Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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“Hurricanes in Florida will be less in 2005-2015, than the average of the preceding three decades” ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Asuka will appear little after 2.0 and have an unimportant off-screen death ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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NGE manga: Sadamoto's manga will conclude as Rei x Shinji ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Kaworu will be renamed to “Kaworu Nagisanami” ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Kaworu will be renamed ( 35% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Kaworu will again be faced with a choice between committing suicide or killing humanity and will not choose suicide ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Kaworu will again be faced with a choice between committing suicide or killing humanity ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Kaworu will kill a kitten ( 35% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Kaworu will kill an Angel ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: The entity in Terminal Dogma is still Lilith (of NGE TV) in some sense ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: There will be no 3rd Impact. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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China will forgive US debt in exchange for the ending of US-Taiwan defense treaties by or during 2015 ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-11; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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Google Knol will be shutdown in 2015 ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-13; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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EoE will be released on Bluray in 2015 ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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NGE TV will be released on Bluray in 2015 ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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By the end of 2015, Madplatypus will self-identify as one of the following: Buddhist, fascist, or anti-natalist. ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-09-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Madplatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: story completed during Harry's first year of Hogwarts ( 73% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: story completed during Harry's second year of Hogwarts ( 13% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: story completed during Harry's third year of Hogwarts ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: story completed during Harry's fourth year or later of Hogwarts ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: someone will be mentioned or shown using the Imperius curse on themselves (or consenting to another's use on them) to supplement their willpower (dieting, working hard, etc.) ( 32% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Creation of a Philosopher's Stone requires the sacrifice of human life. (a la Shyy Zrgny Nypurzvfg) ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-22; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: the Philosopher's Stone will be mass-manufactured by Harry or at his behest ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Azkaban Island is the last remnant of Atlantis ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Dementors either copy minds or store souls for later resurrection ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Lucius Malfoy was, at least initially, Imperiused into becoming a Death Eater ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: There will be at least one character whose Animagus form is another human ( 24% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: There will be at least one onscreen polyamorous relationship in the Methods of Rationality. ( 30% confidence; 15 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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I will end up assigning a 50% or greater probability to a pro-life position by the end of the year ( 50% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-22; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-01-01.
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I will have read 5 novels by the end of this year ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-23; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry/Hermione will be the only romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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I will accidentally buy non-bivalvegan food by the end of the year. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-20; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by RoryS on 2016-01-01.
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I will favour hedonistic to preference utilitarianism at the end of the year ( 90% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-19; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by RoryS on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry/Luna will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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My diet will still be vegan or bivalvegan at the end of this year ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by RoryS on 2016-01-01.
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I will still self-identify as an effective altruist at the end of this year ( 90% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by RoryS on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry/Ginny will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry/Tracey will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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I will encounter a girl, whom I genuinely want to be with and we'll date and be all cute and whatnot. (by the end of this year). ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry/Draco will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Draco/Luna will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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I will become sympathetic to mainstream analytic metaphysics by the end of the year ( 2% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Dumbledore did not kill Narcissa, but claimed he did. ( 54% confidence; 11 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-21; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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Ryan and I will write a paper in the next year for the Foundational Research Institute ( 50% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-05; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-01-01.
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Ryan & I will have an anecdote that is equal to or better than the prostitute story by the end of this year ( 3% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-06-20; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-01-01.
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Blizzard will release Hearthstone to the consoles this year. ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by VoidChronos on 2015-04-16; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by VoidChronos on 2016-01-01.
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USA to begin phase-out of pennies by start of 2016. ( 12% confidence; 30 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-13; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-01-01.
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Predictionbook's overall confidence will remain within 5% of accuracy in buckets 50-90 by 2016. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sdr on 2015-07-09; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by btrettel on 2016-01-01.
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Vladimir Putin will be president of Russia as of 1st January 2016 ( 91% confidence; 18 wagers )
Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by btrettel on 2016-01-01.