Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 12 |
Displaying all predictions made by mjgeddes. Filter by:
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Dorian S. Nakamoto is the Satoshi Nakamoto. (Nobody will prove / find really compelling evidence as to why Dorian is not Satoshi in 2014) ( 31% confidence; 27 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by Tenoke on 2014-03-06; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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Some group in Pakistan has already developed a super-intelligence (as of 2009). ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mjgeddes on 2009-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged wrong by Grognor on 2014-08-20.
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There will be strong evidence of technologically advanced (contemporary human level or greater) extraterrestrial life by 2016. ETA: evidence of a technologically advanced civilization existing or having existed somewhere outside our solar system. ( 6% confidence; 31 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
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There will be strong indications of extrasolar life by 2016. ( 19% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2016-01-01.
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By January 1, 2011 one or more of the following will happen (1) Israel will launch a military attack against Iran, (2) The U.S. will launch a military attack against Iran or (3) a significant number of countries will ban the sale of gasoline to Iran. ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JamesMiller on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-02.
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A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040. ( 68% confidence; 46 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by rwallace on 2009-10-14; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by freyley on 2009-10-21.
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Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years. ( 85% confidence; 16 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2019-10-14; judged right by rwallace on 2019-10-15.
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Civil conflict will break out in the US by the end of 2011. ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by max on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.
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The US economy will collapse resulting in massive inflation prior to the end of 2010. ( 30% confidence; 24 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by max on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-01-01.
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Bayesian Induction will be proven to be merely a special case of analogical reasoning by 2014 ( 17% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by mjgeddes on 2009-10-14; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-08.
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'Alcopop' to win Melbourne Cup (Australian horse racing) ( 17% confidence )
Created by mjgeddes on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-11-03; judged wrong by mjgeddes on 2009-11-04.
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'Allez Wonder' to win Caulfield Cup (Australian horse racing) ( 10% confidence )
Created by mjgeddes on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-10-17; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-10-18.