Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 20% | 100% | 80% | 100% | 91% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 5 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 30 |
Displaying all predictions made by itaibn. Filter by:
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HP MoR: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains an ordinary rock ( 40% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-16.
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I will publish the fanfic I am currently working on to either ff.net or Archive of Our Own by the end of the year. ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Calien on 2014-08-19; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-04.
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Someone will get a 500$ award from Chris Hallquist for convincing him to cancel his cryonics submission ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by itaibn on 2014-01-11; known on 2040-01-01.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky has never read a book written by Andrea Dworkin. ( 76% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by tedks on 2014-01-08; known on 2014-01-08.
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World of Warcraft Warlords of Draenor will be released around the summer. June, July or August. I would bet anything on it! :) ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sebbiboy on 2014-01-08; known on 2014-01-08; judged wrong by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-29.
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A cryptocurrency that could have been created by http://coingen.bluematt.me/ achives market cap > 50% of bitcoin's in the next five years. ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lavalamp on 2014-01-06; known on 2019-01-06; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-11.
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A different cryptocurrency beats Bitcoin in market cap at some point during the year. ( 7% confidence; 31 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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Ireland will legalize Marijuana between 2021 and 2024 ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by deanmullen2014 on 2013-12-31; known on 2025-01-01.
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“Bitcoin will trade for under $10 a share by the first half of 2014.” — Mark T. Williams (http://www.businessinsider.com/williams-bitcoin-meltdown-10-2013-12) ( 5% confidence; 21 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2013-12-18; known on 2014-07-01; judged wrong by clemux on 2014-07-01.
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There will be a breach of a large cloud service provider that will compromise thousands of sensitive accounts within this decade. ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by SRA311B on 2013-12-07; known on 2020-12-31.
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Bitcoin falls to a value of less than 1$ per Bitcoin by the end of 2014. (prediction inspired by http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1qvbzk/bloomberg_us_agencies_to_say_bitcoins_offer/cdh3ty2 ) ( 2% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-20; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.
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HPMoR will update with chapter 97 on Wednesday the 14th of August. ( 73% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ygert on 2013-08-11; known on 2013-08-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-08-15.
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Rand Paul will win the presidential election. He will go against the NSA, surveillance, drone strikes… all the “hot issues” for the new generation. Thousands of people will register as Republicans and vote for him to fight for a free Internet. ( 3% confidence; 21 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by tinatoys on 2013-08-03; known on 2016-11-06; judged wrong by jgauthier on 2016-11-07.
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HP MoR: The snake patronus is from Draco. ( 90% confidence; 22 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-25; known on 2013-08-21; judged right by lavalamp on 2013-08-15.
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OOTS: Vaarsuvius's gender will be revealed in one of the comic strips or in the additional material of the published versions. ( 15% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by itaibn on 2013-05-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2020-01-02.
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xkcd #1217 will be composed primarily of a graph or diagram. ( 17% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by itaibn on 2013-05-24; known on 2013-05-27; judged wrong by itaibn on 2013-05-27.
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The Magic set “Theros” will have a legend subtheme, hereby defined as: at least 20 legends and at least 5 cards that explicitly interact with legends. ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-05-23; known on 2013-09-27; judged wrong by Roxolan on 2013-09-14.
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There exist infinitely many primes no more than 500,000 apart, proven by 2035 ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-05-14; known on 2035-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-06-06.
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OOTS: Comic #887 is Elan's prophesized happy ending. ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by itaibn on 2013-05-13; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by itaibn on 2013-05-22.
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Bitcoin was created by a group of programmers who called themselves “Satoshi Nakomoto” and were not employed by a state or a corporation for the express purpose of making Bitcoin ( 19% confidence; 19 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-05-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Bitcoin was created by a lone programmer who wanted to hide his identity ( 45% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-05-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Titan has two semi-connected biospheres, one on the surface, and one under the ice crust. ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-04-23; known on 2113-04-23.
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BTC hits $1000 in the next 10 years ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-19; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2013-11-28.
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The next US president (after Obama) will also be a Democrat. ( 53% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Osuniev on 2013-04-15; known on 2016-11-15; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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OOTS: While lambasting V about hir familicide, Qarr will unintentionally inspire hir to start acting. ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by itaibn on 2013-04-12; known on 2013-07-01; judged wrong by itaibn on 2013-04-26.
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xkcd “Time” will show its last unique frame before May 1 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by itaibn on 2013-03-31; known on 2013-05-01; judged wrong by itaibn on 2013-05-01.
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xkcd “Time” will show its last unique frame before 2014 ( 94% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by itaibn on 2013-03-31; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by itaibn on 2013-07-29.
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HPMoR: Quirrels prediction that Voldemort killed the snake in the chamber of secrets will turn out to incorrect. ( 16% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ChristianKl on 2013-03-24; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by player_03 on 2015-03-04.
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By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI. ( 6% confidence; 24 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2021-01-01.
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Nosek's project to replicate findings from three major psychology journals will find that >=30% of them are failed replications. ( 73% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by lweismantel on 2012-04-19; known on 2013-04-01; judged right by hedges on 2015-05-01.