The Indiana-Michigan border radiation anomaly will turn out to be the result of a secret nuclear test.
Created by dain on 2012-06-08; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
- dain estimated 0% on 2012-06-08
- gwern said “define ‘nuclear test’. I agree a fullscale multi-megaton test is 0% since if nothing else seismographs would have revealed it, but what about, say, a subcritical test?” on 2012-06-09
- gwern judged this prediction wrong on 2013-07-01.
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