Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
-
Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020 ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-03-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
-
Trump dies of COVID-19 ( 6% confidence; 34 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by technillogue on 2020-10-02; known on 2021-01-22; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
-
[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 10 million ( 8% confidence; 36 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
-
[Personal] I will be underconfident across the past 6 personal predictions ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-01-16; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
-
[Personal] My favorite album, movie, and TV show will all be the same at the end of 2020 as they are now. ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-01-16; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
-
[Personal] I'll work out at least twice on every day from now on till the end of 2020. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-01-16; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
-
Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020 ( 28% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sjy on 2020-03-22; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
-
Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020 ( 4% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sjy on 2020-03-22; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
-
S&P 500 index ends 2020 above 3500 ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-01-01; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by batemancapital on 2020-12-31.
-
U.S. 10-year bond yield dips below 0.25 in 2020 ( 65% confidence )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-04-17; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-12-31.
-
Fed cuts Fed Fund rate to negative before end of 2020 ( 40% confidence )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-05-08; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-12-31.
-
S&P 500 index dips below 2000 in year of 2020 ( 32% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-03-27; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-12-31.
-
LBMA gold price reaches $1800/oz in 2020 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-03-08; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by batemancapital on 2020-12-31.
-
Hong Kong Dollar will not break peg in 2019 or 2020 ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by batemancapital on 2019-08-29; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by batemancapital on 2020-12-31.
-
SoftBank stock suffers 50% correction from its all-time-high by end of 2020 ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by batemancapital on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-12-31.
-
US Treasury 10Y yield >= 3% in 2020 ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by batemancapital on 2019-12-23; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-12-31.
-
Federal Reserve does not reduce target Fed Fund rate in 2020 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by batemancapital on 2019-12-23; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-12-31.
-
Dollar index (DXY) 2020 performance is negative ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-01-01; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by batemancapital on 2020-12-31.
-
[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno y durará al menos un año ( 39% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged right by sortega on 2020-12-31.
-
Hungary will go into lockdown ( 20% confidence )
Created by MartaK on 2020-10-30; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by MartaK on 2020-12-31.
-
Another Supreme Court justice will retire before the end of the year. ( 43% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-01; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-12-31.
-
Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31 ( 13% confidence; 27 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by daveisright on 2020-07-02; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2020-12-31.
-
I contribute a major feature to PredictionBook ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.
-
Tesla has at least one truly autonomous (no human safety driver) taxi (where a member of the public chooses the destination and pays) on a regular street (where unrestricted human-driven cars are driven on the same street) by the end of 2020 ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.
-
[The Economist predicts:] United States falls into recession during the next 12 months ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.
-
Brexit fails ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-02; known on 2021-10-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.
-
[States (+DC) adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact] are only the current 16 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.
-
[States (+DC) adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact] are fewer than 16 ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.
-
[States (+DC) adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact] have been joined by at least one other state ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.
-
[States (+DC) adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact] have been joind by at least 4 other states ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.
-
[States (+DC) adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact] have >= 229 electoral votes ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.
-
[States (+DC) adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact] have >= 270 electoral votes ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.
-
The African Continental Free Trade Area is operational between all countries it is legally in force for, with the treaty effectively governing all the trade its text covers ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.
-
[Personal] I'll still take Melatonin daily at the end of 2020 (remains true if I forget it <0.05 of the time) ( 95% confidence )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-01-16; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by sty.silver on 2020-12-29.
-
[Personal] At the end of 2020, Dominion online will still be around, have the same rating system, and my rating will be at least 62 ( 40% confidence )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-01-16; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-29.
-
After the US election, media coverage and public sentiment regarding Coronavirus will greatly shift towards a view that its not all that bad. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by kenlogan@gmail.com on 2020-08-12; known on 2020-12-29; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-12-29.
-
In Finland before 2021-01-01 someone is vaccinated against COVID-19 with non-experimental vaccine approved for use in Finland ( 80% confidence )
Created by kuudes on 2020-10-16; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2020-12-29.
-
I do at least 8 more days of Advent of Code (out of 10 remaining) ( 25% confidence )
Created by platypus42 on 2020-12-15; known on 2020-12-25; judged wrong by platypus42 on 2020-12-27.
-
I do at least 5 more days of Advent of Code (out of 10 remaining) ( 60% confidence )
Created by platypus42 on 2020-12-15; known on 2020-12-25; judged wrong by platypus42 on 2020-12-27.
-
I do at least 3 more days of Advent of Code (out of 10 remaining) ( 85% confidence )
Created by platypus42 on 2020-12-15; known on 2020-12-25; judged right by platypus42 on 2020-12-27.
-
Entre os dias 11 de janeiro de 2020 e 26 de dezembro de 2020, publicarei ao menos 35 edições da minha newsletter semanal ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2020-01-04; known on 2020-12-27; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2020-12-27.
-
A digital 4K video camera will be available for under US$4000 by the end of 2013. ( 80% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by dusk on 2013-01-24; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by dusk on 2020-12-25.
-
“Less than 500 of the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II will ever be built” [Pierre Sprey] ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by dusk on 2013-08-15; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by dusk on 2020-12-25.
-
At least 2.9 million Americans will receive the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine in the first week of vaccinations (by December 19 at midnight EST) ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Liface on 2020-12-11; known on 2020-12-20; judged wrong by Liface on 2020-12-21.
-
I will leave the office at 6 PM today ( 70% confidence )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-12-18; known on 2020-12-19; judged right by srconstantin on 2020-12-21.
-
Zhongguo will ≥ 6.5% real GDP growth rate from 2015-2020. ( 95% confidence; 6 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-04; known on 2020-12-25; judged wrong by nigr on 2020-12-19.
-
bitcoin will rise above $20k at least once before May 1st (six months from now) ( 55% confidence )
Created by LukeS on 2020-11-01; known on 2021-05-01; judged right by LukeS on 2020-12-18.
-
Max Verstappen will win the 2020 F1 World Championship. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by skateboard34 on 2019-12-12; known on 2020-12-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-18.
-
The first approved COVID19 vaccine will be Moderna's ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-06-29; known on 2022-06-29; judged wrong by srconstantin on 2020-12-18.
-
[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] April ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Stucwerk on 2020-12-17.