Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Tech – Facebook's end-of-day market capitalization be on 28 December 2018 is between $360 billion and $430 billion. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-11; known on 2018-12-29; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-30.
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Kocherga, rational time club in Moscow, Russia will close and not reopen in 2018 ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2018-04-11; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by crabman on 2018-12-29.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2018-12-21). ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-12-19; known on 2018-12-28; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-12-28.
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PP will defeat Hbox in 2018. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by fairfax on 2018-03-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by ambisinister on 2018-12-28.
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[SSBM] UCF will not be used at The Big House 8, Evo 2018, GENESIS 5, or any tournament with over 1750 entrants in 2018 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ambisinister on 2017-12-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by ambisinister on 2018-12-28.
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Ari Paul's $50k strike Bitcoin calls will expire in the money ( 5% confidence )
Created by ambisinister on 2017-12-24; known on 2018-12-28; judged wrong by ambisinister on 2018-12-28.
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Politics, Middle East – Saudi Arabia does not conduct any airstrikes in Yemen between the start and end of December 2018 ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Jennifer on 2018-12-28.
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The B's will be at the meeting. ( 60% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-12-27; known on 2018-12-27; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-12-27.
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Bill Gates “Digital transactions will rise to 50% of India's GDP in the next 2-3 years”. ( 75% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-06; known on 2018-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-27.
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Consumer-level “Trans cranial magnetic stimulation orgasmatron” (TMS device capable of producing orgasm ) hits the market ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-15; known on 2018-12-24; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-27.
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US real GDP growth rate for 2018 will be under 2.0% ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-20; known on 2018-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-27.
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Bharat Biotech will develop the first Zika vaccine by 2018. ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-13; known on 2018-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-27.
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The gift card belongs to my sister. ( 90% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-12-26; known on 2018-12-27; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-12-27.
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I read 24+ books this year ( 60% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
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I manage to climb a 5.11 wall at a rock climbing gym ( 70% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
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Serious impeachment proceedings begin against Trump ( 22% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
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Trump is president at years end ( 91% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
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There is no deadly confrontation between North Korea and US armed Forces in 2018 ( 99% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
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I go on an overnight hike ( 60% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
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North Korea explodes a nuclear missile outside of internationally recognized North Korean territory ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
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I have a consistent 3-month stint of exercise ( 70% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
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I do not do the Future Authoring program ( 70% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
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Another US senator or representative will resign or be removed from office due to allegations of sexual harassment or assault ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
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I do not do any sort of work in a foreign country ( 70% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
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I hike antelope canyon ( 80% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
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Trump does not get impeached in 2018 ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
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Trumps approval rating never rises above 50% in 2018 ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
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Trumps approval rating never dips below 30% in 2018 ( 84% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
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I visit Mexico at least once ( 80% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
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I switch away from iPhone ( 80% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
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I do not start a blog or write regularly ( 90% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
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I do not become proficient at cooking for myself ( 90% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
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I do not attend a rationality/lesswrong/SSC event or meetup ( 90% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
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There will be a Wikipedia page detailing the crypto currency boom resembling https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by xzvf on 2017-11-06; known on 2019-05-03; judged right by xzvf on 2018-12-21.
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I will have a new phone in 24 months (current MI3W) ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-12-21; known on 2018-12-21; judged right by penten on 2018-12-21.
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jessicata doesn't think GiveWell is a scam ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-12-20; known on 2018-12-20; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2018-12-20.
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Bharat will lead the world in 4G. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-01; known on 2018-12-11; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-20.
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[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 5 seconds ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2018-11-12; known on 2018-11-28; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2018-12-20.
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[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 5 seconds ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2018-11-12; known on 2018-11-28; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2018-12-20.
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[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 5 seconds ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2018-11-12; known on 2018-11-28; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2018-12-20.
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[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 3 minutes ( 87% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2018-11-12; known on 2018-11-28; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2018-12-20.
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[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 1 minute and 26 seconds (the time it ran out in 2017) ( 80% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2018-11-12; known on 2018-11-28; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2018-12-20.
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[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 40 seconds ( 64% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2018-11-12; known on 2018-11-28; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2018-12-20.
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[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 20 seconds ( 43% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2018-11-12; known on 2018-11-28; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2018-12-20.
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[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 10 seconds ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2018-11-12; known on 2018-11-28; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2018-12-20.
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It's a test prediction ( 57% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Joy on 2018-06-30; known on 2018-07-14; judged right by pranomostro on 2018-12-19.
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Created by dmwit on 2018-12-12; known on 2018-12-20; judged wrong by dmwit on 2018-12-19.
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<5 personnes restant au moins 5 min entre 17h30 et 18h50 ( 73% confidence )
Created by leo_grint on 2018-12-18; known on 2018-12-19; judged right by leo_grint on 2018-12-18.
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Contingent on losing her appeal, Amanda Knox will be extradited to Italy to serve her sentence. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by adbge on 2014-01-31; known on 2018-01-31; judged wrong by lettergram on 2020-11-05.
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Contingent on losing her appeal, Amanda Knox will be extradited to Italy to serve her sentence. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by adbge on 2014-01-31; known on 2018-01-31; judged wrong by lettergram on 2020-11-05.