Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Recent Predictions
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Personal, Productivity – I clear my Anki due cards in active decks by deadline. ( 75% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-05; known on 2020-01-06; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-01-11.
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Entre os dias 11 de janeiro de 2020 e 26 de dezembro de 2020, publicarei ao menos 35 edições da minha newsletter semanal ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2020-01-04; known on 2020-12-27; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2020-12-27.
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The African Continental Free Trade Area is operational between all countries it is legally in force for, with the treaty effectively governing all the trade its text covers ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.
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[States (+DC) adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact] have >= 270 electoral votes ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.
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[States (+DC) adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact] have >= 229 electoral votes ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.
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[States (+DC) adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact] have been joind by at least 4 other states ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.
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[States (+DC) adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact] have been joined by at least one other state ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.
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[States (+DC) adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact] are fewer than 16 ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.
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[States (+DC) adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact] are only the current 16 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.
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[2020s scientific advances:] a small, rocky exoplanet with water vapor ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2030-01-01.
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[2020s scientific advances:] finding the axion ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2030-01-01.
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[2020s scientific advances:] functional brain implants made of brain tissue (not electronic) ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2030-01-01.
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[2020s scientific advances:] a universal flu vaccine available to the general public in at least one country ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2030-01-01.
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As of the end of 2030, nobody lives on less than the international poverty line. ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-06-30.
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Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars ( 19% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-01-01.
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By 2030, small nuclear power plants (around 60MW) were “popping up” around the USA. ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03; known on 2032-01-01.
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China sequences 100 million people's genomes between 2026 and 2030 ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03; known on 2031-01-01.
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“We are confident that over 60 million patients will have their genome sequenced in a healthcare context by 2025” ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03; known on 2026-05-01.
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In 2030, global greenhouse gas emissions have been at most 50% of those in 2018. ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03; known on 2031-01-01.
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There is a base on the surface of the Moon and there is always someone there. ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-01-01.
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There will be a Robotaxi available somewhere ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-12-31.
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Waymo still uses safety drivers in 10 years or closes down ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-12-31.
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Some car company will sell SAE level 3 cars in the next 10 years. ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-12-31.
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Javascript is still the dominant programming language in browsers by 2030 ( 78% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-12-31.
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Joe Rogan will host a presidential debate in the next ten years ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-12-31.
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Someone sells a hoverboard by 2030 ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-12-31.
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Google still has more than 66% market share for search by 2030 ( 73% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-12-31.
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[The Economist predicts:] Britain gets a new monarch ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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[The Economist predicts:] Greta Thunberg wins Nobel peace prize ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-10-09.
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[The Economist predicts:] Record high global average temperature is recorded by NASA ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-19.
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[The Economist predicts:] US gives notice of withdrawal from NATO ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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[The Economist predicts:] S&P 500 stock index ends year at least 10% down ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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[The Economist predicts:] United States falls into recession during the next 12 months ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.
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[The Economist predicts:] House prices fall across rich English-speaking countries ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-12-31.
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[The Economist predicts:] China wins the most gold medals at the Olympics ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-08-17.
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[The Economist predicts:] England wins Euro 2020 men's football tournament ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-08-17.
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[The Economist predicts:] 'Parasite' wins best picture at the Oscars ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-03-15.
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[The Economist predicts:] Billie Eilish wins album of the year at the Grammys ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-04-10.
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[The Economist predicts:] Christian Coleman wins men's 100 metres at the Olympics ( 44% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-08-17.
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[The Economist predicts:] Scotland's parliament votes for independence referendum ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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[The Economist predicts:] Bitcoin price ends year below $7,500 ( 40% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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[The Economist predicts:] Nicolás Maduro holds on to the presidency of Venezuela ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Climate change catastrophes cause more property damage over than 2020-2030 period than the purported $300bn USD (as reported by Time via Bloomberg, october 24, 2019) that would need to be invested to limit the worst of the effects. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kallman on 2020-01-02; known on 2031-01-01.
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I pass the Automattic chat interview ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-01-02; known on 2020-01-16; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-01-16.
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I will pass Italian B1 language by mid 2022 ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2020-01-01; known on 2022-07-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2022-07-02.
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I will weight 67kg or less by EOY 2020 ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2020-01-01; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2021-01-01.
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April 2020 VIX call at 65 will be in the money ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-01-01; known on 2020-04-30; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-05-01.
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January 2020 VIX call at 22 will be in the money ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-01-01; known on 2020-01-31; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-01-31.
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U.S. 10 year Treasury yield below 3.5% before 2025 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-01-01; known on 2024-12-31.
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S&P 500 index ends 2020 above 3500 ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-01-01; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by batemancapital on 2020-12-31.
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Dollar index (DXY) 2020 performance is negative ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-01-01; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by batemancapital on 2020-12-31.
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10Y Treasury yield goes above 2% in Q1 2020 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-01-01; known on 2020-03-31; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-04-19.
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Tesla will achieve approved full self-driving in at least one state in the USA by the end of 2024 without geofencing. ( 24% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2020-01-01; known on 2024-12-31.
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Liverpool will win the treble in 2020: FA Cup, Premier League, Champions League ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2020-01-01; known on 2020-05-31; judged wrong by Paul.David.Carr on 2020-06-01.
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Tesla stock (TSLA) will top $500/share some time in 2020. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2020-01-01; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Paul.David.Carr on 2020-06-01.
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Bulgaria has applied to join ERM-II (a prerequisite for adopting the euro) ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-07-09.
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Belgium has formed a federal government ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01; known on 2020-05-26; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-05-11.
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Kosovo has <116 recognitions by sovereign states (excludes Niue and Cook Islands, includes “withdrawn” recognitions because withdrawing isn't valid) ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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I contribute a major feature to PredictionBook ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.
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BJP will win even the 2024 elections ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by optimaton on 2019-12-30; known on 2024-06-01.
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VC Culture will die by 2040 ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by optimaton on 2019-12-30; known on 2040-01-01.
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The transition from the XOF franc to the eco will be complete in all countries currently using XOF. ( 1% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-29; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-09-13.
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[Vikings] Bjorn is elected king of all Norway ( 60% confidence )
Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2020-02-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2020-02-01.
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[Vikings] Lagertha survives season 6 ( 40% confidence )
Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2020-02-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2020-02-01.
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Halo Infinite is released in Q4 2020 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2020-12-25; judged wrong by qznc on 2021-01-01.
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Diablo IV is released in 2021 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2021-12-31; judged wrong by qznc on 2022-01-02.
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Jurassic World 3 is released in June 2021 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2021-06-30; judged wrong by qznc on 2021-07-01.
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Uncharted movie is released in December 2020 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2020-12-25; judged wrong by qznc on 2021-01-01.
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Dune movie is released in December 2020 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2020-12-25; judged wrong by qznc on 2021-01-01.
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Avatar 2 is released in December 2021 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2021-12-25; judged wrong by qznc on 2022-01-02.
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A Star Wars movie is released in December 2022 ( 38% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2022-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-01-01.
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Apple will release a Macbook or Macbook Pro that uses a CPU designed by someone other than Intel or AMD. ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by quanticle on 2019-12-29; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-10.
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Donald Trump will NOT be re-elected ( 55% confidence; 26 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by tcsmithbiz@yahoo.com on 2019-12-23; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2020-11-07.
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The Baltimore Ravens will win the Super Bowl ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by tcsmithbiz@yahoo.com on 2019-12-23; known on 2020-02-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-02-15.
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Pete Buttigieg will win the Democratic Nomination ( 14% confidence; 18 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by tcsmithbiz@yahoo.com on 2019-12-23; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-09-06.
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Federal Reserve does not reduce target Fed Fund rate in 2020 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by batemancapital on 2019-12-23; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-12-31.
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US Treasury 10Y yield >= 3% in 2020 ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by batemancapital on 2019-12-23; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-12-31.
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Dave Peterson bought me an electric shaver for Christmas. ( 60% confidence )
Created by dmwit on 2019-12-15; known on 2019-12-28; judged wrong by dmwit on 2019-12-23.
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AfD will get more votes than FDP in 2020 Hamburg State Election ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2019-12-12; known on 2020-02-24; judged right by qznc on 2020-02-25.
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SPD will get the most votes in 2020 Hamburg State Election ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2019-12-12; known on 2020-02-24; judged right by qznc on 2020-02-25.
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Jeopardy will still be on the air in 2025. ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by skateboard34 on 2019-12-12; known on 2025-01-01.
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Max Verstappen will win the 2020 F1 World Championship. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by skateboard34 on 2019-12-12; known on 2020-12-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-18.
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AWS will announce an ap-southeast-3 region for Western Australia, by the end of 2020 ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by bly on 2019-12-04; known on 2021-01-16.
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[AWS] re:invent 2020 will announce the next iteration of DeepRacer – head to head combat robot competitions (think battle bots) ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by bly on 2019-12-03; known on 2020-12-16; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-18.
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oil consumption will remain at or above current levels for at least 20 years ( 45% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kjaques on 2019-11-30; known on 2039-11-30.
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Pete Buttigieg will win the democratic primary ( 17% confidence; 18 wagers )
Created by skuthus on 2019-11-27; known on 2020-06-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-17.
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[Fighting] Tony Ferguson and Khabib Nurmagomedov to fight in April 2020 ( 73% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-27; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-02.
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The Netherlands will make their 2020 Urgenda climate goal ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Stucwerk on 2019-11-26; known on 2021-01-01.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, not won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 41 to 51 ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-05.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, not won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 31 to 40 ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-16.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, not won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 21 to 30 ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, not won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 11 to 20 ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, not won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 1 to 10 ( 36% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, not won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 0 ( 60% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 41 to 51 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-05.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 31 to 40 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-16.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 21 to 30 ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 11 to 20 ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 1 to 10 ( 55% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 0 ( 42% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.