Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 47% | 60% | 72% | 81% | 91% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 15 | 134 | 121 | 169 | 186 | 11 | 636 |
Displaying all predictions made by elephantower. Filter by:
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Rajoy will be Spain's next prime minister ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Merrick Garland will fill Scalia's SCOTUS seat ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-07-14; known on 2017-02-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-02-16.
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Democrats win undivided control of government in 2016 ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-11-09.
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McCain wins re-election in 2016 ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by kuudes on 2016-11-09.
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The GOP will keep the senate in 2017 ( 52% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by predictit on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Undivided government under the Republicans after 2016 ( 13% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Corbyn will be put on the Labour leadership ballot ( 93% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-13; known on 2016-08-13; judged right by splorridge on 2016-07-28.
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Government of United Kingdom has notified European Union of its intent to withdraw from Union as per article 50 para 2 of the Treaty on European Union. ( 70% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-07-13; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2017-03-29.
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Government of United Kingdom has notified European Union of its intent to withdraw from Union as per article 50 para 2 of the Treaty on European Union. ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-07-13; known on 2017-07-01; judged right by kuudes on 2017-03-29.
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Government of United Kingdom has notified European Union of its intent to withdraw from Union as per article 50 para 2 of the Treaty on European Union. ( 39% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-07-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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Government of United Kingdom has notified European Union of its intent to withdraw from Union as per article 50 para 2 of the Treaty on European Union. ( 28% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-07-13; known on 2016-10-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-10-01.
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Owen Smith will be the next Labour leader. ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-07-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-10-03.
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A third party candidate will not participate in a presidential debate ( 79% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-07-13; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-08.
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Nick wrote the Bernie screed ( 20% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-13; known on 2016-07-13; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-13.
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Democrats will win 370+ electoral votes in the 2016 presidential election. ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-07-13; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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The GOP will win under 370 electoral votes in the 2016 presidential election ( 93% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-13; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Corbyn to become PM ( 27% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2016-07-12; known on 2020-07-05; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2020-07-09.
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Morocco withdraws from Western Sahara by 2020 ( 10% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-12; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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The world average of the 2016 democracy index will be higher than in 2015 ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-12; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-01-08.
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Dissident Irish republican groups launch an attack killing more than 5 people by the end of 2018 ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-11; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2019-01-01.
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May will preside over an early general election ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RoryS on 2016-07-11; known on 2019-11-07; judged right by splorridge on 2017-06-14.
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Australia will hold another Parliamentary election by the end of 2016 ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-09; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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From Jan 1, 2017 to Jan 1, 2019, If I encounter any 10$ USD bills, more than half of them will have been printed since 2013 ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2019-01-02.
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NASDAQ, S&P500 all end 2017 lower than they started in 2017 (priced in USD) ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by bonchka on 2019-05-31.
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2nd amendment repealed in the US (or US constitution considered invalid / replaced outright without an equivalent by at least half the area of the current states) ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2066-01-01.
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Worldwide treaty banning all nuclear weapons + plan to reduce weapon stocks to 0 in place. ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2019-06-15; judged wrong by AlexLamson on 2019-06-27.
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The primary reason for the discovery of STUXNET was the Israeli modification of the source code. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-07; known on 2066-07-08.
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Conditional on Egypt Flight 804 being a terrorist plot, the weak link will not be France or French airport security ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-04; known on 2021-06-16.
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The Republican convention will pass a motion to unbind the delegates ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-07; known on 2016-07-19; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-16.
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Trump will use donated money to pay off any portion of the loans he has made to his primary campaign ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-05; known on 2016-08-16; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-08-16.
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A motion to unbind delegates will be voted on by the full Republican convention ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-07; known on 2016-07-19; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-16.
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Trump's polling relative to Clinton's will improve if/when they have a debate. ( 64% confidence; 9 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Bound_Up on 2016-07-06; known on 2016-10-05; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-10-05.
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Trump choice for VP is NOT Fallin, Kasich, Carson, Rubio, Corker, Sondoval, Pence, Sessions, Love, Gingrich, himself, or nobody. ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jenson on 2016-07-06; known on 2016-07-21; judged wrong by Jenson on 2016-07-15.
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Bill Shorten will be Prime Minister of Australia. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-07-06; known on 2016-07-30; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-09.
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Hillary Clinton wins the presidential election 2016 ( 64% confidence; 26 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2016-07-04; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Trump wins the presidential election 2016 ( 34% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by qznc on 2016-07-04; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
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Turnbull will be Australia's next prime minister ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-02; known on 2016-07-08; judged right by elephantower on 2016-07-09.
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Donald J Trump will pick Monica Lewinsky as his running mate. ( 3% confidence; 15 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-02; known on 2016-07-19; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-03.
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Andrea Leadsom will be the next leader of the conservative party ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-07-01; known on 2016-09-20; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-11.
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Michael Gove will be the next leader of the Conservative party ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-07-01; known on 2016-09-20; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-07.
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Conditional on Bill O'Reilly's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of having Narcissistic Personality Disorder [NPD]. ( 54% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-01; known on 2066-07-01.
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“Disney will buy Magic Leap by the end of 2017 for upwards of $25 billion.” ( 19% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2016-06-30; known on 2017-12-16; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2017-12-16.
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Scotland rejoins the EU as an independent nation in the next 10 years. ( 35% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-06-27; known on 2026-01-16.
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In the next 5 years, Northern Ireland holds either an Irish reunification referendum, or an independence referendum. ( 12% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-06-27; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ( 55% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-06-27; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by davatk on 2021-01-16.
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The Conservative party will split ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-27; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-01-01.
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The Labour party will split ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-27; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-01-01.
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Conditional on a Labour leadership election being called and conditional on Jeremy Corbyn being on the ballot, Corbyn will win ( 79% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-27; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-10-03.
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Conditional on a Labour leadership election being forced (ie, not as a result of Corbyn's resignation), Jeremy Corbyn will be on the ballot ( 80% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-27; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-07-28.
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Jeremy Corbyn will resign over Brexit and the current Labour coup. ( 10% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-27; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-09-05.
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David Cameron's successor will not formally invoke Article 50 (conditional on DC not doing it) ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ejlflop on 2016-06-25; known on 2020-06-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-31.
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David Cameron will not formally invoke Article 50 ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ejlflop on 2016-06-25; known on 2016-11-01; judged right by Jenson on 2016-07-14.
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US economic collapse before mar 2017: many banks fail, emergency measures taken by US fed taken & fail, mass drop in available credit, and at least 2 international news sources(la monde, der speigel) using the term 'economic collapse' to describe it ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-01.
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Trump VP pick is Mia Love ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Trump VP pick is Jeff Sessions ( 27% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Trump VP pick is Mike Pence ( 38% confidence; 10 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2016-09-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Trump VP Pick Brian Sandoval ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Trump pick for VP is Marco Rubio ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Trump choice for VP is Mary Fallin ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Food scarce in UK: widespread hunger/empty supermarkets for at least a month(ie not single blip due to natural catastrophe) ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-24; known on 2018-01-25; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2018-01-31.
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Another EU country will decide to leave before 2020 ( 44% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-24; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Paul.David.Carr on 2020-01-01.
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Prime minister Boris Johnson ( 37% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-24; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2019-08-31.
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Scotland will have another independence referendum and the result will be YES. ( 42% confidence; 16 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-03-23; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-02.
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Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-23; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-07-23.
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Cory Booker will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign ( 87% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-23; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-07-23.
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Julian Castro will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-23; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-07-23.
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A man will be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-23; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-07-23.
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Egypt will default on its debt by the end of 2023 ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-20; known on 2024-01-01.
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Trump goes it alone, does not appoint a VP ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-17; known on 2016-10-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Stein and/or Johnson take more than 1% of the national popular vote. ( 72% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-06-17; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-15.
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A woman will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign ( 77% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-17; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-07-23.
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Elizabeth Warren will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign ( 81% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-17; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-07-23.
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Kim Jong-un was assassinated on or before 16 June 2016. ( 3% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-06-16; known on 2016-12-17; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-06-29.
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Trump picks Chris Christie for VP ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-16; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Within five years it will be generally agreed that Egypt Flight 804 was brought down by an act of terror rather than a mechanical fault. ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-16; known on 2021-06-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2021-06-18.
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GDP growth in china >6.6% in 2016 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-15; known on 2017-04-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-01.
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Gary Johnson will be the next elected President ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-14; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Food shortages (eg grocery/food stores with empty shelves) reported at some point before 2019 in South Africa ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-12; known on 2019-01-01.
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Inflation rate in june 2017 higher than june 2016 in South Africa. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-12; known on 2018-03-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
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Unemployment rate in 2017 worse than 2016 in South Africa ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-12; known on 2018-03-01; judged right by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
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United Ireland by 2020 ( 8% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-06-05; known on 2020-12-16; judged wrong by Reactionaryhistorian on 2020-10-12.
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There will be at least one presidential debate in 2016 that both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump participate in ( 86% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-04; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-09.
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EW will respond to the message within one month ( 7% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2016-06-04; known on 2016-07-04; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-06-26.
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Gary Johnson will poll above 15% and be included in the 2016 presidential debates. ( 15% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-06-03; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-08.
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Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump will be the next elected President ( 90% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-01; known on 2016-11-10; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020 ( 9% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-29; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2021-01-01.
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Bernie Sanders chooses Carly Fiorina as VP ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-28; known on 2017-01-02; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-09-03.
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Trump's VP Pick: Carol Bartz ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-26; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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MIT Course 6 (EECS) to still be MIT's most popular major by 2020 ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2021-01-01.
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The three “Deep South” states — Paraná, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul – to secede from Brazil sometime before 2030 ( 24% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2031-01-01.
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Trump to back legalizing recreational and/or medical marijuana during 2016 election. ( 33% confidence; 9 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-05-04; known on 2016-11-16; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-11-16.
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All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-07; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-01-01.
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If TRUMP gets 1237 before convention the GOP elites will do a news conference with somber tone explaining why with all the dangers our country faces they can not in good judgement allow him to be the nominee and deny him the nomination ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by julietales22 on 2016-05-01; known on 2016-07-16; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-07-16.
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Either mean, median or mode truck drivers in either globally or US will make <= .027 BTC/hr or equivalent ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-26; known on 2031-04-26.
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Civil war in Saudi Arabia ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-15; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-01-31.
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The winner of the 2016 US presidential election will be a Democrat. ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by trishume on 2016-04-07; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Ted Cruz will be linked to a sex scandal before year end. ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Utah will go to somebody other than the GOP nominee in 2016. ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-30; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Trump names his running mate before GOP convention. ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-24; known on 2016-11-16; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2016-07-17.
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If nominated, Trump will win zero electoral votes. ( 5% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-22; known on 2017-02-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-09.