Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 57% | 66% | 75% | 87% | 95% | 98% | |
Sample Size | 21 | 29 | 24 | 23 | 84 | 44 | 225 |
Displaying all predictions made by kuudes. Filter by:
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Larry Summers won't be Fed Chairman in 2014 ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-06; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2014-12-18.
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Assuming dems hold Senate in 2012, republicans retake Senate in 2014 mid term elections ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-06; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by kuudes on 2014-11-05.
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New Star Wars movie out before end of 2015 ( 71% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-02; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by kuudes on 2015-12-16.
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By the end of 2014, the market for virtual reality headsets will exceed a million units. ( 23% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Aticper on 2012-10-24; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.
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Copper prices to fall by >=50% in 3 years. —Michael Pettis ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-16; known on 2015-09-16; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-09-17.
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By the end of 2015, Windows Phone 8 (including successors based on it) will not have as much as 10% of market share, measured as either number of active phones or phones+tablets. ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by scav on 2012-08-02; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-31.
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Manmohan Singh will be reelected as prime minister of India in 2014 ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by chimpsky on 2012-06-07; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.
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Human whole-genome sequencing <=$1000 by 2020. ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-28; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2016-01-06.
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Copyright ruled unconstitutional by a US court before 2016. ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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The EU will essentially break up into groups of countries with different worldviews within the next 3 years. Prediction date 2nd November, 2011. ( 10% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Fledi on 2011-11-02; known on 2014-11-02; judged wrong by mad on 2014-11-02.
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'Queen Elizabeth II becomes the longest reigning monarch in British history' ( 89% confidence; 27 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2015-09-10; judged right by kuudes on 2015-09-09.
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Clojure becomes dominant JVM language on GitHub ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jach on 2011-08-18; known on 2016-10-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-16.
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“Any country currently using the Euro to announce their intention to drop it midnight ET 31 Dec 2014” —Intrade ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-12-31.
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'NASA to announce discovery of extraterrestrial life before midnight ET 31 Dec 2014' —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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Mad Max 4 will be released by Christmas 2014 ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-14; known on 2014-12-25; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-25.
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'As for [Korean] reunification, I see it in the next five years.' —B.R. Myers ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-26; known on 2016-02-23; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-23.
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'bitcoins will be unobtainable or obtainable for less than 1 cents (2010 dollars)/btc on 24 February 2021' —ivan ( 45% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-24; known on 2021-02-25; judged wrong by gwern on 2021-02-25.
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Intrade will close/merge/be sold by 2015. ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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23andMe will offer >=550k SNP genotyping for <=$100 during 2014. ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-19; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-12-31.
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The spot price of NYMEX crude oil will be $100/barrel or higher on December 31, 2015. ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by dakyne on 2010-05-11; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-31.