Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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In the 2012 election, Obama will pick up at least one state he didn't win in 2008. ( 30% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-08-01; known on 2012-11-10; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-11-07.
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Obama will win the 2012 United States presidential Elections. ( 86% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Tuxedage on 2012-06-10; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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Barack Obama elected president in 2012 ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Solvent on 2011-08-18; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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Barack Obama will win Ohio's electoral votes in the 2012 election. ( 54% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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Barack Obama wins the presidential elections in 2012. ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by SilentWarrior on 2010-09-01; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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Obama is going to be re-elected as president in 2012. ( 79% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Alexander Kruel on 2011-08-17; known on 2012-11-06; judged right by Jach on 2012-11-07.
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Barack Obama will win the 2012 Presidential Election ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by SaramMueller on 2012-10-24; known on 2012-11-06; judged right by Jach on 2012-11-07.
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The Democratic Candidate for President will win Arizona in 2012. ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-13; known on 2012-12-01; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-11-07.
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Democrats will retain control of the senate after 2012 election ( 61% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-21; known on 2012-12-15; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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The Republican Candidate for President will win Arizona in 2012. ( 80% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-13; known on 2012-12-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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Donald Trump won't pay out on his $5m offer to Obama to release educational transcripts ( 80% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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Barack Obama will win reelection. ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by TheHumanite on 2011-06-06; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.
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Barack Obama will be reelected in the next US election. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by DavidPercival on 2011-05-20; known on 2012-11-06; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.
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Barack Obama will get reelected in two years (not individual opinion) ( 66% confidence; 17 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by tjross on 2010-03-23; known on 2012-11-06; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.
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Barack Obama will win the 2012 U.S. presidential election. ( 67% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-02; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.
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Either Mitt Romney or Barack Obama will win the 2012 Presidential election. ( 91% confidence; 29 wagers )
Created by HonoreDB on 2011-11-04; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.
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President Barak Obama will be re-elected, the Democrats will retain the Senate, and retake the House of Representatives. This will not prevent a great deal of obstructionism to anything he wants to get passed, particularly in the Senate. ( 30% confidence; 18 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by MuscleCBT on 2011-11-02; known on 2012-11-11; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.
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Obama will be elected President in 2012 ( 69% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by cmessinger on 2011-08-16; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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Obama will win Ohio ( 73% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-11-08; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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The TV networks will call the election (for one or the other candidate) before midnight pacific time. ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-06; known on 2013-11-07; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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Romney will win Florida ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-11-08; judged wrong by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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Obama will win Colorado ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-12-08; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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Romney will win Iowa ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-12-08; judged wrong by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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Romney will win Iowa ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-12-08; judged wrong by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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Mitt Romney will win the popular vote in the 2012 US election ( 37% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-26; known on 2012-11-10; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-08.
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Mitt Romney will win the popular vote in the 2012 US election ( 37% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-26; known on 2012-11-10; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-08.
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Romney-Ryan won't win Wisconsin in 2012 ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-13; known on 2012-11-15; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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Beyond 2011 and 2010, Romney will eventually release more tax returns before the election. ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-22; known on 2012-11-05; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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Linda McMahon (wife of wrestling CEO) won't win seat as Connecticut senator ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-15; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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Michele Bachmann will be revealed as a drug addict before Election Day ( 9% confidence; 10 wagers; 73 comments )
Created by Jach on 2011-07-20; known on 2012-11-06; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-06.
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No 3rd party candidate gains 5% of the popular vote for president. (90%) —knb ( 82% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2012-11-04; judged right by gwern on 2012-11-04.
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DNB/nicotine day 37: active? ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-11-04; known on 2012-11-04; judged right by gwern on 2012-11-04.
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I will finish mixing my song in 3 days ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by SorcererofDM on 2012-10-31; known on 2012-11-03; judged wrong by SorcererofDM on 2012-11-03.
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DNB/nicotine day 36: active? ( 55% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-11-03; known on 2012-11-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-11-03.
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The NYC subway will remain fully closed for all of Tuesday. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gusl on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-10-31; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-02.
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The broken crane hanging above NYC will not fall during hurricane Sandy. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-11-01; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-02.
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US unemployment rate below 8% by the 2012 election (last reported number before the election) ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-10; known on 2012-11-15; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-02.
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DNB/nicotine day 35: active? ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-11-02; known on 2012-11-02; judged right by gwern on 2012-11-02.
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Lorne will not clean the bathroom during October ( 90% confidence )
Created by SaramMueller on 2012-10-24; known on 2012-11-01; judged wrong by SaramMueller on 2012-11-01.
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The character of George Washington will make a Face Heel Turn in Assassin's Creed 3. ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2012-03-05; known on 2012-11-01; judged right by papermachine on 2012-11-01.
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Assassin's Creed 3 will be available in the United States by October 31, 2012 ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2012-03-05; known on 2012-11-01; judged right by papermachine on 2012-11-01.
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Ares/Mars will make an on-screen appearance in Assassin's Creed 3, as a member of the First Civilization. ( 10% confidence )
Created by papermachine on 2012-03-05; known on 2012-11-01; judged wrong by papermachine on 2012-11-01.
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DNB/nicotine day 34: active? ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-11-01; known on 2012-11-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-11-01.
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'Will Palin, Trump, Bloomberg, Paul or Bachmann run as an Independent or 3rd party candidate?' —Intrade ( 23% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-09; known on 2012-11-02; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-10-31.
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Pope Benedict XVI will be dead before November, 2012. ( 9% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-08; known on 2012-11-01; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-10-31.
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I will have finished reading “Four Witnesses: The Early Church in Her Own Words” by Oct. 31st ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jakewalker on 2012-09-13; known on 2012-10-31; judged wrong by jakewalker on 2012-10-31.
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There will be 2 or more Gangnam style touchdown celebrations in the NFL next week (10/25 to 10/29) ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-22; known on 2012-10-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-10-30.
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Avengers will outgross Avatar (global box office > 2.78b) ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-13; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by davidiach on 2012-10-30.
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Avengers will outgross Titanic (global box office > 2.18b) ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-13; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by davidiach on 2012-10-30.