Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 100% | 55% | 68% | 78% | 85% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 22 | 19 | 18 | 33 | 3 | 96 |
Displaying all predictions made by Deepak. Filter by:
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Boris Johnson PM in Jan 2023 ( 20% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by nathanpmyoung on 2022-07-06; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by nathanpmyoung on 2023-01-05.
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a nationwide ban on abortion goes into effect in the next 6 years, based on fetal personhood. ( 25% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.
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Subwoolfer is Ylvis ( 33% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Deepak on 2022-06-12; known on 2025-06-12.
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Bipartisan gun control legislation passed by the US Senate ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-06-12; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-06-24.
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World – Russian-Ukrainian war has collateral damage to a third party outside the borders of the current participants, or another participant outside CSTO becomes part of the war, before deadline. ( 29% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-04-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-03-06.
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Politics, US – Will the US announce intent to allow any Ukrainian citizen who reach its borders to stay until Russia is no longer attacking or occupying Ukraine, before July 1st 2022? ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-07-01.
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The USA military will use force to remove or help remove the USA government (troops in the streets or the capitol or some other institutions). ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sortega on 2022-02-10; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-01-01.
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The USA government will be removed before the end of 2022 (according to Wikipedia). ( 5% confidence; 18 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sortega on 2022-02-10; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2023-01-01.
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Russian troops amassed on border invade Ukraine ( 61% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-01-26; known on 2022-12-31; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-02-24.
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Russia will invade Kyiv before June 2022 ( 18% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Andref2015 on 2021-12-09; known on 2022-06-16; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-24.
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John McAfee faked his own death ( 4% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by XORXERY on 2021-06-24; known on 2030-04-01.
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NZ win the WTC final ( 55% confidence )
Created by Deepak on 2021-06-15; known on 2021-06-23; judged right by Deepak on 2021-07-07.
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P=NP or P≠NP will be proven in either direction by 2050 ( 31% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by scatterspace on 2021-06-14; known on 2050-12-31.
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Politics, US – The US government considers itself to be meeting the troop withdrawal requirements of the 'US-Afghanistan Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan' at the start of 2021-10-01. ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-04-18; known on 2021-10-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-10-17.
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Alexei Navalny (Alexei Anatolievich Navalny) (born 4 June 1976) dies within five (5) years ( 67% confidence; 21 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2021-04-13; known on 2026-04-13.
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Trump convicted by Senate before March 15 ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by krp.1902 on 2021-01-26; known on 2021-03-15; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-03-16.
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Trump convicted by senate in 2021 ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-17; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by MultiplyByZer0 on 2021-04-02.
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Politics, US – Donald Trump attempts to issue a pardon for himself before the end of the 20th of January 2021. ( 35% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-03; known on 2021-01-21; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-01-21.
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Derek Chauvin will be convicted of murder ( 49% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by enolan on 2020-06-17; known on 2021-04-30; judged right by Deepak on 2021-04-20.
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Kanye West will win the presidency in 2024 or 2028 ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-11-24; known on 2029-01-01.
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Mike Pence will become President before Joe Biden does ( 16% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by LukeS on 2020-11-21; known on 2021-01-21; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-01-21.
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Politics, US – Trump wins a majority of the electoral college votes before February 2021. ( 2% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-11-10; known on 2021-02-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Hungarian governing party Fidesz will lose the 2022 general election or lose its governing power before that election. ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by korakos on 2020-11-08; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by account on 2023-01-16.
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Republicans hold Senate in 2020 election ( 51% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Deepak on 2020-06-11; known on 2021-01-10; judged wrong by Deepak on 2021-01-07.
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Trump will run for president in 2024 ( 23% confidence; 14 wagers )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-11-06; known on 2024-06-30.
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Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election ( 95% confidence; 26 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-11-04; known on 2020-12-01; judged right by Deepak on 2020-12-15.
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Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021. ( 11% confidence; 17 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ren on 2020-11-01; known on 2021-11-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-11-01.
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The first randomized clinical trials of Vitamin D supplementation for COVID-19 will show a significant effect on the primary endpoint. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-10-27; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by srconstantin on 2020-11-17.
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China will successfully incorporate Taiwan by 2050 ( 32% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-10-22; known on 2051-01-01.
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A Trump-nominated Supreme Court Justice is confirmed to replace Ginsburg before the 2020 November election. ( 79% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Deepak on 2020-10-07; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by Deepak on 2020-10-27.
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A Trump-nominated Supreme Court Justice is confirmed to replace Ginsburg before the 2020 November election. ( 67% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Deepak on 2020-09-19; known on 2020-11-04.
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Trump dies of COVID-19 ( 6% confidence; 34 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by technillogue on 2020-10-02; known on 2021-01-22; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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The Swiss limitation initiative will fail ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Deepak on 2020-09-26; known on 2020-09-28; judged right by Deepak on 2020-09-27.
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The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life. ( 2% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Deepak on 2020-09-16; known on 2025-09-16.
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Greta Thunberg will win the Nobel Peace Prize. ( 48% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2020-09-10; known on 2020-10-09; judged right by Liging on 2020-11-15.
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PRC troops will be on the ground in California by 31 December 2030. ( 9% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by najdorf on 2020-09-10; known on 2030-12-31.
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Mitt Romney will endorse Joe Biden before the 2020 election ( 34% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-30; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-03.
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[Geopolitics , Belarus , Russia] Little Green Men (or equivalent) shows up in Belarus within 1 (one) month. ( 39% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2020-08-15; known on 2020-09-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2020-09-18.
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Pakistan beat England in first Test 2020 ( 60% confidence )
Created by Deepak on 2020-08-06; known on 2020-08-11; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-09.
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India and China's border dispute escalates to a battle fought more than 100 km from the border ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sam_jaques on 2020-08-03; known on 2021-08-03; judged wrong by sam_jaques on 2021-08-03.
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England will beat Ireland in the 2020-07-30 ODI ( 90% confidence )
Created by Deepak on 2020-07-30; known on 2020-07-30; judged right by Deepak on 2020-07-30.
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Anthony Fauci will become TIME magazine's person of the year 2020 ( 22% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-25; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2021-01-01.
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One or more participants in the Twitter hack is revealed to have been an employee of the Russian government ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-18; known on 2028-01-31.
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England will win the second Test against WI ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Deepak on 2020-07-16; known on 2020-07-21; judged right by Deepak on 2020-07-20.
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Congress will formally disestablish the reservations described in McGirt v. Oklahoma by the end of 2021 ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Deepak on 2020-07-09; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2022-01-05.
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England win the 3 match Test series against WI ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Deepak on 2020-07-09; known on 2020-07-28; judged right by Deepak on 2020-07-28.
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The West Indies win against England in the first Test ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Deepak on 2020-07-09; known on 2020-07-13; judged right by Deepak on 2020-07-12.
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The Washington Redskins will change their name by the end of 2020. ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Deepak on 2020-07-08; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Deepak on 2020-07-23.
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Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31 ( 13% confidence; 27 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by daveisright on 2020-07-02; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2020-12-31.
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Another Supreme Court justice will retire before the end of the year. ( 43% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-01; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-12-31.
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[The winner of The Big Flower Fight will be] Sarah + Jordan ( 15% confidence )
Created by Deepak on 2020-06-30; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-07-01.
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[The winner of The Big Flower Fight will be] Jim + Ralph ( 10% confidence )
Created by Deepak on 2020-06-30; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-07-01.
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[The winner of The Big Flower Fight will be] Jan + Henck ( 40% confidence )
Created by Deepak on 2020-06-30; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-07-01.
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[The winner of The Big Flower Fight will be] Ryan + Andrew ( 35% confidence )
Created by Deepak on 2020-06-30; known on 2020-07-01; judged right by Deepak on 2020-07-01.
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A COVID vaccine will be widely available in the USA by the end of January 2021 where widely available is defined as given to more than 10,000 people not as part of a clinical trial. ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by krazemon on 2020-06-28; known on 2021-02-01; judged right by Deepak on 2021-02-03.
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Politics, US – The New York times publishes an article containing both Scott Alexander's legal surname and a reference to SSC before the end of July 2020. ( 25% confidence; 20 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-26; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by ayegill on 2020-08-01.
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At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site ( 78% confidence; 13 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-06-24; known on 2021-01-02; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.
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Scott Alexander will be doxed by the NYT ( 38% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by akarlin on 2020-06-23; known on 2020-07-08; judged right by 1MillionAffen on 2021-06-22.
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[Top Chef will be won by] Stephanie ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Deepak on 2020-06-11; known on 2020-06-19; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-06-19.
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[Top Chef will be won by] Kevin ( 30% confidence )
Created by Deepak on 2020-06-11; known on 2020-06-19; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-06-12.
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[Top Chef will be won by] Bryan ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Deepak on 2020-06-11; known on 2020-06-19; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-06-19.
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[Top Chef will be won by] Melissa ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Deepak on 2020-06-11; known on 2020-06-19; judged right by Deepak on 2020-06-19.
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Democrats hold House in 2020 ( 78% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Deepak on 2020-06-11; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by Deepak on 2020-11-07.
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By the end of 2020, there is no implementation of Scottish indyref2 ( 96% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Deepak on 2020-06-11; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Deepak on 2021-01-01.
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Trump wins 2020 election ( 38% confidence; 21 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Deepak on 2020-06-11; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-11-07.
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North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020 ( 5% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Each of {Trump, Biden} will be president in at least one branch of the multiverse. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-06-01; known on 2100-01-01.
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[Biden's VP pick will be] Someone else ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by amadeu on 2020-05-22; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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[Biden's VP pick will be] Stacey Abrams ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2020-05-22; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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[Biden's VP pick will be] Maggie Hassan ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2020-05-22; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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[Biden's VP pick will be] Michelle Lujan Grisham ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2020-05-22; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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[Biden's VP pick will be] Elizabeth Warren ( 28% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2020-05-22; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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[Biden's VP pick will be] Gretchen Whitmer ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2020-05-22; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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[Biden's VP pick will be] Kamala Harris ( 35% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by amadeu on 2020-05-22; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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[Biden's VP pick will be] Amy Klobuchar ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2020-05-22; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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More than 300,000 people will die from corona in the US ( 70% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by daveisright on 2020-03-14; known on 2020-10-30; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10.
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[US FOMC July 2020 rate decision to be] leave rate unchanged ( 52% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-07-30; judged right by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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[US FOMC July 2020 rate decision to be] reduce rate ( 37% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-07-30; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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[US FOMC July 2020 rate decision to be] raise rate ( 9% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-07-30; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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By August 15, 2020, the Financial Post in Canada won't exist, and this column's link won't be available. opinion/lawrence-solomon-how-teslas-elon-musk-became-the-master-of-fake-business ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by saskboy on 2017-08-29; known on 2020-08-15; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-16.
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Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state ( 0% confidence; 35 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-10; known on 2025-01-01.
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Until the end of 2037, at no point in time will a person elected or otherwise selected by a political party, other than the Republican and Democratic parties, hold the office of President of the United States. ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2016-04-09; known on 2037-12-31.
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The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045. ( 25% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2015-11-24; known on 2045-01-01.
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By January 1, 2035 superconductor with critical temperature at least 200 K at 1 atmosphere of pressure will be discovered. ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-27; known on 2035-01-01.
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By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ( 54% confidence; 42 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by ZLM on 2014-02-10; known on 2025-01-01; judged unknown by lavalamp on 2014-08-21.
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By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150 ( 28% confidence; 20 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-16; known on 2085-01-01.
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The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025. ( 9% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.
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Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ( 47% confidence; 22 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-09; known on 2050-01-01.