Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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The price of Bitcoin will be <=$50 before 20 December 2013. ( 6% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-19; known on 2013-12-20; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-20.
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Tom Claburn, Info Week: Google Glass Delayed in 2013 After Developers Puzzle Over Its Reason For Being ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-12-17; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by dk on 2013-12-19.
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Bitcoin goes below $600 in the next 30 days. ( 53% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by tedks on 2013-12-01; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by lavalamp on 2013-12-19.
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Family Guy will resurrect Brian ( 47% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Omid on 2013-11-26; known on 2023-03-01; judged right by adbge on 2013-12-17.
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On the HBWI? scale, the event will score in the interval [0,2.5], and I will reach Threshold 1 (see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/22504). ( 13% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-17; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-17.
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On the HBWI? scale, the event will score in the interval (2.5,5], and I will reach Threshold 1 (see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/22504). ( 14% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-17; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-17.
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On the HBWI? scale, the event will score in the interval (5,7.5], and I will reach Threshold 1 (see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/22504). ( 20% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-17; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-17.
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On the HBWI? scale, the event will score in the interval (7.5,10], and I will reach Threshold 1 (see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/22504). ( 20% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-17; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-17.
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On the HBWI? scale, the event will score in the interval (7.5,10], and I will not reach Threshold 1 (see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/22504). ( 7% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-17; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-17.
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On the HBWI? scale, the event will score in the interval (5,7.5], and I will not reach Threshold 1 (see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/22504). ( 13% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-17; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-17.
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On the HBWI? scale, the event will score in the interval (2.5,5], and I will not reach Threshold 1 (see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/22504). ( 10% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-17; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-17.
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Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-17; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-17.
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I will have completed a Master of Science degree in Computer Science by the end of 2013. ( 47% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Kaj_Sotala on 2011-10-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Kaj_Sotala on 2013-12-17.
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My default Anki deck will contain equal to or greater than 20,000 cards before 2014. ( 95% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-11-12; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-12-17.
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gwern.net total traffic will average >2000 daily visits in the week a year from now ( 85% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-17; known on 2013-12-17; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-12-17.
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gwern.net referral traffic will average <1000 daily visits in the week a year from now ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-17; known on 2013-12-17; judged right by gwern on 2013-12-17.
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I will get an A- in algorithms. ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-20; known on 2013-12-25; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-16.
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I will get at least 89% on the algorithms final. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-16; known on 2013-12-25; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-16.
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[mredactedw] will get an A in algorithms this semester. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-11; known on 2013-12-25; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-16.
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I will get an A in algorithms this semester. ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-11; known on 2013-12-25; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-16.
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I will get exactly 86 points on the algorithms final. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-14; known on 2013-12-25; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-16.
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The Buffalo Bills will make the playoffs during the 2013-2014 NFL season. ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-16.
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Angela Merkel will be reelected chancellor in 2013 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by dhoe on 2012-08-12; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by dhoe on 2013-12-16.
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The Hobbit 2 (Desolation of Smaug) will score at least an 8 on imdb on December 15th. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ZGreyArea on 2013-12-05; known on 2013-12-15; judged right by ZGreyArea on 2013-12-15.
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If it sees play, widespread over 3+ decks as a star card, I'll eat my own fucking cum and post pictures. Note: Star card would mean it's something you play 4 off. ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by thatonedude on 2013-09-12; known on 2013-12-06; judged wrong by Roxolan on 2013-12-15.
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Opportunity Rover to function until December 15 ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-06-01; known on 2013-12-15; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-15.
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FF: we will use multiple logos. ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by timesuptim on 2013-10-11; known on 2015-06-30; judged right by zzkt on 2013-12-15.
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BMR will shut down within a month. ( 5% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-12; known on 2013-12-13; judged right by gwern on 2013-12-13.
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BMR will shut down within a month. ( 5% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-12; known on 2013-12-13; judged right by gwern on 2013-12-13.
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I will get a homework average of at least 92.5% for the whole semester for algorithms. ( 73% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-16; known on 2013-12-25; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-13.
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I will get a homework average of at least 95% for the whole semester for algorithms. ( 69% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-16; known on 2013-12-25; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-13.
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“Story of My Life” by One Direction will be in the top 3 tracks for the United States on Spotify on or before January 17, 2014. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-17; known on 2014-01-18; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-12.
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SpaceX will launch more than 2 rockets this year. ( 71% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kiba on 2013-05-21; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by kiba on 2013-12-11.
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Pope Francis to be named official TIME Person of Year. ( 30% confidence )
Created by adbge on 2013-12-10; known on 2013-12-12; judged right by adbge on 2013-12-11.
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Pope Francis to be named official TIME Person of Year. ( 30% confidence )
Created by adbge on 2013-12-10; known on 2013-12-12; judged right by adbge on 2013-12-11.
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Snowden to be named official TIME Person of the Year. ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by adbge on 2013-12-10; known on 2013-12-13; judged wrong by adbge on 2013-12-11.
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Snowden to be named official TIME Person of the Year. ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by adbge on 2013-12-10; known on 2013-12-13; judged wrong by adbge on 2013-12-11.
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Snowden to be named official TIME Person of the Year. ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by adbge on 2013-12-10; known on 2013-12-13; judged wrong by adbge on 2013-12-11.
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Pope Francis to be named official TIME Person of Year. ( 30% confidence )
Created by adbge on 2013-12-10; known on 2013-12-12; judged right by adbge on 2013-12-11.
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I will be satisfied with project demo ( 66% confidence )
Created by Jach on 2013-10-23; known on 2013-12-06; judged wrong by Jach on 2013-12-11.
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Miley Cyrus beats Edward Snowden in the TIME 2013 Person of the Year Internet poll. ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by tedks on 2013-11-27; known on 2013-12-05; judged right by tedks on 2013-12-09.
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I will find a suitable Hobbit costume at the op-shop on Sunday ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ZGreyArea on 2013-12-05; known on 2013-12-08; judged right by ZGreyArea on 2013-12-09.
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Fed: Unemployment won't reach 7% until 2014 ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-14; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-12-07.
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I will need new glasses at my appointment ( 60% confidence )
Created by ZGreyArea on 2013-12-05; known on 2013-12-06; judged wrong by ZGreyArea on 2013-12-06.
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I will get all A-range (A-, A or A+) grades this semester ( 75% confidence )
Created by ZGreyArea on 2013-12-04; known on 2013-12-06; judged right by ZGreyArea on 2013-12-06.
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I will get a 100 on algorithms homework 8. ( 75% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-22; known on 2013-12-05; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-05.
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I will get at least a 90 on algorithms homework 8. ( 90% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-22; known on 2013-12-05; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-05.
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Sheep will shut down within a month. ( 30% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-12; known on 2013-12-13; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-12-04.
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I think it will snow a little bit in Glenwood over thanksgiving break ( 80% confidence )
Created by nicot on 2013-11-20; known on 2013-12-04; judged right by nicot on 2013-12-04.
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The Opportunity rover will continue doing science (either mobile or as a fixed station) until at least December 1, 2013 ( 82% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-05-01; known on 2013-12-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-03.