Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 43% | 58% | 69% | 68% | 92% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 23 | 71 | 70 | 65 | 91 | 2 | 322 |
Displaying all predictions made by qznc. Filter by:
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The Euro will not be dead by 2016 ( 94% confidence; 29 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by challquist on 2013-04-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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One of Italy/Spain/Portugal/Germany will leave the EU before 2023 ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-03-23; known on 2023-01-01.
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Germany to cancel phase-out of nuclear power by 2022. ( 22% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-01-18; known on 2022-02-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2022-03-12.
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Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable “in ten thousand years, or so” ( 19% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by sdr on 2013-01-09; known on 9999-01-01.
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“Ubuntu for phones” will have less than 5% market share by the end of 2014. ( 91% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by dhoe on 2013-01-05; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by dhoe on 2014-12-31.
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HP:MoR: Review-count of MoR to surpass UC within 2 years ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-11-16; known on 2014-11-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-11-16.
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New Star Wars movie will be better than Phantom Menace and Attack of the Clones ( 70% confidence; 20 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-02; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-12-28.
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New Star Wars movie out before end of 2015 ( 71% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-02; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by kuudes on 2015-12-16.
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Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 68% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 32% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Within 2 years, the global usage share of IE (all versions), will be below 20%, as measured by statcounter.com ( 42% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2012-08-25; known on 2014-08-26; judged wrong by Grognor on 2014-08-26.
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HPMoR: Quirrell killed the original Voldemort and took his position. ( 4% confidence; 19 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-07-31; known on 2014-07-31; judged wrong by player_03 on 2015-03-16.
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Scotland will vote in favour of independence in the 2014 referendum ( 28% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by chimpsky on 2012-06-07; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is behind Hermione Draco accident (attempted murder) ( 82% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-18; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by player_03 on 2015-02-22.
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HP MoR: Severus Snape is behind Hermione Draco accident (attempted murder) ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ami on 2012-04-18; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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HP MoR: The use of the device with the golden wibblers is revealed before 2017. ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-19; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2017-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry's conclusion about the blood of Atlantis and the origin of magic is deeply flawed in some respect. ( 42% confidence; 11 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-28; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-03-09.
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HP MoR: Gilderoy Lockhart will be Sir Not Appearing In This Fanfic ( 85% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023 ( 53% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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“Any country currently using the Euro to announce their intention to drop it midnight ET 31 Dec 2014” —Intrade ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-12-31.
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'NASA to announce discovery of extraterrestrial life before midnight ET 31 Dec 2014' —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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http://www.longbets.org/601 will be a broken link in 11 years —Jeremy Keith ( 13% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-19; known on 2022-02-18; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-18.
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Intrade will close/merge/be sold by 2015. ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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Copyright on Steamboat Willy will be extended in some manner past 2023. ( 82% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-30; known on 2023-01-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2023-01-02.
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'Tooth regeneration is transforming dental care' by 2022 ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2023-01-01.
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A general-purpose artificial intelligence comparable to or better than a human will not have been developed by the beginning of 2020. ( 82% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Richard_Kennaway on 2010-08-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by MultiplyByZer0 on 2020-06-12.