Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 43% | 63% | 71% | 83% | 93% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 373 | 575 | 496 | 412 | 690 | 110 | 2656 |
Displaying all predictions made by gwern. Filter by:
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Adderall: day 11 ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-23.
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Adderall: day 10 ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-23.
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Adderall: day 9 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-23.
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Adderall: day 8 ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-23.
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Adderall: day 6 ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-23.
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Adderall: day 5 ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-23.
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Adderall: day 3 ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-23.
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Adderall: day 2 ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-23.
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Adderall: day 1 ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-23.
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“I expect Apple to move to a modular architecture where the building blocks for high performance computers are generally Mac Minis.” —Robert X Cringely ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2012-06-01; judged wrong by Michael Stevens on 2012-06-01.
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'I think Apple’s Macintosh Pro line of computers is dead.' —Robert X Cringely ( 50% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.
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Darwin's employer was Charles Simonyi ( 2% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-23.
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Darwin's employer was Peter Thiel. ( 3% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-23.
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Darwin's employer was Bezos. ( 4% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-23.
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Darwin's employer was either Bezos, Thiel, or Simonyi. ( 9% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-23.
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Darwin's employer was one of the 6 named billionaires. ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-23.
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Nokia's share price will fall by 50% in the next two years ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Michael Stevens on 2011-08-22; known on 2013-08-22; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-06-05.
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A Latin poem roughly the same as posted will appear in HP:MoR inside Bacon's diary either as a quote or written by Bacon. ( 67% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-01.
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Mike Darwin will post part 4 of his diet series before or during Wednesday (EST). ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-21; known on 2011-08-25; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-25.
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“In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones” —Marc Andreessen ( 78% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-20; known on 2021-08-20; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2021-08-20.
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Either of my haiku will make the top 25 of the ANN contest ( 7% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-20; known on 2011-08-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-26.
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Google+ will revoke its ban on pseudonymous accounts within a year, due to SDr's petition campaign. ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-20; known on 2012-08-20; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-20.
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Google+ will revoke its ban on pseudonymous accounts within a year. ( 19% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-20; known on 2012-08-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-20.
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I will find a buyer for my car with a blown head gasket for >= $800 ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jach on 2011-08-18; known on 2012-01-16; judged right by Jach on 2011-10-22.
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The Hubble Telescope will not deorbit before January 1, 2020. ( 67% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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The Hubble Telescope will deorbit before the end of 2025 ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-18; known on 2026-01-01.
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The kidnappings in Sanderson’s “The Alloy of Law” will turn out to be in order to construct a captive breeding program to make Mistborn ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-18; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-13.
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The kidnappings in Sanderson's “The Alloy of Law” will turn out to be in order to make hemalurgic spikes from the victims. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-18; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-08.
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The James Webb Telescope will launch successfully by the end of 2015 ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-18; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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Clojure becomes dominant JVM language on GitHub ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jach on 2011-08-18; known on 2016-10-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-16.
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Nintendo officially offers bluetooth controllers with game-pack slot attachment devices for cell phones ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jach on 2011-08-18; known on 2013-10-16; judged wrong by Jach on 2013-10-16.
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Second edition of 3DS out by Christmas 2012 ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Jach on 2011-08-18; known on 2012-12-16; judged right by Jach on 2012-08-27.
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The Hobbit Part 1 will gross more on its opening weekend than LotR: Return of the King ( 71% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Jach on 2011-08-18; known on 2012-12-16; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-16.
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Michele Bachmann will be revealed as a drug addict before Election Day ( 9% confidence; 10 wagers; 73 comments )
Created by Jach on 2011-07-20; known on 2012-11-06; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-06.
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HPMOR will update again by October 20th ( 55% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-17; known on 2011-10-21; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-25.
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Syrian president Bashar al-Assad will lose control over his country in 2011. ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Alexander Kruel on 2011-08-17; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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I will have watched every video on Khan Academy by August 2013. ( 39% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Alexander Kruel on 2011-08-17; known on 2013-08-17; judged wrong by dk on 2013-11-04.
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By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms. ( 30% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Alexander Kruel on 2011-08-17; known on 2030-01-01.
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Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030 ( 26% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Alexander Kruel on 2011-08-17; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by Porejide on 2011-08-25.
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I will find a frame at a reasonable price for my large painting. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by cadbar on 2011-08-17; known on 2011-08-17; judged wrong by cadbar on 2011-08-17.
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Google will sell all hardware developing and producing parts of Motorola Mobile before 1. Jan 2012 ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2011-08-16; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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Harry Altman and I will have at least one joint paper published by the end of 2013 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-16; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by Sniffnoy on 2012-10-18.
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Relationship between P and BPP resolved by 2045 ( 69% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-16; known on 2045-01-01.
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“Euro/US Dollar to close ON or ABOVE 1.4000 on 30 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-16; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-01.
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“Feb 2012 (G12) Gold Futures to close ON or ABOVE 1600 on 30 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-16; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-01.
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“The US Economy will go into Recession during 2011” —Intrade ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-16; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-01.
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“Dow Jones to close ON or ABOVE 12250 on 31 Aug 2011” —Intrade ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-16; known on 2011-08-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-31.
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“United States GDP growth for Q2 of 2011 will be positive” —Intrade ( 98% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-16; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by faws on 2012-01-01.
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“Dow Jones to close ON or ABOVE 12000 on 30 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-16; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by faws on 2012-01-01.
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“Feb 2012 (G12) Gold Futures to close ON or ABOVE 1700 on 30 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-16; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-01.
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“Dow Jones to close ON or ABOVE 10750 on 31 Aug 2011” —Intrade ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-16; known on 2011-09-01; judged right by Serge on 2011-09-01.
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“Feb 2012 (G12) Gold Futures to close ON or ABOVE 1800 on 30 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-16; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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I will win the LW SRS contest. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-01; known on 2011-08-19; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-19.
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“125 or more US banks to fail during 2011” —Intrade ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-01-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-03.
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“Dec 2011 unemployment rate to be 9.4% or higher” —Intrade ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-01-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-07.
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“Andy Coulson to be charged with any criminal offence before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“Rebekah Brooks to be charged with any criminal offence before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-12-31.
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“Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-31.
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“Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 16% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“Sudan to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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“Sudan to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-31.
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“Sudan to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“Syria to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-31.
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“Syria to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-31.
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“Syria to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“Iran to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-31.
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“Iran to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-31.
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“Iran to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“Cuba to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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“Cuba to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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“Cuba to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“Any country currently using the Euro to announce their intention to drop it midnight ET 31 Dec 2014” —Intrade ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-12-31.
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“Any country currently using the Euro to announce their intention to drop it midnight ET 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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“Any country currently using the Euro to announce their intention to drop it midnight ET 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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“Magnitude 9.0 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“Magnitude 8.5 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“Magnitude 8.0 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“China to conduct overt military action against Taiwan before midnight ET 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-31.
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“China to conduct overt military action against Taiwan before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-31.
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“China to conduct overt military action against Taiwan before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“Bird Flu (H5N1) to be confirmed in the USA before midnight ET on 30 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-30.
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“United States to conduct overt military action against North Korea before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.
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“United States to conduct overt military action against North Korea before midnight ET on 30 Jun 2012” —Intrade ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-06-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-06-30.
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“United States to conduct overt military action against North Korea before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“United States to conduct overt military action against North Korea before midnight ET on 30 Sep 2011” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-30.
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“An internationally recognised Palestinian state to be established before midnight ET 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 14% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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“An internationally recognised Palestinian state to be established before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-31.
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“An internationally recognised Palestinian state to be established before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“Hamas accepts Israel's right to exist before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“Hamas accepts Israel's right to exist before midnight ET on 30 Sep 2011” —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-30.
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“Magnitude 9.0 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“Magnitude 8.0 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“Bird Flu (H5N1) to be confirmed in the USA before midnight ET on 30 Dec 2011” ( 2% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-30.
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“Bird Flu (H5N1) to be confirmed in the USA before midnight ET on 30 Sep 2011” ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-30.
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“Steve Jobs to depart as CEO of Apple before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 9% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-24.
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“The Freedom Tower to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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“The Chicago Spire to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-12-31.
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“The Chicago Spire to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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“The Chicago Spire to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.