Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 58% | 64% | 77% | 85% | 94% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 24 | 33 | 44 | 41 | 53 | 2 | 197 |
Displaying all predictions made by John Smith. Filter by:
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Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election ( 95% confidence; 26 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-11-04; known on 2020-12-01; judged right by Deepak on 2020-12-15.
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There will be a shooting at a showing of Joker. ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JohnGreer on 2019-10-04; known on 2019-11-04; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-11-09.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2019-05-04). ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by John Smith on 2019-04-29; known on 2019-05-11; judged wrong by John Smith on 2019-05-12.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep this week (starting the night of 2019-04-22). ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by John Smith on 2019-04-22; known on 2019-04-29; judged wrong by John Smith on 2019-04-29.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep this week (starting the night of 2019-04-13). ( 6% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by John Smith on 2019-04-14; known on 2019-04-20; judged wrong by John Smith on 2019-04-22.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep this week (starting the night of 2019-04-06). ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by John Smith on 2019-04-06; known on 2019-04-13; judged wrong by John Smith on 2019-04-14.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep this week (starting the night of 2019-03-30). ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by John Smith on 2019-03-29; known on 2019-04-06; judged wrong by John Smith on 2019-04-06.
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Andrew Yang will win the Democratic nomination. ( 8% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by skateboard34 on 2019-03-25; known on 2020-07-20; judged wrong by skateboard34 on 2020-03-05.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep this week (starting the night of 2019-03-22). ( 7% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by John Smith on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-03-29; judged wrong by John Smith on 2019-03-29.
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The web page had different behavior before a recent code change. ( 75% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2019-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by John Smith on 2019-03-16.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep this week (starting the night of 2019-03-15). ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by John Smith on 2019-03-15; known on 2019-03-22; judged wrong by John Smith on 2019-03-22.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep this week (starting the night of 2019-03-08). ( 8% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by John Smith on 2019-03-09; known on 2019-03-15; judged wrong by John Smith on 2019-03-15.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep this week (starting the night of 2019-03-01). ( 10% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2019-03-01; known on 2019-03-08; judged wrong by John Smith on 2019-03-09.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep this week (starting the night of 2019-02-22). ( 8% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2019-02-23; known on 2019-03-01; judged wrong by John Smith on 2019-03-01.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2019-02-15). ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by John Smith on 2019-02-16; known on 2019-02-22; judged wrong by John Smith on 2019-02-23.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2019-02-08). ( 18% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2019-02-09; known on 2019-02-15; judged wrong by John Smith on 2019-02-16.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2019-02-01). ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by John Smith on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-02-08; judged wrong by John Smith on 2019-02-09.
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Tom Brady is under 40. ( 60% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2019-01-26; known on 2019-01-26; judged wrong by John Smith on 2019-01-26.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2019-01-25). ( 15% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2019-01-25; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by John Smith on 2019-02-02.
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[Politics] Trump will choose not to run for a second term in 2020. ( 14% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by KangaRookie on 2019-01-22; known on 2020-11-05; judged wrong by John Smith on 2020-11-04.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2019-01-18). ( 10% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2019-01-18; known on 2019-01-25; judged wrong by John Smith on 2019-01-25.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2019-01-11). ( 15% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2019-01-11; known on 2019-01-18; judged wrong by John Smith on 2019-01-18.
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The US government shutdown will end before April 1, 2019. ( 93% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by John Smith on 2019-01-05; known on 2019-04-01; judged right by amadeu on 2019-01-25.
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The US government shutdown will end before March 1, 2019. ( 78% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by John Smith on 2019-01-05; known on 2019-03-01; judged right by amadeu on 2019-01-25.
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The US government shutdown will end before February 1, 2019. ( 66% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by John Smith on 2019-01-05; known on 2019-02-01; judged right by amadeu on 2019-01-25.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2019-01-04). ( 15% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2019-01-04; known on 2019-01-11; judged wrong by John Smith on 2019-01-11.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2018-12-28). ( 33% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2018-12-28; known on 2019-01-04; judged wrong by John Smith on 2019-01-04.
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The B's will be at the meeting. ( 60% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2018-12-27; known on 2018-12-27; judged right by John Smith on 2018-12-27.
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The gift card belongs to my sister. ( 90% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2018-12-26; known on 2018-12-27; judged right by John Smith on 2018-12-27.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2018-12-21). ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by John Smith on 2018-12-19; known on 2018-12-28; judged wrong by John Smith on 2018-12-28.
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Tumblr will revert the decision to ban pornography (to take effect in Dec 17) in the next 3 months. ( 33% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jazzsolo on 2018-12-03; known on 2019-03-03; judged wrong by jazzsolo on 2019-03-04.
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I will successfully make it through “No Nut November” without masturbating. ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by John Smith on 2018-11-01; known on 2018-12-01; judged wrong by John Smith on 2018-11-11.
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I get at least a raise of at least 9%. ( 30% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2018-10-10; known on 2018-11-01; judged wrong by John Smith on 2018-10-19.
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Still at my current employer a year from now. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by John Smith on 2018-10-10; known on 2019-10-10; judged right by John Smith on 2019-10-10.
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Donald Trump will be reelected. ( 44% confidence; 22 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by alvastarr on 2018-07-26; known on 2020-11-05; judged wrong by avi on 2020-11-07.
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OpenAI Five will win the upcoming benchmark match ( 67% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by enolan on 2018-07-24; known on 2018-08-05; judged right by John Smith on 2018-08-05.
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Technology – The price of a bitcoin is over $10,000 at the end of 2018. ( 26% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
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I will get pinged for lunch next week (Monday-Thursday). ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by John Smith on 2018-04-20; known on 2018-04-26; judged wrong by John Smith on 2018-04-26.
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I will be in a romantic relationship with a woman whom I love and who loves me at some point between now and my 30th birthday. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by John Smith on 2018-04-10; known on 2023-10-10.
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Still no first kiss before my 30th birthday. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by John Smith on 2018-04-10; known on 2023-10-10.
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Donald Trump will lose the next election. ( 62% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-04-03; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by John Smith on 2020-11-07.
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Still no first kiss before my 25th birthday. ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by John Smith on 2018-04-02; known on 2018-10-10; judged right by John Smith on 2018-10-10.
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The investigation run by Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller is still ongoing by the end of 2018 (and is still run by Mueller, e.g., Mueller has not died, or been removed, or formally concluded his investigation). ( 67% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry will, at some point in the story or an epilogue, literally tear apart stars (for star lifting purposes perhaps), and this is what the “tear apart the very stars in heaven” phrase in the prophecy was referring to. ( 62% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-28; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by John Smith on 2021-01-31.
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On this year's Less Wrong survey, at least two people will have the same public and private keys (not considering capitalization). ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by John Smith on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-02-01.
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HP MoR: any superintelligent or FOOMing AGI/AI will appear as a character/device in the story ( 11% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-28; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by tedks on 2015-05-01.
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HP MoR: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains James Potter ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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I will be able to fix Dolphin from within Dolphin after installing it. ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by John Smith on 2014-12-14; known on 2014-12-14; judged right by John Smith on 2014-12-14.
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Our old hot sauce was not Durkee brand. ( 75% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2014-09-16; known on 2014-09-16; judged right by John Smith on 2014-09-16.
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Eliezer will state that he has finished writing HPMOR by the end of 2014. ( 33% confidence; 19 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Calien on 2014-08-19; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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My program will work as I expect it to this time. ( 60% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2014-06-08; known on 2014-06-08; judged right by John Smith on 2014-06-08.
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My program will work as I expect it to. ( 65% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2014-06-08; known on 2014-06-08; judged wrong by John Smith on 2014-06-08.
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NYRRB: I will keep my New Year's resolutions from now until the fall equinox. ( 50% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2014-06-01; known on 2014-09-23; judged wrong by John Smith on 2014-07-02.
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NYRRB: I will keep my New Year's resolutions from now until the fall equinox. ( 50% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2014-06-01; known on 2014-09-23; judged wrong by John Smith on 2014-06-01.
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NYRRB: I will keep my New Year's Resolutions until the summer solstice. ( 60% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2014-04-01; known on 2014-06-21; judged wrong by John Smith on 2014-06-01.
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NYRRB: I will keep all of my resolutions through the end of March. ( 70% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-04-01; judged right by John Smith on 2014-04-01.
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At least half of my showers this December will be cold. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by John Smith on 2014-02-13; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by John Smith on 2015-01-01.
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I will ask the girl I am seeing on friday to be my girlfriend by the end of the weekend. ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by reubensandwich on 2014-02-13; known on 2014-02-17; judged right by reubensandwich on 2014-02-16.
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I will not have a Valentine on Valentine's Day. ( 85% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2014-02-12; known on 2014-02-15; judged right by John Smith on 2014-02-15.
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I will be allowed to go to the IEEE conference by my parents. ( 50% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2014-02-04; known on 2014-02-06; judged right by John Smith on 2014-02-04.
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NYRRB: I will keep all of my resolutions through the end of February. ( 70% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2014-02-01; known on 2014-03-01; judged right by John Smith on 2014-03-01.
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Google will include Bitcoin in the list of currencies that you can automatically convert through the search bar in 2014. ( 39% confidence; 23 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tenoke on 2014-01-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by adbge on 2014-07-30.
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My next 10 showers will be cold showers. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by John Smith on 2014-01-23; known on 2014-02-14; judged right by John Smith on 2014-02-04.
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The Broncos will win the Super Bowl. ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by John Smith on 2014-01-20; known on 2014-02-03; judged wrong by lettergram on 2014-02-03.
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Gangnam Style (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bZkp7q19f0) will have 2 billion views by the end of 2014. ( 82% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by John Smith on 2014-01-20; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by dk on 2014-06-08.
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I won't end up going to the Alexis Ohanian event tomorrow ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EvanB on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-01-19; judged right by EvanB on 2014-01-19.
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NYRRB: I will keep all of my resolutions through the end of January. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by John Smith on 2014-01-16; known on 2014-02-01; judged right by John Smith on 2014-02-01.
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HPMoR will be fully completed by chapter 111. (That is to say, it will have no more than 111 chapters, including all the remaining arcs, and all epilogues.) ( 20% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by ygert on 2014-01-15; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by John Smith on 2015-03-14.
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I will read 12 books before 2015. ( 86% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-10; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-04-29.
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I will complete the Spanish skill tree on Duolingo before 2015. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-10; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-01-08.
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New Year's Resolutions Rebooted: I will keep all 3 of my rebooted resolutions for one whole week, from January 9 through January 15. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by John Smith on 2014-01-09; known on 2014-01-16; judged right by John Smith on 2014-01-16.
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Bitcoin hits $10000 at some point during 2014 (top exchange on http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/currency/USD.html) ( 16% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by John Smith on 2014-01-03; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2015-01-01.
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Green Bay will beat the San Francisco 49ers tomorrow. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by John Smith on 2014-01-04; known on 2014-01-06; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2014-01-08.
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I will correctly guess the result of every game in the 2014 NFL Postseason (based on guesses in the comments of this prediction). ( 1% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by John Smith on 2014-01-04; known on 2014-02-03; judged wrong by John Smith on 2014-01-05.
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[mredactedw] will get a 4.0 next semester. ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by John Smith on 2014-01-04; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by John Smith on 2014-05-24.
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I will get a 4.0 next semester. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by John Smith on 2014-01-04; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by John Smith on 2014-05-24.
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Dogecoin will be worth more than 1000 Satoshis ($0.00755000) by June 2014 (At 3 Jan 2014 bitcoin prices) ( 15% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2014-01-03; known on 2014-06-17; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2014-06-17.
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Dogecoin will be worth less than 40 Satoshis ($0.00036240) at June 2014. (At 3 Jan 2014 bitcoin prices) ( 50% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2014-01-03; known on 2014-06-17; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2014-06-17.
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BitCoin is valued at $1,000 within the month ( 50% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-02; known on 2014-02-01; judged right by Tuxedage on 2014-01-06.
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DSM-5 Question. ( 67% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2014-01-02; known on 2014-01-02; judged right by John Smith on 2014-01-02.
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My father will beat my mother in a game of Stratego. ( 75% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by John Smith on 2014-01-01.
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[mredacteds] will get an A in algorithms this semester. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by John Smith on 2013-10-11; known on 2014-01-27; judged wrong by John Smith on 2014-02-04.
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Buffalo Bills beat the Miami Dolphins yesterday. ( 80% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2013-12-23; known on 2013-12-23; judged right by John Smith on 2013-12-23.
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Microsoft will continue extended support of Windows XP past the April 8, 2014 deadline. ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Omid on 2013-12-23; known on 2014-04-09; judged wrong by John Smith on 2014-04-10.
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[redacted] will ask for a regrade on eir algorithms exam, and get at least 1 point back. ( 20% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2013-12-15; known on 2014-01-27; judged wrong by John Smith on 2014-02-04.
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“Bitcoin will trade for under $10 a share by the first half of 2014.” — Mark T. Williams (http://www.businessinsider.com/williams-bitcoin-meltdown-10-2013-12) ( 5% confidence; 21 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2013-12-18; known on 2014-07-01; judged wrong by clemux on 2014-07-01.
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I will be in the process of deleting my Facebook account before the end of 2013, and I will not use Facebook during 2014. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by John Smith on 2013-12-17; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by John Smith on 2014-10-12.
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On the HBWI? scale, the event will score in the interval [0,2.5], and I will reach Threshold 1 (see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/22504). ( 13% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2013-12-17; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by John Smith on 2013-12-17.
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On the HBWI? scale, the event will score in the interval (2.5,5], and I will reach Threshold 1 (see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/22504). ( 14% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2013-12-17; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by John Smith on 2013-12-17.
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On the HBWI? scale, the event will score in the interval (5,7.5], and I will reach Threshold 1 (see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/22504). ( 20% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2013-12-17; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by John Smith on 2013-12-17.
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On the HBWI? scale, the event will score in the interval (7.5,10], and I will reach Threshold 1 (see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/22504). ( 20% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2013-12-17; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by John Smith on 2013-12-17.
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On the HBWI? scale, the event will score in the interval (7.5,10], and I will not reach Threshold 1 (see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/22504). ( 7% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2013-12-17; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by John Smith on 2013-12-17.
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On the HBWI? scale, the event will score in the interval (5,7.5], and I will not reach Threshold 1 (see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/22504). ( 13% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2013-12-17; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by John Smith on 2013-12-17.
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On the HBWI? scale, the event will score in the interval (2.5,5], and I will not reach Threshold 1 (see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/22504). ( 10% confidence )
Created by John Smith on 2013-12-17; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by John Smith on 2013-12-17.
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Created by John Smith on 2013-12-17; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by John Smith on 2013-12-17.
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I will not place a bet on just-dice.com from now until 2015. ( 99% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by John Smith on 2013-12-14; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by John Smith on 2014-01-09.
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I will get exactly 86 points on the algorithms final. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by John Smith on 2013-12-14; known on 2013-12-25; judged wrong by John Smith on 2013-12-16.
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The 2013 Less Wrong Survey will show more than 60% of the participants to be men. ( 94% confidence; 31 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Mathias Zaman on 2013-12-01; known on 2014-01-31; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-01-19.
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I will not look at porn from now until January 1, 2015. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by John Smith on 2013-11-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by John Smith on 2014-01-06.
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I will not masturbate from now until January 1, 2015. ( 10% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by John Smith on 2013-11-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by John Smith on 2014-01-06.