Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 67% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
Displaying all predictions made by phi. Filter by:
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The cost of one TFLOPS will be more than $0.9375 by 2029. ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-02; known on 2029-03-02.
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A restaurant will be serving cultured meat by 2021 ( 69% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lukefreeman on 2018-08-28; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by lukefreeman on 2021-01-05.
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Runaway methane release from permafrost and other sources to result in near extinction or imminent extinction of humanity by August 15, 2038 ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-08-02; known on 2038-08-15.
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OpenAI Five will win the upcoming benchmark match ( 67% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by enolan on 2018-07-24; known on 2018-08-05; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-08-05.
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SLS to be launched at least once or to be canceled outright by May 15, 2025 ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-07-05; known on 2025-05-16.
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Roe v. Wade and related precedents (e.g. Casey) effectively overturned by December 31, 2025. ( 42% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-06-29; known on 2026-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-18.