Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 86% | 33% | 80% | 100% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 7 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 44 |
Displaying all predictions made by gallerdude. Filter by:
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China will attempt an invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2025. ( 20% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2021-04-09; known on 2025-12-31.
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SpaceX Starship to not have any crewed launches before 2030. ( 30% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-15; known on 2030-01-01.
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Master Chief from Halo is the final smash character ( 20% confidence )
Created by gallerdude on 2021-10-05; known on 2021-10-05; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2021-10-05.
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Sora from Kingdom Hearts is the final smash character ( 33% confidence )
Created by gallerdude on 2021-10-05; known on 2021-10-05; judged right by gallerdude on 2021-10-05.
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Open AI will announce a new language model at least 100x bigger than GPT-3 (175Gb) in number of parameters before the end of 2022 ( 47% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by razcle on 2021-07-21; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2023-01-01.
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Will there be at least another 3 episodes of the Hello Internet podcast? The Podcast had a rather irregular schedule, but there hasn't been another episode since the 28th February 2020. ( 42% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Morpheus on 2021-05-14; known on 2031-05-15.
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AR glasses announced at Apple Event ( 10% confidence )
Created by gallerdude on 2021-04-20; known on 2021-04-20; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2021-04-20.
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Apple TV announced at Apple Event ( 33% confidence )
Created by gallerdude on 2021-04-20; known on 2021-04-20; judged right by gallerdude on 2021-04-20.
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AirTags announced at Apple Event ( 75% confidence )
Created by gallerdude on 2021-04-20; known on 2021-04-20; judged right by gallerdude on 2021-04-20.
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iMac with Apple Silicon announced at Apple Event ( 40% confidence )
Created by gallerdude on 2021-04-20; known on 2021-04-20; judged right by gallerdude on 2021-04-20.
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iPad Pro w/ MiniLED announced at Apple Event ( 90% confidence )
Created by gallerdude on 2021-04-20; known on 2021-04-20; judged right by gallerdude on 2021-04-20.
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SpaceX Starship to land on moon by end of 2026. ( 51% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-04-16; known on 2027-01-01; judged unknown by Jayson Virissimo on 2021-05-04.
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SpaceX to land a version of Starship on Mars by the end of 2026. ( 27% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-03-24; known on 2027-01-01.
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joe biden dies in presidency ( 5% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-26; known on 2025-02-26.
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2/26 Pokémon Presents – Pokémon SwSh DLC ( 33% confidence )
Created by gallerdude on 2021-02-26; known on 2021-02-26; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2021-02-26.
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2/26 Pokémon Presents – Sinnoh Remakes ( 50% confidence )
Created by gallerdude on 2021-02-26; known on 2021-02-26; judged right by gallerdude on 2021-02-26.
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2/26 Pokémon Presents – Pokémon Let's Go Johto ( 25% confidence )
Created by gallerdude on 2021-02-26; known on 2021-02-26; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2021-02-26.
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2/26 Pokémon Presents – Pokémon Snap Release Date ( 50% confidence )
Created by gallerdude on 2021-02-26; known on 2021-02-26; judged right by gallerdude on 2021-02-26.
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Proof that P≠NP (confirmed by Scott Aaronson) in 2021. ( 1% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.
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Proof that P=NP (confirmed by Scott Aaronson) in 2021. ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2022-01-01.
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Doomslayer from Doom is a Smash Ultimate DLC character ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gallerdude on 2018-12-10; known on 2020-02-01; judged wrong by Medea on 2020-03-13.
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Sans from Undertale is a Smash Ultimate DLC character ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gallerdude on 2018-12-10; known on 2020-02-01; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2021-10-05.
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Steve from Minecraft is a Smash Ultimate DLC character ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gallerdude on 2018-12-10; known on 2020-02-15; judged right by gallerdude on 2021-08-18.
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Tumblr will revert the decision to ban pornography (to take effect in Dec 17) in the next 3 months. ( 33% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jazzsolo on 2018-12-03; known on 2019-03-03; judged wrong by jazzsolo on 2019-03-04.
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Oculus will not realese a headset more expensive than 500$ in the next 5 years. ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jazzsolo on 2018-12-01; known on 2023-12-01.
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Trump wins Nobel ( 10% confidence; 41 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2018-05-03; known on 2030-01-01.
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Donald Trump will lose the next election. ( 62% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-04-03; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-11-07.
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Smash for switch will support the use of Gamecube controllers, either on release or within 18 months of release. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2020-06-16; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-07-09.
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There will be no Smash Tour minigame in Smash for Switch. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by gallerdude on 2018-12-10.
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Another character from Breath of the Wild will be added in Smash for Switch, either on release or within 18 months of release. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2020-06-16; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2020-12-07.
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[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Wii Fit Trainer ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-06-12.
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[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Charizard ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-06-12.
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[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Dark Pit ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-06-12.
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Donald Trump remains president at end of year. ( 93% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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I predict that humans will land on mars by 2030 ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bacon1001 on 2018-01-25; known on 2030-01-01.
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North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022 ( 5% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2018-01-19; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2022-01-01.
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BTCUSD will exceed 20000 during 2018 ( 28% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sjy on 2018-01-17; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2018-12-31.
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Hillary Clinton is indicted by the end of 2018 ( 3% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2019-01-01.
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Trump will leave office early instead of being impeached. ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Dr K on 2018-01-07; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.
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Francis is still Pope on 1/1/19 ( 87% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Christopher Nolan directs Bond 25 ( 70% confidence )
Created by gallerdude on 2017-12-26; known on 2019-11-08; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2018-05-08.
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Rian Johnson’s new Star Wars trilogy takes place before the Prequel Trilogy. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gallerdude on 2017-12-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.
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[SSBM] UCF will not be used at The Big House 8, Evo 2018, GENESIS 5, or any tournament with over 1750 entrants in 2018 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ambisinister on 2017-12-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by ambisinister on 2018-12-28.
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Donald Trump will not be impeached throughout his first term. ( 65% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Verres on 2017-12-21; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2019-12-31.
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Bernie Sanders will win the 2020 Dem. Presidential nomination ( 10% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2020-09-01; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
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Trump will be President on 12/31/18 ( 85% confidence; 18 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Democrats to gain control of US Senate in 2018 elections ( 43% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2017-12-14; known on 2018-11-07; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2018-11-07.
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SpaceX to beat Boeing in their informal space race (first boots on Mars). ( 80% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-12-12; known on 2022-01-16.
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Btc below 9k usd before 2018 ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Leohmarruda on 2017-12-03; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Bitcoin will end the year above $400. ( 84% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by timmartin on 2017-12-31.
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Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026 ( 3% confidence; 18 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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Marijuana decriminalized in canada in 2017 ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-02; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040. ( 68% confidence; 46 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by rwallace on 2009-10-14; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by freyley on 2009-10-21.