Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 51% | 60% | 66% | 81% | 92% | 97% | |
Sample Size | 137 | 234 | 231 | 257 | 634 | 119 | 1612 |
Displaying all predictions made by PseudonymousUser. Filter by:
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I will not look at porn from now until January 1, 2015. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-06.
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I will not masturbate from now until January 1, 2015. ( 10% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-06.
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My guess was correct. ( 90% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-28; known on 2013-11-28; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-28.
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I will not masturbate from now until January 1, 2015. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-30.
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I will not look at porn from now until January 1, 2015. ( 99% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-30.
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The Pope will be assassinated. ( 2% confidence; 35 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-11-28; known on 2028-11-28.
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3 times the square root of 2 exceeds 4. ( 99% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-26; known on 2013-11-26; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-26.
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I will get a 100 on algorithms homework 8. ( 75% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-22; known on 2013-12-05; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-05.
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I will get at least a 90 on algorithms homework 8. ( 90% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-22; known on 2013-12-05; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-05.
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I will watch one or more episodes of Game of Thrones Season 4 before 2015 ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-25; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-05-12.
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Miami will beat Carolina (NFL) today. ( 55% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-24; known on 2013-11-24; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-24.
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Bitcoin price on 2014-01-01: < 50$ (mtgox prices) ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ArisKatsaris on 2013-12-31.
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Barack Obama to attempt to run for a third term as President (either through Constitutional amendment or other method). ( 0% confidence; 41 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-24; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Assassination Market will still be up in 1 year. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-23; known on 2014-11-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-11-24.
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Assassination Market will still be up in 5 years. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-23; known on 2018-11-23; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-09-20.
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Our professor will reveal the homework answer before it is due. ( 0% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-22; known on 2013-11-23; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-22.
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LW Survey calibration answer. ( 20% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-22; known on 2013-11-22; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-22.
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I will get a 100 on algorithms homework 8. ( 90% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-22; known on 2013-11-26.
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Bitcoin falls to a value of less than 1$ per Bitcoin by the end of 2014. (prediction inspired by http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1qvbzk/bloomberg_us_agencies_to_say_bitcoins_offer/cdh3ty2 ) ( 2% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-20; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.
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Bitcoin <$230 on Bitstamp at the start of 1 December 2013 ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-17; known on 2013-12-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-12-01.
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Massive (20%+ of network) blockchain split (>=120 blocks) in BitCoin before 2015 ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-17; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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“Story of My Life” by One Direction will be in the top 3 tracks for the United States on Spotify on or before January 17, 2014. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-17; known on 2014-01-18; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-12.
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Auburn will win today's football game against Georgia. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-17; known on 2013-11-18; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-17.
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Auburn will complete a certain 3rd down in today's football game. ( 66% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-17; known on 2013-11-17; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-17.
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Florida State will not try a fake punt (on a specific play). ( 99% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-16; known on 2013-11-16; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-16.
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Florida State will exceed 60 points in today's football game. ( 75% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-16; known on 2013-11-17; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-17.
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I will switch to a primary music player that is not foobar2000, before 2015 ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-16; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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I will write a > 200 line non-web/WebView mobile application before 2015 ( 20% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-15; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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I will write a > 100 line Python program or modify > 100 same-program lines of Python in 2014 ( 93% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-15; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-05-12.
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I will switch to Emacs as my primary editor for writing code, before 2015 ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-15; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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I will switch to a primary non-Windows desktop or laptop before 2015 ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-15; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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I will watch any of Homeland 3×08 – 3×12 before 2014 ( 0% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-15; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
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By 2015, youtube.com will have an option (or default) that serves HTML5 video for >80% of the videos linked on their homepage. ( 70% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-15; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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Bitcoin >$9000 by February 2014. ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-15; known on 2014-02-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-01.
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The Labour party gain an absolute majority in the next British general election ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by a0c4a123f7 on 2013-11-13; known on 2015-05-09; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-05-08.
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My default Anki deck will contain equal to or greater than 20,000 cards before 2014. ( 95% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-11-12; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-12-17.
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Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 USA election. ( 43% confidence; 38 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2013-11-11; known on 2016-11-30; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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The Bills will score a touchdown on a certain drive today. ( 33% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-10; known on 2013-11-10; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-10.
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The first typo is correct. ( 80% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-09; known on 2013-11-12; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-10.
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I will get more than 85 points on algorithms HW7. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-09; known on 2013-11-30; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-19.
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I will get exactly 85 points on HW7 for algorithms. ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-09; known on 2013-11-30; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-19.
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98b6e645ddd64fd3cefb3f34de1c4b6321c690f6adb394aad68bde3511d6a5f2367a88fe91ca2b44b396c0865a98015d58a1fa4a761a88c92fad7a12b3e599d5 ( 95% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-08; known on 2013-11-10; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-09.
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The Gladwell talk is in Alumni Arena. ( 80% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-06; known on 2013-11-06; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-06.
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43a4c3b7d0a0654e1919ad6e7cbfa6f8d41bcce8f1320fbe511b6d7c38609ce5a2d39328e02e9777b339152987ea02b3f8adb57d84377fa7ccb708658b7d2edc ( 74% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-03; known on 2014-06-03; judged right by gwern on 2014-06-03.
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“Cups” was named so because it uses cups as instruments. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-03; known on 2013-11-03; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-03.
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Dragos Ruiu's “badBIOS” claims will be verified as true and due to a attack package akin to Flame/Stuxnet ( 24% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-01; known on 2015-11-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-11-01.
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BoB: MtGox will support Litecoin on its exchange by year end 2013. ( 20% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by tedks on 2013-11-01; known on 2014-01-02; judged wrong by nshepperd on 2014-01-03.
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[tredactedw] will win the pie-eating contest. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-01; known on 2013-11-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-01.
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The “unfortunate” comment was made by [redacted]. ( 70% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-30; known on 2013-10-31; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-30.
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My team will win IEEEXtreme. ( 0% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-26; known on 2013-11-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-30.
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I will get some unexpected points on Problem 2 of 10-11 algorithms homework. ( 33% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-11; known on 2013-11-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-30.
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My friend added me on Facebook. ( 33% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-25; known on 2013-10-25; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-25.
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I will not live at home next year. ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-23; known on 2014-09-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-09-01.
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Over 95% percent of former student athletes have made a donation to the UB annual fund. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-23; known on 2013-10-23; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-23.
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The algorithm I specified for Question 2c on the midterm was incorrect. ( 75% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-23; known on 2013-11-06; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-23.
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The bridge to Goat Island will be open. ( 50% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-23; known on 2013-10-23; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-23.
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Our landline phone will be fixed when we check. ( 80% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-23; known on 2013-10-23; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-23.
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The Niagara Falls will be lit up when we visit. ( 95% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-23; known on 2013-10-23; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-23.
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I will attempt the Uberman sleep schedule over winter break 2013-14 and last at least 7 days (take 42 naps on the schedule without other sleep, and wake up from the 42nd nap on time). ( 19% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-22; known on 2014-01-26; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-26.
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I will not attempt the Uberman sleep schedule over winter break 2013-14. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-22; known on 2014-01-26; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-26.
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I will attempt the Uberman sleep schedule over winter break 2013-14. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-22; known on 2014-01-26.
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I will get a ticket to the Hillary Clinton event on Wednesday. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-21; known on 2013-10-21; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-21.
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I will get an A- in algorithms. ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-20; known on 2013-12-25; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-16.
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The price of Bitcoin will be <=$50 before 20 December 2013. ( 6% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-19; known on 2013-12-20; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-20.
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I will get a homework average of at least 95% for the whole semester for algorithms. ( 69% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-16; known on 2013-12-25; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-13.
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I will get a homework average of at least 92.5% for the whole semester for algorithms. ( 73% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-16; known on 2013-12-25; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-13.
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I will get at least 89% on the algorithms final. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-16; known on 2013-12-25; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-16.
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I will get at least 54 points on Part II of the algorithms midterm. ( 69% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-16; known on 2013-11-06; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-18.
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I got more than 29 points on Part I of my algorithms midterm. ( 43% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-16; known on 2013-11-06; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-03.
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I got less than 29 points on Part I of my algorithms midterm. ( 13% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-16; known on 2013-11-06; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-03.
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The Hawaiian punch will be gone from the fridge. ( 80% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-15; known on 2013-10-15; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-15.
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There won't be any questions involving little-omega or little-o notation on the algorithms midterm this week. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-15; known on 2013-10-19; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-18.
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My friend will get the right answer in algorithms class on 10/11/2013. ( 80% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-11; known on 2013-10-11; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-11.
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[redactedal] was the one calling my house this morning. ( 70% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-11; known on 2013-10-11; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-11.
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[mredactedw] will get an A in algorithms this semester. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-11; known on 2013-12-25; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-16.
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I will get an A in algorithms this semester. ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-11; known on 2013-12-25; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-16.
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Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-10; known on 2014-04-10; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-04-10.
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USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021 ( 4% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Omid on 2013-10-10; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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I will receive at least 50 special comments on my special Facebook status before I go to bed tomorrow. ( 20% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-10; known on 2013-10-12; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-11.
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I will already have a comment on my special Facebook status when I log on now. ( 60% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-10; known on 2013-10-10; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-10.
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I will be asked out by a girl before the end of the Spring 2014 semester. ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-09; known on 2014-05-10; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-05-10.
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I will attend Kent Hack Enough 2013. ( 25% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-09; known on 2013-10-18; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-11.
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The Buffalo Bills will make the playoffs during the 2013-2014 NFL season. ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-16.
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Ross William Ulbricht will not be found guilty of any charges, whether through acquittal, or charges not being brought, or any other reason. ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by tedks on 2013-10-02; known on 2015-10-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-02-04.
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Someone I was just sitting with who left will be in another room I'm about to go visit. ( 5% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-02; known on 2013-10-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-02.
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Government shutdown to end by October 25 ( 71% confidence; 21 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-10-01; known on 2013-10-25; judged right by nshepperd on 2013-10-17.
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The New England Patriots will win their September 29, 2013 game against the Atlanta Falcons. ( 80% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-09-30; known on 2013-09-30; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-09-30.
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The Buffalo Bills will win their September 29, 2013 game against the Baltimore Ravens. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-09-29; known on 2013-09-29; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-09-29.
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“I make the falsifiable prediction that during Pope Francis's tenure the Catholic Church will shrink, its proportional membership will diminish and its contributions per member will drop.” — EY (on Facebook) ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-09-20; known on 2023-09-20.
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No one will win Sam Harris's prize for convincing him that his book is wrong ( 87% confidence; 19 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Omid on 2013-09-01; known on 2014-11-01; judged right by Matt2000 on 2014-11-01.
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In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia. ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Omid on 2013-08-22; known on 2034-06-01.
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HPMOR: Dumbledore is Grindelwald ( 2% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dusk on 2013-08-20; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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Jeff Bezos will use his influence as owner of the Washington Post to run for Senate by 2020 ( 11% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by workbean on 2013-08-06; known on 2020-01-16; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-17.
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Rand Paul will win the presidential election. He will go against the NSA, surveillance, drone strikes… all the “hot issues” for the new generation. Thousands of people will register as Republicans and vote for him to fight for a free Internet. ( 3% confidence; 21 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by tinatoys on 2013-08-03; known on 2016-11-06; judged wrong by jgauthier on 2016-11-07.
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Within five years, Gwern will be hired as a “statistician columnist” by a mainstream blog; “mainstream blog” is defined as a blog with no less than 1/6th of the annual traffic theverge.com currently gets. ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by halfwit on 2013-07-13; known on 2018-07-14; judged wrong by enolan on 2018-08-27.
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Anyone in #lesswrong-prog will have a rudimentary or better “Vine for Audio” accessible online before 2013-07-08 00:00 UTC ( 9% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-07-02; known on 2013-07-08; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-07-08.
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Snowden turns himself in to US authorities before 2016 ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by phreeza on 2013-07-02; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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Snowden arrested by US authorities before 2014 ( 24% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2013-06-23; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-12-31.
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PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today – 5/31/2023 – with this individual prediction still accessible. ( 71% confidence; 29 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by FestiveBleak on 2013-05-31; known on 2023-05-31; judged right by holycow81 7 days ago.
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Ubuntu will create its very own Kernel within the next five years, ( 13% confidence; 18 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by peterc on 2013-05-28; known on 2018-06-01; judged wrong by moyamo on 2018-06-13.