Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Displaying all predictions made by Ragnarok_Reverted. Filter by:
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[Regardless of who is president] Confidence in democracy will continue dropping (as measured by FOA and Pew). ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ragnarok_Reverted on 2020-08-30; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-12-31.
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[Regardless of who is president] The presidential nominee will have a beginning approval rating lower than 57% ( 68% confidence )
Created by Ragnarok_Reverted on 2020-08-30; known on 2020-12-31.
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[Regardless of who is president] There will be riots and/or civil unrest in the US, more extreme or on a larger scale than the the BLM protests and riots in the next four years. ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ragnarok_Reverted on 2020-08-30; known on 2020-12-31; judged unknown by gwern on 2020-09-05.
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Created by Ragnarok_Reverted on 2020-08-30; known on 2025-12-31.
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[Dark Matter and Dark Energy are not dis discovered within the next four years] Dark Matter and Dark Energy are not discovered within the next four years ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Ragnarok_Reverted on 2020-08-30; known on 2025-12-31.