Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Recent Predictions
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A fusion reactor will reach ignition before January 1st 2051, conditional on no existential catastrophes or wins. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2051-01-01.
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The fusion energy gain factor of a fusion reactor will reach a Q >= 1 before January 1st 2044, conditional on no existential catastrophes or wins. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2044-01-01.
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The U.S. plant-based and cultured-based retail market will be worth more than 9bn 2020USD throughout 2029. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2030-01-01.
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A company with its main activity being cultured meat and/or dairy products will be valued at >= 1bn 2020USD by January 1st, 2030. ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2030-01-01.
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Meat and/or dairy products from cellular agriculture will be commercially available by January 1st, 2030. ( 90% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2030-01-01.
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EIther Trump or Sanders will be president, and it won't change my life at all. ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ntrueman on 2020-02-23; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10.
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I will weigh between 165-175 pounds by end of August 2020 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by avi on 2020-02-22; known on 2020-08-31; judged wrong by avi on 2020-08-31.
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Politics – Turkish military forces engage in conflict with Syrian, Russian, or Syrian government-allied militia forces inside Syria by deadline. ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-22; known on 2020-04-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-04-19.
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Politics – Seven day “reduction in violence” starting 2020-02-21 between the Taliban and US is considered to have held by both parties. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-22; known on 2020-02-29; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-03-01.
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Academia, UK – Dr Jeremy Morris resigns or otherwise leaves their position as master of Trinity Hall, Cambridge by deadline. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-22; known on 2020-04-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-04-19.
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[Bill Wurtz releases a new video by] 10/1 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tumblewood on 2020-02-21; known on 2020-10-02; judged wrong by Tumblewood on 2020-10-07.
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[Bill Wurtz releases a new video by] 8/1 ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tumblewood on 2020-02-21; known on 2020-10-02; judged wrong by Tumblewood on 2020-07-31.
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[Bill Wurtz releases a new video by] 6/1 ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tumblewood on 2020-02-21; known on 2020-10-02; judged wrong by Tumblewood on 2020-06-02.
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[Bill Wurtz releases a new video by] 5/1 ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tumblewood on 2020-02-21; known on 2020-10-02; judged wrong by Tumblewood on 2020-05-01.
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[Bill Wurtz releases a new video by] 4/1 ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tumblewood on 2020-02-21; known on 2020-10-02; judged wrong by Tumblewood on 2020-04-02.
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[Bill Wurtz releases a new video by] 3/1 ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tumblewood on 2020-02-21; known on 2020-10-02; judged wrong by Tumblewood on 2020-03-07.
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At 30, I will have never been married. ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ejh3141 on 2020-02-20; known on 2031-02-04.
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US to withdraw from Five Eyes, conditional on UK decision to incorporate Huawei technologies into their 5G telecom infrastructure ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-02-18; known on 2025-01-01.
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Personal, Productivity – I will finish with IoT Assignment by 11:59 pm 15th Feb. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by atharva117 on 2020-02-15; known on 2020-02-15; judged wrong by atharva117 on 2020-02-16.
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Deepmind claims to pass the Turing test by the end of 2023 ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-02-14; known on 2024-01-01.
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swinging, swinging ( 100% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2020-02-13; known on 2020-03-21; judged right by playablecharacter on 2020-03-21.
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Politics, UK – Chancellor Sajid Javid is removed from their position as Chancellor by deadline. ( 20% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-13; known on 2020-02-20; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-02-13.
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Politics, UK – Attorney General Geoffrey Cox is removed from their position by deadline. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-13; known on 2020-02-20; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-02-15.
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Politics, UK – Andrea Leadsom is removed from the Cabinet by deadline. Change of position while remaining in the Cabinet does not count. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-13; known on 2020-02-20; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-02-15.
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The “2020 Iowa Democratic Caucuses Winner?” Augur market will resolve invalid ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by enolan on 2020-02-13; known on 2020-04-23; judged wrong by enolan on 2020-03-09.
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IV and I will have dinner tonight ( 90% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-02-12; known on 2020-02-12; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-02-13.
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Personal – I go cycling for any length of time > 0 before deadline. ( 75% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-11; known on 2020-02-12; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-02-12.
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Weather, UK – My bus home in Edinburgh is delayed more than ten minutes compared to published arrival time, night of 2020-02-08 ( 20% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-08; known on 2020-02-09; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-02-09.
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Weather, UK – Edinburgh Castle is closed or has reduced hours on 2020-02-09 due to weather ( 60% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-08; known on 2020-02-10; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-02-09.
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Sports, OWL- London Spitfire beats NY Excelsior ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-08; known on 2020-02-09; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-02-08.
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Personal – I weigh in at 75kg or below by deadline. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-01; known on 2020-03-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-02-18.
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Personal – I get hold of a key to the ground floor bike storage in my apartment building by deadline. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-01; known on 2020-02-10; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-02-12.
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Personal – My piped-in heating and hot water system is fixed by deadline. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-01; known on 2020-03-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-02-08.
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Health, UK – Confirmed person to person transmission of 2019-nCoV within UK before deadline. ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-01; known on 2020-03-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-02-29.
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Politics, UK – UK government changes its decision to permit Huawei components in non-core parts of the UK's 5G network before 2020-02 EOM. ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-01; known on 2020-03-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-03-01.
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Politics, UK – Flybe receives a loan or other transfer of money aside deferred tax payments from the UK government or agent thereof before deadline. ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-25; known on 2020-03-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-03-02.
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Health, UK – NSFT communications manager reported to have stepped down by the BBC before deadline. ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-25; known on 2020-03-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-03-01.
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Health, UK – News reports of a confirmed case of 2019-nCoV in UK by deadline. ( 74% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-23; known on 2020-02-28; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-01-31.
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[Conditional on Elon Musk not becoming impaired cognitively, at least one person will depart for Mars with the intent/expectation of not returning, by ] January 1, 2035 ( 23% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-01-23; known on 2035-01-01.
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[Conditional on Elon Musk not becoming impaired cognitively, at least one person will depart for Mars with the intent/expectation of not returning, by ] January 1, 2030 ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-01-23; known on 2035-01-01.
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[Conditional on Elon Musk not becoming impaired cognitively, at least one person will depart for Mars with the intent/expectation of not returning, by ] January 1, 2025 ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-01-23; known on 2035-01-01.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 100,000 ( 37% confidence; 37 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-04-10.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 50,000 ( 35% confidence; 30 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by nortriptyline2 on 2020-04-03.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 100 million ( 0% confidence; 29 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 50 million ( 1% confidence; 34 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 10 million ( 8% confidence; 36 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 5 million ( 12% confidence; 34 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 1 million ( 40% confidence; 45 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-09.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 500,000 ( 44% confidence; 46 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-29.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 10,000 ( 56% confidence; 45 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-03-20.
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There will be more than 8000 human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be reported before 2021 ( 71% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-30.
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Personal, Productivity – I get through “Economic Implications Of Software Minds” by deadline. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-19; known on 2020-01-27; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-01-26.
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Tech – Travelex website is once again offering online automated foreign exchange services before start of 2020-01-27. ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-19; known on 2020-01-27; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-01-27.
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[Personal] Climbing will still be my primary form of exercise by 2023 (continuous between 2020 and 2023; caveat: barring major injury) ( 100% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by sungk2048 on 2020-01-18; known on 2023-01-19; judged right by sungk2048 on 2023-01-20.
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Lab-cultured red protein that emulates beef will become commonplace, and sold in typical grocery stores, *by 2025*. ( 29% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sungk2048 on 2020-01-18; known on 2025-01-19.
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[Personal] My average fall asleep hour for 2020 will be 2:00 am or earlier ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by sungk2048 on 2020-01-18; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sungk2048 on 2021-11-10.
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[Personal] I will get a cat (more likely a pair of buddies) before 2025. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sungk2048 on 2020-01-18; known on 2025-01-19.
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California has an earthquake with either one death or >$1B in damage in 2020 ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-18; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.
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The Senate trial for Trump’s impeachment will have at least one witness give testimony (public or private) in 2020 ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-18; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-02-04.
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Tech – Charter delays shutdown of its home security service beyond 2020-02-05. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-18; known on 2020-02-06; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-02-10.
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Politics, UK – Big Ben rings on the 31st of January or 1st of February, London Time. ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-18; known on 2020-02-02; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-02-03.
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Business, UK – Ryanair sues the UK government in relation to agreements between the UK government and Flybe before deadline. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-18; known on 2020-02-18; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-02-28.
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Tech – SpaceX successfully completes emergency crew rescue test before deadline. ( 60% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-18; known on 2020-01-20; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-01-19.
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Meta-prediction: I win my predictions bet with David Manheim https://twitter.com/peterhurford/status/1217795302821896193 ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-17; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-05.
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Google's decision to remove support for third-party cookies in Chrome will be ruled an antitrust violation in the United States before 2025. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-17; known on 2025-01-01.
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[Personal] I will be underconfident across the past 6 personal predictions ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-01-16; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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[Personal] At the end of 2020, Dominion online will still be around, have the same rating system, and my rating will be at least 62 ( 40% confidence )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-01-16; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-29.
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[Personal] According to the Waking Up app, I'll have spent at least 2000 minutes meditating in the rest of 2020. ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-01-16; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by sty.silver on 2020-08-03.
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[Personal] I'll finish my LW sequence on Machine Learning with 1 post per week (end of Sunday CET) without ever being late ( 50% confidence )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-01-16; known on 2021-05-01; judged right by sty.silver on 2020-03-08.
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[Personal] My favorite album, movie, and TV show will all be the same at the end of 2020 as they are now. ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-01-16; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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[Personal] I'll still take Melatonin daily at the end of 2020 (remains true if I forget it <0.05 of the time) ( 95% confidence )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-01-16; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by sty.silver on 2020-12-29.
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[Personal] I'll work out at least twice on every day from now on till the end of 2020. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-01-16; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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There will be a 4x GM in Kaggle in 2020 ( 20% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-16; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.
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The Democratic Nominee will be someone other than Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Yang, Klobuchar, or Bloomberg ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2020-07-15; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-07-16.
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Mike Bloomberg is the US 2020 Democratic Party nominee ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2020-07-15; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-07-16.
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Amy Klobuchar is the US 2020 Democratic nominee ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2020-07-15; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-07-16.
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After the Democratic nominee is chosen, I will still assign between 35% and 45% to the chance of Trump winning the general election (currently 40%). ( 60% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2020-07-15; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-09-04.
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Scotland will announce an independence referendum in 2020 ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.
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Nicolás Maduro will be president of Venezuela on Dec. 31, 2020 ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.
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Trump meets with Kim in 2020 ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.
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The states (+DC) adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact have less combined electoral votes at the end of 2020 than they did in 2019 ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.
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Tesla has at least one truly autonomous (no human safety driver) taxi (where a member of the public chooses the destination and pays) on a regular street (where unrestricted human-driven cars are driven on the same street) by the end of 2020 ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.
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Ken Jennings wins the Jeopardy Greatest of All Time Tournament tonight ( 45% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2020-01-15; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15.
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Ken Jennings wins the Jeopardy Greatest of All Time Tournament ( 70% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2020-01-22; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15.
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A third-party candidate gets more than 5% of the vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election ( 8% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-14; known on 2020-11-07; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-11-07.
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Tech – Travelex website is once again offering online automated foreign exchange services before 2020-01-18 ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-11; known on 2020-01-19; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-01-19.
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Personal – I weigh in at below 80kg on or before 2020-01-25. ( 60% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-11; known on 2020-01-26; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-01-21.
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Personal – I manage to find a way to store my bike at ground level, short of the stairwell, before start of 2020-02-01 ( 55% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-11; known on 2020-02-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-02-01.
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Personal – My heating has been fixed by 2020-01-25 ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-11; known on 2020-01-26; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-01-27.
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Personal – My heating has been fixed by 2020-01-18 ( 20% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-11; known on 2020-01-18; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-01-18.
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Politics – Iran strikes, and does not deny striking, a US military base between 2020-01-12 and 2020-02-02 ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-11; known on 2020-02-03; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-02-03.
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Waymo offers rides to the airport this year. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2020-01-08; known on 2020-12-30; judged wrong by qznc on 2021-01-01.
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Personal – I weigh in at or below 70kg at least once before start of 2020-07-01. ( 85% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-08; known on 2020-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
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[Personal] I will read at least 16 books in 2020 Q1 ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2020-01-07; known on 2020-04-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-18.
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[Personal] I will read at least 32 books in 2020 H1 ( 73% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2020-01-07; known on 2020-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-05-29.
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[Personal] I will read at least 48 books in 2020 Q1-Q3 ( 73% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2020-01-07; known on 2020-10-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Personal] I will read at least 64 books in 2020 ( 72% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2020-01-07; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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Turing Testable AIs will be publicly available by 2030. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Prickman on 2020-01-07; known on 2030-01-01.
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in four months, the consensus among the national security community will be that we (i.e., the US) are not any more meaningfully said to be “at war” with Iran than we are now on 5 Jan 2020. ( 65% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-06; known on 2020-05-06; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-05-06.
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The U.S. will re-institute the draft during this decade. ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2020-01-05; known on 2030-01-01.