Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 86% | 63% | 73% | 97% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 2 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 29 | 4 | 65 |
Displaying all predictions made by phreeza. Filter by:
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Germany's Greens choose Robert Habeck as chancellor candidate before May ( 33% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2021-04-18; known on 2021-05-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2021-05-01.
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President Obama will be impeached by the House of Representatives. ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Taymon on 2014-11-05; known on 2016-01-20.
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No 3rd party verification for North Korea's claim to have tested a thermonuclear weapon. ( 74% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-06; known on 2016-12-16; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-08.
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Angela Merkel will serve another term as chancellor of Germany ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by phreeza on 2016-01-07; known on 2017-10-16; judged right by iCrown on 2017-09-25.
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2016 predictions: No US politicians will be assassinated. ( 92% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-12-31.
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2016 predictions: there will not be any terrorist attacks in the US that kill more than 40 people. ( 74% confidence; 22 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-12.
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Donald Trump to be the next US President. ( 26% confidence; 73 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-30; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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Queen Elizabeth II will announce her abdication before 1st January 2016 ( 10% confidence; 18 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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Britain will still be part of the EU in 2016 ( 93% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-01; known on 2016-01-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16.
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There will be a manned mission to Mars by 2017 ( 7% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-29; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2017-01-16.
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There will be less than 20 deaths from Ebola in the UK by March ( 86% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-03-16; judged right by kuudes on 2015-03-07.
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There will be less than 500 deaths from Ebola in the UK by March ( 93% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-03-16; judged right by kuudes on 2015-03-07.
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There will be less than 5000 deaths from Ebola in the UK by March ( 99% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-03-16; judged right by kuudes on 2015-03-07.
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Less than 10 people will die of Ebola in Germany within the next year ( 87% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by qznc on 2014-10-21; known on 2015-10-21; judged right by Josh Holland on 2015-10-21.
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If the Earth's magnetic field reverses polarity before the confirmation of axions, the data collected during the event will provide confirmation. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2014-10-20; known on 3014-10-20.
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Virgin Galactic will send its first paying customers into a suborbital trajectory by December 31, 2014. ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by from3004 on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.
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Usain Bolt sets a new PB in the 100m. ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-18; known on 2025-01-01.
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Hillary Clinton will not become the next president of the USA ( 70% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by truerepublican on 2014-10-18; known on 2016-11-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Kim Jong-un is reported dead within 100 calendar days. ( 3% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by asd on 2014-09-28; known on 2015-01-06; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-06.
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NO will win the Scottish Referendum by 5% ±3% ( 68% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by thostian on 2014-09-16; known on 2014-09-14; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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Australia will see its first domestic, large scale “terror” attack within six months of becoming involved in the ISIS campaign. ( 17% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Mike on 2014-09-15; known on 2015-03-31; judged wrong by Mike on 2015-03-31.
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Ebola outbreak kills more than 30000 people by the end of the year ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by phreeza on 2014-09-15; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.
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“The [ebola] case burden could gain an additional 77,181 to 277,124 cases by the end of 2014.” – Wired ( 33% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by adbge on 2014-09-15; known on 2015-02-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-12.
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The scottish referendum vote will be >60% yes ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by scav on 2014-09-14; known on 2014-09-19; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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The scottish referendum vote will be less than 50% yes ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by scav on 2014-09-14; known on 2014-09-19; judged right by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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The Rosetta Probe's Philae lander will touch down successfully (at least 9 of its 10 scientific instruments working) on comet 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko by the end of November. ( 85% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by tdhellma on 2014-08-14; known on 2014-11-30; judged right by kuudes on 2014-11-30.
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Ebola doesn't cause more than 2500 deaths by the end of the year ( 39% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by minilodon on 2014-08-14; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by TeMPOraL on 2014-09-23.
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The NYT, WSJ, or The Economist will run an article claiming that Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 has been found (intact or not) before 2015. ( 44% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-03-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by mad on 2015-01-03.
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There will be no direct “hot”/shooting military conflict between any of the US, France, Germany, the UK, and Russia in 2014 ( 94% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Benquo on 2014-03-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-01-02.
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Scotland votes 'yes' for independence. ( 38% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-31; known on 2014-09-19; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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Government shutdown to end by October 25 ( 71% confidence; 21 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-10-01; known on 2013-10-25; judged right by nshepperd on 2013-10-17.
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Angela Merkel will serve another term as chancellor of Germany ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by phreeza on 2013-09-23; known on 2013-10-23; judged right by phreeza on 2013-12-31.
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The next german ruling coalition will be a grand coalition between CDU and SPD ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by phreeza on 2013-09-23; known on 2013-10-23; judged right by phreeza on 2013-12-31.
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US to launch strikes on Syria by September 21, 2013 ( 23% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-08-31; known on 2013-09-21; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-09-21.
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Ubuntu Edge will raise 32 million dollar on IndieGoGo ( 22% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2013-07-23; known on 2013-08-21; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-08-22.
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Elon Musk's Hyperloop will consist of vehicles travelling in a tunnel or enclosed tube ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by phreeza on 2013-07-16; known on 2013-08-13; judged right by phreeza on 2013-08-12.
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Elon Musk's Hyperloop will be some variation of a Lofstrom loop ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by phreeza on 2013-07-16; known on 2013-08-13; judged wrong by phreeza on 2013-08-12.
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No confirmed sightings of Snowden in Moscow in the next month ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by phreeza on 2013-07-12; known on 2013-08-12; judged wrong by phreeza on 2013-07-12.
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Snowden turns himself in to US authorities before 2016 ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by phreeza on 2013-07-02; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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Morsi will be out of power by December 1, 2013 ( 66% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-07-01; known on 2013-12-01; judged right by phreeza on 2013-07-04.
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Snowden arrested by US authorities before 2014 ( 24% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2013-06-23; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-12-31.
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A 'human organ' grown in a non-human animal will be successfully transplanted into a human within 1 year. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-06-22; known on 2014-06-22; judged wrong by phreeza on 2014-07-29.
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German Minister of Defence will resign before the election ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2013-05-22; known on 2013-09-30; judged wrong by phreeza on 2013-09-23.
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Kickstarter will ban at least one high profile DYI synthetic organism project by 2015 ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by phreeza on 2015-01-08.
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Bitcoin was created by a group of programmers who called themselves “Satoshi Nakomoto” and were not employed by a state or a corporation for the express purpose of making Bitcoin ( 19% confidence; 19 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-05-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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An NFL player will come out as gay before start of the NFL 2013 regular season ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-02; known on 2013-09-05; judged wrong by phreeza on 2013-09-09.
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AfD will stay under 5% at the German federal elections ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by dhoe on 2013-04-16; known on 2013-09-30; judged right by phreeza on 2013-09-23.
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Facebook front page will have less than 10% market share of Android phones by Jan 1 2014 ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-06; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by phreeza on 2014-03-13.
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The Euro will not be dead by 2016 ( 94% confidence; 29 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by challquist on 2013-04-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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Bitcoin will hit the $30 mark (currently $100) sometime in the next 2 months. ( 30% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-04-01; known on 2013-07-01; judged wrong by phreeza on 2013-07-02.
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One of Italy/Spain/Portugal/Germany will leave the EU before 2023 ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-03-23; known on 2023-01-01.
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Cyprus will leave the EU before 2017 ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-03-23; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Google will reveal a unified chat service (aka Babble) at I/O 2013 ( 80% confidence )
Created by phreeza on 2013-03-21; known on 2013-05-17; judged right by phreeza on 2013-05-16.
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Cyprus will leave the Euro in 2013 ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by phreeza on 2013-03-21; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by hedges on 2013-12-31.
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Cyprus will leave the EU before 2014 ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dhoe on 2013-03-20; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-12-31.
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UFO ET ORBITS MONDAY ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-03-19; known on 2013-03-25; judged wrong by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-03.
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The price of bitcoins on MtGox meets or exceeds $65 within the next 30 days. ( 56% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by tedks on 2013-03-19; known on 2013-04-18; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-03-21.
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Italy's President (Napolitano) will resign before May 2013 ( 27% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-03-15; known on 2013-05-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-04-22.
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The Veronica Mars movie campaign on Kickstarter will reach $5 million. ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by alecbrooks on 2013-03-14; known on 2013-04-12; judged right by phreeza on 2013-04-12.
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Detection of free oxygen on an exoplanet by end of the year. ( 17% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-03-12; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by phreeza on 2014-01-01.
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Barack Obama will be assassinated in 2013 ( 1% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-01-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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Berlusconi will be Italy's next premier ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2012-12-10; known on 2013-04-01; judged wrong by phreeza on 2013-04-01.
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One important result in whole brain emulation ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by tsathoggua on 2012-12-09; known on 2013-04-01; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2013-04-01.
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Silk Road will be closed by July 1st, 2013 —BetsofBitcoin ( 19% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-25; known on 2013-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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Apple will begin to sell a third tablet-style device in addition to the iPad and iPod touch/iPhone lines. This device will not have the same screen resolution (excluding factors of 2) as one of the other devices. ( 12% confidence; 7 wagers; 25 comments )
Created by quicklystarfish on 2012-04-09; known on 2013-04-09; judged wrong by phreeza on 2013-04-09.
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'Complete organ replacements grown from stem cells' in 2020 ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.