Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Tech, Google I/O 2017 – A Google Home/Google Wifi combined product is announced. ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-18; known on 2017-05-24; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-05-25.
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Tech, Google I/O 2017 – At least one new Pixel phone is announced. ( 65% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-18; known on 2017-05-24; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-05-25.
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Tech, Google I/O 2017 – A standalone VR headset sold by Google is announced. ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-18; known on 2017-05-24; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-05-25.
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Trump tweets about the stolen radioactive material in mexico ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-25; known on 2017-05-25; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-25.
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I will go to the gym 30 more times this semester. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by azax1 on 2017-02-14; known on 2017-05-25; judged wrong by azax1 on 2017-05-25.
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Within twenty (20) years there will be an option of listing related or similar predictions on the prediction page (of PredictionBook) by the predictor ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-10-07; known on 2036-10-07; judged right by kuudes on 2017-05-25.
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willow tree instrumental song ( 70% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-05-25; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-05-25.
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Tech, Google I/O 2017 – Google announces a release of the Fuschia operating system at Google I/O, with the release to happen within the next year. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-18; known on 2017-05-24; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-05-25.
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AlphaGo will win Match Two against Ke Jie ( 96% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-05-25; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-05-25.
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My relatives (whom I haven't met before) will misgender me over dinner tonight. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-05-25; judged wrong by Somni on 2017-05-25.
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BTC will exceed $2500 USD on Bitstamp by the end of May 2017 ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by sebnow on 2017-05-24; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-05-25.
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Alice will offer me an orange. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-05-23; known on 2017-05-23; judged wrong by Somni on 2017-05-25.
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I will graduate with a degree in any field other than economics from Washington University in St Louis ( 25% confidence )
Created by Isaac on 2013-05-09; known on 2017-05-09; judged wrong by Isaac on 2017-05-24.
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I will graduate from Washington University in St Louis with a degree in Economics in 2017 ( 75% confidence )
Created by Isaac on 2013-05-09; known on 2017-05-16; judged right by Isaac on 2017-05-24.
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c will livestream Mushroom 11 before May 24 ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-05-10; known on 2017-05-24; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-05-24.
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There will be a Wikipedia page about Vipul Naik's paid editing of Wikipedia, as of April 1, 2018. ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-12; known on 2018-04-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2018-04-02.
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We will have the new data layer and redux events in the data layer by the end of this sprint. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Jais Cheema on 2017-04-05; known on 2017-04-18; judged wrong by Jais Cheema on 2017-05-24.
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Kenji Matsumoto wins the 2017 Niagara Falls Scrabble Tournament (prediction recorded after tournament started but before looking at results). ( 18% confidence )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-05-20; known on 2017-05-23; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2017-05-24.
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Trump's first state visit will be to the UK. ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-01-31; judged wrong by technicalities on 2017-05-23.
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Mississippi State Rep Karl Oliver apologizes in some way for his lynching comment ( 80% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-05-22; known on 2017-11-22; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-05-23.
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Bitcoin hits 1M$ or equivalent / bitcoin in any market at any point before jan 1, 2018 (Such as VEF in localbitcoins) ( 92% confidence; 9 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-12; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-25.
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I will stay on the ketogenic diet for at least three weeks starting tomorrow, Monday 1 May. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Mike on 2017-04-30; known on 2017-05-22; judged wrong by Mike on 2017-05-21.
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bullock won lake county ( 60% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-05-20; known on 2017-05-20; judged right by elephantower on 2017-05-20.
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Politics, US, New Orleans – All three of the remaining Confederacy monuments will be removed before the end of 2017 ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-05-07; known on 2018-02-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-05-20.
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Y will ask Issa to do something for her during their meeting today ( 23% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-05-19; known on 2017-05-21; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-05-20.
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I will finish my dissertation before March 30, 2017 ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-05-19.
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Politics, US – Special Prosecutor appointed to investigate connections between the Trump Campaign and Russia by the 17th of June 2017. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-10; known on 2017-06-18; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-05-19.
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zip file has episode 385 in it ( 66% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-18; known on 2017-05-25; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-19.
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BTCUSD will exceed 2000 during May 2017 ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sjy on 2017-05-17; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by Nve on 2017-05-18.
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Jason Chaffetz resigns from congress ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-04-20; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-05-18.
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Unsongbook will have at least 100 but not more than 200 chapters and interludes when it is finished or has been abandoned for at least 1 year. ( 70% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-24; known on 2026-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-05-18.
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Unsongbook will have at least 50 but not more than 500 chapters and interludes when it is finished or has been abandoned for at least 1 year. ( 79% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-24; known on 2026-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2017-05-18.
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Last chapter of Unsong will be numbered 72 ( 94% confidence )
Created by kuudes on 2017-05-07; known on 2017-05-22; judged right by kuudes on 2017-05-18.
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Politics, Brazil – President Temer's pension reforms leave committee, having voted on amendments, to be subsequently considered by the Chamber of Deputies before the end of 2017-05-12. ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-07; known on 2017-05-13; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-05-18.
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NATO-Russia nuclear war following Richard Shirreff's timeline ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2017-05-17; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-17.
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President Trump will rescind Chelsea Manning's commutation before it takes effect on May 17, 2017 ( 12% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by atomicspacemann on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-05-18; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-05-17.
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Politics, US, New Orleans – At least two of the three remaining Confederacy monuments Landrieu has announced intent to remove are removed by the 20th of June 2017. ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-07; known on 2017-06-21; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-05-17.
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I will have > 10,000 lines of Elixir before 2018 ( 87% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-30; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-05-17.
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The nation source from which Trump leaked information about ISIS to Russia was either Israel or Jordan ( 85% confidence; 11 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-05-16; known on 2067-05-16; judged right by kuudes on 2017-05-16.
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Benfica will win the Portuguese Football Championship in the 2016/17 season ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jscc on 2017-01-06; known on 2017-05-16; judged right by jscc on 2017-05-16.
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Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-04-04; known on 2017-05-15; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-05-15.
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By 2019-12-31: Kendrick Lamar releases next studio album. A month after its first official release on some platform, its Metacritic score is strictly greater than that of S80. ( 84% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-04-04; known on 2017-05-15; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-05-15.
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By 2019-12-31: Kendrick Lamar releases next studio album. A month after its first official release on some platform, its Metacritic score is strictly greater than that of GKMC. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-04-04; known on 2017-05-15; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-05-15.
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Chelsea FC will win a Champions League place in 2016-2017 ( 68% confidence )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-07-13; known on 2017-05-14; judged right by Paul.David.Carr on 2017-05-15.
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cb95139af8cd20f1c3763ebfa7fd53e6 will come back safe and sound from her trip to america ( 96% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-13; known on 2017-05-15; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-14.
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Politics, US, New Orleans – At least one of the three remaining Confederacy monuments Landrieu has announced intent to remove is removed by the end of the 20th of June, 2017. ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-07; known on 2017-06-21; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-05-12.
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obamacare repealed in 6 months ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jal278 on 2016-11-10; known on 2017-05-10; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-05-11.
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At least one PlayStation-level data breach. ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2017-05-10.
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illidanstr will accept and complete the Death by Hormones Exam within two weeks. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-04-28; judged wrong by Somni on 2017-05-10.
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The number of unique commenters on this prediction will be less than 30 OR the number of unique accounts who add wagers will be less than 80. by May 8th 11.30 AM UTC. ( 79% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Sahil on 2017-05-05; known on 2017-05-08; judged right by danielfilan on 2017-05-09.