Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 100% | 75% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
Displaying all predictions made by Lyaer. Filter by:
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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The world will not end before 2050 ( 89% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Lyaer on 2012-08-18; known on 2050-01-02.
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George R. R. Martin's The Winds of Winter will not be released before 2016 ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Lyaer on 2012-08-18; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2016-01-01.