Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 49% | 57% | 65% | 86% | 94% | 89% | |
Sample Size | 241 | 286 | 236 | 287 | 552 | 46 | 1648 |
Displaying all predictions made by pranomostro. Filter by:
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Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ( 54% confidence; 20 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2012-02-18; known on 2032-02-17.
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Second Falklands War before 2035 ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-07; known on 2035-01-01.
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USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China. ( 41% confidence; 17 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-04; known on 2030-01-01.
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By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ( 75% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-02-01; known on 2050-01-01.
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Natural languages no longer widely used for communication a century from now. (Conditional on non-extinction of Homo sapiens/non-occurrence of apocalypse.) ( 22% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-01; known on 2112-02-01.
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Human whole-genome sequencing <=$100 by 2020. ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-28; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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“Sovereign nation states will cease to exist and there will be one world government” —krozier93; BBC ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.
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The Sahara desert will be smaller by square kilometers in 2112 than 2012 ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.
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“Space elevators will make space travel cheap and easy” —Ahdok; BBC ( 34% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.
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“80% of the world will have gay marriage” —Paul, BBC ( 71% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.
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“There will only be three languages in the world – English, Spanish and Mandarin” —Bill Walker, BBC ( 2% confidence; 34 wagers; 24 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.
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Functioning commercial fusion by 2112 —Kennys_Heroes, BBC ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.
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“Nanorobots will flow around our body fixing cells, and will be able to record our memories” —Alister Brown, BBC ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.
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'Antarctica will be “open for business”' —Dev 2; BBC ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.
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“We will be able to control the weather” —mariebee_; BBC ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.
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“We will have the ability to communicate through thought transmission” —Dev 2; BBC ( 63% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.
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SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021. ( 13% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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“computing systems powerful enough to manage a synapse-level simulation of a human brain in real time and then some” by 2092 —Charles Stross ( 69% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
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A human neural connectome will have been mapped by 2092 —Charles Stross ( 93% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
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Cultured mammalian meat cheaper than and as tasty as real meat by 2092 —Charles Stross ( 72% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
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Between 2012 and 2092, a new plague will kill 1M<x<1B people —Charles Stross ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
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Limb and organ (re)growth medically commercialized —Charles Stross ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
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Diabetes cured by 2092 —Charles Stross ( 80% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
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Aging arrested or reversible by 2092 —Charles Stross ( 66% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
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By 2092, any orbital solar power stations will still be for space applications, and not ground use (eg. beaming it down as microwaves) —Charles Stross ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
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“The USA will not have been the dominant planetary superpower for at least fifty years. The EU won't have replaced it. China will be over the peak and probably a long way down the down-slope. The future belongs to someone else. Maybe Brazil or India?” —C ( 52% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
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“Between 50% and 80% of them will be city-dwellers, and their average age will be rising.” ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
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“There will be 5-10 billion people.” —Charles Stross ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
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By 2092, “20-40% of mammalian species, 20-60% of reptiles, 40-80% of amphibia, and maybe 50% or more of insects will be extinct.” —Charles Stross ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
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“HIV will be curable — either through better anti retroviral drugs or through gene therapy” by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 45% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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“Newspapers as we know them today will either not exist, or no longer print ink on paper” by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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“Half of Facebook, Google, Apple, Microsoft, Hewlett-Packard, Nokia, Sony and IBM will no longer exist” —Charles Stross ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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“gigabit wireless connection speeds will be the norm outside the home or office” by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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Genetically-modified-crop-caused famine by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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“Moore's Law will have played out by 2032” —Charles Stross ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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Cultured mammalian meat commercially available by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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All freshwater fisheries fed on processed jellyfish by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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“the trend towards urbanization continues” 2012-2032 —Charles Stross ( 85% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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Average global age higher in 2032 than 2012 —Charles Stross ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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“Cars will probably mostly be plug-in hybrids” in 2032 —Charles Stross ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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Automated driving infrastructure in First World; majority of new cars large/completely automated. —Charles Stross ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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Commercial fusion reactor online by 2063 —Charles Stross ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2063-01-01.
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Pilot net-energy fusion plant online by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 49% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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“oil will still be available and planes will still be burning it.” —Charles Stross ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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Total Chinese rice production to be less in 2032 than in 2012 ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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Climate change denial completely discredited – “about as respectable as Lysenkoism is today” —Charles Stross ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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Charles Stross will survive to 2032 ( 71% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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Riemann's Hypothesis and Goldbach's Conjecture will be resolved before a proof is found of whether White wins or ties chess. —Doron Zeilberger ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-06; known on 2112-01-06.
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'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' —Kevin ( 14% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-01; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
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The James Webb Telescope will launch successfully by the end of 2019 ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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united Korea’s GDP > Japan in 2050 ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-31; known on 2050-01-01.
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united Korea's GDP > France, Germany, and Japan in 2050 ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-31; known on 2050-01-01.
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'I expect to see an impressive proto-AGI within the next 8 years' —Shane Legg ( 20% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-31; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2019-12-31.
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Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP. ( 86% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-29; known on 2025-12-29.
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In 20 years, mainland China's TI Corruption Perceptions Index will be lower (better) than the USA. ( 22% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2031-12-28.
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The Yellowstone Supervolcano will have a magmatic eruption before 2023 ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-27; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB). ( 20% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-24; known on 2021-12-24; judged wrong by gwern on 2021-12-24.
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A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020. ( 21% confidence; 21 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by ceterisparibus on 2011-11-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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gwern.net will be up and accessible with content in 2020. ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-08; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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James Randi will live to be 93 years old. ( 44% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2011-12-05; known on 2021-08-07; judged wrong by gav on 2020-11-10.
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Jimmy Wales and/or the WMF and/or any of its employees will be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize within 34 years. ( 24% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2045-12-04.
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North Korea will be wealthier than Afghanistan in 2061. —Scott Sumner ( 73% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-03; known on 2061-01-01.
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The singularity will occur by the year 2070 ( 45% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pleeppleep on 2011-12-02; known on 2070-01-01.
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By 2035, the Voynich Manuscript will be determined to be written in an archaic form of a language or dialect currently spoken in Italy. ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-24; known on 2035-01-01.
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No open source Minecraft client before 2023 ( 57% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-22; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2023-01-01.
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By 2050, the Great Red Spot will no longer be the largest storm on Jupiter. ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-23; known on 2050-01-01.
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“Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150.” -lukeprog ( 66% confidence; 13 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20; known on 2150-01-01.
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Caffeine will be an illegal substance … in 60 countries by 2027. ( 4% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2027-01-01.
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By 2024, either a) group isomorphism problem will be shown to be equivalent to the graph isomorphism problem or b) the group isomorphism will be shown to be in P. ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-17; known on 2024-01-01.
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the Earth will be hit by a less than a mile wide asteroid by 2029. Two will be seen and one will hit. Impact will be in the Pacific Ocean south of Guam. ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-07-29.
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With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ( 8% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2023-07-29; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-05.
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The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII). ( 5% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2039-12-15.
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Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025. ( 8% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-11-17.
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Computers will become truely self-aware by 2029. ( 31% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-12-27.
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Surgeries for 95% of the worlds medical problems will be drastically cost-reduced and available by 2028. ( 27% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2028-12-27.
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The worlds first “truely” cryogenic sleep chamber will go online in Feb. 2027, fixing a flawed design and conditions for cryogenic stasis. ( 5% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2027-02-27.
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The Third World War (WW III) will occur within 20 years from 2012. ( 15% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-12-31.
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Worldwide biometric ID system will go online by 2022, unknown to the standard publics awareness. ( 13% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2022-12-30.
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HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it. ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-11-30.
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Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029. ( 7% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-12-01.
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The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045 ( 56% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-17; known on 2046-01-01.
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The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035 ( 51% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-17; known on 2036-01-01.
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A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment. ( 4% confidence; 20 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2026-11-30.
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The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025 ( 30% confidence; 15 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-17; known on 2026-01-01.
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The first truly human telepathic-link will occur in 2065 via a biometric implant. ( 6% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2065-12-01.
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The United States, Canada, and Mexico will form the North American Union in August 2020. ( 4% confidence; 22 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2020-08-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-08-30.
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Truly “Pilotless” air travel will be the standard in 2050. ( 62% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2050-12-16.
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Contact Sports (football,boxing, kick boxing, most martial arts) will be outlawed in 60% of the world by 2025 due to a medical discovery. ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-12-16.
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Holographic Television (HTV) will be a trillion dollar industry by 2025. ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-12-16.
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Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025. ( 10% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-01-16.
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World governments will ban chemical/Biological/Nuclear weapons after The Third World War (WW III) and make it a penalty of death to all who develop such weapons … anywhere … on Earth. ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2040-01-16.
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The Third World War (WW III) death toll will exceed 2.5 billion people, with another 2 billion to follow 15 years after the war has ended. ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-01-16.
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By 2046 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125 ( 62% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-16; known on 2045-01-01.
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By 2036 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125 ( 35% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-16; known on 2036-01-01.
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By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150 ( 28% confidence; 20 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-16; known on 2085-01-01.
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By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140 ( 42% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-16; known on 2085-01-01.
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The oldest living person on 2020-01-01 will be at least 130 years old. ( 0% confidence; 15 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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The Singularity will occur by 2050. ( 34% confidence; 27 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by michaelanissimov on 2011-11-15; known on 2050-01-01.
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The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025. ( 72% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.
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The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025. ( 30% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.