Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 47% | 56% | 62% | 81% | 93% | 97% | |
Sample Size | 180 | 158 | 278 | 220 | 320 | 36 | 1192 |
Displaying all predictions made by EloiseRosen. Filter by:
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No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040. ( 86% confidence; 24 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-19; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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2020s to be warmer than the 2010s ( 83% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-18; known on 2031-01-01.
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US 2016 Presidential election to be Trump v. Sanders ( 5% confidence; 40 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-17; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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At least one image generated by Deeplearning neaural networks will have seizure-causing effects in >0.1% of human population by 2016 ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sdr on 2015-07-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Houshalter on 2016-01-11.
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I will weigh more than 190 lbs on 2020-07-01 ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-07-11; known on 2020-07-02; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-07-02.
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Modafinil to be more popular in US in 2025 than 2015 ( 67% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2026-01-16.
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Noam Chomsky to become a centenarian ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2029-01-01.
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50% of all high school classes in the US to be taught online by 2019 (Clayton Christensen) ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-01-02.
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India to successfully launch at least 15 more commercial satellites before 2018. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-12; known on 2018-01-16; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-16.
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I will be a teetotaler for the entire period between now and 2025-01-01 ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by btrettel on 2015-07-12; known on 2025-01-02.
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At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030 ( 28% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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Daniel Dennett to do an IAmA on reddit by 2020 ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01.
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I'll miss the train. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-07-10; known on 2015-07-11; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-07-10.
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Ellen Pao will no longer be CEO of Reddit by September 1, 2015 ( 30% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2015-07-09; known on 2015-09-01; judged right by gwern on 2015-07-10.
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By January 1, 2017, no unambiguous contact with intelligent extraterrestrials. ( 99% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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When/if Raahul_Kumar reaches 30 predictions for which the answer becomes known and he assigned >95% confidence, he will have at best 65% accuracy for the 100% category ( 55% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-21.
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When/if Raahul_Kumar reaches 30 predictions for which the answer becomes known and he assigned >95% confidence, he will have at best 50% accuracy for the 100% category ( 33% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-07-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-21.
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Mitt Romney will decide to run for President in 2016 ( 12% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by SalTnutZ1 on 2015-07-05; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-31.
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P will be at contra tonight. ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-07-02; known on 2015-07-03; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-07-04.
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I will miss my train. ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-07-02; known on 2015-07-03; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-07-02.
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By January 30th, 2016 War between Satan and God, clearly happening to those on Earth. ( 0% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-30; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-02.
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Jeb Bush will not be elected President of the United States. ( 75% confidence; 21 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by James Babcock on 2015-06-24; known on 2016-11-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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The car will get towed. ( 30% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-06-24; known on 2015-06-24; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-06-24.
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Extreme upset of how things are by January 30th, 2016 ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-23; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-01.
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Apple will buy Tesla by 2020 ( 17% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ira on 2015-06-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-01-02.
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Jeb Bush to be the 2016 Republican nominee. ( 49% confidence; 18 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-17; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-02-21.
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I will be single as of October 2015 ( 73% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ejlflop on 2015-06-11; known on 2015-10-01; judged right by splorridge on 2015-12-08.
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AHA Sam missed his flight. ( 70% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-05-26; known on 2015-05-29; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-05-26.
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Hillary Clinton to withdraw from the US presidential election by March 17th, 2016, and Martin O'Malley to be the Democratic nominee. ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-23; known on 2016-03-17; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-17.
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By January 1, 2055, driving a non-self-driving car on at least one US federal highway will be illegal. ( 33% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-13; known on 2055-01-02.
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On my 40th birthday, I will have had 1 child (excluding offspring from selling eggs). ( 25% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-05-04; known on 2030-07-31.
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On my 40th birthday, I will have had 0 children (excluding offspring from selling eggs). ( 15% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-05-04; known on 2030-07-31.
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On my 40th birthday, I will have had 2 children (excluding offspring from selling eggs). ( 25% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-05-04; known on 2030-07-31.
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On my 40th birthday, I will have had 3 children (excluding offspring from selling eggs). ( 25% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-05-04; known on 2030-05-31.
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On my 40th birthday, I will have had 4 or more children (excluding offspring from selling eggs). ( 10% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-05-04; known on 2030-07-31.
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On my 40th birthday, Sam will still be alive and I will still be married to him. ( 90% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-05-04; known on 2030-07-31.
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On my 40th birthday, I will be living in the greater Boston area. ( 45% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-05-04; known on 2030-07-31.
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On my 40th birthday, I will be living in the US. ( 88% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-05-04; known on 2030-07-31.
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On my 40th birthday I will be employed and working in a data science-y or programmerish occupation. ( 65% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-05-04; known on 2030-07-31.
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On my 40th birthday I will be a vegetarian or pescetarian. ( 70% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-05-04; known on 2030-07-31.
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Sam will complete his PhD. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-05-04; known on 2025-05-04.
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Bernie Sanders to win the Democratic nomination. ( 18% confidence; 66 wagers; 38 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-02; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-10.
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RC A will win. ( 70% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-29; known on 2015-05-01.
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Bernie Sanders to be the next elected President of the United States ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-01; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-10.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky will start writing at least one new fanfic widely available (such as on fanfic.net) before July 15, 2016. (By start I mean at least chapter available). ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-23; known on 2016-07-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-07-16.
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Final grades for my students will be in by May 14 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-05-14; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-03.
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Hillary Clinton to be the next elected President of the United States. ( 56% confidence; 43 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-27; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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I will complete my PhD by 2017-12-31. ( 63% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-04-27; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by btrettel on 2017-12-31.
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Hillary Clinton will be the next president elect. ( 62% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-26; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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I will never have kids ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Mishell103 on 2015-04-25; known on 2025-04-25.
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Before January 1 2045, no normal material substance (that is composed of atoms made from neutrons and protons with electrons) will be discovered that blocks more neutrinos than a factor of 10 over what a pure density argument would suggest. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-25; known on 2045-01-01.
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By April 21, 2020, World War III will have broken out. ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-21; known on 2020-04-21; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-04-21.
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I will have a date in the next two weeks ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by dmai9600@yahoo.com on 2015-04-19; known on 2015-05-02.
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I will get a girlfriend in the next 24 hours. ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-14; known on 2015-04-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15.
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That when I wake up Earth will still exist. ( 100% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-14; known on 2015-04-15; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15.
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By 2030, the consensus in the United States will be that 9/11 was an inside job with US government involvement. Consensus to be determined by at least 60% of the US believing it, or it to be widely accepted in some other fashion if the situation has broke ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-13; known on 2030-01-01.
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Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ( 41% confidence; 20 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-13; known on 2030-01-01.
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By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ( 11% confidence; 13 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-12; known on 2065-01-01.
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My hair will be complimented next time I go clubbing ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-11; known on 2015-05-21; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-27.
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At least 40 states will have some form of legal cannabis by 2024 ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-09; known on 2024-01-01.
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The mitten will still be there on my next run. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-04-08; known on 2015-04-08; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-04-08.
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I will be able to memorize a shuffled deck of cards (Doppelkopf deck, 48 cards) in less then 5min by the end of May. ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Chri on 2015-04-07; known on 2015-06-01; judged right by Chri on 2015-05-28.
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By January 1, 2045, each of the cities of Flagstaff, Las Vegas, Albuquerque, Clovis, Prescott, Henderson, Hobbs, and Abilene will have a population of at most 10% its population compared to the population in 2015. ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-06; known on 2045-01-03.
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My achilles will be better (able to run) within 7 more weeks. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-06; known on 2015-05-25; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-18.
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My achilles will be better (enough for me to start running) within 2 more weeks. ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-06; known on 2015-04-20; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-20.
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Sam will wake up before I leave. ( 75% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-04-03; known on 2015-04-04; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-04-04.
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I have at least 1 cavity. ( 90% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-24; known on 2015-05-02; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-04-22.
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Between 2040 and 2050 there will be a two year period where at least 100 million people will die due to “climate change caused food scarcity and related uprising suppression due to civil unrest”. ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-05; known on 2051-01-01.
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Synaptitude will make it into YC S15 batch. Our application: http://synaptitude.me/blog/our-ycombinator-s15-application/ On average a 3% acceptance rate. ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by lettergram on 2015-03-26; known on 2015-04-27; judged wrong by lettergram on 2015-04-27.
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“By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.” ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-25; known on 2033-03-25.
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V fixed the bug. ( 25% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-03-19; known on 2015-03-20; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-03-19.
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Starbucks CEO to make an apology for his Race Relations idea or something one of his employees says or does within 1 year. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by nazgul76 on 2015-03-17; known on 2016-03-17; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-22.
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They'll hire me. ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ThetaAurigae on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-04-01; judged wrong by ThetaAurigae on 2015-04-08.
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S will respond. ( 50% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-27; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-03-21.
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H7N9 will become pandemic by March 15, 2020. ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-15; known on 2020-03-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-03-15.
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The attendance of the Chicago HP:MoR wrap party will be greater than 50 people. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-03-13; known on 2015-03-14; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2015-03-15.
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World population to drop for at least one of the next 10 years. (2015,2016, 2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024). ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-10; known on 2025-02-02.
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I will get my full deposit back from my current landlord ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-09-01; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-08-16.
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[HPMOR Ch. 114] Conditional on EY accepting a viable fan solution, it will be different to what will actually happen in the story. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by dain on 2015-03-02; known on 2015-03-03; judged wrong by dain on 2015-03-03.
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EY accepts at least one answer for the Final Exam, causing the story to continue to chapter 121. ( 78% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by tedks on 2015-03-02; known on 2015-03-04; judged right by iwakun on 2015-03-03.
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The cat will throw up on Monday. ( 2% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-28; known on 2015-03-03; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-03-03.
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My Kickstarter will fail without reaching 50% (https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/synaptitude/thinksuite-brainware-not-software) ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by lettergram on 2015-02-26; known on 2015-03-25; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-03-25.
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At least 25% of American personal car travel will be via self-driving cars by February 24, 2020. ( 4% confidence; 17 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-24; known on 2020-02-24; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-02-24.
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By January 1, 2025 at least one OECD country with a population of at least 5 million people will have more than half of all cars be self-driving. ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-24; known on 2025-01-01.
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The 11th floor faucet has been fixed. ( 80% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-24; known on 2015-02-26; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-25.
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I will get sick sometime in March. ( 25% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-24; known on 2015-04-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-04-01.
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We'll get a parking ticket in the next month. ( 45% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-24; known on 2015-03-23; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-03-23.
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Someone will compliment my outfit tomorrow. ( 15% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-24; known on 2015-02-25; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-25.
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At Wednesday's eye appointment it will be determined that I need a stronger prescription. ( 95% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-24; known on 2015-02-26; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-26.
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No obvious bugs in code. ( 70% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-23; known on 2015-02-24; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-23.
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By 2030, same-sex marriage will be legal everywhere in the US. ( 87% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2015-02-23; known on 2030-01-01; judged right by alexneptune on 2016-03-01.
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A and J get engaged in the next 5 years. ( 85% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-23; known on 2020-02-24.
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I have symptoms of Y before the end of March. ( 30% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-23; known on 2015-04-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-03-16.
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On 1st June the PM is a member of the Labour party ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-02-17; known on 2015-06-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-06-08.
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T FB ( 80% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-17; known on 2015-03-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-18.
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Ben fixed the Internet. ( 75% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-17; known on 2015-02-17; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-17.
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Feb R > 10k ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-17; known on 2015-03-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-27.
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5k < Feb R =< 10k ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-17; known on 2015-03-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-27.
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0 < Feb R =< 5k ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-17; known on 2015-03-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-27.
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Feb R = 0 ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-17; known on 2015-03-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-27.