Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 50% | 100% | 67% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
Displaying all predictions made by berekuk. Filter by:
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Alex Honnold will be alive 5 years from now ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by berekuk on 2017-06-07; known on 2022-06-07; judged right by chemotaxis101 on 2022-06-07.
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LessWrong.ru Slack chat won't move from Slack to another platform until June 2017 ( 80% confidence )
Created by berekuk on 2016-09-30; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by berekuk on 2017-06-01.
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We'll conduct the third applied rationality workshop in Kocherga in October or November 2016 ( 80% confidence )
Created by berekuk on 2016-09-30; known on 2016-12-01; judged right by berekuk on 2016-12-01.
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I'll conduct a training on nonviolent communication for 6+ people in October 2016 ( 90% confidence )
Created by berekuk on 2016-09-30; known on 2016-11-01; judged wrong by berekuk on 2016-11-01.
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We won't hire any new admins for Kocherga club in 2016 ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by berekuk on 2016-09-30; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by berekuk on 2016-10-21.
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Rationalist club Kocherga won't shut down in 2016 ( 70% confidence )
Created by berekuk on 2016-09-30; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by berekuk on 2017-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry had a hand in the disappearance of Hermione's corpse. ( 80% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-18; known on 2015-06-23; judged right by Roxolan on 2015-03-01.
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Elon Musk's hyperloop method of transportation will not be an underground solution. ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by zpinter on 2013-07-15; known on 2013-09-01; judged right by zpinter on 2013-08-12.