Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 53% | 65% | 78% | 86% | 94% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 616 | 437 | 419 | 458 | 711 | 175 | 2816 |
Displaying all predictions made by JoshuaZ. Filter by:
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The Opportunity rover will continue doing science (either mobile or as a fixed station) until at least May 1, 2013 ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-16; known on 2013-05-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-05-01.
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By end of 2015, the 1984 Computer Fraud and Abuse Act would have been amended to remove Terms of Service violations ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-01-16; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-29.
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By end of 2014, DA Carmen Ortiz will no longer be US Attorney for Massachusetts. ( 20% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-01-15; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.
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The US government will not have defaulted by the end of 2013. ( 96% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-15; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
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By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI. ( 6% confidence; 24 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2021-01-01.
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By the end of 2013, the total number of predictions on predictionbook.com will exceed 15,000. ( 80% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13; known on 2013-12-30; judged right by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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Economic and social collapse in the United States will progress to a point that Barack Obama will use emergency powers in order to not cede the office of the President at the end of his second term, perhaps even cancelling elections in 2016. ie Empire ( 3% confidence; 32 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by thephilosiraptor on 2013-01-13; known on 2017-01-20; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-20.
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Before 2015, it will be found (by a legal or governmental authority of the USA) that Aaron Swartz's death was not suicide. ( 3% confidence; 20 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-01-13; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028 ( 8% confidence; 18 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-12; known on 2028-12-31.
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The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be <50 years old at his inauguration. ( 22% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-01-11; known on 2032-11-10.
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The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be 50-60 years old at his inauguration. ( 44% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-01-11; known on 2032-11-10.
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The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be >60 years old at his inauguration. ( 40% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-01-11; known on 2032-11-10.
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Google will be selling flying cars by December 2016 ( 3% confidence; 25 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-01-10; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by neilscott on 2016-11-26.
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Barack Obama will be assassinated in 2013 ( 1% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-01-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable “in ten thousand years, or so” ( 19% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by sdr on 2013-01-09; known on 9999-01-01.
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By the end of 2013, the government will have never minted a trillion dollar coin. ( 94% confidence; 27 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
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We're jumping off the Fiscal Cliff. Whee! ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-12; known on 2013-01-15.
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Homicide rate per 100,000 in Canada to be lower in 2013 than in 2012. (Deciding source: StatCan) ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by simplicio on 2013-01-02; known on 2013-03-01; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
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In HPMOR, Harry will at some point accept that souls and/or an afterlife exists. ( 34% confidence; 17 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-01-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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Gwern has dissociative identity disorder and the identity of his split personality is Yvain. ( 0% confidence; 28 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2020-01-01.
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The spot price of silver will be $50/troy oz. or more at some point before December 31, 2013. ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by dakyne on 2013-01-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.
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The spot price of gold will exceed $2000/troy oz. at some point before December 31, 2013. ( 36% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by dakyne on 2013-01-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.
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Bitcoin “Coverage in media will decrease” ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-03; known on 2013-01-01.
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The target of Wikileaks's major American bank leak will be Bank of America ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Afforess on 2015-07-05.
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I will complete every single exercise in Harry Gensler's Introduction to Logic: Second Edition with an error rate of 20% or less before 2014. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-12-31.
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Bashar al-Assad will still be holding power in Syria on December 31, 2013. ( 36% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-01-01; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030. ( 63% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-31; known on 2030-01-01.
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No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025. ( 79% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-31; known on 2025-01-01.
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No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2020. ( 86% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-31; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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Indian Supreme Court rules in favour of Novartis. ( 34% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-17; known on 2013-03-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-04-01.
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We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ( 24% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by drethelin on 2012-12-23; known on 2062-12-23.
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Intrade's prediction will reflect Nate Silver's prediction (within 1.0% sometime during election day) in the 2016 presidential election. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cy Fleming on 2012-12-11; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by DaFranker on 2016-11-30.
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Berlusconi will be Italy's next premier ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2012-12-10; known on 2013-04-01; judged wrong by phreeza on 2013-04-01.
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Opportunity rover to function until June, 1 2013 ( 75% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-09; known on 2013-06-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-06-01.
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I will not donate any money to SIAI or its associated organizations during Winter 2012 ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by papermachine on 2012-12-06; known on 2013-03-20; judged right by papermachine on 2013-03-20.
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At least one of gwern's R snippets posted to LW before December 5th, 2012 was falsified to test if any LWer actually double-checked his work. ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2012-12-05; known on 2013-01-31; judged wrong by papermachine on 2013-01-31.
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Curiosity discovers ancient life forms in Martioian soil ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by tsathoggua on 2012-12-01; known on 2013-05-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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Over the next 20 years loop quantum gravity will dominate the efforts to reconcile Relativity with Quantum Mechanics. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-29; known on 2032-01-01.
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Within 50 years, excavations on Flores Island will show that Homo floresiensis survived into historical times. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-28; known on 2063-01-01.
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Mars rover SAM instrument discovers live microorganisms in Martian soil. ( 11% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-20; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Samm on 2013-04-26.
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Mars rover SAM instrument discovers methane in Martian atmosphere. ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-20; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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“Anonymous” ORCA hack claim will make Fox News headlines in the next two weeks. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-18; known on 2012-12-02; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-02-24.
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IEA: US to become world's top oil producer in 5 years ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-12; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2015-05-11.
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Obama's approval rating will exceed 55% on average for the next 12 months (Nov 12 -> Nov 13) ( 46% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-12; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-16.
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In the 2014 election, someone will make a serious run for Congress, Senate or Governor as a secessionist ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-09; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-12-01.
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By 2020, Puerto Rico will be admitted to the Union ( 39% confidence; 18 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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The Democratic candidate takes Georgia in 2016 ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-09; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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The Democratic candidate takes North Carolina in 2016. ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-09; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Obama's not going to officially approve of the legalization of pot in Colorado and Washington ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-08; known on 2013-12-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-08-29.
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Nate Silver will become a public expert on climate change statistics by the year 2016 ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-08; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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There'll be less gridlock in Obama's second term vs. the first term (measured by total number of filibusters) ( 53% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07; known on 2016-12-31.
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The 2016 presidential election will be Jeb Bush v. Hillary Clinton. Yes, again! ( 14% confidence; 27 wagers; 16 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07; known on 2016-11-30; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-02-21.
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Romney will publicly embrace Romneycare before end of Obama term ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07; known on 2016-12-31.
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Romney won't be top 3 in 2016 Iowa causes ( 87% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07; known on 2016-06-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-10.
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Chris Christie is not going to be within top 3 in Iowa causes in 2016 ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07; known on 2016-05-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2016-02-02.
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After a period of cognitive dissonance, a sizable part of the press will start referring to the US as a “center-left” country during the Obama term. ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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The US economy will be “worse” in 2016 than in 2012 (i.e. both R and D Presidential candidates will say the economy is worse) ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jach on 2012-11-07; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by Jach on 2017-01-03.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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New Star Wars movie will be better than Phantom Menace and Attack of the Clones ( 70% confidence; 20 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-02; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-12-28.
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New Star Wars movie out before end of 2015 ( 71% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-02; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by kuudes on 2015-12-16.
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In at least one state Obama wins in 2012, Gary Johnson will win a number of votes greater than the margin by which Obama defeats Romney in that state. ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-30; known on 2012-12-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-27.
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Marijuana legalization will be a significant issue in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. ( 33% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-30; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Rossi's energy black box actually harnesses a third type of nuclear reaction ( 4% confidence; 10 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-30; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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The NYC subway will remain fully closed for all of Tuesday. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gusl on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-10-31; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-02.
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Obama will win Ohio ( 73% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-11-08; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ( 14% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-29; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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In the next ten years, self-identified anarchists will out number self-identified Greens in the US. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-29; known on 2023-01-01.
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The death toll from hurricane Sandy will be lower than that from Katrina. ( 88% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Matt on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-11-29; judged right by Matt on 2012-11-29.
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Within 6 months, a nationally-known Democratic strategist, pundit, or politician will claim that Obama's performance in the first 2012 debate was a clever strategy to lower expectations. ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-28; known on 2013-05-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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Regardless of who wins the election, there'll be a major “debt deal” before mid 2013 ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-28; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-06-09.
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Within a generation, the “Aquatic Ape Theory” will become a significant minority opinion within anthropology. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-27; known on 2045-01-01.
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Mitt Romney will win the popular vote in the 2012 US election ( 37% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-26; known on 2012-11-10; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-08.
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By 2025, at least one major world city will have a restaurant featuring 3D printed food. ( 69% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-25; known on 2025-01-01; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2015-03-23.
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A neuron-level computational model of a specific human brain will be implemented successfully within 20 years (2032). ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Aticper on 2012-10-24; known on 2032-12-31.
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Donald Trump won't pay out on his $5m offer to Obama to release educational transcripts ( 80% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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Assuming Obama wins second term, repubs will try to impeach him sometime during the his second term ( 11% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-24; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Self-driving cars will be available for sale or lease in most US states within ten years (2022). ( 41% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Aticper on 2012-10-24; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by mad on 2023-01-17.
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Within fifty years (2062), the world economy will experience an increase in economic growth rate comparable to the industrial and agricultural revolutions. ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Aticper on 2012-10-24; known on 2062-12-31.
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Within twelve years (2024), silicon transistor technology will run into fundamental physical constraints, and the normal progress of Moore's law will break down. However, exponential growth of processors in general will resume within three years. ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Aticper on 2012-10-24; known on 2027-12-31.
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By the end of 2014, the market for virtual reality headsets will exceed a million units. ( 23% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Aticper on 2012-10-24; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.
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By 2017, photo-realistic gaming experiences will be possible on high-end PC hardware. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Aticper on 2012-10-24; known on 2017-12-31.
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By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ( 26% confidence; 15 wagers; 25 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-21; known on 2060-01-01.
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Within ten years, at least one planet of < 3 Earth masses will be discovered in one of the liquid water habitable zones in the Alpha Centauri system. ( 43% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-17; known on 2022-10-18.
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Within ten years, a planet will be discovered in at least one of the (liquid water) habitable zones in the Alpha Centauri system. ( 56% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-17; known on 2022-10-18.
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“Google's self-driving cars will be available [for purchase at a reasonable price to buy and drive legally] for everyone [the same market that can currently afford to buy a car] within five years” – Sergey Brin ( 16% confidence; 32 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Qiaochu on 2012-10-14; known on 2017-09-26; judged wrong by Tanner on 2017-09-26.
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Most of the gene sites accounting for the additive heritability of g (0.6) will be identified by 2021. — Steve Hsu ( 47% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-13; known on 2022-01-01.
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Fed: unemployment won't reach 7.5% until 2014 ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-05-03.
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Gangnam Style will still be on the Billboard Youtube list by April 1, 2013 ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-08; known on 2013-04-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-04-08.
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Gangnam Style won't be on Billboard 100 digital song chart by April 1, 2013 ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-08; known on 2013-04-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-04-08.
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D-Wave will be commercially selling a >=2048-qubit quantum annealing chip by 2018 ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-06; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-01-01.
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D-Wave will be commercially selling a >=1024-qubit quantum annealing chip by 2020 ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-10.
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D-Wave will be bankrupt, bought, or defunct in 5 years ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-06; known on 2017-10-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-10-06.
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They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040 ( 55% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-05; known on 2040-12-31.
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Someone on Fox News or one of the headlines on their website will claim that Mitt Romney won the 2012-10-03 presidential debate. ( 83% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by aaronsw on 2012-10-03; known on 2012-10-04; judged right by aaronsw on 2012-10-04.
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By 2040, no other country will have both more active nuclear warheads and higher GDP than the United States. ( 64% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-10-02; known on 2040-01-01.
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By 2040 the US remains the world's strongest economic power, as measured by GDP. — Axel Boldt ( 33% confidence; 9 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. — Robin Hanson ( 27% confidence; 14 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 9999-01-01.
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By 2100, world economic growth rates will have increased by over a factor of a hundred. — Robin Hanson ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2101-01-01.
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Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 65% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 32% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.