Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 100% | 100% | 67% | 100% | 50% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
Displaying all predictions made by OpenPhilUnofficial. Filter by:
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Fewer than 75 people participate in Protect the People's Haiti H-2A program in 2016 ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2021-10-17; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2021-10-17.
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The Alpha Pundit Challenge, or something like it, will have converted five or more vague predictions from pundits into numerical predictions, beyond those described in Tetlock, Alpha Pundit Challenge Proposal, by December 31, 2016 ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2019-01-01.
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On 2018-01-01, Open Philanthropy Research Analyst Ajeya Cotra thinks CEA’s support of EA student groups has improved since September 2016 (conditional on Ajeya feeling she has enough evidence to make such a judgment) ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01.
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On 2018-01-01, Nick Beckstead believes that cause prioritization working groups at universities are a cost-effective way of identifying new talent in the EA community (cond. on there being at least 3 such working groups, which he thinks is likely) ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01.
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Nick Beckstead considers EA Global 2017 better executed than EA Global 2016 ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2027-04-01; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-10-28.
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By 2017-12-01, CEA provides compelling evidence that standard marketing and outreach (e.g. online ads) result on average in a new GWWC pledge for less than $2,000 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2019-12-01.
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By 2017-12-01, CEA provides compelling evidence that EAGx events result on average in a new GWWC pledge for less than $2,000 ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2019-12-01.
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By 2017-12-01, CEA provides compelling evidence that the Doing Good Better book giveaway results on average in a new GWWC pledge for less than $2,000 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2019-12-01.
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[The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] Between 3,500 and 5,000 (1.4x–2x growth) ( 50% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01.
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[The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] More than 7,500 (more than 3x growth) ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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[The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] Between 5,000 and 7,500 (2x–3x growth) ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-01-26.
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[The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] Less than 3,500 (i.e., growth to 1.4x the current total or less) ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-01-26.
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[The amount of money raised by 80,000 Hours by February 1, 2017, not including funding from the Open Philanthropy Project, will be at least] $750,000 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2019-02-01; judged right by wizzwizz4 on 2019-12-15.
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[The amount of money raised by 80,000 Hours by February 1, 2017, not including funding from the Open Philanthropy Project, will be at least] $1,250,000 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2019-12-15.
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80,000 Hours hires at least two staff members in 2017 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01.
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[The number of impact-adjusted plan changes in 2017 claimed by 80,000 Hours will be at least] 1,500 ( 66% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01.
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[The number of impact-adjusted plan changes in 2017 claimed by 80,000 Hours will be at least] 2,400 ( 33% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will want to invest at least an additional $5 million in some of the animal welfare groups groups for their work in China after the two-year grant period is over ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2021-09-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will want to invest at least an additional $3 million in some of the animal welfare groups for their work in China after the two-year grant period is over ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2021-09-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will want to invest at least an additional $1 million in some of the animal welfare groups for their work in China after the two-year grant period is over ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2021-09-01.
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The WildAid campaign will contribute to a noticeable decline in the growth of Chinese meat consumption by 2019-10-01 ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2021-10-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Brighter Green a major success ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2026-10-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Brighter Green a success ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2026-10-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to support the work of Professor Deborah Cao a major success ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2027-01-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to support the work of Professor Deborah Cao a success ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2027-01-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Green Monday a success ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2026-12-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Green Monday a major success ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2027-12-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Jeanne Marchig Centre a major success ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-04-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Jeanne Marchig Centre a success ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-04-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Humane Slaughter Association (HSA) a major success ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-07-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Humane Slaughter Association (HSA) a success ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-07-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to The Royal Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals (RSPCA) a major success ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-03-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to The Royal Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals (RSPCA) a success ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-03-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Compassion in World Farming a major success ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-03-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Compassion in World Farming a success ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-03-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to World Animal Protection a major success ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2026-11-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to World Animal Protection a success ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2026-11-01.
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CIWF USA will play a major role in securing five or more new corporate cage-free pledges ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2026-05-01.
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CIWF USA will persuade at least one major poultry company to adopt a meaningful broiler chicken welfare policy ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2026-05-01.
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Pastor Kenneth Glasgow’s pastor network will play an influential role in the upcoming legislative sessions (for some definition of “influential” that Open Philanthropy Project is comfortable with in retrospect) ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2026-08-01.
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By 2016-10-01, the Prodigal Child Project will have made enough progress for more than 75 pastors to show significant support for incarceration reform (through, e.g., attending rallies, writing op-eds, giving sermons, or other actions) ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2018-10-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project's December 2016 grant to Impact Justice's Restorative Justice Project will play an important role in getting traction for the concept of restorative justice on a national level (United States) by 2020-01-01 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2022-01-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its December 2016 grant to Impact Justice for its Restorative Justice Project a cost-effective success on 2018-01-01 ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01.
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Professor Trevor Gaunt follows up or causes someone else to follow up with a proposal to widely effect positive policy change in this area [potential risks that geomagnetic storms] by 2027-10-01 ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2029-10-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its September 2016 University of Cape Town Geomagnetics Research grant a success given that Professor Gaunt completes at least 80% of the work ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2027-10-01.
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Professor Trevor Gaunt will complete 80% of the work for the Open Philanthropy Project Geomagnetics Research grant by 2019-10-01 ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2021-10-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project considers its December 2016 grant to Harvard University's Solar Geoengineering Research Program a success on 2027-01-01 ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2029-01-01.
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On 2018-09-01, the Center for Human-Compatible AI will be spending at least $2 million a year, and will be considered by one or more of Open Philanthropy Project's relevant technical advisors to have a reasonably good reputation in the field ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2020-09-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Animal Welfare Standards Project a major success ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-01-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Animal Welfare Standards Project a success ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-01-01.