Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 100% | 29% | 78% | 78% | 75% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 34 |
Displaying all predictions made by Neznans. Filter by:
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“Of course in 5 years this [Google Assistant] thing is retired without much fanfare because Google doesn’t know how to create products” – BB ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Neznans on 2018-05-16; known on 2023-05-16; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-05-22.
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Pops: “Someone will die on the concert” (The Rolling Stones Tel-Aviv 2014 concert) ( 6% confidence )
Created by Neznans on 2014-06-04; known on 2014-06-11; judged wrong by Neznans on 2014-06-09.
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At least one rather major online (or print) media outlet would cover the miserable hotness of the June 4th Rolling Stones concert in Israel with an article titled using a bad pun regarding TRS and the weather. ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Neznans on 2014-06-04; known on 2014-06-11; judged right by Neznans on 2014-06-09.
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At least one rather major online (or print) media outlet would cover the miserable hotness of the June 4th Rolling Stones concert in Israel. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Neznans on 2014-06-04; known on 2014-06-11; judged right by Neznans on 2014-06-09.
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By 2030 genome sequencing would be offered as a service in local clinics/hospitals for an insignificant fee or for free in most (50%+) of the countries that today (2014) constitute together the Schengen Area, EU, Balkans, North America and Japan. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Neznans on 2014-05-05; known on 2030-01-01.
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Global poverty will be the most common response to the effective-altruist survey question “Which of the following causes do you think you should devote resources to?” http://lesswrong.com/lw/k60/2014_survey_of_effective_altruists/ ( 63% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Patrick Brinich-Langlois on 2014-05-01; known on 2014-07-02; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.
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LinkedIn will be the most popular social network (by montly unique visitors) at the end of 2034. ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mati on 2014-04-28; known on 2035-01-01.
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Google+ will be the most popular social network (by montly unique visitors) at the end of 2034. ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2014-04-28; known on 2035-01-01.
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Facebook will be the most popular social network (by montly unique visitors) at the end of 2034. ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2014-04-28; known on 2035-01-01.
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Actual “Anki” google trend level in the period a year from now (May2014 – April 2015) would mostly surpass the current forecast for the next year : http://i59.tinypic.com/2uf4qvr.jpg ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Neznans on 2014-04-28; known on 2015-04-01.
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There will be no direct “hot”/shooting military conflict between any of the US, France, Germany, the UK, and Russia in 2014 ( 94% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Benquo on 2014-03-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-01-02.
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Before 2030, more than 35% of US-Americans will have no religious identity (not counting babies). ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-06; known on 2030-01-01.
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Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035. ( 19% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2013-06-27; known on 2035-12-31.
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Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030 ( 84% confidence; 27 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-29; known on 2030-01-01.