Unjudged Predictions
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NGE: The First Ancestral Race will be mentioned by name in Rebuild. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: 3.0 or 4.0 will deconstruct Shinji's heroism in 2.0 and reveal it to be a sham a la Norman Spinrad's The Iron Dream ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: Rebuild is an alternate universe(s) to NGE TV or EoE, possibly in the Everett multiverse sense ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: Rebuild is a sequel to itself (time-loop) ( 10% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: Rebuild is a sequel to EoTV ( 1% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: Rebuild is a sequel to EoE ( 1% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: Rebuild is a sequel to a previous NGE work ( 2% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: Rebuild is a dream/possible-world during EoE of Asuka ( 1% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: Rebuild is a dream/possible-world during EoE of Shinji ( 2% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: Rebuild is a dream/possible-world during EoE ( 3% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: Rebuild is a dream during NGE TV by Rei or Kaworu ( 0% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: Rebuild is a dream during NGE TV by Misato ( 0% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: Rebuild is a dream during NGE TV by Asuka while sedated ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: Rebuild is a dream during NGE TV by Asuka while being mind-raped ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: Rebuild is a dream during NGE TV ( 2% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: Sadamoto's Eva manga will conclude with substantially the same ending as Rebuild ( 26% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Rei will destroy the other Rei clones ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Asuka's surname's change to Shikinami will receive an in-universe explanation and will pertain to Second Impact/the four FARs in Misato's 2.0 flashback ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Asuka's surname's change to Shikinami will receive no in-universe explanation. ( 35% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Kaji will die after Armisael ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Gendo's ultimate goal in 4.0 will not be to reunite with Yui, but to turn her into a god-like entity ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Yui will separate from Eva-01 and be physically human at some point ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: “Arael attacks the sequestered NERV personnel with a wide beam, providing for a mindfuckery exposition scene featuring the other adults finally.” ( 5% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: There will be live-action at some point in Rebuild. ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-04; known on 2018-01-01.
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The DAO hack will result in a lawsuit (publicly known) by January 2018. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by bitbatbot on 2016-06-19; known on 2018-01-01.
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bitcoin volatility goes very high, with wild % swings in 2017. at least 6 90% swings. ( 8% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-22; known on 2018-01-01.
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5 2013-londons worth of urban development gets created in 2017 ( 63% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-22; known on 2018-01-01.
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Number of countries bombed by the US in 2017 is = 7 ( 33% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-31; known on 2018-01-01.
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FISA Section 702 renewed ( 53% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-22; known on 2018-01-01.
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There will be a news story on Ethereum on https://www.1tv.ru before 2018 ( 60% confidence )
Created by leftblank on 2017-12-08; known on 2018-01-01.
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Number of countries bombed by the US in 2017 is < 7 ( 18% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-31; known on 2018-01-01.
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throughout dec 2017, bitcoin officially banned in russia ( 53% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-01; known on 2018-01-01.
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nasdaq composite <= 3800 at any point in 2017 ( 49% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-15; known on 2018-01-01.
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Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2018-01-01.
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First directly brain-controlled internet post will be announced within the next 5 years. ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-08-01; known on 2018-01-01.
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Resolution 2: I will write the majority of a VisionofEarth.org article + Update my bio ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01.
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Lybrido passes largescale human trials with flying colours, no major side effects ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-21; known on 2018-01-01.
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Civ 6 will receive higher ratings on metacritic than Civ 5 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2018-01-01.
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Vaselgel makes it to market by 2017 ( 17% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-20; known on 2018-01-01.
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>=1.6 million human genomes sequenced ( 59% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-20; known on 2018-01-01.
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William Bennett imprisoned in 2017 ( 40% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-21; known on 2018-01-01.
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More mergers & acquisitions in bitcoin in 2017 than any previous year ( 57% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-18; known on 2018-01-01.
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Either Graphene EMI Shielding or one of the other 85 “key technologies” is successfully put on market by at least one Korean firm ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-15; known on 2018-01-01.
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8 million accounts on ripple networks ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-15; known on 2018-01-01.
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Ampyx prototype AP3 deployed for testing ( 49% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-14; known on 2018-01-01.
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Bank of Canada increases overnight rate over 2.5% in 2017 ( 63% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-13; known on 2018-01-01.
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Over 30% of Canadians 2 payments or more behind on mortgage payments at any point in 2017 ( 65% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-13; known on 2018-01-01.
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Commercially available hard disks utilize heat-assisted magnetic recording ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-13; known on 2018-01-01.
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24% or more of coral reefs in asia are gone relative to 2007 ( 68% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-12; known on 2018-01-01.
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Avogadro project fixes value of the Kilogram before Planck constant is set in 2017 ( 59% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-11; known on 2018-01-01.