Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 46% | 64% | 63% | 73% | 88% | 98% | |
Sample Size | 93 | 90 | 144 | 143 | 508 | 165 | 1143 |
Displaying all predictions made by Bruno Parga. Filter by:
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[Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year:] 105 ( 80% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-01.
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[Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year:] 115 ( 70% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-01.
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[Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year:] 125 ( 60% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-01.
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[Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year:] 130 ( 50% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-01.
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[Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year:] 135 ( 5% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-01.
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Personal: I still actively use Facebook and follow friends ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-02; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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Personal: I still read reddit frequently ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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[Personal – my weight in kg is] <90 ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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[Personal – my weight in kg is] <95 ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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[Personal – my weight in kg is] <100 ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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[Personal – my weight in kg is] <85 ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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[Personal – my weight in kg is] <80 ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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[Personal – my weight in kg is] <75 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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[My total days exercised this year:] 170 ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-11-03.
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[My total days exercised this year:] 180 ( 46% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-11-03.
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[My total days exercised this year:] 190 ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-11-03.
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[My total days exercised this year:] 200 ( 80% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-05.
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[My total days exercised this year:] 210 ( 75% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-05.
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[My total days exercised this year:] 220 ( 70% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-05.
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[My total days exercised this year:] 230 ( 65% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-05.
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[My total days exercised this year:] 240 ( 60% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-05.
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[My total days exercised this year:] 250 ( 55% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-05.
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[My total days exercised this year:] 260 ( 50% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-05.
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[My total days exercised this year:] 262 ( 5% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-05.
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[Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year so far:] 200 ( 5% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-05.
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[Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year so far:] 195 ( 50% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-05.
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[Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year so far:] 180 ( 60% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-05.
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[Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year so far:] 165 ( 70% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-05.
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[Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year so far:] 150 ( 80% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-05.
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[Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year so far:] 135 ( 90% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-05.
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The African Continental Free Trade Agreement has 22 ratifications or more. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-01.
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Politics, UK – Before 30 March 2019, the UK revokes Article 50. ( 10% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-22; known on 2019-03-30; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-03-30.
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Politics, UK – Before 30 March 2019, the UK and European Council agree to extend the Article 50 deadline. ( 46% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-22; known on 2019-03-30; judged right by jbeshir on 2019-03-30.
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Vladimir Putin won't be the President of the Russian Federation by March 2024 (i.e. he won't be able to finish his 4th term) ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Stommelen on 2018-12-21; known on 2024-03-17.
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Britain will have a second referendum on “Brexit.” ( 18% confidence; 19 wagers )
Created by balfours_ghost on 2018-12-11; known on 2019-03-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-04-24.
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Politics – North Korea conducts a nuclear test before 1 January 2020. ( 36% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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By 2021, there is a company with >$100M net profit whose core product critically depends on blockchain. ( 15% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2018-12-01; known on 2021-12-31; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-01.
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US will have universal health care system by 2022 ( 13% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by amadeu on 2018-11-12; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-01-01.
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Jets will win the super bowl ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by rimbalzanoo on 2018-11-08; known on 2019-02-14; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-08.
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There won't be any team from Russia in Champions League play-offs in 2018 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Stommelen on 2018-10-03; known on 2018-12-13; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-28.
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A Democratic House will impeach President Trump before the 2020 elections ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by lukefreeman on 2018-09-11; known on 2020-11-10; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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I have exercised 260 days this year. ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-05-31; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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I have exercised 250 days this year. ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-05-31; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-17.
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North Korea explodes a nuclear missile outside of internationally recognized North Korean territory ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
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andrew yang will be president ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kingsheepman on 2018-03-31; known on 2018-03-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-04-01.
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The market capitalization of Ethereum (ETH) will overtake the market capitalization of Bitcoin (BTC) before the end of January 2019. ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Anidrania on 2018-02-26; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-02-01.
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[I will have finished the deep learning course by] May 13 ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-20; known on 2018-06-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-05-17.
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[I will have finished the deep learning course by] May 6 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-20; known on 2018-06-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-05-13.
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[I will have finished the deep learning course by] April 29 ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-20; known on 2018-06-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-05-02.
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[I will have finished the deep learning course by] April 22 ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-20; known on 2018-06-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-04-27.
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[I will have finished the deep learning course by] April 15 ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-20; known on 2018-06-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-04-16.
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[I will have finished the deep learning course by] April 8 ( 20% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-20; known on 2018-06-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-04-09.
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[I will have finished the deep learning course by] April 1 ( 10% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-20; known on 2018-06-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-04-01.
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[I will have finished the deep learning course by] March 25 ( 5% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-20; known on 2018-06-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-03-31.
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[I will have finished the deep learning course by] March 18 ( 1% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-20; known on 2018-06-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-03-25.
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[I will have finished the deep learning course by] June 3 ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-20; known on 2018-06-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-06-08.
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I have exercised 200 days this year. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-11; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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I have exercised 150 days this year. ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-11; known on 2018-10-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-08-02.
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I have exercised 100 days this year. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-11; known on 2018-07-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-05-31.
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I have exercised 50 days this year. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-11; known on 2018-04-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-03-15.
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Current Iranian regime is overthrown by April 2018 ( 6% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2018-01-02; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2018-04-02.
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[Trump's approval rating on 2/1/18 as aggregated by 538 is] ≤30% ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-02-01.
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[Trump's approval rating on 2/1/18 as aggregated by 538 is] ≥40.1% ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-02-01.
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[Trump's approval rating on 2/1/18 as aggregated by 538 is] 37.6%–40% ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-02-01; judged right by ccokeefe on 2018-02-01.
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[Trump's approval rating on 2/1/18 as aggregated by 538 is] 35.1%–37.5% ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-02-01.
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[Trump's approval rating on 2/1/18 as aggregated by 538 is] 30.1%–35% ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-02-01.
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Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf to win the Ibrahim Prize ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-12-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-04-21.
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Tillerson will be SoS on 12/31/18 ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-30; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Jeff Sessions will be AG on 12/31/18 ( 51% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-29; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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UK is still, and has continuously been, a full member state of EU during this prediction. ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2017-12-28; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2020-03-31.
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Elizabeth Warren will win the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination ( 8% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-27; known on 2020-10-01; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
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[No new polio cases in the semester ending] 31 December 2019 ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-23; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-08-14.
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[No new polio cases in the semester ending] 31 December 2022 ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-23; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-01-01.
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[No new polio cases in the semester ending] 30 June 2022 ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-23; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-01-01.
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[No new polio cases in the semester ending] 30 June 2021 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-23; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-07-01.
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[No new polio cases in the semester ending] 31 December 2020 ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-23; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-09-13.
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[No new polio cases in the semester ending] 30 June 2020 ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-23; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-06-11.
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[No new polio cases in the semester ending] 30 June 2019 ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-23; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-05.
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[No new polio cases in the semester ending] 31 December 2018 ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-23; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-08-27.
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[No new polio cases in the semester ending] 30 June 2018 ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-23; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-03-15.
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Falcon Heavy to launch (successfully or not) in January 2018. ( 52% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2017-12-21; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-02.
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Trump will be President on 12/31/18 ( 85% confidence; 18 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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President Trump will be impeached by 12/31/18 ( 11% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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President Trump will be impeached by 12/31/17. ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01.
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[German government formation, 2017:] “German flag” coalition – Union/SPD/FDP (includes minority gov't) ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-14; known on 2018-03-24; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-03-15.
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[German government formation, 2017:] Grand coalition – Union/SPD ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-14; known on 2018-03-24; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-03-15.
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[German government formation, 2017:] Coalition talks still ongoing ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-14; known on 2018-03-24; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-03-15.
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[German government formation, 2017:] A new election is called ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-14; known on 2018-03-24; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-03-15.
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[German government formation, 2017:] Any government with any form of support from Left or AfD ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-14; known on 2018-03-24; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-03-15.
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[German government formation, 2017:] Minority government; Left and AfD in opposition ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-14; known on 2018-03-24; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-03-15.
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[German government formation, 2017:] “Jamaica” coalition – Union/FDP/Greens ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-14; known on 2018-03-24; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-03-15.
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Democrats to gain control of US Senate in 2018 elections ( 43% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2017-12-14; known on 2018-11-07; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2018-11-07.
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Brazilians will elect Geraldo Alckmin as president in 2018 ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by brunoarine on 2017-12-12; known on 2018-11-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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Btc below 7k USD before 2018 ( 13% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Leohmarruda on 2017-12-03; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by objclone on 2018-01-01.
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Facebook will match at least $1,000,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-11-24; known on 2018-11-29; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2017-12-05.
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Facebook will match at least $500,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-11-24; known on 2018-11-29; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2017-12-05.
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Facebook will match at least $250,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-11-24; known on 2018-11-29; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2017-12-05.
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Facebook will match at least $125,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-11-24; known on 2018-11-29; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2017-12-05.
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Facebook will match at least $64,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-11-24; known on 2018-11-29; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2017-12-05.
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Facebook will match at least $32,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-11-24; known on 2018-11-29; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2017-12-05.