Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
Displaying all predictions made by jshiga. Filter by:
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If the Public Option passes, it will cost at least $400/month for the 25-35 bracket to join it by a year after it opens. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by freyley on 2009-10-19; known on 2014-10-19.
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A gun will discharge during a town hall meeting sometime during Obama's first term. ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jshiga on 2009-10-19; known on 2012-01-20.
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There will be a public option in the upcoming health reform ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by freyley on 2009-10-19; known on 2010-07-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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No military draft in the United States before 2020. ( 90% confidence; 33 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by komponisto on 2009-10-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older. ( 26% confidence; 25 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-17; known on 2070-12-31.