Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 100% | 0% | 83% | 86% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 1 | 24 |
Displaying all predictions made by Cy Fleming. Filter by:
-
Paul Graham: Bitcoin may have been created by a government ( 6% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
-
In the 2016 US Presidential election, at least one Republican candidate will be publicly in favor of gay marriage and will be successful enough in the primary to get multiple delegates. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-04-24; known on 2016-09-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
-
BTC hits $1000 in the next 10 years ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-19; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2013-11-28.
-
The next US president (after Obama) will also be a Democrat. ( 53% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Osuniev on 2013-04-15; known on 2016-11-15; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
-
The Euro will not be dead by 2016 ( 94% confidence; 29 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by challquist on 2013-04-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
-
The United States will reach less than 5% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years. ( 48% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Cy Fleming on 2013-01-16; known on 2028-01-16; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-06-05.
-
The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years. ( 11% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Cy Fleming on 2013-01-16; known on 2028-01-16.
-
The US government will not have defaulted by the end of 2013. ( 96% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-15; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
-
By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI. ( 6% confidence; 24 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2021-01-01.
-
By the end of 2013, the total number of predictions on predictionbook.com will exceed 15,000. ( 80% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13; known on 2013-12-30; judged right by ygert on 2013-12-31.
-
Economic and social collapse in the United States will progress to a point that Barack Obama will use emergency powers in order to not cede the office of the President at the end of his second term, perhaps even cancelling elections in 2016. ie Empire ( 3% confidence; 32 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by thephilosiraptor on 2013-01-13; known on 2017-01-20; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-20.
-
Before 2015, it will be found (by a legal or governmental authority of the USA) that Aaron Swartz's death was not suicide. ( 3% confidence; 20 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-01-13; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
-
The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be >60 years old at his inauguration. ( 40% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-01-11; known on 2032-11-10.
-
Google will be selling flying cars by December 2016 ( 3% confidence; 25 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-01-10; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by neilscott on 2016-11-26.
-
Barack Obama will be assassinated in 2013 ( 1% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-01-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
-
Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable “in ten thousand years, or so” ( 19% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by sdr on 2013-01-09; known on 9999-01-01.
-
We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ( 24% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by drethelin on 2012-12-23; known on 2062-12-23.
-
Intrade's prediction will reflect Nate Silver's prediction (within 1.0% sometime during election day) in the 2016 presidential election. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cy Fleming on 2012-12-11; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by DaFranker on 2016-11-30.
-
By the end of January bond and stock markets will crash. (things my dad says) ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by drethelin on 2012-12-06; known on 2013-01-30; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2013-01-30.
-
I will study for final exams for >5 hours today ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cy Fleming on 2012-12-04; known on 2012-12-05; judged wrong by Cy Fleming on 2012-12-05.
-
I will get in >10 minutes of walking/running today ( 95% confidence )
Created by Cy Fleming on 2012-12-04; known on 2012-12-05; judged wrong by Cy Fleming on 2012-12-05.
-
I will reach base safely (reaching by way of an error counts) in at least half of my plate appearances in my softball double-header tonight. ( 82% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Cy Fleming on 2012-07-10; known on 2012-07-11; judged right by Cy Fleming on 2012-07-11.
-
Silk Road will be closed by July 1st, 2013 —BetsofBitcoin ( 19% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-25; known on 2013-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
-
A Libertarian Party candidate will receive more of the popular vote in the 2016 presidential election than the Republican candidate. ( 6% confidence; 23 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-02; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
-
The Pittsburgh Penguins will defeat the Philadelphia Flyers in 7 games in the 2012 Stanley Cup Playoffs ( 13% confidence )
Created by Cy Fleming on 2012-04-19; known on 2012-04-25; judged wrong by Cy Fleming on 2012-05-30.
-
Marijuana will be legal by 2025 ( 65% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-08; known on 2025-01-01.
-
Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ( 8% confidence; 31 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2035-01-01.
-
Either Mitt Romney or Barack Obama will win the 2012 Presidential election. ( 91% confidence; 29 wagers )
Created by HonoreDB on 2011-11-04; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.
-
90% chance of AI by 2050 —Shane Legg ( 47% confidence; 21 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2050-01-01.