Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Reddit to be blocked in China by August EOM ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-07-16; known on 2018-09-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.
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Less Wrong renaissance attempt will seem less (rather than more) successful by end of 2017 ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-15; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2018-08-30.
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The Schengen Agreement will be terminated within 5 years. ( 26% confidence; 15 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by danpop on 2015-08-29; known on 2018-08-29; judged wrong by sdr on 2018-08-29.
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E and I will break up before planned holiday together in July ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2018-01-09; known on 2018-07-28; judged wrong by splorridge on 2018-08-28.
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I am unemployed for at least 1 month before grad school ( 60% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-08-28; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-08-28.
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I rent a place in Arizona ( 90% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-08-28.
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I move to Pennsylvania ( 70% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-08-28.
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I do not get a job doing pure research before grad school starts ( 60% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-08-28; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-08-28.
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[No new polio cases in the semester ending] 31 December 2018 ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-23; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-08-27.
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Bill predicts that the phrase “0-caching” or “n-caching” will become common hip teen slang by 2018 ( 16% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by optimistindustries on 2013-08-03; known on 2018-08-03; judged wrong by enolan on 2018-08-27.
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Within five years, Gwern will be hired as a “statistician columnist” by a mainstream blog; “mainstream blog” is defined as a blog with no less than 1/6th of the annual traffic theverge.com currently gets. ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by halfwit on 2013-07-13; known on 2018-07-14; judged wrong by enolan on 2018-08-27.
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Alexis up before 12 ( 94% confidence )
Created by rk on 2018-08-26; known on 2018-08-26; judged right by rk on 2018-08-26.
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The crack machine will be completed in 24 man hours. https://mojagear.com/journal/2016/05/23/build-home-crack-machine/ ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by astier on 2018-08-13; known on 2018-08-24; judged right by astier on 2018-08-24.
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UK politics: Boris Johnson returns to May's cabinet in the next month ( 30% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2018-07-10; known on 2018-08-10; judged wrong by bm on 2018-08-17.
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My relationship with my girlfriend lasts at least until the end of 2018 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by avi on 2018-06-12; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by avi on 2018-08-13.
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Snokes is not Darth Plegueia ( 95% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by artir on 2016-03-08; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by moridinamael on 2018-08-13.
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In the next 3 years, someone will use goodai.com's AI framework to build an AI that will be dangerous and/or powerful enough that the US government will acknowledge it as a major problem. ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by timujin on 2015-07-09; known on 2018-07-09; judged wrong by moyamo on 2018-08-12.
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Politics, US – An additional state after Illinois ratifies the Equal Rights Amendment by the end of July 2018. ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-08; known on 2018-08-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-08-12.
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Politics, US – New Hampshire Governor signs HB 1319 before the end of June 2018. ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-02; known on 2018-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-08-12.
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Business, UK – Northern restores all cancelled daily rail services by the end of the 1st of August 2018. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-02; known on 2018-08-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-08-12.
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Politics, World – EU applies retaliatory tariffs to imports from the US by end of July 2018. ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-02; known on 2018-08-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-08-12.
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Personal – I eliminate chicken meat from my diet for almost all my meals made either by myself (including instant meals) or by a restaurant or takeaway by June 2018. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-29; known on 2018-07-16; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-08-12.
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Personal – I eliminate chicken meat from my diet for almost all my meals made either by myself (including instant meals) or by a restaurant or takeaway by June 2018. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-29; known on 2018-07-16; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-08-12.
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Politics, US – A bill restoring the DACA programme is voted on by the House of Representatives before the end of June 2018. ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-12; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-08-12.
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Politics, UK – Bill specifically illegalising upskirting passes the House of Commons before the end of July 2018. ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-16; known on 2018-08-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-08-12.
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Politics, US – The US Federal government announces that the policy of separating migrant children from their parents as a routine practice is to be ended before the end of July 2018. ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-16; known on 2018-08-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-08-12.
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Personal, Social – I go to the AW social group on 2018-08-09. ( 73% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-07-05; known on 2018-08-10; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-08-12.
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Politics, UK – Permission is granted or objections withdrawn by the Home Office to permitting Billy Caldwell to have a prescription for a THC-containing medical product before the end of July 2018. ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-16; known on 2018-08-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-08-06.
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OpenAI will defeat the Dota2 team ( 60% confidence )
Created by shardo on 2018-08-05; known on 2018-08-06; judged right by shardo on 2018-08-06.
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OpenAI Five will win the upcoming benchmark match ( 67% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by enolan on 2018-07-24; known on 2018-08-05; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-08-05.
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The Ebb sleep product will be available to easily buy within the next 3 months. ( 30% confidence )
Created by dnti808 on 2018-05-03; known on 2018-08-03; judged right by dnti808 on 2018-08-04.
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At least one of the Mercury astronauts to become a centenarian ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-08-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-08-03.
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I have exercised 150 days this year. ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-11; known on 2018-10-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-08-02.
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Microsoft will not buy Valve ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by enolan on 2018-01-30; known on 2018-07-30; judged right by enolan on 2018-07-30.
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MoV in GA GOP gov primary over 20% ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by elephantower on 2018-07-30; known on 2018-07-30; judged right by elephantower on 2018-07-30.
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shafer wins lt gov primary ( 90% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2018-07-30; known on 2018-07-30; judged wrong by elephantower on 2018-07-30.
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McBath wins GA-07 Dem primary ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by elephantower on 2018-07-30; known on 2018-07-30; judged right by elephantower on 2018-07-30.
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david kim wins primary in ga-07 ( 30% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2018-07-19; known on 2018-07-26; judged wrong by elephantower on 2018-07-30.
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Leslie Roy “Les” Moonves is accused of sexual harassment/assault by at least one woman ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2018-02-11; known on 2020-02-11; judged right by two2thehead on 2018-07-28.
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HP MoR: Harry will, at some point in the story or an epilogue, literally tear apart stars (for star lifting purposes perhaps), and this is what the “tear apart the very stars in heaven” phrase in the prophecy was referring to. ( 62% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-28; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-31.
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UK Politics: Another cabinet resignation this week ( 56% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2018-07-10; known on 2018-07-15; judged wrong by splorridge on 2018-07-25.
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I am currently doing the “Convict Conditioning” training program. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-07-26; known on 2018-07-21; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2018-07-23.
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Sankar is currently less than 10 posts into the book ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by shardo on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-05-19; judged right by shardo on 2018-07-23.
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Kawhi Leonard will be on the Spurs as of September 2019 ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-24; known on 2019-09-01; judged wrong by davatk on 2018-07-19.
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dc min wage referendum passes ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by elephantower on 2018-07-17; known on 2018-07-17; judged wrong by elephantower on 2018-07-17.
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I lose weight (current weight @ 170) ( 60% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-07-16.
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Germany to win the World Cup ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-20; known on 2019-07-16; judged wrong by Cato on 2018-07-16.
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Results about my two unjudged wagers to remain unannounced in through June EOM. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2018-06-19; known on 2018-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2018-07-16.
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Results about my two unjudged wagers to remain unannounced in through June EOM. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2018-06-19; known on 2018-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2018-07-16.
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Iran to win the World Cup ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-20; known on 2018-07-16; judged wrong by Cato on 2018-07-16.