Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 60% | 63% | 75% | 82% | 87% | 93% | |
Sample Size | 1292 | 1606 | 2197 | 2343 | 2286 | 671 | 10395 |
Displaying all predictions made by Cato. Filter by:
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[US politics] Both the presidential and VP nominees for the Democratic party to be women ( 10% confidence; 23 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-09; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
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North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020 ( 5% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics: The country/committee that wins the most boxing medals to be] a member of the former Soviet Union ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2021-08-09; judged right by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics: The country/committee that wins the most boxing medals to be] the United States ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2021-08-09; judged wrong by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics: The country/committee that wins the most boxing medals to be] France ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2021-08-09; judged wrong by katingand on 2021-08-09.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics: The country/committee that wins the most boxing medals to be] Cuba ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2021-08-09; judged wrong by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Pete Buttigieg to be] 0 ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-05.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Pete Buttigieg to be] 1 to 10 ( 75% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-09-11.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Pete Buttigieg to be] 11 to 20 ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Pete Buttigieg to be] 21 to 30 ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Pete Buttigieg to be] 31 to 40 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-16.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Pete Buttigieg to be] 41 to 51 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-16.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Elizabeth Warren to be] 0 ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Elizabeth Warren to be] 1 to 10 ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Elizabeth Warren to be] 11 to 20 ( 22% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Elizabeth Warren to be] 21 to 30 ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Elizabeth Warren to be] 31 to 40 ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-16.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Elizabeth Warren to be] 41 to 51 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-05.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Bernie Sanders to be] 0 ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-05.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Bernie Sanders to be] 1 to 10 ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Bernie Sanders to be] 11 to 20 ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-07-14.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Bernie Sanders to be] 21 to 30 ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Bernie Sanders to be] 31 to 40 ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-14.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Bernie Sanders to be] 41 to 51 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-05.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 0 ( 42% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 1 to 10 ( 55% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 11 to 20 ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 21 to 30 ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 31 to 40 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-16.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 41 to 51 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-05.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, not won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 0 ( 60% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, not won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 1 to 10 ( 36% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, not won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 11 to 20 ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, not won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 21 to 30 ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, not won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 31 to 40 ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-16.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, not won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 41 to 51 ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-05.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Joe Biden to be] 0 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-05.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Joe Biden to be] 1 to 10 ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-16.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Joe Biden to be] 11 to 20 ( 42% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Joe Biden to be] 21 to 30 ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Joe Biden to be] 31 to 40 ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-07-14.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Joe Biden to be] 41 to 51 ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.
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Dominican Republican presidential election to return a winner in the first round ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-07-06; judged right by Cato on 2020-07-06.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of May 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] May 2019 ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-06-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-08.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of May 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] April 2020 ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-06-10; judged right by Cato on 2020-06-08.
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[Fighting] Tony Ferguson and Khabib Nurmagomedov to fight in April 2020 ( 73% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-27; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-02.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of April 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] March 2020 ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-05-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-09.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of April 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] April 2019 ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-05-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-09.
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[Scottish independence referendum to have been formally announced & scheduled, conditional on] Brexit-with-a-deal having taken place ( 17% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2020-03-15.
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[Scottish independence referendum to have been formally announced & scheduled, conditional on] no-deal Brexit having taken place ( 35% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2020-03-15.
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[Scottish independence referendum to have been formally announced & scheduled, conditional on] UK still in EU ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2020-03-15.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of March 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] February 2020 ( 64% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-04-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-09.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of March 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] March 2019 ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-04-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-09.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of February 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] January 2020 ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-03-10; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-11.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of February 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] February 2019 ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-03-10; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-11.
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Chinese People's Liberation Army to be (overtly) deployed to Hong Kong by 2020-01-23 ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2020-01-24; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-01-25.
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[Personal] I will read at least 16 books in 2020 Q1 ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2020-01-07; known on 2020-04-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-18.
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[Personal] I will read at least 32 books in 2020 H1 ( 73% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2020-01-07; known on 2020-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-05-29.
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[Personal] I will read at least 48 books in 2020 Q1-Q3 ( 73% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2020-01-07; known on 2020-10-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Personal] I will read at least 64 books in 2020 ( 72% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2020-01-07; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of January 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] January 2019 ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-02-10; judged right by Cato on 2020-02-29.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of January 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] December 2019 ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-02-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.
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[Commodities] As of February 2020, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of January 2020 ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2020-03-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of December 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] November 2019 ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-01-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-12.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of December 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] December 2018 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-01-10; judged right by Cato on 2020-01-12.
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[Commodities] As of January 2020, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of December 2019 ( 54% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2020-02-14; judged right by Cato on 2020-02-29.
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[Commodities] As of November 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of October 2019 ( 52% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2019-12-14; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-13.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Conservatives to have gained seats in general election ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Labour to have gained seats in general election ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Democratic Unionists to have gained seats in general election ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Scottish National Party to have gained seats in general election ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Liberal Democrats to have gained seats in general election ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Independent Group for Change to have gained seats in general election ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Labour to have won a majority in general election ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Liberal Democrats to have won a majority in general election ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Conservatives to have won a majority in general election ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 13 or more ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-01; known on 2019-12-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-20.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 12 ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-01; known on 2019-12-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-20.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 11 ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-01; known on 2019-12-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-20.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 10 ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-01; known on 2019-12-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-20.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 9 ( 17% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-01; known on 2019-12-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-20.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 8 ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-01; known on 2019-12-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-20.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 7 ( 25% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-01; known on 2019-12-20; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-20.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 6 ( 13% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-01; known on 2019-12-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-20.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 5 ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-01; known on 2019-12-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-20.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 4 or fewer ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-01; known on 2019-12-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-20.
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[Macri to be re-elected president of Argentina, given USDARS] between 35 and 40 ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-10-28.
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[Macri to be re-elected president of Argentina, given USDARS] < 35 ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-10-28.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of November 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] October 2019 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-12-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-09.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of November 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] November 2018 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-12-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-09.
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[In 2020 Conor McGregor's first UFC fight to be] against someone else ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-25; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.
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[In 2020 Conor McGregor's first UFC fight to be] against Georges St-Pierre ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-25; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-21.
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[In 2020 Conor McGregor's first UFC fight to be] against Frankie Edgar ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-25; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.
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[In 2020 Conor McGregor's first UFC fight to be] against Tony Ferguson ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-25; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.
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[In 2020 Conor McGregor's first UFC fight to be] against Khabib Numagomedov ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-25; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.
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[In 2020 Conor McGregor's first UFC fight to be] against Jorge Masvidal ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-25; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.
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[In 2020 Conor McGregor's first UFC fight to be] against Nate Diaz ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-25; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.
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[In 2020 Conor McGregor's first UFC fight to be] against Justin Gaethje ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-25; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.
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[In 2020 Conor McGregor's first UFC fight to be] against Donald Cerrone ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-25; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-02-29.
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[Prizes] A Chinese citizen to win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-12.