Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 100% | 50% | 75% | 100% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 21 |
Displaying all predictions made by skinnersboxy. Filter by:
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Btc below 7k USD before 2018 ( 13% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Leohmarruda on 2017-12-03; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by objclone on 2018-01-01.
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Btc below 9k usd before 2018 ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Leohmarruda on 2017-12-03; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Business, UK – Donald Brydon ceases to be chairman of LSE. ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-11-11; known on 2017-12-30; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-01-03.
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The new (not yet hired) person hired to be the Farm Animal Welfare Program Associate at the Open Philanthropy Project will be a member of the Effective Altruism Facebook group before the time they are hired ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-10-12; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2018-02-20.
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As of the end of 2017, J and K will have decided to move to India indefinitely ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-10-12; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2018-01-01.
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My friend will be pregnant before Christmas 2017 ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com on 2017-07-25; known on 2017-12-25; judged right by michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com on 2017-12-26.
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eros.vision will have < 100000 monthly active users at december 23-rd ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-13; known on 2017-12-23; judged right by crabman on 2017-12-23.
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Sarah Palin named ambassador to Canada ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-09; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Total death toll from malaria by year end 2017 will be > 350,000. ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31.
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Terrorism death toll by year end 2017 will be < 30,000 ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
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I am still using PredictionBook in 12 months (at least 5 predictions in December 2017) ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-12-22; known on 2017-12-30; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2017-12-31.
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Our car will need to be taken to the garage for a repair at least once in the next 12 months ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-12-21; known on 2017-12-21; judged wrong by penten on 2017-12-21.
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I will have a new phone in 12 months (current MI3W) ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-12-21; known on 2017-12-21; judged right by penten on 2017-12-21.
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Land a robot on the Moon by 2017 for the Google Lunar X prize —Rahul Narayan, CEO of Team Indus, Bharat ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-18; known on 2017-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-27.
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US real GDP growth rate for 2017 will be under 2.2% ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-20; known on 2017-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-27.
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France will default on its debt. ( 14% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-06; known on 2017-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-27.
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UK will default on its debt. ( 14% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-06; known on 2017-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-27.
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Finland will be the first nation to introduce nationwide basic income by December 2017. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-07; known on 2017-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-27.
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US economy will be in recession by 2017. ( 41% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-12; known on 2017-12-25; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-12-25.
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Universal Secondary Education by 2017 for Bharat.Gross Enrolment Ratio, which is at 78.51% will be at least 97%. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-10; known on 2017-12-27; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-27.
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Global Income Inequality as measured by Gini coefficient based on incomes in constant International dollars (which has so far been calculated by Branko Milanovic of the World Bank) will be less in 2017 than what it was in 2008. ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by rznsri@gmail.com on 2015-08-26; known on 2017-12-30.
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Bharat will pass the UK on the IMF's ranking of world's biggest economies. Bharat will be the 5th biggest economy at GDP current prices in the world in 2017. ( 54% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-13; known on 2017-12-27; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-27.
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Clear biomarkers will be detected in the atmosphere of more than one “Super Earth” exoplanet by Christmas, 2017. ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2017-12-26; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-12-26.