Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
-
The 2013 Less Wrong Survey will show more than 60% of the participants to be men. ( 94% confidence; 31 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Mathias Zaman on 2013-12-01; known on 2014-01-31; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-01-19.
-
I will read this book, Nonviolent communication ( 100% confidence )
Created by Duyut on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-01-19; judged right by Duyut on 2014-01-18.
-
I will read this book, Nonviolent communication ( 100% confidence )
Created by Duyut on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-01-19; judged right by Duyut on 2014-01-18.
-
I will read this book, Nonviolent communication ( 100% confidence )
Created by Duyut on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-01-19; judged right by Duyut on 2014-01-18.
-
I will read this book, Nonviolent communication ( 100% confidence )
Created by Duyut on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-01-19; judged right by Duyut on 2014-01-18.
-
Water reserves in Victoria, Australia will be back up to 100% by 2013 ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by raavin on 2010-11-18; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by EvanB on 2014-01-18.
-
New Year's Resolutions Rebooted: I will keep all 3 of my rebooted resolutions for one whole week, from January 9 through January 15. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-09; known on 2014-01-16; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-16.
-
If Eliezer Yudkowsky decides to follow Kevin's diet for at least three months in the next two years, his end weight after three months will be at least ten pounds (~4.5 kg) lighter than his starting weight. ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2011-12-26; known on 2014-01-16; judged right by wedrifid on 2014-01-16.
-
By January 1, 2014 I will have published at least one paper that involves Artin representations where I am the sole author. ( 48% confidence; 7 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-02-24; known on 2014-01-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2014-01-16.
-
I will be enrolled as a student @ ASU again before 2014. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-16.
-
I will complete Remembering the Kanji 1 before 2014. ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-10-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-16.
-
I will post a formal version of my primary argument for simulation-theism on Less Wrong before 2014. ( 30% confidence; 38 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-10-14; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-16.
-
I will complete all 994 lessons of My Spanish Coach for Nintendo DS before 2014. ( 10% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-12-19; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-16.
-
I will complete Uncharted: Drake's Fortune, Among Thieves, and Drake's Deception for PS3 in Spanish before 2014. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-12-19; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-16.
-
During a single 24 hour period, I will write 2,200 kanji from memory with an error rate of 10% or less before 2014. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-16.
-
I will complete all Duolingo lessons for Spanish before 2014. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-08-13; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-16.
-
Shenmue HD will be released before 2014. ( 33% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-08-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-16.
-
I will get an A or better in CSE 205: Object-Oriented Programming and Data Structures. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-09-05; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-16.
-
I will get an A or better in MAT 265: Calculus for Engineers I. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-09-05; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-16.
-
b4a6a4800b48078db172085e8120f0f6 acf7653e0314bb48ef389b8f115e0806db18b05354c5ead3c5af090681b9dafb4fce2fbbbdce8b8f0034df038ef88be999980847eac05aa1adfc730c32361d33 ( 23% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-01-12; known on 2014-01-15; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-01-15.
-
When I get to class, there will be exactly 5 people there. ( 15% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-15; known on 2014-01-16; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-15.
-
When I get to class, there will be at least 10 people there. ( 33% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-15; known on 2014-01-16; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-15.
-
When I get to class, there will be at least 5 people there already. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-15; known on 2014-01-16; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-15.
-
Average global temperature for 2013 to be higher than for 2012. ( 56% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-03-13; known on 2014-01-15; judged right by simplicio on 2014-01-15.
-
Pandora Market will shut down / disable withdrawals within the next week. ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2014-01-08; known on 2014-01-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-15.
-
Austin will get a 15" Macbook ( 85% confidence )
Created by flyingfox on 2014-01-14; known on 2014-01-21; judged right by flyingfox on 2014-01-15.
-
GoodSearch (http://goodsearch.com/) will continue to operate two years from today. ( 81% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Grognor on 2012-01-14; known on 2014-01-14; judged right by Grognor on 2014-01-15.
-
By 2014, US will have passed to law to give a tax break to corporations to bring their money back home ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-01-14.
-
HP MoR: chapter 100 will, after 1 month, have 215-792 reviews posted on FF.net ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-11-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-14.
-
HP MoR: chapter 100 will, after 7 days, have 66-383 reviews posted on FF.net ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-11-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-14.
-
Weed will not be legalized in California for the next 5 years ( 65% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by aurasprw on 2009-10-17; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by mfb on 2014-01-13.
-
GSoC 2013: “Haskell Qt Binding Generator” ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-07-20; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-13.
-
GSoC 2013: “Extending GHC to support building modules in parallel” ( 33% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-07-20; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2014-01-13.
-
GSoC 2013: “Parallelise `cabal build`” ( 33% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-07-20; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-13.
-
GSoC 2013: “Improve the feedback of the cabal-install dependency solver” ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-07-20; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-13.
-
GSoC 2013: “Communicating with mobile devices” ( 25% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-07-20; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-13.
-
Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high (>$1242.00) in five days or less after exceeding $1068. (Mtgox prices) Both events will occur sometime in 2014. ( 44% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2014-01-06; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by ArisKatsaris on 2014-01-11.
-
GSoC 2013: “Better record command for darcs” ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-07-20; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2014-01-10.
-
I will not place a bet on just-dice.com from now until 2015. ( 99% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-14; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-09.
-
Dennis Rodman's basketball team will not win over the North Korean team ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2014-01-08; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2014-01-08.
-
GSoC 2013: “Port Charts to use Diagrams” ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-07-20; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2014-01-08.
-
GSoC 2013: “interactive-diagrams and a paste site with the ability for dynamic rendering of diagrams” ( 35% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-07-20; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2014-01-08.
-
GSoC 2013: “Overloaded record fields for GHC” ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-07-20; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-08.
-
GSoC 2013: “Enhancing Darcsden” ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-07-20; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2014-01-08.
-
Bayesian Induction will be proven to be merely a special case of analogical reasoning by 2014 ( 17% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by mjgeddes on 2009-10-14; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-08.
-
Green Bay will beat the San Francisco 49ers tomorrow. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-04; known on 2014-01-06; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2014-01-08.
-
In the article “8 Subconscious Mistakes Our Brains Make Every Day” that I'm about to read, I already know of at least 4 of the mistakes. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-06; known on 2014-01-07; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-06.
-
“the number of IMAX theaters in the US triples” —dfranke ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-23; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-06.
-
BitCoin is valued at $1,000 within the month ( 50% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-02; known on 2014-02-01; judged right by Tuxedage on 2014-01-06.
-
I will not masturbate in the next 24 hours ( 0% confidence )
Created by Tuxedage on 2014-01-06; known on 2014-01-06; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2014-01-06.