Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 100% | 50% | 100% | 0% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
Displaying all predictions made by rationalnoodles. Filter by:
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Difference in average math score on SAT for males and females in 2016 will be less or equal than 10 points. Background: http://freakonomics.com/podcast/gender-barriers/ ( 40% confidence )
Created by rationalnoodles on 2016-07-23; known on 2017-01-01.
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Less than 300 people will die of Ebola within the fifty United States by January 1, 2018 —Bryan Caplan ( 88% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2014-10-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by bendini on 2017-11-20.
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Prediction. ( 80% confidence )
Created by rationalnoodles on 2014-09-09; known on 2014-09-30.
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An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100. ( 57% confidence; 18 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by nshepperd on 2014-09-08; known on 2100-01-01.
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RUB/USD will reach 38/1 (according to CBR) at least once before 2015. ( 70% confidence )
Created by rationalnoodles on 2014-08-29; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by rationalnoodles on 2014-09-16.
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RUB/USD will reach 39/1 (according to CBR) at least once before 2015. ( 40% confidence )
Created by rationalnoodles on 2014-08-29; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by rationalnoodles on 2014-09-29.
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I will come to Moscow LW Meetup on 2014-08-31. ( 50% confidence )
Created by rationalnoodles on 2014-08-29; known on 2014-08-31; judged right by rationalnoodles on 2014-08-31.
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My classmates will be even cooler IRL. ( 60% confidence )
Created by rationalnoodles on 2014-08-23; known on 2014-09-09; judged right by rationalnoodles on 2014-09-28.
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Russia will close its borders by 2016 ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by rationalnoodles on 2014-08-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-23.
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Kingdom of Westeros to be dissolved by the end of the TV-series (No house rules more than 4 regions) ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by BiasedCalibration on 2014-05-24; known on 2019-07-16; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2019-05-21.