Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Joe Biden won't be on the ballot in November. ( 5% confidence; 20 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2020-09-03; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-11-19.
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The first randomized clinical trials of Vitamin D supplementation for COVID-19 will show a significant effect on the primary endpoint. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-10-27; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by srconstantin on 2020-11-17.
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When I check, there will turn out to have been historical examples of hacks/attacks on pharmaceutical companies ( 55% confidence )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-16; known on 2020-11-18; judged right by srconstantin on 2020-11-17.
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I find that pumpkin seeds do actually make a difference to my sleep quality, that the initial experience wasn't just placebo ( 60% confidence )
Created by platypus42 on 2020-08-15; known on 2020-10-15; judged right by platypus42 on 2020-11-17.
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There will be riots and/or civil unrest, more extreme or on a larger scale than the the BLM protests and riots, in conjunction with the 2020 presidential election. ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by EliTyre on 2020-08-17; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by ayegill on 2020-11-16.
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Apple made <25% profits in 2019 ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-16; known on 2020-11-16; judged right by srconstantin on 2020-11-16.
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A new US Political party will come to power by 2020 ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Isaac on 2011-10-01; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-11-16.
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A nuclear weapon will be detonated in a non-test scenario before November 2020. ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by trishume on 2016-11-10; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-11-16.
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Amash gets the R nomination in 2020, conditional on Trump not getting it. ( 2% confidence )
Created by evand on 2020-05-09; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by evand on 2020-11-16.
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Greta Thunberg will win the Nobel Peace Prize. ( 48% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2020-09-10; known on 2020-10-09; judged right by Liging on 2020-11-15.
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Greta Thunberg will win the Nobel Peace Prize. ( 48% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2020-09-10; known on 2020-10-09; judged right by Liging on 2020-11-15.
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Joe Biden won't be on the ballot in November. ( 5% confidence; 20 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2020-09-03; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-11-19.
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Joe Biden won't be on the ballot in November. ( 5% confidence; 20 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2020-09-03; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-11-19.
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Donald Trump will win the electoral college votes ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Liging on 2020-11-03; known on 2020-11-16; judged right by Liging on 2021-02-01.
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Donald Trump will win the electoral college votes ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Liging on 2020-11-03; known on 2020-11-16; judged right by Liging on 2021-02-01.
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Donald Trump will win the electoral college votes ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Liging on 2020-11-03; known on 2020-11-16; judged right by Liging on 2021-02-01.
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Biden wins in 2020 US elections (just ticking off boring politics things) ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by akarlin on 2020-06-17; known on 2020-11-15; judged right by akarlin on 2020-11-15.
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@iabvek's presential and senate forecasts (see https://twitter.com/iabvek/status/1323522647678873600) will jointly hve a higher (i.e., worse/less accurate) Brier score than 538's forecast ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-11-03; known on 2020-11-14; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-11-14.
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Trump will win a second term ( 46% confidence; 74 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2020-11-08; judged wrong by regex on 2020-11-20.
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There will be an attempted assassination (including uncovered/failed assassination plots) of Donald Trump before his term ends (20 Jan 2021) ( 49% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com on 2017-07-25; known on 2021-01-21; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-12.
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Trying cyclical focustime will increase rescuetime score above 75 for week ending November 8th ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by dstephens99 on 2020-10-29; known on 2020-11-08; judged wrong by dstephens99 on 2020-11-11.
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Donald Trump will win the 2020 presidential election. ( 32% confidence; 20 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by CoreyS on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by galaga on 2020-11-11.
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RCB wins IPL 2020. ( 8% confidence )
Created by galaga on 2020-11-03; known on 2020-11-11; judged wrong by galaga on 2020-11-11.
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P posts his podcast to lbry ( 65% confidence )
Created by grin on 2020-09-10; known on 2020-11-10; judged wrong by grin on 2020-11-10.
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Apple will release a Macbook or Macbook Pro that uses a CPU designed by someone other than Intel or AMD. ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by quanticle on 2019-12-29; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-10.
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European pharma companies do not have significantly lower profits than American pharma companies. (In 2019 or earlier) ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-10; known on 2020-11-10; judged wrong by srconstantin on 2020-11-10.
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COVID, Germany – COVID death counts will go up whithin 8 weeks (Karl Lauterbach on Twitter) ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NickN on 2020-08-20; known on 2020-10-20; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10.
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MLB season is shut down or significantly altered (eg. introduce a bubble) ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-31; known on 2020-10-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10.
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More than 300,000 people will die from corona in the US ( 70% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by daveisright on 2020-03-14; known on 2020-10-30; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10.
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Donald Trump would contest in the 2020 elections. ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by DragonGod on 2017-06-16; known on 2020-11-07; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10.
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[Trump ] recovers and wins ( 31% confidence )
Created by technillogue on 2020-10-02; known on 2020-11-06; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10.
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[Trump ] recovers and looses ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by technillogue on 2020-10-02; known on 2020-11-06; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10.
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EIther Trump or Sanders will be president, and it won't change my life at all. ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ntrueman on 2020-02-23; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10.
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By election day 2020, Donald Trump's tax returns are published ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-06-05; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10.
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At least one year of Trump's tax documents are published by the New York Times between now and the 2020 election ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-05-22; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10.
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The Republicans will not win the presidential election in 2020. ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by burning.harvest on 2017-05-19; known on 2020-11-09; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10.
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There will be a flood of positive news stories about Hydroxychloroquin the week after the presidential election ( 15% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jgvergo on 2020-04-23; known on 2020-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10.
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The US Military's $375M spending on robotics is less than the private sector's investment in self-driving cars ( 70% confidence )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-10; known on 2020-11-10; judged right by srconstantin on 2020-11-10.
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James Randi will live to be 93 years old. ( 44% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2011-12-05; known on 2021-08-07; judged wrong by gav on 2020-11-10.
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The number of content pages on the English Wikipedia, as reported at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Statistics, will reach 6 million on or before January 1, 2021. ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-30; known on 2021-01-02; judged right by gav on 2020-11-10.
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Alcor will perform >=1 cryopreservations in 2020. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by gav on 2020-11-10.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 1 million ( 40% confidence; 45 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-09.
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Whoever loses the American Presisential 2020 election will accept the results and there will not be any constitutional crisis or attempt to overturn the vote. ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Reactionaryhistorian on 2020-09-21; known on 2021-01-21; judged wrong by Reactionaryhistorian on 2020-11-09.
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Kim Jong Un confirmed dead or vegetative state by end of June 2020 ( 23% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-04-26; known on 2020-06-30; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-01-04.
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Kim Jong Un confirmed dead or vegetative state by end of June 2020 ( 23% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-04-26; known on 2020-06-30; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-01-04.
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The 2020 presidential election will be Donald Trump v. Oprah Winfrey. ( 3% confidence; 25 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2017-01-16; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
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The 2020 presidential election will be Donald Trump v. Oprah Winfrey. ( 3% confidence; 25 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2017-01-16; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 16 ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-08.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 17 ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-08.
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Libertarian Party wins presidency in 2020. ( 3% confidence; 20 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-08-26; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.