Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 53% | 59% | 70% | 78% | 87% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 138 | 156 | 130 | 125 | 118 | 8 | 675 |
Displaying all predictions made by KnaveOfAllTrades. Filter by:
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11 beats 5 http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/l0n/youre_entitled_to_everyones_opinion/bcus ( 55% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-20; known on 2014-09-20; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-20.
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10 beats 4 http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/l0n/youre_entitled_to_everyones_opinion/bcus ( 60% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-20; known on 2014-09-20; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-20.
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3 beats 9 http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/l0n/youre_entitled_to_everyones_opinion/bcus ( 67% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-20; known on 2014-09-20; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-20.
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8 beats 2 http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/l0n/youre_entitled_to_everyones_opinion/bcus ( 67% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-20; known on 2014-09-20; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-20.
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7 beats 2 http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/l0n/youre_entitled_to_everyones_opinion/bcus ( 67% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-20; known on 2014-09-20; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-20.
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A fight breaks out at my 20 year high school reunion over something that happened 20 years ago. ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mike on 2014-09-15; known on 2014-10-19; judged wrong by Mike on 2014-10-19.
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Islamic terrorist attack in the UK kills at least one this month. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-08-29; known on 2014-09-29; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-29.
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Je dessinerai, pour mon travail ou pour mon plaisir, au moins 2 fois par semaine en moyenne, que ce soit en congés ou au travail. ( 52% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Jean on 2014-08-04; known on 2014-11-04; judged wrong by Jean on 2014-11-04.
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Ebola will be tamed in 3 months ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2014-11-02; judged wrong by mad on 2014-11-02.
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Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black. ( 13% confidence; 24 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-17; known on 2024-06-16.
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Pyschbuddying posts: 'Lemme know in comments' gets a witty 'No' or similar. ( 10% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-06-11; known on 2014-06-19; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-04.
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30 Rock episode 1 they go to Burger King after the restaurant. ( 75% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-04-27; known on 2014-04-28; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-04-27.
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After deleting 2048 cookie, game state will be lost; will seem to be not saved anywhere else. ( 67% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-31; known on 2014-03-30; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-31.
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LitSoc gets affiliated. ( 84% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-21; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-31.
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KB Education ( 50% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09; known on 2013-03-07.
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Activities: FC ( 95% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09; known on 2013-03-07; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09.
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Sport: TJ ( 94% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09; known on 2013-03-07; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09.
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Community: SA ( 25% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09; known on 2013-03-07; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09.
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Community: PB ( 36% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09; known on 2013-03-07; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09.
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Community: TP ( 39% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09; known on 2013-03-07; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09.
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PG Education ( 50% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09; known on 2013-03-07; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09.
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JK President ( 22% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09; known on 2013-03-07; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09.
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KA President ( 36% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09; known on 2013-03-07; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09.
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PG President ( 42% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09; known on 2013-03-07; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09.
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90% turnout CI: [3000,5650] ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09; known on 2014-03-07; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09.
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HPMoR: The spell of cursèd fire is Amaterasu. ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-02-15; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-23.
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There are unique 50 wagers on this prediction by April 1st, 2014. ( 69% confidence; 62 wagers; 71 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-04-02; judged right by rickyrich98 on 2014-04-02.
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b4a6a4800b48078db172085e8120f0f6 acf7653e0314bb48ef389b8f115e0806db18b05354c5ead3c5af090681b9dafb4fce2fbbbdce8b8f0034df038ef88be999980847eac05aa1adfc730c32361d33 ( 23% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-01-12; known on 2014-01-15; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-01-15.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky has never read a book written by Andrea Dworkin. ( 76% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by tedks on 2014-01-08; known on 2014-01-08.
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Pat Quinn wins the 2014 Illinois Gubernatorial election. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by adbge on 2014-01-02; known on 2014-11-05; judged wrong by adbge on 2014-11-05.
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The outbreak of a civil war in Bahrain between Summer and Autumn 2014 ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by deanmullen2014 on 2013-12-31; known on 2014-10-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-11-04.
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The 2013 Less Wrong Survey will show more than 60% of the participants to be men. ( 94% confidence; 31 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Mathias Zaman on 2013-12-01; known on 2014-01-31; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-01-19.
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No toilet jump ( 83% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2013-08-05; known on 2013-08-06; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2013-08-05.
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http://lesswrong.com/lw/i38/fake_explanations_in_modern_science_the_case_of/ : comments already point out KH counterexample isn't counterexample due to incomplete analysis ( 98% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2013-07-27; known on 2013-08-01.
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Comprehensive immigration reform will get through the House of Representitives, that has a) path to legalizations for undocumented immigrants given they pay back tax debt b) skill/ merit based immigration decisions, and a deprioritization of family connec ( 23% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by hucavanagh on 2013-07-01; known on 2014-11-02; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-11-02.
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CP does not comment on 'literally' in Double Standards 'cut' line explanation. ( 63% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2013-06-02; known on 2013-04-01; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2013-06-03.
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CP comments on 'literally' in Double Standards 'cut' line explanation. ( 37% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2013-06-02; known on 2013-04-01.
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The Euro will not be dead by 2016 ( 94% confidence; 29 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by challquist on 2013-04-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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The Democratic Party will keep a majority in the US Senate following the 2014 Midterm Elections ( 46% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-22; known on 2014-11-05; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2014-11-05.
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My Probability & Stats raw percentage will be strictly over 89.5% ( 69% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2013-01-27; known on 2013-04-01; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2013-02-19.
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My Analysis raw mark will be between 34 and 44 marks out of 50 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2013-01-27; known on 2013-04-01; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2013-02-19.
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My algebra lecturer will Facebook or Tweet or mention to me the psychoanalysis pun on my exam script. ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2013-01-27; known on 2013-04-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2013-02-19.
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Yvain will have more LessWrong karma than me in 5 years. ( 86% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2017-09-04; judged right by lukeprog on 2017-09-04.
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The EU will essentially break up into groups of countries with different worldviews within the next 3 years. Prediction date 2nd November, 2011. ( 10% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Fledi on 2011-11-02; known on 2014-11-02; judged wrong by mad on 2014-11-02.