Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 67% | 33% | 0% | 77% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 13 | 1 | 25 |
Displaying all predictions made by wizzwizz4. Filter by:
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There will not be a pandemic by Christmas 2021 (in at least half of all countries on a political map, according to their governments) ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by wizzwizz4 on 2021-01-11; known on 2021-12-27; judged wrong by kallman on 2022-01-01.
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Between 2020 and end of 2022, no non-Apple laptop will be released which performs better on general performance benchmarks than the lowest-priced laptop currently offered by Apple. ( 46% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by topherhunt on 2020-12-12; known on 2022-12-31.
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North Korea will be invaded in 2022 under citations of human rights and threats of nuclear war ( 2% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by limbo on 2020-09-02; known on 2022-08-13; judged wrong by limbo on 2022-08-13.
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I will make at least 30 predictions in september ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by grin on 2020-09-02; known on 2020-10-01; judged wrong by grin on 2020-10-01.
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https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/2006-08-13 is hilarious ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by wizzwizz4 on 2020-08-10; known on 2026-08-13.
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World War III ( 42% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jasonau12345 on 2020-07-30; known on 2100-01-01.
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In the future, a woman will be on the agenda with great scientific research, and this case will affect female software developers in a good way. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by smodnix on 2020-07-11; known on 2023-01-20.
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COVID, UK – Daily deaths exceed 300 on a day in July. ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-07-05; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2020-08-01.
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A COVID vaccine will be widely available in the USA by the end of January 2021 where widely available is defined as given to more than 10,000 people not as part of a clinical trial. ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by krazemon on 2020-06-28; known on 2021-02-01; judged right by Deepak on 2021-02-03.
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At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site ( 78% confidence; 13 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-06-24; known on 2021-01-02; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.
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At least 50% of code on github will be generated by language models or their successors on January 1 2030. ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by amrav on 2020-06-13; known on 2030-01-01.
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COVID, UK – For at least one day in June, daily deaths exceed 400. ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-06; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2020-07-02.
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It'll all be over by Christmas (in at least half of all countries on a political map, according to their governments) ( 30% confidence )
Created by wizzwizz4 on 2020-05-27; known on 2020-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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A simulated human mind with super intelligence will not happen before 2034 ( 92% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-05-25; known on 2034-01-01.
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Global yearly malaria death toll <40 000 by 2030. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by wizzwizz4 on 2020-05-05; known on 2030-12-31.
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Nicotine will be found to help fight coronavirus ( 2% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by evand on 2020-04-26; known on 2021-04-26; judged wrong by evand on 2021-04-26.
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Politics, UK – More than 50% of the UK's schools are open on the 1st of June 2020 ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-04-25; known on 2020-06-02; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
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A hole will be drilled down to Earth's mantle by 2090. ( 39% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-29; known on 2090-01-01.
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Donald Trump will NOT be re-elected ( 55% confidence; 26 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by tcsmithbiz@yahoo.com on 2019-12-23; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2020-11-07.
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The helical engine works ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by wizzwizz4 on 2019-10-15; known on 2025-01-16.
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I am not going to die as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change. ( 99% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-08-29; known on 3000-01-01.
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Person sitting next to me will still be staring at phone in half an hour. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by wizzwizz4 on 2019-08-26; known on 2019-08-26; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2019-08-26.
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The Collatz Conjecture will not be proven/disproven this year ( 99% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-08-03; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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There will be a new iPhone in 2019 that uses a USB-C connector instead of Lightning ( 19% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jamesrom on 2019-06-11; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2019-11-01.
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World will eliminate malaria by 2030. ( 69% confidence; 13 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-14; known on 2030-12-25.
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Mouse, rat, rabbit, or other small mammal successfully revived from cryopreservation before 2100 ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-24; known on 2100-01-01.
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Mouse, rat, rabbit, or other small mammal successfully revived from cryopreservation before 2050 ( 29% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-17; known on 2050-01-01.
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No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2100. ( 70% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-05; known on 2100-01-01.
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We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040 ( 52% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-04; known on 2041-01-01.
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“by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system” ( 5% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-26; known on 2031-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040. ( 86% confidence; 24 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-19; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020 ( 83% confidence; 40 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030. ( 16% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PatrickAchtelik on 2010-11-24; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by muflax on 2010-12-12.