Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
-
Trump approval rating > 39% at end of September 2017 (according to 538) ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-07-18; known on 2017-10-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-10-01.
-
LSD: I will experience any kind of 'flashback' within 5 years. ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2017-09-30; judged wrong by lazarus on 2018-10-01.
-
by age six months, my baby's eyes will still be blue ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by taryneast on 2017-06-02; known on 2017-09-21; judged wrong by taryneast on 2017-09-30.
-
by age 6 months, my baby's eyes will be hazel or grey/green ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by taryneast on 2017-06-02; known on 2017-09-21; judged right by taryneast on 2017-09-30.
-
[GiveWell will publish its annual report on money moved and web traffic for 2016 ] between September 1 and September 30, 2017 ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-01; known on 2018-01-03; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-09-30.
-
Tom Price (Thomas Edmunds Price) will not be the Health and Human Services Secretary before the end of 2017 ( 51% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-27; known on 2018-01-05; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-09-29.
-
I make the trip today without incident ( 96% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-29; known on 2017-09-30; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-29.
-
TbG: sebfg qentba ( 57% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-26; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-28.
-
No paper primarily about Geoff Anders' Connection Theory will be published in a peer-reviewed psychology journal in the next 5 years. ( 89% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-27; known on 2017-09-27; judged right by lukeprog on 2017-09-27.
-
someone actually shows up to let me in to work today ( 73% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-25; known on 2017-09-26; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-26.
-
“Google's self-driving cars will be available [for purchase at a reasonable price to buy and drive legally] for everyone [the same market that can currently afford to buy a car] within five years” – Sergey Brin ( 16% confidence; 32 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Qiaochu on 2012-10-14; known on 2017-09-26; judged wrong by Tanner on 2017-09-26.
-
Angela Merkel will serve another term as chancellor of Germany ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by phreeza on 2016-01-07; known on 2017-10-16; judged right by iCrown on 2017-09-25.
-
Angela Merkel is re-elected Chancellor of Germany ( 79% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2017-11-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2017-09-25.
-
AfD will not end up in power. ( 80% confidence )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-06-30; judged right by technicalities on 2017-09-24.
-
Alternative für Deutschland will gain 40+ seats in the German election. ( 70% confidence )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-06-30; judged right by technicalities on 2017-09-24.
-
End of the world/Nibiru collides with earth, not including(or at least beginning with) a human-made nuclear weapons catastrophe ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-21; known on 2017-09-24; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-24.
-
more storms today in #tbay ( 53% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-22; known on 2017-09-23; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-23.
-
I will not complain to Uhaul or my insurance company about damage to/theft of the contents of my Uboxes ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2017-08-07; known on 2017-10-01; judged right by btrettel on 2017-09-22.
-
I have a job different from the one I had on 6/25/17. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-06-25; known on 2017-09-21; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2017-09-21.
-
My top shared 5 F2 variants from the 1000 genome data will all be from people from Northern European countries. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-15; judged right by Porejide on 2017-09-19.
-
I will spend >30 hours of non-class time analyzing my personal WGS data over the next four months. ( 33% confidence )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-15; judged wrong by Porejide on 2017-09-19.
-
I will regret having my whole genome sequenced in 4 months (self-report). ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-15; judged wrong by Porejide on 2017-09-19.
-
My WGS results will inspire me to develop a new habit in the next 4 months, either via a new SR habit flashcard or a new lifestats column. ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-15; judged wrong by Porejide on 2017-09-19.
-
I will get further medical testing (confirmatory genetic testing, or lab results) as a result of my WGS results. ( 20% confidence )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-15; judged wrong by Porejide on 2017-09-19.
-
My subjectively objective risk for one or more cancer types will triple as a result of analyzing my WGS results over the next 4 months. ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-16; judged wrong by Porejide on 2017-09-19.
-
I will be able to (reasonably consistently) beat AoE2HD AI 1v1 on hardest difficulty setting at any point in 2017 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2017-09-19.
-
at least 1 death at the march tomorrow ( 94% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-15; known on 2017-09-18; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-17.
-
North Korea will launch (or attempt to launch) a ballistic missile (any range) before the end of September 2017 ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-04; known on 2017-10-05; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-09-15.
-
[GiveWell will publish its annual report on money moved and web traffic for 2016 ] between August 1 and August 31, 2017 ( 25% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-01; known on 2018-01-03; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-09-14.
-
Tech – Amazon announces plans to offers connectivity or phone plans as an add on to Amazon Prime by the end of August 2017. ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-09; known on 2017-09-01; judged wrong by Pablo on 2017-09-13.
-
Sept 12 Soyuz ISS 52S launches successfully ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-12; known on 2017-09-19; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-09-13.
-
New flagship OLED iPhone will ship without Touch ID ( 56% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-07-03; known on 2017-10-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-09-12.
-
iPhone X will have a 3.5mm headphone jack ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-09-12; known on 2017-09-13; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-09-12.
-
[Verge iphone 8 rumours] Wireless charging ( 89% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-12; known on 2017-10-12; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-09-12.
-
[Verge iphone 8 rumours] $999+ price ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-12; known on 2017-10-12; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-09-12.
-
[Verge iphone 8 rumours] Face scanning camera ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-12; known on 2017-10-12; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-09-12.
-
[Verge iphone 8 rumours] New design ( 99% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-12; known on 2017-10-12; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-09-12.
-
Я не опоздаю на прыжок к 11:00. (если опоздаем все вместе из-за того, что я встречал Сашу, то не считается) ( 85% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2017-09-09; known on 2017-09-10; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-09-12.
-
Backdoor in crypto used by Signal/libsignal (revealed to public in 3 months) ( 10% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-12; known on 2017-09-11; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-11.
-
[North Korea launches at Guam] at least four missiles ( 34% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-11; known on 2017-09-10; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-09-10.
-
[North Korea launches at Guam] at least three missiles ( 35% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-11; known on 2017-09-10; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-09-10.
-
[North Korea launches at Guam] at least two missiles ( 38% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-11; known on 2017-09-10; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-09-10.
-
[North Korea launches at Guam] at least one missile ( 35% confidence; 15 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-11; known on 2017-09-10; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-09-10.
-
I will see a platypus today ( 60% confidence )
Created by sjy on 2017-09-10; known on 2017-09-11; judged wrong by sjy on 2017-09-10.
-
The High Court of Australia will rule that the Government's proposal to conduct a postal plebiscite on same sex marriage is an invalid exercise of executive power ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by sjy on 2017-08-15; known on 2017-09-12; judged wrong by sjy on 2017-09-10.
-
North Korea conducts a nuclear test in 2017 ( 66% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-03-24; known on 2018-01-15; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-09.
-
I will replace my laptop in 2017. ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-16; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-09.
-
Fox News cuts ties with Eric Bolling ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-05; known on 2018-08-06; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-09-09.
-
I will not smoke a tobacco product for the next 5 years. ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2017-09-07; judged right by gwern on 2017-09-07.
-
The company I am interning at will try to hire me. (if they ask me whether I want to work for them and I say no, it still counts) ( 44% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-08-08; known on 2017-09-01; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-09-07.