Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Warriors beat the Rockets ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-20; known on 2015-06-10; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-28.
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Cavs beat the Hawks ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-20; known on 2015-06-10; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-27.
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Couple of months after Blackrock Mountain release, Hearthstone meta will not be extremely biased towards aggro decks. Added: meaning “noticably less aggro than GvG meta” ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by timujin on 2015-03-26; known on 2015-06-01; judged right by VoidChronos on 2015-05-26.
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AHA Sam missed his flight. ( 70% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-05-26; known on 2015-05-29; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-05-26.
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The price of APEX will rise by midnight. ( 70% confidence )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-05-22; known on 2015-05-23; judged right by jesselevine on 2015-05-25.
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See NB in da house 2 after one round of updating ( 59% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-25; known on 2015-05-25; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-25.
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See NB in da house 2 ( 47% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-25; known on 2015-05-25; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-25.
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Conditional on me feeling I have sufficient information to make a basic judgement, he had a dislocate in his hand ( 20% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-23; known on 2015-05-29; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-24.
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I will play at least one game of chess with R.B.S. before we leave for New Haven. ( 55% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-22; known on 2015-06-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-23.
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I have a confirmed fractured bone in my hand/wrist by or on 24/05 ( 25% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-05-19; known on 2015-05-25; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-05-23.
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Either Chelsea, Man U, Man City or Arsenal will win the premier league ( 60% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-06; known on 2015-06-16; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-23.
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Either Chelsea, Man U or Man City n will win the premier league ( 50% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-06; known on 2015-06-16; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-23.
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Either Chelsea, Man U, Man City, Arsenal or Liverpool will win the premier league ( 80% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-06; known on 2015-06-16; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-23.
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Either Chelsea, Man U, Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Tottenham or Southhampton will win the premier league ( 90% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-06; known on 2015-06-16; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-23.
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At least one of Leicester City, Burnley and Queens Park Rangers will be relegated. ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-06; known on 2015-06-16; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-23.
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The girl was the girl who I met in Kurt's kitchen that time ( 30% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-20; known on 2015-05-23; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-05-23.
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I will make a 100 predictions here by the end of May. i.e., around 4 per day. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Pradeep_Kumar on 2015-05-06; known on 2015-05-31; judged right by Pradeep_Kumar on 2015-05-23.
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CSK makes it to the IPL final. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Pradeep_Kumar on 2015-05-16; known on 2015-05-28; judged right by Pradeep_Kumar on 2015-05-23.
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He's getting that phone call about the thing think he is ( 83% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-22; known on 2015-05-23; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-22.
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I will get the number of the next person I approach ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-26; known on 2015-05-03; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-22.
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HP MoR: the troll attack in ch88-89 was executed by Lucius Malfoy ( 11% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Petruchio on 2013-07-11; known on 2015-06-30; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-21.
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HPMOR – Hat & Cloak is Snape ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-08; known on 2015-06-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-21.
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Channel Tunnel is longer than the circumference of the Large Hadron Collider. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by orthonormal on 2015-05-16; known on 2015-05-17; judged right by orthonormal on 2015-05-21.
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The frequency of my urination will be back to normal in a month's time ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-22; known on 2015-05-16; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-05-20.
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There will be a question on Gödel's first incompleteness theorem ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-06; known on 2015-05-20; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-05-20.
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My achilles will be better (able to run) within 7 more weeks. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-06; known on 2015-05-25; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-18.
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Clippers beat the Rockets ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-04; known on 2015-05-18; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-18.
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Bulls beat the Cavs ( 55% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-04; known on 2015-05-18; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-18.
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Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-08-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-17.
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Ginny Weasley and the Sealed Intelligence finished by end of May San Francisco time ( 46% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-06-01; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-17.
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Conditional on my replacing my phone in the next six months, it will be an iPhone. ( 10% confidence )
Created by Calien on 2014-11-17; known on 2015-05-17; judged wrong by Calien on 2015-05-17.
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CSK will be in the top two of the IPL league table. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Pradeep_Kumar on 2015-05-11; known on 2015-05-20; judged right by Pradeep_Kumar on 2015-05-16.
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Warriors beat the Grizzlies ( 84% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-03; known on 2015-05-17; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-16.
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HP MoR: At some point, Harry will obtain the Resurrection Stone and the Elder Wand (in addition to his Cloak) to become Master of Death. ( 36% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jordan_Hoyt on 2013-07-09; known on 2015-07-01; judged right by rictic on 2015-05-16.
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HP MOR: Dumbledore is Hat and Cloak ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2013-06-30; known on 2015-06-30; judged wrong by rictic on 2015-05-16.
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Hawks beat the Wizards ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-03; known on 2015-05-17; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-16.
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Israel does not get in a large-scale war (ie >100 Israeli deaths) with any Arab state. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-16.
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Brazil, 2014: The federal government will announce that an official, mandatory rationing of electricity use will be imposed on a system-wide basis. ( 25% confidence )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2014-02-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-16.
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Lubos will not respond to Scott Aaronson's recent article or blog post before May 2nd. ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-25; known on 2015-05-02; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-16.
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The two sections of the exam I have revised for will both come up. ( 70% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-13; known on 2015-05-15; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-15.
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The Rust programming language will reach version 1.0.0 by April 4, 2015 (the first six-week cycle after the scheduled beta1). ( 67% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Rory O’Kane on 2015-01-13; known on 2015-04-04; judged wrong by Rory O’Kane on 2015-05-15.
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See CC in there by 14:05 ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-14; known on 2015-05-14; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-05-14.
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See CC in there by 14:05 ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-14; known on 2015-05-14; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-05-14.
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That female vocalist on Ab Soul – Double Standards is Anna Wise ( 35% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-03; known on 2015-05-03; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-14.
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See CC in there by 14:05 ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-14; known on 2015-05-14; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-05-14.
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Real Madrid will advance to the finals of the 2015 Champions League ( 90% confidence )
Created by Andrew MacFie on 2015-04-24; known on 2015-05-13; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2015-05-13.
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Real Madrid will win the 2015 Champions League ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Andrew MacFie on 2015-04-24; known on 2015-06-06; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-05-13.
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Every bonus question on the exam will have at least one student get it right. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-05-12; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-13.
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No student will get all the bonus questions on the exam. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-05-14; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-13.
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Of my 140 students, at least 5 students will score above 90% on their Calc I final. ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-04; known on 2015-05-14; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-13.