Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Australia will win TUF:Nations Canada VS Australia (Welterweight) ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by mad on 2014-01-21; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by mad on 2014-04-11.
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Australia will win TUF:Nations Canada VS Australia (middleweight) ( 38% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by mad on 2014-01-21; known on 2014-12-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-04-11.
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Morgan will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (beauty tribe, ex-cheerleader) ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-04-11.
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http://slatestarcodex.com/2014/04/09/dermatology-pop-quiz/ 2 is false ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Benquo on 2014-04-10; known on 2014-05-02; judged wrong by Benquo on 2014-04-11.
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http://slatestarcodex.com/2014/04/09/dermatology-pop-quiz/ 1 is false ( 50% confidence )
Created by Benquo on 2014-04-10; known on 2014-05-01; judged wrong by Benquo on 2014-04-11.
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Microsoft will continue extended support of Windows XP past the April 8, 2014 deadline. ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Omid on 2013-12-23; known on 2014-04-09; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-04-10.
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Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-10; known on 2014-04-10; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-04-10.
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After a month, my IUD insertion will have been deemed successful (i.e. it will not have fallen out or caused some sort of medical complication) ( 99% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by mad on 2014-03-05; known on 2014-04-09; judged right by mad on 2014-04-09.
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The CAQ will be the official opposition after the 2014 Quebec elections. ( 30% confidence )
Created by Mati on 2014-04-07; known on 2014-04-08; judged wrong by Mati on 2014-04-09.
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The PLQ will win the April 2014 Quebec elections. ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-03-28; known on 2014-04-08; judged right by Mati on 2014-04-09.
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Mike will come to Danny Brown with me. ( 60% confidence )
Created by booradleytron on 2014-03-02; known on 2014-04-07; judged wrong by booradleytron on 2014-04-07.
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I will not be feeling aftereffects from my IUD insertion in a month (cramps, bleeding) ( 90% confidence )
Created by mad on 2014-03-05; known on 2014-04-06; judged wrong by mad on 2014-04-07.
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“In five years, oil will be uncompetitive with biofuel, even at $50 per barrel, though oil will take longer to decline in price.” —Vinod Khosla ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2014-04-04; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-04-04.
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Richard Walsh will compete in the finale fight for TUF: Nations (Welterweight) ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by mad on 2014-03-24; known on 2014-04-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-04-04.
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Sarah (the cop/MMA fighter on the Brawn tribe) will win Survivor: Cagayan ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-04-04.
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I think I will sleep before 12 PM. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by rickyrich98 on 2014-04-02; known on 2014-04-03; judged right by rickyrich98 on 2014-04-04.
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Someone will send my at least 10 USD or CAD on PayPal (mathieu.roy.37@gmail.com) before April 2nd 2014. ( 1% confidence )
Created by Mati on 2014-01-26; known on 2014-04-03; judged wrong by Mati on 2014-04-03.
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Teddy and I will go see Cashmere Cat. ( 70% confidence )
Created by booradleytron on 2014-03-02; known on 2014-03-23; judged right by booradleytron on 2014-04-03.
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Teddy and I will go see Cashmere Cat. ( 70% confidence )
Created by booradleytron on 2014-03-02; known on 2014-03-23; judged right by booradleytron on 2014-04-03.
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I will burn any kind of optical disc between 2014-01-01 00:00 UTC and 2015-01-01 00:00 UTC ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-24; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-04-03.
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Malaysian Airlines Flight 370 will be found before March 22nd 2014 (or the resting place will be narrowed down to a smaller than 100 square km area of ocean) ( 70% confidence )
Created by dusk on 2014-03-16; known on 2014-03-22; judged wrong by mfb on 2014-04-02.
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MH370 (or the wreckage) will be found by 1 April. ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by procran on 2014-03-17; known on 2014-04-01; judged wrong by procran on 2014-04-02.
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HPMoR: I will finish translating 22nd chapter (into Polish) by the end of March ( 60% confidence )
Created by jkadlubo on 2014-03-02; known on 2014-04-01; judged wrong by jkadlubo on 2014-04-02.
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There are unique 50 wagers on this prediction by April 1st, 2014. ( 69% confidence; 62 wagers; 71 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-04-02; judged right by rickyrich98 on 2014-04-02.
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There are unique 50 wagers on this prediction by April 1st, 2014. ( 69% confidence; 62 wagers; 71 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-04-02; judged right by rickyrich98 on 2014-04-02.
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a post it will fall down ( 70% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-02-25; known on 2014-03-24; judged wrong by reesarose on 2014-04-02.
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The drawing on the board is a depiction of the fat man dilemma. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-04-02; known on 2014-04-02; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-04-02.
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I will make an A in Improv. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-23; known on 2014-04-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-04-01.
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Manchester United will fail to score enough goals against Olympiakos tonight. ( 99% confidence )
Created by Nachlader on 2014-03-19; known on 2014-03-19; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2014-04-01.
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NYRRB: I will keep all of my resolutions through the end of March. ( 70% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-04-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-04-01.
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Cannabis will be legal in 8 different states. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by spund on 2013-12-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2014-04-01.
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“By the end of the weekend, Europe’s biggest war since 1945 will have begun or Putin will have started to send the troops on the border home,” -John Schindler ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-03-28; known on 2014-07-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2014-04-01.
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No US sitting US Republican Senator who is up for reelection in 2014 will come out publicly in favor of gay marriage before April 1, 2014. ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-04-03; known on 2014-04-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2014-04-01.
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Eliezer will publish at least one HPMOR chapter this month. ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ygert on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-04-01; judged wrong by on 2014-04-01.
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“the entire north polar ice cap may well be completely gone in five years.” —Al Gore ( 12% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-11; known on 2014-04-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-04-01.
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I will have a complete futures and FX trading system in place by end 2Q 2014. This means finishing the FX code and enhancing my futures code to support individual contracts. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-07-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-07-12.
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I will have a complete futures and FX trading system in place by end 2Q 2014. This means finishing the FX code and enhancing my futures code to support individual contracts. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-07-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-07-12.
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I will finish the equivalent of second year physics by end 3q 2014 Specifically I will have done the exercises from the special relativity, electromagnetism and thermal physics texts. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-09-30; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-11-02.
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finish quest by end of week ( 80% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-03-26; known on 2014-03-30; judged right by reesarose on 2014-04-01.
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stiles is the spirit? ( 50% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-03-23; known on 2014-03-30; judged right by reesarose on 2014-04-01.
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go to states ( 50% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-03-22; known on 2014-03-30; judged wrong by reesarose on 2014-04-01.
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Burpees will feature in at least one of the workouts that comprises this year's Crossfit Games Open ( 96% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2014-02-03; known on 2014-03-31; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2014-03-31.
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I will drop out of college. ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-13; known on 2014-03-31; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2014-03-31.
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LitSoc gets affiliated. ( 84% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-21; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-31.
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After deleting 2048 cookie, game state will be lost; will seem to be not saved anywhere else. ( 67% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-31; known on 2014-03-30; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-31.
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Alexis will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (beauty tribe, college student) ( 4% confidence )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-03-31.
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Lindsey will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brawn tribe, hairstylist) ( 8% confidence )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-03-31.
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I will make a B- or higher in CS110: Principles of Computer Systems. ( 92% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-03-25; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-30.
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I will make an A or higher in PWR. ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-03-25; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-30.
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There will be pictures of the sandcastle from xkcd 1190 online within a year ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-03-31; known on 2014-03-30; judged right by NancyLebovitz on 2014-03-30.