Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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I will make daily predictions until at least the end of May. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by cobalt on 2014-05-05; known on 2014-05-31; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2014-05-16.
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Mom will say Happy is a 5/5 song when I ask ( 90% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-05-16; known on 2014-05-16; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-05-16.
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Oklahoma City Thunder will win their 2nd round series against the Los Angeles Clippers (2014). ( 56% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-05; known on 2014-05-19; judged right by avipacker on 2014-05-16.
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Indiana Pacers will win their 2nd round series against the Washington Wizards (2014). ( 65% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-05; known on 2014-05-19; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2014-05-16.
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Wayne Hsiung will refuse to bet against the claim that attitudes to in vitro meat will change after such meat becomes commercially available. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Pablo on 2014-05-14; known on 2014-05-17; judged right by Pablo on 2014-05-15.
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I will have 3 perfect days in a row on HabitRPG, starting today. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by prototrout on 2014-05-14; known on 2014-05-17; judged wrong by prototrout on 2014-05-15.
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I will get accepted to App Academy before 2015. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-04-21; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-05-15.
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The San Antonio Spurs will win their 2nd round series against the Portland Trailblazers. ( 84% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-05; known on 2014-05-20; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2014-05-15.
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The Boston Bruins will win their 2nd round series against the Montreal Canadiens (2014). ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-05; known on 2014-05-15; judged wrong by avipacker on 2014-05-15.
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The Miami Heat will win their 2nd round series against the Brooklyn Nets (2014). ( 89% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-05; known on 2014-05-19; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2014-05-15.
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The Chicago Blackhawks will win their 2nd round series against the Minnesota Wild (2014). ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-05; known on 2014-05-16; judged right by avipacker on 2014-05-14.
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I will get an 'A' or better in PHI 313: Probability, Evidence, and Decision. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-15; known on 2014-06-02; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-05-14.
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I will have learned “a new thing” about my food problem by the end of May, as determined by an impartial judge when I explain how the month has gone. ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by etarletons on 2014-05-08; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by etarletons on 2014-05-12.
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I will write a > 100 line Python program or modify > 100 same-program lines of Python in 2014 ( 93% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-15; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-05-12.
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Grandma will give me money when I go to her house today ( 50% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-05-11; known on 2014-05-12; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-05-12.
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I will agree with my mother about my brother's actions in the story he's about to tell me not being weird ( 80% confidence )
Created by mad on 2014-05-12; known on 2014-05-12; judged right by mad on 2014-05-12.
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I will watch one or more episodes of Game of Thrones Season 4 before 2015 ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-25; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-05-12.
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I will continue to drink an espresso a day by the end of April. ( 80% confidence )
Created by from3004 on 2014-04-16; known on 2014-05-01; judged wrong by from3004 on 2014-05-11.
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Nicholas Wade will still be employed by the New York Times in a year. ( 40% confidence; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-04-30; known on 2015-04-30; judged right by Afforess on 2015-10-09.
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Nicholas Wade will still be employed by the New York Times in a year. ( 40% confidence; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-04-30; known on 2015-04-30; judged right by Afforess on 2015-10-09.
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There will be at least one Diet Coke in the fridge when I open it. ( 30% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-05-11; known on 2014-05-11; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2014-05-11.
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I will be asked out by a girl before the end of the Spring 2014 semester. ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-09; known on 2014-05-10; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-05-10.
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Today, I will successfully 3×5 squat 225lbs. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2014-05-09; known on 2014-05-09; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2014-05-09.
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Tasha Fox will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brains tribe, accountant) ( 10% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-05-09.
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All TPS reports are delivered by 3 PM Thursday. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-07; known on 2014-05-08; judged wrong by avipacker on 2014-05-08.
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OKC beats LA Clippers in Game 2. ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-07; known on 2014-05-08; judged right by avipacker on 2014-05-08.
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Vidal Nuno will pitch at least 5 innings. ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-08; known on 2014-05-09; judged right by avipacker on 2014-05-08.
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Yankees will score more than 3 runs. ( 57% confidence )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-08; known on 2014-05-09; judged right by avipacker on 2014-05-08.
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John Ryan Murphy gets a hit tonight. ( 45% confidence )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-08; known on 2014-05-09; judged right by avipacker on 2014-05-08.
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Yankees hit a home run (5/7) ( 66% confidence )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-08; known on 2014-05-09; judged right by avipacker on 2014-05-08.
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My family does not get the creek house ( 40% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-05-05; known on 2014-08-16; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-05-08.
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The creek house we want will not go for a price under 200 (or 20, I forget the magnitude. The point is that Mom won't get her -1 or 2 significant digit she wants.) ( 30% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-05-05; known on 2014-08-16; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-05-08.
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Yankees score more than 2 runs in the 1st inning. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-08; known on 2014-05-08; judged right by avipacker on 2014-05-08.
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Yankees score in 1st inning. ( 92% confidence )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-08; known on 2014-05-08; judged right by avipacker on 2014-05-08.
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Penguins win Game 4 vs Rangers. ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-08; known on 2014-05-09; judged right by avipacker on 2014-05-08.
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Indiana Pacers beat Washington Wizards in Game 2. ( 79% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-07; known on 2014-05-08; judged right by avipacker on 2014-05-08.
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My math teacher will ask me to do something for Friday. ( 92% confidence )
Created by cobalt on 2014-05-07; known on 2014-05-07; judged wrong by cobalt on 2014-05-07.
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MIRI will not win the $250K prize from SVGives ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2014-05-07; known on 2014-05-07; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2014-05-07.
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Hiroki Kuroda pitches less than 6 innings against the Angels. ( 20% confidence )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-06; known on 2014-05-07; judged wrong by avipacker on 2014-05-07.
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Dave Robertson pitches tonight. ( 30% confidence )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-06; known on 2014-05-07; judged right by avipacker on 2014-05-07.
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The Spurs and Trailblazers combine to score more than 180 points in Game 1. ( 92% confidence )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-06; known on 2014-05-07; judged right by avipacker on 2014-05-07.
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The Spurs and Trailblazers combine to score more than 220 points in Game 1. ( 33% confidence )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-06; known on 2014-05-07; judged wrong by avipacker on 2014-05-07.
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The Blackhawks and Wild combine to score fewer than 7 goals. ( 85% confidence )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-06; known on 2014-05-07; judged right by avipacker on 2014-05-07.
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The Blackhawks and Wild go into overtime in Game 3. ( 36% confidence )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-06; known on 2014-05-07; judged wrong by avipacker on 2014-05-07.
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Hiroki Kuroda pitches at least 8 innings against the Angels. ( 15% confidence )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-06; known on 2014-05-07; judged wrong by avipacker on 2014-05-07.
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Clayton Kershaw gives up 4 ER or more (5/6/2014) ( 5% confidence )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-06; known on 2014-05-07; judged wrong by avipacker on 2014-05-07.
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The Yankees score at least 1 run tonight (5/6/2014) ( 92% confidence )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-06; known on 2014-05-07; judged right by avipacker on 2014-05-07.
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Miami Heat beat Brooklyn Nets in Game 1 ( 70% confidence )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-06; known on 2014-05-06; judged right by avipacker on 2014-05-07.
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I will get a haircut today. ( 60% confidence )
Created by cobalt on 2014-05-06; known on 2014-05-07; judged wrong by cobalt on 2014-05-07.
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Russia will face economic sanctions by mid- 2014 ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by refnum on 2014-03-03; known on 2014-06-15; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2014-05-06.