Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 53% | 65% | 78% | 86% | 94% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 616 | 437 | 419 | 458 | 711 | 175 | 2816 |
Displaying all predictions made by JoshuaZ. Filter by:
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SpaceX to land a version of Starship on Mars by the end of 2026. ( 27% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-03-24; known on 2027-01-01.
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Politics, US – Derek Chauvin convicted of any homicide charge (either murder or manslaughter) by 1st of June 2021. ( 48% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-21; known on 2021-06-01; judged right by lazydope on 2021-04-23.
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humans on mars by 2030 ( 28% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by htaussig on 2021-03-20; known on 2030-01-01.
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“Starship will never land in one piece on the moon or Mars” ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-03-12; known on 2030-01-01.
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andrew yang becomes mayor of new york ( 27% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by htaussig on 2021-03-08; known on 2021-11-03; judged wrong by htaussig on 2021-11-08.
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COVID – A single strain that circumvents immunity from earlier infections causes more than 10M infections globally by end of 2021. ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-07; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2023-01-03.
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RSA-1024 will be factored by 2021-12-31. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_Factoring_Challenge ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by evand on 2021-03-04; known on 2022-01-15; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-03-16.
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A Fortune 500 company (besides Tesla) within the next 3 months will announce they have bought Bitcoin ( 37% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kadavy on 2021-03-01; known on 2021-06-01; judged wrong by kadavy on 2021-06-01.
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joe biden dies in presidency ( 5% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-26; known on 2025-02-26.
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humans on mars before 2030 ( 24% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-26; known on 2030-02-26.
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A large quantum computer capable of breaking 163-bit Elliptic Curve Cryptography WON'T be built before 2030. ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by niconiconi on 2021-02-26; known on 2031-01-01.
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New Glenn to fly in 2022. ( 12% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-02-25; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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Proof that P≠NP (confirmed by Scott Aaronson) in 2021. ( 1% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.
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Proof that P=NP (confirmed by Scott Aaronson) in 2021. ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2022-01-01.
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World War 3 next year ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-07; known on 2022-02-06; judged wrong by meedstrom on 2022-02-13.
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Trump convicted by Senate before March 15 ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by krp.1902 on 2021-01-26; known on 2021-03-15; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-03-16.
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Trump will start a TV show before 2025. ( 36% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2025-01-01.
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No Trump family indictments in 2021 ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2022-01-30; judged right by D0TheMath on 2022-01-30.
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The inauguration will be peaceful ( 90% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-18; known on 2021-01-21; judged right by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20.
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By July 2021, China will invade Taiwan. The invasion will take longer than anticipated and as a result China will use biological weapons. The USA and EU will do nothing. ( 4% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Random on 2021-01-11; known on 2021-07-31; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-07-31.
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Politics, US – Donald Trump attempts to issue a pardon for himself before the end of the 20th of January 2021. ( 35% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-03; known on 2021-01-21; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-01-21.
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“within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million.” —Dennis Mangan ( 65% confidence; 12 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-21; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2022-01-05.
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Kamala Harris to be US President by the end of 2021. ( 6% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-11-08; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-01-02.
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New Glenn to fly at least once in 2021 ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-01.
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New Shepard to fly with people in 2021 ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2021-12-29.
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New Shepard to fly at least once in 2021. ( 93% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2021-02-25.
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At least 4% of non-electric vehicles sold in 2020 in the US will be diesel. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-02; known on 2021-06-01; judged right by stepan on 2021-09-12.
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Australia will open its borders to travellers from Canada, without an exemption or quarantine requirement, at some point in 2021 ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by sjy on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-12-31; judged wrong by stepan on 2022-01-02.
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ULA's Vulcan rocket to fly by end of 2021. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-12-18; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-01.
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Derek Chauvin will be convicted of murder ( 49% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by enolan on 2020-06-17; known on 2021-04-30; judged right by Deepak on 2021-04-20.
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At least 2.9 million Americans will receive the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine in the first week of vaccinations (by December 19 at midnight EST) ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Liface on 2020-12-11; known on 2020-12-20; judged wrong by Liface on 2020-12-21.
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Kanye West will win the presidency in 2024 or 2028 ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-11-24; known on 2029-01-01.
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Mike Pence will become President before Joe Biden does ( 16% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by LukeS on 2020-11-21; known on 2021-01-21; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-01-21.
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Trump will not concede the election before inauguration day. ( 55% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by LukeS on 2020-11-14; known on 2021-01-22; judged right by LukeS on 2021-01-22.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 2.5M ( 61% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-10-30.
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Politics, US – Trump wins a majority of the electoral college votes before February 2021. ( 2% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-11-10; known on 2021-02-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Both GA senate races will go Republican in January ( 63% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by LukeS on 2020-11-08; known on 2021-01-15; judged wrong by LukeS on 2021-01-08.
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Hungarian governing party Fidesz will lose the 2022 general election or lose its governing power before that election. ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by korakos on 2020-11-08; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by account on 2023-01-16.
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Republicans hold Senate in 2020 election ( 51% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Deepak on 2020-06-11; known on 2021-01-10; judged wrong by Deepak on 2021-01-07.
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Trump will run for president in 2024 ( 23% confidence; 14 wagers )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-11-06; known on 2024-06-30.
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There are ten or more US Supreme Court justices by the end of 2024 ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-11-05; known on 2025-01-01.
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Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election ( 95% confidence; 26 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-11-04; known on 2020-12-01; judged right by Deepak on 2020-12-15.
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Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021. ( 11% confidence; 17 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ren on 2020-11-01; known on 2021-11-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-11-01.
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I will have been vaccinated against COVID-19 before 2021-04-01 ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2020-10-16; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2021-04-01.
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Blue Origin's New Shepard to carry humans past Karman line (100km altitude) by April 15, 2022 ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-10-13; known on 2022-04-15; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-21.
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Test test ( 5% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-10-13; known on 2022-04-15.
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Spacex's SN8 will sucessfully complete its first flight and tests and come to a safe landing. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Reactionaryhistorian on 2020-10-10; known on 2020-11-30; judged wrong by Reactionaryhistorian on 2020-12-10.
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A Trump-nominated Supreme Court Justice is confirmed to replace Ginsburg before the 2020 November election. ( 79% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Deepak on 2020-10-07; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by Deepak on 2020-10-27.
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A Trump-nominated Supreme Court Justice is confirmed to replace Ginsburg before the 2020 November election. ( 67% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Deepak on 2020-09-19; known on 2020-11-04.
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Trump dies of COVID-19 ( 6% confidence; 34 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by technillogue on 2020-10-02; known on 2021-01-22; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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Republican remains Senate majority after 2020 election ( 51% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-09-24; known on 2020-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-09.
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The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life. ( 2% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Deepak on 2020-09-16; known on 2025-09-16.
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Harris will becoming the new Democratic candidate for the office of President (due to Biden's withdrawal or some other circumstance). ( 7% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2020-09-16; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-04.
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Greta Thunberg will win the Nobel Peace Prize. ( 48% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2020-09-10; known on 2020-10-09; judged right by Liging on 2020-11-15.
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PRC troops will be on the ground in California by 31 December 2030. ( 9% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by najdorf on 2020-09-10; known on 2030-12-31.
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Joe Biden won't be on the ballot in November. ( 5% confidence; 20 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2020-09-03; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-11-19.
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North Korea will be invaded in 2022 under citations of human rights and threats of nuclear war ( 2% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by limbo on 2020-09-02; known on 2022-08-13; judged wrong by limbo on 2022-08-13.
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Mitt Romney will endorse Joe Biden before the 2020 election ( 34% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-30; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-03.
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[Regardless of who is president] There will be riots and/or civil unrest in the US, more extreme or on a larger scale than the the BLM protests and riots in the next four years. ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ragnarok_Reverted on 2020-08-30; known on 2020-12-31; judged unknown by gwern on 2020-09-05.
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Humans on Mars by August 30, 2045 ( 50% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-08-30; known on 2045-08-30.
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SpaceX Crew-1 will dock with the ISS before November 1 2020 ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by finback on 2020-08-28; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2020-11-01.
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Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today ( 45% confidence; 25 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by jamesrom on 2020-08-22; known on 2024-08-22.
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Climate Change – August 2020 will be the 428th-consecutive month with temperatures above the 20th-century average, according to NOAA ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NickN on 2020-08-17; known on 2020-09-01.
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Politics, Belarus – Lukashenko is not president anymore by end of November 2020 ( 9% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NickN on 2020-08-17; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-12-01.
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[Geopolitics , Belarus , Russia] Little Green Men (or equivalent) shows up in Belarus within 1 (one) month. ( 39% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2020-08-15; known on 2020-09-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2020-09-18.
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New Glenn to launch by end of 2021. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-08-14; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-01.
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https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/2006-08-13 is hilarious ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by wizzwizz4 on 2020-08-10; known on 2026-08-13.
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World War III ( 42% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jasonau12345 on 2020-07-30; known on 2100-01-01.
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Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election ( 45% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-28; known on 2025-01-01.
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Biden will drop out of the race before election day Nov 3. ( 7% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ender Wiggin on 2020-07-27; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-03.
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Anthony Fauci will become TIME magazine's person of the year 2020 ( 22% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-25; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2021-01-01.
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For sufficiently large n, BusyBeaver of n+1, is at least the square of Busy Beaver of n. Proven by Jan, 1, 2051. ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-07-23; known on 2051-01-01.
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Busy Beaver of 5 is 47,176,870 and proven by 2080. ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-07-23; known on 2080-01-01.
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One or more participants in the Twitter hack is revealed to have been an employee of the Russian government ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-18; known on 2028-01-31.
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Congress will formally disestablish the reservations described in McGirt v. Oklahoma by the end of 2021 ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Deepak on 2020-07-09; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2022-01-05.
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Joe Biden (or replacement Democrat) wins the popular vote by a margin of 8% or more ( 32% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-07-09; known on 2020-11-05; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-12-04.
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COVID, UK – Daily deaths exceed 300 on a day in July. ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-07-05; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2020-08-01.
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Trump to comment on Kanye's presidential bid ( 58% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-05; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-11.
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Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31 ( 13% confidence; 27 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by daveisright on 2020-07-02; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2020-12-31.
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Another Supreme Court justice will retire before the end of the year. ( 43% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-01; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-12-31.
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The Green Run for the SLS will either not be completed by July 15, 2021, or at least one problem will be found during the Green Run requiring redesign of some aspect of the SLS. ( 23% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-07-01; known on 2021-07-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-03-28.
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The first approved COVID19 vaccine will be Moderna's ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-06-29; known on 2022-06-29; judged wrong by srconstantin on 2020-12-18.
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There will be a “second wave” of coronavirus (increased # of daily US deaths relative to June) visible by fall 2020. ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-06-29; known on 2020-10-16; judged right by srconstantin on 2020-10-27.
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Vox Media publishes an article on one of their official news sites about the SSC-NYT affair by the end of the year ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-06-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.
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At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site ( 78% confidence; 13 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-06-24; known on 2021-01-02; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.
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Scott Alexander will be doxed by the NYT ( 38% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by akarlin on 2020-06-23; known on 2020-07-08; judged right by 1MillionAffen on 2021-06-22.
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Will Andrzej Duda be reelected as a president of Poland? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Polish_presidential_election ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Michal_Dubrawski on 2020-06-21; known on 2020-07-16; judged right by Michal_Dubrawski on 2020-07-13.
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Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-21; known on 2029-01-01.
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By June 2022, I judge that Human Challenge Trials are attributable to making the date I personally get a COVID-19 vaccine earlier than it otherwise would've been without Human Challenge Trials ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-06-20; known on 2022-06-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2022-06-06.
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This year 2020 will be warmest on record (duplicating PredictIt bet from this Jan, odds there now at 50%) ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by akarlin on 2020-06-17; known on 2021-01-15; judged right by akarlin on 2021-01-17.
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Poland will legalize gay marriage by 2030, see https://www.unz.com/akarlin/poland-will-legalize-gay-marriage-within-10-years/ ( 69% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by akarlin on 2020-06-17; known on 2030-01-01.
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World GDP will have grown by at least 7.5% (roughly double the average since 1950) within one calendar year up to and including 2026. ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Mathieu_Putz on 2020-06-15; known on 2027-04-02.
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Elizabeth Warren is Joe Biden's running mate ( 27% confidence; 14 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-15; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-08-12.
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Democrats hold House in 2020 ( 78% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Deepak on 2020-06-11; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by Deepak on 2020-11-07.
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First SLS to fly by end of 2021. ( 31% confidence; 18 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-09; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-01.
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SpaceX's Starship to do a flight at least 1 km up by February 20, 2021. ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-09; known on 2021-02-22; judged right by kuudes on 2021-02-20.
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New Glenn rocket to fly putting a payload into orbit by end of 2021. ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-09; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-01.
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By January 1. 2026, proven exists a function f(x) such that 1) x log x = o(f(x)) 2) if N is an odd perfect number with k distinct prime factors, then log N > f(k). ( 55% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-09; known on 2026-01-02.
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North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020 ( 5% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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By June 8, 2022, estimated US deaths for COVID-19 based on excess mortality will be less than 5 million deaths. ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-07; known on 2022-06-15.