Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 33% | 0% | 83% | 100% | 67% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 3 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 19 |
Displaying all predictions made by mavant. Filter by:
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This prediction will not post successfully. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by mavant on 2014-06-30; known on 2014-06-30; judged wrong by mavant on 2014-06-30.
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This prediction will successfully post to predictionbook.com ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by mavant on 2014-06-30; known on 2014-06-30.
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something ( 20% confidence )
Created by mavant on 2014-06-30; known on 2014-06-30.
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Predictionbook allows decimal percentages in predictions. ( 9% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by mavant on 2014-06-30; known on 2014-06-30; judged wrong by mavant on 2014-06-30.
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My allergies will clear up by 02/26/2014. ( 80% confidence )
Created by mavant on 2014-02-24; known on 2014-02-26; judged right by mavant on 2014-02-26.
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Eliezer will mention/recommend the story “The Last Christmas” in the next Author's Note for HPMOR. ( 90% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ygert on 2014-01-05; known on 2014-02-01; judged right by ygert on 2014-02-02.
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I will be be waitlisted at Washington University in St. Louis Medical School within 6 weeks of my interview (11/21/13). Receiving no word by this date will be counted as an implicit waitlisting. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by mavant on 2013-11-26; known on 2014-01-02; judged right by mavant on 2014-01-02.
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I will be rejected from Washington University in St. Louis Medical School within 6 weeks of my interview (11/21/13). ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by mavant on 2013-11-26; known on 2014-01-02; judged wrong by mavant on 2014-01-02.
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I will be admitted to Washington University in St. Louis Medical School within 6 weeks of my interview (11/21/13). ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by mavant on 2013-11-26; known on 2014-01-02; judged wrong by mavant on 2014-01-02.
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[HPMOR] Dumbledore did not kill (intentionally or unintentionally) Hermione. ( 79% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by linkhyrule5 on 2013-08-16; known on 2014-07-02; judged right by linkhyrule5 on 2015-02-20.
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The Litecoin-Bitcoin exchange rate will reach 5:1 L:B or greater by 2015. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mavant on 2013-08-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Afforess on 2015-08-17.
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I will complete repairs on my motorcycle by the end of September. ( 25% confidence )
Created by mavant on 2013-08-08; known on 2013-10-01; judged wrong by mavant on 2013-11-26.
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I will complete repairs on my motorcycle by the end of August. ( 10% confidence )
Created by mavant on 2013-08-08; known on 2013-09-01; judged wrong by mavant on 2013-11-26.
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I will be admitted to at least one medical school for the class of 2014. ( 75% confidence )
Created by mavant on 2013-08-08; known on 2014-03-15; judged right by mavant on 2014-03-15.
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I will finish Judea Pearl's Causality (2nd edition) by the time it is due back to the library (8/28/13) ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by mavant on 2013-08-08; known on 2013-08-28; judged wrong by mavant on 2013-11-26.
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HPMOR : The Dark Lord that Harry will vanquish is not Quirrelmort but Death itself. (http://lesswrong.com/lw/b7s/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/841h) ( 55% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Osuniev on 2013-07-31; known on 2014-07-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.
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HP MoR: The snake patronus is from Draco. ( 90% confidence; 22 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-25; known on 2013-08-21; judged right by lavalamp on 2013-08-15.
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Google will survive for 15 more years ( 91% confidence; 29 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-05-19; known on 2028-05-19.