Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
Displaying all predictions made by aaronsw. Filter by:
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Someone on Fox News or one of the headlines on their website will claim that Mitt Romney won the 2012-10-03 presidential debate. ( 83% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by aaronsw on 2012-10-03; known on 2012-10-04; judged right by aaronsw on 2012-10-04.
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App.net will try to find a way to get money from people who have pledged at join.app.net, even if they don't hit their $500K goal. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by aaronsw on 2012-08-09; known on 2012-08-20; judged right by aaronsw on 2012-08-12.
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Microsoft's stock will go down between July 18, 2012 and the first of a) when Mark Penn leaves the company or Microsoft announces he's leaving and b) one year later. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by aaronsw on 2012-07-19; known on 2013-07-18; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-20.