Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 39% | 66% | 61% | 81% | 77% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 23 | 29 | 23 | 16 | 13 | 2 | 106 |
Displaying all predictions made by InquilineKea. Filter by:
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Java to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 35% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Javascript to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 45% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Python to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Marijuana to be more popular in 2025 than 2015 ( 75% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2026-01-01.
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MDMA to be more popular in 2025 than 2015 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2026-01-01.
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Phoenix, AZ population higher in 2030 than 2010 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.
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Minneapolis population higher in 2030 than 2010 ( 80% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.
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Seattle population to be higher in 2030 than 2010 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.
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San Francisco population to be higher in 2030 than 2010 ( 60% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.
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Miami population to be higher in 2030 than 2010 ( 30% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.
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There will be no paper newspapers left in the US by 2022 (http://rationalconspiracy.com/2012/11/23/the-real-america-of-2022/) ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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Coursera to become more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 55% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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College Confidential to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 20% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Harvard to make tuition free for all undergraduates (at least once) by 2030 ( 25% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.
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Harvard to have more undergraduates in 2020 than 2015 ( 55% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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The Earth (after climate change) to become as hot as the Eocene Hothouse (at least once) ( 25% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2099-01-01.
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2016 will be the hottest year ever recorded for the entire world (by the time historical records ever began) ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2017-01-02; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2017-01-19.
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Age of Empires II to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Facebook to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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LiveJournal to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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LessWrong to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Quora to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 60% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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reddit to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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At least one WWII veteran will live to see Artificial General Intelligence ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2045-01-01.
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At least one Apollo astronaut to live to see Artificial General Intelligence ( 5% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2045-01-01.
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James D. Watson to become a centenarian ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2028-04-07.
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Baseball to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 30% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Football to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 30% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Soccer to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Chess to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 45% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Poker to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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World of Warcraft to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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League of Legends to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 35% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Noam Chomsky to become a centenarian ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2029-01-01.
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Chen-Ning Yang to become a centenarian ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2023-01-01.
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2015 will be the hottest year for the entire world ever recorded (since historical records began) ( 90% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2016-01-02; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-04.
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Major personalities on predictionbook (gwern, JoshuaZ, etc) will migrate over to another prediction-based website by 2020 ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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feedly will be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 25% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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50% of all high school classes in the US to be taught online by 2019 (Clayton Christensen) ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-01-02.
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Kurdistan will be a UN member by 2018. ( 30% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-07-12; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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John Paul Stevens to become a centenarian ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05.
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At least one of the Mercury astronauts to become a centenarian ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-08-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-08-03.
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At least one of the Gemini astronauts will become a centenarian ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2033-01-01.
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At least one of the Apollo astronauts will become a centenarian ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2036-01-01.
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At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030 ( 28% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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At least 10% of 18-year olds in the US will be unschooled by 2030 ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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Half of more than 4,000 universities in the U.S. (that existed in 2013) to be in bankruptcy by 2028 – Clayton Christensen ( 65% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2029-01-01.
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There will be more elementary school teachers in 2025 than there are in 2012 (http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_104.htm ) ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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There will be more janitors in the U.S. in 2022 than there will be in 2012 (http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_104.htm ) ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2023-01-01.
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SomethingAwful to exist through 2025 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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Slashdot to exist through 2025 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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Nigeria to have a larger population than the U.S. (or at least once) by 2050 (http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2013/jun/13/nigeria-larger-population-us-2050) ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2051-01-01.
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Bisphenol A to be classified as a IARC Group 2A/2B carcinogen by 2030 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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Electronic Arts to survive to 2025 ( 55% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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Adobe to survive to 2025 ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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epub to be the most popular file format for eBooks in 2020 ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01.
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Sluggish cognitive tempo to be recognized as a disorder independent of ADHD in the DSM-6 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2029-12-16.
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Quora to make an independent IPO by 2018 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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FourSquare to still exist as an independent entity by 2020 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01.
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Helmut Schmidt to become a centenarian ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2018-12-16; judged wrong by lettergram on 2018-12-18.
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PDFy will stay intact to 2020 ( 60% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01.
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GTA 6 will be set in Chicago ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2025-01-01.
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Jane Goodall to do IAmA on reddit by 2025 ( 70% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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Food shortages, resurgent Islamic radicalism, and a torrent of oil revenues will cause an “Arab Spring” movement to overthrow the Saudi Arabian government (http://rationalconspiracy.com/2012/11/23/the-real-america-of-2022/) ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2023-01-01.
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Freeman Dyson to do an IAmA on reddit by 2020 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05.
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Daniel Dennett to do an IAmA on reddit by 2020 ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01.
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Edward O. Wilson to become a centenarian ( 20% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2029-06-16.
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Quora to be more popular than reddit by 2020 ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01.
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Yale to become a top-15 Computer Science program by 2025 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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Runescape will still exist by 2025 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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4chan to remain a top-1000 site by the end of 2018 ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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We will reach “longevity escape velocity” by 2035 ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2036-01-01.
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Alzheimer's to be a curable illness by 2030 ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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5-MAPB to be researched as a possible treatment for at least one medical condition (autism, anxiety, PTSD, etc) by 2025 ( 35% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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Gorillas will go extinct in the wild by 2030 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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Bonobos to go extinct in the wild by 2030 ( 30% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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Kea (Nestor Notabilis) to go extinct in the wild by 2030 ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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Kakapo will go extinct by 2030 ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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A study will be done showing that cannabidiol increases lifespan in at least one model organism by 2025 ( 35% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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Cystic Fibrosis to be a curable illness by 2025 ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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Arivale (new Leroy Hood startup) will have 10,000 participants by 2020 ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05.
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Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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Solar Energy to reach 25% of total world energy generation by 2030 ( 27% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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Wolfram Research will last through 2025 ( 60% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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2015-2016 El Nino to be stronger than 1997-1998 El Nino ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2017-01-01.
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MDMA will be rescheduled to a Schedule II drug by 2020 ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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MDMA will be rescheduled to a Schedule II drug by 2020 ( 35% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01.
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Google will acquire Yelp by 2018 ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Google will acquire Quora by 2020 ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2021-06-11.
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Dog Aging Study (http://dogagingproject.com/project-details/ ) to show that rapamycin will improve healthspan of middle-aged dogs by at least 2 years ( 75% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01.
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Steam to remain as #1 digital distribution platform for gaming by 2025 ( 60% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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Democratic Party will carry Colorado in 2016 ( 65% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2016-12-16; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Democratic Party will carry Minnesota in 2016 ( 80% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2016-12-16; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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LSD to no longer be a Schedule I drug by 2030 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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Steve Huffman will remain as reddit CEO to the end of 2015 ( 70% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by InquilineKea on 2016-05-31.
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Tuition at Harvard to be more expensive in 2020 than it is in 2015 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01.
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gnxp.com to last to 2025 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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yourmorals.org to last through 2025 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2025-01-01.
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Pirate Bay will still exist in its name by 2020 ( 74% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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The Stack Exchange Network will operate through 2025-07-01 ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by btrettel on 2015-07-10; known on 2025-07-01.