Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
-
The next wave of internet bubbles will be based around services that harvest, collate and compute “Human meta data”. Most of which will come from Smart phone and Social Networking data plus real time obscure meta data will come from human input. ( 90% confidence; 7 comments )
Created by senectus on 2011-11-04; known on 2012-11-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2012-12-26.
-
The EU will essentially break up into groups of countries with different worldviews within the next 3 years. Prediction date 2nd November, 2011. ( 10% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Fledi on 2011-11-02; known on 2014-11-02; judged wrong by mad on 2014-11-02.
-
The EU will essentially break up into groups of countries with different worldviews within the next 3 years. Prediction date 2nd November, 2011. ( 10% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Fledi on 2011-11-02; known on 2014-11-02; judged wrong by mad on 2014-11-02.
-
Holographic television will be widely available by 2021. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-02; known on 2021-11-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-11-01.
-
Holographic television will be widely available by 2021. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-02; known on 2021-11-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-11-01.
-
Gold will be $2000 by Jan 2012 ( 45% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by eduffy on 2011-11-03; known on 2012-01-16; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-16.
-
Barack Obama will win the 2012 U.S. presidential election. ( 67% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-02; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.
-
President Barak Obama will be re-elected, the Democrats will retain the Senate, and retake the House of Representatives. This will not prevent a great deal of obstructionism to anything he wants to get passed, particularly in the Senate. ( 30% confidence; 18 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by MuscleCBT on 2011-11-02; known on 2012-11-11; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.
-
BMNDR will nontrivially improve my study habits by October 31st. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Codyz on 2011-10-12; known on 2011-10-31; judged wrong by Codyz on 2011-11-04.
-
By December 2011 at least one of Ireland, Portugal, Spain, or Italy will leave the Euro —Capitol Commentary ( 19% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-01.
-
By December 2011 at least one of Ireland, Portugal, Spain, or Italy will leave the Euro —Capitol Commentary ( 19% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-01.
-
I will write a detailed blog post. ( 30% confidence )
Created by divad12 on 2011-10-21; known on 2011-11-21; judged right by divad12 on 2011-11-03.
-
A 1MW cold-fusion reactor will NOT be demonstrated in October this year. ( 93% confidence; 18 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by scav on 2011-07-28; known on 2011-10-31; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-11-03.
-
A 1MW cold-fusion reactor will NOT be demonstrated in October this year. ( 93% confidence; 18 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by scav on 2011-07-28; known on 2011-10-31; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-11-03.
-
Occupy Wall Street (NYC) will continue at least 30 more days. ( 79% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by torekp on 2011-10-23; known on 2011-11-23; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-23.
-
CERN Faster than light neutrinos will be confirmed. and there will be new unified theories expanding Einstein's general relativity theory with a limit on some other measure rather than speed of light. ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by anandjeyahar on 2011-10-09; known on 2026-10-09; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-08-31.
-
CERN Faster than light neutrinos will be confirmed. and there will be new unified theories expanding Einstein's general relativity theory with a limit on some other measure rather than speed of light. ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by anandjeyahar on 2011-10-09; known on 2026-10-09; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-08-31.
-
There will be strong indications of extrasolar life by 2016. ( 19% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2016-01-01.
-
There will be strong indications of extrasolar life by 2016. ( 19% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2016-01-01.
-
Occupy Wall Street (NYC) will continue at least 30 more days. ( 79% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by torekp on 2011-10-23; known on 2011-11-23; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-23.
-
In about a year this website will have more then 20 active participants per week. ( 27% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-10-31; known on 2011-10-31; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-02.
-
The world will exist on 2012-12-22 (day after the widely hyped end) ( 99% confidence; 43 wagers; 21 comments )
Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-22; judged right by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
-
The world will exist on 2012-12-22 (day after the widely hyped end) ( 99% confidence; 43 wagers; 21 comments )
Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-22; judged right by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
-
The Doctor (from Doctor Who) will exceed the usual regeneration limit via genetic looms, like the Other is rumored to have done. ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2011-09-19; known on 2013-10-16; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2013-12-26.
-
The Doctor (from Doctor Who) will exceed the usual regeneration limit via genetic looms, like the Other is rumored to have done. ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2011-09-19; known on 2013-10-16; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2013-12-26.
-
GJP: #1029 Will any of the 20 jailed Bahraini medical workers be released by 1 November 2011? ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-11-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-02.
-
GJP: #1020 Will peace talks between Israel and Palestine formally resume at some point between 3 October 2011 and 1 November 2011? ( 25% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-11-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-02.
-
The judge will rule that Julian Assange be extradited to Sweden after hearings in July. ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-07; known on 2011-10-01; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-11-02.
-
The judge will rule that Julian Assange be extradited to Sweden after hearings in July. ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-07; known on 2011-10-01; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-11-02.
-
The Irish Central Bank has forecast that the Irish economy will contract by almost 7% this year. It predicts that the downturn in activity is set to continue next year with a further contraction of 3%. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2011-11-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-01.
-
GJP: #1031 Will the U.S. Congress pass a joint resolution of disapproval in October 2011 concerning the proposed $5+ billion F-16 fleet upgrade deal with Taiwan? ( 30% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-11-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-01.
-
GJP: #1030 Will the UN Security Council pass a measure/resolution concerning Syria in October 2011? ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-11-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-01.
-
I will have completed my Introduction to Java Anki Deck and will have uploaded it by the end of this week. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-31; known on 2011-11-05; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-01.
-
Anderson Cooper will come out on his daytime talk show. ( 23% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Øx on 2011-08-29; known on 2011-11-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-01.
-
The webcomic Angels 2200 will have a new full page update before the end of October. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by beo_shaffer on 2011-10-08; known on 2011-11-01; judged wrong by beo_shaffer on 2011-11-01.
-
I will finish updating http://os499.github.com/ such that I can start sharing it publicly. ( 60% confidence )
Created by divad12 on 2011-10-21; known on 2011-10-31; judged wrong by divad12 on 2011-11-01.
-
I will write a blog post on Khan Academy's new proficiency model that I just shipped by the end of this weekend. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by divad12 on 2011-10-27; known on 2011-10-31; judged wrong by divad12 on 2011-11-01.
-
Vettel to win f1 championship ( 97% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Laurablack on 2011-09-26; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-30.
-
The world will exist on 2012-12-22 (day after the widely hyped end) ( 99% confidence; 43 wagers; 21 comments )
Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-22; judged right by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
-
There will be a consensus among physicists that the Large Hadron Collider has provided experimental verification for the existence of the Higgs Boson by the end of October 2011. ( 36% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jack on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-10-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-31.
-
The world will exist on 2012-12-22 (day after the widely hyped end) ( 99% confidence; 43 wagers; 21 comments )
Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-22; judged right by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
-
“Normal service on the Maui Pipeline to resume on 28 October 2011” -ipredict ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-26; known on 2011-10-29; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-31.
-
A 1MW cold-fusion reactor will NOT be demonstrated in October this year. ( 93% confidence; 18 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by scav on 2011-07-28; known on 2011-10-31; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-11-03.
-
My average weight (measured once everyday) for this week will be at least one pound greater than my average weight for next week. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-21; known on 2011-10-29; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-29.
-
The St Louis Cardinals will win the World Series ( 47% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Codyz on 2011-10-11; known on 2011-10-31; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-29.
-
I will have all latework caught-up by Friday ( 40% confidence )
Created by Jach on 2011-10-23; known on 2011-10-28; judged wrong by Jach on 2011-10-29.
-
Nothing ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by arj on 2011-10-25; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by fergus on 2011-10-28.
-
iqtest.dk will give me a higher score when I don't answer any questions ( 8% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-27; known on 2011-10-27; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-27.
-
Erik and I will watch the original version of The Thing today. ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-26; known on 2011-10-27; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-27.
-
The discussion post http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/842/the_sciencearchist_manifesto/'s comment section will contain a flame war started by someone other than myself by the end of this Friday ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by beo_shaffer on 2011-10-19; known on 2011-10-21; judged wrong by beo_shaffer on 2011-10-27.