Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 51% | 60% | 66% | 81% | 92% | 97% | |
Sample Size | 137 | 234 | 231 | 257 | 634 | 119 | 1612 |
Displaying all predictions made by PseudonymousUser. Filter by:
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I will pass my grade 8 ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-06-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-05-08.
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Tuxedage will face bitter rejection and defeat as he asks his crush to date him. ( 66% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2014-10-24; known on 2014-10-27; judged right by Tuxedage on 2014-10-26.
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Less than 300 people will die of Ebola within the fifty United States by January 1, 2018 —Bryan Caplan ( 88% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2014-10-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by bendini on 2017-11-20.
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I will re-watch 3+ of my favorite movies (rated 90th+ percentile) before 2015-01-05 ( 99% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-10-19; known on 2015-01-05; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-04.
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I am accepted to Y Combinator with my idea for an EEG framework: http://synaptitude.me/, Winter 2015 ( 25% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lettergram on 2014-10-05; known on 2014-11-01; judged wrong by lettergram on 2014-11-01.
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Kim Jong-un is reported dead within 100 calendar days. ( 3% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by asd on 2014-09-28; known on 2015-01-06; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-06.
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The Witness will be released and playable by the public on at least one platform before 2015 ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-09-22; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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My ASUS X99 motherboard will burn out some component or otherwise suffer electrically-induced damaged, in the first 30 days of operation ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-09-21; known on 2014-11-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-10-27.
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Our old hot sauce was not Durkee brand. ( 75% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-09-16; known on 2014-09-16; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-09-16.
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An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100. ( 57% confidence; 18 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by nshepperd on 2014-09-08; known on 2100-01-01.
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Islamic terrorist attack in the UK kills at least one this month. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-08-29; known on 2014-09-29; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-29.
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Eliezer will state that he has finished writing HPMOR by the end of 2014. ( 33% confidence; 19 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Calien on 2014-08-19; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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Assange leaves the embassy within a year. ( 39% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-08-18; known on 2015-08-18; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-08-18.
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Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project. ( 1% confidence; 27 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-08-12; known on 2024-08-12.
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Apple is going to discontinue iPod touch in 3 years ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2017-08-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-08-04.
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Vladimir Putin to be awarded the 2014 Nobel Peace Prize ( 1% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-19; known on 2014-10-10; judged wrong by qznc on 2014-10-10.
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waveman will have a complete futures and FX trading system in place by end 3Q 2014. ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-07-12; known on 2014-10-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-10-01.
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I will get my wanikani review queue down to 0 any time before July 14 2014 11am Pacific ( 100% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-07-12; known on 2014-07-14; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-07-14.
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I will not watch any of The Americans until July 26 2014 ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-07-12; known on 2014-07-26; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-07-26.
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Boss will give me a plan to get me to mgmt by EoCY. ( 30% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-07-03; known on 2014-07-03; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-07-03.
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Alex will tell me that I will be promoted in December, conditional upon fulfilling Kiran's requests. ( 30% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-06-25; known on 2014-06-26; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-06-25.
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My program will work as I expect it to this time. ( 60% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-06-08; known on 2014-06-08; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-06-08.
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My program will work as I expect it to. ( 65% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-06-08; known on 2014-06-08; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-06-08.
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NYRRB: I will keep my New Year's resolutions from now until the fall equinox. ( 50% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-06-01; known on 2014-09-23; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-07-02.
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NYRRB: I will keep my New Year's resolutions from now until the fall equinox. ( 50% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-06-01; known on 2014-09-23; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-06-01.
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Other to rule Westeros at the end of the TV-series ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by BiasedCalibration on 2014-05-24; known on 2019-07-16; judged wrong by ejlflop on 2019-07-16.
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Kingdom of Westeros to be dissolved by the end of the TV-series (No house rules more than 4 regions) ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by BiasedCalibration on 2014-05-24; known on 2019-07-16; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2019-05-21.
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By June 2014, I will decide to stop eating wheat ( 86% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-04-11; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-05-21.
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NYRRB: I will keep my New Year's Resolutions until the summer solstice. ( 60% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-04-01; known on 2014-06-21; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-06-01.
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Half-Life 3 is released in 2014. ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by tedks on 2014-03-19; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-31.
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NYRRB: I will keep all of my resolutions through the end of March. ( 70% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-04-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-04-01.
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MtGox is insolvent. It currently holds less bitcoins or USD than the total sum of money shown to be deposited in it. ( 75% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2014-02-22; known on 2014-07-14; judged right by ygert on 2014-02-28.
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Dogecoin's market cap will surpass Litecoin's during 2014 ( 45% confidence; 16 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2014-02-13; known on 2015-01-03; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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At least half of my showers this December will be cold. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-13; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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I will ask the girl I am seeing on friday to be my girlfriend by the end of the weekend. ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by reubensandwich on 2014-02-13; known on 2014-02-17; judged right by reubensandwich on 2014-02-16.
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I will not have a Valentine on Valentine's Day. ( 85% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-12; known on 2014-02-15; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-15.
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By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ( 54% confidence; 42 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by ZLM on 2014-02-10; known on 2025-01-01; judged unknown by lavalamp on 2014-08-21.
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HP MoR: The phrase “the very stars in heaven” in the prophecy refers to the Black family, as per http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/hvg/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/9ajh . ( 4% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-03; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by ygert on 2015-03-23.
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I will be allowed to go to the IEEE conference by my parents. ( 50% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-04; known on 2014-02-06; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-04.
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NYRRB: I will keep all of my resolutions through the end of February. ( 70% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-01; known on 2014-03-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-03-01.
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Google Helpouts is shut down within the next 5 years. ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-02-01; known on 2019-02-02; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-02-13.
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There are unique 50 wagers on this prediction by April 1st, 2014. ( 69% confidence; 62 wagers; 71 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-04-02; judged right by rickyrich98 on 2014-04-02.
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Google will include Bitcoin in the list of currencies that you can automatically convert through the search bar in 2014. ( 39% confidence; 23 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tenoke on 2014-01-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by adbge on 2014-07-30.
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MIRI will continue operating in end of 2014. ( 92% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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CFAR will continue operating in end of 2014. ( 85% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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2014 Less Wrong Survey will have < 20% female. ( 89% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by mad on 2015-01-06.
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There is a terrorist attack in the USA killing > 100 people. ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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US government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt. ( 98% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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Bitcoin will end the year higher than $1000. ( 67% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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I will not go on this website between January 1st 2040 and January 1st 2050. ( 96% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mati on 2014-01-26; known on 2050-01-01.
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More Google glass will be sold in the first 80 days than iPads 1 were sold in the first 80 days (which is 3 millions). ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-01-26; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Mati on 2015-03-28.
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My next 10 showers will be cold showers. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-23; known on 2014-02-14; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-04.
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Clojure 1.6 will be released before 2015 ( 90% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-23; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-03-25.
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I'll cause at least five people to start using Prediction Book by the end of today. ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by briennestrohl on 2014-01-21; known on 2014-01-22; judged right by briennestrohl on 2014-01-22.
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The Broncos will win the Super Bowl. ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-20; known on 2014-02-03; judged wrong by lettergram on 2014-02-03.
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Gangnam Style (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bZkp7q19f0) will have 2 billion views by the end of 2014. ( 82% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-20; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by dk on 2014-06-08.
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I won't end up going to the Alexis Ohanian event tomorrow ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EvanB on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-01-19; judged right by EvanB on 2014-01-19.
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NYRRB: I will keep all of my resolutions through the end of January. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-16; known on 2014-02-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-01.
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HPMoR will be fully completed by chapter 111. (That is to say, it will have no more than 111 chapters, including all the remaining arcs, and all epilogues.) ( 20% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by ygert on 2014-01-15; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-03-14.
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I will speak (using any nickname) more than 120 lines in #lesswrong before 2014-02-15 ( 0% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-15; known on 2014-02-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-15.
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I will read 12 books before 2015. ( 86% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-10; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-04-29.
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I will complete the Spanish skill tree on Duolingo before 2015. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-10; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-01-08.
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New Year's Resolutions Rebooted: I will keep all 3 of my rebooted resolutions for one whole week, from January 9 through January 15. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-09; known on 2014-01-16; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-16.
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Bitcoin hits $10000 at some point during 2014 (top exchange on http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/currency/USD.html) ( 16% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-03; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2015-01-01.
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Green Bay will beat the San Francisco 49ers tomorrow. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-04; known on 2014-01-06; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2014-01-08.
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I will correctly guess the result of every game in the 2014 NFL Postseason (based on guesses in the comments of this prediction). ( 1% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-04; known on 2014-02-03; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-05.
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[mredactedw] will get a 4.0 next semester. ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-04; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-05-24.
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I will get a 4.0 next semester. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-04; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-05-24.
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Dogecoin will be worth more than 1000 Satoshis ($0.00755000) by June 2014 (At 3 Jan 2014 bitcoin prices) ( 15% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2014-01-03; known on 2014-06-17; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2014-06-17.
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Dogecoin will be worth less than 40 Satoshis ($0.00036240) at June 2014. (At 3 Jan 2014 bitcoin prices) ( 50% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2014-01-03; known on 2014-06-17; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2014-06-17.
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BitCoin is valued at $1,000 within the month ( 50% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-02; known on 2014-02-01; judged right by Tuxedage on 2014-01-06.
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DSM-5 Question. ( 67% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02; known on 2014-01-02; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.
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My father will beat my mother in a game of Stratego. ( 75% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
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A different cryptocurrency beats Bitcoin in market cap at some point during the year. ( 7% confidence; 31 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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Chelsea Manning will be be pardoned by the US government and undergo transgender surgery and become a popular advocate of free information in the US in the 2040s and 2050s ( 14% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by deanmullen2014 on 2013-12-31; known on 2055-01-01.
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The world will be fully directly democratic by 2170! The world will be self-governed by it's people, probably nationless (definitely in culture, society and economics) but not a global state ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by deanmullen2014 on 2013-12-31; known on 2170-01-01.
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A virtual reality headset (Oculus Rift-esque) sells more than a million units within the next 5 years. ( 85% confidence; 23 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by adbge on 2013-12-26; known on 2018-12-26; judged right by bendini on 2017-06-05.
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[mredacteds] will get an A in algorithms this semester. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-11; known on 2014-01-27; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-04.
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Buffalo Bills beat the Miami Dolphins yesterday. ( 80% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-23; known on 2013-12-23; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-23.
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Microsoft will continue extended support of Windows XP past the April 8, 2014 deadline. ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Omid on 2013-12-23; known on 2014-04-09; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-04-10.
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I will write a working basic CLJS todo application before this Sunday 6am Pacific ( 98% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-21; known on 2013-12-23; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-22.
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[redacted] will ask for a regrade on eir algorithms exam, and get at least 1 point back. ( 20% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-15; known on 2014-01-27; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-04.
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cryptsy will stop all withdrawals for at least 24 hours, before 2014 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-20; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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“Bitcoin will trade for under $10 a share by the first half of 2014.” — Mark T. Williams (http://www.businessinsider.com/williams-bitcoin-meltdown-10-2013-12) ( 5% confidence; 21 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2013-12-18; known on 2014-07-01; judged wrong by clemux on 2014-07-01.
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I will be in the process of deleting my Facebook account before the end of 2013, and I will not use Facebook during 2014. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-17; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-10-12.
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On the HBWI? scale, the event will score in the interval [0,2.5], and I will reach Threshold 1 (see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/22504). ( 13% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-17; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-17.
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On the HBWI? scale, the event will score in the interval (2.5,5], and I will reach Threshold 1 (see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/22504). ( 14% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-17; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-17.
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On the HBWI? scale, the event will score in the interval (5,7.5], and I will reach Threshold 1 (see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/22504). ( 20% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-17; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-17.
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On the HBWI? scale, the event will score in the interval (7.5,10], and I will reach Threshold 1 (see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/22504). ( 20% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-17; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-17.
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On the HBWI? scale, the event will score in the interval (7.5,10], and I will not reach Threshold 1 (see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/22504). ( 7% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-17; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-17.
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On the HBWI? scale, the event will score in the interval (5,7.5], and I will not reach Threshold 1 (see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/22504). ( 13% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-17; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-17.
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On the HBWI? scale, the event will score in the interval (2.5,5], and I will not reach Threshold 1 (see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/22504). ( 10% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-17; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-17.
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Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-17; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-17.
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I will not place a bet on just-dice.com from now until 2015. ( 99% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-14; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-09.
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I will get exactly 86 points on the algorithms final. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-14; known on 2013-12-25; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-16.
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Nick Szabo is the real Satoshi Nakamoto ( 19% confidence; 30 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-12-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry's vague fear in chapter 10 (“What happens if you fail?”“Something terrible…”) is not rationalisation but represents advance knowledge of what happens, i.e. there's some causal connection to the future (chapter 90+). ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-05; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Afforess on 2015-08-17.
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“200 million [Ubuntu] users by 2015” -Shuttleworth's goal ( 3% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-04; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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The 2013 Less Wrong Survey will show more than 60% of the participants to be men. ( 94% confidence; 31 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Mathias Zaman on 2013-12-01; known on 2014-01-31; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-01-19.
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I will speak (under any nickname) more than 50 lines total in #lesswrong, between now and 2014 ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.