Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 60% | 54% | 64% | 65% | 88% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 5 | 28 | 33 | 26 | 24 | 0 | 116 |
Displaying all predictions made by timujin. Filter by:
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Kel'Thuzad to be released this year in Heroes of the Storm. ( 70% confidence )
Created by timujin on 2017-03-29; known on 2018-01-16; judged right by timujin on 2018-01-28.
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A guest character (not from a Blizzard universe) to be released in Heroes of the Storm within 5 years, conditional on the game still up by that time. ( 7% confidence )
Created by timujin on 2017-03-29; known on 2022-03-29; judged wrong by rlourie on 2022-04-28.
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A Blizzard Classic hero to be released this year in Heroes of the Storm. ( 40% confidence )
Created by timujin on 2017-03-29; known on 2018-01-16; judged wrong by timujin on 2018-01-16.
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dm.am release complete with database migration from dungeonmaster.ru this year ( 30% confidence )
Created by timujin on 2017-03-29; known on 2018-01-16; judged wrong by timujin on 2018-01-16.
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Caffeine will not be the primary stimulant (measured by daily users) ( 19% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2016-12-13; known on 2031-12-13.
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Independent of the next elected president of the United States, there will not exist a wall along the 1,954 mile border shared with Mexico within 8 years of inauguration. ( 74% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-13; known on 2025-01-20.
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Major (>100 death toll) terrorist attack in the US this year. ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2017-01-16.
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Any EU member state declares war against other EU member state during this prediction. (wars from archives don't count, has to be new declaration of war) ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers; 16 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-01.
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All three of us will get a passing grade on tomorrow's exam ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by timujin on 2016-01-14; known on 2016-01-15; judged wrong by timujin on 2016-01-16.
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China will fall into disorder and civil war by the end of 2017 ( 6% confidence; 21 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by chinawillfall on 2016-01-13; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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The Chinese economy will completely collapse by 2017. ( 7% confidence; 20 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by chinawillfall on 2016-01-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Computers will beat the best humans at Go before 2017 ( 54% confidence; 21 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Houshalter on 2016-01-11; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Houshalter on 2016-03-15.
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100% IPV6 deployment by 2020. ( 27% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-07; known on 2020-12-25; judged wrong by Medea on 2021-01-08.
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The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Russian citizenship. ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.
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The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship. ( 46% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.
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Donald Trump to be the next US President. ( 26% confidence; 73 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-30; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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Reddit will exist in a recognizably similar form to its current incarnation, as of December 31, 2019. ( 70% confidence; 16 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sflicht on 2015-12-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by sflicht on 2020-01-01.
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Winter Steam sale will have a discount of at least 20% on Fallout 4. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by timujin on 2015-11-11; known on 2016-02-03; judged wrong by timujin on 2016-01-07.
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By 2025, proven that there exist infinitely many primes p and q with |p-q| < 200. ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-30; known on 2025-01-01.
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Haruki Murakami will win the next Nobel Prize in Literature. ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-10-20; known on 2016-11-01; judged wrong by penten on 2016-10-14.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky to have at least 1 child by 2020 ( 22% confidence; 31 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by sdr on 2015-10-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-01-01.
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Them's Fightin' Herds will reach its funding goal. ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by timujin on 2015-10-02; known on 2015-10-22; judged right by timujin on 2015-10-19.
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In the wake of Alphabet, we'll see a boom and subsequent crash of google-related projects. ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kallman on 2015-08-22; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by timujin on 2018-01-16.
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We will be able to robustly search audio files by text by 2025 ( 78% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-16; known on 2026-01-01.
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Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license. ( 14% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by quanticle on 2015-08-14; known on 2025-08-15.
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World of Warcraft will be shut dow before 2023 ( 28% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by silacoid on 2015-08-05; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by drakino on 2023-01-01.
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Oil will account for a lower raw amount of energy consumption in 2030 than in 2020 ( 63% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-04; known on 2031-01-01.
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By 2040, people will be able to eat as much as they'd like without getting fat ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-04; known on 2041-01-01.
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We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040 ( 52% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-04; known on 2041-01-01.
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HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire) ( 56% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-04; known on 2041-01-01.
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Godel Escher Bach will be available as a free online eBook by 2025 (in the way the Feynman lectures are) ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-17; known on 2026-01-01.
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Volume of physical books sold in 2020 to be greater than that in 2015 ( 27% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-17; known on 2021-01-01.
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By 2030, there will be commercial and/or free applications/overlays that will present the user with lie/truth probabilities of a talking person – useful e.g. for politicians in TV debates. It could be video analysis, augmented reality overlays or somethin ( 45% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by silacoid on 2015-07-16; known on 2030-01-01.
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In the next 3 years, someone will use goodai.com's AI framework to build an AI that will be dangerous and/or powerful enough that the US government will acknowledge it as a major problem. ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by timujin on 2015-07-09; known on 2018-07-09; judged wrong by moyamo on 2018-08-12.
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Created by timujin on 2015-05-27; known on 2015-06-07; judged right by timujin on 2015-06-08.
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By, or around the time the next expansion for Hearthstone is released, Blizzard will fulfill at least one of the following four community's wishes (clarification in comments). ( 36% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by timujin on 2015-05-26; known on 2016-07-01; judged right by timujin on 2015-08-05.
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Superintelligence will be created within 30 years from 7th May 2015 ( 30% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by AlexLundborg on 2015-05-07; known on 2045-05-08.
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The /r/theButton will expire in a week ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by VoidChronos on 2015-04-25; known on 2015-05-02; judged wrong by timujin on 2015-05-02.
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The /r/theButton will expire in 2 weeks ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by VoidChronos on 2015-04-25; known on 2015-05-09; judged wrong by VoidChronos on 2015-05-09.
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Total World population will begin stagnating around the late 2040s after relatively weak growth throughout the next 20 years, with most of that growth coming out of Africa and South-East Asia ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by OferBaratz on 2015-04-22; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by timujin on 2015-04-27.
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By April 21, 2020, World War III will have broken out. ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-21; known on 2020-04-21; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-04-21.
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The Russian Federation will disintegrate in the next 15 years, defined by either the current amount of land broadly recognized as Russia reducing by 20% or a clear state of anarchy and general collapse. ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-19; known on 2030-01-01.
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Blizzard will release Hearthstone to the consoles this year. ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by VoidChronos on 2015-04-16; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by VoidChronos on 2016-01-01.
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Blizzard will release Hearthstone for Windows Phone by the end of this year ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by VoidChronos on 2015-04-16; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by timujin on 2016-01-07.
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Our game will be playable when it is supposed to be ready ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by timujin on 2015-04-14; known on 2015-06-16; judged right by timujin on 2015-06-08.
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By 2030, the consensus in the United States will be that 9/11 was an inside job with US government involvement. Consensus to be determined by at least 60% of the US believing it, or it to be widely accepted in some other fashion if the situation has broke ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-13; known on 2030-01-01.
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By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ( 11% confidence; 13 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-12; known on 2065-01-01.
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By the August 1st /r/TheButton button will expire ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by VoidChronos on 2015-04-09; known on 2015-08-01; judged right by timujin on 2015-06-08.
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Couple of months after Blackrock Mountain release, Hearthstone meta will not be extremely biased towards aggro decks. Added: meaning “noticably less aggro than GvG meta” ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by timujin on 2015-03-26; known on 2015-06-01; judged right by VoidChronos on 2015-05-26.
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“By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.” ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-25; known on 2033-03-25.
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HJPEV has access to Voldemort's Horcrux network, due to being sufficiently Tom Riddle. ( 56% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by linkhyrule5 on 2015-02-21; known on 2015-03-07; judged wrong by tedks on 2015-03-03.
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It will be clear by March 25,2015 that the Minsk ceasefire did not hold ( 56% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-13; known on 2015-03-26; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-03-27.
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Vladimir Putin will be president of Russia as of 1st January 2016 ( 91% confidence; 18 wagers )
Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by btrettel on 2016-01-01.
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My pal Max Misyura is an MBTI INTJ . ( 25% confidence )
Created by timujin on 2014-01-14; known on 2014-02-15; judged right by timujin on 2014-02-12.
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The 2013 Less Wrong Survey will show more than 60% of the participants to be men. ( 94% confidence; 31 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Mathias Zaman on 2013-12-01; known on 2014-01-31; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-01-19.