Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 83% | 67% | 86% | 94% | 85% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 6 | 12 | 7 | 17 | 20 | 62 |
Displaying all predictions made by avi. Filter by:
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PredictionBook will transition to read-only mode as originally stated. ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by avi on 2023-09-27; known on 2024-01-10.
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[I will be back home] never (won't make it back home) ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Issa Rice on 2022-02-27; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2022-03-10.
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[I will be back home] after March 31, 2022 ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Issa Rice on 2022-02-27; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2022-03-10.
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[I will be back home] on or before March 3, 2022 ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Issa Rice on 2022-02-27; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2022-03-10.
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John McAfee faked his own death ( 4% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by XORXERY on 2021-06-24; known on 2030-04-01.
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There are ten or more US Supreme Court justices by the end of 2024 ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-11-05; known on 2025-01-01.
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Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election ( 95% confidence; 26 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-11-04; known on 2020-12-01; judged right by Deepak on 2020-12-15.
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China will successfully incorporate Taiwan by 2050 ( 32% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-10-22; known on 2051-01-01.
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A Trump-nominated Supreme Court Justice is confirmed to replace Ginsburg before the 2020 November election. ( 79% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Deepak on 2020-10-07; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by Deepak on 2020-10-27.
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[Trump ] dies ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by technillogue on 2020-10-02; known on 2020-11-06; judged wrong by finback on 2020-11-06.
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erowid.org still exists with its full archive available to the public, on May 1 2024 ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by finback on 2020-09-18; known on 2024-05-01.
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I will weigh between 165-175 pounds by end of August 2020 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by avi on 2020-02-22; known on 2020-08-31; judged wrong by avi on 2020-08-31.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 100,000 ( 37% confidence; 37 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-04-10.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 50,000 ( 35% confidence; 30 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by nortriptyline2 on 2020-04-03.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 100 million ( 0% confidence; 29 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 50 million ( 1% confidence; 34 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 10 million ( 8% confidence; 36 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 5 million ( 12% confidence; 34 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 1 million ( 40% confidence; 45 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-09.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 500,000 ( 44% confidence; 46 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-29.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 10,000 ( 56% confidence; 45 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-03-20.
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Lab-cultured red protein that emulates beef will become commonplace, and sold in typical grocery stores, *by 2025*. ( 29% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sungk2048 on 2020-01-18; known on 2025-01-19.
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The Democratic Nominee will be someone other than Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Yang, Klobuchar, or Bloomberg ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2020-07-15; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-07-16.
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Mike Bloomberg is the US 2020 Democratic Party nominee ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2020-07-15; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-07-16.
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Amy Klobuchar is the US 2020 Democratic nominee ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2020-07-15; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-07-16.
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Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars ( 19% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-01-01.
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Javascript is still the dominant programming language in browsers by 2030 ( 78% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-12-31.
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Trump wins a second term in office ( 48% confidence; 29 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-06-05; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by avi on 2020-11-07.
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Donald Trump is still president ( 82% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by Coagulopath on 2019-02-13; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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I will read one book per month until the end of 2019 (regardless of book length). ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by avi on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by avi on 2019-02-13.
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Britain will have a second referendum on “Brexit.” ( 18% confidence; 19 wagers )
Created by balfours_ghost on 2018-12-11; known on 2019-03-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-04-24.
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Tumblr will revert the decision to ban pornography (to take effect in Dec 17) in the next 3 months. ( 33% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jazzsolo on 2018-12-03; known on 2019-03-03; judged wrong by jazzsolo on 2019-03-04.
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A restaurant will be serving cultured meat by 2021 ( 69% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lukefreeman on 2018-08-28; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by lukefreeman on 2021-01-05.
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SpaceX will land people on Mars prior to 2030 ( 45% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukefreeman on 2018-08-28; known on 2030-01-01.
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Trump will not be re-elected in 2020 ( 58% confidence; 18 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by SeriousPod on 2018-08-02; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by avi on 2020-11-07.
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Donald Trump will be reelected. ( 44% confidence; 22 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by alvastarr on 2018-07-26; known on 2020-11-05; judged wrong by avi on 2020-11-07.
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Tesla goes bankrupt sometime before 01/01/2020. ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by FestiveBleak on 2018-07-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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SITSA Act is signed into law. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by avi on 2018-06-17; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Dapple on 2019-01-02.
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Russia will win the world cup ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by max on 2018-06-15; known on 2018-07-16; judged wrong by max on 2018-07-11.
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My relationship with my girlfriend lasts at least until the end of 2018 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by avi on 2018-06-12; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by avi on 2018-08-13.
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Iran to win the World Cup ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-20; known on 2018-07-16; judged wrong by Cato on 2018-07-16.
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Germany to win the World Cup ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-20; known on 2019-07-16; judged wrong by Cato on 2018-07-16.
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Issa will get a PhD ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2018-05-12; known on 2035-01-01.
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Donald Trump will renew the Iran deal on May 12. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-06; known on 2018-05-13; judged wrong by davatk on 2018-05-08.
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Taiwan will declare independence in 2018. ( 1% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un will meet in 2018. ( 78% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by avi on 2018-06-12.
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Trump wins Nobel ( 10% confidence; 41 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2018-05-03; known on 2030-01-01.
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North Korea explodes a nuclear missile outside of internationally recognized North Korean territory ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
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Trump does not get impeached in 2018 ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
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Trumps approval rating never dips below 30% in 2018 ( 84% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
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Trump is president at years end ( 91% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
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Trump meets Kim ( 72% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by playablecharacter on 2018-03-09; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-06-12.
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Ethan will move out by the end of 2018 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by avi on 2018-01-27; known on 2019-01-02; judged right by avi on 2019-01-02.
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Oprah Winfrey will run for president in 2020. ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by iCrown on 2018-02-26; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2020-11-01.
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My baby will be walking independently by age 18 months ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by taryneast on 2018-02-23; known on 2018-09-21; judged right by taryneast on 2018-10-10.
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Politics, US – Deal struck before 5th of March 2018 that curbs family reunification and provides “Dreamers” with protection from deportation or a path to such. ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-02-10; known on 2018-03-05; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-03-05.
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Israeli troops on the ground in foreign country (not Gaza or West Bank) by end of 2018 ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2018-02-10; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2019-01-01.
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North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022 ( 5% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2018-01-19; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2022-01-01.
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We will go to war with North Korea ( 17% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Gibs on 2017-11-12; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by futurulus on 2018-07-01.
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Elizabeth Warren will be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020 ( 11% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sjy on 2017-07-23; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-07-31.
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Indonesia will devolve into a full-fledged islamic theocracy or decay into civil war-torn provinces largely dominated by Sharia law till the end of Ramadan 2019. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Neonblitz on 2017-05-23; known on 2019-06-04; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-07-09.
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Avi gets a bachelor's degree from UW ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-04-08; known on 2030-01-01.
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Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2018 ( 82% confidence; 52 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2017-03-31; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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In five years, 80% of the smartphones worldwide will come from Chinese companies or Chinese acquired companies. ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by danpop on 2015-11-06; known on 2020-11-06; judged wrong by avi on 2020-11-07.