Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 52% | 60% | 72% | 78% | 93% | 97% | |
Sample Size | 126 | 209 | 180 | 240 | 430 | 346 | 1531 |
Displaying all predictions made by Tapetum-Lucidum. Filter by:
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2016 predictions: Sam will be a vegetarian, pescetarian, or vegan at the end of the year. ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
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2016 predictions: I will post 5 or more blog posts. ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
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2016 predictions: I will not identify as religious by the end of 2016. ( 98% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
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2016 predictions: We’ll buy a new car. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
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2016 predictions: I will run a marathon. ( 14% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
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2016 predictions: I will attend Burning Man. ( 82% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-09-05.
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2016 predictions: Sam will attend Burning Man. ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-09-05.
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2016 predictions: I will make >5 new drawings that I like enough to post in my Facebook album. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-06-27.
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Skyscraper (“The Address”) fire in Dubai was set intentionally ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by hedges on 2015-12-31; known on 2016-01-14; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-17.
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Donald Trump to be the next US President. ( 26% confidence; 73 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-30; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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Sam's stolen phone will be recovered. ( 10% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-29; known on 2016-01-28; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-28.
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Magnesium infused with silicon carbide nanoparticles will be used as major structural component for cars by 2025. ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-26; known on 2025-01-01.
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I will finish “Learn Python the Hard Way” by the end of 2015 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2015-12-26; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-01-04.
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By the end of 2020, more than half of the babies born that year are going to be genomically sequenced as soon as they're born. ( 4% confidence; 10 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-25; known on 2024-01-01.
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J is no longer Christian. ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-12-24; known on 2030-01-01.
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I will have grades in for all three classes before Tuesday evening. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-20; known on 2015-12-22; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-26.
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Bharat will pass the USA in steel production in 2015(full calendar year). In 2014 USA was ahead. Steel is an excellent proxy for GDP growth, along with cement and electricity. Data Source: World Steel Association. ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-03-25; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-25.
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Reddit will exist in a recognizably similar form to its current incarnation, as of December 31, 2019. ( 70% confidence; 16 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sflicht on 2015-12-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by sflicht on 2020-01-01.
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Theranos still exists as an independent company in 2025 (it's allowed to rename). ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ChristianKl on 2015-12-16; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-08.
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US citizen killed by US government in drone strike on continental US soil before 2023 ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-13; known on 2024-01-01.
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week of dec 22, the Central Bank of Turkey will meet, and do central-banky things. ( 93% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-13; known on 2016-01-06; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-25.
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Global thermonuclear war, worldwide by Jan 1, 2016 ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-11; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
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Bharat and Zhongguo will account for more than 60% of the OECD and G20 STEM graduates. ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-10; known on 2030-12-25.
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Craig S. Wright will not (in the next year) demonstrate possession of the key with fingerprint DE4E FCA3 E1AB 9E41 CE96 CECB 18C0 9E86 5EC9 48A1, nor of any other key or bitcoin convincingly belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto. ( 82% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by James Babcock on 2015-12-09; known on 2016-12-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-09.
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The New York times will report it confirmed that Craig Wright is Satoshi Nakamoto by 2016-12-31 ( 18% confidence; 13 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by solipsist on 2015-12-09; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by solipsist on 2016-12-31.
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The Federal Reserve will not hike the interest rate in 2015. ( 15% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2015-12-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Afforess on 2015-12-16.
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Boehner's resignation turns out to be part of a play to get Boehner on one of the GOP presidential tickets. ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-09-29; known on 2016-11-16; judged wrong by Afforess on 2016-10-06.
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I will mark this prediction as correct. ( 100% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-11-29; known on 2015-11-30; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-11-29.
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I will finish grading both my 101 exams and my 463 exams before Monday. ( 69% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-28; known on 2015-11-30; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-30.
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I will enjoy the new Star Wars movie as much as the original. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by bhh322 on 2015-11-28; known on 2016-01-06.
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The IMF will vote in favor of adding the Yuan to the Special Drawing Rights basket on Nov 30th, 2015 ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-11-27; known on 2015-11-30; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-30.
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The Force Awakens will reveal the Darth Darth Binks theory to be broadly correct. ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Calien on 2015-11-25; known on 2015-12-17; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-12-26.
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The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045. ( 25% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2015-11-24; known on 2045-01-01.
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I get the monetary prize from Peter McIntyre for changing his beliefs the most during the EA Australia retreat. ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-23; known on 2015-12-05; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-12-04.
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University of Ottawa yoga class that was cancelled due to cultural appropriation complaints will be un-cancelled in the next month. ( 13% confidence; 53 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-11-23; known on 2015-12-22; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-12-26.
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Bharat will be ranked 2nd in the world by internet users, at least 402 million. ( 98% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-19; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-30.
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I will sleep with the P-girl this year ( 85% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-11-17; known on 2016-06-06.
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I will be accepted for an internship at DeepMind. ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-12-03.
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The VIX index will go above 23 by December 4th. ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-11-14; known on 2015-12-05; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-12-05.
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The VIX index will go above 22 by December 4th. ( 52% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-11-14; known on 2015-12-05; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-12-05.
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JT will defriend me on Facebook by January 1, 2016 ( 29% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-12; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-10.
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At least one country leaves the Eurozone before 2018 ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by qznc on 2015-11-12; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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In 2016 Tesla Motors will sell a <$30,000 electric car. ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by qznc on 2015-11-12; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2017-01-03.
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US economy will be in recession by 2017. ( 41% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-12; known on 2017-12-25; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-12-25.
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The Fed won't raise the rate in 2015 ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jdmeagher on 2015-11-07; known on 2016-01-07; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-04.
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In five years, 80% of the smartphones worldwide will come from Chinese companies or Chinese acquired companies. ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by danpop on 2015-11-06; known on 2020-11-06; judged wrong by avi on 2020-11-07.
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Out of the universities that I send out PhD applications to, I will be accepted by at least half. ( 63% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-05; known on 2016-05-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-03-03.
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Scott Adams – I predict Trump gets at least 65% of the votes in the general election. ( 4% confidence; 20 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by halfwit on 2015-11-03; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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At least 3 more people in the US will get the bubonic plague by year-end 2016. ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-11-01; known on 2017-01-02; judged unknown by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-12-26.
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ATK will successfully launch by Feb 1, 2016 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-01; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-01.
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ATK will successfully launch by December 4th. ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-01; known on 2015-12-05; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-05.
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Bernie Sanders will win the 2016 Presidential election. ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gsastry on 2015-10-31; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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I will get full marks in today's finance programming quiz. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-11-15; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-11-05.
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Zhongguo will be a high income country by 2022 ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-28; known on 2022-12-12; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-18.
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The Long Range Strike Bomber will cost at least $846 million per plane (in FY2016 dollars). ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by quanticle on 2015-10-28; known on 2025-01-01.
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CIA director John Brennan will resign by 1 Feb 2015 ( 18% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by James Babcock on 2015-10-21; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by James Babcock on 2016-02-01.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky to have at least 1 child by 2020 ( 22% confidence; 31 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by sdr on 2015-10-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-01-01.
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A predictive intelligence will emerge in the year 2032 to accuse me of engaging in prediction-based warfare. ( 3% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by SmoothPorcupine on 2015-10-18; known on 2032-07-16.
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Xi Jinping pledges to remove poverty in Zhongguo by 2020. 70.17 million people in the countryside live below the poverty line of 2,300 yuan (USD 376) in annual income at 2014. ( 38% confidence; 4 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-17; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2021-06-11.
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Alexander Coward's firing from UC Berkeley Mathematics department will be overruled. ( 30% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-15; known on 2015-12-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-01.
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In the next 10 years Columbus Day will stop being a US federal holiday, or will be changed to Indigenous People's Day or some other non-Columbus-themed alternative. ( 25% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-13; known on 2025-10-13.
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Only 21 LRS-Bs will actually be built. The Pentagon is planning to procure 80-100 LRS-Bs to replace the Air Force’s B-1 and B-52 bombers. The Pentagon won't achieve even 25% of its planned target. ( 57% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-08; known on 2030-12-31.
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The next candidate to drop out of the Republican Presidential primary will be one of Jindal, Santorum, Gilmore, Pataki, Graham or Pence ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-27; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by danielfilan on 2015-11-18.
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I will not play a single game of chess online the remainder of 2015. ( 68% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-26; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2016-01-02.
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The Angry Birds Movie will gross under 150 million in its first four weeks. ( 59% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-26; known on 2016-09-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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The average grade for the graph theory test for the math 101 students will be at least 75%. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-25; known on 2015-09-28; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-02.
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I will stay sober until the end of 2015 ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-09-25; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Josh Holland on 2016-01-01.
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Kanye West elected President by 2032 — Scott Adams ( 0% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2015-09-23; known on 2032-11-10.
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Bank nonperforming loans will exceed 2% of gross total loans in China by the end of 2016. ( 63% confidence; 9 wagers; 38 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-09-23; known on 2017-01-02; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-02-25.
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Bank nonperforming loans will exceed 2.5% of gross total loans in China by the end of 2016. ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-09-23; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-08.
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The VIX index will go above 27 by October 1st 2015 ( 57% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-09-23; known on 2015-10-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-09-29.
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I will complete my expense for the tax year by the end of September ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by taryneast on 2015-09-21; known on 2015-09-30; judged wrong by taryneast on 2015-10-07.
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Mouse, rat, rabbit, or other small mammal successfully revived from cryopreservation before 2050 ( 29% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-17; known on 2050-01-01.
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I will regret having my whole genome sequenced in 4 months (self-report). ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-15; judged wrong by Porejide on 2017-09-19.
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Donald Trump will lose the New Hampshire primary. ( 56% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by KBVMD on 2015-09-13; known on 2016-02-09; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-02-10.
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Donald Trump will lose the Iowa caucuses. ( 61% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by KBVMD on 2015-09-13; known on 2016-02-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-02.
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The BRICS will pass the G7 in percentage of world GDP in 2016. Data source will be the IMF. As of 2015: 31.86% G7 vs BRICS 30.58%. ( 34% confidence; 8 wagers; 22 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-11; known on 2016-12-25; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-07-06.
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The BRICS share will pass the combined US + EU in percentage of world GDP in 2019. ( 86% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-11; known on 2019-12-25; judged unknown by sebbit on 2019-12-05.
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Hillary Clinton will be the 2016 Democratic nominee for US President. ( 81% confidence; 39 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by m2bn on 2015-09-11; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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Any of Denmark, Finland, Germany, Luxembourg, Norway or Sweden defaults its sovereign debt in 2015. ( 0% confidence; 21 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2015-09-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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Luxembourg defaults its sovereign debt in 2015. ( 0% confidence; 14 wagers )
Created by kuudes on 2015-09-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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Germany defaults its sovereign debt in 2015. ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by kuudes on 2015-09-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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Finland defaults its sovereign debt in 2015. ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers )
Created by kuudes on 2015-09-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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Denmark defaults its sovereign debt in 2015. ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by kuudes on 2015-09-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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Norway defaults its sovereign debt in 2015. ( 0% confidence; 22 wagers )
Created by kuudes on 2015-09-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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Sweden defaults its sovereign debt in 2015. ( 0% confidence; 21 wagers )
Created by kuudes on 2015-09-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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Google to replace Intel as the next sponsor of the Intel Science Talent Search. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-09; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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A heat engine which beats the Carnot efficiency will be developed before 2050 ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-07; known on 2050-01-01.
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The Arctic Ocean will be ice-free before 2073 ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-07; known on 2073-01-01.
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From today until January 1st, 2022 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 19% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-07-12.
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Bernie Sanders is the next US President elect ( 12% confidence; 30 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-09-03; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by Afforess on 2016-10-06.
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Ted Cruz to win the Republican nomination for President. ( 14% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-27; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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The fed will increase the effective federal funds rate by the end of 2016 by at least .5% ( 61% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by prophetofprofit on 2015-08-27; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Technology will continue to advance ( 97% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Tacita on 2015-08-26; known on 2016-08-26; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-28.
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Joe Biden will win the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination. ( 10% confidence; 28 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-08-25; known on 2016-09-15; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-09-02.
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Universal basic income will be adopted in at least 50% of the G20 countries within 10 years ( 10% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by sflicht on 2015-08-07; known on 2025-08-08.
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The Renminbi will eclipse the US dollar as Reserve Currency in 2022. Central banks will hold their reserves in renminbi instead of the USD as they currently do. The USD will be No2 instead of No1. The IMF will be the source of data. ( 15% confidence; 14 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-17; known on 2022-05-28; judged wrong by amadeu on 2022-05-26.
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I will get a library card by the end of the month. ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-24; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2015-09-03.
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I will do any work tonight. ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-24; known on 2015-08-24; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2015-08-25.
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Non-condom reversible male contraception approved by the FDA by 2030 ( 73% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-23; known on 2030-01-02.