Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 20% | 49% | 74% | 71% | 87% | 90% | |
Sample Size | 5 | 35 | 42 | 21 | 45 | 10 | 158 |
Displaying all predictions made by muflax. Filter by:
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LW: Rationality Boot Camp will be declared a success. ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Luke will finish his meta-ethics sequence on LW in 2012. ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-01-01.
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Dexter season 6: Brother Sam deconverts. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2011-12-18; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-11-07.
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Dexter season 6: Brother Sam dies. ( 60% confidence )
Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2011-12-18; judged right by muflax on 2011-11-07.
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Dexter season 6: Travis Marshall is not the final villain. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2011-12-18; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-19.
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Dexter season 6: lab girl is (specifically) a Dexter fangirl. ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2011-12-18; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-19.
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Dexter season 6: lab girl is a serial killer. ( 15% confidence )
Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2011-12-18; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-19.
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Dexter season 6: lab girl is more than a thief. ( 65% confidence )
Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2011-12-18; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-19.
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Dexter season 6: Prof. Gellar is a hallucination, similar to Dexter's dad. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2011-12-18; judged right by fork on 2011-11-28.
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Non-Japanese customers will be allowed to buy e-books in the Japanese Kindle store. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-10-25.
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Amazon opens Japanese Kindle store in 2012. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2012-10-25.
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Amazon opens Japanese Kindle store in 2011. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-31.
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Occupy Wall Street (NYC) will continue at least 30 more days. ( 79% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by torekp on 2011-10-23; known on 2011-11-23; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-23.
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I will abstain from sexual activity (porn, masturbation, orgasm) until January 31st, 2012. ( 45% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Arkanj3l on 2011-10-20; known on 2012-01-31; judged wrong by Arkanj3l on 2012-05-26.
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By 2025 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ( 7% confidence; 17 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2025-01-01; judged unknown by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
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The world will exist on 2012-12-22 (day after the widely hyped end) ( 99% confidence; 43 wagers; 21 comments )
Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-22; judged right by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky's book on rationality will be published within 3 years. ( 46% confidence; 25 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2014-10-04; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-10-04.
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Within two years, consensus will be that Edward Nelson's current attempt at demonstrating a contradiction in PA fails. ( 82% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-27; known on 2013-09-27; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-01.
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'Queen Elizabeth II becomes the longest reigning monarch in British history' ( 89% confidence; 27 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2015-09-10; judged right by kuudes on 2015-09-09.
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'Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 1 year' ( 70% confidence; 38 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-23; known on 2012-09-23; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-08.
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A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021 ( 29% confidence; 21 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-11; known on 2021-09-10; judged wrong by muflax on 2021-09-10.
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No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests) ( 82% confidence; 32 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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By 2018, an editorial in either the New York Times or the Wall Street Journal will call for an investigation into whether the 9/11 Truth movement's accusations are correct. ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-02; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2018-01-01.
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The current criteria for awarding the “Poseidon award” offered by the seastead insitute, will be met by someone by 2015. ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Konkvistador on 2011-08-30; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by a0c4a123f7 on 2016-01-01.
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gwern will make a prediction on PredictionBook any time during 2012 (UTC) ( 96% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-03.
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“Robert Mugabe to no longer be President of Zimbabwe before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
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'NASA to announce discovery of extraterrestrial life before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012' —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.
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The US Democratic Party fragments before the 2016 primary season. ( 6% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2011-08-03; known on 2016-01-16; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-16.
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Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen. ( 47% confidence; 23 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-03; known on 2041-01-01.
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XiXiDu will not comment or post to LW for 5 years. ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-11; known on 2016-07-11; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-16.
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Obama will not run for a second term. (http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=312393 ) ( 3% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-21; known on 2012-02-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-20.
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90% chance of AI by 2050 —Shane Legg ( 47% confidence; 21 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2050-01-01.
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10% chance of AI by 2018 —Shane Legg ( 8% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2018-01-01.
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Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ( 47% confidence; 22 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-09; known on 2050-01-01.
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GRRM dies before finishing A Song of Ice and Fire ( 49% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2040-01-01.
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Half-Life 3 announced by Valve in 2011. —Game Informer ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-31.
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The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade ( 67% confidence; 22 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by kallman on 2010-11-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2021-09-10.
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Computers have made paper books and documents almost completely obsolete by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 16% confidence; 17 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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“Christopher Hitchens will publicly confess his sins to God, however he finds Him between now and the time of his passing, and accept Christ as his Lord, Savior and pathway to God. He will do this in a meaningful rather than a flippant, facetious or hyp ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-19; known on 2020-01-03; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-16.
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Life will be discovered on Titan by 2030. ( 5% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by gwern on 2010-09-06.
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A state will try & succeed in seceding from the US. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2020-01-01.
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There will be strong indications of extrasolar life by 2016. ( 19% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2016-01-01.