Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 65% | 67% | 73% | 88% | 91% | 80% | |
Sample Size | 1033 | 269 | 129 | 197 | 347 | 45 | 2020 |
Displaying all predictions made by themusicgod1. Filter by:
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NDP full wipe out in Saskatchewan Provincial Election 2016 ( 24% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-16; known on 2016-06-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-05.
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Sask Party Minority in Saskatchewan Provincial Election 2016 ( 15% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-16; known on 2016-06-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-05.
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Sask Party Majority Government in Saskatchewan Provincial Election 2016 ( 84% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-16; known on 2016-06-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-05.
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Peter Todd will agree Ripple Labs has released all necessary source code, including all validator code, to be “Open Source” ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-16; known on 2018-01-01; judged unknown by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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I will replace my laptop in 2017. ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-16; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-09.
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Warren Buffet will claim that the “weapons of financial mass destruction” have executed in 2017: financial derivatives cause major problem worldwide. ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-16; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
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John Kasich will win the Republican nomination for President ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ChristianKl on 2016-03-16; known on 2016-08-26; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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Lee Sedol will win the final game against AlphaGo ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by waveman on 2016-03-15; known on 2016-03-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-15.
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The fifth match with AlphaGo will go to the end game (as described by the commentators), and then AlphaGo will resign. ( 38% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by regex on 2016-03-15; known on 2016-03-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-15.
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Guy who charged stage at trump rally below is not actually a secret trump plant. ( https://twitter.com/virtadpt/status/709184534995075072 ) ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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World Champion of Go will defeat Google's AI ( 28% confidence; 9 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by artir on 2016-03-08; known on 2016-03-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-12.
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AlphaGo will win the 5th match against Lee Sedol ( 68% confidence; 12 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by artir on 2016-03-13; known on 2016-03-16; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-15.
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Vancouver power grid does not have a crisis in summer 2016 ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-12; known on 2016-11-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-30.
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no more blizzards in march in #tbay ( 59% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-12; known on 2016-04-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-01.
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No snow in may in #tbay ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-12; known on 2016-06-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-14.
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There will be a relevant (>10% vote in any election) third political party in the US before the end of 2018. ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by artir on 2016-03-12; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by artir on 2018-12-31.
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Lee Sedol attempts suicide ( 1% confidence; 21 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-12; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Assuming I get the job, I will have to be evacuated at some point this year due to forest fire ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-11; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-14.
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Assuming I start the new job successfully, after one year from the first day of work I will find it a more rewarding use of my life than my old contracting job, well worth quitting for ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-11; known on 2017-09-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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I will acquire the 2 needed prerequisites to start work at my new job without incident ( 59% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-11; known on 2016-07-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-23.
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By 2025, China's yuan will be backed by gold. ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by danpop on 2016-03-11; known on 2025-01-01.
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AlphaGo will beat any human it plays for the next 2 years(no handicap games). ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-11; known on 2018-12-16; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-13.
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Ke Jie loses to AlphaGo ( 87% confidence; 15 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-08.
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Gary Johnson to get > 5% of the vote in 2016 ( 40% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-03-11; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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AlphaGo will beat Lee Sodol in the three remaining matches of their initial 5. ( 74% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by earthbound01 on 2016-03-11; known on 2016-03-15; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-13.
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Halbig case does not get heard by US supreme court ( 51% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-11; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by HonoreDB on 2020-01-02.
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I will not get SJS from modafinil ( 95% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RoryS on 2016-03-10; known on 2017-10-03; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-22.
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Obama leaves the White House with an approval rating of 55 or higher. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-10; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2017-02-02.
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Obama leaves the White House with an approval rating of 60 or higher. ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-10; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by prtlmpf on 2017-07-12.
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Barack Obama leaves the White House with an approval rating ≥ 50. (Favorable/Unfavorable) ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-10; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Hillary Clinton will win the democratic nomination ( 88% confidence; 30 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sole21000 on 2016-03-09; known on 2016-07-26; judged right by grogo on 2016-07-26.
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Alphago will win over Lee Sedol at least 4-1 ( 81% confidence; 17 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by sole21000 on 2016-03-09; known on 2016-03-14; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-15.
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Romney is GOP nominee. ( 2% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-08; known on 2016-11-16; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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Romney runs third party. ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-08; known on 2016-11-16; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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Bitcoin price reaches $500 before June 2016 (1 BTC ≥ 500 USD) ( 41% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-22; known on 2016-06-01; judged right by jesselevine on 2016-06-01.
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There will be a commercial house cleaning robots (like a Roomba) that can go to specific parts of the house and clean those parts. ( 17% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-30.
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Full (infant) human mind provably fully simulatable on any amount of extant hardware ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.
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Bachar el Assad will lose power before the end of 2016 ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by leo_gri on 2016-03-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-01.
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Boko Haram will be defeated this year. ( 44% confidence; 5 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-06; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-12-25.
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Trump Republicans split from GOP to start a third party. ( 10% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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Establishment Republicans split from GOP and start a third party. ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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I will finish the math for 3rd year physics by end 2016. This includes linear algebra, group theory, Hamiltonian and Lagrangian formulations of classical mechanics, Hilbert Spaces, and full and partial differential equations. ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by waveman on 2016-03-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2017-01-02.
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North American oil industry will collapse. Rig count will fall to zero. ( 7% confidence; 29 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-04; known on 2016-09-25; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-25.
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On Jan 1, 2017 there will be at most 3871377.25 bitcoin in addresses that have not been dormant for over a year ( 33% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-03; known on 2018-01-01.
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US mandates backdoors in all crypto used on continental US ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.
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This prediction will be judged “Wrong”. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-03-04.
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https://classic.ripplepay.com does does not survive 2016 ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.
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HTML5.1 goes to PR/Rec status at w3c, complete with DRM/EME ( 33% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.
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Christie disavows support for Donald Trump before the election. ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-02; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Trump selects Christie as his running mate. ( 19% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-02; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-15.
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Bitcoin network survives to block halving. ( 99% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-02; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-03.
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Cabinet appointment for Bernie Sanders. ( 20% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-02; known on 2017-03-02; judged wrong by ospond on 2017-03-06.
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> 0.77% of global energy produced from solar (thermal or electricity both count) ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-02; known on 2017-03-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-08.
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Intel releases new socket standard/type in 2016 ( 52% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-02; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.
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Gender gap in software industry worse in 2016 than 2009. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-02; known on 2017-06-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-17.
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More and better quality medical research happens in 2016 vs. 2015 ( 90% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-02; known on 2018-01-01.
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Real ID act goes into phase iv, DHS REALID system forces all states to participate or bans citizens of them from international travel ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-02; known on 2017-01-01.
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Funding Circle profitable by end of 2016 ( 53% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-02; known on 2017-04-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-03.
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2016 global climate change reaches +10 degrees Celsius relative to 1996 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-02; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.
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3 billion Android users at any point in 2016 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-02; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by bendini on 2017-01-01.
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Exactly two candidates will get greater than 10% of the popular vote in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. ( 74% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by HonoreDB on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-11-10; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Exactly three candidates will get greater than 10% of the popular vote in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Bernie will remain in the race through the District of Columbia primary. ( 44% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-06-14; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-06-14.
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Bernie will drop out before California primary. ( 25% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-06-07; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2016-06-08.
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Bernie will drop out before New York primary. ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-04-19; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-04-19.
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Bernie will drop out before Ohio & Florida primaries. ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-03-16; judged wrong by Temeraire on 2016-03-16.
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Not only does 9th planet exist, but 10th planet hiding in the Kuiper belt somewhere too ( 66% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-02-29; known on 2266-01-01.
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Over 30,000 people will take the life you can save pledge by Dec 31, 2016 ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by commercecat on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-31.
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Kasich will drop out of the republican primary race before March 3rd ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by silacoid on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-03-03; judged wrong by silacoid on 2016-03-03.
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SpaceX to successfully launch SES satellite by April 1, 2016 ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-04-02; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-05.
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Sanders will win the Democratic nomination ( 21% confidence; 29 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by LawrenceNewport on 2016-02-26; known on 2016-06-14; judged wrong by LawrenceNewport on 2016-06-14.
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Facebook will either remove the negative-valence expanded reaction buttons, or in some way allow people to de-activate the option for their own posts, by the end of 2016 ( 28% confidence; 17 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Temeraire on 2016-02-25; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Trump will win the Republican nomination ( 70% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by LawrenceNewport on 2016-02-24; known on 2016-06-07; judged right by LawrenceNewport on 2016-06-14.
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The UK will stay in the EU ( 67% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by spinkley on 2016-02-24; known on 2016-06-24; judged wrong by Reactionaryhistorian on 2016-06-24.
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Guantanamo Bay detention facility to close before year end. ( 18% confidence; 12 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-23; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-31.
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A terrorist attack or series of terrorist attacks ordered by Kim Jong Un on South Korean & possibly Japanese targets including public transportation, power plants and on individual disidents or critics will happen some time in 2016 – possibly within 90d. ( 22% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by amexfireplace on 2016-02-23; known on 2016-11-30; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-12-03.
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Largest bitcoin exchange by volume over dec 2016 will be a chinese one / btcCNY* ( 96% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-02-23; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.
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The British Conservative Party will win the next UK general election with an outright majority of MPs (not conditional on election date) ( 62% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Waring on 2016-02-11; known on 2020-05-10; judged wrong by Waring on 2017-08-03.
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Another 3+/-1 M$ goes into copyright board of canada in 2016 ( 99% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-02-22; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-31.
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@realDonaldTrump will be suspended from Twitter for a week or longer before 2017 ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-22; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-31.
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@paxdickinson will be suspended from Twitter for a week or longer before 2017 ( 53% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-22; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-04.
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TTC makes its goal of 7$M more from metropass users in 2016. ( 60% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-02-22; known on 2017-06-01.
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Russian Federation < 100 B Foreign Exchange reserves ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-02-22; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-02.
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Kim Jung Un ousted, assassinated, or somehow loses power of North Korea, either internally or from some international influence before year end. ( 9% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-22; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Conditional on Brexit, Boris Johnson will be the next British Prime Minister. ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Waring on 2016-02-22; known on 2017-06-01; judged wrong by Waring on 2016-06-30.
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No terrorist attack in the USA will kill > 100 people during 2016 ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Temeraire on 2016-02-22; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by leo_gri on 2017-01-01.
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I will not have eaten any meat intentionally for the next 30 years, starting now ( 29% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by arpanagarawal on 2016-02-21; known on 2046-02-21; judged wrong by Sahil on 2019-04-25.
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Michael Bloomberg wins the 2016 presidential election. ( 1% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-21; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Michael Bloomberg to enter the 2016 US presidential election as a candidate. ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-21; known on 2016-04-21; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-03-08.
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Land a robot on the Moon by 2017 for the Google Lunar X prize —Rahul Narayan, CEO of Team Indus, Bharat ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-18; known on 2017-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-27.
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The price of a US postage stamp (1-ounce letter) will not increase within the next year. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-17; known on 2017-02-17; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-02-18.
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Another supreme court justice will die during Obama's presidency. ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-17; known on 2017-01-20; judged wrong by Faceh on 2017-01-20.
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Italy will default on its debt by 2022. ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-16; known on 2022-12-25; judged wrong by qznc on 2022-01-02.
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Spain will default on its debt by 2022. ( 39% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-16; known on 2022-12-25.
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President Bernie Sanders Assassinated ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-02-16; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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Kanye West will be U.S. President-elect before 2025 ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-14; known on 2025-01-01.
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Federal Reserve will cut the Federal Funds rate to below zero levels (i.e. a range that includes below zero levels) at or before the March 2016 FOMC meeting. ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by equivrel-markets on 2016-02-14; known on 2016-03-17; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-17.
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Federal Reserve will cut the Federal Funds rate to the [0, 0.25%] range at or before the March 2016 FOMC meeting. ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by equivrel-markets on 2016-02-14; known on 2016-03-17; judged wrong by equivrel-markets on 2016-03-17.
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There will be at least nine more gravitational wave detections announced in 2016 ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-01-01.
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There will be at least eight more gravitational wave detections announced in 2016 ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-01-01.