Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 38% | 57% | 77% | 85% | 97% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 13 | 37 | 35 | 48 | 62 | 2 | 197 |
Displaying all predictions made by danielfilan. Filter by:
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Sam and Toby will win the race to reach the bottom of New Zealand. [please only predict if you don't have a Nebula subscription] ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by danielfilan on 2023-03-09; known on 2023-05-02; judged right by danielfilan on 2023-07-11.
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Ben and Adam will win the race to visit the most US states. ( 87% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2022-12-21; known on 2023-01-04; judged right by danielfilan on 2023-01-13.
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I will be at the airport by 5:17 am. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by danielfilan on 2022-11-26; known on 2022-11-26; judged right by danielfilan on 2022-11-26.
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Conditioned on me visiting family for Thanksgiving, we will talk about the FTX scandal. ( 65% confidence )
Created by danielfilan on 2022-11-19; known on 2022-11-25; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2022-11-25.
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I will have at least 50 followers on Mastodon by December 31. ( 25% confidence )
Created by danielfilan on 2022-11-18; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2022-12-31.
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Twitter will be online on the 15th of December 2022. On that date, I will be able to post a tweet and other people will be able to see it. ( 89% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2022-11-18; known on 2022-12-15; judged right by danielfilan on 2022-12-15.
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Binance goes bankrupt ( 49% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-17; known on 2024-01-01.
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Ron DeSantis wins the 2024 Republican presidential primary ( 56% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-14; known on 2024-09-01.
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I will post a tweet between Dec 1 2023 and Dec 7 2023 (inclusive). ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2022-11-12; known on 2023-12-07.
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Sam Bankman-Fried will be arrested before January 1, 2024, on charges related to the (as of 2022-11-10) liquidity crunch at FTX. ( 51% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pmberg on 2022-11-10; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-13.
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Britain will leave the EU as a “soft Brexit”, keeping the four freedoms. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Alti Camelus on 2017-06-20; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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No GOP-candidate President elected by the Electoral College before 2033 ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-17; known on 2033-01-01.
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Bitcoin at 10,000,000$/BTC (or equivalent in VEF or other currency) on any market where trading occurs. ( 6% confidence; 16 wagers; 31 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-10; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by bendini on 2017-12-27.
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Rey was a child trained at Luke's Jedi Academy. ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-01; known on 2018-06-02; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2017-12-21.
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Rey is a Kenobi ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-01; known on 2018-06-02; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2017-12-21.
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Rey is a reincarnated Anakin Skywalker ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-01; known on 2018-06-02; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2017-12-21.
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The Democratic Party will run Hillary Clinton for President in the 2020 election ( 3% confidence; 17 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-01; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-02.
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Indonesia will devolve into a full-fledged islamic theocracy or decay into civil war-torn provinces largely dominated by Sharia law till the end of Ramadan 2019. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Neonblitz on 2017-05-23; known on 2019-06-04; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-07-09.
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Trump will not be president at the beginning of 2018. ( 12% confidence; 20 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by burning.harvest on 2017-05-19; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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President Trump will resign on his 146 th day in office ( 9% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by John8128 on 2017-05-16; known on 2017-06-15; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-06-15.
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Emmanuel Macron will be elected the next President of France. ( 77% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-23; known on 2017-05-08; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-05-07.
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Scotland & Canada are one country on July 15th, 2019 ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-20; known on 2019-07-15; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2019-07-15.
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Politics, US – A member of the Trump campaign is arrested in connection with an investigation into communications with Russian agents or the Russian government before the end of 2017-04-22. ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-15; known on 2017-04-23; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-04-24.
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“Yes” succeeds in Turkey's referendum ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-04-17; judged right by ioannes on 2017-04-17.
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The United States will be in an active, major war with North Korea as of May 1, 2017. ( 8% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-11; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-05-01.
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Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2018 ( 82% confidence; 52 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2017-03-31; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death. ( 6% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2017-03-17; known on 2037-03-17; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-09-08.
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Trump will be removed from office before his term is complete. ( 29% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sdd167 on 2017-03-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-01-04.
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Trump will win a second term ( 46% confidence; 74 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2020-11-08; judged wrong by regex on 2020-11-20.
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Marine Le Pen is not elected President of France, conditional on her running ( 63% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2017-05-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-05-07.
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The large picture of a young Germaine Greer will still be on a noticeboard in the Computer Science and IT building of the ANU on March 1, 2016 ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-12-14; known on 2016-03-01.
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Lee Sedol attempts suicide ( 1% confidence; 21 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-12; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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The British Conservative Party will win the next UK general election with an outright majority of MPs (not conditional on election date) ( 62% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Waring on 2016-02-11; known on 2020-05-10; judged wrong by Waring on 2017-08-03.
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Jane Kelly is nominated to replace Scalia. ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-02-14; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-02-02.
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Obama will successfully appoint Scalia's appointment. ( 43% confidence; 33 wagers; 22 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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Jim Webb to be the next elected President of the US. ( 0% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-11; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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I will switch from Emacs as my primary text editor before 2017. ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-02-10; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2017-01-01.
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I will get a cold in the next week. ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-02-10; known on 2016-02-17; judged right by danielfilan on 2016-02-13.
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I will win my bet with Huw Price that 2/3rds of a panel of three physicists will assign less than 50% credence to cold fusion or other new-physics energy production by Andrea Rossi/Industrial Heat or Robert Godes/Brillouin Energy on New Year's Eve 2018. ( 99% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by CarlShulman on 2016-02-09; known on 2019-01-31; judged right by CarlShulman on 2019-06-26.
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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020 ( 43% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2021-06-01; judged right by gwern on 2021-06-01.
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Jeb Bush will be the next President-elect ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-03; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-02-21.
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AlphaGo wins 5-0 in march ( 55% confidence; 34 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2016-02-02; known on 2016-03-30; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-13.
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AlphaGo defeats Lee Sedol in 3/5 or more games in March ( 64% confidence; 76 wagers; 39 comments )
Created by Jach on 2016-01-28; known on 2016-04-01; judged right by Jach on 2016-03-12.
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Lee Sedol will win match against AlphaGo but lose at least one game ( 35% confidence; 25 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-28; known on 2016-05-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-12.
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Marco Rubio will win the 2016 Republican Primary in New Hampshire ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-02-10; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-02-10.
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Donald Trump will win the 2016 Republican Primary in New Hampshire. ( 58% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-02-10; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-10.
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Ted Cruz will win the 2016 Republican Primary in New Hampshire. ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-02-10; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-02-10.
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Ted Cruz will win the 2016 Republican Caucus in Iowa ( 45% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-02-02; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-02.
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Donald Trump will win the 2016 Republican Caucus in Iowa ( 43% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-02-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-02.
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Marco Rubio will win the 2016 Republican Caucus in Iowa. ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-02-02; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2016-02-02.
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Hillary Clinton's average share in Democratic presidential primary polling shall be at least 55.0%, rounded to the first decimal, at 11:59:59 p.m. (ET) on January 31, 2016, according to RealClearPolitics.com ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-02-01.
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I am still using Complice on December 1 2016. ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-01-13; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-12-02.
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Donald Trump will win the first four primaries/caucuses (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada). ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-11; known on 2016-02-25; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2016-02-02.
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After the end of this phone call with Vayama, I will be able to successfully book my flight tickets on their website the first time I try to do so. ( 60% confidence )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-01-11; known on 2016-01-11; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-01-11.
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Computers will beat the best humans at Go before 2017 ( 54% confidence; 21 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Houshalter on 2016-01-11; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Houshalter on 2016-03-15.
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I will be accepted for an interview at that type foundry, after having written, just for my application, a font previewing app with the tools they use. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Rory O’Kane on 2016-01-09; known on 2016-01-30.
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Malheur will no longer be occupied by armed insurgents by the end of the month. ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-01-08; known on 2016-01-31; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-02-11.
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Malheur insurgency to be resolved within a week. ( 38% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-01-08; known on 2016-01-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-16.
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I will switch away from Sublime Text as my primary editor before 2017 ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-08; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-01.
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Created by danielfilan on 2016-01-02; known on 2016-01-15; judged right by danielfilan on 2016-01-02.
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Bharat will Have 500 Million Internet Users By 2017 —Internet and Mobile Association of India (IAMAI) and KPMG ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-19; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2017-11-05.
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Donald Trump to be the next US President. ( 26% confidence; 73 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-30; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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Rey is Luke's daughter. ( 59% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2015-12-29; known on 2019-12-29; judged wrong by krazemon on 2019-12-24.
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My paper will be accepted to the AISTATS conference. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-10-07; known on 2015-12-29; judged right by danielfilan on 2015-12-22.
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'Nail and Gear' will win the Hello Internet flag election. ( 30% confidence )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-17; known on 2015-12-20; judged right by danielfilan on 2015-12-17.
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The New York times will report it confirmed that Craig Wright is Satoshi Nakamoto by 2016-12-31 ( 18% confidence; 13 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by solipsist on 2015-12-09; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by solipsist on 2016-12-31.
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All Ohio Kasich/Boehner ticket wins GOP nomination. ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-09-29; known on 2016-11-16; judged wrong by Afforess on 2016-10-06.
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All 14 people who currently say on FB that they are going to my going-away dinner will actually go. ( 13% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-12-02; known on 2015-12-07; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-12-06.
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The IMF will vote in favor of adding the Yuan to the Special Drawing Rights basket on Nov 30th, 2015 ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-11-27; known on 2015-11-30; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-30.
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I will complete the problems from chapter 4 of Awodey to my satisfaction by midnight Sunday evening. ( 70% confidence )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-26; known on 2015-11-30; judged right by danielfilan on 2015-11-27.
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The difference in pomodoros done on eating vs non-fasting days will turn out to be significant at p<0.05 (two-tailed). ( 20% confidence )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-26; known on 2015-11-26; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-11-26.
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The Force Awakens will reveal the Darth Darth Binks theory to be broadly correct. ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Calien on 2015-11-25; known on 2015-12-17; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-12-26.
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I get the monetary prize from Peter McIntyre for changing his beliefs the most during the EA Australia retreat. ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-23; known on 2015-12-05; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-12-04.
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The next candidate to drop out of the Republican primary will be one of Santorum, Gilmore, Pataki, Graham or Pence. ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-18; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by danielfilan on 2015-12-22.
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I will be accepted for an internship at DeepMind. ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-12-03.
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I will do at least 77 pomodoro-equivalents this week. ( 50% confidence )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-17; known on 2015-11-23; judged right by danielfilan on 2015-11-23.
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There are ground troops from one or more then EU member states that are at least 1000 persons strong on ground of what is currently Syria at least once before the end of prediction. ( 30% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2015-11-16; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-07-01.
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Adams will win the London Chess Classic ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-15; known on 2015-12-13; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-12-14.
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So will win the London Chess Classic ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-13.
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The VIX index will go above 22 by December 4th. ( 52% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-11-14; known on 2015-12-05; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-12-05.
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At least one country leaves the Eurozone before 2018 ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by qznc on 2015-11-12; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Grischuk will win the London Chess Classic ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-13; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-12-14.
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Caruana will win the London Chess Classic ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-13; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-12-14.
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Vachier-Lagrave will win the London Chess Classic ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-13; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-12-14.
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Anand will win the London Chess Classic ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-13; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-12-14.
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Giri will win the London Chess Classic ( 24% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-13; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-12-14.
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Carlsen will win the London Chess Classic ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-13; judged right by Josh Holland on 2015-12-14.
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Aronian will win the London Chess Classic ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-13; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-12-14.
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Nakamura will win the London Chess Classic ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-13; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-12-14.
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Topalov will win the London Chess Classic ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-13; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-12-14.
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I will receieve “Reasons and Persons” and “On What Matters” by Derek Parfit as Christmas gifts this year. ( 53% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-26; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-12-26.
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I will do at least 15 pomodoro-equivalents today. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-11-13; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-11-13.
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Nicholas Christakis to cease to be Master of Silliman College by January 1, 2016 ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-09; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-01-06.
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I will own Mini Metro at noon on 1/1/2016. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-01-01.
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English Wikipedia will have greater than or equal to 6,000,000 articles by the end date of this prediction ( 22% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-05; known on 2018-11-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2018-11-01.
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The list of top charities that GiveWell will release next will include a charity that is not currently listed. ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-11-20.
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Out of the universities that I send out PhD applications to, I will be accepted by at least half. ( 63% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-05; known on 2016-05-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-03-03.
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David Leyonhjelm will not be a member of the Parliamentary Committee on Law Enforcement on March 1, 2016. ( 14% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-05; known on 2016-03-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-03-01.
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By the end of 2020, the obesity rate among adults 20 years or older in the United States will drop from 34.9% in 2012 to 30%… +/- .9 percent. ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Lissy on 2015-11-04; known on 2020-12-31.
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Missouri will be a swing state in 2016 (within 1% of the vote margin of the median Electoral College vote). ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-10-31; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.