Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
Displaying all predictions made by niconiconi. Filter by:
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China will attempt an invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2025. ( 20% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2021-04-09; known on 2025-12-31.
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A large quantum computer capable of breaking 163-bit Elliptic Curve Cryptography WILL be built before 2070. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niconiconi on 2021-02-26; known on 2071-01-01.
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A large quantum computer capable of breaking 163-bit Elliptic Curve Cryptography WILL be built before 2050. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by niconiconi on 2021-02-26; known on 2051-01-01.
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A large quantum computer capable of breaking 163-bit Elliptic Curve Cryptography WON'T be built before 2030. ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by niconiconi on 2021-02-26; known on 2031-01-01.
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China NOT to conduct overt military action against Taiwan before 2026 ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by niconiconi on 2020-10-16; known on 2026-01-01.
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There will be a “second wave” of coronavirus (increased # of daily US deaths relative to June) visible by fall 2020. ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-06-29; known on 2020-10-16; judged right by srconstantin on 2020-10-27.
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Reddit is blocked in the PRC as of 2020-10-29 ( 89% confidence; 17 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-10-29; judged right by Cato on 2020-11-02.