Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is actually Asuka Soryu Langley in some sense ( 8% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is actually a disguised Asuka Soryu Langley ( 4% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is actually an autonomous part of Asuka Soryu Langley, with Asuka Shikinami being the other half ( 3% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is conspiring with Kaji ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is working for herself/an otherwise unknown conspiracy/group which is opposed to NERV & SEELE's plans ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 01 will be upgraded to/redesignated Eva 07 ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be piloted by Asuka ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be piloted by Touji ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be piloted by Mari ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be piloted by Rei ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be a MP-style Eva ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Shinji will die, permanently, and not transcend or continue to exist in some sense ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: the fourth wall will be broken by a character ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-29; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: the fourth wall will be broken by what is recognizably Anno ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-29; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE: 4.0 will be titled “You Can (Not) Stay Here” ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE: Shinji will masturbate to Asuka at some point during Rebuild ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2020-01-03; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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Trịnh văn ngọc 25 2100074420 Multifocal GBM Anh Khuyên: glioma/ TS ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-07-30; known on 2021-08-20; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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Personal, Productivity – I clear Anki log by deadline. ( 74% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-08-12; known on 2021-08-13; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-08-13.
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[Self] Tensing reveals my abs by July ( 3% confidence )
Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-07-01; judged wrong by meedstrom on 2021-08-12.
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[Self] I will get my Bachelor's degree by June. ( 10% confidence )
Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-09; known on 2021-06-02; judged wrong by meedstrom on 2021-08-12.
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Lund University, Sweden returns to physical classrooms by June ( 50% confidence )
Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-06-01; judged wrong by meedstrom on 2021-08-12.
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[Self] I will finish my course on rhetoric in a way that makes me proud. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-09; known on 2021-05-21; judged wrong by meedstrom on 2021-08-12.
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New York, San Francisco or Los Angeles will impose a shelter-in-place order, close businesses, or limit group sizes on or before August 9, 2021 ( 60% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-07-19; known on 2021-08-10; judged wrong by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-08-12.
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Personal, Productivity – I clear Anki backlog by deadline. ( 70% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-08-10; known on 2021-08-11; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-08-12.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics] France to win the most judo medals of any country or Olympic committee ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged wrong by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics] Japan to win the most judo medals of any country or Olympic committee ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics] China to win at least one medal in weightlifting ( 96% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics] China to win the most weightlifting medals of any country or Olympic committee ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics] North Korea to win more weightlifting medals than the USA ( 46% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged wrong by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[Fighting] UFC to hold a fight in France by 2020 EOY ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-06-25; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics] Taiwan to compete as “Chinese Taipei” ( 91% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics] Taiwan (or “Chinese Taipei”) to win at least one medal ( 89% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics] Japan to win more medals than any other country or Olympic committee ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged wrong by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics] Japan to win the most karate medals of any country or Olympic committee ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged wrong by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics] Russia to win the most wrestling medals of any country or Olympic committee ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged wrong by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics] Cuba to win more wrestling medals than the USA ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged wrong by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics] China to win more shooting medals than the USA ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics: The country/committee that wins the most boxing medals to be] a member of the former Soviet Union ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2021-08-09; judged right by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics: The country/committee that wins the most boxing medals to be] the United States ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2021-08-09; judged wrong by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics: The country/committee that wins the most boxing medals to be] Cuba ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2021-08-09; judged wrong by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[Personal] I will read at least 64 books in 2020 ( 72% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2020-01-07; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics: The country/committee that wins the most boxing medals to be] France ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2021-08-09; judged wrong by katingand on 2021-08-09.
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Lê Thị Dung 34 67364 GCT with multiple aneurysms ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-07-25; known on 2021-08-08; judged right by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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Apple will lose all its *NIX developer goodwill and become the equivalent of Microsoft — hated but a necessary evil. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by kyst on 2011-07-28; known on 2021-07-28; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-08-07.
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Personal – I get around to cleaning the oven by deadline. ( 95% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-08-06; known on 2021-08-07; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-08-07.
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Phùng Văn Vượng 31 Lymphoma/ Bệnh tủy tạo máu Leukemia ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-07-23; known on 2021-08-13; judged right by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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Personal – I finish Coursera intro by deadline. ( 95% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-08-04; known on 2021-08-05; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-08-04.
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India and China's border dispute escalates to a battle fought more than 100 km from the border ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sam_jaques on 2020-08-03; known on 2021-08-03; judged wrong by sam_jaques on 2021-08-03.
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The GAO will not uphold Blue Origin's protest of the HLS bid. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-04-27; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2021-08-03.
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Nguyễn Thị Hoa 68 Chordoma ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-07-31; known on 2021-08-03; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.