Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 40% | 46% | 69% | 75% | 86% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 15 | 24 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 1 | 79 |
Displaying all predictions made by Porejide. Filter by:
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Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK —Charlie Stross ( 2% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-10-07; known on 2026-10-07.
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Ted won't be able to provide me with a way to actually restrict the player universe in an ESPN fantasy football draft to remove the keepers in the next 48 hours. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Porejide on 2016-08-12; known on 2016-08-14; judged right by Porejide on 2016-08-15.
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Hillary Clinton wins the presidential election 2016 ( 64% confidence; 26 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2016-07-04; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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The SNIFF trial of nasal insulin for AD will NOT show a statistically significant improvement in CSF Abeta or CSF Abeta/tau ratio over time (i.e., these will NOT be reported as significant by the study investigators). ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2015-11-26; known on 2016-12-31.
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The SNIFF trial of nasal insulin will show a statistically significant improvement in ADAS-Cog scores OR memory composite OR ADCS-ADL (i.e., this will be reported by the study investigators). ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2015-11-26; known on 2016-12-31.
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My subjectively objective risk for one or more cancer types will triple as a result of analyzing my WGS results over the next 4 months. ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-16; judged wrong by Porejide on 2017-09-19.
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If I discover a convenient way to test it, my polygenic risk score for schizophrenia will be above the population average (based on rare variant enrichment). ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-15.
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My top shared 5 F2 variants from the 1000 genome data will all be from people from Northern European countries. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-15; judged right by Porejide on 2017-09-19.
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I will get further medical testing (confirmatory genetic testing, or lab results) as a result of my WGS results. ( 20% confidence )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-15; judged wrong by Porejide on 2017-09-19.
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I will spend >30 hours of non-class time analyzing my personal WGS data over the next four months. ( 33% confidence )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-15; judged wrong by Porejide on 2017-09-19.
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I will regret having my whole genome sequenced in 4 months (self-report). ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-15; judged wrong by Porejide on 2017-09-19.
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My WGS results will inspire me to develop a new habit in the next 4 months, either via a new SR habit flashcard or a new lifestats column. ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-15; judged wrong by Porejide on 2017-09-19.
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There will be a greater than 97.5% concordance btwn my WGS data and 23&me SNP calls. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-15.
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More than 13% of the loss of function genes in my WGS data will be related to chemosensation. ( 66% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-15.
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I will have >100 loss of function variants in my WGS data. (https://www.sciencemag.org/content/335/6070/823) ( 55% confidence )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-15.
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Corey Y was talking about David W Buchanan https://www.linkedin.com/pub/david-buchanan/25/9a/b24 https://twitter.com/slatestarcodex/status/563886414203342849 ( 98% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Porejide on 2015-02-07; known on 2015-02-14.
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Created by Porejide on 2015-07-25; known on 2025-07-25.
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I will make > 100 technical anki flashcards for perfusion/cryopreservation topics by 6 weeks from now. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Porejide on 2015-04-12; known on 2015-05-24; judged wrong by Porejide on 2015-09-15.
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I will have a matrixeqtl result for the Myers data by tomorrow night. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Porejide on 2015-04-11; known on 2015-04-13; judged wrong by Porejide on 2015-04-13.
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We will “win” Escape the Room tonight. ( 25% confidence )
Created by Porejide on 2015-04-11; known on 2015-04-12; judged wrong by Porejide on 2015-04-12.
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HP MoR: Harry is Voldemort ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by ahartell on 2012-01-02; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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Depression rates be an average of 1.0% higher in each of the following age groups in 2022 (to adjust for any demographic shifts). We should have access to this data in late 2014 (ie 10 years from now). According to the NIMH's interpretation of the NSD ( 65% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2014-11-30; known on 2024-11-30.
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I will still be using the same physical new macbook pro that I just bought on August 20, 2018, contingent on still being in my school program ( 70% confidence )
Created by Porejide on 2014-08-20; known on 2018-08-20.
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Eliezer will state that he has finished writing HPMOR by the end of 2014. ( 33% confidence; 19 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Calien on 2014-08-19; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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Amazon Prime will cost $150 per year or less on Jan 1, 2017. Contingent upon no major changes in the Amazon prime system (e.g., no premium service, drones, or changes in shipping rates). Per convo w Chris S, who thinks Amazon is gonna start trying to actu ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Porejide on 2014-03-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Yvain will be fired (or asked to resign) from his Psychiatrist position due to breach of confidentiality in the next 2 years. ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Tenoke on 2013-07-18; known on 2015-07-18; judged wrong by Malcolm Ocean on 2015-07-19.
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Airplanes are becoming less safe in the 2010's than they were in the 2000's in the U.S. ( 36% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-07-06; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2022-01-03.
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Jason will own a tablet (or regularly use a family one) before Dec 31, 2017. https://twitter.com/jsnsndr/status/270254241891889153 ( 80% confidence )
Created by Porejide on 2012-11-18; known on 2017-12-01.
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Nobody will answer my SO question (http://stackoverflow.com/q/13387898/560791) with an answer that fixes the problem (i.e., allows the agent to run the main logic) within 48 hours. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Porejide on 2012-11-14; known on 2012-11-16; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-11-15.
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Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 69% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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A paper written or co-written by me is accepted for publication in the journal Utilitas by 2013 ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Pablo on 2014-01-01.
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Conditional upon the website existing and the NFL season occuring (and of course, the world not ending), Stephen Hill (NYJ) will be rated in the top 50 WR's at http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/rankings/wr.php next year on July 15. ( 66% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Porejide on 2012-09-14; known on 2013-07-15; judged wrong by Porejide on 2013-07-15.
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An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years. ( 8% confidence; 17 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-14; known on 2032-11-10.
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By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone. ( 53% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-04; known on 2022-08-04; judged right by atzeje on 2022-05-23.
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First directly brain-controlled internet post will be announced within the next 5 years. ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-08-01; known on 2018-01-01.
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In the 2012 election, Obama will pick up at least one state he didn't win in 2008. ( 30% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-08-01; known on 2012-11-10; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-11-07.
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In 2032, solar power will be at least 150% of the second highest energy source of us consumption (in kwh). ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2012-07-28; known on 2032-01-01.
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Ben: In 2022, in the US, >50% of the top 5% of citizens by income who use computers will not be using a mouse / keyboard. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2012-07-09; known on 2023-01-01.
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Facebook will fall as low as $15 in 2012 ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-29; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be invoke the Imperius-debts of other Wizengamot members ( 18% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be reveal the truth about Bellatrix's escape ( 1% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be using the Time-turner in some way ( 23% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be ask for a trial by combat ( 2% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be invoking Lucius's debt to whomever killed his supposed Imperiuser ( 35% confidence; 21 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged right by Grognor on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2013. ( 12% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-01-01.
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HP MoR: HPMOR will update at least twice in 2012 ( 95% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Isaac on 2012-03-16.
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Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ( 54% confidence; 20 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2012-02-18; known on 2032-02-17.
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A human neural connectome will have been mapped by 2092 —Charles Stross ( 93% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
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I scored a 90 or higher on my calc quiz today. ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ahartell on 2012-01-12; known on 2012-01-26; judged right by ahartell on 2012-01-17.
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No contact with intelligent aliens be made in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 31 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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There will be a driverless car available for purchase for less than $100,000 (inflation adjusted to Jan 1, 2012) in the US in 2018. ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Porejide on 2022-09-25.
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At least three papers with the word “connectomics” in their title or abstract will be published in Nature in 2012. ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Porejide on 2013-01-02.
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By Jan 1, 2013, there will be a way to directly input your estimated probability distribution across a range of different possible quantities when making a prediction on PB. ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-01-01.
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12 Angry Men will be #5 or higher on imdb's top 250 on Jan 1, 2013. (it is currently #6) http://www.imdb.com/chart/top ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Porejide on 2013-01-02.
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The Shawshank Redemption will be #1 on imdb's top 250 on Jan 1, 2013. (it is currently #1) http://www.imdb.com/chart/top ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Porejide on 2013-01-02.
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On Jan 1, 2013, there will be seven or more movies from 2012 on imdb's top 250. http://www.imdb.com/chart/top ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Porejide on 2013-01-02.
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On Jan 1, 2013, there will be 3 or fewer movies from 2011 on imdb's top 250. (down from current 6) http://www.imdb.com/chart/top ( 61% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-01-01.
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By five years from now, (independent) transcriptome data from human post-mortem samples will confirm the finding that the expression of DRD2 is significantly upregulated in the striatum during development (from birth to >= day 100, at alpha 0.05), conting ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Porejide on 2011-11-24; known on 2016-11-24.
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The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045 ( 56% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-17; known on 2046-01-01.
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The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035 ( 51% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-17; known on 2036-01-01.
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The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025 ( 30% confidence; 15 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-17; known on 2026-01-01.
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“3D printing” will be a multi-billion dollar industry by 2021. ( 71% confidence; 14 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-14.
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A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025. ( 41% confidence; 10 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2025-01-01.
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“About 85% of the oldest-lived companies listed have websites. I bet the ones that will fail in the next 5 years will be in the 15% that don’t have a website in 2008.” —Kevin Kelly ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-08; known on 2013-06-13; judged right by gwern on 2013-07-05.
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Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030 ( 26% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Alexander Kruel on 2011-08-17; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by Porejide on 2011-08-25.
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“Magnitude 8.0 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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I will complete the Good Judgment Project and be paid the full honorarium. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-05; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2015-01-01.
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Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen. ( 47% confidence; 23 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-03; known on 2041-01-01.
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the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. —S. Jay Olshansky ( 7% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-29; known on 2100-01-01.