Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 60% | 63% | 75% | 82% | 87% | 93% | |
Sample Size | 1292 | 1606 | 2197 | 2343 | 2286 | 671 | 10395 |
Displaying all predictions made by Cato. Filter by:
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[Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor to be released, conditional on Canadian government] still holding Meng Wanzhou ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-06-01.
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[Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor to be released, conditional on Canadian government] extraditing Meng Wanzhou to US ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-06-01.
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[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for May 2019 to exceed 110 ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2019-06-18; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-24.
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[US politics] House of Representatives to vote on Trump impeachment articles before 2020-05-09 ( 59% confidence; 20 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2020-05-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-19.
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Chinese government to limit or tax exports of rare earths to the US by 2019-08-30 ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2019-08-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-01.
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US to conduct nuclear weapons test by 2019-08-30 ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2019-08-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-01.
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[IPO] Cloudflare IPO in 2019 ( 64% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-12.
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[IPO] Cloudflare IPO in 2019 H1 ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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Kim Jong Un to visit Seoul by 2019-10-01 ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-28; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-01.
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[Commodities: At next meeting, OPEC+ to announce] extension of duration of present cuts but no change in scale from 1.2 MMbpd ( 23% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2019-07-30; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-10.
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[Commodities: At next meeting, OPEC+ to announce] extension of duration and deepening of cuts (i.e., cutting more than 1.2 MMbpd) ( 27% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2019-07-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-10.
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[Commodities: At next meeting, OPEC+ to announce] extension of duration but reducing scale (i.e., cutting less than 1.2 MMbpd) ( 25% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2019-07-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-10.
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[Commodities: At next meeting, OPEC+ to announce] end of production cuts ( 28% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2019-07-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-10.
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[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] JS/DT's child ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20.
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[Commodities] Venezuela will produce 0 crude oil in at least one month between May 2019 and May 2020 ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-16; known on 2020-06-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
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[Commodities: In at least one month between May 2019 and May 2020, Iraq crude oil production to fall below] 4 MMbpd ( 25% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-16; known on 2020-06-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
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[Commodities: In at least one month between May 2019 and May 2020, Iraq crude oil production to fall below] 3 MMbpd ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-16; known on 2020-06-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
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[Commodities: In at least one month between May 2019 and May 2020, Iraq crude oil production to fall below] 2 MMbpd ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-16; known on 2020-06-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
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[Commodities: In at least one month between May 2019 and May 2020, Iraq crude oil production to fall below] 1 MMbpd ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-16; known on 2020-06-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
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[Politics] US government to announce ban on Chinese messaging, ecommerce, or web service such as WeChat, JD, Alibaba, Made-in-China, or Baidu as part of trade dispute—including conditional or postponed bans ( 9% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-16; known on 2020-05-15; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[Politics] Iran and US to establish formal diplomatic relations by May 2020 EOM ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-05.
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[Fighting] Robert Whittaker to fight Israel Adesanya in 2019 ( 79% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-13; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-08.
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US military to execute air strike or missile strike on Iranian territory or naval assets by May 2020 EOM ( 27% confidence; 19 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-13; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-05.
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A US Navy vessel to sink or be destroyed in the Persian/Arab Gulf by May 2020 EOM ( 12% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-13; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-05.
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[US-China] Xi and Trump to meet during June 2019 G20 meeting in Japan ( 87% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-13; known on 2019-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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[US-China] Trump and Xi to meet when Trump visits Asia later in May 2019 ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-13; known on 2019-06-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2019-06-01.
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[Politics] Hassan Rouhani to be president of Iran as of 2020-05-12 ( 91% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-13; known on 2020-05-13; judged right by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[Commodities] As of June 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of May 2019 ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2019-06-12; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-12.
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[Commodities] As of July 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of June 2019 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2019-07-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-10.
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[Commodities] As of May 2020, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of April 2020 ( 52% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2020-05-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[Commodities] As of April 2020, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of March 2020 ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2020-04-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-09.
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[Commodities] As of March 2020, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of February 2020 ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2020-03-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-13.
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[Commodities] As of December 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of November 2019 ( 52% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2019-12-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-13.
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[Commodities] As of October 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of September 2019 ( 53% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2019-10-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-10.
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[Commodities] As of September 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of August 2019 ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-11.
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[Commodities] As of August 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of July 2019 ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2019-08-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-07.
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[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] Chang San-cheng (張善政) ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2020-01-12; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-12.
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[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] James Soong (宋楚瑜) ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2020-01-12; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-12.
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[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] Wang Jyn-pyng (王金平) ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2020-01-12; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-12.
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[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] Terry Gou (郭台銘) ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2020-01-12; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-12.
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[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] Eric Chu (朱立倫) ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2020-01-12; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-12.
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[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] Chou Hsi-wei (周錫瑋) ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2020-01-12; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-12.
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[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] Chang Ya-chung (張亞中) ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2020-01-12; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-12.
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[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] William Lai (賴淸德) ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2020-01-12; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-12.
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[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) ( 52% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2020-01-12; judged right by Cato on 2020-01-12.
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[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] a member of the KMT ( 38% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2020-01-12; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-12.
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[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] a member of the DPP ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2020-01-12; judged right by Cato on 2020-01-12.
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[Commodities] Brent > WTI through May 2019 EOM ( 91% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-06-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-03.
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[Game of Thrones] Daenerys Targaryen to kill Jon Snow ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-06; known on 2019-05-21; judged wrong by AlexLamson on 2019-05-20.
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[Game of Thrones] Jon Snow to kill Daenerys Targaryen ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-06; known on 2019-05-21; judged right by AlexLamson on 2019-05-20.
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[Fighting] Douglas Lima to beat Michael Page at Bellator 221 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-05; known on 2019-05-11; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-12.
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[Fighting] Jose Aldo to beat Alex Volkanovski at UFC 237 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-05; known on 2019-05-12; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-12.
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[US politics: Within the next year, Donald Trump's tax returns] to be obtained by the House or Senate ( 50% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-05; known on 2020-05-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-06.
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[US politics: Within the next year, Donald Trump's tax returns] to be released to the public ( 32% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-05; known on 2020-05-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-06.
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[Fighting] Official cross-promotional bout involving UFC fighter in the next year ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-05; known on 2020-05-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-06.
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The winner of the 2019 World Series of Poker main event to be a US citizen ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-26; known on 2019-07-17; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-17.
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The winner of the 2019 World Series of Poker main event to be a first-time champion ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-26; known on 2019-07-17; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-17.
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[Fighting] Brock Lesnar to fight Daniel Cormier in an official MMA bout by 2020-04-26 ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-26; known on 2020-04-26; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-26.
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[US politics: As of 2019-07-25] Andrew Yang will have been listed by PredictIt as the number 5 contender for the Democratic Party nomination for at least one day ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-26; known on 2019-07-26; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-16.
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[US politics: As of 2019-07-25] Andrew Yang will have been listed by PredictIt as the number 4 contender for the Democratic Party nomination for at least one day ( 59% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-26; known on 2019-07-26; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-25.
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[US politics: As of 2019-07-25] Andrew Yang will have been listed by PredictIt as the number 3 contender for the Democratic Party nomination for at least one day ( 35% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-26; known on 2019-07-26; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-26.
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[US politics: As of 2019-07-25] Andrew Yang will have been listed by PredictIt as the number 2 contender for the Democratic Party nomination for at least one day ( 20% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-26; known on 2019-07-26; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-26.
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[US politics: As of 2019-07-25] Andrew Yang will have been listed by PredictIt as the top contender for the Democratic Party nomination for at least one day ( 11% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-26; known on 2019-07-26; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-26.
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[Libya: As of 2020-04-25] EU to recognize the Government of National Accord ( 89% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-25; known on 2020-04-25; judged right by Cato on 2020-04-26.
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[Libya: As of 2020-04-25] US government to recognize the Government of National Accord ( 80% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-25; known on 2020-04-25; judged right by Cato on 2020-04-26.
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Wikipedia's English version to be blocked in China a month from now ( 76% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-25; known on 2019-05-24; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-24.
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[Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 9] Matt Sayles to beat Kyle Nelson ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-22; known on 2019-05-05; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-05.
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[Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 9] Arjan Bhullar to beat Juan Adams ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-22; known on 2019-05-05; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-05.
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[Fighting] Tim Elliott to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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[Fighting] Alexandre Pantoja to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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[Fighting] Joseph Benavidez to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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[Fighting] Wilson Reis to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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[Fighting] Deiveson Figueiredo to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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[Fighting] Jussier Formiga to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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[Fighting] Justin Gaethje to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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[Fighting] José Aldo to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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[Fighting] Brian Ortega to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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[Fighting] Raphael Assunção to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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[Fighting] Frankie Edgar to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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[Fighting] Alexander Volkanovski to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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[Fighting] Aljamain Sterling to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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[Fighting] Pedro Munhoz to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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[Fighting] Renato Moicano to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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[Fighting] Tony Ferguson to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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[Fighting] Al Iaquinta to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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[Fighting] Dominick Cruz to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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[Fighting] Dustin Poirier to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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[Fighting] Ben Askren to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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[Fighting] Jorge Masvidal to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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[Fighting] Rafael Dos Anjos to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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[Fighting] Colby Covington to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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[Fighting] Tyron Woodley to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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[Fighting] Israel Adesanya to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY ( 36% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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[Fighting] Kelvin Gastelum to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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[Fighting] Jacare Souza to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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[Fighting] Luke Rockhold to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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[Fighting] Yoel Romero to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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[Fighting] Dominick Reyes to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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[Fighting] Anthony Smith to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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[Fighting] Thiago Santos to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.