Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 41% | 59% | 59% | 80% | 89% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 22 | 29 | 39 | 50 | 119 | 26 | 285 |
Displaying all predictions made by Tuxedage. Filter by:
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A state will try & succeed in seceding from the US. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2020-01-01.
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A general-purpose artificial intelligence comparable to or better than a human will not have been developed by the beginning of 2020. ( 82% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Richard_Kennaway on 2010-08-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by MultiplyByZer0 on 2020-06-12.
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“Average Global Temperature for 2012 to be among five warmest years on record” —Intrade ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-15; known on 2013-01-02; judged right by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.
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“Regarding access to the Internet: “Here's a prediction: in five years, a UN convention will enshrine network access as a human right.”" —Cory Doctorow ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-04; known on 2014-05-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-05-31.
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“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant — a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid — anywhere in the world.” ( 38% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-12-31.
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“By 2018 the € will not be the legal currency of France, Italy and Germany.” ( 17% confidence; 14 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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“That by 2020 a wearable device will be available that will use voice recognition capability and high-volume storage to monitor and index conversations you have or conversations which occur in your vicinity for later searching as supplemental memory.” ( 85% confidence; 10 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01.
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United States will invade Australia and take over ( 10% confidence; 21 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by tjross on 2010-03-23; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time. ( 92% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Citizen553 on 2009-11-18; known on 2159-11-18; judged unknown by Jack on 2010-01-26.
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No military draft in the United States before 2020. ( 90% confidence; 33 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by komponisto on 2009-10-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older. ( 26% confidence; 25 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-17; known on 2070-12-31.
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Iran's current regime will be collapse within the next ten years. ( 29% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by kess3r on 2009-10-15; known on 2019-10-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-10-16.
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A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040. ( 68% confidence; 46 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by rwallace on 2009-10-14; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by freyley on 2009-10-21.