Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 33% | 75% | 80% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 2 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 20 |
Displaying all predictions made by Rory O’Kane. Filter by:
-
I will be accepted for an interview at that type foundry, after having written, just for my application, a font previewing app with the tools they use. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Rory O’Kane on 2016-01-09; known on 2016-01-30.
-
There are at least 10 official HTTP codes in the 300s. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged wrong by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28.
-
At least 3 of the 6 people here would take the gum in the hypothetical situation about being late for a job interview when your breath smells bad and you stop at a convenience store where the clerk is missing. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged wrong by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28.
-
A jellyfish has zero neurons. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged wrong by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28.
-
In five minutes, I will think of at least five somewhat-useful ideas on how to improve the exercise we’re doing tonight. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged wrong by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28.
-
Ray has read at least five fanfiction stories in his life. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged right by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28.
-
Ray lives in New York. ( 98% confidence )
Created by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged right by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28.
-
When I ask Ray whether today was better than average for him, he will say yes. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged wrong by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28.
-
When I ask Ray whether he thinks it’s okay to lie to protect someone’s feelings, he will say it is. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged right by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28.
-
When I ask Ray whether he considered himself popular in high school, he will say he did not. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged wrong by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28.
-
When I ask Ray whether meetings that overrun their scheduled time bother him, he will say they do. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged right by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28.
-
In the month of November, I will make at least four predictions on this site. ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-12-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-12-02.
-
The Rust programming language will reach version 1.0.0 by April 4, 2015 (the first six-week cycle after the scheduled beta1). ( 67% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Rory O’Kane on 2015-01-13; known on 2015-04-04; judged wrong by Rory O’Kane on 2015-05-15.
-
Meat-eaters will outnumber all other categories combined (vegan, vegertarian, meat-reducer, near vegetarian) in effective-altruist survey. http://lesswrong.com/lw/k60/2014_survey_of_effective_altruists/ ( 62% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Patrick Brinich-Langlois on 2014-05-01; known on 2014-07-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.
-
Over 70% of the respondents to the effective-altruist survey will be male. http://lesswrong.com/lw/k60/2014_survey_of_effective_altruists/ ( 76% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Patrick Brinich-Langlois on 2014-05-01; known on 2014-07-01; judged right by etarletons on 2015-03-18.
-
The world will end on 21 December 2012. ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-03-17; known on 2012-12-22; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2012-12-22.