Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 75% | 55% | 57% | 100% | 86% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 4 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 1 | 57 |
Displaying all predictions made by Danny_Hintze. Filter by:
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Facebook will release a phone at their recently announced CES event. ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Danny_Hintze on 2013-01-08; known on 2013-01-15; judged wrong by Danny_Hintze on 2013-01-16.
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Gwern has dissociative identity disorder and the identity of his split personality is Yvain. ( 0% confidence; 28 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2020-01-01.
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I will get above a 90 on this econometrics test ( 40% confidence )
Created by Danny_Hintze on 2012-04-06; known on 2012-04-20.
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The minecraft apocalypse server (reddit/r/mcapoc) will be wiped in the next year. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Danny_Hintze on 2012-03-26; known on 2013-07-02; judged right by Danny_Hintze on 2013-07-05.
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At least 15 people will attend the next Student Economics Association roundtable. ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Danny_Hintze on 2012-03-26; known on 2012-03-30; judged wrong by Danny_Hintze on 2012-03-30.
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>=$1.6m will be donated towards the Center for Modern Rationality in the next month ( 1% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-12; known on 2012-04-12; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-12.
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Hanson and Yudkowsky publish the AI FOOM debate (EDIT: in a peer-reviewed, academic journal) before 2015. ( 30% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2012-02-22; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.