Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Australia will win the 2015 Rugby World Cup. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-10-26; known on 2015-11-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-10-31.
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Justen and I will dress up as Sirius and the Joker (Nolanverse) for Halloween. ( 34% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by from3004 on 2014-11-26; known on 2015-10-31; judged wrong by from3004 on 2015-10-31.
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SMR's first product will launch sometime between October 2014, and October, 2015 ( 70% confidence )
Created by MattG on 2014-09-16; known on 2015-10-31; judged wrong by MattG on 2015-10-31.
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Ash vs Evil Dead will run 2 or more seasons ( 70% confidence )
Created by silacoid on 2015-08-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by silacoid on 2015-10-31.
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I will complete at least 1 pomodoro after eating out with friends and before midnight. ( 20% confidence )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-29; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-10-29.
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Paul Ryan will become Speaker of the House of Representatives in 2015 ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2015-10-23; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Afforess on 2015-10-29.
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By 7pm tomorrow, it'll be possible to upload an image on the local Agora site. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Ray on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged right by Ray on 2015-10-28.
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I will have marked all assignments (except ones suspected of plagiarism) by noon Thursday. ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-10-26; known on 2015-10-29; judged right by danielfilan on 2015-10-28.
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There are at least 10 official HTTP codes in the 300s. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged wrong by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28.
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We probably won't be able to find the rat article with greater than 50% confidence. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Ray on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged wrong by Ray on 2015-10-28.
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More than one person will take the gum ( 25% confidence )
Created by Ray on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged right by Ray on 2015-10-28.
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At least 3 of the 6 people here would take the gum in the hypothetical situation about being late for a job interview when your breath smells bad and you stop at a convenience store where the clerk is missing. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged wrong by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28.
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A jellyfish has zero neurons. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged wrong by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28.
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I will have more than 12 non-useless ideas. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Ray on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged wrong by Ray on 2015-10-28.
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In five minutes, I will think of at least five somewhat-useful ideas on how to improve the exercise we’re doing tonight. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged wrong by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28.
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Ray has read at least five fanfiction stories in his life. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged right by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28.
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Ray lives in New York. ( 98% confidence )
Created by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged right by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28.
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Rory is not a fan of firefly. ( 55% confidence )
Created by Ray on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged right by Ray on 2015-10-28.
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When I ask Ray whether today was better than average for him, he will say yes. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged wrong by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28.
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Rory is annoyed when meetings go over ( 80% confidence )
Created by Ray on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged right by Ray on 2015-10-28.
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When I ask Ray whether he thinks it’s okay to lie to protect someone’s feelings, he will say it is. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged right by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28.
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When I ask Ray whether he considered himself popular in high school, he will say he did not. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged wrong by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28.
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When I ask Ray whether meetings that overrun their scheduled time bother him, he will say they do. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged right by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28.
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I will complete my expenses for the tax year before the end of October ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by taryneast on 2015-09-21; known on 2015-10-31; judged right by taryneast on 2015-10-28.
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I will complete my next 30-day pushup challenge inside of 35 days ( 99% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by taryneast on 2015-09-21; known on 2015-10-21; judged wrong by taryneast on 2015-10-28.
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Bharat's ranking in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business report would be at least 105, up from 142 last year. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-09; known on 2015-10-27; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-28.
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The @VegAssist Twitter bot will have at least 60 followers by the end of 2015. ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by akrasib on 2015-10-22; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by akrasib on 2015-10-27.
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Chris will officially incorporate a company (with or without Nami) by September 1st, 2015. ( 55% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-07-18; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2015-10-27.
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I will complete all the little home renovation tasks on my list before my roommate returns in October. ( 20% confidence )
Created by kallman on 2015-08-22; known on 2015-10-20; judged wrong by kallman on 2015-10-27.
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I will complete most of the rennovation tasks before my roommate returns in october (ie >75%) ( 75% confidence )
Created by kallman on 2015-08-22; known on 2015-10-20; judged right by kallman on 2015-10-27.
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We will know the elections results in Poland on Tuesday or earlier ( 81% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by argothiel on 2015-10-25; known on 2015-10-28; judged right by argothiel on 2015-10-26.
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Coalition for the Renewal of the Republic – Liberty and Hope will get to the Parliament during 2015 elections in Poland ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by argothiel on 2015-10-25; known on 2015-10-29; judged wrong by argothiel on 2015-10-26.
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Law and Justice party will win the 2015 elections in Poland ( 95% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by argothiel on 2015-10-25; known on 2015-10-29; judged right by argothiel on 2015-10-26.
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Lowest grade of the Math 101 test will be 13/50 ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-23; known on 2015-10-26; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-26.
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The average for the math 101 test on voting theory will be at least 40/50. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-23; known on 2015-10-26; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-26.
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The average for the 1 PM math 101 class will be higher than that for the 10 AM. ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-23; known on 2015-10-26; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-26.
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HPMoR: At least two parties at the battle of the Third Floor Corridor were present for reasons OTHER than Quirrel's influence on their actions. ( 47% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Faceh on 2015-02-16; known on 2015-03-14; judged right by Faceh on 2015-10-25.
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V will visit the TNS lecture. ( 5% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2015-07-20; known on 2015-10-25; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2015-10-25.
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“Five years from now on the web for free you’ll be able to find the best lectures in the world. It will be better than any single university.” —Bill Gates ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-07; known on 2015-08-06; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-30.
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“Five years from now on the web for free you’ll be able to find the best lectures in the world. It will be better than any single university.” —Bill Gates ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-07; known on 2015-08-06; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-30.
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The level of Austin, TX's Lake Travis will slip below 665.0 feet by the end of 2015. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2015-08-13; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by unexpectedEOF on 2015-10-24.
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Nicole Arbour will make a public apology for Dear Fat People in the next 6 weeks. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-09-12; known on 2015-10-24; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-24.
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I will have low levels of dandruff while continuing to take Zinc supplements over the next 3 months ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2015-06-18; known on 2015-10-01; judged wrong by jasticE on 2015-10-24.
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My opponent has the third Dominator Drone they need to win. ( 70% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2015-10-24; known on 2015-10-24; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2015-10-24.
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I will start a website (or blog) on cryonics before September 2015. ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2015-02-24; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by Mati on 2015-10-24.
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A will have set up stuk before September 2015. ( 70% confidence )
Created by adri on 2015-01-07; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by adri on 2015-10-23.
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My diabetic partner won't be hospitalized this week despite their intention. ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by marchdown on 2015-09-21; known on 2015-09-28; judged right by marchdown on 2015-10-23.
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FF: a prolonged series of predictions (and reflection on the predictions) will help separate things which can be predicted (and which it is useful to predict) from those which are immune to prediction. ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by zzkt on 2013-10-09; known on 2015-10-01; judged wrong by zzkt on 2015-10-23.
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L will pass AuD ( 70% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2015-07-21; known on 2015-08-21; judged right by ZeitPolizei on 2015-10-23.
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finish bot by friday 22h ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2015-10-07; known on 2015-10-09; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2015-10-23.