Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 100% | 0% | 50% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
Displaying all predictions made by onthestairs. Filter by:
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simon will work for metaswitch in a year ( 60% confidence )
Created by onthestairs on 2014-03-24; known on 2014-12-16.
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There will be no direct “hot”/shooting military conflict between any of the US, France, Germany, the UK, and Russia in 2014 ( 94% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Benquo on 2014-03-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-01-02.
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I will score a goal against Paddock ( 60% confidence; 8 comments )
Created by onthestairs on 2012-11-30; known on 2012-12-03.
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fulham will beat newcastle ( 60% confidence )
Created by onthestairs on 2012-12-10; known on 2012-12-10; judged right by onthestairs on 2012-12-14.
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The Upperthong vs Paddock game will go ahead ( 50% confidence; 7 comments )
Created by onthestairs on 2012-11-30; known on 2012-12-02; judged wrong by onthestairs on 2012-12-14.
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This is a test prediction ( 50% confidence )
Created by onthestairs on 2012-11-29; known on 2012-12-05.
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test ( 20% confidence )
Created by onthestairs on 2012-11-29; known on 2012-12-19.
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Barack Obama will win reelection. ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by TheHumanite on 2011-06-06; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.
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The user rating of Community on IMDB will be less than 8.5 by the end of Season 4. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by onthestairs on 2012-10-02; known on 2013-01-13; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-01-24.
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Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 31% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Silk Road will be closed by July 1st, 2013 —BetsofBitcoin ( 19% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-25; known on 2013-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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By 2016, at least one reviewer of Haruhi will accept the theory that Kyon is god. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-07.