Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 60% | 63% | 75% | 82% | 87% | 93% | |
Sample Size | 1292 | 1606 | 2197 | 2343 | 2286 | 671 | 10395 |
Displaying all predictions made by Cato. Filter by:
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[Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 3: Blachowicz vs. Santos] “Reach” to perform best ( 18% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-19; known on 2019-02-24; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-25.
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[Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 3: Blachowicz vs. Santos] None of the models to outperform chance ( 25% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-19; known on 2019-02-24; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-25.
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[Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 3: Blachowicz vs. Santos] Exactly two of the models to outperform chance ( 25% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-19; known on 2019-02-24; judged right by Cato on 2019-02-25.
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[Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 3: Blachowicz vs. Santos] Exactly one of the models to outperform chance ( 35% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-19; known on 2019-02-24; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-25.
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[Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 3: Blachowicz vs. Santos] All three models to outperform chance ( 15% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-19; known on 2019-02-24; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-25.
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[Fighting] Jon Jones to test positive for prohibited substances again in 2019 ( 24% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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[Fighting] Jon Jones to test positive for prohibited substances before UFC 235 ( 2% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-18; known on 2019-03-03; judged right by Cato on 2020-01-03.
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Before 1 January 2020, any EU member state besides the UK sets a date for a referendum on leaving the EU or the eurozone. ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2019-02-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-01-01.
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Politics, US – Mick Mulvaney ceases to be Chief of Staff before the 1st of January, 2020 ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2019-02-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-01-01.
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[Politics] Trump will be elected for a second term ( 45% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RedScharlach on 2019-02-15; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-11-07.
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[Politics] Trump will remain president for the expected duration of his first term ( 86% confidence; 15 wagers )
Created by RedScharlach on 2019-02-15; known on 2021-01-20; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-01-21.
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Saudi Aramco IPO by end of 2019 ( 20% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-13.
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Saudi Aramco IPO by end of 2020 ( 30% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-14; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-13.
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Saudi Aramco IPO by end of 2021 ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-14; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-13.
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[Personal] I will finish at least 52 books in 2019. ( 58% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.
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Donald Trump is still president ( 82% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by Coagulopath on 2019-02-13; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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No new NK nuclear weapon tests in 2019 ( 70% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Coagulopath on 2019-02-13; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.
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[Fighting: UFC on ESPN 1] All three models to outperform chance ( 20% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-12; known on 2019-02-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-18.
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[Fighting: UFC on ESPN 1] Exactly two of the three models to outperform chance ( 25% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-12; known on 2019-02-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-18.
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[Fighting: UFC on ESPN 1] Exactly one of the three models to outperform chance ( 30% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-12; known on 2019-02-18; judged right by Cato on 2019-02-18.
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[Fighting: UFC on ESPN 1] None of the three models to outperform chance ( 25% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-12; known on 2019-02-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-18.
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[Fighting: UFC on ESPN 1] “Reach” to perform best ( 20% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-12; known on 2019-02-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-18.
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[Fighting: UFC on ESPN 1] “Laplace” to perform best ( 30% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-12; known on 2019-02-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-18.
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[Fighting: UFC on ESPN 1] “Market” to perform best ( 50% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-12; known on 2019-02-18; judged right by Cato on 2019-02-18.
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No new states adopt the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-02-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by amadeu on 2019-03-18.
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Living thylacine specimen to be confirmed in 2019 ( 3% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-11; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.
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[Politics] At least one of the eight current main candidates for 2020 Democratic presidential nominee to withdraw within the next three months ( 34% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-05-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-05.
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[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 0 books ( 100% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-02-11.
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[Politics] Theresa May to lose a vote of no confidence in 2019 H1 ( 32% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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[Interest rates: After the US central bank's May 1 rate decision, the market probability of a funds rate INCREASE to be higher than that of a rate DECREASE at the] December 11 FOMC meeting ( 29% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-05-02; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-05.
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[Interest rates: After the US central bank's May 1 rate decision, the market probability of a funds rate INCREASE to be higher than that of a rate DECREASE at the] October 30 FOMC meeting ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-05-02; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-05.
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[Interest rates: After the US central bank's May 1 rate decision, the market probability of a funds rate INCREASE to be higher than that of a rate DECREASE at the] September 18 FOMC meeting ( 19% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-05-02; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-05.
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[Interest rates: After the US central bank's May 1 rate decision, the market probability of a funds rate INCREASE to be higher than that of a rate DECREASE at the] July 31 FOMC meeting ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-05-02; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-05.
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[Interest rates: After the US central bank's May 1 rate decision, the market probability of a funds rate INCREASE to be higher than that of a rate DECREASE at the] June 19 FOMC meeting ( 32% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-05-02; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-05.
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[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in March for which data are published ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-04-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in April for which data are published ( 59% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-05-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-05.
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[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in May for which data are published ( 60% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-06-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-03.
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[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in June for which data are published ( 70% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in July for which data are published ( 62% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-08-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-08-01.
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[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in August for which data are published ( 57% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-09-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-01.
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[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in September for which data are published ( 58% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-10-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-01.
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[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in October for which data are published ( 51% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-11-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-11-01.
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[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in November for which data are published ( 55% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-12-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-02.
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[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in December for which data are published ( 43% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-01-03.
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[Politics] Canada to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q2 EOQ ( 7% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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[Politics] The EU to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q1 EOQ ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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[Politics] The EU to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q2 EOQ ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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[Politics] The US to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q1 EOQ ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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[Politics] Canada to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q1 EOQ ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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[Politics] The US to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q2 EOQ ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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China's Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) to see at least one loan default by 2019 Q1 EOQ ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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China's Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) to see at least one loan default by 2019 Q2 EOQ ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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China's Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) to see at least one loan default by 2019 Q3 EOQ ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-01.
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China's Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) to see at least one loan default by 2019 EOY ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.
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[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 14 books ( 1% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-02-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-11.
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[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 13 books ( 3% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-02-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-11.
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[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 12 books ( 5% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-02-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-11.
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[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 11 books ( 10% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-02-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-11.
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[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 10 books ( 15% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-02-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-11.
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[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 9 books ( 25% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-02-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-11.
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[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 8 books ( 35% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-02-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-11.
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[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 7 books ( 45% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-02-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-11.
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[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 6 books ( 50% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-02-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-11.
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[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 5 books ( 55% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-02-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-11.
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[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 4 books ( 68% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-02-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-11.
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[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 3 books ( 83% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-02-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-11.
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[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 2 books ( 93% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-02-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-11.
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[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 1 book ( 97% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-02-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-11.
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Any UN member state to recognize Taiwan or ROC in 2019 ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-31; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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“Xi still in power” ( 96% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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“Bitcoin above Ethereum” ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-01.
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“Trump’s approval rating below 50” ( 79% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-01.
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“Beto O’Rourke leads the Democratic field” ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-01-02.
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[Personal] I will leave the country this weekend. ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-22; known on 2019-01-28; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-28.
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[Politics] Donald Trump to publicly express support for Taiwanese independence in 2019 ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-22; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.
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[Commodities] US crude oil inventories to be lower as of 2019-01-25 relative to 2019-01-18 ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-22; known on 2019-01-30; judged wrong by tony77 on 2019-01-31.
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[Commodities] US crude oil inventories to be lower as of 2019-01-18 relative to 2019-01-11 ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-22; known on 2019-01-25; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-28.
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[Fighting] Khabib Nurmagomedov to fight Conor McGregor in 2019 ( 9% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-22; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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[Fighting] Dominick Cruz to fight in 2019 ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-22; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.
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[Personal] I will get out of this city this weekend ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-22; known on 2019-01-28; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-28.
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The winner of the 2019 World Snooker Championship to be British ( 80% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-21; known on 2019-05-07; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-07.
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Emperor Akihito to abdicate as scheduled on 2019-04-30 ( 93% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-21; known on 2019-05-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-30.
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Taiwan to declare independence in 2019 ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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Taiwan to declare independence in 2019 H1 ( 2% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-21; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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Taiwan to declare independence in 2019 Q1 ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-21; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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[Politics] Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump's next meeting, should it occur before February EOM, to take place in Vietnam ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-21; known on 2019-03-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-02-28.
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[Politics] Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump to meet by February EOM ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-21; known on 2019-03-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-02-28.
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[Fighting] Khabib Nurmagomedov's next fight to be against Tony Ferguson, and to happen in 2019 H1 ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-21; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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“No additional countries will adopt a universal basic income” ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-01-03.
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[Personal] I will set a bench weight PR today. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-18; known on 2019-01-19; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-20.
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[Personal] All documents to be approved and returned by tomorrow EOD ( 80% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-17; known on 2019-01-19; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-18.
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[Personal] I will set a deadlift volume PR today. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-16; known on 2019-01-17; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-17.
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[Commodities] US crude oil production in 2019-01 to exceed production in 2018-12 ( 80% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-16; known on 2019-02-14; judged right by Cato on 2019-02-13.
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[Politics] Either Juan Guaidó or Nicolás Maduro to flee Venezuela in 2019 Q1. ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-15; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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[Politics] Nicolás Maduro to resign as president of Venezuela in 2019 Q1. ( 9% confidence; 15 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-15; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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[Personal] We will successfully settle on a book to read today. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-15; known on 2019-01-16; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-16.
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[Economy] S&P 500 to outperform Shanghai Stock Index in 2019 ( 46% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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[Economy] An OECD member to see its credit rating downgraded by S&P, Moody's, Fitch, or DBRS in 2019 H1 ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-14; known on 2019-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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[Economy] An OECD member to see its credit rating downgraded by S&P, Moody's, Fitch, or DBRS in 2019 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-02.
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[Economy] An OECD member to see its credit rating downgraded by S&P, Moody's, Fitch, or DBRS in 2019 Q1 ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-14; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.