Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 100% | 75% | 73% | 79% | 100% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 3 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 21 | 1 | 58 |
Displaying all predictions made by Issa Rice. Filter by:
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The world will end in 2078 to a nuclear holocaust. ( 8% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Fenrir on 2020-10-31; known on 2078-12-31.
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[I will be back home] never (won't make it back home) ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Issa Rice on 2022-02-27; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2022-03-10.
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[I will be back home] after March 31, 2022 ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Issa Rice on 2022-02-27; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2022-03-10.
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[I will be back home] between March 18, 2022 and March 31, 2022 (inclusive) ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Issa Rice on 2022-02-27; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2022-03-10.
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[I will be back home] between March 4, 2022 and March 17, 2022 (inclusive) ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Issa Rice on 2022-02-27; known on 2025-01-01; judged right by Issa Rice on 2022-03-10.
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[I will be back home] on or before March 3, 2022 ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Issa Rice on 2022-02-27; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2022-03-10.
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I will visit Russia by December 31, 2022 (“visit” includes both short visits and moving there). ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Issa Rice on 2020-06-01; known on 2023-01-05; judged right by Issa Rice on 2023-01-13.
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Conditional on visiting Russia, there will be a single day during my visit that I will consider better than my day in Vienna (during my 2019 visit). ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Issa Rice on 2020-06-01; known on 2023-01-05; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2023-01-13.
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Conditional on visiting Russia, I will like it better than the United Kingdom. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Issa Rice on 2020-06-01; known on 2023-01-05; judged right by Issa Rice on 2023-01-13.
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I convince Issa that the East™ is worth living in,,..,,.,,..,,. ( 14% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-05-24; known on 2018-03-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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I leave east coast disappointed, sad, filled with regret, not worth it, etc ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-05-24; known on 2017-11-03; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-11-03.
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I'll have gotten intimate with an MIT girl/boy (must include physical) ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-05-24; known on 2018-03-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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I will be living in Boston area as of March 2018 ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-05-24; known on 2018-03-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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Y will ask Issa to do something for her during their meeting today ( 23% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-05-19; known on 2017-05-21; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-05-20.
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I will get above average on the PSAT. ( 91% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by burning.harvest on 2017-05-19; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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There will be a Wikipedia page about Vipul Naik's paid editing of Wikipedia, as of April 1, 2018. ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-12; known on 2018-04-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2018-04-02.
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Vipul will get married before he dies ( 31% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-03-11; known on 3001-01-01.
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I will have a gf at some point ( 81% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-03-11; known on 3001-01-01.
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Vipul Naik will have a girlfriend at some point in 2017 or later, in the 21st century. ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-11; known on 2101-01-01.
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Issa will get another girlfriend in this century ( 69% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-03-11; known on 2100-01-01; judged right by Issa Rice on 2020-09-09.
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The COIN thread on Vipul Naik's paid editing enterprise will continue to receive at least three comments a day as of March 15, 2017. ( 19% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-09; known on 2017-03-16; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-16.
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Vipul Naik will be banned from editing Wikipedia as of March 31, 2017. ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-09; known on 2017-04-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-01.
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There will be a standalone Wikipedia page https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_Facebook as of March 31, 2017. ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-09; known on 2017-04-02; judged right by Issa Rice on 2017-04-02.
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There will be a standalone Wikipedia page about GiveWell https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GiveWell as of March 31, 2017. ( 54% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-09; known on 2017-04-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-02.
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EAUW has a meeting fall quarter 2017 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-27; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-12-31.
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2017 LessWrong codebase migration will happen and existing LessWrong accounts will stop working (forcing users to sign up for fresh accounts) ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2018-01-01.
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2017 LessWrong codebase migration will happen and will cause massive linkrot that will last for at least one month ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2018-01-01.
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LessWrong will use Telescope Nova rather than its old reddit codebase by 2018-01-01 ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Issa Rice on 2018-01-01.
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LessWrong will accept posts written in Markdown (any flavor) on its web interface by 2018-01-01 ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Issa Rice on 2018-01-01.
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A LessWrong post published during 2017 will become a top-10 post by pageviews on LW by 2018-01-01 ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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Arbital will merge content with LessWrong (proper or wiki) by 2020-01-01 ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2020-01-01.
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Total LessWrong Google Analytics Sessions for 2017 will be higher than for 2016 ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-26; known on 2018-01-01.
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Total LessWrong Google Analytics Pageviews for 2017 will be higher than for 2016 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-26; known on 2018-01-01.
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“Link posts” will still exist as a feature for new posts on LessWrong on 2018-01-01 ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Issa Rice on 2018-01-01.
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Luminiferous Aether Theory turned out to be correct after all, big screw up/coverup dating to Michelson–Morley ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-13; known on 2047-01-01.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_%22compromised%22_claims (PissGate Wikpedia Article) will be around on January 1st, 2018 ( 59% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Issa Rice on 2018-01-01.
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I will continue to use (in any form, on any machine) tmux in 2025 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-08; known on 2026-01-01.
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At least one article Vipul Naik pays to create on the English Wikipedia will have good article or featured article status by the end of 2025 ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-08; known on 2026-01-01.
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Tomorrow I will finish exporting the Quora questions I follow ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-07; known on 2017-01-08; judged right by Issa Rice on 2017-01-08.
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I will be on University of Washington Seattle campus on January 20, 2017 ( 18% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-07; known on 2017-01-21; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2017-01-21.
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“Timeline of digital preservation” on the English Wikipedia will be over 100,000 bytes by the end of 2017 https://goo.gl/RMJbcs ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-06; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-01.
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Akshat Shrivastava will drop out of the University of Washington ( 14% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-06; known on 2018-06-30; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-06-30.
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Vipul Naik will pay more (“payments due”) for contract work in 2017 than he did in 2016 https://contractwork.vipulnaik.com/ ( 61% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-05; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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The University of Washington will move up from its current ranking of 15 in ARWU before 2021 ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-05; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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Bryan Caplan's The Case Against Education will have a Wikipedia page about it within one month of publication, and the page will not be deleted for one year after publication of the page. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-05; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2019-07-16.
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At least one non-redirect page I created on the English Wikipedia during 2016 will be deleted through an AfD in 2017 ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Issa Rice on 2018-01-01.
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By the end of 2020, gwern will write a new article for the English Wikipedia and Vipul Naik will pay for the work https://contractwork.vipulnaik.com/ ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-03; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2021-01-01.
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MSJapan will make an edit on the English Wikipedia in 2017 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Contributions/MSJapan ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-03; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-01.
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Vipul Naik will publish a post on the Effective Altruism Forum during 2017 http://effective-altruism.com/user/vipulnaik/submitted/ ( 86% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-02; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Issa Rice on 2018-01-01.
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Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020 ( 9% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-29; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2021-01-01.