Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 52% | 70% | 74% | 67% | 85% | 98% | |
Sample Size | 94 | 50 | 53 | 79 | 294 | 46 | 616 |
Displaying all predictions made by two2thehead. Filter by:
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aliens invade earth in 2023 ( 0% confidence; 21 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-12; known on 2023-12-31.
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Elon Musk goes full Howard Hughes within five years ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-06-05; known on 2027-06-05; judged right by adanvers on 2023-01-01.
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Johnny Depp is cast in a movie produced by a major film studio ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-06-02; known on 2024-06-02.
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There will be a total of less than 5 school shootings in 2022, according to the NBC school shooting tracker. (see: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/school-shooting-tracker-n969951=2019&how-we-count=undefined) ( 28% confidence; 10 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by adanvers on 2022-04-01; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by adanvers on 2023-01-01.
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Congress authorizes a deal to send F-16s to Poland in exchange for Poland sending Soviet-era fighter jets to Ukraine ( 29% confidence; 12 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-06; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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US to deliver Poland's MiG fighter jets to Ukraine ( 19% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-08; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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[ Geopolitics , Military ] Russia attacks Ukraine even further within 100 (one hundred) days ( 75% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2022-02-10; known on 2022-05-21; judged right by two2thehead on 2022-02-22.
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SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant will be generally considered a lab leak before 2024 ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2021-12-23; known on 2024-01-01.
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Gavin Newsom will be recalled ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-08-26; known on 2021-10-22; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-09-23.
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John McAfee faked his own death ( 4% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by XORXERY on 2021-06-24; known on 2030-04-01.
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Conditional on Egypt Flight 804 being a terrorist plot, the weak link will not be France or French airport security ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-07; known on 2021-06-16.
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Matt Gaetz (Matthew Louis Gaetz II) (born 7 May 1982) gets arrested within five (5) years ( 99% confidence )
Created by two2thehead on 2021-06-18; known on 2026-06-18.
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Alexei Navalny (Alexei Anatolievich Navalny) (born 4 June 1976) dies within five (5) years ( 67% confidence; 21 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2021-04-13; known on 2026-04-13.
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Ever Given will exit the Suez Canal on or before March 30, 2021 ( 54% confidence; 26 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-03-25; known on 2021-03-30; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-03-31.
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A Fortune 500 company (besides Tesla) within the next 3 months will announce they have bought Bitcoin ( 37% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kadavy on 2021-03-01; known on 2021-06-01; judged wrong by kadavy on 2021-06-01.
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By July 2021, China will invade Taiwan. The invasion will take longer than anticipated and as a result China will use biological weapons. The USA and EU will do nothing. ( 4% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Random on 2021-01-11; known on 2021-07-31; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-07-31.
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Bellingcat releases a report on the suspected identity of QAnon (aka Q) within five months ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2020-12-11; known on 2021-05-11; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2021-05-12.
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A vaccine will be out and at least 50M people will be vaccinated by COVID’s second birthday party (November 17th 2021) ( 90% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Liging on 2020-11-15; known on 2021-11-17; judged right by kuudes on 2021-02-20.
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Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021. ( 11% confidence; 17 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ren on 2020-11-01; known on 2021-11-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-11-01.
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A Trump-nominated Supreme Court Justice is confirmed to replace Ginsburg before the 2020 November election. ( 67% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Deepak on 2020-09-19; known on 2020-11-04.
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Republican remains Senate majority after 2020 election ( 51% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-09-24; known on 2020-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-09.
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Politics, Belarus – Lukashenko is not president anymore by end of November 2020 ( 9% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NickN on 2020-08-17; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-12-01.
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[Geopolitics , Belarus , Russia] Little Green Men (or equivalent) shows up in Belarus within 1 (one) month. ( 39% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2020-08-15; known on 2020-09-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2020-09-18.
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firefox will add back built-in support for RSS feeds by 2025 ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by finback on 2020-08-14; known on 2025-01-01.
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[US politics] Both the presidential and VP nominees for the Democratic party to be women ( 10% confidence; 23 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-09; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
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North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020 ( 5% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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[ Law Enforcement, Celebrity, Musician ] Tekashi69 (AKA Tekashi 6ix9ine) (Daniel Hernandez) (born May 8, 1996) to have an act of murder or attempted murder committed against him ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2020-05-10; known on 2025-05-11.
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[Statistics, Culture] For the next calendar year, starting 2021 to 2022, there will be a statistically significant drop in the number of children named 'Corona' ( 55% confidence; 6 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2020-04-24; known on 2025-01-01.
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[Geopolitics] Venezuelan regime change (defined as Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) (born 23 November 1962) not being President of Venezuela) within one year ( 23% confidence; 23 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2020-04-03; known on 2021-04-03; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2021-04-04.
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Face masks as fashion accessoir becomes a thing this year ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-03-25; known on 2020-12-30; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-01.
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More than 1000 Corona deaths in the Netherlands in March ( 36% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Stucwerk on 2020-03-20; known on 2020-04-01; judged right by Stucwerk on 2020-03-31.
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Politics – Seven day “reduction in violence” starting 2020-02-21 between the Taliban and US is considered to have held by both parties. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-22; known on 2020-02-29; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-03-01.
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President Trump will win the 2020 Election. ( 54% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by meganwhalen20 on 2019-11-11; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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[Cato: The number of predictions in December 2019 by Cato to be exactly] 13 or more ( 64% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-11-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-07.
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[Onision (Gregory Daniel Jackson) (born November 11, 1985) gets] arrested within five (5) years ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2019-09-29; known on 2024-09-29.
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[Onision (Gregory Daniel Jackson) (born November 11, 1985) gets] accused of sexual harassment or sexual assault by at least one woman within five (5) years ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2019-09-29; known on 2024-09-29.
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[Alan Dershowitz (Alan Morton Dershowitz) (born September 1, 1938) gets ] arrested within five (5) years ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2019-07-22; known on 2024-07-22.
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[Alan Dershowitz (Alan Morton Dershowitz) (born September 1, 1938) gets ] accused of sexual harassment or sexual assault by at least one woman within five (5) years ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2019-07-22; known on 2024-07-22.
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[Les Wexner (Leslie H. Wexner) (born September 8, 1937) gets] accused of sexual harassment or sexual assault by at least one woman within five (5) years ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2019-07-19; known on 2024-07-19.
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[Les Wexner (Leslie H. Wexner) (born September 8, 1937) gets] arrested within five (5) years ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2019-07-19; known on 2024-07-19.
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Trump wins a second term in office ( 48% confidence; 29 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-06-05; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by avi on 2020-11-07.
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[US politics] House of Representatives to vote on Trump impeachment articles before 2020-05-09 ( 59% confidence; 20 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2020-05-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-19.
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Scott Alexander will be arrested by the FBI, because of his spiral (NAMBLA) medallion. However, gwern will smuggle in equipment to his prison cell and he will escape. In the end they will marry. ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by deleteyourbrain on 2019-04-29; known on 2025-04-28.
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Donald Trump Jr. (Donald John Trump Jr.) (born December 31, 1977) has more than five children that he admits paternity of within ten (10) years ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2019-03-06; known on 2029-03-06.
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[Politics] Andrew Yang to be a guest on a major American late-night talk show before April 2019 EOM ( 36% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-05-01; judged wrong by amadeu on 2019-04-30.
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Alexander Acosta (Rene Alexander Acosta) will not be the United States Secretary of Labor before the end of 2019 ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2019-02-23; known on 2020-01-05; judged right by two2thehead on 2019-07-12.
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The US government shutdown will end before March 1, 2019. ( 78% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-05; known on 2019-03-01; judged right by amadeu on 2019-01-25.
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All charges against Meng Wanzhou to be dropped in Q1 2019. ( 19% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-04; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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[Gaydar] Saoirse Ronan (Saoirse Una Ronan) comes out as queer ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2018-12-21; known on 2068-12-22.
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[Gaydar] KJ Apa (Keneti James Fitzgerald “KJ” Apa) comes out as queer ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2018-10-31; known on 2068-11-01.
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Taiwan will declare independence in 2018. ( 1% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un will meet in 2018. ( 78% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by avi on 2018-06-12.
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Technology – The price of a bitcoin is over $10,000 at the end of 2018. ( 26% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
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Trump is president at years end ( 91% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
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World War 3 to begin in 2018. (Formal war involving at least three large, developed nations, with some on separate sides). ( 0% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-04-16; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2019-01-01.
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Allison Mack (actress) gets arrested within two years ( 55% confidence; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2018-03-29; known on 2020-03-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2018-06-25.
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“Bitcoin will be the world’s ‘single currency’ in 10 years” ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2018-03-21; known on 2028-03-21; judged unknown by Bruno Parga on 2018-04-09.
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Leslie Roy “Les” Moonves is accused of sexual harassment/assault by at least one woman ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2018-02-11; known on 2020-02-11; judged right by two2thehead on 2018-07-28.
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Politics, US – John Kelly is White House Chief of Staff through the end of February 2018. ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-02-10; known on 2018-03-01; judged right by ccokeefe on 2018-03-01.
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GLAAD poll suggesting that LGBQ acceptance is down will mostly not be borne out by further research. ( 81% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2020-01-01.
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Hillary Clinton is indicted by the end of 2018 ( 3% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2019-01-01.
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Paul Nehlen is banned or suspended from twitter (temporary or permanent either way) ( 65% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-12-07; known on 2018-06-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2018-01-31.
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The United States Senate Alabama election will be won by Roy Moore ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-12-04; known on 2017-12-25; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-12-13.
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Roy Moore to win senate special election ( 65% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2017-11-27; known on 2017-12-15; judged wrong by objclone on 2017-12-13.
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Roy Stewart Moore drops out of the Alabama senate race ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-11-13; known on 2018-01-05; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-12-13.
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Hillary Clinton will be indicted for the sale of Uranium to Russia ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Gibs on 2017-11-12; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2018-07-02.
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We will go to war with North Korea ( 17% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Gibs on 2017-11-12; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by futurulus on 2018-07-01.
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Politics, US – Roy Moore steps down prior to the special election to fill Jeff Sessions' former senate seat. ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-11-11; known on 2017-12-13; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-12-13.
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Michael Bay is accused of sexual harassment/assault by at least one woman ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-11-06; known on 2019-11-06; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2019-11-08.
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James Cameron is accused of sexual harassment/assault by at least one woman. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-11-01; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2019-11-08.
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Within twenty (20) years there will be an option of seeing whether a Prediction Book user is banned or not ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-10-21; known on 2037-10-21.
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Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence ( 3% confidence; 22 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-12; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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Trump decertifies Iran nuclear deal ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-10-12; known on 2017-11-11; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-10-14.
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Donald Trump ends the NSA by executive order & creates a program to ensure secure communications for everyone in the world ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-11; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Trump comments about Eminem's rap about him within thirty days ( 42% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-10-11; known on 2017-11-10; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-11-10.
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Conditional on Jeremy Bentham's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of being on the autistic spectrum/having aspergers. ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-10-05; known on 2067-10-05.
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Ecuador kicks Julian Assange out from their London embassy ( 76% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-10-01; known on 2022-10-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2019-04-11.
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Conditional on Scott Adams's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of having schizophrenia/being schizophrenic ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-28; known on 2067-09-28.
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Tom Price (Thomas Edmunds Price) will not be the Health and Human Services Secretary before the end of 2017 ( 51% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-27; known on 2018-01-05; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-09-29.
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North Korea will test (or attempt to test) a nuclear bomb (any yield, any method of delivery) between 24th Sept 2017 and before the end of 2017 ( 34% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-24; known on 2018-01-05; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-01-01.
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North Korea will launch (or attempt to launch) a ballistic missile (any range) between 24th Sept 2017 and before the end of 2017 ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-24; known on 2018-01-05; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-11-29.
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End of the world/Nibiru collides with earth, not including(or at least beginning with) a human-made nuclear weapons catastrophe ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-21; known on 2017-09-24; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-24.
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Conditional on the psych eval being released to the public, it will show that Martin Shkreli has aspergers or is on the autistic spectrum ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-20; known on 2027-09-21.
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Conditional on Martin Shkreli's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of being on the autistic spectrum/having aspergers ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-20; known on 2067-09-21.
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Trump is being drugged by the deep state/some 3-letter-agency, and this becomes verifiable ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-15; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Sept 12 Soyuz ISS 52S launches successfully ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-12; known on 2017-09-19; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-09-13.
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[Verge iphone 8 rumours] $999+ price ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-12; known on 2017-10-12; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-09-12.
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[Verge iphone 8 rumours] New design ( 99% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-12; known on 2017-10-12; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-09-12.
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[Verge iphone 8 rumours] Face scanning camera ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-12; known on 2017-10-12; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-09-12.
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[Verge iphone 8 rumours] Wireless charging ( 89% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-12; known on 2017-10-12; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-09-12.
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iPhone X will have a 3.5mm headphone jack ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-09-12; known on 2017-09-13; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-09-12.
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[Gaydar] Dean-Charles Chapman comes out as queer ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-07; known on 2067-09-08.
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[Gaydar] Isaac Hempstead-Wright comes out as queer ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-07; known on 2067-09-08.
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North Korea will launch (or attempt to launch) a ballistic missile (any range) before the end of September 2017 ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-04; known on 2017-10-05; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-09-15.
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Keith Schiller leaves the White House before the end of 2017 ( 85% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-01; known on 2018-01-05; judged right by two2thehead on 2018-01-16.
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Bitcoin was designed by a group of mathematicians as a side project while working for the NSA. ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-31; known on 2027-01-01.
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North Korea gets nuked by January 1, 2018 ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-08-28; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Gary Cohn (Gary David Cohn) will not be the Director of the National Economic Council (NEC) before the end of 2017 ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-28; known on 2018-01-05; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-01-16.
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Flooding in texas, at least 1 casualty ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-25; known on 2017-08-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-08-27.
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Trump pardons Sheriff Joe Arpaio ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-23; known on 2018-08-23; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-08-26.