Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 49% | 57% | 65% | 86% | 94% | 89% | |
Sample Size | 241 | 286 | 236 | 287 | 552 | 46 | 1648 |
Displaying all predictions made by pranomostro. Filter by:
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aliens invade earth in 2023 ( 0% confidence; 21 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-12; known on 2023-12-31.
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We will fairly convincingly know who Satoshi Nakamoto is in five years. ( 20% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JohnGreer on 2018-04-13; known on 2023-04-13; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-31.
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Investors in the WeWork IPO will lose more than 50% of their investment within 3 years ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by sjy on 2019-08-18; known on 2022-09-01.
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Google still has more than 66% market share for search by 2030 ( 73% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-12-31.
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50% chance of AI by 2028 —Shane Legg ( 23% confidence; 29 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2028-01-01.
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By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. — Alyssa Vance ( 41% confidence; 14 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-11-24; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-01-08.
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I will have taken over at least one country by 2035. ( 0% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-13; known on 2035-01-01.
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I will win a Nobel Prize in literature in 40 years. ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-08; known on 2052-09-08.
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Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 33% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Israel and Egypt at war by 2022 ( 21% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-16; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-01.
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“within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million.” —Dennis Mangan ( 65% confidence; 12 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-21; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2022-01-05.
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[The Economist predicts:] Sweden wins the Eurovision Song Contest ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01.
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Politics, US – Conditional on no Democratic candidate receiving a majority of delegates by 2020 June 7, Bernie Sanders is the Democratic nominee. ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-28; known on 2020-10-01.
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[US politics] Both the presidential and VP nominees for the Democratic party to be women ( 10% confidence; 23 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-09; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics: The country/committee that wins the most boxing medals to be] a member of the former Soviet Union ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2021-08-09; judged right by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics: The country/committee that wins the most boxing medals to be] the United States ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2021-08-09; judged wrong by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics: The country/committee that wins the most boxing medals to be] France ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2021-08-09; judged wrong by katingand on 2021-08-09.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics: The country/committee that wins the most boxing medals to be] Cuba ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2021-08-09; judged wrong by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Pete Buttigieg to be] 0 ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-05.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Pete Buttigieg to be] 1 to 10 ( 75% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-09-11.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Pete Buttigieg to be] 11 to 20 ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Pete Buttigieg to be] 21 to 30 ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Pete Buttigieg to be] 31 to 40 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-16.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Pete Buttigieg to be] 41 to 51 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-16.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Elizabeth Warren to be] 0 ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Elizabeth Warren to be] 1 to 10 ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Elizabeth Warren to be] 11 to 20 ( 22% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Elizabeth Warren to be] 21 to 30 ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Elizabeth Warren to be] 31 to 40 ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-16.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Elizabeth Warren to be] 41 to 51 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-05.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Bernie Sanders to be] 0 ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-05.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Bernie Sanders to be] 1 to 10 ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Bernie Sanders to be] 11 to 20 ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-07-14.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Bernie Sanders to be] 21 to 30 ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Bernie Sanders to be] 31 to 40 ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-14.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Bernie Sanders to be] 41 to 51 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-05.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 0 ( 42% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 1 to 10 ( 55% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 11 to 20 ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 21 to 30 ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 31 to 40 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-16.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 41 to 51 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-05.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, not won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 0 ( 60% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, not won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 1 to 10 ( 36% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, not won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 11 to 20 ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, not won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 21 to 30 ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, not won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 31 to 40 ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-16.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, not won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 41 to 51 ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-05.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Joe Biden to be] 0 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-05.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Joe Biden to be] 1 to 10 ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-16.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Joe Biden to be] 11 to 20 ( 42% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Joe Biden to be] 21 to 30 ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Joe Biden to be] 31 to 40 ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-07-14.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Joe Biden to be] 41 to 51 ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.
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Dominican Republican presidential election to return a winner in the first round ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-07-06; judged right by Cato on 2020-07-06.
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EPA finalizes a change to how air pollution deaths are calculated, and this change results in a decrease in the number of estimated deaths ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-05-21; known on 2020-01-01.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of May 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] May 2019 ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-06-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-08.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of May 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] April 2020 ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-06-10; judged right by Cato on 2020-06-08.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of April 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] March 2020 ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-05-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-09.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of April 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] April 2019 ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-05-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-09.
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U.S. 10yr Treasury yield dips below 0.5% in second quarter of 2020 ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-03-27; known on 2020-06-30; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-06-30.
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S&P 500 index dips below 2000 in year of 2020 ( 32% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-03-27; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-12-31.
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India – Coranavirus positive cases at 10000 by 1st April, 2020 ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by atharva117 on 2020-03-25; known on 2020-04-01; judged wrong by nortriptyline2 on 2020-04-03.
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Despite the lockdown in India, COVID-19 cases will continue to rise for another 2 weeks. The lockdown will be extended to the end of April. ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by areyouhappy on 2020-03-25; known on 2020-04-08; judged right by areyouhappy on 2020-04-09.
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Face masks as fashion accessoir becomes a thing this year ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-03-25; known on 2020-12-30; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-01.
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The day on day increase people tested positive for COVID19 in South Africa will on average be > 20% at least until 100,000 people have tested positive ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by moyamo on 2020-03-24; known on 2020-04-20; judged wrong by moyamo on 2020-04-21.
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12-17% of the Senate will test positive for corona by April 1st ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by daveisright on 2020-03-24; known on 2020-04-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-04-11.
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San Francisco will extend the shelter-in-place order beyond April 7th ( 96% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2020-03-23; known on 2020-04-08; judged right by jacobgreenleaf on 2020-04-03.
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Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020 ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-03-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020 ( 4% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sjy on 2020-03-22; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020 ( 28% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sjy on 2020-03-22; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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Gamestop will reopen before the end of the year ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by daveisright on 2020-03-22; known on 2020-12-31.
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Business, UK – Tesco continue to offer online delivery to the general public, without restrictions on who qualifies, but on checking on the 31st of March, there are no available slots on or before the 14th of April. ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-21; known on 2020-03-31; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-04-01.
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Business, UK – Tesco cease to offer online delivery to the general public, without restrictions on who qualifies, by end of March. ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-21; known on 2020-04-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-04-01.
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Politics, UK – Government says restaurants may reopen for sit-in service before end of April. ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-21; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-05-01.
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World – Opening of Olympic Games delayed beyond end of July. ( 92% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-21; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by wizzwizz4 on 2020-04-02.
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Politics, UK – UK government announces additional measures to support the self-employed by deadline. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-21; known on 2020-03-28; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-03-28.
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Coronavirus epidemic in US peaks before June 2020 ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by erstwhile on 2020-03-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-07.
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Triplebyte will no longer exist as a company on August 20 2021, and if sold will have sold for less than $48.1M. ( 23% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by enolan on 2020-03-21; known on 2021-08-20; judged wrong by enolan on 2021-08-21.
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More than 1000 Corona deaths in the Netherlands in March ( 36% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Stucwerk on 2020-03-20; known on 2020-04-01; judged right by Stucwerk on 2020-03-31.
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Varun Grover thinks “No democracies, no dissent, and a world much like JG Ballard's High Rise” link: https://twitter.com/varungrover/status/1240970794001301504 ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by volis on 2020-03-20; known on 2030-01-01.
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< 35M coronavirus deaths ( 86% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by kjaques on 2020-03-19; known on 2020-07-31; judged right by kjaques on 2020-07-31.
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<2M coronavirus deaths. ( 25% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by kjaques on 2020-03-19; known on 2020-07-31; judged right by kjaques on 2020-07-31.
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On March 26th 2020 the states of California, Pennsylvania, Washington, Ohio, and Maryland will be quarantined, with smaller areas within on fenced lock down. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by AgentAri on 2020-03-19; known on 2020-03-27; judged wrong by kuudes on 2020-03-29.
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German schools open again after easter holidays ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2020-03-18; known on 2020-04-18; judged wrong by qznc on 2020-04-18.
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Army corps of engineers will build additional hospitals/testing around NYC/NJ ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by daveisright on 2020-03-17; known on 2020-04-03.
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[Scottish independence referendum to have been formally announced & scheduled, conditional on] Brexit-with-a-deal having taken place ( 17% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2020-03-15.
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[Scottish independence referendum to have been formally announced & scheduled, conditional on] no-deal Brexit having taken place ( 35% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2020-03-15.
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[Scottish independence referendum to have been formally announced & scheduled, conditional on] UK still in EU ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2020-03-15.
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More than 100 Corona deaths in the Netherlands in March ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Stucwerk on 2020-03-16; known on 2020-04-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-03-21.
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More than 300,000 people will die from corona in the US ( 70% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by daveisright on 2020-03-14; known on 2020-10-30; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10.
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World – Will one or more cases of COVID-19 be described as plausible or likely to have occurred in North Korea in the BBC by end of month March. ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-14; known on 2020-04-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-04-01.
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Total COVID-19 deaths in South Korea will be less than 100 by August ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2020-03-14; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by nortriptyline2 on 2020-04-03.
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Total COVID-19 deaths in China will be less than 4000 by August. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2020-03-14; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2020-08-01.
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[For coronavirus 2019] Mortality rate of total pop in America will be under .01% by 2021. ( 31% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by lazarus on 2020-03-05; known on 2020-06-16; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-23.
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[For coronavirus 2019] Fear will subside by June 15th, 2020. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lazarus on 2020-03-05; known on 2020-06-16; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-18.
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[For coronavirus 2019] most danger will be gone by June 15th, 2020. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lazarus on 2020-03-05; known on 2020-06-16; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-23.
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University of Washington Seattle campus cancels at least 10% of its scheduled classes for spring quarter entirely within the first two weeks of scheduled classes. ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tumblewood on 2020-03-10; known on 2020-04-15; judged wrong by Tumblewood on 2020-04-08.
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SPX reaches 4000 by the end of 2021 ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-03-10; known on 2021-12-31; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2021-10-01.
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The Super Mario Bros. Any% record will be above 4:55:000 on 31st December 2022. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by The_Offwo on 2020-03-09; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by The_Offwo on 2021-04-20.