Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
Displaying all predictions made by pcm. Filter by:
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By 2045 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ( 38% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2045-01-01.
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Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060 ( 13% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-10; known on 2060-01-01.
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'Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 1 year' ( 70% confidence; 38 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-23; known on 2012-09-23; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-08.
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GJP: the Saudi monarchy continue to rule Saudi Arabia as of March 1, 2012 ( 93% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2012-03-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-03-01.
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2013-2014: Chinese GDP growth <8% —Michael Pettis ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-01.