Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 43% | 63% | 71% | 83% | 93% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 373 | 575 | 496 | 412 | 690 | 110 | 2656 |
Displaying all predictions made by gwern. Filter by:
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'16 nanometer chips are in mass production' by 2014 ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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James Webb telescope is launched in 2014 ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-01.
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India launches Chandrayaan-2 in 2013 ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-28; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-02.
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By 2014, Iran will have detonated a nuclear bomb. ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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Iran's current regime will continue its nuclear program — or be overthrown — rather than accept the current (Oct 2009) offer to have nuclear materials processed elsewhere (such as Russia). ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by robo45h on 2009-11-13; known on 2010-11-13; judged right by gwern on 2010-11-13.
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A stem cell cure for baldness will be commercially/medically available ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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“Brain-computer interfaces allowing the paralysed to walk again” ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-01.
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“From 2008 to 2011, sales of professional and personal service robots more than double – from 5.5 million to over 11.5 million.” ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-05-13.
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“22 nanometer chips are in mass production” during 2011 ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.
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Blue Waters built, fully online, and capable of >1 sustained petaflops ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-14.
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“sales of touch screen phones will rise from 200,000 in 2006 to over 21 million in 2012” ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Tuxedage on 2013-01-01.
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British forces withdrawn from Afghanistan by 2015 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-03-05.
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by 2037, a devastating earthquake has hit the west coast of the United States ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2037-01-01.
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Subversion will not be released by 2011. ( 70% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-24; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-03.
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Subversion will not be released in 2010. ( 98% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-24; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-01.
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PredictionBook.com will not be an active prediction registry in 2025. ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-22; known on 2025-09-22; judged unknown by gwern on 2010-09-23.
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“within 15 years, Google will be buying what is left of Oracle” —imbcmdth ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-22; known on 2025-09-22.
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The Wikipedia user Bread Ninja will have stopped editing more than weekly within 2 years. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-18; known on 2012-09-18; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-18.
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The Wikipedia user Bread Ninja will have stopped editing more than weekly within a year. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-18; known on 2011-09-18; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-18.
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Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence. ( 11% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-09-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by jasticE on 2020-02-01.
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Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence. ( 10% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-09-16; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by komponisto on 2010-09-29.
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“Construction of 'Ground Zero mosque' to commence before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 33% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-11; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.
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“Construction of 'Ground Zero mosque' to commence before midnight ET 30 Jun 2011” —Intrade ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-11; known on 2011-06-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-30.
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“Construction of 'Ground Zero mosque' to commence before midnight ET 31 Dec 2010” —Intrade ( 15% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-11; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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“10^18 FLOPS by 2020” —Shane Legg ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-11; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-01-25.
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PredictionBook will be successful in years to come ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide on 2010-05-25; known on 2015-06-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-07-06.
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Weed will not be legalized in California for the next 5 years ( 65% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by aurasprw on 2009-10-17; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by mfb on 2014-01-13.
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“The Freedom Tower to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2014” —Intrade ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-06; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-05.
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“The Freedom Tower to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 40% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-06; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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Life will be discovered on Titan by 2030. ( 5% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by gwern on 2010-09-06.
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Memristor products will be commercially available in 2013. ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-05; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-02.
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A 2nd US retailer will receive a letter from the FDA ordering them to cease selling piracetam products. ( 70% confidence; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-02; known on 2010-10-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-31.
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Barack Obama wins the presidential elections in 2012. ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by SilentWarrior on 2010-09-01; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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An alternative to using seat belts (i.e., seatbelt-less seats) will be invented for air travel by 2013. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by kochikvp on 2010-08-30; known on 2013-12-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-09-05.
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Trike'll have put four developers onto the LW codebase for a weeklong sprint by Sat 2nd Oct. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Matt on 2010-08-30; known on 2010-10-02; judged right by Matt on 2010-09-30.
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Trike'll have put four developers onto the LW codebase for a weeklong sprint by Sat 18th Sept. [dashboard team strength 60%] ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Matt on 2010-08-30; known on 2010-09-18; judged wrong by Matt on 2010-09-18.
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“By 2050 Baidu.com will surpass Google.com and become world's number 1 search engine.” —Yan Bashkin ( 30% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-30; known on 2050-01-01.
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By mid-2026, Iraq will have a lower 'Political Rights and Civic Voice' rating from Freedom House than it does now. ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-29; known on 2026-06-01.
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“By December 31, 2020, synthetic solar energy (fusion) will have been shown to be a technically feasible method of electrical power generation, by an experiment demonstrating a controlled fusion reaction producing more harnessable energy than was used to ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-28; known on 2020-12-31.
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Hyperinflation by 2011 —Gonzalo Lira ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-28; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Larks on 2011-01-01.
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The US Fed will increase interest rates by November 2010. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kochikvp on 2010-08-27; known on 2010-11-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-11-16.
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The proportion of the population that believes that Human-induced climate change is a reality will decline to below 50% by 2014. ( 36% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by kochikvp on 2010-08-27; known on 2014-12-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-16.
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Business models based on pay-per-click (as Google's) will be shown to have failed by 2012. ( 20% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by kochikvp on 2010-08-27; known on 2012-12-16; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-10-14.
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Lucas Sloan will be admitted into UC Berkeley. ( 80% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2010-05-01; judged right by gwern on 2010-08-27.
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The current UK coalition government will last until the end of 2010 ( 89% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by benj on 2010-08-26; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by Larks on 2011-01-01.
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“Carry-on luggage on US airlines will be reduced to a single handbag that inspectors can search thoroughly, in 2010 or 2011.” —Phil Goetz ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.
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A state will try to secede from the US. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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A state will try & succeed in seceding from the US. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2020-01-01.
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There will be an armed insurrection in the US involving >1000 combatants. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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Automated machines for custom shoes in widespread use. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 17% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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Sous-vide cookers in half as many American households as microwaves. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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Home sous-vide cookers <$200. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-07.
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“the number of IMAX theaters in the US triples” —dfranke ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-23; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-06.
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“I will continue to post on LW at least once a month…in 2020” —magfrump ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-25; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2021-09-05.
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“I will continue to post on LW at least once a month next year” —magfrump ( 80% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-25; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“sites like intrade gain prestige in the next decade” ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-25; known on 2020-01-01.
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“there is a student at 75% or so of high schools in 2020 that will take bets on future predictions on any subject” —magfrump ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-25; known on 2020-12-31.
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“At least one Asian movie will exceed $400 mn in worldwide box office gross before the end of the decade.” —blogospheroid ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-24; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-11-21.
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ARNA's stock price will be over $30 on Jan 15, 2011 ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Mo_Money_2make on 2010-08-23; known on 2011-01-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-16.
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MNKD's stock price will be over $20 by Jan 15, 2011 ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mo_Money_2make on 2010-08-23; known on 2011-01-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-16.
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MNKD will sign a partner for AFREZZA by November 1, 2010 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mo_Money_2make on 2010-08-23; known on 2010-11-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-11-01.
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“The current lull in the increase of the speed at which CPUs perform sequential operations comes to an end, yielding a consumer CPU that performs sequential integer arithmetic operations 4x as quickly as a modern 3GHz Xeon” —dfranke ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-23; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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“Either the Iranian regime is overthrown by popular revolution, or there is an overt airstrike against Iran by either the US or Israel, or Israel is attacked by an Iranian nuclear weapon” -dfranke ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-23; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-31.
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“Android-descended smartphones outnumber iPhone-descended smartphones” —dfranke ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-23; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-09.
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“All of the major candidates for the 2016 presidential election will have had samples of their DNA taken and analyzed (perhaps without the candidates’ permission.) The results of the analysis for each candidate will be widely disseminated and will influen ( 3% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2016-11-04; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-11-04.
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“Within ten years there will be another $200 billion+ Wall Street Bailout” —James Miller ( 40% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
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“Within five years the Israeli economy will have been devastated because many believe there is a high probability that an atomic bomb will someday be used against Israel” —James Miller ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-01.
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“Within ten years the U.S. repudiates its debt either officially or with an inflation rate of over 100% for one year” —James Miller ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
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“While president, Obama will announce support for means testing Social Security” —James Miller ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2017-01-20; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-20.
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“Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs.” —James Miller ( 9% confidence; 20 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
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“Within ten years either genetic manipulation or embryo selection will have been used on at least 50% of Chinese babies to increase the babies’ expected intelligence” —James Miller ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
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“Within ten years either genetic manipulation or embryo selection will have been used on at least 10,000 babies in China to increase the babies’ expected intelligence” —James Miller ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
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Another beloved celebrity will die before the year is over ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by maskath@hotmail.com on 2010-06-04; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-01.
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“U.S. private reserves may run out by 2015” —CISFHR ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.
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US helium production will crash to near-zero in 25 years. —Robert Richardson ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2035-01-01.
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“The president (or some other position selected through open elections) is the highest position in the Iranian state” —Jack ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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“By 2020 open elections are held for the Iranian presidency (no significant factions excluded from participation)” —Jack ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Conditional on a cap-and-trade scheme passing, US CO2 emissions in 2019 will be >=%95 2008. —Jack ( 98% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-02-09.
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“By 2020 some kind of CO2 emissions regulation (cap and trade) will be in place in the US” —Jack ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-20.
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The WTC mosque will be relocated. —Roger Ebert ( 30% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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23andMe will offer >=550k SNP genotyping for <=$100 during 2014. ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-19; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-12-31.
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“By 2020, an Earth-like habitable extrasolar planet is detected.” —Kevin ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-07.
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Lindsay Lohan will die before 50 ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jande417 on 2010-08-19; known on 2040-08-19.
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A general-purpose artificial intelligence comparable to or better than a human will not have been developed by the beginning of 2020. ( 82% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Richard_Kennaway on 2010-08-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by MultiplyByZer0 on 2020-06-12.
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“I am 99% confident that AGI [AI] comparable to or better than a human, friendly or otherwise, will not be developed in the next ten years.” —Richard Kennaway ( 96% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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US health-care expenditure >=$6 trillion in 2018 —orthonormal ( 39% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-18; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by orthonormal on 2019-12-31.
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US health-care expenditure <=$4 trillion in 2018 —orthonormal ( 1% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-18; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by orthonormal on 2019-12-31.
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US health-care expenditure is less than or equal to $5 trillion in 2018. —orthonormal ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-18; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by orthonormal on 2019-12-31.
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Food will be commercially synthesized from chemical stocks like coal or atmospheric nitrogen. —J.B.S. Haldane ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-18; known on 2043-01-01.
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“in the year 2020, we're not even close to the kind of disaster you describe – a convergence of three disasters: global currency collapse, significant warfare between rich and poor, and environmental disasters of some significant size. We won't even be cl ( 87% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-18; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.
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Mervi Tapola will either cancel or let expire her divorce with Matti Nykänen during the six month waiting period. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mikko on 2010-08-17; known on 2011-02-17; judged right by gwern on 2011-05-11.
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“We will end the decade with some mobile [electronics] energy storage system with an energy density close to or better than fat metabolism.” —W.H. Pearson ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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“energy consumption will grow on a par or less than population growth.” —W.H. Pearson ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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“the largest area of impact from technological change over the next decade will come from increasing communications bandwidth.” —Michael Vassar ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-04-21.
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Carr-Benkler wager: by 2011 most big content sites (Digg, Flickr, YouTube etc.) will be professional than amateur driven. ( 1% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-17; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-01.
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“If present trends continue, over the next ten years almost $500 billion of Title IV loans will have been funneled to this industry. We estimate total defaults of $275 billion, and because of fees associated with defaults, for profit students will owe $3 ( 65% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-17; known on 2021-02-01.
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“Global Temperature Anomaly for Sep 2010 to be greater than 0.50 Degrees C” —Intrade ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-16; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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“Global Temperature Anomaly for Aug 2010 to be greater than 0.50 Degrees C” —Intrade ( 35% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-16; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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“Global Temperature Anomaly for Jul 2010 to be greater than 0.50 Degrees C” —Intrade ( 95% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-16; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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“Global Average Temperature for 2010-2014 to exceed that for 2005-2009 by 0.1 deg C or more” —Intrade ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-16; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-31.