Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
Displaying all predictions made by tswift. Filter by:
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Evidence of extraterrestrial life will be discovered by 2017. ( 11% confidence; 18 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-02; known on 2017-01-01.
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'I predict that the chance that a major episode of violence will break out in the next decade—a conflict with 100,000 deaths in a year, or a million deaths overall—is 9.7 percent' —Steven Pinker ( 51% confidence; 12 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-03; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-01-01.
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The “technological singularity” will be a major paradigm shift for humanity. ( 85% confidence; 10 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by steve1interstock on 2011-11-02; known on 2111-11-02; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-05.
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Holographic television will be widely available by 2021. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-02; known on 2021-11-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-11-01.