Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Displaying all predictions made by sobet. Filter by:
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a nationwide ban on abortion goes into effect in the next 6 years, based on fetal personhood. ( 25% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.
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3eba1fee3af900bb58ce7e70d8962193b9775e8293cb5a29d91bd73ee814796e - ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-21; known on 2026-05-08.
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e5457decad6d1248430258b145bd1418cf6229b9e545e0282ab9a192d3b5491e - ( 89% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-21; known on 2025-05-08.
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262c5d5c74f33d44712251134f833ccad5ebaa9327aa759951fd3073063ab5d4 - ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-21; known on 2025-05-08.
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large credit card companies, paypal, square etc. refuse to accept payments from businesses that sell trans care items: for example, binders, packers, queer comics, flags, art. ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.
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at least one major terrorist attack on a pride event with deaths. killers will reference “grooming” as cause. ( 25% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2024-05-08.
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laws against unmarried people living together on the local level will spread ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.
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a case will come before the supreme court regarding anti-blasphemy or obscenity laws, and the court will take the case. ( 57% confidence )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.
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Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.
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serious challenge to obergefell goes before the supreme court in the next 6 years. ( 59% confidence )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.
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it becomes significantly more difficult for queer couples to get surrogates or adopt in the united states within 6 years. ( 63% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.
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assuming roe v wade is overturned, certain kinds of hormonal contraception will be classified as abortificants and banned in some states. ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.
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lawsuits aimed at bankrupting LGBT organizations. this is currently happening in the UK, and i anticipate it will be exported to the US as a strategy, in the next 3 years. ( 78% confidence )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2025-05-08.
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Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.
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gender studies, women's studies, queer studies, ethnic studies defunded from multiple universities, in particular state universities. ( 67% confidence )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.
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Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2026-05-08.
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increasingly strict regulations on hrt, surgery, for adults. in particular, rules that impact clinics' ability to provide drugs and surgeries in the next 4 years. ( 76% confidence )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2026-05-08.
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legislation to ban trans healthcare (hrt, surgery) in adults will be upheld by the supreme court in the next 6 years. ( 1% confidence )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2027-05-08.
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legislation to ban trans healthcare (hrt, surgery, or social transition) in children will be upheld by the supreme court in the next 6 years. ( 59% confidence )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2027-05-08.
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legislation will be introduced to ban trans-affirming care for trans adults in the next 2 years . ( 89% confidence )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2024-05-08.
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Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2027-05-08.