Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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I will email Beth and one other person about my project today ( 90% confidence )
Created by Soren on 2022-07-15; known on 2022-07-16; judged wrong by Soren on 2022-07-16.
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Politics, US – Supreme Court overturns Roe vs Wade before the end of 2022. ( 72% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-16; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-07-11.
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NIST standardizes Kyber and Dilithium ( 70% confidence )
Created by sam_jaques on 2020-08-14; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by sam_jaques on 2022-07-05.
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A bill to legalise Marijuana is passed in France before the end of June ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Andref2015 on 2021-12-08; known on 2022-06-16; judged wrong by Leo on 2022-07-05.
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Barnes & Noble still exists and operates at least 10 book stores ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Leo on 2019-07-05; known on 2022-07-05; judged right by Leo on 2022-07-05.
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Tech – There is strongly implicating evidence that someone did something causing the loss of >=1 QALY of life in order to profit on Manifold Markets by deadline ( 3% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-17; known on 2022-07-02; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-07-03.
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Valve will release True Sight for The International 10 on or before June 30, 2022 ( 80% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2022-04-21; known on 2022-07-01; judged wrong by jacobgreenleaf on 2022-07-02.
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ULA's Vulcan rocket to launch by July 1, 2022 ( 72% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-08-24; known on 2022-07-02; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-07-02.
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I will pass Italian B1 language by mid 2022 ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2020-01-01; known on 2022-07-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2022-07-02.
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Russia seizes all of Luhansk ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-06-12; known on 2022-06-30; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-07-01.
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Mind Management, Not Time Management will cross the 20,000-copies-sold threshold by the end of July 2022. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kadavy on 2022-06-24; known on 2022-08-01; judged wrong by kadavy on 2022-08-01.
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Politics, US – Supreme Court rule in favor of the State of Mississippi Department of Health in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, thereby colloquially, “Overturning Roe v. Wade” ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-16; known on 2022-05-19; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-07-01.
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World – Will the US militarily engage Russia by July 1st 2022? ( 5% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-07-01.
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Politics, US – Will the US announce intent to allow any Ukrainian citizen who reach its borders to stay until Russia is no longer attacking or occupying Ukraine, before July 1st 2022? ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-07-01.
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Tech – Will Beeminder deem it prudent to make it harder to turn No-Excuses Mode back off after you opt in to it, by deadline? ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-05-06; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-07-01.
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I will be using Linux in 10 years ( 69% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-06-28; known on 2022-06-28; judged right by gwern on 2022-06-29.
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I will be using Emacs in 10 years ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-06-28; known on 2022-06-28; judged right by gwern on 2022-06-29.
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I will be using Firefox in 10 years ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-06-28; known on 2022-06-28; judged right by gwern on 2022-06-29.
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I will be using Bash in 10 years ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-06-28; known on 2022-06-28; judged right by gwern on 2022-06-29.
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Bipartisan gun control legislation passed by the US Senate ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-06-12; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-06-24.
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Google's WebP image format will be unsuccessful. ( 92% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-30; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2022-06-22.
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I will have a positive covid test in the next five days. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-06-10; known on 2022-06-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-06-16.
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Chesa Boudin will be recalled ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-08-26; known on 2022-06-08; judged right by jacobgreenleaf on 2022-06-12.
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Head of state of a major developed country will be assassinated ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-06; known on 2022-06-06; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2022-06-07.
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Alex Honnold will be alive 5 years from now ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by berekuk on 2017-06-07; known on 2022-06-07; judged right by chemotaxis101 on 2022-06-07.
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By June 2022, I judge that Human Challenge Trials are attributable to making the date I personally get a COVID-19 vaccine earlier than it otherwise would've been without Human Challenge Trials ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-06-20; known on 2022-06-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2022-06-06.
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2205044051 TRẦN MINH TUY u hố lưỡi thanh thiệt ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-25; known on 2022-06-08; judged right by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-06-03.
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2205044051 TRẦN MINH TUY u hố lưỡi thanh thiệt ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-25; known on 2022-06-08; judged right by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-06-03.
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twitter will not have the ability to view “latest tweets” (chronological timeline) from the web app on june 1 2022 ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by finback on 2020-09-09; known on 2022-06-02; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-06-03.
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As a normal member of the public, if you visit America (California, etc.) you will be able to order a lift service (Uber, etc.) without a human driver at the wheel, for a price similar to the rates of current lift services, adjusted for inflation. ( 57% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Emmanuel M. Smith on 2017-05-26; known on 2022-06-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-06-03.
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Macron will not be re-elected as French President. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by phistr on 2018-04-08; known on 2022-06-30; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2022-06-02.
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paulinho será eleito para a seleção do paulistão ( 68% confidence )
Created by eduardomarciano on 2022-01-29; known on 2022-06-16; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2022-06-02.
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internacional não será campeão gaúcho ( 87% confidence )
Created by eduardomarciano on 2022-01-29; known on 2022-06-16; judged right by chemotaxis101 on 2022-06-02.
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fluminense será campeão carioca ( 77% confidence )
Created by eduardomarciano on 2022-01-29; known on 2022-06-16; judged right by chemotaxis101 on 2022-06-02.
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Danes will vote yes to abolish Denmark's opt-out from EU's common security and defense policy ( 70% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-07; known on 2022-06-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-06-01.
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Amber Heard will be found liable for defaming Johnny Depp ( 50% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-05-20; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-06-01.
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An earthquake measuring 8.0 or above will occur anywhere on Earth before June 1, 2022 ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-17; known on 2022-06-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-06-01.
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2205042200 VŨ DUY VỊNH Hình ảnh u thận phải, có phần thải thuốc và có vỏ- nghĩ đến RCC. Nang nhỏ thận phải. Nang nhỏ gan. Theo dõi sỏi thận trái ( 50% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-26; known on 2022-06-16; judged wrong by PowerPho on 2022-05-29.
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2205043310 Hamartoma hạ đồi ( 70% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-26; known on 2022-06-09; judged wrong by PowerPho on 2022-05-29.
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220504464 pilocystic astrocytoma tiểu não phải ( 70% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-25; known on 2022-06-08; judged wrong by PowerPho on 2022-05-29.
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2205041948 ung thư hay viêm tiền liệt tuyến ( 50% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-25; known on 2022-06-15; judged wrong by PowerPho on 2022-05-29.
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2205020046 Hình ảnh khối u sùi lớn trực tràng giữa, có nhiều hạch lân cận, chưa xâm lấn cân trực tràng, theo dõi xâm lấn mạch máu (T3cN2Mx, MRF (-), EMVI (+)). ( 50% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-25; known on 2022-06-08; judged wrong by PowerPho on 2022-05-29.
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2201007768 Hình ảnh u trực tràng thấp, chưa xâm lấn cân trực tràng, mạch máu, có nhiều hạch trong và ngoài cân trực tràng (T3bN2Mx, MRF (-), EMVI (-)) ( 70% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-25; known on 2022-06-08; judged wrong by PowerPho on 2022-05-29.
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2205044054 Rò hậu môn áp xe gian cơ thắt, lỗ trong 6h ( 70% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-25; known on 2022-06-08; judged wrong by PowerPho on 2022-05-29.
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2205044051 TRẦN MINH TUY u hố lưỡi thanh thiệt ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-05-25; known on 2022-06-08; judged right by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2022-06-03.
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I will have taken the Pledge ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-05-17; known on 2023-01-16; judged right by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-05-27.
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User Clouduknguyen_95 will realize that their predictions have been 'griefed' and will not make another public prediction related to medicine before June 25th ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-05-25; known on 2022-06-25; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-05-27.
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France will give up it's nuclear arsenal, france has 0 nuclear weapons left with no intent on acquiring them. ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-06; known on 2022-06-06; judged wrong by amadeu on 2022-05-26.
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The Renminbi will eclipse the US dollar as Reserve Currency in 2022. Central banks will hold their reserves in renminbi instead of the USD as they currently do. The USD will be No2 instead of No1. The IMF will be the source of data. ( 15% confidence; 14 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-17; known on 2022-05-28; judged wrong by amadeu on 2022-05-26.
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[Australian Politics] The Australian Labor Party will win the next Federal Election ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jeefy01 on 2019-06-12; known on 2022-05-30; judged right by amadeu on 2022-05-26.