Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 100% | 0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
Displaying all predictions made by Mathias Zaman. Filter by:
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HPMOR: By the end of the story, it will turn out that the troll actually killed Hermione. ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Mathias Zaman on 2014-11-19; known on 2015-04-15; judged right by Mathias Zaman on 2015-03-11.
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Eliezer will publish at least one HPMOR chapter this month. ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ygert on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-04-01; judged wrong by on 2014-04-01.
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A virtual reality headset (Oculus Rift-esque) sells more than a million units within the next 5 years. ( 85% confidence; 23 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by adbge on 2013-12-26; known on 2018-12-26; judged right by bendini on 2017-06-05.
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The 2013 Less Wrong Survey will show more than 60% of the participants to be men. ( 94% confidence; 31 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Mathias Zaman on 2013-12-01; known on 2014-01-31; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-01-19.
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HP MoR: The snake patronus is from Quirrell. ( 1% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-25; known on 2013-08-21; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2013-08-15.
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HP MoR: The snake patronus is from Draco. ( 90% confidence; 22 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-25; known on 2013-08-21; judged right by lavalamp on 2013-08-15.
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Minotaurs will be a tribe in Theros. ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Mathias Zaman on 2013-07-15; known on 2013-09-21; judged right by Mathias Zaman on 2014-11-19.