Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Iran to formally exit JCPOA in 2018 H1 ( 30% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-20; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2018-07-16.
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Scotland & Canada are one country on July 15th, 2018 ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-20; known on 2018-07-15; judged wrong by ioannes on 2018-07-15.
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Politics, US – Former FBI Deputy Andrew McCabe charged for lying under oath by end of June 2018. ( 24% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-02; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by max on 2018-07-11.
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Russia will win the world cup ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by max on 2018-06-15; known on 2018-07-16; judged wrong by max on 2018-07-11.
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The July 7th post on Aaron's Polls will get 40 responses or more. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by aarongertler on 2018-07-07; known on 2018-07-10; judged right by aarongertler on 2018-07-10.
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UK Police will have the ability to scan people's faces from their cars as they drive past, as they do with License plates ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-06; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2018-07-10.
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No new US tariffs on Chinese goods to go into effect on July 6. ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-06-19; known on 2018-07-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2018-07-10.
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Boris Johnson will not be sacked over recent Brexit issues within the next year. ( 65% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-03; known on 2018-10-03; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-07-09.
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Another character from the Metroid series will be added in Smash for Switch either on release or within 18 months of release. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2020-06-16; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-07-09.
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Smash for switch will support the use of Gamecube controllers, either on release or within 18 months of release. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2020-06-16; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-07-09.
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Personal, Productivity – I finish my ML course before 2018-07-09 9:00 UTC ( 90% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-07-08; known on 2018-07-09; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-07-09.
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Personal, Goals – I successfully complete Andrew Ng's Machine Learning course on Coursera by the end of the 27th of August 2018. ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-03; known on 2018-07-28; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-07-09.
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I'll be using Shiny Umbrella to reduce my typing by at least half in 3 months ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by enolan on 2018-04-08; known on 2018-07-08; judged wrong by enolan on 2018-07-09.
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Violent crime in the US is, on the whole, decreasing with time. ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by geofleur on 2018-07-04; known on 2018-07-04; judged right by geofleur on 2018-07-07.
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Politics – Trump claims that the North Koreans were not serious/deceptive about the meeting between him and Kim Jong Un at some point before the end of June 2018. ( 39% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-10; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-07-07.
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Violent crime in the US is, on the whole, decreasing with time. ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by geofleur on 2018-07-04; known on 2018-07-04; judged right by geofleur on 2018-07-07.
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My June 30th post on my personal Facebook polling group will get more than 30 responses. https://www.facebook.com/groups/293306464388556/ ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by aarongertler on 2018-06-30; known on 2018-07-04; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2018-07-07.
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Politics, EU – Article 13 of the Copyright Directive passes before the end of June 2018. ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-10; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-07-06.
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Personal – I decide to move at least 10% of my EA donation budget to an organisation in the animal welfare cause area before June 2018. ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-29; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-07-06.
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Personal – I identify as nonbinary or a woman by the end of June 2018. ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-25; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-07-06.
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Violent crime in the US is, on the whole, decreasing with time. ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by geofleur on 2018-07-04; known on 2018-07-04; judged right by geofleur on 2018-07-07.
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Hillary Clinton will be indicted for the sale of Uranium to Russia ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Gibs on 2017-11-12; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2018-07-02.
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For the rest of the month, I will spend less than $75 on food that is NOT from grocery stores. Alcohol and coffee and things like that are counted. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by dnti808 on 2018-06-14; known on 2018-07-01; judged right by dnti808 on 2018-07-02.
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The Topps Company will keep the Shadowrun license until at least July 1st, 2018 ( 90% confidence )
Created by DaFranker on 2016-11-30; known on 2018-07-02; judged right by DaFranker on 2018-07-02.
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We will go to war with North Korea ( 17% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Gibs on 2017-11-12; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by futurulus on 2018-07-01.
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My relationship with L. will still be ongoing as of the end of June 2018 ( 46% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by imaxwell on 2018-01-02; known on 2018-06-30; judged right by imaxwell on 2018-06-30.
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Akshat Shrivastava will drop out of the University of Washington ( 14% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-06; known on 2018-06-30; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-06-30.
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Germany will win the 2018 FIFA World Cup. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ldor_11 on 2018-06-18; known on 2018-07-15; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2018-06-29.
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Politics, UK – Arrests made in connection to an investigation into the Grenfell Tower fire before 15th of June 2018. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-15; known on 2018-06-15; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-06-25.
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Tech – Apple announces a system for developing applications working on both macOS and iOS at WWDC. ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-12; known on 2018-06-10; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-06-25.
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Tech – Apple announces multi-user FaceTime call support at WWDC in 2018. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-12; known on 2018-06-10; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-06-25.
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Tech – Apple announces sleep tracking support for watchOS at WWDC in 2018. ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-12; known on 2018-06-10; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-06-25.
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Tech – TSB has restored online banking access to all its customers by end of 2018-06-10. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-06-10; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-06-25.
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Allison Mack (actress) gets arrested within two years ( 55% confidence; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2018-03-29; known on 2020-03-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2018-06-25.
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I will still be using NixOS in three months ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by enolan on 2018-03-23; known on 2018-06-23; judged right by enolan on 2018-06-24.
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The FOURIER trial of a PSCK9 inhibitor will not show a statistically significant improvement in its primary endpoint. ( 90% confidence )
Created by James Babcock on 2015-06-24; known on 2018-06-16; judged wrong by James Babcock on 2018-06-23.
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OPEC will vote to increase oil production on June 22. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2018-06-19; known on 2018-06-23; judged right by Cato on 2018-06-23.
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Donald Trump to issue Executive Order ending separation of children from their families at the border by Monday, June 25 ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-06-20; known on 2018-06-26; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-06-22.
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Donald Trump to issue Executive Order ending separation of children from their families at the border by Monday, June 25 ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-06-20; known on 2018-06-26; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-06-22.
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For the rest of the month, I will spend less than $75 on food that is NOT from grocery stores. Alcohol and coffee and things like that are counted. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by dnti808 on 2018-06-14; known on 2018-07-01; judged right by dnti808 on 2018-07-02.
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For the rest of the month, I will spend less than $75 on food that is NOT from grocery stores. Alcohol and coffee and things like that are counted. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by dnti808 on 2018-06-14; known on 2018-07-01; judged right by dnti808 on 2018-07-02.
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If I buy a new laptop during the next 3 weeks, then I will be glad that I've bought it in a year ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-18; known on 2018-06-17; judged right by crabman on 2018-06-18.
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A new book in the Song of Ice and Fire series will come out before 2018-06-18 #no_research ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2018-06-18; judged right by crabman on 2018-06-18.
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Germany to beat Mexico June 17 ( 75% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-20; known on 2018-06-18; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-06-17.
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Personal – I will be free to go to the movies on Saturday 16 June. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by moyamo on 2018-06-11; known on 2018-06-17; judged right by moyamo on 2018-06-17.
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“Avengers: Infinity War” will make at least $2b worldwide in box office revenue by the end of June. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-07-01; judged right by avi on 2018-06-17.
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Hilary Clinton goes to jail ( 10% confidence; 21 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by cjbeyer on 2016-11-16; known on 2018-06-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-06-16.
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In the 2018 NBA Playoffs, Golden State will beat Cleveland. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by davatk on 2018-06-01; known on 2018-06-18; judged right by davatk on 2018-06-16.
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I think the Warriors will win the NBA Finals ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Scolyke on 2018-04-08; known on 2018-06-16; judged right by davatk on 2018-06-16.
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By the end of next year, the RP 2018-2019 Plan will be completed exactly as it is currently published with no significant revisions or changed deliverable dates ( 1% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-04-27; known on 2019-05-30; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2018-06-15.