Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 65% | 67% | 73% | 88% | 91% | 80% | |
Sample Size | 1033 | 269 | 129 | 197 | 347 | 45 | 2020 |
Displaying all predictions made by themusicgod1. Filter by:
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2025: Less than 50% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges. ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-25; known on 2025-01-01.
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2025: Less than 20% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-25; known on 2025-01-01.
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Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ( 54% confidence; 20 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2012-02-18; known on 2032-02-17.
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Second Falklands War before 2035 ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-07; known on 2035-01-01.
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I will sign up for cryonics before 2020. ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2021-12-20.
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There will be a Google Summer of Code in 2017 ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-02-05; known on 2017-04-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-01.
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USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China. ( 41% confidence; 17 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-04; known on 2030-01-01.
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By 2020, a single-word term for additive fabrication technology will replace “3D printing” in the media. ( 53% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-02-03; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Leo on 2020-01-01.
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2050: Less than 5% of the global population lives in autonomous units with populations between 10 million and 1 billion. ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-02; known on 2050-01-01.
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By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ( 75% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-02-01; known on 2050-01-01.
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Natural languages no longer widely used for communication a century from now. (Conditional on non-extinction of Homo sapiens/non-occurrence of apocalypse.) ( 22% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-01; known on 2112-02-01.
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By 2025, a living multicellular organism will be printed using 3D printing technology. ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-01-31; known on 2025-01-01.
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The first functional, 3D printed television/monitor screen will be demonstrated by 2020. ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-01-30; known on 2020-01-01.
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A nuclear device (bomb, granade etc) with a strength of more than 1 kiloton will explode anywhere in the middle east within the next 5 years. ( 13% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by siscoking on 2012-01-29; known on 2017-01-29; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-30.
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Human whole-genome sequencing <=$100 by 2020. ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-28; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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Jaeggi 2008 (DNB transfer to Gf) will be formally retracted within 5 years ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-27; known on 2017-01-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-27.
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There will be working blueprints for a space elevator by 2017. ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by iconreforged on 2012-01-27; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-02-26.
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“Sovereign nation states will cease to exist and there will be one world government” —krozier93; BBC ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.
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The Sahara desert will be smaller by square kilometers in 2112 than 2012 ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.
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“Space elevators will make space travel cheap and easy” —Ahdok; BBC ( 34% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.
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“80% of the world will have gay marriage” —Paul, BBC ( 71% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.
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“There will only be three languages in the world – English, Spanish and Mandarin” —Bill Walker, BBC ( 2% confidence; 34 wagers; 24 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.
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Functioning commercial fusion by 2112 —Kennys_Heroes, BBC ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.
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“Nanorobots will flow around our body fixing cells, and will be able to record our memories” —Alister Brown, BBC ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.
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'Antarctica will be “open for business”' —Dev 2; BBC ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.
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“We will be able to control the weather” —mariebee_; BBC ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.
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SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021. ( 13% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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“computing systems powerful enough to manage a synapse-level simulation of a human brain in real time and then some” by 2092 —Charles Stross ( 69% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
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A human neural connectome will have been mapped by 2092 —Charles Stross ( 93% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
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Cultured mammalian meat cheaper than and as tasty as real meat by 2092 —Charles Stross ( 72% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
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Between 2012 and 2092, a new plague will kill 1M<x<1B people —Charles Stross ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
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Limb and organ (re)growth medically commercialized —Charles Stross ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
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Diabetes cured by 2092 —Charles Stross ( 80% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
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“The USA will not have been the dominant planetary superpower for at least fifty years. The EU won't have replaced it. China will be over the peak and probably a long way down the down-slope. The future belongs to someone else. Maybe Brazil or India?” —C ( 52% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
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“There will be 5-10 billion people.” —Charles Stross ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
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“Between 50% and 80% of them will be city-dwellers, and their average age will be rising.” ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
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By 2092, “20-40% of mammalian species, 20-60% of reptiles, 40-80% of amphibia, and maybe 50% or more of insects will be extinct.” —Charles Stross ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
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“HIV will be curable — either through better anti retroviral drugs or through gene therapy” by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 45% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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“Newspapers as we know them today will either not exist, or no longer print ink on paper” by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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“Half of Facebook, Google, Apple, Microsoft, Hewlett-Packard, Nokia, Sony and IBM will no longer exist” —Charles Stross ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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“gigabit wireless connection speeds will be the norm outside the home or office” by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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Genetically-modified-crop-caused famine by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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“Moore's Law will have played out by 2032” —Charles Stross ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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Cultured mammalian meat commercially available by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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All freshwater fisheries fed on processed jellyfish by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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“the trend towards urbanization continues” 2012-2032 —Charles Stross ( 85% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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Average global age higher in 2032 than 2012 —Charles Stross ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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“Cars will probably mostly be plug-in hybrids” in 2032 —Charles Stross ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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Automated driving infrastructure in First World; majority of new cars large/completely automated. —Charles Stross ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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Commercial fusion reactor online by 2063 —Charles Stross ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2063-01-01.
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Pilot net-energy fusion plant online by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 49% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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“oil will still be available and planes will still be burning it.” —Charles Stross ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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Total Chinese rice production to be less in 2032 than in 2012 ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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Climate change denial completely discredited – “about as respectable as Lysenkoism is today” —Charles Stross ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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Charles Stross will survive to 2032 ( 71% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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I will watch the 2013 movie 'Ender's Game' and like it, before 2019 ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-12; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
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Sometime in the next 5 years, a television network will make a build show that involves hackerspaces. ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by kiba on 2012-01-09; known on 2017-02-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-02-02.
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Square Inc. will be bought or merged within 5 years. ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-08; known on 2017-01-08; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-08.
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euro and us dollar will form a new currency within 10 years (both will be supplanted by a common currency shared by the USA and some current Euro members) ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by siscoking on 2012-01-04; known on 2022-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2022-01-17.
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There will be a driverless car available for purchase for less than $100,000 (inflation adjusted to Jan 1, 2012) in the US in 2018. ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Porejide on 2022-09-25.
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'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' —Kevin ( 14% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-01; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
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The James Webb Telescope will launch successfully by the end of 2019 ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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united Korea’s GDP > Japan in 2050 ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-31; known on 2050-01-01.
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united Korea's GDP > France, Germany, and Japan in 2050 ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-31; known on 2050-01-01.
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'I expect to see an impressive proto-AGI within the next 8 years' —Shane Legg ( 20% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-31; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2019-12-31.
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Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP. ( 86% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-29; known on 2025-12-29.
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In 10 years, mainland China's TI Corruption Perceptions Index will be lower (better) than the USA. ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2021-12-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2021-12-29.
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In 20 years, mainland China's TI Corruption Perceptions Index will be lower (better) than the USA. ( 22% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2031-12-28.
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The Yellowstone Supervolcano will have a magmatic eruption before 2023 ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-27; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB). ( 20% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-24; known on 2021-12-24; judged wrong by gwern on 2021-12-24.
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Within 5 years, 80% of the global population will own at least one mobile computing device (IBM “5 in 5” http://asmarterplanet.com/blog/2011/12/the-digital-divide-will-cease-to-exist.html) ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-12-20; known on 2016-12-20; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2018-02-25.
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Within 5 years, “mind reading” (BCI) will have progressed to the point where you can control an external device, e.g. place a call to a contact just by thinking it. (IBM's “5 in 5” http://asmarterplanet.com/blog/2011/12/the-next-5-in-5-mind-reading-is-no- ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-12-20; known on 2016-12-20; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2018-02-25.
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Within 5 years biometrics will displace passwords (IBM “5 in 5” http://asmarterplanet.com/blog/2011/12/the-next-5-in-5-you-will-never-need-a-password-again.html) ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-12-20; known on 2016-12-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-12-20.
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Globish(a minimalistic dialect of English used for international buisness) will be the de facto language of Europe by 2030 ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Keller on 2011-12-16; known on 2030-12-31.
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A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020. ( 21% confidence; 21 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by ceterisparibus on 2011-11-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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gwern.net will be up and accessible with content in 2020. ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-08; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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James Randi will live to be 93 years old. ( 44% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2011-12-05; known on 2021-08-07; judged wrong by gav on 2020-11-10.
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Logos01 will commit suicide in 5 years. ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-05; known on 2016-12-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-12-05.
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Alcor's Patient Trust Fund will be solvent in 2061. ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2061-01-01.
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Alcor's Patient Trust Fund will be solvent in 2041. ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2041-01-01.
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Alcor's Patient Trust Fund will be solvent in 2021. ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2021-01-02.
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The majority of Alcor cryopreservations as of 2011 will have maintained preservation continuity as of 2061. ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2061-01-01.
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The majority of Alcor cryopreservations as of 2011 will have maintained preservation continuity as of 2041. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2041-01-01.
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The majority of Alcor cryopreservations as of 2011 will have maintained preservation continuity as of 2021. ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
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Alcor will perform >=1 cryopreservations in 2060. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2061-01-01.
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Alcor will perform >=1 cryopreservations in 2040. ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2041-01-01.
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Alcor will perform >=1 cryopreservations in 2020. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by gav on 2020-11-10.
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Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070 ( 22% confidence; 12 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-04; known on 2070-01-01.
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Jimmy Wales and/or the WMF and/or any of its employees will be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize within 34 years. ( 24% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2045-12-04.
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North Korea will be wealthier than Afghanistan in 2061. —Scott Sumner ( 73% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-03; known on 2061-01-01.
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Between now and 2022, a religion, subsect, or religious movement will be founded and grow to over 10,000 followers that has explicit ties to Judaism/Christianity/Islam, but rejects the omnipotence of God. ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2011-12-03; known on 2022-01-01.
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The singularity will occur by the year 2070 ( 45% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pleeppleep on 2011-12-02; known on 2070-01-01.
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Carrie Fisher will die before Harrison Ford. ( 46% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-28; known on 2040-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-12-28.
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By 2035, the Voynich Manuscript will be determined to be written in an archaic form of a language or dialect currently spoken in Italy. ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-24; known on 2035-01-01.
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No open source Minecraft client before 2023 ( 57% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-22; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2023-01-01.
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Open source MineCraft client by 2021 ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2021-01-01.
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Open source MineCraft client by 2017 ( 27% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-22; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2017-01-13.
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“Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150.” -lukeprog ( 66% confidence; 13 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20; known on 2150-01-01.
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Caffeine will be an illegal substance … in 60 countries by 2027. ( 4% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2027-01-01.
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Will Iran's regime will end? ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by New on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-11-19; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-11-19.