Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 17 |
Displaying all predictions made by . Filter by:
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Eliezer will publish at least one HPMOR chapter this month. ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ygert on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-04-01; judged wrong by on 2014-04-01.
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Scotland votes 'yes' for independence. ( 38% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-31; known on 2014-09-19; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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HP MoR: At some point, Harry (or someone) will break a time-turner to get out of a sticky situation. ( 46% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by 75th on 2014-01-29; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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MIRI will continue operating in end of 2014. ( 92% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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CFAR will continue operating in end of 2014. ( 85% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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HPMOR: final chapter to be published before Dec 1st of 2014 ( 28% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by sdr on 2014-01-24; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by on 2014-12-01.
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Apple will announce Iphone 6 by the end of February. ( 23% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Jedijuggler on 2014-01-23; known on 2014-02-28; judged wrong by Jedijuggler on 2014-02-28.
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HPMoR will be fully completed by chapter 111. (That is to say, it will have no more than 111 chapters, including all the remaining arcs, and all epilogues.) ( 20% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by ygert on 2014-01-15; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-03-14.
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iPhone 6's will have a larger screen than iPhone 5's. ( 55% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by eren on 2013-12-04; known on 2014-12-16; judged right by eren on 2014-09-20.
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Tim Cook will be ousted as Apple CEO within the next 2 years. ( 31% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by andrevan on 2013-04-27; known on 2015-04-30; judged wrong by krazemon on 2015-04-30.
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Apple's iWatch will come out before iTV ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-12-28; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2015-01-11.
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I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years. ( 82% confidence; 15 wagers )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-29; known on 2022-09-29; judged right by lukeprog on 2022-09-29.
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Yvain will have more LessWrong karma than me in 5 years. ( 86% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2017-09-04; judged right by lukeprog on 2017-09-04.
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After the next German Federal Election, the Chancellor will be from the Christian Democrat Party. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-13; known on 2014-02-01; judged right by on 2014-02-01.
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After the next German Federal Election, the Chancellor will be from the Social Democrat Party. ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-13; known on 2014-02-01; judged wrong by on 2014-02-01.
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Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030 ( 84% confidence; 27 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky's book on rationality will be published within 3 years. ( 46% confidence; 25 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2014-10-04; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-10-04.