Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 0% | 33% | 0% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
Displaying all predictions made by topherhunt. Filter by:
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At least 2.9 million Americans will receive the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine in the first week of vaccinations (by December 19 at midnight EST) ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Liface on 2020-12-11; known on 2020-12-20; judged wrong by Liface on 2020-12-21.
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Between 2020 and end of 2022, no non-Apple laptop will be released which performs better on general performance benchmarks than the lowest-priced laptop currently offered by Apple. ( 46% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by topherhunt on 2020-12-12; known on 2022-12-31.
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A new technique for developing “conversational AI” neural networks will be popularized, whose generated content is less based on word-by-word prediction (like GPT-3) and more based on the semantics and concepts expressed by those words. ( 32% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by topherhunt on 2020-12-12; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by sjy on 2023-02-24.
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GPT-3 or comparably advanced AI will be used to generate in-game AI behavior, gameplay logic, and/or story/plot content in a AAA game. ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by topherhunt on 2020-12-12; known on 2021-12-31; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-08.