Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Lauren McNamara will be dropped as a witness for the defense in the trial against Bradley Manning. ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by alecbrooks on 2013-01-11; known on 2013-07-01; judged wrong by alecbrooks on 2013-07-09.
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If Will Newsome reads 'A Guide to the Good Life: The Ancient Art of Stoic Joy' by William B. Irvine within the next 3 months, then upon completing it he will not wish that he hadn't read it. ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-31; known on 2012-12-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-07-09.
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Bitcoin is exchanged at or below $2 by early July ( 2% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jach on 2013-04-03; known on 2013-07-08; judged wrong by Jach on 2013-07-08.
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4th grade SC science quiz is an actual quiz from an actual school. ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Bojidar Kojouharov on 2013-04-26; known on 2013-07-01; judged right by Bojidar Kojouharov on 2013-07-08.
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Anyone in #lesswrong-prog will have a rudimentary or better “Vine for Audio” accessible online before 2013-07-08 00:00 UTC ( 9% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-07-02; known on 2013-07-08; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-07-08.
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VLDL is associated with transfat and not with carbs such as fructose ( 70% confidence )
Created by meisnewbie on 2013-07-05; known on 2013-07-06; judged wrong by meisnewbie on 2013-07-06.
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VLDL is associated with transfat and not with carbs such as fructose ( 70% confidence )
Created by meisnewbie on 2013-07-05; known on 2013-07-06; judged wrong by meisnewbie on 2013-07-06.
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My lungs will not be hurting. ( 30% confidence )
Created by High_Fiber_Twigs on 2013-07-06; known on 2013-07-06; judged wrong by High_Fiber_Twigs on 2013-07-06.
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HP MoR: Minerva McGonagall said “Not your fault” in Chapter 89. ( 12% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jaibot on 2013-07-02; known on 2013-09-02; judged wrong by jaibot on 2013-07-06.
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“About 85% of the oldest-lived companies listed have websites. I bet the ones that will fail in the next 5 years will be in the 15% that don’t have a website in 2008.” —Kevin Kelly ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-08; known on 2013-06-13; judged right by gwern on 2013-07-05.
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The minecraft apocalypse server (reddit/r/mcapoc) will be wiped in the next year. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Danny_Hintze on 2012-03-26; known on 2013-07-02; judged right by Danny_Hintze on 2013-07-05.
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By the end of June 2013 I will have donated at least six thousand US dollars to either Effective Animal Activism (part of 80000 Hours) or some other organization that I believe is most cost effective. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-11; known on 2013-07-01; judged right by Pablo on 2013-07-05.
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Grantland: Durant will hit 50-40-90 club in NBA 2012-13 season ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-24; known on 2013-07-01; judged right by fistpo on 2013-07-05.
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HP MoR: During the current crisis, after (in real time) end of chapter 89, no potentially dangerous person or creature will be loose and alone anywhere in Hogwarts where a student would normally be. ( 50% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by Robert on 2013-06-30; known on 2013-07-02; judged wrong by Robert on 2013-07-04.
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Morsi will be out of power by December 1, 2013 ( 66% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-07-01; known on 2013-12-01; judged right by phreeza on 2013-07-04.
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HP MoR: ch90 will involve a use of a Time-Turner by any party. ( 65% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-06-30; known on 2013-08-30; judged right by nigr on 2013-08-15.
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HPMoR : ch 90 (or sooner): Harry would have to exploit the Dementor/Patronum valnerability to gain the Dark/Light Lordship. ( 27% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by mat33 on 2012-04-01; known on 2013-07-04; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-07-02.
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HP MOR: Ch 90 will imply that sanity of Harry was damaged in the way that it isn't obvious that we should root for him as opposed to his foes. ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by bt_uytya on 2013-07-01; known on 2013-07-02; judged wrong by bt_uytya on 2013-07-02.
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Bitcoin will hit the $30 mark (currently $100) sometime in the next 2 months. ( 30% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-04-01; known on 2013-07-01; judged wrong by phreeza on 2013-07-02.
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Neither Highlight nor Circle will get big (i.e. become a big public company or exit for > $100m) ( 90% confidence )
Created by daffodilian on 2013-03-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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Reddit: guy who signed birth certificate of another man's child will get sued for child support before 2013. ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-10-30; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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LW: Rationality Boot Camp will be declared a success and will have solid long-term data to back it up. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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The Indiana-Michigan border radiation anomaly will turn out to be the result of a secret nuclear test. ( 0% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by dain on 2012-06-08; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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Turkey / NATO war with Syria. ( 27% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by khorporative on 2012-12-10; known on 2013-02-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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Assuming Obama wins, the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy will continue in 2013 ( 56% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-01; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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kalla724 will write a technical post debunking cryonics ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-06-09; known on 2013-06-09; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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“Butterfly Labs ASIC will achieve 350 Mhash/Joule” —Bets of Bitcoin ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-21; known on 2013-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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The Boston Bomber will be tried in Civilian Courts ( 83% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bojidar Kojouharov on 2013-04-25; known on 2013-07-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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Facebook ($FB) will buy RIM ($RIMM) ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by sucrenoir on 2012-07-02; known on 2013-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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Curiosity discovers ancient life forms in Martioian soil ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by tsathoggua on 2012-12-01; known on 2013-05-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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Within 6 months, a nationally-known Democratic strategist, pundit, or politician will claim that Obama's performance in the first 2012 debate was a clever strategy to lower expectations. ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-28; known on 2013-05-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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Conditional on success in the ISS docking, the first two SpaceX resupply missions will succeed —Sketerpot ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2013-07-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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Silk Road will be closed by July 1st, 2013 —BetsofBitcoin ( 19% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-25; known on 2013-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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PredictionBook will have an iphone ap by June 30 2013 ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by William-Quixote on 2012-09-08; known on 2013-06-30; judged wrong by William-Quixote on 2013-07-01.
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Toby will be revealed as the Scranton Strangler in the final season of The Office (US). ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by tormey on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-05-17; judged wrong by ShIxtan on 2013-06-30.
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On The Office (US), the Scranton Strangler will be revealed during the final season to be a character we have seen before on the show. ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by tormey on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-05-17; judged wrong by ShIxtan on 2013-06-30.
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The Islamic Republic Will collapse in 2 years in IRan. ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by puya on 2011-06-28; known on 2013-06-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-06-30.
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HP MoR: ch21: The unheard prophecy by Sybil Trelawney refers to: Hat & Cloak ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-06-30.
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HP MoR: ch21: The unheard prophecy by Sybil Trelawney refers to: Remus Lupin ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-06-30.
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HP MoR: ch21: The unheard prophecy by Sybil Trelawney refers to: Sirius Black ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-06-30.
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HP MoR: ch21: The unheard prophecy by Sybil Trelawney refers to: Voldemort ( 49% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-06-30.
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HP MoR: ch21: The unheard prophecy by Sybil Trelawney refers to: Harry ( 50% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-06-30.
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I will have submitted my paper on Artin repreentations by 11:30 AM EST Monay ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-06-20; known on 2013-06-24; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-06-28.
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Zhang's bound reduced to 50,000 by June 29,2013 ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-06-20; known on 2013-06-29; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-06-28.
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The US Supreme Court will find it has jurisdiction in Hollingsworth v. Perry (the Prop 8 case) ( 55% confidence )
Created by Pfft on 2013-01-22; known on 2013-07-01; judged wrong by Pfft on 2013-06-26.
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The US Supreme Court will find it has jurisdiction in United States vs Windsor (the DOMA case). ( 80% confidence )
Created by Pfft on 2013-01-22; known on 2013-07-01; judged right by Pfft on 2013-06-26.
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Rep. Edward Markey (D) defeats Gabriel Gomez® in the Massachusetts Senate special election ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-05-09; known on 2013-06-26; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-06-26.
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HPMoR : ch 120 (or sooner): After understanding the death's place in evolution of life and mind, Harry would refuse become a Creator of the Words. ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by mat33 on 2012-04-01; known on 2015-07-01; judged wrong by David on 2015-06-23.
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HPMoR : ch 120 (or sooner): After understanding the death's place in evolution of life and mind, Harry would refuse become a Creator of the Words. ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by mat33 on 2012-04-01; known on 2015-07-01; judged wrong by David on 2015-06-23.
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The Magic: the Gathering block “Theros” will be Classical/Greek/Roman/Hellenistic themed. ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-03-25; known on 2013-09-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-06-23.