Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 75% | 0% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
Displaying all predictions made by Futschi. Filter by:
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HP MoR: Harry will invent some form of 'metamagic' (eg. a self-replicating spell or magical construct/artifact) ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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Amazon won't launch it's own smart phone by end of 2013 ( 70% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-07; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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HP MoR: Hermione was not False Memory-charmed at any point between chapter 60 and 83 ( 26% confidence; 12 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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HP MoR: ch 85 (or sooner): Dumbledore will realize where and when did Harry had an opportunity not just to terrify Dementors, but to gain enough confidence in this achievement. ( 41% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by mat33 on 2012-04-01; known on 2012-06-10; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-04-23.
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George Zimmerman will be convicted of murder or manslaughter for the shooting of Trayvon Martin before 2015. ( 43% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-07; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-01.