Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 100% | 50% | 40% | 100% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 3 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 25 |
Displaying all predictions made by blackRust. Filter by:
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The 2020 Olympics will not be cancelled ( 53% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by gurgus on 2020-02-26; known on 2020-07-24; judged right by gurgus on 2021-07-19.
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There will be no more juvenile seagulls around the garden by end of August ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by blackRust on 2016-07-24; known on 2016-07-25.
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There will be no more juvenile seagulls around the garden by end of August. ( 20% confidence )
Created by blackRust on 2016-08-02; known on 2016-08-31; judged wrong by blackRust on 2016-10-02.
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Trump will not lead Clinton in the RCP average by more than 5% at any point in the 2016 election. ( 85% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-08-01; known on 2016-12-16; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-09.
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Hillary Clinton beats Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election. ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by robirahman on 2016-07-30; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Russian boots on the ground in active combat operations in Lithuania ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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France holds 'leave EU' referendum ( 19% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2020-07-24; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2020-07-30.
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Le Pen elected president of france 2017 ( 28% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-07.
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There will be no more juvenile seagulls around the garden by end of October ( 95% confidence )
Created by blackRust on 2016-07-24; known on 2016-10-31; judged right by blackRust on 2016-11-01.
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There will be no more juvenile seagulls around the garden by end of September ( 50% confidence )
Created by blackRust on 2016-07-24; known on 2016-09-30; judged right by blackRust on 2016-10-02.
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Gary Johnson will poll above 15% in five national polls. ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-24; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Conditional on border checkpoints being set up along the UK-Ireland border, there will be an attack on the checkpoints or border guards ( 64% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-22; known on 2020-12-16.
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Theresa May triggers Article 50 without the explicit support of Sturgeon, the Scottish parliament, or a second referendum ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-22; known on 2018-01-16; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-31.
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Border checkpoints will be set up along the UK/Ireland land border by 2020 ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-22; known on 2020-12-16; judged wrong by blackRust on 2021-01-16.
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Conditioned on UK leaving the EU, Scotland will be in progress towards, or have achieved, the status of an independent state (or quasi-independent, e.g. with shared military) by the end of 2020. ( 55% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by blackRust on 2016-07-14; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by blackRust on 2021-01-16.
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Conditional on the UK Government seeking permission from Parliament to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, the vote will pass. ( 61% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by blackRust on 2016-07-14; known on 2017-05-14; judged right by splorridge on 2017-04-03.
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Conditional on the UK Government under Theresa May seeking to invoke Article 50 on the Lisbon Treaty, it will have to be passed through Parliament before being invoked. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by blackRust on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-12-16; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-12-31.
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Corbyn will be put on the Labour leadership ballot ( 93% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-13; known on 2016-08-13; judged right by splorridge on 2016-07-28.
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Government of United Kingdom has notified European Union of its intent to withdraw from Union as per article 50 para 2 of the Treaty on European Union. ( 70% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-07-13; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2017-03-29.
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Government of United Kingdom has notified European Union of its intent to withdraw from Union as per article 50 para 2 of the Treaty on European Union. ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-07-13; known on 2017-07-01; judged right by kuudes on 2017-03-29.
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Government of United Kingdom has notified European Union of its intent to withdraw from Union as per article 50 para 2 of the Treaty on European Union. ( 39% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-07-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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Government of United Kingdom has notified European Union of its intent to withdraw from Union as per article 50 para 2 of the Treaty on European Union. ( 28% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-07-13; known on 2016-10-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-10-01.
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Hillary Clinton will win the democratic nomination ( 88% confidence; 30 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sole21000 on 2016-03-09; known on 2016-07-26; judged right by grogo on 2016-07-26.