Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 52% | 60% | 72% | 78% | 93% | 97% | |
Sample Size | 126 | 209 | 180 | 240 | 430 | 346 | 1531 |
Displaying all predictions made by Tapetum-Lucidum. Filter by:
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UN Chief Antonio Guterres resigns by 2024 ( 13% confidence )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 7 days ago; known on 2024-01-01.
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AI winter in 2024 ( 1% confidence )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 20 days ago; known on 2025-01-01.
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WW3 by 2025 ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 21 days ago; known on 2025-01-01.
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Elon Musk will attempt to run for president in 2024 ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Milani on 2023-09-29; known on 2024-01-16.
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PredictionBook will transition to read-only mode as originally stated. ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by avi on 2023-09-27; known on 2024-01-10.
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A room temperature, ambient pressure superconductor is used in household appliances by 2050 ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-12; known on 2050-01-01.
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A room temperature, ambient pressure superconductor is used in household appliances by 2040 ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-12; known on 2040-01-01.
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A room temperature, ambient pressure superconductor is used in household appliances by 2030 ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-12; known on 2030-01-01.
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A paper proposing a better method for creating LK-99 is published on arxiv by Friday ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-06; known on 2023-08-11; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-12.
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General consensus that LK-99 or some component of it is a room temp superconductor by Sept 1, 2024 ( 33% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-02; known on 2024-09-01.
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General consensus that LK-99 or some component of it is a room temp superconductor by Sept 1. ( 26% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-07-31; known on 2023-09-02; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-09-02.
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Alien invasion, real or faked by end of 2025. ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-07-07; known on 2026-01-01.
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On days with caffeine, my average happiness during the day was higher than days with placebo. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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Reddit has an IPO before 2024 ( 82% confidence )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-06-11; known on 2024-01-01.
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Trump is convicted in relation to the mishandling of classified information case, by 2025 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-06-11; known on 2025-01-01.
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I move back from London ( 27% confidence )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-06-02; known on 2024-01-01.
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Within 8 months of serial research, a competent team can find a “secret spilling” steering vector which gets a smart model to give up in-context secrets across a variety of situations. ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-05-13; known on 2025-05-13.
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Software engineer salaries in the United States are going to plummet to the average of the global work force within the next 24 months ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-04-23; known on 2025-05-15.
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there is an anti-AI rent seeking bill (something that protects an industry for non-ethical/eschaton-deterring reasons) in the next year ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by norelation on 2023-04-12; known on 2024-04-12.
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AI x-risk is supported by right-wing US political actors, conditional on it becoming a sufficiently mainstream political issue and ignoring roughly bipartisan consensus ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-04-10; known on 2025-04-10.
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People in the West will be largely “living in 15-minute prison camps, eating bugs, and living in pods.” ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-04-08; known on 2030-01-01.
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Artificial intelligence radically disrupts the global economy within 2 years ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by sjy on 2023-03-28; known on 2025-04-01.
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TikTok is banned from Android and Apple app stores in the US by 2024 ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-03-28; known on 2024-01-01; judged unknown by GeoffR on 2023-04-03.
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Netanyahu steps down as prime minister any time between now and 2024 ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-03-27; known on 2024-01-01.
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Capitalism will collapse. Federal gov won't exist. Peak oil ( 12% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Musrang on 2023-03-21; known on 2027-01-01.
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SpaceX will NOT land people on Mars by 2030. ( 55% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Lunchroom1685 on 2023-03-20; known on 2030-01-01.
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By 2028 there will be a biological catastrophe worse than COVID ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-03-13; known on 2029-01-01.
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The Russo-Ukrainian war is still ongoing ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-03-13; known on 2028-02-24.
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Elon Musk steps down as CEO of Tesla ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-02-27; known on 2024-01-01.
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China will attempt an invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2025. ( 20% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2021-04-09; known on 2025-12-31.
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Elon Musk buys Silicon Valley Bank before April 30 ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-03-12; known on 2023-04-30; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-05-04.
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At least one more bank will be taken over by FDIC next week ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-03-12; known on 2023-03-17; judged right by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-03-17.
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By 2030, Elon Musk sells Twitter or allows it to declare bankruptcy ( 75% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-02; known on 2030-01-01.
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Human extinction caused by AI before my 50th birthday. ( 19% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-02-28; known on 2043-10-10.
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We will fairly convincingly know who Satoshi Nakamoto is in five years. ( 20% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JohnGreer on 2018-04-13; known on 2023-04-13; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-31.
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Donald Trump is indicted anywhere in the US, for any reason ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-03-10; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-03-30.
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New license or license type (like Creative Commons) will be created to try preventing unauthorized use of one own's written, picture, or video material to train AI (eg. LLM) ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by technophil on 2023-03-06; known on 2023-12-31.
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Twitter outage resolved by 5pm PT today ( 80% confidence )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-03-06; known on 2023-03-07; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-03-07.
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Ukraine to withdraw from Bakhmut by April 10. ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-03-05; known on 2023-04-11; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-04-11.
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Sean Hannity is charged with sedition ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-02-22; known on 2028-01-01.
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Marjorie Taylor Greene is charged with sedition ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-02-22; known on 2028-01-01.
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At least one UAP shot down this week was balloon-based ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-02-13; known on 2024-01-01.
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A high-level US executive branch official states that the cylindrical flying object shot down in Alaska on Friday came from Russia ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-02-12; known on 2024-01-01.
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A high-level US executive branch official states that the cylindrical flying object shot down in Alaska on Friday came from China ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-02-11; known on 2024-01-01.
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Biden loses the 2024 presidential election ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-02-15; known on 2025-02-01.
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At least one of the three UAPs shot down remains publicly unidentified ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-02-14; known on 2024-02-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-02-18.
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Kinetic war between US and China ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-02-12; known on 2024-01-01.
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The UK or an EU member provides fighter jets to Ukraine ( 45% confidence )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-02-10; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-31.
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Google still has more than 66% market share for search by 2030 ( 73% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-12-31.
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We will not have a Singularity or intelligence explosion of the sort predicted by Yudkowsky in 'The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate – LessWrong' by 2035 ( 72% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-06-22; known on 2035-01-01.
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The world will end in 2078 to a nuclear holocaust. ( 8% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Fenrir on 2020-10-31; known on 2078-12-31.
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Ron DeSantis runs in the 2024 Republican presidential primary. ( 81% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-25; known on 2025-01-01.
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Donald Trump will be elected president in 2024. ( 34% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Wineormilk on 2022-03-27; known on 2024-11-09.
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Elon Musk steps down as CEO of Twitter ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-19; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-31.
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By 2025, Kanye West states that he regrets his recent antisemitic statements ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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By January 1, 2031, large-language models combined with automated proof checking systems like Lean and Coq will have contributed to proofs which have appeared in major math journals. ( 53% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-21; known on 2031-01-01.
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German – US – Ukraine tank deal occurs ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-19; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-28.
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Transformers are the final architecture needed for AGI ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-18; known on 2099-01-01.
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China builds a moonbase by 2028 ( 23% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-05; known on 2028-01-01.
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Magnus Carlsen will officially accuse Hans Niemann of cheating in an over the board tournament ( 69% confidence; 2 wagers; 142 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-09-22; known on 2025-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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By 2025, Kanye West makes another album ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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Marco Rubio will be Donald Trump's VP pick ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-01; known on 2025-01-01.
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Kevin McCarthy becomes speaker of the house ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-05; known on 2023-06-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-07.
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Kanye West alive ( 97% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-29; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-14.
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Are large language models the final paradigm before AGI? (not sure about the best way to operationalize this question yet.) ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Morpheus on 2022-12-16; known on 2070-01-01.
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SBF extradited from the Bahamas to the US ( 91% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-14; known on 2025-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-23.
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A second lab achieves ignition in a fusion experiment ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-12; known on 2030-01-01.
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Google Search will be less popular than a product from OpenAI by 2026 ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by elecnix on 2022-12-10; known on 2026-01-01.
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PRC ends Zero-Covid Policy ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-27; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-07.
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CME Group will claim the video of their CEO stating that he bribed a CFTC regulator was digitally manipulated. ( 19% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-26; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-07.
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Twitter will be online on the 15th of December 2022. On that date, I will be able to post a tweet and other people will be able to see it. ( 89% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2022-11-18; known on 2022-12-15; judged right by danielfilan on 2022-12-15.
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Binance goes bankrupt ( 49% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-17; known on 2024-01-01.
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Donald Trump runs as an Independent in the 2024 Presidential election ( 27% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by firaskanaan on 2022-11-16; known on 2024-08-16.
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Joe Biden will be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2024 ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by firaskanaan on 2022-11-16; known on 2024-03-16.
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Ron DeSantis wins the 2024 Republican presidential primary ( 56% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-14; known on 2024-09-01.
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Elizabeth Holmes to be sentenced to 4 to 12 years in prison. ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-11-13; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-11-19.
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I will post a tweet between Dec 1 2023 and Dec 7 2023 (inclusive). ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2022-11-12; known on 2023-12-07.
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Sam Bankman-Fried will be arrested before January 1, 2024, on charges related to the (as of 2022-11-10) liquidity crunch at FTX. ( 51% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pmberg on 2022-11-10; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-13.
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Adept AI's demo is way better than it can actually do (https://twitter.com/AdeptAILabs/status/1590396065072951296) ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by cmessinger on 2022-11-10; known on 2023-07-02.
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The federal reserve will continue raising interest rates through June 2023. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ebloch on 2022-11-09; known on 2023-07-01.
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Republicans have what is widely regarded as a blowout election in their favor at the midterms, including taking both the House and Senate. ( 44% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-11-02; known on 2022-11-10; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-11-10.
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By 2030, Bluesky (Jack Dorsey startup/app) becomes widely used ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-02; known on 2030-01-01.
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By 2025, Kanye West states that he has begun to take a mood-stabilizing medication again ( 60% confidence )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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PRC blockade of Taiwan by sea and air ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-10-26; known on 2027-01-01.
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The US Govt ban on Nvidia selling datacenter GPUs in China is lifted by 2030 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-09-06; known on 2030-01-01.
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Biden wins the 2024 US presidential election, according to the New York Times ( 70% confidence )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-09-05; known on 2025-06-01.
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If Trump is indicted in D.C., he will move for change-of-venue on the grounds that no impartial jury can be selected due to aggregate political prejudice of D.C. voters ( 84% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2022-08-26; known on 2028-01-01.
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Biden cancels all outstanding student loan debt prior to 2019 ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-08-23; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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House of the Dragon to have a better first episode than Rings of Power, as judged by me ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-08-19; known on 2022-09-03; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-09-04.
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Bruce Reinhart is alive and well ( 99% confidence )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-08-19; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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Mike Pence alive ( 96% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-08-18; known on 2025-01-01.
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George R. R. Martin dies before Winds of Winter is published ( 49% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-08-14; known on 2050-01-01.
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Donald Trump is indicted as a result of the documents seized from Mar-a-Lago ( 47% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-08-10; known on 2025-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-31.
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Biden tests negative for covid again by Aug 10 2020 ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-07-31; known on 2022-08-10; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-08-10.
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Conditional on Putin leaving office in the middle of a term, Nikolai Patrushev is his successor for the majority of that term ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-07-29; known on 2040-01-01.
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I will continue to think that AI alignment (including governance, multiagent, field building etc) is the most important thing for me to work on July 27th 2023. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by peterbarnett on 2022-07-28; known on 2023-07-27.
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We will not have a Singularity or intelligence explosion, of the sort predicted by Yudkowsky in 'The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate – LessWrong' by 2025 ( 96% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-06-22; known on 2025-01-01.
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We will not have a Singularity or intelligence explosion, of the sort predicted by Yudkowsky in 'The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate – LessWrong' by 2030. ( 78% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-06-22; known on 2030-01-01.
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P vs. NP will be still unsolved at the end of this decade. ( 96% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Leifa on 2022-07-11; known on 2030-01-01.
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Elon Musk will have at least 12 children total (3+ more children) by 2025 ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sungk2048 on 2022-07-08; known on 2025-01-01.