Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 60% | 63% | 75% | 100% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 25 |
Displaying all predictions made by solipsist. Filter by:
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The New York times will report it confirmed that Craig Wright is Satoshi Nakamoto by 2016-12-31 ( 18% confidence; 13 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by solipsist on 2015-12-09; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by solipsist on 2016-12-31.
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US 2016 Presidential election to be Trump v. Sanders ( 5% confidence; 40 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-17; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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“Hermione Granger” will not appear in the title of Chapter 122 of HPMOR. ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Zebranky on 2015-03-14; known on 2015-03-14; judged wrong by Zebranky on 2015-03-14.
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HP MOR: It will be revealed that Harry rederived the Pythagorean Theorem, on a Thursday, before April, and that it was fun ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by solipsist on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-03-14; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.
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HPMOR – Nicolas Flamel is Baba quote undying unquote Yaga ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-08; known on 2015-03-16; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.
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HP MOR: Quirrell was responsible for releasing the troll, but a third party redirected it to Hermione ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by solipsist on 2014-05-26; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.
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HP MoR: A Horcrux or Philosopher's stone was hidden Mount Etna ( 22% confidence )
Created by solipsist on 2014-02-27; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.
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HP MoR: Lesath Lestrange will cast Avada Kedavra ( 75% confidence )
Created by solipsist on 2014-02-27; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.
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HP MoR: The Remembrall went off because Harry forgot to study mind magic ( 25% confidence )
Created by solipsist on 2014-02-27; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.
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HP MoR: Mr. Hat & Cloak is Nicholas Flamel ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by solipsist on 2014-02-27; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.
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HP MoR: Mr. Hat & Cloak is Baba Yaga ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by solipsist on 2014-02-27; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.
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HP MoR: That Bellatrix is Black not Lestrange will be important. ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by booradleytron on 2014-03-06; known on 2014-10-16; judged wrong by Osuniev on 2015-03-28.
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HP MoR: Before Quirrell strengthened the security on the Restricted section, Harry used Library magic to collate information on Horcruxes from scattered tales ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by solipsist on 2014-03-06; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.
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HP MoR: Horcrux hijinks made Amycus Carrow go slightly Voldemorty ( 24% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by solipsist on 2014-03-06; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.
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HPMoR (up to ch. 98): Harry Potter will respect his contract/promise from ch.47 with Draco. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by solipsist on 2015-03-14.
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HPMoR (up to ch. 98): At some point, Harry Potter will use magic to directly modify his brain (ex. Memory Charm, False memory charm, etc.). ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.
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HPMoR (up to ch. 98): Voldemort will die (permanently). ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Unknowns on 2015-03-15.
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2014: No one will win $1billion from Warren Buffett by submitting a perfect NCAA pool ( 99% confidence; 16 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2014-01-23; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2014-03-27.
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HP MoR: neither Quirrellmort, nor Snape, nor Dumbledore, nor Lucius, nor Hermione is responsible for framing Hermione. ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-05-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by DrDiaphanous on 2015-02-19.
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“the entire north polar ice cap may well be completely gone in five years.” —Al Gore ( 12% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-11; known on 2014-04-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-04-01.