Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 53% | 65% | 78% | 86% | 94% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 616 | 437 | 419 | 458 | 711 | 175 | 2816 |
Displaying all predictions made by JoshuaZ. Filter by:
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At least 10k people are living on Mars by the end of 2049. ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Mathieu_Putz on 2020-06-06; known on 2049-12-31.
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COVID, UK – For at least one day in June, daily deaths exceed 400. ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-06; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2020-07-02.
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Donald Trump to win reelection with at least 49 US states voting for him. ( 2% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-04; known on 2020-11-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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Humans will have landed on Mars alive by the 31-12-2027. (Landed in the sense that the vehicle/capsule in which they live, physically touches martian soil.) ( 10% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Mathieu_Putz on 2020-06-03; known on 2027-12-31; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-09.
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Some vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 will have successfully passed phase 3 trials by the 15th of October 2020. ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mathieu_Putz on 2020-05-28; known on 2020-10-22; judged wrong by Mathieu_Putz on 2021-03-21.
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Las Vegas casinos will be closed at some point in 2020 due to a second wave of the coronavirus ( 53% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-05-26; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by NickN on 2020-08-16.
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Tech – Crew Dragon launches with human occupants on the 27th of May. ( 39% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-23; known on 2020-05-28; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-05-28.
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OoTS: MitD is the Snarl. ( 15% confidence; 11 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-06-30; known on 2022-01-01.
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Donald Trump will be elected president in the 2020 presidential elections. ( 50% confidence; 18 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by korakos on 2020-04-30; known on 2020-11-05; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-07.
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Kim Jong Un confirmed dead or vegetative state by end of June 2020 ( 23% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-04-26; known on 2020-06-30; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-01-04.
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Sweden to have a stay-at-home lockdown by the end of April ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-04-10; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-05-01.
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“The Essential Workers” (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020. ( 40% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-04-10; known on 2020-12-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-12-15.
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[Geopolitics] Venezuelan regime change (defined as Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) (born 23 November 1962) not being President of Venezuela) within one year ( 23% confidence; 23 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2020-04-03; known on 2021-04-03; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2021-04-04.
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Trump war with China, Trump removal, or delayed/non-existent elections by 2020. Details in comments. ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-20; known on 2021-01-21; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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One of the five things I predicted with Michael will come true during the next four years (detailed in comments). ( 60% confidence; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-11-09; known on 2020-01-20.
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Lab-cultured red protein that emulates beef will become commonplace, and sold in typical grocery stores, *by 2025*. ( 29% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sungk2048 on 2020-01-18; known on 2025-01-19.
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A third-party candidate gets more than 5% of the vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election ( 8% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-14; known on 2020-11-07; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-11-07.
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Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars ( 19% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-01-01.
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Donald Trump will NOT be re-elected ( 55% confidence; 26 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by tcsmithbiz@yahoo.com on 2019-12-23; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2020-11-07.
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The Baltimore Ravens will win the Super Bowl ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by tcsmithbiz@yahoo.com on 2019-12-23; known on 2020-02-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-02-15.
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Pete Buttigieg will win the Democratic Nomination ( 14% confidence; 18 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by tcsmithbiz@yahoo.com on 2019-12-23; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-09-06.
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oil consumption will remain at or above current levels for at least 20 years ( 45% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kjaques on 2019-11-30; known on 2039-11-30.
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Pete Buttigieg will win the democratic primary ( 17% confidence; 18 wagers )
Created by skuthus on 2019-11-27; known on 2020-06-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-17.
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US Politics: Republican nominee for Vice President to be Mike Pence ( 73% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-08-27; judged right by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
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[US politics: Within the next year, Donald Trump's tax returns] to be obtained by the House or Senate ( 50% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-05; known on 2020-05-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-06.
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[US politics: Within the next year, Donald Trump's tax returns] to be released to the public ( 32% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-05; known on 2020-05-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-06.
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Gwern is Jim Babcock. ( 13% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by deleteyourbrain on 2019-04-29; known on 2025-04-28.
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[US politics: As of 2019-07-25] Andrew Yang will have been listed by PredictIt as the number 4 contender for the Democratic Party nomination for at least one day ( 59% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-26; known on 2019-07-26; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-25.
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SLS core to be finished by end of 2019. ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2019-04-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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[US politics] Someone other than Donald Trump to win at least one state in the 2020 Republican presidential primary ( 25% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-16; known on 2020-08-27; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-09-15.
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[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for March 2019 to exceed 50% ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-04-30; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-05-03.
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The US government shutdown will end before March 1, 2019. ( 78% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-05; known on 2019-03-01; judged right by amadeu on 2019-01-25.
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I will have at least one more math paper published before the end of 2019. ( 69% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-12-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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Vladimir Putin won't be the President of the Russian Federation by March 2024 (i.e. he won't be able to finish his 4th term) ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Stommelen on 2018-12-21; known on 2024-03-17.
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Britain will have a second referendum on “Brexit.” ( 18% confidence; 19 wagers )
Created by balfours_ghost on 2018-12-11; known on 2019-03-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-04-24.
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Runaway methane release from permafrost and other sources to result in near extinction or imminent extinction of humanity by August 15, 2038 ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-08-02; known on 2038-08-15.
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Republicans will win back both chambers of congress in 2022 ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by SeriousPod on 2018-08-02; known on 2022-11-08.
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Democrats will not take the senate in 2018 ( 63% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by SeriousPod on 2018-08-02; known on 2018-11-07; judged right by lukefreeman on 2018-11-07.
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The Keyholder will win the Heaven or Hell prestige class contest on Giants in the Playground ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-07-04; known on 2018-08-30; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2019-12-22.
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Donald Trump will be reelected. ( 44% confidence; 22 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by alvastarr on 2018-07-26; known on 2020-11-05; judged wrong by avi on 2020-11-07.
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Tesla goes bankrupt sometime before 01/01/2020. ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by FestiveBleak on 2018-07-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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SpaceX will successfully recover a fairing using its net catching system by April 15 2019 ( 55% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-07-25; known on 2019-04-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2019-04-16.
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Donald Trump will explicitly express support for Taiwanese independence this year. ( 6% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-07-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-02.
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UK politics: general election called in next two months ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2018-07-10; known on 2018-09-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-10.
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SLS to be launched at least once or to be canceled outright by May 15, 2025 ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-07-05; known on 2025-05-16.
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Obergefell v Hodges effectively overturned by December 31, 2025 ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-06-30; known on 2026-01-01.
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Roe v. Wade and related precedents (e.g. Casey) effectively overturned by December 31, 2025. ( 42% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-06-29; known on 2026-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-18.
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There will be national or global economic data that is widely regarded (by econ bloggers and mainstream media outlets) as a bursting of the higher education bubble. ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dnti808 on 2018-06-29; known on 2019-06-29; judged wrong by dnti808 on 2019-06-30.
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Prediction: By December 31st, 2019, AMD will sell a commercially available 48-core, 96-thread desktop CPU, compatible with currently available motherboards, costing $2,000 USD or less (before tax, shipping, cooler etc). ( 55% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-06-29; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03.
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Donald Trump to issue Executive Order ending separation of children from their families at the border by Monday, June 25 ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-06-20; known on 2018-06-26; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-06-22.
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Politics, US – The US Federal government announces that the policy of separating migrant children from their parents as a routine practice is to be ended before the end of July 2018. ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-16; known on 2018-08-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-08-12.
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By January 1, 2031, known that there is no odd perfect number less than 10^2500 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-06-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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Politics – Trump claims that the North Koreans were not serious/deceptive about the meeting between him and Kim Jong Un at some point before the end of June 2018. ( 39% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-10; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-07-07.
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Us declares war on Iran by september 2020 ( 18% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tschescheier on 2018-05-12; known on 2020-09-01; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-09-05.
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Before 1 January 2019, the US federal government bans the manufacture, importation, possession, or sale of bump stocks. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-11; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Demonstration of energy-positive fusion power plant by the end of 2035. ( 31% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2018-05-10; known on 2035-12-31.
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James Webb Space Telescope to breach its $8bn cost cap. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-05-03; known on 2018-07-16; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.
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Trump wins Nobel ( 10% confidence; 41 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2018-05-03; known on 2030-01-01.
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Rationalist Community – Slate Star Codex gets mentioned in the New York Times (by someone other than Ross Douthat) between 1st of July and end of 2018 ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.
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Gene drive found in the wild due to either unknown or rogue scientist in the wild before any gene drive released by a major NGO. ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-04-20; known on 2050-01-01.
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The first flight of the Block 5 Falcon 9 carrying the Bangabandhu 1 will successfully orbit the payload and perform a low stress landing. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-04-17; known on 2018-05-15; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-05-15.
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World War 3 to begin in 2018. (Formal war involving at least three large, developed nations, with some on separate sides). ( 0% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-04-16; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2019-01-01.
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Within 6 months, a bombing campaign will start in Iran. ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2018-03-24; known on 2018-07-24; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.
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Electron rocket to launch before the end of March. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-22; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by Jotto999 on 2018-04-01.
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Politics, UK – Before the end of 2018, UK government representative states that the view of the government is that the Russian government is likely not responsible for the attempted murder of Sergei Skripal ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-02.
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A second Falcon Heavy launch by the end of 2018 ( 85% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-02-20; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2019-01-01.
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Politics, US – John Kelly is White House Chief of Staff through the end of February 2018. ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-02-10; known on 2018-03-01; judged right by ccokeefe on 2018-03-01.
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A commercial Falcon Heavy launch to take place before the end of 2018. ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-01-25; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by enolan on 2019-01-20.
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North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022 ( 5% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2018-01-19; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2022-01-01.
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The US Democratic Party wins a majority in the US Senate after the 2018 Midterm elections ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known on 2018-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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The investigation run by Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller is still ongoing by the end of 2018 (and is still run by Mueller, e.g., Mueller has not died, or been removed, or formally concluded his investigation). ( 67% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Congress will not extend copyright durations in 2018. ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Temeraire on 2018-01-12; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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At least one country will decide its head of state by a reality show with real time votes by 2050 ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by volis on 2018-01-11; known on 2050-01-01.
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Violent act resulting in at least 2 deaths in Times Square between now and 2 AM 1/1/19 Eastern Time ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-31; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01.
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[No new polio cases in the semester ending] 30 June 2018 ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-23; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-03-15.
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[No new polio cases in the semester ending] 30 June 2019 ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-23; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-05.
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[No new polio cases in the semester ending] 31 December 2019 ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-23; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-08-14.
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[No new polio cases in the semester ending] 31 December 2018 ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-23; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-08-27.
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[No new polio cases in the semester ending] 30 June 2020 ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-23; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-06-11.
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Falcon Heavy to launch (successfully or not) in January 2018. ( 52% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2017-12-21; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-02.
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Donald Trump will not be impeached throughout his first term. ( 65% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Verres on 2017-12-21; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2019-12-31.
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Bernie Sanders will win the 2020 Dem. Presidential nomination ( 10% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2020-09-01; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
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Elizabeth Warren will run for President in 2020 ( 62% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2020-10-01; judged right by JTPeterson on 2019-04-10.
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Hillary Clinton will announce candidacy for the 2020 US Presidential Election ( 5% confidence; 19 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-12-19; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2019-04-10.
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Democrats to gain control of US Senate in 2018 elections ( 43% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2017-12-14; known on 2018-11-07; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2018-11-07.
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The first SpaceX Falcon Heavy launch will fail to make its desired orbit. ( 45% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-03; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by enolan on 2018-02-06.
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Public demonstration of an AI that can learn the rules of, and play at a superhuman level, most board/card games without supervision, just watching many games and being told who won, in 2018 or 2019. ( 64% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2017-12-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-01-01.
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Roy Moore to win senate special election ( 65% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2017-11-27; known on 2017-12-15; judged wrong by objclone on 2017-12-13.
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BFR to launch before 2022. ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2017-11-27; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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SLS to be cancelled outright or to launch at least once before 2025. ( 87% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2017-11-27; known on 2025-01-01.
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Falcon Heavy to launch (whether or not successful) before June 15, 2018 ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2017-11-27; known on 2018-06-16; judged right by enolan on 2018-06-08.
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The 2017 TIME Person of the Year will be related to #MeToo, Harvey Weinstein, and/or the broader anti-sexual harassment movement. ( 45% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-11-26; known on 2017-12-07; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-12-06.
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Blue Origin's New Glenn to enter commercial service by the end of 2021. ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-11-14; known on 2021-12-31; judged wrong by stepan on 2022-01-02.
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Roy Stewart Moore drops out of the Alabama senate race ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-11-13; known on 2018-01-05; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-12-13.
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Hillary Clinton will be indicted for the sale of Uranium to Russia ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Gibs on 2017-11-12; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2018-07-02.
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Politics, US – Roy Moore steps down prior to the special election to fill Jeff Sessions' former senate seat. ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-11-11; known on 2017-12-13; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-12-13.
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Rocket Labs 'Still Testing' Electron rocket launch will successfully deploy it's payloads in a stable orbit. ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-18; known on 2018-01-30; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-01-22.
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>50% of the world population has to scan their eye(/iris) at least once per day ( 3% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-27; known on 2020-08-19; judged wrong by NickN on 2020-08-20.
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Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022 ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by OisinMoran on 2017-10-19; known on 2022-03-27; judged wrong by OisinMoran on 2022-03-29.
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social movement with explicit reference to kyriarchy as a tenet commits mass murder (>10,000 people) ( 9% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-18; known on 2042-01-01.