Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 53% | 65% | 78% | 86% | 94% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 616 | 437 | 419 | 458 | 711 | 175 | 2816 |
Displaying all predictions made by JoshuaZ. Filter by:
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I'll keep translating a post from the Sequences a day for a week ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Nikolas on 2015-08-16; known on 2015-08-24; judged wrong by Nikolas on 2015-08-20.
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Air pollution, pesticides, and/or EMF will be found responsible for the apparent rise in neurological diseases among the elderly ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-16; known on 2065-01-02.
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Greater than 25% of US utility companies that exist as of 2015 will file for bankruptcy by 2035 ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-16; known on 2035-01-01.
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Epic Systems will be the predominant source of EMRs by 2020 ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-16; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-18.
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We will be able to robustly search audio files by text by 2025 ( 78% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-16; known on 2026-01-01.
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I'll finish Halmos Naive Set Theory by Aug 31 ( 34% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Nikolas on 2015-08-15; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by Nikolas on 2015-09-02.
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Of the total-coloring conjecture, list coloring conjecture, the EFL conjecture, and the Hardwiger conjecture, by Jan 1, 2042, either a triplet of them shown to imply the other, or one of them shown to be undecidable. ( 52% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-15; known on 2042-01-01.
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By 2042, solar energy will cost half or less of what fossil-fuel based alternatives do. ( 53% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-15; known on 2042-01-01.
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By 2025, “solar energy will cost half or less of what fossil-fuel-based alternatives do” – Vivek Wadhwa ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-15; known on 2025-01-01.
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My Facebook Page [https://www.facebook.com/ltasbblog] will have 300+ Likes by the end of September. ( 30% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dvdddg on 2015-08-14; known on 2015-09-30; judged wrong by unexpectedEOF on 2015-10-01.
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I will keep making a prediction a day until Aug 31 ( 46% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Nikolas on 2015-08-14; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by Nikolas on 2015-08-19.
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I will have moved into my new flat on time. ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-08-14; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-08-30.
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Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license. ( 14% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by quanticle on 2015-08-14; known on 2025-08-15.
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NYSE:BG will drop below $73.00 at any point by September 15, 2015 ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Dapple on 2015-08-14; known on 2015-09-15; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-08-20.
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The level of Austin, TX's Lake Travis will slip below 665.0 feet by the end of 2015. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2015-08-13; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by unexpectedEOF on 2015-10-24.
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“By 2020, solar energy will be price-competitive with energy generated from fossil fuels on an unsubsidized basis in most parts of the world.” – Vivek Wadhwa ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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The average winning bid for the 2016 NYC Individual Accessible taxi medallion auction will be below $700,000. ( 52% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2015-08-13; known on 2016-05-16.
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More than 25% of consumer goods will be 3D printed during 2025 ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-12; known on 2026-01-01.
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I successfully arbitrage PredictIt with >10% pre-tax ROI at the end of the Republican National Convention ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Dapple on 2015-08-12; known on 2016-07-21; judged right by Dapple on 2016-07-13.
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Vandiver conjecture to not be resolved before January 1, 2017. ( 94% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-12; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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I will buy another book written by Brandon Sanderson before next March. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-12; known on 2016-03-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-01.
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NTRU found to be fundamentally vulnerable to quantum computer based attacks by January 1, 2042. ( 65% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-12; known on 2042-01-01.
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Magic to return on a large scale (like in Shadowrun) by January 1, 2035. ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-12; known on 2035-01-01.
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New Mersenne prime discovered by January 1, 2030. ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-12; known on 2030-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-20.
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New Mersenne prime discovered by January 1, 2035. ( 100% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-12; known on 2035-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-20.
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In the next month, Bernie Sanders will have another public appearance disrupted by BLM activists. ( 18% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-12; known on 2015-09-12; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-09-17.
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I won't get hit by a bus today. ( 99% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-12; known on 2015-08-13; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-13.
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Conditional on PredictIt still being around by January 1, 2017 I will have doubled my initial set of money on PredictIt by that date. ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-11; known on 2017-01-02; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-02.
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A258107 to be proven to be finite by January 1, 2045. ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-10; known on 2045-01-01.
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Boson Sampling or Scattershot Boson Sampling with at least 10 photons to be performed by January 1, 2020. ( 35% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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Boson Sampling or Scattershot Boson Sampling with at least 10 photons to be performed by January 1, 2026. ( 65% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-10; known on 2026-01-01.
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Clinton to be Democratic nominee ( 84% confidence; 13 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-10; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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Donald Trump to be the next elected President of the United Stated. ( 21% confidence; 53 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-10; known on 2016-11-12; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-09.
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Uber's valuation to be less than half that of its 2015 valuation by 2022 ( 30% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-09; known on 2023-01-01.
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Lockheed Martin claims up to 3500 F-35 will be ordered. A look at the price and the previous track record of the F-22 instead leads to a certainty that all orders combined will be lucky to hit 940. That is 1/4 of LM claims. ( 52% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-21; known on 2020-05-23.
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India to have its own manned space flight by January 1, 2025 ( 62% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-07; known on 2025-01-01.
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India to have its own manned space flight by January 1, 2018. ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-01.
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Trump will either win the Republican nomination or run as an Independent. ( 53% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Makhura47 on 2015-08-07; known on 2016-09-30; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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Dire Wolves to be resurrected by 2100 ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-06; known on 2100-01-01.
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Cave Bear to be resurrected by 2100 ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-06; known on 2100-01-01.
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Woolly Mammoth to be resurrected by 2100 ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-06; known on 2100-01-01.
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No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2100. ( 70% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-05; known on 2100-01-01.
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SENS Foundation to reach a budget of 10 million dollars a year by 2020 (https://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/3fri9a/ask_aubrey_de_grey_anything/ctrjwxm ) ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-05; known on 2021-01-01.
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World of Warcraft will be shut dow before 2023 ( 28% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by silacoid on 2015-08-05; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by drakino on 2023-01-01.
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The chlorine attack on MWFF is found to have been targeted against furries per se for political reasons. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-12-10; known on 2015-06-10.
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Oil will account for a lower raw amount of energy consumption in 2030 than in 2020 ( 63% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-04; known on 2031-01-01.
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We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040 ( 52% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-04; known on 2041-01-01.
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HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire) ( 56% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-04; known on 2041-01-01.
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Greater than 70% of cars bought in 2020 will be electric ( 13% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by espore on 2015-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-07-05.
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Humans will be sent to Mars ( 59% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by espore on 2015-08-02; known on 2035-10-16.
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A true general intelligence AI will be created ( 92% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by espore on 2015-08-02; known on 2080-10-16.
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The conservatives will win the next general election in the UK ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by espore on 2015-08-02; known on 2020-08-04; judged right by HonoreDB on 2018-01-04.
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Made-for-delivery restaurants like Sprig will account for at least 10% of restaurant purchases by 2025 (https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-future-of-food-delivery-1/answer/Adam-DAngelo) ( 39% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-01; known on 2026-01-01.
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There will NOT be a “World War III” within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's “allies” and NATO and/or western europe) ( 93% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Snorkelfarsan on 2015-07-31; known on 2025-07-01.
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WWIII starts before 2030. ( 8% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Dak on 2015-07-31; known on 2030-07-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030 ( 19% confidence; 17 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-29; known on 2031-01-01.
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The US Congress will override the Iran nuclear deal. ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-07-29; known on 2015-10-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-10-01.
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“Some p2p cryptocurrency is going to become THE world reserve currency this decade” – Jacob Cannell ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2021-01-01.
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A substance will be found with a melting point of at least 7,520 F by 2030. ( 65% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-28; known on 2030-01-01.
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The Boy Scouts will admit openly atheist scouts before 2020 ( 27% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by btrettel on 2015-07-28; known on 2020-01-02; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-01-02.
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The Boy Scouts will admit openly atheist scouts before 2050 ( 79% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-07-28; known on 2050-01-01.
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By 2025, at least five top-ranking Western Ph.D. psychology programmes (out of a plausible 'world top 10' at the time) will require the conduction a high-quality “direct” replication attempt of a major finding in their research area. ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RoryS on 2015-07-19; known on 2026-01-01.
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The Mormon church will decide to cease operating Boy Scout troops or operate troops under a different organization by 2016 ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-07-28; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-01-01.
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Blockchain-based social platform to come out by 2020, and become a Top 1000 site (https://medium.com/@ryanxcharles/fix-reddit-with-bitcoin-7da3f85fb9ba ) ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2021-01-01.
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Strong AI to arise out of IBM ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2099-01-01.
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Bitcoin will collapse as a currency by 2030 ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2031-01-01.
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California almond production to be less than 50% that of 2015 by 2025 ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2026-01-01.
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Titan to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2099-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2099-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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Europa to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2099-01-01.
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At least one centenarian to volunteer for anti amyloid therapy by 2025 ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-27; known on 2026-01-16.
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YouTube to allow searching videos by audio contained in the video by 2025 ( 66% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-27; known on 2026-01-16.
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Manually driving a car will be outlawed in the U.S. by 2035 ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-27; known on 2036-01-01; judged unknown by InquilineKea on 2015-08-04.
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John Kerry to run for President in 2016 ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-26; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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“by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system” ( 5% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-26; known on 2031-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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I'll write a prediction every day for the next week (Sat-Fri) ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Nikolas on 2015-07-25; known on 2015-07-31; judged right by Nikolas on 2015-07-31.
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Movie theaters to be less popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-25; known on 2021-01-01.
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PredictionBook will feature a JSON API before August. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-07-24; known on 2015-08-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-08-01.
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Use of cell phones common as of 2015 will be considered carcinogenic by 2065-08-01 ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-07-24; known on 2065-08-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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At least one major stock exchange will have 24/7 trading hours before the end of 2030 ( 63% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2015-07-23; known on 2030-12-31; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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Kepler 425b to have detectable life on it ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-23; known on 2099-01-01.
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Donald Trump to run as a third party candidate in the 2016 election. ( 11% confidence; 19 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-23; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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By July 1, 2016, Younes and Rowe's paper claiming to prove that NP is in BQP will not be widely accepted as correct. ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-23; known on 2016-07-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-07-01.
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My future will be bright and enjoyable. ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-07-21; known on 2016-12-30; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-12-29.
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Humanity to land on an asteroid before landing on Mars ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-20; known on 2090-01-01.
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Humanity to land on Phobos before landing on Mars ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-20; known on 2090-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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US bicycle mode share will be over 1% in the 2030 Census ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-07-19; known on 2032-01-01.
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No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040. ( 86% confidence; 24 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-19; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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Zhōnghuá will be the world's biggest economy in both PPP and GDP terms in 2022 as measured by the IMF. It is already the world's biggest economy in PPP terms and 2nd in nominal terms (2015). Lant Pritchett and Lawrence H. Summers disagree. ( 61% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-14; known on 2022-12-27; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-19.
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When my Kindle Voyage ( imported through US friends to avoid an Amazon shipping restriction ) arrives , all functionality including 3G will work here in Norway ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by silacoid on 2015-07-18; known on 2015-07-30; judged right by silacoid on 2015-07-21.
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2020s to be warmer than the 2010s ( 83% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-18; known on 2031-01-01.
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Volume of physical books sold in 2020 to be greater than that in 2015 ( 27% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-17; known on 2021-01-01.
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Airbnb to be acquired by 2025 ( 34% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-17; known on 2026-01-01.
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US 2016 Presidential election to be Trump v. Sanders ( 5% confidence; 40 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-17; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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Samsung to be more valuable in 2025 than 2010 ( 65% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-16; known on 2026-01-01.
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At least one of the Voyagers to outlast the James Webb Space Telescope ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-16; known on 2026-01-01.
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Syriza will not be part of the majority coalition after the next Greek election. ( 44% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by quanticle on 2015-07-15; known on 2019-01-20; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-09-24.
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Cascadia megathrust earthquake (of magnitude 8+) to hit Seattle before 2030 ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2031-01-01.
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Minecraft to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2021-10-13.
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http://fivethirtyeight.com/ to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 51% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-01.