Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 32% | 46% | 83% | 78% | 97% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 25 | 46 | 18 | 32 | 30 | 5 | 156 |
Displaying all predictions made by simplicio. Filter by:
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Oil price (Brent crude) will be above $100/bbl in August ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by moridinamael on 2015-01-07; known on 2015-08-16; judged wrong by moridinamael on 2015-08-17.
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Oil price (Brent crude) will be above $60/bbl in August ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by moridinamael on 2015-01-07; known on 2015-08-16; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-08-16.
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Vladimir Putin will be president of Russia as of 1st January 2016 ( 91% confidence; 18 wagers )
Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by btrettel on 2016-01-01.
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Queen Elizabeth II will announce her abdication before 1st January 2016 ( 10% confidence; 18 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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At the end of the year, AMF will still be a GiveWell recommended charity. ( 78% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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Brent crude above $100/barrel at the beginning of 2016. (http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/crude-oil-brent.aspx) ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2014-12-15; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-03.
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The scottish referendum vote will be >60% yes ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by scav on 2014-09-14; known on 2014-09-19; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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The margin of victory in the scottish referendum is less than 1%. ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-13; known on 2014-09-19; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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A peace treaty ends the arab-israeli conflict before 2018 ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-08; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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A peace treaty ends the arab-isreali conflict before 2050 ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-08; known on 2050-01-01.
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A peace treaty ends the arab-israeli conflict before 2030. ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-08; known on 2030-01-01.
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Scotland will vote NO on independence. ( 74% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-22; known on 2014-09-19; judged right by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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State of war has existed between Russian federation and at least one NATO member by 2016-01-01. ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by simplicio on 2014-02-28; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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Crimea or similar territory to be recognized by at least one country as not part of Ukraine by 2016-01-01. ( 44% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by simplicio on 2014-02-28; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Silver on 2014-03-27.
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Extreme market volatility in 2014 ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jedijuggler on 2014-02-28; known on 2014-02-28; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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You know what's hip if you know the name Peter Singer in 2150. People know his name now (2013) but he will be a Descartes, a Newton come 2150. ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by deanmullen2014 on 2013-12-31; known on 2150-01-01.
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Uganda will legalize Gay Marriage by 2130. Yes you read that right! It will probably occur in the 2110s or 2120s. ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by deanmullen2014 on 2013-12-31; known on 2130-01-01.
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The world will be fully directly democratic by 2170! The world will be self-governed by it's people, probably nationless (definitely in culture, society and economics) but not a global state ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by deanmullen2014 on 2013-12-31; known on 2170-01-01.
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South Africa will be a smoking ruin similar to Zimbabwe by 2033. Specifically, the price of gold in Rand will have risen at least 20-fold (current price 12,857.80 rand / oz) , and unemployment will be at least 40% currently 23%. ( 32% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2013-12-06; known on 2033-01-01.
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The 2013 Less Wrong Survey will show more than 60% of the participants to be men. ( 94% confidence; 31 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Mathias Zaman on 2013-12-01; known on 2014-01-31; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-01-19.
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The Pope will be assassinated. ( 2% confidence; 35 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-11-28; known on 2028-11-28.
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Google Chrome browser will survive 5 years ( 93% confidence; 27 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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There will be a New York Times article about reactionaries before 2014 ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2013-04-06; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by dhoe on 2014-01-01.
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Cultured meat will free 25% of land used for ranching in North America by 2035. ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Malgidus on 2013-03-27; known on 2036-01-01.
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I will be physically stronger than a bear someday (possibly assisted by a mech or something, but not a remote-controlled one). ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by nick on 2013-03-14; known on 2100-01-01.
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Average global temperature for 2013 to be higher than for 2012. ( 56% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-03-13; known on 2014-01-15; judged right by simplicio on 2014-01-15.
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Detection of free oxygen on an exoplanet by end of the year. ( 17% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-03-12; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by phreeza on 2014-01-01.
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Angelo Scola will be the next pope. ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-03-11; known on 2013-04-01; judged wrong by simplicio on 2013-03-13.
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MetaMed to face legal challenges from regulators by 2016 (S.T. Rev via Twitter). ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-03-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2015-09-02.
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Falkland islanders to vote No (i.e., against British-administered status quo) in referendum March 10-11. ( 5% confidence )
Created by simplicio on 2013-03-02; known on 2013-03-12; judged wrong by simplicio on 2013-03-12.
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C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring) will hit Mars ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2013-03-02; known on 2014-11-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-10-28.
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EU-Ukraine association agreement to be signed in 2013 (probably Nov.) ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-25; known on 2013-12-01; judged wrong by simplicio on 2014-01-02.
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The Partito Democratico (PD) will win the next election (24/25 of February) in Italy ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by devas on 2013-02-23; known on 2012-02-27; judged right by devas on 2013-03-06.
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The Democratic Party will keep a majority in the US Senate following the 2014 Midterm Elections ( 46% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-22; known on 2014-11-05; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2014-11-05.
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Daniel Day Lewis will win the Oscar for Best Actor ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-22; known on 2013-02-24; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-25.
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Tommy Lee Jones will win the Oscar for Best Supporting Actor ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-22; known on 2013-02-24; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-25.
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Argo will win the Oscar Award for Best Picture ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-22; known on 2013-02-24; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-25.
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A referendum on Quebec sovereignty to be held before 2018. ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-02.
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A train will pass by before I leave for the day. ( 85% confidence )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-20; known on 2013-02-21.
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US minimum wage to be $9 (nominal) or greater by 2015. ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-20; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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“Glasses” computing devices (peripheral or standalone – example: Google Glasses) to have sales of at least 100 million units per year by 2018. ( 50% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-20; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2020-05-15.
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Republican presidential candidate in 2016 to be generally perceived as immigration-friendly (described as such by a major news source). ( 30% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-20; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-08-05.
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USA to initiate trade sanctions or legal action against China for cyber-espionage by 2016. ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-20; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.
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Oscar Pistorius to be convicted of murder of Reeva Steenkamp. ( 67% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-15; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by procran on 2014-01-20.
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USA to begin phase-out of pennies by start of 2016. ( 12% confidence; 30 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-13; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-01-01.
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More than 1000 French troops remain in Mali at beginning of 2014. ( 20% confidence )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-13; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by simplicio on 2014-01-02.
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The next pope will be a white male. ( 69% confidence; 22 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-02-12; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by simplicio on 2013-03-13.
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Pope Benedict XVI resigned for reasons other than his health, and this will be confirmed by reliable news sources. ( 18% confidence; 18 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by stephenh on 2013-02-11; known on 2014-02-11; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-02-13.
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The recently resigned pope will announce he is an atheist ( 0% confidence; 29 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-02-11; known on 2013-05-11; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2013-05-11.
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Marc Ouellet will be the next Pope. ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by halfwaytogallifrey on 2013-02-11; known on 2013-04-30; judged wrong by simplicio on 2013-03-13.
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China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023. ( 7% confidence; 23 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-02-08; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2023-01-02.
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By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000 ( 60% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-02-07; known on 2064-01-01.
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Voice recognition software will be capable of replacing the average court stenographer in five years. ( 31% confidence; 10 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2013-02-02; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2018-02-01.
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Mandatory paternity testing in some states of the USA by 2020. ( 33% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by tomokaicho on 2013-01-28; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-02-10.
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Sarah will be at Nathan's gathering. ( 65% confidence )
Created by simplicio on 2013-01-27; known on 2013-01-27.
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Apple share price to stay below $700 during 2013. ( 59% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-01-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by dhoe on 2014-01-01.
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North Korea to conduct a nuclear test in 2013. ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-01-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-02-12.
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Binyamin Netanyahu's coalition to win Jan 22 Israeli general election. ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by simplicio on 2013-01-21; known on 2013-01-23; judged right by simplicio on 2013-01-23.
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Sub-saharan Africa's HDI to be 0.472 or higher in 2014 (0.463 in 2011). (Source: http://hdrstats.undp.org/en/tables/) ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by simplicio on 2013-01-18; known on 2015-12-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-07-17.
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World HDI for 2014 to be 0.690 or higher (0.682 in 2011). ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-01-18; known on 2015-12-01; judged right by btrettel on 2015-07-04.
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Japan to obtain >30% of its power from nuclear in 2016. ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-01-18; known on 2017-02-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-11-26.
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Conditional on Germany proceeding with nuclear phaseout, coal will account for a larger share of generation (in TWh/yr terms) in 2015 than it did in 2012. ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-01-18; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by alecbrooks on 2016-08-13.
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Germany to cancel phase-out of nuclear power by 2022. ( 22% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-01-18; known on 2022-02-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2022-03-12.
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EU to succeed in its target of cutting greenhouse gas levels to 20% of 1990 levels by 2020. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-01-18; known on 2020-02-01.
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Justin Trudeau to win Liberal Party of Canada leadership race. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by simplicio on 2013-01-18; known on 2013-04-14; judged right by Tuxedage on 2013-05-02.
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Liberal/National Coalition to win Australian Federal Election 2013. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by simplicio on 2013-01-18; known on 2013-11-30; judged right by najdorf on 2013-12-30.
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The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years. ( 11% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Cy Fleming on 2013-01-16; known on 2028-01-16.
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The Opportunity rover will continue doing science (either mobile or as a fixed station) until at least May 1, 2013 ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-16; known on 2013-05-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-05-01.
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The US government will not have defaulted by the end of 2013. ( 96% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-15; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
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When he wrote The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver was aware of Overcoming Bias but was not aware of Less Wrong. ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2013-01-07; known on 2014-01-14.
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By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI. ( 6% confidence; 24 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2021-01-01.
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By the end of 2013, the total number of predictions on predictionbook.com will exceed 15,000. ( 80% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13; known on 2013-12-30; judged right by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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Economic and social collapse in the United States will progress to a point that Barack Obama will use emergency powers in order to not cede the office of the President at the end of his second term, perhaps even cancelling elections in 2016. ie Empire ( 3% confidence; 32 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by thephilosiraptor on 2013-01-13; known on 2017-01-20; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-20.
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Before 2015, it will be found (by a legal or governmental authority of the USA) that Aaron Swartz's death was not suicide. ( 3% confidence; 20 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-01-13; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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Google will be selling flying cars by December 2016 ( 3% confidence; 25 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-01-10; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by neilscott on 2016-11-26.
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Barack Obama will be assassinated in 2013 ( 1% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-01-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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Steven Spielberg will win the Oscar for Best Director. ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-10; known on 2013-02-24; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-25.
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Anne Hathaway will win the Oscar for Best Supporting Actress. ( 55% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-10; known on 2013-02-24; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-25.
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Lincoln will win the Oscar for Best Picture. ( 45% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-10; known on 2013-02-24; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-02-25.
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By the end of 2013, the government will have never minted a trillion dollar coin. ( 94% confidence; 27 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
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Fight over debt ceiling in Spring of 2013 will cause 1 or more of the 3 major ratings agencies (S&P, Moody, Fitch) to downgrade US govt debt ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-01-03; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-06-15.
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I will have $10 000 of play money on PokerStars by the end of 2013 ($569 as of Jan 2). ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-01-02; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by simplicio on 2013-01-27.
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Homicide rate per 100,000 in Canada to be lower in 2013 than in 2012. (Deciding source: StatCan) ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by simplicio on 2013-01-02; known on 2013-03-01; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
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The comet Ison will not be brighter than the full moon. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by dhoe on 2013-01-02; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by dhoe on 2014-01-01.
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In HPMOR, Harry will at some point accept that souls and/or an afterlife exists. ( 34% confidence; 17 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-01-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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The spot price of gold will exceed $2000/troy oz. at some point before December 31, 2013. ( 36% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by dakyne on 2013-01-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.
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S&P 500 at end of 2013 is 1560 or higher ( 66% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by mwengler on 2013-01-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by Qiaochu on 2014-01-02.
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Bashar al-Assad will still be holding power in Syria on December 31, 2013. ( 36% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-01-01; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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There will be a mass shooting in the US, defined as a shooting where more than 10 people are injured or killed ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by modulus on 2012-12-16; known on 2013-02-23; judged wrong by modulus on 2013-02-23.
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Berlusconi will be Italy's next premier ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2012-12-10; known on 2013-04-01; judged wrong by phreeza on 2013-04-01.
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By the end of January bond and stock markets will crash. (things my dad says) ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by drethelin on 2012-12-06; known on 2013-01-30; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2013-01-30.
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By 2020, Puerto Rico will be admitted to the Union ( 39% confidence; 18 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ( 14% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-29; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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HPMOR: The character of Harry will ultimately come to at least consider the fact that he is literally within a story. ( 10% confidence; 17 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by learnmethis on 2012-09-26; known on 2015-09-26; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.
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Hillary Clinton will run for president in 2016. ( 38% confidence; 25 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2016-02-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-27.
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Scotland will vote in favour of independence in the 2014 referendum ( 28% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by chimpsky on 2012-06-07; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021 ( 21% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-29; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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HP MoR: Hermione was not False Memory-charmed at any point between chapter 60 and 83 ( 26% confidence; 12 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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Pilot net-energy fusion plant online by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 49% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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The United States, Canada, and Mexico will form the North American Union in August 2020. ( 4% confidence; 22 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2020-08-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-08-30.