My stolen iPad will not be found within 4 weeks.
Created by Qiaochu on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-11-25; judged right by Qiaochu on 2012-11-27.
- Qiaochu estimated 90% on 2012-10-29
- gwern estimated 80% on 2012-10-29
- Pablo estimated 95% and said “If it hasn’t been found by now, it probably never will.” on 2012-11-04
- Sarokrae estimated 80% on 2012-11-06
- ShIxtan estimated 90% on 2012-11-24
- Qiaochu judged this prediction right on 2012-11-27.
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