Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 0% | 50% | 100% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 13 |
Displaying all predictions made by aarmai19. Filter by:
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I will publish at least one scientific paper in a peer-reviewed journal before the end of 2023. ( 40% confidence )
Created by aarmai19 on 2023-04-05; known on 2024-01-01.
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I will get a grade of 1.7 or better in the final exam of Probability Theory ( 50% confidence )
Created by aarmai19 on 2022-10-26; known on 2023-04-01; judged wrong by aarmai19 on 2023-04-05.
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I will be infected with covid-19 during the next semester, i.e. between 24.10.22 and 14.2.23, and will have symptoms for at least 5 days. ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by aarmai19 on 2022-09-22; known on 2023-02-14; judged wrong by aarmai19 on 2023-04-05.
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My credence in strong longtermism will be up to 85 % after completing my essay ( 60% confidence )
Created by aarmai19 on 2021-02-05; known on 2021-03-16; judged wrong by aarmai19 on 2021-04-16.