Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 65% | 67% | 73% | 88% | 91% | 80% | |
Sample Size | 1033 | 269 | 129 | 197 | 347 | 45 | 2020 |
Displaying all predictions made by themusicgod1. Filter by:
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'By 2030, we are likely to have developed no-frills brain-machine interfaces, allowing the paralysed to dance in their thought-controlled exoskeleton suits.' —David Eagleman ( 32% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2030-01-01.
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'In 25 years, I bet there'll be many products we'll be allowed to buy but not see advertised – the things the government will decide we shouldn't be consuming because of their impact on healthcare costs or the environment but that they can't muster the po ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2035-01-01.
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Polio in the wild eliminated by 2025 —Tachi Yamada ( 58% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2025-01-01.
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AIDS vaccine by 2035 —Tachi Yamada ( 57% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2035-01-01.
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'We will eradicate malaria, I believe, to the point where there are no human cases reported globally in 2035' —Tachi Yamada ( 39% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2036-01-01.
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“In 2035, there is thus a good prospect that Britain will be the most populous (our birth rate will be one the highest in Europe), dynamic and richest European country…” —Will Hutton ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2035-01-01.
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Copyright on Steamboat Willy will be extended in some manner past 2023. ( 82% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-30; known on 2023-01-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2023-01-02.
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'I think it is probable that we could get a connectome of the human brain within 4 to 7 years.' —Mike ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known on 2017-01-06; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-06.
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'high-end gaming PCs will still have dedicated GPU chips somewhere in them in 2020, and that those chips will cost at least $200 for top-of-the-range and at least $100 for mid range' —Roko ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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'The graphics card market collapses due to them overshooting consumer demand* and possibly being subsumed by new CPUs.' by 2020 —Shane Legg ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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India's GDP in PPP will be roughly half that of the EU or USA in 2020. —Shane Legg ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-30.
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'Chinese GDP on a PPP basis will be roughly comparable to that of the US and the EU (i.e. within 25%)' in 2020 —Shane Legg ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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“[In 2036, most] Companies that are currently large, debt-laden, listed on an exchange… and paying bonuses will be gone.” – Nassim Taleb (I interpret this less literally to large cap companies as usually structured now, 2010, based on context – NS) ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2010-11-28; known on 2037-01-01.
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“[In 2036] The great top-down nation-state will be only cosmetically alive… The pre-modernist robust model of city-states… will prevail” — Nassim Taleb ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2010-11-26; known on 2037-01-01.
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A large-scale persistant Alternate Reality game is created which sets a “cyberspace grafitti” sort of layer on top of reality; sells poorly, but trudges on with a cult following. ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kallman on 2010-11-22; known on 2030-01-01.
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The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade ( 67% confidence; 22 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by kallman on 2010-11-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2021-09-10.
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Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022 ( 6% confidence; 20 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by raavin on 2010-11-18; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-12-31.
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'more than half of Baby Boomers will live healthy lives beyond 100' —Ron Klatz ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-14; known on 2049-01-01.
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Most human workers spend the majority of their time acquiring new skills and knowledge by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 2% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Most learning is accomplished through intelligent, adaptive courseware presented by computer-simulated teachers. In the learning process, human adults fill the counselor and mentor roles instead of being academic instructors. —Ray Kurzweil ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Massively parallel neural nets and genetic algorithms are in wide use by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 95% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-02-09.
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Three-dimensional nanotube lattices are the dominant computing substrate by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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Wireless electricity is ubiquitous in 2026 ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-11; known on 2027-01-01.
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The United States of Africa is established by 2026 ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-11; known on 2027-01-01.
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Contact with the Voyager probes is lost by 2026 ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-11; known on 2027-01-01.
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“I would put the odds of an independent [Bloomberg] candidacy for President in 2012 or 2016 at probably sixty to seventy per cent” —Joe Trippi ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-09; known on 2016-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-06-01.
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“Within 50 years it will be the dominant paradigm within particle physics that all leptons and quarks are each composed of three pairs of two opposite types of black hole and that a pair of these black holes, when merged, form the underlying units from wh ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-08; known on 2060-11-07.
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“China's current regime will be overthrown or reformed (another political Party come into power) before 2020” ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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By 2050 most computer hardware will no longer be binary. ( 18% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-10-31; known on 2050-01-01.
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Mass casaulties (>3000) from bioterrorism by 2030 ( 51% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-30; known on 2031-01-01.
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'Vertical farms are appearing in many cities' by 2025 ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-29; known on 2026-01-01; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-09.
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'China's economy continues to boom' in 2025 ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-29; known on 2026-01-01.
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'Africa and the Middle East are linked by a transcontinental bridge' by 2025 ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-29; known on 2026-01-01.
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Rotating computer hard drives are no longer used. —Ray Kurzweil ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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Cables connecting computers and peripherals have almost completely disappeared. —Ray Kurzweil ( 29% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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Most business transactions or information inquiries involve dealing with a simulated person. —Ray Kurzweil ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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People experience 3-D virtual reality through glasses and contact lenses that beam images directly to their retinas (retinal display). Coupled with an auditory source (headphones), users can remotely communicate with other people and access the Internet. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-14.
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Computers are embedded everywhere in the environment (inside of furniture, jewelry, walls, clothing, etc.). —Ray Kurzweil ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2020-01-02.
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The summed computational powers of all computers is comparable to the total brainpower of the human race. —Ray Kurzweil ( 55% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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A $1,000 personal computer has as much raw power as the human brain. —Ray Kurzweil ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03.
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Three-dimensional nanotube lattices are the dominant computing substrate. —Ray Kurzweil ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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'African elephants are on the brink of extinction' in 2024 ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2025-01-01.
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Petabyte storage devices are available in 2024 ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2025-01-01.
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Solar Probe Plus flies into Sun's corona in 2024 ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2025-01-01.
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“2061 Halley's Comet returns – first landing by humans, And the sensational discovery of both dormant and active life forms vindicates Wickramasinghe and Hoyle's century-old hypothesis that life exists through space.” —Arthur C. Clarke ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2062-01-01.
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'2045 The totally self-contained mobile home (envisaged almost a century ago by Buckminster Fuller) is perfected. Any additional carbon needed from food synthesis is obtained by extracting carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2046-01-01.
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'2040 The “Universal Replicator,” based on nanotechnology, is perfected: any object, however complex, can be created – given the necessary raw materials. Diamonds or gourmet meals can, literally, be made from dirt.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2041-01-01.
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'2025 Neurological research finally leads to an understanding of all the senses, and direct input becomes possible, bypassing ears, eyes, skin, etc. The result is the metal “Braincap.” Anyone wearing this close-fitting helmet can enter a whole universe of ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2026-01-01.
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'2024 Infrared signals are detected coming from the centre of the Galaxy, obviously the product of a technologically advanced civilisation. All attempts to decipher them fail.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2025-01-01.
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'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 1% confidence; 26 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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'Borneo’s rainforests have been wiped from the map' by 2023 ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2024-01-01.
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'Gorillas are extinct in Central Africa' by 2023 ( 22% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2024-01-01.
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'Turkey becomes self-sufficient in energy production' by 2023 ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2024-01-01.
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'A permanent cure for migraine is available' by 2023 ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2024-01-01.
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'Artificial Intelligence reaches human level. From now on there are two intelligent species on Earth.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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'A major meteor impact occurs on the north polar ice cap. The resulting tsunamis cause considerable damage along the coasts of Greeland and Canada. The long-discussed “Project Spaceguard,” to identify and deflect potentially dangerous comets or asteroids, ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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'Existing currencies are abolished. The “mega-watt-hour” becomes the universal unit of exchange.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 0% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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'Tooth regeneration is transforming dental care' by 2022 ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2023-01-01.
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'Piezoelectric nanowires are appearing in high-end products' by 2022 ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2023-01-01.
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Deafness cured by 2022 ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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'Fully reusable, single-stage-to-orbit spacecraft' in 2021 ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-24; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2022-01-01.
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CPUs switch from silicon to carbon nanotubes by 2022 ( 33% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-24; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2022-01-01.
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'Water crisis in southwest USA' in 2021 ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-24; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-08.
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There will be at least 1 wide-scale (>100 rioters) racial riot in South Korea in the 2020s. ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-24; known on 2030-01-01.
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'Complete organ replacements grown from stem cells' in 2020 ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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'Sweden becomes the first oil-free country' by 2021 ( 24% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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'Holographic TV is mainstream' in 2020 ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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'Texting by thinking' in 2020 ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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'Internet use reaches 5 billion worldwide' in 2020 ( 71% confidence; 10 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-03.
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“Global oil demand exceeds 100m barrels per day” in 2019 ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-02-09.
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the Large Aral Sea gone in 2019 ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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“Automated freight transport” widespread by 2030s ( 84% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-19; known on 2040-01-01.
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“Bionic eyes are commercially available” in 2019 ( 22% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-01-01.
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“The ITER experimental fusion reactor is switched on” in 2019 ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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“Acute spinal injuries are fully treatable” in 2019 ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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“The last of Nigeria's rainforests have disappeared” in 2018 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-18; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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“Anti-fat drugs are available” in 2018 ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-18; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-02-19.
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“Consumer devices with 100 Gbit/s transfer speeds” in 2018 ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-18; known on 2019-01-01.
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“Robot insect spies are in military use” in 2018 ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-18; known on 2019-01-01.
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By 2100 it's obvious to the average human that (1) Global warming is true and (2) it's actually a good thing: Resulting in a better climate then we have had in recorded history. A stable Wet-Sahara/Warm-Siberia/No Rainforest scenario. ( 48% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-10-17; known on 2100-01-01.
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The Betelgeuse star will be observed to die within 60 years ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2010-10-14; known on 2070-12-31.
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Teleportation of simple molecules by 2018 ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-01-08.
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Portable medical lasers that seal wounds by 2018 ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-01-08.
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e-paper in wide use by 2018 ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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Strait of Messina bridge completed by 2017 ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-05; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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HVD have replaced Blu-Ray by 2017 ( 6% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-05; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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A Myst live-action movie will not be released before 2020. ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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PredictionBook.com will not be an active prediction registry in 2025. ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-22; known on 2025-09-22; judged unknown by gwern on 2010-09-23.
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“within 15 years, Google will be buying what is left of Oracle” —imbcmdth ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-22; known on 2025-09-22.
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Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence. ( 11% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-09-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by jasticE on 2020-02-01.
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Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence. ( 10% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-09-16; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by komponisto on 2010-09-29.
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“10^18 FLOPS by 2020” —Shane Legg ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-11; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-01-25.
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Life will be discovered on Titan by 2030. ( 5% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by gwern on 2010-09-06.
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“By 2050 Baidu.com will surpass Google.com and become world's number 1 search engine.” —Yan Bashkin ( 30% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-30; known on 2050-01-01.
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By mid-2026, Iraq will have a lower 'Political Rights and Civic Voice' rating from Freedom House than it does now. ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-29; known on 2026-06-01.
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“By December 31, 2020, synthetic solar energy (fusion) will have been shown to be a technically feasible method of electrical power generation, by an experiment demonstrating a controlled fusion reaction producing more harnessable energy than was used to ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-28; known on 2020-12-31.
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A state will try to secede from the US. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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A state will try & succeed in seceding from the US. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2020-01-01.
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There will be an armed insurrection in the US involving >1000 combatants. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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Automated machines for custom shoes in widespread use. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 17% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.