Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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I will clean my car out by next saturday night ( 30% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-06-29; known on 2014-07-05; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-07-05.
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Rebekah Brooks will be convicted, while Andy Coulson will go free in the News Corp scandal ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-24; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2014-07-04.
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I'll go on the Hamptons trip with Star and Peter, serving as a designated driver. ( 20% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-28; known on 2014-07-04; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2014-07-04.
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Boss will give me a plan to get me to mgmt by EoCY. ( 30% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-07-03; known on 2014-07-03; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-07-03.
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The second Android: Netrunner big box expansion will feature Jinteki (in the same way as the first featured Haas-Bioroid). ( 90% confidence )
Created by Thelas on 2013-10-10; known on 2014-07-02; judged right by Thelas on 2014-07-02.
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NYRRB: I will keep my New Year's resolutions from now until the fall equinox. ( 50% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-06-01; known on 2014-09-23; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-07-02.
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I will go to at least 1 frat party during the 2013/14 school year. ( 25% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-09-07; known on 2014-07-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-07-01.
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The Opportunity rover will continue doing science (either mobile or as a fixed station) until at least July 1, 2014 ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-03; known on 2014-07-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2014-07-01.
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weirderweb.com will get a book deal. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ZrCa on 2013-02-12; known on 2014-07-01; judged wrong by John Maxwell IV on 2014-07-01.
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“Bitcoin will trade for under $10 a share by the first half of 2014.” — Mark T. Williams (http://www.businessinsider.com/williams-bitcoin-meltdown-10-2013-12) ( 5% confidence; 21 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2013-12-18; known on 2014-07-01; judged wrong by clemux on 2014-07-01.
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There will be fewer than 20 wagers on this prediction two weeks from today. ( 70% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-18; known on 2014-07-01; judged right by aarongertler on 2014-07-01.
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I will still not have blacked out from alcohol consumption by the end of this June ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Rowan93 on 2014-01-24; known on 2014-07-01; judged right by Rowan93 on 2014-07-01.
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I will weigh at least 80kg by the end of June ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Rowan93 on 2014-01-24; known on 2014-07-01; judged wrong by Rowan93 on 2014-07-01.
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Captain America Winter Soldier will do about as expected (4wk gross within +/-20% of HSX @ 191.90m) ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomMovie on 2012-11-19; known on 2014-06-30; judged right by Qiaochu on 2014-06-30.
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Brayden accepts a job offer from a company in the Bay Area that will sponsor a visa, either during or following his trip that ends June 3rd 2014 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dusk on 2014-04-30; known on 2014-06-30; judged right by dusk on 2014-06-30.
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Brayden receives a job offer from a company in the Bay Area that will sponsor a visa, either during or following his trip that ends June 3rd 2014 ( 78% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by dusk on 2014-04-30; known on 2014-06-30; judged right by dusk on 2014-06-30.
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I will get an a or a- in government for the quarter ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by cobalt on 2014-06-06; known on 2014-07-06; judged wrong by cobalt on 2014-06-30.
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I will live through the end of sophomore year. ( 99% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by cobalt on 2014-05-31; known on 2014-07-01; judged right by cobalt on 2014-06-30.
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My ia remediation is successful on the first try. ( 90% confidence )
Created by cobalt on 2014-06-08; known on 2014-06-22; judged right by cobalt on 2014-06-30.
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Martin Schulz will be the next president of the european commision. ( 39% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by nyabhingi on 2014-05-12; known on 2014-06-30; judged wrong by nyabhingi on 2014-06-30.
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This prediction will not post successfully. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by mavant on 2014-06-30; known on 2014-06-30; judged wrong by mavant on 2014-06-30.
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Predictionbook allows decimal percentages in predictions. ( 9% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by mavant on 2014-06-30; known on 2014-06-30; judged wrong by mavant on 2014-06-30.
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The MTG set M15 will include all or some of the M10/M11/M12/M13 dual lands and/or their Innistrad block counterparts. (aka the “checklands”.) ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-09-11; known on 2014-07-11; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-06-28.
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MTG: There will be an enemy colored dual land printed in a core set within the next three years. (In M15, M16, or M17.) ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by ygert on 2014-05-27; known on 2016-07-17; judged right by ygert on 2014-06-28.
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My website austingwalters.com will have 18 email subscribers by July 15 (currently at 10) ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by lettergram on 2014-06-19; known on 2014-07-15; judged right by lettergram on 2014-06-27.
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My funding campaign for a website in Irish will do horribly. ( 95% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-03-31; known on 2014-05-30; judged right by lettergram on 2014-06-27.
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I'll receive strait A's next semester. ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-02; known on 2014-06-01; judged wrong by lettergram on 2014-06-27.
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Alex will tell me that I will be promoted in December, conditional upon fulfilling Kiran's requests. ( 30% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-06-25; known on 2014-06-26; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-06-25.
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Config (short for configuration) will appear in the Merriam Webster dictionary as proper word ( 30% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by scott.arbeitman on 2009-06-24; known on 2014-06-24; judged wrong by Glenn on 2014-06-24.
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I will finish Chapter 3 of Hartl's Rails Tutorial tomorrow before midnight. ( 90% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-21; known on 2014-06-22; judged right by aarongertler on 2014-06-23.
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I will take part in the play saturday. ( 90% confidence )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-20; known on 2014-06-22; judged right by rebellionkid on 2014-06-22.
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I will have done a walk with at least 200 meters of climb, at least 3 times, by the end of 2014, carrying 30kg of weights. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-04-29; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by waveman on 2014-06-22.
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There will be a referendum on Scottish independence ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by modulus on 2012-01-09; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by scav on 2014-09-14.
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Duck Enlightenment (@jokeocracy) will be unbanned from twitter ( 24% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2014-06-15; known on 2014-12-14; judged right by Grognor on 2014-06-20.
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I will have finished the Lesswrong main sequences by June 11th 2014. ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-25; known on 2014-06-11; judged wrong by Mati on 2014-06-20.
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There will be a referendum on Scottish independence ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by modulus on 2012-01-09; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by scav on 2014-09-14.
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There will be a referendum on Scottish independence ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by modulus on 2012-01-09; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by scav on 2014-09-14.
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Russia annexes Crimea this year. ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by lettergram on 2014-03-03; known on 2015-03-03; judged right by Tuxedage on 2014-06-17.
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Dogecoin will be worth more than 1000 Satoshis ($0.00755000) by June 2014 (At 3 Jan 2014 bitcoin prices) ( 15% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2014-01-03; known on 2014-06-17; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2014-06-17.
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Dogecoin will be worth less than 40 Satoshis ($0.00036240) at June 2014. (At 3 Jan 2014 bitcoin prices) ( 50% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2014-01-03; known on 2014-06-17; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2014-06-17.
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There will be a referendum on Scottish independence ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by modulus on 2012-01-09; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by scav on 2014-09-14.
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I will get 90% or above on next week's neurobio quiz ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-06-08; known on 2014-06-14; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-06-15.
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I will get 90% or above on next week's neurobio quiz ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-06-08; known on 2014-06-14; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-06-15.
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Gamespot: Steam Box To Make Life Difficult for Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo in 2013 ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-01-06; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by dk on 2014-06-15.
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I will get out of work by 2:15pm today ( 80% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-06-13; known on 2014-06-13; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-06-15.
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There will be a referendum on Scottish independence ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by modulus on 2012-01-09; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by scav on 2014-09-14.
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“Barring an unexpected decline in human numbers from current levels, biodiversity will not reverse its downward trend, air and water pollution will not reverse their increasing trends,(all according to World Resources Institute data) and the WHO will not ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by Grognor on 2014-06-15.
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Konkvistador has obstructive sleep apnea ( 26% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-21; known on 2013-10-21; judged wrong by Grognor on 2014-06-15.
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I will give myself a two on at least one of my journals. ( 80% confidence )
Created by cobalt on 2014-06-10; known on 2014-06-17; judged right by cobalt on 2014-06-14.
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Sid Meier's Civilization TBG : Game designer will rulethat it is impossible to switch governments many times during SoT using pyramids while gaining each SoT benefits ( 95% confidence )
Created by Osuniev on 2013-09-13; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by Osuniev on 2014-06-13.