Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 67% | 75% | 33% | 67% | 94% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 3 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 2 | 36 |
Displaying all predictions made by Rowan93. Filter by:
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When elon musk and peter thiel personally land on mars, he unfurls a white pride flag ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-30; known on 2076-01-01.
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The United Kingdom's referendum will vote to stay in the European Union. ( 61% confidence; 40 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by sdr on 2015-06-27; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ejlflop on 2016-06-24.
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The Crowfall kickstarter will reach its “Pack Animal For Everyone” stretch goal of 14,500 backers ( 40% confidence )
Created by Rowan93 on 2015-03-21; known on 2015-03-26; judged right by davidmanheim on 2015-03-29.
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The Crowfall kickstarter will reach its “Mounts & Caravans” $1.3 million stretch goal ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Rowan93 on 2015-03-21; known on 2015-03-26; judged right by Rowan93 on 2015-03-22.
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Scott Aaronson will not make a “tearful apology” for either Comment 171 or for any related remarks that he has made as of 9 AM December 31. ( 78% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-31; known on 2015-01-25; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-25.
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Over 70% of the respondents to the effective-altruist survey will be male. http://lesswrong.com/lw/k60/2014_survey_of_effective_altruists/ ( 76% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Patrick Brinich-Langlois on 2014-05-01; known on 2014-07-01; judged right by etarletons on 2015-03-18.
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World War 3 will start by december 2014 ( 1% confidence; 29 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by refnum on 2014-03-03; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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Within one week, the LessWrong post “White Lies” will have 800 comments or more ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Vulture on 2014-02-15; known on 2014-02-22; judged right by Vulture on 2014-02-21.
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Someone will comment on this prediction and recommend me a podcast or audiobook that I don't know of, and I will listen to at least 2 episodes or chapters before 2 weeks. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-10; known on 2014-02-25; judged wrong by Mati on 2014-02-25.
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Someone without foot and with artificial legs will do under 10 seconds at the 100 meters sprint before 2041. ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-09; known on 2042-01-01.
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I am going to live for at least another 80 years ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Amélie_Roy on 2014-02-07; known on 2094-12-31.
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scientists won't have the same technology in “back to the future” in 2015 ( 98% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jeredcaleb on 2014-02-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by reubensandwich on 2015-06-28.
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There are unique 50 wagers on this prediction by April 1st, 2014. ( 69% confidence; 62 wagers; 71 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-04-02; judged right by rickyrich98 on 2014-04-02.
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Scotland votes 'yes' for independence. ( 38% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-31; known on 2014-09-19; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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2014 Less Wrong Survey will have > % female than 2013 Less Wrong Survey. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by mad on 2015-01-06.
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No nuclear weapon used in anger in 2014. ( 98% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2015-01-01.
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US government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt. ( 98% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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Bitcoin will end the year higher than $1000. ( 67% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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Construction of Hyperloop will be approved by 2020 ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Esuba on 2014-01-24; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Between now and the end of May, I will miss fewer than ten lectures ( 40% confidence )
Created by Rowan93 on 2014-01-24; known on 2014-06-01; judged wrong by Rowan93 on 2014-02-10.
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By the end of the year, I will have reached a geohash point for the Aberystwyth graticule ( 5% confidence )
Created by Rowan93 on 2014-01-24; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Rowan93 on 2015-01-01.
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I will weigh at least 80kg by the end of June ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Rowan93 on 2014-01-24; known on 2014-07-01; judged wrong by Rowan93 on 2014-07-01.
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I will pass the exams for every module I take this semester ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Rowan93 on 2014-01-24; known on 2014-08-01; judged wrong by Rowan93 on 2014-07-13.
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I will still not have blacked out from alcohol consumption by the end of this June ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Rowan93 on 2014-01-24; known on 2014-07-01; judged right by Rowan93 on 2014-07-01.
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I will still be actively using HabitRPG by June 2014 ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Rowan93 on 2014-01-24; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by Rowan93 on 2014-06-01.
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2014: No one will win $1billion from Warren Buffett by submitting a perfect NCAA pool ( 99% confidence; 16 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2014-01-23; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2014-03-27.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky will remain visibly overweight at the end of 2014. ( 71% confidence; 20 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-21; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by waveman on 2015-01-02.
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A zombie apocalypse could happen. ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Snowshi on 2014-01-20; known on 2050-01-16.
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Gangnam Style (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bZkp7q19f0) will have 2 billion views by the end of 2014. ( 82% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-20; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by dk on 2014-06-08.
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I will level up on habitrpg this week ( 93% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Duyut on 2014-01-19; known on 2014-01-26; judged right by Duyut on 2014-01-27.
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The total market cap of all non-bitcoin cryptocurrencies will beat Bitcoin's market cap at some point during the year. ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2014-01-15; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.
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One of the years 2014-2016 will be the hottest year ever. ( 60% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-15; known on 2017-02-01; judged right by waveman on 2015-02-02.
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The Pope will be assassinated. ( 2% confidence; 35 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-11-28; known on 2028-11-28.
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Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050. ( 1% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2013-11-12; known on 2051-01-01.
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Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 USA election. ( 43% confidence; 38 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2013-11-11; known on 2016-11-30; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Yvain will be fired (or asked to resign) from his Psychiatrist position due to breach of confidentiality in the next 2 years. ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Tenoke on 2013-07-18; known on 2015-07-18; judged wrong by Malcolm Ocean on 2015-07-19.
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There will be pictures of the sandcastle from xkcd 1190 online within a year ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-03-31; known on 2014-03-30; judged right by NancyLebovitz on 2014-03-30.
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I will drop out of college. ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-13; known on 2014-03-31; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2014-03-31.
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“the entire north polar ice cap may well be completely gone in five years.” —Al Gore ( 12% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-11; known on 2014-04-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-04-01.