Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 33% | 0% | 100% | 57% | 100% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 28 |
Displaying all predictions made by halfwit. Filter by:
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Scott Adams – I predict Trump gets at least 65% of the votes in the general election. ( 4% confidence; 20 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by halfwit on 2015-11-03; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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I will find a suitable Hobbit costume at the op-shop on Sunday ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ZGreyArea on 2013-12-05; known on 2013-12-08; judged right by ZGreyArea on 2013-12-09.
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By January 2014, a default opted-in Internet Porn Filter will be deployed in >40% of the households in the UK. ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by sdr on 2013-07-31; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by sdr on 2014-02-01.
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Liam Fox will return to a Cabinet post in the next reshuffle ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by thostian on 2013-07-31; known on 2014-07-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-07-21.
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I will finish my books within the week ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by thostian on 2013-07-31; known on 2013-08-14; judged right by thostian on 2013-08-15.
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My blood test will show nothing of great import ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by thostian on 2013-07-31; known on 2013-08-02; judged right by thostian on 2013-08-05.
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I will get into my first choice for university ( 39% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by thostian on 2013-07-31; known on 2013-08-20; judged right by thostian on 2014-09-16.
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Labour's current civil war (progress/unite) will cause the formation of a successful and large second party. ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by thostian on 2013-07-31; known on 2013-11-11; judged wrong by thostian on 2014-09-20.
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HP MoR: Quirinus Quirrell is actually Nymphadora Tonks. ( 0% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-25; known on 2014-07-25; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-13.
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At least 5 people taking part in the July2013 Leverage polyphasic adaptation will be sleeping polyphasically as of Jan 1, 2014. ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-07-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Malcolm Ocean on 2014-01-03.
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Elon Musk's Hyperloop will be some variation of a Lofstrom loop ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by phreeza on 2013-07-16; known on 2013-08-13; judged wrong by phreeza on 2013-08-12.
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Elon Musk's hyperloop method of transportation will not be an underground solution. ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by zpinter on 2013-07-15; known on 2013-09-01; judged right by zpinter on 2013-08-12.
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Within five years, Gwern will be hired as a “statistician columnist” by a mainstream blog; “mainstream blog” is defined as a blog with no less than 1/6th of the annual traffic theverge.com currently gets. ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by halfwit on 2013-07-13; known on 2018-07-14; judged wrong by enolan on 2018-08-27.
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Snowden arrested by US authorities before 2014 ( 24% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2013-06-23; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-12-31.
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Before 2020, there'll be a news story about Google/FB/Amazon or other multibillion dollar public tech company employee being a government (US or foreign) mole. ( 50% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-06-18; known on 2020-01-02; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-04-21.
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Before 2023, Charlie Stross will write and publish a novel that features a Roko's Basilisk-like plot device ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by halfwit on 2013-06-14; known on 2023-06-14.
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MIRI and its mission will be endorsed by at least one Nobel Prize winner before the year 2019, not including winners of the Peace Prize or the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by halfwit on 2013-06-10; known on 2020-01-01.
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The information collected by PRISM that's listed as being from Google and Facebook will turn out to have been collected via some means other than a backdoor API/access provided by the companies themselves. ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by zpinter on 2013-06-07; known on 2014-06-07; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-02.
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By 2050, a professional league would have raised the height of the rims in basketball above 10 feet. ( 39% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-21; known on 2050-01-01.
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Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, “How to create a mind”) ( 25% confidence; 17 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-02-08; known on 2029-01-02.
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By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI. ( 6% confidence; 24 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2021-01-01.
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Robin Hanson & Katja Grace will be in a publicly-known romantic relationship at some point in the next 10 years ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-02; known on 2022-09-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2022-09-02.
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'I expect to see an impressive proto-AGI within the next 8 years' —Shane Legg ( 20% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-31; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2019-12-31.
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The Singularity will occur by 2050. ( 34% confidence; 27 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by michaelanissimov on 2011-11-15; known on 2050-01-01.
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At any point before 2100, 5 billion humans (or emulated humans) are alive and physically within 3000 km of each other. ( 50% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-19; known on 2100-01-01.
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Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen. ( 47% confidence; 23 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-03; known on 2041-01-01.
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Most human workers spend the majority of their time acquiring new skills and knowledge by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 2% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Computers have made paper books and documents almost completely obsolete by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 16% confidence; 17 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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Massively parallel neural nets and genetic algorithms are in wide use by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 95% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-02-09.
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The summed computational powers of all computers is comparable to the total brainpower of the human race. —Ray Kurzweil ( 55% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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Three-dimensional nanotube lattices are the dominant computing substrate. —Ray Kurzweil ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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By 2020, there will be a new World government. —Ray Kurzweil ( 2% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040. ( 68% confidence; 46 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by rwallace on 2009-10-14; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by freyley on 2009-10-21.