Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
-
Jace, Vryn's Prodigy will be worth at least $50 by the end of 2016. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by bshih on 2015-09-14; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by bshih on 2017-01-01.
-
SpaceX launches (defined as lifting off the ground at a scheduled launch time, otherwise no success requirement) again before the end of 2016. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2016-11-08; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-31.
-
Apple market capitalization >=$1 trillion by 2017 ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-31.
-
GTA V to be on sale for under $30 on any day during 2016 ( 51% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-31.
-
I will not watch any new episodes of Dark Matter before 2017 ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-08-31; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-31.
-
I will buy an HTC Vive (the version released in May 2016) before 2017 ( 2% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-01; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-31.
-
OVH will set up a west coast (North America) datacenter before 2017 and rent servers/VPSes in it to the general public ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-30; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-31.
-
@realDonaldTrump will be suspended from Twitter for a week or longer before 2017 ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-22; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-31.
-
I will write 3,000+ lines of Rust in 2016 ( 47% confidence; 6 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-31.
-
I will buy a VR HMD before 2017 ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-31.
-
I will meet IRL anyone found via Tinder, before 2017 ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-30; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-31.
-
2016 predictions: I will end up being underconfident on my 2016 predictions. ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
-
2016 predictions: I will complete 3 or more Kaggle competitions. ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
-
2016 predictions: I will have >365 new (resolved) predictions on PredictionBook. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
-
2016 predictions: I will run a marathon. ( 14% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
-
2016 predictions: We’ll buy a new car. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
-
2016 predictions: Sam will attend grad school. ( 35% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
-
2016 predictions: I will not identify as religious by the end of 2016. ( 98% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
-
2016 predictions: I will post 5 or more blog posts. ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
-
2016 predictions: Sam will be a vegetarian, pescetarian, or vegan at the end of the year. ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
-
2016 predictions: I will be a vegan at the end of the year. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
-
2016 predictions: I will still be a vegetarian or pescetarian at the end of the year. ( 91% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
-
2016 predictions: I will end the year still living in the Boston area. ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
-
2016 predictions: I will have a baby. ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
-
http://effective-altruism.com/ea/c8/should_you_donate_to_the_wikimedia_foundation/ will be the most viewed blog post on the Effective Altruism Forum for December 2016 according to Google Analytics. ( 69% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-12-14; known on 2017-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2016-12-31.
-
Bashar Al-Assad government will control at least 50% of Syrian territory by next year. ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-12; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-12-31.
-
2016 predictions: No US politicians will be assassinated. ( 92% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-12-31.
-
2016 predictions: World War III will happen. ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-12-31.
-
tuition higher on jan 1 2016 than jan 1 2015 in canada ( 99% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-11; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-31.
-
There won't be a significant automobile virus sighting through end of 2016 ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-31.
-
“Within a decade Wal-Mart (WMT) shares cease to be listed on the NYSE as a result bankruptcy, being taken over/private, or being delisted by the exchange.” ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-12-31.
-
There will be a Israel Palestinian peace deal before the end of Obama's term. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2014-04-17; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-31.
-
Guantanamo Bay detention facility to close before year end. ( 18% confidence; 12 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-23; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-31.
-
Over 30,000 people will take the life you can save pledge by Dec 31, 2016 ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by commercecat on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-31.
-
Lucid Motors/Atieva launches a fully electric vehicle ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-20; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-31.
-
The New York times will report it confirmed that Craig Wright is Satoshi Nakamoto by 2016-12-31 ( 18% confidence; 13 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by solipsist on 2015-12-09; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by solipsist on 2016-12-31.
-
Conditional on the UK Government under Theresa May seeking to invoke Article 50 on the Lisbon Treaty, it will have to be passed through Parliament before being invoked. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by blackRust on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-12-16; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-12-31.
-
Rousey beats Amanda Nunes ( 75% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-30; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
-
Bear Market in the USA: Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 to experience at least 20% decline from peak in 2015. ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-09; known on 2016-12-25; judged wrong by mortehu on 2016-12-31.
-
DJIA will have decreased by 40% of its market price on 20 Feb 2016 to 9835 or lower at a point between 20 Feb and 31 Dec ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by xplkqlkcassia on 2016-02-20; known on 2016-12-30; judged wrong by mortehu on 2016-12-31.
-
Apple's stock price will go above $120 before January 1, 2017. ( 56% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02; known on 2017-01-02; judged wrong by mortehu on 2016-12-30.
-
Jessica won't visit me before the end of the year. ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2016-10-07; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2016-12-30.
-
At least one US Presidential candidate who is major enough to appear in one of the major Presidential debates will mention the growth of AI sometime before the Presidential election. ( 46% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by FractalHeretic on 2015-04-18; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-12-30.
-
Nuclear weapon used by India or Pakistan on military target, at least 2 casualties ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-30; known on 2016-12-30; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-12-30.
-
At some point on or before January 1, 2017, http://effective-altruism.com/ea/c8/should_you_donate_to_the_wikimedia_foundation/ will be among the five most viewed blog posts on the Effective Altruism Forum. ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-12-14; known on 2017-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2016-12-30.
-
My future will be bright and enjoyable. ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-07-21; known on 2016-12-30; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-12-29.
-
0-15 faithless electors ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-12-29.
-
Apple’s stock will be at least $138.52 according to 32 analysts. ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-13; known on 2016-12-25; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-29.
-
I will receive an amazon voucher as a present this Christmas ( 65% confidence )
Created by penten on 2016-12-21; known on 2016-12-28; judged wrong by penten on 2016-12-28.
-
I will receive an amazon voucher as a present this Christmas ( 65% confidence )
Created by penten on 2016-12-21; known on 2016-12-28; judged wrong by penten on 2016-12-28.