Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 54% | 63% | 76% | 91% | 91% | |
Sample Size | 223 | 296 | 225 | 144 | 161 | 11 | 1060 |
Displaying all predictions made by chemotaxis101. Filter by:
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 1.25M ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-04-30.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 750k ( 75% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-04-30.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 400k ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-04-30.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 200k ( 94% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-04-30.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 100k ( 97% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-04-30.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 50k ( 99% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-04-30.
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Politics, US – Trump wins a majority of the electoral college votes before February 2021. ( 2% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-11-10; known on 2021-02-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Both GA senate races will go Republican in January ( 63% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by LukeS on 2020-11-08; known on 2021-01-15; judged wrong by LukeS on 2021-01-08.
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Trump will run for president in 2024 ( 23% confidence; 14 wagers )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-11-06; known on 2024-06-30.
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there will be a Democratic Senate at least once by 2042 ( 96% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-11-05; known on 2043-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-03-03.
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Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election ( 95% confidence; 26 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-11-04; known on 2020-12-01; judged right by Deepak on 2020-12-15.
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If Trump looses the electoral college votes, he will give up his post normally in January ( 91% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Liging on 2020-11-03; known on 2021-02-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-02-01.
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Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021. ( 11% confidence; 17 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ren on 2020-11-01; known on 2021-11-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-11-01.
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China NOT to conduct overt military action against Taiwan before 2026 ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by niconiconi on 2020-10-16; known on 2026-01-01.
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China will successfully incorporate Taiwan by 2050 ( 32% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-10-22; known on 2051-01-01.
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No further debates take place between Trump and Biden ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-10-20; known on 2020-11-05; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-10-26.
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Blue Origin's New Shepard to carry humans past Karman line (100km altitude) by April 15, 2022 ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-10-13; known on 2022-04-15; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-21.
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Spacex's SN8 will sucessfully complete its first flight and tests and come to a safe landing. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Reactionaryhistorian on 2020-10-10; known on 2020-11-30; judged wrong by Reactionaryhistorian on 2020-12-10.
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A Trump-nominated Supreme Court Justice is confirmed to replace Ginsburg before the 2020 November election. ( 79% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Deepak on 2020-10-07; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by Deepak on 2020-10-27.
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Critical failure of the Three Gorges Dam by 2030 ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jamesrom on 2020-09-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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Republican remains Senate majority after 2020 election ( 51% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-09-24; known on 2020-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-09.
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The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life. ( 2% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Deepak on 2020-09-16; known on 2025-09-16.
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Joe Biden won't be on the ballot in November. ( 5% confidence; 20 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2020-09-03; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-11-19.
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North Korea will be invaded in 2022 under citations of human rights and threats of nuclear war ( 2% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by limbo on 2020-09-02; known on 2022-08-13; judged wrong by limbo on 2022-08-13.
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A COVID-19 vaccine will be generally available in the UK by March 2021 ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-09-01; known on 2021-03-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-03-15.
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Mitt Romney will endorse Joe Biden before the 2020 election ( 34% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-30; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-03.
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Humans on Mars by August 30, 2045 ( 50% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-08-30; known on 2045-08-30.
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SpaceX Crew-1 will dock with the ISS before November 1 2020 ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by finback on 2020-08-28; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2020-11-01.
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California earthquake before 2021 causing 10 or more deaths ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-08-25; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today ( 45% confidence; 25 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by jamesrom on 2020-08-22; known on 2024-08-22.
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New Glenn to launch by end of 2021. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-08-14; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-01.
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Russia's virus vaccine will be successful ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by peterk13 on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-09-30; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-23.
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Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election ( 45% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-28; known on 2025-01-01.
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The Washington Redskins will change their name by the end of 2020. ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Deepak on 2020-07-08; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Deepak on 2020-07-23.
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Trump to comment on Kanye's presidential bid ( 58% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-05; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-11.
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Harvard University will have in-person classes for Spring 2021 ( 47% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-03; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2021-10-13.
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The first approved COVID19 vaccine will be Moderna's ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-06-29; known on 2022-06-29; judged wrong by srconstantin on 2020-12-18.
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There will be a “second wave” of coronavirus (increased # of daily US deaths relative to June) visible by fall 2020. ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-06-29; known on 2020-10-16; judged right by srconstantin on 2020-10-27.
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A COVID vaccine will be widely available in the USA by the end of January 2021 where widely available is defined as given to more than 10,000 people not as part of a clinical trial. ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by krazemon on 2020-06-28; known on 2021-02-01; judged right by Deepak on 2021-02-03.
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Politics, US – The New York times publishes an article containing both Scott Alexander's legal surname and a reference to SSC before the end of July 2020. ( 25% confidence; 20 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-26; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by ayegill on 2020-08-01.
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Vox Media publishes an article on one of their official news sites about the SSC-NYT affair by the end of the year ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-06-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.
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Scott Alexander will be doxed by the NYT ( 38% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by akarlin on 2020-06-23; known on 2020-07-08; judged right by 1MillionAffen on 2021-06-22.
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I will be banned on Twitter (@akarlin88) ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by akarlin on 2020-06-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by akarlin on 2021-01-01.
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Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-21; known on 2029-01-01.
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North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020 ( 5% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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COVID – Worldwide daily deaths for a day in June exceed 5800. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-06; known on 2020-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-07-04.
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Donald Trump to win reelection with at least 49 US states voting for him. ( 2% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-04; known on 2020-11-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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Humans will have landed on Mars alive by the 31-12-2027. (Landed in the sense that the vehicle/capsule in which they live, physically touches martian soil.) ( 10% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Mathieu_Putz on 2020-06-03; known on 2027-12-31; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-09.
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Business, US – By deadline, news has come out to the effect that Elon Musk's baby is not legally named “X Æ A-12”. This includes but is not limited to statements by either Elon Musk or Grimes to that effect, even if later contradicted again. ( 82% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-06; known on 2020-07-06; judged right by JohnGreer on 2020-05-25.
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Trump wins the 2020 election. ( 41% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by azatris on 2020-04-18; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-07.
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Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020 ( 28% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sjy on 2020-03-22; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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Bolsonaro manterá o mandato presidencial até o final do período para o qual foi eleito. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2019-03-28; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by chemotaxis101 on 2023-01-01.
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[Política nacional] Alguma versão da Reforma da Previdência será aprovada até o final de 2019. ( 65% confidence )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2019-03-28; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by chemotaxis101 on 2020-01-14.
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Entre os dias 11 de janeiro de 2020 e 26 de dezembro de 2020, publicarei ao menos 35 edições da minha newsletter semanal ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2020-01-04; known on 2020-12-27; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2020-12-27.
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If Joe Biden wins the 2020 democratic bid for president then Donald Trump will win the 2020 election. ( 50% confidence; 29 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by jprettner on 2019-06-28; known on 2019-08-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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Trump wins a second term in office ( 48% confidence; 29 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-06-05; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by avi on 2020-11-07.
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Andrew Yang runs as a third party candidate ( 13% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-06-03; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-11-02.
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No new American bootprints on the moon by the end of Calendar Year 2024. ( 86% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2019-06-01; known on 2025-01-01.
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Kim Jong Un to visit Seoul by 2019-10-01 ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-28; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-01.
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/r/gwern will have been banned by Reddit ( 7% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by quanticle on 2019-05-18; known on 2025-01-01.
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US & China to announce end to trade war in Q2 2019 ( 38% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-01; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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Andrew Yang will win the Democratic nomination. ( 8% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by skateboard34 on 2019-03-25; known on 2020-07-20; judged wrong by skateboard34 on 2020-03-05.
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The UK to leave the EU without a deal on 12 April ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-03-25; known on 2019-04-12; judged wrong by 6thNapoleon on 2019-04-12.
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Trump will remain president as of January 1st, 2020 ( 89% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Selentelechia on 2019-01-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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[Politics] Nicolás Maduro to resign as president of Venezuela in 2019 Q1. ( 9% confidence; 15 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-15; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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Mauricio Macri is re-elected President of Argentina ( 44% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-12-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-11-03.
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TESS will launch before the end of April (there will be no further major delays to its launch). ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-29; known on 2018-05-01; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-04-27.
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Another Soyuz Fregat stage suffers some form of failure that leads to the loss or incorrect insertion of one or more satellites in the next two years. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-22; known on 2019-03-22; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-03-22.
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Falcon Heavy to launch (successfully or not) in January 2018. ( 52% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2017-12-21; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-02.
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Brazilians will elect Geraldo Alckmin as president in 2018 ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by brunoarine on 2017-12-12; known on 2018-11-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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Public demonstration of an AI that can learn the rules of, and play at a superhuman level, most board/card games without supervision, just watching many games and being told who won, in 2018 or 2019. ( 64% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2017-12-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-01-01.
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Public demonstration of an AI that can learn the rules of, and play at a superhuman level, most board/card games without supervision, just watching many games and being told who won, in 2018. ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by HonoreDB on 2017-12-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2019-05-20.
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SLS to be cancelled outright or to launch at least once before 2025. ( 87% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2017-11-27; known on 2025-01-01.
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Falcon Heavy to launch (whether or not successful) before June 15, 2018 ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2017-11-27; known on 2018-06-16; judged right by enolan on 2018-06-08.
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[ Brazil's next president will be] Bolsonaro or someone who espouses his law and order/anti-establishment platform ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Laudano on 2017-11-25; known on 2018-10-29; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-28.
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[If Lula goes unpunished, Brazil will balkanize herself] A junta will take over after a military coup. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Laudano on 2017-11-25; known on 2027-11-25.
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[If Lula goes unpunished, Brazil will balkanize herself] The capital city will be moved elsewhere from Brasilia. ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Laudano on 2017-11-25; known on 2027-11-25.
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[Brazil's next president will be] Alckmin ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by lucasmafaldo on 2017-11-25; known on 2018-11-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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[Brazil's next president will be] Ciro Gomes ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by lucasmafaldo on 2017-11-25; known on 2018-11-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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[Brazil's next president will be] Bolsonaro ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lucasmafaldo on 2017-11-25; known on 2018-11-16; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-28.
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[Brazil's next president will be] Lula ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by lucasmafaldo on 2017-11-25; known on 2018-11-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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Bitcoin will reach USD 10k before 31/12/2017 ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Leohmarruda on 2017-11-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Athrithalix on 2017-11-29.
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We will go to war with North Korea ( 17% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Gibs on 2017-11-12; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by futurulus on 2018-07-01.
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Michael Bay is accused of sexual harassment/assault by at least one woman ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-11-06; known on 2019-11-06; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2019-11-08.
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[The Brazilian presidential election will] have neither Lula da Silva nor Jair Bolsonaro win outright, and neither will advance to the runoff ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-10-30; known on 2018-10-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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[The Brazilian presidential election will] require a runoff ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-10-30; known on 2018-10-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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[The Brazilian presidential election will] have Lula da Silva and Jair Bolsonaro in the runoff ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-10-30; known on 2018-10-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-18.
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[The Brazilian presidential election will] have a higher proportion of valid votes over registered voters than in 2014 (that was 72.8%) ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-10-30; known on 2018-10-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-09.
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[The Brazilian presidential election will] either be won by Lula da Silva in the first round or have him advance to the runoff ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-10-30; known on 2018-10-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-18.
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[The Brazilian presidential election will] have no state won by a candidate that finishes third or lower overall ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-10-30; known on 2018-10-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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[The Brazilian presidential election will] either be won by Jair Bolsonaro in the first round or have him advance to the runoff ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-10-30; known on 2018-10-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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>50% of the world population has to scan their eye(/iris) at least once per day ( 3% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-27; known on 2020-08-19; judged wrong by NickN on 2020-08-20.
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Jeremy Corbyn will become PM by 2022. ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by missbethann on 2017-10-26; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2023-01-05.
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Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022 ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by OisinMoran on 2017-10-19; known on 2022-03-27; judged wrong by OisinMoran on 2022-03-29.
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Alex Honnold will be alive 5 years from now ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by berekuk on 2017-06-07; known on 2022-06-07; judged right by chemotaxis101 on 2022-06-07.
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Head of state of a major developed country will be assassinated ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-06; known on 2022-06-06; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2022-06-07.
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Presidente interino MT será conduzido à condição de Presidente da República e exercerá seu mandato até o final. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2016-05-18; known on 2019-01-02; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-30.
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O processo de impeachment será concluído com o afastamento da presidente DR. ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2016-05-18; known on 2016-11-13; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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A democrat wins New York in the 2016 general presidential election. ( 91% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-18; known on 2016-12-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Hilary wins California democratic primary. ( 59% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-18; known on 2016-06-20; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-20.