Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 33% | 0% | 33% | 33% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 15 |
Displaying all predictions made by ArturoGoosnargh. Filter by:
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Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee for President in 2016. ( 52% confidence; 88 wagers; 55 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-14; known on 2016-07-20; judged right by elephantower on 2016-07-16.
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Trump wins the presidential election 2016 ( 34% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by qznc on 2016-07-04; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
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Ke Jie loses to AlphaGo ( 87% confidence; 15 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-08.
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Pedro Sánchez will be the next President of the Government of Spain ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ArturoGoosnargh on 2015-12-25; known on 2016-03-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-08-05.
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U.S will experience a recession before 2019 according to FRED data ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ArturoGoosnargh on 2015-12-01; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2019-05-21.
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Within 25 years, a state with UN representation will exist whose territory incorporates portions of both Iran and Syria. ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-11-16; known on 2040-01-01.
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Fraction of U.S GDP devoted to computer and electronics hardware will be higher than 5%(from 1.5% now) by 2025 according to BEA data ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ArturoGoosnargh on 2015-09-17; known on 2025-01-24.
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Donald Trump to be the next elected President of the United Stated. ( 21% confidence; 53 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-10; known on 2016-11-12; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-09.
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North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030 ( 19% confidence; 17 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-29; known on 2031-01-01.
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Effective US Federal Funds Rate will stay below 0.25% at least until 2016 ( 75% confidence )
Created by ArturoGoosnargh on 2015-07-29; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by ArturoGoosnargh on 2015-12-25.
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“Some p2p cryptocurrency is going to become THE world reserve currency this decade” – Jacob Cannell ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2021-01-01.
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Bitcoin will collapse as a currency by 2030 ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2031-01-01.
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Titan to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2099-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2099-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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Europa to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2099-01-01.
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I'll write a prediction every day for the next week (Sat-Fri) ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Nikolas on 2015-07-25; known on 2015-07-31; judged right by Nikolas on 2015-07-31.
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Hare una prediccion cada dia (una semana) ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by acradis on 2015-07-25; known on 2015-08-01; judged wrong by ArturoGoosnargh on 2015-09-17.
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Assuming that this environment is not a simulation, humanity will not observe strong evidence for the existence of a technological alien (i.e. independently evolved) civilization before the minimum of {end of 2055, implementation of superintelligence}. ( 86% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sh on 2015-07-20; known on 2056-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ( 54% confidence; 42 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by ZLM on 2014-02-10; known on 2025-01-01; judged unknown by lavalamp on 2014-08-21.
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Zerocoin functionality incorporated into Bitcoin within 5 years ( 29% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-22; known on 2018-11-22; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-11-23.