Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 66% | 55% | 64% | 79% | 92% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 62 | 76 | 58 | 62 | 98 | 24 | 380 |
Displaying all predictions made by splorridge. Filter by:
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Mark Zuckerberg will run in the 2024 USA presidential elections. ( 9% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-14; known on 2023-08-16; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-31.
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The Brexit Party to win the most seats in the next UK General Election ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-06-02; known on 2022-05-06; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-25.
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Boris Johnson to become Prime Minister by the next Conservative Party conference ( 53% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-05-19; known on 2019-09-29; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-08-23.
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The Independent Group (TIG), or its successor party, to win more than 10 seats in a 2019 general election ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-03-08; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-30.
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The UK to leave the EU without a deal on 29 March ( 14% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-03-30; judged wrong by 6thNapoleon on 2019-03-30.
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No Brexit by EOY 2019 ( 37% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by waveman on 2019-03-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by waveman on 2020-01-01.
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[Politics] Theresa May to lose a vote of no confidence in 2019 H1 ( 32% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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“May still in power” ( 38% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2019-08-31.
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“Britain holds second Brexit referendum” ( 22% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-01-01.
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“Britain out of EU” ( 78% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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“No additional countries will adopt a universal basic income” ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-01-03.
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Britain will have a second referendum on “Brexit.” ( 18% confidence; 19 wagers )
Created by balfours_ghost on 2018-12-11; known on 2019-03-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-04-24.
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Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX) ( 3% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Leo on 2018-10-23; known on 2028-10-23.
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The first 1-year period in which at least 10 people will have lived permanently on mars will be between 2042 and 2052 ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2053-01-01.
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Humans will land on the moon between 2028 and 2033. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2034-01-01.
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Politics, UK – Theresa May is subject to a leadership challenge before 2019-01-01. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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UK politics: general election called in next two months ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2018-07-10; known on 2018-09-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-10.
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UK politics: Leadership challenge against Theresa May within the next two months ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2018-07-10; known on 2018-09-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-10.
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UK politics: Boris Johnson returns to May's cabinet in the next month ( 30% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2018-07-10; known on 2018-08-10; judged wrong by bm on 2018-08-17.
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UK Politics: Another cabinet resignation this week ( 56% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2018-07-10; known on 2018-07-15; judged wrong by splorridge on 2018-07-25.
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At least one country will decide its head of state by a reality show with real time votes by 2050 ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by volis on 2018-01-11; known on 2050-01-01.
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Theresa May UK PM throughout 2018 ( 63% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2018-01-09; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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I will drop out of my PhD in 2018 ( 2% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2018-01-09; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2019-01-16.
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Still in a relationship with E by end of 2018 ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2018-01-09; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2018-12-12.
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E and I will break up before planned holiday together in July ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2018-01-09; known on 2018-07-28; judged wrong by splorridge on 2018-08-28.
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I will consider myself vegan at any point in 2018 ( 30% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2018-01-09; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2019-01-16.
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I will have a major haircut in 2018 ( 10% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2018-01-09; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2019-01-16.
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Jeremy Corbyn will become PM by 2022. ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by missbethann on 2017-10-26; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2023-01-05.
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Connor McGregor will lose against Floyd Mayweather ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by liamesteban on 2017-08-14; known on 2017-08-26; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-08-27.
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Politics, UK – Theresa May is leader of the Conservative Party at the start of the 9th of August. ( 75% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-08; known on 2017-08-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-09.
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Politics, UK – Labour amendment to 2017 Queen's Speech relating to the public sector pay cap passes ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-28; known on 2017-06-30; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-29.
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Politics, UK – Theresa May resigns before the end of the 9th of June 2017. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-08; known on 2017-06-10; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-10.
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Rey was a child trained at Luke's Jedi Academy. ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-01; known on 2018-06-02; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2017-12-21.
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Rey is a Kenobi ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-01; known on 2018-06-02; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2017-12-21.
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Rey is a child of Luke Skywalker ( 45% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-01; known on 2018-06-02; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2017-12-21.
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Rey is a reincarnated Anakin Skywalker ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-01; known on 2018-06-02; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2017-12-21.
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The Tory party will win the UK election with a majority. ( 74% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lauragonzalez on 2017-05-23; known on 2017-06-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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2017 UK general election – Bath constituency: >= 30% vote for Liberal Democrat MP ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by penten on 2017-05-17; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by splorridge on 2017-06-09.
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2017 UK general election – North East Somerset constituency elects conservative MP ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by penten on 2017-05-17; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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2017 UK general election – Bath constituency elects conservative MP ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by penten on 2017-05-17; known on 2017-06-09; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-06-09.
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Labour will win in Cambridge ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-05-09; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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Labour will win in Midlothian ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-05-09; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by splorridge on 2017-06-09.
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Labour will win in Nottingham South. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-05-09; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by splorridge on 2017-06-09.
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Labour will win in Nottingham East. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-05-09; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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Labour will win in Nottingham North. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-05-09; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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Emmanuel Macron will be elected the next President of France. ( 77% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-23; known on 2017-05-08; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-05-07.
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Politics, UK – A new Labour leadership election is announced before the end of June 2017. ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-19; known on 2017-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-07-01.
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Politics, UK – Theresa May attends a TV debate with one or more leaders of other parties before the next UK General Election. ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-19; known on 2017-06-09; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-09.
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10 or fewer political parties win seats in the 2017 UK election ( 54% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-19; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by penten on 2017-06-09.
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The UK snap general election results in a hung parliment ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by penten on 2017-04-19; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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The Scottish National Party will win at least 50 seats in the snap General Election. ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-04-18; known on 2017-06-09; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-06-09.
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The Scottish National Party will win the same number of seats as in 2015. ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2017-04-18; known on 2017-06-09; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-06-09.
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The UK Liberal Democratic party will gain seats as a result of the general election on 8th June ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2017-04-18; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by penten on 2017-06-09.
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The UK Labour Party will lose seats as a result of the general election on 8th June ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-04-18; known on 2017-06-09; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-06-09.
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The UK Conservative Party will increase its majority in parliament as a result of the general election on 8th June. ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-04-18; known on 2017-06-09; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-06-09.
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Residents of Cloister House will be able to return today ( 54% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2017-04-05; known on 2017-04-06; judged right by splorridge on 2017-04-06.
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I will be able to pull up 50% of my body weight by the end of October ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-03-10; known on 2017-10-31; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-11-07.
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I will be able to do a one armed pull up by the end of October ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-03-10; known on 2017-10-31; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-11-07.
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I will be able to do a muscle up by end of October ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2017-03-10; known on 2017-10-31; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-11-07.
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At least one Trump solo press conference in March 2017. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-02; known on 2017-04-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-04-01.
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SpaceX will fly a mission with crew around the moon by end of 2018. ( 29% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by trishume on 2017-02-28; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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UKIP will win the Stoke-on-Trent by-election ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by elephantower on 2017-02-16; known on 2017-03-09; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-02-24.
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Trump will win a second term ( 46% confidence; 74 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2020-11-08; judged wrong by regex on 2020-11-20.
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The 2020 presidential election will be Donald Trump v. Oprah Winfrey. ( 3% confidence; 25 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2017-01-16; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
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Mark Zuckerberg will win the 2024 USA presidential elections. ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-14; known on 2024-10-16.
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Mark Zuckerberg will win the 2020 USA presidential elections. ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-14; known on 2020-10-16; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
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Mark Zuckerberg will run in the 2020 USA presidential elections. ( 9% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-14; known on 2019-08-16; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2019-08-16.
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Luminiferous Aether Theory turned out to be correct after all, big screw up/coverup dating to Michelson–Morley ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-13; known on 2047-01-01.
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Donald Trump’s approval rating at the end of 2017 is lower than forty percent ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Donald Trump’s approval rating at the end of 2017 is lower than fifty percent ( 83% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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No race riot in the US killing > 5 people in 2017 ( 66% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
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US does not withdraw from large trade org like WTO or NAFTA in 2017 ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by imaxwell on 2018-01-02.
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US unemployment to be higher at end of 2017 than beginning ( 35% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-03-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-03-09.
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US GDP growth lower in 2017 than in 2016 ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-03-01; judged wrong by asdfjklasdfjkl on 2018-03-01.
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No serious impeachment proceedings are active against Trump at the end of 2017 ( 82% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2017 ( 93% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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Fewer refugees admitted to Europe in 2017 than 2016 ( 72% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-02-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2018-02-01.
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Theresa May remains PM of Britain through 2017 ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-02.
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Marine Le Pen is not elected President of France, conditional on her running ( 63% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2017-05-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-05-07.
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The UK triggers Article 50 in 2017 ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-01.
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Germany does not declare plan to leave EU in 2017 ( 90% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
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France does not declare plan to leave EU in 2017 ( 83% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
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A significant number of skeptics will not become convinced EMDrive works in 2017 ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
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ISIS will not continue to exist as a state entity in Iraq/Syria by the end of 2017 ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
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Syria’s civil war will not end during 2017 ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
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Situation in Israel looks more worse than better at the end of 2017 ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-11.
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Assad will remain President of Syria throughout 2017 ( 78% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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Self driving vehicle (level 4) drives legally on public UK roads before end 2017 ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-09-29; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2018-01-11.
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Self driving vehicle (level 4) drives legally on public UK roads before end 2019 ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by penten on 2016-09-29; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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Yahoo will cease to exist by 2026 ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-05; known on 2026-01-01.
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Polygamy is legal in the UK (ie. Marriages between more than two people are permitted to take place within the country) ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by penten on 2017-01-03; known on 2037-01-03.
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I will consider myself vegan at any point in 2017 ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2018-01-02.
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I will read every new SSC in 2017 ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2018-01-02.
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I will read every new xkcd in 2017 ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2018-01-02.
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I will complete my current music project in 2017 ( 46% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2018-01-02.
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I will go on dates with >5 people in 2017 ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2018-01-02.
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I will consider myself “in a relationship” at any point in 2017 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2017-04-03.
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I will be able to (reasonably consistently) beat AoE2HD AI 1v1 on hardest difficulty setting at any point in 2017 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2017-09-19.
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I will be asking people to use gender-neutral pronouns for me by the end of 2017 ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2018-01-02.
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I will consider myself to be “a person who drinks alcohol” at any point in 2017 ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.