Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 33% | 33% | 75% | 100% | 80% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 22 |
Displaying all predictions made by true. Filter by:
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Joe Biden runs for president in 2024 ( 33% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-13; known on 2024-01-16.
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Trump will not concede the election before inauguration day. ( 55% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by LukeS on 2020-11-14; known on 2021-01-22; judged right by LukeS on 2021-01-22.
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Joe Biden wins the 2024 presidential election ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-13; known on 2024-11-16.
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Trump will run for president in 2024 ( 23% confidence; 14 wagers )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-11-06; known on 2024-06-30.
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Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election ( 95% confidence; 26 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-11-04; known on 2020-12-01; judged right by Deepak on 2020-12-15.
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Trump wins a second term in office ( 48% confidence; 29 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-06-05; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by avi on 2020-11-07.
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Beto O'Rourke to win the 2020 Presidential election ( 4% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-12; known on 2020-11-20; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-12-11.
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[US Politics] Democratic candidates participating in the July debate to outnumber those participating in the June debate ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-12; known on 2019-08-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-01.
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[Game of Thrones] Viserion the ice dragon to revert to Daenerys Targaryen's control at least once by the end of the TV series ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-11; known on 2019-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-21.
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[Game of Thrones] Daenerys Targaryen's two remaining dragons Drogon and Rhaegal to both be alive and under DT's control at the end of the TV series ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-11; known on 2019-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-21.
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[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Sandor “The Hound” Clegane ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-21.
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[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Tyrion Lannister ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-21.
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[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Varys ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-21.
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[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Arya Stark ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-21.
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[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Bran Stark ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-21.
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[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Jon Snow ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-21.
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[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Night King ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-21.
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Robert Mueller to testify publicly before Congress before 2020 ( 66% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-09-04.
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US & China to announce end to trade war in Q2 2019 ( 38% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-01; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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A redacted version of the Mueller report is released before the end of April ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-05-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-19.
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Andrew Yang will win the Democratic nomination. ( 8% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by skateboard34 on 2019-03-25; known on 2020-07-20; judged wrong by skateboard34 on 2020-03-05.
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[Politics] A Democratic candidate other than Yang to propose UBI before the second debate ( 14% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-13; known on 2019-08-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-18.
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Number of human truck drivers in the US to fall by 50% by 2024 EOY ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-07; known on 2025-01-01.
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[Politics] Andrew Yang to be a guest on a major American late-night talk show before April 2019 EOM ( 36% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-05-01; judged wrong by amadeu on 2019-04-30.