Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 43% | 63% | 71% | 83% | 93% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 373 | 575 | 496 | 412 | 690 | 110 | 2656 |
Displaying all predictions made by gwern. Filter by:
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The world will not end on December 2012. ( 99% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by puya on 2011-03-18; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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The international media will not mention anything about Japan's Earthquake on next Monday ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by wael on 2011-03-17; known on 2011-03-22; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-22.
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Australia will no longer be part of the Commonwealth by 2020 ( 19% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by DavidPercival on 2011-03-17; known on 2020-01-16; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-17.
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Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020. ( 12% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2020-01-01.
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Mad Max 4 will be released by Christmas 2014 ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-14; known on 2014-12-25; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-25.
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“By Dec 31, 2013 the total volume of payments denominated in Facebook Credits (or any replacement introduced by Facebook) will meet or exceed $16 billion in a three month period.” —Shamir Karkal ( 10% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-03-12; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-12-31.
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User:Clippy will donate 50k to SIAI and User:Kevin will create 10^20kg of paperclips. ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-03-10; known on 2060-01-01.
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Yoshiyuki Sadamoto's Evangelion manga will be finished sometime in 2014 ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-03-03; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2015-01-01.
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Yoshiyuki Sadamoto's Evangelion manga will be finished sometime in 2013 ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-03-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2014-01-02.
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Yoshiyuki Sadamoto's Evangelion manga will be finished sometime in 2012 ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-03-03; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Yoshiyuki Sadamoto's Evangelion manga will be finished sometime in 2011 ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-03-03; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-03.
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Yoshiyuki Sadamoto will release >=9 stages of the Evangelion manga in 2011 ( 4% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-03-02; known on 2012-01-10; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.
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Yoshiyuki Sadamoto will release 5-8 stages of the Evangelion manga in 2011 ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-03-02; known on 2012-01-10; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.
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Yoshiyuki Sadamoto will release 3-5 stages of the Evangelion manga in 2011 ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-03-02; known on 2012-01-10; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.
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Yoshiyuki Sadamoto will release 0-2 stages of the Evangelion manga in 2011 ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-03-02; known on 2012-01-10; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.
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Initial shipments of iPad 2 will have a display that emits circularly polarized light ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-03-01; known on 2011-04-03; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-04-05.
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'As for [Korean] reunification, I see it in the next five years.' —B.R. Myers ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-26; known on 2016-02-23; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-23.
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'bitcoins will be unobtainable or obtainable for less than 1 cents (2010 dollars)/btc on 24 February 2021' —ivan ( 45% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-24; known on 2021-02-25; judged wrong by gwern on 2021-02-25.
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http://www.longbets.org/601 will be a broken link in 11 years —Jeremy Keith ( 13% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-19; known on 2022-02-18; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-18.
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'1000 dollars per Bitcoin by the end of the year.' —Bruce Wagner ( 4% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-17; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
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'The FCC’s recently-announced network neutrality rules will continue to attract criticism from both ends of the political spectrum, and will be the subject of critical hearings in the Republican House, but neither Congress nor the courts will overturn the ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-14; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-10.
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'ICANN still will not have introduced new generic TLDs.' —FtT ( 70% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-14; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-11.
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'A distributed naming system for Web/broadcast content will gain substantial mindshare and measurable US usage after the trifecta of attacks on Wikileaks DNS, COICA, and further attacks on privacy-preserving or anonymous registration in the ICANN-sponsore ( 15% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-14; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-02.
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'Multiple Wikileaks alternatives will pop up, and pundits will start to realize that mass leaks are enabled by technology trends, not just by one freaky Australian dude.' —FtT ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-14; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-14.
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'The market for Internet set-top boxes like Google TV and Apple TV will continue to be chaotic throughout 2011, with no single device taking a decisive market share lead. The big winners will be online services like Netflix, Hulu, and Pandora that work wi ( 75% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-14; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-08-28.
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'At year's end, the district court will still not have issued a final judgment on the Google Book Search settlement.' —FtT ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-14; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-14.
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'However, Android's gains will mostly be at the low end of the market; the iPhone will continue to outsell any single Android smartphone model by a wide margin.' —FtT ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-14; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-08-28.
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'The seemingly N^2 patent lawsuits among all the major smartphone players will be resolved through a grand cross-licensing bargain, cut in a dark, smoky room, whose terms will only be revealed through some congratulatory emails that leak to the press. Non ( 30% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-14; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-01.
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“Congress will pass an electronic privacy bill along the lines of the principles set out by the Digital Due Process Coalition.” —FfT ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-13; known on 2012-02-13; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-13.
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“Copyright and patent issues will continue to be stalemated in Congress, with no major legislation on either subject.” —FfT ( 75% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-13; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-08-28.
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PD will have 50 or more paid trucks on the system before the end of 2011. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Matt on 2011-02-11; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Matt on 2012-01-30.
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80% of my students will sign up to prediction book and make two or more predictions by the end of March ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-02-11; known on 2011-04-01; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2011-04-16.
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Mubarak will cease to be Egypt's President by 2012. ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-02-11.
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“The U.S Department of Transportation Bureau of Transportation Statistics (www.bts.gov) will report a lower number of total highway vehicle miles traveled in 2010 than in 2005.” ( 42% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2012-01-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-05.
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Toy Story 3 will win 2011 Best Animated Oscar. —John Scalzi ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-27; known on 2011-02-27; judged right by gwern on 2011-02-28.
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Amy Adams will win 2011 Best Supporting Actress Oscar. —John Scalzi ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-27; known on 2011-02-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-02-28.
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Christian Bale will win 2011 Supporting Actor Oscar —John Scalzi ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-27; known on 2011-02-27; judged right by gwern on 2011-02-28.
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Natalie Portman will win 2011 Best Actress Oscar —John Scalzi ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-27; known on 2011-02-27; judged right by gwern on 2011-02-28.
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Colin Firth will win 2011 Best Actor Oscar. —John Scalzi ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-27; known on 2011-02-27; judged right by gwern on 2011-02-28.
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David Fincher will win 2011 Best Director Oscar —John Scalzi ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-27; known on 2011-02-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-02-28.
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The King's Speech will win 2011 Best Picture Oscar —Scalzi ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-27; known on 2011-02-27; judged right by gwern on 2011-02-28.
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“By January 21, 2016, Facebook will not have the largest market share of social network users who log in at least once per day.” —John Feminella ( 47% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-25; known on 2016-01-21; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-21.
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4G standard finalized and official by 2014. ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-25; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2014-01-02.
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Chocolate a rare luxury by 2032. ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-25; known on 2032-01-01.
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Wooly mammoth resurrected by 2016. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-25; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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EU to dissolve by 2040. ( 39% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-25; known on 2040-01-01.
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Gotthard Base Tunnel completed by 2018. ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-25; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-01.
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Google will kill Google Knol by 2020. ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-11-23.
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Summer Wars will be nominated for the 2011 Best Animated Feature Oscar. ( 25% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-24; known on 2011-02-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-25.
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A significant portion of the plot of Kore wa Zombie Desu ka? will be revealed to be a “Dying Dream.” ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-01-22; known on 2011-07-18; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-05-08.
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A team will win the Google Lunar X PRIZE grand prize before the end of 2015 ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-01-21; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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“By 2050, less than 20% of the United States will attend church on a regular basis (at least 3 times a month)” —Alex M ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-19; known on 2050-01-01.
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The Notenki Memoirs will be available as an official commercial ebook in 2011. ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-18; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.
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“bre Pettis is profiled in the New Yorker.” —Joris Peels ( 5% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-16; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-02.
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'3D printed products will win at least two Red Dot Design Awards in 2011' —Joris Peels ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-16; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.
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'Microsoft buys Dassault Systemes in 2011.' —Joris Peels ( 5% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-16; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-02.
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'Adobe will buy Autodesk in 2011.' —Joris Peels ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-16; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-02.
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'3D Systems will launch a 3D printing service for consumers in 2011.' —Joris Peels ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-16; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.
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'A designer will have revenues of over one million US dollars with a single 3D printed product in 2011.' —Joris Peels ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-16; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.
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'Bre Pettis will appear on the cover of Bloomberg Businessweek magazine in 2011.' —Joris Peels ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-16; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-02.
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A Nobel prize in Physics will be awarded for unifying general relativity with quantum theory, with experimental evidence to back it up, and it won't be a string theory. ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by scav on 2011-01-11; known on 2020-10-31.
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Average daily global oil production (crude+condensate according to EIA figures) will not exceed 75 million barrels/day in any month of 2011 ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by scav on 2011-01-11; known on 2012-01-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-05.
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'Despite media hysterics as to its imminent demise the current coalition of parties in government in Australia will remain in power. (70%)' —luminosity ( 70% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-02.
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'Continuing riots in major European cities over the imposition of austerity measures: 80%.' —Skatche ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.
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GRRM dies before finishing A Song of Ice and Fire ( 49% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2040-01-01.
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'I get a “real job”: 1%' —CronoDAS ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2012-01-01.
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'I qualify for the Magic Pro Tour: 1%' —CronoDAS ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2012-01-01.
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'The fifth book in the “A Song of Ice and Fire” series will be published: 5%' —CronoDAS ( 5% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2011-07-24.
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'“Core inflation” of the U.S. dollar (which ignores food and energy prices) shall remain below 2.0%: 80%' —CronoDAS ( 75% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-10.
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'The unemployment rate in the United States will continue to be above 8%: 90%' —CronoDAS ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-31.
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Jared Loughner will be reported to be a registered Republican or Conservative, or will be reported to have attended a Tea Party event/rally ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-08; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-02-03.
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'Wind power will provide more actual electricity than nuclear power by 2021, 80%' —taw ( 34% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
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'Kim Jong Il steps down or dies this year' —scav ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-19.
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'Oil price will go over $100/barrel at some time this year' —scav ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by scav on 2011-03-03.
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'In 2011, a new law will be proposed in some jurisdiction which specifically: Protects cryonics patients.' —icebrand ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-01-01.
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'In 2011, a new law will be proposed in some jurisdiction which specifically: Restricts cryonics activity.' —icebrand ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
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'the first flight of SpaceX's Falcon 1e rocket' —Sketerpot ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-14.
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'SpaceX will successfully complete orbit-matching and docking with the International Space Station' —Sketerpot ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
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'There will be a second season of High School of the Dead' —Sketerpot ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.
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'75% probability of [eyewear computing] being mainstream, or at least not unusual, by 2020.' —orangecat ( 36% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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'The rate of inflation of U.S. dollars will rise.' —Costanza ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-10.
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The price of gold will fall in real terms. —Costanza ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-10.
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Apple buys Time Warner Cable in 2011 —Robert X. Cringeley ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.
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'the United States has a historically hot summer 2011.' —orthonormal ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.
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'Clashes between North Korea and South Korea will result in fatalities' —JoshuaZ ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
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'At least one head pastor of a Protestant megachurch in the US will be found to be engaging in homosexual activity. For purposes of this prediction “megachurch” means a church with regular attendance of 3000 people at Sunday services.' —JoshuaZ ( 32% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
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'Ryan Williams's recent bound on ACC circuits of NEXP will be tightened' —JoshuaZ ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
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'The Riemann Hypothesis will not be proven [in ZFC]' —JoshuaZ ( 97% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
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'The removal of DADT by the US military will result in fewer than 300 soldiers leaving the military in protest.' —JoshuaZ ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-08.
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'General AI will not be made in 2011.' —JoshuaZ ( 97% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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'the next Mayor of Chicago is Rahm Emanuel' —SarahC ( 86% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2011-02-23; judged right by gwern on 2011-02-23.
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The US Federal Reserve is not audited by the US government in 2011. —Kevin ( 84% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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'1.8-inch and 3.5-inch [hard] disk drives will die' and 2.5 inch drives thrive in 2011 —Robert X. Cringely ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-02.
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Yahoo will spin off/sell Flickr in 2011. —Robert X. Cringely ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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Yahoo will sell its Yahoo Japan shares in 2011. —Robert X. Cringely ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.
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Yahoo will sell its Chinese assets in 2011. —Robert X. Cringely ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.
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CEO Steve Ballmer will not leave Microsoft's CEOship in 2011. —Robert X. Cringely ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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katla volcano will not erupt in 2011 ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by scav on 2011-01-05; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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Facebook will be less visitors in 2011 ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Laus_CB on 2011-01-04; known on 2011-11-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-01.
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US CBO: health spending >=49% of GDP in 2082 ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2083-01-01.