Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 100% | 100% | 75% | 100% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
Displaying all predictions made by daffodilian. Filter by:
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Bitcoin will hit the $30 mark (currently $100) sometime in the next 2 months. ( 30% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-04-01; known on 2013-07-01; judged wrong by phreeza on 2013-07-02.
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Square will go public in 5 years ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by daffodilian on 2013-03-06; known on 2018-03-06; judged right by RandomThinker on 2017-01-16.
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Neither Highlight nor Circle will get big (i.e. become a big public company or exit for > $100m) ( 90% confidence )
Created by daffodilian on 2013-03-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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Facebook will cut off API access to Hangtime if the product gets “too popular” (> 5 mil users) ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by daffodilian on 2013-03-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-07-13.
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feds take down silk road within a year ,from a undercover agent selling ids and monitoring emails ( 26% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by ledzep6551 on 2013-02-26; known on 2013-07-31; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2013-07-31.