Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 62% | 76% | 80% | 94% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 300 | 260 | 195 | 249 | 347 | 149 | 1500 |
Displaying all predictions made by Jayson Virissimo. Filter by:
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Astronomers will detect a planet where alcohol is thought to rain from the sky. ( 36% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-07-12; known on 2023-01-01.
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I will within 20 years have a view of Less Wrong and its associated community as having ran into essentially the same failings that the Objectivists ran into. ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-07-09; known on 2033-07-09.
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If Will Newsome reads 'A Guide to the Good Life: The Ancient Art of Stoic Joy' by William B. Irvine within the next 3 months, then upon completing it he will not wish that he hadn't read it. ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-31; known on 2012-12-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-07-09.
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Airplanes are becoming less safe in the 2010's than they were in the 2000's in the U.S. ( 36% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-07-06; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2022-01-03.
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HPMoR : ch 90 (or sooner): Harry would have to exploit the Dementor/Patronum valnerability to gain the Dark/Light Lordship. ( 27% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by mat33 on 2012-04-01; known on 2013-07-04; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-07-02.
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HPMoR : ch 120 (or sooner): After understanding the death's place in evolution of life and mind, Harry would refuse become a Creator of the Words. ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by mat33 on 2012-04-01; known on 2015-07-01; judged wrong by David on 2015-06-23.
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Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035. ( 19% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2013-06-27; known on 2035-12-31.
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Snowden arrested by US authorities before 2014 ( 24% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2013-06-23; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-12-31.
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A 'human organ' grown in a non-human animal will be successfully transplanted into a human within 1 year. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-06-22; known on 2014-06-22; judged wrong by phreeza on 2014-07-29.
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A live-action Metal Gear movie will be released before 2020 and Kiefer Sutherland will play Snake or Big Boss. ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-06-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today – 5/31/2023 – with this individual prediction still accessible. ( 71% confidence; 29 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by FestiveBleak on 2013-05-31; known on 2023-05-31; judged right by holycow81 7 days ago.
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By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S. ( 38% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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Ubuntu will create its very own Kernel within the next five years, ( 13% confidence; 18 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by peterc on 2013-05-28; known on 2018-06-01; judged wrong by moyamo on 2018-06-13.
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Segways will make a comeback before 12/31/2016 ( 29% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-24; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Ted Nelson, inventor of hypertext: Shinichi Mochizuki is the real Satoshi Nakamoto ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-21; known on 2040-01-01.
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Google will survive for five more years ( 97% confidence; 38 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-05-19; known on 2018-05-19; judged right by NancyLebovitz on 2018-05-19.
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The Stig is Sabine Schmitz and this will be reported by a mainstream newspaper before 2020. ( 5% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-05-15; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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I will be accepted into a top 10 Economics PHD program in the following decade. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-05-08; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2021-11-02.
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Bitcoin was created by a group of programmers who called themselves “Satoshi Nakomoto” and were not employed by a state or a corporation for the express purpose of making Bitcoin ( 19% confidence; 19 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-05-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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An element will be discovered with atomic number of 119 or greater before January 1, 2030 ( 59% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-04-25; known on 2030-01-01.
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At least one conviction will occur for someone involved in the Boston Marathon bombing before January 1, 2015 ( 69% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-04-18; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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HP MoR: The Hat and Cloak that interacted with Hermione is Professor McGonagall. ( 4% confidence; 20 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by cafesofie on 2012-03-25; known on 2016-04-17; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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Boston Marathon bombing perpetrated by ethnically white male. ( 61% confidence; 17 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-04-17; known on 2015-04-17; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2015-04-09.
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The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022 ( 34% confidence; 35 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-15; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by M on 2022-01-01.
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The next US president (after Obama) will also be a Democrat. ( 53% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Osuniev on 2013-04-15; known on 2016-11-15; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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If I donate blood today, then I will feel sick within 60 minutes from finishing. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-04-11; known on 2013-04-12; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-04-11.
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Gold price will be up this year ( 53% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by tkosiba on 2013-04-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
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In 50 years, pedophilia (defined as no age restrictions on consenting partners) will be legal in at least one U.S. state. ( 1% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2013-04-04; known on 2063-04-04.
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Supremes make same-sex marriage law of the land. ( 38% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-03-27; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Patrick Brinich-Langlois on 2014-01-01.
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The Magic: the Gathering block “Theros” will be Classical/Greek/Roman/Hellenistic themed. ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-03-25; known on 2013-09-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-06-23.
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Cyprus will leave the Euro in 2013 ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by phreeza on 2013-03-21; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by hedges on 2013-12-31.
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BTC hits $100 within the year ( 65% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-03-19; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-04-01.
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I will quit my night-job before April. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-02-17; known on 2013-04-02; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-03-06.
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MetaMed to face legal challenges from regulators by 2016 (S.T. Rev via Twitter). ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-03-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2015-09-02.
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Scott, of Slate Star Codex, will land his residency ( 72% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by torekp on 2013-03-01; known on 2013-06-01; judged right by simplicio on 2013-03-11.
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Alex Jones will be implicated in a sex scandal by the end of 2013. ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Digglerson on 2013-02-27; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.
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feds take down silk road within a year ,from a undercover agent selling ids and monitoring emails ( 26% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by ledzep6551 on 2013-02-26; known on 2013-07-31; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2013-07-31.
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Silk Road: there will have been a bust (>10 named defendants) related to forged IDs eg. driver's licenses, linked to the SR vendor KingOfClubs ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-02-25; known on 2015-03-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-03-31.
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Oscar Pistorius to be convicted of murder of Reeva Steenkamp. ( 67% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-15; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by procran on 2014-01-20.
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USA to begin phase-out of pennies by start of 2016. ( 12% confidence; 30 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-13; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-01-01.
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The next pope will be a white male. ( 69% confidence; 22 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-02-12; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by simplicio on 2013-03-13.
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The recently resigned pope will announce he is an atheist ( 0% confidence; 29 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-02-11; known on 2013-05-11; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2013-05-11.
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China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023. ( 7% confidence; 23 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-02-08; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2023-01-02.
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I will have one or more offspring before 03/2013. ( 99% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-12; known on 2013-03-02.
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SpaceX sends a passenger flight to Mars by 2023. ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-22; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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Microsoft will start selling Windows 9 by the end of 2014. ( 19% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by dusk on 2013-01-24; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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Mencius Moldbug: Bitcoin <10 cents by end of 2013. ( 7% confidence; 26 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-01-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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The United States will reach less than 5% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years. ( 48% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Cy Fleming on 2013-01-16; known on 2028-01-16; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-06-05.
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The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years. ( 11% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Cy Fleming on 2013-01-16; known on 2028-01-16.
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Economic and social collapse in the United States will progress to a point that Barack Obama will use emergency powers in order to not cede the office of the President at the end of his second term, perhaps even cancelling elections in 2016. ie Empire ( 3% confidence; 32 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by thephilosiraptor on 2013-01-13; known on 2017-01-20; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-20.
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Before 2015, it will be found (by a legal or governmental authority of the USA) that Aaron Swartz's death was not suicide. ( 3% confidence; 20 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-01-13; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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By the end of 2013, the government will have never minted a trillion dollar coin. ( 94% confidence; 27 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
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If I play Deus Ex 3 in 2012, then I will rate it higher than Deus Ex 1. ( 23% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-06; known on 2013-01-01.
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In HPMOR, Harry will at some point accept that souls and/or an afterlife exists. ( 34% confidence; 17 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-01-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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Gwern has dissociative identity disorder and the identity of his split personality is Yvain. ( 0% confidence; 28 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2020-01-01.
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I will achieve all 7 of my New Year's resolutions before 2014. ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-12-31.
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I will complete every single exercise in Harry Gensler's Introduction to Logic: Second Edition with an error rate of 20% or less before 2014. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-12-31.
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During a single 24 hour period, I will write 2,200 kanji from memory with an error rate of 10% or less before 2014. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-16.
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During a single 24 hour period, I will write 48 hiragana and 48 katakana from memory with an error rate of 0% before 2014. ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-11-01.
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I will take the Spanish Language CLEP exam and will achieve a score of 55 or higher before 2014. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-12-31.
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I will perform 1 set of 25 standard pull-ups and 1 set of 250 bodyweight squats on the same day before 2014. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-01; known on 2014-01-02; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-12-31.
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My company will double its number of clients before 2014. ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-12-31.
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No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030. ( 63% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-31; known on 2030-01-01.
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No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025. ( 79% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-31; known on 2025-01-01.
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No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2020. ( 86% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-31; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2015. ( 95% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-31; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2015-01-01.
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There will be a 3Dmovie made of the Odyssey within three years. ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2012-12-29; known on 2015-12-28; judged wrong by NancyLebovitz on 2015-12-28.
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Indian Supreme Court rules in favour of Novartis. ( 34% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-17; known on 2013-03-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-04-01.
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Ozzy Osbourne and Margaret Thatcher will both die on the same day. ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by YourFriend on 2011-11-26; known on 2014-12-27; judged wrong by TheEIT on 2013-05-12.
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I will genotype my son before his 1st birthday. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-12-19; known on 2014-03-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-02-05.
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I will complete Uncharted: Drake's Fortune, Among Thieves, and Drake's Deception for PS3 in Spanish before 2014. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-12-19; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-16.
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I will complete all 994 lessons of My Spanish Coach for Nintendo DS before 2014. ( 10% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-12-19; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-16.
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New federal gun control laws will be passed in 2013 ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 22 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-12-16; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-31.
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At least one of gwern's R snippets posted to LW before December 5th, 2012 was falsified to test if any LWer actually double-checked his work. ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2012-12-05; known on 2013-01-31; judged wrong by papermachine on 2013-01-31.
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I will NOT win the power ball lotto ( 99% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rbhamilton@gmail.com on 2012-11-28; known on 2012-11-29; judged right by rbhamilton@gmail.com on 2012-11-29.
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Gangnam Style to reach 1,000,000,000 views by December 1st 2012. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bZkp7q19f0 ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Sarokrae on 2012-11-25; known on 2012-12-01; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-12-01.
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Jesus returns to planet earth before the end of 2012. ( 0% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Torquil on 2012-11-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Flipnash on 2013-08-17.
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Ender's Game will do worse than expected (4wk gross < HSX @ 122.6m) ( 54% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomMovie on 2012-11-19; known on 2013-12-01; judged right by Qiaochu on 2013-12-01.
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If I donate blood today, then I will feel sick within 60 minutes afterwards. ( 66% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-11-15; known on 2012-11-16; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-11-16.
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“The United States will overtake Saudi Arabia as the world’s leading oil producer by about 2017 and will become a net oil exporter by 2030.” -International Energy Agency ( 55% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-11-13; known on 2030-01-01.
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“The United States will overtake Saudi Arabia as the world’s leading oil producer by about 2017.” -International Energy Agency ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-11-13; known on 2017-01-01.
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I will receive a certificate of completion for ‘Think Again: How to Reason and Argue’. ( 25% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-11-13; known on 2013-03-02; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-03-04.
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IEA: By 2035, Iraq's output rate will rise to more than 8 million barrels [per day], overtaking Russia to become the world’s second-largest exporter. ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-12; known on 2035-12-31.
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IEA: US to overtake Russia as the leading producer of natural gas in 2015. ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-12; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2015-01-21.
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IEA: US to become net oil exporter by 2030 ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-12; known on 2030-01-01.
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IEA: US to become world's top oil producer in 5 years ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-12; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2015-05-11.
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Obama's approval rating will exceed 55% on average for the next 12 months (Nov 12 -> Nov 13) ( 46% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-12; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-16.
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The 2016 presidential election will be Jeb Bush v. Hillary Clinton. Yes, again! ( 14% confidence; 27 wagers; 16 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07; known on 2016-11-30; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-02-21.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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New Star Wars movie will be better than Phantom Menace and Attack of the Clones ( 70% confidence; 20 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-02; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-12-28.
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The death toll from hurricane Sandy will be lower than that from Katrina. ( 88% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Matt on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-11-29; judged right by Matt on 2012-11-29.
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Mitt Romney will win the popular vote in the 2012 US election ( 37% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-26; known on 2012-11-10; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-08.
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By 2025, at least one major world city will have a restaurant featuring 3D printed food. ( 69% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-25; known on 2025-01-01; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2015-03-23.
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Assuming Obama wins second term, repubs will try to impeach him sometime during the his second term ( 11% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-24; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ( 26% confidence; 15 wagers; 25 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-21; known on 2060-01-01.
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By the end of 2013, I will have made at least 500 predictions on PB.com. ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2012-10-15; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2014-01-03.
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I will post a formal version of my primary argument for simulation-theism on Less Wrong before 2014. ( 30% confidence; 38 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-10-14; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-16.
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A paper written or co-written by me is accepted for publication in the journal “Information Sciences” by 2013. ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2012-10-13; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2014-01-03.
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I will complete Remembering the Kanji 1 before 2014. ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-10-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-16.
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They'll clone a Neanderthal (or other species of primitive human) by 2040 ( 24% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-06; known on 2050-12-31.