Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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I do the M1 exam this year ( 25% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-08; known on 2015-06-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-08-16.
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Someone in FM does the M1 exam this year. ( 40% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-08; known on 2015-06-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-08-16.
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I will get my full deposit back from my current landlord ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-09-01; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-08-16.
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I will finish the Couch to 5K program inside of the next 3 weeks (given I'm now about to begin week 7 again, and I have family arriving in two weeks) ( 80% confidence )
Created by taryneast on 2015-07-30; known on 2015-08-20; judged right by taryneast on 2015-08-15.
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I will visit the top of the Rockefeller Center tonight ( 75% confidence )
Created by Nikolas on 2015-07-31; known on 2015-08-01; judged right by Nikolas on 2015-08-14.
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I will finish at least one textbook in the next two weeks ( 10% confidence )
Created by Nikolas on 2015-07-28; known on 2015-08-14; judged wrong by Nikolas on 2015-08-14.
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I won't get hit by a bus today. ( 99% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-12; known on 2015-08-13; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-13.
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Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee for President in 2016. ( 52% confidence; 88 wagers; 55 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-14; known on 2016-07-20; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-13.
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Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee for President in 2016. ( 52% confidence; 88 wagers; 55 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-14; known on 2016-07-20; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-13.
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Greece will default on it's sovereign debt, or exit the Eurozone (possibly both) ( 65% confidence; 19 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Afforess on 2015-11-12.
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The STM will have the Du Collège escalator back in service in July 2015. ( 12% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by DaFranker on 2015-07-08; known on 2015-08-01; judged wrong by DaFranker on 2015-08-10.
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“Five years from now on the web for free you’ll be able to find the best lectures in the world. It will be better than any single university.” —Bill Gates ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-07; known on 2015-08-06; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-30.
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Vinay Deolalikar's proof of P≠NP will not be accepted by the Clay Mathematics Institute. ( 97% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-09; known on 2015-08-09; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-09.
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“Five years from now on the web for free you’ll be able to find the best lectures in the world. It will be better than any single university.” —Bill Gates ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-07; known on 2015-08-06; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-30.
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James Eagan Holmes, known perpetrator of the 2012 theater massacre in Aurora, CO, will be found not guilty by reason of insanity. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged wrong by btrettel on 2015-08-07.
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Should James Eagan Holmes be found guilty, he will be sentenced capital punishment. ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-28; known on 2015-10-29; judged wrong by btrettel on 2015-08-07.
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Finish Superintelligence today. ( 98% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2015-08-06; known on 2015-08-07; judged right by ZeitPolizei on 2015-08-06.
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WIndows 10 installation will succeed on next try. ( 35% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2015-08-06; known on 2015-08-07; judged right by ZeitPolizei on 2015-08-06.
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'The Internet has a greater reach than television' by/during 2014 (America) ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by supinf on 2015-08-05.
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It'll take me less than two months to learn high school economics and business studies. ( 50% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-03; known on 2015-08-05; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-08-05.
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By, or around the time the next expansion for Hearthstone is released, Blizzard will fulfill at least one of the following four community's wishes (clarification in comments). ( 36% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by timujin on 2015-05-26; known on 2016-07-01; judged right by timujin on 2015-08-05.
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In one year, my room will contain no kumquats. ( 99% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-04; known on 2015-08-04; judged right by Ham Nox on 2015-08-05.
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Puerto Rico will default this year. Puerto Rican government is $73 billion in debt, similar debt to New York — a very large state economy — but it only has the population of Connecticut. ( 100% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-07; known on 2015-12-27; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-08-04.
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A discovery that diseases can be transmitted or transferred by pure thought from one location to another will be found in 2014. ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2015-08-03.
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I will not become paraplegic or otherwise significantly paralyzed within the next year. ( 98% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-03; known on 2015-08-03; judged right by Ham Nox on 2015-08-03.
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I'll be addicted to this site even after 1 year. ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2015-08-02; judged wrong by David on 2015-08-02.
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PredictionBook will feature a JSON API before August. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-07-24; known on 2015-08-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-08-01.
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The Revenant I just passed will table in my Magic Origins draft. ( 55% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2015-08-01; known on 2015-08-01; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2015-08-01.
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Obormot will not contact a HEMA branch in his area before the end of July. ( 65% confidence )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-06-27; known on 2015-08-01; judged right by Madplatypus on 2015-08-01.
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I will complete physics and chemistry this summer before fall semester. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-23; known on 2015-08-01; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2015-08-01.
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I will complete summer physics ii and chemistry courses with nothing lower than an A- ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-23; known on 2015-08-01; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2015-08-01.
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I will get an amusing story from my next Tinder date ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-06-05; known on 2015-07-06; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-08-01.
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My math research this summer will result in me publishing a paper. ( 80% confidence )
Created by azax1 on 2015-06-14; known on 2015-08-01; judged wrong by azax1 on 2015-08-01.
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I will throw up in the next 12 months. (Aug 1 2014 – Aug 1 2015) ( 14% confidence )
Created by spicedpiano on 2014-08-01; known on 2015-08-01; judged wrong by spicedpiano on 2015-08-01.
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Ron will not be involved in any romantic relationship in the Methods of Rationality. ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by from3004 on 2015-07-31.
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The “Bible of Shenanigans” will NOT be created by Justen Zhang and/or Kuba Stechly in a form that contains at least 50 high quality shenanigans by June 1 2015. ( 90% confidence )
Created by from3004 on 2014-11-26; known on 2015-06-01; judged right by from3004 on 2015-07-31.
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I will learn Esperanto to a conversational level by July 31st 2015. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by from3004 on 2014-10-26; known on 2015-07-31; judged wrong by from3004 on 2015-07-31.
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I'll write a prediction every day for the next week (Sat-Fri) ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Nikolas on 2015-07-25; known on 2015-07-31; judged right by Nikolas on 2015-07-31.
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Greece will cease using the Euro as its currency. ( 22% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by quanticle on 2015-07-12; known on 2015-07-31; judged wrong by quanticle on 2015-07-31.
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I will finish the Couch to 5K program inside of the next 2.5 weeks (given I'm now in week 7) ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by taryneast on 2015-07-03; known on 2015-07-21; judged wrong by taryneast on 2015-07-30.
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Will finish Mars story ( 15% confidence )
Created by LordDenton on 2015-07-26; known on 2015-07-29; judged wrong by LordDenton on 2015-07-29.
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Acabaré el libro de Grimm y empezaré y acabaré el siguiente libro ( 70% confidence )
Created by acradis on 2015-07-25; known on 2015-07-28; judged wrong by acradis on 2015-07-28.
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I will follow up with my plans for the day (Meeting, coursera and 5-min exercises) ( 90% confidence )
Created by Nikolas on 2015-07-27; known on 2015-07-28; judged wrong by Nikolas on 2015-07-28.
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I will get at least 7 wins in this mage arena run ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PurpleDango on 2015-07-25; known on 2015-07-30; judged right by PurpleDango on 2015-07-25.
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Ryan will finish the Drakon cluster (meaning that all parts are connected and there is an operating system running) by July 12 at midnight PST. ( 30% confidence )
Created by PurpleDango on 2015-07-02; known on 2015-07-13; judged wrong by PurpleDango on 2015-07-25.
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PubMed's comment system will be shut down before 2015. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-10-25; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-07-24.
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I'm using AT&T ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-07-23; known on 2015-07-23; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-07-23.
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X will not exist anymore as of 1st September 2015. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Robert on 2015-03-08; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by Robert on 2015-07-23.
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HP MOR : the bargain between Voldemort and Lily Potter on the night of his demise is actually a magical ritual which will prevent Voldemort from killing harry ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by claz on 2015-01-25; known on 2015-03-16; judged wrong by Robert on 2015-07-23.
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Meteor summer hackathon will have over 200 applications ( 65% confidence )
Created by yaliceme on 2015-07-23; known on 2015-07-24; judged wrong by yaliceme on 2015-07-23.