Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 62% | 76% | 80% | 94% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 300 | 260 | 195 | 249 | 347 | 149 | 1500 |
Displaying all predictions made by Jayson Virissimo. Filter by:
-
I will finish practice test #2 within the next 10 hours. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-30; known on 2012-05-30; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-30.
-
I will complete chapter 4 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-30; known on 2012-05-30; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-30.
-
I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 100% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-30; known on 2012-05-30; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-30.
-
I will complete chapter 1 of the All-In-One LPIC-1/CompTIA Linux+ Certification Exam Guide within the next 10 hours. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-30; known on 2012-05-30; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-30.
-
Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021 ( 21% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-29; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
-
My Little Pony: Friendship is Magic season 3 will open with a two-part episode ( 70% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-05-29; known on 2012-11-16; judged right by Grognor on 2012-09-14.
-
I will stop posting on Less Wrong before the end of the year. ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-06; known on 2013-02-02; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2013-01-03.
-
Facebook won't buy Opera (the browser) in 2012 ( 77% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-26; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.
-
If I donate blood today, then I will feel sick afterward. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-25; known on 2012-05-26; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-25.
-
Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032 ( 70% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-25; known on 2032-01-01.
-
I will achieve a passing score on practice test #2. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-22; known on 2012-05-30; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-30.
-
My MCT Oil will arrive on or before my birthday. ( 100% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-22; known on 2012-06-08; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-30.
-
My MCT Oil will arrive on or before 05/30/2012. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-22; known on 2012-05-30; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-30.
-
My Anki flashcard deck will exceed 3,000 cards before July, 2012. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-22; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-30.
-
I will complete The Command Line Crash Course by Zed A. Shaw within a week from now. ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-22; known on 2012-05-29; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-29.
-
I will achieve a passing score on both practice tests. ( 65% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-22; known on 2012-05-24; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-22.
-
I will achieve a passing score on practice test #1. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-22; known on 2012-05-22; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-22.
-
I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-21; known on 2012-05-21; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-21.
-
I will complete chapter 18 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 10 hours. ( 100% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-21; known on 2012-05-21; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-21.
-
I will complete chapter 17 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 10 hours. ( 100% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-20; known on 2012-05-20; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-20.
-
“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson ( 8% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-05-19; known on 2030-01-01.
-
I will complete my Anki physics deck and merge it with my master deck within the next 10 hours. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-16; known on 2012-05-16; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-16.
-
I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 100% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-16; known on 2012-05-16; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-16.
-
I will complete chapter 16 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 10 hours. ( 100% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-16; known on 2012-05-16; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-16.
-
Batman the Dark Knight Rises will do worse than expected (4wk gross < 415m on HSX) ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-14; known on 2012-08-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-09-13.
-
Conditional on working any days, Grognor will work 1<=x<=14 months for Walmart. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-05-14; known on 2013-08-14; judged right by Grognor on 2013-02-27.
-
Eduardo Saverin will un-renounce or try to regain his US citizenship sometime in his life ( 28% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-13; known on 2072-12-31.
-
I will still be alive in 2078. ( 49% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-11; known on 2078-01-01.
-
Gold has peaked for the next 5 years (spot gold < 1900 until 1-1-2017) ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-11; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.
-
I will die by non-suicide means by the end of 2012. ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-05-10; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
-
I will squat 1.5x my own bodyweight or more for 5 sets of 5 reps with equal to or less than 1 minute rests before 2013. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-06.
-
I will deadlift 1.5x my own bodyweight or more for 5 sets of 5 reps with equal to or less than 1 minute rests before 2013. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.
-
I will run 4 miles in 30 minutes or less before 2013. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.
-
Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018. ( 48% confidence; 10 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-08; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by elecnix on 2022-12-10.
-
I will complete chapter 1 of Gödel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid within the next 10 hours. ( 55% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-08; known on 2012-05-08; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-08.
-
At most 1 of the NYT profiled hot startups (Pinterest, Path, Pinwheel, Taskrabbit, Dropbox, Square, Quora, Uber, Airtime) will be acquired before the end of 2013. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-07; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2014-07-07.
-
I will complete chapter 10 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 8 hours. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-06; known on 2012-05-06; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-07.
-
Japan will restart nuclear reactors before end of 2020 ( 68% confidence; 6 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-05; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-07-24.
-
By the end of the summer, I will have memorized over 500 words in Italian. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2012-05-05; known on 2012-09-01; judged wrong by pkfalu92 on 2012-10-10.
-
By the end of the summer, I will have memorized 1000 words in Italian. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2012-05-05; known on 2012-09-01; judged wrong by pkfalu92 on 2012-10-10.
-
Eliezer Yudkowsky retracts or significantly edits one of the posts in the quantum physics sequence in the next two years. ( 5% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2012-05-03; known on 2014-05-03; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-05-04.
-
I will complete Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots within the next 150 days. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-03; known on 2012-09-30; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-15.
-
I will complete Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty within the next 120 days. ( 45% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-03; known on 2012-08-31; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-06.
-
I will complete Metal Gear Solid within the next 90 days. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-03; known on 2012-08-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-02.
-
I will complete Metal Gear Solid: Peace Walker within the next 60 days. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-03; known on 2012-07-02; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03.
-
I will complete Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater within the next 30 days. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-03; known on 2012-06-02; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-19.
-
I will attempt suicide this year ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Leo on 2012-05-02; known on 2013-05-03; judged wrong by Leo on 2013-05-03.
-
I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-02; known on 2012-05-02; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-02.
-
I will complete chapter 9 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 10 hours. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-02; known on 2012-05-02; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-02.
-
Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years. ( 9% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-05-01; known on 2022-05-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2022-05-01.
-
I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 7 hours. ( 95% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-01; known on 2012-05-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-01.
-
I will complete chapter 8 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 7 hours. ( 55% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-01; known on 2012-05-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-01.
-
I will complete chapter 8 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 10 hours. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-30; known on 2012-04-30; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-30.
-
I will finish Learn Python the Hard way by the end of the School Year ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by meisnewbie on 2012-04-30; known on 2012-06-17; judged wrong by meisnewbie on 2012-06-17.
-
I will pass exam 220-702 tomorrow. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-27; known on 2012-04-28; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-28.
-
Planetary Resources won't be mining asteroids by 2020 ( 84% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
-
I will complete chapter 8 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 4 hours. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-25; known on 2012-04-25; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-25.
-
I will listen to the entire lecture series Practicing Mindfulness: An Introduction to Meditation by Mark W. Muesse within the next 3 weeks. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-25; known on 2012-05-16; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-26.
-
Jeb Bush will be Mitt Romney's VP pick ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-24; known on 2012-09-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-11.
-
I will complete chapter 7 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 5 hours. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-23; known on 2012-04-23; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-23.
-
I will run equal to or greater than 5 k before going to work tonight at an average rate of 7 mph or greater. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-23; known on 2012-04-23; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-23.
-
Nosek's project to replicate findings from three major psychology journals will find that >=30% of them are failed replications. ( 73% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by lweismantel on 2012-04-19; known on 2013-04-01; judged right by hedges on 2015-05-01.
-
Given that they complete a least 48 attempted replications, less than 5% of the replications the reproducibility project* is attempting will successfully replicate at the p<.05 level. http://openscienceframework.org/project/shvrbV8uSkHewsfD4/wiki/index ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by beo_shaffer on 2012-04-19; known on 2022-10-10; judged wrong by CarlShulman on 2016-11-09.
-
I will sleep on the plane. ( 5% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-17; known on 2012-04-18; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-17.
-
I will complete chapter 3 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 10 hours. ( 66% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-16; known on 2012-04-16; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-16.
-
I will complete chapter 2 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 6 hours. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-15; known on 2012-04-15; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-15.
-
My “Master Deck” for Anki will exceed 2,000 flash cards before June, 2012. ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-14; known on 2012-06-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-16.
-
The Dictator (movie with Sasha Baren Cohen) will do better than expected (measured by 4 wk US gross > $68m now on HSX) ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-14; known on 2012-06-30; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-06-12.
-
I will finish my physics Anki deck within the next 5 hours. ( 65% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-14; known on 2012-04-14; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-14.
-
Hugo Chavez dies in the year 2012 ( 27% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
-
HP MoR: MoR will win a Hugo for Best Novel 2013-2017 ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-13; known on 2017-09-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-04-29.
-
I will complete chapter 2 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Physics: Second Edition within the next 5 hours. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-12; known on 2012-04-12; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-12.
-
I will attend at least 1 Less Wrong meetup between now and 2013. ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-02.
-
I will complete chapter 3 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Learning Latin within the next 5 hours. ( 55% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-12; known on 2012-04-12; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-12.
-
I will complete chapter 1 of All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide: Fourth Edition within 5 hours. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-12; known on 2012-04-12; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-12.
-
Santorum won't be a top 3 candidate in 2016 republican primary (measured by returns in South Carolina primary) ( 78% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-11; known on 2016-02-15; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-15.
-
I will complete chapter 2 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Learning Latin within the next 10 hours. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-11; known on 2012-04-11; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-11.
-
I will attend at least one LessWrong meetup in person, before 2013 ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-04-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
-
I will complete chapter 26 of All-In-One CompTIA A+ Certification Exam Guide within the next 10 hours. ( 55% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-10; known on 2012-04-10; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-10.
-
HP MoR: Dumbledore did not kill Narcissa, but claimed he did. ( 54% confidence; 11 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-21; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
-
HP MoR: ch 85 (or sooner): Headmaster would allow Harry to exploit vulnerabilities of the magic Britain's economics to get out of debt (to Malfoy for his Hermione's “purchase”). ( 22% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by mat33 on 2012-04-01; known on 2012-06-10; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-04-23.
-
HP MoR: ch 85 (or sooner): Dumbledore will realize where and when did Harry had an opportunity not just to terrify Dementors, but to gain enough confidence in this achievement. ( 41% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by mat33 on 2012-04-01; known on 2012-06-10; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-04-23.
-
HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be invoking Lucius's debt to whomever killed his supposed Imperiuser ( 35% confidence; 21 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged right by Grognor on 2012-03-28.
-
HP MoR: HPMOR will update at least twice in 2012 ( 95% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Isaac on 2012-03-16.
-
I will complete my Anki review for the day. ( 99% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-09; known on 2012-04-09; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-09.
-
By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space. ( 15% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-04-08; known on 2051-01-01.
-
HP MoR: Dumbledore killed Narcissa Malfoy ( 29% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-21; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.
-
http://dkmvs.com/ will be a viral hit in 30 days. Edit: Let's define “hit” as averaging > 1,000 page views a day for 3 days prior to the outcome being known. ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by scott.arbeitman on 2012-03-21; known on 2012-04-21; judged wrong by scott.arbeitman on 2012-05-02.
-
George Zimmerman will be convicted of murder or manslaughter for the shooting of Trayvon Martin before 2015. ( 43% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-07; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-01.
-
I will complete chapter 23 of All-In-One CompTIA A+ Certification Exam Guide within the next 5 hours. ( 55% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-06; known on 2012-04-06; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-06.
-
I will complete the All-In-One CompTIA A+ Certification Exam Guide: Seventh Edition within the next 2 weeks. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-05; known on 2012-04-19; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-11.
-
I will complete all my physics practice problems correctly. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-05; known on 2012-04-06; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-05.
-
I will complete and merge all of my incomplete Anki decks into a single master deck within the next 12 hours. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-05; known on 2012-04-05; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-05.
-
I will complete my Security+ Anki deck within the next 12 hours. ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-05; known on 2012-04-05.
-
During the easter holidays, we will drive to a random forest and listen to owl city's 'fire flies' with all the car lights off…… ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by happyday on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-04-12; judged wrong by happyday on 2012-04-10.
-
reddit.com/r/GEB/ will fizzle out and not finish GEB. ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ZrCa on 2011-12-28; known on 2012-07-19; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.
-
“The Supreme Court will uphold ObamaCare” —jdgalt ( 66% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-05-30; judged right by RobertLumley on 2012-06-28.
-
I will finish The Complete Idiot's Guide to Learning Latin before the end of the year. ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.
-
i won't make any compliants this week and there will be no argument between me and my hubby until the easter holiday finished ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by happyday on 2012-04-02; known on 2012-04-18; judged right by happyday on 2012-04-10.
-
Apple will buy Twitter before end of 2013 ( 11% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-01; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.