Upcoming Predictions
-
[Climate change reaches] +2c for at least a continuous year before 2050 ( 25% confidence )
Created by technillogue on 2020-10-02; known on 2051-01-01.
-
Social Security in US to still exist by 2050 ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-29; known on 2051-01-01; judged unknown by David on 2015-08-01.
-
Google will be the most used search engine for the web in 2050. ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Chri on 2015-01-26; known on 2051-01-01.
-
> 100 fatalities per 1e12 revenue passenger kilometres on commercial airliners over 2040-2050 ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Leo on 2021-01-02; known on 2051-01-01.
-
Nigeria to have a larger population than the U.S. (or at least once) by 2050 (http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2013/jun/13/nigeria-larger-population-us-2050) ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2051-01-01.
-
Will China officially launch a coordinated campaign to discourage meat-eating (either through coercion or incentives) by 2050? ( 60% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-12-01; known on 2051-01-01.
-
China will successfully incorporate Taiwan by 2050 ( 32% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-10-22; known on 2051-01-01.
-
For sufficiently large n, BusyBeaver of n+1, is at least the square of Busy Beaver of n. Proven by Jan, 1, 2051. ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-07-23; known on 2051-01-01.
-
A fusion reactor will reach ignition before January 1st 2051, conditional on no existential catastrophes or wins. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2051-01-01.
-
Facebook will have less than 300 000 000 active members in 2050. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Chri on 2015-01-26; known on 2051-01-01.
-
Phone calls entail three-dimensional holographic images of both people. —Ray Kurzweil ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2051-01-01.
-
Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050 ( 29% confidence; 14 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-19; known on 2051-01-01.
-
US energy consumption per capita will be below 250 Million Btu at any time from 2016 through 2050 ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-03; known on 2051-01-01.
-
US energy consumption per capita will be above 400 Million Btu at any time from 2016 through 2050 ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-05; known on 2051-01-01.
-
At least 50% of living Americans will need to barter for, hunt, or farm their own food for survival sometime between 2016 and 2050, including those years ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-10-12; known on 2051-01-01.
-
Antibiotics prescribed less than 415 times per 1000 Americans in 2050 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-10-01; known on 2051-01-01.
-
Bicycling mortality rate in US will be above 0.06 in 2050 ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-24; known on 2051-01-01.
-
Between 2040 and 2050 there will be a two year period where at least 100 million people will die due to “climate change caused food scarcity and related uprising suppression due to civil unrest”. ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-05; known on 2051-01-01.
-
More than 25% of durable consumer goods will be 3D printed during 2050 ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-12; known on 2051-01-02.
-
By 2050 the US per capita GDP will have declined to 90% or less of its 2004 value. ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Konkvistador on 2011-07-21; known on 2051-02-01.
-
Population of Perth will be double current number within 40 years ( 71% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by nam2001 on 2011-05-31; known on 2051-05-31.
-
Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory. ( 4% confidence; 23 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-14; known on 2051-09-15; judged unknown by Arets Paeglis on 2011-10-10.
-
At least one commercial fusion reactor adding power to the grid by 2051. ( 74% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-12-26; known on 2052-01-01.
-
Elon Musk will attempt to go to the Moon before the end of his life ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-06-01; known on 2052-01-01.
-
Another episode of Firefly featuring most of the original cast (whether real or emulated or CGI) will be made before 2052 ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-10; known on 2052-01-01.
-
“Moore's Law, which has defined a doubling of price/performance/value produced by semi-conductors every 12 to 18 months since 1966, will continue to deliver its exponential benefits for at least another five decades, without stopping or slowing.” ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2052-01-01; judged unknown by Traubert on 2010-08-11.
-
R(5,5) known by January 1, 2052 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-24; known on 2052-01-01.
-
In the next 40 years, at least 1 Nobel Prize Literature will go to someone with a LessWrong account. ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-08; known on 2052-09-08.
-
I will win a Nobel Prize in literature in 40 years. ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-08; known on 2052-09-08.
-
The first 1-year period in which at least 10 people will have lived permanently on mars will be between 2042 and 2052 ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2053-01-01.
-
A country with >1,000,000 population will write the official version of their laws in a conlang (Esperanto/Lojban etc.) ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ChristianKl on 2013-10-29; known on 2053-10-30.
-
'The vast majority of countries are democratic' by 2055 ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-07; known on 2055-01-01.
-
By 2055 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2055-01-01.
-
Chelsea Manning will be be pardoned by the US government and undergo transgender surgery and become a popular advocate of free information in the US in the 2040s and 2050s ( 14% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by deanmullen2014 on 2013-12-31; known on 2055-01-01.
-
By 2055 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2055-01-01.
-
No human will land on another planet before 2050 and survive on that planet for at least 5 years. ( 54% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Hierophant on 2015-10-14; known on 2055-01-01.
-
By January 1, 2055, driving a non-self-driving car on at least one US federal highway will be illegal. ( 33% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-13; known on 2055-01-02.
-
Quantum version of ETH disproven by January 1, 2056 ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-15; known on 2056-01-01.
-
The first 1-year period in which at least 10 people will have lived permanently on the moon will be between 2045 and 2055. ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2056-01-01.
-
Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-11; known on 2056-01-01.
-
'Global average temperatures have risen by 3°C' ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-07; known on 2056-01-01.
-
By January 1, 2056, under the assumptions that PH not collapse to finite level, PH != PSPACE, and PSPACE != EXP, UGC, ETH , GI is not in BQP, factoring is not in P, and NC != P, proven that ZPP in Beta_P^{Ring iso, MSCP}. ( 69% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-07; known on 2056-01-01.
-
Assuming that this environment is not a simulation, humanity will not observe strong evidence for the existence of a technological alien (i.e. independently evolved) civilization before the minimum of {end of 2055, implementation of superintelligence}. ( 86% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sh on 2015-07-20; known on 2056-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
-
William Lane Craig will lose his faith before he dies ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2016-07-08; known on 2056-08-07.
-
The Shia Muslim ritual of tatbir will no longer be widely practiced in 40 years. ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by VK7K7vg on 2016-12-18; known on 2056-12-18.
-
“Hydrocarbon fuels will be the “fuel of choice” for personal transportation for the next 50 years” ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2056-12-31.
-
arctic free of ice at any point before dec 31 2056 ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-03; known on 2056-12-31.
-
A nuclear fusion reactor will hit an economic breakeven before January 1st 2057, conditional on no existential catastrophes or wins. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2057-01-01.
-
'2057 On October 4, the centenary of Sputnik 1, the dawn of the space age is celebrated by humans on Earth, the Moon, Mars, Europa, Ganymede and Titan, and in orbit around Venus, Neptune and Pluto.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2058-01-01.
-
Lab grown meat will become the primary source of global meat production by 2060 ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by jewstinbeac on 2022-09-02; known on 2060-01-01.