Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 31% | 100% | 63% | 86% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 4 | 13 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 35 |
Displaying all predictions made by Emmanuel M. Smith. Filter by:
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At least 2 of the popular news aggregation services (Feedly, Inoreader, Digg Reader, NewsBlur, The Old Reader) will use their RSS aggregation apps as their main source of revenue, sustaining their business. ( 97% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Emmanuel M. Smith on 2017-05-26; known on 2021-05-02; judged right by stepan on 2021-07-10.
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The main character in Bird Man would swap the prop gun for a real one and shoot himself. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Emmanuel M. Smith on 2015-01-04; known on 2017-05-26; judged right by Emmanuel M. Smith on 2015-01-04.
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Bill will get hit by a train in it's a beautiful day. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Emmanuel M. Smith on 2015-03-01; known on 2017-05-26; judged wrong by Emmanuel M. Smith on 2015-03-01.
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As a normal member of the public, if you visit America (California, etc.) you will be able to order a lift service (Uber, etc.) without a human driver at the wheel, for a price similar to the rates of current lift services, adjusted for inflation. ( 57% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Emmanuel M. Smith on 2017-05-26; known on 2022-06-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-06-03.
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I will complete my PhD within +-3 months of the scheduled time frame. ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Emmanuel M. Smith on 2017-05-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Emmanuel M. Smith on 2020-02-15.
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I will get above average on the PSAT. ( 91% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by burning.harvest on 2017-05-19; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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Sheffield is 50 miles away from Bristol. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Emmanuel M. Smith on 2015-03-02; known on 2015-03-02; judged wrong by Emmanuel M. Smith on 2015-03-02.
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HP MoR: Hat & Cloak is Voldemort, but not Quirrel ( 23% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-03-16; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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Less than 10 people will die of Ebola in Germany within the next year ( 87% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by qznc on 2014-10-21; known on 2015-10-21; judged right by Josh Holland on 2015-10-21.
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Eliezer will state that he has finished writing HPMOR by the end of 2014. ( 33% confidence; 19 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Calien on 2014-08-19; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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My laptop will still be properly functional and in use six months from now. ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-06-17; known on 2014-12-18; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-12-19.
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Half-Life 3 is released in 2014. ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by tedks on 2014-03-19; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-31.
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Chris Dixon: Amazon.com will be using bitcoins in 5 years (by 1/1/2019) ( 33% confidence; 26 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-12-13; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.