Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 51% | 60% | 66% | 81% | 92% | 97% | |
Sample Size | 137 | 234 | 231 | 257 | 634 | 119 | 1612 |
Displaying all predictions made by PseudonymousUser. Filter by:
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I will get someone's number through meeting them in a bookshop before I leave London ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-19; known on 2015-06-10; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-06-14.
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I will get over 100 rupees in this BGO game. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-19; known on 2015-04-19; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-19.
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I will die at least once in this BGO game. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-19; known on 2015-04-19; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-19.
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I will get a double dice roll at least once in this BGO game. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-19; known on 2015-04-19; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-19.
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We will win this BGO game. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-19; known on 2015-04-19; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-19.
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I will accidentally kill Rory in this BGO game… ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-19; known on 2015-04-19; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-19.
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Everyone will have awoken by the time I get out of bed tomorrow ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-04-19; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-19.
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I will find deontology convincing as a moral theory at the end of the year. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-01-02.
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The legal status of marijuana (including medical) in the UK will undergo a substantial change ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2018-01-31.
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My diet will still be vegan or bivalvegan at the end of this year ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by RoryS on 2016-01-01.
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I will receive a message in the next hour stating how someone is happy to be friends with me. ( 5% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-04-18; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-18.
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I will be happy with the amount of revision I've done today ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-04-18; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-18.
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I will start blogging after exams ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-06-10; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-06-17.
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I'll get into an American University next year. ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Hurzek on 2015-04-18; known on 2016-09-16.
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I will finish ahead of Nathan in this game of BGO (excluding premature departure) ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-04-18; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-17.
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Someone will leave this game ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-04-18; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-17.
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Nathan will not win this game of BGO ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-04-18; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-17.
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We will this game on BGO ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-04-17.
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I will encounter a girl, whom I genuinely want to be with and we'll date and be all cute and whatnot. (by the end of this year). ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-01-01.
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I will die at least once in this BGO game. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-04-17; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-17.
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At least one person will leave in this BGO game ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-04-17; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-17.
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I will meet up with Felix in London prior to exams ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-05-06; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-01.
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I will not feed in my next league game. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-16; known on 2015-04-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-16.
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I will win this game of checkers. ( 54% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-16; known on 2015-04-16; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-16.
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I will fall asleep on the Megabus journey back to London ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-16; known on 2015-04-21; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-22.
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My sisters will be home before 4 ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-16; known on 2015-04-16; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-16.
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I will lose my lane in this game, even though I counter my opponent. ( 50% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-16; known on 2015-04-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-16.
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I will have a negative KDA in my next League of Legends match. ( 60% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-16; known on 2015-04-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-16.
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I will win my next League of Legends game. ( 50% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-16; known on 2015-04-16; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-16.
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Star Horn Royal Club will beat (absolutely destroy) Young Glory in the LCS ( 90% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15; known on 2015-04-16; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-16.
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I will wake up between 10:50am and 11:00am today. ( 50% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15; known on 2015-04-16; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-16.
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I will get to Gold Division in League of Legends before the end of season 5. ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15; known on 2015-11-30; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-12-13.
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The Bloodborne OST will be good, and have at least one (1) song I will fall in love with completely. ( 80% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15; known on 2015-04-15; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15.
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I will feel sad at the end of today because my three major private predictions will not happen. ( 100% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15; known on 2015-04-15.
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Rory will message me today asking if we want to play BGO. ( 80% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15; known on 2015-04-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15.
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I am online. Rory is online. However, he will NOT send the message first. (before the end of today). ( 70% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15; known on 2015-04-15; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15.
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Hema will insult me in some way before today ends. ( 90% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15; known on 2015-04-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15.
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Ryan will send me a YouTube Video at some point before today ends. ( 80% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15; known on 2015-04-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15.
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Quantum Uncertainty will turn me into a frog. ( 1% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15; known on 2015-04-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15.
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My Kettle will boil for 120 seconds, with 1.2 litres of water inside it. ( 12% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15; known on 2015-04-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15.
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Our game will be playable when it is supposed to be ready ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by timujin on 2015-04-14; known on 2015-06-16; judged right by timujin on 2015-06-08.
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I think in this episode of Nevermind the Buzzcocks Simon Amstell will make me laugh. ( 100% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15; known on 2015-04-15; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15.
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Of all the predictions that reveal themselves at the end of today, I will get at least 50% or more correct. (9 in total, so 4.5+) ( 50% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15; known on 2015-04-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15.
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Energy PACEMAKER will win vs AD Gaming in the LCS. ( 70% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15; known on 2015-04-15; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15.
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When I click on my YouTube tab, the song will be at 1:04. ( 30% confidence; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15; known on 2015-04-15; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15.
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By the year 2020, the band Paradise Fears will consistently receive over 1 million views on every video they upload. ( 70% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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On my way to the shops I will encounter nobody I know. ( 70% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15; known on 2015-04-15; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15.
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On my way to the shops I will not trip over. (Or on the way back for that matter). ( 90% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15; known on 2015-04-15; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15.
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I have one unread E-mail. It is from someone replying to a YouTube comment. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15; known on 2015-04-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15.
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By the year 2050, Nuclear weapons would have been abolished globally for the benefit of mankind. ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15; known on 2050-01-01.
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The stir fry will still be too hot upon checking ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-15; known on 2015-04-15.
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When I go to check my cats food bowl (now) it will NOT be empty. ( 80% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15; known on 2015-04-15; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15.
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I have made a list of 30 words (No longer than 5 characters). I have 2 minutes to memorise as many as I can. I think I can memorise at least 18. I have 2 minutes to write down as many as I can. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15; known on 2015-04-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15.
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I can whistle for a maximum duration of 20-22 seconds. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15; known on 2015-04-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15.
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I can do 22 sit ups in 30 seconds. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15; known on 2015-04-15; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15.
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I can do more than 120 clicks a minute. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15; known on 2015-04-15; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15.
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I can type more than 70 words per minute. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15; known on 2015-04-15; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15.
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I can hold my breath for longer than 30 seconds. ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15; known on 2015-04-15; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15.
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I can do 20 press ups in 10 seconds. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15; known on 2015-04-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15.
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I will not play league at all tomorrow. Even if my friends ask me to play a game. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-14; known on 2015-04-15; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15.
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When I check BBC weather the temperature for today will be anywhere between 20-22c. (In Plymouth). ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15; known on 2015-04-15; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15.
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I will win my next Pokémon battle. (Against players). ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15; known on 2015-04-15; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15.
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I can drink 3 glasses of water in less than 15 seconds. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15; known on 2015-04-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15.
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I will not receive a response from a job application at all today. ( 90% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15; known on 2015-04-15; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15.
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I will get heads on my next coin flip. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15; known on 2015-04-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15.
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A wasp will fly into my room at some point before today ends. ( 60% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15; known on 2015-04-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15.
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I will have sex in Sasha's room ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-14; known on 2015-06-15; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-06-09.
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I would have made over 100 predictions by the end of this month. ( 90% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-14; known on 2015-04-30; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-01.
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My calibration will be better than Rory's. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-14; known on 2015-04-30; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-05-01.
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I will find Rory's next sexual partner attractive. ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-14; known on 2015-10-31; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-10-18.
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I will be able to code a Random Name Generator by the end of the week. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-14; known on 2015-04-19; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-20.
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I will get a girlfriend in the next 24 hours. ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-14; known on 2015-04-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15.
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That when I wake up Earth will still exist. ( 100% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-14; known on 2015-04-15; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15.
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I will wake up at anywhere between 11:20 and 11:30 today in the morning. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-14; known on 2015-04-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15.
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I think for dinner tomorrow I will have my Mediterranean Rice. ( 20% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-14; known on 2015-04-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15.
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My parents will complain about me not having a job at any moment in the next 24 hours. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-14; known on 2015-04-16; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15.
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Lily will either 'like', or in some way acknowledge the birthday message on her wall. ( 48% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-14; known on 2015-04-15; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-16.
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By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ( 11% confidence; 13 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-12; known on 2065-01-01.
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I will be not be in a formal, romantic relationship (open relationships included) throughout 2015 ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-04-19.
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My achilles will be better (enough for me to start running) within 2 more weeks. ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-06; known on 2015-04-20; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-20.
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I will achieve a 1:1 at the end of first year university ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-01; known on 2015-07-12; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-01-21.
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I will get into the UNIQ summer school for CS. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-12; known on 2015-04-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-05-08.
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Obama signs executive order legalizing marijuana on the last day of his presidency. ( 4% confidence; 19 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by RESO on 2015-02-05; known on 2017-01-20; judged wrong by RESO on 2017-01-20.
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On this year's Less Wrong survey, at least two people will have the same public and private keys (not considering capitalization). ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-02-01.
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That my wife will give birth to a baby girl ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by woodse on 2015-01-16; known on 2015-05-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-04.
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A nuclear bomb (primary, not dirty) will be detonated, anywhere on earth, immediately killing more than 100 people, any time between 2015/1/1 and 2020/1/1. ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by brandyn on 2015-01-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-01-01.
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North Korea’s government will not collapse (whether due to revolt/civil war, or war with another country) before Dec 31, 2015. ( 93% confidence; 20 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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In 2015 there will not be any terrorist attacks in the US that kill more than 40 people. ( 85% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01.
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Vladimir Putin will be president of Russia as of 1st January 2016 ( 91% confidence; 18 wagers )
Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by btrettel on 2016-01-01.
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The Conservative Party will have the largest number of seats following the UK GE. ( 37% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-05-07; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
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No party will achieve an overall majority in the House of Commons in the May 2015 general election ( 83% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by doxievee on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-05-07; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
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HP MoR: any superintelligent or FOOMing AGI/AI will appear as a character/device in the story ( 11% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-28; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by tedks on 2015-05-01.
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HP MoR: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains James Potter ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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Scott Aaronson will not make a “tearful apology” for either Comment 171 or for any related remarks that he has made as of 9 AM December 31. ( 78% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-31; known on 2015-01-25; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-25.
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I get the job at Google ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2014-12-29; known on 2015-01-29; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2015-01-30.
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Oculus will release another development kit VR headset, consumer VR headset, or an alpha/beta consumer VR headset before 2016 ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-12-28; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-04.
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I will finish Antichamber before 2015-02-01 ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-12-25; known on 2015-02-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-02-01.
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I will be able to fix Dolphin from within Dolphin after installing it. ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-12-14; known on 2014-12-14; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-12-14.
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I will get a distinction at grade 8 ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-06-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-05-08.
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I will get a merit or above at grade 8 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-06-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-05-08.