Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
-
Я завершу первой главу ВКР до 1 ноября ( 70% confidence )
Created by Stommelen on 2018-09-27; known on 2018-11-01; judged wrong by Stommelen on 2018-11-12.
-
Jets will win the super bowl ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by rimbalzanoo on 2018-11-08; known on 2019-02-14; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-08.
-
Jets will win the super bowl ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by rimbalzanoo on 2018-11-08; known on 2019-02-14; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-08.
-
I will successfully make it through “No Nut November” without masturbating. ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-11-01; known on 2018-12-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-11-11.
-
Nationwide school voucher system instigated, >70% of public schools effectively privatized, by US midterms. ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Temeraire on 2017-01-28; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
-
Martin Shkreli convicted of a US crime before 2018. ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-17; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
-
Democrats obtain a majority in the house ( 70% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
-
“Turkey will join the European Union and become a model for a Democratic Islamic State and lead the way for advancing relations between the Islamic world and “Western World”” ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
-
US Election 2018: Number of Democrats in House of Representatives win < 95 seats ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-19; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
-
Joe Manchin will win his 2018 Senate race in West Virginia. ( 73% confidence )
Created by davatk on 2018-05-01; known on 2018-12-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
-
Republicans will win the house in 2018. ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-17; known on 2018-12-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
-
The Democrats will take control of at least one Congressional house in the midterms. ( 70% confidence )
Created by burning.harvest on 2017-05-19; known on 2018-12-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
-
The US Democratic Party wins a majority in the US Senate after the 2018 Midterm elections ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known on 2018-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
-
The US Democratic Party wins a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2018 Midterm elections ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known on 2018-12-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
-
The “3 Cal” proposal to create three different California states gets a majority of votes in the 2018 election ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-06-17; known on 2018-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
-
Democrats gain control of the House of Representatives in the 2018 election. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dipitashick on 2017-05-28; known on 2018-11-30; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
-
Democrats gain control of the Senate in the 2018 election. ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by dipitashick on 2017-05-28; known on 2018-11-30; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
-
In both the 2016 and 2018 US elections, neither party will get a filibuster proof majority. ( 71% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-25; known on 2018-11-20; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
-
Republicans will maintain control of the House of Representatives in 2018 elections ( 53% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2018-11-20; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
-
[The 2018 Michigan gubernatorial election] will have Gretchen Whitmer as the Democratic nominee ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-02; known on 2018-11-18; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
-
[The 2018 Michigan gubernatorial election] will have Bill Schuette as the Republican nominee ( 93% confidence )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-02; known on 2018-11-18; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
-
[The 2018 Michigan gubernatorial election] will be won by a Republican ( 48% confidence )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-02; known on 2018-11-18; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
-
[The 2018 Michigan gubernatorial election] will be won by a Democrat ( 52% confidence )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-02; known on 2018-11-18; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
-
Kid Rock will not run for Senate in Michigan in 2018 ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2018-11-16; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
-
Politics, Korea – Before 1 January 2019, South Korean President Moon Jae-in visits Pyongyang. ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
-
Lewis Hamilton will become 2018 Formula 1 World Champion ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Stommelen on 2018-09-27; known on 2018-11-25; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
-
Politics, US – Texas Will not elect a Democratic senator in 2018 ( 69% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukefreeman on 2018-09-23; known on 2018-11-07; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
-
Larry Sharpe will win >10% of the vote in the upcoming NY gubernatorial election. ( 33% confidence )
Created by krazemon on 2018-10-11; known on 2018-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
-
Larry Sharpe will win the NY gubernatorial election. ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2018-10-11; known on 2018-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
-
Andrew Cuomo will win the NY gubernatorial election. ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2018-10-11; known on 2018-11-10; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
-
I have exercised 260 days this year. ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-05-31; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
-
I have exercised 200 days this year. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-11; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
-
The House Will Have A Democratic Majority after the 2018 election. ( 69% confidence; 14 wagers )
Created by Shuffledrive on 2017-05-20; known on 2018-11-06; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-09.
-
Voters Not Politicians anti-gerrymandering MI constitutional amendment will be approved via ballot initiative on election day 2018 ( 37% confidence )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-02; known on 2018-11-07; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-09.
-
The Republicans will have 55 or more seats in the senate following the 2018 election. ( 50% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by iCrown on 2017-07-18; known on 2018-11-07; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-09.
-
Debbie Stabenow to win MI Senate seat in 2018 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-11-07; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-09.
-
Democrat to win MI-11 in 2018 ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-29; known on 2018-11-07; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-09.
-
Politics, US – California Proposition 12 in the November 2018 election passes. ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-10-20; known on 2018-11-07; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-11-08.
-
Democrats will narrowly take back the house in 2018. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by SeriousPod on 2018-08-02; known on 2018-11-07; judged right by SeriousPod on 2018-11-07.
-
23 or more US senators will be women by the end of January 2019 ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukefreeman on 2018-08-30; known on 2019-01-31; judged right by lukefreeman on 2019-01-31.
-
23 or more US senators will be women by the end of January 2019 ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukefreeman on 2018-08-30; known on 2019-01-31; judged right by lukefreeman on 2019-01-31.
-
Politics, US – Texas Will not elect a Democratic senator in 2018 ( 69% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukefreeman on 2018-09-23; known on 2018-11-07; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
-
Democrats will not take the senate in 2018 ( 63% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by SeriousPod on 2018-08-02; known on 2018-11-07; judged right by lukefreeman on 2018-11-07.
-
Democrats to gain control of US Senate in 2018 elections ( 43% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2017-12-14; known on 2018-11-07; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2018-11-07.
-
Republicans retain majorities in both the House and Senate after the 2018 mid terms ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jamesrom on 2018-03-21; known on 2018-11-07; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2018-11-07.
-
IE (not Edge) market share between 15-30% ( 70% confidence )
Created by rk on 2018-11-06; known on 2018-11-07; judged wrong by rk on 2018-11-06.
-
Tech – Simon Segars (CEO of ARM) announces that they will not be attending the Future Investment Initiative in Riyadh before 2018-10-28. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-10-20; known on 2018-10-28; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-11-05.
-
Politics, Turkey – Turkish government announces it has found at least part of the body of Jamal Khashoggi before the end of 2018-10-28 local time. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-10-20; known on 2018-10-29; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-11-05.
-
The Ebb sleep product will be available to easily buy within the next 6 months. ( 40% confidence )
Created by dnti808 on 2018-05-03; known on 2018-11-03; judged wrong by dnti808 on 2018-11-03.
-
US, Sports – A team from the American League wins the 2018 World Series. ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-08; known on 2018-11-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-02.