Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 43% | 58% | 70% | 82% | 89% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 14 | 45 | 37 | 45 | 85 | 14 | 240 |
Displaying all predictions made by davatk. Filter by:
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“A nuclear explosive weapon will be used in war or terrorism.” ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2030-01-01.
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“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant — a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid — anywhere in the world.” ( 38% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-12-31.
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“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.” ( 35% confidence; 23 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2035-01-01.
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“Self-replicating manufacturing machines will be commonplace by 2020.” ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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“By the end of the year 2020, a professional sports team that is part of either the National Football League, the National Basketball Association, Major League Baseball, the National Hockey League, or Major League Soccer will integrate and have a woman as ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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United States will invade Australia and take over ( 10% confidence; 21 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by tjross on 2010-03-23; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020. ( 83% confidence; 21 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jack on 2009-10-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.