Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 67% | 50% | 100% | 50% | 20% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 3 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 25 |
Displaying all predictions made by regex. Filter by:
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The first SpaceX Falcon Heavy launch will be declared successful, whether it meets all objectives or not. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-03; known on 2018-02-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2018-02-06.
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The first SpaceX Falcon Heavy launch will fail to make its desired orbit. ( 45% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-03; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by enolan on 2018-02-06.
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I will get four A's this term ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by regex on 2017-09-17; known on 2018-01-17.
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>50% of the world population has to scan their eye(/iris) at least once per day ( 3% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-27; known on 2020-08-19; judged wrong by NickN on 2020-08-20.
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C still widely in use in the 2020s ( 93% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-16; known on 2029-12-31.
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SpaceX will delay the initial launch of the Falcon Heavy past the end of November ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-03; known on 2017-11-30; judged right by Athrithalix on 2017-11-02.
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Someone senior in the trump administration goes to jail over collusion with the russians ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-21; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by timmartin on 2018-01-04.
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I will get no worse than a B- for any class this term ( 60% confidence )
Created by regex on 2017-09-17; known on 2018-01-17; judged right by regex on 2018-05-04.
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I will get at least two A's this term ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by regex on 2017-09-17; known on 2018-01-17; judged wrong by regex on 2017-10-28.
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North Korea gets nuked by January 1, 2018 ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-08-28; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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It will be revealed that there is a massive pedophile ring is operating within the United States government ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-28; known on 2025-01-28.
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Personal – I identify as nonbinary or a woman by the end of June 2018. ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-25; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-07-06.
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Half of world GDP is China. ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-17; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-30.
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Mexico will pay for (at least 50% of) the cost of the United States southern border wall. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-22; known on 2023-01-23; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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The labor force participation rate will increase above 66% at least once while Trump is on office ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-03-12; known on 2025-03-12.
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Trump will win California in 2020 ( 13% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-02-28; known on 2021-02-28; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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There will be at least five times more human trafficking arrests in the United States during the four years after Trump became president than the four years prior. ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-02-13; known on 2020-01-20; judged wrong by regex on 2020-01-22.
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Trump will not be impeached ( 78% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2025-01-30; judged wrong by regex on 2019-12-19.
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Trump will win a second term ( 46% confidence; 74 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2020-11-08; judged wrong by regex on 2020-11-20.
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Trump's investigation into illegal voting will report at least 500,000 illegal votes cast in the 2016 election. ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-25; known on 2021-01-25.
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LePen elected president of france, 2017 ( 43% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by regex on 2017-05-07.
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Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee for President in 2016. ( 52% confidence; 88 wagers; 55 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-14; known on 2016-07-20; judged right by elephantower on 2016-07-16.
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The fifth match with AlphaGo will go to the end game (as described by the commentators), and then AlphaGo will resign. ( 38% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by regex on 2016-03-15; known on 2016-03-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-15.
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AlphaGo will win the 5th match against Lee Sedol ( 68% confidence; 12 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by artir on 2016-03-13; known on 2016-03-16; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-15.
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Olivia will not give any instrumental rationality material to Regex ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by daniel74f on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-02-01; judged right by regex on 2016-01-25.
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Donald Trump to be the next elected President of the United Stated. ( 21% confidence; 53 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-10; known on 2016-11-12; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-09.
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Polio in the wild eliminated by 2025 —Tachi Yamada ( 58% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2025-01-01.
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AIDS vaccine by 2035 —Tachi Yamada ( 57% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2035-01-01.
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“A nuclear explosive weapon will be used in war or terrorism.” ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2030-01-01.
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“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant — a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid — anywhere in the world.” ( 38% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-12-31.
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“By 2025 at least 50% of all U.S. citizens residing within the United States will have some form of technology embedded in their bodies for the purpose of tracking and identification.” ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2025-01-01.
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The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026. ( 14% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by freyley on 2009-10-20; known on 2026-10-20; judged unknown by freyley on 2009-10-21.