Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 100% | 60% | 60% | 90% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 1 | 30 |
Displaying all predictions made by Selentelechia. Filter by:
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Personal – I will still be employed by my current employer at the end of 2019 ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Selentelechia on 2019-01-16; known on 2020-01-01.
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Personal – I will be able to complete one unassisted pull-up at least once in 2019 ( 80% confidence )
Created by Selentelechia on 2019-01-16; known on 2020-01-01.
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Personal – I will squat 150lbs at least once in 2019 ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Selentelechia on 2019-01-16; known on 2020-01-01.
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Personal – I will bench press 100lbs at least once in 2019 ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Selentelechia on 2019-01-16; known on 2020-01-01.
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Personal – I will deadlift 200lbs at least once in 2019 ( 96% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Selentelechia on 2019-01-16; known on 2020-01-01.
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Personal – I will experience NENB at least once in 2019 ( 90% confidence )
Created by Selentelechia on 2019-01-16; known on 2020-01-01.
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Personal – I will have dated or be dating someone with the intent to make it a long-term relationship (considering marriage) by the end of 2019 ( 95% confidence )
Created by Selentelechia on 2019-01-16; known on 2020-01-01.
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Personal – My mother will undergo transplant surgery before the end of 2019 ( 63% confidence )
Created by Selentelechia on 2019-01-16; known on 2020-01-01.
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Personal – My mother will be called about the possibility of donor organs before the end of 2019 ( 71% confidence )
Created by Selentelechia on 2019-01-16; known on 2020-01-01.
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1 or more “CRISPR babies” will be announced before the end of 2019 ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Selentelechia on 2019-01-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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Trump will remain president as of January 1st, 2020 ( 89% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Selentelechia on 2019-01-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX) ( 3% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Leo on 2018-10-23; known on 2028-10-23.
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[ Brazil's next president will be] Bolsonaro or someone who espouses his law and order/anti-establishment platform ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Laudano on 2017-11-25; known on 2018-10-29; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-28.
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“The Long Now Foundation will no longer exist in 2104.” ( 59% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2104-01-01.
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Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2018 ( 82% confidence; 52 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2017-03-31; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Uber will go bankrupt, dissolve, or merge with another company by the end of 2018 ( 17% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sdr on 2017-03-20; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Worldwide treaty banning all nuclear weapons + plan to reduce weapon stocks to 0 in place. ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2019-06-15; judged wrong by AlexLamson on 2019-06-27.
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Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus. ( 99% confidence; 23 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-29; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2023-01-01.