Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 43% | 63% | 71% | 83% | 93% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 373 | 575 | 496 | 412 | 690 | 110 | 2656 |
Displaying all predictions made by gwern. Filter by:
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The world will end in 2012 ( 17% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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Why The Lucky Stiff will proffer an explanation for his absence in the next year. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2010-10-15; judged wrong by jes5199 on 2010-10-15.
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There will be a storm/hurricane event killing more than 5000 people before 14 October 2010. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Arenamontanus on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-14.
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There will be a transport (train, air, boat etc) accident killing more than 1000 people before 14 october 2010. ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Arenamontanus on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-14.
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There will be a data loss incident (theft, accidental release, crash etc.) involving more than 100 million personal records before the end of 2012. ( 81% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Arenamontanus on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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There will be a data loss incident (theft, accidental release, crash etc.) involving one billion personal records before 2019. ( 43% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Arenamontanus on 2009-10-14; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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The first exaflop performance supercomputer will be online before July 2019. ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Arenamontanus on 2009-10-14; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2019-07-15.
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By January 1, 2011 one or more of the following will happen (1) Israel will launch a military attack against Iran, (2) The U.S. will launch a military attack against Iran or (3) a significant number of countries will ban the sale of gasoline to Iran. ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JamesMiller on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-02.
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The Dow will close under 8,000 (in Oct. 2009 dollars) before Dec. 31st, 2010. ( 36% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by tommccabe on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-01-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-16.
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A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040. ( 68% confidence; 46 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by rwallace on 2009-10-14; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by freyley on 2009-10-21.
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Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years. ( 85% confidence; 16 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2019-10-14; judged right by rwallace on 2019-10-15.
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General consensus among mathematicians that 2, 3, 5 and 7 are prime numbers will not change in the next year. ( 99% confidence; 26 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged right by jasticE on 2010-10-14.
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The sun will not become a nova during this year. ( 99% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged right by gwern on 2010-10-14.
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Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry. ( 77% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2029-10-14.
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Civil conflict will break out in the US by the end of 2011. ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by max on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.
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The US economy will collapse resulting in massive inflation prior to the end of 2010. ( 30% confidence; 24 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by max on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-01-01.
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Sarah Palin will not be the Republican nominee for president of the United States in 2012 ( 80% confidence; 25 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-09-16; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-03.
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There will be a consensus among physicists that the Large Hadron Collider has provided experimental verification for the existence of the Higgs Boson by the end of October 2011. ( 36% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jack on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-10-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-31.
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An announcement will be made before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2009 that 10,000+ additional troops will be sent to Afghanistan ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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A federal government run health insurance plan will not be approved before midnight ET 31 Dec 2009 ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by Spring on 2016-02-10.
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Config (short for configuration) will appear in the Merriam Webster dictionary as proper word ( 30% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by scott.arbeitman on 2009-06-24; known on 2014-06-24; judged wrong by Glenn on 2014-06-24.
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Jon & Kate Plus 8 – Jon & Kate will get back together within a year ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-23; known on 2010-06-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Jon & Kate Plus 8 – The show will go on, in some capacity ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-23; known on 2009-12-23; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Google will lose their soul. We'll love them less in the coming years. ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Lina on 2009-05-28; known on 2011-05-27; judged wrong by Lina on 2011-05-27.
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Kelly Slater will win his 10th world title in 2010 ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by joloughlin on 2009-06-03; known on 2010-12-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-16.
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Buffy the Vampire Slayer will make it to the Big Screen ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-01; known on 2011-06-01; judged wrong by TwitterPredicts on 2011-06-01.
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The recession will end this year ( 57% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-01; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Apple will surpass Microsoft in revenue in a max. of 5 years. ( 63% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by crlosg2 on 2009-05-31; known on 2014-05-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-05-05.
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The Palm Pre will be an iPhone killer ( 24% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-31; known on 2010-05-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Trike IT will have migrated to being a python shop ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Adam on 2009-02-12; known on 2012-02-12; judged wrong by Matt on 2012-04-05.
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Quiksilver shares will double inside 30 months ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Andy on 2008-10-06; known on 2011-04-06; judged wrong by Andy on 2011-04-06.
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this will be the most popular prediction EVER ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2008-08-02; known on 3008-08-02; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-05-17.
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The year 2038 problem will be more interesting than y2k ( 39% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Adam on 2008-07-18; known on 2038-07-18; judged unknown by anonym on 2009-11-07.