Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 52% | 70% | 74% | 67% | 85% | 98% | |
Sample Size | 94 | 50 | 53 | 79 | 294 | 46 | 616 |
Displaying all predictions made by two2thehead. Filter by:
-
Zootopia wins 2017 Oscar for Best Animated Feature ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-21; known on 2017-02-27; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-02-27.
-
Kubo and the Two Strings wins 2017 Oscar for Best Animated Feature ( 45% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-21; known on 2017-02-27; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-02-27.
-
SpaceX makes a successful launch on 2017-02-19. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-02-18; known on 2017-02-20; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-02-19.
-
Politics – More than 10,000 protesters marching in Washington DC on Monday 23rd January ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-01-21; known on 2017-01-24.
-
Mike Flynn (Michael T. Flynn) will not be the National Security Advisor before the end of 2017. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-02-13; known on 2018-01-15; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-02-14.
-
There will be a week during which it is more common to buy food with gold than any other form of money (e.g., USD) in some US settlement with at least 1000 people in 2017. ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by aseyfarth on 2017-01-31; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by aseyfarth on 2018-01-02.
-
Trump will win a second term ( 46% confidence; 74 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2020-11-08; judged wrong by regex on 2020-11-20.
-
Trump is assassinated during his first or second term. ( 7% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by equivrel on 2017-01-29; known on 2024-02-01.
-
Politics – President Trump rescinds at least one of Obama's executive orders relating to non-discrimination against LGBT people before end of February 2017. ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-01-29; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-03-01.
-
Donald Trump is still President of the United States at the end of 2017 UTC ( 85% confidence; 30 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-29; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
-
TPP will not be ratified this year. ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-01-31; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-31.
-
No criminal investigation of Hillary Clinton in 2017. ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by ioannes on 2018-01-01.
-
President Trump will rescind Chelsea Manning's commutation before it takes effect on May 17, 2017 ( 12% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by atomicspacemann on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-05-18; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-05-17.
-
President Trump impeached for conspiring with enemies (russia or otherwise) ( 4% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-23; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
North Korea will launch (or attempt to launch) a ballistic missile before the end of 2017 ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-01-22; known on 2018-01-15; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-02-12.
-
Politics – President Trump signs an executive order ordering research into, preparatory work for, or work on border fencing or walls before the end of 2017-01-27 ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-01-21; known on 2017-01-28; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-01-25.
-
No terrorist attack in the in any First World country (European Union, UK, US, Japan, Australia) will kill >1000 people in 2017 ( 90% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-20; known on 2018-01-16; judged right by ioannes on 2018-01-17.
-
No terrorist attack in the in any First World country (European Union, UK, US, Japan, Australia) will kill >500 people in 2017 ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-20; known on 2018-01-16; judged right by ioannes on 2018-01-17.
-
Trump tweeting frequency drops to < 1/week in the month after his inauguration (month of January 21st to February 21st) ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-19; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-01-31.
-
Milo Yiannopoulos provides light hearted commentary as comedic relief during White House Correspondents' Dinner ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-19; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-04-30.
-
0 US combat deaths, either US or enemy, after Donald Trump gets elected. US at peace with the world ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-28.
-
Something gets leaked that makes Donald Trump look dumb. ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2021-01-01.
-
The 2020 presidential election will be Donald Trump v. Oprah Winfrey. ( 3% confidence; 25 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2017-01-16; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
-
Trump tweets at least one tweet about how great the performances at his inauguration ceremony will be / are / were. ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-15; known on 2017-02-10; judged right by ioannes on 2017-01-20.
-
Lives saved from legalized stem cell treatment > Lives lost from military conflicts & flying killer robots / drones 2008-2016 ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-06; known on 2017-01-02; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-01-31.
-
First prediction created June 1st 2017 UTC has an ID (see URL) >= 182180 ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by penten on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by penten on 2017-06-01.
-
No major terrorist attack (> 100 victims) in the U.S. by the end of 2017 ( 80% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by blobfish on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-12-31.
-
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_%22compromised%22_claims (PissGate Wikpedia Article) will be around on January 1st, 2018 ( 59% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Issa Rice on 2018-01-01.
-
No human beats the best Go AI in an unhandicapped competitive game by 2020 ( 90% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by mortehu on 2017-01-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
-
Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state ( 0% confidence; 35 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-10; known on 2025-01-01.
-
Donald Trump’s approval rating at the end of 2017 is lower than fifty percent ( 83% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
-
Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2017 ( 93% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
-
Fewer refugees admitted to Europe in 2017 than 2016 ( 72% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-02-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2018-02-01.
-
Theresa May remains PM of Britain through 2017 ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-02.
-
Angela Merkel is re-elected Chancellor of Germany ( 79% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2017-11-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2017-09-25.
-
Marine Le Pen is not elected President of France, conditional on her running ( 63% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2017-05-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-05-07.
-
Germany does not declare plan to leave EU in 2017 ( 90% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
-
France does not declare plan to leave EU in 2017 ( 83% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
-
Keith Ellison chosen as new DNC chair ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-03-01.
-
No announcement of genetically engineered human baby or credible plan for such during 2017 ( 75% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
-
Assad will remain President of Syria throughout 2017 ( 78% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
-
Self driving vehicle (level 4) drives legally on public UK roads before end 2019 ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by penten on 2016-09-29; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
-
By 2030 there will be fewer than 1,600,000 people employed as Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers (occupation code 53-3032) in the US as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. ( 78% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2017-01-06; known on 2030-01-16.
-
Bitcoin will end 2017 higher than $1000 ( 71% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
-
Given an Obamacare repeal, a full replacement will be passed before the end of 2017 ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
-
No terrorist attack in the in any First World country (Western Europe, US, Japan, Australia) will kill > 100 people in 2017 ( 60% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
-
Donal Trump will be inaugurated President ( 97% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by asyks on 2016-12-27; known on 2017-01-20; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-20.
-
Berlin truck driver is muslim ( 75% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by bendini on 2016-12-19; known on 2016-12-26; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-12-24.
-
Terrorist Attack in US with >12 deaths or new US version of Falklands War (ie not war with Russia, China, EU but 'smaller country') ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-19; known on 2017-01-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-31.
-
Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034 ( 0% confidence; 27 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-10; known on 2034-01-01.
-
It will be generally agreed that a meeting occurred between Trump and the Secret Service during 2016 August regarding his comments on the second amendment. ( 90% confidence; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-08-11; known on 2038-08-11.
-
What is today known as the 2016 Oct Surkov leaks will be generally agreed to have been the result of a US Govt operation. Similar to how the NYTimes says (but both governments deny) that Stuxnet was a joint US/Israel operation ( 95% confidence; 6 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-12-01; known on 2066-12-02.
-
The number of content pages on the English Wikipedia, as reported at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Statistics, will exceed 5.3 million on or before January 1, 2017. ( 84% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-30; known on 2017-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2016-12-06.
-
Ivanka Trump will be President-elect before 2021 ( 4% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-28; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
-
Civil war in any country of G7+EU: at least 2 such events in 2 states/NUTS-1 regions each having organized event of >= 10000 armed persons who are not legal government and who kill >= 100 armed persons in each event. ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-11-27; known on 2017-04-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-04-01.
-
Civil war in USA: at least 2 such events in 2 US states each having organized event of >= 10000 armed persons who are not legal government and who kill >= 100 armed persons in each event. ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-11-27; known on 2017-04-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-04-01.
-
As of April 1, 2017, there will be at least 45 YouTube videos with over a billion views as measured by YouTube. ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-26; known on 2017-04-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-01-04.
-
2017 will be the hottest year on record. ( 52% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Osuniev on 2016-11-21; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by Osuniev on 2018-02-02.
-
Jean Luc Mélenchon becomes French president ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Osuniev on 2016-11-21; known on 2017-05-07; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-05-07.
-
Trump survives his presidency ( 92% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Osuniev on 2016-11-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
-
Refurbished iPad mini 4 will be returned before 2016-11-29 ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-20; known on 2016-11-29; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-24.
-
(@AudaciousEpigon or @Inductivist) gets suspended by twitter in 2017 along with at least one more HBD-associated with account. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-18; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-02-11.
-
Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency. ( 87% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-20; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
-
Neither Trump nor any of his officials (Cabinet, etc) will endorse the KKK, Stormfront, or explicit neo-Nazis publicly, refuse to back down, etc, and keep their job. ( 87% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-20.
-
Total minority population of US citizens will increase throughout Trump presidency. ( 93% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-20.
-
Hilary Clinton goes to jail ( 10% confidence; 21 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by cjbeyer on 2016-11-16; known on 2018-06-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-06-16.
-
Whistleblower reveals, in a way that is undeniable and accepted by majority of these citizens, that federal elections in all of US/CAN/EU (parliament, not necessarily member states)/UK/switzerland is rigged ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2019-01-01.
-
A fictional character will be elected US president in 2020 ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-14; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
-
A non-human animal will be elected US president in 2020 ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-14; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
-
California will secede from the United States before 2021 ( 0% confidence; 34 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-13; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
-
Barack Obama recognizes Palestine ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-11-12; known on 2017-02-12; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-20.
-
The electors in the Electoral College will give both Trump and Pence >= 270 votes ( 93% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-11; known on 2016-12-20; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-19.
-
LePen elected president of france, 2017 ( 43% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by regex on 2017-05-07.
-
Donald Trump will be sworn in as President before February 2017 ( 89% confidence; 16 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-10; known on 2017-02-01; judged right by mortehu on 2017-01-20.
-
There will be one or more assassination attempts (successful or not) against Donald Trump during his first term as POTUS. ( 47% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2016-11-10; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
-
0-15 faithless electors ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-12-29.
-
President Trump jailed ( 1% confidence; 23 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2017-11-09; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-11-09.
-
America allies with North Korea, declares war on South Korea ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.
-
homosexuality criminalized in the US ( 2% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
-
US presidents term limits abolished ( 2% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
-
President Trump Dead/Impeached ( 7% confidence; 21 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2017-11-08; judged wrong by Tenobrus on 2017-11-09.
-
For the remainder of the 2016 Presidential Campaign, Trump will not have an approval rating higher than his bounce after the RNC ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-08-31; known on 2016-11-24; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
-
At least one “faithless elector” in the 2016 U.S. Electoral College. ( 66% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2016-11-07; known on 2017-01-12; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-19.
-
Whoever wins the State of Pennsylvania will win the 2016 US Presidential Election ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-11-06; known on 2016-12-06; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
-
Hillary Clinton will run for president and be nominated by the Democrats and win the election in 2016. ( 38% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
-
North Korea will launch (or attempt to launch) a ballistic missile in the last two months of 2016 ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-11-02; known on 2017-02-02; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
-
I will match with anyone on Tinder who I can confirm is not a robot or scam or spam, before 2017 ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-30; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-06.
-
Open Phil's evaluation of MIRI in 2018 will be more optimistic than it was in 2016 at the time of its grant writeup. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-10-29; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2017-11-09.
-
Kim Dotcom will release (either directly or through WikiLeaks or another party) at least 3,000 new and legitimate Hillary Clinton emails, before election day ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-26; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-08.
-
Hillary Clinton will get at least 332 Electoral College votes in the 2016 Presidential Election. ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by quanticle on 2016-10-22; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by quanticle on 2016-11-09.
-
Hillary Clinton will win at least 320 electoral votes in the 2016 Presidential Election ( 67% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-10-22; known on 2016-12-22; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
-
Hillary Clinton to be convicted for an offense directly related to her email controversy. ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Dapple on 2016-10-14; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Dapple on 2018-01-02.
-
Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 U.S. presidential election. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by fangnominous on 2016-10-13; known on 2016-11-09.
-
The next elected President of the United States will be either a Republican or a Democrat. ( 97% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2016-11-11; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
-
Conditional on Joe Scarborough's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of having Narcissistic Personality Disorder ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-10-10; known on 2066-10-10.
-
Melania or Donald Trump to file for divorce or separation, or to be publicly separated by January 15th , 2017 ( 9% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-10-09; known on 2017-01-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-15.
-
Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK —Charlie Stross ( 2% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-10-07; known on 2026-10-07.
-
Within twenty (20) years there will be an option of listing related or similar predictions on the prediction page (of PredictionBook) by the predictor ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-10-07; known on 2036-10-07; judged right by kuudes on 2017-05-25.
-
Within twenty (20) years there will be an option of grouping predictions on PredictionBook, and finding the average right to wrong ratio of them ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-10-07; known on 2036-10-07.
-
No nuclear weapon detonated before 2017-06-01 killing >= 1 civilian before 2017-06-01 that we know about ( 87% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-06-01.