Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 50% | 71% | 75% | 86% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 14 | 7 | 46 |
Displaying all predictions made by leo_gri. Filter by:
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Trump's Gallup approval be 39% or higher for August 1 – 3 (2017) ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by leo_gri on 2017-08-02; known on 2017-08-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-30.
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Rey is a reincarnated Anakin Skywalker ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-01; known on 2018-06-02; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2017-12-21.
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macron president 2017 ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by leo_gri on 2016-04-14; known on 2017-07-02; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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Macron candidat 2017 ( 12% confidence )
Created by leo_gri on 2016-03-21; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by leo_gri on 2017-01-01.
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Dilma Rousseff will be president of Brazil until 2018 ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by daniel74f on 2016-03-20; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by jesseh on 2016-11-10.
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Alain Juppé wins the “Les Republicains” primary (France). ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by leo_gri on 2016-03-14; known on 2016-11-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-29.
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Guy who charged stage at trump rally below is not actually a secret trump plant. ( https://twitter.com/virtadpt/status/709184534995075072 ) ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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At least one senator or representative to change parties before the election. ( 19% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-07; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-12-03.
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Bachar el Assad will lose power before the end of 2016 ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by leo_gri on 2016-03-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-01.
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Tsipras will lose power before the end of 2016 ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by leo_gri on 2016-03-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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Bouteflika will lose power before the end of 2016 ( 9% confidence )
Created by leo_gri on 2016-03-05; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by leo_gri on 2017-01-01.
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Dilma Roussef will lose power before the end of 2016 ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by leo_gri on 2016-03-05; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by leo_gri on 2016-06-13.
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Nicolas Maduro will lose power before the end of 2016 ( 9% confidence )
Created by leo_gri on 2016-03-05; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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Salmane ben Abdelaziz al-Saoud (Arabie Saoudite) will lose power before the end of 2016 ( 2% confidence )
Created by leo_gri on 2016-03-05; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by leo_gri on 2017-01-01.
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Christie disavows support for Donald Trump before the election. ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-02; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Cabinet appointment for Bernie Sanders. ( 20% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-02; known on 2017-03-02; judged wrong by ospond on 2017-03-06.
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Bernie will drop out before Ohio & Florida primaries. ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-03-16; judged wrong by Temeraire on 2016-03-16.
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The big Short will win best picture oscar ( 40% confidence )
Created by leo_gri on 2016-02-27; known on 2016-02-28; judged wrong by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-29.
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The Big Short win the best film award ( 60% confidence )
Created by leo_gri on 2016-02-24; known on 2016-02-28; judged wrong by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-29.
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@realDonaldTrump will be suspended from Twitter for a week or longer before 2017 ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-22; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-31.
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No terrorist attack in the USA will kill > 100 people during 2016 ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Temeraire on 2016-02-22; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by leo_gri on 2017-01-01.
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By 2030, Taiwan will be a part of China, without being a war. ( 15% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by danpop on 2016-02-11; known on 2030-01-01.
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AlphaGo wins 5-0 in march ( 55% confidence; 34 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2016-02-02; known on 2016-03-30; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-13.
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Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally. ( 10% confidence; 17 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-29; known on 2022-12-25.
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Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus. ( 99% confidence; 23 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-29; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2023-01-01.
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AlphaGo defeats Lee Sedol in 3/5 or more games in March ( 64% confidence; 76 wagers; 39 comments )
Created by Jach on 2016-01-28; known on 2016-04-01; judged right by Jach on 2016-03-12.
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Any EU member state declares war against other EU member state during this prediction. (wars from archives don't count, has to be new declaration of war) ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers; 16 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-01.
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Sweden declares war against any EU member state ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-01.
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PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020 ( 83% confidence; 40 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Bernie Sanders to still be in the race by March 8th, 2016 ( 77% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-06; known on 2016-03-08; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-08.
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Bernie Sanders to win the Democratic nomination. ( 18% confidence; 66 wagers; 38 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-02; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-10.
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Between now and April 22nd, 2016 There will be large-scale riots in major US cities, gun confiscation in rural areas, and a financial crisis, possibly not all at once or in that precise order. ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-22; known on 2016-04-21; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-04-21.
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Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project. ( 1% confidence; 27 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-08-12; known on 2024-08-12.
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Barack Obama to attempt to run for a third term as President (either through Constitutional amendment or other method). ( 0% confidence; 41 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-24; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022 ( 34% confidence; 35 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-15; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by M on 2022-01-01.