Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 38% | 57% | 77% | 85% | 97% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 13 | 37 | 35 | 48 | 62 | 2 | 197 |
Displaying all predictions made by danielfilan. Filter by:
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Effective Altruism Canberra will have 15 prospective members, allowing them to affiliate with the Australian National University Students Association, by the end of this year. ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-02; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by danielfilan on 2016-01-01.
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At least 3 more people in the US will get the bubonic plague by year-end 2016. ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-11-01; known on 2017-01-02; judged unknown by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-12-26.
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I will get full marks in today's finance programming quiz. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-11-15; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-11-05.
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I will complete at least 1 pomodoro after eating out with friends and before midnight. ( 20% confidence )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-29; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-10-29.
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In the month of November, I will make at least four predictions on this site. ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-12-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-12-02.
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By 2025, proven that there exist infinitely many primes p and q with |p-q| < 200. ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-30; known on 2025-01-01.
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I will have marked all assignments (except ones suspected of plagiarism) by noon Thursday. ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-10-26; known on 2015-10-29; judged right by danielfilan on 2015-10-28.
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Australia will win the 2015 Rugby World Cup. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-10-26; known on 2015-11-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-10-31.
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We will know the elections results in Poland on Tuesday or earlier ( 81% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by argothiel on 2015-10-25; known on 2015-10-28; judged right by argothiel on 2015-10-26.
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Coalition for the Renewal of the Republic – Liberty and Hope will get to the Parliament during 2015 elections in Poland ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by argothiel on 2015-10-25; known on 2015-10-29; judged wrong by argothiel on 2015-10-26.
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Law and Justice party will win the 2015 elections in Poland ( 95% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by argothiel on 2015-10-25; known on 2015-10-29; judged right by argothiel on 2015-10-26.
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Haruki Murakami will win the next Nobel Prize in Literature. ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-10-20; known on 2016-11-01; judged wrong by penten on 2016-10-14.
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Tsai Ing-wen will win the election for the Presidency of the Republic of China (Taiwan). ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-10-20; known on 2016-01-17; judged right by danielfilan on 2016-01-16.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky to have at least 1 child by 2020 ( 22% confidence; 31 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by sdr on 2015-10-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-01-01.
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Alexander Coward's firing from UC Berkeley Mathematics department will be overruled. ( 30% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-15; known on 2015-12-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-01.
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In the next 10 years Columbus Day will stop being a US federal holiday, or will be changed to Indigenous People's Day or some other non-Columbus-themed alternative. ( 25% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-13; known on 2025-10-13.
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The Australian National University will change the name or acronym of its Interactive Student Information System (ISIS) some time in the next year. ( 33% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-10-10; known on 2016-10-10; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-10-10.
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Paul Ryan will choose to run for Speaker of the House ( 53% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2015-10-09; known on 2015-11-01; judged right by danielfilan on 2015-10-23.
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At least one major car brand not affiliated with WV will be caught for emission cheating during the next year ( 70% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by silacoid on 2015-10-07; known on 2016-10-07; judged right by kuudes on 2015-10-09.
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Ronda Rousey will win her Nov. 14 fight with Holly Holm. ( 74% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-03; known on 2015-11-15; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-11-15.
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Them's Fightin' Herds will reach its funding goal. ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by timujin on 2015-10-02; known on 2015-10-22; judged right by timujin on 2015-10-19.
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Either the Koru flag or the Red Peak flag will be chosen in the first New Zealand flag referendum. ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-09-30; known on 2015-12-12; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-12-12.
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The next candidate to drop out of the Republican Presidential primary will be one of Jindal, Santorum, Gilmore, Pataki, Graham or Pence ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-27; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by danielfilan on 2015-11-18.
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From today until January 1st, 2016 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2016-01-01.
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I will accept an offer for a PhD program at UC Berkeley or Stanford. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-09-26; known on 2016-05-01; judged right by danielfilan on 2016-05-01.
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I will have a rating above 1500 on lichess.org at the end of 2015 ( 70% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-09-25; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
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R(5,5) known by January 1, 2052 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-24; known on 2052-01-01.
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I will complete my next 30day pushup challenge inside the 30 allotted days ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by taryneast on 2015-09-21; known on 2015-10-21; judged wrong by taryneast on 2015-10-20.
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After the next Australian federal election, a member of the Labor party will be sworn in as Prime Minister. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-09-11; known on 2017-02-01; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2017-02-01.
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Hillary Clinton will be the 2016 Democratic nominee for US President. ( 81% confidence; 39 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by m2bn on 2015-09-11; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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From today until January 1st, 2023 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-07-12.
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The Liberal party will win the Canning by-election. ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-09-05; known on 2015-09-20; judged right by kuudes on 2015-09-19.
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New Zealand will vote to change its flag in the 2016 referendum. ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-09-05; known on 2016-03-25; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-24.
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Bernie Sanders is the next US President elect ( 12% confidence; 30 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-09-03; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by Afforess on 2016-10-06.
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US energy consumption per capita will be below 250 Million Btu at any time from 2016 through 2050 ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-03; known on 2051-01-01.
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The Schengen Agreement will be terminated within 5 years. ( 26% confidence; 15 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by danpop on 2015-08-29; known on 2018-08-29; judged wrong by sdr on 2018-08-29.
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Ted Cruz to win the Republican nomination for President. ( 14% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-27; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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Joe Biden will win the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination. ( 10% confidence; 28 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-08-25; known on 2016-09-15; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-09-02.
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The Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in September. ( 75% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-08-23; known on 2015-09-17; judged right by Afforess on 2015-09-17.
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Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050 ( 29% confidence; 14 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-19; known on 2051-01-01.
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Donald Trump to be the next elected President of the United Stated. ( 21% confidence; 53 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-10; known on 2016-11-12; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-09.
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Harvard endowment in 2020 to exceed that of 2015 ( 61% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-16; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2021-10-13.
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When/if Raahul_Kumar reaches 30 predictions for which the answer becomes known and he assigned >95% confidence, he will have at best 50% accuracy for the 100% category ( 33% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-07-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-21.
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The United Kingdom's referendum will vote to stay in the European Union. ( 61% confidence; 40 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by sdr on 2015-06-27; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ejlflop on 2016-06-24.
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Bernie Sanders to be the next elected President of the United States ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-01; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-10.
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The Australian Broadcasting Corporation will be privatised on or by 1/1/2030. ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by najdorf on 2013-11-29; known on 2030-01-02.
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The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022 ( 34% confidence; 35 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-15; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by M on 2022-01-01.
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Republican presidential candidate in 2016 to be generally perceived as immigration-friendly (described as such by a major news source). ( 30% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-20; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-08-05.
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'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 1% confidence; 26 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.” ( 35% confidence; 23 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2035-01-01.