Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 100% | 53% | 67% | 100% | 93% | 67% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 15 | 3 | 16 | 15 | 3 | 53 |
Displaying all predictions made by Serge. Filter by:
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Trump's Gallup approval be 39% or higher for August 1 – 3 (2017) ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by leo_gri on 2017-08-02; known on 2017-08-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-30.
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North Korea is invaded by the end of 2017 ( 7% confidence; 24 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-07-29; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-06-07.
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Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft ( 7% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-27; known on 2024-12-31.
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Ethereum blockchain will fork because of parity multisig hack that happened today before 2017-08-20 ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-19; known on 2017-08-20; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-08-20.
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Ethereum's price at 2017-08-19 01:00 UTC+0 will be higher than at 2017-07-19 01:00 UTC+0 ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-19; known on 2017-08-19; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-19.
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From today until January 1st, 2016 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2016-01-01.
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A heat engine which beats the Carnot efficiency will be developed before 2050 ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-07; known on 2050-01-01.
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The Arctic Ocean will be ice-free before 2073 ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-07; known on 2073-01-01.
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In five years, we will carry one device instead of many (phone, tablet, laptop), with various external inputs based on need (keyboard, mouse) & outputs (big screen, projector). ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Legioona on 2015-09-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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I will perform at least 1 set of 100 push ups and 1 set of 20 pulls up before 2016. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-09-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2016-01-03.
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I will complete my 30day push-up challenge in the next three weeks (I am now halfway through) ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by taryneast on 2015-09-03; known on 2015-09-24; judged right by taryneast on 2015-09-18.
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I will be hospitalised at some point by the end of the year ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-09-01; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2016-01-01.
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I will start a new relationship by the end of the year. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-08-30; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2016-01-01.
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The Schengen Agreement will be terminated within 5 years. ( 26% confidence; 15 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by danpop on 2015-08-29; known on 2018-08-29; judged wrong by sdr on 2018-08-29.
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At least one major crime will be live streamed through Periscope or Meerkat (or whatever the app of the day is) ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by cocoflunchy on 2015-03-29; known on 2017-03-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-01-16.
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“By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.” ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-25; known on 2033-03-25.
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By March 22, 2035, at least one currently OECD country will have at least 20% of all cars be self-driving. ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-22; known on 2035-03-22.
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That my wife will give birth to a baby girl ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by woodse on 2015-01-16; known on 2015-05-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-04.
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Zendikar fetchlands are reprinted in “Louie” set. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Serge on 2014-09-15; known on 2015-03-30; judged wrong by Serge on 2015-03-30.
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Australia will see its first domestic, large scale “terror” attack within six months of becoming involved in the ISIS campaign. ( 17% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Mike on 2014-09-15; known on 2015-03-31; judged wrong by Mike on 2015-03-31.
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An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100. ( 57% confidence; 18 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by nshepperd on 2014-09-08; known on 2100-01-01.
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Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project. ( 1% confidence; 27 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-08-12; known on 2024-08-12.
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Elder Scrolls Online will sell over 10 million copies within a year of release (across all platforms), becoming the worlds largest MMORPG ( 25% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-02-09; known on 2015-04-04; judged wrong by jasticE on 2015-04-19.
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Scotland votes 'yes' for independence. ( 38% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-31; known on 2014-09-19; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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Iphone 5 shape is same as Iphone 4, the onlything different is the antenna will change a bit! ( 33% confidence; 13 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by nam2001 on 2011-03-02; known on 2013-03-16; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-09-18.
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By 2020, there will have been at least 5 assassinations that were predicted by a prediction market (and known as such). ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2020-01-01.
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An off-planet Playboy club is operational before 2030. ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-05; known on 2030-01-01.
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First-year sales of Rowling's new book will be less than 40% of the first-year sales of Deathly Hallows (44 million according to Wikipedia.) ( 77% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-29; known on 2013-12-20; judged right by Grognor on 2013-12-24.
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The Hunger Games film will not fail (>= 60% on Rotten Tomatoes). ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Christopher on 2012-01-29; known on 2012-03-24; judged right by Christopher on 2012-03-23.
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The energy source formerly known as cold fusion will be generally accepted as real by end 2012. ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by waveman on 2012-01-13; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-31.
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Google Search will be inaccessible to US visitors for at least 4 hours due to a “blackout” protesting pending legislation, before 2013 ( 5% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
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Iran will not successfully test a nuclear weapon in 2012. ( 93% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by smijer on 2012-01-11; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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SOPA will become US law and either Youtube or Megaupload will be shutdown. ( 24% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Christopher on 2012-06-25.
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SOPA will pass through congress, and then it will not be vetoed. ( 49% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Grognor on 2011-12-21; known on 2012-10-16; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-07-26.
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Within 5 years, “mind reading” (BCI) will have progressed to the point where you can control an external device, e.g. place a call to a contact just by thinking it. (IBM's “5 in 5” http://asmarterplanet.com/blog/2011/12/the-next-5-in-5-mind-reading-is-no- ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-12-20; known on 2016-12-20; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2018-02-25.
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Within 5 years biometrics will displace passwords (IBM “5 in 5” http://asmarterplanet.com/blog/2011/12/the-next-5-in-5-you-will-never-need-a-password-again.html) ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-12-20; known on 2016-12-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-12-20.
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In 5 years parasitic power collection will have become a significant market (IBM “5 in 5” http://ibmresearchnews.blogspot.com/2011/12/ibm-5-in-5-creating-energy-from.html) – for concreteness take “significant” to be $1Bn ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-12-20; known on 2016-12-20; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2018-02-25.
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The Bitcoin price will hit 5 $/฿ in December 2011. ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Mqrius on 2011-12-20; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Mqrius on 2012-01-01.
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A law that creates some form of Internet blacklist which requires search engines or ISPs to block specific sites will be passed in the USA before 2014 ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by saturn on 2011-12-13; known on 2014-01-02; judged wrong by saturn on 2014-01-04.
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A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020. ( 21% confidence; 21 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by ceterisparibus on 2011-11-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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Votes in Russian legislative elections will be re-counted (due to vote fraud and other irregularities). ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Serge on 2011-12-06; known on 2012-03-06; judged wrong by Serge on 2012-03-06.
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The new Silk Road URL will be revealed to be a scam/phishing/law enforcement one. ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 109 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-02; known on 2012-12-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-02.
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Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin will be inaugurated as President of Russia in 2012. ( 84% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by Grrrr on 2012-12-31.
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“I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.” ( 9% confidence; 26 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 3 months. ( 46% confidence; 46 wagers; 39 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-22.
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Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory. ( 4% confidence; 23 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-14; known on 2051-09-15; judged unknown by Arets Paeglis on 2011-10-10.
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BitcoinEXpress attack on Namecoin will be successful in reversing the hashchain at least temporarily ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-13; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-30.
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The personal use of cannabis will be de jure legalized in at least one U.S state by 2020. ( 62% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Gedusa on 2011-09-13; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by roxton on 2013-01-11.
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No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests) ( 82% confidence; 32 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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Before January 1, 2020, a quantum computer will be used to successfully factor an integer greater than 100 using Shore’s algorithm or some similar algorithm. ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-31; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-10-07.
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Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored. ( 18% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-25; known on 2039-08-25.
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“Dow Jones to close ON or ABOVE 10750 on 31 Aug 2011” —Intrade ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-16; known on 2011-09-01; judged right by Serge on 2011-09-01.
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“Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 16% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“Hillary Clinton to be elected President in 2012” —Intrade ( 4% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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Haruki Murakami for 2011 Literature Nobel ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-02; known on 2011-10-10; judged wrong by ka on 2011-10-06.
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Greece will default on its debt before 2011-09-01 00:00 UTC ( 50% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-06-19; known on 2011-09-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-02.
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“the entire universe and planet Earth will be destroyed forever.” —Haubert/Brown ( 0% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-08; known on 2011-10-22; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-22.
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3D Televisions using a technology that doesn't require expensive glasses to view in 3D will outsell those that do require such glasses by the end of 2011 ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by scav on 2011-01-05; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-31.