Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 0% | 67% | 50% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
Displaying all predictions made by ZrCa. Filter by:
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weirderweb.com will get a book deal. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ZrCa on 2013-02-12; known on 2014-07-01; judged wrong by John Maxwell IV on 2014-07-01.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be make Dumbledore turn himself in to Lucius in exchange for Hermione's freedom ( 31% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be using the Time-turner in some way ( 23% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
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reddit.com/r/GEB/ will fizzle out and not finish GEB. ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ZrCa on 2011-12-28; known on 2012-07-19; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.
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Within two years, consensus will be that Edward Nelson's current attempt at demonstrating a contradiction in PA fails. ( 82% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-27; known on 2013-09-27; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-01.
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Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory. ( 4% confidence; 23 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-14; known on 2051-09-15; judged unknown by Arets Paeglis on 2011-10-10.
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“You will hear nothing about Google+ a year from now.” – Eliezer Yudkowsky (http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2722976) ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ZrCa on 2011-07-03; known on 2012-07-03; judged wrong by ZrCa on 2012-07-19.
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Tyrion will not die in A Dance With Dragons. ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ZrCa on 2011-06-29; known on 2011-08-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-21.
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There will be fewer than 64 new comics posted on http://hyperboleandahalf.blogspot.com between 1.6.2011 and 1.1.2013 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ZrCa on 2011-06-05; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-26.