Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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A new character from an upcoming show/movie will make a cameo ( 30% confidence )
Created by gebeverungen on 2022-04-09; known on 2022-05-04; judged wrong by gebeverungen on 2022-05-06.
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Blade will make a cameo ( 2% confidence )
Created by gebeverungen on 2022-04-09; known on 2022-05-04; judged wrong by gebeverungen on 2022-05-06.
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She-hulk will make a cameo ( 2% confidence )
Created by gebeverungen on 2022-04-09; known on 2022-05-04; judged wrong by gebeverungen on 2022-05-06.
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A Daredevil-verse character will make a cameo ( 4% confidence )
Created by gebeverungen on 2022-04-09; known on 2022-05-04; judged wrong by gebeverungen on 2022-05-06.
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I will cross the 15,000 copies-sold mark for Mind Management, Not Time Management by the end of May 2022 ( 70% confidence )
Created by kadavy on 2022-03-15; known on 2022-06-01; judged right by kadavy on 2022-05-05.
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Tesla RoboTaxi project will fail / be discontinued by 2 May 2022 ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by separo on 2019-05-19; known on 2022-05-02; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-03.
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Shurtleff v. Boston to be decided against Boston with at least six justices in the majority or concurring opinions. ( 74% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-19; known on 2022-08-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-05-02.
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Russian sovereign debt default by May 1, 2022 ( 47% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-09; known on 2022-05-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-02.
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Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years. ( 9% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-05-01; known on 2022-05-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2022-05-01.
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Ukraine to surrender to Russia by May 1st. ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-03-18; known on 2022-05-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-05-01.
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I do not think Belinda will secure funding from Tanya ( 65% confidence )
Created by rlourie on 2022-01-24; known on 2022-01-24; judged wrong by God on 2022-05-01.
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Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper. ( 59% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by penten on 2016-12-01; known on 2021-12-01; judged wrong by God on 2022-05-01.
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Sometime within calendar year 2022, Ooga leaves Ashley's embrace for long enough to log onto predictionbook and judge their only prediction. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-07; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by rlourie on 2023-01-09.
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I will graduate College ( 100% confidence )
Created by SRA311CK on 2021-04-04; known on 2022-01-16; judged right by Goddess on 2022-04-30.
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roommate has covid ( 25% confidence )
Created by technillogue on 2022-01-03; known on 2022-01-17; judged wrong by Goddess on 2022-04-30.
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Personal – it will take me less than 2 months to find a job ( 85% confidence )
Created by EricClampton on 2021-06-28; known on 2021-11-15; judged wrong by Goddess on 2022-04-30.
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Personal – My new job will be in the technology sector ( 45% confidence )
Created by EricClampton on 2021-06-28; known on 2021-11-15; judged right by Goddess on 2022-04-30.
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A guest character (not from a Blizzard universe) to be released in Heroes of the Storm within 5 years, conditional on the game still up by that time. ( 7% confidence )
Created by timujin on 2017-03-29; known on 2022-03-29; judged wrong by rlourie on 2022-04-28.
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Nothing ( 100% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2021-08-02; known on 2021-08-02; judged right by God on 2022-04-27.
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Biden’s approval will fall by 1%. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-21; known on 2021-09-20; judged right by God on 2022-04-27.
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I will find my niche within EA ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-29; known on 2022-01-03; judged wrong by God on 2022-04-27.
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I will be alive on my 33rd birthday. ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by ZLM on 2014-02-11; known on 2022-01-30; judged wrong by God on 2022-04-27.
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I will get into a debate with a close friend about having kids and fighting climate change ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by _galvo_ on 2022-01-17; known on 2022-02-27; judged wrong by God on 2022-04-27.
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liz will die of covid by feb 27 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by issobel on 2022-02-21; known on 2022-02-27; judged wrong by God on 2022-04-27.
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The wuhan wet market did not facilitate the spread of Covid-19 ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EricClampton on 2021-06-28; known on 2022-03-05; judged wrong by God on 2022-04-27.
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Joe Biden's renewed interest in the Lab Leak theory was entirely politically motivated. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EricClampton on 2021-06-28; known on 2022-03-05; judged wrong by God on 2022-04-27.
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alex will cry within the next three weeks ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by issobel on 2022-02-21; known on 2022-03-07; judged wrong by God on 2022-04-27.
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Sometime within calendar year 2022, Ooga leaves Ashley's embrace for long enough to log onto predictionbook and judge their only prediction. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-07; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by rlourie on 2023-01-09.
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Marine le Pen will win the French presidential election in 2022. ( 15% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Tot on 2021-09-06; known on 2022-05-01; judged wrong by edrevo on 2022-04-25.
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Macron will be elected president in 2022 ( 79% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mathieu on 2022-04-06; known on 2022-04-25; judged right by Baeboo on 2022-04-25.
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Emmanuel Macron will win the French presidential elections in 2022. ( 70% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tot on 2021-09-06; known on 2022-05-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2022-04-25.
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[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] none of these parties ( 1% confidence )
Created by Konsti on 2021-04-02; known on 2022-03-01; judged wrong by amadeu on 2022-04-21.
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[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] FDP (liberal party) ( 2% confidence )
Created by Konsti on 2021-04-02; known on 2022-03-01; judged wrong by amadeu on 2022-04-21.
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[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] AfD (nationalist party) ( 2% confidence )
Created by Konsti on 2021-04-02; known on 2022-03-01; judged wrong by amadeu on 2022-04-21.
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[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] CDU or CSU (conservative party) ( 40% confidence )
Created by Konsti on 2021-04-02; known on 2022-03-01; judged wrong by amadeu on 2022-04-21.
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[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] SPD (social democratic party) ( 12% confidence )
Created by Konsti on 2021-04-02; known on 2022-03-01; judged right by amadeu on 2022-04-21.
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[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] Die Linke (socialist party) ( 3% confidence )
Created by Konsti on 2021-04-02; known on 2022-03-01; judged wrong by amadeu on 2022-04-21.
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Wind will produce 7% or more of consumed US power by 2022. Linked to my believe the US will have no transcontinental transmission strategy by then. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by atomicspaceman on 2017-02-08; known on 2022-03-05; judged right by amadeu on 2022-04-21.
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5% of US energy production will be from solar sources by 2022. ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by atomicspaceman on 2017-02-08; known on 2022-03-05; judged wrong by amadeu on 2022-04-21.
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Borders of Mali modified in the next ten years ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Leo on 2012-03-26; known on 2022-03-27; judged wrong by amadeu on 2022-04-21.
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eth at 5k+ in a year ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by htaussig on 2021-04-19; known on 2022-04-19; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-20.
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Someone other than me makes a prediction in the next week ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-19; known on 2022-04-26; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-04-19.
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Tapetum-Lucidum does not make any more metapredictions, after this one, until 2023 ( 27% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-17; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-19.
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Éric Zemmour ne se présentera pas ou n'atteindra pas 5% au premier tour des élections présidentielles de 2022. ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tot on 2021-09-20; known on 2022-05-01; judged wrong by Tot on 2022-04-18.
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I'll be in the process of buying a flat by the end of June 2022. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Tot on 2021-09-13; known on 2022-07-01; judged right by Tot on 2022-04-18.
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Jean-Luc Mélenchon fera un meilleur score aux élections présidentielles de 2022 qu'à celles de 2017. ( 10% confidence )
Created by Tot on 2021-09-21; known on 2022-05-01; judged right by Tot on 2022-04-18.
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WHO adds a new COVID-19 “variant of concern” by April 16th, 2022 ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno on 2022-01-16; known on 2022-04-16; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-18.
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Éric Zemmour obtiendra un score supérieur à celui de Marine le Pen au premier tour des élections présidentielles de 2022. ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Tot on 2022-02-14; known on 2022-05-01; judged wrong by 0uGiL on 2022-04-17.
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Bharat will be ranked 2nd in the world by 2020 for steel production. ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-29; known on 2020-12-25; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-12.
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1 person helicopter drones in commercial use ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kjaques on 2016-12-15; known on 2021-12-25; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-12.