Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 50% | 100% | 100% | 50% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 9 |
Displaying all predictions made by d403. Filter by:
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Lara Bingle and Michael Clarke will split up in the next three months ( 100% confidence )
Created by d403 on 2010-03-01; known on 2010-06-01; judged right by harmonix on 2010-03-16.
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Spencer Tunick will be charged with mass-scale indecent exposure ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by d403 on 2010-02-28; known on 2010-03-14; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Barack Obama will be shot by American white-supremist extremists within the next two weeks ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by d403 on 2010-02-28; known on 2010-03-14; judged wrong by Kyrisch on 2010-03-08.
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The Australian Interest rate will increase to 4.5% by the end of 2010. ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by d403 on 2010-02-28; known on 2011-01-05; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Cannabis will be legalised within Australia by 2012 ( 23% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by d403 on 2010-02-28; known on 2012-01-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-02.
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Brad Pitt will come out of the closet. ( 60% confidence )
Created by d403 on 2010-02-28; known on 2010-03-07; judged wrong by Jack on 2010-03-10.
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If Australia win the Ashes back, Ricky ponting will retire from all forms of the game. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by d403 on 2010-02-28; known on 2011-02-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-02-09.
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Peter Garret will split from Labour to form another political party within the next six months. ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by d403 on 2010-02-28; known on 2010-09-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-09-01.
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Prediction book will get some desperately needed moderation. ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jack on 2010-02-15; known on 2010-03-15; judged wrong by al3xal3x on 2010-03-18.