Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 38% | 64% | 57% | 53% | 78% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 13 | 39 | 30 | 15 | 9 | 0 | 106 |
Displaying all predictions made by fandangos. Filter by:
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Joe Biden runs for president in 2024 ( 33% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-13; known on 2024-01-16.
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Trump dies of COVID-19 ( 6% confidence; 34 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by technillogue on 2020-10-02; known on 2021-01-22; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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My poker money will be positive by the end of October ( 69% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by fandangos on 2020-09-22; known on 2020-10-31; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-11-01.
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Conditioned on me finishing >= half the content for the A. exam by the end of August, I'll do a practice test at most 2 weeks after that turned true ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-09-15.
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The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life. ( 2% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Deepak on 2020-09-16; known on 2025-09-16.
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No one in my extended family will test positive for COVID && be hospitalized in September ( 70% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-09-01; known on 2020-09-30; judged right by fandangos on 2020-09-30.
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I won't catch COVID by the end of September or believe reasonably likely (say, >= 20%) that I did ( 80% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-09-01; known on 2020-09-30; judged right by fandangos on 2020-10-01.
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If I take a practice test for the A. exam in August, I will get >= 40% score ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-08-31.
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I'll watch the 2nd Justice League film this week ( 58% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-08-10; known on 2020-08-16.
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I will have contacted Amr. by the end of the week ( 37% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-08-10; known on 2020-08-16; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-08-16.
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I will have finished the classic macro + accounting readings on Sunday ( 71% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-08-10; known on 2020-08-16; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-08-16.
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I will have more money on PS than I deposited at the end of the week ( 54% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-08-10; known on 2020-08-16; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-08-16.
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I'll finish reading Superforecasting this week ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by fandangos on 2020-08-10; known on 2020-08-16; judged right by fandangos on 2020-08-16.
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I meet Gl. this week ( 56% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-08-10; known on 2020-08-16; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-08-16.
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I will end up doing my internship at some academic lab ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-10-10.
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Until Sunday I won't be able to do a push-up on the floor (if I don't actually try this doesn't count) ( 60% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-09.
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Bk. will not try Anki (or at least tell me he did) until the end of the month ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by fandangos on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-31; judged right by fandangos on 2020-10-05.
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No new major mandatory isolation law or something similar in the city I am currently living this week ( 70% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by fandangos on 2020-08-09.
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I won't have finished reading either Superforecasting, Faust or the law book by the end of the week ( 75% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by fandangos on 2020-08-10.
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I will have contacted my prof Am. by the end of the week ( 55% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-09; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-08-09.
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Created by fandangos on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-09; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-08-09.
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I will have finished both of the macro chapters by the end of the week ( 55% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-09; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-08-09.
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I will have finished studying all the probability distributions by the end of the week ( 60% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by fandangos on 2020-08-09.
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I will have made a push-up with reasonable (not necessarily perfect) form on the floor until the end of August ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by fandangos on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-31; judged right by fandangos on 2020-09-01.
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I won't have finished all pieces from Part A of the sight singing program until the end of August ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by fandangos on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-31; judged right by fandangos on 2020-09-01.
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I won't have finished Unit 7 of the sight singing program by the end of the week ( 60% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by fandangos on 2020-08-09.
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I won't have finished (being reasonably satisfied with melodies / chords) transcription of Moondog piece by the end of the month ( 40% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-31; judged right by fandangos on 2020-09-01.
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[I won't finish (being reasonably satisfied with the chords / melodies) transcribing the piece by Moondog] by the end of the week ( 60% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by fandangos on 2020-08-09.
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If I train all 1000 epochs, the images the NN outputs will not look physically meaningful ( 80% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-07-24.
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By the end of the week, I will have get publishable – even if not awesome – results with my neural network ( 70% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-27; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-08-03.
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By the end of the week, I will still have made a profit playing poker ( 60% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-27; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by fandangos on 2020-08-03.
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I will Zoom / Skype / Hangout with at least 1 friend this week ( 85% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-27; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-08-03.
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I won't bike with N. next weekend ( 65% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-27; known on 2020-08-02; judged right by fandangos on 2020-08-03.
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Conditioned on me getting the network to have < .3 error, it'll still suck as judged subjectively by the quality of pictures it produces ( 80% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-07-24.
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I will have finished >= half the content for the A. test by the end of August ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-08-31; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-09-01.
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I will take the A. test in October ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-10-20; judged right by fandangos on 2020-10-23.
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I'll take the GRE before October AND get a grade of at least 320 ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-09-30; judged right by fandangos on 2020-09-30.
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I'll not play live poker until the end of July ( 95% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-08-03.
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Until the end of the month, the balances in the betting game I'm playing with Vt. will not go beyond 150/50 either way ( 60% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-07-31; judged right by fandangos on 2020-08-03.
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Bk. will have answered my message by the end of the month ( 60% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-07-31; judged right by fandangos on 2020-07-30.
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Somehow today I will get this network to have < .3 error ( 80% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-07-24; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-07-25.
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I will let the network train for 300 epochs and by the end of them it'll not have achieved < .3 error ( 60% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-07-24; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-07-24.
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If I train all the 1000 epochs, the network will achieve < 0.4 training loss at some point ( 80% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-07-24.
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I go to grad school next year ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2021-03-16; judged right by fandangos on 2021-12-16.
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Jair Bolsonaro not impeached until the end of his mandate ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2022-12-16.
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I will see my grandmother in person this year ( 69% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-12-29; judged right by fandangos on 2021-02-01.
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I will see my sister in person this year ( 75% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-12-29; judged wrong by fandangos on 2021-02-01.
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I will publish a paper this year ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-12-29; judged wrong by fandangos on 2021-02-01.
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My bachelor thesis will be done in time – even if they make some accomodations for me ( 83% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-08-15; judged right by fandangos on 2021-12-16.
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I will be able to do at least 1 set of 3 push-ups (horizontally on the floor) by the end of August ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-08-31; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-09-01.
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I will not be able to do a single chin-up starting from the bottom by th end of August ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-08-31; judged right by fandangos on 2020-09-01.
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I will have met someone in person from Tinder by the end of August ( 80% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-08-31; judged right by fandangos on 2020-07-27.
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I will not meet anyone from Tinder in person in July ( 70% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-07-27.
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I will not have finished reading Superforecasting by the end of July ( 80% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-07-31; judged right by fandangos on 2020-08-03.
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I will not have published more than 2 new blog posts by the end of August ( 69% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-08-31; judged right by fandangos on 2020-09-01.
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Before the end of August, I will have bought contracts in a prediction market ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-08-31; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-09-01.
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I will graduate in the end of the year ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2021-02-01; judged wrong by fandangos on 2021-02-01.
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I will start some internship at the latest in October ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-10-10; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-11-01.
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Conditioned on me playing at least 2000 hands, I will be a losing poker player by the end of August ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-08-31; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-09-01.
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I will end up opening that business with my teacher before the end of 2022 ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2022-12-31.
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If I train all the 1000 epochs, the neural net will achieve < 0.5 training loss at some point ( 97% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-07-24; judged right by fandangos on 2020-07-24.
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Trump wins 2020 election ( 38% confidence; 21 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Deepak on 2020-06-11; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-11-07.