Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 65% | 81% | 82% | 83% | 89% | |
Sample Size | 14 | 17 | 16 | 17 | 47 | 9 | 120 |
Displaying all predictions made by David. Filter by:
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Google's Project Jacquard will be wildly successful. We will use clothes/furniture to control both the behaviour of our devices and the data stored on — or accessed via — said devices. ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-03; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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Charles Kennedy cause of death will seem to have been confirmed as suicide in 2015 (in my judgement if ambiguous or disputed) ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-06-02; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-06-14.
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Both the Democrats and the Republicans will each have at least 160 seats in the 115th House of Representatives ( 85% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-02; known on 2016-11-12; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ( 29% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-25; known on 2025-01-01.
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No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo ( 45% confidence; 13 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-22; known on 2050-05-29.
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Voter turnout for the US Presidential election to be less than 49% of registered voters. ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-28; known on 2016-11-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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There will be at least two Democratic Presidential primary debates for the next US Presidential election. ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-26; known on 2016-07-25; judged right by Jenson on 2016-07-14.
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US official unemployment rate to remain between 3% and 7.5% through January 1, 2020. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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In both the 2016 and 2018 US elections, neither party will get a filibuster proof majority. ( 71% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-25; known on 2018-11-20; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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Before January 1, 2020 the Dow will stay within 12,500 and 29,000 ( 72% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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MealSquares will have a vegan option available by this time next year ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-24; known on 2016-05-25; judged wrong by Temeraire on 2016-06-05.
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Rate of violent crime in Pakistan will start dropping around 2020, correlated with lead exposure 20 years earlier ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2015-05-24; known on 2030-12-31.
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Hillary Clinton to withdraw from the US presidential election by March 17th, 2016, and Martin O'Malley to be the Democratic nominee. ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-23; known on 2016-03-17; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-17.
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Democrat to win popular vote in 2016 with at least 57% of the popular vote. ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-20; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Both the Republicans and the Democrats to each have at least 34 US Senators after the 2016 election ( 91% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-20; known on 2016-11-12; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Bernie Sanders to win the Democratic nomination. ( 18% confidence; 66 wagers; 38 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-02; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-10.
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Scientific consensus that EM drive works in 5 years. ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-01; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-05-01.
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J. will have Eve and me over for dinner before December. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-30; known on 2015-12-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-01.
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Should James Eagan Holmes be found guilty, he will be sentenced capital punishment. ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-28; known on 2015-10-29; judged wrong by btrettel on 2015-08-07.
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Justice Scalia votes to overturn Obergefell v. Hodges, in such a way that same-sex marriages can be performed in every U.S. state. ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by orthonormal on 2015-04-28; known on 2015-08-01; judged wrong by orthonormal on 2015-06-27.
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Obergefell v. Hodges overturned by the Supreme Court, in such a way that same-sex marriages can be legally performed in every U.S. state. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by orthonormal on 2015-04-28; known on 2015-08-01; judged right by orthonormal on 2015-06-27.
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Hillary Clinton to be the next elected President of the United States. ( 56% confidence; 43 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-27; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Hillary Clinton will be the next president elect. ( 62% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-26; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Barcelona will win the 2015 Champions League ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Andrew MacFie on 2015-04-24; known on 2015-06-06; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2015-06-06.
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Juventus will win the 2015 Champions League ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Andrew MacFie on 2015-04-24; known on 2015-06-06; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2015-06-06.
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By April 21, 2020, World War III will have broken out. ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-21; known on 2020-04-21; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-04-21.
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I will get to Gold Division in League of Legends before the end of season 5. ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15; known on 2015-11-30; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-12-13.
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EUR/USD above 1.10 at end of June. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Chri on 2015-04-12; known on 2015-07-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-07-01.
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Roberts votes with the majority on King v Burwell ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-08-01; judged right by David on 2015-06-25.
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King v. Burwell is decided for the government. ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-08-01; judged right by David on 2015-06-25.
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Nuclear war in 25 years. ( 10% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by argothiel on 2015-03-04; known on 2040-03-16.
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A nuclear bomb (primary, not dirty) will be detonated, anywhere on earth, immediately killing more than 100 people, any time between 2015/1/1 and 2020/1/1. ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by brandyn on 2015-01-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-01-01.
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A and M will be regularly using PredictionBook one year from now. ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by adri on 2014-11-27; known on 2015-11-27; judged wrong by adri on 2015-11-29.
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I will be a Worm character for Halloween ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-26; known on 2015-11-01; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16.
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Justen and I will dress up as Sirius and the Joker (Nolanverse) for Halloween. ( 34% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by from3004 on 2014-11-26; known on 2015-10-31; judged wrong by from3004 on 2015-10-31.
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Ebola has killed fewer than 1000 people in the US or Canada by November 2015 ( 95% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by LogicalOxymoron on 2014-11-22; known on 2015-11-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-11-01.
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The Republicans will repeal the ACA by November 2015. *I'm going to withdraw this prediction as I wasn't thinking that the Republicans do not hold enough seats to override a presidential veto. ( 23% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by ren on 2014-11-11; known on 2015-11-08; judged wrong by NathanMcKnight on 2015-11-04.
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Nothing will pass the Turing Test before 2017 ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-04; known on 2017-01-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2017-01-16.
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The r0 of the 2014 Ebola outbreak will be under 2 ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by msevrens on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-28.
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There will be no religion in 100 years. ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-13; known on 2114-08-13.
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I'll be addicted to this site even after 1 year. ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2015-08-02; judged wrong by David on 2015-08-02.
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Dragos Ruiu's “badBIOS” claims will be verified as true and due to a attack package akin to Flame/Stuxnet ( 24% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-01; known on 2015-11-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-11-01.
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Dave Strider (Alpha timeline, from Beta universe) will die a permanent death by the conclusion of Homestuck ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ChairmanMeow on 2013-10-31; known on 2015-10-31.
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Yvain will be fired (or asked to resign) from his Psychiatrist position due to breach of confidentiality in the next 2 years. ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Tenoke on 2013-07-18; known on 2015-07-18; judged wrong by Malcolm Ocean on 2015-07-19.
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The 2016 presidential election will be Jeb Bush v. Hillary Clinton. Yes, again! ( 14% confidence; 27 wagers; 16 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07; known on 2016-11-30; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-02-21.
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HP MoR: MoR will win a Hugo for Best Novel 2013-2017 ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-13; known on 2017-09-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-04-29.
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Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ( 54% confidence; 20 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2012-02-18; known on 2032-02-17.
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By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150 ( 28% confidence; 20 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-16; known on 2085-01-01.
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By November 2015, Howard Dean will form an exploratory committee to float his name for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination. ( 30% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2015-11-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-01.
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“Friends of the Earth (US) will no longer be fighting against nuclear power by December 2015.” —Stewart Brand ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-17; known on 2015-12-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-01.
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“Within five years the Chinese government will have embarked on a major eugenics program designed to mass produce super-geniuses. (40%)” —James Miller ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-07; known on 2015-10-06; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-07.
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Vinay Deolalikar's proof of P≠NP will not be accepted by the Clay Mathematics Institute. ( 97% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-09; known on 2015-08-09; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-09.