Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 46% | 64% | 63% | 73% | 88% | 98% | |
Sample Size | 93 | 90 | 144 | 143 | 508 | 165 | 1143 |
Displaying all predictions made by Bruno Parga. Filter by:
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Joe Biden to be] 1 to 10 ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-16.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Joe Biden to be] 11 to 20 ( 42% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Joe Biden to be] 21 to 30 ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Joe Biden to be] 31 to 40 ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-07-14.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Joe Biden to be] 41 to 51 ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.
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I have learned all words in all 7 levels of Memrise Russian. ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-05-14; known on 2020-09-24; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-09-11.
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Health, UK – News reports of a confirmed case of 2019-nCoV in UK by deadline. ( 74% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-23; known on 2020-02-28; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-01-31.
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[Conditional on Elon Musk not becoming impaired cognitively, at least one person will depart for Mars with the intent/expectation of not returning, by ] January 1, 2035 ( 23% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-01-23; known on 2035-01-01.
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[Conditional on Elon Musk not becoming impaired cognitively, at least one person will depart for Mars with the intent/expectation of not returning, by ] January 1, 2030 ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-01-23; known on 2035-01-01.
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[Conditional on Elon Musk not becoming impaired cognitively, at least one person will depart for Mars with the intent/expectation of not returning, by ] January 1, 2025 ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-01-23; known on 2035-01-01.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 100,000 ( 37% confidence; 37 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-04-10.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 50,000 ( 35% confidence; 30 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by nortriptyline2 on 2020-04-03.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 100 million ( 0% confidence; 29 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 50 million ( 1% confidence; 34 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 10 million ( 8% confidence; 36 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 5 million ( 12% confidence; 34 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 1 million ( 40% confidence; 45 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-09.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 500,000 ( 44% confidence; 46 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-29.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 10,000 ( 56% confidence; 45 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-03-20.
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There will be more than 8000 human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be reported before 2021 ( 71% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-30.
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Lab-cultured red protein that emulates beef will become commonplace, and sold in typical grocery stores, *by 2025*. ( 29% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sungk2048 on 2020-01-18; known on 2025-01-19.
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Tesla has at least one truly autonomous (no human safety driver) taxi (where a member of the public chooses the destination and pays) on a regular street (where unrestricted human-driven cars are driven on the same street) by the end of 2020 ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.
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A third-party candidate gets more than 5% of the vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election ( 8% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-14; known on 2020-11-07; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-11-07.
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in four months, the consensus among the national security community will be that we (i.e., the US) are not any more meaningfully said to be “at war” with Iran than we are now on 5 Jan 2020. ( 65% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-06; known on 2020-05-06; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-05-06.
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The African Continental Free Trade Area is operational between all countries it is legally in force for, with the treaty effectively governing all the trade its text covers ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.
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[States (+DC) adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact] have >= 270 electoral votes ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.
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[States (+DC) adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact] have >= 229 electoral votes ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.
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[States (+DC) adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact] have been joind by at least 4 other states ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.
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[States (+DC) adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact] have been joined by at least one other state ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.
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[States (+DC) adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact] are fewer than 16 ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.
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[States (+DC) adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact] are only the current 16 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.
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[2020s scientific advances:] a small, rocky exoplanet with water vapor ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2030-01-01.
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[2020s scientific advances:] finding the axion ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2030-01-01.
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[2020s scientific advances:] functional brain implants made of brain tissue (not electronic) ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2030-01-01.
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[2020s scientific advances:] a universal flu vaccine available to the general public in at least one country ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2030-01-01.
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“We are confident that over 60 million patients will have their genome sequenced in a healthcare context by 2025” ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03; known on 2026-05-01.
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As of the end of 2030, nobody lives on less than the international poverty line. ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-06-30.
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Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars ( 19% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-01-01.
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By 2030, small nuclear power plants (around 60MW) were “popping up” around the USA. ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03; known on 2032-01-01.
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China sequences 100 million people's genomes between 2026 and 2030 ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03; known on 2031-01-01.
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In 2030, global greenhouse gas emissions have been at most 50% of those in 2018. ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03; known on 2031-01-01.
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There is a base on the surface of the Moon and there is always someone there. ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-01-01.
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Some car company will sell SAE level 3 cars in the next 10 years. ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-12-31.
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Javascript is still the dominant programming language in browsers by 2030 ( 78% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-12-31.
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Someone sells a hoverboard by 2030 ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-12-31.
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[The Economist predicts:] Britain gets a new monarch ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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[The Economist predicts:] Greta Thunberg wins Nobel peace prize ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-10-09.
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[The Economist predicts:] Record high global average temperature is recorded by NASA ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-19.
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[The Economist predicts:] US gives notice of withdrawal from NATO ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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[The Economist predicts:] S&P 500 stock index ends year at least 10% down ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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[The Economist predicts:] United States falls into recession during the next 12 months ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.
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[The Economist predicts:] House prices fall across rich English-speaking countries ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-12-31.
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[The Economist predicts:] China wins the most gold medals at the Olympics ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-08-17.
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[The Economist predicts:] England wins Euro 2020 men's football tournament ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-08-17.
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[The Economist predicts:] 'Parasite' wins best picture at the Oscars ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-03-15.
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[The Economist predicts:] Billie Eilish wins album of the year at the Grammys ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-04-10.
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[The Economist predicts:] Christian Coleman wins men's 100 metres at the Olympics ( 44% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-08-17.
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[The Economist predicts:] Scotland's parliament votes for independence referendum ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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[The Economist predicts:] Bitcoin price ends year below $7,500 ( 40% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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[The Economist predicts:] Nicolás Maduro holds on to the presidency of Venezuela ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Bulgaria has applied to join ERM-II (a prerequisite for adopting the euro) ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-07-09.
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Belgium has formed a federal government ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01; known on 2020-05-26; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-05-11.
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Kosovo has <116 recognitions by sovereign states (excludes Niue and Cook Islands, includes “withdrawn” recognitions because withdrawing isn't valid) ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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I contribute a major feature to PredictionBook ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.
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The transition from the XOF franc to the eco will be complete in all countries currently using XOF. ( 1% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-29; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-09-13.
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A Star Wars movie is released in December 2022 ( 38% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2022-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-01-01.
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Princesses Victoria of Sweden, Elisabeth of Belgium, Catharina-Amalia of the Netherlands, Ingrid Alexandra of Norway and Leonor of Spain all reign at the same time. ( 22% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-10-26; known on 2101-01-02.
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Donald Trump will NOT be re-elected ( 55% confidence; 26 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by tcsmithbiz@yahoo.com on 2019-12-23; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2020-11-07.
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The Baltimore Ravens will win the Super Bowl ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by tcsmithbiz@yahoo.com on 2019-12-23; known on 2020-02-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-02-15.
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Pete Buttigieg will win the Democratic Nomination ( 14% confidence; 18 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by tcsmithbiz@yahoo.com on 2019-12-23; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-09-06.
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AfD will get more votes than FDP in 2020 Hamburg State Election ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2019-12-12; known on 2020-02-24; judged right by qznc on 2020-02-25.
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SPD will get the most votes in 2020 Hamburg State Election ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2019-12-12; known on 2020-02-24; judged right by qznc on 2020-02-25.
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Pete Buttigieg will win the democratic primary ( 17% confidence; 18 wagers )
Created by skuthus on 2019-11-27; known on 2020-06-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-17.
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[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno y agotará legislatura ( 43% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-08-04.
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[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno y durará al menos dos años ( 40% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2022-01-14.
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[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno y durará al menos un año ( 39% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged right by sortega on 2020-12-31.
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[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gracias al voto y/o abstención del bloque PP+Vox+Ciudadanos+NA+ ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-07.
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[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gracias al voto y/o abstención del bloque PSOE+Podemos+MP sin indepes ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-07.
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[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gracias al voto y/o abstención del bloque PSOE+Podemos+MP e indepes ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-07.
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[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gracias al voto y/o abstención del PPSOE ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-07.
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[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno presidido por ninguno de los anteriores (independiente, Teruel Existe…) ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-07.
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[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno presidido por Podemos ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-07.
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[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno presidido por el PP ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-07.
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[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno presidido por el PSOE ( 59% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-07.
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[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se repetiran sin formar gobierno ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-07.
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President Trump will win the 2020 Election. ( 54% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by meganwhalen20 on 2019-11-11; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Conservatives to have gained seats in general election ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Labour to have gained seats in general election ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Democratic Unionists to have gained seats in general election ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Scottish National Party to have gained seats in general election ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Liberal Democrats to have gained seats in general election ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Independent Group for Change to have gained seats in general election ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Labour to have won a majority in general election ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Liberal Democrats to have won a majority in general election ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Conservatives to have won a majority in general election ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01.
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The Senate to vote on impeachment of the 45th president before the end of June 2020 ( 86% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-10-19; known on 2020-07-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-02-04.
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All US-China trade war tariffs (imposed since June 2018) are not in effect ( 45% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-07-01.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] 20 or more ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 19 ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 18 ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.