Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years. ( 82% confidence; 15 wagers )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-29; known on 2022-09-29; judged right by lukeprog on 2022-09-29.
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New lettered variant of covid announced by February 20th, 2022. ( 21% confidence; 20 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-16; known on 2022-03-05; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-12-05.
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[Personal] Student paper on total difference labeling/total difference chromatic numbers to be published by September 25, 2022 ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-08-05; known on 2022-09-26; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-09-26.
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There will be a driverless car available for purchase for less than $100,000 (inflation adjusted to Jan 1, 2012) in the US in 2018. ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Porejide on 2022-09-25.
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In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ( 9% confidence; 16 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-18; known on 2022-09-19; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-09-25.
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No Honduras R.E.D. will have >$100M GDP within 10 years. ( 82% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-24; known on 2022-09-24; judged right by gwern on 2022-09-24.
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Created by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-09-22; judged right by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-09-22.
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I will not drink so much soylent that I will feel sick before the end of the SERI MATS program. ( 20% confidence )
Created by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-09-15; judged wrong by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-09-17.
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I will play a video game on my laptop before the end of the SERI MATS program. ( 10% confidence )
Created by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-09-15; judged right by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-09-17.
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After the SERI MATS program, I will estimate that I would have paid all my money to participate in it. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-09-15; judged right by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-09-17.
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I will buy and use the Z3 fold as my new phone. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-09-15; judged right by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-09-17.
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I will never eat a candy bar again during the SERI MATS program. ( 5% confidence )
Created by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-09-15; judged wrong by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-09-17.
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I will use the lightcone nap room at least one more time, before the end of the SERI MATS program. ( 97% confidence )
Created by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-09-15; judged right by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-09-17.
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There will be another event at the Rosegarden Inn that I will go to during SERI MATS. ( 98% confidence )
Created by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-09-15; judged right by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-09-17.
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There will be SERI MATS 3, within 2 years. ( 82% confidence )
Created by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-07-28; known on 2024-07-28; judged right by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-09-17.
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Will I make a prediction in prediction before the end of the SERI MATS program after today. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-09-15; judged wrong by Johannes C. Mayer on 2022-09-17.
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BTC priced at or above $25,000 five years from today ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2017-09-16; known on 2022-09-16; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2022-09-16.
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[The Sweden Democrats receive more than] 23% of the votes in the 2022 election for the Swedish Riksdag ( 25% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-05-26; known on 2022-09-13; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-09-14.
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[The Sweden Democrats receive more than] 22% of the votes in the 2022 election for the Swedish Riksdag ( 60% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-05-26; known on 2022-09-13; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-09-14.
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[The Sweden Democrats receive more than] 20% of the votes in the 2022 election for the Swedish Riksdag ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-05-26; known on 2022-09-13; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-09-14.
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No danish general election will be called in the next week ( 75% confidence )
Created by mariedbuhl on 2022-09-08; known on 2022-09-14; judged right by mariedbuhl on 2022-09-14.
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What We Owe the Future will still be on the NYT best seller list until at least September 14 ( 70% confidence )
Created by mariedbuhl on 2022-09-08; known on 2022-09-14; judged right by mariedbuhl on 2022-09-14.
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[We will throw away the current data] Within 1 month ( 10% confidence )
Created by beth_b on 2022-08-01; known on 2022-09-01; judged wrong by beth_b on 2022-09-13.
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Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death. ( 6% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2017-03-17; known on 2037-03-17; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-09-08.
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House of the Dragon to have a better first episode than Rings of Power, as judged by me ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-08-19; known on 2022-09-03; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-09-04.
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Robin Hanson & Katja Grace will be in a publicly-known romantic relationship at some point in the next 10 years ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-02; known on 2022-09-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2022-09-02.
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Mind Management, Not Time Management will cross the 20,000-copies-sold threshold in (not “by”) my September 2022 income report. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kadavy on 2022-08-24; known on 2022-10-15; judged wrong by kadavy on 2022-09-02.
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Mind Management, Not Time Management will cross the 20,000-copies-sold threshold in my August 2022 income report. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kadavy on 2022-08-24; known on 2022-09-15; judged right by kadavy on 2022-09-02.
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The LW user account “Grognor” will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years. ( 45% confidence; 13 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-08-27; known on 2022-08-28; judged wrong by muflax on 2022-08-28.
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India's GDP for 2021-2022 will be higher than 2020-2021 ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sam_jaques on 2021-01-08; known on 2022-04-01; judged right by sam_jaques on 2022-08-20.
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I leave the country before mosh starts. ( 30% confidence )
Created by Wineormilk on 2022-03-29; known on 2022-06-28; judged wrong by Wineormilk on 2022-08-15.
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North Korea will be invaded in 2022 under citations of human rights and threats of nuclear war ( 2% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by limbo on 2020-09-02; known on 2022-08-13; judged wrong by limbo on 2022-08-13.
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Biden tests negative for covid again by Aug 10 2020 ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-07-31; known on 2022-08-10; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-08-10.
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I will exercise at least 5 times in the week ending August 7th. ( 55% confidence )
Created by peterbarnett on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-08-08; judged wrong by peterbarnett on 2022-08-08.
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Jeannie Marie Wagner will not admit she is wrong when revisit topic in six months https://www.facebook.com/harry.mok.3/posts/10159370606954807?comment_id=10159412084094807 ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-02; known on 2022-08-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-08-04.
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All the officers charged in the George Floyd case will be exonerated or there will be a hung jury. ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by unseen on 2020-08-05; known on 2022-08-04; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2022-08-04.
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Israel will bomb Iran in the next year. (airstrike/icbm etc. launched directly by the IDF or another Israeli entity) ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Rigulel on 2021-08-02; known on 2022-08-02; judged wrong by Rigulel on 2022-08-03.
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I will exercise at least 5 times in the week ending July 31st. ( 60% confidence )
Created by peterbarnett on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-08-01; judged wrong by peterbarnett on 2022-08-02.
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I will see my godfather next week. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Ygg on 2022-07-15; known on 2022-07-19; judged right by Ygg on 2022-08-01.
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Mind Management, Not Time Management will cross the 20,000-copies-sold threshold by the end of July 2022. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kadavy on 2022-06-24; known on 2022-08-01; judged wrong by kadavy on 2022-08-01.
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The Mind Management, Not Time Management Chirp audiobook will earn $200 in revenue through Findaway Voices the month of the HTS discount. ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by kadavy on 2022-05-27; known on 2022-08-01; judged right by kadavy on 2022-08-01.
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I'll sell at least 2,000 copies of the Mind Management, Not Time Management ebook during its BookBub Featured Deal (July 24th–30th) ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kadavy on 2022-06-24; known on 2022-08-01; judged wrong by kadavy on 2022-08-01.
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I'll sell at least 2,500 copies of the Mind Management, Not Time Management ebook during its BookBub Featured Deal (July 24th–30th) ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by kadavy on 2022-06-24; known on 2022-08-01; judged wrong by kadavy on 2022-08-01.
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I'll sell at least 3,000 copies of the Mind Management, Not Time Management ebook during its BookBub Featured Deal (July 24th–30th) ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kadavy on 2022-06-24; known on 2022-08-01; judged wrong by kadavy on 2022-08-01.
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Will I die in the next 1 minute? ( 0% confidence )
Created by devansh.r.pandey@gmail.com on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-07-28; judged wrong by devansh.r.pandey@gmail.com on 2022-07-28.
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More people in Africa will die of Anti-microbial resistant infection ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by APON on 2022-07-13; known on 2027-07-13; judged right by adil on 2022-07-20.
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As the size of a world model becomes bigger, and if preferences are distributed uniformly over that world model, do the preferences on average become more confused? ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav on 2022-07-18; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-07-18.
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As the size of a world model becomes bigger, and if preferences are distributed uniformly over that world model, do the preferences on average become less confused? ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav on 2022-07-18; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2022-07-18.
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As the size of a world model becomes bigger, and if preferences are distributed uniformly over that world model, do the preferences on average oscillate between more and less confusion? ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav on 2022-07-18; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2022-07-18.
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I'm going to write at least 15000 words for the novel idea that came to me last night in a dream by 2023. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sty.silver on 2022-07-11; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by sty.silver on 2022-07-17.