Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 49% | 57% | 65% | 86% | 94% | 89% | |
Sample Size | 241 | 286 | 236 | 287 | 552 | 46 | 1648 |
Displaying all predictions made by pranomostro. Filter by:
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Politics, Middle East – Fatah and Hamas do not meaningfully reconcile in 2018 (e.g. Fatah still doesn't control Gaza by January 1, 2019) ( 91% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Politics, Columbia – FARC peace deal remains in place on January 1, 2019 ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2019-01-04.
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Politics, US – A department of the Federal government is eliminated before the end of 2018 ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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E-books won't displace paper ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by livshitsrussia on 2018-04-26; known on 2035-01-01.
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North Korea explodes a nuclear missile outside of internationally recognized North Korean territory ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
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Trumps approval rating never rises above 50% in 2018 ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
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Trumps approval rating never dips below 30% in 2018 ( 84% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
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Serious impeachment proceedings begin against Trump ( 22% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
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Trump is president at years end ( 91% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
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There is no deadly confrontation between North Korea and US armed Forces in 2018 ( 99% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
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Gene drive found in the wild due to either unknown or rogue scientist in the wild before any gene drive released by a major NGO. ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-04-20; known on 2050-01-01.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Joe Biden ( 32% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-17; known on 2020-09-16; judged right by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
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Bitcoin will be <15k on January 1st 2019. ( 74% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-17; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Cyber attack on UK with Russia clearly identified as culprit in 2018, described as retaliation for Syria bombing. ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-04-16; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.
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World War 3 to begin in 2018. (Formal war involving at least three large, developed nations, with some on separate sides). ( 0% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-04-16; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2019-01-01.
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By April 7th, 2028, there will be a time when 5 million or more Americans will be able to order pizza for delivery by drone to their home. ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2018-04-07; known on 2028-04-07.
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Donald Trump will lose the next election. ( 62% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-04-03; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-11-07.
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US National Debt will cross $22 trillion by December 31, 2018. ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dakyne on 2018-03-26; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-01-01.
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Another Soyuz Fregat stage suffers some form of failure that leads to the loss or incorrect insertion of one or more satellites in the next two years. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-22; known on 2019-03-22; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-03-22.
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“Bitcoin will be the world’s ‘single currency’ in 10 years” ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2018-03-21; known on 2028-03-21; judged unknown by Bruno Parga on 2018-04-09.
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Etherium will be more valuable than Bitcoin. ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by s.zirai@live.de on 2018-03-20; known on 2019-03-20; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-03-21.
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Politics, UK – Before the end of 2018, UK government representative states that the view of the government is that the Russian government is likely not responsible for the attempted murder of Sergei Skripal ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-02.
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PredictIt shows Bernie Sanders having highest chance to be Dem nominee at end of 2018. ( 35% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-02; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2019-01-02.
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North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022 ( 5% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2018-01-19; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2022-01-01.
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BTCUSD will exceed 20000 during 2018 ( 28% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sjy on 2018-01-17; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2018-12-31.
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At least one country will decide its head of state by a reality show with real time votes by 2050 ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by volis on 2018-01-11; known on 2050-01-01.
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Kim Jong Un is leader of North Korea on 12/31/18 ( 90% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-03; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Elizabeth Warren will win the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination ( 8% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-27; known on 2020-10-01; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
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Hillary Clinton will announce candidacy for the 2020 US Presidential Election ( 5% confidence; 19 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-12-19; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2019-04-10.
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C still widely in use in the 2020s ( 93% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-16; known on 2029-12-31.
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Donald Trump will not be impeached or resign in his first term ( 66% confidence; 33 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Bismagician on 2017-05-18; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by CaelumCodicem on 2019-12-19.
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“The Long Now Foundation will no longer exist in 2104.” ( 59% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2104-01-01.
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Uber will go bankrupt, dissolve, or merge with another company by the end of 2018 ( 17% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sdr on 2017-03-20; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death. ( 6% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2017-03-17; known on 2037-03-17; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-09-08.
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Trump will win a second term ( 46% confidence; 74 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2020-11-08; judged wrong by regex on 2020-11-20.
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AGI is developed by 2050 (on Earth) ( 55% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-01-18; known on 2050-01-01.
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The 2020 presidential election will be Donald Trump v. Oprah Winfrey. ( 3% confidence; 25 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2017-01-16; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
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Mark Zuckerberg will run in the 2020 USA presidential elections. ( 9% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-14; known on 2019-08-16; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2019-08-16.
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Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state ( 0% confidence; 35 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-10; known on 2025-01-01.
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Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034 ( 0% confidence; 27 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-10; known on 2034-01-01.
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California will secede from the United States before 2021 ( 0% confidence; 34 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-13; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK —Charlie Stross ( 2% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-10-07; known on 2026-10-07.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 100,000,000,000. ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 9999-12-31.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 10,000,000,000. ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 9999-12-31.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 1,000,000,000. ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 9999-12-31.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 100,000,000. ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 9999-12-31.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 10,000,000. ( 89% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 9999-12-31.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 1,000,000. ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 9999-12-31.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 100,000. ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 9999-12-31.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 20000. ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 9999-12-24.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 10000. ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 9999-12-31.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 9000. ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 9001-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 8000. ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 8001-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 7000. ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 7001-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 6000. ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 6001-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 5000. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 5001-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 4000. ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 4001-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 3000. ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 3001-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2900. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 2901-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2800. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 2801-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2700. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 2701-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2600. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 2601-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2500. ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 2501-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2400. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 2401-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2300. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 2301-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2200. ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 2201-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2100. ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 30 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 2101-01-01.
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When DeepDream for audio is invented, the output will cause seriously ill effects in humans like seizures. This will happen before 2020. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Houshalter on 2016-02-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2021. ( 46% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-09; known on 2022-06-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-12-05.
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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2019 ( 50% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2020-06-01; judged right by deleteyourbrain on 2019-05-02.
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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2018 ( 34% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2019-06-01; judged right by Pablo on 2019-04-22.
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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020 ( 43% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2021-06-01; judged right by gwern on 2021-06-01.
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Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus. ( 99% confidence; 23 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-29; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2023-01-01.
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NGE: 4.0 will be titled “You Can (Not) Stay Here” ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky to have at least 1 child by 2020 ( 22% confidence; 31 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by sdr on 2015-10-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-01-01.
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HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire) ( 56% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-04; known on 2041-01-01.
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At least one financial collapse will happen to the US in the 2020s ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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Social Security in US to still exist by 2050 ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-29; known on 2051-01-01; judged unknown by David on 2015-08-01.
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Assuming that this environment is not a simulation, humanity will not observe strong evidence for the existence of a technological alien (i.e. independently evolved) civilization before the minimum of {end of 2055, implementation of superintelligence}. ( 86% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sh on 2015-07-20; known on 2056-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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Humanity to land on Phobos before landing on Mars ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-20; known on 2090-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040. ( 86% confidence; 24 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-19; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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Airbnb to be acquired by 2025 ( 34% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-17; known on 2026-01-01.
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There will be a De Facto independent Kurdistan incorporating territory in both former Syria and Iraq through 2020. ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-07-12; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-08-05.
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The Greek military or goverment will not sign any document of surrender, pay reparations or lose any territory as a result of military action within the next two decades. ( 86% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-07-12; known on 2035-01-01.
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If Greece is bailed out under condition of austerity, these conditions will cease to be enforced within Greece by 2018, or never be enforced at all. ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-07-12; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Syriza will remain in power through 2020 ( 33% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-07-12; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Google will acquire Yelp by 2018 ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Google will acquire Quora by 2020 ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2021-06-11.
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PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020 ( 83% confidence; 40 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Donald Trump will be the last president of a unified United States of America, or be assassinated, dethroned, or impeached while in office. ( 13% confidence; 26 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-07-09; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
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The Greek military will see major action, separate from peacekeeping initiatives outside of Europe, by 2030. ( 34% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-06-27; known on 2030-01-01.
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Saudi Arabia and Iran will be at war before the end of 2020. ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-06-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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Among all US high-tech (IT, all computer {soft, hard}ware development) jobs, of the total hours worked in 2035, >=75% will be worked from home. ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sh on 2015-06-25; known on 2036-01-01.
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Among the top 10% highest-earning jobs (incl. self-employment) in the US, >=75% of the total hours worked will be worked from home. ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sh on 2015-06-25; known on 2035-06-01.
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Apple will buy Tesla by 2020 ( 17% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ira on 2015-06-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-01-02.
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Google will announce its involvement in creating charter cities and/or ZEDEs sometime within the next five years, and a post on this topic will get 300+ upvotes on /r/anarcho_capitalism. ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Faceh on 2015-05-08; known on 2020-05-08; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2020-05-08.
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Superintelligence will be created within 30 years from 7th May 2015 ( 30% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by AlexLundborg on 2015-05-07; known on 2045-05-08.
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Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ( 41% confidence; 20 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-13; known on 2030-01-01.
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The TV show “The Walking Dead” will have at least 10 completed seasons before 2025. ( 45% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Mati on 2015-03-28; known on 2025-01-01.
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Sam Altman: Stripe, Zenefits, Instacart, Mixpanel, Teespring, Optimizely, Coinbase, Docker, and Weebly to be collectively worth at least $27b by Jan 1, 2020 ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2015-03-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by qznc on 2020-01-03.