Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 33% | 100% | 50% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
Displaying all predictions made by brandyn. Filter by:
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Tesla will achieve approved full self-driving in at least one state in the USA by the end of 2024 without geofencing. ( 24% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2020-01-01; known on 2024-12-31.
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Donald Trump will NOT be re-elected ( 55% confidence; 26 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by tcsmithbiz@yahoo.com on 2019-12-23; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2020-11-07.
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President Trump will win the 2020 Election. ( 54% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by meganwhalen20 on 2019-11-11; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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At least 10% of packages in any major country delivered autonomously (last kilometer) in 2019. ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by brandyn on 2015-01-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by brandyn on 2020-01-01.
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Can be (legally) driven on standard roads between a majority of arbitrary street addresses in at least one major city or region (in any country) by a fully autonomous vehicle by 2020 Jan 1. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by brandyn on 2015-01-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by brandyn on 2020-01-01.
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Fusion used (not just demonstrated) as a general power source (>1 Watt) anywhere in the world before 2020 Jan 1. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by brandyn on 2015-01-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by brandyn on 2020-01-01.
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A nuclear bomb (primary, not dirty) will be detonated, anywhere on earth, immediately killing more than 100 people, any time between 2015/1/1 and 2020/1/1. ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by brandyn on 2015-01-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-01-01.
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S&P 500 P/E below 9 any time before 2020 Jan 1. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by brandyn on 2015-01-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by brandyn on 2020-01-01.