Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 75% | 100% | 67% | 80% | 76% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 4 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 1 | 36 |
Displaying all predictions made by scav. Filter by:
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The scottish referendum vote will be >60% yes ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by scav on 2014-09-14; known on 2014-09-19; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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The scottish referendum vote will be 50-60% yes ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by scav on 2014-09-14; known on 2014-09-19; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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The scottish referendum vote will be less than 50% yes ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by scav on 2014-09-14; known on 2014-09-19; judged right by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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The margin of victory in the scottish referendum is less than 1%. ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-13; known on 2014-09-19; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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Islamic terrorist attack in the UK kills at least one this month. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-08-29; known on 2014-09-29; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-29.
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Scotland will vote NO on independence. ( 74% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-22; known on 2014-09-19; judged right by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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Scotland votes 'yes' for independence. ( 38% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-31; known on 2014-09-19; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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This year will DEFINITELY BE BETTER than the previous year. Last year really sucked. Please guys, work to make this real! Work to make this year RULE! ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Pandster on 2014-01-22; known on 2014-11-16; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
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Will google's new javascript replacemant, “Dart”, have significant use in the next 3 years ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by drpowell on 2012-10-16; known on 2015-10-16; judged wrong by drpowell on 2015-10-23.
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By 2020, it'll be common for some jobs to require your Klout score (or something similar) as part of the hiring criteria. ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-14.
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In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ( 9% confidence; 16 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-18; known on 2022-09-19; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-09-25.
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There will be press report of significant uproar in the U.S. in next 3 years against an anti-Christian video released on the internet (similar to anti muslim video but mirrored) ( 22% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-15; known on 2015-10-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-10-06.
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By the end of 2015, Windows Phone 8 (including successors based on it) will not have as much as 10% of market share, measured as either number of active phones or phones+tablets. ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by scav on 2012-08-02; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-31.
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Mitt Romney will not pick a minority or woman or non-Christian or atheist or unmarried or gay person as VP (i.e. no surprises!) ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by RobertLumley on 2012-08-11.
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Scotland will vote in favour of independence in the 2014 referendum ( 28% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by chimpsky on 2012-06-07; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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Windows will have greater than 6% market share of smart phones by March 2013 (12 months from now) ( 43% confidence; 6 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-06; known on 2013-03-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-06-15.
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There will be a referendum on Scottish independence ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by modulus on 2012-01-09; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by scav on 2014-09-14.
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Andrea Rossi's 1 MW plant based on his energy catalyzer invention will not succeed within a year. ( 96% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Kaj_Sotala on 2011-10-08; known on 2012-10-08; judged right by gwern on 2012-10-08.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky's book on rationality will be published within 3 years. ( 46% confidence; 25 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2014-10-04; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-10-04.
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Google will sell all hardware developing and producing parts of Motorola Mobile before 1. Jan 2012 ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2011-08-16; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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A 1MW cold-fusion reactor will NOT be demonstrated in October this year. ( 93% confidence; 18 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by scav on 2011-07-28; known on 2011-10-31; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-11-03.
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Apple will lose all its *NIX developer goodwill and become the equivalent of Microsoft — hated but a necessary evil. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by kyst on 2011-07-28; known on 2021-07-28; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-08-07.
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Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ( 47% confidence; 22 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-09; known on 2050-01-01.
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Bin Laden is still alive! ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by minhduc on 2011-05-04; known on 2011-07-04; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-04.
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The yes to AV vote will win by a narrow margin ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jase9r on 2011-04-24; known on 2011-05-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-05-07.
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2012 is not end of this world! ( 98% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-11; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
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'However, Android's gains will mostly be at the low end of the market; the iPhone will continue to outsell any single Android smartphone model by a wide margin.' —FtT ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-14; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-08-28.
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Mubarak will cease to be Egypt's President by 2012. ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-02-11.
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A Nobel prize in Physics will be awarded for unifying general relativity with quantum theory, with experimental evidence to back it up, and it won't be a string theory. ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by scav on 2011-01-11; known on 2020-10-31.
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Average daily global oil production (crude+condensate according to EIA figures) will not exceed 75 million barrels/day in any month of 2011 ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by scav on 2011-01-11; known on 2012-01-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-05.
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'Kim Jong Il steps down or dies this year' —scav ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-19.
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'Oil price will go over $100/barrel at some time this year' —scav ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by scav on 2011-03-03.
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'At least one head pastor of a Protestant megachurch in the US will be found to be engaging in homosexual activity. For purposes of this prediction “megachurch” means a church with regular attendance of 3000 people at Sunday services.' —JoshuaZ ( 32% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
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'General AI will not be made in 2011.' —JoshuaZ ( 97% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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3D Televisions using a technology that doesn't require expensive glasses to view in 3D will outsell those that do require such glasses by the end of 2011 ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by scav on 2011-01-05; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-31.
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katla volcano will not erupt in 2011 ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by scav on 2011-01-05; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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Oil prices at >=$120 by Jan 2012 ( 52% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-01.