Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 53% | 65% | 78% | 86% | 94% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 616 | 437 | 419 | 458 | 711 | 175 | 2816 |
Displaying all predictions made by JoshuaZ. Filter by:
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The four main supermarket chains of the United Kingdom (Tesco, Asda, Morrison's and Sainsbury's) will all be solvent by the end of 2015. ( 86% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by doxievee on 2015-02-01; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2016-01-05.
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NATO and Russia will not have exchanged fire by the end of 2015. ( 83% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by doxievee on 2015-02-01; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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Islamist militants will cause one or more deaths in the UK, Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark, Spain, Portugal, or Italy before or at 23:59 on the 31st March 2015 (per @MWStory). ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by doxievee on 2015-02-01; known on 2015-04-01; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-14.
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Following the 2015 UK general election, a single party will hold a majority in the House of Commons. ( 30% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by doxievee on 2015-01-31; known on 2015-05-08; judged right by kuudes on 2015-05-08.
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Following the 2015 UK general election, no party will hold a majority; furthermore, no two parties combined will hold a majority, with the exception of a 'grand coalition' between Labour and the Conservatives. ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by doxievee on 2015-01-31; known on 2015-05-08; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-05-08.
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By January 1st, 2025, the US employment/population ratio will be 60% or under. ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-31; known on 2025-01-01.
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“People Will Spend the Majority of Waking Time in Virtual Reality by 2020” – Zack Kanter (http://goo.gl/ZlE6LS), taken to mean that the majority of Americans' waking hours will be spent in virtual reality in the year 2020 (not including augmented reality) ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by benwr on 2015-01-29; known on 2021-01-02; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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U of Maine (Orono) will be closed tomorrow due to snow. ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-26; known on 2015-01-27; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-27.
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Greece, will still have the Euro at the end of 2016 ( 66% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Chri on 2015-01-26; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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Contingent on him being nominated for President by the GOP, Rand Paul will be elected President of the United States in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election. ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Faceh on 2015-01-25; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by Faceh on 2016-11-28.
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Harry Dresden will be infected with Nemesis at some point in The Dresden Files series (if the series is completed by Jim Butcher). ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by twmccart on 2015-01-23; known on 2024-06-16.
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Milestone 4 as discussed at http://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=2155 will be achieved by 2028. ( 65% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-20; known on 2029-01-01.
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By April 1 either at least one user on LW will be either banned or publicly reprimanded for abusing the karma system or it will be determined that Eugine_Nier is still using multiple accounts to push the karma system in a way that strongly favors his poli ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-20; known on 2015-04-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-01.
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US Supreme Court to rule in favor of gay marriage. ( 76% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-06-26.
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Mitt Romney will run for president again in 2016. ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by woodse on 2015-01-15; known on 2016-10-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-10-01.
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The UK will have another coalition government after the election in 2015 ( 56% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RogerE on 2015-01-15; known on 2015-05-08; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-05-08.
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A nuclear bomb (primary, not dirty) will be detonated, anywhere on earth, immediately killing more than 100 people, any time between 2015/1/1 and 2020/1/1. ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by brandyn on 2015-01-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-01-01.
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“there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years.” – Scott Adams ( 20% confidence; 11 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-01-13; known on 2035-01-13.
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North Korea’s government will not collapse (whether due to revolt/civil war, or war with another country) before Dec 31, 2015. ( 93% confidence; 20 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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In 2015 there will not be any terrorist attacks in the US that kill more than 40 people. ( 85% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01.
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We will end the year with an unemployment rate > 6% in the US. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01.
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I will be a vegetarian or pescetarian at the end of the year. ( 92% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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Republican VP candidate in 2016 will be Nikki Haley. ( 23% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2015-01-10; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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A's bike will get stolen or lost in 2015. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by adri on 2015-01-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by adri on 2016-12-04.
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MazeHatter will have a total negative karma score on LW on Feb 15, 2015 ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-07; known on 2015-02-15; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-27.
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HPMOR: The ritual Quirrell mentions in chapter 74 using a rope that has hanged a man and a sword that has killed a woman will be used to create a dementor. ( 21% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2012-09-17; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by player_03 on 2015-03-16.
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HPMOR: The ritual Quirrell mentions in chapter 74 using a rope that has hanged a man and a sword that has killed a woman will be revealed to create a dementor when cast. ( 56% confidence; 19 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2012-09-17; known on 2016-01-02; judged right by Osuniev on 2015-03-28.
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The SNP will get the most seats in Scotland next General Election ( 81% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-04; known on 2015-06-16; judged right by splorridge on 2015-06-16.
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Vladimir Putin will be president of Russia as of 1st January 2016 ( 91% confidence; 18 wagers )
Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by btrettel on 2016-01-01.
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Queen Elizabeth II will announce her abdication before 1st January 2016 ( 10% confidence; 18 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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At the end of the year, AMF will still be a GiveWell recommended charity. ( 78% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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HP MOR: It will be revealed that Harry rederived the Pythagorean Theorem, on a Thursday, before April, and that it was fun ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by solipsist on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-03-14; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.
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In the next book in the Twenty-Sided Sorcererss series It will turn out that there is some connection between Jade and dragons. ( 65% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-02; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-30.
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The prophecy in HPMR refers to Harry and Death, not Harry and Voldemort. ( 13% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-23; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.
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HP MOR: EY already planned to incorporate the Peverell tombstone quote before Raemon asked him. ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by HonoreDB on 2016-02-13.
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HP MoR: Hat & Cloak is Voldemort, but not Quirrel ( 23% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-03-16; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Harry will create a superintelligent AI using magic or magical objects ( 9% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: the original Quirrel killed his parents ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Quirrel believes that Harry's stone is the Resurrection Stone ( 28% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they magically modified the memory of the witnesses Rita relied on to write the article ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-06-20.
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HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they used Muggle technology to forge the documents ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-03-07.
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HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they used Polyjuice Potion to submit the hoax article under Rita Skeeter's name ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-03-07.
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HP MoR: Bacon's diary is a Horcrux made by Quirrel when he killed Rita Skeeter ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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HP MoR: Bacon's diary is a Horcrux ( 27% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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HP MoR: Dumbledore possesses the Elder Wand as of chapter 83 ( 85% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: A Deathly Hallow besides the Cloak will appear in the possession of a character in the present-day at some point ( 92% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: Severus Snape will go back to the dark side, such as working for Voldemort ( 38% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-13.
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HP MoR: the Philosopher's Stone will be mass-manufactured by Harry or at his behest ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: 5 Voldemort Horcruxes are where Harry suggested putting hidden things in ch46 ( 61% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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HP MoR: someone will be mentioned or shown using the Imperius curse on themselves (or consenting to another's use on them) to supplement their willpower (dieting, working hard, etc.) ( 32% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry/Hermione will be the only romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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Ron will not be involved in any romantic relationship in the Methods of Rationality. ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by from3004 on 2015-07-31.
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HP MoR: There will be at least one onscreen polyamorous relationship in the Methods of Rationality. ( 30% confidence; 15 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Methods of Rationality will have an arc/chapter involving Harry getting a harem. ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-20; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by NancyLebovitz on 2015-01-01.
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Scott Aaronson will not make a “tearful apology” for either Comment 171 or for any related remarks that he has made as of 9 AM December 31. ( 78% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-31; known on 2015-01-25; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-25.
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By 2025, autism rates in the US will surpass 50% for children. ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-30; known on 2026-01-01.
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I'll be able to stick to my 2015 New Year resolution of 'no potato chips or french fries' till Dec 31, 2015. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by roshni on 2014-12-30; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by roshni on 2016-01-15.
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Italian ferry death total to reach at least 15 by January 3rd ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-29; known on 2015-01-03; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-03.
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A mundane, accepted explanation for the apparent imaginary mass of neutrinos will be found by 2020 that does not involve the neutrinos actually having imaginary mass (e.g. some form of systematic error). ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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Consensus will be that electron neutrinos have imaginary mass 2025. ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-27; known on 2025-01-16.
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By 2045, at least one of the following will occur: group isomorphism in P^factoring/poly, integer factoring in P^GI/poly, group isomorpism in BQP. ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-25; known on 2045-01-01.
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General consensus that North Korea is behind the Sony hack attack by January 1, 2016 ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-20; known on 2016-01-01.
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Busy beaver number for 6 found by 2020. ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-20; known on 2020-01-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-20.
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u(1/2)<=.15 by 2045. Here mean u(1/2) in the Lindelof hypothesis. ( 95% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-19; known on 2045-01-01.
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A general factoring algorithm better than the number field sieve by 2035 ( 65% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-19; known on 2035-01-01.
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At least one substantial improvement on the finite group isomorphism problem will occur before 2035. ( 95% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-19; known on 2035-01-01.
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By January 1, 2019 War between North Korea and at least one of the US, Britain, China, Japan, South Korea, or the collapse of the North Korean government. ( 25% confidence; 15 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-19; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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The Queen will formally abdicate this year ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-12-18; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2016-01-05.
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Zero humans will set foot on Mars before 2100 ( 34% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by dvolk on 2014-12-17; known on 2100-01-01.
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Brent crude above $100/barrel at the beginning of 2016. (http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/crude-oil-brent.aspx) ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2014-12-15; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-03.
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At least one of my calculus students will complain to me about their final grade by January 5th ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-15; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-20.
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Phthalate exposure in utero link to reduced intelligence to be confirmed/replicated by at least two other studies by January 1, 2024 ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-15; known on 2024-01-01.
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The FTSE 100 will be over 9000 on January 16th 2016 ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-13; known on 2016-01-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16.
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The FTSE 100 will be valued at over 6100 in January http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/indices/summary/summary-indices.html?index=UKX ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-11; known on 2015-01-16; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-16.
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I will win at least one additional Giantitp PrC contest before March 2016. ( 55% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-10; known on 2016-03-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-01.
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Part or all of the removal of Lewin's videos will be reversed within 1 year. ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-10; known on 2015-12-10; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-12-11.
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By 2045, a superconductor which has a critical temperature of at least 225 K will be discovered. ( 80% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-09; known on 2045-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2020-10-15.
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Sunderland will beat/draw against West Ham ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-09; known on 2014-12-14; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-14.
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HPMOR – Hat & Cloak is one of Dumbledore, Quirrel, Voldermort, Future Harry, Lucius Malfoy, Nicholas Flamel, Baba Yaga, Severus Snape, Sirius Black, Peter Pettigrew, Gilderoy Lockhart, Grindelwald, Narcissa Malfoy, one of Hogwarts' founders, MadEye Moody, ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-08; known on 2015-03-16; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-13.
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At least 40% of my Calc I class will get at least one bonus question. ( 55% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-07; known on 2014-12-25; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-25.
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I will assign between 10-30% of my Calc I students this semester. a grade of C- or lower. ( 75% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-07; known on 2014-12-25; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-26.
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The solar cell efficiency record will be at 60% by January 1st, 2035. ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-12-06; known on 2035-01-01.
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Mercury will not exist anymore by January 1st 2214. ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-12-06; known on 2214-01-01.
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Lib Dems win Cambridge at next election. ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-12-06; known on 2015-05-07; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
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I will do the gig on the 20th ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-05; known on 2014-12-21; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-21.
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I will make at least one discussion level post on Less Wrong before January 15th ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-05; known on 2015-01-15; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-27.
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Terminator Genisys will outperform Terminator Salvation in terms of gross box office take. ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-05; known on 2015-09-20; judged right by Afforess on 2015-09-12.
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Democrats to gain control of the US Senate in the 2016 elections. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-04; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Finite group isomorphism problem found to be in P by 2045. ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-04; known on 2045-01-16.
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I will have my students' final grades in by December 21st. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-04; known on 2014-12-22; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-22.
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A polynomial time factoring algorthim (on a classical computer) will be discovered by 2045. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-04; known on 2045-01-16.
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I won't work somewhere where I have to wear something more fancy than jeans in the next 5 years. (Jason said he thinks I will) ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2014-12-03; known on 2019-12-03; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2019-12-03.
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There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020. ( 63% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-12-03; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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My PredictionBook clone will have basic functionality (create predictions, assign probabilities, make judgments, and a tutorial showing how to do each) before 12/15/2014. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-12-01; known on 2014-12-15; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-12-04.
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We'll have another dot-com boom by 2016 (NASDAQ reaching 5k) ( 50% confidence; 9 wagers; 16 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-10; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2015-03-06.
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In hindsight, Uber valued at $40b will be identified as the one of key triggers of the 2014-2016 bubble. ( 30% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2014-11-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.
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Ebola has killed fewer than 1000 people in the US or Canada by November 2015 ( 95% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by LogicalOxymoron on 2014-11-22; known on 2015-11-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-11-01.
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The Republicans will repeal the ACA by November 2015. *I'm going to withdraw this prediction as I wasn't thinking that the Republicans do not hold enough seats to override a presidential veto. ( 23% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by ren on 2014-11-11; known on 2015-11-08; judged wrong by NathanMcKnight on 2015-11-04.
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HPMOR: By the end of the story, it will turn out that the troll actually killed Hermione. ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Mathias Zaman on 2014-11-19; known on 2015-04-15; judged right by Mathias Zaman on 2015-03-11.
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The US Supreme Court will rule in favor of the government in King v. Burwell ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-11-14; known on 2015-11-15; judged right by kuudes on 2015-09-09.