Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 44% | 59% | 78% | 85% | 87% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 32 | 44 | 46 | 34 | 120 | 13 | 289 |
Displaying all predictions made by gimpf. Filter by:
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'In 2011, a new law will be proposed in some jurisdiction which specifically: Protects cryonics patients.' —icebrand ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-01-01.
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'In 2011, a new law will be proposed in some jurisdiction which specifically: Restricts cryonics activity.' —icebrand ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
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'SpaceX will successfully complete orbit-matching and docking with the International Space Station' —Sketerpot ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
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'There will be a second season of High School of the Dead' —Sketerpot ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.
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'75% probability of [eyewear computing] being mainstream, or at least not unusual, by 2020.' —orangecat ( 36% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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'The rate of inflation of U.S. dollars will rise.' —Costanza ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-10.
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The price of gold will fall in real terms. —Costanza ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-10.
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'Clashes between North Korea and South Korea will result in fatalities' —JoshuaZ ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
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'General AI will not be made in 2011.' —JoshuaZ ( 97% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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The US Federal Reserve is not audited by the US government in 2011. —Kevin ( 84% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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'1.8-inch and 3.5-inch [hard] disk drives will die' and 2.5 inch drives thrive in 2011 —Robert X. Cringely ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-02.
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Yahoo will spin off/sell Flickr in 2011. —Robert X. Cringely ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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CEO Steve Ballmer will not leave Microsoft's CEOship in 2011. —Robert X. Cringely ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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Facebook will be less visitors in 2011 ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Laus_CB on 2011-01-04; known on 2011-11-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-01.
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Professional sports still banning many performance-enhancing drugs. —Mike Lee ( 80% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2035-01-01.
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'By 2030, we are likely to have developed no-frills brain-machine interfaces, allowing the paralysed to dance in their thought-controlled exoskeleton suits.' —David Eagleman ( 32% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2030-01-01.
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AIDS vaccine by 2035 —Tachi Yamada ( 57% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2035-01-01.
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'We will eradicate malaria, I believe, to the point where there are no human cases reported globally in 2035' —Tachi Yamada ( 39% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2036-01-01.
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Apple will release the iPhone 5 and it will be available in white in 2011. ( 51% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-01.
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Apple will release an iPad with a built-in camera in 2011. ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-06-11.
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Oil prices at >=$120 by Jan 2012 ( 52% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-01.
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Obama's approval rating will be lower 1 Jan 2012 than 1 Jan 2011. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-10; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-10.
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Wikileaks will continue to exist as an organization through 2011. ( 89% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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On 31 Dec 2011, there will be no generally available consumer-level PC, as delivered from the factory, that has a clock speed of more than 5 GHz. ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Richard_Kennaway on 2011-01-02; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-14.
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Wikileaks will release files from a major American bank in 2011 ( 44% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.
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Wikileaks will release the AES key to their insurance file in 2011 ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.
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'Iran will test a nuclear weapon.' in 2011 —Capitol Commentary ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.
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By December 2011 at least one of Ireland, Portugal, Spain, or Italy will leave the Euro —Capitol Commentary ( 19% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-01.
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'America’s credit rating will be taken down a notch' in 2011 —Capitol Commentary ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-07.
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“By 2011 a mother will have the entire genome sequence of her unborn child from her own blood.” —Jonathan M. Rothberg ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-01.
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'I think it is probable that we could get a connectome of the human brain within 4 to 7 years.' —Mike ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known on 2017-01-06; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-06.
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“Everything goes very multi-core, even your cell phone.” by 2020 —Shane Legg ( 96% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-07.
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The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030. ( 16% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PatrickAchtelik on 2010-11-24; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by muflax on 2010-12-12.
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The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade ( 67% confidence; 22 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by kallman on 2010-11-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2021-09-10.
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Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022 ( 6% confidence; 20 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by raavin on 2010-11-18; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-12-31.
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Apple will release their desktop OS as software only before 2015 ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by raavin on 2010-11-18; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by btrettel on 2015-06-11.
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Most human workers spend the majority of their time acquiring new skills and knowledge by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 2% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Most learning is accomplished through intelligent, adaptive courseware presented by computer-simulated teachers. In the learning process, human adults fill the counselor and mentor roles instead of being academic instructors. —Ray Kurzweil ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Computers have made paper books and documents almost completely obsolete by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 16% confidence; 17 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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Wireless electricity is ubiquitous in 2026 ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-11; known on 2027-01-01.
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The United States of Africa is established by 2026 ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-11; known on 2027-01-01.
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By 2050 most computer hardware will no longer be binary. ( 18% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-10-31; known on 2050-01-01.
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In about a year this website will have more then 20 active participants per week. ( 27% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-10-31; known on 2011-10-31; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-02.
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'Vertical farms are appearing in many cities' by 2025 ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-29; known on 2026-01-01; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-09.
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'China's economy continues to boom' in 2025 ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-29; known on 2026-01-01.
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'2050 Bored in this era, millions decide to use cryonic suspension to emigrate into the future in search of adventure.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2051-01-01.
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'2045 The totally self-contained mobile home (envisaged almost a century ago by Buckminster Fuller) is perfected. Any additional carbon needed from food synthesis is obtained by extracting carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2046-01-01.
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'2040 The “Universal Replicator,” based on nanotechnology, is perfected: any object, however complex, can be created – given the necessary raw materials. Diamonds or gourmet meals can, literally, be made from dirt.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2041-01-01.
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'Existing currencies are abolished. The “mega-watt-hour” becomes the universal unit of exchange.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 0% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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'the MacBook Air in the future (18-24 months) will switch to ARM once the >2GHz ARM processors start shipping en masse' —pkaler ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-22; known on 2012-10-21; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-21.
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Before 2012 Apple will (start to) phase out the CD/DVD drives from all it's MacBooks. ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-10-16; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-02.
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PredictionBook will not be meaningfully integrated into LessWrong.com before 2011. ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-05; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-01.
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HVD have replaced Blu-Ray by 2017 ( 6% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-05; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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'Terabyte SD cards will be available' in 2014 ( 31% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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By 2014, Iran will have detonated a nuclear bomb. ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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A stem cell cure for baldness will be commercially/medically available ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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“Brain-computer interfaces allowing the paralysed to walk again” ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-01.
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“Construction of 'Ground Zero mosque' to commence before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 33% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-11; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.
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“Construction of 'Ground Zero mosque' to commence before midnight ET 30 Jun 2011” —Intrade ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-11; known on 2011-06-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-30.
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Weed will not be legalized in California for the next 5 years ( 65% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by aurasprw on 2009-10-17; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by mfb on 2014-01-13.
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Memristor products will be commercially available in 2013. ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-05; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-02.
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An alternative to using seat belts (i.e., seatbelt-less seats) will be invented for air travel by 2013. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by kochikvp on 2010-08-30; known on 2013-12-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-09-05.
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“Android-descended smartphones outnumber iPhone-descended smartphones” —dfranke ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-23; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-09.
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“Average Global Temperature for 2011 to be the warmest on record” —Intrade ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-15; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-05.
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“…a consensus emerged that there is a better than 50 percent chance that Israel will launch a strike by next July.” —Jeffrey Goldberg ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-13; known on 2011-07-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-07-31.
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“BP to enter bankruptcy in the United Kingdom before midnight ET 30 Jun 2011” —Intrade ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2011-06-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-19.
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“BP to announce before midnight ET 30 Jun 2011 it will file for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy [in US]” —Intrade ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2011-06-20; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-19.
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“BP to announce before midnight ET 31 Dec 2010 it will file for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy [in US]” —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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“BP to enter bankruptcy in the United Kingdom before midnight ET 31 Dec 2010” —Intrade ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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“A cap and trade system for emissions trading to be established before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-12-31.
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“A cap and trade system for emissions trading to be established before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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“A cap and trade system for emissions trading to be established before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“A cap and trade system for emissions trading to be established before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2010” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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“Dell's cheapest computer costs $379 (with a monitor) … in another five years, computers will be one-fourth their current price.” —Jakob Nielsen ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-11; known on 2011-11-20; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-20.
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“the entire north polar ice cap may well be completely gone in five years.” —Al Gore ( 12% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-11; known on 2014-04-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-04-01.
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“In two years, unemployment in Sweden will have risen to 12 percent.” —Anders Borg ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-11; known on 2011-04-01; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-02.
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“In five years, oil will be uncompetitive with biofuel, even at $50 per barrel, though oil will take longer to decline in price.” —Vinod Khosla ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2014-04-04; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-04-04.
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“For all practical purposes, the Mexican state won’t survive to see 2012.” —Jeff Vail ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
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by 2012 America will become an undeveloped nation, that there will be a revolution marked by food riots, squatter rebellions, tax revolts and job marches, and that holidays will be more about obtaining food, not gifts. —Gerald Celente ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
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“There is no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant [> 3%] market share.” —Steve Ballmer ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2011-03-31; judged wrong by gimpf on 2010-12-12.
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Australia will not have car factories by the end of the current recession. —Clive Matthew-Wilson ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-09; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.
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Iran will not produce a nuclear bomb before the end of 2010. —Bruce Bueno de Mesquita ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-09; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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“About 18 months from now, 80 percent of newspapers will be gone.” —Michael Wolff ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-05; known on 2011-05-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-05-01.
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“There will be no significant newspapers printed on newsprint in the US by 2012.” (By significant, he seems to mean major market with a traditionally wide circulation.) —Seth Godin ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-05; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.
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“The Obama administration will propose a Federal consumption tax, such as a VAT. “I don't think it will be very soon, but it will be within eight years' time.”" —Tyler Cowen ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-05; known on 2017-04-18; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-02-12.
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“Regarding access to the Internet: “Here's a prediction: in five years, a UN convention will enshrine network access as a human right.”" —Cory Doctorow ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-04; known on 2014-05-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-05-31.
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“Microsoft will no longer have the majority market share in 24 months” —Beth Lynn Eicher ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2011-07-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-07-07.
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“California state government will dissolve in default.” ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“By 2015 the majority of people who make predictions on this site will have had their genomes sequenced.” ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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“By 2018 the € will not be the legal currency of France, Italy and Germany.” ( 17% confidence; 14 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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“Immortal mice by 2015” ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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China will land a man on Mars by 2050. ( 43% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.
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“Music CDs compatible with current (2002) CD players will still be sold regularly in 2015.” ( 86% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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The world will not end December 25, 2012. ( 98% confidence; 28 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Houshalter on 2010-06-13; known on 2012-12-26; judged right by Qiaochu on 2012-12-26.
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At least one current member will drop out of the Euro. ( 22% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Matt Newport on 2010-06-11; known on 2011-12-17; judged wrong by faws on 2011-12-17.
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USA will be out of the Middle East by the end of 2012 ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by tjross on 2010-03-23; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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Barack Obama will get reelected in two years (not individual opinion) ( 66% confidence; 17 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by tjross on 2010-03-23; known on 2012-11-06; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.
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Cannabis will be legalised within Australia by 2012 ( 23% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by d403 on 2010-02-28; known on 2012-01-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-02.
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Inflation in US will be higher that 7% by 2012 ( 36% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by borisbrev on 2009-11-04; known on 2012-12-16; judged wrong by ledflyd on 2012-12-16.
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There will be strong evidence of technologically advanced (contemporary human level or greater) extraterrestrial life by 2016. ETA: evidence of a technologically advanced civilization existing or having existed somewhere outside our solar system. ( 6% confidence; 31 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.