Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 42% | 66% | 75% | 84% | 94% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 43 | 70 | 113 | 95 | 143 | 2 | 466 |
Displaying all predictions made by Michael Dickens. Filter by:
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R+L=J ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-13; known on 2019-03-13; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2019-03-13.
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I will get to class before the people walking. ( 99% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-10; known on 2014-03-11; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-10.
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I will know between 10 and 20 of the trick listed on this page: http://sahandsaba.com/thirty-python-language-features-and-tricks-you-may-not-know.html ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-09; known on 2014-03-09; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-09.
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The link I'm about to click on goes to TVTropes. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-04; known on 2014-03-05; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-04.
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The bill will be between $250 and $480. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-03; known on 2014-03-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-03.
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One of the three top comments on the thread I'm about to read will be “gluten free.” ( 80% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-02-25; known on 2014-02-25; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-02-25.
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I will pee for at least 60 seconds. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-02-24; known on 2014-02-25; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-02-24.
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Pizza-flavored Pringles contain milk ingredients. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-02-19; known on 2014-02-20; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-02-19.
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Before the end of 2014, at least ten more schools will adopt Meditation programs following the four at San Fransisco (http://tinyurl.com/sanmed) ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by platypus42 on 2014-02-14; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by platypus42 on 2020-08-09.
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Dogecoin's market cap will surpass Litecoin's during 2014 ( 45% confidence; 16 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2014-02-13; known on 2015-01-03; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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Google will have had the biggest market capitalization in the USA at some point before February 2019. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-11; known on 2019-02-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-03-17.
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By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ( 54% confidence; 42 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by ZLM on 2014-02-10; known on 2025-01-01; judged unknown by lavalamp on 2014-08-21.
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I am going to live for at least another 80 years ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Amélie_Roy on 2014-02-07; known on 2094-12-31.
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Before 2030, more than 35% of US-Americans will have no religious identity (not counting babies). ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-06; known on 2030-01-01.
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The speaker I'm listening to will bring up the fact that people fear public speaking more than death. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-02-03; known on 2014-02-04; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-02-03.
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I will get to class before the girl I passed. ( 98% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-02-03; known on 2014-02-04; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-02-03.
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I will do nothing serious this year about my amazing idea to revolutionize social media. ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-02-03; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by waveman on 2015-01-02.
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There are unique 50 wagers on this prediction by April 1st, 2014. ( 69% confidence; 62 wagers; 71 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-04-02; judged right by rickyrich98 on 2014-04-02.
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The next president or vice president who is not a white male will either be a hispanic man or a white woman. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbluphin on 2014-02-01; known on 2026-02-01.
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I will read 120 books in 2014. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Xammer on 2014-01-31; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Xammer on 2015-01-03.
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A portfolio with 10% of each GOOG, AMZN, TSLA, MSFT, EBAY, ORB, MMM, NVDA, DDD, and FMI will do better than the Dow Jones (not counting dividends) between February 1st 2014 and January 1st 2015 (excluded). ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mati on 2014-01-31; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Mati on 2015-01-05.
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I will intern at a financial firm this summer. ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-30; known on 2014-09-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-09-01.
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MIRI will continue operating in end of 2014. ( 92% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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CFAR will continue operating in end of 2014. ( 85% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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At least 1 LW post > 100 karma in 2014. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2015-01-01.
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2014 Less Wrong Survey will have < 20% female. ( 89% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by mad on 2015-01-06.
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2014 Less Wrong Survey will have > % female than 2013 Less Wrong Survey. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by mad on 2015-01-06.
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Slate Star Codex will get more hits in 2014 than in 2013. ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-01-10.
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Slate Star Codex will remain active until end of 2014. ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2015-01-10.
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In 2014, there is a mass shooting in USA killing > 10 people. ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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There is a terrorist attack in the USA killing > 100 people. ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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No nuclear weapon used in anger in 2014. ( 98% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2015-01-01.
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Obama will remain President of USA at end of 2014. ( 98% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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Israel does not get in a large-scale war (ie >100 Israeli deaths) with any Arab state. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-16.
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Egypt's government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2015-01-01.
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US government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt. ( 98% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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China's government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt. ( 69% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2015-01-01.
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North Korea's government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2015-01-01.
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Bitcoin will end the year higher than $1000. ( 67% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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I will have heard of at least one of the top 5 websites on this page: http://www.reddit.com/r/AskReddit/comments/1w6ixc/what_is_the_best_website_that_nobody_knows_about/ ( 90% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-26; known on 2014-01-27; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-26.
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I will not go on this website between January 1st 2040 and January 1st 2050. ( 96% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mati on 2014-01-26; known on 2050-01-01.
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I will still think Her is the best movie of 2014 by the end of 2014 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Kytael on 2014-01-24; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by Kytael on 2015-01-03.
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I will have an internship this summer. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-23; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-06-01.
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I will make an A in Improv. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-23; known on 2014-04-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-04-01.
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Princeton researchers: Facebook will lose 80% of its users by end of 2017 ( 15% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2014-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Mati on 2017-12-31.
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Clojure 1.6 will be released before 2015 ( 90% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-23; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-03-25.
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Market cap in USD of top ten altcoins as a percentage of bitcoin market cap in USD to grow by at least 10% in a year. ( 54% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2014-01-22; known on 2015-01-22; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-22.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky will remain visibly overweight at the end of 2014. ( 71% confidence; 20 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-21; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by waveman on 2015-01-02.
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Sherlock season 4 will be out by Christmas. ( 23% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by shadow1537 on 2014-01-20; known on 2014-12-25; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-25.
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Inflation rate of the dollar is 4.2% or higher for 2014. ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-15; known on 2015-03-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-12.
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I will finish reading On Lisp before 2015. ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-18; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2015-01-01.
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Star Trek Into Darkness will win Best Visual Effects. ( 15% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-16; known on 2014-03-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-03.
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The Hobbit will win Best Visual Effects. ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-16; known on 2014-03-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-03.
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The Wind Rises will win Best Animated Feature Film. ( 25% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-16; known on 2014-03-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-03.
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Frozen will win Best Animated Feature Film. ( 30% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-16; known on 2014-03-03; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-03.
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Sandra Bullock will win Best Actress. ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-16; known on 2014-03-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-03.
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Meryl Streep will win Best Actress. ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-16; known on 2014-03-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-03.
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Leonardo DiCaprio will win Best Actor. ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-16; known on 2014-03-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-03.
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Chiwetel Ejiofor will win Best Actor. ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-16; known on 2014-03-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-03.
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The Wolf of Wall Street will win Best Picture. ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-16; known on 2014-03-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-03.
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American Hustle will win Best Picture. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-16; known on 2014-03-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-03.
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Gravity will win Best Picture. ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-16; known on 2014-03-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-03.
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Her will win Best Picture. ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-16; known on 2014-03-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-03.
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12 Years a Slave will win Best Picture. ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-16; known on 2014-03-03; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-03.
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Satoshi nakamoto will be Time’s Person of the Year 2014. http://lightspeedindia.wordpress.com/2014/01/13/bitcoin-2014-top-10-predictions/ ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-16; known on 2015-06-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-03-19.
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When I get to class, there will be exactly 5 people there. ( 15% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-15; known on 2014-01-16; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-15.
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When I get to class, there will be at least 10 people there. ( 33% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-15; known on 2014-01-16; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-15.
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When I get to class, there will be at least 5 people there already. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-15; known on 2014-01-16; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-15.
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The website namemydaughter.com will prove to be viral marketing or to have some other kind of hidden motive. ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Roxolan on 2014-01-15; known on 2014-05-01; judged wrong by Roxolan on 2014-04-18.
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The total market cap of all non-bitcoin cryptocurrencies will beat Bitcoin's market cap at some point during the year. ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2014-01-15; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.
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The price of Bitcoin is likely to range between $4000-5000 by the end of 2014 – http://lightspeedindia.wordpress.com/2014/01/13/bitcoin-2014-top-10-predictions/ ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lavalamp on 2014-01-13; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2015-01-02.
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There will be less than 5 alt-coins (out of the 50+ in existence) that will survive 2014 – http://lightspeedindia.wordpress.com/2014/01/13/bitcoin-2014-top-10-predictions/ ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2014-01-13; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2015-01-02.
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In the article “8 Subconscious Mistakes Our Brains Make Every Day” that I'm about to read, I already know of at least 4 of the mistakes. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-06; known on 2014-01-07; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-06.
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Bitcoin hits $10000 at some point during 2014 (top exchange on http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/currency/USD.html) ( 16% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-03; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2015-01-01.
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I will make an A or higher in PWR. ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-03-25; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-30.
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I will make a B- or higher in CS110: Principles of Computer Systems. ( 92% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-03-25; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-30.
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I will make a B- or higher in CS 110: Principles of Computer Systems. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-09-07; known on 2014-01-01.
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A different cryptocurrency beats Bitcoin in market cap at some point during the year. ( 7% confidence; 31 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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At least 90% of the developed world (probably more like 98%) will be consuming In-Vitro meat (they'll have a more popular name by then) instead of conventional meat by 2070. ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by deanmullen2014 on 2013-12-31; known on 2070-01-01.
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My hat turns up at Rosanne's home ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Benquo on 2013-12-30; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by Benquo on 2014-01-01.
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A virtual reality headset (Oculus Rift-esque) sells more than a million units within the next 5 years. ( 85% confidence; 23 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by adbge on 2013-12-26; known on 2018-12-26; judged right by bendini on 2017-06-05.
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Microsoft will continue extended support of Windows XP past the April 8, 2014 deadline. ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Omid on 2013-12-23; known on 2014-04-09; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-04-10.
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By 2015-01-01, my parents will get a cat. ( 20% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-12-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2015-01-10.
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“Bitcoin will trade for under $10 a share by the first half of 2014.” — Mark T. Williams (http://www.businessinsider.com/williams-bitcoin-meltdown-10-2013-12) ( 5% confidence; 21 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2013-12-18; known on 2014-07-01; judged wrong by clemux on 2014-07-01.
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Clay Christensen: In 15 Years From Now Half of US Universities May Be in Bankruptcy ( 12% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-12-14; known on 2029-01-01.
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Chris Dixon: Amazon.com will be using bitcoins in 5 years (by 1/1/2019) ( 33% confidence; 26 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-12-13; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Nick Szabo is the real Satoshi Nakamoto ( 19% confidence; 30 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-12-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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iPhone 6's will have a larger screen than iPhone 5's. ( 55% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by eren on 2013-12-04; known on 2014-12-16; judged right by eren on 2014-09-20.
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Bitcoin goes below $600 in the next 30 days. ( 53% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by tedks on 2013-12-01; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by lavalamp on 2013-12-19.
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The 2013 Less Wrong Survey will show more than 60% of the participants to be men. ( 94% confidence; 31 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Mathias Zaman on 2013-12-01; known on 2014-01-31; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-01-19.
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I will not look at porn from now until January 1, 2015. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-06.
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I will not masturbate from now until January 1, 2015. ( 10% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-06.
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Takers of the LW survey/census will respond as left-handed more often than the base rate ( 65% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2013-11-27; known on 2014-01-12; judged wrong by Grognor on 2014-01-19.
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I will watch one or more episodes of Game of Thrones Season 4 before 2015 ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-25; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-05-12.
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Bitcoin price on 2014-01-01: 750-1000$ (mtgox prices) ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ArisKatsaris on 2014-01-01.
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Bitcoin price on 2014-01-01: 150-349$ (mtgox prices) ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ArisKatsaris on 2013-12-31.
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Bitcoin price on 2014-01-01: > 2000$ (mtgox prices) ( 6% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ArisKatsaris on 2013-12-31.
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Bitcoin price on 2014-01-01: 1000-2000$ (mtgox prices) ( 49% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ArisKatsaris on 2013-12-31.
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Bitcoin price on 2014-01-01: 550-749$ (mtgox prices) ( 19% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ArisKatsaris on 2014-01-01.
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Bitcoin price on 2014-01-01: 350-549$ (mtgox prices) ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ArisKatsaris on 2013-12-31.