Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 100% | 0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 11 |
Displaying all predictions made by Samm. Filter by:
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HP MoR: any superintelligent or FOOMing AGI/AI will appear as a character/device in the story ( 11% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-28; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by tedks on 2015-05-01.
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The Labour party gain an absolute majority in the next British general election ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by a0c4a123f7 on 2013-11-13; known on 2015-05-09; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-05-08.
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The composite American from 2014-2024 will be more supportive of abortion restrictions than the composite American from 2003-2013. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Omid on 2013-10-21; known on 2025-01-01.
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The majority of people eligible for Obamacare won't be enrolled by April 13, 2014. ( 63% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by recondaddy on 2013-10-13; known on 2014-04-13; judged right by procran on 2014-05-18.
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Google will survive for five more years ( 97% confidence; 38 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-05-19; known on 2018-05-19; judged right by NancyLebovitz on 2018-05-19.
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Conditioned on his political affiliation being outed before the year 2024, Mark Zuckerberg will be outed as a Republican ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-09; known on 2024-01-01.
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Bitcoin was created by a group of programmers who called themselves “Satoshi Nakomoto” and were not employed by a state or a corporation for the express purpose of making Bitcoin ( 19% confidence; 19 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-05-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin. ( 8% confidence; 14 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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Paul Graham: Bitcoin may have been created by a government ( 6% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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The Boston Bomber will be tried in Civilian Courts ( 83% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bojidar Kojouharov on 2013-04-25; known on 2013-07-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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Titan has two semi-connected biospheres, one on the surface, and one under the ice crust. ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-04-23; known on 2113-04-23.
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Chris Christie will run in the Republican Primary for President of the United States in 2016 ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-04-22; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022 ( 34% confidence; 35 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-15; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by M on 2022-01-01.
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The Euro will not be dead by 2016 ( 94% confidence; 29 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by challquist on 2013-04-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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Mars rover SAM instrument discovers live microorganisms in Martian soil. ( 11% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-20; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Samm on 2013-04-26.