Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 100% | 73% | 75% | 73% | 79% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 5 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 33 | 3 | 71 |
Displaying all predictions made by Silver. Filter by:
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silver.com is a company website ( 80% confidence )
Created by Silver on 2014-10-07; known on 2014-10-07; judged right by Silver on 2014-10-07.
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The scottish referendum vote will be >60% yes ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by scav on 2014-09-14; known on 2014-09-19; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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The margin of victory in the scottish referendum is less than 1%. ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-13; known on 2014-09-19; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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Islamic terrorist attack in the UK kills at least one this month. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-08-29; known on 2014-09-29; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-29.
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Assange leaves the embassy within a month ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-08-18; known on 2014-09-18; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-18.
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The situation on Ukraine will turn into international conflict before end of 2014 and battles will be fought on Polish territory. ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by TeMPOraL on 2014-08-14; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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Barack Obama will do the Ice Bucket Challenge this year. ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-08-15; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Mati on 2014-08-27.
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Edward Snowden to be awarded the 2014 Nobel Peace Prize ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-19; known on 2014-10-10; judged wrong by clemux on 2014-10-11.
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Vladimir Putin to be awarded the 2014 Nobel Peace Prize ( 1% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-19; known on 2014-10-10; judged wrong by qznc on 2014-10-10.
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Sara will feel “normal” from Sept 1 to Sept 7 ( 85% confidence )
Created by Silver on 2014-07-14; known on 2014-09-08; judged right by Silver on 2014-08-12.
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Scotland will vote NO on independence. ( 74% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-22; known on 2014-09-19; judged right by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 was struck by a meteorite causing rapid disintegration. Alternatively, aircraft lengthening redesign gave way causing rapid disintegration. ( 10% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by refnum on 2014-03-11; known on 2014-04-30; judged wrong by procran on 2014-05-05.
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World War 3 will start by december 2014 ( 1% confidence; 29 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by refnum on 2014-03-03; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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Crimea or similar territory to be recognized by at least one country as not part of Ukraine by 2016-01-01. ( 44% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by simplicio on 2014-02-28; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Silver on 2014-03-27.
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Scotland votes 'yes' for independence. ( 38% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-31; known on 2014-09-19; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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No one will win Sam Harris's prize for convincing him that his book is wrong ( 87% confidence; 19 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Omid on 2013-09-01; known on 2014-11-01; judged right by Matt2000 on 2014-11-01.
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The EU will essentially break up into groups of countries with different worldviews within the next 3 years. Prediction date 2nd November, 2011. ( 10% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Fledi on 2011-11-02; known on 2014-11-02; judged wrong by mad on 2014-11-02.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky's book on rationality will be published within 3 years. ( 46% confidence; 25 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2014-10-04; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-10-04.