Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 70% | 68% | 73% | 94% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 10 | 30 | 25 | 15 | 18 | 0 | 98 |
Displaying all predictions made by finback. Filter by:
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Kamala Harris to be US President by the end of 2021. ( 6% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-11-08; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-01-02.
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Politics, US, California – Proposition 22 passes. ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-10-11; known on 2020-11-05; judged right by finback on 2020-11-06.
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[Trump ] dies ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by technillogue on 2020-10-02; known on 2020-11-06; judged wrong by finback on 2020-11-06.
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Critical failure of the Three Gorges Dam by 2030 ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jamesrom on 2020-09-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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Stripe has an IPO before 3/1/22 ( 67% confidence )
Created by finback on 2020-09-24; known on 2022-03-01; judged wrong by finback on 2022-03-02.
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erowid.org still exists with its full archive available to the public, on May 1 2024 ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by finback on 2020-09-18; known on 2024-05-01.
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twitter will not have the ability to view “latest tweets” (chronological timeline) from the web app on june 1 2022 ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by finback on 2020-09-09; known on 2022-06-02; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-06-03.
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starlink has a public beta available before december 15 2020 ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by finback on 2020-08-31; known on 2020-12-15; judged right by finback on 2020-12-15.
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SpaceX Crew-1 will dock with the ISS before November 1 2020 ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by finback on 2020-08-28; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2020-11-01.
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The US Census Bureau will find that San Francisco has a population of over 860,000 ( 95% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by finback on 2020-08-27; known on 2021-03-31; judged right by finback on 2021-10-29.
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California earthquake before 2021 causing 10 or more deaths ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-08-25; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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The IUCN will report >=9000 critically endangered species as of march 1 2025 (currently ~6800) ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by finback on 2020-08-21; known on 2025-03-01.
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>1000 sq. mi of currently-Canadian land is under US sovereignty as of july 4 2028 ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by finback on 2020-08-21; known on 2028-07-04.
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a new world record in the men's 5000 meters will be set between now and 2025-08-01: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5000_metres_world_record_progression ( 33% confidence )
Created by finback on 2020-08-20; known on 2025-08-01.
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[The LNU lightning complex fire will be] >100k acres affected by Sunday 9am ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by finback on 2020-08-19; known on 2020-08-23; judged right by finback on 2020-08-20.
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[The LNU lightning complex fire will be] >=50k acres affected by Sunday 9AM ( 93% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by finback on 2020-08-19; known on 2020-08-23; judged right by finback on 2020-08-20.
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[The LNU lightning complex fire will be] >=15% contained by Sunday 9AM Pacific ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by finback on 2020-08-19; known on 2020-08-23; judged right by finback on 2020-08-23.
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firefox will add back built-in support for RSS feeds by 2025 ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by finback on 2020-08-14; known on 2025-01-01.
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Triplebyte will no longer exist as a company on August 20 2021, and if sold will have sold for less than $48.1M. ( 23% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by enolan on 2020-03-21; known on 2021-08-20; judged wrong by enolan on 2021-08-21.
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The “Steamboat Willie” cartoon featuring Mickey Mouse will enter the public domain in 2023 or earlier ( 32% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2016-09-12; known on 2024-01-02.
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The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01 ( 82% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-11; known on 2025-07-01.