Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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No additional toilet malfunction before end of calendar year ( 80% confidence )
Created by Radish on 2020-08-12; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Radish on 2021-01-03.
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I get Amazon student prime by EOY ( 60% confidence )
Created by Radish on 2020-08-18; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Radish on 2021-01-03.
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Nicolás Maduro will be president of Venezuela on Dec. 31, 2020 ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.
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Scotland will announce an independence referendum in 2020 ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.
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'Internet use reaches 5 billion worldwide' in 2020 ( 71% confidence; 10 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-03.
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There will be a 4x GM in Kaggle in 2020 ( 20% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-16; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.
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California has an earthquake with either one death or >$1B in damage in 2020 ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-18; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.
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Vox Media publishes an article on one of their official news sites about the SSC-NYT affair by the end of the year ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-06-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.
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SIP is completed by the end of 2020 ( 98% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-07-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.
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VR is completed by 2020 ( 95% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-07-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.
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Denison University exceeds 20 COVID cases by the end of the year ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-08-07; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.
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At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site ( 78% confidence; 13 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-06-24; known on 2021-01-02; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.
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Alcor's Patient Trust Fund will be solvent in 2021. ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2021-01-02.
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United States pulls out of NATO ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sflicht on 2021-01-02.
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At least one journalist/blogger jailed for criticizing President Trump ( 18% confidence; 9 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-31; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sflicht on 2021-01-02.
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SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021 ( 70% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sflicht on 2016-04-28; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sflicht on 2021-01-02.
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American ROE (in any relevant theatre) amended to allow US troops to fire on government-associated pakistanis within pakistan borders ( 18% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-01-01.
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I run 5 km in under 21:00 by next year ( 60% confidence )
Created by sam_jaques on 2020-08-11; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sam_jaques on 2021-01-01.
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I run 5km in under 20:00 by the end of the year ( 5% confidence )
Created by sam_jaques on 2020-08-11; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sam_jaques on 2021-01-01.
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The UK administers at least 10 million coronavirus vaccines by the end of the year ( 27% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by sam_jaques on 2020-08-12; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sam_jaques on 2021-01-01.
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“in the year 2020, we're not even close to the kind of disaster you describe – a convergence of three disasters: global currency collapse, significant warfare between rich and poor, and environmental disasters of some significant size. We won't even be cl ( 87% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-18; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.
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Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 — Aubrey de Grey ( 13% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.
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Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA. ( 24% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Nadanate on 2012-11-13; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.
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America allies with North Korea, declares war on South Korea ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.
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#Calexit ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-10; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.
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President Jerry Brown ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.
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Politics, UK – Brexit transition period ends 31st of December 2020 with no deal or extension. ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-09-27; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.
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The Sun will rise on 1 January 2021 ( 100% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sjy on 2020-11-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.
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Sometime in 2020, Satoshi Nakamoto's bitcoins suddenly start to move again, having not moved until 2020. ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
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Kim Jong Un confirmed dead or vegetative state by end of June 2020 ( 23% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-04-26; known on 2020-06-30; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-01-04.
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China will be revealed to have been faking data of COVID-19 confirmed cases by at least 30% on or before the end of year 2020. ( 51% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2020-04-08; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-01-01.
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Created by korakos on 2020-11-29; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by korakos on 2021-01-01.
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Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020 ( 9% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-29; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2021-01-01.
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By the end of 2020, gwern will write a new article for the English Wikipedia and Vipul Naik will pay for the work https://contractwork.vipulnaik.com/ ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-03; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2021-01-01.
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S&P500 crashes by more than 5% in a session within 3 months. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by abelriboulot on 2020-08-04; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Stephen on 2021-01-01.
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I will weight 67kg or less by EOY 2020 ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2020-01-01; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2021-01-01.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] May ( 18% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2021-01-01.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] June ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2021-01-01.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] July ( 10% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2021-01-01.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] August ( 9% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2021-01-01.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] September ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2021-01-01.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] October ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2021-01-01.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] November ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2021-01-01.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] December ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2021-01-01.
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Waymo offers rides to the airport this year. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2020-01-08; known on 2020-12-30; judged wrong by qznc on 2021-01-01.
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Dune movie is released in December 2020 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2020-12-25; judged wrong by qznc on 2021-01-01.
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Uncharted movie is released in December 2020 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2020-12-25; judged wrong by qznc on 2021-01-01.
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Halo Infinite is released in Q4 2020 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2020-12-25; judged wrong by qznc on 2021-01-01.
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All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-07; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-01-01.
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At least one cartoonist arrested for cartoon of President Trump in US ( 19% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-01-01.