Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 42% | 66% | 75% | 84% | 94% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 43 | 70 | 113 | 95 | 143 | 2 | 466 |
Displaying all predictions made by Michael Dickens. Filter by:
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Bitcoin price on 2014-01-01: 50-149$ (mtgox prices) ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ArisKatsaris on 2013-12-31.
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Bitcoin price on 2014-01-01: < 50$ (mtgox prices) ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ArisKatsaris on 2013-12-31.
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Barack Obama to attempt to run for a third term as President (either through Constitutional amendment or other method). ( 0% confidence; 41 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-24; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Zerocoin functionality incorporated into Bitcoin within 1 year ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-22; known on 2014-11-22; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-11-23.
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Bitcoin falls to a value of less than 1$ per Bitcoin by the end of 2014. (prediction inspired by http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1qvbzk/bloomberg_us_agencies_to_say_bitcoins_offer/cdh3ty2 ) ( 2% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-20; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.
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Bitcoin suffers a crash by the end of 2014, defined as falling to below 20% of its all-time high. (prediction inspired by http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1qvbzk/bloomberg_us_agencies_to_say_bitcoins_offer/cdh3ty2 ) ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-20; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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I will switch to Emacs as my primary editor for writing code, before 2015 ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-15; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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Google will be the first company with a market cap of $1 trillion. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-10-26; known on 2030-01-01.
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I will make an A- or higher in CS 110: Principles of Computer Systems. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-09-07; known on 2014-01-01.
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By January 1, the “Sleepless in Austin” guy will be revealed as a troll. ( 25% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-09-27; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-01.
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In the 2016 US presidential election, dealing with the NSA etc. will not be ignored and will be a serious debate issue, on par with the economy or abortion. ( 39% confidence; 12 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-09-25; known on 2016-11-02; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-11-09.
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There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023. ( 66% confidence; 19 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by qap on 2013-09-21; known on 2024-01-01.
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The Turning will have a Rotten Tomatoes rating >= 75% ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by atroche on 2013-09-18; known on 2013-10-16; judged right by atroche on 2013-10-16.
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There will be at least one Mono Black Control (MBC) deck among the Pro Tour Theros Top 8 decks. ( 10% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-09-17; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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Apple will announce MacBook Pros with Retina Screens before December 2013 (these can either be updates to existing ones, or non-Retina models getting Retina screens, or brand new ones) Edit ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ericlefevre on 2013-09-11; known on 2013-12-01; judged right by ericlefevre on 2013-12-02.
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I will go to at least 1 frat party during the 2013/14 school year. ( 25% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-09-07; known on 2014-07-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-07-01.
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I will drop at least 1 class this quarter. ( 30% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-09-07; known on 2013-12-16; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2013-10-19.
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I will publically convert to Islam before 2025. ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-09-07; known on 2025-01-01.
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“Confession Bear” will be permanently banned on reddit.com/r/adviceanimals before 2014 ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Omid on 2013-09-05; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Vulture on 2014-01-20.
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I will get an A or better in CSE 205: Object-Oriented Programming and Data Structures. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-09-05; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-16.
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I will get an A or better in MAT 265: Calculus for Engineers I. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-09-05; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-16.
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Tyrion is one of the 3 Dragon's heads. ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Osuniev on 2013-09-05; known on 2015-01-01.
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Jon Snow is one of the 3 dragon's head. ( 52% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Osuniev on 2013-09-05; known on 2015-01-01.
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No one will win Sam Harris's prize for convincing him that his book is wrong ( 87% confidence; 19 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Omid on 2013-09-01; known on 2014-11-01; judged right by Matt2000 on 2014-11-01.
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It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ( 1% confidence; 21 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2013-08-26; known on 2028-08-26.
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It will be illegal to drive yourself on Australian public roads ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2013-08-26; known on 2028-08-26.
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Predictionbook's overall statistics will remain overconfident (Confidence > accuracy in all six buckets) by 2015. ( 82% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sdr on 2013-08-24; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by atroche on 2015-01-01.
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In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia. ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Omid on 2013-08-22; known on 2034-06-01.
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“Less than 500 of the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II will ever be built” [Pierre Sprey] ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by dusk on 2013-08-15; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by dusk on 2020-12-25.
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I will complete all Duolingo lessons for Spanish before 2014. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-08-13; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-16.
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Bill predicts that the phrase “0-caching” or “n-caching” will become common hip teen slang by 2018 ( 16% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by optimistindustries on 2013-08-03; known on 2018-08-03; judged wrong by enolan on 2018-08-27.
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I will get into my first choice for university ( 39% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by thostian on 2013-07-31; known on 2013-08-20; judged right by thostian on 2014-09-16.
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My current programming project will be at least 10,000 lines of code (including comments and whitespace) by the end of summer. ( 30% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-07-08; known on 2013-09-24; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2013-09-24.
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I will take at least 50 credit hours during the 2013-14 school year. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-07-08; known on 2014-06-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-06-01.
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I will take at least 45 credit hours during the 2013-14 school year. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-07-08; known on 2014-06-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-06-01.
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By 1 January 2014, I will have at least 20,000 comment karma on Reddit. ( 5% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-07-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-01.
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By 1 January 2014, I will have at least 100 link karma on Reddit. ( 25% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-07-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-01.
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By 1 January 2014, I will have at least 15,000 comment karma on Reddit. ( 25% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-07-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-01.
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By 1 January 2014, I will have at least 13,000 comment karma on Reddit. ( 55% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-07-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-01.
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By 1 January 2014, I will have at least 500 karma on Less Wrong. ( 25% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-07-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-01.
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New Mersenne prime discovered by January 1, 2016. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-07-06; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Jach on 2016-01-10.
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Snowden turns himself in to US authorities before 2016 ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by phreeza on 2013-07-02; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035. ( 19% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2013-06-27; known on 2035-12-31.
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Snowden arrested by US authorities before 2014 ( 24% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2013-06-23; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-12-31.
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Before 2020, there'll be a news story about Google/FB/Amazon or other multibillion dollar public tech company employee being a government (US or foreign) mole. ( 50% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-06-18; known on 2020-01-02; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-04-21.
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I will graduate from Denison University by May 17, 2014. ( 94% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-06-17; known on 2014-05-17; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2014-05-18.
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My final grade in THINK25 will be an A. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-06-16; known on 2013-06-21; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2013-06-19.
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My final grade in Spanish will be an A. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-06-16; known on 2013-06-21; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2013-06-19.
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My final grade in Math108 will be a B+. ( 30% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-06-16; known on 2013-06-21; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2013-06-19.
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My final grade in CS161 will be an A. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-06-16; known on 2013-06-21; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2013-06-19.
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A live-action Metal Gear movie will be released before 2020 and Kiefer Sutherland will play Snake or Big Boss. ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-06-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Apple will lose in its e-book antitrust trial. ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-06-05; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by ygert on 2013-07-16.
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I will go to England this summer ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-06-03; known on 2013-07-11; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-12.
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By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S. ( 38% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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Ubuntu will create its very own Kernel within the next five years, ( 13% confidence; 18 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by peterc on 2013-05-28; known on 2018-06-01; judged wrong by moyamo on 2018-06-13.
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The US deficit will not fall below $300 billion at any point in the second term of President Obama. ( 74% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by elmerfudd1 on 2013-05-16; known on 2016-11-11; judged right by elmerfudd1 on 2016-11-15.
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I will receive my first choice of dorming at Washington University in St Louis ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Isaac on 2013-05-09; known on 2013-08-09; judged wrong by Isaac on 2013-08-09.
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Rep. Edward Markey (D) defeats Gabriel Gomez® in the Massachusetts Senate special election ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-05-09; known on 2013-06-26; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-06-26.
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Kickstarter will ban at least one high profile DYI synthetic organism project by 2015 ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by phreeza on 2015-01-08.
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Larry Page will survive 5 years as Google CEO ( 76% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by davatk on 2018-05-08.
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Google Chrome browser will survive 5 years ( 93% confidence; 27 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Chrome OS will survive 5 years ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by crabman on 2018-05-16.
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Google Translate will survive 5 years ( 90% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-03; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Search will survive 5 years ( 98% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-03; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Project Glass will survive 5 years ( 57% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-03; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-28.
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Google Voice will survive 5 more years ( 46% confidence; 7 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Scholar will survive 5 more years ( 77% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google+ will survive 5 more years ( 60% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Gmail will survive 5 more years ( 95% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google's FeedBurner will survive 5 more years ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin. ( 8% confidence; 14 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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The next US president (after Obama) will also be a Democrat. ( 53% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Osuniev on 2013-04-15; known on 2016-11-15; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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A nuclear disaster equal to or worse than Fukushima will happen this year. ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers )
Created by hedges on 2013-04-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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Average global temperature for 2013 to be higher than for 2012. ( 56% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-03-13; known on 2014-01-15; judged right by simplicio on 2014-01-15.
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Alex Jones will be implicated in a sex scandal by the end of 2013. ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Digglerson on 2013-02-27; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.
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Jon Snow alive at beginning of The Winds of Winter ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Leo on 2013-01-19; known on 2025-01-01.
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Germany to cancel phase-out of nuclear power by 2022. ( 22% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-01-18; known on 2022-02-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2022-03-12.
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EU to succeed in its target of cutting greenhouse gas levels to 20% of 1990 levels by 2020. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-01-18; known on 2020-02-01.
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The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years. ( 11% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Cy Fleming on 2013-01-16; known on 2028-01-16.
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The US government will not have defaulted by the end of 2013. ( 96% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-15; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
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By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI. ( 6% confidence; 24 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2021-01-01.
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Before 2015, it will be found (by a legal or governmental authority of the USA) that Aaron Swartz's death was not suicide. ( 3% confidence; 20 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-01-13; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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Google will be selling flying cars by December 2016 ( 3% confidence; 25 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-01-10; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by neilscott on 2016-11-26.
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Barack Obama will be assassinated in 2013 ( 1% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-01-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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Steven Spielberg will win the Oscar for Best Director. ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-10; known on 2013-02-24; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-25.
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Anne Hathaway will win the Oscar for Best Supporting Actress. ( 55% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-10; known on 2013-02-24; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-25.
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Lincoln will win the Oscar for Best Picture. ( 45% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-10; known on 2013-02-24; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-02-25.
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By the end of 2013, the government will have never minted a trillion dollar coin. ( 94% confidence; 27 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
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Homicide rate per 100,000 in Canada to be lower in 2013 than in 2012. (Deciding source: StatCan) ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by simplicio on 2013-01-02; known on 2013-03-01; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
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Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA. ( 24% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Nadanate on 2012-11-13; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.
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Aronwall will publically state that he drops his belief in Christianity after discussing his belief on his blog with other rationalists before the end of 2013. (See http://lesswrong.com/lw/fyt/wanted_rationalist_pushback/) ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ChristianKl on 2012-12-21; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by ChristianKl on 2014-01-03.
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There will be a mass shooting in the US, defined as a shooting where more than 10 people are injured or killed ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by modulus on 2012-12-16; known on 2013-02-23; judged wrong by modulus on 2013-02-23.
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Cure for baldness discovered by 2014 — The Telegraph. ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-31; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Pablo on 2015-01-01.
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The top 3 most watched YouTube videos will stay the same till February 1st. ( 82% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by cyblifeformnode on 2012-12-09; known on 2013-02-01; judged right by Sarokrae on 2013-04-04.
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By the end of January bond and stock markets will crash. (things my dad says) ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by drethelin on 2012-12-06; known on 2013-01-30; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2013-01-30.
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Gangnam Style to reach 1,000,000,000 views by December 1st 2012. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bZkp7q19f0 ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Sarokrae on 2012-11-25; known on 2012-12-01; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-12-01.
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Gangnam Style to reach 1,000,000,000 views by December 11th 2012. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bZkp7q19f0 ( 33% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Sarokrae on 2012-11-25; known on 2012-12-11; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-12-11.
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Gangnam Style to reach 1,000,000,000 views by December 21st 2012. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bZkp7q19f0 ( 53% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Sarokrae on 2012-11-25; known on 2012-12-21; judged right by army1987 on 2012-12-21.
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Gangnam Style to reach 1,000,000,000 views by December 31st 2012. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bZkp7q19f0 ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Sarokrae on 2012-11-25; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by army1987 on 2012-12-21.
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Jesus returns to planet earth before the end of 2012. ( 0% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Torquil on 2012-11-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Flipnash on 2013-08-17.