Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 67% | 86% | 75% | 100% | 83% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 3 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 28 |
Displaying all predictions made by torekp. Filter by:
-
U6* unemployment will be under 10% by this time next year. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-02-10; known on 2016-02-10.
-
The standard unemployment rate will be below 5% by January 2016. ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-02-10; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2016-02-02.
-
There will not be a recession in this decade (two consecutive quarters of negative gdp growth) in the US. ( 34% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-02-10; known on 2020-01-02; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
-
Kim Jong-un is reported dead within 100 calendar days. ( 3% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by asd on 2014-09-28; known on 2015-01-06; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-06.
-
Created by torekp on 2014-05-25; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by torekp on 2014-06-01.
-
The continuous-normal-distribution random-payoff games will have < 3.4% Prisoner's Dilemmas (estimated to the nearest 0.1%). ( 48% confidence )
Created by torekp on 2014-05-25; known on 2014-06-01; judged wrong by torekp on 2014-06-01.
-
Hannes Rusch simulated random-payoff two-person games (http://www2.units.it/etica/2013_2/RUSCH.pdf) and found that 3.4% of them fit a technical definition of “Prisoner's Dilemma”. The payoffs were uniformly distributed integers in the interval [0-N] and ( 4% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by torekp on 2014-05-25; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by torekp on 2014-06-01.
-
Scott, of Slate Star Codex, will land his residency ( 72% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by torekp on 2013-03-01; known on 2013-06-01; judged right by simplicio on 2013-03-11.
-
There'll be a hollywood movie featuring mesh worm robot adversaries by end of 2017 ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-11; known on 2017-12-31.
-
By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone. ( 53% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-04; known on 2022-08-04; judged right by atzeje on 2022-05-23.
-
In the 2012 election, Obama will pick up at least one state he didn't win in 2008. ( 30% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-08-01; known on 2012-11-10; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-11-07.
-
In 2032, solar power will be at least 150% of the second highest energy source of us consumption (in kwh). ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2012-07-28; known on 2032-01-01.
-
I will stop posting on Less Wrong before the end of the year. ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-06; known on 2013-02-02; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2013-01-03.
-
There will be a maximum of 3 people who have further contributed to my stats on google docs by Tuesday. ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JeffreyTse on 2012-04-01; known on 2012-04-03; judged right by JeffreyTse on 2012-04-02.
-
Murder rate has bottomed in the US (2013 murder rate > 2011 according to fbi stats http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/ucr) ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-31; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
-
Foreign military intervention in Mali ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Leo on 2012-03-26; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
-
GJP: #1089 Will Iran successfully detonate a nuclear device, either atmospherically, underground, or underwater before 1 January 2013? ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
-
Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ( 54% confidence; 20 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2012-02-18; known on 2032-02-17.
-
WTI Oil front month (96 US$ today) will go lower and reach 50 US$ by the end of 2012 ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by herb on 2011-11-21; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-31.
-
SOPA will pass through congress, and then it will not be vetoed. ( 49% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Grognor on 2011-12-21; known on 2012-10-16; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-07-26.
-
Within 5 years biometrics will displace passwords (IBM “5 in 5” http://asmarterplanet.com/blog/2011/12/the-next-5-in-5-you-will-never-need-a-password-again.html) ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-12-20; known on 2016-12-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-12-20.
-
“Newt Gingrich to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012.” -Intrade ( 18% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-28; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-11-10.
-
My chart will settle into a pattern of moderate underconfidence (each point's accuracy between 20% and 10% above confidence) ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-25; known on 2012-05-25; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.
-
Occupy Wall Street (NYC) will continue at least 30 more days. ( 79% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by torekp on 2011-10-23; known on 2011-11-23; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-23.
-
The judge will rule that Julian Assange be extradited to Sweden after hearings in July. ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-07; known on 2011-10-01; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-11-02.
-
Spot gold price will touch at least $2000 by December 31, 2012. ( 52% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dakyne on 2011-07-16; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by dakyne on 2013-01-01.
-
Silver spot price will touch $50 or higher by December 31, 2012. ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dakyne on 2011-07-14; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by dakyne on 2013-01-01.
-
XiXiDu will not comment or post to LW for 5 years. ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-11; known on 2016-07-11; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-16.
-
2012 is not end of this world! ( 98% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-11; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
-
Bush will commit suicide by the next 3 years. ( 4% confidence; 21 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by puya on 2011-04-06; known on 2014-08-09; judged wrong by clemux on 2014-08-09.