Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 53% | 65% | 78% | 86% | 94% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 616 | 437 | 419 | 458 | 711 | 175 | 2816 |
Displaying all predictions made by JoshuaZ. Filter by:
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Faster-than-light travel developed before 2050 ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.
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Time travel developed before 2050 ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.
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I will complete my expense for the tax year by the end of September ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by taryneast on 2015-09-21; known on 2015-09-30; judged wrong by taryneast on 2015-10-07.
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Teleportation to be developed before 2050 ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-20; known on 2050-01-01.
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Mouse, rat, rabbit, or other small mammal successfully revived from cryopreservation before 2050 ( 29% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-17; known on 2050-01-01.
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Fraction of U.S GDP devoted to computer and electronics hardware will be higher than 5%(from 1.5% now) by 2025 according to BEA data ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ArturoGoosnargh on 2015-09-17; known on 2025-01-24.
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BRICS will pass the USA's GDP at USD in current prices(nominal). ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-17; known on 2016-09-25; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-10-14.
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Google's refugee donation matching to hit ~$5m limit within the year ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Caleb Withers on 2015-09-17; known on 2016-09-17; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-17.
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Current Illinois governor Bruce Rauner will be found guilty of any illegal crime ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-17; known on 2025-01-01.
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2016 election to be Trump (Republican) v. non Hillary ( 12% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-16; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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On December 1st, 2016 I will have made more money on PredictIt than I spent. ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-09-16; known on 2016-12-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2017-10-25.
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Alcor's membership will be 11% or more greater in 2016 than 2015 ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-15; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2017-01-01.
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Due to Bharat's industrialization prices will boom in an exact replay of what happened in 2001-11 commodity bull market driven by Zhongguo. Commodities prices, as measured by the Continuous Commodity Index (CCI), will rise at least 275% since the start ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-15; known on 2026-12-31.
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Bharatnet is the world’s largest rural broadband connectivity project. 600 million rural citizens of Bharat will be linked across 250 000 Gram Panchayats(village) through optical fibre. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-15; known on 2017-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-27.
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The 2015 budget has 60 GW of wind power by 2022. Bharat will then place 2nd in the world from 5th. Source: Global Wind Energy Council http://www.gwec.net/ ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-15; known on 2022-12-25.
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Non-Liberal Prime Minister after the next Australian Federal Election ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Caleb Withers on 2015-09-14; known on 2016-11-25; judged wrong by waveman on 2016-07-16.
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Bharat will pass the USA and EU in electricity production by 2029. 2nd largest oil importer in 2020. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-14; known on 2029-12-31.
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Jace, Vryn's Prodigy will be worth at least $50 by the end of 2016. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by bshih on 2015-09-14; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by bshih on 2017-01-01.
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Hangarback Walker will be worth at least $20 by end of 2016. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by bshih on 2015-09-14; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by bshih on 2017-01-01.
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Donald Trump will lose the New Hampshire primary. ( 56% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by KBVMD on 2015-09-13; known on 2016-02-09; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-02-10.
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Donald Trump will lose the Iowa caucuses. ( 61% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by KBVMD on 2015-09-13; known on 2016-02-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-02.
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John McDonnell to be the next UK Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2015-09-13; known on 2015-09-23; judged right by splorridge on 2015-09-13.
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Jeremy Corbyn will remain leader of the Labour party until the next general election ( 63% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2015-09-13; known on 2020-05-07; judged right by splorridge on 2017-06-14.
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In the Republican primary Kasich to win Ohio, New Hampshire and at least one other state ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-13; known on 2016-05-15; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2016-03-02.
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Bharat will be the world's second largest producer and consumer of steel in 2016(from 4th in 2014).Production 140 MT and consumption 104MT. ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-13; known on 2016-12-25.
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Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) of Bharat has released a year-by-year breakdown of solar capacity targets by states to reach its overall 100 GW solar capacity target by 2022. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-13; known on 2022-12-25.
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CNC Mills designed specifically for the manufacture of ghost guns (such as ghost gunner which is designed for easy AR-15 manufacturing) will be illegal (or effectively banned) in the U.S. by 2020 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by prophetofprofit on 2015-09-12; known on 2020-01-01.
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Nicole Arbour will make a public apology for Dear Fat People in the next 6 weeks. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-09-12; known on 2015-10-24; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-24.
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After the next Australian federal election, a member of the Labor party will be sworn in as Prime Minister. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-09-11; known on 2017-02-01; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2017-02-01.
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The BRICS will pass the G7 in percentage of world GDP in 2016. Data source will be the IMF. As of 2015: 31.86% G7 vs BRICS 30.58%. ( 34% confidence; 8 wagers; 22 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-11; known on 2016-12-25; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-07-06.
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The BRICS share will pass the combined US + EU in percentage of world GDP in 2019. ( 86% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-11; known on 2019-12-25; judged unknown by sebbit on 2019-12-05.
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Hillary Clinton will be the 2016 Democratic nominee for US President. ( 81% confidence; 39 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by m2bn on 2015-09-11; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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By the end of 2015, Madplatypus will self-identify as one of the following: Buddhist, fascist, or anti-natalist. ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-09-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Madplatypus on 2016-01-01.
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Any of Denmark, Finland, Germany, Luxembourg, Norway or Sweden defaults its sovereign debt in 2015. ( 0% confidence; 21 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2015-09-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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Luxembourg defaults its sovereign debt in 2015. ( 0% confidence; 14 wagers )
Created by kuudes on 2015-09-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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Germany defaults its sovereign debt in 2015. ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by kuudes on 2015-09-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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Finland defaults its sovereign debt in 2015. ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers )
Created by kuudes on 2015-09-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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Denmark defaults its sovereign debt in 2015. ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by kuudes on 2015-09-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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Norway defaults its sovereign debt in 2015. ( 0% confidence; 22 wagers )
Created by kuudes on 2015-09-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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Sweden defaults its sovereign debt in 2015. ( 0% confidence; 21 wagers )
Created by kuudes on 2015-09-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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BRIC will rank in the top 5 of military spenders by 2030. Zhongguo 2,Bharat 3,Rossiya 4,Brasil 5 This in USD at current prices. Data source is Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-10; known on 2031-01-01.
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By 2019, for the first time in history, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato) will not account for a majority of worldwide defence expenditure. It accounted for almost two-thirds of global spending as recently as 2010,” said IHS. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-10; known on 2019-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.
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Universal Secondary Education by 2017 for Bharat.Gross Enrolment Ratio, which is at 78.51% will be at least 97%. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-10; known on 2017-12-27; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-27.
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Bharat will cut under 5 mortality rate to 25 deaths or fewer per 1000 live births in 15 years. Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-10; known on 2030-12-31.
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Google to replace Intel as the next sponsor of the Intel Science Talent Search. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-09; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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Bharat to be third-biggest defence spender by 2020 -IHS Defence Budgets Annual Report ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-08; known on 2020-12-25.
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By January 1, 2056, under the assumptions that PH not collapse to finite level, PH != PSPACE, and PSPACE != EXP, UGC, ETH , GI is not in BQP, factoring is not in P, and NC != P, proven that ZPP in Beta_P^{Ring iso, MSCP}. ( 69% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-07; known on 2056-01-01.
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I will have submitted two or more papers to academic journals by 2017-01-01 ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2017-01-01.
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A heat engine which beats the Carnot efficiency will be developed before 2050 ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-07; known on 2050-01-01.
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I will change careers into some kind of software development job by Winter 2017 ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-09-07; known on 2017-11-01; judged right by Idrinkitup on 2018-01-19.
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From today until January 1st, 2017 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 51% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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From today until January 1st, 2023 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-07-12.
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From today until January 1st, 2022 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 19% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-07-12.
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From today until January 1st, 2021 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-07-12.
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From today until January 1st, 2020 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-07-12.
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From today until January 1st, 2019 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-07-12.
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From today until January 1st, 2018 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 43% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-07-12.
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6th edition of Dungeons and Dragons to come out by January 1, 2030. ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-06; known on 2030-01-01.
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At least one episode of Season 3 of RWBY will come out before January 30, 2016 ( 65% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-05; known on 2016-01-30; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-30.
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US energy consumption per capita will be above 400 Million Btu at any time from 2016 through 2050 ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-05; known on 2051-01-01.
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New Zealand will vote to change its flag in the 2016 referendum. ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-09-05; known on 2016-03-25; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-24.
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Bernie Sanders is the next US President elect ( 12% confidence; 30 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-09-03; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by Afforess on 2016-10-06.
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US energy consumption per capita will be below 250 Million Btu at any time from 2016 through 2050 ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-03; known on 2051-01-01.
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Right-leaning political parties, relative to the political parties currently in power, will control a greater number of majority positions of executive or (all) legislative branches of EU-member countries than at present. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2015-09-01; known on 2025-09-01.
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The Schengen Agreement will be terminated within 5 years. ( 26% confidence; 15 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by danpop on 2015-08-29; known on 2018-08-29; judged wrong by sdr on 2018-08-29.
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World's total fertility rate will fall to replacement rate by 2025. In 1960, women worldwide had an average of 5 children. The rate has since halved, and in 2012, women had an average of 2.5 children across all regions. The World Bank is the source. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-08-29; known on 2025-12-31.
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Ted Cruz to win the Republican nomination for President. ( 14% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-27; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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By January 1, 2035 superconductor with critical temperature at least 200 K at 1 atmosphere of pressure will be discovered. ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-27; known on 2035-01-01.
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By January 1, 2034, at least 5 superconducting lines to be active parts of one of the major American electric grids. ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-27; known on 2034-01-01.
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By January 1, 2036, shown that at least the first 10^15 non-trivial zeros of the Riemann Zeta function obey the Riemann hypothesis (that is lie on the s= 1/2 line) ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-27; known on 2036-01-01.
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By January 1, 2042, proven that at least 9/10ths of the non-trivial zeros of the Riemann zeta function lie on the real line (proportionally). ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-27; known on 2042-01-01.
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US obesity rate above 31.6% in 2030 ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-26; known on 2031-01-01.
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US obesity rate above 28.9% in 2020 ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-26; known on 2021-01-01.
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Bernie Sanders will win the 2016 Iowa Democratic caucus. ( 29% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-08-25; known on 2016-02-02; judged wrong by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-02.
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Joe Biden will win the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination. ( 10% confidence; 28 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-08-25; known on 2016-09-15; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-09-02.
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Universal basic income will be adopted in at least 50% of the G20 countries within 10 years ( 10% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by sflicht on 2015-08-07; known on 2025-08-08.
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More than 25% of durable consumer goods will be 3D printed during 2050 ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-12; known on 2051-01-02.
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The Renminbi will eclipse the US dollar as Reserve Currency in 2022. Central banks will hold their reserves in renminbi instead of the USD as they currently do. The USD will be No2 instead of No1. The IMF will be the source of data. ( 15% confidence; 14 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-17; known on 2022-05-28; judged wrong by amadeu on 2022-05-26.
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Bicycling mortality rate in US will be above 0.06 in 2050 ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-24; known on 2051-01-01.
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Bicycling mortality rate in US will be above 0.12 in 2030 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-24; known on 2031-01-01.
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Bicycling mortality rate in US will be above 0.09 in 2040 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-24; known on 2041-01-01.
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Bicycling mortality rate in US will be above 0.16 in 2020 ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-22; known on 2021-01-02.
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I will get a library card by the end of the month. ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-24; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2015-09-03.
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Non-condom reversible male contraception approved by the FDA by 2030 ( 73% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-23; known on 2030-01-02.
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The VIX index will go above 32 before September 18th, 2015. ( 89% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-08-23; known on 2015-09-18; judged right by kuudes on 2015-08-24.
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The Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in September. ( 75% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-08-23; known on 2015-09-17; judged right by Afforess on 2015-09-17.
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Burning man predictions: I will get at least 1 bug bite. ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-22; known on 2015-09-07; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-09-07.
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By January 1, 2045, a superconductor with a critical temperature of at least 240 K will be discovered. ( 65% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-21; known on 2045-01-01.
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By January 1, 2035, a superconductor which has a critical temperature of at least 225 K will be discovered. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-21; known on 2035-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-10-15.
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By January 1, 2035, a superconductor with critical temperature at leas 215 K will be discovered. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-21; known on 2035-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-10-15.
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Uber will be banned from Manhattan by the end of 2016. ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mikayla on 2015-08-21; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2017-01-01.
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Gathering/absorbing Hawking radiation and generating a net surplus of useful energy (not counting what you feed into the black hole) would violate the Second Law of Thermodynamics. ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by orthonormal on 2015-08-18; known on 2016-01-01.
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As of 2015-08-19, Eliezer Yudkowsky has solved the hard problem of consciousness. ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2015-08-20; known on 2045-08-20.
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Alex will learn how to ride a bike at Burning Man. ( 72% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-19; known on 2015-09-10; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-09-24.
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Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050 ( 29% confidence; 14 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-19; known on 2051-01-01.
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There will be 1000 people living in space habitats before there are 1000 people living on Mars ( 77% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by moridinamael on 2015-08-17; known on 2100-01-01.
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California will experience a magnitude 6.0 earthquake or stronger in 2015 ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2015-08-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Afforess on 2016-01-07.
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Almost all commercial airplanes will have outlets by 2030 ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by cmessinger on 2015-08-17; known on 2030-01-07.
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Greece will have a Guaranteed Minimum Income or other type of basic income before end of 06/2017 for more than 90% of its working age population. ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2015-08-16; known on 2017-07-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-07-02.
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Armed conflict in space before 2050 ( 10% confidence; 8 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-16; known on 2050-01-01.