Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 43% | 63% | 71% | 83% | 93% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 373 | 575 | 496 | 412 | 690 | 110 | 2656 |
Displaying all predictions made by gwern. Filter by:
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Jeb Bush will announce a candidacy for president in 2012 ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-09; known on 2012-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-06-01.
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“Within 50 years it will be the dominant paradigm within particle physics that all leptons and quarks are each composed of three pairs of two opposite types of black hole and that a pair of these black holes, when merged, form the underlying units from wh ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-08; known on 2060-11-07.
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“China's current regime will be overthrown or reformed (another political Party come into power) before 2020” ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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By 2050 most computer hardware will no longer be binary. ( 18% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-10-31; known on 2050-01-01.
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In about a year this website will have more then 20 active participants per week. ( 27% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-10-31; known on 2011-10-31; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-02.
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Mass casaulties (>3000) from bioterrorism by 2030 ( 51% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-30; known on 2031-01-01.
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'Vertical farms are appearing in many cities' by 2025 ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-29; known on 2026-01-01; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-09.
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'China's economy continues to boom' in 2025 ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-29; known on 2026-01-01.
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'Experiments at a university have yielded the first 10 year old mice' by 2025 ( 44% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-29; known on 2026-01-01.
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'Africa and the Middle East are linked by a transcontinental bridge' by 2025 ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-29; known on 2026-01-01.
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The New York Jets will win the Superbowl in 2011. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pdaveybean on 2010-10-29; known on 2011-02-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-02-07.
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Rotating computer hard drives are no longer used. —Ray Kurzweil ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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Cables connecting computers and peripherals have almost completely disappeared. —Ray Kurzweil ( 29% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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Most people own more than one P.C., though the concept of what a “computer” is has changed considerably: Computers are no longer limited in design to laptops or CPUs contained in a large box connected to a monitor. Instead, devices with computer capabilit ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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Most business transactions or information inquiries involve dealing with a simulated person. —Ray Kurzweil ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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People communicate with their computers via two-way speech and gestures instead of with keyboards. Furthermore, most of this interaction occurs through computerized assistants with different personalities that the user can select or customize. —Ray Kurz ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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These special glasses and contact lenses can deliver “augmented reality” and “virtual reality” in three different ways. First, they can project “heads-up-displays” (HUDs) across the user's field of vision, superimposing images that stay in place in the en ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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People experience 3-D virtual reality through glasses and contact lenses that beam images directly to their retinas (retinal display). Coupled with an auditory source (headphones), users can remotely communicate with other people and access the Internet. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-14.
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Computers are embedded everywhere in the environment (inside of furniture, jewelry, walls, clothing, etc.). —Ray Kurzweil ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2020-01-02.
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The summed computational powers of all computers is comparable to the total brainpower of the human race. —Ray Kurzweil ( 55% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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A $1,000 personal computer has as much raw power as the human brain. —Ray Kurzweil ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03.
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Three-dimensional nanotube lattices are the dominant computing substrate. —Ray Kurzweil ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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'African elephants are on the brink of extinction' in 2024 ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2025-01-01.
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Petabyte storage devices are available in 2024 ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2025-01-01.
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Solar Probe Plus flies into Sun's corona in 2024 ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2025-01-01.
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'2095 The development of a “Space Drive” – a propulsion system reacting against the structure of space-time – makes the rocket obsolete and permits velocities close to that of light. Human explorers set off to nearby star systems.' ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2096-01-01.
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'2090 Burning of fossil fuels is resumed to replace carbon dioxide “mined” from the air and to try to postpone the next Ice Age by promoting global warming.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2091-01-01.
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“2061 Halley's Comet returns – first landing by humans, And the sensational discovery of both dormant and active life forms vindicates Wickramasinghe and Hoyle's century-old hypothesis that life exists through space.” —Arthur C. Clarke ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2062-01-01.
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'2057 On October 4, the centenary of Sputnik 1, the dawn of the space age is celebrated by humans on Earth, the Moon, Mars, Europa, Ganymede and Titan, and in orbit around Venus, Neptune and Pluto.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2058-01-01.
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'2050 Bored in this era, millions decide to use cryonic suspension to emigrate into the future in search of adventure.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2051-01-01.
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'2045 The totally self-contained mobile home (envisaged almost a century ago by Buckminster Fuller) is perfected. Any additional carbon needed from food synthesis is obtained by extracting carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2046-01-01.
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'2040 The “Universal Replicator,” based on nanotechnology, is perfected: any object, however complex, can be created – given the necessary raw materials. Diamonds or gourmet meals can, literally, be made from dirt.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2041-01-01.
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'2025 Neurological research finally leads to an understanding of all the senses, and direct input becomes possible, bypassing ears, eyes, skin, etc. The result is the metal “Braincap.” Anyone wearing this close-fitting helmet can enter a whole universe of ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2026-01-01.
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'2024 Infrared signals are detected coming from the centre of the Galaxy, obviously the product of a technologically advanced civilisation. All attempts to decipher them fail.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2025-01-01.
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'2023 Dinosaur facsimiles are cloned from computer-generated DNA.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2024-01-01.
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'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 1% confidence; 26 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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'Borneo’s rainforests have been wiped from the map' by 2023 ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2024-01-01.
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'Gorillas are extinct in Central Africa' by 2023 ( 22% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2024-01-01.
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'Turkey becomes self-sufficient in energy production' by 2023 ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2024-01-01.
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'A permanent cure for migraine is available' by 2023 ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2024-01-01.
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'Artificial Intelligence reaches human level. From now on there are two intelligent species on Earth.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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'A major meteor impact occurs on the north polar ice cap. The resulting tsunamis cause considerable damage along the coasts of Greeland and Canada. The long-discussed “Project Spaceguard,” to identify and deflect potentially dangerous comets or asteroids, ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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'On his hundred birthday, December 16, Sir Arthur C. Clarke is one of the first guests in the Hilton Orbiter.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-07.
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'Existing currencies are abolished. The “mega-watt-hour” becomes the universal unit of exchange.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 0% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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'An inevitable by-product of the quantum generator is complete control of matter at the atomic level. Within a few years, because they are more useful, lead and copper cost twice as much as gold.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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'Construction of Hilton Orbiter Hotel begins by converting the giant shuttle tanks previously allowed to fall back to Earth.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-01.
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'Prince Harry becomes the first member of the British royal family to fly in space.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-02.
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'Aerospace-planes enter commercial service.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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'Largest living animal filmed: a 76-metre octopus in the Mariana Trench. By coincidence, even larger creatures are then discovered when the first robot probes drill through the ice of Europa.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 0% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
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By 2020, there will be a new World government. —Ray Kurzweil ( 2% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Phone calls entail three-dimensional holographic images of both people. —Ray Kurzweil ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2051-01-01.
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'Nanotech clothing enters the mass market' by 2022 ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2023-01-01.
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'Tooth regeneration is transforming dental care' by 2022 ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2023-01-01.
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'Piezoelectric nanowires are appearing in high-end products' by 2022 ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2023-01-01.
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Deafness cured by 2022 ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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'Fully reusable, single-stage-to-orbit spacecraft' in 2021 ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-24; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2022-01-01.
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CPUs switch from silicon to carbon nanotubes by 2022 ( 33% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-24; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2022-01-01.
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'Water crisis in southwest USA' in 2021 ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-24; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-08.
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There will be at least 1 wide-scale (>100 rioters) racial riot in South Korea in the 2020s. ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-24; known on 2030-01-01.
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'Complete organ replacements grown from stem cells' in 2020 ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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'Sweden becomes the first oil-free country' by 2021 ( 24% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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'Holographic TV is mainstream' in 2020 ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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'Texting by thinking' in 2020 ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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'Internet use reaches 5 billion worldwide' in 2020 ( 71% confidence; 10 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-03.
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'the MacBook Air in the future (18-24 months) will switch to ARM once the >2GHz ARM processors start shipping en masse' —pkaler ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-22; known on 2012-10-21; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-21.
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“Global oil demand exceeds 100m barrels per day” in 2019 ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-02-09.
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the Large Aral Sea gone in 2019 ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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“Automated freight transport” widespread by 2030s ( 84% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-19; known on 2040-01-01.
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“Bionic eyes are commercially available” in 2019 ( 22% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-01-01.
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“The ITER experimental fusion reactor is switched on” in 2019 ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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“Acute spinal injuries are fully treatable” in 2019 ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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“The last of Nigeria's rainforests have disappeared” in 2018 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-18; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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“Anti-fat drugs are available” in 2018 ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-18; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-02-19.
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“Consumer devices with 100 Gbit/s transfer speeds” in 2018 ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-18; known on 2019-01-01.
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“Robot insect spies are in military use” in 2018 ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-18; known on 2019-01-01.
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By 2100 it's obvious to the average human that (1) Global warming is true and (2) it's actually a good thing: Resulting in a better climate then we have had in recorded history. A stable Wet-Sahara/Warm-Siberia/No Rainforest scenario. ( 48% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-10-17; known on 2100-01-01.
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Before 2012 Apple will (start to) phase out the CD/DVD drives from all it's MacBooks. ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-10-16; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-02.
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The Betelgeuse star will be observed to die within 60 years ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2010-10-14; known on 2070-12-31.
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Teleportation of simple molecules by 2018 ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-01-08.
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Portable medical lasers that seal wounds by 2018 ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-01-08.
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e-paper in wide use by 2018 ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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Crossrail opens in London ( 10% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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“Within five years the Chinese government will have embarked on a major eugenics program designed to mass produce super-geniuses. (40%)” —James Miller ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-07; known on 2015-10-06; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-07.
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By 2016, at least one reviewer of Haruhi will accept the theory that Kyon is god. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-07.
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The Haruhi light novel series will conclude by 2015. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-05; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.
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I will re-read the Haruhi novels & finish my Haruhi essay by 2011. ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-05; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-01.
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PredictionBook will not be meaningfully integrated into LessWrong.com before 2011. ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-05; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-01.
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Strait of Messina bridge completed by 2017 ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-05; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Playstation 4/successor PS3 released by 2017 ( 30% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-05; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06.
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HVD have replaced Blu-Ray by 2017 ( 6% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-05; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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A Myst live-action movie will not be released before 2020. ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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Facebook's 2015 revenues will be >$28 billion —Adam Rifkin, TechCrunch ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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Maria and Mikael Jungner will initiate divorce before October 1st, 2011. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by mikko2 on 2010-10-01; known on 2011-10-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-12.
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Google's WebP image format will be unsuccessful. ( 92% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-30; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2022-06-22.
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Wikipedia: User:Arbitrarily0 will say User:Gwern changed the Saimoe AfD from redirect/delete to no consensus ( 85% confidence; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-30; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2010-10-02.
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California's Proposition 19 will be approved. (This doesn't cover legal action after the election, just that it gets a simple majority.) ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ggreer on 2010-09-30; known on 2010-11-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-11-03.
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“Christopher Hitchens will publicly confess his sins to God, however he finds Him between now and the time of his passing, and accept Christ as his Lord, Savior and pathway to God. He will do this in a meaningful rather than a flippant, facetious or hyp ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-19; known on 2020-01-03; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-16.
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'Laser guns are in naval use' in 2016 ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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'Most phone calls are made via the Internet' in 2014 ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2015-01-21.
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'Terabyte SD cards will be available' in 2014 ( 31% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.