Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 53% | 65% | 78% | 86% | 94% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 616 | 437 | 419 | 458 | 711 | 175 | 2816 |
Displaying all predictions made by JoshuaZ. Filter by:
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Sweatshops will be regarded as an essential step to modern prosperity by 2015 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Isaac on 2011-10-01; known on 2015-01-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-16.
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My next full practice SAT score will be over 2050 ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Isaac on 2011-10-01; known on 2011-10-15; judged wrong by Isaac on 2011-10-17.
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Within two years, consensus will be that Edward Nelson's current attempt at demonstrating a contradiction in PA fails. ( 82% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-27; known on 2013-09-27; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-01.
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Vettel to win f1 championship ( 97% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Laurablack on 2011-09-26; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-30.
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'Electric and hybrid trucks are now surpassing 100,000 in annual production numbers worldwide' in 2017 ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-01.
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'After a six year construction period, the Kingdom Tower opens in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.' in 2017 ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-01.
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'the countries of Iceland, Macedonia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Albania and Serbia have all joined the ranks of the EU member nations' by 2018 ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-01.
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'Cosmetic surgery has doubled its market size' (in 2017 compared to 2010) ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2019-06-30.
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'China launches an unmanned sample return mission to the Moon' ( 52% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-01.
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'A pill to prevent sunburn' is available either over-the-counter or by prescription ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-04.
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India's first manned spaceflight by 2017. ( 32% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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'Queen Elizabeth II becomes the longest reigning monarch in British history' ( 89% confidence; 27 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2015-09-10; judged right by kuudes on 2015-09-09.
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'The Internet has a greater reach than television' by/during 2014 (America) ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by supinf on 2015-08-05.
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The Gaia mission will launch in 2013 ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2014-01-01.
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The ROK-U.S. Combined Forces Command will be dissolved on schedule. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2012-04-17; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.
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“By 2040, less than 5% of the global population is smoking.” ( 40% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2040-01-01.
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Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023 ( 53% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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Switzerland to decommission all nuclear reactor by 2035. ( 54% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2035-01-01.
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The appearance of complex numbers in quantum mechanics has something to do with information propagating backwards through time regarding constraints on which possible world(s) may obtain. This is related to getting bits of Chaitin's omega by observing app ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-24; known on 2031-09-24.
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The Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite will strike a person, residence, or vehicle, where the impact results in at least one human death (that we know about) before 2011-10-25 ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-24; known on 2011-10-25; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-26.
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'Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 1 year' ( 70% confidence; 38 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-23; known on 2012-09-23; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-08.
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Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 3 months. ( 46% confidence; 46 wagers; 39 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-22.
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Michael House will reply within a week. ( 26% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-22; known on 2011-09-29; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-29.
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No euthanasia coaster will be built in the next 30 years. (See http://news.discovery.com/tech/euthanasia-sucicide-rollercoaster-ride-110919.html ) ( 87% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-21; known on 2041-09-21.
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By 2020, a former US government official will come forward to say that they were involved in planning the 9/11 attacks. ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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By 2020, one of Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, George W. Bush, Paul Wolfowitz, John Bolton, Richard Myers, or Peter Pace will state he had advanced knowledge of the 9/11 attacks or helped plan those attacks. ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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Southern Baptist Convention will not rename themselves in the next two years. ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-21; known on 2013-09-20; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-09-20.
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In ten years, people will be able to regenerate lost or damaged teeth for under $5k/tooth (2011 USD, inflation-adjusted). ( 48% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2011-09-20; known on 2021-09-16; judged wrong by papermachine on 2021-09-16.
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Qwikster will resurrect Red Envelope Entertainment or some similar film production and distribution arm within a year of the Qwikster/Netflix split. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by roxton on 2011-09-19; known on 2012-11-01; judged wrong by roxton on 2011-10-10.
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US Supercommittee to publish >=$1.5t deficit reduction by midnight 23 November 2011 ( 36% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-19; known on 2011-11-24; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-22.
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The Doctor (from Doctor Who) will exceed the usual regeneration limit via genetic looms, like the Other is rumored to have done. ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2011-09-19; known on 2013-10-16; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2013-12-26.
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SpaceX to successfully dock with the ISS by January 15, 2012 ( 30% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-19; known on 2012-01-15; judged wrong by kiba on 2012-01-15.
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SpaceX to successfully dock with the ISS by January 1, 2013 ( 75% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-19; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-05-25.
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Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory. ( 4% confidence; 23 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-14; known on 2051-09-15; judged unknown by Arets Paeglis on 2011-10-10.
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Mirror matter will be shown to make up at least 1% of dark matter. ( 17% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-14; known on 2021-09-14; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-09-14.
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Google + will have under 10 million users by 2013 ( 38% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Gedusa on 2011-09-14; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-04-08.
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I will improve the T >= (11/20)S bound by 2013. ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-14; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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I will be a USCF Master before I turn 23. ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-13; known on 2014-11-15; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-15.
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BitcoinEXpress attack on Namecoin will be successful in reversing the hashchain at least temporarily ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-13; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-30.
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Before 2022 UTC, any type of thermonuclear device will be detonated inside or within 6 km of Israel, Israeli-occupied territories, or West Bank, killing >= 1000 people in the first 24 hours ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-12; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-01.
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A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021 ( 29% confidence; 21 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-11; known on 2021-09-10; judged wrong by muflax on 2021-09-10.
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A professional athlete will not voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041. ( 38% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-11; known on 2041-01-01.
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There will be a major terrorist attack (>= 60 deaths) between 2011-09-10 20:00 UTC and 2011-09-12 06:00 UTC anywhere in the world except Afghanistan, Pakistan, or Iraq. ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-10; known on 2011-09-12; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-12.
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Another episode of Firefly featuring most of the original cast (whether real or emulated or CGI) will be made before 2052 ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-10; known on 2052-01-01.
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AOL & Yahoo to merge by 2013. ( 43% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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HP MoR: Eliezer will publish ch78 before 7PM PST 13 September 2011 ( 47% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-09; known on 2011-09-13; judged wrong by fergus on 2011-09-13.
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Gaddafi will be killed or captured ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Dylan on 2011-09-08; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by Dylan on 2011-09-30.
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GJP: the Saudi monarchy continue to rule Saudi Arabia as of March 1, 2012 ( 93% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2012-03-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-03-01.
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“King Abdullah to no longer be head of government in Saudi Arabia before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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GJP: Kim Jong-Il or his designated successor to be in charge of North Korea as of December 31, 2012 ( 86% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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Before the year 2300, there will be a Chabad on Mars. ( 30% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-05; known on 2300-01-01.
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No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests) ( 82% confidence; 32 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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PZ Myers will still identify as an atheist in one year. ( 98% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2012-09-04; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-09-04.
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Before December Roland will not make any bet with me over any 9/11 truth related claims and will not give estimates on PB for any of the related statements already added to PB ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-01.
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The Richard Dawkins article on Conservapedia will in one year have in its stable form a picture of at least one of Hitler, Stalin, or Lenin ( 81% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2012-09-04; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-09-04.
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The “Counterexamples to Relativity” page will still exist on Conservapedia in one year ( 92% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2012-09-04; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-09-04.
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LW User:Morendil will tag >=500 predictions on PB.com using my suggested ad hoc scheme. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-04; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-02.
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By the end of 2012, there will be a general consensus that the gold bubble has burst. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Michael Stevens on 2013-01-01.
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Florian Luca and Carl Pomerance's bound on the radical of a perfect number will be improved within 3 years by replacing the 17/26 exponent with some smaller exponent. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-03; known on 2015-09-03; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-03.
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Usain Bolt will leave a positive doping test before or during the London Olympics ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-09-03; known on 2012-09-03; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-08-13.
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By 2018, an editorial in either the New York Times or the Wall Street Journal will call for an investigation into whether the 9/11 Truth movement's accusations are correct. ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-02; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2018-01-01.
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By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ( 13% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-02; known on 2035-01-01.
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By 2025, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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By 2020, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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By 2030 consensus will be that low Earth orbit is undergoing Kessler syndrome. ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-02; known on 2031-01-01.
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I will be killed or more than slightly injured skydiving for the first time Saturday ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-01; known on 2011-09-04; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-03.
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I will be put on moderation/expelled from the Miyazaki mailing list for providing a public archive ( 39% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-01; known on 2011-10-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-01.
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Before January 1, 2020, a quantum computer will be used to successfully factor an integer greater than 100 using Shore’s algorithm or some similar algorithm. ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-31; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-10-07.
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Before January 1, 2045, a quantum computer will be used to successfully factor an integer greater than 100 using Shore's algorithm or some similar algorithm. ( 69% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-31; known on 2045-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-09.
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Before January 1, 2030, a quantum computer will be used to successfully factor an integer greater than 100 using Shore's algorithm or some similar algorithm. ( 54% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-31; known on 2030-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-09.
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The judge will rule that Julian Assange be extradited to Sweden after hearings in July. ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-07; known on 2011-10-01; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-11-02.
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The current criteria for awarding the “Poseidon award” offered by the seastead insitute, will be met by someone by 2015. ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Konkvistador on 2011-08-30; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by a0c4a123f7 on 2016-01-01.
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The ISS will continue to have crew continuously through the end of November ( 83% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-30; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-01.
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I will watch one or more of Tokyo Godfathers, Gunslinger Girl, The Cat Returns, or Haibane Renmei before 2014-01-01 and really like one or more ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-30; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-18.
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“Bucky Larson: Born to Be a Star” will get an average critic's rating of between 20-30% on rottentomatoes.com ( 50% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Øx on 2011-08-29; known on 2011-09-18; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-18.
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Madonna's new movie “W.E.” will get 80% or better from critics on Rotten Tomatoes ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Øx on 2011-08-29; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-02.
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Anderson Cooper will come out on his daytime talk show. ( 23% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Øx on 2011-08-29; known on 2011-11-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-01.
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“Will Ron Paul to win a Republican primary/caucus in 2012?” —Intrade ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-29; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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A state will try to secede from the US in the next 25 years ( 12% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-29; known on 2036-08-29.
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2015-2016: German GDP growth > French and British GDP growth —Michael Pettis ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Spain, Greece, Portugal, and Ireland to leave the Euro —Michael Pettis ( 23% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-28; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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My apartment will not lose power during Hurricane Irene. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-26; known on 2011-09-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-29.
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There will be no statistically significant increase in neutrino levels detected by detectors attributable to the recent supernova in M101. ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-26; known on 2011-09-30; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-25.
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My DNS provider migration for 6 domains will not cause any downtime (incl. web and email), where downtime is caused by a misconfiguration on my part ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-25; known on 2011-08-28; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-30.
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Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored. ( 18% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-25; known on 2039-08-25.
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gwern will make a prediction on PredictionBook any time during 2012 (UTC) ( 96% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-03.
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Bitcoin stays >= $60 for at least 72 hours, any time before 2013-01-01 UTC ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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“Intrade.com to be open for business on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 97% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.
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“USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before midnight ET 30 Sep 2012” —Intrade ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-10-01; judged wrong by Pablo on 2012-10-01.
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“USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before midnight ET 31 Mar 2012” —Intrade ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-03-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-31.
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“Robert Mugabe to no longer be President of Zimbabwe before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
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“I expect Apple to move to a modular architecture where the building blocks for high performance computers are generally Mac Minis.” —Robert X Cringely ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2012-06-01; judged wrong by Michael Stevens on 2012-06-01.
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A Latin poem roughly the same as posted will appear in HP:MoR inside Bacon's diary either as a quote or written by Bacon. ( 67% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-01.
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“In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones” —Marc Andreessen ( 78% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-20; known on 2021-08-20; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2021-08-20.
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Google+ will revoke its ban on pseudonymous accounts within a year, due to SDr's petition campaign. ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-20; known on 2012-08-20; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-20.
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Google+ will revoke its ban on pseudonymous accounts within a year. ( 19% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-20; known on 2012-08-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-20.
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The Hubble Telescope will not deorbit before January 1, 2020. ( 67% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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The Hubble Telescope will deorbit before the end of 2025 ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-18; known on 2026-01-01.
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The kidnappings in Sanderson’s “The Alloy of Law” will turn out to be in order to construct a captive breeding program to make Mistborn ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-18; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-13.
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The kidnappings in Sanderson's “The Alloy of Law” will turn out to be in order to make hemalurgic spikes from the victims. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-18; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-08.