Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 62% | 76% | 80% | 94% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 300 | 260 | 195 | 249 | 347 | 149 | 1500 |
Displaying all predictions made by Jayson Virissimo. Filter by:
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I will complete chapter 4 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Statistics within the next 9 hours. ( 100% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-04; known on 2012-07-04; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-04.
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I will complete Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 3 months. ( 66% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03; known on 2012-10-03; judged wrong by Pablo on 2012-10-12.
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I will complete Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 2 months. ( 33% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03; known on 2012-09-03; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-06.
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I will complete Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next month. ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03; known on 2012-08-03; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-24.
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I will complete The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Statistics within the next 7 weeks. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03; known on 2012-08-21; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-06.
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I will complete The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Statistics within the next 6 weeks. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03; known on 2012-08-14; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-16.
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I will complete The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Statistics within the next 5 weeks. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03; known on 2012-08-07; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-06.
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I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 8 hours. ( 15% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03; known on 2012-07-03; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03.
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I will complete chapter 3 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Statistics within the next 8 hours. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03; known on 2012-07-03; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03.
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I will complete chapter 17 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 8 hours. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03; known on 2012-07-03; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03.
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My “shaming” comment will have negative karma at the end of 1 week from now. ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-02; known on 2012-07-09; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-10.
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Djokovic will win wimbledon 2012 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by sucrenoir on 2012-07-02; known on 2012-07-09; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2012-07-09.
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My plane to Shanghai will crash tomorrow ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Christopher on 2012-07-02; known on 2012-07-03; judged wrong by Christopher on 2012-07-03.
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(All) Wikipedias' total editor base will be >=95,000 in June 2012. ( 30% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2012-08-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-04.
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I will be hired as a 'crime analyst' before 2013. ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-26.
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I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 20% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-02; known on 2012-07-02; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-02.
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I will complete chapter 16 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-02; known on 2012-07-02; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-02.
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I will complete chapter 2 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Statistics within the next 10 hours. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-02; known on 2012-07-02; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-02.
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I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 9 hours. ( 30% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-01; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-01.
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I will complete chapter 1 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Statistics within the next 9 hours. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-01; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-01.
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I will complete chapter 16 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 9 hours. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-01; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-01.
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There will be at least one implanted device (medical or otherwise) on the market that runs a Linux-based OS within the next 10 years. ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-01; known on 2022-07-01.
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I will be using Linux in 10 years ( 69% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-06-28; known on 2022-06-28; judged right by gwern on 2022-06-29.
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I will be using Bash in 10 years ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-06-28; known on 2022-06-28; judged right by gwern on 2022-06-29.
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I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-27; known on 2012-06-27; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-28.
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I will read chapter V of GEB within the next 10 hours. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-27; known on 2012-06-27; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-28.
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I will complete chapter 18 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 5% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-25; known on 2012-06-25; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-25.
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I will complete chapter 17 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 30% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-25; known on 2012-06-25; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-25.
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I will complete chapter 16 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-25; known on 2012-06-25; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-25.
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I will complete chapter 15 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-25; known on 2012-06-25; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-25.
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I will complete chapter 14 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-25; known on 2012-06-25; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-25.
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Turkey will invade Syria ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by modulus on 2012-06-24; known on 2012-07-15; judged wrong by modulus on 2012-07-15.
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I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-24; known on 2012-06-24; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-24.
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I will complete chapter 13 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-24; known on 2012-06-24; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-24.
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I will complete chapter 9 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Geometry within the next 10 hours. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-24; known on 2012-06-24; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-24.
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For all x, if x is a comment in response to Luke's 'NEW GAME' comment and x contains at least 1 correct answer, then x will have positive karma at the prediction closing time. ( 80% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-19; known on 2012-06-26; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-27.
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Ecuador will accept Julian Assange for asylum before 2014 ( 39% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-06-20; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-08-16.
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I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 8 hours. ( 45% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-20; known on 2012-06-20; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-20.
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I will complete chapter 9 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Geometry within the next 8 hours. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-20; known on 2012-06-20; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-20.
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I will read chapter 2 of The Science of Conjecture within the next 8 hours. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-20; known on 2012-06-20; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-20.
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I will complete chapter 8 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Geometry within the next 8 hours. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-20; known on 2012-06-20; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-20.
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I will read chapter 1 of The Science of Conjecture within the next 8 hours. ( 100% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-20; known on 2012-06-20; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-20.
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Sky City will take more than 90 days of construction time to build or will not be built at all in the next 2 years. ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-06-19; known on 2014-06-19; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
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I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 55% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-19; known on 2012-06-19; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-19.
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I will complete chapter 7 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Geometry within the next 10 hours. ( 65% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-19; known on 2012-06-19; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-19.
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I will complete chapter 12 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-19; known on 2012-06-19; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-19.
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I will complete chapter 6 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Geometry within the next 10 hours. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-19; known on 2012-06-19; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-19.
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I will complete chapter 11 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-19; known on 2012-06-19; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-19.
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I will complete chapter 5 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Geometry within the next 4 hours. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-18; known on 2012-06-18; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-18.
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I will complete chapter 10 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 55% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-18; known on 2012-06-18; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-18.
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I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-18; known on 2012-06-18; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-18.
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I will complete chapter 4 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Geometry within the next 10 hours. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-18; known on 2012-06-18; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-18.
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I will complete chapter 9 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-18; known on 2012-06-18; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-18.
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I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 5 hours. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-15; known on 2012-06-15; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-16.
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In Diablo 3 patch 1.0.3, the life on hit/proc coefficient for Fists of Thunder's Thunderclap rune will be reduced. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by tadrinth on 2012-06-14; known on 2012-07-05; judged wrong by tadrinth on 2012-07-05.
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I will complete my geometry flashcard deck and merge it with my master deck within the next 5 hours. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-14; known on 2012-06-14; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-14.
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I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 5 hours. ( 100% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-14; known on 2012-06-14; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-14.
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I will read chapter V of GEB within the next 5 hours. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-14; known on 2012-06-14; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-14.
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After the next German Federal Election, the Chancellor will be from the Christian Democrat Party. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-13; known on 2014-02-01; judged right by on 2014-02-01.
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After the next German Federal Election, the Chancellor will be from the Social Democrat Party. ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-13; known on 2014-02-01; judged wrong by on 2014-02-01.
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After the next Dutch General Election, the Prime Minister will be from the People's Party for Freedom. ( 30% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Leo on 2013-01-26.
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After the next Dutch General Election, the Prime Minister will be from the Labor Party. ( 30% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Leo on 2013-01-26.
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After the next Dutch General Election, the Prime Minister will be from the Socialist Party. ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.
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Neither the Republican Candidate for President nor the Democratic Candidate for President will win Arizona in 2012. ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-13; known on 2012-12-01; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-11-07.
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The Democratic Candidate for President will win Arizona in 2012. ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-13; known on 2012-12-01; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-11-07.
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The Republican Candidate for President will win Arizona in 2012. ( 80% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-13; known on 2012-12-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 100% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-13; known on 2012-06-13; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-13.
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I will read chapter IV of GEB within the next 10 hours. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-13; known on 2012-06-13; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-13.
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Usain Bolt breaks previous 100m world record during 2012 Olympics ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by chimpsky on 2012-06-12; known on 2012-08-05; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-08-13.
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Zynga will fall below $3 before June 1, 2013 ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-06-12; known on 2013-06-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26.
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I will read chapter IV of GEB within the next 10 hours. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-12; known on 2012-06-12; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-12.
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I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-12; known on 2012-06-12; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-12.
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I will complete chapter 8 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-12; known on 2012-06-12; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-12.
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Will Newsome will publicly endorse http://www.timecube.com/ as the most accurate website ever made. ( 10% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-06-11; known on 2018-06-16; judged wrong by muflax on 2017-08-19.
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Greece will exit the euro within the next 2 months ( 21% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Michael Stevens on 2012-06-11; known on 2012-08-11; judged wrong by Michael Stevens on 2012-08-11.
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I will complete chapter 8 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-11; known on 2012-06-11; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-11.
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I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-11; known on 2012-06-11; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-11.
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I will read chapter III of GEB within the next 10 hours. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-11; known on 2012-06-11; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-11.
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Esmat will fail at least 4 papers in his finals. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-04; known on 2012-06-10.
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I will complete chapter 8 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-10; known on 2012-06-10; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-10.
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I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-10; known on 2012-06-10; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-10.
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I will read chapter II of GEB within the next 10 hours. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-10; known on 2012-06-10; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-10.
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Scotland will vote in favour of independence in the 2014 referendum ( 28% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by chimpsky on 2012-06-07; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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Mubarak will have passed away by mid 2013 ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-06-07; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by holycow81 on 2013-06-09.
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I will read chapter I and II of GEB within the next 10 hours. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-06; known on 2012-06-06; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-06.
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I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 100% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-06; known on 2012-06-06; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-06.
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I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-05; known on 2012-06-05; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-05.
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I will complete chapter 7 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-05; known on 2012-06-05; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-05.
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iPhone 5 will launch in September of 2012 — Brian White, Topeka Capital Market ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-06-04; known on 2012-10-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-09-13.
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I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 9 hours. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-04; known on 2012-06-04; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-04.
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I will complete chapter 6 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 9 hours. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-04; known on 2012-06-04; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-04.
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I will apply to at least 1 graduate school by the end of the summer. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Primeval on 2012-06-03; known on 2012-08-01; judged wrong by Primeval on 2012-08-02.
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Bloom & Speak Bilingual Tx, will be operable by 2012-8-1 ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Primeval on 2012-06-03; known on 2012-08-01; judged right by Primeval on 2012-08-02.
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By default, the Command Prompt in Windows 8 RTM will be resizable (to an increase in width) by dragging the corner resizer. ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-09; known on 2012-08-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-03.
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LessWrong user XiXiDu or a XiXiDu sockpuppet will post a comment or article to lesswrong.com before 2018 ( 89% confidence; 12 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-06-03; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-09-04.
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I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-03; known on 2012-06-03; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-03.
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I will complete chapter 5 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-03; known on 2012-06-03; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-03.
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I will complete chapter 2 of the All-In-One LPIC-1/CompTIA Linux+ Certification Exam Guide within the next 10 hours. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-03; known on 2012-06-03; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-03.
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I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 3 hours. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-31; known on 2012-05-31; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-31.
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I will reread chapter 2 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 3 hours. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-31; known on 2012-05-31; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-31.