Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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I will still affirm simulation-theism in 2013. ( 65% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-26.
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I will be enrolled as a student @ ASU again before 2013. ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-26.
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I will be hired as a 'crime analyst' before 2013. ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-26.
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After the next Dutch General Election, the Prime Minister will be from the Labor Party. ( 30% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Leo on 2013-01-26.
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After the next Dutch General Election, the Prime Minister will be from the People's Party for Freedom. ( 30% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Leo on 2013-01-26.
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Mars rover SAM instrument discovers methane in Martian atmosphere. ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-20; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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NGE Rebuild: Rei & Shinji will exit EVA-01 in 3.0 as separate beings ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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NGE Rebuild: Rei & Shinji will exit EVA-01 in 3.0 as separate beings and the SDAT player will be with them in some respect ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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NGE Rebuild: In 3.0, Eva 02 will be nonoperational ( 25% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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NGE Rebuild: In 3.0, Eva 02 will be scrapped ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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NGE Rebuild: In 3.0, Asuka will have been promoted to major ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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NGE Rebuild: In 3.0, Asuka will have been promoted ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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NGE Rebuild: In 3.0, Asuka will not remember the Matsushiro incident of 2.0 ( 30% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will not be shown in 3.0 ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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Evangelion 3.0 will open with a scene that has “something to do with Asuka's mental journey from Bardy's contamination to waking up on the slab” ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-08; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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Rebuild of Evangelion 3.0: Asuka will pilot Eva unit-06; it will go to Terminal Dogma and Asuka will beg Shinji to kill her (as opposed to Kaworu) ( 15% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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NGE Rebuild: In 3.0, Eva 02 will be piloted at some point by Mari ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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NGE: The First Ancestral Race will reveal themselves and will come to Earth personally in 3.0 to punish Rei-Shinji/Shogoki for trespassing into their domain of power. ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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NGE Rebuild: In 3.0, Eva 02 will be operational & battle-ready, and used in battle against either Angels or another Eva ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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NGE Rebuild: In 3.0, Eva 02 will be operational & battle-ready ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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NGE Rebuild: In 3.0, Mari will attend school as a regular student ( 35% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari will not survive past the 50 minute mark in 3.0 ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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NGE Rebuild: 3.0 Asuka has no recollection of anything and will call herself “Asuka Langley Soryu” ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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NGE Rebuild: Rei & Shinji will remained merged in 3.0 and will look like Rei (dressed in the AU uniform, as seen in 3.0 preview) ( 10% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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NGE Rebuild: Rei & Shinji will remained merged in 3.0 ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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NGE Rebuild: Gendo and Fuyutsuki go to Jerusalem in 3.0 and there they use the Key of Nebuchadnezzar to unleash something that would either save the world or destroy it. ( 5% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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NGE Rebuild: Gendo and Fuyutsuki go to Jerusalem in 3.0 ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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NGE Rebuild: Gendo & Fuyutsuki are traveling in the Dead Sea in 3.0 ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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NGE Rebuild: Gendo will, in person, physically attack Shinji in 3.0 ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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NGE: Touji will pilot an Eva in 3.0 ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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NGE: Touji will be featured significantly in 3.0 ( 35% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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NGE Rebuild: In 3.0, Eva 02 will be under repairs at/during the beginning ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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Mars rover SAM instrument discovers live microorganisms in Martian soil. ( 11% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-20; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Samm on 2013-04-26.
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The Winter 2012 Singularity Institute fundraiser will max out its dollar-matching quota. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by DaFranker on 2012-12-06; known on 2013-01-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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Federal investigation of Chris Dodd and/or the MPAA for bribery before the end of this year. ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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Copyright is challenged in a US court as unconstitutional before 2013. The case is not dismissed without hearing. ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-08; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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Hamza Kashgari will live to see 2013. ( 40% confidence )
Created by roshni on 2012-03-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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The Bush tax cuts will be extended for under-100k single earners before they expire. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by banx on 2012-11-27; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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LessWrong: By 2013, date last edited shows up next to comments that have been edited. (Would foil this evil plan, for instance. http://bit.ly/w0lkyQ ) ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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Solar flare to harm life on Earth ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kish on 2012-01-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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There will be fewer than 64 new comics posted on http://hyperboleandahalf.blogspot.com between 1.6.2011 and 1.1.2013 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ZrCa on 2011-06-05; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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Chris Brown will be arrested for assault, domestic violence, or criminal damage before 2013. ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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Scientists will confirm discovery of Higgs Boson by end of 2012 ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-07; known on 2013-01-16; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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LSD microdosing experiment: pair 13: placebo then active? ( 60% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2013-01-25; known on 2013-01-26; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-25.
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The user rating of Community on IMDB will be less than 8.5 by the end of Season 4. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by onthestairs on 2012-10-02; known on 2013-01-13; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-01-24.
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My 23andme results will reveal I am 70th percentile Neanderthal or higher ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-01-11; known on 2013-03-11; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2013-01-24.
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My 23andme results will reveal I am 90th percentile Neanderthal or higher ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-01-11; known on 2013-03-11; judged wrong by ashrewdmint on 2013-01-24.
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Binyamin Netanyahu's coalition to win Jan 22 Israeli general election. ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by simplicio on 2013-01-21; known on 2013-01-23; judged right by simplicio on 2013-01-23.
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The Magic: the Gathering card “Dark Confidant” will be reprinted in Gatecrash. ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ygert on 2012-12-16; known on 2013-01-26; judged wrong by Roxolan on 2013-01-22.
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I will win the AI Box Experiment (Playing as an AI) scheduled on Sunday. ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13; known on 2013-01-21; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-20.