PredictionBook transitioning to read-only mode at the end of 2023 ( read more ).

You – yes, you – do not actually possess a rudimentary self-consistent model of either rationality, yourself or the world around you that you consistently re-adjust using the feedback from this tool.

Created by reallyyesreally on 2014-12-03; known on 2015-07-02

  • reallyyesreally estimated 80% on 2014-12-03
  • reallyyesreally said “P.S. if you consistently make predictions of the sort that goes “there’s an X% chance that I will/not do Y”… then change that estimate to 100%.on 2014-12-03
  • sweeneyrod said “How would you judge this?on 2014-12-03
  • Osuniev estimated 60% and said “Probably not consistently, but I do try to re-adjuston 2014-12-03
  • sweeneyrod estimated 30% and said “Currently, my total deviation in estimates is 54%. (As in the sum of the differences between each confidence and its corresponding accuracy). By the date of this prediction, I expect it to be below 30.on 2014-12-03
  • reallyyesreally said “Osuniev: And so… having acknowledged that… your course of action is to click a few buttons and forget about it? on 2014-12-05
  • reallyyesreally said “sweeneyrod: So you measure your level of rationality by an arbitrary number you found online that’s indirectly based on a series of irregular messages that you’ve self-selected to be posted here? That’s so rational! on 2014-12-05
  • sweeneyrod said “reallyyesreally – no, as I don’t consider rationality to be a single factor. However, I think that the ability to make accurate predictions is quite useful, and PredictionBook helps with that. Do you disagree with that?on 2014-12-05
  • reallyyesreally said “Yes, I do. on 2014-12-07
  • sweeneyrod said “Which part of it specifically? That accurate predictions are useful, or that PredictionBook helps that, or an unspoken assumption?on 2014-12-08
  • reallyyesreally said “> that PredictionBook helps thaton 2014-12-09
  • JoshuaZ said “So why don’t you think that having regular feedback that forces you to look at how correctly confident you are on a belief wouldn’t help? on 2014-12-09
  • reallyyesreally said “Because as far as I see you use that ‘feedback’ to decrease or increase your future ‘confidence level’ to make it reflect your (poor) beliefs, rather than to update the beliefs themselves.on 2014-12-09
  • JoshuaZ said “What do you mean?If one keeps predicting incorrect statements then one will have to change one’s model. If one but reduces confidence that reflects a weakening in trust in one’s model.Do you have an example of a belief I should give up? on 2014-12-09
  • reallyyesreally said “Yes, “This site has helped me solve a tangible problem in my life”on 2014-12-09
  • JoshuaZ said “How about something less meta. Do you have an example of a belief that is connected to a set of predictions I have made where the failure of those predictions should have caused me to adjust my beliefs in a way that I have not? on 2014-12-10
  • reallyyesreally said “Hmm, that’s no fun. And seeing as you predicted how often some guy will masturbate this year, uh.. don’t mind if I’m not going to delve into your prediction history again. How would you judge my initial ‘meta’ question?on 2014-12-10
  • reallyyesreally said “I guess you forfeited the debate in the other thread. Oh Well. on 2014-12-10
  • reallyyesreally withdrew the prediction on 2014-12-10

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