Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 48% | 57% | 67% | 67% | 85% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 217 | 290 | 318 | 248 | 614 | 60 | 1747 |
Displaying all predictions made by tedks. Filter by:
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social movement with explicit reference to kyriarchy as a tenet commits mass murder (>10,000 people) ( 9% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-18; known on 2042-01-01.
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Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence ( 3% confidence; 22 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-12; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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Bitcoin at 10,000,000$/BTC (or equivalent in VEF or other currency) on any market where trading occurs. ( 6% confidence; 16 wagers; 31 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-10; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by bendini on 2017-12-27.
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Non-test nuclear weapon detonation, intentional or not, before or during the first Comey testimony on Thursday ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-07; known on 2017-06-08; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-08.
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Tech, Google I/O 2017 – Google announces a release of the Fuschia operating system at Google I/O, with the release to happen within the next year. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-18; known on 2017-05-24; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-05-25.
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Trump creates “world peace” before leaving office ( 3% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-18; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-03-31.
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President Trump will resign on his 146 th day in office ( 9% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by John8128 on 2017-05-16; known on 2017-06-15; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-06-15.
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The United States will be in an active, major war with North Korea as of May 1, 2017. ( 8% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-11; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-05-01.
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Tech – Google Hangouts shows a notification or message on opening the app on the 27th March in the US and/or UK directing users to switch to another app for SMS. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-03-25; known on 2017-03-28; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-03-31.
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Uber will go bankrupt, dissolve, or merge with another company by the end of 2017 ( 13% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sdr on 2017-03-20; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by sole21000 on 2018-01-01.
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The labor force participation rate will increase above 66% at least once while Trump is on office ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-03-12; known on 2025-03-12.
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I will have a gf at some point ( 81% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-03-11; known on 3001-01-01.
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SpaceX will fly a mission with crew around the moon by end of 2018. ( 29% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by trishume on 2017-02-28; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Trump gives another solo press conference in February 2017 ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-17; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-03-02.
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Trump will not be impeached ( 78% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2025-01-30; judged wrong by regex on 2019-12-19.
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Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state ( 0% confidence; 35 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-10; known on 2025-01-01.
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No terrorist attack in the in any First World country (Western Europe, US, Japan, Australia) will kill > 100 people in 2017 ( 60% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Civil war in USA: at least 2 such events in 2 US states each having organized event of >= 10000 armed persons who are not legal government and who kill >= 100 armed persons in each event. ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-11-27; known on 2017-04-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-04-01.
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I am banned from Predictionbook ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-23; known on 2021-05-22; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-02.
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A terrorist incident involving the death of 1 or more Americans occurs before year end on American soil (excludes perpetrators). ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-01; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-13.
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Bernie will drop out before New York primary. ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-04-19; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-04-19.
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Obama will successfully appoint Scalia's appointment. ( 43% confidence; 33 wagers; 22 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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I will be re-hired by the end of the month. ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Lissy on 2016-02-02; known on 2016-02-29; judged right by Lissy on 2016-02-29.
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HPMoR: Snape is present in Ch 114. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Chri on 2015-03-03; known on 2015-03-15; judged wrong by Chri on 2015-03-17.
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EY accepts at least one answer for the Final Exam, causing the story to continue to chapter 121. ( 78% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by tedks on 2015-03-02; known on 2015-03-04; judged right by iwakun on 2015-03-03.
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Eliezer will accept an answer involving Harry secretly partially transfiguring something while his wand is pointed at the ground in such a way that Voldemort doesn't notice until too late. ( 32% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JohnWittle on 2015-02-28; known on 2015-03-03; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-05.
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HPMoR: In chapter 111, the events depicted are happening inside a realm created by the mirror. ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2015-02-25; known on 2015-03-14; judged wrong by Unknowns on 2015-03-14.
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“The power the Dark Lord knows not” is ability to make altruist plans. ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-21; known on 2015-03-16; judged wrong by player_03 on 2015-03-16.
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HJPEV has access to Voldemort's Horcrux network, due to being sufficiently Tom Riddle. ( 56% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by linkhyrule5 on 2015-02-21; known on 2015-03-07; judged wrong by tedks on 2015-03-03.
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Harry Potter is the Master of Death, in the sense of magically owning all three Deathly Hallows. ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by linkhyrule5 on 2015-02-21; known on 2015-03-07.
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UMass does not change its policy with regard to admitting Iranian nationals to certain graduate programs before the deadline of this prediction. ( 60% confidence )
Created by tedks on 2015-02-18; known on 2015-02-25; judged wrong by tedks on 2015-02-18.
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North Korea’s government will not collapse (whether due to revolt/civil war, or war with another country) before Dec 31, 2015. ( 93% confidence; 20 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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HP MOR: It will be revealed that Harry rederived the Pythagorean Theorem, on a Thursday, before April, and that it was fun ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by solipsist on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-03-14; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.
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HP MoR: We will learn that the True Patronus by itself can block the Killing Curse, no matter who casts each spell. ( 46% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by 75th on 2013-08-13; known on 2015-07-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.
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HP MoR: James Potter, Sirius Black, and Peter Pettigrew were Animagi. ( 55% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by 75th on 2013-09-17; known on 2015-07-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-10.
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HP MoR: any superintelligent or FOOMing AGI/AI will appear as a character/device in the story ( 11% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-28; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by tedks on 2015-05-01.
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By 2025, autism rates in the US will surpass 50% for children. ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-30; known on 2026-01-01.
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some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-21; known on 2024-07-21.
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My step-sister's marriage will still be intact (not separated or divorced or remarried) five years from now. ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-06-27; known on 2019-06-27; judged right by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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“no matter how many scare headlines you read, ISIS will never take Baghdad” – The war nerd. ( 77% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-18; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2016-01-05.
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Over 70% of the respondents to the effective-altruist survey will be male. http://lesswrong.com/lw/k60/2014_survey_of_effective_altruists/ ( 76% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Patrick Brinich-Langlois on 2014-05-01; known on 2014-07-01; judged right by etarletons on 2015-03-18.
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Half-Life 3 is released in 2014. ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by tedks on 2014-03-19; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-31.
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There will be no direct “hot”/shooting military conflict between any of the US, France, Germany, the UK, and Russia in 2014 ( 94% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Benquo on 2014-03-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-01-02.
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The Newsweek reporter will be fired within a year. ( 32% confidence; 14 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-03-07; known on 2015-03-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-03-07.
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We can find a table with two available outlets at Rao's. ( 45% confidence )
Created by tedks on 2014-01-26; known on 2014-01-26; judged wrong by tedks on 2014-01-27.
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I will “feel” ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Duyut on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-01-19.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky has never read a book written by Andrea Dworkin. ( 76% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by tedks on 2014-01-08; known on 2014-01-08.
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Within five years, Pope Francis (or a successor) makes a comment in an official or unofficial capacity that there is no literal hell. ( 11% confidence; 21 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by adbge on 2014-01-07; known on 2019-01-07; judged right by Osuniev on 2019-01-27.
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HP MoR: While the diamond was just transfigured from his father's rock, the ring itself was also transfigured from Hermione's remains or part thereof, thus getting past Dumbledore's scanning for transfigured objects that Harry may have had on his person ( 42% confidence; 28 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-08; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by tedks on 2015-02-28.
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A leak or source from inside the NSA indicates that a surveillance program forbidden after today by the Supreme Court, another federal court, or act of congress has continued with little to no disruption ( 66% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by tedks on 2013-12-29; known on 2018-12-29; judged unknown by tedks on 2021-06-14.
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Jon Stewart begins repping full communism. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by tedks on 2013-12-14; known on 2014-12-14; judged wrong by tedks on 2014-12-15.
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Bitcoin goes below $600 in the next 30 days. ( 53% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by tedks on 2013-12-01; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by lavalamp on 2013-12-19.
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I will not look at porn from now until January 1, 2015. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-06.
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I will not masturbate from now until January 1, 2015. ( 10% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-06.
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Miley Cyrus beats Edward Snowden in the TIME 2013 Person of the Year Internet poll. ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by tedks on 2013-11-27; known on 2013-12-05; judged right by tedks on 2013-12-09.
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Bitcoin price on 2014-01-01: 150-349$ (mtgox prices) ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ArisKatsaris on 2013-12-31.
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Bitcoin price on 2014-01-01: 1000-2000$ (mtgox prices) ( 49% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ArisKatsaris on 2013-12-31.
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Barack Obama to attempt to run for a third term as President (either through Constitutional amendment or other method). ( 0% confidence; 41 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-24; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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The price of 1BTC on MtGox is greater than or equal to $600 at some point before the end of this prediction. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by tedks on 2013-11-17; known on 2013-12-17; judged right by nshepperd on 2013-11-18.
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The price of one bitcoin on MtGox goes above $500 at some point before end of November 2013. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by tedks on 2013-11-15; known on 2013-12-01; judged right by tedks on 2013-11-17.
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Bitcoin >$9000 by February 2014. ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-15; known on 2014-02-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-01.
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43a4c3b7d0a0654e1919ad6e7cbfa6f8d41bcce8f1320fbe511b6d7c38609ce5a2d39328e02e9777b339152987ea02b3f8adb57d84377fa7ccb708658b7d2edc ( 74% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-03; known on 2014-06-03; judged right by gwern on 2014-06-03.
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BoB: MtGox will support Litecoin on its exchange by year end 2013. ( 20% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by tedks on 2013-11-01; known on 2014-01-02; judged wrong by nshepperd on 2014-01-03.
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SR: DPR/Ross Ulbricht will not be found guilty on charges of computer hacking (or conspiracy). ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by tedks on 2013-10-03; known on 2015-10-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-02-04.
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SR: Ross Ulbricht will not be found guilty on charges of narcotics trafficking (or conspiracy). ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by tedks on 2013-10-03; known on 2015-10-03; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-06-11.
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SR: DPR will not be found guilty on charges of money laundering (or conspiracy to commit money laundering). ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by tedks on 2013-10-03; known on 2015-10-03; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-06-11.
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Ross William Ulbricht will not be found guilty of any charges, whether through acquittal, or charges not being brought, or any other reason. ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by tedks on 2013-10-02; known on 2015-10-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-02-04.
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HPMoR will update with chapter 97 on Wednesday the 14th of August. ( 73% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ygert on 2013-08-11; known on 2013-08-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-08-15.
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HPMOR updates this Wednesday. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by tedks on 2013-07-15; known on 2013-07-18; judged right by tedks on 2013-07-18.
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Astronomers will detect a planet where alcohol is thought to rain from the sky. ( 36% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-07-12; known on 2023-01-01.
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Bitcoin to hit ~$20/btc “in a few weeks” —Scott Locklin model ( 10% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-04-17; known on 2013-05-22; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-05-22.
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BTC hits $200 within the year ( 57% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-09.
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Bitcoin will hit the $30 mark (currently $100) sometime in the next 2 months. ( 30% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-04-01; known on 2013-07-01; judged wrong by phreeza on 2013-07-02.
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The price of bitcoins on MtGox meets or exceeds $100 in the next 30 days. ( 70% confidence )
Created by tedks on 2013-03-30; known on 2013-04-30; judged right by gwern on 2013-04-01.
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The price of bitcoins on MtGox meets or exceeds $80 in the next 30 days. ( 90% confidence )
Created by tedks on 2013-03-25; known on 2013-04-24; judged right by ygert on 2013-03-27.
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The price of bitcoins on MtGox meets or exceeds $75 within the next 30 days. ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by tedks on 2013-03-21; known on 2013-04-20; judged right by tedks on 2013-03-25.
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The price of bitcoins on MtGox meets or exceeds $60 in the next 30 days. ( 55% confidence )
Created by tedks on 2013-03-19; known on 2013-04-18; judged right by tedks on 2013-03-19.
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The price of bitcoins on MtGox meets or exceeds $65 within the next 30 days. ( 56% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by tedks on 2013-03-19; known on 2013-04-18; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-03-21.
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The price of bitcoins meets or exceeds $50 within the next 30 days. ( 55% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by tedks on 2013-03-06; known on 2013-04-05; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-03-19.
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The price of bitcoins on MtGox meets or exceeds $45.00 in the next 30 days. ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by tedks on 2013-03-05; known on 2013-04-04; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-03-06.
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The price of bitcoins on MtGox meets or exceeds $40 in the next 30 days. ( 45% confidence )
Created by tedks on 2013-03-04; known on 2013-04-03; judged right by tedks on 2013-03-05.
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The price of bitcoins exceeds $35 on mtgox in the next 30 days. ( 55% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by tedks on 2013-02-22; known on 2013-03-24; judged right by nanotube on 2013-03-04.
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The recently resigned pope will announce he is an atheist ( 0% confidence; 29 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-02-11; known on 2013-05-11; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2013-05-11.
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I will not be able to get a girlfriend before the end of 2013. ( 73% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2012-12-28; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by Tuxedage on 2014-01-02.
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At least one more GNU project maintainer publicly resigns, citing similar reasons as the gnutls and sed maintainers. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by tedks on 2012-12-23; known on 2013-01-31; judged wrong by tedks on 2013-02-01.
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Bitcoin will be exchanged at a rate higher than $17/BTC at the end of November, 2012. ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by tedks on 2012-11-15; known on 2012-12-01; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-01.
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Obama will be elected President in 2012 ( 69% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by cmessinger on 2011-08-16; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.
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I will be ranked Diamond League in Starcraft II 1v1 by the end of the school year. ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2012-09-17; known on 2013-05-15; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2013-05-15.
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My extortionist will reply at all. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-10; known on 2012-10-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-10.
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Akin will quit before 1st September 2012 ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2012-09-01; judged wrong by tedks on 2012-09-03.
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Assuming Assange stays there, British enforcement agents will not enter Ecuador embassy without Ecuadoran consent before end of 2013 ( 66% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-16; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-31.
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An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years. ( 8% confidence; 17 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-14; known on 2032-11-10.
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HPMoR: Quirrell killed the original Voldemort and took his position. ( 4% confidence; 19 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-07-31; known on 2014-07-31; judged wrong by player_03 on 2015-03-16.
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2012 i will enter a romantic relationship that will last longer than 30 days. ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-01-03; known on 2013-01-30; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-01-30.
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At least one presidential debate of 2012 will include a question about “anti-capitalism”. ( 39% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-08.
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In the next three months, there will be no thefts of bitcoins from bitcoin end-users resulting from a the end-user's GNU/Linux system being compromised. ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by tedks on 2011-06-18; known on 2011-09-18; judged right by tedks on 2011-09-18.
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In the next 3 months, there will be no thefts of bitcoins from end-users of bitcoins who are running the GNU/Linux operating system. ( 90% confidence )
Created by tedks on 2011-06-18; known on 2011-09-18.
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Bitcoin >=$100 by July 1 —the-ace ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-04; known on 2011-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-30.
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Bin Laden is still alive! ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by minhduc on 2011-05-04; known on 2011-07-04; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-04.
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Gaddfi will lose one more son in the next 2 months. ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by minhduc on 2011-05-01; known on 2011-07-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-04.