Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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I will respond to ᒉᐦᔅᐦᑎᓐ by 8pm EST on February 22, 2022 ( 90% confidence )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-22; known on 2022-02-23; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-23.
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[ Geopolitics , Military ] Russia attacks Ukraine even further within 100 (one hundred) days ( 75% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2022-02-10; known on 2022-05-21; judged right by two2thehead on 2022-02-22.
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No board member will facilitate the EA @ GT lunch on Tuesday, February 22 ( 60% confidence )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-22; known on 2022-02-23; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-22.
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Russia to invade Ukraine by midnight EST, Feb 25. ( 59% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-19; known on 2022-02-26; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-02-24.
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Russia to invade Ukraine by midnight EST, Feb 25. ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-22; known on 2022-02-26; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-22.
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Russia to invade Ukraine by midnight EST, Feb 25. ( 59% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-19; known on 2022-02-26; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-02-24.
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People will need a 2nd vaccine booster shot within 4 months of receiving their first booster shot. #secondbooster #vaccineboosters ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by julietierney14 on 2021-12-28; known on 2022-01-28; judged wrong by michaelchen on 2022-02-22.
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Tech – Manifold Markets implements editing resolve time of markets before 21th Feb 2022 05:00 UTC ( 19% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-17; known on 2022-02-21; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-02-22.
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Russia to invade Ukraine by midnight EST, Feb 25. ( 59% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-19; known on 2022-02-26; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-02-24.
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Ich werde bei Tilman an der BA schreiben ( 40% confidence )
Created by Jeedo on 2022-02-16; known on 2022-02-21; judged wrong by Jeedo on 2022-02-21.
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Russia to invade Ukraine by midnight EST, Feb 25. ( 59% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-19; known on 2022-02-26; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-02-24.
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Russia to invade Ukraine by midnight EST, Feb 25. ( 59% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-19; known on 2022-02-26; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-02-24.
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Russia to invade Ukraine by midnight EST, Feb 25. ( 59% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-19; known on 2022-02-26; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-02-24.
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COVID, UK – Queen Elizabeth II is publicly confirmed to have COVID before 2022-02-20 05:00 UTC ( 6% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-16; known on 2022-02-20; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-02-20.
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“Anti-fat drugs are available” in 2018 ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-18; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-02-19.
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Politics, UK – Sadiq Khan recives over 60% of the votes in the final round of the London Mayoral election. ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-07; known on 2021-05-07; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-02-18.
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Tech – Manifold Markets implements a public API allowing retrieving predictions by the 1st of July 2022 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-17; known on 2022-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-02-18.
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Fiction – The webcomic Order of the Stick updates between now and 2022-02-20 08:00 UTC ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-16; known on 2022-02-20; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-18.
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The steelers will win the superbowl ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Nate13195 on 2021-11-10; known on 2022-02-15; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-02-18.
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I will spend at least two Pomodori on ML interview prep before 1pm on Thursday, February 17 ( 100% confidence )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-17; known on 2022-02-18; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-18.
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http://www.longbets.org/601 will be a broken link in 11 years —Jeremy Keith ( 13% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-19; known on 2022-02-18; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-18.
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[At the 2022 Winter Olympics the winner in men's singles will be:] Yuzuru Hanyu ( 60% confidence )
Created by huera on 2022-01-01; known on 2022-02-10; judged wrong by huera on 2022-02-18.
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[At the 2022 Winter Olympics the winner in men's singles will be:] Nathan Chen ( 38% confidence )
Created by huera on 2022-01-01; known on 2022-02-10; judged right by huera on 2022-02-18.
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[At the 2022 Winter Olympics the winner in men's singles will be:] Mikhail Kolyada ( 0% confidence )
Created by huera on 2022-01-01; known on 2022-02-10; judged wrong by huera on 2022-02-18.
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[At the 2022 Winter Olympics the winner in women's singles will be:] Kamila Valieva ( 97% confidence )
Created by huera on 2022-01-01; known on 2022-02-17; judged wrong by huera on 2022-02-18.
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[At the 2022 Winter Olympics the winner in women's singles will be:] Anna Shcherbakova ( 1% confidence )
Created by huera on 2022-01-01; known on 2022-02-17; judged right by huera on 2022-02-18.
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[At the 2022 Winter Olympics the winner in women's singles will be:] Alexandra Trusova ( 2% confidence )
Created by huera on 2022-01-01; known on 2022-02-17; judged wrong by huera on 2022-02-18.
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[At the 2022 Winter Olympics the winner in women's singles will be:] Kaori Sakamoto ( 0% confidence )
Created by huera on 2022-01-01; known on 2022-02-17; judged wrong by huera on 2022-02-18.
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[At the 2022 Winter Olympics the winner in women's singles will be:] Loena Hendrickx ( 0% confidence )
Created by huera on 2022-01-01; known on 2022-02-17; judged wrong by huera on 2022-02-18.
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[At the 2022 Winter Olympics the winners in ice dance will be:] Papadakis / Cizeron ( 93% confidence )
Created by huera on 2022-01-01; known on 2022-02-14; judged right by huera on 2022-02-18.
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[At the 2022 Winter Olympics the winners in ice dance will be:] Sinitsina / Katsalapov ( 5% confidence )
Created by huera on 2022-01-01; known on 2022-02-14; judged wrong by huera on 2022-02-18.
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The next German president (Bundespräsident) is female (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_German_presidential_election) ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by M on 2021-11-30; known on 2022-02-17; judged wrong by M on 2022-02-17.
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I will spend at least two Pomodori on ML interview prep before 1pm on Wednesday, February 16, and at least 10 Pomodori in total by 10pm ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-16; known on 2022-05-17; judged wrong by michaelchen on 2022-02-17.
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I will continue to drink at least 1 cup of coffee daily on most weekdays through the end of this calendar year ( 80% confidence )
Created by Radish on 2020-08-12; known on 2021-01-02; judged right by Radish on 2022-02-16.
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I will spend at least five hours on ML interview prep on Tuesday, February 15 by 11pm EST ( 85% confidence )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-15; known on 2022-02-16; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-16.
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I will spend at least four hours on February 12, 2021 (EST) on studying machine learning ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-12; known on 2022-02-13; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-15.
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COVID, UK – NHS recommends Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before deadline. ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-31; known on 2021-09-30; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-02-15.
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Finance, US – DTCC found guilty by any kind of court or regulator for misconduct relating to handling of “counterfeit” GameStop (GME) shares by deadline. ( 1% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-02-02; known on 2022-02-02; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-02-15.
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I will be divorced by the end of 2021. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Tot on 2021-09-08; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by Tot on 2022-02-14.
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My paper will be accepted this time. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by fryolysis on 2022-01-03; known on 2022-02-15; judged wrong by fryolysis on 2022-02-13.
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World War 3 next year ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-07; known on 2022-02-06; judged wrong by meedstrom on 2022-02-13.
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Lil Nas X's debut album (not his EP) will peak at #1 on the Billboard 200 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by bendini on 2019-07-12; known on 2021-07-07; judged wrong by bendini on 2022-02-11.
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bitcoin worth 66k+ in a year ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-08; known on 2022-02-08; judged wrong by pdf on 2022-02-11.
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DATE -> SEX: I will sleep with Valeria ( 50% confidence )
Created by pancakemouse on 2022-02-07; known on 2022-02-08; judged wrong by pancakemouse on 2022-02-08.
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In Weir's Artemis, ZAFO is a ebbz grzcrengher fhcrepbaqhpgbe. ( 65% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2022-02-07; known on 2022-02-21; judged wrong by Leo on 2022-02-07.
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[I will get married in] 2022 ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Leo on 2021-08-12; known on 2024-01-02; judged right by Leo on 2022-02-07.
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[I will get married in] 2021 ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Leo on 2021-08-12; known on 2024-01-02; judged wrong by Leo on 2022-02-07.
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DATE -> SEX: I will sleep with Macarena ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pancakemouse on 2022-02-05; known on 2022-02-06; judged wrong by pancakemouse on 2022-02-06.
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Apple stock prices will go over 170 after annual report is released ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by he666 on 2022-01-21; known on 2022-01-28; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-02-06.
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DATE -> SEX: I will sleep with Agustina ( 60% confidence )
Created by pancakemouse on 2021-12-18; known on 2021-12-19; judged right by pancakemouse on 2022-02-05.