Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Hillary Clinton will announce candidacy for the 2020 US Presidential Election ( 5% confidence; 19 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-12-19; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2019-04-10.
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Senator Elizabeth Warren will enter the Democratic Primary for President in the 2020 election. ( 68% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Faceh on 2016-11-27; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2019-04-10.
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Elizabeth Warren will run for President in 2020 ( 62% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2020-10-01; judged right by JTPeterson on 2019-04-10.
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the earth will spin for the next 24 hours ( 100% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by rbutorac on 2019-04-09; known on 2019-04-10; judged right by pranomostro on 2019-04-10.
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[Politics: Israel's 2019 legislative election] to see Likud gain seats (from current 30) ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-13; known on 2019-04-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-10.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jan-Feb-Mar 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions ( 24% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-04-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-10.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jan-Feb-Mar 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-04-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-10.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jan-Feb-Mar 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-04-14; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-10.
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[Commodities: EIA's April forecast relative to March forecast will be higher for] 2019 US crude oil production ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-13; known on 2019-04-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-10.
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[Commodities: EIA's April forecast relative to March forecast will be higher for] 2020 US crude oil production ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-13; known on 2019-04-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-10.
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Within one month, MD will have concluded that JQ worked out ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2019-01-25; known on 2019-02-25; judged right by peter_hurford on 2019-04-09.
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[Politics: Israel's 2019 legislative election] to be held as scheduled on April 9, 2019 ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-13; known on 2019-04-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-09.
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I will visit Japan before 2020 ( 94% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-03; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2019-04-07.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep this week (starting the night of 2019-03-30). ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-29; known on 2019-04-06; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-04-06.
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Convincing evidence will prove that Amazon, Apple, etc.'s chips were compromised. ( 21% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by krazemon on 2018-10-06; known on 2019-04-06; judged wrong by krazemon on 2019-04-06.
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I have sex at least once in the next 3 months ( 50% confidence )
Created by playablecharacter on 2019-01-08; known on 2019-04-06; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2019-04-06.
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India's General Election for 2019 will take place after May 2019 ( 45% confidence )
Created by Nve on 2018-02-13; known on 2019-06-01; judged wrong by Nve on 2019-04-06.
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India's 2019 General Elections will be held before April 2019 ( 20% confidence )
Created by Nve on 2018-02-13; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Nve on 2019-04-06.
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[Commodities] US inventories of propane/propylene to be HIGHER at end of March than at end of February 2019 ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-04.
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The US 10y-1y yield curve will invert in 2019. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-03.
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[Conditional on no Brexit March 29, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] VIX ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-14; known on 2019-04-02; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-03.
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[Conditional on no Brexit March 29, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] GBPUSD (i.e., the pound will weaken) ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-14; known on 2019-04-02; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-03.
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[Economy] UK's Economic Policy Uncertainty Index for March 2019 to be higher than any month after July 2016 ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-04-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-02.
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[Conditional on no Brexit March 29, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] Brent crude oil ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-14; known on 2019-04-02; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-02.
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[Conditional on no Brexit March 29, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] Ethereum (Coinbase) ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-14; known on 2019-04-02; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-02.
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[Conditional on no Brexit March 29, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] Bitcoin (Coinbase) ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-14; known on 2019-04-02; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-02.
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[Conditional on no Brexit March 29, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] gold (LBMA 10:30 am) ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-14; known on 2019-04-02; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-02.
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[Personal: I exercise at least this many days in the first quarter:] 70 ( 1% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-04-01.
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[Personal: I exercise at least this many days in the first quarter:] 65 ( 50% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-04-01.
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[Personal: I exercise at least this many days in the first quarter:] 60 ( 70% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-04-01.
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[Personal: I exercise at least this many days in the first quarter:] 55 ( 75% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-04-01.
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[Personal: I exercise at least this many days in the first quarter:] 50 ( 80% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-04-01.
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[Personal: I exercise at least this many days in the first quarter:] 45 ( 85% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-04-01.
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[Personal: I exercise at least this many days in the first quarter:] 40 ( 90% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-04-01.
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I will still be using NixOS in three months ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01; known on 2019-04-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2019-04-01.
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Tech, AI – OpenAI publishes GPT-2 model weights before 2019-04-01 ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2019-02-17; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-01.
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Felix Sater gives a new explanation for his email remarks linking the engineering of Trump's election victory to a Putin-team buy-in. ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-25; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-01.
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[Economy] An OECD member to see its credit rating downgraded by S&P, Moody's, Fitch, or DBRS in 2019 Q1 ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-14; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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Taiwan to declare independence in 2019 Q1 ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-21; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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[Politics] The EU to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q1 EOQ ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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China's Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) to see at least one loan default by 2019 Q1 EOQ ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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[Politics] Canada to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q1 EOQ ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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US & China to announce end to trade war in Q1 2019. ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-09; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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[Politics] Either Juan Guaidó or Nicolás Maduro to flee Venezuela in 2019 Q1. ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-15; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in March for which data are published ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-04-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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[Estonian governing coalition] to be formed by end of March 2019 ( 50% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-04; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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All charges against Meng Wanzhou to be dropped in Q1 2019. ( 19% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-04; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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Brent crude to remain above WTI throughout 1Q19 ( 90% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-04-05; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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[The average spot price of Brent crude oil in March 2019 will be] greater than $70/barrel ( 14% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-04; known on 2019-04-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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[The average spot price of Brent crude oil in March 2019 will be] between $60 and $70/barrel ( 51% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-04; known on 2019-04-05; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-01.