Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 53% | 60% | 72% | 76% | 100% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 15 | 20 | 18 | 21 | 29 | 1 | 104 |
Displaying all predictions made by Josh Holland. Filter by:
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The US to have a population between 310 million and 334 million on January 1, 2017 ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-27; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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The US to have a population between 300 million and 340 million on January 1, 2018 ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-27; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-01.
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Zhongguo(中国) will outspend the US on science by 2020 ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-27; known on 2020-12-25.
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I will not play a single game of chess online the remainder of 2015. ( 68% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-26; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2016-01-02.
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eBay, Inc. will spin off, sell, or shut down another one of its business units before 2023. ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2015-09-26; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by unexpectedEOF on 2017-12-11.
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Pebbles (elderly pet Labrador) will still be alive by the end of 2016 ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-09-25; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2017-01-01.
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I will have a rating above 1500 on lichess.org at the end of 2015 ( 70% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-09-25; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
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I will stay sober until the end of 2015 ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-09-25; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Josh Holland on 2016-01-01.
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Antibiotics prescribed less than 50 times per 1000 Americans in 2050 ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-21; known on 2051-01-01.
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No Magic: The Gathering film will have been released in more than 1000 theaters by January 1st, 2020. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by aarongertler on 2015-09-24; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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Bank nonperforming loans will exceed 2% of gross total loans in China by the end of 2016. ( 63% confidence; 9 wagers; 38 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-09-23; known on 2017-01-02; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-02-25.
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The VIX index will go above 27 by October 1st 2015 ( 57% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-09-23; known on 2015-10-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-09-29.
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My diabetic partner won't be hospitalized this week despite their intention. ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by marchdown on 2015-09-21; known on 2015-09-28; judged right by marchdown on 2015-10-23.
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Faster-than-light communication developed before 2050 ( 1% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.
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Faster-than-light travel developed before 2050 ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.
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I will complete my expense for the tax year in two weeks time ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by taryneast on 2015-09-21; known on 2015-10-05; judged wrong by taryneast on 2015-10-05.
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I will complete my expense for the tax year by the end of September ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by taryneast on 2015-09-21; known on 2015-09-30; judged wrong by taryneast on 2015-10-07.
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Teleportation to be developed before 2050 ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-20; known on 2050-01-01.
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I will be hospitalised at some point by the end of the year ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-09-01; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2016-01-01.
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I will start a new relationship by the end of the year. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-08-30; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2016-01-01.
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I will get rained on at ArcTanGent Festival ( 75% confidence )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-08-18; known on 2015-08-23; judged right by Josh Holland on 2015-08-23.
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My Facebook Page [https://www.facebook.com/ltasbblog] will have 300+ Likes by the end of September. ( 30% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dvdddg on 2015-08-14; known on 2015-09-30; judged wrong by unexpectedEOF on 2015-10-01.
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I will have moved into my new flat on time. ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-08-14; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-08-30.
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Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license. ( 14% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by quanticle on 2015-08-14; known on 2025-08-15.
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The US Congress will override the Iran nuclear deal. ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-07-29; known on 2015-10-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-10-01.
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Given a no result on the Greek referendum, Greece exits the Eurozone ( 35% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by modulus on 2015-07-05; known on 2015-10-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-10-01.
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The United Kingdom's referendum will vote to stay in the European Union. ( 61% confidence; 40 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by sdr on 2015-06-27; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ejlflop on 2016-06-24.
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I will have low levels of dandruff while continuing to take Zinc supplements over the next 3 months ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2015-06-18; known on 2015-10-01; judged wrong by jasticE on 2015-10-24.
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I will be single as of October 2015 ( 73% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ejlflop on 2015-06-11; known on 2015-10-01; judged right by splorridge on 2015-12-08.
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“No Award” takes at least one Hugo category this year. ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-04-16; known on 2015-08-30; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-23.
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I won't convert to Christianity within the next year ( 99% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-08; known on 2015-10-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16.
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Less than 10 people will die of Ebola in Germany within the next year ( 87% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by qznc on 2014-10-21; known on 2015-10-21; judged right by Josh Holland on 2015-10-21.
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Assange leaves the embassy within a year. ( 39% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-08-18; known on 2015-08-18; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-08-18.
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SR: The FBI/government will gain control in any way of DPR's ~฿600,000 within 2 years. ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-04; known on 2015-10-04.
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Will google's new javascript replacemant, “Dart”, have significant use in the next 3 years ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by drpowell on 2012-10-16; known on 2015-10-16; judged wrong by drpowell on 2015-10-23.
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There will be press report of significant uproar in the U.S. in next 3 years against an anti-Christian video released on the internet (similar to anti muslim video but mirrored) ( 22% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-15; known on 2015-10-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-10-06.
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'Queen Elizabeth II becomes the longest reigning monarch in British history' ( 89% confidence; 27 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2015-09-10; judged right by kuudes on 2015-09-09.
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“Within five years the Chinese government will have embarked on a major eugenics program designed to mass produce super-geniuses. (40%)” —James Miller ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-07; known on 2015-10-06; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-07.