Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 62% | 76% | 80% | 94% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 300 | 260 | 195 | 249 | 347 | 149 | 1500 |
Displaying all predictions made by Jayson Virissimo. Filter by:
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An alternative to the US-based Domain Name System will be created and it will be used more widely than the US-based system before 2015. ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-21; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2015-01-01.
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SOPA will become US law and either Youtube or Megaupload will be shutdown. ( 24% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Christopher on 2012-06-25.
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I will complete Project Euler #5 within the next 7 hours. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-21; known on 2011-12-22; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-21.
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Dexter season 7: Dexter will intentionally kill Deb ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-21; known on 2012-12-19; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-12-17.
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SOPA will pass through congress, and then it will not be vetoed. ( 49% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Grognor on 2011-12-21; known on 2012-10-16; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-07-26.
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Steve Ballmer will be CEO of Microsoft at the end of 2012 ( 78% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by faws on 2011-12-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by faws on 2013-01-01.
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Within 5 years biometrics will displace passwords (IBM “5 in 5” http://asmarterplanet.com/blog/2011/12/the-next-5-in-5-you-will-never-need-a-password-again.html) ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-12-20; known on 2016-12-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-12-20.
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I will run 4 miles in 30 minutes or less before June 2012. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-06-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-01.
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I will bench press my own bodyweight or more for 5 sets of 5 reps with 1 minute rests before June 2012. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-06-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-16.
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I will squat my own bodyweight or more for 5 sets of 5 reps with 1 minute rests before June 2012. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-06-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-23.
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I will deadlift my own bodyweight or more for 5 sets of 5 reps with 1 minute rests before June 2012. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-06-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-23.
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Dexter dies in the final episode. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-19; known on 2013-12-19; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-09-23.
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gwern.net referral traffic will average <1000 daily visits in the week a year from now. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-17; known on 2012-12-17; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-17.
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GJP: #1047 Will a foreign or multinational military force fire on, invade, or enter Iran before 1 September 2012? ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-14; known on 2012-09-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-01.
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If Romney wins the Republican candidacy, then Obama will publicly offer him a bet sometime during the 2012 presidential campaign. This prediction will be withdrawn if the antecedent proposition is false. ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-14; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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Chrome will be the most widely used browser during July 2012 according to StatCounter. ( 68% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by faws on 2011-12-12; known on 2012-08-05; judged right by faws on 2012-07-31.
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PredictionBook's email notification system will be fixed by the end of this year. ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-12; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-02-29.
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“[Hillary] Clinton will be Obama's running mate” ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-10; known on 2012-09-03; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-03.
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I will reach 1000 karma on LW (http://lesswrong.com/user/RobertLumley) by June 2nd, the anniversary of my first post on LW. ( 67% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2011-12-08; known on 2012-06-02; judged right by RobertLumley on 2012-04-06.
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France to lose AAA credit rating before midnight ET 30 Jun 2012 —Intrade ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-08; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-13.
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gwern.net will be up and accessible with content in 2020. ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-08; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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I will have rewatched the Evangelion movies by the end of this year. ( 39% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-29.
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James Randi will live to be 93 years old. ( 44% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2011-12-05; known on 2021-08-07; judged wrong by gav on 2020-11-10.
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lukeprog will make >2 predictions on PB during 2012. ( 64% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-04.
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Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070 ( 22% confidence; 12 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-04; known on 2070-01-01.
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North Korea will be wealthier than Afghanistan in 2061. —Scott Sumner ( 73% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-03; known on 2061-01-01.
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Between now and 2022, a religion, subsect, or religious movement will be founded and grow to over 10,000 followers that has explicit ties to Judaism/Christianity/Islam, but rejects the omnipotence of God. ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2011-12-03; known on 2022-01-01.
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Bryan Caplan, or a co-blogger, will write a post on EconLog defending his use of the term “real world” to refer to non-academia in the next two weeks. ( 33% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-30; known on 2011-12-14; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-12-15.
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Greece will leave the Euro currency and return to the “Drachme” latest by mid 2012. ( 20% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by herb on 2011-11-29; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by Michael Stevens on 2012-07-01.
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The USG will ratify the Trans Pacific Partnership before 2015. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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“Newt Gingrich to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012.” -Intrade ( 18% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-28; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-11-10.
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I will finish Seneca 84 tonight ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Codyz on 2011-11-28; known on 2011-11-29; judged wrong by Codyz on 2011-11-28.
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I will finish the 3rd book of Roman Slavery (articles) tonight ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Codyz on 2011-11-28; known on 2011-11-29; judged right by Codyz on 2011-11-28.
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Mitt Romney will be the next President of the United States. He will win the Republican nomination and win the general election in 2012. ( 31% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by capcuervo on 2011-11-26; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-07.
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I will be able to complete 100 good-form push ups in 6 weeks' time following the program at hundredpushups.com. ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by roshni on 2011-11-23; known on 2012-01-04; judged wrong by roshni on 2012-03-05.
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My guinea pig will learn to move in a circle on command in 2 months time. ( 37% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by roshni on 2011-11-23; known on 2012-01-30; judged wrong by roshni on 2012-03-05.
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I will have “mind-fog” when I wake up in 8 hours. ( 49% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-21; known on 2011-11-21; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-22.
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“Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150.” -lukeprog ( 66% confidence; 13 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20; known on 2150-01-01.
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I will pass the Institute of Actuaries' entry exam. ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-20; known on 2012-02-15; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-02-10.
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Harbinger1 will be generally accepted to be a troll by the PB community ( 28% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-17; known on 2011-12-17; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-20.
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PredictionBook will be modified sometime before January 10, 2012 months to have some form of moderation. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-17; known on 2012-01-10.
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the sun will rise in the west and sets in the east ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by dr_freezy on 2011-11-17; known on 2011-11-17; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-17.
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Egypt will go throw another war with Isreal ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ahmedwael on 2011-11-17; known on 2011-12-10; judged wrong by procran on 2011-12-10.
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Harbinger1 is a genuine user but unfamiliar with LessWrong tropes ( 64% confidence; 7 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-17; known on 2011-12-17; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-20.
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With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ( 8% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2023-07-29; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-05.
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The worlds first “truely” cryogenic sleep chamber will go online in Feb. 2027, fixing a flawed design and conditions for cryogenic stasis. ( 5% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2027-02-27.
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Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029. ( 7% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-12-01.
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The first truly human telepathic-link will occur in 2065 via a biometric implant. ( 6% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2065-12-01.
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The United States, Canada, and Mexico will form the North American Union in August 2020. ( 4% confidence; 22 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2020-08-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-08-30.
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“New Zealand to be in recession in December 2011 quarter” -ipredict ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-16; known on 2012-02-22; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-29.
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“Lindsay Lohan will be dead within 2 years.” ( 8% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-16; known on 2013-11-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-16.
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The oldest living person on 2020-01-01 will be at least 130 years old. ( 0% confidence; 15 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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The Singularity will occur by 2050. ( 34% confidence; 27 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by michaelanissimov on 2011-11-15; known on 2050-01-01.
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The SCOTUS ruling on the Obama administration's health care reform law will be a 5-4 decision. ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RobertLumley on 2011-11-15; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-07-01.
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The British High Court will rule in favor of the journal Nature in the libel case brought against it by Professor Mohamed El Naschie. ( 82% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jason on 2011-11-15; known on 2012-06-30; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-09.
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Pace will defeat Torres at UFC 139. ( 51% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-19; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20.
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Tibau will defeat dos Anjos at UFC 139. ( 51% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-19; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20.
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Le will defeat Silva at UFC 139. ( 55% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-19; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20.
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Rua will defeat Henderson at UFC 139. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-19; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20.
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McDonald will defeat Soto at UFC 139. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-19; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20.
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Weidman will defeat Lawlor at UFC 139. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-19; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20.
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Kampmann will defeat Story at UFC 139. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-19; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20.
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Faber will defeat Bowles at UFC 139. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-19; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20.
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Brown will defeat Baczynski at UFC 139. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-19; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20.
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Bonnar will defeat Kingsbury at UFC 139. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-19; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20.
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Bailey will defeat Castillo at UFC 139. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-19; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20.
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Bader will defeat Brilz at UFC 139. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-19; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20.
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The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025. ( 72% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.
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The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025. ( 30% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.
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The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025. ( 9% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.
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I will join the military before 2015. ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-01-01.
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I will continue using PredictionBook at least once a month until 2015. ( 33% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-01.
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I will complete all of the chapter 5 exercises in Introduction to JAVA Programming by 2011-12-03. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-12-03; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-06.
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I will complete all of the chapter 4 exercises in Introduction to JAVA Programming by 2011-11-26. ( 45% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-26; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-06.
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I will complete all of the chapter 3 exercises in Introduction to JAVA Programming by 2011-11-19. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-19; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20.
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I will brainstorm ideas for anything for the first 5-10 minutes after I wake up in the mornings, and record them all. I will do this every day for at least 1 month. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by divad12 on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-12-15; judged right by divad12 on 2012-01-07.
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“Sometime in the next five years, there will be a terroristic attack in or near Las Vegas.” -David Henderson ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-14; known on 2016-11-14; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-14.
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30 new speaker invitations for Singularity Summit 2012 will be written by the end of Monday, Nov. 14th. ( 78% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2011-11-12; known on 2011-11-15; judged right by lukeprog on 2011-11-15.
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At least one presidential debate of 2012 will include a question about “anti-capitalism”. ( 39% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-08.
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At least two first-term Republican congressmen/congresswomen elected in 2010 will be defeated by their Democratic rivals in 2012. ( 86% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-11-08; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-14.
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“3D printing” will be a multi-billion dollar industry by 2021. ( 71% confidence; 14 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-14.
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I will have read Godel, Escher, Bach by the end of this year. ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-17.
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I will have read Godel, Escher, Bach by the end of this month. ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-12; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-17.
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Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ( 8% confidence; 31 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2035-01-01.
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At least one self-described “anarchist” will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021. ( 36% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
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Evidence of extraterrestrial life will be discovered by 2017. ( 11% confidence; 18 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-02; known on 2017-01-01.
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I will have read Godel, Escher, Bach by 18th November. ( 21% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-11; known on 2011-11-18; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-17.
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I will still be alive in 2013. ( 99% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-11-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by chemotaxis101 on 2014-02-22.
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Sister Y still alive in 2013. ( 93% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-11-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.
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cousin_it will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Wei Dai will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-01-01.
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Anna Salamon will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-09.
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wedrifid will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-31.
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Phil Goetz will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2012-03-25.
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Alicorn will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-01-01.
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Yvain will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2012-10-21.
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DaMarques Johnson will defeat Clay Harvison in their fight on November, 12th. ( 76% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2011-11-12; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-13.
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Ricardo Lamas will defeat Cub Swanson in their fight on November, 12th. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2011-11-12; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-13.
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Dustin Poirier will defeat Pablo Garza in their fight on November, 12th. ( 76% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2011-11-12; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-13.
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Ben Henderson will defeat Clay Guida in their fight on November, 12th. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2011-11-12; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-13.