Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 75% | 100% | 59% | 50% | 80% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 8 | 5 | 22 | 8 | 15 | 1 | 59 |
Displaying all predictions made by kadavy. Filter by:
-
I will not use an Apple Vision Plus (or comparable Apple VR/AR product) more than two hours per day. ( 90% confidence )
Created by kadavy on 2023-06-06; known on 2028-06-01.
-
Khe Hy's friend will not write 45 minutes 4x a week for 3 months. ( 90% confidence )
Created by kadavy on 2023-06-01; known on 2023-09-01.
-
I will reach 200,000 lifetime book sales by May 2025 (currently 104k) ( 50% confidence )
Created by kadavy on 2023-04-26; known on 2025-05-01.
-
I will reach 200,000 lifetime book sales by May 2024 (currently 104k) ( 10% confidence )
Created by kadavy on 2023-04-26; known on 2024-05-01.
-
My long tweet about making predictions will get 2,000–10,000 impressions in the first 48 hours (without a self RT) ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by kadavy on 2023-04-06; known on 2023-04-08; judged wrong by kadavy on 2023-04-09.
-
I will sell 500–900 copies during MMT's official five-day BookBub Featured Deal period (provided I spend less than $800 in supplemental ads) ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kadavy on 2023-03-29; known on 2023-04-05; judged wrong by kadavy on 2023-04-07.
-
I will shoot 85 or under tomorrow ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kadavy on 2023-02-22; known on 2023-02-23; judged wrong by kadavy on 2023-02-23.
-
I will have published at least four new reels for TikTok or comparable platform in the fourth quarter of 2023 ( 30% confidence )
Created by kadavy on 2023-01-27; known on 2024-01-01.
-
I will have at least 1,000 TikTok followers by the end of 2023 ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kadavy on 2023-01-27; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by kadavy on 2023-08-15.
-
Created by kadavy on 2023-01-27; known on 2024-01-01.
-
I will sell between 400 and 800 copies of 100 Word Writing Habit by the end of April. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kadavy on 2023-01-24; known on 2023-05-01; judged wrong by kadavy on 2023-05-01.
-
My two video podcast essays for January will average more than 37 YouTube views, by the end of February ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kadavy on 2022-12-30; known on 2023-03-01; judged right by kadavy on 2023-03-01.
-
Twitter will be online on the 15th of December 2022. On that date, I will be able to post a tweet and other people will be able to see it. ( 89% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2022-11-18; known on 2022-12-15; judged right by danielfilan on 2022-12-15.
-
I will not go to the 20 Books to 50k conference in Vegas again in 2023 ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kadavy on 2022-10-21; known on 2023-12-01.
-
I will not regret going to the 20 Books to 50k conference in Vegas ( 70% confidence )
Created by kadavy on 2022-10-21; known on 2022-11-19; judged right by kadavy on 2022-11-20.
-
Mind Management, Not Time Management will cross the 25,000-copies-sold threshold by the end of 2022. ( 70% confidence )
Created by kadavy on 2022-10-21; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by kadavy on 2023-01-01.
-
Mind Management, Not Time Management will cross the 20,000-copies-sold threshold in (not “by”) my September 2022 income report. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kadavy on 2022-08-24; known on 2022-10-15; judged wrong by kadavy on 2022-09-02.
-
Mind Management, Not Time Management will cross the 20,000-copies-sold threshold in my August 2022 income report. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kadavy on 2022-08-24; known on 2022-09-15; judged right by kadavy on 2022-09-02.
-
Mind Management, Not Time Management will cross the 20,000-copies-sold threshold by the end of July 2022. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kadavy on 2022-06-24; known on 2022-08-01; judged wrong by kadavy on 2022-08-01.
-
I'll sell at least 3,000 copies of the Mind Management, Not Time Management ebook during its BookBub Featured Deal (July 24th–30th) ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kadavy on 2022-06-24; known on 2022-08-01; judged wrong by kadavy on 2022-08-01.
-
I'll sell at least 2,500 copies of the Mind Management, Not Time Management ebook during its BookBub Featured Deal (July 24th–30th) ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by kadavy on 2022-06-24; known on 2022-08-01; judged wrong by kadavy on 2022-08-01.
-
I'll sell at least 2,000 copies of the Mind Management, Not Time Management ebook during its BookBub Featured Deal (July 24th–30th) ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kadavy on 2022-06-24; known on 2022-08-01; judged wrong by kadavy on 2022-08-01.
-
The Mind Management, Not Time Management Chirp audiobook will earn $200 in revenue through Findaway Voices the month of the HTS discount. ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by kadavy on 2022-05-27; known on 2022-08-01; judged right by kadavy on 2022-08-01.
-
I will cross the 15,000 copies-sold mark for Mind Management, Not Time Management by the end of May 2022 ( 70% confidence )
Created by kadavy on 2022-03-15; known on 2022-06-01; judged right by kadavy on 2022-05-05.
-
I will reach 100,000 lifetime book sales within 2 years (Currently 70,000) ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kadavy on 2022-02-19; known on 2024-02-19; judged right by kadavy on 2023-04-06.
-
Will we be able to upload our consciousness to the cloud by the year 3000? ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by kadavy on 2021-03-29; known on 3000-01-01.
-
A Fortune 500 company (besides Tesla) within the next 3 months will announce they have bought Bitcoin ( 37% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kadavy on 2021-03-01; known on 2021-06-01; judged wrong by kadavy on 2021-06-01.