Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 51% | 60% | 66% | 81% | 92% | 97% | |
Sample Size | 137 | 234 | 231 | 257 | 634 | 119 | 1612 |
Displaying all predictions made by PseudonymousUser. Filter by:
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Gigabyte Marines will make it out of groups. (LoL). ( 50% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26; known on 2019-10-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.
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J-Team will make it out of groups. (LoL). ( 30% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26; known on 2019-10-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.
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Griffin will make it out of groups. (LoL). ( 40% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26; known on 2019-10-12; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.
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C9 will make it out of groups. (LoL). ( 60% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26; known on 2019-10-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.
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RNG will make it out of groups. (LoL). ( 45% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26; known on 2019-10-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.
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SKT will make it out of groups. (LoL). ( 65% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26; known on 2019-10-12; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.
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FunPlus Phoenix will make it out of groups. (LoL). ( 90% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26; known on 2019-10-12; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.
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Fnatic will make it out of group stage. (LoL). ( 60% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26; known on 2019-10-12; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.
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G2 will make it out of group stage. (LoL). ( 80% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26; known on 2019-10-12; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.
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Team Liquid will make it out of group stage. (LoL). ( 60% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26; known on 2019-10-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.
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Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022 ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-08-12; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-01-01.
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I won't deal with main project for over 2 hours tomorrow ( 90% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-06-13; known on 2019-06-14; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-06-20.
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Trump wins a second term in office ( 48% confidence; 29 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-06-05; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by avi on 2020-11-07.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2019-05-04). ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-04-29; known on 2019-05-11; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-05-12.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep this week (starting the night of 2019-04-22). ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-04-22; known on 2019-04-29; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-04-29.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep this week (starting the night of 2019-04-13). ( 6% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-04-14; known on 2019-04-20; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-04-22.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep this week (starting the night of 2019-04-06). ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-04-06; known on 2019-04-13; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-04-14.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep this week (starting the night of 2019-03-30). ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-29; known on 2019-04-06; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-04-06.
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Alex Trebek will die before July 1st, 2019. ( 27% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by skateboard34 on 2019-03-25; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by skateboard34 on 2019-07-01.
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Andrew Yang will win the Democratic nomination. ( 8% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by skateboard34 on 2019-03-25; known on 2020-07-20; judged wrong by skateboard34 on 2020-03-05.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep this week (starting the night of 2019-03-22). ( 7% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-03-29; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-29.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Pete Buttigieg ( 17% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davatk on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-09-06; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-09-08.
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The web page had different behavior before a recent code change. ( 75% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-16.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep this week (starting the night of 2019-03-15). ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-15; known on 2019-03-22; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-22.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep this week (starting the night of 2019-03-08). ( 8% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-09; known on 2019-03-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-15.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep this week (starting the night of 2019-03-01). ( 10% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-01; known on 2019-03-08; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-09.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep this week (starting the night of 2019-02-22). ( 8% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-02-23; known on 2019-03-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-01.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2019-02-15). ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-02-16; known on 2019-02-22; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-02-23.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2019-02-08). ( 18% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-02-09; known on 2019-02-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-02-16.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2019-02-01). ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-02-08; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-02-09.
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“Xi still in power” ( 96% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Tom Brady is under 40. ( 60% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-26; known on 2019-01-26; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-26.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2019-01-25). ( 15% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-25; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-02-02.
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[Politics] Trump will choose not to run for a second term in 2020. ( 14% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by KangaRookie on 2019-01-22; known on 2020-11-05; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-11-04.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2019-01-18). ( 10% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-18; known on 2019-01-25; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-25.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2019-01-11). ( 15% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-11; known on 2019-01-18; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-18.
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The US government shutdown will end before April 1, 2019. ( 93% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-05; known on 2019-04-01; judged right by amadeu on 2019-01-25.
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The US government shutdown will end before March 1, 2019. ( 78% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-05; known on 2019-03-01; judged right by amadeu on 2019-01-25.
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The US government shutdown will end before February 1, 2019. ( 66% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-05; known on 2019-02-01; judged right by amadeu on 2019-01-25.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2019-01-04). ( 15% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-04; known on 2019-01-11; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-11.
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I will move before 2020 ( 20% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-03; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-01-01.
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I will visit Japan before 2020 ( 94% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-03; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2019-04-07.
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I will still be using NixOS in three months ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01; known on 2019-04-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2019-04-01.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2018-12-28). ( 33% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-12-28; known on 2019-01-04; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-04.
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The B's will be at the meeting. ( 60% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-12-27; known on 2018-12-27; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-12-27.
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The gift card belongs to my sister. ( 90% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-12-26; known on 2018-12-27; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-12-27.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2018-12-21). ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-12-19; known on 2018-12-28; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-12-28.
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Tumblr will revert the decision to ban pornography (to take effect in Dec 17) in the next 3 months. ( 33% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jazzsolo on 2018-12-03; known on 2019-03-03; judged wrong by jazzsolo on 2019-03-04.
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I will successfully make it through “No Nut November” without masturbating. ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-11-01; known on 2018-12-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-11-11.
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[Next German conservative party (CDU) leader will be…] Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2018-10-30; known on 2018-12-08; judged right by amadeu on 2018-12-08.
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Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX) ( 3% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Leo on 2018-10-23; known on 2028-10-23.
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I get at least a raise of at least 9%. ( 30% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-10-10; known on 2018-11-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-10-19.
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Still at my current employer a year from now. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-10-10; known on 2019-10-10; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2019-10-10.
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Donald Trump will be reelected. ( 44% confidence; 22 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by alvastarr on 2018-07-26; known on 2020-11-05; judged wrong by avi on 2020-11-07.
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OpenAI Five will win the upcoming benchmark match ( 67% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by enolan on 2018-07-24; known on 2018-08-05; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-08-05.
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I will be asked to sign work contract before my trip to Greece and without pushing HR representatives. ( 80% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-05-20; known on 2018-05-30; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-05-30.
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I will get an offer for contract work with $60/hour rate. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-05-20; known on 2018-05-22; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-05-24.
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Iran to win the World Cup ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-20; known on 2018-07-16; judged wrong by Cato on 2018-07-16.
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Technology – The price of a bitcoin is over $10,000 at the end of 2018. ( 26% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
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Trump is president at years end ( 91% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
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I will get pinged for lunch next week (Monday-Thursday). ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-04-20; known on 2018-04-26; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-04-26.
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World War 3 to begin in 2018. (Formal war involving at least three large, developed nations, with some on separate sides). ( 0% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-04-16; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2019-01-01.
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I will be in a romantic relationship with a woman whom I love and who loves me at some point between now and my 30th birthday. ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-04-10; known 21 days ago.
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Still no first kiss before my 30th birthday. ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-04-10; known 21 days ago.
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Donald Trump will lose the next election. ( 62% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-04-03; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-11-07.
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Still no first kiss before my 25th birthday. ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-04-02; known on 2018-10-10; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-10-10.
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I will still be using NixOS in three months ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by enolan on 2018-03-23; known on 2018-06-23; judged right by enolan on 2018-06-24.
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Donald Trump will have a face-to-face meeting with Kim Jong-un “by May”. ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-03-09; known on 2018-04-30; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-04-30.
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“By end of year Ripple will be LOL-ing above 1 trillion market cap.” https://twitter.com/JohnyQi/status/956083850928640000 ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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I will keep the laptop I ordered ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-21; known on 2018-02-21; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-02-22.
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The investigation run by Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller is still ongoing by the end of 2018 (and is still run by Mueller, e.g., Mueller has not died, or been removed, or formally concluded his investigation). ( 67% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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The RWBY Wiki entry for Cinder Fall lists her as “Deceased” at the conclusion of Volume 6. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-14; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-02-01.
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I will not do any real computer work for more than an hour tomorrow ( 98% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-08; known on 2018-01-09; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-09.
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Kim Jong Un is leader of North Korea on 12/31/18 ( 90% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-03; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Current Iranian regime is overthrown by April 2018 ( 6% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2018-01-02; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2018-04-02.
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Episode 4 will end in a “don't trust technology, follow the heart” type ending ( 65% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-12-31; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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Jeff Sessions will be AG on 12/31/18 ( 51% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-29; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Elizabeth Warren will win the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination ( 8% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-27; known on 2020-10-01; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
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Bernie Sanders will win the 2020 Dem. Presidential nomination ( 10% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2020-09-01; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
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Elizabeth Warren will run for President in 2020 ( 62% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2020-10-01; judged right by JTPeterson on 2019-04-10.
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Hillary Clinton will announce candidacy for the 2020 US Presidential Election ( 5% confidence; 19 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-12-19; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2019-04-10.
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Democrats to gain control of US Senate in 2018 elections ( 43% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2017-12-14; known on 2018-11-07; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2018-11-07.
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Roy Moore to win senate special election ( 65% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2017-11-27; known on 2017-12-15; judged wrong by objclone on 2017-12-13.
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The 2017 TIME Person of the Year will be related to #MeToo, Harvey Weinstein, and/or the broader anti-sexual harassment movement. ( 45% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-11-26; known on 2017-12-07; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-12-06.
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Hillary Clinton will be indicted for the sale of Uranium to Russia ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Gibs on 2017-11-12; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2018-07-02.
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FYI https://pbindex.neocities.org/ is updated ( 50% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-10-27; known on 2017-10-27.
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I will go two weeks without reading logged-in Twitter this year ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-07-15; known on 2018-01-01.
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Bitcoin: trades above 6k USD at GDAX at some point before the end of the year. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-10-20; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-10-20.
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social movement with explicit reference to kyriarchy as a tenet commits mass murder (>10,000 people) ( 9% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-18; known on 2042-01-01.
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I will ride in a level 4+ autonomous vehicle before 2021 ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-19; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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I will ride in a level 4+ autonomous vehicle before 2020 ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-01-01.
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I will ride in a level 4+ autonomous vehicle before 2019 ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-19; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
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I will ride in a level 4+ autonomous vehicle before 2018 ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-19; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence ( 3% confidence; 22 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-12; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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I will move before 2019 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-10-08; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
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I will use IRC in 2018 ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-10-08; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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https://predictionbook.com/predictions/186415 + Stephen Paddock targeted the country music festival because Paddock or ISIS or a co-conspirator believed the attendees were more likely to be Trump voters or supportive of bomb-ISIS policies ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-10-08; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
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Stephen Paddock was a jihadi, or affiliated with ISIS, or carried out the Las Vegas attack on behalf of ISIS ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-10-08; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
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(Rick&Morty): Orgu vf gur pybar ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2017-10-04; known on 2019-10-04.
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news.ycombinator.com will shut down or be offline >= 1 week before 2019 ( 13% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-09-19; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.