Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 80% | 75% | 100% | 88% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 2 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 26 |
Displaying all predictions made by Michael Stevens. Filter by:
-
HP MoR: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains an ordinary rock ( 40% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-16.
-
HP MoR: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains James Potter ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
-
HP MoR: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains a real Resurrection Stone ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
-
HP MoR: Voldemort never intended Harry's own death on the night of his parents' death. ( 50% confidence; 21 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2011-09-04; known on 2015-11-02; judged right by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
-
HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Sirius Black ( 12% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2011-09-04; known on 2015-11-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
-
Greece will exit the euro within the next 2 months ( 21% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Michael Stevens on 2012-06-11; known on 2012-08-11; judged wrong by Michael Stevens on 2012-08-11.
-
Greece will have another election by end of June, 2012 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-10; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-06-18.
-
HP MoR: The constant glitch in the Marauder's Map is Quirrel appearing as 'the Defense Professor' ( 45% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
-
HP MoR: Harry is a Horcrux and Voldemort knows this ( 72% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
-
A stronger stimulant than caffeine will be widely legally available in the UK by 2022, and be used and sold in a similar way ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Michael Stevens on 2012-04-06; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-01-03.
-
IT / Scarlet Tea & Cakes 1/3/2012 ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by doctor_regtools on 2012-03-01; known on 2012-03-01; judged right by Michael Stevens on 2012-03-01.
-
Greece will leave the Euro currency and return to the “Drachme” latest by mid 2012. ( 20% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by herb on 2011-11-29; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by Michael Stevens on 2012-07-01.
-
By the end of 2012, there will be a general consensus that the gold bubble has burst. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Michael Stevens on 2013-01-01.
-
Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored. ( 18% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-25; known on 2039-08-25.
-
gwern will make a prediction on PredictionBook any time during 2012 (UTC) ( 96% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-03.
-
“I expect Apple to move to a modular architecture where the building blocks for high performance computers are generally Mac Minis.” —Robert X Cringely ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2012-06-01; judged wrong by Michael Stevens on 2012-06-01.
-
Nokia's share price will fall by 50% in the next two years ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Michael Stevens on 2011-08-22; known on 2013-08-22; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-06-05.
-
A Latin poem roughly the same as posted will appear in HP:MoR inside Bacon's diary either as a quote or written by Bacon. ( 67% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-01.
-
Second edition of 3DS out by Christmas 2012 ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Jach on 2011-08-18; known on 2012-12-16; judged right by Jach on 2012-08-27.
-
“United States to conduct overt military action against North Korea before midnight ET on 30 Jun 2012” —Intrade ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-06-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-06-30.
-
A 1MW cold-fusion reactor will NOT be demonstrated in October this year. ( 93% confidence; 18 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by scav on 2011-07-28; known on 2011-10-31; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-11-03.
-
Greek will default / there will be a credit event relating to greek govt bonds ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Michael Stevens on 2011-06-29; known on 2011-12-29; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
-
At least one current member will drop out of the Euro. ( 22% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Matt Newport on 2010-06-11; known on 2011-12-17; judged wrong by faws on 2011-12-17.
-
Michael Jackson is still alive and hiding at Neverland. ( 12% confidence; 18 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by sharidanbowman on 2010-02-10; known on 2012-06-24; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-06-24.