Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 58% | 60% | 85% | 93% | 100% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 142 | 326 | 108 | 67 | 74 | 3 | 720 |
Displaying all predictions made by RandomThinker. Filter by:
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50% chance of AI by 2028 —Shane Legg ( 23% confidence; 29 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2028-01-01.
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By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. — Alyssa Vance ( 41% confidence; 14 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-11-24; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-01-08.
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The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican. ( 15% confidence; 17 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.
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Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 33% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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“within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million.” —Dennis Mangan ( 65% confidence; 12 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-21; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2022-01-05.
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HBO's Game of Thrones is not cancelled before covering all ASoIaF books (including upcoming ones). ( 51% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-31; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by davatk on 2019-06-13.
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Elizabeth Warren will win the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination ( 8% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-27; known on 2020-10-01; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
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Packers sign Milwaukee native Colin Kaepernick as QB, who leads them to the Superbowl ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2017-10-16; known on 2018-02-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-12.
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Trump announces somewhere that he eventually won the “Muslim ban” court fight ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-02-05; known on 2017-06-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-06-01.
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The 2020 presidential election will be Donald Trump v. Oprah Winfrey. ( 3% confidence; 25 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2017-01-16; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
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Mark Zuckerberg will run in the 2020 USA presidential elections. ( 9% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-14; known on 2019-08-16; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2019-08-16.
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Hillary Clinton will run for president and be nominated by the Democrats and win the election in 2016. ( 38% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Marco Rubio to be the Republican nominee in 2016. ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-25; known on 2016-07-20; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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At least one financial collapse will happen to the US in the 2020s ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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Humanity to land on Phobos before landing on Mars ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-20; known on 2090-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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Airbnb to be acquired by 2025 ( 34% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-17; known on 2026-01-01.
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Google will acquire Yelp by 2018 ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Google will acquire Quora by 2020 ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2021-06-11.
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Ellen Pao will no longer be CEO of Reddit by September 1, 2015 ( 30% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2015-07-09; known on 2015-09-01; judged right by gwern on 2015-07-10.
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ECB to withdraw Greek ELA before the end of the week. Withdraw means complete end to ELA. ( 29% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by modulus on 2015-07-06; known on 2015-07-11; judged wrong by modulus on 2015-07-11.
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Mitt Romney will decide to run for President in 2016 ( 12% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by SalTnutZ1 on 2015-07-05; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-31.
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Hillary Clinton to be the next US President, and win popular vote by at least 4.5% ( 27% confidence; 17 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-05; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Apple will buy Tesla by 2020 ( 17% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ira on 2015-06-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-01-02.
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Jeb Bush to be the 2016 Republican nominee. ( 49% confidence; 18 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-17; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-02-21.
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Bernie Sanders to still be in the race by March 8th, 2016 ( 77% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-06; known on 2016-03-08; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-08.
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The U.S. federal reserve will raise the federal funds target rate above 0.25% by June 2016 ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by benwr on 2015-01-11; known on 2016-06-02; judged right by kuudes on 2015-12-16.
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Hillary chooses Julian Castro as her running mate ( 34% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2015-05-05; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-23.
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Hillary chooses Sanders as running mate. ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-05-04; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-23.
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Clippers beat the Rockets ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-04; known on 2015-05-18; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-18.
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Warriors beat the Grizzlies ( 84% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-03; known on 2015-05-17; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-16.
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Hawks beat the Wizards ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-03; known on 2015-05-17; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-16.
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Bernie Sanders to win the Democratic nomination. ( 18% confidence; 66 wagers; 38 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-02; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-10.
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Bernie Sanders to be the next elected President of the United States ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-01; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-10.
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Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ( 41% confidence; 20 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-13; known on 2030-01-01.
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Saudis will cut oil production sometime in 2015. ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2015-03-28; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-31.
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The TV show “The Walking Dead” will have at least 10 completed seasons before 2025. ( 45% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Mati on 2015-03-28; known on 2025-01-01.
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Sam Altman: Stripe, Zenefits, Instacart, Mixpanel, Teespring, Optimizely, Coinbase, Docker, and Weebly to be collectively worth at least $27b by Jan 1, 2020 ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2015-03-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by qznc on 2020-01-03.
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Sam Altman: Current YC Winter 2015 batch worth at least $3b by Jan 1, 2020 ( 67% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2015-03-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by qznc on 2020-01-03.
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Sam Altman: Uber, Palantir, Airbnb, Dropbox, Pinterest, and SpaceX to be collectively worth over $200b by Jan 1, 2020 ( 45% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2015-03-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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China's Real GDP Growth between 2015-1017 will be below the United State's. ( 12% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2015-03-24; known on 2017-12-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-29.
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Roberts votes with the majority on King v Burwell ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-08-01; judged right by David on 2015-06-25.
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At least 25% of American personal car travel will be via self-driving cars by February 24, 2020. ( 4% confidence; 17 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-24; known on 2020-02-24; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-02-24.
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Like Bob Dole, Romney will be more popular 2 years after the election than during the election ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07; known on 2014-12-31; judged unknown by RandomThinker on 2015-01-11.
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Fabrice Tourre will lose his insider trading trial ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-07-31; known on 2013-08-15; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-08-01.
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North Korea’s government will not collapse (whether due to revolt/civil war, or war with another country) before Dec 31, 2015. ( 93% confidence; 20 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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Republican VP candidate in 2016 will be Nikki Haley. ( 23% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2015-01-10; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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General consensus that North Korea is behind the Sony hack attack by January 1, 2016 ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-20; known on 2016-01-01.
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By January 1, 2019 War between North Korea and at least one of the US, Britain, China, Japan, South Korea, or the collapse of the North Korean government. ( 25% confidence; 15 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-19; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Democrats to gain control of the US Senate in the 2016 elections. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-04; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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We'll have another dot-com boom by 2016 (NASDAQ reaching 5k) ( 50% confidence; 9 wagers; 16 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-10; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2015-03-06.
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In hindsight, Uber valued at $40b will be identified as the one of key triggers of the 2014-2016 bubble. ( 30% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2014-11-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.
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Hillary Clinton will not become the next president of the USA ( 70% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by truerepublican on 2014-10-18; known on 2016-11-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Bill Simmons: Sports gambling legal in the US by 2020 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2014-09-06; known on 2020-12-31.
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The Legend of Korra will not be cancelled before Book 4 is finished. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Calien on 2014-08-19; known on 2015-12-16; judged right by Calien on 2015-01-06.
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Assange leaves the embassy within a year. ( 39% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-08-18; known on 2015-08-18; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-08-18.
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Microsoft is gonna change its OS's name from Windows to something else within 5 years because people hate Windows. ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2019-08-02; judged wrong by IlliaHalaituk on 2019-08-03.
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Assuming Hulu is acquired by end of 2013, Google will buy Hulu ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-11; known on 2013-12-31.
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A wsop bracket winner makes the November 9. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by cdf12345 on 2014-07-08; known on 2014-08-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2014-07-16.
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Google is more likely to buy Square than Apple (conditioned on being bought by 1 of the 2 by end of 2013) ( 65% confidence; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-06-09; known on 2014-01-01.
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Former French President Nicolas Sarkozy will not be tried before the end of 2015, for the affair he has been indicted today. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by clemux on 2014-07-02; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-10.
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Iraq splits into 3, (either 3 distinct states or a single federal government of 3 autonomous regions), before 2020 ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Iraq splits into 3, (either 3 distinct states or a single federal government of 3 autonomous regions), before 2016 ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-25; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2016-01-05.
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If the USG bombs Syria before 2014, then by the year 2015 Syria will be a democracy and the two largest political parties will be secular. ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-09-10; known on 2015-01-01.
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“The average European unemployment rate for 2009-2018 (i.e., the next decade) will be at least 1% higher than U.S. unemployment rate.” Bryan Caplan ( 73% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-24; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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The European Union will start raising Union-level taxes (similar to US' federal taxation) by 2030 ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-19; known on 2031-01-01.
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“no matter how many scare headlines you read, ISIS will never take Baghdad” – The war nerd. ( 77% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-18; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2016-01-05.
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Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black. ( 13% confidence; 24 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-17; known on 2024-06-16.
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Nick Clegg will remain in the cabinet until the next general election. ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-06; known on 2015-05-07; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-05-05.
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Ed Miliband will lead the Labour party to the next general election. ( 75% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-26; known on 2015-05-07; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-05-05.
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On Jan 1st the government in Kiev will be generally recognised as being in de facto control of all of 2013 Ukraine except for Crimea, which will be part of Russia de facto. ( 55% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-26; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-01-02.
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Conditional on the UK holding an in-out referendum on the EU before 7 May 2020 the winner will be OUT. ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-22; known on 2020-05-07; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-09.
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The San Antonio Spurs will win their 2nd round series against the Portland Trailblazers. ( 84% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-05; known on 2014-05-20; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2014-05-15.
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The Miami Heat will win their 2nd round series against the Brooklyn Nets (2014). ( 89% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-05; known on 2014-05-19; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2014-05-15.
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Indiana Pacers will win their 2nd round series against the Washington Wizards (2014). ( 65% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-05; known on 2014-05-19; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2014-05-16.
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Oklahoma City Thunder will win their 2nd round series against the Los Angeles Clippers (2014). ( 56% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by avipacker on 2014-05-05; known on 2014-05-19; judged right by avipacker on 2014-05-16.
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There will be a Israel Palestinian peace deal before the end of Obama's term. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2014-04-17; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-31.
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R+L=J ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-13; known on 2019-03-13; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2019-03-13.
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Dorian S. Nakamoto is the Satoshi Nakamoto. (Nobody will prove / find really compelling evidence as to why Dorian is not Satoshi in 2014) ( 31% confidence; 27 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by Tenoke on 2014-03-06; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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Russia annexes Crimea this year. ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by lettergram on 2014-03-03; known on 2015-03-03; judged right by Tuxedage on 2014-06-17.
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By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ( 54% confidence; 42 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by ZLM on 2014-02-10; known on 2025-01-01; judged unknown by lavalamp on 2014-08-21.
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Scotland votes 'yes' for independence. ( 38% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-31; known on 2014-09-19; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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Google will include Bitcoin in the list of currencies that you can automatically convert through the search bar in 2014. ( 39% confidence; 23 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tenoke on 2014-01-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by adbge on 2014-07-30.
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'Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.' will continue for a second season. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by bluebart on 2014-01-24; known on 2014-09-24; judged right by RandomThinker on 2014-07-07.
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There'll be an official e-cash system (in competition with bitcoins or whatever the surviving coin system is) by end of 2024. ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2014-01-25; known on 2024-12-31.
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Netflix still won't have random shuffle playlists or per episode playlists by end of 2014 ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2014-01-23; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2015-01-11.
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News will report stories of robotic submission of NCAA pool entries to Warren Buffett's 2014 pool. ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2014-01-23; known on 2014-05-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2014-07-07.
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2014: No one will win $1billion from Warren Buffett by submitting a perfect NCAA pool ( 99% confidence; 16 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2014-01-23; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2014-03-27.
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Princeton researchers: Facebook will lose 80% of its users by end of 2017 ( 15% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2014-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Mati on 2017-12-31.
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Ronda Rousey will remain the UFC women's bantamweight champion at the end of 2014 ( 90% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mad on 2014-01-21; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by mad on 2015-01-01.
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The Broncos will win the Super Bowl. ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-20; known on 2014-02-03; judged wrong by lettergram on 2014-02-03.
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Snowden will be granted an official pardon by Barack Obama by January 2015. ( 5% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by entropy on 2014-01-14; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by ciil on 2015-01-01.
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Dennis Rodman's basketball team will not win over the North Korean team ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2014-01-08; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2014-01-08.
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Green Bay will beat the San Francisco 49ers tomorrow. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-04; known on 2014-01-06; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2014-01-08.
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The Swiss Basic Income initiative will pass the vote and be implemented. ( 23% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-10-05; known on 2014-06-03; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
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A different cryptocurrency beats Bitcoin in market cap at some point during the year. ( 7% confidence; 31 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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Spotify will overtake iTunes as the main source of music distribution in the United States, United Kingdom and Ireland. ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by DillonNolan on 2013-12-31; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.
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Clay Christensen: In 15 Years From Now Half of US Universities May Be in Bankruptcy ( 12% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-12-14; known on 2029-01-01.
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Chris Dixon: Amazon.com will be using bitcoins in 5 years (by 1/1/2019) ( 33% confidence; 26 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-12-13; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Nick Szabo is the real Satoshi Nakamoto ( 19% confidence; 30 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-12-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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“200 million [Ubuntu] users by 2015” -Shuttleworth's goal ( 3% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-04; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.