Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Oct-Nov-Dec 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions ( 43% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2020-01-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-10.
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Sensors/cameras in london public sewers, at least one UK citizen fined for putting tampons down the toilet ( 51% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-22; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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Almost all commercial airplanes will have wifi by 2019 ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by cmessinger on 2015-08-17; known on 2019-01-07; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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“Joe Biden leads the Democratic field” ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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In five years, we will carry one device instead of many (phone, tablet, laptop), with various external inputs based on need (keyboard, mouse) & outputs (big screen, projector). ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Legioona on 2015-09-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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Tesla's stock price will be below $200 per share on 01/01/2020. ( 60% confidence )
Created by FestiveBleak on 2018-07-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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No human beats the best Go AI in an unhandicapped competitive game by 2020 ( 90% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by mortehu on 2017-01-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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“SpaceX Starship reaches orbit” ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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The UK will hold a second EU referendum before it officially is no longer part of the EU ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jasticE on 2016-06-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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Establishment Republicans split from GOP and start a third party. ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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'75% probability of [eyewear computing] being mainstream, or at least not unusual, by 2020.' —orangecat ( 36% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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Self driving vehicle (level 4) drives legally on public UK roads before end 2019 ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by penten on 2016-09-29; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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“Global Average Temperature for 2019 to be higher than for 2009” —Intrade ( 90% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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“Global Average Temperature for 2019 to be 0.2 degrees celsius (or more) higher than for 2009” —Intrade ( 85% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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“The average European unemployment rate for 2009-2018 (i.e., the next decade) will be at least 1% higher than U.S. unemployment rate.” Bryan Caplan ( 73% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-24; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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The desktop and laptop computer industry will be made obsolete by modular smart phones or mobile devices by 2020. E.g., a smart phone capable of wirelessly interfacing with a keyboard, mouse, and monitor. ( 54% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by fork on 2011-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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People communicate with their computers via two-way speech and gestures instead of with keyboards. Furthermore, most of this interaction occurs through computerized assistants with different personalities that the user can select or customize. —Ray Kurz ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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“We will end the decade with some mobile [electronics] energy storage system with an energy density close to or better than fat metabolism.” —W.H. Pearson ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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Most people own more than one P.C., though the concept of what a “computer” is has changed considerably: Computers are no longer limited in design to laptops or CPUs contained in a large box connected to a monitor. Instead, devices with computer capabilit ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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These special glasses and contact lenses can deliver “augmented reality” and “virtual reality” in three different ways. First, they can project “heads-up-displays” (HUDs) across the user's field of vision, superimposing images that stay in place in the en ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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“By 2020, GE crops will be grown on 10 fold more acreage than they are today, will be widely accepted by consumers and will have clearly benefited the goals of sustainable agriculture” ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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“US homicides will decline” ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-07.
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“Malaria deaths will decrease” ( 85% confidence; 6 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-07.
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“More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018” ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-07.
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“Impossible Burger meat will be sold in at least one national grocery chain” ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-01-07.
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“Fully autonomous self-driving cars will not be commercially available as taxis or for sale” ( 90% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-07.
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“DeepMind will release an AlphaZero update, or new app, capable of beating humans and existing computer programs at a task in a new domain” ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-07.
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“Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2018” ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-07.
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“Global carbon emissions will increase” ( 91% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-07.
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“By 2020, an Earth-like habitable extrasolar planet is detected.” —Kevin ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-07.
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[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gracias al voto y/o abstención del bloque PP+Vox+Ciudadanos+NA+ ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-07.
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[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gracias al voto y/o abstención del bloque PSOE+Podemos+MP sin indepes ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-07.
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[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gracias al voto y/o abstención del bloque PSOE+Podemos+MP e indepes ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-07.
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[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gracias al voto y/o abstención del PPSOE ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-07.
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[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno presidido por ninguno de los anteriores (independiente, Teruel Existe…) ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-07.
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[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno presidido por Podemos ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-07.
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[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno presidido por el PP ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-07.
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[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno presidido por el PSOE ( 59% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-07.
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[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se repetiran sin formar gobierno ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-07.
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[Cato: The number of predictions in December 2019 by Cato to be exactly] 13 or more ( 64% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-11-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-07.
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N is sent back to Russia ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-05-22; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during December 2019 to be] under $40 ( 3% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2020-01-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during December 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 ( 18% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2020-01-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during December 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99 ( 27% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2020-01-07; judged right by Cato on 2020-01-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during December 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99 ( 18% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2020-01-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during December 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99 ( 13% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2020-01-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during December 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99 ( 8% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2020-01-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during December 2019 to be] higher than $100 ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2020-01-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-07.
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[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for November 2019 to exceed 50% ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2020-01-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-07.
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Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence. ( 11% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-09-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by jasticE on 2020-02-01.