Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 43% | 63% | 71% | 83% | 93% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 373 | 575 | 496 | 412 | 690 | 110 | 2656 |
Displaying all predictions made by gwern. Filter by:
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Conditional on nuclear weapons being used, the target will be within the Korean peninsula. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-22; known on 2050-01-01.
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Conditional on nuclear weapons being used, the target will be within Pakistan or India. ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-22; known on 2050-01-01.
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Conditional on the resumption of warfare, there will be <100,000 South Korean civilian casualties. ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-22; known on 2050-01-01.
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Apple will make Siri available to iPhone 4 users, before 2013. ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-22; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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I will complete this week's ai-class and ml-class homework. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by divad12 on 2011-10-22; known on 2011-10-24; judged right by divad12 on 2011-10-25.
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The show “Once Upon a Time” will be canceled within it's first season. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sdenheyer on 2011-10-22; known on 2012-08-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-07-05.
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The TV show “Grimm” will be canceled in it's first season. ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sdenheyer on 2011-10-22; known on 2012-08-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-07.
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The show “Pan Am” will not be canceled during it's first season. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sdenheyer on 2011-10-22; known on 2012-08-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-05.
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Konkvistador has obstructive sleep apnea ( 26% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-21; known on 2013-10-21; judged wrong by Grognor on 2014-06-15.
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Last.fm will become intertwined with Facebook, and take the spotlight away from Spotify. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JMArchitect on 2011-10-21; known on 2012-10-21; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-25.
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Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-21; known on 2070-01-01.
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My average weight (measured once everyday) for this week will be at least one pound greater than my average weight for next week. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-21; known on 2011-10-29; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-29.
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i will use prediction book tomorrow ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by divad12 on 2011-10-21; known on 2011-10-22; judged right by divad12 on 2011-10-22.
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(Note: this bet is for monitoring instrumental rationality and akrasia) I will finish my UCC law quiz and hand it in (late) tomorrow. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbarnes1 on 2011-10-21; known on 2011-10-22; judged wrong by jbarnes1 on 2011-10-22.
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I will abstain from sexual activity (porn, masturbation, orgasm) until January 31st, 2012. ( 45% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Arkanj3l on 2011-10-20; known on 2012-01-31; judged wrong by Arkanj3l on 2012-05-26.
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Someone will add at least 400 Austrian macroeconomic predictions to predictionbook. ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by siodine on 2011-10-20; known on 2011-10-20; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-21.
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I will obtain at least one Java certification before the end of June, 30th, 2012. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-20; known on 2012-06-30; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03.
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At any point before 2100, 5 billion humans (or emulated humans) are alive and physically within 3000 km of each other. ( 50% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-19; known on 2100-01-01.
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ROSAT will reenter by November 15 ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-19; known on 2011-11-15; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-23.
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I will complete Project Euler Problem #1 in the next 7 days. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-19; known on 2011-10-26; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-20.
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“Ron Paul to dropout of the 2012 Presidential race before midnight ET 05 Feb 2012” -Intrade ( 6% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-19; known on 2012-02-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-06.
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ROSAT will reenter by November 2 ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-19; known on 2011-11-03; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-23.
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No human fatalities will result from the ROSAT reentry. ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-19; known on 2011-11-30; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-23.
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My penis will temporary stop responding to sexual stimuli in three days. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Arkanj3l on 2011-10-18; known on 2011-10-21; judged wrong by Arkanj3l on 2011-10-20.
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I will “flatline”, i.e. my penis will temporary not respond to sexual stimuli due to prolonged abstinence. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Arkanj3l on 2011-10-18; known on 2011-10-23; judged wrong by Arkanj3l on 2011-10-20.
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GJP: #1021 Will the expansion of the European bailout fund be ratified by all 17 Eurozone nations before 1 November 2011? ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-11-02; judged right by gwern on 2011-10-18.
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The U.S. economy will not be back to 6% or less unemployment until 2018. ( 60% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2011-10-18; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2015-03-07.
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Apple (AAPL) will buy Vimeo. ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Nieskens on 2011-10-17; known on 2012-12-16; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-16.
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Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025 ( 29% confidence; 13 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-17; known on 2025-01-01.
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Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2019 ( 15% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-17; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2019-01-01.
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Fobos-Grunt will successfully launch and return to Earth by March 1, 2020 ( 47% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2020-03-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-03.
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Fobos-Grunt will launch successfully by December 25, 2011. ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2011-12-25; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-03.
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By 2034 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125. ( 38% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2034-01-01.
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By 2075 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2075-01-01.
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By 2065 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2065-01-01.
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By 2026 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125. ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2026-01-01.
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By 2055 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2055-01-01.
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By 2055 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2055-01-01.
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By 2045 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2045-01-01.
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By 2035 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ( 4% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2035-01-01.
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Google Code Search or an equivalent/better successor product from Google will be publicly accessible on 2012-02-15 UTC ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-15; known on 2012-02-15; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-02-28.
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By 2045 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ( 38% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2045-01-01.
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By 2035 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2035-01-01; judged unknown by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
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By 2025 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ( 7% confidence; 17 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2025-01-01; judged unknown by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
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Google Knol will be shutdown in 2016 ( 5% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-22.
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Google Knol will be shutdown in 2015 ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-13; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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Google Knol will be shutdown in 2014 ( 20% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-13; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-22.
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Google Knol will be shutdown in 2013 ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-13; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-22.
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Google Knol will be shutdown in 2012 ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-11-22.
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Google Knol will be shutdown in 2011 ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-13; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-22.
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Google Knol's shutdown will leave the knols' content publicly accessible at some URL ( 90% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-23.
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Firefox's latest stable version number will at least double in 2012 ( 26% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by slikts on 2011-10-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by stephenh on 2012-12-13.
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Hacknotifier.com will get >10k visits in the next 30 days. ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by rahul on 2011-10-11; known on 2011-11-10; judged right by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-11-09.
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Chrome will ship with the initial release of Android “Ice Cream Sandwich” ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-12; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-01.
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The initial release of Windows Server 8 (or whatever it's renamed to) will ship with a filesystem that writes and verifies checksums for data integrity purposes ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 117 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-12; known on 2012-12-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-12-03.
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Chrome will ship with the first public release of Android “Jelly Bean” (or whatever the major version after “Ice Cream Sandwich” is called) ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-12; known on 2012-12-01; judged right by ygert on 2012-12-27.
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GJP: #1023 Will former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko be found guilty on any charges in a Ukrainian court before 1 November 2011? ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-11-02; judged right by gwern on 2011-10-12.
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My Modalert will arrive day after tomorrow. ( 33% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-12; known on 2011-10-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-14.
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My Modalert will arrive tomorrow. ( 33% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-12; known on 2011-10-14; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-13.
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My Modalert will arrive today. ( 25% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-12; known on 2011-10-13; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-13.
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Season 2 of Panty & Stocking With Garterbelt will be announced. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-12; known on 2012-10-12; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-12.
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BMNDR will nontrivially improve my study habits by October 31st. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Codyz on 2011-10-12; known on 2011-10-31; judged wrong by Codyz on 2011-11-04.
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GiveWell will accept me as a volunteer. ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-06; known on 2011-10-13; judged right by gwern on 2011-10-11.
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The PredictionBook Wikipedia article will be deleted within 2 years. ( 91% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-11; known on 2013-10-11; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-12.
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The PredictionBook Wikipedia article will be deleted within 1 year. ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-11; known on 2012-10-11; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-12.
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Average global temperature will be higher for 2012 than 2011. ( 57% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by simplicio on 2013-03-13.
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Average global temperature will be higher for 2011 than 2010. ( 32% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-14.
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“S&P will announce before 1 July 2013 a downgrade of its France sovereign rating.” ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11; known on 2013-07-01; judged right by eagleclaw6 on 2013-11-20.
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“Kevin Rudd will depart as Australian Minister of Foreign Affairs before 1 July 2012.” ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2012-06-09.
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The Prediction Book Wikipedia page will be deleted within a month. ( 60% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-11; known on 2011-11-11; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-10-12.
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The Prediction Book Wikipedia page will be tagged for deletion or deleted within 2 weeks. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-11; known on 2011-10-26; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-12.
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The St Louis Cardinals will win the World Series ( 47% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Codyz on 2011-10-11; known on 2011-10-31; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-29.
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The world will exist on 2012-12-22 (day after the widely hyped end) ( 99% confidence; 43 wagers; 21 comments )
Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-22; judged right by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
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In the Ontario (Canada) legislature, the Liberal minority will form the government, and as of 2012-12-21, they will still have the confidence of the House. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-21; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-27.
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As of 2012-12-21, the OPERA neutrino anomaly at CERN will not have been reproduced by anyone, anywhere. ( 87% confidence; 14 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-21; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-18.
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Consensus will be that Koomey's Law no longer applies in 25 years. ( 56% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-10; known on 2036-10-10.
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Satoshi Nakamoto is just Michael Clear and this is known before 2060 ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-10; known on 2060-01-01.
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Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060 ( 13% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-10; known on 2060-01-01.
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GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1016: Will PM Donald Tusk's Civic Platform Party win more seats than any other party in the October 2011 Polish parliamentary elections? ( 55% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-10-11; judged right by gwern on 2011-10-10.
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Third-party candidates will take at least 15% of the popular votes in the 2012 US presidential election. ( 26% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2011-10-09; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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Before 2013, a new version of NetHack (with version number > 3.4.3) will be available on nethack.org ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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I will have completed a PhD degree in Electrical Engineering by the end of 2014. ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2011-10-09; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2014-12-31.
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By 1st July 2012, I will have submitted at least 2 technical papers to peer-reviewed journals. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2011-10-09; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2012-07-01.
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By november 8th, I will have submitted a (new) graduate school application. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2011-10-09; known on 2011-11-08; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2011-11-05.
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CERN Faster than light neutrinos will be confirmed. and there will be new unified theories expanding Einstein's general relativity theory with a limit on some other measure rather than speed of light. ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by anandjeyahar on 2011-10-09; known on 2026-10-09; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-08-31.
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Apple smartphones will have under 30% US market share at the end of 2012 ( 70% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2011-10-09; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.
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I will be able to earn a reliable living off writing and possible start-ups that I'm involved in by the end of 2013. ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Kaj_Sotala on 2011-10-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Kaj_Sotala on 2014-01-01.
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I will have completed a Master of Science degree in Computer Science by the end of 2013. ( 47% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Kaj_Sotala on 2011-10-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Kaj_Sotala on 2013-12-17.
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By 2012-10-01, I will have written a book of fiction that has at least 50,000 words and has been read by at least 50 people. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Kaj_Sotala on 2011-10-08; known on 2012-10-01; judged wrong by Kaj_Sotala on 2012-10-01.
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Andrea Rossi's 1 MW plant based on his energy catalyzer invention will not succeed within a year. ( 96% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Kaj_Sotala on 2011-10-08; known on 2012-10-08; judged right by gwern on 2012-10-08.
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GJP: '#1022 Will the South African government grant the Dalai Lama a visa before 7 October 2011?' ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-10-08; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-08.
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The webcomic Angels 2200 will have a new full page update before the end of October. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by beo_shaffer on 2011-10-08; known on 2011-11-01; judged wrong by beo_shaffer on 2011-11-01.
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“About 85% of the oldest-lived companies listed have websites. I bet the ones that will fail in the next 5 years will be in the 15% that don’t have a website in 2008.” —Kevin Kelly ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-08; known on 2013-06-13; judged right by gwern on 2013-07-05.
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“I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.” —chinapatriot ( 10% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2020-01-01.
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“I predict that by 2020 Nike will be the only remaining sneaker company” —Whutsiznaim ( 6% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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“No American Soap Operas by 2015” —Ken ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-01.
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“. The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form.” —Dan King ( 11% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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“I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.” ( 9% confidence; 26 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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the Occupy Wall Street protest will begin suffering from communicable diseases and this cause the authorities to crack down and remove them all. ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-04-01.
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'I predict…a major earthquake, magnitude seven or more will happen within twenty kilometers of a line from nagano city, nagano to matsudo, chiba' ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2011-10-13; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-13.