Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 29% | 44% | 45% | 36% | 83% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 7 | 16 | 11 | 11 | 24 | 9 | 78 |
Displaying all predictions made by ashrewdmint. Filter by:
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I will pass the computational neuroscience program on Coursera ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-12-27; known on 2014-03-07; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2014-08-22.
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“Bitcoin will trade for under $10 a share by the first half of 2014.” — Mark T. Williams (http://www.businessinsider.com/williams-bitcoin-meltdown-10-2013-12) ( 5% confidence; 21 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2013-12-18; known on 2014-07-01; judged wrong by clemux on 2014-07-01.
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Jon Stewart begins repping full communism. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by tedks on 2013-12-14; known on 2014-12-14; judged wrong by tedks on 2014-12-15.
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Chris Dixon: Amazon.com will be using bitcoins in 5 years (by 1/1/2019) ( 33% confidence; 26 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-12-13; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Test will show I have very low cortisol | I get a salivary cortisol test ( 80% confidence )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-10-22; known on 2013-11-19; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2013-11-26.
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I will gain 2 lbs (weight >= 120 lbs) in one month. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-06-27; known on 2013-07-27; judged wrong by ashrewdmint on 2013-07-30.
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Bitcoin was created by a group of programmers who called themselves “Satoshi Nakomoto” and were not employed by a state or a corporation for the express purpose of making Bitcoin ( 19% confidence; 19 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-05-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Bitcoin was created by a lone programmer who wanted to hide his identity ( 45% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-05-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Bitcoin was created by aliens ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-05-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin. ( 8% confidence; 14 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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Paul Graham: Bitcoin may have been created by a government ( 6% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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BTC hits $1000 in the next 10 years ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-19; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2013-11-28.
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BTC hits $1000 within the year ( 15% confidence; 20 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2013-11-28.
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BTC hits $500 within the year ( 35% confidence; 23 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2013-11-28.
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BTC hits $200 within the year ( 57% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-09.
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UFO ET ORBITS MONDAY ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-03-19; known on 2013-03-25; judged wrong by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-03.
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BTC hits $100 within the year ( 65% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-03-19; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-04-01.
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I will be physically stronger than a bear someday (possibly assisted by a mech or something, but not a remote-controlled one). ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by nick on 2013-03-14; known on 2100-01-01.
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I will wake up naturally and feel refreshed and rested by Saturday, due to the 6500K CFL “sun” that is on a timer in my bedroom. ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-02-18; known on 2013-02-23; judged wrong by ashrewdmint on 2013-02-25.
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The recently resigned pope will announce he is an atheist ( 0% confidence; 29 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-02-11; known on 2013-05-11; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2013-05-11.
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Regardless of the outcome of the Dorner manhunt, drones will be praised for their value in said manhunt by at least one news outlet monitored by the Pew Research Center's Project for Excellence in Journalism within one year of today. ( 70% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by halfwaytogallifrey on 2013-02-11; known on 2014-02-11; judged wrong by halfwaytogallifrey on 2014-02-11.
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Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, “How to create a mind”) ( 25% confidence; 17 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-02-08; known on 2029-01-02.
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Neither US nor Russian governments will make announcements claiming the existence of sentient aliens this year. http://www.eutimes.net/2013/01/russia-orders-obama-tell-world-about-aliens-or-we-will/ ( 98% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-01-27; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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Mencius Moldbug: Bitcoin <10 cents by end of 2013. ( 7% confidence; 26 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-01-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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Due to bright light and dark-red light cycling, tomorrow I will wake up like I did today: naturally and without sleeping in. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-01-19; known on 2013-01-20; judged wrong by ashrewdmint on 2013-01-20.
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Sarah's 23andme results will show that she is 90th percentile Neanderthal or higher ( 60% confidence )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-01-19; known on 2013-03-19; judged wrong by ashrewdmint on 2013-01-30.
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Sarah's 23andme results will show she is 70th percentile Neanderthal or higher ( 70% confidence )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-01-19; known on 2013-03-19; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2013-01-30.
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I will sleep better tonight after bright light exposure during the day ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-01-18; known on 2013-01-19; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2013-01-19.
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Economic and social collapse in the United States will progress to a point that Barack Obama will use emergency powers in order to not cede the office of the President at the end of his second term, perhaps even cancelling elections in 2016. ie Empire ( 3% confidence; 32 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by thephilosiraptor on 2013-01-13; known on 2017-01-20; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-20.
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My 23andme results will reveal I am 70th percentile Neanderthal or higher ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-01-11; known on 2013-03-11; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2013-01-24.
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My 23andme results will reveal I am 90th percentile Neanderthal or higher ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-01-11; known on 2013-03-11; judged wrong by ashrewdmint on 2013-01-24.
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The sun will rise tomorrow ( 100% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by xtat on 2012-12-05; known on 2012-12-06; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2012-12-05.
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44 views will show up in YouTube analytics tomorrow to match Insight API reports. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2012-12-05; known on 2012-12-06; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2012-12-05.
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Apple (AAPL) will buy Vimeo. ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Nieskens on 2011-10-17; known on 2012-12-16; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-16.
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The world will exist on 2012-12-22 (day after the widely hyped end) ( 99% confidence; 43 wagers; 21 comments )
Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-22; judged right by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
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Over the next year or two, Apple will bring Cocoa development to the Windows desktop via an App Store that sells titles to a broad audience — Daniel Eran Dilger http://bit.ly/aXTPXK ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-11-15; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.