Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 50% | 100% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
Displaying all predictions made by esran. Filter by:
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HPMOR : The Dark Lord that Harry will vanquish is not Quirrelmort but Death itself. (http://lesswrong.com/lw/b7s/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/841h) ( 55% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Osuniev on 2013-07-31; known on 2014-07-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.
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HP MOR: “And then he greeted Death as an old friend and went with him gladly, departing this life as equals.” this is a quote from harry potter cannon. my prediction is that being marked as an equal in HPMOR refers to the invisibility cloak. ( 12% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by esran on 2013-07-28; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: The snake patronus is from Quirrell. ( 1% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-25; known on 2013-08-21; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2013-08-15.
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HP MoR: The snake patronus is from Draco. ( 90% confidence; 22 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-25; known on 2013-08-21; judged right by lavalamp on 2013-08-15.
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HP MoR: It will be revealed (either in the story or by Eliezer outside it) that it is impossible to lie in Parseltongue. ( 45% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by 75th on 2013-07-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-03.