Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 53% | 65% | 78% | 86% | 94% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 616 | 437 | 419 | 458 | 711 | 175 | 2816 |
Displaying all predictions made by JoshuaZ. Filter by:
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Trump will win the Republican nomination ( 70% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by LawrenceNewport on 2016-02-24; known on 2016-06-07; judged right by LawrenceNewport on 2016-06-14.
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Guantanamo Bay detention facility to close before year end. ( 18% confidence; 12 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-23; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-31.
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The British Conservative Party will win the next UK general election with an outright majority of MPs (not conditional on election date) ( 62% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Waring on 2016-02-11; known on 2020-05-10; judged wrong by Waring on 2017-08-03.
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@realDonaldTrump will be suspended from Twitter for a week or longer before 2017 ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-22; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-31.
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Russian Federation < 100 B Foreign Exchange reserves ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-02-22; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-02.
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Kim Jung Un ousted, assassinated, or somehow loses power of North Korea, either internally or from some international influence before year end. ( 9% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-22; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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I will not have eaten any meat intentionally before a month from now. ( 72% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Sahil on 2016-02-21; known on 2016-03-21; judged right by Sahil on 2016-04-06.
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I will not have eaten any meat intentionally for the next 30 years, starting now ( 29% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by arpanagarawal on 2016-02-21; known on 2046-02-21; judged wrong by Sahil on 2019-04-25.
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Michael Bloomberg wins the 2016 presidential election. ( 1% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-21; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Michael Bloomberg to enter the 2016 US presidential election as a candidate. ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-21; known on 2016-04-21; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-03-08.
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Bernie Sanders will run as a third party/independent if he does not win the Democratic Nomination. ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Faceh on 2016-02-20; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by Faceh on 2016-07-12.
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Land a robot on the Moon by 2017 for the Google Lunar X prize —Rahul Narayan, CEO of Team Indus, Bharat ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-18; known on 2017-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-27.
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Either the average cost of a public university education in America will double, the median income of a 4-year-degree holder will fall to 125% of a high school diploma holder, or the expected value of a public university education will turn negative. ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JohnWittle on 2016-02-17; known on 2025-06-01.
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No single GOP candidate will get >50% of delegates, and a brokered convention will ensue. ( 29% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-17; known on 2016-06-16; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-06-16.
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Another supreme court justice will die during Obama's presidency. ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-17; known on 2017-01-20; judged wrong by Faceh on 2017-01-20.
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Spain will default on its debt by 2022. ( 39% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-16; known on 2022-12-25.
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President Bernie Sanders Assassinated ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-02-16; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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Kanye West will be U.S. President-elect before 2025 ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-14; known on 2025-01-01.
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Today there will be >= 1 posts in my Facebook newsfeed about how Valentine's day is stupid, a secret ploy by corporations, or something something patriarchy. ( 82% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-02-14; known on 2016-02-15; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-02-15.
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There will be at least nine more gravitational wave detections announced in 2016 ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-01-01.
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There will be at least eight more gravitational wave detections announced in 2016 ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-01-01.
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There will be at least seven more gravitational wave detections announced in 2016 ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-01-01.
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There will be at least six more gravitational wave detections announced in 2016 ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-01-01.
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There will be at least five more gravitational wave detections announced in 2016 ( 49% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-01-01.
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There will be at least four more gravitational wave detections announced in 2016 ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-01-01.
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There will be at least three more gravitational wave detections announced in 2016 ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-01-01.
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There will be at least one more gravitational wave detection announced in 2016 ( 86% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-06-15.
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There will be at least two more gravitational wave detections announced in 2016 ( 71% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-01-01.
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World will eliminate malaria by 2030. ( 69% confidence; 13 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-14; known on 2030-12-25.
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Jane Kelly is nominated to replace Scalia. ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-02-14; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-02-02.
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Obama will successfully appoint Scalia's appointment. ( 43% confidence; 33 wagers; 22 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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A longterm (with humans present at least sixth months) colony will occur on Mars before it occurs on the Earth's moon. ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-13; known on 2050-01-01.
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North Korea’s government will survive the year 2016 without large civil war/revolt. ( 91% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Temeraire on 2016-02-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Bernie Sanders will win the Nevada primary ( 49% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by silacoid on 2016-02-13; known on 2016-02-21; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-21.
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By January 2020, there will be a commercial house cleaning robots (like a Roomba) that can take voice commands to go to specific parts of the house and clean those. ( 63% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-13; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-08.
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Independent of the next elected president of the United States, there will not exist a wall along the 1,954 mile border shared with Mexico within 8 years of inauguration. ( 74% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-13; known on 2025-01-20.
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Bharat Biotech will develop the first Zika vaccine by 2018. ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-13; known on 2018-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-27.
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US will not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers. (I assume this means 100 US deaths in 2016) ( 87% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Temeraire on 2016-02-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Temeraire on 2017-01-01.
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Jim Webb to be the next elected President of the US. ( 0% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-11; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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By 2030, Taiwan will be a part of China, without being a war. ( 15% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by danpop on 2016-02-11; known on 2030-01-01.
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When DeepDream for audio is invented, the output will cause seriously ill effects in humans like seizures. This will happen before 2020. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Houshalter on 2016-02-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2021. ( 46% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-09; known on 2022-06-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-12-05.
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I will win my bet with Huw Price that 2/3rds of a panel of three physicists will assign less than 50% credence to cold fusion or other new-physics energy production by Andrea Rossi/Industrial Heat or Robert Godes/Brillouin Energy on New Year's Eve 2018. ( 99% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by CarlShulman on 2016-02-09; known on 2019-01-31; judged right by CarlShulman on 2019-06-26.
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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2019 ( 50% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2020-06-01; judged right by deleteyourbrain on 2019-05-02.
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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2018 ( 34% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2019-06-01; judged right by Pablo on 2019-04-22.
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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020 ( 43% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2021-06-01; judged right by gwern on 2021-06-01.
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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2017 ( 9% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2018-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-06-01.
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Vladimir Putin is not the President of Russia at the end of this prediction. ( 40% confidence; 16 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-02-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-01-02.
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The 2016 Iowa GOP Caucus result does not get overturned/revised such that Trump takes first place. ( 92% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2016-02-05; known on 2016-09-16; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-16.
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Bharat will meet or exceed the Copenhagen pledge to reduce the emissions intensity of GDP by 20–25% in 2020 compared to 2005 levels. ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-04; known on 2021-12-25.
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Cannabis will be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substances Act before 2023 ( 44% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2016-02-04; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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In the wake of the listeria outbreaks, at least one Blue Bell Creameries employee will face criminal charges by 2018 ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2016-02-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by unexpectedEOF on 2018-06-01.
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A US state (other than Florida) will declare at least a county-wide state of emergency due to the Zika virus before June of 2016 ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2016-02-04; known on 2016-06-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-02.
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MDMA-mediated psychotherapy receives FDA approval in the next five years. ( 11% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-03; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-12.
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Jeb Bush will be the next President-elect ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-03; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-02-21.
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AlphaGo wins 5-0 in march ( 55% confidence; 34 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2016-02-02; known on 2016-03-30; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-13.
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Bernie Sanders will win the New Hampshire Primary ( 85% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-02-02; known on 2016-02-08; judged right by Temeraire on 2016-02-14.
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Donald Trump will shave his head any time before the general election (no GOP nomination needed) ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-01; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-11-08.
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Carly Fiorina will be the next President-elect ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-30; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-11.
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The FBI will recommend an indictment of Hillary Clinton before the 2016 general election ( 28% confidence; 19 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-30; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-05.
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No 2016 Presidential candidate receives a majority of Electoral votes ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-30; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally. ( 10% confidence; 17 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-29; known on 2022-12-25.
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Bharat will be ranked 2nd in the world by 2020 for steel production. ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-29; known on 2020-12-25; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-12.
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Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus. ( 99% confidence; 23 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-29; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2023-01-01.
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AlphaGo defeats Lee Sedol in 3/5 or more games in March ( 64% confidence; 76 wagers; 39 comments )
Created by Jach on 2016-01-28; known on 2016-04-01; judged right by Jach on 2016-03-12.
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Lee Sedol will win match against AlphaGo but lose at least one game ( 35% confidence; 25 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-28; known on 2016-05-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-12.
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SpaceX successfully launches a reused rocket in 2016. (Payload reaches outer space, i.e. 100km) ( 67% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Oil will end 2016 lower than $40 a barrel ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Temeraire on 2017-01-01.
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ISIS will control less territory at the end of 2016 than it does right now ( 67% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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No terrorist attack in the in the US will kill > 100 people in 2016 ( 88% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Democrats take the Senate in 2016. ( 48% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by lalaithion on 2016-12-01.
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Ben Carson will be the next President-elect ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-28; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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There will be a total solar eclipse on June 25, 2522 ( 95% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2016-01-27; known on 2522-06-25.
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Rubio mops up on Super Tuesday, taking more than 60% of the primaries. ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-01-27; known on 2016-03-03; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-03-03.
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Brokered convention. ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-01-27; known on 2016-07-18; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-16.
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2016 Election is Clinton vs Rubio. ( 12% confidence; 22 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-01-27; known on 2016-10-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-10-01.
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Democrats win House of Representatives in 2016. ( 9% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-01-26; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03.
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2016 SpaceX successfully launches a reused rocket: ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-26; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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2016 North Korea’s government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt. ( 88% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-26; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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US will not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers 2016 ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-26; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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Summer Olympics in Brazil happen in 2016 ( 95% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-24; known on 2016-09-30; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-06.
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Unsongbook will have at least 50 but not more than 500 chapters and interludes when it is finished or has been abandoned for at least 1 year. ( 79% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-24; known on 2026-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2017-05-18.
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Unsongbook will have at least 100 but not more than 200 chapters and interludes when it is finished or has been abandoned for at least 1 year. ( 70% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-24; known on 2026-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-05-18.
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Michael Bloomberg will be the next President-elect ( 2% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-24; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Michael Bloomberg will announce that he is entering the 2016 Presidential race as an independent candidate ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-24; known on 2016-03-14; judged wrong by Afforess on 2016-03-08.
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Cultured meat will outsell traditional meat in the US by 2050 ( 29% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2016-01-20; known on 2050-01-01.
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President Obama will be impeached by the House of Representatives. ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Taymon on 2014-11-05; known on 2016-01-20.
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Sam gets me sick. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-20; known on 2016-01-24; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-24.
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US real GDP growth rate for 2018 will be under 2.0% ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-20; known on 2018-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-27.
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I will be out of my sling in four weeks. ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-18; known on 2016-02-21; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-21.
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I will be out of my sling in 5 weeks. ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-18; known on 2016-02-28; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-21.
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I will be out of my sling in 6 weeks. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-18; known on 2016-03-05; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-21.
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US recession in 2016. ( 48% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-17; known on 2017-01-18; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-18.
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Chinese economy will be larger than the US in the future. After that, India is the next best candidate that could surpass US economy in the next 25 years. After that China and India could be competing for number one — Masoyoshi Son, Softbank ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-17; known on 2040-06-24.
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Price of oil above $60 by the end of this year. http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=price+of+oil ( 13% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-02.
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Price of oil above $20 by the end of this year. http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=price+of+oil ( 87% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2017-01-16; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-01-02.
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Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years. ( 10% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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North Korean government collapses in the next 5 years. ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Amazon stock price will reach $700 at some point in 2016. ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by roshni on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by roshni on 2016-05-11.
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Marco Rubio will win the 2016 Republican Primary in New Hampshire ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-02-10; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-02-10.