Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 44% | 59% | 78% | 85% | 87% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 32 | 44 | 46 | 34 | 120 | 13 | 289 |
Displaying all predictions made by gimpf. Filter by:
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The Pirate Party will enter the Parliament of Berlin (Berliner Abgeordnetenhaus) in the 2011 election. ( 44% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-15; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by faws on 2011-09-23.
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A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040. ( 68% confidence; 46 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by rwallace on 2009-10-14; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by freyley on 2009-10-21.
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Civil conflict will break out in the US by the end of 2011. ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by max on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.
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There will be a consensus among physicists that the Large Hadron Collider has provided experimental verification for the existence of the Higgs Boson by the end of October 2011. ( 36% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jack on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-10-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-31.
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Apple will surpass Microsoft in revenue in a max. of 5 years. ( 63% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by crlosg2 on 2009-05-31; known on 2014-05-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-05-05.