Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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[The average spot price of Brent crude oil in March 2019 will be] less than $50/barrel ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-04; known on 2019-04-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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[The average spot price of Brent crude oil in March 2019 will be] between $50 and $60/barrel ( 18% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-04; known on 2019-04-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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[Politics] Nicolás Maduro to resign as president of Venezuela in 2019 Q1. ( 9% confidence; 15 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-15; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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[Politics] The US to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q1 EOQ ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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[Internet] The majority of top 30 global websites to be either Chinese or blocked in China as of 1Q19 EOQ ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-04-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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Donald Trump and Xi Jinping to meet in March 2019 ( 7% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-13; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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[Politics] Nicolás Maduro to resign as president of Venezuela in 2019 Q1. ( 9% confidence; 15 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-15; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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Politics, UK – Fitch, Moody's, or S&P next downgrade the United Kingdom's long-term local or foreign currency issuer ratings before the 30th of March 2019. ( 20% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2019-01-07; known on 2019-03-30; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-03-30.
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Politics, UK – Before 30 March 2019, the UK and European Council agree to extend the Article 50 deadline. ( 46% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-22; known on 2019-03-30; judged right by jbeshir on 2019-03-30.
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Politics, UK – Before 30 March 2019, the UK revokes Article 50. ( 10% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-22; known on 2019-03-30; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-03-30.
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Blackout in Venezuela continues through Friday ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-28; known on 2019-03-29; judged right by pranomostro on 2019-03-30.
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The UK to leave the EU without a deal on 29 March ( 14% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-03-30; judged wrong by 6thNapoleon on 2019-03-30.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep this week (starting the night of 2019-03-22). ( 7% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-03-29; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-29.
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I will still be using Prediction Book in 1 year's time. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-29; known on 2019-03-29; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-03-29.
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Felix Sater testifies publicly before the House Intelligence Committee on March 27th 2019 ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-25; known on 2019-03-28; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-27.
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Emergent Ventures will provide a grant to Kernel (my project) ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by bendini on 2018-11-22; known on 2019-02-19; judged wrong by bendini on 2019-03-26.
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[Politics] Robert Mueller to have submitted final report on Trump-Russia investigation by end of July 2019 ( 60% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-08-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-24.
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[Fighting] Borys Mańkowski to beat Norman Parke at KSW 47 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-03-24; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-23.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep this week (starting the night of 2019-03-15). ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-15; known on 2019-03-22; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-22.
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Another Soyuz Fregat stage suffers some form of failure that leads to the loss or incorrect insertion of one or more satellites in the next two years. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-22; known on 2019-03-22; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-03-22.
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Etherium will be more valuable than Bitcoin. ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by s.zirai@live.de on 2018-03-20; known on 2019-03-20; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-03-21.
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[Politics] New Zealand to ban new sales of semi-automatic rifles in 2019 H1 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2019-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-03-21.
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[Politics] New Zealand to ban new sales of semi-automatic rifles in 2019 ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-03-21.
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[US FOMC March rate decision to be:] leave rate unchanged ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-03-21; judged right by Cato on 2019-03-21.
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[US FOMC March rate decision to be:] raise rate ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-03-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-21.
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[US FOMC March rate decision to be:] reduce rate ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-03-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-21.
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[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Mewtwo ( 50% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.
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[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Dr Mario ( 80% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.
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[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Marth ( 20% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.
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[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Rob ( 65% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.
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[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Diddy Kong ( 15% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.
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[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Fox ( 10% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.
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[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Donkey Kong ( 58% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.
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[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Bowser ( 55% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.
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[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Captain Falcon ( 40% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.
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[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Inkling ( 50% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.
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[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Sheik ( 15% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.
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[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Link ( 45% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.
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[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Samus ( 55% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.
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[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Falco ( 55% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.
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[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Ike ( 65% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.
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[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] King Dedede ( 75% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.
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[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Kirby ( 75% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.
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[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Zelda ( 80% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.
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[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Jigglypuff ( 72% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.
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[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Ganondorf ( 69% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.
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No new states adopt the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-02-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by amadeu on 2019-03-18.
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The Yellow Jackets are still active and present in media in March ( 64% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Osuniev on 2019-01-27; known on 2019-03-16; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-03-17.
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The web page had different behavior before a recent code change. ( 75% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-16.
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Blackout in Venezuela continues through Monday, 3/18/2019 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-13; known on 2019-03-18; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-16.