Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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[UNSONG] The Visitor in the Ark is Sarah the Laptop ( 90% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-07-15; known on 2016-12-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-10-03.
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[UNSONG] The Visitor in the Ark is Sarah the Laptop and she wants the body of Sarah Michelle Gellar ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-07-15; known on 2016-12-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-10-03.
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There will be no more juvenile seagulls around the garden by end of August. ( 20% confidence )
Created by blackRust on 2016-08-02; known on 2016-08-31; judged wrong by blackRust on 2016-10-02.
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There will be no more juvenile seagulls around the garden by end of September ( 50% confidence )
Created by blackRust on 2016-07-24; known on 2016-09-30; judged right by blackRust on 2016-10-02.
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Mitt Romney will run for president again in 2016. ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by woodse on 2015-01-15; known on 2016-10-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-10-01.
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2016 Election is Clinton vs Rubio. ( 12% confidence; 22 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-01-27; known on 2016-10-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-10-01.
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Government of United Kingdom has notified European Union of its intent to withdraw from Union as per article 50 para 2 of the Treaty on European Union. ( 28% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-07-13; known on 2016-10-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-10-01.
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The Balseraphs will not succeed in landing a single unit on the Amurite home continent. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Temeraire on 2016-03-08; known on 2016-07-03; judged right by Temeraire on 2016-10-01.
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The Anthropocene Working Group decides Anthropocene is a true geologic epoch ( 59% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-01; known on 2016-10-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-01.
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FBI investigation will find no criminal activity on Hillary Clinton's part. ( 80% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-09-30; known on 2016-10-01; judged right by elephantower on 2016-09-28.
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The Rigs Will Burn! Rigs have fallen by -1029 in just one year according to Baker Hughes as of August 7.There are only 884 rigs left alive. 1 more year of this, and all the rigs will have burned down. Shout Allahu Akbar as Iran delivers Coup de grâce. ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 16 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-08-19; known on 2016-09-28; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-09-28.
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Mo-Pac express lanes will not be open and accepting traffic before September 20th, 2016 ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2016-08-29; known on 2016-09-20; judged right by unexpectedEOF on 2016-09-26.
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I will move to Spain between April and September 2016. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-09-07; known on 2016-09-25; judged wrong by Idrinkitup on 2016-09-25.
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North American oil industry will collapse. Rig count will fall to zero. ( 7% confidence; 29 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-04; known on 2016-09-25; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-25.
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I go to Lalibela this summer ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2016-06-30; known on 2016-09-16; judged right by ioannes on 2016-09-24.
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I bet after 6 months of travelling, I will say I do not regret getting my new backpack, Kelty RedWing ( 80% confidence )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-10; known on 2016-09-10; judged right by Idrinkitup on 2016-09-20.
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I bet that Pete will end up going to Burning Man ( 50% confidence )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-11; known on 2016-09-16; judged wrong by Idrinkitup on 2016-09-20.
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The LDS Church will not withdraw from the BSA. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Makhura47 on 2015-07-28; known on 2015-12-15; judged right by Makhura47 on 2016-09-19.
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Google's refugee donation matching to hit ~$5m limit within the year ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Caleb Withers on 2015-09-17; known on 2016-09-17; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-17.
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I will travel to CHI '17 to present a paper I wrote. ( 45% confidence )
Created by trishume on 2016-04-07; known on 2017-05-16; judged wrong by trishume on 2016-09-16.
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I will achieve a new PB by October ( 90% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-10; known on 2015-10-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-09-16.
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I will get A*A*A* at A2 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2016-09-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2016-09-16.
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I will get A*A*A at A2 ( 20% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2016-09-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-09-16.
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I will get above 1, 1 in STEP ( 10% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2016-09-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-09-16.
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I will get 1, 1 in STEP ( 50% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2016-09-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-09-16.
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I will get 1, 2 in STEP ( 30% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2016-09-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2016-09-16.
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I will get into Cambridge ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2016-09-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2016-09-16.
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I will get into Cambridge for CompSci without Maths ( 10% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2016-09-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-09-16.
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JP and MG. ( 50% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2016-09-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-09-16.
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The 2016 Iowa GOP Caucus result does not get overturned/revised such that Trump takes first place. ( 92% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2016-02-05; known on 2016-09-16; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-16.
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I will have at least two more papers published before September 15, 2016 ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-07; known on 2016-09-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-09-15.
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I will have at least one more paper published before September 15, 2016 ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-07; known on 2016-09-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-09-15.
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email was about grade ( 20% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2016-09-11; known on 2016-09-11; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-09-11.
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The airport in Medellin will take my passport card ( 60% confidence )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2016-09-06; known on 2016-09-09; judged right by Idrinkitup on 2016-09-09.
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There will be at least one presidential debate in 2016 that both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump participate in ( 86% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-04; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-09.
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The new Berlin (Germany) airport will be operational until June 2016. ( 25% confidence )
Created by nyabhingi on 2014-05-12; known on 2016-06-30; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-09-08.
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Apple makes significant changes to display technology of future iPhone (i.e. OLED, extends to edge of phone, different glass, Tupac hologram capability) ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-25; known on 2016-06-16; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-09-08.
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Book 2 of Unsong will end with an interlude this week (September 7). ( 33% confidence )
Created by Sniffnoy on 2016-09-05; known on 2016-09-08; judged wrong by Sniffnoy on 2016-09-07.
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iPhone 7 has USBC ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2016-06-21; known on 2016-10-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-09-07.
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In Apple's iPhone announcement in 2016, at least one new iPhone will have a True Tone display ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-01; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-09-07.
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At least one flagship iPhone model announced in 2016 will have a 3.5mm headphone jack on the body of the phone ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-24; known on 2016-10-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-09-07.
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Next Apple iPhone (7, not SE) excludes 3.5mm headphone jack. ( 60% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-25; known on 2016-08-16; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-09-07.
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I get fired for being pro-boycott/sanction/divestment of Canada / Israel. ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-31; known on 2016-10-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-07.
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I will get 15 catches of five balls this year ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2016-08-08; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-09-07.
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I will go to Burning Man this year. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-01; known on 2016-09-10; judged wrong by Idrinkitup on 2016-09-06.
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Jeremy Corbyn will resign over Brexit and the current Labour coup. ( 10% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-27; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-09-05.
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2016 predictions: I will attend Burning Man. ( 82% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-09-05.
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2016 predictions: Sam will attend Burning Man. ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-09-05.
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Unsong: Sohu is the Comet King's daughter. ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-29; known on 2018-02-28; judged right by Sniffnoy on 2016-09-05.
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finish this water ( 100% confidence )
Created by booradleytron on 2016-09-01; known on 2016-09-02; judged right by booradleytron on 2016-09-04.