Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
-
[Commodities: In at least one month between May 2019 and May 2020, Iraq crude oil production to fall below] 3 MMbpd ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-16; known on 2020-06-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
-
[Commodities: In at least one month between May 2019 and May 2020, Iraq crude oil production to fall below] 2 MMbpd ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-16; known on 2020-06-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
-
[Commodities: In at least one month between May 2019 and May 2020, Iraq crude oil production to fall below] 1 MMbpd ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-16; known on 2020-06-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
-
[No new polio cases in the semester ending] 30 June 2020 ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-23; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-06-11.
-
[US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] Joe Biden ( 40% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-25; judged right by Cato on 2020-06-11.
-
[US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] Elizabeth Warren ( 17% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-25; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
-
[US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] Bernie Sanders ( 14% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-25; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
-
[US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] Andrew Yang ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-25; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
-
[US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] Kamala Harris ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-25; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
-
[US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] Pete Buttigieg ( 9% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-25; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
-
[US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] Cory Booker ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-25; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
-
[US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] Beto O'Rourke ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-25; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
-
[US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] Amy Klobuchar ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-25; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
-
[US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] Julian Castro ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-25; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
-
[US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] any other candidate ( 5% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-25; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
-
[US Democratic primary: West Virginia winner to be] Joe Biden ( 27% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-13; judged right by Cato on 2020-06-11.
-
[US Democratic primary: West Virginia winner to be] Elizabeth Warren ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-13; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
-
[US Democratic primary: West Virginia winner to be] Bernie Sanders ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-13; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
-
[US Democratic primary: West Virginia winner to be] Kamala Harris ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-13; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
-
[US Democratic primary: West Virginia winner to be] Andrew Yang ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-13; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
-
[US Democratic primary: West Virginia winner to be] Pete Buttigieg ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-13; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
-
[US Democratic primary: West Virginia winner to be] Cory Booker ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-13; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
-
[US Democratic primary: West Virginia winner to be] Beto O'Rourke ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-13; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
-
[US Democratic primary: West Virginia winner to be] Julian Castro ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-13; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
-
[US Democratic primary: West Virginia winner to be] Amy Klobuchar ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-13; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
-
[US Democratic primary: West Virginia winner to be] any other candidate ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-13; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
-
[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of May 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] May 2019 ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-06-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-08.
-
[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of May 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] April 2020 ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-06-10; judged right by Cato on 2020-06-08.
-
North Korea is invaded by the end of 2017 ( 7% confidence; 24 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-07-29; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-06-07.
-
Politics, US – Officers placed on unpaid leave in Buffalo, in relation to the hospitalisation of a 75-year old man, are criminally charged in relation to this action by end of June. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-06; known on 2020-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
-
Personal – I weigh in at or below 70kg at least once before start of 2020-07-01. ( 85% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-08; known on 2020-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
-
Politics, UK – Court action for evictions is suspended further beyond the 25th of June. ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-15; known on 2020-06-25; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
-
Politics, UK – More than 50% of the UK's schools are open on the 1st of June 2020 ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-04-25; known on 2020-06-02; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
-
COVID, Sweden – Deaths due to COVID-19 exceed 350 on a single day in May 2020. ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-04-25; known on 2020-06-04; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
-
COVID, Sweden – Deaths due to COVID-19 exceed 250 on a single day in May 2020. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-04-25; known on 2020-06-04; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
-
Politics UK – The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) Regulations 2020 (6) restrictions on movement are lifted in full by end of May. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-02; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
-
Politics UK – The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) Regulations 2020 (6) restrictions on movement are lifted in full or amended by end of May. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-02; known on 2020-06-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
-
Politics UK – The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) Regulations 2020 (6) restrictions on movement are lifted in full or amended by end of May. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-02; known on 2020-06-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
-
Politics, UK – “The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) Regulations 2020 (4)” requirement to close premises and businesses is revoked or amended, or the list of affected businesses in Schedule 2 is amended, by end of May. ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-02; known on 2020-06-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
-
San Francisco will extend the shelter-in-place order beyond May 31st. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2020-05-02; known on 2020-06-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
-
Politics, India – Dr Sudhakar Rao released from mental hospital by end of May. ( 61% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-23; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
-
Personal, Productivity – I finish reading and making Anki cards for four more MIRI papers by end of May 2020. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-15; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
-
[Fighting] Alexander Gustafsson to fight again by 2020-06-06 ( 22% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-06-05; known on 2020-06-06; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-05.
-
[Hong Kong's 2020 Tiananmen Square Incident commemoration vigil] to be canceled/banned ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-06-05; judged right by Cato on 2020-06-05.
-
A US Navy vessel to sink or be destroyed in the Persian/Arab Gulf by May 2020 EOM ( 12% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-13; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-05.
-
US military to execute air strike or missile strike on Iranian territory or naval assets by May 2020 EOM ( 27% confidence; 19 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-13; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-05.
-
[Politics] Iran and US to establish formal diplomatic relations by May 2020 EOM ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-05.
-
Freeman Dyson to do an IAmA on reddit by 2020 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05.
-
Arivale (new Leroy Hood startup) will have 10,000 participants by 2020 ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05.
-
John Paul Stevens to become a centenarian ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05.