Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 100% | 67% | 67% | 78% | 100% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 2 | 31 |
Displaying all predictions made by chimpsky. Filter by:
-
Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
-
In 2012 oil prices will reach $130+ a barrel. ( 56% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by M3 on 2011-11-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-01-06.
-
Neither the Republican Candidate for President nor the Democratic Candidate for President will win Arizona in 2012. ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-13; known on 2012-12-01; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-11-07.
-
The Democratic Candidate for President will win Arizona in 2012. ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-13; known on 2012-12-01; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-11-07.
-
The Republican Candidate for President will win Arizona in 2012. ( 80% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-13; known on 2012-12-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
-
Usain Bolt breaks previous 100m world record during 2012 Olympics ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by chimpsky on 2012-06-12; known on 2012-08-05; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-08-13.
-
Tuvalu will have fewer than 1000 year-round inhabitants by 2062. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-06-12; known on 2062-01-01.
-
Greece will exit the euro within the next 2 months ( 21% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Michael Stevens on 2012-06-11; known on 2012-08-11; judged wrong by Michael Stevens on 2012-08-11.
-
Nadal wins the 2012 French Open ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by chimpsky on 2012-06-10; known on 2012-06-10; judged right by chimpsky on 2012-06-11.
-
F. Castro outlives Thatcher ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by chimpsky on 2012-06-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-04-08.
-
Scotland will vote in favour of independence in the 2014 referendum ( 28% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by chimpsky on 2012-06-07; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
-
An earthquake >8 on Richter scale occurs in California in June 2012 ( 0% confidence )
Created by chimpsky on 2012-06-07; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-24.
-
The United States reestablishes its embassy in Tehran by the end of 2012 ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by chimpsky on 2012-06-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-01-03.
-
Manmohan Singh will be reelected as prime minister of India in 2014 ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by chimpsky on 2012-06-07; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.
-
Holland will win Euro 2012 ( 12% confidence )
Created by chimpsky on 2012-06-07; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by ArisKatsaris on 2012-06-29.
-
England will win Euro 2012 ( 6% confidence )
Created by chimpsky on 2012-06-07; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by ArisKatsaris on 2012-06-29.
-
Spain will win Euro 2012 ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by chimpsky on 2012-06-07; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by chemotaxis101 on 2012-07-02.
-
Germany will win Euro 2012 ( 18% confidence )
Created by chimpsky on 2012-06-07; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by ArisKatsaris on 2012-06-29.
-
Mubarak will have passed away by mid 2013 ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-06-07; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by holycow81 on 2013-06-09.
-
The “Rapture” will not occur by the end of 2050. ( 99% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by davidiach on 2012-06-06; known on 2050-12-31.
-
Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021 ( 21% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-29; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
-
Facebook won't buy Opera (the browser) in 2012 ( 77% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-26; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.
-
Jeb Bush will be Mitt Romney's VP pick ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-24; known on 2012-09-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-11.
-
Nosek’s project to replicate findings from three major psychology journals will find that >=60% of them are failed replications ( 43% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by lweismantel on 2012-04-19; known on 2013-04-01; judged right by hedges on 2015-05-01.
-
Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal will play a 5-set match this sunday (Australian Open: men's final). ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2012-01-28; known on 2012-01-29; judged right by chimpsky on 2012-06-10.
-
Bashar al-Assad will not be president of Syria on Dec 31 2012 ( 36% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by georgesdelatour on 2012-01-01; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
-
GJP: #1040 Will Aleksandr Lukashenko remain president of Belarus through 30 June 2012? ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-07-01.
-
“[Hillary] Clinton will be Obama's running mate” ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-10; known on 2012-09-03; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-03.
-
Greece will leave the Euro currency and return to the “Drachme” latest by mid 2012. ( 20% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by herb on 2011-11-29; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by Michael Stevens on 2012-07-01.
-
The British High Court will rule in favor of the journal Nature in the libel case brought against it by Professor Mohamed El Naschie. ( 82% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jason on 2011-11-15; known on 2012-06-30; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-09.
-
'Queen Elizabeth II becomes the longest reigning monarch in British history' ( 89% confidence; 27 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2015-09-10; judged right by kuudes on 2015-09-09.
-
“USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before midnight ET 30 Jun 2012” —Intrade ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-07-01.
-
In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older. ( 26% confidence; 25 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-17; known on 2070-12-31.