
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Obama will come to be ranked, on average, by presidential historians within two places of 17th best president. (ref: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/01/23/contemplating-obamas-place-in-history-statistically/) ( 38% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-01-26; known on 2113-01-01.
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Hilary Clinton will not be running for President in the 2016 Presidential Election ( 45% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-30; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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Yvain will mention the hand gesture the awkward turtle in http://squid314.livejournal.com/ within the next 7 days ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by beo_shaffer on 2013-01-28; known on 2013-02-04; judged wrong by beo_shaffer on 2013-02-04.
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Mandatory paternity testing in some states of the USA by 2020. ( 33% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by tomokaicho on 2013-01-28; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-02-10.
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SpaceX sends a passenger flight to Mars by 2023. ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-22; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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North Korea to conduct a nuclear test in 2013. ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-01-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-02-12.
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Israeli Elections: The new government’s coalition will include Shas. ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ygert on 2013-01-24; known on 2013-03-20; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-03-20.
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Israeli Elections: The new government’s coalition will include HaBayit HaYehudi. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ygert on 2013-01-24; known on 2013-03-20; judged right by ygert on 2013-03-20.
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Israeli Elections: The new government’s coalition will include Labor. ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ygert on 2013-01-24; known on 2013-03-20; judged right by ygert on 2013-03-20.
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Israeli Elections: The new government's coalition will include Yesh Atid. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ygert on 2013-01-24; known on 2013-03-20; judged right by ygert on 2013-03-20.
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Israeli election: The new government's coalition will include Likud/Yisrael Beiteinu. ( 82% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ygert on 2013-01-24; known on 2013-03-20; judged right by ygert on 2013-03-20.
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Steve Ballmer will be the CEO of Microsoft at the end of 2014 ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by dusk on 2013-01-24; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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Steve Ballmer will be the CEO of Microsoft at the end of 2013 ( 81% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by dusk on 2013-01-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by dusk on 2014-01-01.
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Mencius Moldbug: Bitcoin <10 cents by end of 2013. ( 7% confidence; 26 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-01-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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Binyamin Netanyahu's coalition to win Jan 22 Israeli general election. ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by simplicio on 2013-01-21; known on 2013-01-23; judged right by simplicio on 2013-01-23.
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Jon Snow alive at beginning of The Winds of Winter ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Leo on 2013-01-19; known on 2025-01-01.
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Conditional on Germany proceeding with nuclear phaseout, coal will account for a larger share of generation (in TWh/yr terms) in 2015 than it did in 2012. ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-01-18; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by alecbrooks on 2016-08-13.
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Germany to cancel phase-out of nuclear power by 2022. ( 22% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-01-18; known on 2022-02-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2022-03-12.
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EU to succeed in its target of cutting greenhouse gas levels to 20% of 1990 levels by 2020. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-01-18; known on 2020-02-01.
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The United States will reach less than 5% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years. ( 48% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Cy Fleming on 2013-01-16; known on 2028-01-16; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-06-05.
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The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years. ( 11% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Cy Fleming on 2013-01-16; known on 2028-01-16.