Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 100% | 100% | 75% | 75% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 2 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 18 |
Displaying all predictions made by Alti Camelus. Filter by:
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My FOIA request for the Szlackin report will result in me getting at least a redacted copy of the report before the end of 2017 ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2017-08-15; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2018-01-01.
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North Korea will launch (or attempt to launch) a ballistic missile (any range) before the end of August 2017 ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-14; known on 2017-09-05; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-08-26.
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Charlottesville car driver shown to be taking money from Soros ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-13; known on 2019-07-09; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-11.
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Trump does not refer to Charlottesville Car Attack on protesters as a “Terrorist Attack” or those who did it as “Terrorists” ( 64% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-12; known on 2017-10-17; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-17.
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Britain will leave the EU as a “soft Brexit”, keeping the four freedoms. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Alti Camelus on 2017-06-20; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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No GOP-candidate President elected by the Electoral College before 2033 ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-17; known on 2033-01-01.
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Donald Trump will not be impeached or resign in his first term ( 66% confidence; 33 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Bismagician on 2017-05-18; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by CaelumCodicem on 2019-12-19.
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Politics, US – Flynn fulfills the requirements of the subpoena from the Senate Intelligence Committee without challenging it in court before the end of the 19th of June 2017. ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-12; known on 2017-06-20; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-25.
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Tech – Arrests made in connection with the the WannaCry ransomware before the 19th of June 2017 ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-12; known on 2017-06-20; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-20.
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Emmanuel Macron will be elected the next President of France. ( 77% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-23; known on 2017-05-08; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-05-07.
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This year, Predictionbook will switch its scoring to be logarithmic ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Alti Camelus on 2017-03-13; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Dapple on 2018-01-24.
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There will be a Wikipedia page about Vipul Naik's paid editing of Wikipedia, as of April 1, 2018. ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-12; known on 2018-04-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2018-04-02.
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The labor force participation rate will increase above 66% at least once while Trump is on office ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-03-12; known on 2025-03-12.
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The United States will be at war by the end of the year ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Alti Camelus on 2017-03-12; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by ioannes on 2018-01-01.
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Vipul will get married before he dies ( 31% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-03-11; known on 3001-01-01.
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“Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.” ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2018-01-31; judged right by amadeu on 2019-04-30.
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Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state ( 0% confidence; 35 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-10; known on 2025-01-01.
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No terrorist attack in the in any First World country (Western Europe, US, Japan, Australia) will kill > 100 people in 2017 ( 60% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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PredictionBook fails to recognize the major, ongoing technical issues with its site and will not change the website for at least a year. ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-16; known on 2017-03-16; judged right by elephantower on 2017-03-21.