Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 39% | 66% | 61% | 81% | 77% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 23 | 29 | 23 | 16 | 13 | 2 | 106 |
Displaying all predictions made by InquilineKea. Filter by:
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Biden to be diagnosed with dementia sometime by 2030 ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-02; known on 2030-01-01.
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Donald Trump will die within five years. ( 22% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JohnGreer on 2020-07-25; known on 2025-07-25.
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Will John Goodenough hit age 100? ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-06; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-01-08.
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Will NYC's snowfall in 2020-2021 be below average? ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-12-01; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2022-01-04.
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Will Boston's snowfall in 2020-2021 be below average? ( 60% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-12-01; known on 2022-01-01.
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Will China officially launch a coordinated campaign to discourage meat-eating (either through coercion or incentives) by 2050? ( 60% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-12-01; known on 2051-01-01.
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Republicans hold Senate in 2020 election ( 51% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Deepak on 2020-06-11; known on 2021-01-10; judged wrong by Deepak on 2021-01-07.
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China will successfully incorporate Taiwan by 2050 ( 32% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-10-22; known on 2051-01-01.
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Trump dies of COVID-19 ( 6% confidence; 34 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by technillogue on 2020-10-02; known on 2021-01-22; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election ( 45% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-28; known on 2025-01-01.
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Will bitcoin ever go below 10,000 again after August 2020? ( 91% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-27; known on 2099-01-01.
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Anthony Fauci will become TIME magazine's person of the year 2020 ( 22% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-25; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2021-01-01.
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There will be a magnitude 7+ earthquake in SF bay area between 2020 and 2030 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.
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Will Boston even see an annual temperature below its long-term average temperature of 51.5 degrees past the year of 2020? ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-11; known on 2099-01-01.
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Will Denver even see an annual temperature below its long-term average temperature of 50.4 degrees past the year of 2020? ( 55% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-11; known on 2099-01-01.
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Chen Ning Yang will die before Tsung Dao Lee ( 55% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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Harvard University will have in-person classes for Spring 2021 ( 47% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-03; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2021-10-13.
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Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-21; known on 2029-01-01.
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Koko the gorilla to die before 2020 ( 55% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-16; known on 2021-01-02.
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Boston will have its warmest July ever in 2020 ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by srconstantin on 2023-03-13.
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gwern will get married by 2090 ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-20; known on 2090-01-01.
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Twitter to finally allow ppl to autoorganize tweets into folders by 2040 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-15; known on 2041-01-01.
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easy autotranscriptions of mp3's into text files will become commonplace by 2035 ( 35% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-15; known on 2036-01-01.
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Trump wins 2020 election ( 38% confidence; 21 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Deepak on 2020-06-11; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-11-07.
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US will have one of the hottest 3 summers in Summer 2020 ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2020-10-01.
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Will Issa Rice become a wizard? ( 60% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2031-01-01.
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Will Adam D'Angelo become a father? ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2099-01-01.
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Will Sirocco the kakapo become a father? ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2099-01-01.
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Will Sirocco the kakapo die before 2030? ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2031-01-01.
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Ralph Nader will hit age 100 ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2035-01-01.
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There will be more kakapo in 2030 than in 2020 ( 80% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2031-01-01.
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Jimmy Carter to become a centenarian ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2025-01-01.
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Tezos to surpass Ada/Cardano in marketcap at end of 2023 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2024-01-01.
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Harvard to reopen for fall 2020 ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2020-08-01.
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Will Columbia University resume in-person classes for Fall 2020? ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2020-09-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2021-10-13.
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Minnesota to break the longest Democrat-voting streak by 2030 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-03; known on 2031-01-01.
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Ada/Cardano to go above $1 by 2025 ( 60% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-02; known on 2026-01-01.
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Trump to be diagnosed with dementia sometime by 2030 ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-02; known on 2031-01-01.
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[Biden's VP pick will be] Amy Klobuchar ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2020-05-22; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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Bitcoin will have gone past $12,000 in the next three months. ( 36% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JohnGreer on 2020-05-13; known on 2020-08-13; judged right by JohnGreer on 2020-08-11.
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Trump wins the 2020 election. ( 41% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by azatris on 2020-04-18; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-07.
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Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020 ( 28% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sjy on 2020-03-22; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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Trump wins a second term in office ( 48% confidence; 29 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-06-05; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by avi on 2020-11-07.
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Next term there will be a democratic president in America ( 73% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-11-30; known on 2020-12-04; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-12-04.
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Bitcoin: trades above 10k USD at GDAX at some point before the end of the year. ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-10-20; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-11-29.
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Vipul will get married before he dies ( 31% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-03-11; known on 3001-01-01.
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Slack to allow unpaid slacks to view messages older than 10,000 messages old sometime before 2020 ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2017-02-07; known on 2021-01-01.
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Marijuana will be rescheduled to a Schedule II drug by 2020 ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-07.
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Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020 ( 9% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-29; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2021-01-01.
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Computer Science to remain Harvard's most popular undergraduate major in 2020 ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2021-01-01.
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MIT Course 6 (EECS) to still be MIT's most popular major by 2020 ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2021-01-01.
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SNPs to explain at least 5% of the variability for autism will be identified by 2020 ( 30% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2021-01-01.
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“age of onset of 12 years” will be removed from DSM-V diagnosis criteria for ADD/ADHD by the time DSM-VI comes out ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2025-01-01.
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Halflife 3 will be VR-based (conditional on HL3 being released) ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2021-01-01.
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Civ 6 will receive higher ratings on metacritic than Civ 5 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2018-01-01.
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The three “Deep South” states — Paraná, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul – to secede from Brazil sometime before 2030 ( 24% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2031-01-01.
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Yoshua Bengio to eventually cash out into private industry (at least once) ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2040-01-01.
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HeavenGames to last to (at least) 2020 ( 60% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2021-01-01.
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GTA V to be on sale for under $30 on any day during 2016 ( 51% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-31.
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Starcraft 2: Heart of the Swarm to be on sale for under $20 on any day during 2016 ( 55% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2017-01-01.
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Age of Empires II HD: The African Kingdoms will be on sale for under $3 on any day during 2016 ( 55% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2017-01-01.
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cannabinoids to be demonstrated to increase lifespan in at least one model organism by 2025 ( 60% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2026-01-01.
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parabiosis will be demonstrated to increase average human lifespan ( 45% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2025-01-01.
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Bioviva's Liz Parrish to have demonstrated convincing evidence of age reversal with gene therapy ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2040-01-01.
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rapamycin to be demonstrated to increase average lifespan in dogs by 2026 ( 70% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2027-01-01.
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GDF-11 to be demonstrated to convincingly increase lifespan by 2025 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2026-01-01.
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NYC will have at least 1 100-degree day in 2016 ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-01-17.
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Boston will have at least 1 100-degree day in 2016 ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2017-01-01.
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Ed Boyden will win the Nobel Prize (in any category) ( 44% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2066-01-01.
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George Church to win the Nobel Prize (in any category) ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2045-01-01.
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Thiel Fellowship will still run in 2020 ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2021-01-01.
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2017 to be the warmest year ever ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2018-02-06.
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2016 to be the warmest year ever ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2017-01-18.
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A democrat wins New York in the 2016 general presidential election. ( 91% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-18; known on 2016-12-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Summer 2016 to be the warmest summer of US history ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-01-02.
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Gary Johnson to get > 5% of the vote in 2016 ( 40% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-03-11; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Donald Trump will win the Republican nomination ( 77% confidence; 18 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sole21000 on 2016-03-09; known on 2016-07-22; judged right by elephantower on 2016-07-20.
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Gender divide in 2016 election to be greater than that in 2012 ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-03-01; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by bendini on 2017-01-05.
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Canuck the Crow (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/crow-in-east-vancouver-attack-no-ordinary-bird-cyclist-discovers-1.3247899) to die in 2016 ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-02-19; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Obama will successfully appoint Scalia's appointment. ( 43% confidence; 33 wagers; 22 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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Bernie Sanders will win the Nevada primary ( 49% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by silacoid on 2016-02-13; known on 2016-02-21; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-21.
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Somerville will declare another snow emergency before March 1. ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-02-10; known on 2016-03-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-01.
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Cannabis will be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substances Act before 2023 ( 44% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2016-02-04; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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US GDP growth in 2016 lower than in 2015 ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-03-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2017-03-02.
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US recession in 2016. ( 48% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-17; known on 2017-01-18; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-18.
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Donald Trump to be the next US President. ( 26% confidence; 73 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-30; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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There will be a major blizzard in Denver in either October or November 2015 ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-09-28; known on 2016-01-01.
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Cause Prioritization Wiki to have 500 pageviews per day by end of 2016 ( 25% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-09-02; known on 2017-01-01.
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Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050 ( 29% confidence; 14 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-19; known on 2051-01-01.
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Global mass unemployment due to automation will cause large scale civil unrest that threatens global stability before 2100. ( 33% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by silacoid on 2015-08-16; known on 2100-01-01.
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Epic Systems will be the predominant source of EMRs by 2020 ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-16; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-18.
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We will be able to robustly search audio files by text by 2025 ( 78% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-16; known on 2026-01-01.
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By 2025, the half-life of a career will decrease to 5 years ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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Uber's valuation to be less than half that of its 2015 valuation by 2022 ( 30% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-09; known on 2023-01-01.
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Apple's valuation in 2025 to be less than half that of its valuation in 2015 ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-06; known on 2026-01-01.
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Genetic engineering to produce someone with an IQ over 200 by 2060 ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-06; known on 2061-01-01.
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Dire Wolves to be resurrected by 2100 ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-06; known on 2100-01-01.
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Cave Bear to be resurrected by 2100 ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-06; known on 2100-01-01.
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Woolly Mammoth to be resurrected by 2100 ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-06; known on 2100-01-01.
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SENS Foundation to reach a budget of 10 million dollars a year by 2020 (https://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/3fri9a/ask_aubrey_de_grey_anything/ctrjwxm ) ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-05; known on 2021-01-01.