Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
-
Amazon will choose either Miami or Boston as their HQ2 (me) ( 50% confidence )
Created by workbean on 2018-01-31; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
Ripple (XRP) is purchasable on Coinbase (GDAX) by the end of 2018 ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-02-05; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.
-
Ripple (XRP) is purchasable on Coinbase (GDAX) by the end of 2018 ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-02-05; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.
-
“A rash of new-age-techno cults sweep an exhausted Russia.” ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-22; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2019-01-01.
-
Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2019 ( 15% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-17; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2019-01-01.
-
AI to beat at least one of the ten top-ranked humans in Starcraft Brood War by January 1, 2019 ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-23; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2019-01-01.
-
A second Falcon Heavy launch by the end of 2018 ( 85% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-02-20; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2019-01-01.
-
I will finish 6 or more books this year ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jach on 2018-01-02; known on 2019-01-02; judged right by Jach on 2019-01-01.
-
I am still at SFDC in 3 years ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jach on 2016-01-10; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Jach on 2019-01-01.
-
SaskTel privatized ( 21% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
“The last of Nigeria's rainforests have disappeared” in 2018 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-18; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
'Cheques are phased out in the UK' by 2019 ( 39% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-27; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
If Greece is bailed out under condition of austerity, these conditions will cease to be enforced within Greece by 2018, or never be enforced at all. ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-07-12; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2019. ( 36% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sflicht on 2016-04-28; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
Canada's Federal NDP will adopt the LEAP manifesto as official party policy ( 58% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-12; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
SpaceX will fly a mission with crew around the moon by end of 2018. ( 29% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by trishume on 2017-02-28; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
North Korea will test-detonate a nuclear weapon in 2018 ( 32% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
Trump to end 2018 with ≥40% approval rating as aggregated by 538. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
Francis is still Pope on 1/1/19 ( 87% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
Kim Jong Un is leader of North Korea on 12/31/18 ( 90% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-03; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
A democrat will win the SF mayoral special election. ( 95% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ardenlk on 2017-12-30; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
Israeli troops on the ground in foreign country (not Gaza or West Bank) by end of 2018 ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2018-02-10; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2019-01-01.
-
By January 1, 2019 War between North Korea and at least one of the US, Britain, China, Japan, South Korea, or the collapse of the North Korean government. ( 25% confidence; 15 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-19; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
'The African Central Bank is established' in 2018 ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
4chan to remain a top-1000 site by the end of 2018 ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
“The fertility rate in China drops below the replacement level, and nothing the government can do can get Chinese couples to have more than 1.5 kids each.” ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-22; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
Google will acquire Yelp by 2018 ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
“Polygamy is granted legal status in the US.” ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-22; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
Quora to make an independent IPO by 2018 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
Uber will go bankrupt, dissolve, or merge with another company by the end of 2018 ( 17% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sdr on 2017-03-20; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
China will fully seize executive power in Hong Kong by 2018. ( 15% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Nick.dylan on 2017-04-14; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
Maduro shot within 30 days of Óscar Pérez publicly posting bitcoin address ( 49% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
Emperor Akihito will abdicate the throne by January 1, 2019. ( 51% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-18; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
Trump will launch at least one significant war resulting in hundreds of thousands of deaths before US midterm elections. (deaths can include post midterms; we'll just have to judge if any small wars seem likely to go over threshold) ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Temeraire on 2017-01-28; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2019-01-01.
-
Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2018 ( 82% confidence; 52 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2017-03-31; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
Technology – The price of a bitcoin is over $10,000 at the end of 2018. ( 26% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
-
President Trump will be impeached by 12/31/18 ( 11% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
Trump will be President on 12/31/18 ( 85% confidence; 18 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
Jeff Sessions will be AG on 12/31/18 ( 51% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-29; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
Tillerson will be SoS on 12/31/18 ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-30; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
https://predictionbook.com/predictions/186415 + Stephen Paddock targeted the country music festival because Paddock or ISIS or a co-conspirator believed the attendees were more likely to be Trump voters or supportive of bomb-ISIS policies ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-10-08; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
-
Stephen Paddock was a jihadi, or affiliated with ISIS, or carried out the Las Vegas attack on behalf of ISIS ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-10-08; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
-
Amazon will choose either Northern Virginia or Dallas as their HQ2 ( 50% confidence )
Created by retran on 2018-01-31; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
[The monarch of the United Kingdom on 12/31/18 is] Elizabeth II ( 87% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-02; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
“"Brooke Shields will be be a recipeint of the Kennedy Center Honors for her lifetime contributions to American culture through the performing arts, within the next fifteen years."” ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
news.ycombinator.com will shut down or be offline >= 1 week before 2019 ( 13% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-09-19; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
-
“Large Hadron Collider will destroy Earth.” ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-01-01.
-
Mars Insight successfully lands on mars ( 31% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-04; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
I will move before 2019 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-10-08; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
-
I will ride in a level 4+ autonomous vehicle before 2019 ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-19; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.