Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 0% | 67% | 0% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
Displaying all predictions made by Alexander Kruel. Filter by:
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No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests) ( 82% confidence; 32 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ( 13% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-02; known on 2035-01-01.
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Syrian president Bashar al-Assad will lose control over his country in 2011. ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Alexander Kruel on 2011-08-17; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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I will have watched every video on Khan Academy by August 2013. ( 39% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Alexander Kruel on 2011-08-17; known on 2013-08-17; judged wrong by dk on 2013-11-04.
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By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms. ( 30% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Alexander Kruel on 2011-08-17; known on 2030-01-01.
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Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030 ( 26% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Alexander Kruel on 2011-08-17; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by Porejide on 2011-08-25.
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Obama is going to be re-elected as president in 2012. ( 79% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Alexander Kruel on 2011-08-17; known on 2012-11-06; judged right by Jach on 2012-11-07.