Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
-
Michael Jordan will sell or become passive owner of the Bobcats by start of 2013-14 NBA season ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-28; known on 2013-11-16; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-12-03.
-
Apple will announce MacBook Pros with Retina Screens before December 2013 (these can either be updates to existing ones, or non-Retina models getting Retina screens, or brand new ones) Edit ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ericlefevre on 2013-09-11; known on 2013-12-01; judged right by ericlefevre on 2013-12-02.
-
Labour to win next Australian federal election ( 33% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by procran on 2011-11-12; known on 2013-11-30; judged wrong by procran on 2013-12-02.
-
Tony Abbott will be the Prime Minister following the 2013 Australian Federal Election ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by atroche on 2013-05-26; known on 2013-12-01; judged right by atroche on 2013-12-01.
-
Ender's Game will do worse than expected (4wk gross < HSX @ 122.6m) ( 54% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomMovie on 2012-11-19; known on 2013-12-01; judged right by Qiaochu on 2013-12-01.
-
Bitcoin <$230 on Bitstamp at the start of 1 December 2013 ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-17; known on 2013-12-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-12-01.
-
I will not look at porn from now until January 1, 2015. ( 99% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-30.
-
I will not masturbate from now until January 1, 2015. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-30.
-
My guess was correct. ( 90% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-28; known on 2013-11-28; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-28.
-
BTC hits $500 within the year ( 35% confidence; 23 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2013-11-28.
-
BTC hits $1000 in the next 10 years ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-19; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2013-11-28.
-
BTC hits $1000 within the year ( 15% confidence; 20 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2013-11-28.
-
mortgage rates in Canada won't rise above 5% for a 1 year term within the next year. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kjaques on 2012-11-27; known on 2013-11-27; judged right by kjaques on 2013-11-27.
-
I will finish Judea Pearl's Causality (2nd edition) by the time it is due back to the library (8/28/13) ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by mavant on 2013-08-08; known on 2013-08-28; judged wrong by mavant on 2013-11-26.
-
I will complete repairs on my motorcycle by the end of August. ( 10% confidence )
Created by mavant on 2013-08-08; known on 2013-09-01; judged wrong by mavant on 2013-11-26.
-
I will complete repairs on my motorcycle by the end of September. ( 25% confidence )
Created by mavant on 2013-08-08; known on 2013-10-01; judged wrong by mavant on 2013-11-26.
-
I will finish Judea Pearl's Causality (2nd edition) by the time it is due back to the library (8/28/13) ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by mavant on 2013-08-08; known on 2013-08-28; judged wrong by mavant on 2013-11-26.
-
I will complete repairs on my motorcycle by the end of August. ( 10% confidence )
Created by mavant on 2013-08-08; known on 2013-09-01; judged wrong by mavant on 2013-11-26.
-
3 times the square root of 2 exceeds 4. ( 99% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-26; known on 2013-11-26; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-26.
-
Test will show I have very low cortisol | I get a salivary cortisol test ( 80% confidence )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-10-22; known on 2013-11-19; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2013-11-26.
-
Miami will beat Carolina (NFL) today. ( 55% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-24; known on 2013-11-24; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-24.
-
Amazon will dominate Android appstores —Marco Arment ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-23; known on 2013-11-23; judged wrong by kpreid on 2013-11-23.
-
“Orkut to be merged with Google Plus in the near future” —Chris Jolley ( 33% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-23; known on 2013-11-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-11-23.
-
Our professor will reveal the homework answer before it is due. ( 0% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-22; known on 2013-11-23; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-22.
-
LW Survey calibration answer. ( 20% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-22; known on 2013-11-22; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-22.
-
“S&P will announce before 1 July 2013 a downgrade of its France sovereign rating.” ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11; known on 2013-07-01; judged right by eagleclaw6 on 2013-11-20.
-
“S&P will announce before 1 July 2013 a downgrade of its France sovereign rating.” ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11; known on 2013-07-01; judged right by eagleclaw6 on 2013-11-20.
-
“S&P will announce before 1 July 2013 a downgrade of its France sovereign rating.” ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11; known on 2013-07-01; judged right by eagleclaw6 on 2013-11-20.
-
Worm final chapters and epilogues will reveal that 'Khepri' is alive. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by nohat on 2013-10-29; known on 2013-11-20; judged right by nohat on 2013-11-19.
-
I will get more than 85 points on algorithms HW7. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-09; known on 2013-11-30; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-19.
-
I will get exactly 85 points on HW7 for algorithms. ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-09; known on 2013-11-30; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-19.
-
“S&P will announce before 1 July 2013 a downgrade of its France sovereign rating.” ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11; known on 2013-07-01; judged right by eagleclaw6 on 2013-11-20.
-
The price of 1BTC on MtGox is greater than or equal to $600 at some point before the end of this prediction. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by tedks on 2013-11-17; known on 2013-12-17; judged right by nshepperd on 2013-11-18.
-
Sheep Marketplace will cease operating within a month. ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-17; known on 2013-11-17; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-11-18.
-
I will try either Acme, Emacs, or both over the coming year. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by alecbrooks on 2012-11-09; known on 2013-11-09; judged wrong by alecbrooks on 2013-11-18.
-
I will still be using this in a year. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by alecbrooks on 2012-11-09; known on 2013-11-09; judged right by alecbrooks on 2013-11-18.
-
The price of one bitcoin on MtGox goes above $500 at some point before end of November 2013. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by tedks on 2013-11-15; known on 2013-12-01; judged right by tedks on 2013-11-17.
-
This LW comment of mine will not have a ratio of upvotes to total votes between 40% and 80% in three days ( 80% confidence; 5 comments )
Created by Gurkenglas on 2013-11-13; known on 2013-11-16; judged right by Gurkenglas on 2013-11-17.
-
Auburn will win today's football game against Georgia. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-17; known on 2013-11-18; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-17.
-
PCB finished and sent for printing by end of week 7 ( 30% confidence )
Created by Jach on 2013-10-23; known on 2013-11-15; judged wrong by Jach on 2013-11-17.
-
Time-lapse dolly motorized and controlled by uC by end of week 7 ( 30% confidence )
Created by Jach on 2013-10-23; known on 2013-11-15; judged wrong by Jach on 2013-11-17.
-
Auburn will complete a certain 3rd down in today's football game. ( 66% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-17; known on 2013-11-17; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-17.
-
Florida State will exceed 60 points in today's football game. ( 75% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-16; known on 2013-11-17; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-17.
-
Florida State will not try a fake punt (on a specific play). ( 99% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-16; known on 2013-11-16; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-16.
-
HP:MoR: Review-count of MoR to surpass UC within a year. ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-11-16; known on 2013-11-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-11-16.
-
Obama's approval rating will exceed 55% on average for the next 12 months (Nov 12 -> Nov 13) ( 46% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-12; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-16.
-
“Lindsay Lohan will be dead within 2 years.” ( 8% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-16; known on 2013-11-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-16.
-
China's one child policy will end before 2032 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-27; known on 2032-01-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-11-16.
-
I will get the three App Market classes with F ratings on Code Climate to E or above by the end of the day. ( 60% confidence )
Created by atroche on 2013-11-14; known on 2013-11-15; judged right by atroche on 2013-11-15.
-
Mark Cuban will lose his insider trading case ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-10-02; known on 2014-03-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-14.