Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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I will become a Peter Thiel Fellow. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-01-08; known on 2012-08-06; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-03-05.
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JG will bail on this project ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-01; known on 2012-03-04; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-05.
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Flight TT543 will be within 10 minutes of on time arrival into Melbourne ( 60% confidence )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-02; known on 2012-03-03; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-05.
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I will get a remote researcher position at the Singularity Institute before the end of the month. ( 15% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-06; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-04.
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I will complete The Pragmatic Programmer before March, 2012. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-07; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-04.
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Zea will take an extended break from KS either before he finishes Shizune's route, or he will switch to some other heroine. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by meisnewbie on 2012-02-11; known on 2012-02-18; judged right by meisnewbie on 2012-03-03.
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My Introduction to Java deck will be the most downloaded Anki deck containing the word “Java” on 03-01-2012. ( 66% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-02; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-03-03.
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“At least one serious contender for the Republican nomination in 2012 will be someone newly elected to his or her state's governorship in 2010.” —Nate Silver ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-04; known on 2012-03-02; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-03-03.
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GJP: #1034 Will Japan officially become a member of the Trans-Pacific Partnership before 1 March 2012? ( 30% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2012-03-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-03.
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I will have done more than 5000cals of exercise by the end of Friday ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-27; known on 2012-03-02; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-02.
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'The seemingly N^2 patent lawsuits among all the major smartphone players will be resolved through a grand cross-licensing bargain, cut in a dark, smoky room, whose terms will only be revealed through some congratulatory emails that leak to the press. Non ( 30% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-14; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-01.
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NGE: Sadamoto's Eva manga, Asuka will try to go berserk and will be killed by the MPEs; 3rd Impact subsequently starts ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-01.
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GJP: the Saudi monarchy continue to rule Saudi Arabia as of March 1, 2012 ( 93% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2012-03-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-03-01.
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I will move out of the small suburban city in northern California where I have lived for 14 years, before March 1, 2012 ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-07-21; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-03-01.
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GJP: #1070 Will Israel release Palestinian politician Aziz Duwaik from prison before 1 March 2012? ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-23; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-01.
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IT / Scarlet Tea & Cakes 1/3/2012 ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by doctor_regtools on 2012-03-01; known on 2012-03-01; judged right by Michael Stevens on 2012-03-01.
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PredictionBook's email notification system will be fixed by the end of this year. ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-12; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-02-29.
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PredictionBook's email notification system will be fixed by the end of this year. ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-12; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-02-29.
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“New Zealand to be in recession in December 2011 quarter” -ipredict ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-16; known on 2012-02-22; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-29.
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“NZ Government to announce before 2012 it will waive visitor visa requirement for India passport holders” -ipredict ( 2% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-29.
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I'll make it out of studio by 4:45 ( 50% confidence )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-27; known on 2012-02-28; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-28.
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I will earn 300 dollars worth of bitcoin by the end of the month. ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by kiba on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by kiba on 2012-02-28.
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Google Code Search or an equivalent/better successor product from Google will be publicly accessible on 2012-02-15 UTC ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-15; known on 2012-02-15; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-02-28.
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I will go to New York city on feb 14 and build an awsome construction ( 95% confidence )
Created by b.crouzier on 2012-01-17; known on 2012-02-14; judged right by b.crouzier on 2012-02-28.
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I will have enough student's to run my studio ( 80% confidence )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-27; known on 2012-02-28; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-28.
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“Rescind mandate asking Catholic employers to provide contraceptives” petition to the White House will reach 25k signatures by the deadline. ( 90% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-02; known on 2012-02-27; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-02-28.
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The final name for the SI spinoff currently called “rationality org” will be announced on Less Wrong within a week. ( 15% confidence; 7 comments )
Created by beo_shaffer on 2012-02-18; known on 2012-02-25; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-02-28.
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I will finish reading the EML archives by 2012. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-25; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-27.
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The final name for the SI spinoff currently called “rationality org” will be announced on Less Wrong within a week. ( 15% confidence; 7 comments )
Created by beo_shaffer on 2012-02-18; known on 2012-02-25; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-02-28.
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I'll get a flight quote by 6pm ( 60% confidence )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-27; known on 2012-02-27; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-27.
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I will attend the next Chicago LW meetup. ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-16; known on 2012-03-16; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-26.
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GJP: #1066 Will Yemen's next presidential election commence before 1 April 2012? ( 65% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-23; known on 2012-04-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-25.
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I will enter at least 10 Boy Charlton Biathlons this season – http://goo.gl/BCmJt ( 55% confidence )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-03-30; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-25.
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Dan's RTC abstract will be accepted ( 54% confidence )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-11-07; known on 2012-02-15; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-25.
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Both RTC abstracts will be accepted ( 35% confidence )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-11-07; known on 2012-02-15; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-25.
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My RTC abstract will be accepted ( 66% confidence )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-11-07; known on 2012-02-15; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-25.
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I will complete my paper to a standard acceptable to the conference review panel. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-01; known on 2012-02-08; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-25.
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Zea will take an extended break from KS either before he finishes Shizune's route, or he will switch to some other heroine. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by meisnewbie on 2012-02-11; known on 2012-02-18; judged right by meisnewbie on 2012-03-03.
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Zea will take an extended break from KS either before he finishes Shizune's route, or he will switch to some other heroine. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by meisnewbie on 2012-02-11; known on 2012-02-18; judged right by meisnewbie on 2012-03-03.
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Stopping Bupropion won't reduce my happiness by more than 10%. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-02; known on 2012-02-16; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-24.
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I will have achieved a heart rate of 165 for 15 minutes straight which is my aerobic fitness goal. ( 80% confidence )
Created by waveman on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-02-28; judged right by waveman on 2012-02-23.
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I will have listened to Dorothy's memories tape and mailed her a letter with my comments and thoughts. ( 40% confidence )
Created by waveman on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-02-28; judged right by waveman on 2012-02-23.
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Seth Roberts will link to http://www.gwern.net/Zeo#vitamin-d within the week. ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-14; known on 2012-02-21; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-23.
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Mercenaries 4 will not have started in one month ( 95% confidence )
Created by meisnewbie on 2012-01-23; known on 2012-02-22; judged right by meisnewbie on 2012-02-22.
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Rain at apt. tonight or tomorrow morning. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-20; known on 2012-02-21; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-21.
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Nanoha is involved in with the Drexler group, either as a Dominion believer or in protecting certain members. ( 60% confidence )
Created by meisnewbie on 2012-02-09; known on 2012-02-28; judged right by meisnewbie on 2012-02-21.
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In Nanoha's route, conditional upon the events not happening later in her route, the simulation featuring Nanoha is from Rain's route. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by meisnewbie on 2012-02-20; known on 2012-04-20; judged right by meisnewbie on 2012-02-21.
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Temperature outside between 30 and 40 F inclusive ( 60% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-20; known on 2012-02-20; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-20.
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Temperature outside below 30 ( 30% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-20; known on 2012-02-20; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-20.
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Temperature outside above 40 ( 10% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-20; known on 2012-02-20; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-20.