Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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There will not be a recession in this decade (two consecutive quarters of negative gdp growth) in the US. ( 34% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-02-10; known on 2020-01-02; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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“The US will not enter a recession” ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Uber will IPO before January 1, 2020. ( 50% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2020-01-02; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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IRS turns Trump's tax returns over to Congress ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-05-22; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Amazon will acquire Boston Dynamics, and this will be publicly announced before the end of 2019 ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-04-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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“Neither India nor China will enter a recession” ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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“The United Kingdom will leave the European Union” ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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“No Democratic presidential candidate will become a clear frontrunner in the political prediction markets at any point in 2019” ( 45% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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[Economy] S&P 500 to outperform Shanghai Stock Index in 2019 ( 46% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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“Donald Trump will still be in office” ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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A nuclear bomb (primary, not dirty) will be detonated, anywhere on earth, immediately killing more than 100 people, any time between 2015/1/1 and 2020/1/1. ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by brandyn on 2015-01-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-01-01.
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“Bionic eyes are commercially available” in 2019 ( 22% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-01-01.
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Kosovo has <117 diplomatic recognitions ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-02-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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The Chavista regime rules Venezuela ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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I will have filed at least 1 application for a patent by 2020 ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-10-08; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-01-01.
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The Taliban control most of Afghanistan including Kabul ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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The Navier-Stokes Millennium prize will be awarded before 2020-01-01 ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-05-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-01-01.
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Most human workers spend the majority of their time acquiring new skills and knowledge by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 2% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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By 2020, Puerto Rico will be admitted to the Union ( 39% confidence; 18 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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“Trump is still leading in prediction markets to be Republican nominee” ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-01.
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“Britain holds second Brexit referendum” ( 22% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-01-01.
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“No other EU country announces plan to leave” ( 85% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-01.
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“Dow above current value of 25000” ( 51% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-01.
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“Trump’s approval rating below 40” ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-01-01.
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“Trump’s approval rating below 50” ( 79% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-01.
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“Bitcoin above Ethereum” ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-01.
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“Ginsberg [sic!] still alive” ( 54% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-01.
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“Bitcoin above 5000” ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-01.
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“Bitcoin above 3000” ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-01.
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“Bitcoin above 1000” ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-01.
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“By 2020 open elections are held for the Iranian presidency (no significant factions excluded from participation)” —Jack ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Planetary Resources won't be mining asteroids by 2020 ( 84% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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The RTX 2080 Ti will see an official price reduction (MSRP) of at least 300$ before the end of 2019. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jazzsolo on 2018-12-03; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by jazzsolo on 2020-01-01.
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[USDCNY: As of December 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.9 ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Aoki Uru will be released as a full movie by 2020. ( 5% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Paul Graham: Bitcoin may have been created by a government ( 6% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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[USDCNY: As of December 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.6 ( 90% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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[Fighting] Conor McGregor to fight in a discipline other than MMA in 2019 ( 12% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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“energy consumption will grow on a par or less than population growth.” —W.H. Pearson ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Most business transactions or information inquiries involve dealing with a simulated person. —Ray Kurzweil ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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By 2020, MS's Bing will have 25% of the American search market (from 13% in 2010). ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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The Collatz Conjecture will not be proven/disproven this year ( 99% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-08-03; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2020. ( 86% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-31; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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“[Chinese growth] will hit an average of 3% well before the end of the decade” —Michael Pettis ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-28; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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“That by 2020 it will be possible and desirable for urban houses to have a room in the house designed for, and dedicated to, producing a household's entire water supply. This will be achievable through condensation (a terarium effect) and using solar pane ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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[Politics] Carrie Lam to resign by 2019 EOY ( 55% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-06-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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'Smart meters in every UK home' ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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[USDCNY: As of December 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.5 ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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[USDCNY: As of December 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 7 ( 60% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Human whole-genome sequencing <=$100 by 2020. ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-28; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.