Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 43% | 63% | 71% | 83% | 93% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 373 | 575 | 496 | 412 | 690 | 110 | 2656 |
Displaying all predictions made by gwern. Filter by:
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HP MoR: Dumbledore is responsible for framing Hermione. ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-05-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by DrDiaphanous on 2015-02-19.
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HP MoR: Quirrellmort is responsible for framing Hermione. ( 59% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-05-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by DrDiaphanous on 2015-02-19.
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Dropbox will move off of Amazon S3 before they go public or before 2015 ( 49% confidence; 8 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by workbean on 2013-06-01; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by quanticle on 2016-03-16.
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Opportunity Rover to function until December 15 ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-06-01; known on 2013-12-15; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-15.
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PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today – 5/31/2023 – with this individual prediction still accessible. ( 71% confidence; 29 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by FestiveBleak on 2013-05-31; known on 2023-05-31; judged right by holycow81 7 days ago.
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General election will occur in Tunisia before the end of 2013 ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lilia on 2013-05-31; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.
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By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S. ( 38% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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Ubuntu will create its very own Kernel within the next five years, ( 13% confidence; 18 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by peterc on 2013-05-28; known on 2018-06-01; judged wrong by moyamo on 2018-06-13.
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Tony Abbott will be the Prime Minister following the 2013 Australian Federal Election ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by atroche on 2013-05-26; known on 2013-12-01; judged right by atroche on 2013-12-01.
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Segways will make a comeback before 12/31/2016 ( 29% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-24; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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By 2014, US will have passed to law to give a tax break to corporations to bring their money back home ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-01-14.
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Ted Nelson, inventor of hypertext: Shinichi Mochizuki is the real Satoshi Nakamoto ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-21; known on 2040-01-01.
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By 2050, a professional league would have raised the height of the rims in basketball above 10 feet. ( 39% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-21; known on 2050-01-01.
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Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030 ( 29% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-20; known on 2030-01-01.
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Infinitely many primes with gap <= 16, proven by 2050 ( 57% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-05-20; known on 2050-01-16.
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Google will survive for 15 more years ( 91% confidence; 29 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-05-19; known on 2028-05-19.
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Google will survive for five more years ( 97% confidence; 38 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-05-19; known on 2018-05-19; judged right by NancyLebovitz on 2018-05-19.
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'Abigail Boyd' will respond with a link or other form of an auction website instead of a real offer. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-09; known on 2013-07-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-17.
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US government will indicts MtGox or its officers on criminal charges. ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kiba on 2013-05-15; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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Mathematician Shinichi Mochizuki's proof on the ABC Conjecture will be verified to be valid by 2035. ( 22% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-05-11; known on 2035-01-01.
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Larry Page will survive 5 years as Google CEO ( 76% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by davatk on 2018-05-08.
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Google Chrome browser will survive 5 years ( 93% confidence; 27 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Translate will survive 5 years ( 90% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-03; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Search will survive 5 years ( 98% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-03; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Project Glass will survive 5 years ( 57% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-03; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-28.
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Google Voice will survive 5 more years ( 46% confidence; 7 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Scholar will survive 5 more years ( 77% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google+ will survive 5 more years ( 60% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Gmail will survive 5 more years ( 95% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google's FeedBurner will survive 5 more years ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Docs will survive 5 more years ( 85% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Calendar will survive 5 more years ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Blogger will survive 5 more years ( 72% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Analytics will survive 5 more years ( 92% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Alerts will survive 5 more years ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google AdSense will survive 5 more years. ( 96% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Bitcoin was created by a group of programmers who called themselves “Satoshi Nakomoto” and were not employed by a state or a corporation for the express purpose of making Bitcoin ( 19% confidence; 19 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-05-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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I will be hospitalized or visit the emergency room within the year. ( 5% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-18; known on 2013-04-18; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-04-18.
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Bitcoin may means-revert ~$10/btc “in a few weeks” —Scott Locklin model ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-04-17; known on 2013-05-22; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-05-22.
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Bitcoin to hit ~$20/btc “in a few weeks” —Scott Locklin model ( 10% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-04-17; known on 2013-05-22; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-05-22.
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HP MoR: The Hat and Cloak that interacted with Hermione is Professor McGonagall. ( 4% confidence; 20 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by cafesofie on 2012-03-25; known on 2016-04-17; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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Boston Marathon bombing perpetrated by ethnically white male. ( 61% confidence; 17 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-04-17; known on 2015-04-17; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2015-04-09.
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The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022 ( 34% confidence; 35 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-15; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by M on 2022-01-01.
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The next US president (after Obama) will also be a Democrat. ( 53% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Osuniev on 2013-04-15; known on 2016-11-15; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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The Supreme Court will overturn the ability to patent genes. ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-04-14; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-06-13.
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BTC hits $1000 within the year ( 15% confidence; 20 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2013-11-28.
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BTC hits $500 within the year ( 35% confidence; 23 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2013-11-28.
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Bitcoin will hit the $30 mark (currently $100) sometime in the next 2 months. ( 30% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-04-01; known on 2013-07-01; judged wrong by phreeza on 2013-07-02.
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Now that Goodreads has been acquired by Amazon, “I doubt it will survive in its current form for more than 2 years.” — Joey Hess ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by alecbrooks on 2013-04-01; known on 2015-04-01; judged wrong by alecbrooks on 2015-04-04.
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BTC hits $100 within the year ( 65% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-03-19; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-04-01.
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Zeo Inc will be sold, taken private, dissolve or go bankrupt in 2013. ( 75% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-03-12; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2014-01-01.
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MetaMed to face legal challenges from regulators by 2016 (S.T. Rev via Twitter). ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-03-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2015-09-02.
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The price of bitcoins on MtGox meets or exceeds $45.00 in the next 30 days. ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by tedks on 2013-03-05; known on 2013-04-04; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-03-06.
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C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring) will hit Mars ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2013-03-02; known on 2014-11-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-10-28.
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Scott, of Slate Star Codex, will land his residency ( 72% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by torekp on 2013-03-01; known on 2013-06-01; judged right by simplicio on 2013-03-11.
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2013: Chinese household consumption <=35% of Chinese GDP —Michael Pettis ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-28; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2014-03-09.
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XiXi: 6 ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-02-27; known on 2013-02-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-02-27.
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XiXi: 5 ( 10% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2013-02-27; known on 2013-02-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-02-27.
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XiXi: 4 ( 10% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2013-02-27; known on 2013-02-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-02-27.
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XiXi: 3 ( 10% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2013-02-27; known on 2013-02-27; judged right by gwern on 2013-02-27.
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XiXi: 2 ( 30% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2013-02-27; known on 2013-02-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-02-27.
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XiXi: 1 ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-02-27; known on 2013-02-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-02-27.
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Alex Jones will be implicated in an illicit drug scandal by the end of 2013. ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Digglerson on 2013-02-27; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.
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Alex Jones will be implicated in a sex scandal by the end of 2013. ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Digglerson on 2013-02-27; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.
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Silk Road: there will have been a bust (>10 named defendants) related to forged IDs eg. driver's licenses, linked to the SR vendor KingOfClubs ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-02-25; known on 2015-03-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-03-31.
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The price of bitcoins exceeds $35 on mtgox in the next 30 days. ( 55% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by tedks on 2013-02-22; known on 2013-03-24; judged right by nanotube on 2013-03-04.
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Bitcoins will be worth more than 50$/coin at the end of 2013. ( 76% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by ChristianKl on 2013-02-18; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by mastermind8189 on 2013-12-28.
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The recently resigned pope will announce he is an atheist ( 0% confidence; 29 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-02-11; known on 2013-05-11; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2013-05-11.
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China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023. ( 7% confidence; 23 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-02-08; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2023-01-02.
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Bitcoin will be exchanged at a rate higher than $20/BTC at the end of 2013. ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by ChristianKl on 2012-11-29; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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Mandatory paternity testing in some states of the USA by 2020. ( 33% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by tomokaicho on 2013-01-28; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-02-10.
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NGE: Sadamoto's Eva manga will conclude with substantially the same ending as Last A ( 5% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2013-07-26; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-11-05.
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NGE: The four Children mentioned in the 3.0 preview turn out to be: Shinji, Mari, Kaworu and Asuka ( 80% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2013-01-01.
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NGE: Sadamoto's Eva manga will conclude with substantially the same ending as EoE ( 26% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2013-07-26; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-08-01.
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NGE: Sadamoto's Eva manga will conclude with substantially the same ending as the NGE64 variant of EoE ( 26% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2013-07-26; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-11-05.
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NGE: Sadamoto's Eva manga will conclude with substantially the same ending as EoTV ( 10% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2013-07-26; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-11-05.
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NGE: Sadamoto's Eva manga will conclude with substantially the same ending as Last B ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2013-07-26; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-11-05.
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Apple share price to stay below $700 during 2013. ( 59% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-01-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by dhoe on 2014-01-01.
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North Korea to conduct a nuclear test in 2013. ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-01-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-02-12.
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Steve Ballmer will be the CEO of Microsoft at the end of 2014 ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by dusk on 2013-01-24; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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Steve Ballmer will be the CEO of Microsoft at the end of 2013 ( 81% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by dusk on 2013-01-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by dusk on 2014-01-01.
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Mencius Moldbug: Bitcoin <10 cents by end of 2013. ( 7% confidence; 26 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-01-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028 ( 8% confidence; 18 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-12; known on 2028-12-31.
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The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be <50 years old at his inauguration. ( 22% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-01-11; known on 2032-11-10.
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The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be 50-60 years old at his inauguration. ( 44% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-01-11; known on 2032-11-10.
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The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be >60 years old at his inauguration. ( 40% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-01-11; known on 2032-11-10.
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Barack Obama will be assassinated in 2013 ( 1% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-01-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable “in ten thousand years, or so” ( 19% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by sdr on 2013-01-09; known on 9999-01-01.
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By the end of 2013, the government will have never minted a trillion dollar coin. ( 94% confidence; 27 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
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Eric Schmidt will get nominated for a position in the Obama administration in the year 2013 ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-01-07; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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>=1 Longecity users will claim my (swapped) sets of iodine eye photographs will reveal a lightening trend of my iris. ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-05; known on 2013-01-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-05.
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Washington Post: Assuming full “fiscal cliff” hits, unemployment will go over 11% before mid 2014 ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-28; known on 2014-06-01.
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In HPMOR, Harry will at some point accept that souls and/or an afterlife exists. ( 34% confidence; 17 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-01-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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Gwern has dissociative identity disorder and the identity of his split personality is Yvain. ( 0% confidence; 28 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2020-01-01.
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GSoC 2012: “Haskell-Type-Exts” ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-24; known on 2013-01-01.
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Bitcoin “Coverage in media will decrease” ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-03; known on 2013-01-01.
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The target of Wikileaks's major American bank leak will be Bank of America ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Afforess on 2015-07-05.
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Kasia Rivera will be found guilty of manslaughter for performing fatal penis enlargement procedure ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by stephenh on 2011-12-10; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2016-03-12.
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No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030. ( 63% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-31; known on 2030-01-01.
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No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025. ( 79% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-31; known on 2025-01-01.