Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 33% | 38% | 53% | 92% | 96% | 94% | |
Sample Size | 3 | 8 | 17 | 26 | 45 | 17 | 116 |
Displaying all predictions made by Ken. Filter by:
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“Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.” ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2018-01-31; judged right by amadeu on 2019-04-30.
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Someone will find an exception-throwing bug in one of the 5000 lines of the PredictionBook source code that I just deployed in the first week. ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mike on 2016-05-26; known on 2016-06-02; judged right by Mike on 2016-05-28.
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At least one person will die before 2018 from injuries produced during a VR experience, and this will be publicly known. ( 63% confidence; 11 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-05-17; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-12-23.
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Humanity still a thing in 2036 ( 89% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-13; known on 2036-12-31.
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CLEGANEBOWL ( 54% confidence; 8 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-05-09; known on 2016-07-04; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-06-27.
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To “prove” he is Satoshi, Craig Wright will move early bitcoins that were mined in 2009, but that are not clearly Satoshi's ie block 12 or later. ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mrmrpotatohead on 2016-05-04; known on 2016-05-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-01.
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Bernie will remain in the race through the District of Columbia primary. ( 44% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-06-14; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-06-14.
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Bernie will drop out before California primary. ( 25% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-06-07; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2016-06-08.
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Donald Trump's pick for VP will be a woman. (No nomination needed; withdrawn if Trump does not pick.) ( 35% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-01; known on 2016-07-18; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-16.
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The United Kingdom's referendum will vote to stay in the European Union. ( 61% confidence; 40 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by sdr on 2015-06-27; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ejlflop on 2016-06-24.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky will start writing at least one new fanfic widely available (such as on fanfic.net) before July 15, 2016. (By start I mean at least chapter available). ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-23; known on 2016-07-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-07-16.
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HP MoR: story completed during Harry's first year of Hogwarts ( 73% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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Dorian S. Nakamoto is the Satoshi Nakamoto. (Nobody will prove / find really compelling evidence as to why Dorian is not Satoshi in 2014) ( 31% confidence; 27 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by Tenoke on 2014-03-06; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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Dogecoin's market cap will surpass Litecoin's during 2014 ( 45% confidence; 16 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2014-02-13; known on 2015-01-03; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ( 54% confidence; 42 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by ZLM on 2014-02-10; known on 2025-01-01; judged unknown by lavalamp on 2014-08-21.
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Google will include Bitcoin in the list of currencies that you can automatically convert through the search bar in 2014. ( 39% confidence; 23 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tenoke on 2014-01-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by adbge on 2014-07-30.
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Slate Star Codex will get more hits in 2014 than in 2013. ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-01-10.
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A different cryptocurrency beats Bitcoin in market cap at some point during the year. ( 7% confidence; 31 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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Nick Szabo is the real Satoshi Nakamoto ( 19% confidence; 30 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-12-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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iPhone 6's will have a larger screen than iPhone 5's. ( 55% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by eren on 2013-12-04; known on 2014-12-16; judged right by eren on 2014-09-20.
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The Pope will be assassinated. ( 2% confidence; 35 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-11-28; known on 2028-11-28.
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Bitcoin suffers a crash by the end of 2014, defined as falling to below 20% of its all-time high. (prediction inspired by http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1qvbzk/bloomberg_us_agencies_to_say_bitcoins_offer/cdh3ty2 ) ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-20; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 USA election. ( 43% confidence; 38 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2013-11-11; known on 2016-11-30; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Republicans to gain control of the Senate at the next midterm election. ( 42% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-10-02; known on 2015-01-05; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-05.
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Jeff Bezos will use his influence as owner of the Washington Post to run for Senate by 2020 ( 11% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by workbean on 2013-08-06; known on 2020-01-16; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-17.
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Before 2023, Charlie Stross will write and publish a novel that features a Roko's Basilisk-like plot device ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by halfwit on 2013-06-14; known on 2023-06-14.
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Dropbox will move off of Amazon S3 before they go public or before 2015 ( 49% confidence; 8 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by workbean on 2013-06-01; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by quanticle on 2016-03-16.
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Google will survive for five more years ( 97% confidence; 38 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-05-19; known on 2018-05-19; judged right by NancyLebovitz on 2018-05-19.
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The US deficit will not fall below $300 billion at any point in the second term of President Obama. ( 74% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by elmerfudd1 on 2013-05-16; known on 2016-11-11; judged right by elmerfudd1 on 2016-11-15.
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US government will indicts MtGox or its officers on criminal charges. ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kiba on 2013-05-15; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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Conditioned on his political affiliation being outed before the year 2024, Mark Zuckerberg will be outed as a Republican ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-09; known on 2024-01-01.
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Kickstarter will ban at least one high profile DYI synthetic organism project by 2015 ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by phreeza on 2015-01-08.
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Conditional on civilization not collapsing, emulations will be developed sometime between 25 and 150 years from now. — Robin Hanson ( 75% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Pablo on 2013-05-06; known on 2162-01-01.
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Google Chrome browser will survive 5 years ( 93% confidence; 27 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Search will survive 5 years ( 98% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-03; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google+ will survive 5 more years ( 60% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Gmail will survive 5 more years ( 95% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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A nuclear disaster equal to or worse than Fukushima will happen this year. ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers )
Created by hedges on 2013-04-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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Average global temperature for 2013 to be higher than for 2012. ( 56% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-03-13; known on 2014-01-15; judged right by simplicio on 2014-01-15.
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2013: Chinese household consumption <=35% of Chinese GDP —Michael Pettis ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-28; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2014-03-09.
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USA to begin phase-out of pennies by start of 2016. ( 12% confidence; 30 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-13; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-01-01.
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We're jumping off the Fiscal Cliff. Whee! ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-12; known on 2013-01-15.
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Obama's approval rating will exceed 55% on average for the next 12 months (Nov 12 -> Nov 13) ( 46% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-12; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-16.
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By 2020, Puerto Rico will be admitted to the Union ( 39% confidence; 18 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Nate Silver will become a public expert on climate change statistics by the year 2016 ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-08; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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The 2016 presidential election will be Jeb Bush v. Hillary Clinton. Yes, again! ( 14% confidence; 27 wagers; 16 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07; known on 2016-11-30; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-02-21.
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The US economy will be “worse” in 2016 than in 2012 (i.e. both R and D Presidential candidates will say the economy is worse) ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jach on 2012-11-07; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by Jach on 2017-01-03.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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Marijuana legalization will be a significant issue in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. ( 33% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-30; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ( 14% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-29; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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By 2025, at least one major world city will have a restaurant featuring 3D printed food. ( 69% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-25; known on 2025-01-01; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2015-03-23.
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Assuming Obama wins second term, repubs will try to impeach him sometime during the his second term ( 11% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-24; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ( 26% confidence; 15 wagers; 25 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-21; known on 2060-01-01.
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Fed: unemployment won't reach 7.5% until 2014 ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-05-03.
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By 2040, no other country will have both more active nuclear warheads and higher GDP than the United States. ( 64% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-10-02; known on 2040-01-01.
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I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years. ( 82% confidence; 15 wagers )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-29; known on 2022-09-29; judged right by lukeprog on 2022-09-29.
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Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican. ( 51% confidence; 18 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-27; known on 2116-11-05.
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Silk Road will be closed by July 1st, 2013 —BetsofBitcoin ( 19% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-25; known on 2013-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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Hillary Clinton will run for president in 2016. ( 38% confidence; 25 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2016-02-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-27.
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No functional whole brain emulation of a human will exist on Earth before 2050. ( 60% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2050-01-01.
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At least 2 billion biological humans will be alive on Earth at the beginning of 2030. ( 94% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2030-01-01.
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No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020. ( 74% confidence; 20 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032 ( 52% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-27; known on 2032-01-01.
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Iphone 5 shape is same as Iphone 4, the onlything different is the antenna will change a bit! ( 33% confidence; 13 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by nam2001 on 2011-03-02; known on 2013-03-16; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-09-18.
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“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson ( 8% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-05-19; known on 2030-01-01.
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Gold has peaked for the next 5 years (spot gold < 1900 until 1-1-2017) ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-11; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.
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Santorum won't be a top 3 candidate in 2016 republican primary (measured by returns in South Carolina primary) ( 78% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-11; known on 2016-02-15; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-15.
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HP MoR: Methods of Rationality or a derivative work wins a Hugo Award in or before 2016. ( 11% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Osuniev on 2016-11-21.
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HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2013. ( 12% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2014. ( 52% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2015. ( 58% confidence; 28 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-01-01.
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HP MoR: HPMOR will update at least twice in 2012 ( 95% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Isaac on 2012-03-16.
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By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space. ( 15% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-04-08; known on 2051-01-01.
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George Zimmerman will be convicted of murder or manslaughter for the shooting of Trayvon Martin before 2015. ( 43% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-07; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-01.
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>=$1.6m will be donated towards the Center for Modern Rationality in the next month ( 1% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-12; known on 2012-04-12; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-12.
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By 2020, a single-word term for additive fabrication technology will replace “3D printing” in the media. ( 53% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-02-03; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Leo on 2020-01-01.
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US official unemployment rate is still above 7% in December 2012. (75%) —knb ( 82% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2012-12-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-01.
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No contact with intelligent aliens be made in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 31 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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I will be murdered during my stay in Mexico City. ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-17.
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The mens' rights movement will be mentioned by name in a Time or Newsweek article sometime during 2012. ( 33% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.
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Republican 2012 nominee not Ron Paul or Gary Johnson ( 97% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-07.
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I will receive <10 items of anonymous feedback on my form. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-27; known on 2012-01-27; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-27.
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Steve Ballmer will be CEO of Microsoft at the end of 2012 ( 78% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by faws on 2011-12-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by faws on 2013-01-01.
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“Newt Gingrich to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012.” -Intrade ( 18% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-28; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-11-10.
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The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025. ( 72% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.
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Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ( 8% confidence; 31 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2035-01-01.
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Either Mitt Romney or Barack Obama will win the 2012 Presidential election. ( 91% confidence; 29 wagers )
Created by HonoreDB on 2011-11-04; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.
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Appeals court in Perugia will acquit Amanda Knox and Raffaele Sollecito of the murder of Meredith Kercher. ( 47% confidence; 11 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by komponisto on 2010-09-29; known on 2011-10-04; judged right by gwern on 2011-10-03.
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Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory. ( 4% confidence; 23 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-14; known on 2051-09-15; judged unknown by Arets Paeglis on 2011-10-10.
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A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021 ( 29% confidence; 21 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-11; known on 2021-09-10; judged wrong by muflax on 2021-09-10.
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A professional athlete will not voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041. ( 38% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-11; known on 2041-01-01.
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There will be a major terrorist attack (>= 60 deaths) between 2011-09-10 20:00 UTC and 2011-09-12 06:00 UTC anywhere in the world except Afghanistan, Pakistan, or Iraq. ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-10; known on 2011-09-12; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-12.
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AOL & Yahoo to merge by 2013. ( 43% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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GJP: the Saudi monarchy continue to rule Saudi Arabia as of March 1, 2012 ( 93% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2012-03-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-03-01.
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“King Abdullah to no longer be head of government in Saudi Arabia before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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GJP: Kim Jong-Il or his designated successor to be in charge of North Korea as of December 31, 2012 ( 86% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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“Julia Gillard to no longer be Prime Minister of Australia before midnight ET 30 Sep 2011” (excluding death) —Intrade ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-05; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-30.
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No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests) ( 82% confidence; 32 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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The Richard Dawkins article on Conservapedia will in one year have in its stable form a picture of at least one of Hitler, Stalin, or Lenin ( 81% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2012-09-04; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-09-04.
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The “Counterexamples to Relativity” page will still exist on Conservapedia in one year ( 92% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2012-09-04; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-09-04.