Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Econ – The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the U.S. civilian unemployment rate (U3) for the month of December 2018 to be 3.6 or lower. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-20; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-02-17.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2019-02-08). ( 18% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-02-09; known on 2019-02-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-02-16.
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[Commodities] US crude oil production in 2019-01 to exceed production in 2018-12 ( 80% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-16; known on 2019-02-14; judged right by Cato on 2019-02-13.
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Trump will not be impeached ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by bklorimer on 2019-02-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-08-13.
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Trump will not be impeached ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by bklorimer on 2019-02-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-08-13.
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I will read one book per month until the end of 2019 (regardless of book length). ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by avi on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by avi on 2019-02-13.
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AR gives us the okay for publishing our project on CC-PA ( 80% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2019-01-24; known on 2019-02-08; judged right by peter_hurford on 2019-02-11.
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[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 10 books ( 15% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-02-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-11.
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[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 4 books ( 68% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-02-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-11.
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[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 12 books ( 5% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-02-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-11.
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[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 13 books ( 3% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-02-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-11.
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[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 7 books ( 45% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-02-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-11.
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[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 6 books ( 50% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-02-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-11.
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[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 11 books ( 10% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-02-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-11.
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[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 2 books ( 93% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-02-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-11.
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[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 5 books ( 55% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-02-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-11.
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[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 3 books ( 83% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-02-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-11.
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[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 8 books ( 35% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-02-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-11.
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[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 14 books ( 1% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-02-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-11.
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[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 1 book ( 97% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-02-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-11.
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[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 9 books ( 25% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-02-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-11.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2019-02-01). ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-02-08; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-02-09.
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Politics, US – Trump declares a state of emergency prior to the 1st of February 2019. ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2019-01-07; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-02-08.
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The Hometrack London house price index will be lower by the end of 2018 than today ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-22; known on 2018-12-16; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-02-05.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2019-01-25). ( 15% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-25; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-02-02.
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The RWBY Wiki entry for Cinder Fall lists her as “Deceased” at the conclusion of Volume 6. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-14; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-02-01.
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The market capitalization of Ethereum (ETH) will overtake the market capitalization of Bitcoin (BTC) before the end of January 2019. ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Anidrania on 2018-02-26; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-02-01.
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Tesla's stock will be above $310 per share as of February 1st, 2019. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2018-08-01; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2019-02-01.
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Brent crude to be above $60/barrel by end of January ( 61% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-02-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-02-01.
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I will finish “Stories of the Sahara” in January. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-04; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-01.
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[Books] I will finish reading “Restless Empire” by January EOM. ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-08; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-01.
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23 or more US senators will be women by the end of January 2019 ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukefreeman on 2018-08-30; known on 2019-01-31; judged right by lukefreeman on 2019-01-31.
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Australia will have an election before the end of January ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by lukefreeman on 2018-08-25; known on 2019-01-31; judged wrong by lukefreeman on 2019-01-31.
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[Commodities] US crude oil inventories to be lower as of 2019-01-25 relative to 2019-01-18 ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-22; known on 2019-01-30; judged wrong by tony77 on 2019-01-31.
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Presidente interino MT será conduzido à condição de Presidente da República e exercerá seu mandato até o final. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2016-05-18; known on 2019-01-02; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-30.
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[Personal] I will get out of this city this weekend ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-22; known on 2019-01-28; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-28.
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[Personal] I will leave the country this weekend. ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-22; known on 2019-01-28; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-28.
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[Commodities] US crude oil inventories to be lower as of 2019-01-18 relative to 2019-01-11 ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-22; known on 2019-01-25; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-28.
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[Fighting] Bader to beat Emelianenko at Bellator 214. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-10; known on 2019-01-27; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-28.
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Technology – New iPhone model released with lowest option priced over $800 in the US before the end of 2018 ( 68% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2019-01-27.
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Within five years, Pope Francis (or a successor) makes a comment in an official or unofficial capacity that there is no literal hell. ( 11% confidence; 21 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by adbge on 2014-01-07; known on 2019-01-07; judged right by Osuniev on 2019-01-27.
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Number of countries bombed by the US in 2017 is > 7 ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-31; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Osuniev on 2019-01-27.
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Tom Brady is under 40. ( 60% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-26; known on 2019-01-26; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-26.
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The US government shutdown will end before April 1, 2019. ( 93% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-05; known on 2019-04-01; judged right by amadeu on 2019-01-25.
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The US government shutdown will end before March 1, 2019. ( 78% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-05; known on 2019-03-01; judged right by amadeu on 2019-01-25.
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The US government shutdown will end before February 1, 2019. ( 66% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-05; known on 2019-02-01; judged right by amadeu on 2019-01-25.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2019-01-18). ( 10% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-18; known on 2019-01-25; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-25.
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My donation will arrive in time for me to be included in the CEA donor lottery ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by enolan on 2019-01-20; known on 2019-01-24; judged right by enolan on 2019-01-23.
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Personal, Accounts – My Money Dashboard totals are below -£2000 at the start of 2019-01-04. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-20; known on 2019-01-04; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-23.
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UK – Drone sighting over Heathrow on 2019-01-08 fails to be substantiated (reinforced by other evidence and authorities describe as credible) before or on 2019-01-15. ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2019-01-08; known on 2019-01-16; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-23.