Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 43% | 63% | 83% | 80% | 93% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 21 | 49 | 46 | 61 | 179 | 20 | 376 |
Displaying all predictions made by PlacidPlatypus. Filter by:
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China will attempt an invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2025. ( 20% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2021-04-09; known on 2025-12-31.
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Donald Trump will die within five years. ( 22% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JohnGreer on 2020-07-25; known on 2025-07-25.
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Marijuana will be unscheduled, taxed and regulated similar to alcohol at a federal level in the United States before 2025. ( 42% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-01-01; known on 2025-01-02.
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The world will end in 2078 to a nuclear holocaust. ( 8% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Fenrir on 2020-10-31; known on 2078-12-31.
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Joe Biden runs for president in 2024 ( 33% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-13; known on 2024-01-16.
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Trump reelected in 2024. ( 31% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by bsl5265 on 2021-11-08; known on 2024-11-05.
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Jeannie Marie Wagner will not admit she is wrong when revisit topic in six months https://www.facebook.com/harry.mok.3/posts/10159370606954807?comment_id=10159412084094807 ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-02; known on 2022-08-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-08-04.
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The cure for cancer will be released to the world. ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by amandopando805 on 2021-11-06; known on 2031-11-06.
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Donald Trump starts a new political party before the end of 2024 ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2021-04-05; known on 2025-01-01; judged unknown by n99 on 2022-10-28.
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I get a COVID vaccine before the end of April ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-04-03; known on 2021-04-30; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-04-30.
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joe biden dies in presidency ( 5% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-26; known on 2025-02-26.
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humans on mars before 2030 ( 24% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-26; known on 2030-02-26.
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The House votes to impeach Trump a second time before the end of his term. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-01-07; known on 2021-01-21; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-01-21.
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Kamala Harris to be US President by the end of 2021. ( 6% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-11-08; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-01-02.
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Mike Pence will become President before Joe Biden does ( 16% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by LukeS on 2020-11-21; known on 2021-01-21; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-01-21.
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Joe Biden wins the 2024 presidential election ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-13; known on 2024-11-16.
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Politics, US – Trump wins a majority of the electoral college votes before February 2021. ( 2% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-11-10; known on 2021-02-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Republicans hold Senate in 2020 election ( 51% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Deepak on 2020-06-11; known on 2021-01-10; judged wrong by Deepak on 2021-01-07.
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Trump will run for president in 2024 ( 23% confidence; 14 wagers )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-11-06; known on 2024-06-30.
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there will be a Democratic Senate at least once by 2042 ( 96% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-11-05; known on 2043-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-03-03.
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There are ten or more US Supreme Court justices by the end of 2024 ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-11-05; known on 2025-01-01.
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Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election ( 95% confidence; 26 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-11-04; known on 2020-12-01; judged right by Deepak on 2020-12-15.
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If Trump looses the electoral college votes, he will give up his post normally in January ( 91% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Liging on 2020-11-03; known on 2021-02-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-02-01.
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Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021. ( 11% confidence; 17 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ren on 2020-11-01; known on 2021-11-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-11-01.
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China will successfully incorporate Taiwan by 2050 ( 32% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-10-22; known on 2051-01-01.
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No further debates take place between Trump and Biden ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-10-20; known on 2020-11-05; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-10-26.
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I subjectively consider the 2020 election to have turned into a clusterfuck ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-10-20; known on 2020-12-05; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-12-05.
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A Trump-nominated Supreme Court Justice is confirmed to replace Ginsburg before the 2020 November election. ( 79% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Deepak on 2020-10-07; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by Deepak on 2020-10-27.
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A Trump-nominated Supreme Court Justice is confirmed to replace Ginsburg before the 2020 November election. ( 67% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Deepak on 2020-09-19; known on 2020-11-04.
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Trump dies of COVID-19 ( 6% confidence; 34 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by technillogue on 2020-10-02; known on 2021-01-22; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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Republican remains Senate majority after 2020 election ( 51% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-09-24; known on 2020-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-09.
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The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life. ( 2% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Deepak on 2020-09-16; known on 2025-09-16.
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Harris will becoming the new Democratic candidate for the office of President (due to Biden's withdrawal or some other circumstance). ( 7% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2020-09-16; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-04.
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PRC troops will be on the ground in California by 31 December 2030. ( 9% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by najdorf on 2020-09-10; known on 2030-12-31.
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Joe Biden won't be on the ballot in November. ( 5% confidence; 20 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2020-09-03; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-11-19.
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North Korea will be invaded in 2022 under citations of human rights and threats of nuclear war ( 2% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by limbo on 2020-09-02; known on 2022-08-13; judged wrong by limbo on 2022-08-13.
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Mitt Romney will endorse Joe Biden before the 2020 election ( 34% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-30; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-03.
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Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today ( 45% confidence; 25 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by jamesrom on 2020-08-22; known on 2024-08-22.
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Open table D&D game still going reasonably well in six months ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-08-02; known on 2021-02-02; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-02-02.
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World War III ( 42% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jasonau12345 on 2020-07-30; known on 2100-01-01.
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Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election ( 45% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-28; known on 2025-01-01.
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Biden will drop out of the race before election day Nov 3. ( 7% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ender Wiggin on 2020-07-27; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-03.
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Will bitcoin ever go below 10,000 again after August 2020? ( 91% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-27; known on 2099-01-01.
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Joe Biden (or replacement Democrat) wins the popular vote by a margin of 8% or more ( 32% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-07-09; known on 2020-11-05; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-12-04.
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Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31 ( 13% confidence; 27 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by daveisright on 2020-07-02; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2020-12-31.
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Another Supreme Court justice will retire before the end of the year. ( 43% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-01; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-12-31.
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Politics, US – The New York times publishes an article containing both Scott Alexander's legal surname and a reference to SSC before the end of July 2020. ( 25% confidence; 20 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-26; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by ayegill on 2020-08-01.
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At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site ( 78% confidence; 13 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-06-24; known on 2021-01-02; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.
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Donald Trump will be elected president in the 2020 presidential elections. ( 50% confidence; 18 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by korakos on 2020-04-30; known on 2020-11-05; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-07.
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Kim Jong Un confirmed dead or vegetative state by end of June 2020 ( 23% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-04-26; known on 2020-06-30; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-01-04.
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A third-party candidate gets more than 5% of the vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election ( 8% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-14; known on 2020-11-07; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-11-07.
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Donald Trump will NOT be re-elected ( 55% confidence; 26 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by tcsmithbiz@yahoo.com on 2019-12-23; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2020-11-07.
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Pete Buttigieg will win the Democratic Nomination ( 14% confidence; 18 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by tcsmithbiz@yahoo.com on 2019-12-23; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-09-06.
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[Politics] Trump will be elected for a second term ( 45% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RedScharlach on 2019-02-15; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-11-07.
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Demonstration of energy-positive fusion power plant by the end of 2035. ( 31% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2018-05-10; known on 2035-12-31.
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PredictIt shows Bernie Sanders having highest chance to be Dem nominee at end of 2018. ( 35% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-02; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2019-01-02.
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North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022 ( 5% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2018-01-19; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2022-01-01.
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BTCUSD will exceed 20000 during 2018 ( 28% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sjy on 2018-01-17; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2018-12-31.
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Hillary Clinton is indicted by the end of 2018 ( 3% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2019-01-01.
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The US Republican Party ends the legislative filibuster in the Senate by the end of 2018 ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2019-01-02.
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Jared Kushner is indicted by the end of 2018 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Satoshi Nakamoto will have at one point been the world's richest person by 11:59 pm, December 31st, 2019. ( 24% confidence; 9 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by dchristie on 2018-01-12; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by dchristie on 2020-01-01.
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Theresa May UK PM throughout 2018 ( 63% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2018-01-09; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Kim Jong Un is leader of North Korea on 12/31/18 ( 90% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-03; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Current Iranian regime is overthrown by April 2018 ( 6% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2018-01-02; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2018-04-02.
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[Trump's approval rating on 2/1/18 as aggregated by 538 is] 37.6%–40% ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-02-01; judged right by ccokeefe on 2018-02-01.
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Donald Trump will not be impeached throughout his first term. ( 65% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Verres on 2017-12-21; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2019-12-31.
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Elizabeth Warren will run for President in 2020 ( 62% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2020-10-01; judged right by JTPeterson on 2019-04-10.
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Hillary Clinton will announce candidacy for the 2020 US Presidential Election ( 5% confidence; 19 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-12-19; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2019-04-10.
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Democrats to gain control of US Senate in 2018 elections ( 43% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2017-12-14; known on 2018-11-07; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2018-11-07.
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Public demonstration of an AI that can learn the rules of, and play at a superhuman level, most board/card games without supervision, just watching many games and being told who won, in 2018 or 2019. ( 64% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2017-12-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-01-01.
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Next term there will be a democratic president in America ( 73% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-11-30; known on 2020-12-04; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-12-04.
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Hillary Clinton will be indicted for the sale of Uranium to Russia ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Gibs on 2017-11-12; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2018-07-02.
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It will be revealed that there is a massive pedophile ring is operating within the United States government ( 25% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-19; known on 2025-01-28.
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Assuming the postal vote happens, the majority of the Australian public who vote will vote against gay marriage in the upcoming postal vote ( 41% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gurgus on 2017-08-09; known on 2017-11-26; judged wrong by sjy on 2017-11-14.
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North Korea will not be invaded by the United States in 2017. ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by justuseapen on 2017-08-10; known on 2018-01-01.
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Terrorism in the Middle East Will Decline By Half By 2040. ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-08-08; known on 2040-12-16.
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North Korea is invaded by the end of 2017 ( 7% confidence; 24 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-07-29; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-06-07.
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Jeff Sessions will still be Attorney General on September 1st. ( 74% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-07-28; known on 2017-09-01; judged right by sjy on 2017-09-01.
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There will be an attempted assassination (including uncovered/failed assassination plots) of Donald Trump before his term ends (20 Jan 2021) ( 49% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com on 2017-07-25; known on 2021-01-21; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-12.
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Trump approval rating > 39% at end of September 2017 (according to 538) ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-07-18; known on 2017-10-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-10-01.
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BTCUSD will exceed 1,900,000 on 18 July 2020, as predicted by John McAfee ( 5% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sjy on 2017-07-18; known on 2020-07-18; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2020-07-18.
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Rey was a child trained at Luke's Jedi Academy. ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-01; known on 2018-06-02; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2017-12-21.
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Rey is a Kenobi ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-01; known on 2018-06-02; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2017-12-21.
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Rey is a child of Luke Skywalker ( 45% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-01; known on 2018-06-02; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2017-12-21.
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Rey is a reincarnated Anakin Skywalker ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-01; known on 2018-06-02; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2017-12-21.
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Donald Trump will not be impeached or resign in his first term ( 66% confidence; 33 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Bismagician on 2017-05-18; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by CaelumCodicem on 2019-12-19.
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Trump creates “world peace” before leaving office ( 3% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-18; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-03-31.
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More than 1,000 US troops deployed in North Korea by December 2017 ( 9% confidence; 20 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-05-14; known on 2017-12-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-12-01.
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Scotland & Canada are one country on July 15th, 2018 ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-20; known on 2018-07-15; judged wrong by ioannes on 2018-07-15.
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More than 1,000 US troops deployed in North Korea by June 1, 2017 ( 9% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-06-02; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-01.
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The United States will be in an active, major war with North Korea as of May 1, 2017. ( 8% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-11; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-05-01.
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Trump will win California in 2020 ( 13% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-02-28; known on 2021-02-28; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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Kim Jong Un is Supreme Leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea on November 15, 2017 ( 92% confidence; 22 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-27; known on 2017-11-16; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-11-16.
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Kim Jong Un is Supreme Leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea on July 15, 2017 ( 94% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-27; known on 2017-07-16; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-07-16.
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American ROE (in any relevant theatre) amended to allow US troops to fire on government-associated pakistanis within pakistan borders ( 18% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-01-01.
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Trump will win a second term ( 46% confidence; 74 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2020-11-08; judged wrong by regex on 2020-11-20.
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At least one cartoonist arrested for cartoon of President Trump in US ( 19% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-01-01.
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A longterm (with humans present at least sixth months) colony will occur in Asteroid Belt before it occurs on Mars. ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-01; known on 2100-01-01.
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Native Americans kidnap and torture at least 400 US citizens over 2017-2032 ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-01; known on 2033-01-01.