Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 40% | 51% | 50% | 59% | 92% | 75% | |
Sample Size | 5 | 37 | 20 | 17 | 24 | 4 | 107 |
Displaying all predictions made by atroche. Filter by:
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Brayden receives a job offer from a company in the Bay Area that will sponsor a visa, either during or following his trip that ends June 3rd 2014 ( 78% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by dusk on 2014-04-30; known on 2014-06-30; judged right by dusk on 2014-06-30.
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There are unique 50 wagers on this prediction by April 1st, 2014. ( 69% confidence; 62 wagers; 71 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-04-02; judged right by rickyrich98 on 2014-04-02.
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I will have 2000 Anki cards within 6 months in my collections (it's only 12 a day) ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-20; known on 2014-07-19; judged wrong by atroche on 2014-08-23.
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Sherlock season 4 will be out by Christmas. ( 23% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by shadow1537 on 2014-01-20; known on 2014-12-25; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-25.
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I will go to the LessWrong social meetup tonight ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by atroche on 2014-01-17; known on 2014-01-17; judged right by atroche on 2014-01-20.
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Ireland will legalize Marijuana between 2021 and 2024 ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by deanmullen2014 on 2013-12-31; known on 2025-01-01.
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The outbreak of a civil war in Bahrain between Summer and Autumn 2014 ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by deanmullen2014 on 2013-12-31; known on 2014-10-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-11-04.
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A virtual reality headset (Oculus Rift-esque) sells more than a million units within the next 5 years. ( 85% confidence; 23 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by adbge on 2013-12-26; known on 2018-12-26; judged right by bendini on 2017-06-05.
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I will successfully complete the 750 Words monthly challenge for December ( 90% confidence )
Created by atroche on 2013-12-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by atroche on 2014-01-01.
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Kaj Sotala will release a prototype of his Bayesian Academy game before 2015 ( 55% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by atroche on 2013-12-16; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by atroche on 2015-01-01.
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I will write 1667 words or more of fiction a day for an entire month during 2014 ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by atroche on 2013-11-13; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by atroche on 2015-01-01.
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Rimworld will release a new version (> 254b) by February 1st ( 60% confidence )
Created by atroche on 2013-12-15; known on 2014-02-02; judged right by atroche on 2014-02-25.
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Chris Dixon: Amazon.com will be using bitcoins in 5 years (by 1/1/2019) ( 33% confidence; 26 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-12-13; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Tony Abbott will not be the prime minister after the next federal election. ( 62% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by waveman on 2013-12-03; known on 2016-09-09; judged right by waveman on 2015-09-19.
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The 2013 Less Wrong Survey will show more than 60% of the participants to be men. ( 94% confidence; 31 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Mathias Zaman on 2013-12-01; known on 2014-01-31; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-01-19.
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The Australian Broadcasting Corporation will be privatised on or by 1/1/2030. ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by najdorf on 2013-11-29; known on 2030-01-02.
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Barack Obama to attempt to run for a third term as President (either through Constitutional amendment or other method). ( 0% confidence; 41 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-24; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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I will get the three App Market classes with F ratings on Code Climate to E or above by the end of the day. ( 60% confidence )
Created by atroche on 2013-11-14; known on 2013-11-15; judged right by atroche on 2013-11-15.
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Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 USA election. ( 43% confidence; 38 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2013-11-11; known on 2016-11-30; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021 ( 4% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Omid on 2013-10-10; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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The Turning will have a Rotten Tomatoes rating >= 75% ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by atroche on 2013-09-18; known on 2013-10-16; judged right by atroche on 2013-10-16.
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Hawthorn will win the 2013 AFL Grand Final ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by atroche on 2013-09-18; known on 2013-09-28; judged right by atroche on 2013-11-13.
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Fremantle will win the 2013 AFL Grand Final ( 32% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by atroche on 2013-09-18; known on 2013-09-28; judged right by atroche on 2013-11-13.
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Geelong will win the 2013 AFL Grand Final ( 21% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by atroche on 2013-09-18; known on 2013-09-28; judged right by atroche on 2013-11-13.
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Predictionbook's overall statistics will remain overconfident (Confidence > accuracy in all six buckets) by 2015. ( 82% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sdr on 2013-08-24; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by atroche on 2015-01-01.
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Jeff Bezos will use his influence as owner of the Washington Post to run for Senate by 2020 ( 11% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by workbean on 2013-08-06; known on 2020-01-16; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-17.
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Amazon will purchase 50% of PayPal from Ebay by the end of 2014. ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dovfischer on 2013-07-15; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by ericlefevre on 2014-12-31.
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Ubuntu will create its very own Kernel within the next five years, ( 13% confidence; 18 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by peterc on 2013-05-28; known on 2018-06-01; judged wrong by moyamo on 2018-06-13.
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In the AFL, the Hawks will defeat Geelong in round 15. ( 55% confidence )
Created by atroche on 2013-05-26; known on 2017-07-06; judged wrong by atroche on 2013-09-17.
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Clojure will move up in the rankings of The Transparent Language Popularity Index by the end of 2013. ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by atroche on 2013-05-26; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
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Tony Abbott will be the Prime Minister following the 2013 Australian Federal Election ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by atroche on 2013-05-26; known on 2013-12-01; judged right by atroche on 2013-12-01.
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Google will survive for five more years ( 97% confidence; 38 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-05-19; known on 2018-05-19; judged right by NancyLebovitz on 2018-05-19.
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I will be accepted into a top 10 Economics PHD program in the following decade. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-05-08; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2021-11-02.
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BTC hits $1000 within the year ( 15% confidence; 20 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2013-11-28.
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PredictionBook will have an iphone ap by June 30 2013 ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by William-Quixote on 2012-09-08; known on 2013-06-30; judged wrong by William-Quixote on 2013-07-01.
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Southern Baptist Convention will not rename themselves in the next two years. ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-21; known on 2013-09-20; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-09-20.
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No military draft in the United States before 2020. ( 90% confidence; 33 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by komponisto on 2009-10-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.