Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Bin Laden is still alive! ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by minhduc on 2011-05-04; known on 2011-07-04; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-04.
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Tyrion will not die in A Dance With Dragons. ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ZrCa on 2011-06-29; known on 2011-08-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-21.
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Tyrion will not die in A Dance With Dragons. ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ZrCa on 2011-06-29; known on 2011-08-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-21.
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Neither angelina joli nor brad pitt will die in the next 12 months ( 98% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Frank on 2010-04-18; known on 2011-07-02; judged right by Frank on 2011-07-02.
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Xmonad 1.0 will be released in July. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-01; known on 2011-08-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-01.
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Xmonad 1.0 will be released in July. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-01; known on 2011-08-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-01.
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Google will be rebuffed in their attempt to acquire the Nortel patents ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kallman on 2011-04-10; known on 2011-06-30; judged right by gwern on 2011-07-01.
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'Facebook growth slows, they hit 650M users by 4th quarter of 2011' —Brian Breslin ( 40% confidence; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-29; known on 2011-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-07-01.
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Greece Will be Bankrupt within 6 months from today ( 26% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by niekjetten on 2011-06-18; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by procran on 2011-12-01.
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Greece Will be Bankrupt within 6 months from today ( 26% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by niekjetten on 2011-06-18; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by procran on 2011-12-01.
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The Vic Hotel in Annandale will start serving Bulmers on tap again by Dec 2011. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Jessica Hartany on 2011-03-31; known on 2011-12-15; judged right by Jessica Hartany on 2011-07-01.
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Bitcoin >=$100 by July 1 —the-ace ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-04; known on 2011-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-30.
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“Construction of 'Ground Zero mosque' to commence before midnight ET 30 Jun 2011” —Intrade ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-11; known on 2011-06-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-30.
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Moneyed interests and will become the increasingly dominant force in Iranian politics, while Ahmadinejad will lose influence and the mullahs will become slightly more influential. —Bruce Bueno de Mesquita ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-09; known on 2011-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-27.
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Tottenham Hotspur will qualify for the Champions League this season. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by DavidPercival on 2011-05-07; known on 2011-07-07; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-06-27.
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nevada will be the first state to legalise google driverless car – http://www.caradvice.com.au/118506/google-driverless-car-almost-legal-in-nevada/ ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jessica Hartany on 2011-05-29; known on 2011-06-30; judged right by gwern on 2011-06-23.
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btc ~$15 in 2 weeks. —cwkoss ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-09; known on 2011-06-23; judged right by gwern on 2011-06-23.
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Tiger Woods will not win a major tournament in the year 2011 ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by travis2010 on 2011-05-25; known on 2011-08-15; judged right by niekjetten on 2011-06-21.
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“BP to enter bankruptcy in the United Kingdom before midnight ET 30 Jun 2011” —Intrade ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2011-06-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-19.
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“BP to announce before midnight ET 30 Jun 2011 it will file for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy [in US]” —Intrade ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2011-06-20; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-19.
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Nuclear problems in Japan will be solved at the end of April ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by minhduc on 2011-04-01; known on 2011-04-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-19.
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I think that kadaffi will leave for Venuzuela within two months form now (april 15 2011) ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by niekjetten on 2011-04-15; known on 2011-06-17; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-17.
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I will win $50 in prediction competition at the end of this term. ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Eunseo on 2011-03-09; known on 2011-06-10; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-06-17.
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Sandra will win in prediction competition at the end of semester. ( 77% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Eunseo on 2011-06-04; known on 2011-06-18; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2011-06-17.
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I will not drink any alcohol till final design presentation. ( 50% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Eunseo on 2011-05-29; known on 2011-06-15; judged right by Eunseo on 2011-06-17.
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The crit session will finish after 6pm tomorrow. ( 80% confidence )
Created by alvinTng on 2011-06-14; known on 2011-06-15; judged right by alvinTng on 2011-06-16.
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Egypt will stop the export of natural gas to Israel ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by wael on 2011-05-07; known on 2011-06-16; judged wrong by wael on 2011-06-16.
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Niklas Eliason will be sentenced to psychiatric care ( 35% confidence )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-13; known on 2011-06-13; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-06-15.
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Niklas Eliasson will be sentenced to 14 years in prison ( 65% confidence )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-13; known on 2011-06-13; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-06-15.
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I will finish elective assignment tonight ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Ye on 2011-06-12; known on 2011-06-12; judged wrong by Ye on 2011-06-13.
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Bitcoin: <$1/btc in 6 weeks —cjb ( 10% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-01; known on 2011-06-12; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-12.
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Apple will release an iPad with a built-in camera in 2011. ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-06-11.
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'Apple gives away [Mac OS X] Lion for free or less than $30' —Brian Breslin ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-29; known on 2011-07-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-06-11.
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Nintendo to announce successor to Wii in 2011 —Game Informer ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-06-11.
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I'll sleep after 5am today. ( 40% confidence )
Created by alvinTng on 2011-06-05; known on 2011-06-05; judged right by alvinTng on 2011-06-08.
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Zlatan will score at least one goal in tonights Euro2012 qualifier ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-06-07; known on 2011-06-08; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-06-08.
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Sweden will beat Finland in tonights Euro2012 qualifier ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-06-07; known on 2011-06-08; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-06-08.
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Bitcoin >=$100 by July 1 —the-ace ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-04; known on 2011-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-30.
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RBA will raise interest rates by 0.25% in June ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-07; known on 2011-06-07; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-06-07.
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There will be a terrorist attack in the USA in the next month. ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by DavidPercival on 2011-05-07; known on 2011-06-07; judged wrong by DavidPercival on 2011-06-07.
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Bitcoin 'hits $22 before monday' —BrideTrollApprentice ( 25% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-03; known on 2011-06-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-06.
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Federer will beat Nadal in the French Open final ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-06-04; known on 2011-06-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-05.
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At least 3 parcels will arrive this afternoon. ( 20% confidence )
Created by alvinTng on 2011-06-02; known on 2011-06-03; judged wrong by alvinTng on 2011-06-05.
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Bitcoin >=$100 by July 1 —the-ace ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-04; known on 2011-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-30.
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Jess will be back in the labs before midnight ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-06-04; known on 2011-06-04; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-06-05.
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Djokovic will win French Open 2011 ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-31; known on 2011-06-05; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-06-04.
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There will be a terrorist attack on the US within the next month. ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by DavidPercival on 2011-05-03; known on 2011-06-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-03.
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Allied forces will need at least 2 more months to overthow Gadhafi's government! ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by minhduc on 2011-04-02; known on 2011-06-02; judged right by gwern on 2011-06-03.
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I will mark this prediction as false ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by KatjaGrace on 2011-06-02; known on 2011-06-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-03.
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Robin Söderling will win French Open 2011 ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-31; known on 2011-06-05; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-06-01.