Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 43% | 63% | 71% | 83% | 93% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 373 | 575 | 496 | 412 | 690 | 110 | 2656 |
Displaying all predictions made by gwern. Filter by:
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“By the end of the year 2020, a professional sports team that is part of either the National Football League, the National Basketball Association, Major League Baseball, the National Hockey League, or Major League Soccer will integrate and have a woman as ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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“In 2108, an independent, sentient artificial intelligence will exist as a corporation, both providing its services as well as making all financial and strategic decisions.” ( 69% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2108-12-31.
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“Neither major U. S. political party will hold conventions or indeed primaries to select their 2012 Presidential nominees.” ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2012-09-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-08.
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By 2025, there will be no 28th Amendment to the Constitution of the USA ( 64% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2025-01-01.
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“By 2025, the states will have voted on at least one constitutional amendment to cede US federal power to a global government.” ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2025-01-01.
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“By 2025 the scientific evidence of a hither-to-unknown large bi-pedal great ape will be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists.” ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2025-01-01.
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“In 2022 the US economy will no longer be held to be the world leader in global environmental degradation.” ( 79% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2022-12-31.
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“By 2020, no one will have won a Nobel Prize for work on superstring theory, membrane theory, or some other unified theory describing all the forces of nature.” ( 81% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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“At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.” ( 56% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2150-01-01.
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“By 2010, more than 50 percent of books sold worldwide will be printed on demand at the point of sale in the form of library-quality paperbacks.” ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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“By 2012, the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times will have referred to Russia as “the world leader in software development” or words to that effect.” ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.
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“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.” ( 35% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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By 2029 no computer – or “machine intelligence” – will have passed the Turing Test. ( 48% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2029-01-01.
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Phrack issue #67 will not be released August 2010. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2010-09-01; judged right by gwern on 2010-09-01.
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I will sign up for cryonics by December 31st 2010 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Larks on 2010-07-22; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by Larks on 2011-01-01.
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Bank of England Base rate will be 1% or less on 31 December 2010 ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by koenfucius on 2010-07-21; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by koenfucius on 2010-12-31.
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Will this prediction have an average prediction of less than 50%? (The only way to be right is if more people predict the opposite of you) ( 49% confidence; 31 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JFE on 2010-07-02; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by JFE on 2011-01-06.
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Julia Gillard will win the next federal election. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Frank on 2010-06-27; known on 2011-01-16; judged right by Frank on 2010-09-16.
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Mexico and Uruguay will tie. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by vhistory on 2010-06-22; known on 2010-06-22; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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I predict Stanley McChrystal will keep his job until at least July 22. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by vhistory on 2010-06-22; known on 2010-07-22; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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The world will not end December 25, 2012. ( 98% confidence; 28 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Houshalter on 2010-06-13; known on 2012-12-26; judged right by Qiaochu on 2012-12-26.
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Another company will come out with a game console next generation thats not Microsoft, Sony, or Nintendo. ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Houshalter on 2010-06-13; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-26.
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The price of gold will exceed $1300 USD / oz at some point in the next 6 months. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Matt Newport on 2010-06-11; known on 2010-12-16; judged right by dakyne on 2010-09-27.
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At least one current member will drop out of the Euro. ( 22% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Matt Newport on 2010-06-11; known on 2011-12-17; judged wrong by faws on 2011-12-17.
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California will receive a bailout from the Federal government in 2010. ( 26% confidence; 4 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by dakyne on 2010-05-11; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by dakyne on 2010-11-03.
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The spot price of silver will be $20/ounce or higher on December 31, 2010. ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by dakyne on 2010-05-11; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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Arena Pharmaceuticals' anti-obesity drug Lorcaserin will be FDA-approved by December 31, 2010. ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by dakyne on 2010-05-11; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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The spot price of NYMEX crude oil will be $100/barrel or higher on December 31, 2015. ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by dakyne on 2010-05-11; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-31.
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Bin Laden and USA are working together ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ravneetrox on 2010-05-06; known on 2030-05-06; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-06.
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The Indian economy will surpass the USA economy by 2020 ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ravneetrox on 2010-05-06; known on 2020-05-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-05-08.
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Justin Bieber's voice will break in the coming year. ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by DianneD on 2010-05-04; known on 2010-12-04; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-10.
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France will defeat Uruguay ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by World_Cup_predictor on 2010-05-04; known on 2010-06-12; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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South Africa will lose to Mexico in the opening match of the 2010 World Cup ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by World_Cup_predictor on 2010-05-04; known on 2010-06-12; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Military style big bang this winter ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide on 2010-05-04; known on 2010-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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In a few weeks, Dota Allstars 6.67c Ai will be released… ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mario1 on 2010-05-01; known on 2010-05-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Shogun Rua will defeat Lyoto Machida at UFC 113 ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by predicted on 2010-04-21; known on 2010-05-08; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Neither angelina joli nor brad pitt will die in the next 12 months ( 98% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Frank on 2010-04-18; known on 2011-07-02; judged right by Frank on 2011-07-02.
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Interest rates will be increased again in the next 4 months. ( 79% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Marz on 2010-04-13; known on 2010-08-13; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-08-13.
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there will be a vulcanic explosion in Japan! ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by guru on 2010-04-05; known on 2010-04-09; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-08-09.
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Pamela Anderson willl win Dancing with the stars! ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by saralehman on 2010-04-01; known on 2010-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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The share price of gold is going to increase by 5% by the end of 2010. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Marz on 2010-03-24; known on 2010-12-30; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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Mark Webber will crash out Australian F1 ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by thechadisgreat on 2010-03-24; known on 2010-03-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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United States will invade Australia and take over ( 10% confidence; 21 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by tjross on 2010-03-23; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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USA will be out of the Middle East by the end of 2012 ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by tjross on 2010-03-23; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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Barack Obama will get reelected in two years (not individual opinion) ( 66% confidence; 17 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by tjross on 2010-03-23; known on 2012-11-06; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.
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There will be another major natural disaster before the years over ( 66% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by tjross on 2010-03-23; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-06.
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Alonso will win the Australian F1 Grand Prix ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by p1 on 2010-03-22; known on 2010-03-29; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Muse will tour Australia again by the end of the year ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Chris31 on 2010-03-20; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-06.
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George Lucas is my father! ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by al3xal3x on 2010-03-18; known on 2010-04-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Tavi is actually JT Leroy's newest incarnation. ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide on 2010-03-18; known on 2011-03-18; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-03-18.
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Kevin Rudd will resign in April 2010. ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by thdurp on 2010-03-17; known on 2010-05-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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'Cats' will defeat 'Bombers' in Round 1 ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by AFL_Predictor on 2010-03-17; known on 2010-03-26; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Gareth Pugh will take over at McQueen. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide on 2010-03-15; known on 2011-03-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-03-18.
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If Australia win the Ashes back, Ricky ponting will retire from all forms of the game. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by d403 on 2010-02-28; known on 2011-02-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-02-09.
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Peter Garret will split from Labour to form another political party within the next six months. ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by d403 on 2010-02-28; known on 2010-09-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-09-01.
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Fringe will be renewed for a third season ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by MrHen on 2010-02-23; known on 2010-09-16; judged right by gwern on 2010-09-16.
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The Hon Tony Abbott MHR will never be the PM ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by thechadisgreat on 2010-02-23; known on 2011-04-16; judged wrong by mad on 2015-01-07.
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Australia Vs Italy in World Cup Final ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by skinnyasianbitch on 2010-02-15; known on 2010-07-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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men will continue to forget about valentine's day ( 99% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by vivaladam on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-10; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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is going to have sex with herself cos of phil ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by melmel on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-11; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Australia will change drinking age to 21 ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kassey on 2010-02-10; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-01.
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Michael Jackson is still alive and hiding at Neverland. ( 12% confidence; 18 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by sharidanbowman on 2010-02-10; known on 2012-06-24; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-06-24.
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Nicole Richie for a third baby in 2010 ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Holly on 2010-02-09; known on 2010-12-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-16.
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I will still identify as Theist in a year ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by MrHen on 2010-02-03; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by MrHen on 2011-01-01.
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I will finish my PhD degree within the next three years. ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2009-12-30; known on 2012-12-30; judged wrong by Pablo on 2012-09-27.
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The spot price of gold will be $1200/ounce or above on December 31, 2010. ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by dakyne on 2009-12-09; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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Unable to agree to any meaningful treaties on climate change, the UN security council will sanction several nuclear explosions in order to create a nuclear winter. ( 9% confidence; 19 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by scott.arbeitman on 2009-12-08; known on 2019-12-08; judged wrong by scott.arbeitman on 2019-12-08.
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Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time. ( 92% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Citizen553 on 2009-11-18; known on 2159-11-18; judged unknown by Jack on 2010-01-26.
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Absolutely nothing apocalyptic will happen in the year 2012. ( 98% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by thephilosiraptor on 2009-11-17; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by faws on 2013-01-01.
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All my immediate family members will be either alive or have had their brains successfully cryopreserved at the beginning of 2011. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by olimay on 2011-01-01.
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My Sony VAIO laptop will still be functional enough to watch/listen to streamed YouTube videos at the end of 2010, with no part upgrades costing > $15. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by olimay on 2011-01-01.
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CITCON Europe 2010 will happen in Prague ( 91% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by elefevre on 2009-11-12; known on 2010-03-01; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100. ( 21% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Rain on 2009-11-11; known on 2100-01-01.
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I will still be alive in 2200, meaning that the software that I am — or some modification of it — will still be running then. ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2200-01-01.
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Inflation in US will be higher that 7% by 2012 ( 36% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by borisbrev on 2009-11-04; known on 2012-12-16; judged wrong by ledflyd on 2012-12-16.
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Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it. ( 15% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2009-10-21; known on 3009-10-21.
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We will not have all American combat troops out of Iraq by next October. ( 62% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-20; known on 2010-10-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-02.
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The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020. ( 83% confidence; 21 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jack on 2009-10-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026. ( 14% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by freyley on 2009-10-20; known on 2026-10-20; judged unknown by freyley on 2009-10-21.
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If the Democratic Health Reform plan passes, private, group insurance premiums will increase more than 30% by 2015. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by freyley on 2009-10-19; known on 2015-10-19; judged right by freyley on 2015-10-22.
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Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes. ( 17% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jennifer on 2009-10-19; known on 2025-01-12.
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The mind body problem will not be solved. ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tobias_M on 2009-10-19; known on 2009-10-19; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Some group in Pakistan has already developed a super-intelligence (as of 2009). ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mjgeddes on 2009-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged wrong by Grognor on 2014-08-20.
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There will be strong evidence of technologically advanced (contemporary human level or greater) extraterrestrial life by 2016. ETA: evidence of a technologically advanced civilization existing or having existed somewhere outside our solar system. ( 6% confidence; 31 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
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Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009. ( 35% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2009-10-17; known on 3009-10-17.
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No military draft in the United States before 2020. ( 90% confidence; 33 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by komponisto on 2009-10-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence. ( 8% confidence; 28 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2009-10-17; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by Jack on 2009-11-16.
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In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older. ( 26% confidence; 25 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-17; known on 2070-12-31.
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In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older. ( 46% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-17; known on 2060-12-31.
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I will not be diagnosed with cancer before the age of 45. ( 96% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2019-01-01.
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There will be an earthquake in California that results in at least 1000 human deaths before 2012. ( 11% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
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There will be strong indications of extrasolar life by 2016. ( 19% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2016-01-01.
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One year after he leaves or is forced to leave his position as the U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner will be a full-time employee of Goldman Sacks. ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JamesMiller on 2009-10-16; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-06.
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One year after he leaves or is forced to leave his position as the U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner will be a full-time employee of a financial institution that has over $10 billion in assets. ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JamesMiller on 2009-10-16; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-06.
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Roman Polanski will be extradited to the United States before the end of next year. ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-16; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-01.
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Iran's current regime will be collapse within the next ten years. ( 29% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by kess3r on 2009-10-15; known on 2019-10-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-10-16.
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There will be a third party candidate that gets more than 5% in the 2012 election for president in the US. ( 19% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-15; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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The Pirate Party will enter the Parliament of Berlin (Berliner Abgeordnetenhaus) in the 2011 election. ( 44% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-15; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by faws on 2011-09-23.
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Monica will live in a different zipcode in 2014. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by freyley on 2009-10-15; known on 2014-10-15; judged right by freyley on 2014-10-15.
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The creators of this site will allow some sort of lesswrong.com ideology to leak into the behavior of this site and undermine an otherwise useful gadget. ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2010-10-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-27.