Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 44% | 59% | 78% | 85% | 87% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 32 | 44 | 46 | 34 | 120 | 13 | 289 |
Displaying all predictions made by gimpf. Filter by:
-
Eliezer will state that he has finished writing HPMOR by the end of 2014. ( 33% confidence; 19 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Calien on 2014-08-19; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
-
Assange leaves the embassy within a year. ( 39% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-08-18; known on 2015-08-18; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-08-18.
-
Ebola doesn't cause more than 2500 deaths by the end of the year ( 39% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by minilodon on 2014-08-14; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by TeMPOraL on 2014-09-23.
-
Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project. ( 1% confidence; 27 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-08-12; known on 2024-08-12.
-
Zerocoin functionality incorporated into Bitcoin within 5 years ( 29% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-22; known on 2018-11-22; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-11-23.
-
Zerocoin functionality incorporated into Bitcoin within 1 year ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-22; known on 2014-11-22; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-11-23.
-
Zerocoin as functioning altcoin network within a year ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-22; known on 2014-11-22; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-11-23.
-
The European Union will start raising Union-level taxes (similar to US' federal taxation) by 2020 ( 22% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sdr on 2013-11-15; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03.
-
The Litecoin-Bitcoin exchange rate will reach 5:1 L:B or greater by 2015. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mavant on 2013-08-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Afforess on 2015-08-17.
-
Dexter Season 8: Dexter goes to jail ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jasticE on 2013-07-13; known on 2013-09-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-09-23.
-
Dexter Season 8: Harrison draws pictures involving murder or dead people. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jasticE on 2013-07-13; known on 2013-09-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-09-23.
-
Dexter Season 8: Harrison shows development of a “dark passenger”; Debra takes the role of his guide, as Harry was for Dexter. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jasticE on 2013-07-13; known on 2013-09-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-09-23.
-
Dexter Season 8: Batista dies ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jasticE on 2013-07-13; known on 2013-09-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-09-23.
-
Scott, of Slate Star Codex, will land his residency ( 72% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by torekp on 2013-03-01; known on 2013-06-01; judged right by simplicio on 2013-03-11.
-
Gwern has dissociative identity disorder and the identity of his split personality is Yvain. ( 0% confidence; 28 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2020-01-01.
-
Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
-
Conditional on success in the ISS docking, the first two SpaceX resupply missions will succeed —Sketerpot ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2013-07-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-07-01.
-
No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020. ( 74% confidence; 20 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
-
Initial shipments (0-30 days after launch day) of iPhone 5 will not have a model with over 512 MB RAM ( 50% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-03-21; known on 2013-08-08; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-12.
-
The NDE out of body consciousness experiment by Dr Parnia will be entirely negative ( 70% confidence; 10 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Adam on 2008-09-22; known on 2013-04-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-11-14.
-
HPMoR: Quirrell killed the original Voldemort and took his position. ( 4% confidence; 19 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-07-31; known on 2014-07-31; judged wrong by player_03 on 2015-03-16.
-
Google won't offer high speed internet in more than 3 cities by Jan 1 2016 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-07.
-
Marissa Meyer will quit as Yahoo's CEO in less than 4 years ( 47% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-24; known on 2016-07-24; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-24.
-
Facebook will fall below it's offering price ($38) next week ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-19; known on 2012-05-26; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-05-21.
-
Eliezer Yudkowsky retracts or significantly edits one of the posts in the quantum physics sequence in the next two years. ( 5% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2012-05-03; known on 2014-05-03; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-05-04.
-
Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years. ( 9% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-05-01; known on 2022-05-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2022-05-01.
-
Planetary Resources won't be mining asteroids by 2020 ( 84% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
-
HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is behind Hermione Draco accident (attempted murder) ( 82% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-18; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by player_03 on 2015-02-22.
-
HP MoR: Severus Snape is behind Hermione Draco accident (attempted murder) ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ami on 2012-04-18; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
-
iphone 5 won't have significantly different form factor than iphone 4S ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-14; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-09-13.
-
HP MoR: MoR will win a Hugo for Best Novel 2013-2017 ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-13; known on 2017-09-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-04-29.
-
HP MoR: The intermittent glitch in the Marauder's Map is people appearing in multiple places simultaneously due to use of Time Turners. ( 42% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by tadrinth on 2012-04-12; known on 2014-04-12; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
-
HP MoR: The constant glitch in the Marauder's Map is Quirrel appearing under another name (eg. 'Tom Riddle') ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Unknowns on 2015-03-27.
-
HP MoR: The constant glitch in the Marauder's Map is the spirit of Voldemort or Riddle ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Afforess on 2015-08-17.
-
HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be invoke the Imperius-debts of other Wizengamot members ( 18% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
-
HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be make Dumbledore turn himself in to Lucius in exchange for Hermione's freedom ( 31% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-03-28.
-
HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be threaten to destroy Azkaban ( 5% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged right by Grognor on 2012-03-28.
-
HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be reveal the truth about Bellatrix's escape ( 1% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
-
HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be accept Hermione's imprisonment but order the Dementors to leave her alone ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
-
HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will involve destroying one of the Dementors ( 9% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
-
HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be using the Time-turner to affect Lucius in some way ( 10% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
-
HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be using the Time-turner to smuggle Hermione out under the Cloak ( 4% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
-
HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be ask for a trial by combat ( 2% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
-
HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be have Quirrel make Bella confess to the crime ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
-
HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be invoking Lucius's debt to whomever killed his supposed Imperiuser ( 35% confidence; 21 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged right by Grognor on 2012-03-28.
-
HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be nothing (failure) ( 6% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
-
HP MoR: Nobody in the LW discussion thread will predict Harry's actual attempted solution (regardless of whether it fails). ( 25% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
-
HP MoR: HPMOR will update at least twice in 2012 ( 95% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Isaac on 2012-03-16.
-
HP MoR: ch 81: Harry's solution will be to set his hair on fire and run around in circles, screaming. ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
-
The model predicts that by 2012, almost half of the 50 states would vote against a marriage ban, including several states that had previously voted to ban it. —Nate Silver ( 44% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2012-01-31.
-
General AI will not be built by 2013 ( 97% confidence; 19 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
-
Julian Assange will not be convicted in Sweden of charges related to August 2010 ( 73% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-03; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.
-
No contact with intelligent aliens be made in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 31 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
-
MoR: ch 78 will mention Amanda Knox ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-20; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-03-20.
-
Ecuador to be paid 3.6bn USD to not develop its oil reserves & preserve its rainforest. ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-08-17.
-
Steve Ballmer will be CEO of Microsoft at the end of 2012 ( 78% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by faws on 2011-12-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by faws on 2013-01-01.
-
A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020. ( 21% confidence; 21 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by ceterisparibus on 2011-11-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
-
Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070 ( 22% confidence; 12 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-04; known on 2070-01-01.
-
Greece will leave the Euro currency and return to the “Drachme” latest by mid 2012. ( 20% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by herb on 2011-11-29; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by Michael Stevens on 2012-07-01.
-
The US$ will touch parity with the Euro (1€=1US$) before the end of 2012 ( 33% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by herb on 2011-11-20; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-31.
-
The oldest living person on 2020-01-01 will be at least 130 years old. ( 0% confidence; 15 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
-
The Singularity will occur by 2050. ( 34% confidence; 27 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by michaelanissimov on 2011-11-15; known on 2050-01-01.
-
“Silvio Berlusconi to announce his resignation before midnight ET 30 Nov 2011” —Intrade ( 67% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12.
-
Google+ will surpass Facebook in 2013 (in number of users and level of interaction) ( 16% confidence; 27 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by sameganegie on 2011-11-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2014-01-01.
-
United States Facebook user base will fall under 100,000,000 users by December 31, 2013. ( 28% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Joe Craig on 2011-11-04; known on 2012-12-16; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-02-24.
-
Sweden will qualify for Euro 2012 as best runner up ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-10-08; known on 2011-10-12; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-10-11.
-
'I predict…a major earthquake, magnitude seven or more will happen within twenty kilometers of a line from nagano city, nagano to matsudo, chiba' ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2011-10-13; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-13.
-
Harold Camping: “the whole world…will be annihilated together with the whole physical world” ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2011-10-22; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-10-22.
-
LW: Goetz's mugging post will be <= -7 in 1 month. ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-11-04; judged right by gwern on 2011-11-04.
-
There will be no noticeable disruption of financial services offered by the New York Stock Exchange on October 10th. ( 81% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Gedusa on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-10-11; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11.
-
Vettel to win f1 championship ( 97% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Laurablack on 2011-09-26; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-30.
-
Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 3 months. ( 46% confidence; 46 wagers; 39 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-22.
-
US Supercommittee to publish >=$1.5t deficit reduction by midnight 23 November 2011 ( 36% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-19; known on 2011-11-24; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-22.
-
SpaceX to successfully dock with the ISS by January 1, 2013 ( 75% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-19; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-05-25.
-
A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021 ( 29% confidence; 21 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-11; known on 2021-09-10; judged wrong by muflax on 2021-09-10.
-
A professional athlete will not voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041. ( 38% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-11; known on 2041-01-01.
-
HP MoR: Eliezer will publish ch78 before 7PM PST 13 September 2011 ( 47% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-09; known on 2011-09-13; judged wrong by fergus on 2011-09-13.
-
GJP: Kim Jong-Il or his designated successor to be in charge of North Korea as of December 31, 2012 ( 86% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.
-
No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests) ( 82% confidence; 32 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
-
The current criteria for awarding the “Poseidon award” offered by the seastead insitute, will be met by someone by 2015. ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Konkvistador on 2011-08-30; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by a0c4a123f7 on 2016-01-01.
-
The ISS will continue to have crew continuously through the end of November ( 83% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-30; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-01.
-
“USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran by 30 Sep 2011” —Intrade ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2011-10-10; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-10.
-
“Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 16% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
-
A 1MW cold-fusion reactor will NOT be demonstrated in October this year. ( 93% confidence; 18 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by scav on 2011-07-28; known on 2011-10-31; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-11-03.
-
the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. —S. Jay Olshansky ( 7% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-29; known on 2100-01-01.
-
Integer factoring in polynomial time, revealed by 2020 —Dick Lipton ( 9% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
-
P=NP, and proven by 12 December 2012 —Dick Lipton ( 0% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2012-12-12; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-12.
-
P!=NP, and proven by 2040 —Ken ( 44% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2041-01-01.
-
“Polygamy is granted legal status in the US.” ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-22; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
Greece Will be Bankrupt within 6 months from today ( 26% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by niekjetten on 2011-06-18; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by procran on 2011-12-01.
-
“the entire universe and planet Earth will be destroyed forever.” —Haubert/Brown ( 0% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-08; known on 2011-10-22; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-22.
-
The Irish Central Bank has forecast that the Irish economy will contract by almost 7% this year. It predicts that the downturn in activity is set to continue next year with a further contraction of 3%. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2011-11-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-01.
-
“This recession is going to last a lot longer than the one in the 1970s. I don't see any major bull move in commodities in the next several years.” —Bill Gary ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-09; known on 2013-03-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-03-31.
-
Mubarak will cease to be Egypt's President by 2012. ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-02-11.
-
“The U.S Department of Transportation Bureau of Transportation Statistics (www.bts.gov) will report a lower number of total highway vehicle miles traveled in 2010 than in 2005.” ( 42% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2012-01-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-05.
-
“By January 21, 2016, Facebook will not have the largest market share of social network users who log in at least once per day.” —John Feminella ( 47% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-25; known on 2016-01-21; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-21.
-
EU to dissolve by 2040. ( 39% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-25; known on 2040-01-01.
-
A Nobel prize in Physics will be awarded for unifying general relativity with quantum theory, with experimental evidence to back it up, and it won't be a string theory. ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by scav on 2011-01-11; known on 2020-10-31.
-
'Wind power will provide more actual electricity than nuclear power by 2021, 80%' —taw ( 34% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
-
'Kim Jong Il steps down or dies this year' —scav ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-19.