Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 51% | 60% | 66% | 81% | 92% | 97% | |
Sample Size | 137 | 234 | 231 | 257 | 634 | 119 | 1612 |
Displaying all predictions made by PseudonymousUser. Filter by:
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iPhone 7 has USBC ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2016-06-21; known on 2016-10-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-09-07.
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The DAO hack will result in a lawsuit (publicly known) by January 2018. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by bitbatbot on 2016-06-19; known on 2018-01-01.
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Trump goes it alone, does not appoint a VP ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-17; known on 2016-10-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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A woman will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign ( 77% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-17; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-07-23.
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Kim Jong-un was assassinated on or before 16 June 2016. ( 3% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-06-16; known on 2016-12-17; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-06-29.
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Gary Johnson will be the next elected President ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-14; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-11; known on 2056-01-01.
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United Ireland by 2020 ( 8% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-06-05; known on 2020-12-16; judged wrong by Reactionaryhistorian on 2020-10-12.
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There will be at least one presidential debate in 2016 that both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump participate in ( 86% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-04; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-09.
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Jacob Appelbaum will kill himself before 2017 ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump will be the next elected President ( 90% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-01; known on 2016-11-10; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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In Apple's iPhone announcement in 2016, at least one new iPhone will have a True Tone display ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-01; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-09-07.
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I will buy a hidpi laptop for my personal use before 2019 ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-01; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
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I will buy an HTC Vive (the version released in May 2016) before 2017 ( 2% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-01; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-31.
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Clint Eastwood Trump's VP Pick ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-28; known on 2017-01-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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I am banned from Predictionbook ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-23; known on 2021-05-22; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-02.
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I am banned from Facebook ( 23% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-23; known on 2021-05-22.
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At least one person will die before 2018 from injuries produced during a VR experience, and this will be publicly known. ( 63% confidence; 11 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-05-17; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-12-23.
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I will be promoted to a “manager” title by July 1. ( 90% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-05-13; known on 2016-07-01.
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Atlassian shares will trade for $30 by June 1 2017. ( 75% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-05-13; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by prtlmpf on 2017-07-12.
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Legitimate winning bid for George Zimmerman's PF-9 will be >= $10M USD ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-05-12; known on 2016-05-14.
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Legitimate winning bid for George Zimmerman's PF-9 will be >= $1M USD ( 95% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-05-12; known on 2016-05-14.
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I will finish Stephen's Sausage Roll before 2018 ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-04-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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I will be single on Sep 1, 2016 ( 65% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-11; known on 2016-09-02; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-02.
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Before May 2017 there will be a sub-$1000 (USD, pre-tax/shipping) VR HMD with >= 2K pixels (either direction) per eye, shipping to at least some of the general public ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-25; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-05-01.
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LambdaConf will uninvite Curtis Yarvin before the conference begins ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-24; known on 2016-05-24; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-05-24.
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If nominated, Trump will win zero electoral votes. ( 5% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-22; known on 2017-02-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-09.
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John Kasich will win the Republican nomination for President ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ChristianKl on 2016-03-16; known on 2016-08-26; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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Lee Sedol attempts suicide ( 1% confidence; 21 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-12; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Alphago will win over Lee Sedol at least 4-1 ( 81% confidence; 17 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by sole21000 on 2016-03-09; known on 2016-03-14; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-15.
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On Friday I will find the HTC Vive's low resolution significantly distracting ( 66% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-04; known on 2016-03-05; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-05.
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I will try an HTC Vive or HTC Vive Pre on Friday ( 60% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-04; known on 2016-03-05; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-05.
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@realDonaldTrump will be suspended from Twitter for a week or longer before 2017 ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-22; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-31.
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@paxdickinson will be suspended from Twitter for a week or longer before 2017 ( 53% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-22; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-04.
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Kim Jung Un ousted, assassinated, or somehow loses power of North Korea, either internally or from some international influence before year end. ( 9% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-22; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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I will not have eaten any meat intentionally for the next 30 years, starting now ( 29% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by arpanagarawal on 2016-02-21; known on 2046-02-21; judged wrong by Sahil on 2019-04-25.
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Michael Bloomberg wins the 2016 presidential election. ( 1% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-21; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Kanye West will be U.S. President-elect before 2025 ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-14; known on 2025-01-01.
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There will be at least one more gravitational wave detection announced in 2016 ( 86% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-06-15.
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Independent of the next elected president of the United States, there will not exist a wall along the 1,954 mile border shared with Mexico within 8 years of inauguration. ( 74% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-13; known on 2025-01-20.
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US will not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers. (I assume this means 100 US deaths in 2016) ( 87% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Temeraire on 2016-02-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Temeraire on 2017-01-01.
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Jim Webb to be the next elected President of the US. ( 0% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-11; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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I will switch from Emacs as my primary text editor before 2017. ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-02-10; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2017-01-01.
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When DeepDream for audio is invented, the output will cause seriously ill effects in humans like seizures. This will happen before 2020. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Houshalter on 2016-02-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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Before 2020, Chromium will go closed-source, or Google/Alphabet/Alphabet subsidiary employees will generally stop contributing code to the open-source Chromium project ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-01-01.
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I will play any of Firewatch before 2016-02-17 ( 95% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-09; known on 2016-02-17; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-17.
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Some kind of “PHP in the browser” system will overtake node.js in usage by August 4, 2016 ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-02-09; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-08.
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There will be another incident of at least one person getting struck and killed by a meteorite before 2018 ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-08; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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There will be another incident of at least one person getting struck and killed by a meteorite before 2017 ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-08; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-10.
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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2018 ( 34% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2019-06-01; judged right by Pablo on 2019-04-22.
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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020 ( 43% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2021-06-01; judged right by gwern on 2021-06-01.
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Jeb Bush will be the next President-elect ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-03; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-02-21.
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Donald Trump will shave his head any time before the general election (no GOP nomination needed) ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-01; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-11-08.
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Donald Trump's pick for VP will be a woman. (No nomination needed; withdrawn if Trump does not pick.) ( 35% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-01; known on 2016-07-18; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-16.
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Donald Trump's pick for VP will be Ivanka Trump. (No nomination needed; withdrawn if Trump does not pick.) ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-01; known on 2016-07-18; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Carly Fiorina will be the next President-elect ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-30; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-11.
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The FBI will recommend an indictment of Hillary Clinton before the 2016 general election ( 28% confidence; 19 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-30; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-05.
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OVH will set up a west coast (North America) datacenter before 2017 and rent servers/VPSes in it to the general public ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-30; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-31.
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No 2016 Presidential candidate receives a majority of Electoral votes ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-30; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally. ( 10% confidence; 17 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-29; known on 2022-12-25.
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Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus. ( 99% confidence; 23 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-29; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2023-01-01.
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AlphaGo defeats Lee Sedol in 3/5 or more games in March ( 64% confidence; 76 wagers; 39 comments )
Created by Jach on 2016-01-28; known on 2016-04-01; judged right by Jach on 2016-03-12.
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SpaceX successfully launches a reused rocket in 2016. (Payload reaches outer space, i.e. 100km) ( 67% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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No terrorist attack in the in the US will kill > 100 people in 2016 ( 88% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Ben Carson will be the next President-elect ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-28; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Rubio mops up on Super Tuesday, taking more than 60% of the primaries. ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-01-27; known on 2016-03-03; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-03-03.
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2016 Election is Clinton vs Rubio. ( 12% confidence; 22 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-01-27; known on 2016-10-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-10-01.
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Ubuntu 16.04 (or 16.03-5 if need be) released, with gcc 5, won't immediately be unusable colossal failure ( 83% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-24; known on 2016-07-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-04-21.
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Michael Bloomberg will be the next President-elect ( 2% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-24; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Michael Bloomberg will announce that he is entering the 2016 Presidential race as an independent candidate ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-24; known on 2016-03-14; judged wrong by Afforess on 2016-03-08.
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In a survey of at least 30 people around 18-22, greater than 50% will find X more attractive than Y ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-30; known on 2015-07-01.
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The S&P 500 will go below 1814 by February 1, 2016 ( 33% confidence; 22 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-21; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-02.
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Hillary will win the democratic nomination. ( 79% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NobodySpecial on 2016-01-20; known on 2016-07-28; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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Jonathan Blow's The Witness will be released to the general public for at least one platform in January 2016 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-19; known on 2016-02-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-26.
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Donald Trump's pick for VP will be Martha McSally. (No nomination needed; withdrawn if Trump does not pick.) ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-18; known on 2016-07-18; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Donald Trump will win the 2016 Republican Primary in New Hampshire. ( 58% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-02-10; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-10.
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Ted Cruz will win the 2016 Republican Caucus in Iowa ( 45% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-02-02; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-02.
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Donald Trump will win the 2016 Republican Caucus in Iowa ( 43% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-02-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-02.
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Any EU member state declares war against other EU member state during this prediction. (wars from archives don't count, has to be new declaration of war) ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers; 16 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-01.
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I will not talk on freenode until 2016-01-15 12:00 UTC ( 99% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-14; known on 2016-01-15; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-15.
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China will fall into disorder and civil war by the end of 2017 ( 6% confidence; 21 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by chinawillfall on 2016-01-13; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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The Chinese economy will completely collapse by 2017. ( 7% confidence; 20 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by chinawillfall on 2016-01-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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SpaceX to recover first stage of an orbital rocket after ocean barge landing in first half of 2016 ( 71% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by mortehu on 2016-01-11; known on 2016-07-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-04-08.
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Computers will beat the best humans at Go before 2017 ( 54% confidence; 21 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Houshalter on 2016-01-11; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Houshalter on 2016-03-15.
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Sean Penn will end up killed in gang-related violence. ( 13% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-11; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2021-10-13.
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Gentoo will remain my primary OS over the next decade ( 57% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jach on 2016-01-10; known on 2026-01-10.
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Joaquín Guzmán Loera (El Chapo) will escape from prison again before 2020 ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders – sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy… – in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications. ( 34% confidence; 18 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2016-01-08; known on 2026-12-31.
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Donald Trump's pick for VP will be Ted Cruz. (No nomination needed; withdrawn if Trump does not pick.) ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-08; known on 2016-07-18; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-15.
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[deleted] Donald Trump's pick for VP will be Ted Cruz ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-08; known on 2016-07-18.
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I will switch away from Sublime Text as my primary editor before 2017 ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-08; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-01.
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Bitcoin will reach at least 600 USD for at least 24 hours on at least 2 major exchanges at some point in 2016 ( 47% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Afforess on 2016-01-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by mortehu on 2016-06-25.
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Angela Merkel will serve another term as chancellor of Germany ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by phreeza on 2016-01-07; known on 2017-10-16; judged right by iCrown on 2017-09-25.
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I will not watch any more of The Expanse before 2016-02-09 ( 95% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-06; known on 2016-02-10; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-09.
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HTC will ship a desktop-PC VR HMD to the general public before 2017 ( 91% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-08-14.
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jokeocracy will be banned from twitter for a week or longer, before 2017 ( 66% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-06.
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I will read at least 36 books in 2016. ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-01-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2017-01-02.
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I will write 3,000+ lines of Rust in 2016 ( 47% confidence; 6 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-31.
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I will play at least some of The Witness before 2017 ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-31.
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I will buy a VR HMD before 2017 ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-31.