Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 25% | 62% | 56% | 100% | 80% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 12 | 21 | 18 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 67 |
Displaying all predictions made by srconstantin. Filter by:
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I will stay in “BugLife” mode until Wednesday but not longer ( 55% confidence )
Created by srconstantin on 2023-03-13; known on 2023-03-15.
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I will not feel interested in writing about philosophy/cogsci until mid-April ( 65% confidence )
Created by srconstantin on 2023-03-13; known on 2023-04-15.
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I will have my next bad mood next week ( 60% confidence )
Created by srconstantin on 2023-03-13; known on 2023-03-24.
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Dad's cancer will not recur ( 40% confidence )
Created by srconstantin on 2023-03-13; known on 2023-09-13.
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AOC will not testify in a criminal trial against anyone involved in the Capitol riot. ( 60% confidence )
Created by srconstantin on 2021-02-08; known on 2021-06-01; judged right by srconstantin on 2023-03-13.
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Palantir stock price will reach $50 at some point before April 1. ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by srconstantin on 2021-02-08; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-01-04.
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I will leave the office at 6 PM today ( 70% confidence )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-12-18; known on 2020-12-19; judged right by srconstantin on 2020-12-21.
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I will be able to plan out a schedule for the week and stick to it ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-30; known on 2020-12-04; judged wrong by srconstantin on 2020-12-04.
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When I check, there will turn out to have been historical examples of hacks/attacks on pharmaceutical companies ( 55% confidence )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-16; known on 2020-11-18; judged right by srconstantin on 2020-11-17.
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Apple made <25% profits in 2019 ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-16; known on 2020-11-16; judged right by srconstantin on 2020-11-16.
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There will be shortages of COVID-19 vaccine in the US ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-16; known on 2021-07-01; judged wrong by Mendez on 2021-07-01.
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I will go one week without eating candy ( 40% confidence )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-16; known on 2020-11-22; judged right by srconstantin on 2020-11-25.
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European pharma companies do not have significantly lower profits than American pharma companies. (In 2019 or earlier) ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-10; known on 2020-11-10; judged wrong by srconstantin on 2020-11-10.
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The US Military's $375M spending on robotics is less than the private sector's investment in self-driving cars ( 70% confidence )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-10; known on 2020-11-10; judged right by srconstantin on 2020-11-10.
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Between 100M and 200M Americans voted in the current Presidential election ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-05; known on 2020-11-05; judged right by srconstantin on 2020-11-05.
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Between 10M and 60M Americans switched to work from home during the pandemic ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-05; known on 2020-11-05; judged wrong by srconstantin on 2020-11-05.
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IHeartRadio is ad-supported or has a paid premium version ( 60% confidence )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-05; known on 2020-11-05; judged right by srconstantin on 2020-11-05.
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Apple is the largest company traded on a major stock exchange ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-05; known on 2020-11-05; judged wrong by srconstantin on 2020-11-05.
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The market cap of Apple is between $100B and $5T ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-05; known on 2020-11-05; judged right by srconstantin on 2020-11-05.
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The market cap of Uber is between $50B and $500B ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-05; known on 2020-11-05; judged right by srconstantin on 2020-11-05.
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Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election ( 95% confidence; 26 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-11-04; known on 2020-12-01; judged right by Deepak on 2020-12-15.
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Trump is said to have made a “full recovery” from Covid and has again made light of the disease at least once. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pdf on 2020-10-05; known on 2020-11-04.
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I will not get my prescription today ( 60% confidence )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-02; known on 2020-11-02; judged wrong by srconstantin on 2020-11-02.
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Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021. ( 11% confidence; 17 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ren on 2020-11-01; known on 2021-11-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-11-01.
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It will rain tomorrow in NYC ( 65% confidence )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-10-30; known on 2020-10-31; judged wrong by srconstantin on 2020-11-02.
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The US military contains between 1M and 5M people. ( 80% confidence )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-10-30; known on 2020-10-30; judged right by srconstantin on 2020-10-30.
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DRACO (the all-purpose virus vaccine) will turn out after checking the literature to have any mammalian studies published ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-10-28; known on 2020-11-01; judged right by srconstantin on 2020-10-28.
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DRACO (the all-purpose virus vaccine) will turn out upon reading the literature to have good in-vitro evidence for effectiveness in at least 5 different viruses ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-10-28; known on 2020-11-01; judged right by srconstantin on 2020-10-28.
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The most common origin for French Foreign Legion soldiers is Africa. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-10-28; known on 2020-10-28; judged wrong by srconstantin on 2020-10-28.
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The annual revenues of the auto industry worldwide are $100B-$999B ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-10-28; known on 2020-10-28; judged wrong by srconstantin on 2020-10-28.
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There is at least one Chinese-owned-and-designed auto manufacturer worth at least $1B ( 80% confidence )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-10-28; known on 2020-10-28; judged right by srconstantin on 2020-10-28.
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The market cap of the steel industry is $10-90B ( 50% confidence )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-10-27; known on 2020-10-27; judged wrong by srconstantin on 2020-10-27.
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The first randomized clinical trials of Vitamin D supplementation for COVID-19 will show a significant effect on the primary endpoint. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-10-27; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by srconstantin on 2020-11-17.
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Nawa will publish data justifying their press release's claims of record-high battery energy density in 2021. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-10-27; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by srconstantin on 2023-03-13.
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1-bed rent in Manhattan is at least 1% lower than it was in March 2019 ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pdf on 2020-10-05; known on 2021-03-01; judged right by pdf on 2021-03-01.
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Humans on Mars by August 30, 2045 ( 50% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-08-30; known on 2045-08-30.
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The first approved COVID19 vaccine will be Moderna's ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-06-29; known on 2022-06-29; judged wrong by srconstantin on 2020-12-18.
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There will be a “second wave” of coronavirus (increased # of daily US deaths relative to June) visible by fall 2020. ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-06-29; known on 2020-10-16; judged right by srconstantin on 2020-10-27.
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A COVID vaccine will be widely available in the USA by the end of January 2021 where widely available is defined as given to more than 10,000 people not as part of a clinical trial. ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by krazemon on 2020-06-28; known on 2021-02-01; judged right by Deepak on 2021-02-03.
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Politics, US – The New York times publishes an article containing both Scott Alexander's legal surname and a reference to SSC before the end of July 2020. ( 25% confidence; 20 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-26; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by ayegill on 2020-08-01.
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At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site ( 78% confidence; 13 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-06-24; known on 2021-01-02; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.
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Boston will have its warmest July ever in 2020 ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by srconstantin on 2023-03-13.
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Trump wins 2020 election ( 38% confidence; 21 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Deepak on 2020-06-11; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-11-07.