Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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The TV show “Grimm” will be canceled in it's first season. ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sdenheyer on 2011-10-22; known on 2012-08-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-07.
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I will not end up buying premium cat food tomorrow… and my mew mews' have to eat supermarket grade food for the day.. ( 5% confidence )
Created by williamycai on 2012-09-06; known on 2012-09-08; judged wrong by williamycai on 2012-09-07.
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I won't use Facebook until Friday. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-02; known on 2012-09-08; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-07.
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DNB/nicotine day 8: active? ( 60% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2012-09-07; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-07.
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Titan Mare Explorer (TiME) will be chosen as next NASA Discovery standalone mission. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-08-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-06.
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I will complete The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Statistics within the next 5 weeks. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03; known on 2012-08-07; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-06.
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I will complete The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Statistics within the next 7 weeks. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03; known on 2012-08-21; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-06.
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I will complete Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty within the next 120 days. ( 45% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-03; known on 2012-08-31; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-06.
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Kevin will not end up going to police academy of any sort within this year, ( 75% confidence )
Created by williamycai on 2012-03-28; known on 2013-01-16; judged right by williamycai on 2012-09-06.
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Bloom & Speak Bilingual Tx will turn an accounting profit before 09/2012. ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-08; known on 2012-09-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-06.
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There will be 100 or more comments on our new site within 2 months of it launching ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-27; known on 2012-10-26; judged wrong by williamycai on 2012-09-06.
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I will spend more than 24 hrs in total in the studios between now and assignment due date. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by williamycai on 2012-04-03; known on 2012-12-04; judged wrong by williamycai on 2012-09-06.
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Bloom & Speak Bilingual Tx will turn an economic profit before 09/2012. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-08; known on 2012-09-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-06.
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I will complete Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 2 months. ( 33% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03; known on 2012-09-03; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-06.
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DNB/nicotine day 7: active? ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-06; known on 2012-09-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-06.
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The show “Pan Am” will not be canceled during it's first season. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sdenheyer on 2011-10-22; known on 2012-08-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-05.
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Steve R. and I will have produced at least one dubstep song within the next six months. ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-14; known on 2012-03-14; judged wrong by Will Newsome on 2012-09-05.
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My “Master Deck” for Anki will exceed 3,500 flash cards before September, 2012. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-20; known on 2012-09-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-05.
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pirateat40 will win his bet with vandroiy that BTCST will not default, as judged by nanotube ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-07-08; known on 2012-09-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-05.
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Greece will not default on or shave its bondholders. —Stefan Homburg ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2012-06-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-05.
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(All) Wikipedias' total editor base will be >=95,000 in June 2012. ( 30% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2012-08-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-04.
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The “Counterexamples to Relativity” page will still exist on Conservapedia in one year ( 92% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2012-09-04; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-09-04.
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The Richard Dawkins article on Conservapedia will in one year have in its stable form a picture of at least one of Hitler, Stalin, or Lenin ( 81% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2012-09-04; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-09-04.
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PZ Myers will still identify as an atheist in one year. ( 98% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2012-09-04; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-09-04.
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lukeprog will make >2 predictions on PB during 2012. ( 64% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-04.
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By default, the Command Prompt in Windows 8 RTM will be resizable (to an increase in width) by dragging the corner resizer. ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-09; known on 2012-08-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-03.
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Akin will quit before 1st September 2012 ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2012-09-01; judged wrong by tedks on 2012-09-03.
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Sarah Palin will not be the Republican nominee for president of the United States in 2012 ( 80% confidence; 25 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-09-16; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-03.
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“[Hillary] Clinton will be Obama's running mate” ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-10; known on 2012-09-03; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-03.
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DNB/nicotine day 6: active? ( 45% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-03; known on 2012-09-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-03.
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Weight will be cheaper then square feet ( 75% confidence )
Created by Zach Aletheia on 2012-09-02; known on 2012-09-02; judged right by Zach Aletheia on 2012-09-02.
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GJP: #1047 Will a foreign or multinational military force fire on, invade, or enter Iran before 1 September 2012? ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-14; known on 2012-09-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-01.
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DNB/nicotine day 5: active? ( 35% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-01; known on 2012-09-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-01.
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Fed will announce QE3 at Jackson Hole conference ( 35% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-27; known on 2012-09-05; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-08-31.
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DNB/nicotine day 4: active? ( 60% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-31; known on 2012-08-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-08-31.
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“Gary Johnson to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012” —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-08-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-30.
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'John Bolton to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012' ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-08-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-30.
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“Michele Bachmann to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012” —Intrade ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-08-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-30.
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“Ron Paul to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012” —Intrade ( 13% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-08-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-30.
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Isaac will be upgraded to a hurricane ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-28; known on 2012-09-15; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-08-29.
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I will finish and be happy with my rough draft of my Stanford essay by tomorrow evening. ( 55% confidence )
Created by Christopher on 2012-08-28; known on 2012-08-29; judged right by Christopher on 2012-08-29.
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Writing about my English teacher will be the idea I stick with for my Stanford essay. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Christopher on 2012-08-28; known on 2012-08-29; judged wrong by Christopher on 2012-08-29.
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DNB/nicotine day 3: active? ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-28; known on 2012-08-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.
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Grognor will record >20 days of sleep quality data with melatonin use ( 45% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-05-31; known on 2012-08-31; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-08-28.
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Tech Thoughts: Google Nexus 7 to sell 6-8 million units in 2012 ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-28; known on 2013-01-31; judged wrong by roxton on 2013-01-11.
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“By 2012 scientists will not have developed an explanation for how images on the Shroud of Turin came to be on the cloth -an explanation that satisfies all of the physical and chemical properties of the images and does not violate basic laws of physics.” ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.
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Australia will not have car factories by the end of the current recession. —Clive Matthew-Wilson ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-09; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.
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“Holden will be the first car-maker to close its Australian factories during the current recession.” —Clive Matthew-Wilson ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-09; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-08-28.
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'Groupon goes on a buying binge & hits $3B in gross sales.' in 2011 —Brian Breslin ( 40% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-29; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-08-28.
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'However, Android's gains will mostly be at the low end of the market; the iPhone will continue to outsell any single Android smartphone model by a wide margin.' —FtT ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-14; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-08-28.