Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 100% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 75% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 9 |
Displaying all predictions made by jayk. Filter by:
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Correcting for education, IQ, income, religion, race, age, and some measure of health, rural people are more likely than urban people to commit the naturalistic fallacy. ( 59% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Leo on 2014-02-09; known on 2024-02-09.
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Elder Scrolls Online will sell over 10 million copies within a year of release (across all platforms), becoming the worlds largest MMORPG ( 25% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-02-09; known on 2015-04-04; judged wrong by jasticE on 2015-04-19.
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Canada will arrive first in the 2014 Olympics. (ie. number of gold medals) ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-09; known on 2014-02-24; judged wrong by Mati on 2014-02-24.
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There will have been modular smart phones on the market before 2020. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Mati on 2020-01-03.
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scientists won't have the same technology in “back to the future” in 2015 ( 98% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jeredcaleb on 2014-02-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by reubensandwich on 2015-06-28.
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minecraft will have a new update ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jeredcaleb on 2014-02-02; known on 2014-02-28.
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Google will include Bitcoin in the list of currencies that you can automatically convert through the search bar in 2014. ( 39% confidence; 23 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tenoke on 2014-01-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by adbge on 2014-07-30.
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2014 Less Wrong Survey will have < 20% female. ( 89% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by mad on 2015-01-06.
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In 2014, there is a mass shooting in USA killing > 10 people. ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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US government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt. ( 98% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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China's government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt. ( 69% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2015-01-01.