Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Andrea Rossi's 1 MW plant based on his energy catalyzer invention will not succeed within a year. ( 96% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Kaj_Sotala on 2011-10-08; known on 2012-10-08; judged right by gwern on 2012-10-08.
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Chavez will not be re-elected president of Venezuela on October 07, 2012. ( 33% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by alexguerrero on 2011-11-17; known on 2012-10-07; judged wrong by Pablo on 2012-10-08.
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Before January 1, 2020, a quantum computer will be used to successfully factor an integer greater than 100 using Shore’s algorithm or some similar algorithm. ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-31; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-10-07.
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I will implement obstacles in my game today. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-10-05; known on 2012-10-05; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-10-05.
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Someone on Fox News or one of the headlines on their website will claim that Mitt Romney won the 2012-10-03 presidential debate. ( 83% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by aaronsw on 2012-10-03; known on 2012-10-04; judged right by aaronsw on 2012-10-04.
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US domestic movie box office for summer in 2012 will be higher than 2011 ( 65% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-26; known on 2012-10-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-10-03.
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User Epiphany will cease commenting or posting on LW within a month ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-03; known on 2012-10-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-03.
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DNB/nicotine day 23: active? ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-03; known on 2012-10-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-03.
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DNB/nicotine day 23: active? ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-02; known on 2012-10-02; judged right by gwern on 2012-10-02.
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All previously published SI research papers will be typeset in the new template before the end of the month. ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2012-10-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2012-10-01.
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I'll have read through chapter 20 in HPMoR by the end of this month. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2012-10-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2012-10-01.
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Eliezer will start posting his Open FAI problems sequence to LessWrong.com in September 2012. ( 47% confidence; 16 wagers )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2012-10-01; judged wrong by lukeprog on 2012-10-01.
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“USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before midnight ET 30 Sep 2012” —Intrade ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-10-01; judged wrong by Pablo on 2012-10-01.
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By 2012-10-01, I will have written a book of fiction that has at least 50,000 words and has been read by at least 50 people. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Kaj_Sotala on 2011-10-08; known on 2012-10-01; judged wrong by Kaj_Sotala on 2012-10-01.
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The self-referentiality of this prediction will have significant consequences by the end of September 2012 ( 0% confidence )
Created by zeropercent on 2012-09-08; known on 2012-10-01; judged wrong by zeropercent on 2012-10-01.
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[Breaking Bad Season 5] Hank will see Walt in some context associated with the pest control company, causing him to realize that he's hiding something… again. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by quicklystarfish on 2012-07-30; known on 2014-01-30; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-10-01.
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DNB/nicotine day 22: active? ( 55% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-01; known on 2012-10-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-10-01.
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I will play Guild Wars 2 for more than 10 hours in the next week ( 50% confidence )
Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-09-24; known on 2012-10-01; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2012-09-30.
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I will play WoW for less than 5 hours this week ( 90% confidence )
Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-09-24; known on 2012-10-01; judged right by wallowinmaya on 2012-09-30.
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DNB/nicotine day 21: active? ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-30; known on 2012-09-30; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-30.
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I will finish my PhD degree within the next three years. ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2009-12-30; known on 2012-12-30; judged wrong by Pablo on 2012-09-27.
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The NFL and the refs won't come to a labor agreement before Oct 1 ( 65% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-31; known on 2012-10-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-09-27.
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I will add a glossary to my Less Wrong article within 24 hours. ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-26; known on 2012-09-27; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-27.
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DNB/nicotine day 20: active? ( 65% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-27; known on 2012-09-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-27.
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If I trade in my 2006 Scion tC this month, then I will get equal to or greater than $5,600 for it. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-11; known on 2012-10-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-26.
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DNB/nicotine day 19: active? ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-26; known on 2012-09-26; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-26.
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In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ( 9% confidence; 16 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-18; known on 2022-09-19; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-09-25.
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In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ( 9% confidence; 16 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-18; known on 2022-09-19; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-09-25.
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DNB/nicotine day 18: active? ( 45% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-24; known on 2012-09-24; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-24.
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I will complete Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next month. ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03; known on 2012-08-03; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-24.
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An earthquake >8 on Richter scale occurs in California in June 2012 ( 0% confidence )
Created by chimpsky on 2012-06-07; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-24.
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Luke Muehlhauser will cease regularly using modafinil more than 3 times a week or will report tolerance ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-28; known on 2012-10-28; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-24.
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DNB/nicotine day 17: active? ( 65% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-24; known on 2012-09-24; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-24.
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I will finish reading GEB before I go to college. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ahartell on 2012-01-04; known on 2012-09-23; judged wrong by ahartell on 2012-09-23.
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Romney will eventually release more tax returns, before 2012 election ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-16; known on 2012-11-30; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-09-22.
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One week after its release, 'The Master' will hold a score of 85% or above on RottenTomatoes. ( 85% confidence )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2012-09-21; judged right by lukeprog on 2012-09-21.
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My LSD order will arrive. ( 90% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-05; known on 2012-12-06; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-21.
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I will cease to identify as an atheist after my LSD trip. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-06; known on 2013-03-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-21.
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LSD: I will experience a partial or fully mystical experience. ( 35% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2012-09-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-21.
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LSD: My trip will be generally positive (and not a 'bad trip'). ( 75% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2012-09-28; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-21.
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I will like Moonrise Kingdom (2012) ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-21; known on 2012-09-23; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-21.
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Initial release of iPhone 5 or iPad 3 (or their market names) will allow installing your own applications, without jailbreaking or signing up for a developer program ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-02-05; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-21.
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Total Recall (2012) will do better than Bourne Legacy (2012) (measured by box office receipts of the first 4 wks) ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2012-09-21; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-09-21.
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“The first person to do a special [specific] drawing for this thing will get fired” LBJ LBJ will be the first person to do a specific drawing for this purpose. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-09-21; known on 2012-09-21; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2012-09-21.
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I will get my motorcycle license in a week or less. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-15; known on 2012-09-22; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-20.
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NYTimes: Paul Krugman will make a (charitably) testable prediction in an article next week 10th-16th ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by William-Quixote on 2012-09-08; known on 2012-09-16; judged right by William-Quixote on 2012-09-20.
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NYTimes: Ross Douthat will make a (charitably) testable prediction in an article next week 10th-16th ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by William-Quixote on 2012-09-08; known on 2012-09-16; judged wrong by William-Quixote on 2012-09-20.
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I will have read Ryan's Atlas Shrugged by 2 weeks time. ( 90% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by williamycai on 2012-09-06; known on 2012-09-20; judged wrong by williamycai on 2012-09-20.
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NYTimes: Thomas Friedman will make a (charitably) a testable prediction in an article next week 10th-16th ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by William-Quixote on 2012-09-08; known on 2012-09-16; judged wrong by William-Quixote on 2012-09-20.
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NYTimes: David Brooks will make a (charitably) testable prediction in an article next week 10th-16th ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by William-Quixote on 2012-09-08; known on 2012-09-16; judged right by William-Quixote on 2012-09-20.