Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 46% | 59% | 67% | 73% | 88% | 98% | |
Sample Size | 69 | 86 | 89 | 90 | 183 | 80 | 597 |
Displaying all predictions made by Anubhav. Filter by:
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I will unsubscribe from Erfworld. ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-27; known on 2012-07-27; judged right by gwern on 2012-06-26.
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Eliezer will have replied to my PM by tomorrow morning. The reply will be a go-ahead. ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-27; known on 2012-01-28; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-28.
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Eliezer will reply to my PM in the next 2 days. The reply will be a go-ahead. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-27; known on 2012-01-29; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-28.
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Less Wrong will have a “limited-access forum” before 2013. ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-26; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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“Reduce term of copyrights to a maximum of 56 years” petition will reach 25k signatures by the deadline. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-26; known on 2012-02-20; judged wrong by ahartell on 2012-02-20.
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“Submit ACTA to Senate” petition will reach 25k signatures by the end of this month. ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-26; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-02-02.
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PredictionBook will display users' Brier scores by the end of this year. ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-25; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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I will ask out the person I currently have a crush on. They will say no. ( 65% confidence; 11 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by Leo on 2012-01-25; known on 2012-02-09; judged right by Leo on 2012-01-30.
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I will read and complete every exercise within Learn Ruby the Hard Way before July 2012. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-25; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03.
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The Japanese Language pack install will be successful. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-25; known on 2012-01-25; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-25.
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My PC will realise Japanese isn't an installed language after I run CCleaner's registry cleanup. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-25; known on 2012-01-25; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-25.
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End Acta petition to the White house will have 25k signatures in 2 weeks. ( 99% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-24; known on 2012-02-07; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-25.
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End Acta petition to the White House will have 25k signatures by Monday. ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-24; known on 2012-01-30; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-25.
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“Space elevators will make space travel cheap and easy” —Ahdok; BBC ( 34% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.
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“There will only be three languages in the world – English, Spanish and Mandarin” —Bill Walker, BBC ( 2% confidence; 34 wagers; 24 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.
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Federal investigation of Chris Dodd and/or the MPAA for bribery before the end of this year. ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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Will have college tomorrow. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-23; known on 2012-01-24; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-24.
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Libya will have a lower HDI next time it is assessed ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by modulus on 2012-01-23; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021. ( 13% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Before the end of the year, PredictionBook will offer weighted averages for the community confidence in a prediction, and/or offer an API for others to do so. ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2012-01-20; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2013-01-01.
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I will be allowed to take the internal exams. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-18; known on 2012-03-15; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-03-15.
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I will not consider any of the next four chapters of HPMR to be as good as chapter 74. ( 64% confidence; 6 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-29; known on 2012-03-15; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-03-12.
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HonoreDB's 'universally correct method' is a mathematical construct. ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-16; known on 2012-01-20; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-18.
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In the next three days, somebody will post an idea on http://lesswrong.com/r/lesswrong/lw/9eo/a_call_for_solutions_and_a_tease_of_mine/ that I find novel and intriguing. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by HonoreDB on 2012-01-16; known on 2012-01-19; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-01-18.
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Nobody will independently recreate my idea in response to http://lesswrong.com/r/lesswrong/lw/9eo/a_call_for_solutions_and_a_tease_of_mine/. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2012-01-16; known on 2012-01-19; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-01-18.
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A human neural connectome will have been mapped by 2092 —Charles Stross ( 93% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
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Cultured mammalian meat cheaper than and as tasty as real meat by 2092 —Charles Stross ( 72% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
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I will drop out of college. ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-13; known on 2014-03-31; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2014-03-31.
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The future of the Euro: “Euro survives”. ( 77% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by siscoking on 2012-01-07; known on 2014-01-16; judged right by ygert on 2014-02-02.
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I will tinker with PredictionBook's source code before April 1 and manage to add a new feature. ( 6% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-13; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-03-30.
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I will successfully complete an internet programming job (PHP/Rails/something like that) on oDesk and be paid for it before May 1. ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-13; known on 2012-05-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-05-01.
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Will submit my database case study before the deadline. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-13; known on 2012-01-17; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-23.
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I will buy a car before graduating college. ( 4% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-12; known on 2014-05-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2014-05-01.
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Google Search will be inaccessible to US visitors for at least 4 hours due to a “blackout” protesting pending legislation, before 2013 ( 5% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
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World will not end or be radically transformed in accordance with apocalyptic expectations of any major world religion (as they are understood prior to the events of 2012). ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by smijer on 2012-01-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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Iran will not be invaded or attacked this year ( 76% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by modulus on 2012-01-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by modulus on 2013-01-01.
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3rd Test Australia v India at Perth: India Wins ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Akshay Rawat on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-01-17; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-30.
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GJP: #1055 Will North Korea successfully detonate a nuclear weapon, either atmospherically, underground, or underwater, between 9 January 2012 and 1 April 2012? ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-04-01.
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GJP: #1059 Will Kim Jong-un attend an official, in-person meeting with any G8 head of government* before 1 April 2012? ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-04-01.
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No elected government will hold power in Egypt in 2012 ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by _W_ on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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I have heard 'raging waves' before. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-01-09; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-09.
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First chapter of a fic stemming from my satire of John Galt's prediction is published by April 1. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-04-01.
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“9. Facebook hits 1 billion users” —Brian Breslin ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-08; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Tomorrow morning, I will have negative karma on LessWrong. ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-08; known on 2012-01-09; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-09.
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Copyright is challenged in a US court as unconstitutional before 2013. The case is not dismissed without hearing. ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-08; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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Copyright is challenged in a US court as unconstitutional before 2016. The case is not dismissed without hearing. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-07.
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Copyright ruled unconstitutional by a US court before 2016. ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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Googling 'real websites' will throw up at least one amusing hit or autocomplete. (only first-page hits count) ( 20% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-08; known on 2012-01-08; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-08.
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Googling 'real websites' will throw up at least one bizarre hit or autocomplete. (only first-page hits count) ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-08; known on 2012-01-08; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-08.
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0fyO6ypVYI This super-awesome YouTube video will be taken down by the end of the year. ( 14% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-01-08; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by Grognor on 2012-06-14.
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The bitcoin protocol will have a fatal weakness that is discovered, leading to the crash of the bitcoin economy. End of year prediction. ( 3% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by kiba on 2012-01-07; known on 2012-12-30; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-31.
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Yoshimoto Banana will win a Nobel Prize for Literature. ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-07; known on 2046-01-01.
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Won't have broadband tomorrow morning. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-07; known on 2012-01-08; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-08.
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Will try out Trello today. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-07; known on 2012-01-08; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-07.
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Will have changed Windows' display language to Japanese by next Sunday. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-07; known on 2012-01-15; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-15.
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Reading my classmates’ public argument on Facebook will amuse me greatly ( 20% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-07; known on 2012-01-07; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-07.
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Reading my classmates' public argument on Facebook will amuse me moderately. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-07; known on 2012-01-07; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-07.
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Stats assignment for today will include χ^2 or student's-t distributions. ( 10% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-07; known on 2012-01-07; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-07.
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Electronics project due Wednesday. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-07; known on 2012-01-07; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-07.
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Riemann's Hypothesis and Goldbach's Conjecture will be resolved before a proof is found of whether White wins or ties chess. —Doron Zeilberger ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-06; known on 2112-01-06.
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I will regret not attending the IAI President's speech. ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-01-30; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-29.
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Someone from the IAI will ring me up on the day of the President's speech. The call will be regarding my non-attendance. ( 20% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-01-09; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-08.
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'Ame Nochi Kumochi Nochi Hare' was the theme song of one of the 'Aa Megamisama' animes/OVAs. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-01-06; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.
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I will have stopped wasting time on Omegle by 2:30. (It's 1:25 now.) ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-01-06; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.
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Bitcoin >$9000 by February. ( 0% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.
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Ballmer will step down as MS CEO and be replaced by Eric Schmidt —Cringely ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-05; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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“Facebook will back into an IPO by buying Yahoo” —Mr Windows ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-05; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-02.
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“No IPO for Facebook” —Cringely ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-05; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-02.
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I will continue wasting time on Omegle until 8 PM. (It's 5 PM now.) ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-05; known on 2012-01-05; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-05.
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The Church of Kopimism will have over 20k members by 2013. Prediction will be withdrawn if membership stats aren't available. ( 57% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.
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General AI will not be built by 2013 ( 97% confidence; 19 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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Taniguchi (from Haruhi) is written valley-mouth. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-04; known on 2012-01-04; judged right by faws on 2012-01-04.
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Kunikida (from Haruhi) is written country-tree-field. ( 20% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-04; known on 2012-01-04; judged right by faws on 2012-01-04.
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I have heard Life before. ( 20% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-03; known on 2012-01-03; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-03.
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Adding the Mecab folder to the PATH variable will make 'mecab -O wakati input.txt -o output.txt' work. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-03; known on 2012-01-03.
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'Kimi ni aeta Yokatta' is from one of the Slayers series. ( 30% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-03; known on 2012-01-03; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-03.
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'Sakura saku' is the first Love Hina OP. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-03; known on 2012-01-03; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-03.
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No contact with intelligent aliens be made in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 31 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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Share will download one of the files I'm looking for tomorrow. ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-04; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-03.
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I will read at least 15 novels of the Maria-sama ga Miteru series in the next 2 years. ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2014-01-05.
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I will be defrauded, stolen from, robbed, burgled, or assaulted during my stay in Mexico City. ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-17.
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I will be murdered during my stay in Mexico City. ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-17.
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LessWrong: By 2013, date last edited shows up next to comments that have been edited. (Would foil this evil plan, for instance. http://bit.ly/w0lkyQ ) ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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Will have changed Windows' display language to Japanese by Sunday. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-08; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-07.
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送る is pronounced そうる ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-02; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-02.
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切り取り is pronounced きりとり ( 70% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-02; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-02.
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完全 is pronounced かんぜん ( 80% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-02; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-02.
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最近 is pronounced さいきん ( 90% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-02; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-02.
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Will have completed the maths FAC for ACET by Saturday. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-07; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.
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The winner of the 2012 US presidential election will have been the candidate that spent more money on the campaign than any other individual candidate. ( 80% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-01-03.
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Copying the ja-jp registry key from my laptop to my PC and deleting the en-us key will change my PC's display language to Japanese. ( 10% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-02; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-02.
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Manual install will work on my laptop. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-02; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-02.
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Manual install will work on my PC. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-02; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-02.
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Fix 50528 fixed the problem. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-02; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-02.
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If Obama is re-elected, then a white male will go on a “shooting spree” and the shooter will mention the “political climate” as a motivating factor. If the antecedent proposition is false, then this prediction will be withdrawn. ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-01-03.
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Repairing .NET client profile will fix the error. ( 10% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-02; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-02.
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Trying to install the Japanese language pack produces an error (again). ( 70% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-02; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-02.
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“There will be a major war, starting in the Middle East. Israel will lose (75%). China will probably join in on the radical-Muslim side. Iran will try to use its nukes but they will be duds. Israel will not use theirs…” —jdgalt ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-01-01.
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Will change Windows' display language to Japanese today. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-03; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-02.
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At least three papers with the word “connectomics” in their title or abstract will be published in Nature in 2012. ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Porejide on 2013-01-02.