Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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I will get my favourite seat on the bus ( 55% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-03-23; known on 2015-03-23; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-03-23.
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I will have a Facebook message ( 25% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-03-23; known on 2015-03-23; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-03-23.
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I go to the Mark Drama on 23/03/15 ( 80% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-03-22; known on 2015-03-23; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-03-23.
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By 2025, at least one major world city will have a restaurant featuring 3D printed food. ( 69% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-25; known on 2025-01-01; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2015-03-23.
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We'll get a parking ticket in the next month. ( 45% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-24; known on 2015-03-23; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-03-23.
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HP MoR: Hermione will make a Horcrux chronologically before or during the events of ch89 ( 17% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-07-01; known on 2013-09-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2015-03-23.
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HP MoR: The phrase “the very stars in heaven” in the prophecy refers to the Black family, as per http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/hvg/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/9ajh . ( 4% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-03; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by ygert on 2015-03-23.
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HP MoR: Snape kills Dumbledore ( 22% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Flailingjunk on 2013-07-06; known on 2015-01-02; judged wrong by ygert on 2015-03-23.
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HPMoR: The spell of cursèd fire is Amaterasu. ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-02-15; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-23.
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The Coop was open ( 55% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-03-22; known on 2015-03-22; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-03-22.
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The Coop was open ( 55% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-03-22; known on 2015-03-22; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-03-22.
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The garlic in Sainsbury's was where I thought it was ( 60% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-03-22; known on 2015-03-22; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-03-22.
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He doesn't take any of that lecture, conditional on eclipse roughly as described, as agreed by prediction setters ( 46% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-21; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-03-22.
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HPMoR: In chapter 111, Voldemort is lying about the loss of the Horcrux network, conditional on events not being inside a realm created by the mirror. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2015-02-25; known on 2015-03-14; judged right by jbeshir on 2015-03-22.
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A video is uploaded to /user/SenpaiKush which has upload date lying in March 2015 ( 56% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-04-01; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-22.
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The Crowfall kickstarter will reach its “Mounts & Caravans” $1.3 million stretch goal ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Rowan93 on 2015-03-21; known on 2015-03-26; judged right by Rowan93 on 2015-03-22.
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S will respond. ( 50% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-27; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-03-21.
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I see J at P ( 78% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-20; known on 2015-03-21; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-21.
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HP MoR: Hat & Cloak is Voldemort, but not Quirrel ( 23% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-03-16; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: All Voldemort's horcruxes except the Pioneer probe will be destroyed, and Voldemort is doomed to wander the cosmos forever, and this outcome will be either planned or permitted by Harry ( 13% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Voldemort is Quirrel's wand or is contained within it ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Lucius Malfoy believes Harry to be Voldemort as of ch83 ( 92% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Severus Snape ( 35% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Dumbledore ( 7% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Harry (future or present) ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Leroy Lockhart ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Sybil Trelawney ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Helena Ravenclaw (the Grey Lady ghost) ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Cloak & Hat has Obliviated Blaise Zabini's mother ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Peter Pettigrew is dead ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Bellatrix Black is a Horcrux ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Sirius Black is not in Azkaban ( 66% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Sirius Black is not in Azkaban and the person in Azkaban is Peter Pettigrew ( 60% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Sirius Black is in Hogwarts ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Gilderoy Lockhart will be Sir Not Appearing In This Fanfic ( 85% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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V fixed the bug. ( 25% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-03-19; known on 2015-03-20; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-03-19.
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Satoshi nakamoto will be Time’s Person of the Year 2014. http://lightspeedindia.wordpress.com/2014/01/13/bitcoin-2014-top-10-predictions/ ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-16; known on 2015-06-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-03-19.
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Over 70% of the respondents to the effective-altruist survey will be male. http://lesswrong.com/lw/k60/2014_survey_of_effective_altruists/ ( 76% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Patrick Brinich-Langlois on 2014-05-01; known on 2014-07-01; judged right by etarletons on 2015-03-18.
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Israeli Election: Zionist Union will get more votes than Likud ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Rigulel on 2015-03-07; known on 2015-03-18; judged wrong by Rigulel on 2015-03-18.
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My startup Synaptitude raises at least $100,000 when we launch on Kickstarter sometime in Q1 (early) 2015: http://synaptitude.me/ ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-11-30; known on 2015-05-01; judged wrong by lettergram on 2015-03-17.
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Created by lettergram on 2014-06-27; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by lettergram on 2015-03-17.
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'Today', I do gym and track stuff then my first BK of the day ( 35% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17.
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I do gym and track stuff 'today' ( 80% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17.
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CJ or HM or JB at P ( 35% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-03-17.
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CJ or HM or JB at P ( 35% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-03-17.
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One or t'other sees both BKB's in/around P ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-03-17.
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Meet up with G on that day ( 45% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17.
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One or t'other sees both BKB's in/around P ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-03-17.
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I'll catch that train ( 10% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17.
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DMT read first 99 chapters of HPMoR or said they had caught it up ( 28% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17.