Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Soldier of the Pantheon ( 5% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Nylea, God of the Hunt ( 5% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Anax and Cymede ( 5% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Daxos of Meletis ( 5% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Hammer of Purphoros ( 3% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Bow of Nylea ( 3% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Reverent Hunter ( 3% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Agent of the Fates ( 3% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Reaper of the Wilds ( 3% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Arbor Colossus ( 3% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Prophet of Kruphix ( 3% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Tymaret, the Murder King ( 3% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Artisan of Forms ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: a Theros rare/mythic that I haven't listed in my other predictions (predictionbook.com/predictions/21290 to 21335) ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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There will be at least one Mono Black Control (MBC) deck among the Pro Tour Theros Top 8 decks. ( 10% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-09-17; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Whip of Erebos ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Swan Song ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Anger of the Gods ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by prototrout on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Thoughtseize ( 96% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by prototrout on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Curse of the Swine ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by prototrout on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Xenagos, the Reveler ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by prototrout on 2013-10-13.
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My friend will get the right answer in algorithms class on 10/11/2013. ( 80% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-11; known on 2013-10-11; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-11.
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FF: we will decide to collectively keep track of various predictions ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by zzkt on 2013-10-08; known on 2013-10-12; judged right by zzkt on 2013-10-11.
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I will attend Kent Hack Enough 2013. ( 25% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-09; known on 2013-10-18; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-11.
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[redactedal] was the one calling my house this morning. ( 70% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-11; known on 2013-10-11; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-11.
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I will receive at least 50 special comments on my special Facebook status before I go to bed tomorrow. ( 20% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-10; known on 2013-10-12; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-11.
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I will already have a comment on my special Facebook status when I log on now. ( 60% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-10; known on 2013-10-10; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-10.
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Government shutdown will continue past Oct 8, 2013 (ie more than a week since its beginning) ( 79% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-10-04; known on 2013-10-08; judged right by foo on 2013-10-08.
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Les WIP nous ont aidé à ne pas trop paralléliser le développement sur nos stories. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ericlefevre on 2013-08-26; known on 2013-10-07; judged wrong by ericlefevre on 2013-10-08.
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The bay12 wormverse rp will start not less than 4 days from now ( 78% confidence )
Created by Flipnash on 2013-09-30; known on 2013-10-04; judged right by Flipnash on 2013-10-07.
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I will see a cat before I go to sleep (after the current time of 2PM). ( 87% confidence )
Created by alexaltair on 2013-10-03; known on 2013-10-04; judged right by alexaltair on 2013-10-04.
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I will meet with Dan about research today before 7pm ( 90% confidence )
Created by critch on 2013-10-03; known on 2013-10-04; judged right by critch on 2013-10-04.
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Facebook CFO will be fired or depart within a year (by September 1 2013) ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-04; known on 2013-09-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-10-03.
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Assuming Obama wins, Sheryl Sandberg will take a administration job ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-20; known on 2013-09-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-10-03.
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NFL: Tebow will be gone from the NY Jets before 2013 NFL season ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-14; known on 2013-09-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-10-03.
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Silk Road will directly support LiteCoin and at least one seller will accept them, within 2 years. ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-02; known on 2014-09-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-10-02.
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Someone I was just sitting with who left will be in another room I'm about to go visit. ( 5% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-02; known on 2013-10-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-02.
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At least 3 people taking part in the July2013 Leverage polyphasic adaptation will be sleeping polyphasically as of Oct 1, 2013. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-07-22; known on 2013-10-01; judged right by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-10-02.
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no new chapters of hpmor will be finished by October 1st ( 64% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Flipnash on 2013-09-13; known on 2013-10-01; judged right by apeterson on 2013-10-01.
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DE: Philipp Roesler will step down as chairman of the FDP before the federal election ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dhoe on 2013-01-17; known on 2013-10-01; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-10-01.
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US government shutdown will occur. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-09-29; known on 2013-10-03; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-10-01.
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The US will have a government shutdown sometime before June 2014. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-09-20; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-10-01.
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Accountability metrics will become a significant topic ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-28; known on 2013-09-28; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2013-09-30.
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Mobile app suites will emerge as a paid for layer on top of vanilla OS ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-28; known on 2013-09-28; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2013-09-30.
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The New England Patriots will win their September 29, 2013 game against the Atlanta Falcons. ( 80% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-09-30; known on 2013-09-30; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-09-30.
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The Buffalo Bills will win their September 29, 2013 game against the Baltimore Ravens. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-09-29; known on 2013-09-29; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-09-29.
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Patrick prefers mild curries to hot ones. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Leo on 2013-09-26; known on 2013-09-26; judged wrong by Leo on 2013-09-26.
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Unequally Yoked: Ideological Turing Test - Christian Entry #12 is written by an atheist. ( 90% confidence )
Created by modernalgebra on 2013-07-26; known on 2013-09-01; judged right by modernalgebra on 2013-09-25.
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Unequally Yoked: Ideological Turing Test Christian Entry 1 is written by an atheist. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by modernalgebra on 2013-07-26; known on 2013-09-01; judged right by modernalgebra on 2013-09-25.