Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 48% | 57% | 67% | 67% | 85% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 217 | 290 | 318 | 248 | 614 | 60 | 1747 |
Displaying all predictions made by tedks. Filter by:
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'Multiple Wikileaks alternatives will pop up, and pundits will start to realize that mass leaks are enabled by technology trends, not just by one freaky Australian dude.' —FtT ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-14; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-14.
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'the MacBook Air in the future (18-24 months) will switch to ARM once the >2GHz ARM processors start shipping en masse' —pkaler ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-22; known on 2012-10-21; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-21.
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Neither angelina joli nor brad pitt will die in the next 12 months ( 98% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Frank on 2010-04-18; known on 2011-07-02; judged right by Frank on 2011-07-02.