Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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A non-human animal will be elected US president in 2020 ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-14; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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A fictional character will be elected US president in 2020 ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-14; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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Trump will win California in 2020 ( 13% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-02-28; known on 2021-02-28; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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President Trump will win the 2020 Election. ( 54% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by meganwhalen20 on 2019-11-11; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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Donald Trump to win reelection with at least 49 US states voting for him. ( 2% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-04; known on 2020-11-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] 20 or more ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 19 ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 18 ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 12 ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 11 ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] 10 or fewer ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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If Joe Biden wins the 2020 democratic bid for president then Donald Trump will win the 2020 election. ( 50% confidence; 29 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by jprettner on 2019-06-28; known on 2019-08-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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North Korea floats leaflets over the border to South Korea ( 58% confidence )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-23; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-11-08.
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Bars and clubs will open again in The Netherlands in 2020. ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Stucwerk on 2020-04-13; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-11-08.
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Kanye or Kim will run for President in 2020. ( 43% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ldor_11 on 2018-06-18; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by arrowinthedark on 2020-11-08.
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[Politics] Trump will be elected for a second term ( 45% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RedScharlach on 2019-02-15; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-11-07.
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Donald Trump will be elected for a second presidential term ( 52% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gurgus on 2017-08-09; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-07.
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Trump will be reelected. ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by subra on 2019-05-09; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-07.
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Donald Trump will be elected president in the 2020 presidential elections. ( 50% confidence; 18 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by korakos on 2020-04-30; known on 2020-11-05; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-07.
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Trump Approval >50% by nov 1, 2020 ( 29% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-05; known on 2020-11-07; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-07.
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Trump will win a second term ( 46% confidence; 74 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2020-11-08; judged wrong by regex on 2020-11-20.
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Donald Trump will NOT be re-elected ( 55% confidence; 26 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by tcsmithbiz@yahoo.com on 2019-12-23; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2020-11-07.
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Democrats hold House in 2020 ( 78% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Deepak on 2020-06-11; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by Deepak on 2020-11-07.
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Trump wins 2020 election ( 38% confidence; 21 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Deepak on 2020-06-11; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-11-07.
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Donald Trump will lose the next election. ( 62% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-04-03; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-11-07.
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Donald Trump will be reelected. ( 44% confidence; 22 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by alvastarr on 2018-07-26; known on 2020-11-05; judged wrong by avi on 2020-11-07.
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Trump wins a second term in office ( 48% confidence; 29 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-06-05; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by avi on 2020-11-07.
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Trump will not be re-elected in 2020 ( 58% confidence; 18 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by SeriousPod on 2018-08-02; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by avi on 2020-11-07.
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A third-party candidate gets more than 5% of the vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election ( 8% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-14; known on 2020-11-07; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-11-07.
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France to experience a Covid “second wave” in 2020 (any count of daily deaths > 800 by end of calendar year) ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2020-04-21; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2020-11-07.
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In five years, 80% of the smartphones worldwide will come from Chinese companies or Chinese acquired companies. ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by danpop on 2015-11-06; known on 2020-11-06; judged wrong by avi on 2020-11-07.
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Politics, US, California – Proposition 22 passes. ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-10-11; known on 2020-11-05; judged right by finback on 2020-11-06.
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[Trump ] dies ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by technillogue on 2020-10-02; known on 2020-11-06; judged wrong by finback on 2020-11-06.
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Donald Trump would NOT get Impeached ( 66% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by DragonGod on 2017-06-16; known on 2020-11-07; judged wrong by avi on 2020-11-06.
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Contingent on losing her appeal, Amanda Knox will be extradited to Italy to serve her sentence. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by adbge on 2014-01-31; known on 2018-01-31; judged wrong by lettergram on 2020-11-05.
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U.S. Stock Market at or above current worth through the November 2020 elections (as measured by the S&P500 – $2886.73 on June 10th 2019) ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by lettergram on 2019-06-10; known on 2020-11-05; judged right by lettergram on 2020-11-05.
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Between 100M and 200M Americans voted in the current Presidential election ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-05; known on 2020-11-05; judged right by srconstantin on 2020-11-05.
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Between 10M and 60M Americans switched to work from home during the pandemic ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-05; known on 2020-11-05; judged wrong by srconstantin on 2020-11-05.
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IHeartRadio is ad-supported or has a paid premium version ( 60% confidence )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-05; known on 2020-11-05; judged right by srconstantin on 2020-11-05.
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Apple is the largest company traded on a major stock exchange ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-05; known on 2020-11-05; judged wrong by srconstantin on 2020-11-05.
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The market cap of Apple is between $100B and $5T ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-05; known on 2020-11-05; judged right by srconstantin on 2020-11-05.
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The market cap of Uber is between $50B and $500B ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-05; known on 2020-11-05; judged right by srconstantin on 2020-11-05.
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Harris will becoming the new Democratic candidate for the office of President (due to Biden's withdrawal or some other circumstance). ( 7% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2020-09-16; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-04.
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[Politics] Trump will choose not to run for a second term in 2020. ( 14% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by KangaRookie on 2019-01-22; known on 2020-11-05; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-11-04.
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Election results declared tonight (Nov 3) by the majority of major news outlets ( 50% confidence )
Created by LukeS on 2020-11-03; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by LukeS on 2020-11-04.
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Joe Biden won't be on the ballot in November. ( 5% confidence; 20 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2020-09-03; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-11-19.
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Mitt Romney will endorse Joe Biden before the 2020 election ( 34% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-30; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-03.
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Biden will drop out of the race before election day Nov 3. ( 7% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ender Wiggin on 2020-07-27; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-03.
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Joe Biden won't be on the ballot in November. ( 5% confidence; 20 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2020-09-03; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-11-19.
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As of 2020-11-01 Denison University has COVID prevention polices that are deemed to be stricter on balance than the policies they have adopted as of 2020-08-07 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-08-07; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-11-03.