Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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The NDE out of body consciousness experiment by Dr Parnia will be entirely negative ( 70% confidence; 10 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Adam on 2008-09-22; known on 2013-04-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-11-14.
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The title of OOTS #930 will be “The” or “The Rift”. ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ygert on 2013-11-13; known on 2013-11-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-14.
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http://www.rememberthe13th.com/ NASA has made a historic discovery that will shake the entire planet. This announcement will be released to the media on November 13th, 2013. It will be a day to remember and One for the history books. Nothing world sha ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mimosomal on 2013-10-04; known on 2013-11-13; judged wrong by procran on 2013-11-13.
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I will receive at least 90% on the Discrete Math midterm from today. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by tylercurtis on 2013-10-21; known on 2013-11-11; judged right by tylercurtis on 2013-11-13.
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Fremantle will win the 2013 AFL Grand Final ( 32% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by atroche on 2013-09-18; known on 2013-09-28; judged right by atroche on 2013-11-13.
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Geelong will win the 2013 AFL Grand Final ( 21% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by atroche on 2013-09-18; known on 2013-09-28; judged right by atroche on 2013-11-13.
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Hawthorn will win the 2013 AFL Grand Final ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by atroche on 2013-09-18; known on 2013-09-28; judged right by atroche on 2013-11-13.
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Anthony Weiner will be elected mayor of New York City. ( 17% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by andrevan on 2013-04-27; known on 2013-11-16; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2013-11-13.
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I will score greater than 85% on my MAT 265 Mastery Test. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-10-22; known on 2013-10-24; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-11-11.
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At some point before 2014, 1% or more of my investment portfolio will be in Bitcoin. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-07-16; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-11-11.
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I will post something new on my blog before November. ( 45% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-10-24; known on 2013-11-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-11-11.
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The first typo is correct. ( 80% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-09; known on 2013-11-12; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-10.
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The Bills will score a touchdown on a certain drive today. ( 33% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-10; known on 2013-11-10; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-10.
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SR: the dk.onion forums will become inaccessible on or before 9 November 2013 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-05; known on 2013-11-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-11-10.
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Python SAR algorithm done by end of week 6 ( 80% confidence )
Created by Jach on 2013-10-23; known on 2013-11-08; judged wrong by Jach on 2013-11-09.
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98b6e645ddd64fd3cefb3f34de1c4b6321c690f6adb394aad68bde3511d6a5f2367a88fe91ca2b44b396c0865a98015d58a1fa4a761a88c92fad7a12b3e599d5 ( 95% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-08; known on 2013-11-10; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-09.
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Twitter stock price will exceed $35 a share on IPO day. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-11-07; known on 2013-11-08; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-11-07.
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Twitter stock price will exceed $40 a share on IPO day. ( 58% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-11-07; known on 2013-11-08; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-11-07.
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Members of the U.S. House of Representatives will form an “Occupy Caucus” with at least five members within a year after the 2012 elections. ( 27% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2013-11-06; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-06.
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The Gladwell talk is in Alumni Arena. ( 80% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-06; known on 2013-11-06; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-06.
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“The Iraqi Dinar will revalue, and reach a value of 3 Dinars per 1 U.S. dollar, or better, by November 6/2013. Currently, as of November 6/08, the exchange rate is 1176 Iraqi Dinars, per U.S. dollar.” ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2013-11-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-11-06.
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Terry McAuliffe to win the Viriginia's governor race. ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-10-28; known on 2013-11-07; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-06.
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NGE: Sadamoto's Eva manga will conclude with substantially the same ending as Last B ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2013-07-26; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-11-05.
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NGE: Sadamoto's Eva manga will conclude with substantially the same ending as Last A ( 5% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2013-07-26; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-11-05.
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NGE: Sadamoto's Eva manga will conclude with substantially the same ending as EoTV ( 10% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2013-07-26; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-11-05.
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NGE: Sadamoto's Eva manga will conclude with substantially the same ending as the NGE64 variant of EoE ( 26% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2013-07-26; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-11-05.
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Christine Quinn will be elected mayor of New York City in the upcoming election (regardless of whether there is a runoff election or not). ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-06-10; known on 2013-11-05; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-11-05.
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This web project will be closed down before most of the long term predictions can be judged. ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by thaprophet on 2011-11-04; known on 2013-11-04; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-04.
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I will have watched every video on Khan Academy by August 2013. ( 39% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Alexander Kruel on 2011-08-17; known on 2013-08-17; judged wrong by dk on 2013-11-04.
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My personal website will be up-and-running again by the end of the month ( 1% confidence )
Created by tylercurtis on 2013-10-06; known on 2013-11-01; judged wrong by tylercurtis on 2013-11-04.
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I will spend at least 5 minutes per day reviewing Anki decks for the remainder of October. ( 60% confidence )
Created by tylercurtis on 2013-10-03; known on 2013-11-01; judged wrong by tylercurtis on 2013-11-04.
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I got less than 29 points on Part I of my algorithms midterm. ( 13% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-16; known on 2013-11-06; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-03.
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I got more than 29 points on Part I of my algorithms midterm. ( 43% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-16; known on 2013-11-06; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-03.
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“Cups” was named so because it uses cups as instruments. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-03; known on 2013-11-03; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-03.
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All needed parts ordered by end of week 5 ( 60% confidence )
Created by Jach on 2013-10-23; known on 2013-11-01; judged wrong by Jach on 2013-11-02.
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During a single 24 hour period, I will write 48 hiragana and 48 katakana from memory with an error rate of 0% before 2014. ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-11-01.
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[tredactedw] will win the pie-eating contest. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-01; known on 2013-11-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-01.
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drewmm will complete his reading for his class at 3 PM before that class. ( 40% confidence )
Created by tylercurtis on 2013-10-31; known on 2013-11-01; judged right by drewmm on 2013-10-31.
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Gwern's real identity is Andre Lahs. ( 90% confidence; 9 comments )
Created by WhoIsGwernAnyway on 2013-10-31; known on 2013-11-01; judged wrong by WhoIsGwernAnyway on 2013-10-31.
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Steve Nash will retire by the beginning of the 2013-14 season. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by fistpo on 2012-08-03; known on 2013-10-31; judged wrong by fistpo on 2013-10-31.
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The “unfortunate” comment was made by [redacted]. ( 70% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-30; known on 2013-10-31; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-30.
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I will get some unexpected points on Problem 2 of 10-11 algorithms homework. ( 33% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-11; known on 2013-11-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-30.
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My team will win IEEEXtreme. ( 0% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-26; known on 2013-11-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-30.
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In the next arc Taylor will have a second trigger event.[worm web serial] ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Flipnash on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-27; judged wrong by Flipnash on 2013-10-28.
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There will be > 3 students in my course on saturday who haven't formally enrolled. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by mischan on 2013-10-22; known on 2013-10-26; judged wrong by mischan on 2013-10-26.
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My friend added me on Facebook. ( 33% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-25; known on 2013-10-25; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-25.
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The CFAR staff will give me their approval to move forward with the CLP Program in a form substantially similar to what I propose today. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by glennonymous on 2013-09-20; known on 2013-09-30; judged wrong by glennonymous on 2013-10-24.
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The algorithm I specified for Question 2c on the midterm was incorrect. ( 75% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-23; known on 2013-11-06; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-23.
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Over 95% percent of former student athletes have made a donation to the UB annual fund. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-23; known on 2013-10-23; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-23.
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The bridge to Goat Island will be open. ( 50% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-23; known on 2013-10-23; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-23.