Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 100% | 67% | 100% | 80% | 75% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 2 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 22 |
Displaying all predictions made by JayDee. Filter by:
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HP MoR: Harry will, at some point in the story or an epilogue, literally tear apart stars (for star lifting purposes perhaps), and this is what the “tear apart the very stars in heaven” phrase in the prophecy was referring to. ( 62% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-28; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-31.
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HPMOR: The ritual Quirrell mentions in chapter 74 using a rope that has hanged a man and a sword that has killed a woman will be revealed to create a dementor when cast. ( 56% confidence; 19 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2012-09-17; known on 2016-01-02; judged right by Osuniev on 2015-03-28.
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HP MoR: A Deathly Hallow besides the Cloak will appear in the possession of a character in the present-day at some point ( 92% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: Harry had a hand in the disappearance of Hermione's corpse. ( 80% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-18; known on 2015-06-23; judged right by Roxolan on 2015-03-01.
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HP MoR: While the diamond was just transfigured from his father's rock, the ring itself was also transfigured from Hermione's remains or part thereof, thus getting past Dumbledore's scanning for transfigured objects that Harry may have had on his person ( 42% confidence; 28 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-08; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by tedks on 2015-02-28.
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[HPMOR] Dumbledore did not kill (intentionally or unintentionally) Hermione. ( 79% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by linkhyrule5 on 2013-08-16; known on 2014-07-02; judged right by linkhyrule5 on 2015-02-20.
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HPMOR : The Dark Lord that Harry will vanquish is not Quirrelmort but Death itself. (http://lesswrong.com/lw/b7s/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/841h) ( 55% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Osuniev on 2013-07-31; known on 2014-07-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.
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HP MoR: Professor Quirrel is manipulating Harry into getting the Philosopher's stone for him (as of ch95) ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Kurosymph on 2013-07-18; known on 2014-01-16; judged right by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Dumbledore was involved in the attack that ended Narcissa Malfoy's life, but did not cast the spell that killed her. ( 41% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by 75th on 2013-07-13; known on 2016-01-05; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: At some point, Harry will obtain the Resurrection Stone and the Elder Wand (in addition to his Cloak) to become Master of Death. ( 36% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jordan_Hoyt on 2013-07-09; known on 2015-07-01; judged right by rictic on 2015-05-16.
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HP MoR: Snape kills Dumbledore ( 22% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Flailingjunk on 2013-07-06; known on 2015-01-02; judged wrong by ygert on 2015-03-23.
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Tony Abbott will be the Prime Minister following the 2013 Australian Federal Election ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by atroche on 2013-05-26; known on 2013-12-01; judged right by atroche on 2013-12-01.
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HPMoR: Quirrels prediction that Voldemort killed the snake in the chamber of secrets will turn out to incorrect. ( 16% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ChristianKl on 2013-03-24; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by player_03 on 2015-03-04.
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Liberal/National Coalition to win Australian Federal Election 2013. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by simplicio on 2013-01-18; known on 2013-11-30; judged right by najdorf on 2013-12-30.
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HPMOR: The character of Harry will ultimately come to at least consider the fact that he is literally within a story. ( 10% confidence; 17 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by learnmethis on 2012-09-26; known on 2015-09-26; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.
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HP MoR: The intermittent glitch in the Marauder's Map is people appearing in multiple places simultaneously due to use of Time Turners. ( 42% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by tadrinth on 2012-04-12; known on 2014-04-12; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: The constant glitch in the Marauder's Map is Quirrel appearing as 'the Defense Professor' ( 45% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Dumbledore did not kill Narcissa, but claimed he did. ( 54% confidence; 11 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-21; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Sirius Black is not in Azkaban and the person in Azkaban is Peter Pettigrew ( 60% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Quirrel ( 70% confidence; 18 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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Malcome Turnbull will be the next PM of Australia? ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dkidston on 2012-02-08; known on 2013-11-16; judged right by Mike on 2014-09-16.
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Labour to win next Australian federal election ( 33% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by procran on 2011-11-12; known on 2013-11-30; judged wrong by procran on 2013-12-02.