Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 43% | 63% | 71% | 83% | 93% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 373 | 575 | 496 | 412 | 690 | 110 | 2656 |
Displaying all predictions made by gwern. Filter by:
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“Michele Bachmann to win the 2012 South Carolina Primary” —Intrade ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-01-28; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-22.
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“Michele Bachmann to win the 2012 New Hampshire Primary” —Intrade ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-25.
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“Michele Bachmann to be elected President in 2012” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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“Michele Bachmann to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012” —Intrade ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-08-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-30.
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“Michele Bachmann to dropout of the 2012 Presidential race before midnight ET 05 Feb 2012” —Intrade ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-02-05; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-28.
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“Michele Bachmann to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll” —Intrade ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2011-08-13; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-13.
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“Rupert Murdoch to depart as CEO of News Corp before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 6% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“David Cameron to no longer be Prime Minister before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“Twitter to announce an IPO before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2013-12-31.
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“Twitter to announce an IPO before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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“Twitter to announce an IPO before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“Ron Paul to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012” —Intrade ( 13% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-08-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-30.
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“Gary Johnson to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012” —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-08-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-30.
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“Hillary Clinton to be elected President in 2012” —Intrade ( 4% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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“Rick Perry to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012” —Intrade ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-08-30; judged wrong by falenas108 on 2012-04-19.
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'John Bolton to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012' ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-08-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-30.
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Ron Paul will be dead by 2017. ( 22% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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'NASA to announce discovery of extraterrestrial life before midnight ET 31 Dec 2014' —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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'NASA to announce discovery of extraterrestrial life before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012' —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.
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'NASA to announce discovery of extraterrestrial life before midnight ET 31 Dec 2013' —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-31.
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Brazil only 7th largest world economy or smaller in 2050 —HSBC ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.
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Egypt, Malaysia and Indonesia in top 20 largest world economies —HSBC ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.
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Turkish GDP > Russian in 2050 —HSBC ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.
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American per-capita GDP 3x greater than Chinese per-capita GDP in 2050 —HSBC ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.
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Chinese & Indian per capita in 2050 will be 8x greater (in constant 2000 dollars) than 2011 —HSBC ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.
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India GDP less than either China or USA in 2050 —HSBC ( 76% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01; judged unknown by Baeboo on 2020-12-01.
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India >=$8.2 trillion GDP (constant 2000 dollars) in 2050 —HSBC ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.
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US >=$22.3 trillion GDP (constant 2000 dollars) in 2050 —HSBC ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.
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China >=$24.6 trillion GDP (constant 2000 dollars) in 2050 —HSBC ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.
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" I’m reasonably certain that [>1b pub library circulation] will also be true 35 years from now" ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-12; known on 2046-09-01.
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“Ten years from now, U.S. public libraries will circulate more than a billion print books each year” —Walt Crawford ( 81% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-12; known on 2021-09-01; judged right by stepan on 2021-09-12.
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The next Humble Bundle accepts Bitcoin for payment. ( 34% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-08-12; known on 2012-02-12; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-12-13.
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In the next five years, two classes in the Complexity Zoo as of 10 August 2011, will either be shown to be equal or shown to be unequal. ( 64% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-10; known on 2016-08-10; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2020-11-01.
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Next iPad refresh (“iPad 3” or similar) will have a model with a >= 240 dpi primary display ( 85% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-10; known on 2012-04-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-03-07.
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The ITER fusion reactor will have first plasma by the end of 2022. ( 30% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-09; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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The Opportunity rover will continue doing science (either mobile or as a fixed station) for at least another six months. ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-09; known on 2012-02-09; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-09.
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The Curiosity rover will successfully land on Mars. ( 70% confidence; 14 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-09; known on 2012-09-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-06.
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The Dow Jones will be at least 11,000 on January 1st, 2012 ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-09; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
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I will make more changes to predictionbook that will be included in the official repo, where inclusion happens before 2013-01-01 UTC ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-11-10.
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Roger Ver will not create a Longbets about his Bitcoin>gold/silver prediction within a month. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-08; known on 2011-09-08; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-21.
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Apple will ship a Macbook Air (or closest product successor) with a non-glossy display to a customer before 2013-01-01 UTC ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-08; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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I will complete the Good Judgment Project and be paid the full honorarium. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-05; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2015-01-01.
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Dow Jones below 10,000 at end of year. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-05; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
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I will make at least one prediction on PredictionBook in 2012 ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-05; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.
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Terence Tao will solve the Clay Institute problem on the Navier-Stokes equation (or prove it cannot be done) within the next five years. ( 8% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2011-08-05; known on 2016-08-05; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-08-05.
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Morendil will be accepted by the Good Jugdgement Team. ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-04; known on 2011-11-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-05.
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I will be accepted by the Good Judgement Team. ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-04; known on 2011-11-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-05.
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“Bitcoins will outperform Gold, Silver by 100X over the next two years” —Roger Ver ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-04; known on 2013-08-04; judged wrong by mfb on 2013-08-31.
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Ron Paul will win the electoral vote in the 2012 U.S. Presidential election ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-04; known on 2012-11-08; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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MyBitcoin will go back up before 2011-09-04 UTC and allow > 90% of users to withdraw their full balances ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-04; known on 2011-09-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-14.
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The US Democratic Party fragments before the 2016 primary season. ( 6% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2011-08-03; known on 2016-01-16; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-16.
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Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen. ( 47% confidence; 23 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-03; known on 2041-01-01.
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Appeals court in Perugia will not increase the sentences of Knox and Sollecito. ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by komponisto on 2010-09-29; known on 2011-11-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-10-03.
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Apple will buy Hulu. ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-02; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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300: Battle of Artemisia is not produced and released in the next decade. ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-08-02; known on 2021-08-02; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-09.
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The US Mint will mint one or more high-value coins ($100K+/coin) before 2011-09-15 ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-07-30; known on 2011-09-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-15.
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Google will buy Spotify ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-28; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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A 1MW cold-fusion reactor will NOT be demonstrated in October this year. ( 93% confidence; 18 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by scav on 2011-07-28; known on 2011-10-31; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-11-03.
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My last 10 link submissions to anime subreddit will average 1<x<15 karma. ( 15% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-26; known on 2011-07-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-07-30.
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Confirmed observation of a neutrino source outside our solar system other than SN 1987A by 2060 ( 83% confidence; 11 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-25; known on 2061-01-01.
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Emotion-reading wearable device commercially available (may need prescription or license) by 2031, or obtainable by publicly available plans (eg open-source project, Make magazine article, Instructable how-to, etc) ( 72% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-07-23; known on 2031-01-01.
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By 2050 the US per capita GDP will have declined to 90% or less of its 2004 value. ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Konkvistador on 2011-07-21; known on 2051-02-01.
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Between January and June 2017 (inclusive), I will enter text into my computers and the majority of this text will be entered using a physical keyboard with physical buttons that depress at least 2.5mm ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-07-21; known on 2017-07-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-07-01.
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My SR thread on Bitcoin forums will be deleted or otherwise hidden or suppressed. ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-17; known on 2011-08-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-07-18.
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Spot gold price will touch at least $2000 by December 31, 2012. ( 52% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dakyne on 2011-07-16; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by dakyne on 2013-01-01.
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The US dept ceiling will be raised by August 2 ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-15; known on 2011-08-02; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-02.
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From May 2014 to April 2015 (inclusive), Microsoft will not ship any free security patches or hotfixes for Windows XP. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-07-15; known on 2015-05-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-05-01.
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The final flight of space shuttle Atlantis (STS-135) will be completed successfully and will land with no fatalities and no major incidents. ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-14; known on 2011-07-23; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-21.
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Silver spot price will touch $50 or higher by December 31, 2012. ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dakyne on 2011-07-14; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by dakyne on 2013-01-01.
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I will be raided or searched over my Silk Road article. ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-12; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-02.
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I will not smoke any tobacco products over the next 5 years. ( 98% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-11; known on 2016-07-11; judged right by gwern on 2016-07-11.
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XiXiDu will not comment or post to LW for 5 years. ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-11; known on 2016-07-11; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-16.
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By 2061, India will be the world's largest economy —Scott Sumner ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-10; known on 2061-01-01; judged right by Vaibhav_Srivastva on 2020-12-01.
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papermachine is Chinese or of Chinese descent. ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-08; known on 2011-07-09; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-07-08.
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NGE: in Sadamoto's manga, Shinji will save Asuka from MP Evas, there will be no 3rd Impact, and everyone lives happily ever after ( 10% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-05; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-02.
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Sarah Palin is mounting a 2012 presidential campaign ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-07-04; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-13.
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NGE: Asuka will die in Stage 86 or 87 of the manga. ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-07.
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LW user 'Zed' is Zed Shaw. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-04; known on 2011-07-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-07-05.
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“You will hear nothing about Google+ a year from now.” – Eliezer Yudkowsky (http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2722976) ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ZrCa on 2011-07-03; known on 2012-07-03; judged wrong by ZrCa on 2012-07-19.
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Nadal will regain the #1 ranking at some point this year ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-03; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2012-01-10.
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Philip Roth for 2011 Literature Nobel ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-02; known on 2011-10-10; judged wrong by ka on 2011-10-06.
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Don Delillo for 2011 Literature Nobel ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-02; known on 2011-10-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-07.
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Haruki Murakami for 2011 Literature Nobel ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-02; known on 2011-10-10; judged wrong by ka on 2011-10-06.
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Cormac McCarthy for 2011 Literature Nobel ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-02; known on 2011-10-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-07.
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Xmonad 1.0 will be released in July. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-01; known on 2011-08-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-01.
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the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. —S. Jay Olshansky ( 7% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-29; known on 2100-01-01.
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Tyrion will not die in A Dance With Dragons. ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ZrCa on 2011-06-29; known on 2011-08-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-21.
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UTS will be one of the first 100 universities in the world by 2014. ( 26% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by puya on 2011-06-28; known on 2014-06-30; judged wrong by Grognor on 2014-09-09.
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Mourinho's fear over Barcelona will make him leave Real Madrid in this season. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by puya on 2011-06-28; known on 2011-08-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-30.
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The Islamic Republic Will collapse in 2 years in IRan. ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by puya on 2011-06-28; known on 2013-06-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-06-30.
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Greece will not default on or shave its bondholders. —Stefan Homburg ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2012-06-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-05.
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'A Clay problem will be solved by two independent researchers at about the same time.' in 2011 —Lipton ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
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'Graph Isomorphism will be proved to be reducible to the Graph Reconstruction Problem.' in 2011 —Lipton ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
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'The complexity class BQP, bounded-error quantum polynomial time, will be shown to lie in the polynomial hierarchy.' in 2011 —Lipton ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
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'A Computer Scientist will win a Nobel Prize.' —Lipton ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
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' No circuit lower bound of {{1000n}} or better will be proved for SAT.' in 2011 —Lipton ( 93% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02.
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Integer factoring in polynomial time, revealed by 2020 —Dick Lipton ( 9% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
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P=NP, and proven by 12 December 2012 —Dick Lipton ( 0% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2012-12-12; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-12.
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P!=NP, and proven by 2040 —Ken ( 44% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2041-01-01.
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“Environmentalism is embraced by the conservative Christian right.” ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-22; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-01-07.