Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 43% | 58% | 70% | 82% | 89% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 14 | 45 | 37 | 45 | 85 | 14 | 240 |
Displaying all predictions made by davatk. Filter by:
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We will fairly convincingly know who Satoshi Nakamoto is in five years. ( 20% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JohnGreer on 2018-04-13; known on 2023-04-13; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-31.
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50% chance of AI by 2028 —Shane Legg ( 23% confidence; 29 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2028-01-01.
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Rothfuss's The Doors of Stone (bk3) will end with the recounting of Kvothe's life up to opening the inn, with no further adventures. ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-05; known on 2032-02-18.
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At least one large website (alexa 10k) or fortune-500 company's services will be disrupted by the Y38 problem ( 50% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-09-22; known on 2038-01-21.
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Israel will bomb Iran in the next year. (airstrike/icbm etc. launched directly by the IDF or another Israeli entity) ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Rigulel on 2021-08-02; known on 2022-08-02; judged wrong by Rigulel on 2022-08-03.
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A2 ( 93% confidence )
Created by davatk on 2021-07-31; known on 2021-07-31; judged unknown by davatk on 2021-07-31.
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Open AI will announce a new language model at least 100x bigger than GPT-3 (175Gb) in number of parameters before the end of 2022 ( 47% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by razcle on 2021-07-21; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2023-01-01.
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Trump wins a second term in office ( 48% confidence; 29 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-06-05; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by avi on 2020-11-07.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Pete Buttigieg ( 17% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davatk on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-09-06; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-09-08.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Elizabeth Warren ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-09-06; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Andrew Yang ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-09-06; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Beto O'Rourke ( 8% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-09-06; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Kirsten Gillibrand ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-09-06; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] John Hickenlooper ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-09-06; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Julian Castro ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-09-06; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Stacey Abrams ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-09-06; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-09-08.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Amy Klobuchar ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-09-06; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Tulsi Gabbard ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-09-06; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
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[Politics] A Democratic candidate other than Yang to propose UBI before the second debate ( 14% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-13; known on 2019-08-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-18.
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Politics, US – The US Federal government announces that the policy of separating migrant children from their parents as a routine practice is to be ended before the end of July 2018. ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-16; known on 2018-08-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-08-12.
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In the 2018 NBA Playoffs, Golden State will beat Cleveland. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by davatk on 2018-06-01; known on 2018-06-18; judged right by davatk on 2018-06-16.
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Us declares war on Iran by september 2020 ( 18% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tschescheier on 2018-05-12; known on 2020-09-01; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-09-05.
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[In the 2018 NBA Playoffs,] Cleveland will beat Boston. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by davatk on 2018-05-10; known on 2018-05-30; judged right by davatk on 2018-05-29.
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[In the 2018 NBA Playoffs,] Golden State will beat Houston. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by davatk on 2018-05-10; known on 2018-05-30; judged right by davatk on 2018-05-29.
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Donald Trump will renew the Iran deal on May 12. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-06; known on 2018-05-13; judged wrong by davatk on 2018-05-08.
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Over the next five years, the Boston Celtics will win more regular season games than the Philadelphia 76ers. ( 44% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davatk on 2018-05-06; known on 2023-05-01.
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Trump wins Nobel ( 10% confidence; 41 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2018-05-03; known on 2030-01-01.
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Joe Manchin will win his 2018 Senate race in West Virginia. ( 73% confidence )
Created by davatk on 2018-05-01; known on 2018-12-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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[In the 2018 NBA Playoffs, ] Golden State will beat New Orleans. ( 80% confidence )
Created by davatk on 2018-05-01; known on 2018-05-15; judged right by davatk on 2018-05-09.
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[In the 2018 NBA Playoffs, ] Houston will beat Utah. ( 85% confidence )
Created by davatk on 2018-05-01; known on 2018-05-15; judged right by davatk on 2018-05-09.
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[In the 2018 NBA Playoffs, ] Philadelphia will beat Boston. ( 72% confidence )
Created by davatk on 2018-05-01; known on 2018-05-15; judged wrong by davatk on 2018-05-10.
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[In the 2018 NBA Playoffs, ] Cleveland will beat Toronto. ( 65% confidence )
Created by davatk on 2018-05-01; known on 2018-05-15; judged right by davatk on 2018-05-08.
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Trump withdraws from the Iran nuclear deal before the end of 2018. ( 40% confidence )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-30; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by davatk on 2018-05-08.
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The Wizards will win game 6 against the Raptors. ( 58% confidence )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-26; known on 2018-04-28; judged wrong by davatk on 2018-04-28.
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Rationalist Community – Slate Star Codex gets mentioned in the New York Times (by someone other than Ross Douthat) between 1st of July and end of 2018 ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.
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EA – Machine Intelligence Research Institute raises more in a 2018 fundraiser than in its 2017 fundraiser ( 55% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-01-03.
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Technology – The price of a bitcoin is over $10,000 at the end of 2018. ( 26% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
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Politics, Middle East – Iran withdraws from the deal limiting its nuclear program before the end of 2018. ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.
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Politics, US – A department of the Federal government is eliminated before the end of 2018 ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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The referendum on the Irish 8th Amendment will pass. ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-25; known on 2018-05-26; judged right by davatk on 2018-05-26.
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Debbie Lesko wins the April 2018 special election for Arizona's 8th District ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-04-25; judged right by davatk on 2018-04-25.
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Another US senator or representative will resign or be removed from office due to allegations of sexual harassment or assault ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
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Serious impeachment proceedings begin against Trump ( 22% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
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Trump is president at years end ( 91% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
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The Wizards will beat the Raptors in game 5. ( 40% confidence )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-04-26; judged wrong by davatk on 2018-04-26.
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The WMATA Silver line will run to Dulles by the end of 2020. ( 40% confidence )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by davatk on 2021-01-01.
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Kawhi Leonard will be on the Spurs as of September 2019 ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-24; known on 2019-09-01; judged wrong by davatk on 2018-07-19.
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Republicans will win the house in 2018. ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-17; known on 2018-12-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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The Wizards will beat the Raptors. ( 25% confidence )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-17; known on 2018-05-10; judged wrong by davatk on 2018-04-28.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Joe Biden ( 32% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-17; known on 2020-09-16; judged right by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Cory Booker ( 7% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-17; known on 2020-09-16; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Hilary Clinton ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-17; known on 2020-09-16; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Kamala Harris ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-17; known on 2020-09-16; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Bernie Sanders ( 13% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-17; known on 2020-09-16; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
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Bitcoin will be <15k on January 1st 2019. ( 74% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-17; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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[For HQ2, Amazon will choose] Boston. ( 25% confidence )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-17; known on 2018-08-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-15.
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[For HQ2, Amazon will choose] the DC area. ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-17; known on 2018-08-16; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-15.
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[For HQ2, Amazon will choose] Denver/Boulder. ( 10% confidence )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-17; known on 2018-08-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-15.
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I think the Warriors will win the NBA Finals ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Scolyke on 2018-04-08; known on 2018-06-16; judged right by davatk on 2018-06-16.
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Macron will not be re-elected as French President. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by phistr on 2018-04-08; known on 2022-06-30; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2022-06-02.
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Within 6 months, a bombing campaign will start in Iran. ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2018-03-24; known on 2018-07-24; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.
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“Bitcoin will be the world’s ‘single currency’ in 10 years” ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2018-03-21; known on 2028-03-21; judged unknown by Bruno Parga on 2018-04-09.
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Brexit will successfully have take place by August 2019 ( 32% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Finma on 2018-03-03; known on 2019-01-08; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-02.
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PredictIt shows Bernie Sanders having highest chance to be Dem nominee at end of 2018. ( 35% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-02; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2019-01-02.
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The investigation run by Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller is still ongoing by the end of 2018 (and is still run by Mueller, e.g., Mueller has not died, or been removed, or formally concluded his investigation). ( 67% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Congress will not extend copyright durations in 2018. ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Temeraire on 2018-01-12; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Elizabeth Warren will run for President in 2020 ( 62% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2020-10-01; judged right by JTPeterson on 2019-04-10.
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Public demonstration of an AI that can learn the rules of, and play at a superhuman level, most board/card games without supervision, just watching many games and being told who won, in 2018 or 2019. ( 64% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2017-12-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-01-01.
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Apple will ship an iPhone with no ports before the end of 2020. ( 58% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jamesrom on 2017-11-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by davatk on 2021-01-01.
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>50% of the world population has to scan their eye(/iris) at least once per day ( 3% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-27; known on 2020-08-19; judged wrong by NickN on 2020-08-20.
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C still widely in use in the 2020s ( 93% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-16; known on 2029-12-31.
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25th amendment used to take Trump out before term is over https://twitter.com/ElliNude/status/918196663314874369 ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-12; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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Donald Trump ends the NSA by executive order & creates a program to ensure secure communications for everyone in the world ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-11; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Trump is being drugged by the deep state/some 3-letter-agency, and this becomes verifiable ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-15; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Donald Trump will not be impeached or resign in his first term ( 66% confidence; 33 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Bismagician on 2017-05-18; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by CaelumCodicem on 2019-12-19.
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I will complete my PhD within +-3 months of the scheduled time frame. ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Emmanuel M. Smith on 2017-05-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Emmanuel M. Smith on 2020-02-15.
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Uber will go bankrupt, dissolve, or merge with another company by the end of 2018 ( 17% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sdr on 2017-03-20; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death. ( 6% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2017-03-17; known on 2037-03-17; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-09-08.
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Trump will not be impeached ( 78% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2025-01-30; judged wrong by regex on 2019-12-19.
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Trump will win a second term ( 46% confidence; 74 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2020-11-08; judged wrong by regex on 2020-11-20.
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The 2020 presidential election will be Donald Trump v. Oprah Winfrey. ( 3% confidence; 25 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2017-01-16; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
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Mark Zuckerberg will run in the 2020 USA presidential elections. ( 9% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-14; known on 2019-08-16; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2019-08-16.
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In the next 5 years, Northern Ireland holds either an Irish reunification referendum, or an independence referendum. ( 12% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-06-27; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ( 55% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-06-27; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by davatk on 2021-01-16.
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Another EU country will decide to leave before 2020 ( 44% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-24; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Paul.David.Carr on 2020-01-01.
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Scotland will have another independence referendum and the result will be YES. ( 42% confidence; 16 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-03-23; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-02.
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Humanity still a thing in 2036 ( 89% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-13; known on 2036-12-31.
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WWIII starts before 2030. ( 8% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Dak on 2015-07-31; known on 2030-07-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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YouTube to allow searching videos by audio contained in the video by 2025 ( 66% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-27; known on 2026-01-16.
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Manually driving a car will be outlawed in the U.S. by 2035 ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-27; known on 2036-01-01; judged unknown by InquilineKea on 2015-08-04.
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“by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system” ( 5% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-26; known on 2031-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040. ( 86% confidence; 24 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-19; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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Number of web application developers to be higher in 2025 than 2015 ( 64% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-17; known on 2026-01-01.
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Samsung to be more valuable in 2025 than 2010 ( 65% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-16; known on 2026-01-01.
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Facebook to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015 ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by davatk on 2021-01-01.
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Google to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015 ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by davatk on 2021-01-01.
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PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020 ( 83% confidence; 40 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ( 54% confidence; 42 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by ZLM on 2014-02-10; known on 2025-01-01; judged unknown by lavalamp on 2014-08-21.
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90% chance of AI by 2050 —Shane Legg ( 47% confidence; 21 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2050-01-01.
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By 2020, MS's Bing will have 25% of the American search market (from 13% in 2010). ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.