Upcoming Predictions
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Binance goes bankrupt ( 49% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-17; known on 2024-01-01.
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'2023 Dinosaur facsimiles are cloned from computer-generated DNA.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2024-01-01.
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'Borneo’s rainforests have been wiped from the map' by 2023 ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2024-01-01.
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Kinetic war between US and China ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-02-12; known on 2024-01-01.
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“That by 2024 “artificial” life emerging somewhere out of the soup of human technology will be given a Latin taxonomic name by biologists and others and declared viable for study.” ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2024-01-01.
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I finish my PhD (wrote thesis, passed viva) ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sam_jaques on 2020-08-01; known on 2024-01-01.
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I successfully finish my Goodreads challenge (80 books) (motivation market) ( 90% confidence )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-12; known on 2024-01-01.
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'Turkey becomes self-sufficient in energy production' by 2023 ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2024-01-01.
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Geraldo Alckmin's (Brazilian vice-president-elect) role in 2023 will be regarded as one of Lula's right arms in governance ( 70% confidence )
Created by DanCoimbra on 2022-11-19; known on 2024-01-01.
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TikTok is banned from Android and Apple app stores in the US by 2024 ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-03-28; known on 2024-01-01; judged unknown by GeoffR on 2023-04-03.
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By 2024, either a) group isomorphism problem will be shown to be equivalent to the graph isomorphism problem or b) the group isomorphism will be shown to be in P. ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-17; known on 2024-01-01.
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Deepmind claims to pass the Turing test by the end of 2023 ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-02-14; known on 2024-01-01.
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Will the slope for the linear regression between range and Brier score be non-negative for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01.
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Phthalate exposure in utero link to reduced intelligence to be confirmed/replicated by at least two other studies by January 1, 2024 ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-15; known on 2024-01-01.
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Netanyahu steps down as prime minister any time between now and 2024 ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-03-27; known on 2024-01-01.
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I move back from London ( 27% confidence )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-06-02; known on 2024-01-01.
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Will manifold.markets exist in 2024? ( 80% confidence )
Created by duck_master on 2023-07-02; known on 2024-01-01.
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I will read one serious book on quantum field theory by end 2023 Depends on finishing my study of general relativity. ( 30% confidence )
Created by waveman on 2022-12-31; known on 2024-01-01.
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Fracking will be banned in the United States by 2024 ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lisalister on 2014-09-07; known on 2024-01-01.
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https://bugs.launchpad.net/ubuntu/source/electric/bug/475181 is still a valid bug in GNU electric 9.06+dfsg-1 ( 94% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-04; known on 2024-01-01.
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Will the intercept of the aggregated linear regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to zero? ( 52% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.
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I will weight less than 67kg at end 2023 currently 72kg ( 60% confidence )
Created by waveman on 2022-12-31; known on 2024-01-01.
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I will compete studying general relativity to my satisfaction by end 2023 ( 35% confidence )
Created by waveman on 2022-12-31; known on 2024-01-01.
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I won't intentionally view any pornographic material in 2023 ( 44% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by panashe on 2023-01-17; known on 2024-01-01.
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Zuckerberg wins against Musk (cond the match happens, cond no technology used in/immediately before battle) ( 77% confidence )
Created by atzeje on 2023-06-23; known on 2024-01-01.
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New Calvin and Hobbes strips released before 2024 ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Omid on 2013-10-11; known on 2024-01-01.
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SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant will be generally considered a lab leak before 2024 ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2021-12-23; known on 2024-01-01.
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WWIII will include Turkey as a participant ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2024-01-01.
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By the end of 2020, more than half of the babies born that year are going to be genomically sequenced as soon as they're born. ( 4% confidence; 10 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-25; known on 2024-01-01.
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Scientists find evidence of new homo species in North America great lakes area that lived ~14ky ago ( 5% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-22; known on 2024-01-01.
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First Starship attempt to reach orbit or near orbit will either never reach supersonic speed or will break up before reaching Max Q. ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-12-23; known on 2024-01-01.
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Elon Musk steps down as CEO of Tesla ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-02-27; known on 2024-01-01.
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Will the mean squared error of the predicted to the actual Brier score for the questions be better on logistic fit than the exponential fit, for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01.
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By 2024, high frequency trading will be significantly reduced in the US (either by regulation or by diminishing profits) ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-20; known on 2024-01-01.
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Will the modal forecast horizon of the logistic regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 4.18 days? ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.
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'A permanent cure for migraine is available' by 2023 ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2024-01-01.
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early election call in ontario ( 51% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-26; known on 2024-01-01.
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Will the modal forecast horizon of the exponential-ish regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 4.64 days? ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.
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Disclosure of interaction with intelligent aliens by January 1, 2024 ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-01; known on 2024-01-01.
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US citizen killed by US government in drone strike on continental US soil before 2023 ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-13; known on 2024-01-01.
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Conditioned on his political affiliation being outed before the year 2024, Mark Zuckerberg will be outed as a Republican ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-09; known on 2024-01-01.
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I will have my first paper accepted for publication by the end of 2024. ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jakebeardsley on 2021-12-17; known on 2024-01-01.
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American troops participate in an armed conflict in Venezuela before 2024 ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-02-25; known on 2024-01-01.
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A Chinese military vessel docks at Thitu by 2024 ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-12; known on 2024-01-01.
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Elon Musk steps down as CEO of Twitter ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-19; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-31.
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An alive human from the Mars One organisation will have been on Mars before January 1st 2024. ( 6% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-03-09; known on 2024-01-01.
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At least 40 states will have some form of legal cannabis by 2024 ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-09; known on 2024-01-01.
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Tezos to surpass Ada/Cardano in marketcap at end of 2023 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2024-01-01.
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I will publish at least one scientific paper in a peer-reviewed journal before the end of 2023. ( 40% confidence )
Created by aarmai19 on 2023-04-05; known on 2024-01-01.
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There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023. ( 66% confidence; 19 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by qap on 2013-09-21; known on 2024-01-01.