Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 60% | 63% | 75% | 82% | 87% | 93% | |
Sample Size | 1292 | 1606 | 2197 | 2343 | 2286 | 671 | 10395 |
Displaying all predictions made by Cato. Filter by:
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[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Pete Buttigieg ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-18.
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[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Kamala Harris ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-18.
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[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Andrew Yang ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-18.
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[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Bernie Sanders ( 15% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-18.
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[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Elizabeth Warren ( 18% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-18.
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[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Joe Biden ( 37% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-18; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-18.
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[US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] any other candidate ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-11.
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[US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] Julian Castro ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-11.
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[US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] Amy Klobuchar ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-11.
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[US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] Pete Buttigieg ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-11.
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[US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] Cory Booker ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-11.
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[US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] Beto O'Rourke ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-11.
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[US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] Kamala Harris ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-11.
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[US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] Andrew Yang ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-11.
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[US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] Bernie Sanders ( 23% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-11.
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[US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] Elizabeth Warren ( 19% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-11.
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[US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] Joe Biden ( 35% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-11; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-11.
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[US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] any other candidate ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-02; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] Amy Klobuchar ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-02; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] Julian Castro ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-02; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] Beto O'Rourke ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-02; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] Cory Booker ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-02; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] Pete Buttigieg ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-02; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] Kamala Harris ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-02; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] Andrew Yang ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-02; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] Bernie Sanders ( 14% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-02; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-05.
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[US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] Elizabeth Warren ( 19% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-02; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] Joe Biden ( 30% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-02; judged right by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] any other candidate ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-23; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Amy Klobuchar ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-23; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Julian Castro ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-23; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Beto O'Rourke ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-23; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Cory Booker ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-23; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Pete Buttigieg ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-23; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Kamala Harris ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-23; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Andrew Yang ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-23; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Bernie Sanders ( 28% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-23; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Elizabeth Warren ( 19% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-23; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Joe Biden ( 29% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-23; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] any other candidate ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-12; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] Amy Klobuchar ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-12; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] Julian Castro ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-12; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] Beto O'Rourke ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-12; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] Cory Booker ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-12; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] Pete Buttigieg ( 12% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-12; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] Kamala Harris ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-12; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] Andrew Yang ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-12; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] Bernie Sanders ( 25% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-12; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] Elizabeth Warren ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-12; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] Joe Biden ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-12; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] any other candidate ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-04; judged wrong by Pablo on 2020-02-05.
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[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Amy Klobuchar ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-04; judged wrong by Pablo on 2020-02-05.
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[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Julian Castro ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-04; judged wrong by Pablo on 2020-02-05.
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[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Beto O'Rourke ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-04; judged wrong by Pablo on 2020-02-05.
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[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Cory Booker ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-04; judged wrong by Pablo on 2020-02-05.
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[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Pete Buttigieg ( 17% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-04; judged right by Cato on 2020-02-29.
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[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Kamala Harris ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-04; judged wrong by Pablo on 2020-02-05.
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[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Andrew Yang ( 5% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-04; judged wrong by Pablo on 2020-02-05.
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[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Bernie Sanders ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-04; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.
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[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Elizabeth Warren ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-04; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Joe Biden ( 23% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-04; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[Hong Kong's 2020 Tiananmen Square Incident commemoration vigil] to be canceled/banned ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-06-05; judged right by Cato on 2020-06-05.
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[Hong Kong's 2020 Tiananmen Square Incident commemoration vigil] attendance to exceed that of 2019, conditional on vigil being held ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-06-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-05.
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[US politics] Andrew Yang to participate in the third Democratic primary debate ( 80% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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Saudi Aramco's IPO valuation to be less than $2 trillion, conditional on IPO before 2020 EOY ( 67% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-15; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-13.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of September 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] September 2018 ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-10-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-08.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of September 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] August 2019 ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-10-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-08.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of August 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] July 2019 ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-09-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-09.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of August 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] August 2018 ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-09-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-09.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99 ( 13% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-08-08; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-08.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99 ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-08-08; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-08.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99 ( 27% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-08-08; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-08.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99 ( 28% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-08-08; judged right by Cato on 2019-08-08.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-08-08; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-08.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99 ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-08-08; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-08.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] under $40 ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-08-08; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-08.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] higher than $100 ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-08-08; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-08.
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[Commodities] Brent > WTI for all of 2019 through July EOM ( 89% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-08-08; judged right by Cato on 2019-08-08.
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[Politics] Martial law to be declared in at least part of Hong Kong by October 2019 EOM ( 23% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-04.
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[USDCNY: As of January 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.9 ( 75% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-02-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-02-29.
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[USDCNY: As of January 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.8 ( 81% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-02-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[USDCNY: As of January 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.7 ( 85% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-02-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[USDCNY: As of January 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.6 ( 90% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-02-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[USDCNY: As of January 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.5 ( 93% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-02-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[USDCNY: As of January 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 7 ( 57% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-02-01; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.9 ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-03-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-11.
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[USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.8 ( 75% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-03-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-11.
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[USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.7 ( 80% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-03-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-11.
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[USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.6 ( 85% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-03-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-11.
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[USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.5 ( 90% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-03-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-11.
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[USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 7 ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-03-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-11.
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[USDCNY: As of December 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.9 ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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[USDCNY: As of December 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.8 ( 84% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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[USDCNY: As of December 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.7 ( 90% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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[USDCNY: As of December 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.6 ( 90% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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[USDCNY: As of December 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.5 ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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[USDCNY: As of December 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 7 ( 60% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.9 ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2019-12-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-02.
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[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.8 ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2019-12-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-02.
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[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.7 ( 86% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2019-12-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-02.