Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 58% | 69% | 77% | 89% | 99% | |
Sample Size | 347 | 289 | 330 | 341 | 700 | 419 | 2426 |
Displaying all predictions made by holycow81. Filter by:
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< 35M coronavirus deaths ( 86% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by kjaques on 2020-03-19; known on 2020-07-31; judged right by kjaques on 2020-07-31.
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<2M coronavirus deaths. ( 25% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by kjaques on 2020-03-19; known on 2020-07-31; judged right by kjaques on 2020-07-31.
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Trump wins a second term in office ( 48% confidence; 29 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-06-05; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by avi on 2020-11-07.
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Conditional on Jeremy Bentham's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of being on the autistic spectrum/having aspergers. ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-10-05; known on 2067-10-05.
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Conditional on Scott Adams's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of having schizophrenia/being schizophrenic ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-28; known on 2067-09-28.
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The Democratic Party will run Hillary Clinton for President in the 2020 election ( 3% confidence; 17 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-01; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-02.
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Donald Trump will not be impeached or resign in his first term ( 66% confidence; 33 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Bismagician on 2017-05-18; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by CaelumCodicem on 2019-12-19.
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President Trump will resign on his 146 th day in office ( 9% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by John8128 on 2017-05-16; known on 2017-06-15; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-06-15.
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'President Mike Pence' ( 14% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-10; known on 2024-12-31.
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Donald Trump to be the next elected President of the United Stated. ( 21% confidence; 53 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-10; known on 2016-11-12; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-09.
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HP MoR: We will learn that the True Patronus by itself can block the Killing Curse, no matter who casts each spell. ( 46% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by 75th on 2013-08-13; known on 2015-07-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.
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HP MoR: Bacon's diary will turn out to be just a diary. ( 56% confidence; 19 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-02-01; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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Part or all of the removal of Lewin's videos will be reversed within 1 year. ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-10; known on 2015-12-10; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-12-11.
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There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020. ( 63% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-12-03; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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“In the next 20 years driverless cars will be a reality, there won't be any cab drivers.” Russ Roberts ( 64% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-07-11; known on 2034-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry had a hand in the disappearance of Hermione's corpse. ( 80% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-18; known on 2015-06-23; judged right by Roxolan on 2015-03-01.
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I will see somebody from Canadian Tire tomorrow. ( 48% confidence )
Created by holycow81 on 2014-06-10; known on 2014-06-11.
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I will live through the end of sophomore year. ( 99% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by cobalt on 2014-05-31; known on 2014-07-01; judged right by cobalt on 2014-06-30.
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There are unique 50 wagers on this prediction by April 1st, 2014. ( 69% confidence; 62 wagers; 71 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-04-02; judged right by rickyrich98 on 2014-04-02.
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Obama will remain President of USA at end of 2014. ( 98% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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I will read 12 books before 2015. ( 86% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-10; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-04-29.
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Within five years, Pope Francis (or a successor) makes a comment in an official or unofficial capacity that there is no literal hell. ( 11% confidence; 21 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by adbge on 2014-01-07; known on 2019-01-07; judged right by Osuniev on 2019-01-27.
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Barack Obama to attempt to run for a third term as President (either through Constitutional amendment or other method). ( 0% confidence; 41 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-24; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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HP MoR: Voldemort never intended Harry's own death on the night of his parents' death. ( 50% confidence; 21 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2011-09-04; known on 2015-11-02; judged right by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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Human drivers will be illegal on some USA roads by 2030 ( 44% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2013-09-14; known on 2030-01-01.
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No one will win Sam Harris's prize for convincing him that his book is wrong ( 87% confidence; 19 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Omid on 2013-09-01; known on 2014-11-01; judged right by Matt2000 on 2014-11-01.
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United States military to use missiles in Syria before 2014. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Omid on 2013-08-28; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by procran on 2014-01-20.
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It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ( 1% confidence; 21 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2013-08-26; known on 2028-08-26.
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Predictionbook's overall statistics will remain overconfident (Confidence > accuracy in all six buckets) by 2015. ( 82% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sdr on 2013-08-24; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by atroche on 2015-01-01.
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The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033. ( 18% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Omid on 2013-08-22; known on 2033-01-01.
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In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia. ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Omid on 2013-08-22; known on 2034-06-01.
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HPMOR: Dumbledore is Grindelwald ( 2% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dusk on 2013-08-20; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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[HPMOR] Dumbledore did not kill (intentionally or unintentionally) Hermione. ( 79% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by linkhyrule5 on 2013-08-16; known on 2014-07-02; judged right by linkhyrule5 on 2015-02-20.
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At least 5 other people will make predictions on this prediction before I'm told to judge it August 21. ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by High_Fiber_Twigs on 2013-08-13; known on 2013-08-21; judged right by procran on 2013-08-20.
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The Overdue Predictions page on PredictionBook will be modified to not display withdrawn or changed to private (by someone else) predictions by 2014. ( 36% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2013-08-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-01-01.
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Rand Paul will win the presidential election. He will go against the NSA, surveillance, drone strikes… all the “hot issues” for the new generation. Thousands of people will register as Republicans and vote for him to fight for a free Internet. ( 3% confidence; 21 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by tinatoys on 2013-08-03; known on 2016-11-06; judged wrong by jgauthier on 2016-11-07.
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Aaron Simmons will be elected President of the United States of America. ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Messias on 2013-08-01; known on 2032-11-02.
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Dumbledore is the mastermind behind the troll plot. ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by azax1 on 2013-07-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by azax1 on 2015-03-09.
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HP MoR: Professor Quirrel is manipulating Harry into getting the Philosopher's stone for him (as of ch95) ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Kurosymph on 2013-07-18; known on 2014-01-16; judged right by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: It will be revealed (either in the story or by Eliezer outside it) that it is impossible to lie in Parseltongue. ( 45% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by 75th on 2013-07-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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HP MoR: At some point, Harry will obtain the Resurrection Stone and the Elder Wand (in addition to his Cloak) to become Master of Death. ( 36% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jordan_Hoyt on 2013-07-09; known on 2015-07-01; judged right by rictic on 2015-05-16.
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HP MoR: At the end of the story Hermione comes back as an alicorn princess ( 18% confidence; 21 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by Benja on 2013-07-06; known on 2014-07-06; judged right by Benja on 2015-03-15.
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HP MoR: Snape kills Dumbledore ( 22% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Flailingjunk on 2013-07-06; known on 2015-01-02; judged wrong by ygert on 2015-03-23.
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HPMoR : ch 90 (or sooner): Harry would have to exploit the Dementor/Patronum valnerability to gain the Dark/Light Lordship. ( 27% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by mat33 on 2012-04-01; known on 2013-07-04; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-07-02.
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HP MoR: the troll attack in ch88-89 was executed by Severus Snape ( 18% confidence; 23 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-06-30; known on 2015-06-30; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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HP MoR: Hermione has or will become a magical Hogwarts ghost ( 13% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-06-30; known on 2015-06-30; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-16.
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Half-Life 3 will be announced this summer ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by alecbrooks on 2013-06-29; known on 2013-09-23; judged wrong by alecbrooks on 2013-09-23.
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Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035. ( 19% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2013-06-27; known on 2035-12-31.
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PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today – 5/31/2023 – with this individual prediction still accessible. ( 71% confidence; 29 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by FestiveBleak on 2013-05-31; known on 2023-05-31; judged right by holycow81 7 days ago.
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Segways will make a comeback before 12/31/2016 ( 29% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-24; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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xkcd #1217 will be composed primarily of a graph or diagram. ( 17% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by itaibn on 2013-05-24; known on 2013-05-27; judged wrong by itaibn on 2013-05-27.
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Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030 ( 29% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-20; known on 2030-01-01.
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Google will survive for 15 more years ( 91% confidence; 29 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-05-19; known on 2028-05-19.
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Google will survive for five more years ( 97% confidence; 38 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-05-19; known on 2018-05-19; judged right by NancyLebovitz on 2018-05-19.
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There exist infinitely many primes no more than 500,000 apart, proven by 2035 ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-05-14; known on 2035-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-06-06.
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Twin prime conjecture solved by 2020 ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-05-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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Twin prime conjecture solved by 2050 ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-05-14; known on 2050-01-01.
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Google Chrome browser will survive 5 years ( 93% confidence; 27 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Translate will survive 5 years ( 90% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-03; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Search will survive 5 years ( 98% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-03; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Project Glass will survive 5 years ( 57% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-03; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-28.
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Google+ will survive 5 more years ( 60% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Gmail will survive 5 more years ( 95% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Docs will survive 5 more years ( 85% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Blogger will survive 5 more years ( 72% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Analytics will survive 5 more years ( 92% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google AdSense will survive 5 more years. ( 96% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Gitmo will still be around by 2020 ( 46% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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4th grade SC science quiz is an actual quiz from an actual school. ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Bojidar Kojouharov on 2013-04-26; known on 2013-07-01; judged right by Bojidar Kojouharov on 2013-07-08.
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Bitcoin is exchanged at or below $2 by early July ( 2% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jach on 2013-04-03; known on 2013-07-08; judged wrong by Jach on 2013-07-08.
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By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI. ( 6% confidence; 24 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2021-01-01.
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Gangnam Style to reach 1,000,000,000 views by December 31st 2012. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bZkp7q19f0 ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Sarokrae on 2012-11-25; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by army1987 on 2012-12-21.
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Ender's Game will do worse than expected (4wk gross < HSX @ 122.6m) ( 54% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomMovie on 2012-11-19; known on 2013-12-01; judged right by Qiaochu on 2013-12-01.
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PredictionBook will have an iphone ap by June 30 2013 ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by William-Quixote on 2012-09-08; known on 2013-06-30; judged wrong by William-Quixote on 2013-07-01.
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Facebook ($FB) will buy RIM ($RIMM) ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by sucrenoir on 2012-07-02; known on 2013-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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Mubarak will have passed away by mid 2013 ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-06-07; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by holycow81 on 2013-06-09.
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HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2015. ( 58% confidence; 28 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-01-01.
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Bitcoin/USD prices: “best case, 10 bucks. Worst case, 5 bucks.” —kiba ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-31; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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World will not end on 12-21-2012. ( 91% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2012-12-21; judged right by Qiaochu on 2012-12-21.
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“Lindsay Lohan will be dead within 2 years.” ( 8% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-16; known on 2013-11-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-16.
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I will have watched every video on Khan Academy by August 2013. ( 39% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Alexander Kruel on 2011-08-17; known on 2013-08-17; judged wrong by dk on 2013-11-04.
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The Islamic Republic Will collapse in 2 years in IRan. ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by puya on 2011-06-28; known on 2013-06-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-06-30.
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No military draft in the United States before 2020. ( 90% confidence; 33 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by komponisto on 2009-10-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.