Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Complete equivalent of Y2 physics at Unimelb by eoy 2013 ( 40% confidence )
Created by waveman on 2012-12-31; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-01-01.
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Apple will reduce price of iPad Mini below $300 by 12/31/2013 ( 55% confidence; 9 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-26; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
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The US government will not have defaulted by the end of 2013. ( 96% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-15; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
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Apple will buy Twitter before end of 2013 ( 11% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-01; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
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I will successfully complete the 750 Words monthly challenge for December ( 90% confidence )
Created by atroche on 2013-12-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by atroche on 2014-01-01.
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Gold price will be up this year ( 53% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by tkosiba on 2013-04-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
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By the end of 2013, the government will have never minted a trillion dollar coin. ( 94% confidence; 27 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
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Bitcoin price on 2014-01-01: 750-1000$ (mtgox prices) ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ArisKatsaris on 2014-01-01.
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Bitcoin price on 2014-01-01: 550-749$ (mtgox prices) ( 19% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ArisKatsaris on 2014-01-01.
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“14 nanometre chips enter mass production” in 2013. ( 40% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
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North Korea will be in direct military conflict with another nation during this year. ( 15% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by hedges on 2013-04-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
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Valve announces Steam Box before 2014. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by muflax on 2012-03-06; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
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I will watch any of Homeland 3×08 – 3×12 before 2014 ( 0% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-15; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
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Between 2013-07-01 to 2013-12-31, I will type and do a majority of my typing on a SafeType or similar vertical keyboard ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
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I will speak (under any nickname) more than 50 lines total in #lesswrong, between now and 2014 ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
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Bitcoin price on 2014-01-01: 350-549$ (mtgox prices) ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ArisKatsaris on 2013-12-31.
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Bitcoin price on 2014-01-01: 1000-2000$ (mtgox prices) ( 49% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ArisKatsaris on 2013-12-31.
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Bitcoin price on 2014-01-01: > 2000$ (mtgox prices) ( 6% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ArisKatsaris on 2013-12-31.
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Bitcoin price on 2014-01-01: 150-349$ (mtgox prices) ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ArisKatsaris on 2013-12-31.
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Bitcoin price on 2014-01-01: 50-149$ (mtgox prices) ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ArisKatsaris on 2013-12-31.
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Bitcoin price on 2014-01-01: < 50$ (mtgox prices) ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ArisKatsaris on 2013-12-31.
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The population of Iowa will first vote on a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage in 2012; when they do, the vote will be a tossup. In 2013, the ban would fail. —Nate Silver ( 50% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-12-31.
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“By Dec 31, 2013 the total volume of payments denominated in Facebook Credits (or any replacement introduced by Facebook) will meet or exceed $16 billion in a three month period.” —Shamir Karkal ( 10% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-03-12; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-12-31.
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“The Chicago Spire to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-12-31.
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“The Freedom Tower to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 40% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-06; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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Scott Siskind will stil be an atheist by 2014. ( 96% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Kaj_Sotala on 2012-08-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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Tom Claburn, Info Week: Google Buys Pinterest or Etsy in 2013 ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-12-17; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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Donna Tam, news.com: Amazon smartphone in 2013 ( 27% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-12-27; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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A political motivated terrorist attack (committed with the intent to change public policy) will occur in 2013 in the United States, causing at least 3 deaths. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-01; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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“Sudan to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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“Cuba to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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By the end of 2013, the total number of predictions on predictionbook.com will exceed 15,000. ( 80% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13; known on 2013-12-30; judged right by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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“An internationally recognised Palestinian state to be established before midnight ET 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 14% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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A nuclear disaster equal to or worse than Fukushima will happen this year. ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers )
Created by hedges on 2013-04-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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cryptsy will stop all withdrawals for at least 24 hours, before 2014 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-20; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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Apple won't buy TiVo before end of 2013 ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-17; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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> 500m will use Windows 8 by end of 2013 — Steve Ballmer ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-25; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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Rossi's energy black box actually harnesses a third type of nuclear reaction ( 4% confidence; 10 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-30; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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Amazon won't launch it's own smart phone by end of 2013 ( 70% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-07; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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The US will be at war with Iran by 2014 ( 18% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Isaac on 2011-12-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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Facebook will buy Evernote before end of 2013 ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-05; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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Neither US nor Russian governments will make announcements claiming the existence of sentient aliens this year. http://www.eutimes.net/2013/01/russia-orders-obama-tell-world-about-aliens-or-we-will/ ( 98% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-01-27; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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The Overdue Predictions page on PredictionBook will be modified to not display withdrawn or changed to private (by someone else) predictions by 2014. ( 36% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2013-08-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-01-01.
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HP MoR: 'I bet Quirrel will die fighting Voldemort to protect Harry before chapter 100' —shminux ( 3% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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Mencius Moldbug: Bitcoin <10 cents by end of 2013. ( 7% confidence; 26 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-01-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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Spam comments will routinely outnumber real comments/votes on Predictionbook.com by 2014 ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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Bitcoin will be exchanged at a rate higher than $20/BTC at the end of 2013. ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by ChristianKl on 2012-11-29; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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My LessWrong karma will be over 1000 at the end of 2013 ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ChristianKl on 2012-11-29; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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Barack Obama will be assassinated in 2013 ( 1% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-01-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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By 2014, Iran will have detonated a nuclear bomb. ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.