Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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ASOIAF: gur nezl bs gur qrnq oernpu gur jnyy ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-20; known on 2016-07-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-02.
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ASOIAF Zbgure bs qentbaf unf frk jvgu lnen terlwbl ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-20; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-02.
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Donald J Trump will pick Monica Lewinsky as his running mate. ( 3% confidence; 15 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-02; known on 2016-07-19; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-03.
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Donald J Trump will pick Monica Lewinsky as his running mate. ( 3% confidence; 15 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-02; known on 2016-07-19; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-03.
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Donald J Trump will pick Monica Lewinsky as his running mate. ( 3% confidence; 15 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-02; known on 2016-07-19; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-03.
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Contigent on the Brexit vote beeing >50% for UK leaving the EU, the Pound Sterling will have lost 25% of current (April 25) value within a week after the vote. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by brslvrsl on 2016-04-25; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-01.
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Oman Crude will trade at an average price of below $30 for the first 6 months of 2016. ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-08; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-02.
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Oman Crude will trade at an average price of below $30 for the first 6 months of 2016. ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-08; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-02.
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There are ground troops from one or more then EU member states that are at least 1000 persons strong on ground of what is currently Syria at least once before the end of prediction. ( 30% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2015-11-16; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-07-01.
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By July 1, 2016, Younes and Rowe's paper claiming to prove that NP is in BQP will not be widely accepted as correct. ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-23; known on 2016-07-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-07-01.
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Sweden declares war against Finland ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-01.
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Sweden declares war against Norway ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-01.
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Sweden declares war against Denmark ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-01.
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Sweden declares war against Iceland ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-01.
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The @VegAssist Twitter bot will be banned before July 2016. ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by akrasib on 2015-10-22; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-01.
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Library Genesis will operate through 2016-07-01 ( 67% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-13; known on 2016-07-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-01.
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Donald J Trump will pick Monica Lewinsky as his running mate. ( 3% confidence; 15 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-02; known on 2016-07-19; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-03.
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Bernie Sanders will drop out on or before June 30th ( 42% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-14; known on 2016-06-30; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2016-07-01.
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Sweden declares war against any member of Nordic Council ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-01.
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Sweden declares war against any EU member state ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-01.
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Any EU member state declares war against other EU member state during this prediction. (wars from archives don't count, has to be new declaration of war) ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers; 16 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-01.
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Conditional on Brexit, Boris Johnson will be the next British Prime Minister. ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Waring on 2016-02-22; known on 2017-06-01; judged wrong by Waring on 2016-06-30.
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R+L=J revealed in episode 10 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-06-20; known on 2016-06-27; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-06-30.
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R+L=J to be confirmed during Season 6 of Game of Thrones ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by BiasedCalibration on 2015-07-11; known on 2016-06-30; judged right by BiasedCalibration on 2016-06-30.
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Boris Johnson will be the next leader of the Conservative Party ( 50% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-24; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-06-30.
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Kim Jong-un was assassinated on or before 16 June 2016. ( 3% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-06-16; known on 2016-12-17; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-06-29.
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2016 predictions: I will have >100 new (resolved) predictions on PredictionBook. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-06-27.
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2016 predictions: Sam will post 5 or more blog posts. ( 75% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-06-27.
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2016 predictions: I will go to the emergency room, for myself or someone else. ( 15% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-06-27.
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2016 predictions: I will make >5 new drawings that I like enough to post in my Facebook album. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-06-27.
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LSH in season 6 ( 75% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-05-30; known on 2016-07-04; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2016-06-27.
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S06E10 ends the same way as the Dance with Dragons epilogue. ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-06-13; known on 2016-06-27; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2016-06-27.
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(Game of Thrones spoilers) Prefrv oheaf qbja Xvat'f Ynaqvat va frnfba 6 be 7 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-06-26; known on 2017-06-26; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2016-06-27.
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CLEGANEBOWL ( 54% confidence; 8 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-05-09; known on 2016-07-04; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-06-27.
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SPOILER GAME OF THRONES ASOIAF. Pbaqvgvbany ba E+Y=W orvat erirnyrq ba F6R10, gur raqvat fprar jvyy or bs vg orvat erirnyrq. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-22; known on 2016-06-29; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-06-27.
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Arya successfully assassinated by the Faceless Men in season 6. ( 17% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2016-05-30; known on 2016-06-27; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-06-27.
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EW will respond to the message within one month ( 7% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2016-06-04; known on 2016-07-04; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-06-26.
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I will win the Euros sweepstake at work. ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-09; known on 2016-07-10; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-06-25.
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Bernie Sanders endorses Hillary Clinton for President ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-06-08; known on 2016-11-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-07-28.
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Assassination Classroom: Kerosensei will be revealed to be ill or dying (target date a year from the start) ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-11-08; known on 2015-11-08; judged right by drethelin on 2016-06-25.
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Brexit: UK will vote to leave the EU in the referendum. ( 39% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-11; known on 2017-11-25; judged right by mortehu on 2016-06-25.
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Bitcoin will reach at least 600 USD for at least 24 hours on at least 2 major exchanges at some point in 2016 ( 47% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Afforess on 2016-01-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by mortehu on 2016-06-25.
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Sanders endorses Clinton before the democratic convention ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-06-24; known on 2016-07-25; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-25.
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Dilma Rousseff will be president of Brazil until 2018 ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by daniel74f on 2016-03-20; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by jesseh on 2016-11-10.
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Bernie Sanders endorses Hillary Clinton for President ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-06-08; known on 2016-11-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-07-28.
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Sanders endorses Clinton before the democratic convention ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-06-24; known on 2016-07-25; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-25.
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Any EU member state declares war against other EU member state during this prediction. (wars from archives don't count, has to be new declaration of war) ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers; 16 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-01.
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Any EU member state declares war against other EU member state during this prediction. (wars from archives don't count, has to be new declaration of war) ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers; 16 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-01.
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Donald J Trump will pick Monica Lewinsky as his running mate. ( 3% confidence; 15 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-02; known on 2016-07-19; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-03.
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Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee for President in 2016. ( 52% confidence; 88 wagers; 55 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-14; known on 2016-07-20; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-13.