Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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I will be stranded in Sudbury, when the snow causes a greater than three hour delay in my travels East. ( 33% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-13; known on 2015-12-25; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-16.
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Temple construction begins in Ayodhya on the site of Babri masjid at least by 2015. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by roshni on 2014-05-20; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-15.
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The firm will decide to eliminate my position. Voting occurs on 12/12/15. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Lissy on 2015-12-04; known on 2015-12-15; judged right by Lissy on 2015-12-14.
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No one will use the Prediction Book link to make a concrete, quantitative prediction about Syria ( 60% confidence; 5 comments )
Created by RoryS on 2015-12-02; known on 2016-03-12; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-12-14.
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Topalov will win the London Chess Classic ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-13; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-12-14.
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Nakamura will win the London Chess Classic ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-13; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-12-14.
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Aronian will win the London Chess Classic ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-13; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-12-14.
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Carlsen will win the London Chess Classic ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-13; judged right by Josh Holland on 2015-12-14.
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Giri will win the London Chess Classic ( 24% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-13; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-12-14.
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Anand will win the London Chess Classic ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-13; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-12-14.
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Vachier-Lagrave will win the London Chess Classic ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-13; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-12-14.
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Caruana will win the London Chess Classic ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-13; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-12-14.
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Grischuk will win the London Chess Classic ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-13; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-12-14.
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Adams will win the London Chess Classic ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-15; known on 2015-12-13; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-12-14.
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Either the Koru flag or the Red Peak flag will be chosen in the first New Zealand flag referendum. ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-09-30; known on 2015-12-12; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-12-12.
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Part or all of the removal of Lewin's videos will be reversed within 1 year. ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-10; known on 2015-12-10; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-12-11.
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Jaime will successfully deliver my phone by the end of this prediction. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Lissy on 2015-12-05; known on 2015-12-09; judged right by Lissy on 2015-12-08.
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I will be single as of October 2015 ( 73% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ejlflop on 2015-06-11; known on 2015-10-01; judged right by splorridge on 2015-12-08.
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By the end of 2015, either a presidential candidate, a member of congress, or Obama, will talk about the rise of AI as it relates to job-loss and/or existential crisis. ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by FractalHeretic on 2015-04-18; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by jesselevine on 2016-01-27.
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All 14 people who currently say on FB that they are going to my going-away dinner will actually go. ( 13% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-12-02; known on 2015-12-07; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-12-06.
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The VIX index will go above 23 by December 4th. ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-11-14; known on 2015-12-05; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-12-05.
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The VIX index will go above 22 by December 4th. ( 52% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-11-14; known on 2015-12-05; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-12-05.
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Zhongguo's wind power capacity will hit 120 gigawatts ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-17; known on 2015-12-25; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-05.
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ATK will successfully launch by December 4th. ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-01; known on 2015-12-05; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-05.
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I can sell my car within 2 weeks for $3k ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-11; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Idrinkitup on 2016-01-03.
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Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-23; known on 2015-11-25; judged right by Idrinkitup on 2015-12-04.
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I get the monetary prize from Peter McIntyre for changing his beliefs the most during the EA Australia retreat. ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-23; known on 2015-12-05; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-12-04.
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No one will use the Prediction Book link to make a concrete, quantitative prediction about Syria ( 60% confidence; 5 comments )
Created by RoryS on 2015-12-02; known on 2016-03-12; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-12-14.
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I will be accepted for an internship at DeepMind. ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-12-03.
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In the month of November, I will make at least four predictions on this site. ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-12-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-12-02.
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The Less Wrong user calcsam will publicly deconvert from Mormonism before 2015. ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-12-01.
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“Friends of the Earth (US) will no longer be fighting against nuclear power by December 2015.” —Stewart Brand ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-17; known on 2015-12-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-01.
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J. will have Eve and me over for dinner before December. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-30; known on 2015-12-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-01.
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Alexander Coward's firing from UC Berkeley Mathematics department will be overruled. ( 30% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-15; known on 2015-12-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-01.
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Volkswagen shares will be traded above 140€ in November ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2015-12-01.
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The IMF will vote in favor of adding the Yuan to the Special Drawing Rights basket on Nov 30th, 2015 ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-11-27; known on 2015-11-30; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-30.
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I will finish grading both my 101 exams and my 463 exams before Monday. ( 69% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-28; known on 2015-11-30; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-30.
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Reduce food costs by $100 next month. ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2015-11-30; judged wrong by memoriesofbutter on 2015-11-30.
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I think this song in ex machina is by the band AIR. ( 65% confidence )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-30; known on 2015-11-30; judged wrong by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-30.
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The music in ex machina when Caleb wakes up is by Mozart. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-30; known on 2015-11-30; judged wrong by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-30.
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The music in ex machina when Caleb wakes up is by Mozart. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-30; known on 2015-11-30; judged wrong by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-30.
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Nathan and I will do the thing this week ( 60% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-11-22; known on 2015-11-29; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-11-30.
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“Five years from now on the web for free you’ll be able to find the best lectures in the world. It will be better than any single university.” —Bill Gates ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-07; known on 2015-08-06; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-30.
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I will mark this prediction as correct. ( 100% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-11-29; known on 2015-11-30; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-11-29.
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A and M will be regularly using PredictionBook one year from now. ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by adri on 2014-11-27; known on 2015-11-27; judged wrong by adri on 2015-11-29.
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“Potential GDP growth might also take a hit, falling from around 2.8% during 1997-2008 to around 2.25% in the coming years.” —Nouriel Roubini ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2015-06-15; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-27.
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I will complete the problems from chapter 4 of Awodey to my satisfaction by midnight Sunday evening. ( 70% confidence )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-26; known on 2015-11-30; judged right by danielfilan on 2015-11-27.
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The difference in pomodoros done on eating vs non-fasting days will turn out to be significant at p<0.05 (two-tailed). ( 20% confidence )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-26; known on 2015-11-26; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-11-26.
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Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-23; known on 2015-11-25; judged right by Idrinkitup on 2015-12-04.
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I predict that the water at Revelator is filtered ( 60% confidence )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-23; known on 2015-11-24; judged right by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-23.