Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 53% | 65% | 78% | 86% | 94% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 616 | 437 | 419 | 458 | 711 | 175 | 2816 |
Displaying all predictions made by JoshuaZ. Filter by:
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“Moore's Law will have played out by 2032” —Charles Stross ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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I will drop out of college. ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-13; known on 2014-03-31; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2014-03-31.
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I scored a 90 or higher on my calc quiz today. ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ahartell on 2012-01-12; known on 2012-01-26; judged right by ahartell on 2012-01-17.
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Google Search will be inaccessible to US visitors for at least 4 hours due to a “blackout” protesting pending legislation, before 2013 ( 5% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
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Iran will not successfully test a nuclear weapon in 2012. ( 93% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by smijer on 2012-01-11; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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USD worth over 3 EUR ( 18% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kish on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-12-21; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-21.
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No elected government will hold power in Egypt in 2012 ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by _W_ on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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“9. Facebook hits 1 billion users” —Brian Breslin ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-08; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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“3. LivingSocial catches up to Groupon” —Brian Breslin ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-08; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Copyright ruled unconstitutional by a US court before 2016. ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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The bitcoin protocol will have a fatal weakness that is discovered, leading to the crash of the bitcoin economy. End of year prediction. ( 3% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by kiba on 2012-01-07; known on 2012-12-30; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-31.
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Bitcoin >$9000 by February. ( 0% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.
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The Church of Kopimism will have over 20k members by 2013. Prediction will be withdrawn if membership stats aren't available. ( 57% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.
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General AI will not be built by 2013 ( 97% confidence; 19 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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At least one of my New Years predictions will turn out to be correct for reasons that are surprising to me. ( 80% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-27.
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I will have a total LessWrong karma of at least 10,000 by the end of the year. ( 75% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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My mother will not read any books by Steven Pinker this year ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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I will not become a vegetarian in 2012 ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-27.
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In 2012, I will go to at least two open viewing nights for telescopes in the greater Boston area ( 58% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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The Hubble Telescope will continue functioning though 2012 ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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No contact with intelligent aliens be made in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 31 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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Russia will lose at least one rocket launch in 2012 ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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Humans will continue to have at least one functioning probe on Martian surface or a satellite around Mars for all of 2012 ( 97% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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I will coauthor at least one paper on integer complexity in 2013 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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No improvement in factoring integers in a classical setting that has better time-asymptotics than the best current ones will be made in 2012 ( 85% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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There will be improvement in efficient matrix multiplication in 2012 that will be discussed in at least one of the following blogs: Combinatorics and more, Shetl-Optimized, Godel's Lost Letter. ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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The relationship between P and BQP will not be resolved in 2012. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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The Riemann Hypothesis will not be proven in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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In 2012, Clashes between North Korea and South Korea will result in fatalities, or the North Korean government will collapse. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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I will be murdered during my stay in Mexico City. ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-17.
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LessWrong: By 2013, date last edited shows up next to comments that have been edited. (Would foil this evil plan, for instance. http://bit.ly/w0lkyQ ) ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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A previously unreleased song by Michael Jackson will be released sometime before 2013. ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.
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The mens' rights movement will be mentioned by name in a Time or Newsweek article sometime during 2012. ( 33% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.
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“There will be a major war, starting in the Middle East. Israel will lose (75%). China will probably join in on the radical-Muslim side. Iran will try to use its nukes but they will be duds. Israel will not use theirs…” —jdgalt ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-01-01.
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Republican 2012 nominee not Ron Paul or Gary Johnson; Tea Party splits between Republican & Libertarian party; Obama elected ( 18% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-07.
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Tea Party splits between Republican & Libertarian party ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-07.
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Republican 2012 nominee not Ron Paul or Gary Johnson ( 97% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-07.
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'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' —Kevin ( 14% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-01; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
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MoR: ch 78 will mention Amanda Knox ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-20; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-03-20.
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Steve Jobs’s will shall donate >=50% of his wealth to charity ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Steve Jobs's will shall donate 0-10% of his wealth to charity ( 57% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Steve Jobs's will shall donate >=99% of his wealth to charity. ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Germany will not leave Euro by end of 2012 ( 92% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by procran on 2011-11-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2013-01-01.
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The James Webb Telescope will launch successfully by the end of 2019 ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Bashar al-Assad will not be president of Syria on Dec 31 2012 ( 36% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by georgesdelatour on 2012-01-01; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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'I expect to see an impressive proto-AGI within the next 8 years' —Shane Legg ( 20% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-31; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2019-12-31.
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Reddit: “teaching daughter to ride bike” pic is reposted as “autistic daughter”. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-30; known on 2012-04-30; judged right by muflax on 2012-03-31.
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Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP. ( 86% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-29; known on 2025-12-29.
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In 20 years, mainland China's TI Corruption Perceptions Index will be lower (better) than the USA. ( 22% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2031-12-28.
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The Yellowstone Supervolcano will have a magmatic eruption before 2023 ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-27; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB). ( 20% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-24; known on 2021-12-24; judged wrong by gwern on 2021-12-24.
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An alternative to the US-based Domain Name System will be created and it will be used more widely than the US-based system before 2015. ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-21; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2015-01-01.
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SOPA will become US law and either Youtube or Megaupload will be shutdown. ( 24% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Christopher on 2012-06-25.
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SOPA will pass through congress, and then it will not be vetoed. ( 49% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Grognor on 2011-12-21; known on 2012-10-16; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-07-26.
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Steve Ballmer will be CEO of Microsoft at the end of 2012 ( 78% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by faws on 2011-12-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by faws on 2013-01-01.
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Ron Paul will win the Iowa Caucus. ( 39% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2011-12-20; known on 2012-01-03; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-01-04.
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Within 5 years biometrics will displace passwords (IBM “5 in 5” http://asmarterplanet.com/blog/2011/12/the-next-5-in-5-you-will-never-need-a-password-again.html) ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-12-20; known on 2016-12-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-12-20.
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GJP: #1054 Will a North Korean or multinational military force fire on, invade, or enter South Korea before 1 June 2012? ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-06-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-06-01.
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GJP: #1051 Will Mario Monti resign, lose re-election/confidence vote, or vacate the office of Prime Minister of Italy before 1 January 2013? ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-19; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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gwern.net total traffic will average <2000 daily visits in the week a year from now. ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-17; known on 2012-12-17; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-17.
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I will enjoy Sherlock Holmes tonight. ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-15; known on 2011-12-16; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-15.
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The considerable increase in this sites visitors will inspire some activity in promoting the product. I predict a prediction book facebook page by Dec 31st 2011 ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by leejhancox on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-12-31; judged unknown by leejhancox on 2011-12-14.
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If Romney wins the Republican candidacy, then Obama will publicly offer him a bet sometime during the 2012 presidential campaign. This prediction will be withdrawn if the antecedent proposition is false. ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-14; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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I will study electronics for at least an hour tomorrow. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-13; known on 2011-12-15; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-14.
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I will study actuarial science for at least 2 hours tomorrow. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-13; known on 2011-12-15; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-14.
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Chrome will be the most widely used browser during July 2012 according to StatCounter. ( 68% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by faws on 2011-12-12; known on 2012-08-05; judged right by faws on 2012-07-31.
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PredictionBook's email notification system will be fixed by the end of this year. ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-12; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-02-29.
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Harvard's yield for the class of 2016 will be 76% or below. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-11; known on 2012-05-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-05-20.
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A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020. ( 21% confidence; 21 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by ceterisparibus on 2011-11-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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“[Hillary] Clinton will be Obama's running mate” ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-10; known on 2012-09-03; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-03.
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I will reach 1000 karma on LW (http://lesswrong.com/user/RobertLumley) by June 2nd, the anniversary of my first post on LW. ( 67% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2011-12-08; known on 2012-06-02; judged right by RobertLumley on 2012-04-06.
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France to lose AAA credit rating before midnight ET 30 Jun 2012 —Intrade ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-08; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-13.
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Lady Gaga will launch her next tour in Omaha, NE. ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Øx on 2011-08-29; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by saturn on 2012-03-29.
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Logos01 will commit suicide in 5 years. ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-05; known on 2016-12-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-12-05.
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Alcor's Patient Trust Fund will be solvent in 2061. ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2061-01-01.
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Alcor's Patient Trust Fund will be solvent in 2041. ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2041-01-01.
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Alcor's Patient Trust Fund will be solvent in 2021. ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2021-01-02.
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The majority of Alcor cryopreservations as of 2011 will have maintained preservation continuity as of 2061. ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2061-01-01.
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The majority of Alcor cryopreservations as of 2011 will have maintained preservation continuity as of 2041. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2041-01-01.
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The majority of Alcor cryopreservations as of 2011 will have maintained preservation continuity as of 2021. ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
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lukeprog will make >2 predictions on PB during 2012. ( 64% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-04.
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Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070 ( 22% confidence; 12 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-04; known on 2070-01-01.
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Jimmy Wales and/or the WMF and/or any of its employees will be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize within 34 years. ( 24% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2045-12-04.
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The singularity will occur by the year 2070 ( 45% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pleeppleep on 2011-12-02; known on 2070-01-01.
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None of the students with extra time will use all their extra time. ( 75% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-02; known on 2011-12-02; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-02.
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The US will be at war with Iran by 2014 ( 18% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Isaac on 2011-12-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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brazil84 will approve my comment. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-30; known on 2011-12-03; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-30.
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Greece will leave the Euro currency and return to the “Drachme” latest by mid 2012. ( 20% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by herb on 2011-11-29; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by Michael Stevens on 2012-07-01.
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Carrie Fisher will die before Harrison Ford. ( 46% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-28; known on 2040-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-12-28.
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“Newt Gingrich to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012.” -Intrade ( 18% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-28; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-11-10.
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Mitt Romney will be the next President of the United States. He will win the Republican nomination and win the general election in 2012. ( 31% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by capcuervo on 2011-11-26; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-07.
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By 2035, the Voynich Manuscript will be deciphered and found to be written in a minority language or an Italian dialect still spoken in Italy today. ( 13% confidence; 6 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-24; known on 2035-01-01.
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By 2035, the Voynich Manuscript will be determined to be written in an archaic form of a language or dialect currently spoken in Italy. ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-24; known on 2035-01-01.
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By five years from now, (independent) transcriptome data from human post-mortem samples will confirm the finding that the expression of DRD2 is significantly upregulated in the striatum during development (from birth to >= day 100, at alpha 0.05), conting ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Porejide on 2011-11-24; known on 2016-11-24.
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My guinea pig will learn to move in a circle on command in 2 months time. ( 37% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by roshni on 2011-11-23; known on 2012-01-30; judged wrong by roshni on 2012-03-05.
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By 2050, the Great Red Spot will no longer be the largest storm on Jupiter. ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-23; known on 2050-01-01.
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The USA will refuse again to commit to new Emmissions Regulations at COP17 ( 70% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by general on 2011-11-17; known on 2011-12-09; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-14.
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Puella Magi Madoka Magica will win a Nihon Taisho SF award ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-21; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-03.
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The US$ will touch parity with the Euro (1€=1US$) before the end of 2012 ( 33% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by herb on 2011-11-20; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-31.