Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 63% | 43% | 49% | 51% | 71% | |
Sample Size | 18 | 16 | 28 | 37 | 96 | 190 | 385 |
Displaying all predictions made by Raahul_Kumar. Filter by:
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Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee for President in 2016. ( 52% confidence; 88 wagers; 55 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-14; known on 2016-07-20; judged right by elephantower on 2016-07-16.
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Marco Rubio to be the Republican nominee in 2016. ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-25; known on 2016-07-20; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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Bill Shorten will be Prime Minister of Australia. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-07-06; known on 2016-07-30; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-09.
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AlphaGo will win 5-0 against Ke Jie. ( 73% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-11; known on 2017-12-16; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-10-20.
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Turnbull will be Australia's next prime minister ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-02; known on 2016-07-08; judged right by elephantower on 2016-07-09.
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In the next 5 years, Northern Ireland holds either an Irish reunification referendum, or an independence referendum. ( 12% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-06-27; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ( 55% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-06-27; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by davatk on 2021-01-16.
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The Scottish Parliament will “veto” Brexit. ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-04-03.
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The UK will hold a second EU referendum before it officially is no longer part of the EU ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jasticE on 2016-06-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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David Cameron will not formally invoke Article 50 ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ejlflop on 2016-06-25; known on 2016-11-01; judged right by Jenson on 2016-07-14.
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Scotland will have another independence referendum and the result will be YES. ( 42% confidence; 16 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-03-23; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-02.
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Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians. http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/ ( 19% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-26; known on 2027-01-01.
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Bharat's current account deficit will be 0.7% GDP in FY16 owing to lower commodity prices. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-18; known on 2016-05-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-07-06.
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Syrian government will take Raqqa from Islamic State this year. ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-27; known on 2016-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-12-26.
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Iraqi government will retake Mosul from Islamic State this year. ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-27; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-12-26.
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IRNSS satellite navigation constellation will be complete by July. 6/7 Satellites already launched. ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-27; known on 2016-07-16; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-05-06.
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AI to beat at least one of the ten top-ranked humans in Starcraft Brood War by January 1, 2023 ( 68% confidence; 9 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-23; known on 2023-01-01.
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AI to beat at least one of the ten top-ranked humans in Starcraft Brood War by January 1, 2019 ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-23; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2019-01-01.
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Alibaba will surpass Walmart as world's No1 retailer measured in gross merchandise volume. ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-22; known on 2016-12-25; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-04-26.
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In 2019, I’ll be able to get a pizza delivered to my house by a robot. ( 38% confidence; 15 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-20; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-21.
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European Union long term growth rate will average 1.4% real gdp annually. ( 100% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-19; known on 2040-12-25.
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USA economy's long-run rate of growth of per-capita real GDP over the next 25 years will be 0.9% due to demography, education, inequality, and the federal debt —Robert J Gordon Stanley G. Harris Professor,Social Sciences Northwestern University. ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-19; known on 2041-12-25.
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Soyuz TMA-20M spacecraft carrying the International Space Station crew of cosmonauts Alexey Ovchinin and Oleg Skripochka and astronaut Jeffrey Williams will reach ISS. ( 84% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-17; known on 2016-03-18; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-19.
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Lee Sedol will win the final game against AlphaGo ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by waveman on 2016-03-15; known on 2016-03-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-15.
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The fifth match with AlphaGo will go to the end game (as described by the commentators), and then AlphaGo will resign. ( 38% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by regex on 2016-03-15; known on 2016-03-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-15.
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AlphaGo's meltdown in game 4 was not due to flaws in either the value or policy networks. ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2016-03-14; known on 2017-06-01; judged wrong by sole21000 on 2017-06-01.
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World Champion of Go will defeat Google's AI ( 28% confidence; 9 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by artir on 2016-03-08; known on 2016-03-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-12.
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AlphaGo will win the 5th match against Lee Sedol ( 68% confidence; 12 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by artir on 2016-03-13; known on 2016-03-16; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-15.
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Lee Sedol attempts suicide ( 1% confidence; 21 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-12; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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By 2025, China's yuan will be backed by gold. ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by danpop on 2016-03-11; known on 2025-01-01.
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AlphaGo will beat any human it plays for the next 2 years(no handicap games). ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-11; known on 2018-12-16; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-13.
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Ke Jie loses to AlphaGo ( 87% confidence; 15 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-08.
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AlphaGo will beat Lee Sodol in the three remaining matches of their initial 5. ( 74% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by earthbound01 on 2016-03-11; known on 2016-03-15; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-13.
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Bharat's millionaires,multi millionaires, UHNWI ($30 M+), centa-millionaires(100 M+), billionaires will at least double from 2015-2025. — The Wealth Report,Knight Frank. ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-09; known on 2025-12-25.
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Palau, Panama, Argentina, Kazakhstan, Lebanon, will be high income countries by 2020. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-09; known on 2020-12-25.
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Donald Trump will win the Republican nomination ( 77% confidence; 18 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sole21000 on 2016-03-09; known on 2016-07-22; judged right by elephantower on 2016-07-20.
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Alphago will win over Lee Sedol at least 4-1 ( 81% confidence; 17 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by sole21000 on 2016-03-09; known on 2016-03-14; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-15.
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Bitcoin price reaches $500 before June 2016 (1 BTC ≥ 500 USD) ( 41% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-22; known on 2016-06-01; judged right by jesselevine on 2016-06-01.
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Boko Haram will be defeated this year. ( 44% confidence; 5 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-06; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-12-25.
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Worldwide capacity of rooftop, building-integrated and local PV soar from 104GW in 2014 to nearly 1.8TW in 2040, a 17-fold increase. ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-06; known on 2040-12-25.
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Seb Henbest, Bloomberg New Energy Finance: “The CO² content of the atmosphere is on course to exceed 450 parts per million by 2035". The world will fail to keep temperature rise below 2 °C. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-06; known on 2035-12-25.
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55% of CO² emitted in 2030 will be produced by states that have reached peak levels —World Resources Institute ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-06; known on 2030-12-25.
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Global CO² emissions peak at 15.3Gt in 2029 —Bloomberg New Energy Finance ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-06; known on 2029-12-25.
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56% share of world generation for zero carbon energy sources(renewables+nuclear) by 2040. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-06; known on 2040-12-25.
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North American oil industry will collapse. Rig count will fall to zero. ( 7% confidence; 29 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-04; known on 2016-09-25; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-25.
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Costa Rica, Brasil, Mauritius will be high income countries (World Bank definition) by 2020. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-03; known on 2020-12-25.
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Malaysia will be a high income country by 2020. ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-03; known on 2020-12-25.
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This prediction will be judged “Wrong”. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-03-04.
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SpaceX to successfully launch SES satellite by April 1, 2016 ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-04-02; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-05.
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Sanders will win the Democratic nomination ( 21% confidence; 29 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by LawrenceNewport on 2016-02-26; known on 2016-06-14; judged wrong by LawrenceNewport on 2016-06-14.
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₹72-3 to the US dollar by December 2016. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-25; known on 2016-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-12-26.
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Trump will win the Republican nomination ( 70% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by LawrenceNewport on 2016-02-24; known on 2016-06-07; judged right by LawrenceNewport on 2016-06-14.
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Russian Federation < 100 B Foreign Exchange reserves ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-02-22; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-02.
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Universal literacy worldwide by 2040 for 15-24 year olds. ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-09; known on 2040-12-31.
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The Higgs boson discovered at the LHC on 4/7/12 will be found to NOT be a standard model Higgs boson. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-02-19; known on 2025-01-01.
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Land a robot on the Moon by 2017 for the Google Lunar X prize —Rahul Narayan, CEO of Team Indus, Bharat ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-18; known on 2017-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-27.
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My husband, while sitting on PredictionBook, will ask me yet again what I think the odds are for Hilary or Bernie or Trump, even though he just asked me yesterday. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by SmartArse on 2016-02-16; known on 2016-02-17; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-16.
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Italy will default on its debt by 2022. ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-16; known on 2022-12-25; judged wrong by qznc on 2022-01-02.
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Eurozone sovereign debt crisis by 2022. ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-16; known on 2022-12-25.
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Spain will default on its debt by 2022. ( 39% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-16; known on 2022-12-25.
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The S&P 500 Index will go below 1250 in 2016. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by equivrel-markets on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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The S&P 500 Index will close below 1600 at the end of 2016. ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by equivrel-markets on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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The S&P 500 will close below 1750 at the end of 2016. ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by equivrel-markets on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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The S&P 500 Index will close below 2000 at the end of 2016. ( 77% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by equivrel-markets on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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There will be at least one more gravitational wave detection announced in 2016 ( 86% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-06-15.
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Bharat will eliminate malaria by 2030. ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-14; known on 2030-12-25.
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World will eliminate malaria by 2030. ( 69% confidence; 13 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-14; known on 2030-12-25.
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Obama will successfully appoint Scalia's appointment. ( 43% confidence; 33 wagers; 22 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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Bernie Sanders will win the Nevada primary ( 49% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by silacoid on 2016-02-13; known on 2016-02-21; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-21.
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Independent of the next elected president of the United States, there will not exist a wall along the 1,954 mile border shared with Mexico within 8 years of inauguration. ( 74% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-13; known on 2025-01-20.
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Bharat Biotech will develop the first Zika vaccine by 2018. ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-13; known on 2018-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-27.
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India will win the remaining two T20 matches against Sri Lanka (SL T20 tour of India). Pitches will be more spin-friendly than at Pune. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Pradeep_Kumar on 2016-02-10; known on 2016-02-15; judged right by Pradeep_Kumar on 2016-02-14.
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Gravitational waves will be detected this year. ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-10; known on 2016-12-25; judged right by kuudes on 2016-02-11.
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When DeepDream for audio is invented, the output will cause seriously ill effects in humans like seizures. This will happen before 2020. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Houshalter on 2016-02-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2021. ( 46% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-09; known on 2022-06-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-12-05.
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I will win my bet with Huw Price that 2/3rds of a panel of three physicists will assign less than 50% credence to cold fusion or other new-physics energy production by Andrea Rossi/Industrial Heat or Robert Godes/Brillouin Energy on New Year's Eve 2018. ( 99% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by CarlShulman on 2016-02-09; known on 2019-01-31; judged right by CarlShulman on 2019-06-26.
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Some kind of “PHP in the browser” system will overtake node.js in usage by August 4, 2016 ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-02-09; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-08.
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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2018 ( 34% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2019-06-01; judged right by Pablo on 2019-04-22.
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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020 ( 43% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2021-06-01; judged right by gwern on 2021-06-01.
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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2017 ( 9% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2018-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-06-01.
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Vladimir Putin is not the President of Russia at the end of this prediction. ( 40% confidence; 16 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-02-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-01-02.
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ExxonMobil has predicted that global demand for coal will peak in about 2025 ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-04; known on 2025-12-25.
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Zhongguo's output of greenhouse gases will peak in 2025, 5 years ahead of the pledged 2030 date. ( 96% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-04; known on 2025-12-25.
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Bharat will meet or exceed the Copenhagen pledge to reduce the emissions intensity of GDP by 20–25% in 2020 compared to 2005 levels. ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-04; known on 2021-12-25.
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Cannabis will be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substances Act before 2023 ( 44% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2016-02-04; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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A US state (other than Florida) will declare at least a county-wide state of emergency due to the Zika virus before June of 2016 ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2016-02-04; known on 2016-06-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-02.
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Jeb Bush will be the next President-elect ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-03; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-02-21.
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I will be re-hired by the end of the month. ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Lissy on 2016-02-02; known on 2016-02-29; judged right by Lissy on 2016-02-29.
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AlphaGo wins 5-0 in march ( 55% confidence; 34 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2016-02-02; known on 2016-03-30; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-13.
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TPP ratified in Canada ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-31; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-17.
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The Burea of Economic Analysis March 25 real GDP growth rate for the USA economy in 2015 will be <= 2.10%. ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-31; known on 2016-03-26; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-27.
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Donald Trump will win the Iowa Caucus ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RationalEmpathy on 2016-01-31; known on 2016-02-03; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-02.
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Carly Fiorina will be the next President-elect ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-30; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-11.
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Banco Central do Brasil (BACEN) – Brasil's 2017 real economic growth rate will be 0.87%. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-30; known on 2018-01-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-03.
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Banco Central do Brasil (BACEN) – Brasil's 2016 real economic growth rate will be -2.99%. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-30; known on 2017-01-30; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-16.
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Bharat will be ranked 9th(from 11th) in the world for solar photovoltaic total capacity in 2015. ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-29; known on 2016-12-25.
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Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally. ( 10% confidence; 17 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-29; known on 2022-12-25.
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Bharat will be ranked 2nd in the world by 2020 for steel production. ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-29; known on 2020-12-25; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-12.
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Bharat will be ranked 4th in the world by 2021 for zinc production. ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-29; known on 2021-12-25.
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AlphaGo defeats Lee Sedol in 3/5 or more games in March ( 64% confidence; 76 wagers; 39 comments )
Created by Jach on 2016-01-28; known on 2016-04-01; judged right by Jach on 2016-03-12.