Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 60% | 63% | 75% | 82% | 87% | 93% | |
Sample Size | 1292 | 1606 | 2197 | 2343 | 2286 | 671 | 10395 |
Displaying all predictions made by Cato. Filter by:
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All US-China trade war tariffs (imposed since June 2018) are not in effect ( 45% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-07-01.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] ASX 200 (now 6607) ( 45% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] Hang Seng (now 26307) ( 52% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] KOSPI (now 2049) ( 51% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged right by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] OMX Tallinn (now 1236) ( 52% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] SSI Shanghai (now 2973) ( 46% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged right by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] FTSE 100 (now 7187) ( 43% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-03.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] CAC 40 (now 5628) ( 48% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] NIKKEI 225 (now 21801) ( 54% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-03.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] NSE-All Share Nigeria (now 26584) ( 46% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] DJIA (now 26756) ( 48% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[US politics] Andrew Yang to participate in the fifth Democratic primary debate (November 2019) ( 57% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-26; known on 2019-11-21; judged right by Cato on 2019-11-21.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of October 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] October 2018 ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-11-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-11-05.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of October 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] September 2019 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-11-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-05.
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[Donald Trump to remain president of the US, conditional on Dow Jones being] over 30,000 ( 95% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-10-01.
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[Donald Trump to remain president of the US, conditional on Dow Jones being] between 20,000 and 26,000 ( 90% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-10-01.
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[Donald Trump to remain president of the US, conditional on Dow Jones being] under 20,000 ( 83% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-10-01.
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[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be Canadian ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known on 2020-10-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be Australian ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known on 2020-10-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be Japanese ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known on 2020-10-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be Chinese ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known on 2020-10-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be Norwegian ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known on 2020-10-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be Swedish ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known on 2020-10-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be British ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known on 2020-10-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be French ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known on 2020-10-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] No winner to be American ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known on 2020-10-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be American ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known on 2020-10-20; judged right by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] More than one winner ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known on 2020-10-20; judged right by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] 20 or more ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 19 ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 18 ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 17 ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-08.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 16 ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-08.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 15 ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-07.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 14 ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-07.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 13 ( 11% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-06.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 12 ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 11 ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] 10 or fewer ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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[Scottish independence referendum to have been formally announced & scheduled, conditional on] UK out of EU ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2020-03-15; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-16.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 13 or more ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2019-11-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-21.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 12 ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2019-11-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-21.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 11 ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2019-11-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-21.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 10 ( 24% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2019-11-30; judged right by Cato on 2019-11-21.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 9 ( 30% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2019-11-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-21.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 8 ( 30% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2019-11-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-21.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 7 ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2019-11-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-21.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 6 ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2019-11-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-21.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 5 ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2019-11-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-21.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 4 ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2019-11-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-21.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 3 or fewer ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2019-11-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-21.
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Reddit is blocked in the PRC as of 2020-10-29 ( 89% confidence; 17 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-10-29; judged right by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Fighting] Rico Verhoeven and Badr Hari to fight as scheduled on 2019-12-21 ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-12-22; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-23.
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US Economy: Bureau of Economic Analysis to have announced that US quarter-on-quarter GDP growth was negative for any quarter between 2019 Q1 and 2020 Q3. ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-10-22; judged right by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4500 ( 25% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-10-27; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4400 ( 43% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-10-27; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4300 ( 68% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-10-27; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4200 ( 81% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-10-27; judged right by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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UFC, Bellator, or ONE fighters to belong to a labor union ( 24% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-10-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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US Politics: Republican nominee for Vice President to be Mike Pence ( 73% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-08-27; judged right by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
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[US FOMC June 2020 rate decision to be] leave rate unchanged ( 54% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-06-11; judged right by Cato on 2020-06-11.
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[US FOMC June 2020 rate decision to be] reduce rate ( 36% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-06-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
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[US FOMC June 2020 rate decision to be] raise rate ( 6% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-06-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
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[US FOMC July 2020 rate decision to be] leave rate unchanged ( 52% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-07-30; judged right by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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[US FOMC July 2020 rate decision to be] reduce rate ( 37% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-07-30; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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[US FOMC July 2020 rate decision to be] raise rate ( 9% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-07-30; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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[US FOMC September 2020 rate decision to be] leave rate unchanged ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-09-17; judged right by arrowinthedark on 2020-09-17.
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[US FOMC September 2020 rate decision to be] reduce rate ( 39% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-09-17; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-09-17.
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[US FOMC September 2020 rate decision to be] raise rate ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-09-17; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-09-17.
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[US FOMC April 2020 rate decision to be] leave rate unchanged ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-04-30; judged right by Cato on 2020-05-02.
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[US FOMC April 2020 rate decision to be] reduce rate ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-04-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-02.
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[US FOMC April 2020 rate decision to be] raise rate ( 6% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-04-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-02.
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[US FOMC January 2020 rate decision to be] leave rate unchanged ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-01-30; judged right by Cato on 2020-02-29.
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[US FOMC January 2020 rate decision to be] reduce rate ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-01-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.
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[US FOMC January 2020 rate decision to be] raise rate ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-01-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.
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[US FOMC March 2020 rate decision to be] leave rate unchanged ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-03-19; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-19.
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[US FOMC March 2020 rate decision to be] reduce rate ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-03-19; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-19.
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[US FOMC March 2020 rate decision to be] raise rate ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-03-19; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-19.
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Turkey to have announced withdrawal from NATO ( 15% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-29; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-29.
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[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] any other candidate ( 7% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Julian Castro ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Beto O'Rourke ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Amy Klobuchar ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Cory Booker ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Pete Buttigieg ( 8% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Kamala Harris ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Andrew Yang ( 4% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Bernie Sanders ( 20% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Elizabeth Warren ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Joe Biden ( 41% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04; judged right by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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WTI crude futures to have been in contango on average in March 2020 (i.e., M4 > M1) ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-07; judged right by Cato on 2020-04-09.
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WTI crude futures to have been in contango on average in February 2020 (i.e., M4 > M1) ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-07; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-05.
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WTI crude futures to have been in contango on average in January 2020 (i.e., M4 > M1) ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.
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Politics: South Korea's Democratic Party (Minjoo) to retain its plurality in the National Assembly after 2020 election ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-16; judged right by Cato on 2020-04-16.
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LVŽS to retain its plurality in Lithuania's parliament after 2020 election ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-10-26; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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Chuukese independence referendum to be held in March 2020 ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-02.
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[US Democratic primary: Montana winner to be] any other candidate ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-06-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.
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[US Democratic primary: Montana winner to be] Amy Klobuchar ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-06-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.
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[US Democratic primary: Montana winner to be] Julian Castro ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-06-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.
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[US Democratic primary: Montana winner to be] Beto O'Rourke ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-06-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.