Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 52% | 60% | 72% | 78% | 93% | 97% | |
Sample Size | 126 | 209 | 180 | 240 | 430 | 346 | 1531 |
Displaying all predictions made by Tapetum-Lucidum. Filter by:
-
Lee Sedol will win the final game against AlphaGo ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by waveman on 2016-03-15; known on 2016-03-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-15.
-
The fifth match with AlphaGo will go to the end game (as described by the commentators), and then AlphaGo will resign. ( 38% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by regex on 2016-03-15; known on 2016-03-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-15.
-
AlphaGo's meltdown in game 4 was not due to flaws in either the value or policy networks. ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2016-03-14; known on 2017-06-01; judged wrong by sole21000 on 2017-06-01.
-
AlphaGo will win the 5th match against Lee Sedol ( 68% confidence; 12 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by artir on 2016-03-13; known on 2016-03-16; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-15.
-
Vancouver power grid does not have a crisis in summer 2016 ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-12; known on 2016-11-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-30.
-
Lee Sedol attempts suicide ( 1% confidence; 21 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-12; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
-
By 2025, China's yuan will be backed by gold. ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by danpop on 2016-03-11; known on 2025-01-01.
-
Ke Jie loses to AlphaGo ( 87% confidence; 15 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-08.
-
AlphaGo will beat Lee Sodol in the three remaining matches of their initial 5. ( 74% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by earthbound01 on 2016-03-11; known on 2016-03-15; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-13.
-
I will not get SJS from modafinil ( 95% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RoryS on 2016-03-10; known on 2017-10-03; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-22.
-
No human will win at Go again against a top AI ( 90% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by c0rw11 on 2016-03-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-03-13.
-
AlphaGo defeats Lee Sedol by 3/5 games or more. ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by rhaps0dy on 2016-03-10; known on 2016-03-15.
-
Hillary Clinton will win the democratic nomination ( 88% confidence; 30 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sole21000 on 2016-03-09; known on 2016-07-26; judged right by grogo on 2016-07-26.
-
Alphago will win over Lee Sedol at least 4-1 ( 81% confidence; 17 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by sole21000 on 2016-03-09; known on 2016-03-14; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-15.
-
Romney is GOP nominee. ( 2% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-08; known on 2016-11-16; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
-
Romney runs third party. ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-08; known on 2016-11-16; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
-
Bitcoin price reaches $500 before June 2016 (1 BTC ≥ 500 USD) ( 41% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-22; known on 2016-06-01; judged right by jesselevine on 2016-06-01.
-
Bachar el Assad will lose power before the end of 2016 ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by leo_gri on 2016-03-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-01.
-
Tsipras will lose power before the end of 2016 ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by leo_gri on 2016-03-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
-
North American oil industry will collapse. Rig count will fall to zero. ( 7% confidence; 29 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-04; known on 2016-09-25; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-25.
-
US mandates backdoors in all crypto used on continental US ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.
-
Trump selects Christie as his running mate. ( 19% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-02; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-15.
-
Gender gap in software industry worse in 2016 than 2009. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-02; known on 2017-06-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-17.
-
At least one person will take offense to one of our 22nd century protest signs. ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-27; known on 2016-04-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-24.
-
Sanders will win the Democratic nomination ( 21% confidence; 29 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by LawrenceNewport on 2016-02-26; known on 2016-06-14; judged wrong by LawrenceNewport on 2016-06-14.
-
The UK will stay in the EU ( 67% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by spinkley on 2016-02-24; known on 2016-06-24; judged wrong by Reactionaryhistorian on 2016-06-24.
-
Guantanamo Bay detention facility to close before year end. ( 18% confidence; 12 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-23; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-31.
-
@realDonaldTrump will be suspended from Twitter for a week or longer before 2017 ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-22; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-31.
-
Kim Jung Un ousted, assassinated, or somehow loses power of North Korea, either internally or from some international influence before year end. ( 9% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-22; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
-
I will not have eaten any meat intentionally before a month from now. ( 72% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Sahil on 2016-02-21; known on 2016-03-21; judged right by Sahil on 2016-04-06.
-
I will not have eaten any meat intentionally for the next 30 years, starting now ( 29% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by arpanagarawal on 2016-02-21; known on 2046-02-21; judged wrong by Sahil on 2019-04-25.
-
Michael Bloomberg wins the 2016 presidential election. ( 1% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-21; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
-
Michael Bloomberg to enter the 2016 US presidential election as a candidate. ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-21; known on 2016-04-21; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-03-08.
-
Bernie Sanders will run as a third party/independent if he does not win the Democratic Nomination. ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Faceh on 2016-02-20; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by Faceh on 2016-07-12.
-
DJIA will have decreased by 40% of its market price on 20 Feb 2016 to 9835 or lower at a point between 20 Feb and 31 Dec ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by xplkqlkcassia on 2016-02-20; known on 2016-12-30; judged wrong by mortehu on 2016-12-31.
-
Greece will not announce it’s leaving the Euro in 2016 ( 93% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Temeraire on 2016-02-18; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Temeraire on 2017-01-01.
-
Either the average cost of a public university education in America will double, the median income of a 4-year-degree holder will fall to 125% of a high school diploma holder, or the expected value of a public university education will turn negative. ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JohnWittle on 2016-02-17; known on 2025-06-01.
-
Zika will be found not to be the (sole, proximate) cause of microencephaly for the recent cases in Brazil ( 22% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-02-17; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2021-01-01.
-
Another supreme court justice will die during Obama's presidency. ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-17; known on 2017-01-20; judged wrong by Faceh on 2017-01-20.
-
Eurozone sovereign debt crisis by 2022. ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-16; known on 2022-12-25.
-
Spain will default on its debt by 2022. ( 39% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-16; known on 2022-12-25.
-
President Bernie Sanders Assassinated ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-02-16; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
-
Kanye West will be U.S. President-elect before 2025 ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-14; known on 2025-01-01.
-
The S&P 500 Index will go below 1250 in 2016. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by equivrel-markets on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
-
The S&P 500 Index will close below 1600 at the end of 2016. ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by equivrel-markets on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
-
The S&P 500 will close below 1750 at the end of 2016. ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by equivrel-markets on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
-
The S&P 500 Index will close below 2000 at the end of 2016. ( 77% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by equivrel-markets on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
-
Federal Reserve cuts the Federal Funds rate at least once in 2016. ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by equivrel-markets on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
-
Federal Reserve will cut the Federal Funds rate to below zero levels (i.e. a range that includes below zero levels) at or before the March 2016 FOMC meeting. ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by equivrel-markets on 2016-02-14; known on 2016-03-17; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-17.
-
Federal Reserve will cut the Federal Funds rate to the [0, 0.25%] range at or before the March 2016 FOMC meeting. ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by equivrel-markets on 2016-02-14; known on 2016-03-17; judged wrong by equivrel-markets on 2016-03-17.
-
Today there will be >= 1 posts in my Facebook newsfeed about how Valentine's day is stupid, a secret ploy by corporations, or something something patriarchy. ( 82% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-02-14; known on 2016-02-15; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-02-15.
-
There will be at least one more gravitational wave detection announced in 2016 ( 86% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-06-15.
-
World will eliminate malaria by 2030. ( 69% confidence; 13 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-14; known on 2030-12-25.
-
Groupon will shut down, be acquired, or go into receivership before 2021. ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2016-02-14; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2021-11-18.
-
Obama will successfully appoint Scalia's appointment. ( 43% confidence; 33 wagers; 22 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
-
North Korea’s government will survive the year 2016 without large civil war/revolt. ( 91% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Temeraire on 2016-02-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
-
By January 2020, there will be a commercial house cleaning robots (like a Roomba) that can take voice commands to go to specific parts of the house and clean those. ( 63% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-13; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-08.
-
US will not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers. (I assume this means 100 US deaths in 2016) ( 87% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Temeraire on 2016-02-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Temeraire on 2017-01-01.
-
Jim Webb to be the next elected President of the US. ( 0% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-11; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
-
By 2030, Taiwan will be a part of China, without being a war. ( 15% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by danpop on 2016-02-11; known on 2030-01-01.
-
I will switch from Emacs as my primary text editor before 2017. ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-02-10; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2017-01-01.
-
Somerville will declare another snow emergency before March 1. ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-02-10; known on 2016-03-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-01.
-
When DeepDream for audio is invented, the output will cause seriously ill effects in humans like seizures. This will happen before 2020. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Houshalter on 2016-02-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
-
Before 2020, Chromium will go closed-source, or Google/Alphabet/Alphabet subsidiary employees will generally stop contributing code to the open-source Chromium project ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-01-01.
-
Some kind of “PHP in the browser” system will overtake node.js in usage by August 4, 2016 ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-02-09; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-08.
-
There will be another incident of at least one person getting struck and killed by a meteorite before 2017 ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-08; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-10.
-
A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2019 ( 50% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2020-06-01; judged right by deleteyourbrain on 2019-05-02.
-
A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2018 ( 34% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2019-06-01; judged right by Pablo on 2019-04-22.
-
A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020 ( 43% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2021-06-01; judged right by gwern on 2021-06-01.
-
A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2017 ( 9% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2018-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-06-01.
-
Vladimir Putin is not the President of Russia at the end of this prediction. ( 40% confidence; 16 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-02-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-01-02.
-
Sanders will endorse Clinton as the 2016 Democratic nominee. ( 53% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-05; known on 2016-10-31; judged right by Faceh on 2016-07-12.
-
The 2016 Iowa GOP Caucus result does not get overturned/revised such that Trump takes first place. ( 92% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2016-02-05; known on 2016-09-16; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-16.
-
MDMA-mediated psychotherapy receives FDA approval in the next twenty years. ( 47% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-03; known on 2037-01-01.
-
MDMA-mediated psychotherapy receives FDA approval in the next five years. ( 11% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-03; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-12.
-
Jeb Bush will be the next President-elect ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-03; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-02-21.
-
AlphaGo wins 5-0 in march ( 55% confidence; 34 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2016-02-02; known on 2016-03-30; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-13.
-
Donald Trump will shave his head any time before the general election (no GOP nomination needed) ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-01; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-11-08.
-
Donald Trump's pick for VP will be a woman. (No nomination needed; withdrawn if Trump does not pick.) ( 35% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-01; known on 2016-07-18; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-16.
-
Donald Trump's pick for VP will be Ivanka Trump. (No nomination needed; withdrawn if Trump does not pick.) ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-01; known on 2016-07-18; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
-
Leo wins an Academy Award. ( 75% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-01-31; known on 2016-02-29; judged right by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-29.
-
TPP ratified in Canada ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-31; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-17.
-
The FBI will recommend an indictment of Hillary Clinton before the 2016 general election ( 28% confidence; 19 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-30; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-05.
-
Bharat will be ranked 2nd in the world by 2020 for steel production. ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-29; known on 2020-12-25; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-12.
-
Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus. ( 99% confidence; 23 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-29; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2023-01-01.
-
AlphaGo defeats Lee Sedol in 3/5 or more games in March ( 64% confidence; 76 wagers; 39 comments )
Created by Jach on 2016-01-28; known on 2016-04-01; judged right by Jach on 2016-03-12.
-
Lee Sedol will win match against AlphaGo but lose at least one game ( 35% confidence; 25 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-28; known on 2016-05-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-12.
-
SpaceX successfully launches a reused rocket in 2016. (Payload reaches outer space, i.e. 100km) ( 67% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
-
ISIS will control less territory at the end of 2016 than it does right now ( 67% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
-
North Korea’s government will survive 2016 without large civil war/revolt ( 87% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
-
Ben Carson will be the next President-elect ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-28; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
-
2016 Election is Clinton vs Rubio. ( 12% confidence; 22 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-01-27; known on 2016-10-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-10-01.
-
2016 SpaceX successfully launches a reused rocket: ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-26; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
-
US will not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers 2016 ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-26; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
-
Summer Olympics in Brazil happen in 2016 ( 95% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-24; known on 2016-09-30; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-06.
-
Ubuntu 16.04 (or 16.03-5 if need be) released, with gcc 5, won't immediately be unusable colossal failure ( 83% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-24; known on 2016-07-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-04-21.
-
Michael Bloomberg will be the next President-elect ( 2% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-24; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
-
Global bear market(90% of stock indices will fall by 20% from 2015 peak) ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-21; known on 2016-12-16; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-11.
-
The S&P 500 will go below 1814 by February 1, 2016 ( 33% confidence; 22 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-21; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-02.
-
Sam gets me sick. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-20; known on 2016-01-24; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-24.