Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 40% | 59% | 54% | 72% | 76% | 82% | |
Sample Size | 40 | 39 | 24 | 39 | 41 | 22 | 205 |
Displaying all predictions made by Glenn. Filter by:
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Github will not censor libreboot corresponding source code off its service ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-21; known on 2023-01-01.
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The NDE out of body consciousness experiment by Dr Parnia will be entirely negative ( 70% confidence; 10 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Adam on 2008-09-22; known on 2013-04-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-11-14.
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Bitcoin >=$100 by July 1 —the-ace ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-04; known on 2011-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-30.
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'We are 100% certain that governments will start banning bitcoins in the next 12 to 18 months.' —Jason Calacanis ( 34% confidence; 18 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-16; known on 2012-11-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-15.
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I will spend most of Friday (20%t) on PBook ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Glenn on 2009-10-19; known on 2009-10-23; judged wrong by anonym on 2009-11-01.
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it is not possible to get url_for to not escape (url_encode) the parameter i.e. with “url_for(:action => 'foo', :bar => 'http://www.google.com')” , the :bar parameter. ( 35% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2009-06-30; known on 2009-06-30.
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There will not be a 2009 season of 'Make Me a Supermodel' ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-16; known on 2009-11-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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The world will not end when the LHC first collides 2 beams ( 99% confidence; 13 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-09; known on 2009-12-28; judged right by rwallace on 2009-12-28.
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Extremist confusionists will not be able to prevent LHC collisions – even given they now have until our Autumn next year ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-24; known on 2009-11-09; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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I will spend less than 80% of my time at work being purely meta or purely meta-meta (or any purely meta^n) ( 65% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2009-09-28; known on 2009-10-04; judged right by Glenn on 2009-10-05.
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I will end up working at RMH before the end of 2010 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Frank on 2009-09-25; known on 2011-01-16; judged wrong by Frank on 2010-09-16.
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Radiopaedia's visitor traffic will reach 100K/month before Sept 2010 ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Frank on 2009-09-25; known on 2010-11-16; judged right by Frank on 2010-09-16.
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Volume 2: iphone App will sell 1000 copies in the first month ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Frank on 2009-09-22; known on 2009-11-01; judged wrong by Frank on 2009-11-02.
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we will have finished the search filter implementation on Kando by Thursday ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by captainpete on 2009-09-21; known on 2009-09-24; judged wrong by captainpete on 2009-09-27.
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LW will go up (as a demo, not live) on AWS this week ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Matt on 2009-09-21; known on 2009-09-27; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-09-27.
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OB will go live on AWS this week ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Matt on 2009-09-21; known on 2009-09-27; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-09-27.
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Radiopaedia will go live on or before Wed next week (week beginning 21 Sep) ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Wes on 2009-09-14; known on 2009-09-24; judged wrong by Wes on 2009-09-24.
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I will be on Oktoberfest saturday ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Tom on 2009-09-21; known on 2009-09-26; judged wrong by Tom on 2009-09-28.
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Padding my 100% with almost nonsense predictions will be frowned upon by the less enlightened ( 79% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Glenn on 2009-09-15; known on 2009-09-21; judged right by Glenn on 2009-09-24.
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I have already made predictions in predictionbook ( 100% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2009-09-15; known on 2009-09-15; judged right by Glenn on 2009-09-15.
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My PB chart (http://bit.ly/nV7rV) will still look very embarrassing at the end of the week. ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Matt on 2009-09-15; known on 2009-09-21; judged right by Matt on 2009-09-21.
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I will have adapted to subconsiously use caps lock instead of backspace (or ctrl-h) by this time next week ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2009-09-14; known on 2009-09-20; judged right by Glenn on 2009-09-15.
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I will have tests running against aws by the end of today. ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jon on 2009-09-14; known on 2009-09-14; judged right by jon on 2009-09-15.
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I will have written and submitted my Trike profile ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by captainpete on 2009-09-14; known on 2009-09-21; judged right by Matt on 2009-09-21.
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We will have another Plandeliver client (verbal agreement) by the end of the week ( 40% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tom on 2009-09-14; known on 2009-09-21; judged wrong by Tom on 2009-09-21.
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Editing an order in plandeliver will be live at the end of today ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tom on 2009-09-14; known on 2009-09-14; judged right by Tom on 2009-09-15.
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I will learn touch typing and start using it in half of my typing ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by tansel on 2009-09-09; known on 2009-09-23; judged right by Glenn on 2009-09-24.
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we'll have implemented free-text searching by selectable filters (new approach) ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by captainpete on 2009-09-07; known on 2009-09-14; judged wrong by captainpete on 2009-09-14.
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At least one of our apps will be running on the full AWS stack (ELB, EC2 app, EC2 db, EBS) by Sunday ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Matt on 2009-09-07; known on 2009-09-13; judged wrong by Glenn on 2009-09-14.
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I will have a new iPhone 3GS in hand ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Matt on 2009-09-07; known on 2009-09-13; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-09-12.
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I will work Friday ( 50% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2009-09-07; known on 2009-09-11; judged right by Glenn on 2009-09-11.
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We will start working on the MyOB integration at Kando ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tom on 2009-09-07; known on 2009-09-14; judged wrong by Tom on 2009-09-14.
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Kando will be live first of december ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Tom on 2009-09-07; known on 2009-12-01; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-12-01.
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I will have closed all the currently open podshifter tickets relating to broken feeds ( 57% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2009-08-31; known on 2009-09-06; judged wrong by Glenn on 2009-09-07.
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Round 2 of the Radiopaedia redesign integration will be completed ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Wes on 2009-08-31; known on 2009-09-07; judged wrong by Wes on 2009-09-07.
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we'll have finished refactoring variants into products ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by captainpete on 2009-08-31; known on 2009-09-07; judged right by captainpete on 2009-09-07.
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we'll be experimenting with meat-spaced project management system ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by captainpete on 2009-08-31; known on 2009-09-07; judged wrong by captainpete on 2009-09-07.
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Config (short for configuration) will appear in the Merriam Webster dictionary as proper word ( 30% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by scott.arbeitman on 2009-06-24; known on 2014-06-24; judged wrong by Glenn on 2014-06-24.
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▀█▀ █▬█ █ ▄▄█▀▀ ( 50% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2009-05-13; known on 2009-05-13.
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this will email me at 15:10 and will link to pbook.dev.trike.com.au ( 69% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2009-05-13; known on 2009-05-13; judged right by Glenn on 2009-05-13.
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these two machines are the same deployment ( 85% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2009-05-12; known on 2009-05-12; judged right by Glenn on 2009-05-12.
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glenn will find this prediction today and tell me if there is any way to search all predictions ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Lina on 2009-05-12; known on 2009-05-13; judged right by Lina on 2009-05-12.
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prediction book will go live at predictionbook.com today ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Lina on 2009-05-12; known on 2009-05-13; judged wrong by Glenn on 2009-05-13.
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The statistical plot of sitewide predictions will approach a horizontal line, 50% accuracy, as the usage base increases ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2008-08-01; known on 2009-11-11; judged wrong by Matt on 2010-01-03.
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Creating a prediction in IE7 on XP VM will work ( 85% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2009-05-11; known on 2009-05-11; judged right by Glenn on 2009-05-11.
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I will be in england before podshifter gets restyled. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam on 2009-02-19; known on 2009-04-19; judged right by Matt on 2009-04-30.
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Google will buy Twitter by 2010 ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Glenn on 2008-07-16; known on 2010-01-01; judged wrong by thephilosiraptor on 2010-01-01.
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the aws-s3 refactor of podshifter will successfully upload the converted mp3 to s3 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam on 2008-11-12; known on 2008-11-12; judged right by Adam on 2008-11-12.
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Implement conditional get/caching of processed feed in pod shifter by 12pm thursday ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam on 2008-11-05; known on 2008-11-06; judged wrong by Glenn on 2008-11-06.
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Removing GA, readding Prototype. Preview will work. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Glenn on 2008-10-23; known on 2008-10-24; judged right by Glenn on 2008-10-24.
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removing prototype.js will make preview work on dentalcorp ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2008-10-23; known on 2008-10-23; judged right by Glenn on 2008-10-23.
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I pushed ( 100% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-10-06; known on 2008-10-06; judged right by Glenn on 2008-10-06.
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rails partial name scheme for namespaced models will be views/namespace/classname/_classname ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Adam on 2008-09-26; known on 2008-09-26; judged right by Adam on 2008-09-29.
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the proposed 24 week abortions legislation will pass unchanged through government ( 60% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-24; known on 2008-11-24; judged right by Glenn on 2008-10-14.
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Despite his best efforts, Matt will not still be alive ( 96% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-24; known on 2108-09-24; judged unknown by Glenn on 2008-09-26.
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“Notify me when someone responds” will be working again by the end of this week ( 95% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-24; known on 2008-09-26; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-27.
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notification of comments and wagers will inform me ( 84% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Adam on 2008-09-22; known on 2008-09-22; judged right by Adam on 2008-09-22.
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“less words” can be considered correct grammar ( 55% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-22; known on 2008-09-22; judged wrong by Glenn on 2008-09-22.
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The lyrics to electric feel are “spin me like an electric drill” not “shock me like an electric eel” ( 60% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-22; known on 2008-09-22; judged wrong by Glenn on 2008-09-22.
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The overall microsoft ad campaign will improve the Vista perception ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Lina on 2008-09-20; known on 2009-03-20; judged wrong by crlosg2 on 2009-06-01.
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private predictions will be secret ( 91% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Adam on 2008-09-19; known on 2008-09-19; judged right by Adam on 2008-09-19.
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User publish default settings will work ( 79% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-18; known on 2008-09-18; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-18.
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UnPublished predictions will show in user pages ( 86% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-18; known on 2008-09-18; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-18.
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UnPublished predictions won't show in any happenstance ( 89% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-18; known on 2008-09-18; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-18.
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Published predictions will be published ( 85% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-18; known on 2008-09-18; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-18.
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This deploy will work ( 85% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-18; known on 2008-09-18; judged wrong by Glenn on 2008-09-18.
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Buying index funds today (S&P at 4552) would be a good investment ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by AndyAlterEgo on 2008-09-18; known on 2009-03-18; judged wrong by AndyAlterEgo on 2009-03-18.
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our changes worked ( 95% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-17; known on 2008-09-17; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-17.
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people find it more difficult to cope with the loss of a hand than the loss of a foot ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2008-08-04; known on 2008-08-04.
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Wagerable is a word ( 95% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-17; known on 2008-09-17; judged wrong by Glenn on 2008-09-17.
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IngDirect will be back up by tomorrow ( 68% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-16; known on 2008-09-17; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-17.
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Without participating in a clinical trial, there is no legally available 'fire-and-forget' male contraceptive (pill, patch, injection etc.) ( 85% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-16; known on 2008-10-16; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-24.
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Next time I get breath tested, I'm going to ask to see my reading. The police person won't like it. ( 73% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-16; known on 2010-09-16; judged right by Glenn on 2008-10-06.
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Adam, Gerrit and Matt didn't know that you can remove a processor from the Mac Pro and save over $700 ( 65% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-16; known on 2008-09-17; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-17.
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I won't have to read the manual to set up the monitor ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-16; known on 2008-09-16; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-16.
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This will not email me if i say yes then say no ( 90% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-09; known on 2008-09-09; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-09.
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The world will not end when the first LHC beam is injected on 10th September ( 100% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-09; known on 2008-09-10; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-11.
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Despite Federal takeover, ‘Fannie Mae’ and ‘Freddie Mac' will become insolvent, and ultimately bankrupt ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-08; known on 2009-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Emailing me will /not/ reproduce the nillify blank bug ( 90% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-08; known on 2008-09-08; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-08.
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This will email me within 10 minutes ( 85% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-08; known on 2008-09-08; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-08.
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I will be able to reproduce the nillify blank bug ( 45% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-08; known on 2008-09-08; judged wrong by Glenn on 2008-09-08.
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This prediction will post ( 100% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-06; known on 2008-09-06; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-06.
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Unchecked response won't want to send me an email ( 95% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-06; known on 2008-09-06; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-06.
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Unchecked won't want to send me an email ( 90% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-06; known on 2008-09-06; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-06.
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Anonymous users will take Gerrit more than 4 hours ( 72% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-05; known on 2008-09-19; judged right by Glenn on 2009-09-28.
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Anonymous users will take Gerrit more than 8 hours ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-05; known on 2008-09-19; judged right by Glenn on 2009-09-28.
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Saying no now, and yes later to an email will work ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-05; known on 2008-09-05; judged wrong by Glenn on 2008-09-05.
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The circles drawn by the google scatter plot are not quite accurate. the 48% points are above the 50 line ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Adam on 2008-09-04; known on 2008-09-05; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-05.
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This will redirect me back to recent instead of the old table view ( 95% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-04; known on 2008-09-04; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-04.
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There will be no traffic mishaps on the Westgate between 9:30 and 10am tomorrow morning ( 70% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-04; known on 2008-09-04; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-05.
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There will be no traffic mishaps on the journey home ( 80% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-04; known on 2008-09-04; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-05.
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John Farnham will have another come back tour in Australia within 2 years. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Miyo on 2008-08-27; known on 2010-08-27; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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dave & michelle will be pregnant with in one year of being married. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Miyo on 2008-08-26; known on 2009-08-26; judged wrong by Miyo on 2009-08-26.
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Skinny jeans will last for no more than 18 months ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Lina on 2008-08-26; known on 2010-02-26; judged wrong by cointelligence on 2010-02-28.
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Apophis will not hit earth ( 97% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Gerrit on 2008-08-25; known on 2029-05-16; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Billabong shares will climb from $11.30 to over $13.50 within 6 months ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Andy on 2008-08-23; known on 2009-02-23; judged right by Andy on 2008-10-06.
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this will be the most popular prediction EVER ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2008-08-02; known on 3008-08-02; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-05-17.
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there will be stupid kneejerk legislation in response to the child dying on his bmx at the skatepark ( 70% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-07-18; known on 2008-07-13; judged wrong on 2008-08-18.
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the 2010 bug will strike again before it is fixed ( 85% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-07-16; known on 2018-07-16; judged right on 2008-08-18.
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typing 100 years from now as a result date will no longer crash the server ( 85% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-07-16; known on 2008-07-20; judged right on 2008-08-18.