Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 0% | 50% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
Displaying all predictions made by red_goose. Filter by:
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“Dow Jones to close ON or ABOVE 12250 on 31 Aug 2011” —Intrade ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-16; known on 2011-08-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-31.
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“Feb 2012 (G12) Gold Futures to close ON or ABOVE 1800 on 30 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-16; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“Any country currently using the Euro to announce their intention to drop it midnight ET 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.