Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 64% | 60% | 63% | 81% | 92% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 14 | 42 | 43 | 37 | 99 | 12 | 247 |
Displaying all predictions made by Nic_Smith. Filter by:
-
I will have a presentation on Thursday. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-26; known on 2011-04-28; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-28.
-
The string cheese that I left in the TA office is still there. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-16; known on 2011-04-17; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-17.
-
I will not visit Fortuna, CA overnight or longer in the next 5 years. ( 99% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-15; known on 2016-04-15; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2016-04-16.
-
My scheduler, Sparking Now, completed to a usable level this year. ( 30% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-12; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2012-01-01.
-
Northern hemisphere will be frozen into ice age by 2012 ( 5% confidence; 19 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Ye on 2011-04-10; known on 2012-12-12; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-12.
-
MercMob not in operation or has less than 100 open mobs 5 years from now. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-08; known on 2016-04-08; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2016-04-08.
-
Bush will commit suicide by the next 3 years. ( 4% confidence; 21 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by puya on 2011-04-06; known on 2014-08-09; judged wrong by clemux on 2014-08-09.
-
I will have a PHP script to parse STATA summary stats today. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-27; known on 2011-03-28; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-27.
-
I will have a PHP script to parse STATA summary stats by 11pm. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-27; known on 2011-03-28; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-27.
-
I will have a PHP script to parse STATA summary stats by 10pm. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-27; known on 2011-03-28; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-27.
-
I will have a PHP script to parse STATA summary stats by 9pm. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-27; known on 2011-03-28; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-27.
-
I will have a PHP script to parse STATA summary stats by 8pm. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-27; known on 2011-03-28; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-27.
-
I will have a PHP script to parse STATA summary stats by 7pm. ( 12% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-27; known on 2011-03-28; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-27.
-
I will have a PHP script to parse STATA summary stats by 6pm. ( 10% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-27; known on 2011-03-28; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-27.
-
I will have a PHP script to parse and reformat STATA summary stats by 5pm. ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-27; known on 2011-03-28; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-27.
-
Time to McDonald's by kickscooter: 10 minutes +/-5 ( 75% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-22; known on 2011-03-23; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-22.
-
Time to McDonald's by kickscooter: 10 minutes +/-2 ( 50% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-22; known on 2011-03-23; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-22.
-
Time to McDonald's by kickscooter: 10 minutes +/-1 ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-22; known on 2011-03-23; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-22.
-
Muammar al-Gaddafi will no longer be the leader of Libya by 31 December 2011 ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-22; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2011-10-21.
-
Muammar al-Gaddafi will no longer be the leader of Libya by 31 March 2011 ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-22; known on 2011-03-31; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-31.
-
Muammar al-Gaddafi will no longer be the leader of Libya by 31 September 2011 ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-22; known on 2011-10-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-30.
-
Scooter will arrive on Weds. ( 65% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-21; known on 2011-03-23; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-22.
-
Scooter, due Weds, will arrive tomorrow. ( 30% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-21; known on 2011-03-22; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-22.
-
Copy of Spice and Wolf volume 3 I ordered, delivered tomorrow. ( 45% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-21; known on 2011-03-22; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-22.
-
Copy of Spice and Wolf volume 3 I ordered, due Tues, delivered today. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-21; known on 2011-03-21; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-21.
-
The world will not end on December 2012. ( 99% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by puya on 2011-03-18; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.
-
The international media will not mention anything about Japan's Earthquake on next Monday ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by wael on 2011-03-17; known on 2011-03-22; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-22.
-
There’s between $5 and $50 in the change jar (inclusive, counted by machine) ( 99% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-02-27; known on 2011-02-28; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-01.
-
There’s between $11 and $36 in the change jar (inclusive, counted by machine) ( 90% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-02-27; known on 2011-02-28; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-01.
-
There's between $16 and $26 in the change jar (inclusive, counted by machine) ( 75% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-02-27; known on 2011-02-28; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-01.
-
There's between $18.00 and $24.00 in the change jar (counted by machine). ( 50% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-02-27; known on 2011-02-28; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-01.
-
There is between $20.00 and $22.00 in my change jar (as determined by counting machine). ( 5% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-02-27; known on 2011-02-28; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-01.
-
My estimate of the change in my change jar, $21.06, is exactly right (as determined by counting machine). ( 0% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-02-27; known on 2011-02-28; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-01.
-
“By January 21, 2016, Facebook will not have the largest market share of social network users who log in at least once per day.” —John Feminella ( 47% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-25; known on 2016-01-21; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-21.
-
A significant portion of the plot of Kore wa Zombie Desu ka? will be revealed to be a “Dying Dream.” ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-01-22; known on 2011-07-18; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-05-08.
-
'3D printed products will win at least two Red Dot Design Awards in 2011' —Joris Peels ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-16; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.
-
'Bre Pettis will appear on the cover of Bloomberg Businessweek magazine in 2011.' —Joris Peels ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-16; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-02.
-
'I get a “real job”: 1%' —CronoDAS ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2012-01-01.
-
'I qualify for the Magic Pro Tour: 1%' —CronoDAS ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2012-01-01.
-
'The unemployment rate in the United States will continue to be above 8%: 90%' —CronoDAS ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-31.
-
Jared Loughner will be reported to be a registered Republican or Conservative, or will be reported to have attended a Tea Party event/rally ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-08; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-02-03.
-
'General AI will not be made in 2011.' —JoshuaZ ( 97% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.
-
'the next Mayor of Chicago is Rahm Emanuel' —SarahC ( 86% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2011-02-23; judged right by gwern on 2011-02-23.
-
'In 25 years, I bet there'll be many products we'll be allowed to buy but not see advertised – the things the government will decide we shouldn't be consuming because of their impact on healthcare costs or the environment but that they can't muster the po ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2035-01-01.
-
'Iran will test a nuclear weapon.' in 2011 —Capitol Commentary ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.
-
'Google will buy Twitter' in 2011 —Chris O'Brien ( 18% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.
-
“[In 2036, most] Companies that are currently large, debt-laden, listed on an exchange… and paying bonuses will be gone.” – Nassim Taleb (I interpret this less literally to large cap companies as usually structured now, 2010, based on context – NS) ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2010-11-28; known on 2037-01-01.
-
“[In 2036] The great top-down nation-state will be only cosmetically alive… The pre-modernist robust model of city-states… will prevail” — Nassim Taleb ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2010-11-26; known on 2037-01-01.
-
The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030. ( 16% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PatrickAchtelik on 2010-11-24; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by muflax on 2010-12-12.
-
The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade ( 67% confidence; 22 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by kallman on 2010-11-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2021-09-10.
-
“Friends of the Earth (US) will no longer be fighting against nuclear power by December 2015.” —Stewart Brand ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-17; known on 2015-12-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-01.
-
'more than half of Baby Boomers will live healthy lives beyond 100' —Ron Klatz ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-14; known on 2049-01-01.
-
'Vertical farms are appearing in many cities' by 2025 ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-29; known on 2026-01-01; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-09.
-
By 2100 it's obvious to the average human that (1) Global warming is true and (2) it's actually a good thing: Resulting in a better climate then we have had in recorded history. A stable Wet-Sahara/Warm-Siberia/No Rainforest scenario. ( 48% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-10-17; known on 2100-01-01.
-
The world will not end December 25, 2012. ( 98% confidence; 28 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Houshalter on 2010-06-13; known on 2012-12-26; judged right by Qiaochu on 2012-12-26.
-
Barack Obama will get reelected in two years (not individual opinion) ( 66% confidence; 17 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by tjross on 2010-03-23; known on 2012-11-06; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.
-
Absolutely nothing apocalyptic will happen in the year 2012. ( 98% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by thephilosiraptor on 2009-11-17; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by faws on 2013-01-01.
-
Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence. ( 8% confidence; 28 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2009-10-17; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by Jack on 2009-11-16.
-
In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older. ( 26% confidence; 25 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-17; known on 2070-12-31.
-
The world will end in 2012 ( 17% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.