Unjudged Predictions
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He's (referring to Rurik) not gonna get one deliverable done. Chin said this on 10:41:04 PM IST ( 100% confidence )
Created by volis on 2018-09-14; known on 2018-11-16.
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Koback will use collection of state voter roles to coordinate voter suppression activities ( 51% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by atomicspaceman on 2017-08-12; known on 2018-11-10.
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BH will fail to add himself to his “publicly visible wall of shame for a five year period” over breaking a rental agreement. ( 95% confidence )
Created by seriouslykernelwtf on 2018-05-06; known on 2018-10-16.
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By 2016-10-01, the Prodigal Child Project will have made enough progress for more than 75 pastors to show significant support for incarceration reform (through, e.g., attending rallies, writing op-eds, giving sermons, or other actions) ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2018-10-01.
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Star-ALE will not participate in the Tokyo Olympics opening ceremony. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-02-12; known on 2018-10-01.
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Total number of free app downloads in all ecosystems 2017 is not published ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2018-10-01.
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DirecTV and Amdocs publicly sign another agreement extending cooperation between two companies, or one buys the other ( 45% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2018-09-25.
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The EEF Reciprocal Reading trial will conclude the program improves reading comprehension with an effect size of 0.12 (50% CI: 0-0.24) ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by davidoj on 2018-08-07; known on 2018-09-16.
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>1.561% of global energy use for 2017 will be solar according to IEA ( 53% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-31; known on 2018-09-01.
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TTC makes its goal of 8$M more from metropass users in 2017 than in 2016. ( 55% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2018-09-01.
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I am single ( 48% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-25; known on 2018-09-01.
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I believe that everyone my company is asking to verify I-9 forms is about to be laid off. Along with those forms they will be asked to sign an “employment at will” form which will allow the company to lay them off with no severance. ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by drolma on 2018-06-08; known on 2018-09-01.
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I will still be using the same physical new macbook pro that I just bought on August 20, 2018, contingent on still being in my school program ( 70% confidence )
Created by Porejide on 2014-08-20; known on 2018-08-20.
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Bharat's ranking in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business report would be at least 50 in 2018. ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-09; known on 2018-07-27.
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The ETL Daily – Monthly Metrics will crash on the 07/04 ( 70% confidence )
Created by malafp on 2018-07-03; known on 2018-07-04.
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League of Legends will be still be the most popular game in the world by 2018 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by arghzoo on 2014-08-06; known on 2018-06-25.
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more earthquakes than normal in cascadia region ( 51% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-26; known on 2018-06-16.
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Aaron – 1on1 – Uses the phrase “Over-Engineering” ( 80% confidence )
Created by zach.riddle on 2018-06-14; known on 2018-06-15.
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Craig S. Wright not only fails to verify himself by demonstrating possession of satoshi's private key (eg 174731), but sometime after may 2, 2017 year tries to claim the same thing without proof again in a public way ( 27% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-02; known on 2018-06-01.
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HLSGives generates 20 career 1FTW pledges ( 70% confidence )
Created by Mjreard on 2018-02-15; known on 2018-05-25.
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Rural electrification: 18,452 villages are to be provided electricity in Bharat under the Deen Dayal Upadhyay Gramin Jyoti Yojana by May 1, 2018. ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-07; known on 2018-05-02.
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Ubuntu 18.04 released, not totally unusable ( 87% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-09; known on 2018-05-01.
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I'm in an online forum where a technical analysis chart person is predicting LTC litecoin will hit 175 by 4/26/18. ( 51% confidence )
Created by DanMotorcycleGuy on 2018-04-22; known on 2018-04-26.
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I have an iron deficiency ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Vulture on 2014-01-20; known on 2018-04-22.
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greater than 600,000BTC worth of payments occur from mobile devices during 2017, whether on bitcoin or other payment system ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2018-04-01.
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In all his bank accounts combined, my friend Keyan will have $1,000,000 in total by the time he turns 30. ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Lissy on 2015-12-11; known on 2018-03-30.
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hui ( 70% confidence )
Created by bastak on 2018-03-29; known on 2018-03-30.
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Serious (personal) failure within the next few days. ( 95% confidence )
Created by OperaPhantom on 2018-03-13; known on 2018-03-16.
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I can trust my amore. ( 75% confidence )
Created by OperaPhantom on 2018-03-13; known on 2018-03-16.
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Effective assistance will not be granted in time or at all. ( 99% confidence )
Created by OperaPhantom on 2018-03-13; known on 2018-03-16.
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Tablet market will grow 5x in 5 years (424.9 million units by 2017) —NPD ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-09; known on 2018-03-01.
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“Russia to meet the New START Treaty central limits in accordance with the stipulated timeline of February 2018” ( 47% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-07; known on 2018-03-01.
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000000 takes longer than 3 hours to complete ( 50% confidence )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2018-02-22; known on 2018-02-23.
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The Dallas Cowboys will win a Super Bowl by 2018 ( 14% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by SalTnutZ1 on 2015-07-05; known on 2018-02-15.
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Umsatz für Fleischersatzprodukte in Deutschland für 2017 wird größer sein als der 2 Jahresdurchschnitt, i.e. der von 2015 und 2016 ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by MrBubu on 2017-05-10; known on 2018-01-31.
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The US will run a deficit for 2017 of over 300 billion, with a likely >300 billion deficit in following years. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by atomicspacemann on 2017-01-23; known on 2018-01-07.
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no reports using hashtag #NotInMyTbay after 6 months for at least one week. ( 65% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-30; known on 2018-01-05.
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I will not be able to sell on market referenced in claim 177878 ( 92% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-12; known on 2018-01-02.
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By 2017-12-31 Sun: I do a workout in which I measure my mass and in which I do five deadlift reps of [205kg or 2.25x my body mass, whichever is the greater] raw. ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-03-05; known on 2018-01-02.
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By or on 2017-12-31 Sun: Squat ATG 5×5 @ 1.75x bodyweight (measured immediately before the first set). Yes chalk, any shoes, no belt, no straps. ( 55% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk on 2017-06-11; known on 2018-01-01.
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Total LessWrong Google Analytics Sessions for 2017 will be higher than for 2016 ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-26; known on 2018-01-01.
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Construction & housing in the heart of “Grand Paris” project starts by 2017 ( 51% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-11; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: conditional on there being any live-action, it will be in 4.0. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-04; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 is not a conventional Eva, and has already been seen in 1.0 or 2.0 ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be created from the wreckage of Eva 02 and Eva 03 and will be two separate units linked to one pilot ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be created from the wreckage of Eva 02 and Eva 03 ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be Rei ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be Lilith ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will see combat but be quickly destroyed ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be destroyed or scrapped or reused before any combat ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.