Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 45% | 60% | 67% | 83% | 97% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 20 | 35 | 36 | 24 | 37 | 8 | 160 |
Displaying all predictions made by aarongertler. Filter by:
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When I test the effect of caffeine consumption on sleep quality, I will find a significant effect for 1 can of coke (32mg) regardless of time of day of consumption. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by nsavir on 2014-04-24; known on 2014-09-01; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2014-10-25.
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“better than 50/50 chance Kepler-186f has technological life” —Hontas Farmer ( 0% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-04-21; known on 2019-04-21; judged wrong by gwern on 2019-04-22.
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Tammy Pham will not regret taking the summer position in New York rather than San Francisco. ( 80% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-04-04; known on 2014-08-31; judged right by aarongertler on 2014-08-31.
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As of March 27th, 2018, I will still consider “effective altruism” to be a key part of my identity, and will still be donating at least 10% of my income to charity, conditional on my not having become convinced that saving to donate later makes more sense ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-03-28; known on 2018-03-27; judged right by aarongertler on 2018-03-27.
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I will resolve the CFAR/YEI April 11th conflict in favor of YEI. ( 70% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-03-26; known on 2014-03-27; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2014-03-27.
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The Yale Record will make a profit of at least $1000 between September 1st, 2014 and June 1st, 2015, including alumni donations. ( 75% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-03-24; known on 2015-06-01; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2015-06-21.
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I will have made 10 predictions relating to events in my own life by September 1st, 2014. ( 65% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-03-23; known on 2014-09-01; judged right by aarongertler on 2014-09-01.
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I will have made 10 predictions on this website before September 1st, 2014 ( 60% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-03-23; known on 2014-09-01.
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The Newsweek reporter will be fired within a year. ( 32% confidence; 14 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-03-07; known on 2015-03-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-03-07.
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Dogecoin's market cap will surpass Litecoin's during 2014 ( 45% confidence; 16 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2014-02-13; known on 2015-01-03; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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Barack Obama to attempt to run for a third term as President (either through Constitutional amendment or other method). ( 0% confidence; 41 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-24; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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I will graduate from Denison University by May 17, 2014. ( 94% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-06-17; known on 2014-05-17; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2014-05-18.
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Google Docs will survive 5 more years ( 85% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030 ( 84% confidence; 27 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky's book on rationality will be published within 3 years. ( 46% confidence; 25 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2014-10-04; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-10-04.
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The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020. ( 83% confidence; 21 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jack on 2009-10-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.