Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 64% | 63% | 72% | 81% | 90% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 72 | 204 | 299 | 365 | 194 | 14 | 1148 |
Displaying all predictions made by jbeshir. Filter by:
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COVID, US – The CDC lists four variants under concern as monitored as of the 4th of April 2021. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-15; known on 2021-04-05; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-04-07.
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COVID, US – The CDC lists three or fewer variants under concern as monitored as of the 4th of April 2021. ( 38% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-15; known on 2021-04-05; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-04-07.
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Personal, Productivity – I extend my choiceworthiness model in Guestimate with cash transfers by deadline. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-15; known on 2021-03-22; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-03-17.
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Personal, Productivity – I read (not necessarily make flashcards for) another chapter of my math textbook by deadline. ( 65% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-15; known on 2021-03-22; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-03-15.
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Personal, Productivity – I read and make flashcards for another paper by deadline. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-15; known on 2021-03-22; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-03-20.
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India makes (attempts to make) it illegal for exchanges to facilitate trading bitcoin. ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by galaga on 2021-03-12; known on 2021-04-12; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-04-13.
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“Starship will never land in one piece on the moon or Mars” ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-03-12; known on 2030-01-01.
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andrew yang becomes mayor of new york ( 27% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by htaussig on 2021-03-08; known on 2021-11-03; judged wrong by htaussig on 2021-11-08.
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Politics, UK – Sadiq Khan recives over 60% of the votes in the final round of the London Mayoral election. ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-07; known on 2021-05-07; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-02-18.
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Politics, UK – Sadiq Khan wins in the first round of the London Mayoral election. ( 25% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-07; known on 2021-05-07; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-05-13.
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Politics, UK – Sadiq Khan wins less than 50% of the vote in the final round of the London Mayoral election. ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-07; known on 2021-05-07; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-05-13.
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Politics – US withdraws all troops from Afghanistan by 1st of May 2021. ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-07; known on 2021-05-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-05-02.
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COVID – A single strain that circumvents immunity from earlier infections causes more than 10M infections globally by end of 2021. ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-07; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2023-01-03.
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COVID, US – US implements a Tabarrok vaccine idea to speed up vaccinations by 1st of April ( 23% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-07; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-04-05.
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Proof that P≠NP (confirmed by Scott Aaronson) in 2021. ( 1% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.
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Personal, Productivity – I get all my Anki cards done by deadline. ( 77% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-02-17; known on 2021-02-18; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-02-17.
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COVID, US – At least 57M Americans have received their first dose of vaccine by end of 28th February 2021. ( 25% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-03-04; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-03-05.
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COVID, US – At least 53M Americans have received their first dose of vaccine by end of 28th February 2021. ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-03-04; judged right by kuudes on 2021-02-20.
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Personal, Productivity – I read through a chapter of the Moral Uncertainty book by deadline. ( 90% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-02-11; known on 2021-02-12; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-02-12.
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Personal, Productivity – I do two hours work for G by deadline. ( 90% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-02-05; known on 2021-02-06; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-02-06.
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Personal, Productivity – I order replacement glasses by deadline. ( 90% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-02-03; known on 2021-02-04; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-02-03.
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Finance, US – DTCC found guilty by any kind of court or regulator for misconduct relating to handling of “counterfeit” GameStop (GME) shares by deadline. ( 1% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-02-02; known on 2022-02-02; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-02-15.
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Personal, Productivity – I sort out my wall calendar's labels by deadline. ( 90% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-02-01; known on 2021-02-02; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-02-01.
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Business, US – At close of trading on 2022-01-31, GameStop (GME) is worth less than 100 USD. ( 56% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-31; known on 2022-02-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-02-01.
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COVID, UK – NHS recommends Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before deadline. ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-31; known on 2021-09-30; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-02-15.
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Politics, UK – Margaret Ferrier resigns by April 2021 ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-31; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-04-05.
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COVID, US – B117 to lock down ≥3M in US by 2021-03-11? ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-31; known on 2021-03-11; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-03-15.
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GME will reach $1000 at some point before 1 March 2021. ( 13% confidence; 22 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by galaga on 2021-01-29; known on 2021-03-01; judged wrong by galaga on 2021-03-01.
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Trump convicted by Senate before March 15 ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by krp.1902 on 2021-01-26; known on 2021-03-15; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-03-16.
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COVID, UK – The UK has a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021. ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-24; known on 2021-06-02; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-06-13.
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COVID, UK – At least 17 million people have been vaccinated (at least one dose) by the 15th of February 2021. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-24; known on 2021-02-16; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-03-05.
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By July 2021, China will invade Taiwan. The invasion will take longer than anticipated and as a result China will use biological weapons. The USA and EU will do nothing. ( 4% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Random on 2021-01-11; known on 2021-07-31; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-07-31.
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Politics, US – Kamala Harris is president or acting president at any point before 2025. ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-10; known on 2025-01-01.
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Politics, US – Parler's website is unavailable throughout 2021-01-17 ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-10; known on 2021-01-18; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-01-18.
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COVID, UK – 13 million people have been vaccinated (at least one dose) by the 15th of February, in line with government targets. ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-10; known on 2021-02-16; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-03-05.
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The House votes to impeach Trump a second time before the end of his term. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-01-07; known on 2021-01-21; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-01-21.
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COVID, UK – Scotland has a return to in-person education in schools before the start of February. ( 40% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-03; known on 2021-02-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-02-01.
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Politics, US – Donald Trump attempts to issue a pardon for himself before the end of the 20th of January 2021. ( 35% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-03; known on 2021-01-21; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-01-21.
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COVID, UK – At least ten million doses of vaccine have been administered before the end of January 2021 in the UK. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-03; known on 2021-02-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-02-01.
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COVID, UK – At least five million doses of vaccine have been administered before the end of January 2021 in the UK. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-03; known on 2021-02-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-01-24.
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Kamala Harris to be US President by the end of 2021. ( 6% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-11-08; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-01-02.
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Derek Chauvin will be convicted of murder ( 49% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by enolan on 2020-06-17; known on 2021-04-30; judged right by Deepak on 2021-04-20.
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Tech – Betfair resolves the 2020 US Presidential Election Next President market by the end of the 25th of November 2020. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-11-18; known on 2020-11-26; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-12-01.
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COVID, UK – It is not a violation of any guideline or law for a single adult living alone to travel from Edinburgh to Carnforth on the 18th of December 2020 to stay with family. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-11-15; known on 2020-12-19; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-01-03.
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Politics, US – Donald Trump concedes the 2020 US Presidential Election before the start of the 18th of January 2021. ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-11-15; known on 2021-01-18; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-01-10.
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Politics, US – Donald Trump concedes the 2020 US Presidential Election before the start of the 12th of December 2020 ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-11-15; known on 2020-12-12; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-01-03.
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Politics, US – Donald Trump concedes the 2020 US Presidential Election before the start of the 25th of November 2020. ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-11-15; known on 2020-11-25; judged right by Osuniev on 2020-11-30.
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Politics, US – Trump wins a majority of the electoral college votes before February 2021. ( 2% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-11-10; known on 2021-02-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021. ( 11% confidence; 17 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ren on 2020-11-01; known on 2021-11-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-11-01.
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Politics, UK – Tavistock Judicial Review rules that a court order is necessary for the prescription of puberty blockers to teenagers as a part of GIDS. ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-10-08; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-12-01.
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Personal – I weigh in at below 61kg between the start of the 15th of November 2020 and the start of the 1st of December 2020. ( 73% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-10-31; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-12-01.
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COVID, UK – Deaths attributed to COVID exceed 1000 for some day in November. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-10-31; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-12-01.
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COVID, UK – Deaths attributed to COVID exceed 500 on some day in November. ( 86% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-10-31; known on 2020-12-01; judged right by Osuniev on 2020-11-30.
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Politics, US – By November 2nd, 2020, Twitter temporarily or permanently suspends @realDonaldTrump, or @teamtrump, or @POTUS based on alleged violations of Twitter's Terms of Service ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-09-27; known on 2020-11-02.
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Politics, US – 4.5% or more of absentee ballots are rejected in the November 2020 presidential election. ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-10-31; known on 2021-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-08-20.
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Politics, US – 1% or less of absentee ballots are rejected in the November 2020 presidential election. ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-10-31; known on 2021-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-08-20.
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No further debates take place between Trump and Biden ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-10-20; known on 2020-11-05; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-10-26.
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COVID, UK – It is legal for groups of seven non-shielding people to meet for the purposes of Christmas celebration on Christmas Day. ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-10-11; known on 2020-12-26; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-01-03.
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Politics, US, California – Proposition 22 passes. ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-10-11; known on 2020-11-05; judged right by finback on 2020-11-06.
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Business – Netflix worldwide subscriptions reported in their Q4 2020 quarterly earnings report is greater than than 210 million. ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-10-11; known on 2021-01-15; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-01-24.
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Business – Netflix worldwide subscriptions reported in their Q4 2020 quarterly earnings report is less than 197 million. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-10-11; known on 2021-01-15; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-01-24.
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A Trump-nominated Supreme Court Justice is confirmed to replace Ginsburg before the 2020 November election. ( 79% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Deepak on 2020-10-07; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by Deepak on 2020-10-27.
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A Trump-nominated Supreme Court Justice is confirmed to replace Ginsburg before the 2020 November election. ( 67% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Deepak on 2020-09-19; known on 2020-11-04.
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Trump dies of COVID-19 ( 6% confidence; 34 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by technillogue on 2020-10-02; known on 2021-01-22; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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Personal – I weigh in below 62kg before end of 2020-10-15. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-09-27; known on 2020-10-16; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-10-16.
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Politics, UK – Brexit transition period ends 31st of December 2020 with no deal or extension. ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-09-27; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.
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The Swiss limitation initiative will fail ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Deepak on 2020-09-26; known on 2020-09-28; judged right by Deepak on 2020-09-27.
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Politics, Thailand – Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha resigns before the end of 2020. ( 15% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-09-19; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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COVID, UK – Pubs have restricted opening hours (including but not requiring full closure), at the national level, before end of September 2020. Counts even if subsequently lifted. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-09-19; known on 2020-10-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-10-04.
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Harris will becoming the new Democratic candidate for the office of President (due to Biden's withdrawal or some other circumstance). ( 7% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2020-09-16; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-04.
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Politics, US – Over 38% of ballots cast in the 2020 presidential election will be mail-in or absentee, including mail-in or absentee ballots dropped off in person. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-09-13; known on 2020-11-06; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-01-03.
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Politics, US – Over 28% of ballots cast in the 2020 presidential election will be mail-in or absentee, including mail-in or absentee ballots dropped off in person. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-09-13; known on 2020-11-06; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-01-03.
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Tech – OnePlus 8T launches by end of October 2020, and has a 120Hz screen. ( 85% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-09-06; known on 2020-11-01; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2020-10-29.
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Politics, UK – Extinction Rebellion as an organisation is classified as an organised crime or terrorism group on any government list, proscribed, or otherwise legally restricted in a manner not extending to other organisations by end of Oct. ( 13% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-09-06; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-11-01.
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Politics, UK – Extinction Rebellion as an organisation is classified as an organised crime or terrorism group on any government list, proscribed, or otherwise legally restricted in a manner not extending to other organisations by end of Sep. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-09-06; known on 2020-10-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-10-04.
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COVID, UK – On any day in September 2020, there are 2000 recorded new cases of COVID-19 in the UK. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-09-04; known on 2020-10-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-09-27.
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Joe Biden won't be on the ballot in November. ( 5% confidence; 20 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2020-09-03; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-11-19.
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UK schools will close again due a significant rise in COVID cases by 15th Oct 2020 ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-09-01; known on 2020-10-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-10-16.
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Tech – A fix or workaround for MSFS SimConnect performance issues is available by end of August 2020. ( 28% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-08-23; known on 2020-09-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-09-01.
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COVID, UK – Pubs are closed again, in Edinburgh, before end of September 2020. Counts even if subsequently reopened. ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-08-23; known on 2020-10-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-10-04.
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COVID, UK – Pubs are closed again, at the national level, before end of September 2020. Counts even if subsequently reopened. ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-08-23; known on 2020-10-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-10-04.
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Tech – A version update, such that the titlebar version ceases to be 1.7.12.0, is released for MSFS before end of the 30th of August. ( 33% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-08-23; known on 2020-08-31; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-09-01.
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Politics, Belarus – Lukashenko is not president anymore by end of November 2020 ( 9% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NickN on 2020-08-17; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-12-01.
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Politics, Belarus – Lukashenko is not president anymore by end of October 2020 ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NickN on 2020-08-17; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-11-01.
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Politics, Belarus – Lukashenko is not president anymore by end of September 2020 ( 28% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NickN on 2020-08-17; known on 2020-10-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-10-04.
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Personal – I successfully fully download, including content, sufficient to launch, MSFS 2020 by end of 2020-08-18. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-08-16; known on 2020-08-19; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-08-21.
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Politics, Belarus – Election recount or rerun with international observers occurs or is announced by the government by end of September 2020. ( 6% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-08-16; known on 2020-10-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-10-04.
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Politics, US – Conditional on no Democratic candidate receiving a majority of delegates by 2020 June 7, Bernie Sanders is the Democratic nominee. ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-28; known on 2020-10-01.
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Tech – Fortnite is returned to the Google Play Store by end of August 2020. ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-08-16; known on 2020-09-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-09-01.
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Tech – Fortnite is returned to the Google Play Store by end of August 2020. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-08-14; known on 2020-09-01.
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Politics, UK – Ofqual switches to using teacher predicted grades rather than their current school + relative ranking model to assign exam scores by deadline. ( 60% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-08-16; known on 2020-09-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-08-23.
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Politics, UK – New agency specifically for handling pandemics announced by the UK government by end of August. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-08-16; known on 2020-09-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-08-23.
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Politics, UK – New agency specifically for handling pandemics announced by the UK government by end of 2020-08-23. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-08-16; known on 2020-08-24; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-08-23.
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Politics, US – Before 3 November 2020, federal legislation to provide at least $100 billion in direct financial assistance to state and/or local governments becomes law. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-07-26; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-12-01.
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Politics, Hong Kong – Pro-democracy candidates win a Legislative Council majority in Hong Kong's next legislative election, and such occurs within 2020. ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-07-26; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-01-03.
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COVID, US – A Carnival Cruise Lines cruise departs from the continental U.S on or before the 15th of January, 2021. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-07-26; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-01-24.
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COVID, UK – Daily deaths exceed 300 for any day in August 2020. ( 15% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-07-25; known on 2020-09-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-09-01.
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COVID, US – Daily deaths exceed 2000 for any day in August 2020. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-07-25; known on 2020-09-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-09-01.
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Tech – Garmin confirms that its outage during July 2020 was the result of ransomware or malware more broadly by the end of August 2020. ( 70% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-07-25; known on 2020-09-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-08-16.
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Tech – OnePlus Nord's UK release price is £400 or less. ( 75% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-07-05; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-07-25.