Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 14% | 75% | 57% | 80% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 34 |
Displaying all predictions made by jacobgreenleaf. Filter by:
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Treasury to instruct the Fed to revalue U.S. gold deposits at $8,000/oz or more before 3Q26 ( 35% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf 8 days ago; known on 2026-07-01.
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Q3 2023 recession by NBER ( 95% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-09-23; known on 2025-04-01.
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Q2 2023 recession by NBER ( 80% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-09-23; known on 2024-12-31.
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27 USC 174 incremental revenues TY22+TY23 < 57.1 ( 99% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-09-14; known on 2025-01-01.
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Bank Term Funding Program renewed or other liquidity for banks' U.S. Treasuries provided on or before expiration ( 95% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-09-13; known on 2024-03-12.
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SpaceX most valuable company in the world by 2060 ( 75% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-09-09; known on 2060-01-01.
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The United States will default (not monetize) on its sovereign debt by the end of 2023. ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-03-25; known on 2024-01-01.
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The United States will monetize its sovereign debt by the end of 2023. ( 60% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-03-25; known on 2024-01-01.
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SPR below 300M by end of H1 2024 ( 60% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-07-02; known on 2024-07-11.
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SPR below 341M by end of 2024 ( 90% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-07-02; known on 2025-01-10.
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Case-Shiller National (CSUSHPINSA) will not increase above 303.757 until 30-yr fixed (MORTGAGE30US) is below 6.5% for the prior month, through June 2023. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2022-10-28; known on 2023-09-01.
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United States imports at least 500,000 physicians before 2030 ( 70% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-06-14; known on 2030-01-01.
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United States institutes price controls on physicians before 2030 ( 30% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-06-14; known on 2031-01-01.
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Strategic Petroleum Reserve below 250,000 on May 31 2024 ( 40% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-06-14; known on 2024-06-05.
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The debt ceiling suspension is extended beyond 2025 ( 35% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-06-10; known on 2025-02-01.
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Q2 real GDP growth < 0 (3rd print) ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-05-25; known on 2023-09-28; judged wrong by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-09-29.
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Trump indicted in Georgia between August 4 – 18 ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-05-25; known on 2023-08-19; judged right by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-08-20.
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First Republic Bank to enter receivership / FDIC control before May 8, 2023 ( 80% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-05-01; known on 2023-05-08; judged right by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-05-10.
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Software engineer salaries in the United States are going to plummet to the average of the global work force within the next 24 months ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-04-23; known on 2025-05-15.
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Griswold v. Connecticut to be overturned by 2025. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-04-09; known on 2025-01-01.
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26 USC 174 will be either retroactively postponed or rewritten to allow for at least 50% current deduction of software expenses for FY22 by October 18, 2023 ( 80% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-04-07; known 13 days ago; judged wrong by jacobgreenleaf 10 days ago.
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The U.S. federal debt ceiling is raised on or before June 30, 2023 ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-03-25; known on 2023-07-01; judged right by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-06-07.
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China will attempt an invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2025. ( 20% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2021-04-09; known on 2025-12-31.
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Elon Musk buys Silicon Valley Bank before April 30 ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-03-12; known on 2023-04-30; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-05-04.
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Marijuana will be unscheduled, taxed and regulated similar to alcohol at a federal level in the United States before 2025. ( 42% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-01-01; known on 2025-01-02.
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At least one more bank will be taken over by FDIC next week ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-03-12; known on 2023-03-17; judged right by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-03-17.
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status.twitter.com SSL certificate will be fixed before April 1, 2023 ( 50% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-03-07; known on 2023-04-01; judged wrong by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-04-02.
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Trump reelected in 2024. ( 31% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by bsl5265 on 2021-11-08; known on 2024-11-05.
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26 USC 174 will be either retroactively postponed or rewritten to allow for at least 50% current deduction of software expenses for FY22 by April 15, 2023 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-02-03; known on 2023-04-16; judged wrong by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-04-16.
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Twitter will suffer a large scale (global or multi-continent) outage lasting more than 1 hour on or before March 31, 2023 ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2022-11-20; known on 2023-04-01; judged right by adanvers on 2023-01-01.
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S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National (CSUSHPINSA) for June 2023 is less than 313.4. ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2022-06-08; known on 2023-09-01; judged right by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-08-29.
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If Trump is indicted in D.C., he will move for change-of-venue on the grounds that no impartial jury can be selected due to aggregate political prejudice of D.C. voters ( 84% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2022-08-26; known on 2028-01-01.
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Heroku will be sunset or at least rebranded (“Salesforce Cloud”) and closed off new registrations (e.g. “contact us”) by 2027. ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2022-08-25; known on 2027-01-01.
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Donald Trump is indicted as a result of the documents seized from Mar-a-Lago ( 47% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-08-10; known on 2025-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-31.
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At least one state will ban contraceptives before 2032. ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2022-07-26; known on 2033-01-01.
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At least one state will ban contraceptives before 2032. ( 35% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2022-07-26; known on 2024-01-01.
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Valve will release True Sight for The International 10 on or before June 30, 2022 ( 80% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2022-04-21; known on 2022-07-01; judged wrong by jacobgreenleaf on 2022-07-02.
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Elon Musk completes acquisition of Twitter ( 59% confidence; 36 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-14; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-10-30.
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Kyle Rittenhouse will be acquitted of count 6 (gun possession by minor) ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-11-10; known on 2021-12-15; judged right by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-11-19.
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Chesa Boudin will be recalled ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-08-26; known on 2022-06-08; judged right by jacobgreenleaf on 2022-06-12.
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Kyle Rittenhouse will be acquitted of count 4 (attempted first degree intentional homicide of Gaige P. Grosskreutz) ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-11-09; known on 2021-12-15; judged right by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-11-19.
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At least one large website (alexa 10k) or fortune-500 company's services will be disrupted by the Y38 problem ( 50% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-09-22; known on 2038-01-21.
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The U.S. Dollar will be less than 50% of global reserve currencies by 2040. ( 85% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-09-14; known on 2040-01-01.
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Ivermectin will be shown to be ineffective as a form of prophylaxis for COVID-19 before 2024. ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-09-03; known on 2025-01-01.
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Gavin Newsom will be recalled ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-08-26; known on 2021-10-22; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-09-23.
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The petrodollar will be dismantled by 2040. ( 51% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-01-19; known on 2040-01-01.
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Copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse will be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-08-26; known on 2024-01-01.
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New York, San Francisco or Los Angeles will impose a shelter-in-place order, close businesses, or limit group sizes on or before August 9, 2021 ( 60% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-07-19; known on 2021-08-10; judged wrong by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-08-12.
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Ever Given will exit the Suez Canal on or before March 30, 2021 ( 54% confidence; 26 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-03-25; known on 2021-03-30; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-03-31.
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Trump will attempt to pardon himself. ( 23% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-17; known on 2021-01-21; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-01-21.
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Joe Biden's administration will officially transition into power on schedule. ( 96% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by aspire43 on 2021-01-17; known on 2021-01-20; judged right by aspire43 on 2021-01-20.
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Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election ( 95% confidence; 26 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-11-04; known on 2020-12-01; judged right by Deepak on 2020-12-15.
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San Francisco will extend the shelter-in-place order beyond May 31st. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2020-05-02; known on 2020-06-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
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China will be revealed to have been faking data of COVID-19 confirmed cases by at least 30% on or before the end of year 2020. ( 51% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2020-04-08; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-01-01.
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San Francisco will extend the shelter-in-place order beyond May 3rd ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2020-04-01; known on 2020-05-04; judged right by jacobgreenleaf on 2020-05-02.
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San Francisco will extend the shelter-in-place order beyond April 7th ( 96% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2020-03-23; known on 2020-04-08; judged right by jacobgreenleaf on 2020-04-03.
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China will increase their cap on solar production in 2019 to at least 20 GW before the end of the year. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2019-01-26; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by jacobgreenleaf on 2020-03-23.
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China's cap on additional solar capacity for the year 2019 will be increased to at least 20 GW before the end of the year. ( 5% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2019-01-26; known on 2019-12-31.
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TSLA Q2 2019 net income will be $150M or less. ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-08-01; judged wrong by jacobgreenleaf on 2019-08-03.
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Software Engineer will become a protected term in California before 2028. ( 24% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2017-11-13; known on 2028-01-01.