Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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XiXiDu will not comment or post to LW for 5 years. ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-11; known on 2016-07-11; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-16.
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MyBitcoin will go back up before 2011-09-04 UTC and allow > 90% of users to withdraw their full balances ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-04; known on 2011-09-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-14.
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“Michele Bachmann to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll” —Intrade ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2011-08-13; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-13.
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Firefox 6 will build correctly on Windows 7 on my first try (note: FF5 built just fine a few months ago) ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-12; known on 2011-08-13; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-13.
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I will win the free video tutorial contest I entered today. ( 12% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-07-28; known on 2011-08-06; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-08-08.
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'America’s credit rating will be taken down a notch' in 2011 —Capitol Commentary ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-07.
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I will win the free video tutorial contest I entered today. ( 12% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-07-28; known on 2011-08-06; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-08-08.
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Morendil will be accepted by the Good Jugdgement Team. ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-04; known on 2011-11-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-05.
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I will be accepted by the Good Judgement Team. ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-04; known on 2011-11-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-05.
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There will be another natural disaster somewhere in the world before the end of June. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-05-12; known on 2011-06-30; judged right by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-08-04.
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The US dept ceiling will be raised by August 2 ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-15; known on 2011-08-02; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-02.
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RBA will leave interest rates unchanged at the next meeting ( 55% confidence )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-30; known on 2011-08-02; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-08-02.
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The US dept ceiling will be raised by August 2 ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-15; known on 2011-08-02; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-02.
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The US dept ceiling will be raised by August 2 ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-15; known on 2011-08-02; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-02.
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Xmonad 1.0 will be released in July. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-01; known on 2011-08-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-01.
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Olivia will get the promotion to Customer Supervisor position at Qantas. ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by DavidPercival on 2011-03-22; known on 2011-07-31; judged wrong by DavidPercival on 2011-07-31.
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“…a consensus emerged that there is a better than 50 percent chance that Israel will launch a strike by next July.” —Jeffrey Goldberg ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-13; known on 2011-07-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-07-31.
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My entry will win the GitP 28th PrC contest. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-18; known on 2011-07-27; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-30.
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My last 10 link submissions to anime subreddit will average 1<x<15 karma. ( 15% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-26; known on 2011-07-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-07-30.
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“Iran will have mastered the generation of energy-grade nuclear material by early 2011, and given up on development of nuclear bombs in favor of civilian nuclear energy.” —Bruce Bueno de Mesquita ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2011-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-07-28.
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My rent will increase in June ( 70% confidence )
Created by alvinTng on 2011-04-08; known on 2011-07-08; judged right by alvinTng on 2011-07-26.
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my next laptop will leave it's former owner and be ready to rebuild today ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-07-26; known on 2011-07-26; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-07-26.
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my next laptop will leave it's former owner and be ready to rebuild today ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-07-26; known on 2011-07-26; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-07-26.
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my next laptop will leave it's former owner and be ready to rebuild today ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-07-26; known on 2011-07-26; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-07-26.
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Cadel Evans will win Tour de France 2011 ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-11; known on 2011-07-25; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-25.
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Frank Schleck will win Tour de France 2011 ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-15; known on 2011-07-24; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-25.
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Uruguay will win Copa America ( 65% confidence )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-20; known on 2011-07-25; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-25.
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Thomas Voeckler will win Tour de France 2011 ( 5% confidence )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-20; known on 2011-07-25; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-25.
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Andy Schleck will win Tour de France 2011 ( 10% confidence )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-20; known on 2011-07-25; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-25.
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Contador will win Tour de France 2011 ( 10% confidence )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-20; known on 2011-07-25; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-25.
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'The fifth book in the “A Song of Ice and Fire” series will be published: 5%' —CronoDAS ( 5% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2011-07-24.
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By 2061, India will be the world's largest economy —Scott Sumner ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-10; known on 2061-01-01; judged right by Vaibhav_Srivastva on 2020-12-01.
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By 2061, India will be the world's largest economy —Scott Sumner ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-10; known on 2061-01-01; judged right by Vaibhav_Srivastva on 2020-12-01.
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By 2061, India will be the world's largest economy —Scott Sumner ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-10; known on 2061-01-01; judged right by Vaibhav_Srivastva on 2020-12-01.
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By 2061, India will be the world's largest economy —Scott Sumner ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-10; known on 2061-01-01; judged right by Vaibhav_Srivastva on 2020-12-01.
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The final flight of space shuttle Atlantis (STS-135) will be completed successfully and will land with no fatalities and no major incidents. ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-14; known on 2011-07-23; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-21.
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Tyrion will not die in A Dance With Dragons. ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ZrCa on 2011-06-29; known on 2011-08-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-21.
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My SR thread on Bitcoin forums will be deleted or otherwise hidden or suppressed. ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-17; known on 2011-08-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-07-18.
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Christine Lagarde will be the next IMF president. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Saliency on 2011-06-09; known on 2011-06-30; judged right by Saliency on 2011-07-11.
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Sweden will beat Australia in tonights quarterfinal ( 75% confidence )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-10; known on 2011-07-10; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-11.
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The initial carbon price announced by the Gillard government will be below $30 a tonne ( 65% confidence )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-05; known on 2011-07-10; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-10.
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The initial carbon price announced by the Gillard government will be below $40 a tonne ( 95% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-05; known on 2011-07-10; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-10.
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The initial carbon price announced by the Gillard government will be below $20 a tonne ( 15% confidence )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-05; known on 2011-07-10; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-10.
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papermachine is Chinese or of Chinese descent. ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-08; known on 2011-07-09; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-07-08.
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“Microsoft will no longer have the majority market share in 24 months” —Beth Lynn Eicher ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2011-07-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-07-07.
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LW user 'Zed' is Zed Shaw. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-04; known on 2011-07-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-07-05.
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Christine Lagarde will be the next IMF president. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Saliency on 2011-06-09; known on 2011-06-30; judged right by Saliency on 2011-07-11.
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Gaddfi will lose one more son in the next 2 months. ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by minhduc on 2011-05-01; known on 2011-07-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-04.
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The majority of people will not worship man-made Gods by the year 2030. ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by dragonfly on 2011-07-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03.
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The majority of people will not worship man-made Gods by the year 2030. ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by dragonfly on 2011-07-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03.