Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 52% | 70% | 74% | 67% | 85% | 98% | |
Sample Size | 94 | 50 | 53 | 79 | 294 | 46 | 616 |
Displaying all predictions made by two2thehead. Filter by:
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No military coup / martial law / continuity of government takeover in the U.S before 2017-06-01 ( 94% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by pkfalu92 on 2017-06-01.
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On 2017-06-01, Bitcoin is still the cryptocurrency with the highest market cap ( 77% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-01.
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The Kim Kardashian kidnap/heist story is completely or mostly false. ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by bendini on 2016-10-03; known on 2016-10-10; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-10-10.
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Nuclear weapon used by India or Pakistan on military target, at least 2 casualties ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-30; known on 2016-12-30; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-12-30.
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Hillary next US president ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by penten on 2016-09-29; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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A new ministry will be created in the Russian government. ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-09-22; known on 2019-09-22.
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Hillary will win the presidency ( 66% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by nelson.horsley@gmail.com on 2016-09-18; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
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Major (>100 death toll) terrorist attack in Europe (all present and past EEA members) this year. ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-02.
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Hillary Clinton drops out of the presidential race due to health reasons ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-12; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
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4% of world economy is cryptocurrency governed ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-11; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-01-31.
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Hillary Clinton will win the presidential election ( 71% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by ytarko on 2016-09-01; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by bendini on 2016-11-09.
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at least one of the following survives 2017: SEPA, Visa, Mastercard, US federal reserve, ECB, Deutsche Bank ( 99% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Some technology invented after 2017 that actually scares me. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-29; known on 2022-12-31.
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hillary clinton wins the US presidential race ( 69% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jal278 on 2016-08-23; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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I will buy an NVIDIA graphics card before 2018 ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-08-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-03-21.
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Barack Obama will start serving a consecutive third term as President of the United States, or otherwise remain in office as President on March 1, 2017 ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-08-21; known on 2017-03-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-03-02.
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Throughout 2020, 100% of movies to come out of hollywood will be reboots of old series, only with the genders swapped ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-10.
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this computer will boot after successful upgrade from ubuntu 15.10 to 16.04 ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-16; known on 2016-08-17; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-17.
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Hillary Clinton will win the United States' Presidential race ( 67% confidence; 15 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by BigRaims on 2016-08-16; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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The winner of the 2016 presidential election will recieve over 400 EVs ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-08-10; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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There will be at least five polls between the DNC and 2017 where Clinton beats Trump by at least ten points. ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-08-06; known on 2017-02-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-10-10.
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Trump will drop out of the Presidential race before Aug 31st ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-08-05; known on 2016-08-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-08-31.
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It will be revealed that Trump's goal in running for President was to see Clinton elected, in a kind of false-flag shill operation. ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JohnWittle on 2016-08-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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At least one flagship iPhone model announced in 2016 will have a 3.5mm headphone jack on the body of the phone ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-24; known on 2016-10-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-09-07.
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It will be generally agreed that Rush Limbaugh's 2016 contract was for less money than his 2008 contract. ( 90% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-08-03; known on 2066-08-16.
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Trump will not lead Clinton in the RCP average by more than 5% at any point in the 2016 election. ( 85% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-08-01; known on 2016-12-16; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-09.
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Attention Deficit Disorder more prevalent in hacker community(based on multiple, broad criteria) than baseline at a statistically significant level (at least in 2010s) ( 63% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Secretary of Education Sarah Palin ( 6% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-01; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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At least one journalist/blogger jailed for criticizing President Trump ( 18% confidence; 9 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-31; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sflicht on 2021-01-02.
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What is today known as the 2016 DNC leak will be generally agreed upon to have been hacked by a Russian Government operation. Similar to how the NYTimes says (but both governments deny) that Stuxnet was a joint US/Israel operation. ( 93% confidence; 5 wagers; 21 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-31; known on 2066-07-30; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-10-07.
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Hillary Clinton beats Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election. ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by robirahman on 2016-07-30; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Hillary Clinton wins election. ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by matuschoma on 2016-07-30; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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By 2030, there will be fewer than 3.5 million people employed in the US as truck drivers, as autonomous vehicles penetrate the market. ( 82% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2016-07-26; known on 2030-01-01.
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WWIII will include Turkey as a participant ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2024-01-01.
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Clinton elected and US civil war ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
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Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS ( 11% confidence; 10 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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Hillary Clinton elected AND nuclear war involving the US during her reign ( 2% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
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The Munich shooters turn out to be Muslim ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by bendini on 2016-07-22; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-23.
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Ted Cruz will be linked to a sex scandal. ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-16; known on 2036-07-17.
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Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee for President in 2016. ( 52% confidence; 88 wagers; 55 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-14; known on 2016-07-20; judged right by elephantower on 2016-07-16.
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Undivided government under the Republicans after 2016 ( 13% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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The GOP will win under 370 electoral votes in the 2016 presidential election ( 93% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-13; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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The world average of the 2016 democracy index will be higher than in 2015 ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-12; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-01-08.
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It will be generally agreed that had Ukraine been invaded by Russia, there would have been guerilla warfare/insurgency against the occupation ( 99% confidence; 11 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-08; known on 2066-07-08.
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NATO-Russia nuclear war following Richard Shirreff's timeline ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2017-05-17; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-17.
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Worldwide treaty banning all nuclear weapons + plan to reduce weapon stocks to 0 in place. ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2019-06-15; judged wrong by AlexLamson on 2019-06-27.
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The primary reason for the discovery of STUXNET was the Israeli modification of the source code. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-07; known on 2066-07-08.
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Contrary to game-theoretic concerns, miners will continue to mine bitcoin and the network will not collapse at the halvening due to lack of mining ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-07; known on 2016-07-19; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-09.
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Conditional on Egypt Flight 804 being a terrorist plot, the weak link will not be France or French airport security ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-04; known on 2021-06-16.
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The Republican convention will pass a motion to unbind the delegates ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-07; known on 2016-07-19; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-16.
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A motion to unbind delegates will be voted on by the full Republican convention ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-07; known on 2016-07-19; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-16.
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Trump's polling relative to Clinton's will improve if/when they have a debate. ( 64% confidence; 9 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Bound_Up on 2016-07-06; known on 2016-10-05; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-10-05.
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Conditional on Anders Behring Breivik's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of having Narcissistic Personality Disorder ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-05; known on 2066-07-05.
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Hillary Clinton wins the presidential election 2016 ( 64% confidence; 26 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2016-07-04; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Trump wins the presidential election 2016 ( 34% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by qznc on 2016-07-04; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
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The redacted 28 pages of the Joint Inquiry into Intelligence Community Activities Before and After the Terrorist Attacks of September 11, 2001 report will not be declassified in 2016 ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-02; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-07-16.
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Next Apple iPhone (7, not SE) excludes 3.5mm headphone jack. ( 60% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-25; known on 2016-08-16; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-09-07.
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Donald J Trump will pick Monica Lewinsky as his running mate. ( 3% confidence; 15 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-02; known on 2016-07-19; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-03.
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Conditional on Bill O'Reilly's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of having Narcissistic Personality Disorder [NPD]. ( 54% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-01; known on 2066-07-01.
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Conditional on Vladimir Putin's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of being on the autistic spectrum/having aspergers. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-01; known on 2066-07-01.
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Conditional on Donald Trump's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of being on the autistic spectrum/having aspergers. ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-01; known on 2066-07-01.
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US economic collapse before mar 2017: many banks fail, emergency measures taken by US fed taken & fail, mass drop in available credit, and at least 2 international news sources(la monde, der speigel) using the term 'economic collapse' to describe it ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-01.
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Trump VP pick is Jeff Sessions ( 27% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Trump VP pick is Mike Pence ( 38% confidence; 10 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2016-09-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Trump VP Pick Brian Sandoval ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Trump pick for VP is Bob Corker ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-12.
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Trump pick for VP is Marco Rubio ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Trump choice for VP is Mary Fallin ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Scotland will have another independence referendum and the result will be YES. ( 42% confidence; 16 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-03-23; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-02.
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Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-23; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-07-23.
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Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH) will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign. ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-23; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-07-23.
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Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-23; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-07-23.
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Cory Booker will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign ( 87% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-23; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-07-23.
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Julian Castro will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-23; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-07-23.
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A man will be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-23; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-07-23.
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SPOILER GAME OF THRONES ASOIAF. Pbaqvgvbany ba E+Y=W orvat erirnyrq ba F6R10, gur raqvat fprar jvyy or bs vg orvat erirnyrq. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-22; known on 2016-06-29; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-06-27.
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R+L=J revealed in episode 10 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-06-20; known on 2016-06-27; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-06-30.
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Trump picks Newt Gingrich for VP ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-19; known on 2017-01-14; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Trump goes it alone, does not appoint a VP ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-17; known on 2016-10-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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A woman will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign ( 77% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-17; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-07-23.
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Elizabeth Warren will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign ( 81% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-17; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-07-23.
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Kim Jong-un was assassinated on or before 16 June 2016. ( 3% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-06-16; known on 2016-12-17; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-06-29.
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Within five years it will be generally agreed that Egypt Flight 804 was brought down by an act of terror rather than a mechanical fault. ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-16; known on 2021-06-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2021-06-18.
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Gary Johnson will be the next elected President ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-14; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Florida shooter shot either independently, or on behalf of dalwa al isalmyya and not Al-Qaeda. ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-12; known on 2016-07-19; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-20.
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Conditional on Hillary Clinton's genome being sequenced, she will be shown to have a higher than average probability of being on the autistic spectrum/having aspergers. ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-07; known on 2066-06-07.
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Hilary Clinton as next US President ( 55% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by LawrenceNewport on 2016-06-07; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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S06E07 Arya was not actually Arya. ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-06-06; known on 2016-06-20; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2016-06-13.
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There will be at least one presidential debate in 2016 that both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump participate in ( 86% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-04; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-09.
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Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump will be the next elected President ( 90% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-01; known on 2016-11-10; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Clint Eastwood Trump's VP Pick ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-28; known on 2017-01-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Trump's VP Pick: Carol Bartz ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-26; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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I am banned from Predictionbook ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-23; known on 2021-05-22; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-02.
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Paul Ryan presides over the 2016 Republican Convention ( 79% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-13; known on 2016-08-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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Trump to back legalizing recreational and/or medical marijuana during 2016 election. ( 33% confidence; 9 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-05-04; known on 2016-11-16; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-11-16.
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CLEGANEBOWL ( 54% confidence; 8 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-05-09; known on 2016-07-04; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-06-27.
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FBI/CIA orchestrated “massive false flag tragedy” happens 6+/-1 days after new US president is elected ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-08; known on 2017-02-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-02-01.
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President Trump appoints Ron Paul as Secretary of State ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-08; known on 2017-02-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-02-01.
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All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-07; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-01-01.
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Trump's VP pick is not white (counting hispanic as non-white). ( 24% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-06; known on 2016-08-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.