Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 100% | 44% | 55% | 68% | 93% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 2 | 16 | 11 | 19 | 41 | 7 | 96 |
Displaying all predictions made by Afforess. Filter by:
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Bitcoin reaches $5000/BTC at some point on Coinbase before 2020 ( 64% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Afforess on 2017-08-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-13.
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Firefox browser share will be below 5.1% for December 2017 as reported by W3Counter ( 33% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2017-08-07; known on 2018-01-15; judged wrong by Afforess on 2018-01-01.
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Trump's Gallup approval be 39% or higher for August 1 – 3 (2017) ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by leo_gri on 2017-08-02; known on 2017-08-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-30.
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North Korea is invaded by the end of 2017 ( 7% confidence; 24 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-07-29; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-06-07.
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Jeff Sessions will still be Attorney General on September 1st. ( 74% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-07-28; known on 2017-09-01; judged right by sjy on 2017-09-01.
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Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft ( 7% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-27; known on 2024-12-31.
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Steve Bannon (Stephen Kevin Bannon) will not be the White House Chief Strategist before the end of 2017 ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-06-16; known on 2018-01-05; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-08-18.
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Trump tweeting frequency drops to < 1/week in the month after his inauguration (month of January 21st to February 21st) ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-19; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-01-31.
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Virtual Reality used by <1% of US+Can population ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2017-12-31.
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Mark Zuckerberg will run in the 2020 USA presidential elections. ( 9% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-14; known on 2019-08-16; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2019-08-16.
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Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee for President in 2016. ( 52% confidence; 88 wagers; 55 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-14; known on 2016-07-20; judged right by elephantower on 2016-07-16.
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David Cameron will resign as PM due to the Panama Papers scandal in the next two weeks. ( 5% confidence; 21 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2016-04-08; known on 2016-04-22; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-04-22.
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Greece will default on it's sovereign debt, or exit the Eurozone (possibly both) by the end of 2017 ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2016-04-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Afforess on 2018-01-01.
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Ted Cruz will be linked to a sex scandal before year end. ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Obama will successfully appoint Scalia's appointment. ( 43% confidence; 33 wagers; 22 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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The FBI will recommend an indictment of Hillary Clinton before the 2016 general election ( 28% confidence; 19 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-30; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-05.
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Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally. ( 10% confidence; 17 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-29; known on 2022-12-25.
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2016 Election is Clinton vs Rubio. ( 12% confidence; 22 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-01-27; known on 2016-10-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-10-01.
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Ubuntu 16.04 (or 16.03-5 if need be) released, with gcc 5, won't immediately be unusable colossal failure ( 83% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-24; known on 2016-07-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-04-21.
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Michael Bloomberg will announce that he is entering the 2016 Presidential race as an independent candidate ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-24; known on 2016-03-14; judged wrong by Afforess on 2016-03-08.
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USA real GDP growth rate for 2016 will be under 2.4% ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-20; known on 2016-12-25; judged right by Afforess on 2017-08-07.
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Donald Trump will win the first four primaries/caucuses (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada). ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-11; known on 2016-02-25; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2016-02-02.
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The Shanghai Composite will fall below 3000 before the end of the week ( 79% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-11; known on 2016-01-16; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-13.
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Malheur will no longer be occupied by armed insurgents by the end of the month. ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-01-08; known on 2016-01-31; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-02-11.
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Bitcoin will reach at least 600 USD for at least 24 hours on at least 2 major exchanges at some point in 2016 ( 47% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Afforess on 2016-01-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by mortehu on 2016-06-25.
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China's Shanghai Composite Index will be down 33+% YTD ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2016-01-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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100% IPV6 deployment by 2020. ( 27% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-07; known on 2020-12-25; judged wrong by Medea on 2021-01-08.
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2016 predictions: No US politicians will be assassinated. ( 92% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-12-31.
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2016 predictions: there will not be any terrorist attacks in the US that kill more than 40 people. ( 74% confidence; 22 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-12.
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By the end of 2020, more than half of the babies born that year are going to be genomically sequenced as soon as they're born. ( 4% confidence; 10 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-25; known on 2024-01-01.
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The New York times will report it confirmed that Craig Wright is Satoshi Nakamoto by 2016-12-31 ( 18% confidence; 13 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by solipsist on 2015-12-09; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by solipsist on 2016-12-31.
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The Federal Reserve will not hike the interest rate in 2015. ( 15% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2015-12-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Afforess on 2015-12-16.
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Boehner's resignation turns out to be part of a play to get Boehner on one of the GOP presidential tickets. ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-09-29; known on 2016-11-16; judged wrong by Afforess on 2016-10-06.
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All Ohio Kasich/Boehner ticket wins GOP nomination. ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-09-29; known on 2016-11-16; judged wrong by Afforess on 2016-10-06.
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The Force Awakens will reveal the Darth Darth Binks theory to be broadly correct. ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Calien on 2015-11-25; known on 2015-12-17; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-12-26.
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The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045. ( 25% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2015-11-24; known on 2045-01-01.
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Volkswagen shares will be traded above 140€ in November ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2015-12-01.
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Paul Ryan will become Speaker of the House of Representatives in 2015 ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2015-10-23; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Afforess on 2015-10-29.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky to have at least 1 child by 2020 ( 22% confidence; 31 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by sdr on 2015-10-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-01-01.
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Saudi Arabia and Turkey will be invaded by Russian forces before 2017. ( 9% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Znt on 2015-10-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Paul Ryan will choose to run for Speaker of the House ( 53% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2015-10-09; known on 2015-11-01; judged right by danielfilan on 2015-10-23.
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Bernie Sanders is the next US President elect ( 12% confidence; 30 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-09-03; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by Afforess on 2016-10-06.
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Right-leaning political parties, relative to the political parties currently in power, will control a greater number of majority positions of executive or (all) legislative branches of EU-member countries than at present. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2015-09-01; known on 2025-09-01.
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Created by Afforess on 2015-09-01; known on 2025-09-02.
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The Schengen Agreement will be terminated within 5 years. ( 26% confidence; 15 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by danpop on 2015-08-29; known on 2018-08-29; judged wrong by sdr on 2018-08-29.
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Universal basic income will be adopted in at least 50% of the G20 countries within 10 years ( 10% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by sflicht on 2015-08-07; known on 2025-08-08.
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The Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in September. ( 75% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-08-23; known on 2015-09-17; judged right by Afforess on 2015-09-17.
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Invest 97L will become at least a category 1 hurricane ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Afforess on 2015-08-21; known on 2015-09-07; judged wrong by Afforess on 2015-08-25.
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As of 2015-08-19, Eliezer Yudkowsky has solved the hard problem of consciousness. ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2015-08-20; known on 2045-08-20.
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Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050 ( 29% confidence; 14 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-19; known on 2051-01-01.
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California will experience a magnitude 6.0 earthquake or stronger in 2015 ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2015-08-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Afforess on 2016-01-07.
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Invest 96L will become at least a Category 1 hurricane ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2015-08-17; known on 2015-08-31; judged right by Afforess on 2015-08-20.
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Greece will have a Guaranteed Minimum Income or other type of basic income before end of 06/2017 for more than 90% of its working age population. ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2015-08-16; known on 2017-07-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-07-02.
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Armed conflict in space before 2050 ( 10% confidence; 8 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-16; known on 2050-01-01.
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Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license. ( 14% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by quanticle on 2015-08-14; known on 2025-08-15.
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Donald Trump to be the next elected President of the United Stated. ( 21% confidence; 53 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-10; known on 2016-11-12; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-09.
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By 2040, people will be able to eat as much as they'd like without getting fat ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-04; known on 2041-01-01.
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github.com will be hacked on a large scale (more than a few user accounts) before 2025-01-01 ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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Made-for-delivery restaurants like Sprig will account for at least 10% of restaurant purchases by 2025 (https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-future-of-food-delivery-1/answer/Adam-DAngelo) ( 39% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-01; known on 2026-01-01.
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There will NOT be a “World War III” within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's “allies” and NATO and/or western europe) ( 93% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Snorkelfarsan on 2015-07-31; known on 2025-07-01.
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The US Congress will override the Iran nuclear deal. ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-07-29; known on 2015-10-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-10-01.
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At least one major stock exchange will have 24/7 trading hours before the end of 2030 ( 63% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2015-07-23; known on 2030-12-31; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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Donald Trump to run as a third party candidate in the 2016 election. ( 11% confidence; 19 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-23; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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Syriza will not be part of the majority coalition after the next Greek election. ( 44% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by quanticle on 2015-07-15; known on 2019-01-20; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-09-24.
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Kurdistan will be a UN member by 2018. ( 30% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-07-12; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020 ( 83% confidence; 40 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Ellen Pao will no longer be CEO of Reddit by September 1, 2015 ( 30% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2015-07-09; known on 2015-09-01; judged right by gwern on 2015-07-10.
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Greece will return to the Drachma and abandon the Euro currency ( 40% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2015-07-05; known on 2016-07-05; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-05.
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Given a yes result on the Greek referendum, Greece exits the Eurozone ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by modulus on 2015-07-05; known on 2016-01-01.
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Greece reaches a deal with creditors including debt restructuring without the obligation to reduce public spending ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by modulus on 2015-07-05; known on 2015-08-01; judged wrong by Afforess on 2015-07-20.
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Given a no result on the Greek referendum, Greece exits the Eurozone ( 35% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by modulus on 2015-07-05; known on 2015-10-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-10-01.
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Greece will vote “no” on the Sunday referendum ( 62% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by modulus on 2015-07-05; known on 2015-07-06; judged right by modulus on 2015-07-05.
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France will default on its debt ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-02; known on 2015-12-27; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-12-27.
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UK will default on its debt. ( 55% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-02; known on 2015-12-27; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-12-27.
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Ukraine will default on its debt ( 74% confidence; 7 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-02; known on 2015-12-27; judged right by kuudes on 2015-10-06.
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Greece and Eurozone will have found a compromise that favors Greece, by friday 3rd July. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by aschberg on 2015-06-30; known on 2015-07-03; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-04.
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The United Kingdom's referendum will vote to stay in the European Union. ( 61% confidence; 40 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by sdr on 2015-06-27; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ejlflop on 2016-06-24.
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Among all US high-tech (IT, all computer {soft, hard}ware development) jobs, of the total hours worked in 2035, >=75% will be worked from home. ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sh on 2015-06-25; known on 2036-01-01.
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Improvements in telecommuting technology (VR, holograms, etc) will lead telecommuters to outnumber commuters in the USA ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Afforess on 2015-06-25; known on 2035-12-31.
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Among the top 10% highest-earning jobs (incl. self-employment) in the US, >=75% of the total hours worked will be worked from home. ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sh on 2015-06-25; known on 2035-06-01.
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Apple will buy Tesla by 2020 ( 17% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ira on 2015-06-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-01-02.
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Greece will default on it's sovereign debt, or exit the Eurozone (possibly both) ( 65% confidence; 19 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Afforess on 2015-11-12.
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Greece will not announce it’s leaving the Euro before 2016. ( 59% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2016-01-02.
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Domestic per capita water use in the US will increase from 2010 to 2015 as reported by the USGS ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-05-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by orthonormal on 2019-12-31.
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Greece, will still have the Euro at the end of 2016 ( 66% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Chri on 2015-01-26; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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Vladimir Putin will be president of Russia as of 1st January 2016 ( 91% confidence; 18 wagers )
Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by btrettel on 2016-01-01.
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Ebola will be considered endemic in a year. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2014-10-14; known on 2015-10-14; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-12.
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Browsers will replace Javascript with a VM as an standard way to run code. ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by wslh on 2013-05-28; known on 2023-05-28.
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Political Pirate movement becomes part of mainstream politics, causing major and concerete changes to governments and some industries, worldwide, before 2017 ( 26% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Jonii on 2009-10-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-12.