Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 56% | 87% | 66% | 75% | 83% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 9 | 15 | 29 | 12 | 29 | 0 | 94 |
Displaying all predictions made by azax1. Filter by:
-
Emmanuel Macron will be elected the next President of France. ( 77% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-23; known on 2017-05-08; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-05-07.
-
The only thing in Malocker is the empty, washed cookie container. ( 70% confidence )
Created by azax1 on 2017-02-22; known on 2017-02-22; judged wrong by azax1 on 2017-02-22.
-
I will go to the gym 30 more times this semester. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by azax1 on 2017-02-14; known on 2017-05-25; judged wrong by azax1 on 2017-05-25.
-
I made top 200 on the Putnam. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by azax1 on 2016-12-06; known on 2017-04-02; judged wrong by azax1 on 2017-04-29.
-
Median score on the Putnam this year is >= 5. ( 60% confidence )
Created by azax1 on 2016-12-04; known on 2017-03-31; judged wrong by azax1 on 2017-04-29.
-
I got a perfect score on my algo prelim. ( 66% confidence )
Created by azax1 on 2016-04-19; known on 2016-04-19; judged right by azax1 on 2016-04-19.
-
Hillary Clinton Wins New York Democratic Primary 2016 ( 71% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-05; known on 2016-04-20; judged right by jesselevine on 2016-04-20.
-
I will run a 25:00 5k (treadmill) on or before May 24, 2016. ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by azax1 on 2016-02-28; known on 2016-05-24; judged wrong by azax1 on 2016-05-29.
-
Wizards of the Coast will announce a new “From the Vault” Magic set on Monday, February 29th. ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-28; known on 2016-02-29; judged right by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-29.
-
At the end of this semester, I will think I have felt happy for most of it. ( 65% confidence )
Created by azax1 on 2016-02-17; known on 2016-06-01; judged right by azax1 on 2016-06-01.
-
I will not get a second interview with my most recent interviewers. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by azax1 on 2016-02-16; known on 2016-02-23; judged right by azax1 on 2016-02-24.
-
Hillary Clinton will be elected president. ( 61% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by taylorcp on 2016-01-02; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
-
I scored within 5% of an 80% on my physics prelim. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by azax1 on 2015-10-09; known on 2015-10-16; judged wrong by azax1 on 2015-10-22.
-
My math research this summer will result in me publishing a paper. ( 80% confidence )
Created by azax1 on 2015-06-14; known on 2015-08-01; judged wrong by azax1 on 2015-08-01.
-
If I am accepted into a college via transfer, I will transfer from Cornell. ( 15% confidence )
Created by azax1 on 2014-07-20; known on 2015-07-20.
-
I won't get the math tutor position. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by azax1 on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-05-02; judged wrong by azax1 on 2015-04-29.
-
The Emory REU will reject me. ( 80% confidence )
Created by azax1 on 2015-02-16; known on 2015-02-23; judged right by azax1 on 2015-04-29.
-
The Duluth REU will reject me. ( 60% confidence )
Created by azax1 on 2015-02-16; known on 2015-02-23; judged right by azax1 on 2015-02-16.
-
The SMALL REU will reject me. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by azax1 on 2015-02-13; known on 2015-02-14; judged right by azax1 on 2015-03-11.
-
HP MoR: We will learn that the True Patronus by itself can block the Killing Curse, no matter who casts each spell. ( 46% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by 75th on 2013-08-13; known on 2015-07-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.
-
HP MoR: Bacon's diary will turn out to be just a diary. ( 56% confidence; 19 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-02-01; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-03.
-
Aleksa is my secret santa. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by azax1 on 2014-12-10; known on 2014-12-17; judged right by azax1 on 2014-12-18.
-
HPMOR: By the end of the story, it will turn out that the troll actually killed Hermione. ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Mathias Zaman on 2014-11-19; known on 2015-04-15; judged right by Mathias Zaman on 2015-03-11.
-
I will get one of my top four choices of freshman writing seminar. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by azax1 on 2014-07-20; known on 2014-08-29; judged right by azax1 on 2014-08-04.
-
I will get one of my top three choices of freshman writing seminar. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by azax1 on 2014-07-20; known on 2014-08-29; judged right by azax1 on 2014-08-04.
-
I will get one of my top two choices of freshman writing seminar. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by azax1 on 2014-07-20; known on 2014-08-29; judged right by azax1 on 2014-08-04.
-
I will get my top choice for freshman writing seminar. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by azax1 on 2014-07-20; known on 2014-08-29; judged wrong by azax1 on 2014-08-04.
-
HP MoR: Harry had a hand in the disappearance of Hermione's corpse. ( 80% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-18; known on 2015-06-23; judged right by Roxolan on 2015-03-01.
-
Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black. ( 13% confidence; 24 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-17; known on 2024-06-16.
-
I will not get into college off a waitlist. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by azax1 on 2014-05-23; known on 2014-06-22; judged right by azax1 on 2014-06-09.
-
My physics final was misgraded, or the grade was entered wrong. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by azax1 on 2014-05-23; known on 2014-05-30; judged wrong by azax1 on 2014-06-09.
-
“better than 50/50 chance Kepler-186f has technological life” —Hontas Farmer ( 0% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-04-21; known on 2019-04-21; judged wrong by gwern on 2019-04-22.
-
I will get into Cornell. ( 99% confidence )
Created by azax1 on 2014-03-14; known on 2014-04-04.
-
There are unique 50 wagers on this prediction by April 1st, 2014. ( 69% confidence; 62 wagers; 71 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-04-02; judged right by rickyrich98 on 2014-04-02.
-
I will read 50 books in 2014. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by azax1 on 2014-01-31; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by azax1 on 2014-12-10.
-
I will read 35 books in 2014. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by azax1 on 2014-01-31; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by azax1 on 2014-12-10.
-
I will read 30 books in 2014. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by azax1 on 2014-01-31; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by azax1 on 2014-12-10.
-
I will read 25 books in 2014. ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by azax1 on 2014-01-31; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by azax1 on 2014-12-10.
-
HP MoR: While the diamond was just transfigured from his father's rock, the ring itself was also transfigured from Hermione's remains or part thereof, thus getting past Dumbledore's scanning for transfigured objects that Harry may have had on his person ( 42% confidence; 28 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-08; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by tedks on 2015-02-28.
-
HP MoR: the general consensus among the Wizengamot and/or the populus of magical Britain in the wake of the events of chapters 88-90 will blame Lucius Malfoy for releasing the troll in Hogwarts as a means of getting revenge on Hermione. ( 15% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-02; known on 2014-02-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-01-02.
-
HP MoR: Voldemort never intended Harry's own death on the night of his parents' death. ( 50% confidence; 21 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2011-09-04; known on 2015-11-02; judged right by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
-
HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Sirius Black ( 12% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2011-09-04; known on 2015-11-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
-
I got a score in the range 65-71/90 (inclusive) on the prelim that I will receive back tomorrow. ( 60% confidence )
Created by azax1 on 2013-10-17; known on 2013-10-18; judged right by azax1 on 2013-10-17.
-
US to launch strikes on Syria by September 21, 2013 ( 23% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-08-31; known on 2013-09-21; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-09-21.
-
[HPMOR] Dumbledore did not kill (intentionally or unintentionally) Hermione. ( 79% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by linkhyrule5 on 2013-08-16; known on 2014-07-02; judged right by linkhyrule5 on 2015-02-20.
-
Rand Paul will win the presidential election. He will go against the NSA, surveillance, drone strikes… all the “hot issues” for the new generation. Thousands of people will register as Republicans and vote for him to fight for a free Internet. ( 3% confidence; 21 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by tinatoys on 2013-08-03; known on 2016-11-06; judged wrong by jgauthier on 2016-11-07.
-
HPMOR : The Dark Lord that Harry will vanquish is not Quirrelmort but Death itself. (http://lesswrong.com/lw/b7s/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/841h) ( 55% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Osuniev on 2013-07-31; known on 2014-07-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.
-
HP MoR: The snake patronus is from Draco. ( 90% confidence; 22 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-25; known on 2013-08-21; judged right by lavalamp on 2013-08-15.
-
My favorite (fiction) book will be “Earth Abides” on January 1, 2015. ( 40% confidence )
Created by azax1 on 2013-07-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by azax1 on 2015-01-27.
-
I will have read at least 40 books during 2013. ( 1% confidence )
Created by azax1 on 2013-07-19; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by azax1 on 2014-01-01.
-
I will have read at least 35 books during 2013. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by azax1 on 2013-07-19; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by azax1 on 2014-01-01.
-
I will have read at least 30 books during 2013. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by azax1 on 2013-07-19; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by azax1 on 2014-01-01.
-
I will have read at least 25 books during 2013. ( 95% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by azax1 on 2013-07-19; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by azax1 on 2015-06-23.
-
My favorite (fiction) book will be “Earth Abides” on January 1, 2014. ( 90% confidence )
Created by azax1 on 2013-07-19; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by azax1 on 2014-01-01.
-
Dumbledore is the mastermind behind the troll plot. ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by azax1 on 2013-07-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by azax1 on 2015-03-09.
-
HP MoR: the troll attack in ch88-89 was executed by Lucius Malfoy ( 11% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Petruchio on 2013-07-11; known on 2015-06-30; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-21.
-
HP MoR: At the end of the story Hermione comes back as an alicorn princess ( 18% confidence; 21 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by Benja on 2013-07-06; known on 2014-07-06; judged right by Benja on 2015-03-15.
-
HP MoR: Snape kills Dumbledore ( 22% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Flailingjunk on 2013-07-06; known on 2015-01-02; judged wrong by ygert on 2015-03-23.
-
Astronomers will detect a planet where alcohol is thought to rain from the sky. ( 36% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-07-12; known on 2023-01-01.
-
HP MoR: the troll attack in ch88-89 was executed by Severus Snape ( 18% confidence; 23 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-06-30; known on 2015-06-30; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-03.