Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 60% | 33% | 80% | 100% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 2 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 38 |
Displaying all predictions made by EliTyre. Filter by:
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I'll fall asleep within one hour. ( 65% confidence )
Created by EliTyre on 2021-04-09; known on 2021-04-10; judged right by EliTyre on 2021-04-10.
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Based on here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ToBdcRGsqr8 The one in the blue dress was the mole. ( 50% confidence )
Created by EliTyre on 2021-03-19; known on 2021-03-19; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2021-03-19.
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Daniel wants to talk with me about his podcast. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by EliTyre on 2021-03-11; known on 2021-03-11; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2021-03-11.
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I will be in California on the 8th of March. ( 70% confidence )
Created by EliTyre on 2021-02-25; known on 2021-03-09; judged right by EliTyre on 2021-03-17.
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Proof that P≠NP (confirmed by Scott Aaronson) in 2021. ( 1% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.
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I'll still be sitting in this room in 1 minute. ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EliTyre on 2021-02-05; known on 2021-02-05; judged right by EliTyre on 2021-02-05.
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I'm going to strength train (in the sense of completing 5 sets of some barbell exercise), when I wake up tomorrow. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by EliTyre on 2021-02-05; known on 2021-02-06; judged right by EliTyre on 2021-02-10.
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I'm going to get a second PPP loan. (Mainly because there are so many places to apply, it seems like one of them will come through? But on the other hand, I'm about a week late in applying and maybe the money is basically all spoken for?) ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EliTyre on 2021-01-27; known on 2021-02-15; judged right by EliTyre on 2021-03-17.
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On reflection, I'll decide to talk to Tsvi tonight. ( 8% confidence )
Created by EliTyre on 2021-01-27; known on 2021-01-28; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2021-01-28.
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If I meet with Adam and Anna today, I'm going to find it as effective or more effective than our other convos. ( 20% confidence )
Created by EliTyre on 2020-08-18; known on 2020-08-19; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2020-08-18.
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My squat rack will arrive on or before august 21. ( 66% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by EliTyre on 2020-08-17; known on 2020-08-22; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2020-08-22.
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There will be riots and/or civil unrest, more extreme or on a larger scale than the the BLM protests and riots, in conjunction with the 2020 presidential election. ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by EliTyre on 2020-08-17; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by ayegill on 2020-11-16.
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I am going to have a second iteration of my conversation with Jack sometime in August. ( 83% confidence )
Created by EliTyre on 2020-08-10; known on 2020-09-01; judged right by EliTyre on 2020-08-17.
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Conditional on trying to nap sometime before 1:00 PM today, I will fall asleep. ( 60% confidence )
Created by EliTyre on 2020-08-10; known on 2020-08-10; judged right by EliTyre on 2020-08-10.
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I'm going to nap sometime before 1:00 PM today. ( 65% confidence )
Created by EliTyre on 2020-08-10; known on 2020-08-10; judged right by EliTyre on 2020-08-10.
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I'll be free to meet with Andrew between 5 and 9 tomorrow. ( 90% confidence )
Created by EliTyre on 2016-10-03; known on 2016-10-04; judged right by EliTyre on 2016-10-04.
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Today, since I am integrated and centered now, I will get done all of my daily tasks. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EliTyre on 2016-05-03; known on 2016-05-04; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2016-05-04.
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A certificate of impact has been issued at some point before today. ( 60% confidence )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-11-15; known on 2015-11-15; judged right by EliTyre on 2020-08-10.
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Jacquelyn K. will Skype me sometime in the next 3 weeks (or will try to do so, but will be constrained by factors which are my responsibility). ( 10% confidence )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-04-10; known on 2015-05-01; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2015-05-01.
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There will be 4 people or more (including myself) at the first meeting of the Chicago rationality group. ( 88% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-04-04; known on 2015-04-06; judged right by EliTyre on 2015-04-06.
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There will be between 6 and 15 people at the first meeting of the Chicago rationality group. ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-04-04; known on 2015-04-05; judged right by EliTyre on 2015-04-06.
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I will get out of bed at or before 7:00 tomorrow. ( 70% confidence )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-04-04; known on 2015-04-05; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2015-04-05.
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Jacquelyn K. Will not email me either today or tomorrow. ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-01-13; known on 2015-01-15; judged unknown by EliTyre on 2015-03-21.
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Jacquelyn K. will Skype me sometime in the next 3 weeks (or will try to do so, but will be constrained by factors which are my responsibility). ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-03-21; known on 2015-04-10; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2015-04-10.
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The attendance of the Chicago HP:MoR wrap party will be greater than 50 people. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-03-13; known on 2015-03-14; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2015-03-15.
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The attendance of the Chicago HP:MoR wrap party will be between 35 and 50 people. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-03-13; known on 2015-03-14; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2015-03-15.
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Between 5 and 20 people will attend the HP:MoR wrap party in Chicago. (Prediction made on March 4th) ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-03-10; known on 2015-03-14; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2015-03-14.
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I will be living in the Bay Area on or before July 1st of 2015, meaning I will have spent or am in the process of spending at least 8 weeks there. ( 90% confidence )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-03-02; known on 2015-07-01; judged right by EliTyre on 2015-07-01.
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Given that I do not contact her first (between now and then), Jacquelyn K. will not contact me before April 1st, 2015. ( 90% confidence )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-02-10; known on 2015-04-01.
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My dad did not read the Slate State Codex posts I recommended, by Sunday, even though he said he needed until Sunday to get to them. evidence: - He hadn't read them on Thursday. - I think that he would have called or emailed me after he finished them ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-02-25; known on 2015-02-25; judged right by EliTyre on 2015-03-01.
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I will be enrolled in 3, 4, or 5 classes at the University of Chicago, in the spring quarter of 2015. ( 10% confidence )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-02-10; known on 2015-04-01; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2015-03-30.
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HPMOR : Quirrel has the resurrection stone. ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by claz on 2015-01-25; known on 2015-03-16; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.
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I will be enrolled in (3, 4, or 5) college courses in the Spring 2015 academic quarter. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-01-15; known on 2015-03-30; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2015-03-30.
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I will fly back to Phoenix on the 21st of January, instead of driving at a somewhat later date. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-01-15; known on 2015-01-27; judged right by EliTyre on 2015-01-22.
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I will not have sex before July first of next year (2015). ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by EliTyre on 2014-11-21; known on 2015-07-01; judged right by EliTyre on 2015-07-01.