Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 33% | 50% | 57% | 59% | 90% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 21 | 26 | 37 | 22 | 50 | 9 | 165 |
Displaying all predictions made by D0TheMath. Filter by:
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Israel and Egypt at war by 2022 ( 21% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-16; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-01.
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Omicron will be the majority strain in the US by the end of January ( 95% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2021-12-07; known on 2022-02-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2022-02-01.
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Conditional on winning the primary, Andrew Yang wins the NYC mayoral election. ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-11-02.
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GME will reach $1000 at some point before 1 March 2021. ( 13% confidence; 22 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by galaga on 2021-01-29; known on 2021-03-01; judged wrong by galaga on 2021-03-01.
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CA Gov Gavin Newsom will have a recall effort reach the signature threshold needed for certification before March 31, 2022 ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-21; known on 2021-04-15; judged right by D0TheMath on 2021-05-25.
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[Most people in England will be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places before] 2021-05-19 ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2021-08-01; judged right by stepan on 2021-09-12.
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[Most people in England will be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places before] 2021-04-10 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2021-08-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-09-12.
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[Most people in England will be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places before] 2021-03-26 ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2021-08-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-09-12.
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[Most people in England will be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places before] 2021-03-13 ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2021-08-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-09-12.
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[Most people in England will be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places before] 2021-03-03 ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2021-08-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-09-12.
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[People in England will be able to meet socially in a group of six or more in public outdoor places before] 2021-04-25 ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2021-04-25; judged right by D0TheMath on 2021-05-25.
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[People in England will be able to meet socially in a group of six or more in public outdoor places before] 2021-03-26 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2021-04-25; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-05-25.
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[People in England will be able to meet socially in a group of six or more in public outdoor places before] 2021-03-13 ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2021-04-25; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-05-25.
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[People in England will be able to meet socially in a group of six or more in public outdoor places before] 2021-03-04 ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2021-04-25; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-05-25.
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[People in England will be able to meet socially in a group of six or more in public outdoor places before] 2021-02-12 ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2021-04-25; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-05-25.
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An EA aligned organization will become the target of directed government repression in the US, UK, or an EU country by 2040 ( 10% confidence )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2040-01-01.
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An EA aligned organization will become the target of directed government repression by 2040 ( 85% confidence )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2040-01-01.
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An EA aligned organization will become the target of directed government repression by 2040 ( 85% confidence )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2031-01-01.
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If all EA community building Slack Workspaces are replaced with Mattermost instances, user participation in those spaces will drop by more than 5% ( 60% confidence )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2031-01-01.
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Internal communications of an EA organisation be part of a data leak by 2040 ( 80% confidence )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2040-01-01.
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Trump will start a TV show before 2025. ( 36% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2025-01-01.
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[The next interstellar object will be discovered] before 2031 ( 95% confidence )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2031-01-01.
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[The next interstellar object will be discovered] before 2024 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2031-01-01.
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[The next interstellar object will be discovered] before 2023 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2031-01-01.
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[The next interstellar object will be discovered] before 2022 ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2031-01-01.
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EA Global London will be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again. ( 40% confidence )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2021-11-02; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-12-17.
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There will be a Second US civil war before 2031 ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2031-01-02.
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No Trump family indictments in 2021 ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2022-01-30; judged right by D0TheMath on 2022-01-30.
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[Biden Executive Order Frequency in First Term (orders/week)] <.973 ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2025-01-31.
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[Biden Executive Order Frequency in First Term (orders/week)] <.910 ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2025-01-31.
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[Biden Executive Order Frequency in First Term (orders/week)] <.773 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2025-01-31.
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[Biden Executive Order Frequency in First Term (orders/week)] <.650 ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2025-01-31.
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[Biden Executive Order Frequency in First Term (orders/week)] < .608 ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2025-01-31.
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[2025 Price of a Crunchwrap Supreme ] > $6.1 ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2025-01-01.
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[2025 Price of a Crunchwrap Supreme ] <= $6.1 ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2025-01-01.
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[2025 Price of a Crunchwrap Supreme ] < $4.6 ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2025-01-01.
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2025 Price of a Crunchwrap Supreme < $4 ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2025-01-01.
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[Due to the physical violence of attendees and law enforcement at Joe Biden's Inauguration (Jan 20, 2021), there will be (within the first 48 hours) ] 7 for more deaths ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by LukeS on 2021-01-19; known on 2021-01-22; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-01-29.
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[Due to the physical violence of attendees and law enforcement at Joe Biden's Inauguration (Jan 20, 2021), there will be (within the first 48 hours) ] 3-6 deaths ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by LukeS on 2021-01-19; known on 2021-01-22; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-01-29.
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[Due to the physical violence of attendees and law enforcement at Joe Biden's Inauguration (Jan 20, 2021), there will be (within the first 48 hours) ] 1-2 deaths ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by LukeS on 2021-01-19; known on 2021-01-22; judged wrong by LukeS on 2021-01-22.
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[Due to the physical violence of attendees and law enforcement at Joe Biden's Inauguration (Jan 20, 2021), there will be (within the first 48 hours) ] 0 deaths ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by LukeS on 2021-01-19; known on 2021-01-22; judged right by LukeS on 2021-01-22.
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There will be large scale rioting in US in early 2021 ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-18; known on 2021-03-18; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-03-18.
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There will be large scale rioting in US in early 2021? ( 15% confidence )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-18; known on 2021-03-18.
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The inauguration will be peaceful ( 90% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-18; known on 2021-01-21; judged right by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20.
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Trump will attempt to pardon himself. ( 23% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-17; known on 2021-01-21; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-01-21.
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In a year, Parler 0 will still be offline 0 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parler ( 60% confidence )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-17; known on 2022-01-17; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20.
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Trump convicted by senate in 2021 ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-17; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by MultiplyByZer0 on 2021-04-02.
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Trump will not be convicted by the Senate before January 20th ( 99% confidence )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-17; known on 2021-01-21; judged right by D0TheMath on 2021-01-21.
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Joe Biden's administration will officially transition into power on schedule. ( 96% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by aspire43 on 2021-01-17; known on 2021-01-20; judged right by aspire43 on 2021-01-20.
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British variant is >30% more transmissible than preexisting variant. ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-16; known on 2021-07-16; judged right by D0TheMath on 2021-07-24.
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By July 2021, China will invade Taiwan. The invasion will take longer than anticipated and as a result China will use biological weapons. The USA and EU will do nothing. ( 4% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Random on 2021-01-11; known on 2021-07-31; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-07-31.
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Politics, US – Donald Trump attempts to issue a pardon for himself before the end of the 20th of January 2021. ( 35% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-03; known on 2021-01-21; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-01-21.
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In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB). ( 20% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-24; known on 2021-12-24; judged wrong by gwern on 2021-12-24.