Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 53% | 65% | 78% | 86% | 94% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 616 | 437 | 419 | 458 | 711 | 175 | 2816 |
Displaying all predictions made by JoshuaZ. Filter by:
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Bharat cumulative installed electricity capacity will be over 600 GW by 2025 ( 84% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-17; known on 2025-12-28.
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Brasil will reduce 43% of its greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 from 2005 levels. ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-17; known on 2029-12-31.
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Brasil will reduce 37% of its greenhouse gas emissions by 2025 from 2005 levels—Dilma Rouseff ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-17; known on 2026-01-01.
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Toyota said by 2050, gas-electric hybrids, plug-in hybrids, fuel-cell cars and electric vehicles will account for most of its global vehicle sales. That means gasoline- and diesel-engine powered cars(85%) will be near zero. ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-17; known on 2045-10-18.
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DRACO proves effective. ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2040-01-01.
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Reduce food costs by $100 next month. ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2015-11-30; judged wrong by memoriesofbutter on 2015-11-30.
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I will get an 1800+ upon retaking the SAT. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2016-01-16.
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I will have sex with someone I don't know tonight ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-10-16; known on 2015-10-17; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-10-18.
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I will have sex with someone I know tonight ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-10-16; known on 2015-10-17; judged right by RoryS on 2015-10-18.
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Theranos will be given FDA approval for the majority of their finger prick blood tests. The FDA have already approved the herpes test, and I predict that the FDA will go on to approve (most of) the remainder of the tests submitted by Theranos. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by rhiannon on 2015-10-16; known on 2017-10-16.
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Neumann Space will be extremely successful (I'll be able to retire) ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by taryneast on 2015-10-15; known on 2016-10-15; judged wrong by taryneast on 2016-10-18.
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Quantum version of ETH disproven by January 1, 2056 ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-15; known on 2056-01-01.
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KIC 8462852's strange light patterns will be determined within a very high confidence to be natural by November 1, 2027 ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-14; known on 2027-10-02.
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Alexander Coward's firing from UC Berkeley Mathematics department will be overruled. ( 30% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-15; known on 2015-12-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-01.
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No human will land on another planet before 2050 and survive on that planet for at least 5 years. ( 54% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Hierophant on 2015-10-14; known on 2055-01-01.
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In the next 10 years Columbus Day will stop being a US federal holiday, or will be changed to Indigenous People's Day or some other non-Columbus-themed alternative. ( 25% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-13; known on 2025-10-13.
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Saudi Arabia and Turkey will be invaded by Russian forces before 2017. ( 9% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Znt on 2015-10-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Effective herpes vaccine developed by 2040 ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by btrettel on 2015-10-12; known on 2041-01-01.
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At least 50% of living Americans will need to barter for, hunt, or farm their own food for survival sometime between 2016 and 2050, including those years ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-10-12; known on 2051-01-01.
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Bashar Al-Assad government will control at least 50% of Syrian territory by next year. ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-12; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-12-31.
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Rossiya's real GDP growth for 2016 will be at least 0.7% for full year. ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-12; known on 2016-12-31.
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Of the 7 satellites of IRNSS satellite navigation constellation, 4 are already in orbit while the remaining 3 will be in place by March 2016. ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-12; known on 2016-03-30; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-27.
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The Majorana Demonstrator or its successor experiment will find 5-sigma evidence of neutrinoless double beta decay by January 1, 2020. ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-11; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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Bharat will have 294 5th gen fighters – 50% more than the USAF F-22s. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-24; known on 2030-12-25.
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Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar: 1 billion (Rs 6,600 crore) worth of defence equipment will be exported in three years. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-24; known on 2018-12-31.
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2025 there will be about 2.7 billion with excess weight, up from 2 billion in 2010. ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-10; known on 2025-05-28.
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The Australian National University will change the name or acronym of its Interactive Student Information System (ISIS) some time in the next year. ( 33% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-10-10; known on 2016-10-10; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-10-10.
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Paul Ryan will choose to run for Speaker of the House ( 53% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2015-10-09; known on 2015-11-01; judged right by danielfilan on 2015-10-23.
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I scored within 5% of an 80% on my physics prelim. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by azax1 on 2015-10-09; known on 2015-10-16; judged wrong by azax1 on 2015-10-22.
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I will have filed at least 1 application for a patent by 2020 ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-10-08; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-01-01.
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Only 21 LRS-Bs will actually be built. The Pentagon is planning to procure 80-100 LRS-Bs to replace the Air Force’s B-1 and B-52 bombers. The Pentagon won't achieve even 25% of its planned target. ( 57% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-08; known on 2030-12-31.
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finish bot by friday 22h ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2015-10-07; known on 2015-10-09; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2015-10-23.
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I will have at least two more papers published before September 15, 2016 ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-07; known on 2016-09-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-09-15.
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I will have at least one more paper published before September 15, 2016 ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-07; known on 2016-09-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-09-15.
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Zhongguo will be No 1 nation in nuclear power by 2022. ( 60% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-07; known on 2022-12-25.
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Demographer Sanjeev Sanyal of Deutsche Bank predicts The Big Shrink. World’s fertility rate at replacement rate in 2025 World population peak 2055 at 8.7 billion and decline to 8.0 billion by 2100. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-07; known on 2025-12-31.
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At least one major car brand not affiliated with WV will be caught for emission cheating during the next year ( 70% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by silacoid on 2015-10-07; known on 2016-10-07; judged right by kuudes on 2015-10-09.
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RuPay (रूपे) and China UnionPay (中国银联) will surpass Visa and Mastercard as a payment network. ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-07; known on 2025-05-28.
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In 2027(latest possible date) the EU and Ukraine will recognize the liberation of Crimea as an indivisible part of Rossiya(Россия). ( 53% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-07; known on 2027-12-31.
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Maldives will not have the same president or vice president at the end of 3/2016 as it has now (Yameen, Adeep). ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2015-10-06; known on 2016-03-31; judged right by kuudes on 2015-11-06.
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October 7th, 2015 will be the end of the world. – eBible Fellowship ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-06; known on 2015-10-08; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-10-08.
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It takes Newport News the better part of a decade to build a single supercarrier. China has no experience building any ship the size of an aircraft carrier—even a moderate-sized one like Liaoning. A minimum of 9 years can be inferred from their statement. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-06; known on 2020-12-25.
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001-A(山东/Shandong) aircraft carrier was predicted by National Interest to take 9 years. It will take 4.5 -5 years. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-06; known on 2019-12-25.
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250 GW of solar and 100 GW wind power by 2030. 40 % of Bharat's total power capacity(850 GW estimate) will come from renewable sources by 2030. Official Climate change pledge. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-06; known on 2030-12-31.
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Bharat's Department of Atomic Energy (DAE) target:63000 MWe by the year 2032. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-06; known on 2032-12-31.
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Nuclear power in Bharat will be 16 Gw by 2030. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-06; known on 2030-12-31.
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Bharat's nuclear power will double to 10 000 MW by 2020.https://tinyurl.com/qds7raq ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-06; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-09.
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FBI investigation will find no criminal activity on Hillary Clinton's part. ( 80% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-09-30; known on 2016-10-01; judged right by elephantower on 2016-09-28.
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Air Chief Marshal Arup Raha(IAF, भारतीय वायु सेना, Bharatiya Vāyu Senā) We are looking forward to building up our combat fleet to 42 squadrons by the end of the 14th plan, by 2027 ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-05; known on 2027-12-31.
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Extreme poverty(WB definition 1.90 per day) to be eliminated by 2025. Poverty declined from 36 % in 1990 to 15 per cent in 2011. Projections indicate that the global extreme poverty rate has fallen further, to 9.6%, as of 2015. ( 47% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-09; known on 2025-05-28.
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Within 30 years, the University of Maine will have a PhD program in mathematics (this does not count interdisciplinary with math). ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-04; known on 2045-10-04.
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Ronda Rousey will win her Nov. 14 fight with Holly Holm. ( 74% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-03; known on 2015-11-15; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-11-15.
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Chief of the World Coal Association (WCA) Benjamin Sporton “Demand for coal in 2040 globally will be 33 % bigger than it is now. " ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-03; known on 2030-12-25.
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I will trip over the ethernet cable across the living room doorway in the next week ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-10-03; known on 2015-10-10; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-10-13.
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USA will be No 1 nation in mass shootings for 2013-15. ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-03; known on 2015-12-25; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-19.
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Number of diesel vehicles sold in US will comprise more than 4% of total vehicles sold in 2020 ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-10-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by stepan on 2021-09-12.
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Them's Fightin' Herds will reach its funding goal. ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by timujin on 2015-10-02; known on 2015-10-22; judged right by timujin on 2015-10-19.
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Bharat will reduce emission intensity of the economy by 25% from its 2005 levels by 2020. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-02; known on 2020-12-25.
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Bharat will reduce emission intensity of the economy by 35% from its 2005 level by 2030 ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-02; known on 2030-12-31.
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Zhongguo(中国) will be world's largest economy in nominal(USD, current prices) terms by 2020. ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-02; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-30.
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Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-02; known on 2015-10-03; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-02.
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Antibiotics prescribed less than 415 times per 1000 Americans in 2050 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-10-01; known on 2051-01-01.
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Bharat will lead the world in 4G. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-01; known on 2018-12-11; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-20.
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Either the Koru flag or the Red Peak flag will be chosen in the first New Zealand flag referendum. ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-09-30; known on 2015-12-12; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-12-12.
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I will have sold all Bernie-no shares on PredictionBook that I currently own at a profit by October 10 ( 65% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-29; known on 2015-10-11; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-30.
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By 2060 under assumptions of ETH and that PH does not collapse, and PH != PSPACE != EXP, proven that factoring in Beta_P^GI / poly or that factoring in Beta_P^MSCP. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-29; known on 2061-01-01.
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A public, high-speed (at least 4G speed), backwards compatible and equivalent internet to the current fibre-based system, in the HF radio spectrum, suitable for at least national propagation between nodes, implemented by 2025 ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by luxpir on 2015-09-29; known on 2026-01-01.
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The next candidate to drop out of the Republican Presidential primary will be one of Jindal, Santorum, Gilmore, Pataki, Graham or Pence ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-27; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by danielfilan on 2015-11-18.
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Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-27; known on 2100-01-01.
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The US federal government to shut down before October 2nd ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-27; known on 2015-10-03; judged wrong by unexpectedEOF on 2015-10-01.
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The US to have a population between 310 million and 334 million on January 1, 2017 ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-27; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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The US to have a population between 300 million and 340 million on January 1, 2018 ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-27; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-01.
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Major Atmospheric Cerenkov Experiment Telescope, the world's 2nd largest γ ray telescope will be completed in 2017 ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-27; known on 2017-12-31.
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Chandrayaan-2 (चन्द्रयान-२) 2nd lunar exploration mission. Launched by GSLV includes a lunar orbiter, rover and a lander landing on the moon and exploring. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-27; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Bharat will produce 2.4—2.5 million tonne aluminium in 2015-16 and be ranked 3rd or 4th in the world from 2.1 million in 2014. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-27; known on 2016-12-25.
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Zhongguo(中国) will outspend the US on science by 2020 ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-27; known on 2020-12-25.
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I will not play a single game of chess online the remainder of 2015. ( 68% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-26; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2016-01-02.
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Somebody will run a World Record at the 2015 Berlin Marathon (as has happened 3 of the last 4, and 5 of the last 8 years). ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by tstelzig on 2015-09-26; known on 2015-09-27; judged wrong by tstelzig on 2015-09-30.
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I will accept an offer for a PhD program at UC Berkeley or Stanford. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-09-26; known on 2016-05-01; judged right by danielfilan on 2016-05-01.
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eBay, Inc. will spin off, sell, or shut down another one of its business units before 2023. ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2015-09-26; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by unexpectedEOF on 2017-12-11.
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NASA's Mars discovery announcement will involve indications of liquid water. ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2015-09-26; known on 2015-09-28; judged right by unexpectedEOF on 2015-09-28.
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The Angry Birds Movie will gross under 150 million in its first four weeks. ( 59% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-26; known on 2016-09-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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The average grade for the graph theory test for the math 101 students will be at least 75%. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-25; known on 2015-09-28; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-02.
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The average grade for the test for my Math 101 students in the 1 PM class will be higher than that for the 10 AM class. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-25; known on 2015-09-28; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-02.
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Pebbles (elderly pet Labrador) will still be alive by the end of 2016 ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-09-25; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2017-01-01.
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I will have a rating above 1500 on lichess.org at the end of 2015 ( 70% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-09-25; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
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I will stay sober until the end of 2015 ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-09-25; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Josh Holland on 2016-01-01.
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R(5,5) known by January 1, 2052 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-24; known on 2052-01-01.
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Antibiotics prescribed less than 50 times per 1000 Americans in 2050 ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-21; known on 2051-01-01.
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Paraplegia due to spinal cord injury cured in greater than 90% of cases before 2050 ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-24; known on 2050-01-01.
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Solar power to become cheaper than or equivalent to conventional coal prices over the next three years and reach Rs 4/kWh-Rs4.5/kWh by FY18, says India Ratings and Research. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-24; known on 2018-12-31.
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No Magic: The Gathering film will have been released in more than 1000 theaters by January 1st, 2020. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by aarongertler on 2015-09-24; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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Bhāratīya Nau Senā (भारतीय नौ सेना) wil be a 200 ship fleet by 2027 – Admiral P Murugesan ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-24; known on 2027-12-31.
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Mouse, rat, rabbit, or other small mammal successfully revived from cryopreservation before 2100 ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-24; known on 2100-01-01.
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Invisibility cloak capable of concealing human sized objects developed before 2050 ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-24; known on 2050-01-01.
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Kanye West elected President by 2032 — Scott Adams ( 0% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2015-09-23; known on 2032-11-10.
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Bank nonperforming loans will exceed 2% of gross total loans in China by the end of 2016. ( 63% confidence; 9 wagers; 38 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-09-23; known on 2017-01-02; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-02-25.
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Bank nonperforming loans will exceed 2.5% of gross total loans in China by the end of 2016. ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-09-23; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-08.
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The VIX index will go above 27 by October 1st 2015 ( 57% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-09-23; known on 2015-10-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-09-29.
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Faster-than-light communication developed before 2050 ( 1% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.