Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 57% | 66% | 75% | 87% | 95% | 98% | |
Sample Size | 21 | 29 | 24 | 23 | 84 | 44 | 225 |
Displaying all predictions made by kuudes. Filter by:
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Greece will default on it's sovereign debt, or exit the Eurozone (possibly both) ( 65% confidence; 19 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Afforess on 2015-11-12.
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Syria’s civil war will not end before 2016. ( 93% confidence; 51 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02.
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Assad will remain President of Syria for the remainder of 2015. ( 89% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-02.
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Ebola will kill fewer people in second half of 2015 than the in first half. ( 91% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02.
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Greece will not announce it’s leaving the Euro before 2016. ( 59% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2016-01-02.
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The U.S. federal reserve will raise the federal funds target rate above 0.25% by June 2016 ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by benwr on 2015-01-11; known on 2016-06-02; judged right by kuudes on 2015-12-16.
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Hillary Clinton to withdraw from the US presidential election by March 17th, 2016, and Martin O'Malley to be the Democratic nominee. ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-23; known on 2016-03-17; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-17.
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Bernie Sanders to win the Democratic nomination. ( 18% confidence; 66 wagers; 38 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-02; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-10.
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EUR/USD above 1.10 at end of June. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Chri on 2015-04-12; known on 2015-07-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-07-01.
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The finnish government that is formed after the scheduled elections on 2015 will have exactly 2 parties that each have enough members of parliament to force the government mp number to lower than 100 and the government is formed before midsummer. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2015-03-27; known on 2015-06-19; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-05-08.
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A party not in the government is whipped to back or abstain on the first Queens Speech of next parliament ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-03-13; known on 2015-06-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-06-08.
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Israeli Election: Benjamin Netanyahu will be the next prime minister ( 64% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Rigulel on 2015-03-07; known on 2015-05-17; judged right by kuudes on 2015-05-08.
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On 1st June the PM is a member of the Labour party ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-02-17; known on 2015-06-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-06-08.
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It will be clear by March 25,2015 that the Minsk ceasefire did not hold ( 56% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-13; known on 2015-03-26; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-03-27.
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Bitcoin over $1000 at any point before end of 2015 ( 12% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by learnmethis on 2015-02-05; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
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Islamist militants will cause one or more deaths in the UK, Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark, Spain, Portugal, or Italy before or at 23:59 on the 31st March 2015 (per @MWStory). ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by doxievee on 2015-02-01; known on 2015-04-01; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-14.
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Following the 2015 UK general election, a single party will hold a majority in the House of Commons. ( 30% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by doxievee on 2015-01-31; known on 2015-05-08; judged right by kuudes on 2015-05-08.
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Following the 2015 UK general election, no party will hold a majority; furthermore, no two parties combined will hold a majority, with the exception of a 'grand coalition' between Labour and the Conservatives. ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by doxievee on 2015-01-31; known on 2015-05-08; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-05-08.
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Greece, will still have the Euro at the end of 2016 ( 66% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Chri on 2015-01-26; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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The UK will have another coalition government after the election in 2015 ( 56% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RogerE on 2015-01-15; known on 2015-05-08; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-05-08.
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My flight from Chicago to Roanoke will not be canceled tomorrow evening. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by benwr on 2015-01-12; known on 2015-01-13; judged right by benwr on 2015-01-13.
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North Korea’s government will not collapse (whether due to revolt/civil war, or war with another country) before Dec 31, 2015. ( 93% confidence; 20 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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In 2015 there will not be any terrorist attacks in the US that kill more than 40 people. ( 85% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01.
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Oil price (Brent crude) will be above $60/bbl in August ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by moridinamael on 2015-01-07; known on 2015-08-16; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-08-16.
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Ukip will get the highest amount of seats next General Election ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-04; known on 2015-06-16; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-05-08.
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Ukip will have five or less seats following the UK general election. ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-05-07; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
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Queen Elizabeth II will announce her abdication before 1st January 2016 ( 10% confidence; 18 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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The Labour Party will have the largest number of seats following the UK GE. ( 60% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-05-07; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
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The next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom will be Ed Miliband ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by doxievee on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-05-14; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-05-08.
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The Conservative Party will have the largest number of seats following the UK GE. ( 37% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-05-07; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
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No party will achieve an overall majority in the House of Commons in the May 2015 general election ( 83% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by doxievee on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-05-07; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
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Scott Aaronson will not make a “tearful apology” for either Comment 171 or for any related remarks that he has made as of 9 AM December 31. ( 78% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-31; known on 2015-01-25; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-25.
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I will make my return flight from San Francisco. ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by brightcloud on 2014-12-23; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-25.
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DAX will be above 10000 on Jan 15, 2015 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Chri on 2014-12-18; known on 2015-01-15; judged right by Chri on 2015-01-15.
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DAX will stay above 9000pts until Mar 1, 2015 ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Chri on 2014-12-18; known on 2015-03-01; judged right by Chri on 2015-03-01.
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The FTSE 100 will be over 9000 on January 16th 2016 ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-13; known on 2016-01-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16.
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The FTSE 100 will be below 7000 on January 16th ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-13; known on 2015-01-16; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-16.
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The FTSE 100 will be valued at over 6100 in January http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/indices/summary/summary-indices.html?index=UKX ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-11; known on 2015-01-16; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-16.
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Part or all of the removal of Lewin's videos will be reversed within 1 year. ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-10; known on 2015-12-10; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-12-11.
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Swiss Franc CHF will not be more valued than Euro EUR before end of first half of 2015. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2014-12-01; known on 2015-07-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-15.
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There will be no single event causing the death of over 1 billion people (hereafter defined as an “apocalypse”) before January ( 98% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-24; known on 2015-01-16; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-05.
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Ebola has killed fewer than 1000 people in the US or Canada by November 2015 ( 95% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by LogicalOxymoron on 2014-11-22; known on 2015-11-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-11-01.
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Center party will gain or tie for most seats in Finnish parliamentary election 2015. ( 85% confidence )
Created by kuudes on 2014-11-14; known on 2015-05-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-04-19.
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The next government will be a coalition ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-01; known on 2015-05-16; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-05-08.
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Britain will still be part of the EU in 2016 ( 93% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-01; known on 2016-01-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16.
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There will be a manned mission to Mars by 2017 ( 7% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-29; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2017-01-16.
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There will be less than 20 deaths from Ebola in the UK by March ( 86% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-03-16; judged right by kuudes on 2015-03-07.
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There will be less than 500 deaths from Ebola in the UK by March ( 93% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-03-16; judged right by kuudes on 2015-03-07.
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There will be less than 5000 deaths from Ebola in the UK by March ( 99% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-03-16; judged right by kuudes on 2015-03-07.
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Tuxedage will face bitter rejection and defeat as he asks his crush to date him. ( 66% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2014-10-24; known on 2014-10-27; judged right by Tuxedage on 2014-10-26.
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Less than 10 people will die of Ebola in Germany within the next year ( 87% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by qznc on 2014-10-21; known on 2015-10-21; judged right by Josh Holland on 2015-10-21.
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The mid-market exchange rate will average below $1.275/€ (i.e. less than 1.275 dollars can be bought per euro) over november 2014. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Philip_W on 2014-10-20; known on 2014-12-01; judged right by Philip_W on 2014-11-30.
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Virgin Galactic will send its first paying customers into a suborbital trajectory by December 31, 2014. ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by from3004 on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.
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Ebola will be considered endemic in a year. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2014-10-14; known on 2015-10-14; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-12.
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Lib Dems win at most 5 MPs at the next election. ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-10-12; known on 2015-05-07; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
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My ASUS X99 motherboard will burn out some component or otherwise suffer electrically-induced damaged, in the first 30 days of operation ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-09-21; known on 2014-11-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-10-27.
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Ebola outbreak kills more than 30000 people by the end of the year ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by phreeza on 2014-09-15; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.
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The current truce between Israel and Hamas will hold until at least January 15, 2015 ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-08-27; known on 2015-01-15; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-15.
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The situation on Ukraine will turn into international conflict before end of 2014 and battles will be fought on Polish territory. ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by TeMPOraL on 2014-08-14; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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Ebola virus will be controlled in 6 months ( 52% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-15; known on 2015-02-15; judged right by kuudes on 2015-02-19.
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The Rosetta Probe's Philae lander will touch down successfully (at least 9 of its 10 scientific instruments working) on comet 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko by the end of November. ( 85% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by tdhellma on 2014-08-14; known on 2014-11-30; judged right by kuudes on 2014-11-30.
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The government following the next UK election will not be a formal coalition. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-06; known on 2015-05-10; judged right by kuudes on 2015-05-08.
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Nick Clegg will remain in the cabinet until the next general election. ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-06; known on 2015-05-07; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-05-05.
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Labour will win the most seats in the next UK general election. ( 58% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-06; known on 2015-05-07; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
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Ed Miliband will lead the Labour party to the next general election. ( 75% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-26; known on 2015-05-07; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-05-05.
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Nick Clegg will lead the Lib Dems into the next general election. ( 89% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-26; known on 2015-05-07; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-05-05.
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The next UK general election will be held on 7 May 2015 ( 97% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-22; known on 2015-05-07; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-05-07.
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MH370 confirmed as landed on a runway anywhere in the world. ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by procran on 2014-03-17; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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The Newsweek reporter will be fired within a year. ( 32% confidence; 14 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-03-07; known on 2015-03-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-03-07.
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World War 3 will start by december 2014 ( 1% confidence; 29 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by refnum on 2014-03-03; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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Dogecoin's market cap will surpass Litecoin's during 2014 ( 45% confidence; 16 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2014-02-13; known on 2015-01-03; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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Obama will remain President of USA at end of 2014. ( 98% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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Market cap in USD of top ten altcoins as a percentage of bitcoin market cap in USD to grow by at least 10% in a year. ( 54% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2014-01-22; known on 2015-01-22; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-22.
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Sherlock season 4 will be out by Christmas. ( 23% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by shadow1537 on 2014-01-20; known on 2014-12-25; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-25.
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The total market cap of all non-bitcoin cryptocurrencies will beat Bitcoin's market cap at some point during the year. ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2014-01-15; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.
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A different cryptocurrency beats Bitcoin in market cap at some point during the year. ( 7% confidence; 31 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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After Steve Ballmer Leaves Microsoft, the new stock price will nose dive. This will be because the incoming CEO will realize the mess he was left to clean up. By the end of 2014, the price will be around $30/share- (possibly – in the high $20's) ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mastermind8189 on 2013-12-31; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.
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The outbreak of a civil war in Bahrain between Summer and Autumn 2014 ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by deanmullen2014 on 2013-12-31; known on 2014-10-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-11-04.
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Spotify will overtake iTunes as the main source of music distribution in the United States, United Kingdom and Ireland. ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by DillonNolan on 2013-12-31; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.
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BBRY will double in value in 2014 to $14/share. John Chen will become a legendary CEO becoming known for his turnaround efforts. ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by mastermind8189 on 2013-12-30; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.
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Zerocoin functionality incorporated into Bitcoin within 1 year ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-22; known on 2014-11-22; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-11-23.
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Zerocoin as functioning altcoin network within a year ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-22; known on 2014-11-22; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-11-23.
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Bitcoin falls to a value of less than 1$ per Bitcoin by the end of 2014. (prediction inspired by http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1qvbzk/bloomberg_us_agencies_to_say_bitcoins_offer/cdh3ty2 ) ( 2% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-20; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.
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Bitcoin suffers a crash by the end of 2014, defined as falling to below 20% of its all-time high. (prediction inspired by http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1qvbzk/bloomberg_us_agencies_to_say_bitcoins_offer/cdh3ty2 ) ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-20; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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The Labour party gain an absolute majority in the next British general election ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by a0c4a123f7 on 2013-11-13; known on 2015-05-09; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-05-08.
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Intrade will be open for business by 31 December 2014 ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by najdorf on 2013-11-11; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by najdorf on 2014-12-31.
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Maxmaps will no longer be working at Squad on November 9th 2014 00:01 UTC. ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by eface88 on 2013-11-09; known on 2014-11-09; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-11-12.
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Yvain will be fired (or asked to resign) from his Psychiatrist position due to breach of confidentiality in the next 2 years. ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Tenoke on 2013-07-18; known on 2015-07-18; judged wrong by Malcolm Ocean on 2015-07-19.
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Wendy Davis elected governor of Texas. ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Omid on 2013-10-05; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-11-05.
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In addition to Pluto's 5 known moons, at least 3 additional satellites will be identified following the New Horizons fly-by. ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by dusk on 2013-07-17; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-31.
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Amazon will purchase 50% of PayPal from Ebay by the end of 2014. ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dovfischer on 2013-07-15; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by ericlefevre on 2014-12-31.
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Comprehensive immigration reform will get through the House of Representitives, that has a) path to legalizations for undocumented immigrants given they pay back tax debt b) skill/ merit based immigration decisions, and a deprioritization of family connec ( 23% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by hucavanagh on 2013-07-01; known on 2014-11-02; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-11-02.
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Tim Cook will be ousted as Apple CEO within the next 2 years. ( 31% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by andrevan on 2013-04-27; known on 2015-04-30; judged wrong by krazemon on 2015-04-30.
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The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022 ( 34% confidence; 35 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-15; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by M on 2022-01-01.
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The Euro will not be dead by 2016 ( 94% confidence; 29 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by challquist on 2013-04-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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The Democratic Party will keep a majority in the US Senate following the 2014 Midterm Elections ( 46% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-22; known on 2014-11-05; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2014-11-05.
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By end of 2014, DA Carmen Ortiz will no longer be US Attorney for Massachusetts. ( 20% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-01-15; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.
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The Willy Brandt Airport Berlin will open before the end of 2014 ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by dhoe on 2013-01-10; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by dhoe on 2014-12-31.
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“Ubuntu for phones” will have less than 5% market share by the end of 2014. ( 91% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by dhoe on 2013-01-05; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by dhoe on 2014-12-31.
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The Euro won’t be the official currency in Greece at the end of 2015 ( 4% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ChristianKl on 2012-12-06; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-31.