Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 60% | 33% | 86% | 0% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 16 |
Displaying all predictions made by peterbarnett. Filter by:
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Dad gets a seat on the Otago Regional Council. ( 65% confidence )
Created by peterbarnett on 2022-08-02; known on 2022-12-08; judged right by peterbarnett on 2023-01-02.
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Conjecture is at least somewhat often referred to as “The ‘Ject’”, as judged by either Ian or Tamera saying it is (only one has to agree) on November 15th 2022. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by peterbarnett on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-11-15.
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I will continue to think that AI alignment (including governance, multiagent, field building etc) is the most important thing for me to work on July 27th 2023. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by peterbarnett on 2022-07-28; known on 2023-07-27.
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I will exercise at least 5 times in the week ending August 7th. ( 55% confidence )
Created by peterbarnett on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-08-08; judged wrong by peterbarnett on 2022-08-08.
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I will exercise at least 5 times in the week ending July 31st. ( 60% confidence )
Created by peterbarnett on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-08-01; judged wrong by peterbarnett on 2022-08-02.
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I will move to New York in 2022. Where “move” means that I have a bed which is mine in New York. ( 40% confidence )
Created by peterbarnett on 2022-07-28; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by peterbarnett on 2023-01-04.
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I will travel to New York in September 2022. ( 65% confidence )
Created by peterbarnett on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-10-01; judged wrong by peterbarnett on 2023-01-04.