Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 53% | 65% | 78% | 86% | 94% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 616 | 437 | 419 | 458 | 711 | 175 | 2816 |
Displaying all predictions made by JoshuaZ. Filter by:
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I will overcome very mild social anxiety to go to the thing on Tuesday ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-19; known on 2015-04-22.
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At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ( 23% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-22; known on 2030-01-01.
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Between now and April 22nd, 2016 There will be large-scale riots in major US cities, gun confiscation in rural areas, and a financial crisis, possibly not all at once or in that precise order. ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-22; known on 2016-04-21; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-04-21.
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Nathan will like Peep Show ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-21; known on 2015-04-28; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-08.
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One of the next 5 years, the total population will be lower at the end of the year than the start of the year. ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-21; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-19.
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By April 21, 2020, World War III will have broken out. ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-21; known on 2020-04-21; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-04-21.
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TrikeApps will merge my PredictionBook API pull request within a week. ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-04-20; known on 2015-04-27; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-04-28.
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By 2045, electric powered passenger jets will exist. ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-20; known on 2045-01-01.
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By 2030, at least 70% of jobs existing in 2015 will be replaced with automation. ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-20; known on 2030-01-01.
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By Wednesday my piece on the Great Filter on Less Wrong will be at at least +12 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-19; known on 2015-04-22; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-22.
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The Russian Federation will disintegrate in the next 15 years, defined by either the current amount of land broadly recognized as Russia reducing by 20% or a clear state of anarchy and general collapse. ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-19; known on 2030-01-01.
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Robots able to clean a whole bathroom will be commercially available by 2030 ( 78% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jasticE on 2015-04-19; known on 2030-01-01.
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Kyrgyzstan will experience a change in ruling party or civil unrest before 2017. ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jasticE on 2015-04-19; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Tesla motors' next product release will be a home battery ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OisinMoran on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-04-30; judged right by OisinMoran on 2015-05-01.
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The legal status of marijuana (including medical) in the UK will undergo a substantial change ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2018-01-31.
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I will vote Lib Dem in the election ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-05-07; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-06-19.
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At least one US Presidential candidate who is major enough to appear in one of the major Presidential debates will mention the growth of AI sometime before the Presidential election. ( 46% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by FractalHeretic on 2015-04-18; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-12-30.
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By the end of 2015, either a presidential candidate, a member of congress, or Obama, will talk about the rise of AI as it relates to job-loss and/or existential crisis. ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by FractalHeretic on 2015-04-18; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by jesselevine on 2016-01-27.
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By April 17, 2020, scientific consensus will still not accept to any substantial degree Paramahamsa Tewari's proposed “over-unity” device. ( 99% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-18; known on 2020-04-17; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-04-17.
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I will encounter a girl, whom I genuinely want to be with and we'll date and be all cute and whatnot. (by the end of this year). ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-01-01.
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I will wake up before 1 tomorrow ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-04-17; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-17.
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“No Award” takes at least one Hugo category this year. ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-04-16; known on 2015-08-30; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-23.
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“No Award” sweeps the Hugos this year. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-04-16; known on 2015-08-30; judged right by kuudes on 2015-08-23.
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Hillary chooses running mate from Ohio, Colorado, Florida, or Virginia. ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-04-16; known on 2016-09-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-23.
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I will decide on MIRI as a charity that I donate a proportion of my donation money to. ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-14; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-12-31.
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I will be able to code a Random Name Generator by the end of the week. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-14; known on 2015-04-19; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-20.
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That when I wake up Earth will still exist. ( 100% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-14; known on 2015-04-15; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15.
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My parents will complain about me not having a job at any moment in the next 24 hours. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-14; known on 2015-04-16; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15.
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In the United States, manual labor will make up a larger percentage of the total workforce in 2035 than it does in 2015. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-14; known on 2036-01-01.
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By 2030, the consensus in the United States will be that 9/11 was an inside job with US government involvement. Consensus to be determined by at least 60% of the US believing it, or it to be widely accepted in some other fashion if the situation has broke ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-13; known on 2030-01-01.
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Commercialized living on Mars will not have a positive cost/benefit analysis and won't become widespread for at least 85 years. Commercialized living is defined by habitation not primarily for scientific research. ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-13; known on 2100-01-01.
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Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ( 41% confidence; 20 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-13; known on 2030-01-01.
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By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ( 11% confidence; 13 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-12; known on 2065-01-01.
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EUR/USD above 1.10 at end of June. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Chri on 2015-04-12; known on 2015-07-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-07-01.
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I will not run into Kat tomorrow ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-11; known on 2015-11-04; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-11.
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I will have at least two more papers submitted by June 25, 2015 ( 55% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-09; known on 2015-06-25; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-25.
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By the August 1st /r/TheButton button will expire ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by VoidChronos on 2015-04-09; known on 2015-08-01; judged right by timujin on 2015-06-08.
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At least 40 states will have some form of legal cannabis by 2024 ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-09; known on 2024-01-01.
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The next president elect will be a member of the democratic party. ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-09; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Schizophrenia will popularly be considered a part of the Autism spectrum, supporting imprinted brain theory. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-09; known on 2035-04-09.
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There will be a new DSM version released by 2020, replacing the current DSM-V. Can be a revision (i.e., DSM-V TR) ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-09; known on 2020-01-01.
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Within 50 years lesions or similar cerebral damaging will be discovered for Homo Sapiens as a result of recreational doses of NMDA antagonists. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-09; known on 2065-04-09.
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The mitten will still be there on my next run. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-04-08; known on 2015-04-08; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-04-08.
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Rand Paul to win the Republican party nomination for President. ( 10% confidence; 15 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-08; known on 2016-07-22; judged wrong by Faceh on 2016-05-03.
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I will be able to memorize a shuffled deck of cards (Doppelkopf deck, 48 cards) in less then 5min by the end of May. ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Chri on 2015-04-07; known on 2015-06-01; judged right by Chri on 2015-05-28.
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By January 1, 2045, each of the cities of Flagstaff, Las Vegas, Albuquerque, Clovis, Prescott, Henderson, Hobbs, and Abilene will have a population of at most 10% its population compared to the population in 2015. ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-06; known on 2045-01-03.
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“Antonin Scalia to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court” ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2017-01-02; judged right by rebellionkid on 2016-02-14.
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Saudis will cut oil production sometime in 2015. ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2015-03-28; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-31.
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The TV show “The Walking Dead” will have at least 10 completed seasons before 2025. ( 45% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Mati on 2015-03-28; known on 2025-01-01.
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Between 2040 and 2050 there will be a two year period where at least 100 million people will die due to “climate change caused food scarcity and related uprising suppression due to civil unrest”. ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-05; known on 2051-01-01.
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Sam Altman: Current YC Winter 2015 batch worth at least $3b by Jan 1, 2020 ( 67% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2015-03-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by qznc on 2020-01-03.
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Sam Altman: Uber, Palantir, Airbnb, Dropbox, Pinterest, and SpaceX to be collectively worth over $200b by Jan 1, 2020 ( 45% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2015-03-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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“By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.” ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-25; known on 2033-03-25.
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Italian Supreme Court in Rome will confirm convictions of Amanda Knox and Raffaele Sollecito on charge of killing Meredith Kercher. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by komponisto on 2015-03-25; known on 2015-03-26; judged wrong by komponisto on 2015-03-28.
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Rainfall in 2020 will be at least 49% of historic levels in California. (Using the standard June to July year) ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-23; known on 2020-07-25.
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By March 22, 2035, at least one currently OECD country will have at least 20% of all cars be self-driving. ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-22; known on 2035-03-22.
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Jacquelyn K. will Skype me sometime in the next 3 weeks (or will try to do so, but will be constrained by factors which are my responsibility). ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-03-21; known on 2015-04-10; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2015-04-10.
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Next US recession to be 66% or less than the drop in GDP of the great recession, to take place no earlier than 2018. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by nazgul76 on 2015-03-18; known on 2025-03-18.
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Starbucks CEO to make an apology for his Race Relations idea or something one of his employees says or does within 1 year. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by nazgul76 on 2015-03-17; known on 2016-03-17; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-22.
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H7N9 will become pandemic by March 15, 2020. ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-15; known on 2020-03-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-03-15.
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In HPMOR, Bartemus Crouch Sr. will be revealed as having covered up Crouch Jr.'s membership in the Death Eaters, or otherwise shielding him from the consequences in some way, in direct opposition to his reputation as a stalwart upholder of the law. ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JohnWittle on 2015-03-12; known on 2015-03-26; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.
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Between 5 and 20 people will attend the HP:MoR wrap party in Chicago. (Prediction made on March 4th) ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-03-10; known on 2015-03-14; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2015-03-14.
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World population to drop for at least one of the next 10 years. (2015,2016, 2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024). ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-10; known on 2025-02-02.
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By March 10, 2035, "the sum of (a) those who own cars and use them at least once a week (b) those who use a ride-sharing program with self-driving cars at least once a week, not counting twice those who do both will be less than 40% of the U.S. populatio ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-10; known on 2035-03-10.
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Unique games conjecture resolved by 2050. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-10; known on 2050-01-01.
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Scott Aaronson will reply to at least one of my questions via email or mention it in a blogpost by July 1. ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-09; known on 2015-07-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-10.
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Israeli Election: Zionist Union will get more votes than Likud ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Rigulel on 2015-03-07; known on 2015-03-18; judged wrong by Rigulel on 2015-03-18.
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Israeli Election: Benjamin Netanyahu will be the next prime minister ( 64% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Rigulel on 2015-03-07; known on 2015-05-17; judged right by kuudes on 2015-05-08.
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I will pass both an oral examination in comprehension of the german language, and the standard advanced mathematics written exam (college level). The direct consequences of failing either of these exams is a sum of approximately 1,250 USD ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by FourFire on 2015-03-07; known on 2015-05-31; judged wrong by FourFire on 2015-05-31.
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By 2035 a superconductor with a critical temperature of at least 200 K will be discovered. ( 75% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-06; known on 2035-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-21.
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Roberts votes with the majority on King v Burwell ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-08-01; judged right by David on 2015-06-25.
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I will get my full deposit back from my current landlord ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-09-01; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-08-16.
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Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner will attempt to stay in office through extra-legal means past her term in office. ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-05; known on 2016-01-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-10.
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King v. Burwell is decided for the government. ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-08-01; judged right by David on 2015-06-25.
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Nuclear war in 25 years. ( 10% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by argothiel on 2015-03-04; known on 2040-03-16.
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EY accepts at least one answer for the Final Exam, causing the story to continue to chapter 121. ( 78% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by tedks on 2015-03-02; known on 2015-03-04; judged right by iwakun on 2015-03-03.
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Either Scott Walker or Jeb Bush win the GOP nomination ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-03-01; known on 2016-07-21; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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Eliezer will accept an answer involving Harry secretly partially transfiguring something while his wand is pointed at the ground in such a way that Voldemort doesn't notice until too late. ( 32% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JohnWittle on 2015-02-28; known on 2015-03-03; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-05.
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My dad did not read the Slate State Codex posts I recommended, by Sunday, even though he said he needed until Sunday to get to them. evidence: - He hadn't read them on Thursday. - I think that he would have called or emailed me after he finished them ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-02-25; known on 2015-02-25; judged right by EliTyre on 2015-03-01.
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At least 25% of American personal car travel will be via self-driving cars by February 24, 2020. ( 4% confidence; 17 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-24; known on 2020-02-24; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-02-24.
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By January 1, 2025 at least one OECD country with a population of at least 5 million people will have more than half of all cars be self-driving. ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-24; known on 2025-01-01.
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By 2030, same-sex marriage will be legal everywhere in the US. ( 87% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2015-02-23; known on 2030-01-01; judged right by alexneptune on 2016-03-01.
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“The power the Dark Lord knows not” is ability to make altruist plans. ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-21; known on 2015-03-16; judged wrong by player_03 on 2015-03-16.
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HJPEV has access to Voldemort's Horcrux network, due to being sufficiently Tom Riddle. ( 56% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by linkhyrule5 on 2015-02-21; known on 2015-03-07; judged wrong by tedks on 2015-03-03.
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Emma Watson and Prince Harry publicly confirm they are dating within a week. ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-02-20; known on 2015-02-27; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-02-28.
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HPMoR: At least two parties at the battle of the Third Floor Corridor were present for reasons OTHER than Quirrel's influence on their actions. ( 47% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Faceh on 2015-02-16; known on 2015-03-14; judged right by Faceh on 2015-10-25.
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HPMoR: In the final arc (Chapter 104 – conclusion) It will be revealed that HPJEV was under some magical influence that prevented him from perceiving the link between Voldemort and Quirrel. ( 34% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Faceh on 2015-02-16; known on 2015-03-14; judged wrong by Unknowns on 2015-03-14.
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HPMoR: In the final arc (Chapter 104 – conclusion) there will be a philosophical discussion/debate of the nature of self, identity, and/or continuity of consciousness. This discussion will last LONGER than a single paragraph. ( 58% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Faceh on 2015-02-16; known on 2015-03-15; judged wrong by Unknowns on 2015-03-14.
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hpmor- In the last few chapters, Harry will be referred to as the “spare” with Cedric Diggory nearby. ( 31% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2015-02-16; known on 2015-02-23; judged wrong by Faceh on 2015-03-15.
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It will be clear by March 25,2015 that the Minsk ceasefire did not hold ( 56% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-13; known on 2015-03-26; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-03-27.
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The SMALL REU will reject me. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by azax1 on 2015-02-13; known on 2015-02-14; judged right by azax1 on 2015-03-11.
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Following the next election, at least one newly elected Board member will attempt to disband the Bitcoin Foundation (pass a motion or make a statement to that effect). Election of Cody Wilson is also an automatic “right” judgment. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by learnmethis on 2015-02-11; known on 2015-03-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-26.
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Bitcoin over $1000 at any point before end of 2015 ( 12% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by learnmethis on 2015-02-05; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
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Labor force participation rate will hit below 62% this decade. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-02-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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There will not be a recession in this decade (two consecutive quarters of negative gdp growth) in the US. ( 34% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-02-10; known on 2020-01-02; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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By the end of 2025 speech to text software "will be just below the level of a trained stenographer with something like 80% probability, and “solved” (somewhat above that level in many different languages) with 30% probability. ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-09; known on 2026-01-01.
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By the end 2035, a major mathematical conjecture will be made by a computer with no substantial input from humans. ( 67% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-09; known on 2036-01-01.
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Speech to text processing to improve such that by end of 2025 it will be an essentially solved problem. ( 85% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-09; known on 2026-01-01.
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Obama signs executive order legalizing marijuana on the last day of his presidency. ( 4% confidence; 19 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by RESO on 2015-02-05; known on 2017-01-20; judged wrong by RESO on 2017-01-20.
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The televised debates between party leaders proposed by the major broadcasters of the United Kingdom in the run-up to the 2015 general election will not happen. ( 44% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by doxievee on 2015-02-01; known on 2015-05-08; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-08-16.