Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Jon & Kate Plus 8 – The show will go on, in some capacity ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-23; known on 2009-12-23; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Jon & Kate Plus 8 – Jon & Kate will get back together within a year ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-23; known on 2010-06-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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George Lucas is my father! ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by al3xal3x on 2010-03-18; known on 2010-04-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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I predict Stanley McChrystal will keep his job until at least July 22. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by vhistory on 2010-06-22; known on 2010-07-22; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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A federal government run health insurance plan will not be approved before midnight ET 31 Dec 2009 ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by Spring on 2016-02-10.
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An announcement will be made before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2009 that 10,000+ additional troops will be sent to Afghanistan ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Mark Sanford will not depart as Governor of South Carolina before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2009 ( 79% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Labour party will not win next UK General Election ( 81% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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One or more persons will be charged with the manslaughter, homicide or other unlawful killing of Michael Jackson before the end of the year. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-16; known on 2010-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Osama Bin Laden will not be captured or neutralized before the end of June, 2010. ( 80% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-16; known on 2010-07-01; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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The Australian Interest rate will increase to 4.5% by the end of 2010. ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by d403 on 2010-02-28; known on 2011-01-05; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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none of our boxes shipped home will go missing ( 85% confidence )
Created by Frank on 2010-04-26; known on 2010-07-01; judged right by Frank on 2010-07-26.
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I will pass my Mods ( 99% confidence )
Created by Larks on 2009-10-18; known on 2010-07-16; judged right by Larks on 2010-07-22.
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Dow jones breaking through 12000 before end july ( 30% confidence )
Created by Conbruce on 2010-07-18; known on 2010-07-31; judged wrong by koenfucius on 2010-07-21.
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Dow jones breaking through 12000 before end july ( 30% confidence )
Created by Conbruce on 2010-07-18; known on 2010-07-31; judged wrong by koenfucius on 2010-07-21.
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Will crack 100,000 visits in June ( 60% confidence )
Created by Frank on 2010-05-29; known on 2010-07-16; judged wrong by Frank on 2010-07-16.
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Lebron to play for the New York Knicks in the 2010-2011 season. ( 65% confidence )
Created by Jack on 2010-07-07; known on 2010-07-09; judged wrong by Jack on 2010-07-16.
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Lebron James will sign a contract with a team that is not the Cleveland Cavaliers for the 2010-11 season. ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jack on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-01; judged right by Jack on 2010-07-16.
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Lebron James will sign a contract with a team that is not the Cleveland Cavaliers for the 2010-11 season. ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jack on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-01; judged right by Jack on 2010-07-16.
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Germany will be governed by a CDU + FDP coalition during april, may, and june of 2010. ( 90% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Drahflow on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-07-01; judged right by JFE on 2010-07-02.
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I will be able to run 20km in under 2 hours by July 1st ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2009-12-26; known on 2010-07-01; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2010-07-02.
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Neither USA nor Israel will execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before 30 Jun 2010 ( 79% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-06-30; judged right by rwallace on 2010-06-30.
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Paul Manoukian will get facebook. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by kassey on 2010-03-22; known on 2010-06-18; judged wrong by Danni on 2010-06-29.
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The Socceroos will make it through the first round of the World Cup. ( 59% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by predicted on 2010-03-21; known on 2010-06-23; judged wrong by Danni on 2010-06-29.
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The world will not end December 25, 2012. ( 98% confidence; 28 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Houshalter on 2010-06-13; known on 2012-12-26; judged right by Qiaochu on 2012-12-26.
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reach 600 facebook fans by June 25th ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Frank on 2010-05-17; known on 2010-06-26; judged wrong by Frank on 2010-06-26.
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That one of my best friends will get married in june this year! ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Olivia on 2010-03-22; known on 2010-06-16; judged wrong by aklyatne on 2010-06-22.
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The world will not end December 25, 2012. ( 98% confidence; 28 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Houshalter on 2010-06-13; known on 2012-12-26; judged right by Qiaochu on 2012-12-26.
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Greece will Defeat Korea ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by World_Cup_predictor on 2010-05-04; known on 2010-06-13; judged wrong by maskath@hotmail.com on 2010-06-19.
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The world will not end December 25, 2012. ( 98% confidence; 28 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Houshalter on 2010-06-13; known on 2012-12-26; judged right by Qiaochu on 2012-12-26.
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The world will not end December 25, 2012. ( 98% confidence; 28 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Houshalter on 2010-06-13; known on 2012-12-26; judged right by Qiaochu on 2012-12-26.
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Lakers will win NBA Finals ( 85% confidence )
Created by maskath@hotmail.com on 2010-06-19; known on 2010-06-19; judged right by maskath@hotmail.com on 2010-06-19.
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I will graduate from college in May of next year. ( 84% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jack on 2009-12-02; known on 2010-06-01; judged right by Jack on 2010-06-16.
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The University of Kentucky Men's basketball team will not win the 2010 NCAA Division 1 Championship. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Jack on 2010-01-26; known on 2010-04-06; judged right by Jack on 2010-06-16.
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The Cavs will not win the NBA championship in the 09/10 season ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by nicolas on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-06-16; judged right by Jack on 2010-06-16.
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England will defeat USA ( 70% confidence )
Created by World_Cup_predictor on 2010-05-04; known on 2010-06-13; judged wrong by Jack on 2010-06-16.
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Radiopaedia will reach 3 million pageviews by 15th June 2010 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Frank on 2010-02-18; known on 2010-06-15; judged wrong by Matt on 2010-06-16.
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Justin Bieber's voice will break in the coming year. ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by DianneD on 2010-05-04; known on 2010-12-04; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-10.
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Mav will ask Miss Bobbi (the actress) out on a date by the end of July ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mavmetropolis on 2010-04-13; known on 2010-06-13; judged right by mavmetropolis on 2010-06-13.
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I get into Stanford ( 2% confidence )
Created by PotatoDumplings on 2010-01-05; known on 2010-06-05; judged wrong by PotatoDumplings on 2010-06-10.
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Sam Stosur will win the French Open! ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by wednesday on 2010-06-03; known on 2010-06-05; judged wrong by wednesday on 2010-06-06.
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Iron Man 2 will be the top 10 movie in 2010 ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by melissasajeh on 2010-03-29; known on 2010-04-30; judged right by maskath@hotmail.com on 2010-06-04.
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Iron Man 2 will be the top 10 movie in 2010 ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by melissasajeh on 2010-03-29; known on 2010-04-30; judged right by maskath@hotmail.com on 2010-06-04.
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the chick from big is not the blond chick from weeds ( 70% confidence )
Created by Frank on 2010-05-30; known on 2010-06-01; judged wrong by Frank on 2010-05-30.
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Will crack 250,000 pageviews in may ( 90% confidence )
Created by Frank on 2010-04-22; known on 2010-06-02; judged right by Frank on 2010-05-29.
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Mohsin Malik better stay video than Jay Sean ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by akavc15 on 2010-04-19; known on 2010-05-20; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Mohsin Malik better stay video than Jay Sean ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by akavc15 on 2010-04-19; known on 2010-05-20; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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The Conservative Party will win a majority in the UK parliament, in the 2010 general election. ( 85% confidence )
Created by simontrigowhite on 2010-02-09; known on 2010-05-16; judged wrong by simontrigowhite on 2010-05-19.
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Gorillaz new album will go platinum ( 100% confidence )
Created by musicpredictor on 2010-05-04; known on 2010-05-04; judged wrong by deaz on 2010-05-17.
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FlashFoward will be renewed for a second season ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by MrHen on 2010-02-23; known on 2010-07-16; judged wrong by MrHen on 2010-09-23.